[petejh]

Most likely outcomes?

1. trump dies from covid, or remains so ill for so long he can't be considered a viable candidate in the election for POTUS.
2. trump recovers just in time, and gets re-elected on the back of his 'triumphant battle against covid'.
3. trump recovers just in time, and gets beaten for being trump.

Hope it's 1, too ill. Suspect it will be 3.

[Falling Down]

Hope it’s 3.

[tomtom]

I hope it’s some form of three. 1 would probably lead to all sorts of complications.

Anyway - this will take a couple of weeks or longer to play out...

[andy popp]

I want to see him and the GOP utterly crushed at the election.

[TobyD]

Most likely outcomes?

1. trump dies from covid, or remains so ill for so long he can't be considered a viable candidate in the election for POTUS.
2. trump recovers just in time, and gets re-elected on the back of his 'triumphant battle against covid'.
3. trump recovers just in time, and gets beaten for being trump.

Hope it's 1, too ill. Suspect it will be 3.

There's a significant amount of weakness in a line of leadership succession in which they're all pretty elderly. Trump - Pence - Pelosi... Not very secure during the current pandemic really.

I suspect that he'll recover and it'll be spun as a glorious victory over the virus. I'm not sure that the whole thing will actually change anything politically. It really doesn't seem like the sort of thing that would sway many undecided voters.

[Bradders]

I suspect that he'll recover and it'll be spun as a glorious victory over the virus. I'm not sure that the whole thing will actually change anything politically. It really doesn't seem like the sort of thing that would sway many undecided voters.

It partially depends on how severe it is for him, and it could really go either way.

I think the significant impact is on what it prevents; it's stopped his rallies, his ability to hold events and engage with his base,  probably stopped the televised debates (which I think he'd see as a strong point) and, most of all, holds the narrative firmly on a topic he's particularly weak on as opposed to allowing him to move it on to other areas.

All of that doesn't help him make up ground he apparently needed even before this happened.

[Will Hunt]

I think you're all mad for thinking he won't win. I expect him to retain office and will jump for joy if I'm proven wrong.

[andy popp]

I think you're all mad for thinking he won't win.

I've never said he can't/won't win and have repeatedly said he very well may.

[Will Hunt]

Maybe "all" is too strong. I've not catalogued everyone's opinion but the vibe I'm picking up is that people expect a win for Biden.
My experience of the last four years is that if something shit can happen then it will happen. Unfortunately.

[Oldmanmatt]

Maybe "all" is too strong. I've not catalogued everyone's opinion but the vibe I'm picking up is that people expect a win for Biden.
My experience of the last four years is that if something shit can happen then it will happen. Unfortunately.

Apparently Trump is already well enough to be discharged from hospital...

[moose]

Maybe "all" is too strong. I've not catalogued everyone's opinion but the vibe I'm picking up is that people expect a win for Biden.
My experience of the last four years is that if something shit can happen then it will happen. Unfortunately.

538 make it roughly 70/30 for the Dems... which is roughly what they made it last time.  The problem seems to be that the popular vote share is relatively easy to model (a hefty margin for Biden) but the electoral college is very unbalanced and gerrymandered.  So, small numbers of votes in swing states have hugely outsized effects - which makes it within the margin of error for Trump to win.  Last time: Hilary got millions more votes overall but the margin was redundant; Trump's votes were efficiently distributed where it mattered.

[Bradders]

I think you're all mad for thinking he won't win. I expect him to retain office and will jump for joy if I'm proven wrong.

Note I said he apparently needs to make up ground. As you say he could very well profit from the bizarre structure of the electoral college.

[TobyD]

I think you're all mad for thinking he won't win. I expect him to retain office and will jump for joy if I'm proven wrong.

Note I said he apparently needs to make up ground. As you say he could very well profit from the bizarre structure of the electoral college.

It's all very well complaining about voting systems, but brushing off winning the electoral college but not the popular vote as an underhand technicality is rather supercilious and if this were the case he would have won fairly within the existing system. 
Voting systems are variously complicated and unfair to someone,  but this is a different argument and it's not going to change soon. Complaining about it is like saying that in the UK the Lib Dems did awfully well in the election last year, which in a way they did, being close to winning 80 or 90 seats, but actually second place is worth nothing, just like noone gets medals for winning the popular vote.  Biden needs to win where it matters, I hope his team have their social media campaign in Florida etc streamlined and working overtime on telling everyone that Trump is weak, incompetent and dangerous.  The USA and the world would frankly be a safer place if he had no power, but I suspect that he will scrape through it again. 

