[galpinos]

Is everyone not reading too much into all this?

The Hartlepool Labour vote had massively dropped between 2017 and 2019, they would have lost in 2019 if the Brexit and Tory vote was combined and the turnout was poor. Obviously this is not a win for the Starmer era of the party but it's no reason to enact a scorched earth policy (thought the political cock up that was the reshuffle/Angela Rayner debacle seems there are some Corbyn-era traits Kier has decided are worth persevering with).

Re the Manchester region votes, Burnham is popular because he sells the "sticking up for GM" line very well, "if it's good enough for London, it's good enough for GM" etc with the buses as well as publicly trying to sort out the homelessness/housing issues. Having said that, he hasn't achieved that much. And to however thinks the Manchester council is pretty much all red is that we all want a socialist paradise, you may not realise that Sir Richard Leese, our beloved mayor, seems solely focussed on selling off council land to middle eastern and far eastern investors to build apartment blocks for investors that have a pitifully poor occupancy rate whilst building no affordable homes nor social housing whilst the numbers in sleeping bags under bridges is on the up. People are voting Labour, I'm assuming, for the same reason as me, is that my local councillor is working bloody hard to enact change.

Paul Dennet, however, is a very different kettle of fish, I grant you. A very impressive man who I believe very much has the good of the local people at the core of everything he does and very much a socialist. You can see a marked difference in how housing is tackled in Salford compared to Manchester. I would very much like Manchester to follow his vision but I doubt we will unfortunately.

Anyway, I'm rambling, but basically, people vote for different reasons in local elections than a GE, Kier's Labour did better than Corbyn's did in the council elections in 2017 so maybe the Corbynistas should stop crowing quite so loudly, Kier's brand of leadership has so far been pretty uninspiring and his political instinct looking questionable but lets give him and his team a chance for one GE* without trying to burn Labour to the ground for some cult run socialist ideal which the electorate told us they didn't want twice.

*I agree he needs to sort his shit out and how the pandemic is nominally getting under control they need to banging on about what their vision for Britain is, not just whinging about dodgy Boris.

[Oldmanmatt]

The vitriol that the Labour left feels towards the right of the party is everything to do with the active briefing, undermining and counter campaigning that took place esp. during general election campaigns.
Assume you know about this Nails?

And there it is.

These are not the reasons Labour has failed to achieve power.
Labour policies and personalities are simply not attractive to enough people.

It isn’t because the electorate are too right wing, either. The Tories only to took 43.6% of the vote. A significant majority of voters are “progressive” through to “centrist” and Labour could have easily won, had they appeared credible to the 7/8% middle ground (the ones you hate even more than your own moderates, in your own party, that you disparagingly refer to as “right” when they are anything but right wing).
The SNP excuse does not hold water, since they accounted for 3% of the vote.

Perhaps Labour should have supported the Proportional representation referendum a little better, I mean, they’d probably be in power now, in coalition with the Libs and Tory hegemony would be all but over.

Honestly, every time I hear these arguments rehashed, I reassure myself by looking back through as many prior GE results as I can stomach and it’s clear, that by vote %, progressive and moderate voters make a little more than 50% of the votes cast and sometimes a little more, in every election.

You want change? Scrap FTP. We’d be a true social democracy and probably always have been, if FTP wasn’t a thing.

However, YOU HAVE TO WIN A GE TO AFFECT CHANGE.

[Nigel]

Is everyone not reading too much into all this?

The Hartlepool Labour vote had massively dropped between 2017 and 2019, they would have lost in 2019 if the Brexit and Tory vote was combined and the turnout was poor.

That sentence is correct, but only so as far as it goes. If you go further back than 2017 then a different picture emerges.

From seat inception in 70's until 2010 - labour vote share consistently around 50%, with a slight tick upwards to around 60% (infamous Mandleson was the MP btw). Not much to see, as you might expect.

