[James Malloch]

I’ve emailed my Local MP (Barrow and Furness constituency) for the first time. It’s a poor and deprived area which I think would have stood a chance under Labour, but not under Conservative. I’ll be keeping a close eye on his voting and how it impacts Cumbria.

Bitter? Absolutely.

However, given the number of lies and misleading statements over the last few years. I feel entitled to my bitterness.

I won’t be hit by (m)any changes, I’m well off and and the conservative policies will help me further. But I don’t need help, others do. Corbyn was too radical, but I hoped he would be tempered by whoever helped prop him up. We’re going to have to wait for the much needed changes that this country deserves..

[SamT]

Pretty much what James said - ^^^

[teestub]

Wow fucking hell, had to drive up to Scotland this morning

You tempted to stay up here on the safe side of the border Tim?

If indyref2 results in reenntry into EU I’ll be joining the queue at the border for sure!

[Oldmanmatt]

What's the cheapest way to join the Labour Party to get a vote in any upcoming leadership contest?

This is not a bad plan.

Perhaps, instead of moaning about how unrepresentative they have become, or how nice a progressive coalition would be, we should be actually taking over the LP. Tactical voting does not resolve FPTP.

The “popular” vote is nowhere near as depressing as the actual outcome.
So Andy, take heart! ‘Tis still the same number of rightwingers  we’ve always had, ~50%, with a few ditherers in the middle.

[nic mullin]

Forget everything about people rejecting the left and concentrate on people embracing the right. Let's credit people with making meaningful votes; a lot of people really like this shit.

If the pro-conservative posts I see on my social media are anything to go by, exactly this. A lot of people seem to want brexit (and the sooner the better), dislike immigrants, and hate being taxed. The lazy/feckless/deserving poor and "make criminals afraid again" narratives are very strong.

Climate, poverty, inequality, education and health do not seem to be major concerns outside of the centre/left.

Much as the opposition parties are weak and haven't got their messages across, I think that where we are is still very much because of the financial crisis and the refugee crisis which came shortly after. This has been easy money for the hard right. Selling centre or centre-left wing policies to people feeling the pinch when there is an easy scapegoat to blame is much harder.

We'll get new opposition leaders, and it'll probably help (a bit), but while living standards are being squeezed (and with Brexit and the global impact of China's economy slowing down, I think that's here to stay), right wing populism will be very attractive to a lot of people.

Feeling pretty despondent today to be honest.

[TobyD]

Forget everything about people rejecting the left and concentrate on people embracing the right. Let's credit people with making meaningful votes; a lot of people really like this shit.

If the pro-conservative posts I see on my social media are anything to go by, exactly this. A lot of people seem to want brexit (and the sooner the better), dislike immigrants, and hate being taxed. The lazy/feckless/deserving poor and "make criminals afraid again" narratives are very strong.

Climate, poverty, inequality, education and health do not seem to be major concerns outside of the centre/left.

Much as the opposition parties are weak and haven't got their messages across, I think that where we are is still very much because of the financial crisis and the refugee crisis which came shortly after. This has been easy money for the hard right. Selling centre or centre-left wing policies to people feeling the pinch when there is an easy scapegoat to blame is much harder.

We'll get new opposition leaders, and it'll probably help (a bit), but while living standards are being squeezed (and with Brexit and the global impact of China's economy slowing down, I think that's here to stay), right wing populism will be very attractive to a lot of people.

Feeling pretty despondent today to be honest.

A convincing argument, but I'd still argue that centre or centre left polices have far more scope to make successful political inroads in this situation than radical socialism.

I agree that Alex's suggestion of joining Labour to vote for a more sensible leader is a good one.

[tommytwotone]

Anyone care to stick their neck out with a prediction then?

I'm enjoying the sense of denial before finding out that the Tories have taken 350-360 seats.

Never been so unhappy to be proved right.

[Will Hunt]

I joined Labour to vote in the leadership contest ahead of the Corbyn-Smith run off. I quit when I was not prepared to be associated any longer with a party that refused to deal with its institutional antisemitism.

Hello, boys! I'm baaaaack!
https://join.labour.org.uk/?utm_source=website&utm_medium=actionmenu


Incidentally, my brother is a member of Labour, the Conservatives, and the Lib Dems, precisely so that he can vote in leadership contests.

[Oldmanmatt]

The “popular” vote is nowhere near as depressing as the actual outcome.
So Andy, take heart! ‘Tis still the same number of rightwingers  we’ve always had, ~50%, with a few ditherers in the middle

I have some numbers now.

Ignoring independents and fringe:

Lab, LD and SNP combined: 14,069,167 votes.

Cons: 13,905,250 votes.

This country is almost exactly split down the centre.

This has nothing to do with policies per se. It’s just simple human nature. It’s not a tidal wave of far right ideology, it’s exactly what it’s always been. The FPTP election makes it look like a landslide, but ultimately, it’s utterly equivocal.

How unlikely is it that that middle ground will shift over the nextfive years?

[webbo]

There is a thread on Bikeradar , a cycling forum in case you haven’t guessed. Which is “ Join the Labour Party and save your country “
On this thread die hard Tories have encouraged other Tories to join the Labour Party to vote for Jeremy Corbyn so as to make  Labour unelectable.
It appears to have worked.

