[seankenny]

Agnostic on the vote as it’s going to go through anyhow, so the only important thing about it for Labour is how voters feel about Labour as a result. Figure we should swallow this one, highlight the absurdly short time it had in Parliament, and then work out how to minimise the damage the reckless and foolish Brexiters have done.

Interesting read:
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/british-sovereignty-run-by-europe/

If correct, then mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, good to keep us a vaguely social democracy. On the other, more vassal state bollocks for idiot nationalists to keep whining on about. I would rather fight them on better working conditions than culture war shite, but there’s a wide streak of sadism amongst Brexit supporters (not, I hasten to add, masochism), so even battling for guaranteed holidays and clean air might not be all that easy...

[Paul B]

My MP emailed me (amongst thousands I expect) asking my view on how she should vote and on Labours position. The vote puts Labour between a rock and a hard place, but I think KS is taking the most pragmatic (least damaging) path.

After subjecting myself to BBC parliament today I don't agre. The logic he's been using on lockdown/tiers is that he doesn't think the proposals are enough, but voting against them would mean no measures. Therefore, Labour abstain.

Replace lockdown/tiers/measures with deal in the above and I can't see why this time they need to support it with the Gov's majority?

Given what happens at PMQs is serious questions get asked and the PM just takes the piss back, all KS is going to hear from now on is "well you voted for it"; his speech regarding why won't be remembered let alone cited in context.

[Oldmanmatt]

Worth a couple of minutes:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/29/obsolete-software-from-1990s-features-in-brexit-deal-text?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR27nsXOoh1zWGxF4zTmtX7x2ah1HrXX0T6Sv03AyNpSYSNrlGuol2ut610#Echobox=1609270657

And you’re going to get the best eye roll workout session imaginable.

[tomtom]

Paul - I was referring to brexit rather than covid. Soz if that wasn’t clear

[ali k]

Latest YouGov polling shows the overwhelming majority of the public wanted the deal to go through (almost 60% in favour vs 9% against) despite hardly any (17%) thinking it’s a ‘good’ deal (even among Tory and leave voters).

Which suggests to me Brexit isn’t top of anyone’s priority list and people just want to move on, even though they know this is a shit outcome. So Labour are broadly in line with public opinion on that front.

The SNP have some political mileage in calling out the shitness of the deal so I can understand why they voted against, given Scotland didn’t want Brexit. But Labour have more to lose if they constantly go on the attack over the details of the deal and risk sounding like “I told you so” remainer whiners. So I doubt we’ll hear much from Starmer on it at PMQs. They know the public are bored of it.

Any positives which emerge from Brexit are going to be sung from the rooftops by the Govt and the Murdoch press, so by voting for the deal Starmer has removed what would have been an inevitable attack line “Labour wanted no deal blah blah”.

But the Tories, and particularly Johnson, Gove et al, completely own Brexit and the public know it, and this deal is Johnson’s deal. And they also know Starmer never wanted Brexit in the first place - god knows Johnson has banged on about that enough. So any downsides from Brexit in the next few years, or hidden clauses within the deal that fuck the UK over, will be laid squarely at the feet of Johnson, or the Tories more broadly, in my opinion.

I think he’s done the right thing.

[Paul B]

Have you read his recent release and if so do you still hold that  opinion?

[spidermonkey09]

Another vote Labour voting the right way on this. It is simply not feasible for a serious opposition party to keep abstaining on big issues. Public opinion is right behind passing the deal so it seems a no brainer to have voted for it as far as I am concerned.

[Paul B]

Public opinion is behind the deal because it's a choice between deal or no deal and the clock has run out.

How do you feel about KS now saying that he doesn't think the EU/relationship will be part of their next manifesto?

[spidermonkey09]

I think that is common sense. EU membership will be back as a live issue but I don't think banging the drum to rejoin is worth it in the short term, not least because it will sound like sour grapes and a lot of people will think "let's at least see how it goes and give a bet a chance to go down."

[ali k]

How do you feel about KS now saying that he doesn't think the EU/relationship will be part of their next manifesto?

No problem with that. If they try to fight the next election around Brexit, even if it’s only a bit part, they’ll lose badly again. No one wants a rerun of the 2017 or 2019 elections, and saying “I told you so” won’t go down well. As much as I’d love KS to ram every lie and broken promise Johnson has made down his throat day in day out for the next 4yrs that’s not the way to win the next election.

[Oldmanmatt]

How do you feel about KS now saying that he doesn't think the EU/relationship will be part of their next manifesto?

No problem with that. If they try to fight the next election around Brexit, even if it’s only a bit part, they’ll lose badly again. No one wants a rerun of the 2017 or 2019 elections, and saying “I told you so” won’t go down well. As much as I’d love KS to ram every lie and broken promise Johnson has made down his throat day in day out for the next 4yrs that’s not the way to win the next election.

Agreed.

Of course, by the time of the next election, that might be a valid campaign angle...

[Paul B]

I didn't mention rejoin, I was thinking more with regard to the renegotiation:

Starmer said he could not
envisage Europe or Brexit playing any part in the election campaign of 2024 – or featuring on any Labour MPs’ election leaflets – despite the opportunity for a review of the treaty in 2024, which is spelled out in the current deal.

“It’s pretty unlikely. The focus will be on Britain and on Britain’s role in the world,” he said. “Will the renegotiation of the treaty be central to the manifesto? No.

I still feel that abstaining was more in keeping with their approach to the Covid restrictions but understand their support for it more after reading that.

[Will Hunt]

The government of The Netherlands has resigned amidst a scandal.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/15/dutch-government-resigns-over-child-benefits-scandal

You may wonder what alternative universe you have stumbled into where you find a government fucking up, taking responsibility for it, apologising, and taking the political consequences for it on the chin. I'd thought that we were past all that.

