[Alex-the-Alex]

Sitting on the sidelines on this one, as I have more to learn than contribute. Just wanted to say it's good to see you string 5 paragraphs together Sean - must be a sign of some improvement!

I'm just back from Canada and my climbing partner had just finished "Barkskins" which is an epic novel covering multiple generations of colonialism in Canada, from the early settlers right through to present day, tracking the lives of various offspring and first nations peoples, with a strong theme of logging, plunder, climate destruction - all under the lens of the time - land improvement, civilisation, progress.  Interesting that the Scots were portrayed as ransacking and barbarous, cut-throat even. I knew that there was some level of the "oppressed becoming the oppressor", I understand many of the early Scottish colonists were victims of the clearances (also not taught in history...).

Without dragging the debate down too much to settle a point (which may or may not be valid...) but is it fair to call it "British" exceptionalism?  I know Glasgow was the second city of the Empire and all that, but I don't think Scotland is quite sucked under the same spell of English exceptionalism as Scotland is. Gavin Esler puts in much better than me in his book, How Britain Ends, but I do feel this is an English affliction that gave rise to Brexit - mainly through lacking a clear sense of national identity, not being reconciled with these issues of lost empire and not having robust local/regional democracy.

Ok....jumped from the sidelines there. I'll scurry back off to the bench now. Continue....

Similarly following this with interest but little to offer. Your post though made me think of Neal Ascherson's Stone Voices. I dont know how his credentials as a historian stand up, but i remember it being a great example of the multitude of stories and narratives that make up a national identity. And in this case, how Scotland as victim is just one (very succesful) narrative among others. 

"Broken faimilies in launs we've hairriet
Will curse 'Scotlan the Brave' nae mair, nae mair"

All this discussion makes me despair at how much of our world is built on exploitation in some form or other. Imperialism at the most obvious end of the scale. Im not sure I share your confidence Wellsy that it isnt programmed into the human condition..

[TobyD]

Just to drag the thread back to contemporary politics,  is Truss a) a maverick who will deliver the rocket of economic growth which will solve all the UK's ills  b) a dangerous halfwit who says she's prepared to be unpopular,  which is the only thing she's right about c) meh.


I strongly suspect they've focus grouped the shit out of the unpopular line, and it will do her more good than harm. I think that she might be awful at speeches but knows exactly what she's doing,  but it's hard to see how cutting taxes is remotely sensible. 

[Wellsy]

She's a complete fuckwit but cutting taxes is usually quite popular

[petejh]

Just to drag the thread back to contemporary politics,  is Truss a) a maverick who will deliver the rocket of economic growth which will solve all the UK's ills  b) a dangerous halfwit who says she's prepared to be unpopular,  which is the only thing she's right about c) meh.


I strongly suspect they've focus grouped the shit out of the unpopular line, and it will do her more good than harm. I think that she might be awful at speeches but knows exactly what she's doing,  but it's hard to see how cutting taxes is remotely sensible.

The markets will be the judge of that, starting on Friday.
But rockets of economic growth are not expected in the skies above any western country this year or next. The Fed has basically told everyone, without telling everyone, that it expects the US to enter recession imminently. The EU and UK likewise. It’s just a matter of time.

We get to judge a few years from now.

Agree with you that Truss’s policies seem destined to crash into the wall of economic reality. But *Kwasi’s Kwartang's an intelligent bloke, maybe he’ll pull a rabbit out the hat.


Some here might be interested in reading his book on the legacies of empire, might surprise some of those UKB readership more prone to knee-jerk assumptions: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/30/ghosts-of-empire-what-kwasi-kwartengs-book-tells-us-about-him

[Oldmanmatt]

Just to drag the thread back to contemporary politics,  is Truss a) a maverick who will deliver the rocket of economic growth which will solve all the UK's ills  b) a dangerous halfwit who says she's prepared to be unpopular,  which is the only thing she's right about c) meh.


I strongly suspect they've focus grouped the shit out of the unpopular line, and it will do her more good than harm. I think that she might be awful at speeches but knows exactly what she's doing,  but it's hard to see how cutting taxes is remotely sensible.

The markets will be the judge of that, starting on Friday.
But rockets of economic growth are not expected in the skies above any western country this year or next. The Fed has basically told everyone, without telling everyone, that it expects the US to enter recession imminently. The EU and UK likewise. It’s just a matter of time.

We get to judge a few years from now.

Agree with you that Truss’s policies seem destined to crash into the wall of economic reality. But Kwasi’s an intelligent bloke, maybe he’ll pull a rabbit out the hat.

