[sdm]

I am cheered by the support of Lord J.C.Bamford for such an outcome, he is in a position to express an informed opinion.

Don't be.

He has had it in for the EU ever since they imposed a huge antitrust fine due to his company's illegal trade practices nearly 20 years ago. Illegal trade practices that harmed the consumer, JCB employees and JCB distributors.

His position is not in an indication of the positives of the EU for business as a whole, he just has a €40m axe to grind.

[SamT]

Potentially dirty business this ‘Clean Brexit’.

Where the poor are just collateral.  Has ever been thus.

[A Jooser]

By the by, are Bloomberg, Imperial College London and Liverpool Uni; agents of “PROJECT FEAR”?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-28/brexit-could-lead-to-thousands-more-deaths-by-2030-research-suggests?srnd=premium-europe

Really OMM, I know the Remoanageddonists are panting this as a *bad* thing, but think about it: how many of the thousands more dead due to Brexit will be leave voters? Add them all to the thousands of aged leave voters whose deaths have been so gleefully and tastelessly trumpeted by some and I think, come the People's Vote, you guys might just swing it!

I know it's clutching at straws but at least it's a chance of stopping the planes falling out of the frickin sky!

[teestub]

So now MPs have voted for something that the EU have said definitely can’t happen?

[Will Hunt]

Is "Clean Break" a new euphemism for "No deal" or "Hard Brexit"? Much nicer sounding.

Starting from the bottom.

Will - re: brinksmanship etc.. The problem with this is that this pushes uncertainty right to the limit - So company’s - like the one you work for end up with masses of uncertaintanty as to what to do and whether or not it invest. And spend £millions on contingency plans that may well be wasted money. We (as tax payers, bill payers, consumers) will always end up picking up the bill for this.

I think you're mistaking me. I'm not saying I like it or that I don't realise the disadvantages to it, just that I understand why it is inevitably happening given the circumstances. That doesn't make the circumstances any less fucked up.

I feel like I turned a corner when I stopped talking about how dumb I thought Leave was and started to view their opinions as legitimate but borne of a different perspective and set of core values. I don't want to sound like I'm the enlightened one here, but once you do that you can view the situation more dispassionately and judge it accordingly. It's a total shambles, but this is less to do with the personalities involved and individual decisions made and more to do with what's being attempted with a parliamentary system that is completely unsuited to it. We've got a parliament that is roughly structured around two competing fiscal, public spending, and state-size ideologies. The question of Brexit doesn't fit neatly with any party, and so parliament and the parties are split, making it almost impossible to achieve anything. The opposition are doing what they are constitutionally and habitually obliged to do and opposing the government, and there's not enough whippable MPs to get a deal enacted, so we're left with Brexit blancmange.

We could have not enacted Article 50, but that wouldn't have been a less difficult road to walk down.

[Ru]

So now MPs have voted for something that the EU have said definitely can’t happen?

And then they voted both to prevent something happening and to prevent themselves from preventing that same thing from happening. Parliament excelled itself tonight.

[teestub]

I must have missed one of the No Deal amendments, what a mess.

[tomtom]

Will - we could have negotiated our exit, a trade deal, the divorce bill. The whole fucking lot before triggering A50. That was done to appease the brexit Tory MP’s... and ultimately handicapped the whole process.

One of the biggest of the many fallacies/half truths/poorly thought out ‘claims’ of the leave campaign is that we could leave quickly and have it all done fine - fox saying trade deals just like that etc...

If May st the outset had said - ok we’ll do this. But it’s going to take 5 years maybe more... we’ll set up a consultation process. Peoples panels, cross party committees etc.. all of that. But no.

All that has happened tonight is that the Conservative party and the DUP have decided they the prospect of a Labour government is worse than that of no deal. The thought of a bearded elbow patched shouty old school socialist in charge chills them so much that they unite. And so vaguely got behind the PM who now has an impossible task to negotiate.

Roll on feb15th for the next instalment of fuck all.

[TobyD]

Will - we could have negotiated our exit, a trade deal, the divorce bill. The whole fucking lot before triggering A50. That was done to appease the brexit Tory MP’s... and ultimately handicapped the whole process.

On Nick Robinson's podcast David Milliband- who was among the group who drafted A50 said that it was drafted specifically to be used with all exit agreements in place.

