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2019 December General Election (Read 23787 times)

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#550 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 04, 2019, 12:31:34 pm
It should be an issue of logic for genuine Lib Dem supporters.

Lib Dems say the top priority is to stop brexit. Lib Dems say PR is important. 

Voting for Labour in that constituency and unseating a figurehead of tory idiocy on the subject  is obviously the best they can do to stop brexit. Voting tactically is just a crude form of PR (the prefered candidate for Lib Dem voters would be eliminated in a PR syatem and votes would transfer to the next preference).

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#551 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 04, 2019, 12:52:18 pm
Voting tactically is just a crude form of PR (the prefered candidate for Lib Dem voters would be eliminated in a PR syatem and votes would transfer to the next preference).

Do you mean crude version of AV?

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#552 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 04, 2019, 01:05:43 pm
Voting tactically is just a crude form of PR (the prefered candidate for Lib Dem voters would be eliminated in a PR syatem and votes would transfer to the next preference).

Incorrect. The Lib Dems (and all other non-Con/Lab parties) relatively poor showing is a product of FPTP. In an AV or PR environment, you'd likely see much more support for these parties - to the point where they became real contenders in some seats.

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#553 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 04, 2019, 03:02:38 pm
It's correct in terms of the effect  of normal Lib Dem supporters voting in that particular seat Will. If they vote Lib Dem, their vote makes a smallish losing position a bit bigger. If they vote Labour, IDS might well lose the seat. Not even a green protest vote is possible there as the Green wants IDS to lose and has pulled out to help  (because of brexit and maybe as IDSl, like a lot of the tory right, link to libertarian think tanks that have helped US and UK climate change deniers).

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#554 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 04, 2019, 03:31:25 pm
Your assumption is that where non-Con/Lab parties don't currently show significant support, that is because they cannot command that support. In fact, we have no idea what sort of support the Lib Dems could command under a different voting system. All the previous polls have been FPTP, and tactical voting is hardly a new thing, so support for 3rd parties is already obscured.

To use your example in IDS' constituency you might have thousands of people who wish to vote for the Lib Dems or some other party, but they are locked into a struggle to keep their least favourite party out, so always end up voting Con/Lab. You're looking at that data and assuming that the Lib Dems are not well supported there - in fact, the Lib Dems may be able to command enough votes there to make it a three way tie, but we can't know this while those voters are forced to fall in with their least worst option.

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#555 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 04, 2019, 03:53:26 pm
ANyway... at dinner last night (work thing away) - I was sat opposite a gentleman who lives in Edinburgh - a lifelong labour voter, who will vote SNP to get rid of their Tory MP who has a 1000 majority. He hates the SNP. He spat vitriol about them. But he hates the Tories more....

Somehow in many parts of England the labour party have managed to let this slip - so whilst they don't like Labour much  - they dont hate the Tories any more etc...

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#556 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 04, 2019, 04:56:40 pm
If all my local Lib and Lab voters do the same SNP might be in with a shot.

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#557 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 04, 2019, 07:18:30 pm
Scathing stuff from the New Statesman leader today:

"But the essential judgement that must be made is on Mr Corbyn himself. His reluctance to apologise for the anti-Semitism in Labour and to take a stance on Brexit, the biggest issue facing the country, make him unfit to be prime minister."

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/election-2019/2019/12/leader-britain-deserves-better

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#558 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 04, 2019, 07:25:07 pm
Less fit than the current turd who couldn't even apologise for his own obnoxious behaviour and outright lying??

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#559 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 04, 2019, 09:43:26 pm
Scathing stuff from the New Statesman leader today:

"But the essential judgement that must be made is on Mr Corbyn himself. His reluctance to apologise for the anti-Semitism in Labour and to take a stance on Brexit, the biggest issue facing the country, make him unfit to be prime minister."

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/election-2019/2019/12/leader-britain-deserves-better
Less fit than the current turd who couldn't even apologise for his own obnoxious behaviour and outright lying??

Did you read the leader or just the quote?  The leader says that they advocate for no party but encourage all voters to vote tactically if necessary in order to deprive Johnson of a majority.  It affords both of the main party leaders  equal opprobrium. 

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#560 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 04, 2019, 09:52:55 pm
Sorry, no I didn't. Gave a brief skim just now.

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#561 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 05, 2019, 09:56:53 am
Your assumption is that where non-Con/Lab parties don't currently show significant support, that is because they cannot command that support. In fact, we have no idea what sort of support the Lib Dems could command under a different voting system. All the previous polls have been FPTP, and tactical voting is hardly a new thing, so support for 3rd parties is already obscured.

To use your example in IDS' constituency you might have thousands of people who wish to vote for the Lib Dems or some other party, but they are locked into a struggle to keep their least favourite party out, so always end up voting Con/Lab. You're looking at that data and assuming that the Lib Dems are not well supported there - in fact, the Lib Dems may be able to command enough votes there to make it a three way tie, but we can't know this while those voters are forced to fall in with their least worst option.

We have to deal with the election next week with the electoral system in front of us, with Boris and his fantasy brexit and his highly reactionary liar cabinet selling us libertarian tinged madness behind a one nation disguise. I'm seriously worried about what will happen in the UK when their lies backfire.  A tory majority is a high risk and high consequence outcome. The Lib Dem party say the most important national priority is to stop brexit. They propose PR systems that include transfering votes. In Chingford the polls clearly say Lib Dems can't win. Any sensible Lib Dem in that constituency, with that figurehead of this modern idiocy in the tory party, IDS, being vulnerable, should hold their nose and vote Labour.