[Fultonius]

The government of The Netherlands has resigned amidst a scandal.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/15/dutch-government-resigns-over-child-benefits-scandal

You may wonder what alternative universe you have stumbled into where you find a government fucking up, taking responsibility for it, apologising, and taking the political consequences for it on the chin. I'd thought that we were past all that.

Not sure it's quite as commendable as that, with elections due in March I reckon the coalition parties have taken a calculated bet that it will look better to try to distance themselves from the Mark Rutte to save some face. #cynic.

[webbo]

According to what I was reading yesterday they reckon Mark Rutte will get elected again  in March and be the leader of a coalition government. So not that commendable.

[Will Hunt]

Maybe so. But if they are re-elected then it will be because they have the confidence of the electorate.

I just thought it was remarkable to see a political leadership that chose to admit a failure rather than see if it could outlast the media attention.

I accept this is probably a very superficial reading of the situation.

[mrjonathanr]

Really impressed by Neil O Brien. As well as his Twitter feed, he has written in today’s Observer about the danger posed by COVID sceptics like Toby Young and his ilk.

It really shouldn’t be left to a constituency to MP oppose their nonsense.

[TobyD]

Really impressed by Neil O Brien. As well as his Twitter feed, he has written in today’s Observer about the danger posed by COVID sceptics like Toby Young and his ilk.

It really shouldn’t be left to a constituency to MP oppose their nonsense.

I agree,  I thought it was a good article.  He also wrote a hilarious letter to the Telegraph pointing out all the bullshit that they published in the last year, in response to a Telegraph piece on what the country had got wrong in the pandemic. 
The Telegraph and Spectator,  among others have shown no contrition for the number of dangerous lies that they have published and deserve more criticism than they have had. 

[teestub]

The Telegraph and Spectator,  among others have shown no contrition for the number of dangerous lies that they have published and deserve more criticism than they have had.

The Telegraph did publish a correction following the IPSO finding
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/14/cross-reactive-t-cells-correction/

[seankenny]

Well, this is quite a read.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1352575097308143616

[TobyD]

Is Scotland heading for independence?
My guess is yes, although Johnson may manage to push the issue to one side for the duration of his tenure, leaving a gigantic cess pit for the next leader to inherit. I feel that it has something of the same grim inevitablity as the UK leaving the EU, that it was perhaps not a matter of whether, as when it would end up happening. It may well be that it has profoundly negative economic consequences in at least the medium term for Scotland (and perhaps the remainder of the UK?), but that same fact didn't deter Brexit.
However, I'm not Scottish nor do I live there, any opinions?

[ali k]

Is Scotland heading for independence?
Johnson may manage to push the issue to one side for the duration of his tenure, leaving a gigantic cess pit for the next leader to inherit. It may well be that it has profoundly negative economic consequences for Scotland...but that same fact didn't deter Brexit.

The trouble I see is that virtually every argument against independence was also true of Brexit but was ignored and swept aside by this govt so any attempt to argue against it just undermines the case for Brexit. So pretty much all Johnson is left with is “it was a once in a generation referendum so pipe down Ms Sturgeon”. Which then helps the SNP’s cause.

[mrjonathanr]

He’s their biggest asset IMO.

[Neil F]

Is Scotland heading for independence? My guess is yes...

However, I'm not Scottish nor do I live there, any opinions?

Neither am I, but consider this:-

You are right that every time Johnson tries to dismiss SNP calls for a referendum, it plays into their hands.  Referenda have a lot to answer for, imo…

There is, however, another way, which I’ve yet to hear a Westminster politician articulate, despite it being quite obvious to me.

The SNP wants a referendum on its desire to leave the United Kingdom, but the UK is a union of 4 countries, all of which would be affected should Scotland decide to go it alone.

It seems only right, therefore, that those entitled to vote in any future referendum on Scottish independence (or Welsh, or for a reunified Ireland) should be the citizens of those nations – all 4 of them.

Clearly Nicola would cry foul, but why should I not have a vote in a proposal which will fundamentally affect the future of the sovereign nation I live in?

Of course any referendum has inherent risks, which is why I shall never forgive Cameron for gambling with the very future of our nation simply to placate his own backbenchers, but I think the chances of the SNP winning independence from such a referendum would be massively reduced.

[spidermonkey09]

Is Scotland heading for independence? My guess is yes...

However, I'm not Scottish nor do I live there, any opinions?

Neither am I, but consider this:-

You are right that every time Johnson tries to dismiss SNP calls for a referendum, it plays into their hands.  Referenda have a lot to answer for, imo…

There is, however, another way, which I’ve yet to hear a Westminster politician articulate, despite it being quite obvious to me.

The SNP wants a referendum on its desire to leave the United Kingdom, but the UK is a union of 4 countries, all of which would be affected should Scotland decide to go it alone.

It seems only right, therefore, that those entitled to vote in any future referendum on Scottish independence (or Welsh, or for a reunified Ireland) should be the citizens of those nations – all 4 of them.

Clearly Nicola would cry foul, but why should I not have a vote in a proposal which will fundamentally affect the future of the sovereign nation I live in?

Of course any referendum has inherent risks, which is why I shall never forgive Cameron for gambling with the very future of our nation simply to placate his own backbenchers, but I think the chances of the SNP winning independence from such a referendum would be massively reduced.

I really, really don't think that will wash. Not least because of the precedent set by the previous referendum. I think this is a bit of a logical fallacy to be honest; the franchise is set on the same terms as for Holyrood elections.

In the event of a future referendum on Irish unification, there would have to be votes in favour both from NI to leave the UK and from the Republic to accept the unification, but Scottish, Welsh and English voters would not get a vote. This seems entirely just to me. (this is the established legal position; good Briefing Room podcast on exactly this topic this week).