[Davo]

Hi Toby

Not really sure I agree with that, I’m not actually convinced that policies are that important for the majority of the electorate. The difficulty that Labour had was mostly about presentation and Brexit. The tories has virtually no policies but just one clear and well presented message: “get Brexit done”.

I suspect that without Brexit and with a better leader Labour would have done fine with its manifesto.

Once Brexit is done and then next election comes round, as long as Labour have a better leader I think that many people who lent the conservatives their vote will swing back to Labour.

[TobyD]

Once Brexit is done and then next election comes round, as long as Labour have a better leader I think that many people who lent the conservatives their vote will swing back to Labour.

We'll have to agree to disagree about that, I think Labour's electoral problems run much, much deeper than that.
Given some of the moves made towards a distastefully illiberal form of governance by our current administration I wish that this were not the case.

[tomtom]

Credibility and the message.

People thought BJ (despite is numerous failings and bad qualities) was credible to 'get brexit done'

They didnt think JC was credible to do all the many many things that were promised in their manifesto.

The electorate are obviously happier with a bumbling Etonian mysoginistic racist than marxist terrorist supporting shouty man (taking the extreme perspectives of both descriptives)...

What a shit show that election really was - on all fronts.

[mrjonathanr]

Once Brexit is done and then next election comes round, as long as Labour have a better leader I think that many people who lent the conservatives their vote will swing back to Labour.

We'll have to agree to disagree about that, I think Labour's electoral problems run much, much deeper than that.
Given some of the moves made towards a distastefully illiberal form of governance by our current administration I wish that this were not the case.

I don’t think Brexit will be ‘done’. It will be an unending process of negotiations- I doubt the implied sense of closure will be there for many.

[Davo]

Hi Toby

I basically agree with TomTom. Credibility and message were what Labour down. What major difficulties do you see them facing?

In terms of Brexit being done. I agree that it will drag on for a long period but I don’t think it will cut through anymore or get much attention. The big thing was actually leaving, the rest is just negotiations and detail: I doubt anyone will be interested in that stuff, even though it obviously has huge consequences. In terms of elections and who to vote for I really think it won’t matter anymore and people will be back to voting on domestic issues.

[TobyD]

Hi Toby

Credibility and message were what Labour down. What major difficulties do you see them facing?

See my post above. Most Labour party members and MPs believe in things that their ex voters don't. Their priorities have become different, Labour are not just going to win back industrial towns. I think that Lisa Nandy realises this and is sort of trying to do something about it.

[Davo]

Not really sure that is true. Most people in the industrial towns that voted for the conservatives pretty much did so for two reasons: Brexit and a dislike of Corbyn. Without those two issues I doubt many of those people will be voting Conservative again. Also most people still think the NHS is important, value public services etc and think that we need to fund these things better. These are things that Labour is strong on and should do well with.

[TobyD]

Also most people still think the NHS is important, value public services etc and think that we need to fund these things better. These are things that Labour is strong on and should do well with.

Except that the current government is driving a tank all over that lawn. Johnson knows that if he lies loudly and repeatedly about 40 hospitals and billions more buses, that people who are only half paying  attention will forget it's a lie. I think that if Labour aren't very careful they could actually do even worse at the next election and be on their way to irrelevance.  Ultimately we're both only guessing what might happen,  and in many ways I'd rather share your optimism!
Labour's best hope is perhaps that the age which people go to being more likely to vote conservative from labour is now 51. Unfortunately as someone pointed out above population distribution means that this yields the conservatives more seats, and just leads to really high labour majorities in a few metropolitan areas. 

[ali k]

Sadly, I think you’re bang on with this Toby.

The only things I see that could bring Johnson down would be a gaffe of almighty proportions that even the greased piglet himself couldn’t talk his way out of (but given his Trumpian mastery of diversionary tactics up to now that seems unlikely).

Or alternatively, if the damage to the economy is so profound and catastrophic in the coming years that it’s undeniably a result of not only Brexit itself but also Johnson’s strategy in the post-Brexit trade negotiations. But given that a significant proportion of the media have thrown their weight behind supporting the Brexit project under Johnson I can’t see them being in a rush to pin the blame for any consequences on that and will instead, along with HMG, look to others to blame.

[tomtom]

Labour may need a new strategy other than the ‘wait for the government to fuck up again’ plan that’s been in operation for the last 4 years...

[ali k]

I think they do need a new strategy, but personally I’m at a loss as to what that should be.

Similar to the situation with Trump across the water, in this post-truth age of politics it seems like Labour/the Democrats would need to engage in a race to the bottom of bigger and bigger lies and more bluster spouted from the mouth of a charlatan to be able to compete. Which is what depresses me most about the whole thing.

[tommytwotone]

The fact is, Labour were outflanked and missed their one chance to rescue themselves / limit damage.

The Brexit project was, and still is a carefully masterminded attempt to shift the electoral profile of the UK away from traditional party lines and more towards identity politics. The genius (if you will) of it was that its architects hit upon something that a) would resonate with Labour's base and draw them away, and that b) the leader of the opposition agreed with too

IMO the problem for Labour was, and still is, playing a 21st century game by 1980s rules. And in the same way that the Rush / Aldridge-era Liverpool team would be slaughtered by the current Sheffield United side, the result was inevitable.

My view is that Labour's one chance to prevent things happening came then the prospect of a "Remain Alliance" was on the cards, but through (I assume) a lack of genuine support for a full-throated Remain position amongst Corbyn et al, and the aforementioned stubborn adherence to party lines prevented this. We are now where we are.

[Offwidth]

Hi Toby

Credibility and message were what Labour down. What major difficulties do you see them facing?

See my post above. Most Labour party members and MPs believe in things that their ex voters don't. Their priorities have become different, Labour are not just going to win back industrial towns. I think that Lisa Nandy realises this and is sort of trying to do something about it.