[tomtom]

I joined Labour to vote in the leadership contest ahead of the Corbyn-Smith run off. I quit when I was not prepared to be associated any longer with a party that refused to deal with its institutional antisemitism.

Hello, boys! I'm baaaaack!
https://join.labour.org.uk/?utm_source=website&utm_medium=actionmenu


Incidentally, my brother is a member of Labour, the Conservatives, and the Lib Dems, precisely so that he can vote in leadership contests.

If any of those parties found out he would be expelled. It’s explicit in the t and c’s that you can’t also be a member of the other parties.

[Yossarian]

The people telling me to vote Labour on social media yesterday were (off the top of my head) an bestselling novelist and ex music industry A&R executive, a graffiti artist who travels around the world first class doing murals for Nike and Netflix, various award-winning graphic designers, a Guardian cookery writer based in Rome, some Vice journalists, and Steve Coogan.

The people who live near me (in Hastings) who I know voted Tory include our cleaner (20something single mum), our neighbour - a train driver, and the electrician who rewired our kitchen a fortnight ago...

This I think provides an excellent demonstration of where Corbyn’s head-in-the-sand self-indulgent you’re-a-Blairite-get-in-the-sea nonsense gets you. The Alan Johnson clip going around this morning is totally on the money.

[Yossarian]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2019/dec/13/i-want-momentum-gone-alan-johnson-slams-labour-left-video

[Will Hunt]

I joined Labour to vote in the leadership contest ahead of the Corbyn-Smith run off. I quit when I was not prepared to be associated any longer with a party that refused to deal with its institutional antisemitism.

Hello, boys! I'm baaaaack!
https://join.labour.org.uk/?utm_source=website&utm_medium=actionmenu


Incidentally, my brother is a member of Labour, the Conservatives, and the Lib Dems, precisely so that he can vote in leadership contests.

If any of those parties found out he would be expelled. It’s explicit in the t and c’s that you can’t also be a member of the other parties.

Indeed. But GDPR makes it very clear that the only lawful way that somebody might be exposed is by admission. They can't share membership lists.

[teestub]

Anyone care to stick their neck out with a prediction then?

I'm enjoying the sense of denial before finding out that the Tories have taken 350-360 seats.

Never been so unhappy to be proved right.

Did you put some money on this one?

[gme]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/13/five-reasons-why-labour-lost-the-election

I ignore point one as this is the bit of politics i really dont like now.

However point 2 re the manifesto i think really hits the nail on the head. They just kept adding and adding to a list of give aways which made it look like they were clutching at straws. Waspi women and free broadband the two most obvious.
They should have just stuck with two or three with one of them being there focus as they would have had to in reality if they had won.

I cant believe Jon Lansman actually agrees to this, he was a big part of writing it. Him and Momentum should really be in the no.1 position in my eyes.

[Oldmanmatt]

I heard Momentum are rebranding as Entropy.

[James Malloch]

Is there anywhere which lists the promises made by the conservatives during the election campaign? Obviously there is the manifesto but much of that is vague.

There were many things said which weren't in there and it would be great to have a list to keep track of words vs. Action.

[tommytwotone]

Anyone care to stick their neck out with a prediction then?

I'm enjoying the sense of denial before finding out that the Tories have taken 350-360 seats.

Never been so unhappy to be proved right.

Did you put some money on this one?

Yes, but not much - a small "emotional hedge" to make me feel better if it happened. It didn't, and I'll be donating the proceeds to a suitably anti-Tory charity.

This thread is the best / soberest reflection on that state of affairs in the Labour party at the moment:

https://twitter.com/DPWF0/status/1205256613814099968

[Bradders]

Is there anywhere which lists the promises made by the conservatives during the election campaign? Obviously there is the manifesto but much of that is vague.

There were many things said which weren't in there and it would be great to have a list to keep track of words vs. Action.

Wasn't that kind of the point of their whole campaign? Keep it simple, don't promise anything of real substance and GET BREXIT DONE.

[Will Hunt]

Would anyone care to dissemble this? Can't help but feel that it's not entirely differentiating the various factors (but my stats is rusty). For instance, Putney voted heavily to Remain.
https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1205393428932186113

[Nutty]

The R-squared value of 0.62 is the 'coefficient of determination' and in this case implies that that the linear model shown on the graph explains 62% of the variation of the outcome (the swing to/from Conservative).

[James Malloch]

The reports are that the final majority is 80 seats (365 won). However I though that there were 650 mps, 4 speakers and 7 Sinn Fein. Therefore 320 seats required for a majority. How does one get to the 80 figure?

[Oldmanmatt]

So, we use Penisula business services, for contracts etc etc and this is their take on the prospective changes coming, as regards employment law:

An extension of minimum wage rights to younger workers.

Wider flexible working rights.

A new right to ‘neo-natal leave’ for new parents of sick babies.

A new right to time off for employees who have caring responsibilities outside of work.

More rights for zero hours workers and others on unstable contracts.

But that’s pretty much all the Cons promised on that front, apparently.

[Nutty]

The reports are that the final majority is 80 seats (365 won). However I though that there were 650 mps, 4 speakers and 7 Sinn Fein. Therefore 320 seats required for a majority. How does one get to the 80 figure?

A typo?