Welcome to no deal, probably. Increased cost of living and leave voting pensioners emptying out the shops while you're at work and the imminent demise of the NHS. ( Last paragraph isn't straight faced ranting btw but if I'm pessimistic enough I'd love to look silly if it doesn't happen)

[Oldmanmatt]

By the by, are Bloomberg, Imperial College London and Liverpool Uni; agents of “PROJECT FEAR”?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-28/brexit-could-lead-to-thousands-more-deaths-by-2030-research-suggests?srnd=premium-europe

Really OMM, I know the Remoanageddonists are panting this as a *bad* thing, but think about it: how many of the thousands more dead due to Brexit will be leave voters? Add them all to the thousands of aged leave voters whose deaths have been so gleefully and tastelessly trumpeted by some and I think, come the People's Vote, you guys might just swing it!

I know it's clutching at straws but at least it's a chance of stopping the planes falling out of the frickin sky!

That didn’t seem either “gleeful” nor “Tasteless”; rather dispassionate considering his circumstances. Just reinforced the point, that (depending on how you choose to view it) this has been foisted on a) very nearly half the population of this country, or b) slightly more than half the population and rising; against their will.
Millions of people will have their lives made harder, for no tangible benefit, even in the best scenarios.
Again, there is no economic forcast, from either side, that predicts a “better” future or standard of living for the people of this country, than that which could be expected under the current system; few even pridict anything close to parity. That’s both short and long term.
I see far more “gleeful” and “Tasteless” probrexit campaigners (often violent and aggressive) than I do remainers (not helped by by my Torquay (the homeof UKIP and retirement land) location). I see shouts of “Traitors” and pseudo-patriotic shit, spouted in support of Brexit, against (possibly) more than half the population and the main response being “but this doesn’t make sense” (which does not seem particularly treasonous, but apparently it is).

I have had certain relatives posting that Xerxes/Sparta meme on Facebook:



Very stirring. Patriotic. Etc.

But, as I messaged my Aunt:

[SA Chris]

So now MPs have voted for something that the EU have said definitely can’t happen?

And then they voted both to prevent something happening and to prevent themselves from preventing that same thing from happening. Parliament excelled itself tonight.

It's like the writers of Yes (Prime) Minister and The Thick of It collaborated to create the most ridiculous political omnishambles ever.

[mrjonathanr]

With production oversight by The Goon Show

[galpinos]

I don't want to sound like I'm the enlightened one here,

I'm not sure that should be on your worry list Will.........

[James Malloch]

I saw this on the BBC just now:

"Jeremy Corbyn's spokesman has declined to reveal what, if any, sanctions will be taken against Labour MPs who defied the party whip and did not vote for the Yvette Cooper amendment on Tuesday."

Does this mean an MP can't go on their own judgement if it's against their party's policy? If so is there any reason for this, it seems to stink of the party politics which many have complained about....

[tommytwotone]

I saw this on the BBC just now:

"Jeremy Corbyn's spokesman has declined to reveal what, if any, sanctions will be taken against Labour MPs who defied the party whip and did not vote for the Yvette Cooper amendment on Tuesday."

Does this mean an MP can't go on their own judgement if it's against their party's policy? If so is there any reason for this, it seems to stink of the party politics which many have complained about....

That's the essence of a three line whip - you're expected to attend and vote for the thing in question. or expect consequences.

 I think what the scenario you're referring to is a "free vote", which was the (can't not see it as Seb) Dominic Grieve amendment yesterday. Which was defeated.

[tomtom]

Of course it’s hard to escape the glare of hypocracy for JC when whipping his party - has he was (in)famous for defying the whip - on 30 plus occasions before he was thrust into the spotlights iirc.

[tomtom]

There’s someone leaving do on the 29th March at work - and it’s starting to morph into a strange “end of the world”/“fuck it let’s just get pissed” event.

Sounds like a good idea.

[highrepute]

Have we had this Tony Abbott article?

Was in a wetherspoons magazine that came through my door yesterday. I'm guessing a few people will get one. It's very enlightening on brexit and I've been converted and think no deal is a great idea and wish we'd done it two years ago.

Apparently, everyone who said brexit was in any way bad for the UK is part of the liberal elite establishment thing and they're all project fearing us to scupper brexit.

Turns out the only people who aren't part of this elite are Tony and Tim who owns wetherspoons. Decent blokes all round apparently.

On a serious note, can anyone say why Tony is not right or is no deal really the green and pleasant land we've been looking for?