I get that you think differently but please don't put words in my mouth. I'm not making any assumptions about the future of PR as I have no idea if and how voters would bring about that change in my lifetime (something I would like to have seen decades back).

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#562 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 06, 2019, 09:01:24 pm
Kinnell - this leaders debate is a car crash for Corbyn from what I can see....

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#563 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 06, 2019, 09:31:24 pm
Who? I only noticed BJ.

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#564 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 06, 2019, 09:32:16 pm
Who? I only noticed BJ.

Exactly - walked all over him...

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#565 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 06, 2019, 10:17:44 pm
Who? I only noticed BJ.

Exactly - walked all over him...

Seemed as though both were mainly repeating their own slogans as they have been for the past few weeks.  Boris just crowbars in get Brexit done over and over again, Corbyn says NHS for sale, austerity, and demands that someone let him finish. 

I read some of Major and Blair's speeches from today. Quite novel, their
actual passion and eloquence against the two piss poor efforts at inspiring people personified by Johnson and Corbyn. 

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#566 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 07, 2019, 12:55:36 pm
Poll gap back down to 10 points... polls always struggle to capture the youth vote  with a strong Labour preference  and the the likely increase in tactical voting.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/dec/05/election-polls-uk-2019-latest-opinion-poll-tracker

Who, with more than half a brain, really cares who wins in a debate between two poor leaders. This election is about a range from a Labour minority government to a Boris majority (with his bullshit oven ready brexit and his bullshit claim of one nationism when any remaining remotely moderate big name ministers in his reactionary cabinet are no longer standing).

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#569 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 07, 2019, 10:32:21 pm
Just started reading this, seems sensible: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/07/frankie-boyle-election-countdown-praying-prorogue-next-parliament

It seems increasingly obvious that Johnson will get an unspectacular but sufficient majority,  the UK will leave the EU at the end of January, and, in a years time there will be no trade deal,  which Johnson will lie about, say it's all the European Union's fault,  or blame the Irish/ Nicola Sturgeon/ immigration/ buses and try to pass it off as a famous victory. 

I really hope I'm totally wrong. 

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#570 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 08, 2019, 09:49:34 am
Just started reading this, seems sensible: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/07/frankie-boyle-election-countdown-praying-prorogue-next-parliament

Some gems .....from the insightful...."Media plurality is an issue we need to address in this country: the alternative is living in a timeline where, because Corbyn has wonky glasses, in a couple of years youíll be living in a tent city outside an Amazon warehouse trying to GoFund a tonsillectomy. The Tories calling Corbyn a communist and a threat to national security after handing nuclear power plants to the Chinese is a bit like getting a bollocking off Charles Manson for putting down slug pellets."

"This current iteration of Conservatism, a kind of mutant nationalism that insists all our infrastructure has to be owned by other countries, has nowhere to go but into an asset-stripped, deregulated wasteland. I donít know how anyone votes for that, or what happens after they do. British people donít get on well enough to form militia."

To the plain insulting through anger..."You wonít be surprised to learn that I wonít be voting Tory on Thursday, for much the same reasons that I wonít be spending the day kicking children and pensioners into traffic."

To why despair is to be avoided ...."Twenty miles up, itís a freezing cold universe, we only have the human connections we make here, nothing is permanent, and love is our only defence. I suggest we all vote accordingly, and try to help each other get through this thing, whatever it is."

Defy those polls, which were wrong last time, and do your best to keep the local tory out.

« Last Edit: December 08, 2019, 10:04:20 am by Offwidth »

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#571 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 08, 2019, 10:58:05 am
This point seems to have not cut through the noise well
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/20/labour-universal-services

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#572 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 08, 2019, 11:31:42 am
Its worth looking at the headlines daily right now to see the gulf in reporting

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-50702254

The Fail is on top mad form reporting the idiotic Simon Wiesenthal Centre's label of Corbyn's Labour as the biggest world threat to jews... almost as if Israel is not surrounded by states that would love to destroy it and facing arab terrorism within. Also interesting to see the red tops addiction to celebrity culture... Election, what election?

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#573 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 08, 2019, 12:06:51 pm
Its worth looking at the headlines daily right now to see the gulf in reporting

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-50702254

The Fail is on top mad form reporting the idiotic Simon Wiesenthal Centre's label of Corbyn's Labour as the biggest world threat to jews... almost as if Israel is not surrounded by states that would love to destroy it and facing arab terrorism within. Also interesting to see the red tops addiction to celebrity culture... Election, what election?

Electioon what election? I think thatís what most people wish for. Catching up with lots of old friends last night - and there was little or no enthusiasm for any of the leaders or parties. Voting to stop the lesser of two or three evils is of course a good reason to vote - but itís not one that makes people enthusiastic in general.

So some celeb jungle fluff is far more appealing than usual to many people Iíd suggest.

A bit like chatting about the old gaskins chestnuts on here I suspect :)

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#574 Re: 2019 December General Election
December 08, 2019, 12:39:32 pm
 I'd agree with that. Mainly  good people fooled and distracted into not seeing how important this is, while the press barons make more money.