[abarro81]

Here's the key bit from your quote Pete "The results of the EU referendum weren’t counted by parliamentary constituency".

I'd actually assumed that this "You're right. A large minority." was a joke, not unintentional irony

[Will Hunt]

Indeed. Miscalculations of judgement and certain incompetencies have to be viewed in the context of the most difficult piece of political negotiation that a sitting government has ever had to navigate, with a house that is split in its opinion of what to do, and a relatively indecisive referendum on which it's all based.

Having said that, it's not just Brexit that the Tories will be thinking about. If there's even the faintest whiff of a general election being precipitated they need to have a new leader in-post  well in advance of it being called.

[sdm]

The deal is as good as we could ever hope for.

As long as freedom of movement is off the table and a border within the UK is off the table, a better deal with the EU is also off the table.

Our redline is incompatible with any positive trade deal with Europe. It always was. It will never be seen that way by the ERG, Dacre, Barclays etc until they are in a position responsible for delivering the impossible.

[Oldmanmatt]

 To allow a policy, which a majority of their constituents voted for....

Figures based on the 2015 vote https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted would disagree with this, and wasn't there an even larger labour swing in the 2017 election?

You're right. A large minority.

What?
You mean like the “Remain” portion of the referendum vote?
Or, more like the “Leave” vote numbers compared to total eligible voters?

Almost as if things would be so much clearer if we had required a set majority percentage for both voter turnout and voting choice, in the plebiscite...

[petejh]

Here's the key bit from your quote Pete "The results of the EU referendum weren’t counted by parliamentary constituency".

I'd actually assumed that this "You're right. A large minority." was a joke, not unintentional irony

It would have been interesting if they had been wouldn't it.. Because we'd be looking at a 64% territorial majority for Leave instead of 52% of population. As in how they elect Congress and how Trump got into power though territorial majority. Which seems like a crazy way to run a democracy, they key part of the word being 'demos'.

Obviously I was referring to two separate but similar things:

A large minority (31%) of Labour voters voted Leave.
A large majority (61%) of Labour constituencies voted Leave.


Labour voters were roughly two-thirds/one-thirds split in favour of Remain, Conservative voters were roughly two-thirds/one-thirds split in favour of Leave. The country as a whole as we all know were 52/48 in favour of Leave.   

[petejh]

Or, more like the “Leave” vote numbers compared to total eligible voters?

Going over old topics Matt. Comparing voters of one persuasion or another to total number of eligible voters is a meaningless pursuit. If they couldn't be arsed to vote in one of the most important choices the country has made in generations, for whatever reason other than being held against their will, then they don't have a say. Some people's opinions just don't count, literally.

[Oldmanmatt]

Or, more like the “Leave” vote numbers compared to total eligible voters?

Going over old topics Matt. Comparing voters of one persuasion or another to total number of eligible voters is a meaningless pursuit. If they didn't vote, for whatever reason other than being held against their will, then they don't have a say.

Don’t?

Are you sure?

Are you suggesting that they have been disenfranchised?

It was two years ago. How many new voters are eligible now? Do you know? I bet it’s a larger number than margin in the vote.

How many that voted two years ago, are “gone”?

Bet that’s a lot too.

How many have changed their minds?

Nah. Fuck it.

The idea that all democratic process, in relation to Brexit, stopped on the day after the referendum; is bollocks.

And, revisiting “old topics” and decisions is EXACTLY what democracy is all about.

(Especially, since the points made then, are still valid. Your dislike of them, not withstanding).

This is a stupid, mismanaged, travesty. Certainly impossible to deliver without significant harm, within the time scale and under the current divided and incomptent government.

Go on. Tell me that this is going well.

[andy popp]

And a mixed group of remainers ... to refuse to flick on the light switch.

Yes, if only they would just believe.

[petejh]

Or, more like the “Leave” vote numbers compared to total eligible voters?

Going over old topics Matt. Comparing voters of one persuasion or another to total number of eligible voters is a meaningless pursuit. If they didn't vote, for whatever reason other than being held against their will, then they don't have a say.

Don’t?

Are you sure?

