[Wellsy]

Yeah I didn't vote Labour locally, I voted Green. The Sheffield Labour Council is pretty rubbish but I'd vote Labour nationally.

I do think there is an issue where a lot of Labour voters basically don't want anyone who voted Tory to be on "their side" as it were. I.e they think Tory voters are scum. Unfortunately since Scotland went SNP Labour kind of needs Tory voters it appears... unless young people are suddenly going to start voting in large numbers and for Labour, which I'm not sure they would...

[TobyD]

Yeah I didn't vote Labour locally, I voted Green. The Sheffield Labour Council is pretty rubbish but I'd vote Labour nationally.

That's funny, that was exactly what I thought, and did. Sheffield could do with more Green councillors.

If anyone is interested in the significance of by-elections there is a great analysis and history on the most recent Politico podcast.

[TobyD]

Yeah I didn't vote Labour locally, I voted Green. The Sheffield Labour Council is pretty rubbish but I'd vote Labour nationally.

That's funny, that was exactly what I thought, and did. Sheffield could do with more Green councillors.

Although now I wonder about this decision,  just heard a really depressing vox pop on the radio where people blamed bad local services on Labour,  so voted in a conservative council.  Local services are awful,  because the government has spent a decade completely gutting them.

Perhaps Labour should have talked a lot more about this?

[Fultonius]

I agree,  I heard more than one focus group on a political podcast,  with several members who thought that  Corbyn was still in charge of the party.  You can't underestimate the level of apathy among a lot of people.

Jesus christ!

On a similar note, I read recently that among a SNP voting focus group, all of whom were cast iron SNP supporters, a significant proportion expressed outrage that Sturgeon might call for a referendum soon. One does wonder how they arrived at the decision to vote SNP in the first place. I'll see if I can find the link.

That's pretty easy  - there will be no referendum under Sturgeon. She's got no stomach for it.

[Falling Down]

There was quite an astute analysis I read on Twitter first thing this morning. That Labour's problem is that across a lot of the remainy Home Counties people are more economically right wing that they are socially liberal, whereas in the midlands and the north many people are more socially conservative than they are economically left wing.

That certainly chimes with my very limited bubble of largely Home Counties based colleagues at work.

I quite like the “two votes” system for the Mayoral election here in London.

[tomtom]

Some commentary that Labour has become London centric…

From my scan - in its urban/city strongholds it’s fared fairly well (London, Manchester, Liverpool (and Hull)) but taken a pummelling elsewhere…

In Wales the Labour vote has had a bounce from how they handled the pandemic. The problem for a party not in power is that they have to sell a dream… Boris/tories have fucked up so so much - BUT they have succeeded with the vaccinations which is a tangible (cause = effect) way many people have seen and personally experienced a way out of the COVID mess (especially older - more likely to vote - and vote Tory)

[BrutusTheBear]

Some of Y'all probably don't want to hear the resident leftie's perspective but maybe you should.
Apparently the competent are now in charge, if this is what competence is it's embarrassing.  The selection of the candidate for Hartlepool made by a special advisor who lost her seat as an MP was a complete failure to 'read the room', a non local who seems to have no idea what it is he would like to do should he gain the seat.  If you can bare to watch Owen Jones' recent documentary on Hartlepool, check out the interview with Dr Paul his responses to simple questions are shockingly bad, demostrating a complete lack of preparation and vision.
Likewise Sir Keir seems to have no clue himself
Leading up to the elections they seemed to think a visit to buy wallpaper from John Lewis would cut through.  Trying to push the Tory sleaze narrative whilst rolling out Mandy whom was forced to resign from government under dubious circumstances. 
The refusal to espouse any policies seems to be completely I affective.  I would suggest that a clear vision of what they are actually intending to do for the people needs to be consistently pounded out, particularly popular socialist policies that will directly benefit us.  I suspect instead we will have a further lurch to the right and a continuation of the bland characterless focus group informed politics we have seen up to now.  Sir Keir (untouched) pint in hand, with a 20ft high union jack as a backdrop, spouting a nonsense word salad about looking outwards and looking inwards from a changed party.  I despair.

