[Will Hunt]

I was a bit gutted when Johnson resigned. I'd hoped he might cling on longer and sink deeper into corruption and scandal in ever more desperate attempts to stay in power, further damaging his and his party's reputation. Liz Truss gives me hope for the future of the Conservatives on the opposition benches.

[TobyD]

This piece is a couple of days old now, but I think pretty much on the money. The author is well connected in the Conservative party and about as level headed as Spectator columnists get (which might be damning with faint praise). https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/13/tory-mps-focused-who-they-do-not-want-leader-rishi-sunak-liz-truss?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

[Offwidth]

I'm pleased to see Katy as a regular in the Guardian team.

Yes she misses the electoral maths that keeps Sunak out of the last two. Tugendhat etc al might not want him there  but how would they achieve it?

I'm not going to cry if the tories shoot themselves in the foot. The deranged and incredibly wooden Truss would be an utter disaster as tory leader and gift the election to the opposition. Sunak would be more electable as a PM but much less likely to past the last hurdle of the lunatic fringe that is the tory membership (against Truss or Mordaunt). Even if he does win  the leadership contest he is still deeply personaly and collectively wounded: the sleeze is dead, long live the sleeze, by his own actions and his Boris cabinet membership.

[edshakey]

The same lot helped to install Johnson to fulfil their Brexit dreams, it beggars belief that they think that their judgment is going to result in a better bet this time.

Arguably their judgement resulted in an ideal candidate last time, and Truss could be exactly what they need to keep pushing the policies Johnson was keen on, without probably a bit less of the blatant lying. After all, their Brexit dreams were fairly well fulfilled.

Let's not forget that while Johnson lost the support of many MPs, he still had plenty on board. Not enough to govern, but enough to indicate that the next replacement need not be the Anti-Boris, just a bit of a different look.

[seankenny]

Their ascent to power will do nothing for the average BME person in this country.  In most cases it will make life worse.

Although I get where this statement is coming from, I don’t agree with it. Britain’s ethnic minorities are hugely varied and I have met plenty of Asian Tories who love strong leaders, making money and looking out for No 1 (and probably No 1’s extended family). I mean, this is basically Harrow and NW London! Those people won’t see themselves as having much in common with an Afro-Careibean family in Birmingham and don’t get me started on anti-Muslim views amongst non-Muslim British Asians.

So whilst maybe, on average, the Tories are bad news for black and Asian Brits, lots of high achieving and well-off people from those communities don’t see themselves as average (and their academic and professional achievements back this up). This is a point that many white left-wingers really need to bear in mind.

[BrutusTheBear]

I did quantify with average so not really sure what you're getting at here SK.

[seankenny]

What I’m getting at is that white left wingers are perhaps a touch too sanguine about ethnic voters and that viewing them as a block is a tendency we should guard against.

[BrutusTheBear]

What I’m getting at is that white left wingers are perhaps a touch too sanguine about ethnic voters and that viewing them as a block is a tendency we should guard against.

That's not what I did though is it?

[seankenny]

Well, whatever. My point still stands, take a look at US Democrats for the end point of this approach which I fear is also quite common amongst the U.K. left too.

[BrutusTheBear]

Well, whatever. My point still stands, take a look at US Democrats for the end point of this approach which I fear is also quite common amongst the U.K. left too.

Are we basing arguments on fears or facts then SK?

[seankenny]

There is a well-noted drift away from voting Labour amongst particular ethnic groups in the U.K. and I’m fairly convinced that a lot of left wingers overestimate the homogeneity that lies behind the phrase “BME voters”. Refusal to consider this has already been a vulnerability for Labour and will probably be so again.

[BrutusTheBear]

'Well noted' ,'I'm fairly convinced'...  Not very scientific.
I'm fairly convinced it has something to do with other things but I'd want to back up what I've said with some information first.  Any studies or research to back up what your saying SK?

[TobyD]

The same lot helped to install Johnson to fulfil their Brexit dreams, it beggars belief that they think that their judgment is going to result in a better bet this time.

Arguably their judgement resulted in an ideal candidate last time, and Truss could be exactly what they need to keep pushing the policies Johnson was keen on, without probably a bit less of the blatant lying. After all, their Brexit dreams were fairly well fulfilled.

Let's not forget that while Johnson lost the support of many MPs, he still had plenty on board. Not enough to govern, but enough to indicate that the next replacement need not be the Anti-Boris, just a bit of a different look.

Yes I totally agree with you.

[BrutusTheBear]

Here's a fact about African and Caribbean communities from when the 'left' were in charge (partially).

A study by the Runnymede Trust earlier this year showed a huge swing towards Labour from African and Caribbean communities at the 2017 general election, after decades of decline in successive elections. It showed African support running at 82 percent and Caribbean support at 87 percent.