I think your knowledge here far outstrips mine, but I do wonder if it might work for her. Of the places I’ve lived, over the decades, those with lenient income tax regimes have always seemed the more prosperous.  Often much more expensive places to live, mind you as things like VAT or government “fees” are much higher (though they seem to hit higher incomes harder).

Also, I wonder if under the circumstances, anything is worth a punt. Whatever happens, we’re in for a painful few years.

[petejh]

My layperson's understanding (Sean and others will have far better understanding) is that both high and low income tax regimes can provide conditions for a prosperous society. IMO much of the difference seems to come down to political ideology around size and function of state. How that prosperity is divided out between the poorest and richest is another question. I'm sure there'll be stats that show inequality level of x is linked to tax regimes of y. Endless hole.

But the essential ingredients in either high or low tax regime are productivity and economic growth, which are both lacking in the UK and much of the west currently (productivity has been low in UK for a long time).

Truss is gambling that her policies will spark growth*. The question I think is timescale - because due to forces larger than any government policy there is going to be very little if any growth for the UK, EU or the US for the next 6 months, and possibly the next 12-24 months. We may tip into a severe recession depending on how events play out, but definitely a mild recession. Will she manage to face down the naysayers while we're in a recession? She'll need to if she wants to give her policies time to create conditions of growth, that's if they actually do work.


* my theory on why she's keen to expand north sea exploration and production, and fracking, is it has nothing to do with energy security - because the products will be too little and arrive too late to alter the current market - and everything to do with economic growth through exporting energy fuels.

[Nigel]

* my theory on why she's keen to expand north sea exploration and production, and fracking, is it has nothing to do with energy security - because the products will be too little and arrive too late to alter the current market - and everything to do with economic growth through exporting energy fuels.

Just on this one thing, if your theory is correct, isn't this a risky strategy in the light of the mooted Scottish independence vote next year? In 2014 the argument that declining North Sea revenues meant that Scotland would struggle to stand on its own two feet financially carried a lot of weight for unionist side. If the theory is now that in 2022 North Sea revenues are going to grow the entire UK economy, then that wicket becomes very sticky indeed surely?

[petejh]

I think it's widely believed her policies are risky, yes.

On the hypocrisy point - well I'm shocked such a thing could happen in politics!

[Fultonius]

I think it's widely believed her policies are risky, yes.

On the hypocrisy point - well I'm shocked such a thing could happen in politics!

It has been said that Truss is even more of an SNP / Indy asset than Boris was!  That along with our new king might just push things more that way. https://www.businessinsider.com/liz-truss-king-charles-iii-could-end-the-united-kingdom-2022-9?r=US&IR=T (not the most convincing article, but it sets the scene).

I suspect the only way to save the UK for those who wish to do so, is to proceed with major reforms of Westminster (maybe an English government, plus a UK assembly?) and a proper modern written constitution.

[TobyD]

My layperson's understanding (Sean and others will have far better understanding) is that both high and low income tax regimes can provide conditions for a prosperous society. IMO much of the difference seems to come down to political ideology around size and function of state. How that prosperity is divided out between the poorest and richest is another question. I'm sure there'll be stats that show inequality level of x is linked to tax regimes of y. Endless hole.

But the essential ingredients in either high or low tax regime are productivity and economic growth, which are both lacking in the UK and much of the west currently (productivity has been low in UK for a long time).

Truss is gambling that her policies will spark growth*. The question I think is timescale - because due to forces larger than any government policy there is going to be very little if any growth for the UK, EU or the US for the next 6 months, and possibly the next 12-24 months. We may tip into a severe recession depending on how events play out, but definitely a mild recession. Will she manage to face down the naysayers while we're in a recession? She'll need to if she wants to give her policies time to create conditions of growth, that's if they actually do work.


* my theory on why she's keen to expand north sea exploration and production, and fracking, is it has nothing to do with energy security - because the products will be too little and arrive too late to alter the current market - and everything to do with economic growth through exporting energy fuels.

I think I largely agree, her plans could work, but, I've seen several articles by geologists as well as the one by the Cuadrilla founder in the Guardian saying that fracking in the UK just isn't going to be economically viable. Even if it was, wouldn't it be years before the country started reaping the benefits?

There are only so many billions that any country can borrow before they become an economic basket case.

[SA Chris]

Just when you thought you couldn't get more annoyed by JRM, watch him blunder through this, then get torched by Milliband

[Will Hunt]

Reminds me of this.

