[ali k]

that should be game over.

Bar the lawsuits.

Anyone know if these are brought by the Republican Party or by Trump himself (i.e. who will be paying for them?)

[Will Hunt]

Out of interest, what are the legal challenges that they'll make? I heard something on the news this morning about Pennsylvania having different rules on counting late-arriving ballots but I'm not clear on what these rules are and how Trump will seek to challenge or exploit them? Presumably these challenges will come to nothing, even if the court has been bolstered with Trump appointees?

[ali k]

Out of interest, what are the legal challenges that they'll make? I'm not clear on what these rules are and how Trump will seek to challenge or exploit them? Presumably these challenges will come to nothing, even if the court has been bolstered with Trump appointees?

Former top Republican lawyer who was responsible for bringing these exact challenges in previous elections was on Today programme saying there’s no basis at all.

I’m just interested in whose money he’ll be wasting. I expect it’s more about creating the narrative of a ‘stolen election’ among the base rather than expecting a win.

[seankenny]

Whilst we are all waiting for the result, I can heartily recommend this interview with a Democrat polling and communications expert. Lots of really good ideas for the British left to take away on messaging, how to appeal to socially conservative voters, etc.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07/david-shor-cancel-culture-2020-election-theory-polls.html

[Bradders]

Out of interest, what are the legal challenges that they'll make? I heard something on the news this morning about Pennsylvania having different rules on counting late-arriving ballots but I'm not clear on what these rules are and how Trump will seek to challenge or exploit them? Presumably these challenges will come to nothing, even if the court has been bolstered with Trump appointees?

Main one I've seen is around being able to monitor the vote counting process. As I understand it, both sides are able to have people watching the count to prevent any irregularities, and the Trump campaign are claiming that they've been denied access to do this in some areas, which I suppose they could then claim might invalidate some results or force a recount if there is evidence of being denied access.

Of course I also saw that in one instance people were protesting outside a counting station, demanding access, despite there already being over 200 people in there monitoring it already!

that should be game over.

Bar the lawsuits.

Anyone know if these are brought by the Republican Party or by Trump himself (i.e. who will be paying for them?)

Republican party, although really they're one and the same atm. Being paid for by donors.

[Bradders]

Biden looks likely winner now.
He’s likely not going to have the senate which means he won’t be able to do much.
Sadly the real story is not if he just scrapes a win but the fact that half the USA seem to think it was okay to have a odious narcissist in charge for another 4 years....that’s really sad for all of us

Not only that, but 4 million more people appear to have voted for him this time than last! 

[andy popp]

Out of interest, what are the legal challenges that they'll make? I'm not clear on what these rules are and how Trump will seek to challenge or exploit them? Presumably these challenges will come to nothing, even if the court has been bolstered with Trump appointees?

Former top Republican lawyer who was responsible for bringing these exact challenges in previous elections was on Today programme saying there’s no basis at all.

I’m just interested in whose money he’ll be wasting. I expect it’s more about creating the narrative of a ‘stolen election’ among the base rather than expecting a win.

Bradders has answered much of this. The cases vary depending on which state. In Wisconsin it's a demand for a recount (even former GOP Governor Scott Walker, a confirmed right wing nut, has said the deficit is far too large to be overcome), in Arizona it's to carry on counting, in PA it's to stop counting. PA allows the counting of mail in votes that arrive up to three days after the election so long as they're postmarked on the election day or before. In Michigan it's about providing access for monitors. The Republicans have launched more than 400 suits in 44 states over the few months (very many in PA, which everyone has known would be critical). Many are completely vexatious and few have succeeded and every expert comment I've seen on the post election suits has said they are without basis and will not succeed. It's worth noting that there is no direct appeal to the Supreme Court, that's simply not something he can do. It reached the SCOTUS in 2000 only after going through many lower courts.

So Ali is right that this is entirely about building a narrative. The core of the narrative is that ballots are mysteriously being "found" - they're not being found, they have them, they just haven't finished counting them.

I wonder if the GOP are paying or the campaign?

[James Malloch]

It sounds like Arizona is now in doubt for Biden. That would be pretty shit...

[Bradders]

It sounds like Arizona is now in doubt for Biden. That would be pretty shit...

Where are you seeing that James?

[teestub]

On the Guardian live feed, postal vote results favouring the tangerine twat and proportions pointing to the result flipping.

[Offwidth]

It's all over the live US news election reports. Latest batches in Arizona favoured Trump and closed the gap. In contrast Pennsylvania looked impossible for Biden late on Tuesday night (Trump on 55% and Biden on 44% with a quarter of votes left to count) but as the batches came in over the last 24 hours the gap closed fast... if the trend continues it now looks like a Biden win there.  Biden is the favourite overall but Trump could still squeek in clean.

