[tomtom]

Yes, when you watch it he's clearly in discomfort. Standing there in a strange mix of trying to suck his gut in so he doesnt look fat - whilst trying not to look out of breath.

Saw a tweet from a US doctor who suggested in a 'no shit sherlock' tone that it wasnt surprising he had antibodies in his blood test today - given the 8mg of antibodies he was given on Friday/Sat as part of his treatment!

[SA Chris]

About the same as we should read into her 74 year old mums employer 😀

She looks good for 74. 😀

[TobyD]

Trump's latest Twitter-diahorrea stream looks like desperation. Which isn't to say it won't be effective with some people.  The regeneron free for all Americans must be the most unlikely election promise ever.

Good to see the VP debate at least appeared to be between adults.

[Oldmanmatt]

I don’t see him maintaining very much support in the Military, the tone of reporting within the community is on balance negative and he just keeps shitting on them:
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/10/08/trump-suggests-he-may-have-contracted-coronavirus-from-gold-star-families/?utm_campaign=Socialflow+MIL&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR3gMd7JNhyjqK9QHzoxRJGmKm-ef1Kz_USxuqHPlpAcFeGo1Tv3JOViacU

[TobyD]

I don’t see him maintaining very much support in the Military, the tone of reporting within the community is on balance negative and he just keeps shitting on them:
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/10/08/trump-suggests-he-may-have-contracted-coronavirus-from-gold-star-families/?utm_campaign=Socialflow+MIL&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR3gMd7JNhyjqK9QHzoxRJGmKm-ef1Kz_USxuqHPlpAcFeGo1Tv3JOViacU

Even the usually Republican supporting Times columnist Gerald Baker writes today that he thinks that the American people are just tired of his attention seeking now. Humdrum though the VP debate was, both Harris and Pence made Trumps performance look really infantile. 

I see Trump is hoping to do a rally this weekend; I'm sure people will be stupid enough to sign up for this one, but really?
In a telephone interview widely broadcast today Trump seems to mute the phone to cough in a very ill sounding manner,  and generally sounds pretty awful. 

[James Malloch]

Mitch McConnel:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/08/politics/mitch-mcconnell-donald-trump-coronavirus-protocols/index.html

"I actually haven't been to the White House since August 6, because my impression was their approach to how to handle this was different than mine and what I insisted that we do in the Senate, which is to wear a mask and practice social distancing," said McConnell.

[tomtom]

Yeah / he looks pretty ashen faced/pissed off when he gives that quote too... wonder how many in the GOP were secretly hoping it was a bad dose..

[Oldmanmatt]

Yeah / he looks pretty ashen faced/pissed off when he gives that quote too... wonder how many in the GOP were secretly hoping it was a bad dose..

Not yet convinced it wasn’t.

Have you listened to his interview on Fox? Pretty damn wheezy and definitely coughing, considering he’s supposedly been “symptom free” for two days according to his doctor.
Anyway, I thought days 8-10 from onset of symptoms were the critical ones? Which are tomorrow and Sunday, no?

[tomtom]

Quite - and no one knows when he may have first contracted it.

May well be a second bite...

[TobyD]

https://rockandice.com/climbing-news/tommy-caldwell-trump-is-going-to-ruin-rock-climbing/

A totally unsurprising opinion given that I'd have thought 99.9% of climbers would probably agree. 

I've been sure so far that Trump was going to pull it out of the bag somehow,  but at the moment all the reports seem to indicate that hes struggling,  and sounding increasingly desperate. Even pundits like John Sopel have been muttering that indications are that Biden is doing well, hes usually talking up Trumps chances.
However,  I still have a nasty feeling that Trump has something up his sleeve and may end up 'winning' somehow...

[JamieG]

I suspect that he will just declare that he has won on election night, since a lot of the blue votes are likely to be mail in ballots and will take longer to count. So whilst it might look good for trump at first it is likely it will shift from red to blue as these are counted (which may take days). Hence all the the talking about voter fraud from mail in ballots, he's trying to make these seem illegitimate. Then I suspect that there will be a legal battle possibly ending in a supreme court decision, hence why they are trying to push through that right wing lunatic at the moment. As far as I can tell that seems to be the 'plan'. Plus a few other tricks like voter suppression and intimidation. Hopefully it all blows up in his face.

[andy popp]

I suspect that he will just declare that he has won on election night, since a lot of the blue votes are likely to be mail in ballots and will take longer to count.

There is massive in person early voting going on in many states and counting these will not suffer the same delays as mail in. This early voting is completely dominated by Democratic voters. Republicans better be praying for fine weather on November 3rd, far from guaranteed across large swathes of the North-east and Midwest.

[Sasquatch]

I suspect that he will just declare that he has won on election night, since a lot of the blue votes are likely to be mail in ballots and will take longer to count.

There is massive in person early voting going on in many states and counting these will not suffer the same delays as mail in. This early voting is completely dominated by Democratic voters. Republicans better be praying for fine weather on November 3rd, far from guaranteed across large swathes of the North-east and Midwest.