Are you suggesting that they have been disenfranchised?

It was two years ago. How many new voters are eligible now? Do you know? I bet it’s a larger number than margin in the vote.

How many that voted two years ago, are “gone”?

Bet that’s a lot too.

How many have changed their minds?

Nah. Fuck it.

The idea that all democratic process, in relation to Brexit, stopped on the day after the referendum; is bollocks.

And, revisiting “old topics” and decisions is EXACTLY what democracy is all about.

(Especially, since the points made then, are still valid. Your dislike of them, not withstanding).

This is a stupid, mismanaged, travesty. Certainly impossible to deliver without significant harm, within the time scale and under the current divided and incomptent government.

Go on. Tell me that this is going well.

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make other than 'Matt is unhappy and everyone must know about it'.

[Oldmanmatt]

Or, more like the “Leave” vote numbers compared to total eligible voters?

Going over old topics Matt. Comparing voters of one persuasion or another to total number of eligible voters is a meaningless pursuit. If they didn't vote, for whatever reason other than being held against their will, then they don't have a say.

Don’t?

Are you sure?

Are you suggesting that they have been disenfranchised?

It was two years ago. How many new voters are eligible now? Do you know? I bet it’s a larger number than margin in the vote.

How many that voted two years ago, are “gone”?

Bet that’s a lot too.

How many have changed their minds?

Nah. Fuck it.

The idea that all democratic process, in relation to Brexit, stopped on the day after the referendum; is bollocks.

And, revisiting “old topics” and decisions is EXACTLY what democracy is all about.

(Especially, since the points made then, are still valid. Your dislike of them, not withstanding).

This is a stupid, mismanaged, travesty. Certainly impossible to deliver without significant harm, within the time scale and under the current divided and incomptent government.

Go on. Tell me that this is going well.

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make other than 'Matt is unhappy and everyone must know about it'.

You honestly believe I’m alone in that?

No mate.

Some pretty upset bunnies out there, still waiting for even the vaguest hint of “Sun lit uplands” etc.

And guess what? All the people who had “big ideas” and said it would be “easy” and were in Government and part of the negotiations, have resigned to try and avoid owning their shit.


I’m just too long in the tooth to bother with trying to persuade anyone of anything anymore.

Nuance is lost on Leavers that are still in that camp, because nothing they ever said or thought made sense.

It must be the most incredible media bias, but I seem to have missed the majority of the heads of (insert industry, profession, trade body, regulator, etc etc, here) lauding the whole process and explaing how much better it will all be.
Nope, that biased media seems pretty negative on the whole thing...

The only people happy about it are some pretty damn ideologically drive, rich boy politicians; from our “Ruling class” of inbred tossers, and some elderly dicks that think the empire is returning.

Sorry pal. I’m not ideologically driven. I’d vote for any party that had policies I could support. I’m not a lefty, I have no deep seated antipathy to capitalism, no time for bigotry or racial, sexual or pink-unicorn-loving-or-any-the-friggin-shit-social-distiction-you-can-invent discrimination.

It’s simple. Brexit doesn’t make sense.

The reason we clash on this, is that I stopped trying to persuade you and started asking for testable proofs of the Brexit position as a beneficial act (within the context of models and reasoned predictions), and if those had been present, I would be right there with you.

Fuck, I’d love things to be hunkydory or that this might actually solve some of the bloody awful social problems that are drowning this country. Give me the fucking Pink Unicorns!

It’s not going to happen.

Saying, “it’ Be alright in twenty years (or fifty, or even ten)” is fucking stupid.


So...

Angry?

Of course, why aren’t you?

Is this going the way you wanted it to?

[Will Hunt]

I am continually frustrated by fellow Remain supporters who have not yet reconciled that there are lots and lots of people out there who, for whatever reason, want something different to them. To say that all Leavers are fundamentally wrong is not true - many of them have a legitimate and reasonably held view that there could be a better alternative to EU membership. The fact that this is different to the view of a Remain supporter is likely due to their holding different values. These values are not necessarily wrong, they are simply formed from each individual's unique set of experiences.