[TobyD]

'Well noted' ,'I'm fairly convinced'...  Not very scientific.
I'm fairly convinced it has something to do with other things but I'd want to back up what I've said with some information first.  Any studies or research to back up what your saying SK?

There must be, especially in the US, it's widely acknowledged phenomenon that many Hispanic voters go Republican in the states due to various issues, not least a residual mistrust of anything left wing if they have emigrated from S American countries which have been screwed up by a warped version of Communism.
The reasons in the UK are very different but the outcome the same. BtB, I agree with your general point that on average Conservative government is bad for BAME communities, it's just that the term covers too wide and varied a population for that to be that useful as different communities will have very different priorities, but I'm sure you know that better than I.

[seankenny]

By left I mean the actual left of centre, not what the far left calls left, which basically means themselves. I’m talking about the whole of the Labour movement not just the hard left.

Here’s some survey results from the Carnegie Endowment on British Indian attitudes, which highlights changes in voting amongst British Hindus:


“The data show that while a plurality of British Indians self-identifies with the liberal end of the political spectrum and demonstrates a preference for the opposition Labour Party over the incumbent Conservative Party, their support for Labour appears to have eroded in recent years.”

https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/11/18/britain-s-new-swing-voters-survey-of-british-indian-attitudes-pub-85784

I regard ethnic minority voters as absolutely a potential growth area for the Conservatives and rue the simplistic association of Conservatism with racism and colonialism. White people banging on about colonialism to people whose grandparents were caught up in Partition seems somewhat tone deaf.

[BrutusTheBear]

Thanks SK a more constructive response and I can see a bit more of where your thinking is coming from.  I have had a quick skim of the study/report, interesting to note a steady decline in British Indians voting intention for Labour from 2015 to last year (no Starmer up tick), a decline in voting intention for Conservative and a steady increase in voting intention for 'others'.  Where are the 'others' going would be a good question...Lib Dems? Green? SNP? would be interesting to know.

Knowing the complexities of different communities, their historical relationships with the British State and a less generalised and less assumption based approach to BAME politics is I guess what you're talking about.  I am with you here if that's the case.

Of course we have some heavily disenfranchised communities which the left (your broad definition applies here) would tend to focus on.  My assumption is that you have an interest in how to engage and win votes from other perhaps less disenfranchised communities that don't associate themselves with this stereotype  and are put off by it?

[slab_happy]

 He is nothing if not consistent:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/16/johnson-skips-emergency-cobra-meeting-as-experts-warn-thousands-may-die-in-uk-heatwave

[TobyD]

He is nothing if not consistent:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/16/johnson-skips-emergency-cobra-meeting-as-experts-warn-thousands-may-die-in-uk-heatwave

.

Taking the piss.

[slab_happy]

Anyway Dominic Raab thinks we should be "resilient enough" to "enjoy" the impending heatwave:

https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/weather-today-heatwave-met-office-uk-live-b2124974.html

Thanks, Dom, I'm sure elderly and medically fragile people stuck in top-floor flats will really be embracing that message!

For context, I have friends in Australia and the US who have looked at the predicted UK temps for Monday and Tuesday and gone OH FUCK THAT'S NOT GOOD. I have a friend who grew up in Ahmednagar who's gone OH FUCK THAT'S NOT GOOD. This is legitimately dangerous stuff in a country where most of us don't have air-conditioning at home and our houses are built to keep heat in not out.

[TobyD]

Anyway Dominic Raab thinks we should be "resilient enough" to "enjoy" the impending heatwave:

As long as the sea isn't closed eh. Another one to chalk up on his personal list of foolish gaffes. 

[TobyD]

The Times has an eye popping statistic this morning; 48% of Tory members  age65+ think it was a mistake to remove Johnson...

With logic like that,  my money is on Truss, as the Johnson team will undermine the other candidates,  hoping that she's most likely to give Johnson a seat in the Lords in a year or two,  where he can hang out with all his dodgy Russian mates, who hes already put in there.

[Offwidth]

The polling always indicated Mordaunt or Truss would beat Sunak in the members' stage of the election. The party membership is even more toxic on average than the PCP (which is at it's worse ever). The Fail has been traducing Mordaunt all week... today we have outright dogwhistle stuff that she disobeyed Boris"s boycott and spoke to the leader of the Muslim Council of GB (no islamophobia in tory ranks.. oh no).

On Truss I spotted this today (her dishonestly talking down her relatively successful school) which is worth posting for posterity

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/18/liz-truss-roundhay-school-foreign-secretary-education

[Will Hunt]

Is it wrong to hope that Truss gets in on the grounds that she will look almost as incompetent as Johnson and present fair odds of a Tory GE defeat?

[Bonjoy]

Yes, because you'd be kidding yourself as a hedge against cognitive dissonance.