I agree with you on that but it's one hell of an oil tanker to turn. These older ex Labour voters are socially conservative and financially comfortable and won't change quickly, if at all. Hence I respect Lisa Nandy  but I think the future of Labour has to be progressive and lies elsewhere, in pragmatic evidenced based social fairness that doesn't terrify social conservatives..

For all that Corbyn was a disaster he was around ten seats from a possiibility of forming a minority government in 2017 (Milliband was even closer two elections earlier) and history shows that huge swings are possible under FPTP: from Major to Blair. History also shows that Attlee faced as rabid fearmongering from the tory press as Corbyn did, yet he was elected and formed our modern state based on fairness.  The proportion of votors with progressive views is currently a 6% majority (from the 2019 votes) and still increasing slowly, mainly as the new young voters are way better educated on average, than the old who die or become too decrepit to vote.

[Oldmanmatt]

Actually, Labour are a shoe-in for the next election.

At least as long as Priti Patel continues to campaign for them and increase their natural base...

[TobyD]

Hi Toby

Credibility and message were what Labour down. What major difficulties do you see them facing?

See my post above. Most Labour party members and MPs believe in things that their ex voters don't. Their priorities have become different, Labour are not just going to win back industrial towns. I think that Lisa Nandy realises this and is sort of trying to do something about it.

I agree with you on that but it's one hell of an oil tanker to turn. These older ex Labour voters are socially conservative and financially comfortable and won't change quickly, if at all. Hence I respect Lisa Nandy  but I think the future of Labour has to be progressive and lies elsewhere, in pragmatic evidenced based social fairness that doesn't terrify social conservatives..

For all that Corbyn was a disaster he was around ten seats from a possiibility of forming a minority government in 2017 (Milliband was even closer two elections earlier) and history shows that huge swings are possible under FPTP: from Major to Blair. History also shows that Attlee faced as rabid fearmongering from the tory press as Corbyn did, yet he was elected and formed our modern state based on fairness.  The proportion of votors with progressive views is currently a 6% majority (from the 2019 votes) and still increasing slowly, mainly as the new young voters are way better educated on average, than the old who die or become too decrepit to vote.

I think that your optimism is enviable, but too grounded in looking at the past. The people who switched from labour to conservative in 2019 aren't just going to fall back in line next time. As TTT said, Brexit, among other things has redefined politics not just here but in Europe and the USA. I think it's a really complicated mix of paranoia about migration, the financial crisis, various cultural issues and gender politics, how people feel about climate change and probably a lot more. Labour still seemed to believe last year that class was a determination of voting intention. The result showed how right that was.
A huge swing would be possible, but I really struggle to see how Labour are going to make themselves seem relevant again. I think that they need to redefine what the party stands for, and fast, or it'll expire.

[TobyD]

Actually, Labour are a shoe-in for the next election.

At least as long as Priti Patel continues to campaign for them and increase their natural base...

I don't know who is more unbelievably incompetent, Dominic Raab or Priti Patel.

[TobyD]

An interesting commentary on voting behaviour and immigration from Martin Kettle:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/19/tory-points-based-immigration-low-skilled-workers-politics-economy?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

His thesis that the conservative party has ceased to be a conservative, business and economy party and has become a nationalist party I find convincing. It is somewhat depressing that left wing commentators seem to be largely consoling themselves with the fervent hope that the country is going to disappear down the toilet under this government. I can't say I'm immune to this feeling, but wishing disaster cannot be a good state of affairs.

[tomtom]

Priti Patel. let’s just not go there. It says something if Kay Burley can make her look stupid...

[ali k]

Priti Patel. let’s just not go there. It says something if Kay Burley can make her look stupid...

I assume you’ve seen her recent “counter-terrorism offenders” interview.

Thick.As.Mince.

[Nigel]

Priti Patel. let’s just not go there. It says something if Kay Burley can make her look stupid...

I assume you’ve seen her recent “counter-terrorism offenders” interview.

Thick.As.Mince.

And let's not forget, a first class example that having to resign from cabinet in disgrace is no barrier to a swift and unscrutinised return. See also Liam Fox.

[TobyD]

Priti Patel. let’s just not go there. It says something if Kay Burley can make her look stupid...

I assume you’ve seen her recent “counter-terrorism offenders” interview.

Thick.As.Mince.

I'd certainly agree with criticism of the home secretary as incompetent, introducing unworkable or destructive policies, and a number of other things, but I feel that personalising criticism to things like 'thick' are a bit distasteful. Let's stick to talking about how politicians do their jobs rather than them personally.

[tomtom]

That’s why the word ‘look’ is there before the stupid,Toby.

(Hope I’ve got my commas correct!)

[TobyD]

That’s why the word ‘look’ is there before the stupid,Toby.

(Hope I’ve got my commas correct!)

I wasn't referring to your comment anyway, I would say that's a thoroughly reasonable assessment of her manner in interviews.  If there was any justice she'd end up going after the recent bullying scandal

[galpinos]

And let's not forget, a first class example that having to resign from cabinet in disgrace is no barrier to a swift and unscrutinised return. See also Liam Fox.

And Gavin Williamson

[spidermonkey09]

I'd certainly agree with criticism of the home secretary as incompetent, introducing unworkable or destructive policies, and a number of other things, but I feel that personalising criticism to things like 'thick' are a bit distasteful. Let's stick to talking about how politicians do their jobs rather than them personally.

Thick as mince is putting it politely! She is historically unworthy for such a position. I'm all for not personally slagging politicians (appearance, manner of speech etc) but cognitive function is fair game; she is manifestly not smart enough for the job. Consistently arguing for unworkable policies is evidence of that.

Old news but this video is a good example.