However in 2010 the labour vote dropped considerably, while both Tory and UKIP vote increased. In 2015 the UKIP vote increased again; they came a reasonably close second to Labour. If UKIP and Tory votes had been combined then, they would have won then too, by miles. This was pre-Brexit and pre-Corbyn. Post referendum in 2017 GE the UKIP vote collapsed, Tories ticked up, and Labour vote rocketed. 2019 was largely a repeat of the 2015 results but with the Brexit party in the place of UKIP.

It is shown most easily in the graph halfway down this page: https://electionresults.parliament.uk/election/2019-12-12/results/Location/Constituency/Hartlepool (can't find a way to link directly - anyone?).

Its n=1 for this one seat, but the general picture is one of gradual labour decline over a decade from 2005 to 2015, with a corresponding increase in the "anti-EU/Labour" vote, until a huge abberation result in 2017 in which Corbyn got back to early Blair-era levels, before it then switches back to the previous pattern. The Tory strategy to all this appears to have been to "combine" these anti-EU (or anti-London/ anti-globalistion/ insert your choice) votes by effectively becoming UKIP/Brexit party with respect to the EU. Labour have never had a good answer to this.

I would say its possible that 2017 was an aberration because it was one of the few elections that wasn't as much predicated on Brexit-like opinions.

Possible conclusion - the 2021 result in Hartlepool isn't a "hangover" from the Corbyn years. Its been on the cards for much longer than that. To be clear- you're correct Corbyn did loose votes in 2019, but from Blair levels to Milliband levels. I.e. nothing which hadn't already happened. In reality he actually reversed that direction of travel in 2017, but only briefly. Which is why the "I'm not Jeremy Corbyn" strategy is not exactly working for Starmer. He's just reverted things back to the long term mean, which with Brexit "settled" is actually now worse than ever. Being the architect of Labour's second ref strategy and parachuting a die-hard remainer to stand for the seat probably didn't help either?

If you look at the numbers in 2021, it may be even worse than that. Obviously byelections always have worse turnout, but Tory vote = 75% of total Tory+Brexit amount from 2019. Labour vote = c.50% of 2019 amount. So not only are Labour under Starmer not turning the so-called "white working class" over to them, they are actually losing their core vote as well.

I don't know what the answer is, but the strategy, if there is one, isn't working.

Of course, it could just be the vaccine bounce.

[TobyD]

 That's a good look at it Nigel, boringly, I think it's multi-causal. 2017 massively affected by May's awful campaign, and a protest vote when people couldn't see that we'd left the EU yet. Remember the party conference where all the letters fell off, and her slogan 'nothing has changed'.
The inexorable decline in the Labour vote is socio cultural change and in the reason why people vote, from class to culture, to oversimplify it a bit.

[Somebody's Fool]

2017. We respect the result of the referendum and will seek to negotiate a deal. Best results for Labour in England for 20 years. Corbyn actually got more votes in England than Blair did in 1997.

2019. We don’t respect the referendum and want to rerun it. Loss of 50 leave seats. Loads more, like Hartlepool, left in the balance.

The biggest problem for Labour now is that 400 odd of the 650 constituencies had leave majorities, because of how concentrated younger remainers are geographically, and a lot of leave voters won’t vote for Labour again.

Because we don’t respect the referendum result = we don’t respect you, and you can’t trust us.

[chris j]

I agree with Nigel, it is a long term shift (either of the electorate away from Labour or the other way round) rather than being purely Corbyn or Brexit, with the Brexit vote being a symptom of the same shift. In Hartlepool, I think (as with the Labour mayors elsewhere), the positive work of the Tees Valley mayor with support for Teeside Net Zero and similar projects will have had a local effect in favour of the Tories.

[TobyD]

Yes, it's nothing like as basic as SF depicts above.

Slightly more positively, I saw this on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/rosepoet/status/1390791674817912835?s=09

I'd be interested to know if this is bollocks, or actually reasonable. There doesn't appear to be any source given. It's a random tweet by a person I don't know at all, so chances are it's the former. ??