Yup.  This is what I'm seeing/hearing in Alaska as well.  I think the fact that Alaska is a swing state is a pretty shocking indictment of Trump and Trumpist Politics.  Both our house and senate seat seem in play as well which is crazy. 

[seankenny]

Not really Trump per se, but definitely related to Trumpism:

https://newrepublic.com/article/159662/libertarian-walks-into-bear-book-review-free-town-project

A tale of libertarians, failing collective goods... and bears.

[Oldmanmatt]

Not really Trump per se, but definitely related to Trumpism:

https://newrepublic.com/article/159662/libertarian-walks-into-bear-book-review-free-town-project

A tale of libertarians, failing collective goods... and bears.

Perhaps worth noting:
Toxoplasmosis is not exclusive to non-primate mammals...

[TobyD]

Not really Trump per se, but definitely related to Trumpism:

https://newrepublic.com/article/159662/libertarian-walks-into-bear-book-review-free-town-project

A tale of libertarians, failing collective goods... and bears.

Perhaps worth noting:
Toxoplasmosis is not exclusive to non-primate mammals...

I know that Irvine Welsh novels aren't exactly science,  but wasn't that what one of the characters in Trainspotting died from?

Apparently,  if the election result is disputed in the courts for ages and it gets to the inauguration day without being resolved, the leader of the house of representatives becomes president.  I do think that would be preferable to Trump,  but, as the Times column says today, precisely noone will have voted for that.

[Offwidth]

This will cheer you up Andy

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/25/biden-trump-polls-elderly-suburban-women-voters

As much as state results are hard to predict Trump can't lose on every key demographic compared to 2016 and win without weirdly exceptional turnouts from the demographics that favour him. It looks to me now to be most likely (and an increasing probability of this) for a clear win for Biden (ie beyond likely legal challenge shenanigans) unless something exceptional happens in the next week. I cant see how a clear Trump win emerges (ie with no long legal disputes in some states). Trump needs to win nearly all of the swing states tracked here:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/24/us-election-polls-tracker-trump-biden-swing-states

Sure the numbers were wrong last time but not by the margins we see this time.

[Sasquatch]

I really think much of the wrong polling in 2016 had to do with voter apathy for the middle and moderate left.  I don't see that this year at all.  Those two groups are highly motivated while the moderate right has more apathy. 

[webbo]

On the new Springsteen album on the track House of a thousand guitars
The criminal clown has stolen the throne
He steals what he can never own
May the truth ring out from every small town bar
And we’ll light up the house of a thousand guitars

One can only hope.

[ali k]

I really think much of the wrong polling in 2016 had to do with voter apathy for the middle and moderate left.

I could be wrong but I suspect there may be parallels with the UK polling errors from 2017. In 2019 Labour were holding on to the hope that despite awful polling before the election “the pollsters were wrong” last time. But then got trounced.

This time maybe the Republicans are the ones clinging on to the same hope. Fingers crossed anyway.

[jwi]

Now I have spent some time looking at US polls. I fail to see how Trump can win this election, barring a more massive voter suppression than in previous elections. Even if I assume that the pollsters have failed to reach/understand a large group of Trump supporters it looks like Biden is likely to win. Assuming that the polls are of normal first-world standard and that voter suppression is only marginally more successful than last time, I would say that Biden's winning in a blow out.

[Wil]

A mildly terrifying episode from Radiolab

"There’s plenty of speculation about what Donald Trump might do in the wake of the election. Would he dispute the results if he loses? Would he simply refuse to leave office, or even try to use the military to maintain control?"

This one looks into the wargaming for what happens if Trump decides to try any of the above. Seems unlikely, but there are mechanisms that can work in his favour.

[TobyD]

Now I have spent some time looking at US polls. I fail to see how Trump can win this election, barring a more massive voter suppression than in previous elections. Even if I assume that the pollsters have failed to reach/understand a large group of Trump supporters it looks like Biden is likely to win. Assuming that the polls are of normal first-world standard and that voter suppression is only marginally more successful than last time, I would say that Biden's winning in a blow out.

I still think that he will remain in office whether it's by supreme court decision, gerrymandering,  voter suppression,  or the success of his outstanding policies of denying climate change,  being racist and retweeting every conspiracy theory he sees. I very much hope to be proved wrong but I'd still bet on him.

[spidermonkey09]

https://www.axios.com/trump-claim-election-victory-ballots-97eb12b9-5e35-402f-9ea3-0ccfb47f613f.html?utm_campaign=organic&utm_medium=socialshare&utm_source=twitter

Quite a chilling read. My money is on Biden winning this election but there will be some shenanigans I have no doubt. An important week...

[Bradders]

Can anyone explain why it might take longer to count mail in ballots than votes cast in person? Something to do with verifying it's valid presumably?

Even if it does take longer per vote it seems bizarre that we might not have a result for days after; surely you just get more people in to do the count.