[BrutusTheBear]

Ignore the above post Sir Keir is taking full responsibility by firing Angela Rayner.  Wtf are they playing at?.!

[TobyD]

.  I would suggest that a clear vision of what they are actually intending to do for the people needs to be consistently pounded out, particularly popular socialist policies that will directly benefit us.  I suspect instead we will have a further lurch to the right and a continuation of the bland characterless focus group informed politics we have seen up to now. 

I appreciate your analysis Brutus, but I'd strongly suggest that Socialism died in the twentieth century, and noone will vote for it today, or at least not in anywhere near enough numbers to matter. The Labour left have been in charge before this for more than half a decade, and produced precisely no success.

Most people who aren't interested in politics will just think Socialism or anything like this represents being unpatriotic, a Russian sympathiser and financially illiterate.

The conservative party have done very well getting elected with focus group policies. Idealogical purity will never fly, elections are won from the centre.

[BrutusTheBear]

Look at the results TD. Where there are more progressive candidates, as the Americans would put it, Labour have done well.  Check the results in RLB's constituency, an openly socialist MP. They parachuted in a remainer to stand in area that 70% voted to leave. Forensic! It's a shambles.
I think you're wrong about the centre ground, the success of Burnham and Dennett would suggest otherwise.  This statement from Dennett major of Salford, whom increased his majority, is spot on.

There is a path Labour can take which unites our traditional voters with young and new alike.

"It's a path which isn't ashamed of our party's radical roots, which taps into our history and tradition, which puts forward a progressive and dynamic vision for a new and inclusive economy of the future. It's a path in which socialism is at its core.

"The centre ground no longer exists as it once did. The public now expect us to pick a side and articulate a bold ambition and progressive future for all which tackles poverty, tackles inequality, placing the needs of working people and families at its core."

[tomtom]

Brutus - living in Manchester I’d say that Burnham - and the Labour council are pretty much centrist. No evidence of any Derek Hatton style policies (joke).

He kowtows to Westminster to get ££ for the Metro and health service devolution - but justifies that with a for the good of Manchester narrative. Every now and then he (appears to) stand up to Westminster about something or other. Most folk here seem to go with that.

The Salford Mayor is different - in a different area - with a much lower profile. TBH I know nothing about him or his policies.

[TobyD]

I really think that way lies only an archaic protest movement Brutus.  I think that Labour needs to change more fundamentally.  The conservatives win at the moment by being socially conservative but are increasingly economically at a point which,  if not liberal is certainly willing to borrow and spend.

All the talk of traditional voters, industrial heartland etc became irrelevant long ago. Its amazing how long it's taken for the Labour support in the north to be bulldozed, rather than that it's happened at all. If you think that Rebecca Long Bailey would be an electoral success you're dreaming.  There is no industrial working class of any size now, unfortunately the conservatives have realised that and harnessed it. I think that the other parties need to develop a response to it that's more fundamental than that they return to their roots. That way lies obscurity and failure. 

[BrutusTheBear]

The thing that stands out is when Burnham opposed Westminster aggressively in order to get what was best for the people of Manchester. He's the person that fired shots at Labour's London centric leadership. Agreed he's not a full on leftist but he defended his people vocally.  Dennett is showing the way look into him and what he does for Salford.  Also, Wales isn't down to COVID management but we must not have a narrative that suggests leftwards is successful must we?
TD you're ignoring the results and the absolute ineptitude of Starmer and his advisors. How do you explain it?

[tomtom]

Not ignoring anything - just not sure what he did wrong.

Manchester, Salford - easier to know your audience and how to sell yourself to them.

Labour nationally struggles with that. Perhaps it doesn’t know it’s audience any more - or (more likely) they’re trying to appeal to too many people
at once.

Part of this is also media. Local media here are all over Burnham - can’t even name a Tory counterpart… nationally we all know the Tory/Labour media is not that way…

[Yossarian]

I don’t think Starmer is inept at all. He has a bit of the Miliband robotic presentation which he could do with working on. But I think he’s done as well as anyone given the circumstances. And bearing in mind he’s up against a shape shifting force of personality still riding a Brexit wave who’s also borrowed a vast amount of money, paid loads of people’s wages for months, and taken the credit for vaccinating the whole nation.