NB I wasn't trying to get at anyone on here re voting systems,  it's a commonly cited complaint in the media which irks me a little. 

[IanP]

538 make it roughly 70/30 for the Dems... which is roughly what they made it last time.  The problem seems to be that the popular vote share is relatively easy to model (a hefty margin for Biden) but the electoral college is very unbalanced and gerrymandered.  So, small numbers of votes in swing states have hugely outsized effects - which makes it within the margin of error for Trump to win.  Last time: Hilary got millions more votes overall but the margin was redundant; Trump's votes were efficiently distributed where it mattered.

538 now has it approx 80/20 for Biden, as election gets closer and no move on poles getting tighter their likelihood of Biden win increases.  Still 20% is not nothing for Trump and who the hell knows what mad news could come next so no room for complacency.   

On the electoral college thing I believe their view is that if Biden wins popular vote by 5% or more he's pretty much certain to win overall but at tighter margins the Repulicans advantages in this area start to be more significant.   They have a 10% chance of Trump losing popular vote but winning electoral college, so thats about half of his overall chance of winning.

[jwi]

Do not look too much at 538, a.k.a. overfitting.com

Look at the polls in the swing-states and remember that the total error is about two times the sampling error. So if the 95% confidence interval is ±3% due to sampling errors the actual 95% confidence intervall including methodological errors (mostly due to figuring out how successful voter suppression is going to be) is about ±6%.

This will give you a good idea of how close an election is, and is the reason I gave Hillary a 50/50 chance last time.

I will look into the probabilities closer to the election, but roughly speaking it seems like Biden has an edge unless the methodological error is larger than what it historically has been.

[IanP]

I'm certain your statistics knowledge is greater than mine but on the overfitting side its seems that quite a lot of people are taking the position that Trump won when he wasn't expected last time so therefore the same thing is certain or likely to happen this time.

Looking at info around polls (national and state) and also around the other issues in US (including Covid and fact that Trump is now a known, and for many very bad, quantity) it seems to me plausible that Trump is less likely (potentially significantly less) to win than last time.  Doesn't mean that it can't happen and Trump also has levers of government that he can potentially attempt to use to his advantage, but I hold on too hope.

Though I don't have a good record on this from 2016 (Brexit and Trump)!

[SA Chris]

Note I said he apparently needs to make up ground. As you say he could very well profit from the bizarre structure of the electoral college.

After reading about it on here, I've tried googling the electoral college system to try and find out more, but I admit I still don't get it...

[largeruk]

After reading about it on here, I've tried googling the electoral college system to try and find out more, but I admit I still don't get it...

This is a decent explainer of the Presidential voting process - https://www.usa.gov/election#content.

This BBC one includes an outline of some of the weaknesses of the current split of electors by state - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-15764542.

[SA Chris]

Nice one , thanks

[Sasquatch]

I think voter turnout is the key question, and we don't know what will happen.  way too many variables.  One interesting one that I've noticed a substantial change in is the push across all online platforms for voter registration and turnout.  It'll be interesting to see if that improves younger voter turnout.  If so, then that could certainly sway the election.

[Falling Down]

The virus is ripping through the White House. There are 28 people now confirmed positive.

Donald Trump
Melania Trump
Kayleigh McEnany
Hope Hicks
Kellyanne Conway
Chris Christie
Sen Mike Lee
Sen Thom Tillis
Sen Ron Johnson
Ronna McDaniel
John Jenkins
Bill Stepien
Nick Luna
1x WH jr staffer
3x reporters
11x Ohio debate staff

The Trump people and admin are literally insane.


He’s just tweeted a request to sign up to join the “Trump Election Poll Watchers”. Jeez.

[SA Chris]

https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/06/top-donald-trump-aides-daughter-claims-covid-stricken-president-is-doing-badly-13380022/

Whole thing is bizarre.

[Ged]

Not sure we should read too much into the angry social media ramblings of a 15 year old...

[tomtom]

Not sure we should read too much into the angry social media ramblings of a 15 year old...

About the same as we should read into her 74 year old mums employer 😀

[Oldmanmatt]

Holy crap, I’d read articles but not watched it.

He was struggling to breath.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2020/oct/06/footage-suggests-trump-was-short-of-breath-during-maskless-photo-op-at-white-house-video?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1601979094