Let us put the shoe on the other foot. Had the result been reversed, with a marginal success for Remain, would Matt (sorry to pick on just you) still be advocating so strongly for a re-run? I think not. I suspect he would be telling his opponents to accept the result and to pipe down.

Imagine for a moment that the referendum had been about some other issue which you feel strongly about. Let's say the referendum is about whether the UK should stop selling arms to Saudi Arabia. The UK political establishment is split on this, but a majority of it wants to continue arms sales because it's good for the UK economy, and if we don't sell the weapons then we lose control of the terms of the contract and give it and the revenue to, say, the Russians. Many people speak out against this and say it is morally indefensible to maintain arms sales. Let's say you're on the side which wants to cease selling arms.
There's a campaign were each side trots out plenty of statistics, some credible, some not. An advisory referendum is held and, after a record breaking turnout, its 48/52 in favour of stopping sales.

And the government does nothing. What would you say about the government then? I expect there'd be riots in the street. Could the government be credibly seen as democratic?


Continue to make the argument for Remain if you must, but to call the EU referendum illegitimate is wrong and I think it would have been wrong for the government not to persue Brexit. There's no sense in trying to go over these old arguments.

This is not to say that Brexit must happen at any cost. We have a proposed deal now, which is the best that our democratically formed government could negotiate. It may be that a different group of people would have been able to come up with a better or worse deal, but this is what is in front of us now. I think it would be a fair to both sides of the argument to have another vote on whether to proceed - though from a personal point of view I dread to think what the result might be. We first need to understand the draft deal, and I defy any of the commentators here to say that they understand it in full. It's long, it's complicated, and it's only been out for a couple of days.

[Will Hunt]

Or, more like the “Leave” vote numbers compared to total eligible voters?

Going over old topics Matt. Comparing voters of one persuasion or another to total number of eligible voters is a meaningless pursuit. If they didn't vote, for whatever reason other than being held against their will, then they don't have a say.

Don’t?

Are you sure?

Are you suggesting that they have been disenfranchised?

It was two years ago. How many new voters are eligible now? Do you know? I bet it’s a larger number than margin in the vote.

How many that voted two years ago, are “gone”?

Bet that’s a lot too.

How many have changed their minds?

Nah. Fuck it.

The idea that all democratic process, in relation to Brexit, stopped on the day after the referendum; is bollocks.

And, revisiting “old topics” and decisions is EXACTLY what democracy is all about.

(Especially, since the points made then, are still valid. Your dislike of them, not withstanding).

This is a stupid, mismanaged, travesty. Certainly impossible to deliver without significant harm, within the time scale and under the current divided and incomptent government.

Go on. Tell me that this is going well.

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make other than 'Matt is unhappy and everyone must know about it'.

You honestly believe I’m alone in that?

No mate.

Some pretty upset bunnies out there, still waiting for even the vaguest hint of “Sun lit uplands” etc.

And guess what? All the people who had “big ideas” and said it would be “easy” and were in Government and part of the negotiations, have resigned to try and avoid owning their shit.


I’m just too long in the tooth to bother with trying to persuade anyone of anything anymore.

Nuance is lost on Leavers that are still in that camp, because nothing they ever said or thought made sense.

It must be the most incredible media bias, but I seem to have missed the majority of the heads of (insert industry, profession, trade body, regulator, etc etc, here) lauding the whole process and explaing how much better it will all be.
Nope, that biased media seems pretty negative on the whole thing...

The only people happy about it are some pretty damn ideologically drive, rich boy politicians; from our “Ruling class” of inbred tossers, and some elderly dicks that think the empire is returning.

Sorry pal. I’m not ideologically driven. I’d vote for any party that had policies I could support. I’m not a lefty, I have no deep seated antipathy to capitalism, no time for bigotry or racial, sexual or pink-unicorn-loving-or-any-the-friggin-shit-social-distiction-you-can-invent discrimination.

It’s simple. Brexit doesn’t make sense.

The reason we clash on this, is that I stopped trying to persuade you and started asking for testable proofs of the Brexit position as a beneficial act (within the context of models and reasoned predictions), and if those had been present, I would be right there with you.

