[Bradders]

With Trump being political dead wood

Hold on, I think you're getting a bit ahead of yourself there! Nearly 70m people have just voted for him in the biggest turn out in decades. I'd say he's far from being dead wood, and you can see that in some of the comments coming out about 2024. There's a strong likelihood that the Republican nominee in 2024 (unless it's Trump himself) will need his backing.

I genuinely can't see it going another way. If the Democrats try to charge him for anything criminal it's likely to only incite those who voted for him, as opposed to convincing them he actually is criminal - unless the evidence is completely incontrovertible. Even then it won't convince many; I think we in the UK completely underestimate just how much his base love him.

[Will Hunt]

LET ME DREAM!

[Bradders]

Ha sorry, got to face it, the Republican nominee in 2024 will be either Trump himself, one of his children or someone explicitly endorsed by him.

[Scouse D]

Ha sorry, got to face it, the Republican nominee in 2024 will be either Trump himself, one of his children or someone explicitly endorsed by him.

Or not.

Just because something seems plausible in the heat of the moment doesn't mean it is going to happen. Then again I've never been a fan of armchair punditry.
There are many many possible paths that could be taken in America. Let us just revel in the removal from office of this imbecile.

[TobyD]

Either we conclude that his base is brainwashed, a bit dim, and voting along narrow personal interest lines (low tax, traditional values etc) ignorant of the wider consequences, or we conclude that his base are as smart as most and they are perfectly aware of what they are voting for; namely, a racist demagogue. I conclude the latter at this stage and hold them accountable as I would anyone else.

... and that is why populists will continue to win. When the liberal left look down their noses at people who regard themselves as ordinary (and they are) they get pissed off very understandably,  and vote with a middle finger. 
People who voted trump did so for a thousand different reasons,  some reasonable,  face it. Its perfectly possible to vote for a politician while  disliking them because you agree with some of their policies,  that does not make you a bad person or culpable for their actions.  It's not just some base of deranged activists, though they certainly exist,  its millions of normal American people. 

[Scouse D]

... and that is why populists will continue to win. 

Or not

Another very definite assertation there and a total dismissal of the notion that, you know, maybe populists wont continue to win.

[spidermonkey09]

Either we conclude that his base is brainwashed, a bit dim, and voting along narrow personal interest lines (low tax, traditional values etc) ignorant of the wider consequences, or we conclude that his base are as smart as most and they are perfectly aware of what they are voting for; namely, a racist demagogue. I conclude the latter at this stage and hold them accountable as I would anyone else.

... and that is why populists will continue to win. When the liberal left look down their noses at people who regard themselves as ordinary (and they are) they get pissed off very understandably,  and vote with a middle finger. 
People who voted trump did so for a thousand different reasons,  some reasonable,  face it. Its perfectly possible to vote for a politician while  disliking them because you agree with some of their policies,  that does not make you a bad person or culpable for their actions.  It's not just some base of deranged activists, though they certainly exist,  its millions of normal American people.

The populists have literally just lost. They've just lost and somehow it's already about what the moderates, who lest we forget have just won, handily, need to think about.

There is not a single piece out there loftily opining that the populist right need to think about whether they are being too racist/sexist /fascist to ever win the popular vote again. No doubt you will read Gerard Baker in The Times tomorrow, where for the third day running he will bitterly argue that actually Trump won the argument. When Corbyn made that laughable claim last year no doubt you rightly laughed him out of town.

This isn't meant to be aimed at you specifically but it is increasingly winding me up how this is somehow turning into a post mortem for the Democrats when they have successfully prised an autocratic leader from the white House. No mean feat.

[ali k]

All very good points Jim. I think Biden has recognised the threat of riling up Trump’s base and also the more moderate Trump supporters, and is pitching his speeches accordingly.

You can imagine the sort of things Trump would have been saying at this point to rub a victory into the Democrats faces if it had gone the other way.

[Bradders]

... and that is why populists will continue to win. 

Or not

Another very definite assertation there and a total dismissal of the notion that, you know, maybe populists wont continue to win.

I wish I had your optimism. I want him to fuck off and leave us all in peace, but that's just not going to happen.