[Oldmanmatt]

For one, and I’m hoping someone (Ru?) can confirm, but under WTO rules, if you make, unilaterally, one country’s goods tariff free; you have to do the same for all WTO members? Unless it’s part of a negotiated free trade agreement? Otherwise, what’s the point in trade agreements and why do nations spend so much time, energy and treasure, negotiating them? 

[tomtom]

Have we had this Tony Abbott article?

Was in a wetherspoons magazine that came through my door yesterday. I'm guessing a few people will get one. It's very enlightening on brexit and I've been converted and think no deal is a great idea and wish we'd done it two years ago.

Apparently, everyone who said brexit was in any way bad for the UK is part of the liberal elite establishment thing and they're all project fearing us to scupper brexit.

Turns out the only people who aren't part of this elite are Tony and Tim who owns wetherspoons. Decent blokes all round apparently.

On a serious note, can anyone say why Tony is not right or is no deal really the green and pleasant land we've been looking for?

Tony Abbot. The mad monk. I spend some time every year in Oz - and I can safely say that having watched many current affairs programs over there and chat to g to colleagues etc... the guy is a total fucking melon.

He is a mysoganistic, sexist homophobe who crawled to power over the corpses of his colleagues.

If you ever want to see a fantastic put down of him from the the PM Julia Gilard - Watch this. It’s long but gives your a good measure of what a worm he is.

[Ru]

For one, and I’m hoping someone (Ru?) can confirm, but under WTO rules, if you make, unilaterally, one country’s goods tariff free; you have to do the same for all WTO members? Unless it’s part of a negotiated free trade agreement? Otherwise, what’s the point in trade agreements and why do nations spend so much time, energy and treasure, negotiating them?

Yes, the WTO calls it the Most Favoured Nation principle, but it basically means you have to treat all countries you deal with under the WTO treaties the same.

[Ru]

On a serious note, can anyone say why Tony is not right or is no deal really the green and pleasant land we've been looking for?

No, the article is rubbish, it is on the same intellectual level as when my 4 year old son argued that he doesn't need to leave for school on time because our car goes 100mph so we could just drive that fast to make it up. I tried it, it doesn't work, too many other cars and corners and shit.* I can't be bothered refuting all the claims, but a glaring error is not understanding WTO rules on tariffs as Oldmanmatt points out.

* I didn't really.

[tomtom]

Tony Abbot really is s bell end.

[Oldmanmatt]

Then there’s this sort of thing, I just don’t understand how some people can dismiss it all:

“A fruit and vegetable buyer for a major supermarket told James O'Brien the reality of how food supplies and prices would be affected in a no-deal Brexit - and it's not good news.

John called after becoming frustrated with hearing people dismiss fears over food prices after Brexit, despite having no knowledge of the industry.

Insisting he had no reason to exaggerate the effect of leaving the EU with no agreement, he told James O'Brien just how much supermarkets will be affected.

He said: "Under WTO rules, we'd have to apply tariffs. These are extraordinary at times.

"The salad I buy has a tariff of 10%. We reckon every 1% of trade tariff will cost us £10-15million. Multiply that by 20 and you're looking at £200-300m in tariffs.

"You've then got the impact of weakening exchange rates. During the referendum, the exchange rate tanked and we took massive hits internally. We passed some on to the consumer, but we absorbed some. But there's no way we'd be able to absorb any more.”

"For every 1% weakening - and it dropped 18% last time - it's going to affect our cost of goods by 0.8%. So if it drops by 10%, you're looking at a 10% cost increase.

"You've then got the problem of availability - and this is a shocker.”

"Fruit and vegetables are the fourth priority for the government, so we've been told we will be given 25% availability of our lorries to pass through Dover ports. So from what we have now, we have to quarter what we take in from the EU. That's before we get the gridlock of the remaining 25%.”

"We can get them from countries outside the EU, but these all have trade deals with the EU on an Anything But Arms basis. We won't have that."

John had one more concern - this is the worst possible time for these problems. He added: "In April and May, it's when British stocks run out and the British harvest hasn't started. We import almost everything for these two months. It couldn't be worse timing.”

"All our stocks of onions, potatoes, carrots, they can run out. So we have to import everything."

[petejh]

Vegetables?

Who on earth eats those nowadays except the liberal elite? 

Will 2 litre coke, kebabs and fish n chips be affected? No? Well then. Scaremongering nutrient trolls.