[Johnny Brown]

It certainly seems reasonable, but are you sure it's the right link?

[galpinos]

It certainly seems reasonable, but are you sure it's the right link?

JB, I'm assuming Toby means:

Cut out the triumphalist gloating, please.
If this were a general election
BBC House of Commons projection based on local election results
CON: 327 (-38)
LAB: 226 (+23)
LDM: 24 (+13)
OTH: 73 (+2)
A Tory majority of 4- compared to the 80 they have now.
We need to ditch FPTP.

[TobyD]

What a bloody awful lot of bullshit in the Queen's speech yesterday, irrespective of anything that's wrong with Labour.

Basically, mostly culture war crap in a flagrant attempt to preserve voters. Is trying to ban foie gras, fine universities etc really more important than any sort of a plan of social care? I'll answer that, no!

PS thanks Galpinos that's the tweet

[TobyD]

O,I forgot about the voter ID to further cement a massive conservative advantage. Voter fraud basically doesn't exist by impersonation at the ballot station.

[tomtom]

O,I forgot about the voter ID to further cement a massive conservative advantage. Voter fraud basically doesn't exist by impersonation at the ballot station.

I think this is a red herring / to give the opposition something to moan about then it will be withdrawn.

Can’t see the likes of David Davis etc.., going along with this.

But - who the fuck knows anymore!!

[TobyD]

O,I forgot about the voter ID to further cement a massive conservative advantage. Voter fraud basically doesn't exist by impersonation at the ballot station.

I think this is a red herring / to give the opposition something to moan about then it will be withdrawn.

Can’t see the likes of David Davis etc.., going along with this.

But - who the fuck knows anymore!!

I don't know... it's less worrying than the proposals to stop government decisions being challenged in court, but DD is, I think the most rebellious MP in parliament,  of any party so him disagreeing isn't a deal breaker.  It is obviously a mendacious act,  as Johnson disagrees with ID cards generally,  although he probably changes his mind about that every 5 minutes.  The proposals on immigration are appalling, as is the bill to recognise foreign qualifications.  The latter will lead to some very poorly qualified medical professionals working in the NHS.  I don't doubt that the medical training in some countries can be as good or better than here, but sometimes it is a lot worse as well. 

[sdm]

O,I forgot about the voter ID to further cement a massive conservative advantage. Voter fraud basically doesn't exist by impersonation at the ballot station.

I think this is a red herring / to give the opposition something to moan about then it will be withdrawn.

Can’t see the likes of David Davis etc.., going along with this.

This is deeply troubling. In-person voter fraud in this country is effectively nonexistent.

This legislation is pure gerrymandering; designed for the sole purpose of disenfranchising the demographics who are least likely to vote Conservative.

There's such a strong majority that a few dissenting voices within the party isn't enough to stop it. There's hardly anyone left in the parliamentary party with a conscience so I expect it will pass easily unless there's a legal challenge.

[tommytwotone]

So we're on for a by-election in Batley & Spen then...and I wasn't a million miles away:


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/12/jo-cox-sister-labour-batley-spen-byelection-kim-leadbeater


Interestingly we had a "personalised" letter from Kier yesterday surveying us on what was important to us in the area etc etc. I get the feeling that our little ward is going to be getting a lot of love from the Labour big hitters in the near future.

[IanP]

O,I forgot about the voter ID to further cement a massive conservative advantage. Voter fraud basically doesn't exist by impersonation at the ballot station.

I think this is a red herring / to give the opposition something to moan about then it will be withdrawn.

Can’t see the likes of David Davis etc.., going along with this.

This is deeply troubling. In-person voter fraud in this country is effectively nonexistent.

This legislation is pure gerrymandering; designed for the sole purpose of disenfranchising the demographics who are least likely to vote Conservative.

