[seankenny]

I think that if he loses this election the Trump dynasty will never get into power again. There are a string of actions/investigations/enquiries into Trump - and families finances and business practices that are largely stalled as whilst he is POTUS he can't go to prison!

So something I'm wondering is, how much of a populist vote winner is down to the character of the populist himself, and how much down to structural reasons? Does it take the combination of both to launch a Trump, Johnson, Modi, etc, or are overwhelming structural weaknesses (which I believe we see in the US) enough. In short, could a drier, more boring politician tap into the dark vein that Trump taps into, or does it require the weird personality? And does that personality - or voters believing its there - have a dynastic sheen - like father, like son?

I suspect we shall find out.

[Oldmanmatt]

.
[/quote]

I think that if he loses this election the Trump dynasty will never get into power again. There are a string of actions/investigations/enquiries into Trump - and families finances and business practices that are largely stalled as whilst he is POTUS he can't go to prison!

.


So something I'm wondering is, how much of a populist vote winner is down to the character of the populist himself, and how much down to structural reasons? Does it take the combination of both to launch a Trump, Johnson, Modi, etc, or are overwhelming structural weaknesses (which I believe we see in the US) enough. In short, could a drier, more boring politician tap into the dark vein that Trump taps into, or does it require the weird personality? And does that personality - or voters believing its there - have a dynastic sheen - like father, like son?

I suspect we shall find out

I think it’s the combination.

I think many of his supporters see in him/Johnson a person who voices their inner prejudice, cocks a leg to all those smart arses that have always told them they were wrong and gets away with crimes that they never saw as “real” crimes in the first place.
The lynch mob. Ask them, they’ll swear down that murder is wrong/a sin/the worst crime, but them lynch the first suspect on the flimsiest evidence without a trace of irony

[TobyD]

I think that if he loses this election the Trump dynasty will never get into power again. There are a string of actions/investigations/enquiries into Trump - and families finances and business practices that are largely stalled as whilst he is POTUS he can't go to prison!

So something I'm wondering is, how much of a populist vote winner is down to the character of the populist himself, and how much down to structural reasons? Does it take the combination of both to launch a Trump, Johnson, Modi, etc, or are overwhelming structural weaknesses (which I believe we see in the US) enough. In short, could a drier, more boring politician tap into the dark vein that Trump taps into, or does it require the weird personality? And does that personality - or voters believing its there - have a dynastic sheen - like father, like son?

I suspect we shall find out.

I definitely think that the issue is structural rather than personal. Trump is himself not the problem, if you see it / him as a problem, it's a complex range of political, cultural and social issues in which a lot ( about 52% in the UK) feel disaffected and unrepresented.

[tomtom]

You're all forgetting that he's largely/partly responsible for creating this situation - for his benefit.

He's spent the last 5 years driving division. Stoking hate. Pitching one against another. Black vs White, Rich vs Poor, etc.. etc.. etc.. Because thats the only way he could get elected....

Yes there is now an electorate shaped by this - but that doesnt mean it has to stay in that shape.

[seankenny]

I definitely think that the issue is structural rather than personal. Trump is himself not the problem, if you see it / him as a problem, it's a complex range of political, cultural and social issues in which a lot ( about 52% in the UK) feel disaffected and unrepresented.

Yes, a populist leader is only going to thrive in those circumstances. They are necessary for populism, but are they sufficient? For a leader to get away with the sort of thing Trump gets away with, does it require anything more than just the bad structural issues? I guess I'm wondering how much of Trumpism survives without Trump, or with Trump as just a nominal figurehead.

[galpinos]

You're all forgetting that he's largely/partly responsible for creating this situation - for his benefit.

He's spent the last 5 years driving division. Stoking hate. Pitching one against another. Black vs White, Rich vs Poor, etc.. etc.. etc.. Because thats the only way he could get elected....

Yes there is now an electorate shaped by this - but that doesnt mean it has to stay in that shape.

I think you are giving him too much credit. Politics seems a lot more polarised, more partisan than it used to and is very tied to people's identity, and that includes here and over the pond. Brexit anyone? In Trumps case, I think he's often just voicing what people have thought but never dared utter. You can blame him from legitimising the thoughts, but not that people have them.

At least one would hope that the Democrats now know that spending four years telling Trump voters they're thick is not the way to get them to change their vote.

[Johnny Brown]

Edit: beat me to it.

Brexit seems to have done pretty well as a populist movement without Farage gaining any sort of position, and no doubt will survive Bojo's defenestration. But we'll see. Let's hope this is the start of the supertanker's turn.

[SA Chris]

With it being this close, can we say that we actually have something to be grateful to CV-19 for? I'm sure he lost many votes by handling it so badly. What a strange situation.

[mrjonathanr]

So something I'm wondering is, how much of a populist vote winner is down to the character of the populist himself, and how much down to structural reasons? Does it take the combination of both to launch a Trump, Johnson, Modi, etc, or are overwhelming structural weaknesses (which I believe we see in the US) enough. In short, could a drier, more boring politician tap into the dark vein that Trump taps into, or does it require the weird personality? And does that personality - or voters believing its there - have a dynastic sheen - like father, like son?

I suspect we shall find out.

I think he is, to some voters, incredibly charismatic. But I suspect there will be cleverer people  who will see where he has successfully played it and think they can do better.

[tomtom]

Vote counts starting to be updated now.... Bidens narrow lead widens to near 12k in nevada. Gap down to 16k in Georgia (theres going to be only a few hundred in that I bet) and PA is narrowing all the time...