Fuck, I’d love things to be hunkydory or that this might actually solve some of the bloody awful social problems that are drowning this country. Give me the fucking Pink Unicorns!

It’s not going to happen.

Saying, “it’ Be alright in twenty years (or fifty, or even ten)” is fucking stupid.


So...

Angry?

Of course, why aren’t you?

Is this going the way you wanted it to?

I don't think this impetuous and insulting tirade is becoming of you, Matt. Maybe have a lie down and a nice cup of camomile.

[tommytwotone]

Imagine for a moment that the referendum had been about some other issue which you feel strongly about. Let's say the referendum is about whether the UK should stop selling arms to Saudi Arabia. The UK political establishment is split on this, but a majority of it wants to continue arms sales because it's good for the UK economy, and if we don't sell the weapons then we lose control of the terms of the contract and give it and the revenue to, say, the Russians. Many people speak out against this and say it is morally indefensible to maintain arms sales. Let's say you're on the side which wants to cease selling arms.
There's a campaign were each side trots out plenty of statistics, some credible, some not. An advisory referendum is held and, after a record breaking turnout, its 48/52 in favour of stopping sales.

And the government does nothing. What would you say about the government then? I expect there'd be riots in the street. Could the government be credibly seen as democratic?

Take your point here Will but I don't think your metaphor is robust, as given the above "Stop selling arms to the Saudis" and "Keep selling arms to the Saudis" are two clear, unequivocal positions that the electorate would have no trouble understanding.


The crux was, and still is, whatever personal interpretation people held / hold of what "Leave the EU" actually means.


I personally wouldn't call Remain voters wrong, it is purely the fact that only now do we have a definition (and it looks like this will be the only definition going), of what "Leave the EU" actually means.


There should be a vote on whether we do that, the "crash out on WTO rules" one (as that is, stupid as it would be, still an option), or just realise the whole thing's a waste of time and just stay in the EU.


In my opinion the point we are at now is where we should have been when the referendum was called way back in 2016. At least then those voting could have done so with eyes wide open.


Anyway. This is well good in today's Guardian.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/16/brexit-paranoid-fantasy-fintan-otoole

[petejh]

Matt it's really easy to refute you because you constantly trot out the mistaken belief that I (being a leave voter) voted thinking that I was voting for 'sunlit uplands', that 'it would all be easy', for a binary choice between demonstrably 'better' and demonstrably 'worse'.
How many hundreds of times do I have to tell you I don't think the world works like that. Rather than believing that leaving the EU would be Unicorn-ville and sunlit uplands, I simply believe that leaving the EU wouldn't have a negative effect on the UK as a whole in the medium to long term. That's something very different to believing it would make us demonstrably better. I.e., I don't think the country will do 'better' per se, but neither do I think the country will do 'worse'. Given that I don't believe that it's in the interests of the UK to be subject to the level of EU control that it currently is, and given that I believe the positives of being able to make relationships globally offsets the negatives of a slightly more complicated relationship with the institution of the EU; then I see leaving as a reasonable choice.

You don't. I don't begrudge you for that.
But making stupid statements that all leave voters believe in Boris, Unicorns and sunlit uplands, and that we think 'it will all be easy' just makes you look like an idiot.

[teestub]

What T³ said Will, it's a complete false equivalency.

Plus the other major point is, a win for remain would have meant none of the drawn out painful negotiating of leave. What it could have done though is given the govt a kick up the bum to make sure they were getting the best deal out of the EU as a member, and resisting whatever 'ever closer union' looked like in the future (as the Tories had largely been doing up to that point anyway).

I think Pete has done a great job for the Leave PoV on here, as others have on UKC.

Pete what do you think best way forwards is now, would you be in favour of a 3 option 2nd people's vote?

[Will Hunt]

Imagine for a moment that the referendum had been about some other issue which you feel strongly about. Let's say the referendum is about whether the UK should stop selling arms to Saudi Arabia. The UK political establishment is split on this, but a majority of it wants to continue arms sales because it's good for the UK economy, and if we don't sell the weapons then we lose control of the terms of the contract and give it and the revenue to, say, the Russians. Many people speak out against this and say it is morally indefensible to maintain arms sales. Let's say you're on the side which wants to cease selling arms.
There's a campaign were each side trots out plenty of statistics, some credible, some not. An advisory referendum is held and, after a record breaking turnout, its 48/52 in favour of stopping sales.