I’d be up for some radical policies - I agree with Brutus on that. But if you can’t see that Burnham comes straight from the Blair mould - hardworking / listening / moderate - rather than reactionary / we know better than you then I give up. Burnham couldn’t work with Corbyn. And he opposed Miliband’s mansion tax because he knew it smacked of the politics of envy.

[tommytwotone]

Intriguing scenario here in West Yorkshire as Tracy Brabin (the one surviving Labour MP round here after the last GE bloodbath) is running for West Yorkshire mayor.

I assume if she wins, this will trigger a by-election, which at the moment The Tories would likely win.

If she loses the mayoral vote, I'm guessing she "just" goes back to being our MP still?

So, errrr, go Tracy? Or not?

[BrutusTheBear]

Not ignoring anything - just not sure what he did wrong.

Manchester, Salford - easier to know your audience and how to sell yourself to them.

Labour nationally struggles with that. Perhaps it doesn’t know it’s audience any more - or (more likely) they’re trying to appeal to too many people
at once.

Part of this is also media. Local media here are all over Burnham - can’t even name a Tory counterpart… nationally we all know the Tory/Labour media is not that way…

What he did wrong?  Not opposing, not vocally standing up for people, selection of the worst candidate possible for Hartlepool, ignoring the membership, abstaining, a human rights lawyer not opposing laws that impact on human rights, not calling for greater rewards for nurses and care workers, sacking the entire community organising team, trying to out Tory the Tories...  He's now followed this all up by sacking a very well connected Northern female MP (I'm not a fan of hers at all btw) and effectively picked a fight with the Northern section of the party.  He could've quietly shuffled in 6 months time, this is not forensic decision making.  He has sections of the party turning on him as we speak. 

Definitely, trying to appeal to too many people at once.. Start with the base, those that are dedicated will get out there and work for the cause.  He's alienated a lot of the base and thus lost the 'foot soldiers'. 

The media is for the most part Conservative owned and controlled so I can agree with that, particularly on a national level.

C4 conducted a poll post election and the top reason for not voting Labour is... Keir Starmer's Leadership.

Starmer's response to the question from the BBC about the concrete policy changes he would put in place after this result sums it up for me.  'I will change the things that need changing and that is the change I will bring about' 

He will be toast fairly soon.

[BrutusTheBear]

I don’t think Starmer is inept at all. He has a bit of the Miliband robotic presentation which he could do with working on. But I think he’s done as well as anyone given the circumstances. And bearing in mind he’s up against a shape shifting force of personality still riding a Brexit wave who’s also borrowed a vast amount of money, paid loads of people’s wages for months, and taken the credit for vaccinating the whole nation.

I’d be up for some radical policies - I agree with Brutus on that. But if you can’t see that Burnham comes straight from the Blair mould - hardworking / listening / moderate - rather than reactionary / we know better than you then I give up. Burnham couldn’t work with Corbyn. And he opposed Miliband’s mansion tax because he knew it smacked of the politics of envy.

Yes. Burnham is a Blairite but when he had the opportunity to oppose the government firmly, he did so and he is rewarded with the people of Manchester getting behind him.  Contrast this with Sadiq Khan's failure to oppose and his consequently falling majority against a really bad Conservative candidate.
People want something tangible that will make their lives better, there's a long list of very popular policies that the majority of people want.  However, the only policy initiative that I can recall Keir and his team pushing is 'Recovery Bonds' (that one's not on the list!).

[mrjonathanr]

TD you're ignoring the results and the absolute ineptitude of Starmer and his advisors. How do you explain it?

Hartlepool, totemic as it may be, was always going to lean to Brexit supporting parties. Now, that’s just the Tories.

Starmer is good forensically, but in the role of communicator and salesman is far from satisfactory. Labour needs a clear sense of direction and an effective pitch to a broad electorate and are currently rather lost.