I wanted a thumping Biden victory to shove Trumps nose in it. But actually this is almost better (if it works out) - watching is lead slowly trickle away state by state. Like sand slipping through his (small) fingers...

[seankenny]

So something I'm wondering is, how much of a populist vote winner is down to the character of the populist himself, and how much down to structural reasons? blah blah blah

I think he is, to some voters, incredibly charismatic. But I suspect there will be cleverer people  who will see where he has successfully played it and think they can do better.

I agree, Trump is clearly charismatic to his followers. But how replicable is this?

What got me thinking along these lines was this blog here:
https://www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2018/september/the-mass-psychology-of-trumpism

"The successful demagogue activates this feeling [of wounded narcissism] by possessing the typical qualities of the individuals who follow him, but in what Adorno, quoting Freud, called a ‘clearly marked and pure form’ that gives the impression ‘of greater force and of more freedom of libido’. In Adorno’s words, ‘the superman has to resemble the follower and appear as his “enlargement”.’ The leader ‘completes’ the follower’s self-image. This helps explain the phenomenon of the ‘great little man’, the ‘Aw shucks’, ‘just folks’ demagogue like Huey Long. He ‘seems to be the enlargement of the subject’s own personality, a collective projection of himself, rather than an image of the father’ – a Trump, in other words, rather than a Washington or Roosevelt."

I have not yet read the piece it's based on (it's easily available, just been busy) and I have no idea if this kind of analysis - done in the wake of the 1930s - has been superceded or is now considered outdated by those who study such things.

But if it's true, it takes something more than just insight and cunning, and the question then becomes: does one's political system offer easy routes into power for flawed and narcissistic people?

[SA Chris]

Vote counts starting to be updated now.... Bidens narrow lead widens to near 12k in nevada. Gap down to 16k in Georgia (theres going to be only a few hundred in that I bet) and PA is narrowing all the time...

He's contesting both these, be funny if he still holds them!

[mrjonathanr]

@Sean
I would say two things. Firstly, the leader as an empowered projection of the person the voter wants to be sounds perfectly plausible. People may identify strongly with their leaders. With Trump, there’s a folksy intimacy, enormous self confidence, and a near total absence of detail. He’s the guy next door who’s on your side, feels it the way you do and all without anything annoyingly concrete to impede the fantasy.

I‘d be surprised if the GOP doesn’t find a similar successor. S/he might not be a carbon copy,  but I fear that someone still charismatic and faux-ordinary, but less so than Trump, with more discipline and strategy, could exploit the weaknesses in the US system of governance better than Trump has.

[tomtom]

Spent 30 min or so looking at the numbers in the unfinished counties in Georgia and PA... I think Trump will win Georgia by a few hundred - maybe a thousand or two (its looking like a stretch too far for Biden there).

But Biden is going to easily do PA I think.. Its a 100k difference, but still 500k votes to go. Some counties like Philadelphia Cty have 80%+ Biden voting split and there’s still 125000 votes to count there..

[andy popp]

Nevada looks all but certain now and the Associated Press are sticking by their call for Arizona. Still, going to have to go to bed without an answer, a surefire recipe for waking at 3am.

[tomtom]

Nevada looks all but certain now and the Associated Press are sticking by their call for Arizona. Still, going to have to go to bed without an answer, a surefire recipe for waking at 3am.

Yup. Third night of bad sleep beckons! Yeah Nevada has started to grow (lead) again.

[Will Hunt]

Trump's lead in Georgia now down to 3600 votes. Still reportedly 5% of votes to count in Atlanta and surroundings. It's happening.

[Offwidth]

Latest from cnn

"Georgia's Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger will not provide another update again tonight, according to his press secretary Ari Schaffer.

At last update, the state still had 14,097 votes left to count.

President Trump is currently leading Biden by a mere 1,805 votes."

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-biden-election-results-11-05-20/index.html

Other good news for the Democrats is that one Georgia senate race has gone to a run-off in January and the other may go that way as well. If both seats go to the democrats the senate is 50 50 and the deciding vote will be the new VP.

[tomtom]

Spent 30 min or so looking at the numbers in the unfinished counties in Georgia and PA... I think Trump will win Georgia by a few hundred - maybe a thousand or two (its looking like a stretch too far for Biden there).

But Biden is going to easily do PA I think.. Its a 100k difference, but still 500k votes to go. Some counties like Philadelphia Cty have 80%+ Biden voting split and there’s still 125000 votes to count there..

Please let this be over soon (the pre-legal phase at least). As above PA will be a Biden win now - but think he’ll lose Georgia by a couple of hundred. Surely a recount there whatever happens. 

[spidermonkey09]

Watching that Trump address last night was chilling. The last stand of a fascist dictator hopefully.

[andy popp]

Watching that Trump address last night was chilling. The last stand of a fascist dictator hopefully.

Remarkable that three of the major news channels quickly cut him off and began checking off his lies.

I'm exhausted at this point.

[Will Hunt]

The associated press figures are showing a Trump lead of 463 votes in Georgia. But not entirely sure how many more to count or how many will be military ballots.

[Dac]

Here’s a nice little website if you want to see the numbers as they change:

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

[James Malloch]

Here’s a nice little website if you want to see the numbers as they change:

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

Really interesting page, thanks. Looking very good for Biden!

[sheavi]

https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/

Live figures for quick glance updates