[TobyD]

Ed Miliband is a great parliamentary performer, unfortunately he often tends to end up sounding supercilious in media interviews.  He's clearly extremely intelligent but unfortunately modern politics doesn't reward that.
The right wing of the Conservative party's devotion to fracking confuses me. It is as though they think it's the new north sea oil, and it'll bring the same boom as that did in the 1980s. Whilst that's possible,  it doesn't seem remotely likely, and the boom time would be many years in the future,  rather than being a plan for economic growth in the medium term. 

[SA Chris]

Indeed, and as EM points out, unless there is a radical reform in the pricing approach (see other thread) the price will be fixed against international rates, so no direct benefit to consumer, just more money in producer's pockets.

[Moo]

I just can’t believe they’re seriously trying to push fracking projects through given the dire level of public support. It’s an industry which is rotten to the core and any reported economic uplifts will end up pailing in significance compared with the environmental and safety concerns.

[danm]

It's such a bad idea that I can't help but think it is being used as a distraction ploy.

[James Malloch]

Does anyone know if the tax cuts put forward today will have to go to a commons vote? Hard to see how red wall conservatives could back them…

[spidermonkey09]

Agree with you that Truss’s policies seem destined to crash into the wall of economic reality. But *Kwasi’s Kwartang's an intelligent bloke, maybe he’ll pull a rabbit out the hat.

Some here might be interested in reading his book on the legacies of empire, might surprise some of those UKB readership more prone to knee-jerk assumptions: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/30/ghosts-of-empire-what-kwasi-kwartengs-book-tells-us-about-him

Kwarteng is indeed a smart man, but like Truss he's also an ideologue and its hard to see how those two go together sometimes. This (mini)Budget doesn't make a lot of sense to me on any level. If it does work it won't show the benefits for several years. If it doesn't you've crashed the (undeserved) Tory reputation for economic competence.

Fair to ask what the headlines would be tomorrow if a Labour govt had just borrowed this much with so little evidence, to the extent that the markets have been a bit spooked. As it is there'll just be headlines about the slashing of stamp duty for first time buyers for houses up to £425k (they must know different first time buyers to me)

[petejh]

Just on this: ''If it does work it won't show the benefits for several years''.

I don't understand your point - what in your view is an alternative, which if it did work, would show the benefits more quickly (than several years)?


On the riskiness I agree.

[spidermonkey09]

Just on this: ''If it does work it won't show the benefits for several years''.

I don't understand your point - what in your view is an alternative, which if it did work, would show the benefits more quickly (than several years)?

Sorry; I was referring to the fact that theres an election due in 18 months, so there is very unlikely to be anything tangible to show the electorate as evidence that this policy will be working by then. Politically, it feels like the better option would have been something a bit harder for Labour to counter than this.

Agree that there are few options which would show benefits in the next 18 months; hence why if I was a Tory policymaker I would focus on making sure that your voter base felt supported over the next 18 months, even if that necessitated lots of borrowing, on the basis that its not an easy attack line for Labour to bang on about fiscal responsibility (unfair as this is imo). I think Truss and Kwarteng's free market ideology has blinded them to the politics of it a bit.

[petejh]

Politically I agree with you. But then politics is why nothing ever gets done. It's a totally shite game of nobody moves nobody gets hurt. I can't stand it, or rather I can't stand the people who choose to play it.

[spidermonkey09]

Politically I agree with you. But then politics is why nothing ever gets done. It's a totally shite game of nobody moves nobody gets hurt. I can't stand it, or rather I can't stand the people who choose to play it.

I sort of agree...but I think there is the question of timing. It would be a lot more honest to say, call an election on the basis of being a low tax, high growth party and if they win they have a mandate for four years of that policy. The fact they didn't run on that last time is on the Tory party.

[Durbs]

Sorry; I was referring to the fact that theres an election due in 18 months, so there is very unlikely to be anything tangible to show the electorate as evidence that this policy will be working by then.

Also is a very easy "Labour will put up taxes" starting point if they've just cut them...

[Wellsy]

Well the markets seem to be, uh

Displeased. Pound is crashing a bit and the prospect is grim. Interest rates predicted to go over 5% by JP Morgan and Chase

[Oldmanmatt]

Well the markets seem to be, uh

Displeased. Pound is crashing a bit and the prospect is grim. Interest rates predicted to go over 5% by JP Morgan and Chase

Over the last month/6 weeks, since signing my contract, my salary (in AED) has gone up by more than a month’s pay in value remitted to the UK. Frankly, the trend over the last decade has been very much in that direction though.