You are going further though Brutus, accusing ineptitude. I fear you are not seeing the deeper mess the party is in. Corbyn bequeathed the weakest PLP since 1935. That is not all the fault of Blairites. A return to Corbynism will just do more of what it did last time; hugely damage the possibility of a return to power.

The answers lie in working out what they stand for and building the coalition to stand with. It is a big problem.

[mrjonathanr]

Burnham is a Blairite but when he had the opportunity to oppose the government firmly, he did so and he is rewarded with the people of Manchester getting behind him.  Contrast this with Sadiq Khan's failure to oppose and his consequently falling majority against a really bad Conservative candidate.
People want something tangible that will make their lives better,

Yes, this, absolutely. Fight to represent the interests and concerns of local people. A coalition could form because localism is diverse.

[BrutusTheBear]

The answers lie in working out what they stand for and building the coalition to stand with. It is a big problem

They are elected politicians and they need to work out what they stand for?  That's ineptitude right there.

[TobyD]

TD you're ignoring the results and the absolute ineptitude of Starmer and his advisors. How do you explain it?

Hartlepool, totemic as it may be, was always going to lean to Brexit supporting parties. Now, that’s just the Tories.

Starmer is good forensically, but in the role of communicator and salesman is far from satisfactory. ...
The answers lie in working out what they stand for and building the coalition to stand with. It is a big problem.

I agree probably most with this. Brutus I just can't see where you're coming from. It seems emblematic of the traditional Labour party contingent that 'Blair' has become to them perjorative, yet he's the only living Labour party winner, the only one who's won a solid majority in over half a century.

Even if you think Blair did not represent Labour, don't you think that was part of his success?
I don't think it's contraversial to say that Boris Johnson doesn't represent the traditional Conservative party. Theresa May, on the other hand is very much a traditional Conservative and nearly lost them the government. The party realised that and ruthlessly went about picking a winner.

On the positive side, I don't think Johnson is unassailable. His success is very much transactional. His government has been paying people to not work, handing out vaccines and promises levelling up. If they're seen as not delivering, he'll be toast. Perhaps Starmer's quietly competent, unremarkable approach is correct? After all, opposition parties don't win elections, governments lose them.

[BrutusTheBear]

Fight to represent the interests and concerns of local people

Sounds like socialism to me.

[BrutusTheBear]

Even if you think Blair did not represent Labour, don't you think that was part of his success?
I don't think it's contraversial to say that Boris Johnson doesn't represent the traditional Conservative party. Theresa May, on the other hand is very much a traditional Conservative and nearly lost them the government. The party realised that and ruthlessly went about picking a winner.

Blair and his team successfully got into bed with Murdoch and big business, he was ruthless and won the backing of the power brokers.  The whole 'there's no point in voting their all the bloody same' resulted from this.  Keir and his team have tried to do the same but the power brokers aren't interested..  Financially speaking, with a greatly reduced membership and the failure to attract big business money Labour is struggling.  I think people see straight through this kind of politician and the electoral success of Blair and co. can't be repeated... the damage has been done.

[TobyD]

Even if you think Blair did not represent Labour, don't you think that was part of his success?
I don't think it's contraversial to say that Boris Johnson doesn't represent the traditional Conservative party. Theresa May, on the other hand is very much a traditional Conservative and nearly lost them the government. The party realised that and ruthlessly went about picking a winner.

Blair and his team successfully got into bed with Murdoch and big business, he was ruthless and won the backing of the power brokers.  The whole 'there's no point in voting their all the bloody same' resulted from this.  Keir and his team have tried to do the same but the power brokers aren't interested..  Financially speaking, with a greatly reduced membership and the failure to attract big business money Labour is struggling.  I think people see straight through this kind of politician and the electoral success of Blair and co. can't be repeated... the damage has been done.

That's exactly what I'm talking about. You are only critical of the only time that Labour has managed to win lots of votes in more than 50 years.
If they go down your route, they'll never get more than 15-20% of the vote.

Professional media marketing and management is part of politics now, not selling out. Appealing only to Twitter will not get you anywhere.