That said, the way he's going could reduce his influence if he ends up destroying his credibility. It's interesting that all the Rupert Murdoch owned press are now starting to imply that he needs to do the decent thing and concede. Best case scenario now is that Biden wins all of Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia, whilst Trump explodes in a whirlwind of lies and fabrications, thus undermining his potential future authority.

Also, love this

Newt Gingrich, the former Republican Speaker, said: "I'm the angriest I have been in six decades. You have a group of corrupt people who have contempt for the American people trying to steal the presidency."[/qoute]

Yeah, they're called the Trumps!

populists have literally just lost. They've just lost and somehow it's already about what the moderates, who lest we forget have just won, handily, need to think about.

There is not a single piece out there loftily opining that the populist right need to think about whether they are being too racist/sexist /fascist to ever win the popular vote again.

I sort of agree Jim, the problem though is a) how completely the left underestimated the level of Trump's support, and b) their complete inability to understand why those people vote for him (and in fact, how many of their policies actually push people towards the right). Yes they've won this time, but by a far tighter margin than expected and, again, 70m people voted for Trump in spite of everything that's happened. If that doesn't deserve some introspection then I don't know what would.

[ali k]

I think Jim’s point is that Trump’s rhetoric has done the exact same thing in reverse and that Republicans/populists should now be doing some introspection.

It can’t be overstated how rare it is for the incumbent not to win a second term (I think 3? presidents in the history of the US).

[sdm]

That said, the way he's going could reduce his influence if he ends up destroying his credibility.

He could only destroy his credibility in the eyes of someone who has been living under a rock for at least the past 4 years.

It's interesting that all the Rupert Murdoch owned press are now starting to imply that he needs to do the decent thing and concede.

He's no longer useful to Murdoch so it's time to stick the knife in and distance themselves.

The way the right wing press suddenly switched tone on him as soon as it became clear he was going to lose shows how self serving they have been. Suddenly it isn't ok any more to broadcast his lies unchallenged.

I don't know what will happen next. Maybe the republicans will have had enough of flirting with fascism and will return to a more moderate candidate. Or maybe he'll be replaced by a Trump 2.0 with similar ideas, goals and (lack of) morals to Trump but with more intelligence and competency.

[danm]

Sorry to piss on everyone's chips, but Trump has fulfilled his purpose for the right - he's successfully helped polarised the US to a degree not seen since the civil war, whilst packing the legislature at every level with right wing leaning judges. If the demographics aren't looking like they are moving in your favour, and for the GOP they weren't, this is a great strategy really. Not a good one for democracy though.

[Scouse D]

I get what you're saying Dan but he is no longer the president and that is a whole lot better than the Republicans  having trump in power for four more years.

I think we all get that trump has irreversibly changed the political landscape but I cant see how this is anything other than a seismic win the Democrats and also for the world. Yes, America is a bit fucked, but not as fucked as it would've been.

[spidermonkey09]

I think Jim’s point is that Trump’s rhetoric has done the exact same thing in reverse and that Republicans/populists should now be doing some introspection.

It can’t be overstated how rare it is for the incumbent not to win a second term (I think 3? presidents in the history of the US).

Precisely. This thread is useful in that regard. https://twitter.com/seth_j_hill/status/1324733142091984902?s=19

I accept the margin is tighter than some polls expected but not as much as people perceive. When these votes are counted he will have equalled Trumps electoral college win in 2016,which was universally described as a big win. If that was true then, then it is true now.

Regarding why people are voting for Trump, clearly there are lessons to learn here, but my point is more why this is top of the news agenda and not Republicans learning from some moderation, which would make a nice change. Also, in a two horse race its to be expected that there will be a relatively even distribution of votes so I'm not convinced there is a huge amount to learn from the fact that over 40% of people in the US voted republican. This is historic and unlikely to change in the short term. The relevant issue as I see it is the drift of the republican party from right wing neoliberalism in the 1980s all the way to neo fascism right now. That it what needs thinking about and hopefully addressing (god knows how!).

I tend to agree with Scouse D, things are still shit in America but this can only be a win. Hopefully the Republicans will come to their senses in the next 4 years but in the absence of that we must continue to call out extremism where we see it and not accept the slide of the left to accepting the barbarism that the republican party currently represent.

I appreciate these are provocative words to use but the signs of the slide of the American right have been there for a long time and if the Democrats and the wider liberal left don't push back progressivism is fucked.