And the government does nothing. What would you say about the government then? I expect there'd be riots in the street. Could the government be credibly seen as democratic?

Take your point here Will but I don't think your metaphor is robust, as given the above "Stop selling arms to the Saudis" and "Keep selling arms to the Saudis" are two clear, unequivocal positions that the electorate would have no trouble understanding.


The crux was, and still is, whatever personal interpretation people held / hold of what "Leave the EU" actually means.


I personally wouldn't call Remain voters wrong, it is purely the fact that just that only now we have a definition (and it looks like this will be the only definition going), of what "Leave the EU" actually means.


There should be a vote on whether we do that, the "crash out on WTO rules" one (as that is, stupid as it would be, still an option), or just realise the whole thing's a waste of time and just stay in the EU.


In my opinion the point we are at now is where we should have been when the referendum was called way back in 2016. At least then those voting could have done so with eyes wide open.


Anyway. This is well good in today's Guardian.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/16/brexit-paranoid-fantasy-fintan-otoole

Yeah, it wasn't a great analogy. It also falls down in not matching the importance of Brexit to the very fabric of the nation. I was just casting around for a way to put Remainers in the shoes of a Leaver (for a supposedly bleeding-heart-liberal lot, the more vociferous Remainers seem to completely lack empathy).

I completely agree that now is an appropriate time to pause for breath and to rethink, in some way, what to do next now that we actually have sight of what Brexit might look like. If somebody sells you a delicious looking cake and on taking a bite of it you find that they forgot to add the sugar, it stands to reason that you can choose whether to spit or swallow (let's get #spitorswallowBrexit trending, please).

Somebody on the radio last night argued for a two option vote, on the basis that no deal was not worth even mooting as viable. I think that would be a good way to go, but I would quite happily put money on the deal being voted through. I think Remainers vastly overestimate the chances of a reversion to Remain. Even if there is a marginal victory for Remain (anything more decisive is unlikely), this does not mean that the issue is going to go away. We're not going to have a Leaver/Remainer purge.

What T³ said Will, it's a complete false equivalency.

Plus the other major point is, a win for remain would have meant none of the drawn out painful negotiating of leave. What it could have done though is given the govt a kick up the bum to make sure they were getting the best deal out of the EU as a member, and resisting whatever 'ever closer union' looked like in the future (as the Tories had largely been doing up to that point anyway).

I think Pete has done a great job for the Leave PoV on here, as others have on UKC.

Pete what do you think best way forwards is now, would you be in favour of a 3 option 2nd people'e vote?

Yep, I appreciate that the analogy is imperfect. See comment above.

Re: a win for remain. Yep, we wouldn't have started leave negotiations, but the Brexiteers would not have gone back in their box. A marginal Remain victory would only have proven that there was some scope for a victoy in the future and emboldened them. There's a paradox in that you can't really go through the painstaking process of negotiating an exit deal without first triggering Article 50, so perhaps having a marginal Leave success has benefited us by actually showing us what Leave could be.

[Oldmanmatt]

Pete, for the past two years, you have been the sole representative of anything sane or reasonable, from any single person that I have known or spoken to about this.

And I know many Brexit supporters.

All, bar you, have bought into the UKIP/ERG version of reality. The vast majority, including close relatives of mine, are out and out racist. Their entire reason for backing leave is based on immigration (in fact, in most cases, it isn’t even European immigrants they’re worried about and they cannot understand that Brexit isn’t going to stop the kind of immigrants they have nightmares about).


So, this idea that the “other side” deserve respect at all times is balls.
Pete does, but he’s a big lad and he knows how to swat back. (That’s not refutation by the way. “You’re rude” isn’t a rebuttal (even if it’s true). If  you cannot point out the unicorns, no rebuttal).

Being polite or reasonable has achieved sweet fanny adams. If you look back at the arguments presented by both sides over the past two years, you see reason on one side and hot air on the other.