One thing being rather overlooked in all these incredibly close counts is the Libertarian candidate votes were much more than the gap between Biden and Trump. The world may be thanking her.

[teestub]

https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/latest-batch-trump-gets-share-votes-he-would-need-reclaim-arizona-next-rounds-present-challenges/6169183002/

This is the article that was linked on Graun

[Oldmanmatt]

To quote NYT:
“ Jennifer Medina
Jennifer Medina, in Phoenix 3:06 AM ET
In the latest results, Trump hit the percentage he needed to stay on track to potentially win Arizona, but it may not hold. The next Maricopa release is not expected until Thursday night. ›”

Which is going to be a looonnggg wait.

Also, they’re reporting an armed crowd trying to break into the Maricopa counting station...

Edit:

This is a slightly earlier dispatch, but since they stopped counting at this point, for the night, it should still hold true:

“
Jennifer Medina, in Phoenix 2:54 AM ET
Maricopa County (Phoenix) just posted its last numbers for the night, and Trump narrowed Biden’s edge in Arizona slightly — to 68,390 votes, or less than three percentage points. ”

[tomtom]

RE Maricopa: Rough calcs. (some rounding done)

70 000 Biden lead (its 69 but...)
340 000 votes left to count.

That means to win Trump needs > 205 000 votes leaving Biden with  < 135 000 of the 340k remaining.

[spidermonkey09]

Whether Biden holds Arizona or not, he remains on track to overhaul Trump in Pennsylvania which gets the job done.

[tomtom]

Whether Biden holds Arizona or not, he remains on track to overhaul Trump in Pennsylvania which gets the job done.

Just! And Georgia isn't safe Trump yet!!

[luckyjez]

Wall Street Journal now showing Biden on 264 and Trump remaining on 214.

[spidermonkey09]

Whether Biden holds Arizona or not, he remains on track to overhaul Trump in Pennsylvania which gets the job done.

Just! And Georgia isn't safe Trump yet!!

Yes, just, but the analysis I'm reading doesn't view Pennsylvania as a nailbiter, more a matter of time. Lets hope they are right! Georgia looks to be headed for a recount whichever way it goes and will be tight either way. Arizona; Trump has only just pulled the required margin from the latest block of votes and has to maintain it over a long period of time. I reckon Biden will hold it, but was clearly an early call from Fox and AP. Nevada looks increasingly like job done as the votes to be counted are from the metro Vegas area.

[andy popp]

Friends in PA (Philly and Lehigh Valley) seem to think it will go the right way, in the end.

[Oldmanmatt]

When the sun starts to rise, in an hour or so and the morning news cycle starts to be consumed; I fear the chances of violence might be quite acute, with such a close race stalled for many hours yet.

Given the very clear anticipation that this would be the likely scenario for this election, it seems stupid that “relief crews” weren’t put in place to allow the count to continue without a break. Surely that wasn’t beyond the capability of the various state infrastructures?

[spidermonkey09]

Georgia now very close with the votes that just landed. They came in 80% for Biden. He needs 60-62% his way from the 4% of votes outstanding to overhaul Trump according to CNN.

[JohnM]

Another possible upside, and this may be a misreading of how the votes have fallen, could be that a Republican win in the Senate but a loss of the White House provides an indication that the electorate wanted to vote Republican but was put off by Trump. It might help put the brakes on populism and avoid a Trump or someone like them on the ticket next time.

I'm sorry Will, but this is pure magical thinking. I bet you can get some pretty good odds on Don Jr. in 2024.

Ivanka.

I don't want to start a new birther conspiracy but I don't think she was born in the US.

[JohnM]

Another possible upside, and this may be a misreading of how the votes have fallen, could be that a Republican win in the Senate but a loss of the White House provides an indication that the electorate wanted to vote Republican but was put off by Trump. It might help put the brakes on populism and avoid a Trump or someone like them on the ticket next time.

I'm sorry Will, but this is pure magical thinking. I bet you can get some pretty good odds on Don Jr. in 2024.

Ivanka.

I don't want to start a new birther conspiracy but I don't think she was born in the US.

Actually ignore that I was getting confused with the mum.

[tomtom]

I think that if he loses this election the Trump dynasty will never get into power again. There are a string of actions/investigations/enquiries into Trump - and families finances and business practices that are largely stalled as whilst he is POTUS he can't go to prison!

[JohnM]

I think that if he loses this election the Trump dynasty will never get into power again. There are a string of actions/investigations/enquiries into Trump - and families finances and business practices that are largely stalled as whilst he is POTUS he can't go to prison!

I wonder if he will ever end up in court in NY for all the tax stuff. He has changed his residency to Florida now but I don't suppose that would make much difference. Apart from having been (ok we don't know for sure yet) POTUS is there anything that differentiates Trump from any other US citizen when it comes to tax avoidance proceedings?