[Will Hunt]

Chapeau to Toby

Ahem. 

I think you're all mad for thinking he won't win. I expect him to retain office and will jump for joy if I'm proven wrong.

[andy popp]

Trump may still win, but it is categorically not over. Pennsylvania may not declare until Friday.

[tim palmer]

It isn't over, Biden just needs Nevada, Wisconsin and one more state.  Seems possible/probable (he says crossing everything).

[Will Hunt]

I'm trying to cling to my original pessimism like a life raft. In truth, the pollsters got to me and I allowed myself to become slightly optimistic - a grave mistake, I fear. It all depends on how many mail-in ballots there are in these swing states, what proportion they are Democrat, and whether or not they ever get counted.

Honestly, between the House and the Senate I don't care. I just want the orange cunt to get beat.

[Footwork]

I just want Trump to lose all protection being President entails and he can be dragged through the courts for the rest of his life.

[SA Chris]

This feels like the Brexit results, a slow motion car crash, with the "leader" crowing about fraud and demanding recounts  until it was apparent they actually won.

[Bonjoy]

Really wishing I'd made that emotional hedge bet now at 50-1 odds earlier this week...

[spidermonkey09]

I'm no expert but this is moving Biden's way as far as I can see. Huge overreaction from the betting markets this morning which has spooked the UK observers. Biden went out to 4.2 and is now back in to 1.29. Trump was heavy odds on when I woke up and is now out to 4.4. If you took them seriously earlier then they should be taken even more seriously now more votes have been counted and what is left to count should favour Biden by virtue of being absentee/mail in ballots.

Obviously a clusterfuck of Trump claiming fraud is incoming but I think Biden is winning this election as it stands.

[Bradders]

Crikey I hope you're right SM!

[JohnM]

Really wishing I'd made that emotional hedge bet now at 50-1 odds earlier this week...

I never saw odds as good as that for a Trump win. I put £100 on a Trump win as I had a feeling he might win despite what the polls were saying and I am still not 100% convinced otherwise. I would get £275 back so like I said nothing close to 50-1!

[erm, sam]

Crikey I hope you're right SM!

It almost doesn't matter though. More people voted for Trump this election than last and Republicans will control the Senate.  There will not be pressure on Republicans to look for a different vision of Republicanism as there would have been if there had been a "blue wave". Senate means Biden will be able to get little of note done, Trumps persecution by the left complex will be given even fuller rein, Don Jr is poised to refresh the brand when needed. A LOT of people like how Trump makes them feel and they are not going to go away.
Biden in charge slows down the train crash but probably wont do much to actually stop it.

[sdm]

Really wishing I'd made that emotional hedge bet now at 50-1 odds earlier this week...

I never saw odds as good as that for a Trump win. I put £100 on a Trump win as I had a feeling he might win despite what the polls were saying and I am still not 100% convinced otherwise. I would get £275 back so like I said nothing close to 50-1!

50-1 would have been an easy decision. I didn't realise odds anywhere near that had been on offer.

If nothing else, with how close this election has always been, and with the margins of error, you could have been almost certain of being able to get the odds to hedge at some point to remove your risk.

[spidermonkey09]

Crikey I hope you're right SM!

It almost doesn't matter though. More people voted for Trump this election than last and Republicans will control the Senate.  There will not be pressure on Republicans to look for a different vision of Republicanism as there would have been if there had been a "blue wave". Senate means Biden will be able to get little of note done, Trumps persecution by the left complex will be given even fuller rein, Don Jr is poised to refresh the brand when needed. A LOT of people like how Trump makes them feel and they are not going to go away.
Biden in charge slows down the train crash but probably wont do much to actually stop it.

All these are good points but I will take what I can get at this stage!

Biden has just taken the lead in Michigan with more absentee and mail in to come. He should be fine in Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan now. If he can hang on in Nevada its job done before Pennsylvania gets called.

[Bonjoy]

I saw those odds generally bandied about SM, no idea how credible they were, I've never placed a bet in my life.
For example: https://www.freetips.com/bookie-specials/donald-trump-us-election-betvictor-20201020-0015/

[spidermonkey09]

I saw those odds generally bandied about SM, no idea how credible they were, I've never placed a bet in my life.
For example: https://www.freetips.com/bookie-specials/donald-trump-us-election-betvictor-20201020-0015/

Special signup offers with a maximum bet of £1-£5 I suspect. I haven't seen 50/1 for Trump anywhere on an actual market, if I'd seen anything over 3/1 beforehand I'd have been all over it like a rash! JohnM's odds are about the average over the last few days.

For context, Trump is drifting by the minute. Out to spot 4.7 now; about 7/2 in fractional terms. Thats the longest I have seen him on an actual market. Edit: Trump 5.5 now.

[Offwidth]

For a clear win Wisconsin would have had to have gone for Trump. Mitchigan was always looking good for  a small margin Biden win (as county swings were consistently for Biden and it was so close last time). It looks like a Biden win overall now and possibly even a clear win.

Still Will deserves headgear as well for how close it has been.

[Oldmanmatt]

For a clear win Wisconsin would have had to have gone for Trump. Mitchigan was always looking good for  a small margin Biden win (as county swings were consistently for Biden and it was so close last time). It looks like a Biden win overall now and possibly even a clear win.

Still Will deserves headgear as well for how close it (  has been)*.

*is.

[Will Hunt]

It looks like a Biden win overall now and possibly even a clear win.
... for how close it has been.

Offwidth just cost Biden the election.

[andy popp]

I now think a narrow Biden win is marginally more likely, but it's going to be a largely Pyrrhic victory.

[spidermonkey09]

I now think a narrow Biden win is marginally more likely, but it's going to be a largely Pyrrhic victory.

Even if Biden can do little good, the fact that a Biden win would prevent further harm being done is a cause for relief.

[Will Hunt]

I now think a narrow Biden win is marginally more likely, but it's going to be a largely Pyrrhic victory.

Even if Biden can do little good, the fact that a Biden win would prevent further harm being done is a cause for relief.

Another possible upside, and this may be a misreading of how the votes have fallen, could be that a Republican win in the Senate but a loss of the White House provides an indication that the electorate wanted to vote Republican but was put off by Trump. It might help put the brakes on populism and avoid a Trump or someone like them on the ticket next time.

[andy popp]

Another possible upside, and this may be a misreading of how the votes have fallen, could be that a Republican win in the Senate but a loss of the White House provides an indication that the electorate wanted to vote Republican but was put off by Trump. It might help put the brakes on populism and avoid a Trump or someone like them on the ticket next time.

I'm sorry Will, but this is pure magical thinking. I bet you can get some pretty good odds on Don Jr. in 2024.

[tomtom]

I now think a narrow Biden win is marginally more likely, but it's going to be a largely Pyrrhic victory.

Even if Biden can do little good, the fact that a Biden win would prevent further harm being done is a cause for relief.

This. Stop or at least stem the rot.

[Oldmanmatt]

Another possible upside, and this may be a misreading of how the votes have fallen, could be that a Republican win in the Senate but a loss of the White House provides an indication that the electorate wanted to vote Republican but was put off by Trump. It might help put the brakes on populism and avoid a Trump or someone like them on the ticket next time.

I'm sorry Will, but this is pure magical thinking. I bet you can get some pretty good odds on Don Jr. in 2024.

A very different prospect, without four years of endless Whitehouse tweeting.

[Oldmanmatt]

Anybody able to explain why NYT have Biden currently on 227 and Sky only 224 EC?