[Somebody's Fool]

But large swathes of USA, are not going to be jumping for joy like British liberals are. They know from bitter experience what Biden’s politics are. He will forget about them and not improve their material circumstances or job prospects. 

While Trump is clearly a liar and a charlatan, at least he could be bothered to speak to these people and give them some hope that things might change. Even if he had no inclination of making good on his promises.

Populism tends to flourish when representative democracy is failing. And while both parties prop up neoliberalism while it lurches from one crisis to another, I can’t see the appetite for populism diminishing to any significant degree.

I’m still of the opinion that ultimately people will vote in economic self interest. Not for who has the best manners.

[205Chris]

[sdm]

Precisely. This thread is useful in that regard. https://twitter.com/seth_j_hill/status/1324733142091984902?s=19

The gist of the thread seems to be that incumbents never lose. Except during crises such as severe recessions or wars.

It then downplays the fact that we are in the middle of the most severe health and economic crisis in living memory and that the health crisis has been handled worse in America than almost every country in the world.

[Scouse D]

, at least he could be bothered to speak to these people and give them some hope that things might change. Even if he had no inclination of making good on his promises.

Your wording suggests that he had anything but malevolence in his intentions. Speaking to the people should not be conflated with speaking for the people. This was a concerted effort to take down western democracy using right wing ideologies with the overt backing of Putin, Farage et al, Bolsanaro and the oh so fucked up Steve Bannon.
(I get that liberalism aint the panacea, but for me the priority is the survival of the human race on this planet and that requires a global approach particularly towards climate change - if extreme political views can just fucking hang fire for a couple of decades that would be tip top for me)

[Somebody's Fool]

Don’t get me wrong, I’m no Trump apologist and couldn’t agree more re climate.

I guess the point I was trying to make is that if the Republicans thought the ground was fertile enough to use populism as an electoral strategy post Obama/Biden, then it’s not just the Republicans who should be examining their politics in order to stop it happening again.

[mrjonathanr]

Biden has won PA. Joe Biden is the next President of the USA.

[tomtom]

And Trump will hear the news while he’s on the golf course...

Slice.

[mrjonathanr]

Trump’s next press conference was scheduled at 11.30 am in Philadelphia. Handily, that’s right now.

[Offwidth]

But large swathes of USA, are not going to be jumping for joy like British liberals are. They know from bitter experience what Biden’s politics are. He will forget about them and not improve their material circumstances or job prospects. 

While Trump is clearly a liar and a charlatan, at least he could be bothered to speak to these people and give them some hope that things might change. Even if he had no inclination of making good on his promises.

Populism tends to flourish when representative democracy is failing. And while both parties prop up neoliberalism while it lurches from one crisis to another, I can’t see the appetite for populism diminishing to any significant degree.

I’m still of the opinion that ultimately people will vote in economic self interest. Not for who has the best manners.

That's all considerably understating Trump's risks and overstating Biden's problems.  On pandemic response, on climate change and environmental issues, on US healthcare, in working with other western democracies and essential international organisations (especially WHO), on helping the working american rather than bullshitting about doing so, in reducing dangerous political nepotism,  this election will make a massive difference.

[Will Hunt]

Trump put out a tweet earlier saying "Big press conference at the Four Seasons, Philadelphia - 11.30am".

Then one of his staff called the Four Seasons hotel and they didn't want him anywhere near them. So, rather than change the venue to another hotel or conference centre (and thus admit to a minor clerical error), they googled Four Seasons Philadelphia and held the press conference in the parking lot of...

Four Seasons Total Landscaping, Philadelphia. A small company on a back street in the outskirts of Philly opposite a crematorium and two doors down from the Fantasy Island pr0n shop, which offers adult DVDs, lotions and novelty gifts.

I'm reeling from this. Can you imagine being the owner and picking up the phone to that?

[andy popp]

I actually know that corner of the city because there's US Citizen and Immigration Services centre there that I've had to visit several times. No insult to the residents, but it's a particularly obscure and godforsaken place, miles from the city centre. Also, for some reason, brick and mortar pr0n shops are still an actual thing in the US.

Incidentally, Fours Seasons Landscaping is minority and female owned. I'm not convinced they explicitly signed on for this.