There's such a strong majority that a few dissenting voices within the party isn't enough to stop it. There's hardly anyone left in the parliamentary party with a conscience so I expect it will pass easily unless there's a legal challenge.

Not sure whether they will really go through with this but whichever way you look at it this is a terrible proposal which demonstrates the total lack of principles and deeply cynical attitude of this government.

[BrutusTheBear]

O,I forgot about the voter ID to further cement a massive conservative advantage. Voter fraud basically doesn't exist by impersonation at the ballot station.

This along with proposals to enforce 'freedom of speech' upon our universities and colleges are disturbing developments.
Presumably designed to create further division within our society, continued 'dog whistle' politics and stirring the 'culture war' pot.  There'll be strong student resistance for sure, could get messy.

[IanP]

O,I forgot about the voter ID to further cement a massive conservative advantage. Voter fraud basically doesn't exist by impersonation at the ballot station.

This along with proposals to enforce 'freedom of speech' upon our universities and colleges are disturbing developments.
Presumably designed to create further division within our society, continued 'dog whistle' politics and stirring the 'culture war' pot.

, while I probably don't share your views on how Labour on should best face its challenges I think most on the left and centre can agree that this is a really terrible government that is seemingly willing to do anything to entrench it's position in power.

[BrutusTheBear]

It's like 'A Hand Maids Tale' in real life, gently sliding into fascism.  I'm sure that there is a broad coalition of people that will resist this shit but 'they' are now in a position to push it through and have enough of the general public on message to be able to do so.  Scary times.

[TobyD]

O,I forgot about the voter ID to further cement a massive conservative advantage. Voter fraud basically doesn't exist by impersonation at the ballot station.

This along with proposals to enforce 'freedom of speech' upon our universities and colleges are disturbing developments.
Presumably designed to create further division within our society, continued 'dog whistle' politics and stirring the 'culture war' pot.  There'll be strong student resistance for sure, could get messy.

For once, I completely agree with you. What the fuck are they doing? Is this really more important than doing something about exams etc post covid? NO!

[TobyD]

It's like 'A Hand Maids Tale' in real life, gently sliding into fascism.  I'm sure that there is a broad coalition of people that will resist this shit but 'they' are now in a position to push it through and have enough of the general public on message to be able to do so.  Scary times.

Yup the bill to restrict protests will sort that out for them...

[tommytwotone]

But you could argue that public protest is effectively futile - in my lifetime the Poll Tax protests / riots were the only thing I've ever seen where "people power" won the day.

Whether it's the Iraq War, Student Fees, Austerity, or more recently BLM or Sarah Everard - the powers that be seem impervious to the need to recognise or react to strength of public opinion.

[sdm]

the powers that be seem impervious to the need to recognise or react to strength of public opinion.

They don't need to recognise or react to public opinion.

Even before this legislation, the electoral system was rigged so much in their favour that they knew they would get re-elected regardless.

This provides an additional buffer to cement their advantage for generations to come.

[TobyD]

But you could argue that public protest is effectively futile - in my lifetime the Poll Tax protests / riots were the only thing I've ever seen where "people power" won the day.

Whether it's the Iraq War, Student Fees, Austerity, or more recently BLM or Sarah Everard - the powers that be seem impervious to the need to recognise or react to strength of public opinion.

I'd argue that the Iraq war protests changed the way it is now seen to some extent, though they may not have directly influenced policy at the time.  It has occurred to me that what has made a significant difference to government policy in recent times is celebrity,  rather than public protest. Marcus Rashford on school meals,  Jamie Oliver on err school meals again,  various people on plastic bag charges etc etc.

[TobyD]

This is a powerful article,  probably the best description of the problems of Boris Johnson's tenure as PM that I've read. I'm afraid you'll have to have a times subscription to read it though:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/clock-is-ticking-on-johnsons-people-pleasing-knpsbffj8?shareToken=a54dbf9e3496df8d279ceda0c3f767d7