Look at the leaders of the movement. That’s the movement.

So, as I said, Pete, is this what you voted for? Are these leaders the ones you expected?

Do you not think your hopes of sovereignty and independence have been hijacked by Some pretty dodgy characters?


Edit:

Actually, almost forgot, the vitriol is not “because someone disagrees with me”. Couldn’t give a toss. The vitriol is because, a lot of people, for a variety of reasons that have failed to stand up to scrutiny, have lead our entire nation into a pointless and damaging pile of shit. This affects me directly, along with those I love and the country I love. This isn’t a college debate, this is real.
You fight for what is real and you fight to protect thise you care about (metaphorically). It’s no longer academic. 
Does anyone think this is just going to go away?

Ok, the damage possible is still in the “if” category, but, seriously, does anyone think this is going well?

Do you all think that the resentment is going to deepen or fade out?
Because I think it will deepen. Because I think, ultimately, Pete’s finer ideals are a minority position and the reality will be much darker.

And, yes, I dread a Corbyn Government too. I don’t think he gives a toss anout the lefty middle class or his hipster groupies. His way is a return to the 70’s. I remember them.

[jwi]

"A rise in the number of low-skilled people choosing to quit their jobs is a signal of a strong labor market. The number of UK government ministers choosing to quit suggests a red hot UK labor market." - UBS analyst

[TobyD]

And I know many Brexit supporters.

All, bar you, have bought into the UKIP/ERG version of reality. The vast majority, including close relatives of mine, are out and out racist. Their entire reason for backing leave is based on immigration (in fact, in most cases, it isn’t even European immigrants they’re worried about and they cannot understand that Brexit isn’t going to stop the kind of immigrants they have nightmares about).

And, yes, I dread a Corbyn Government too. I don’t think he gives a toss anout the lefty middle class or his hipster groupies. His way is a return to the 70’s. I remember them.

Matt I recognize that particular Brexit attitude on immigration from people I know in Devon. It's particularly galling that the some of strongest anti'immigrant' feelings are in areas like South Devon with very little ethnic diversity. (NB I did say some, I know there are some genuine issues in some areas.)
It's particularly heartwarming however that what seems to unite many people on here is a real conviction that Corbyn is a total waste of space. I'm sure he's a really nice old chap and everything, but a fucking useless politician. I have no idea what anyone sees in him.

[Oldmanmatt]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/16/westminster-battle-mps-brexit-car-plant-workers?CMP=fb_gu
 

[TobyD]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/18/theresa-may-brexit-cards-on-table-now-it-is-everyone-elses-turn

The Tory party has always been a treacherous beast, but once it used to conduct its assassination attempts with a degree of politesse. The cabal of Brexit ultras are the men who put the cock into peacocking.

 Jeremy Corbyn decries the government for being “in chaos”, which is obviously true but also a convenient way of avoiding clarification of his ultimate intentions. Mr Corbyn is a career-long Europhobe who displayed not an ounce of conviction for remaining within the EU during the referendum, demanded the triggering of Article 50 the morning after, and has not once since expressed a scintilla of remorse about Brexit.

Some reasonably measured comment in the Observer today

[mrjonathanr]

I rather thought Stewart Lee’s writing too pretentious to be really funny. I might have been wrong.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/18/no-column-brexit-is-only-way-forward

[TobyD]

I rather thought Stewart Lee’s writing too pretentious to be really funny. I might have been wrong.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/18/no-column-brexit-is-only-way-forward

Great piece thanks for posting.

Today, labour policy wonks try to rebrand Brexit: Jeremy Corbyn to set out Labour alternative to PM's Brexit plan

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/18/jeremy-corbyn-to-set-out-labour-alternative-to-pms-brexit-plan?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

'Good Brexit' eh? So that's no plans at all, other than say we'll spend loads of money; which as everyone knows we'll have plenty of after Brexit won't we.

[tomtom]

This is excellent.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/19/brexit-class-labour-conservative-leave-peoples-vote?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[tregiffian]

Did people not vote in the first, binding, referendum or was it aliens and animals?