[andy popp]

We'll never hear the end of it now. He'll bang on about it forever.

God, I know, that's almost the worst part of it. Him and all the Trumpers among my FB friends' families.

[Oldmanmatt]

a second term for a president presiding over a comfortable economy, is pretty normal.
Most entrenched voters are not affected a Jot by what they will view as the Brouhaha of political life and will vote in their personal interests only.
The (ultimately tiny number of) swing voters, will be mainly influenced by how they feel in the two weeks/month or so, leading up to actually casting their vote.

Unfortunately (? Not that I wish ill on them) the policies of Trump have not (yet?) impacted enough individuals negatively to influence their vote; I suspect.

Much like the UK. The majority of negative impact here (after 10 years of Tory rule) has landed on groups who would never vote Tory anyway, so unless the rest of the population suddenly develop an as yet unseen social conscience; nothing will change.

Here, as there, I would posit that the lack of awareness of both Tory and GOP leaderships, will lead them into adopting polices that negatively impact enough “middle ground” individuals for the flip to occur. That or a recession.

The latter really isn’t in the control of Governments (it could be, but it isn’t), however, they invariably bear the blame.

Ultimately, a large number (most?) of people don’t like politicians of any stripe, tend to think “they’re all the same” and therefore only pick the “least worst” based on the circumstances of their daily life and individual prosperity.
Don’t expect change until those things tangibly degrade across enough of the middle ground.

Offwidth. All of the rest of the rhetoric and philosophy (left and right) is just window dressing and background noise to the busy, overworked and “just getting by” that occupy the vast middle ground of western democracies. No more relevant to everyday life than Kant or Spinoza.

[Oldmanmatt]

Actually, I should have added this:

Yesterday, I completed my Command and Control Firefighting refresher module (all senior officers have to re-qualify every five years) and I sat through, again, the same lecture, that I had to a week earlier on my Medical First Aid onboard Ships refresher and will almost certainly hear in my Proficiency in Survival craft and Rescue boats refresher and definitely in the Human Element in Leadership and Management (M) (a full 5 days in bloody Glasgow uni for that bugger) over the next two weeks.

Anyway, the lecture revolves around a study, carried out in the UK, about ten years ago.
Various groups, of about 20 individuals, of varying backgrounds and ages, are placed in a room to “fill out a form”. Thinking theyare there for entirely different reasons from reality.
Then they set off a fire alarm and record the reaction.
The shortest recorded period, before even a single individual got up to  see if they could see anything happening outside the room they were in, was seven minutes.
Not one of the test groups evacuated, unless a suitably dressed “Fire Marshal” instructed them to.

People suck.

Incidentally, as an aside, if the alarm is replaced by a recorded voice, stating there is a fire, nobody ignored it and nobody questioned ifitwas “real”.

Edit:

To me this sounds analogous to the Media and it’s relationship to theworld at large. The study is more complex than described here, also looking at environments (such as a ship’s Bridge of Engine control room) where a variety of alarms are located and how even well trained individuals actually miss import alarms amongst lesser indicators. Pilots are often put inthat position too. 

[TobyD]

I'd tend to agree with you Matt, that he'll get re-elected; but there have been a number of commentators writing recently that if the democrats can keep focus on his character and not performance, he'll lose. They have not always been European left wingers either. I'm sceptical but the general opinion seems to be that people in the us approve broadly (overall) of his performance, but profoundly dislike him as a character.

[Offwidth]

The shocking thing is how normal this has become.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/feb/02/trump-kansas-city-missouri-super-bowl-tweet

[sheavi]

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/02/romney-impeach-trump/606127/

Quite newsworthy

[TobyD]

Fully acquitted, to the surprise of noone. The Americast BBC podcast has a really good look at the Iowa caucus, worth a listen.

[SA Chris]

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/02/romney-impeach-trump/606127/

Quite newsworthy

One shining example.

Rest are like turkeys given the option of voting against Thanksgiving.

[Offwidth]

Interesting development

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/18/trump-barr-judges-emergency-meeting-concerns

[eastside]

It's like a slow motion trainwreck.

It would be almost funny if it weren't for the sinister, nazi-esque undertone of all of this.

[TobyD]

Who's more likely to beat Trump, a 78 year old billionaire or a 78 year old socialist?

[andy popp]

I couldn't watch last night but by all accounts Bloomberg was a train wreck. He doesn't belong on the ballot and doesn't deserve to be.

[Oldmanmatt]

Is there some way we could, sort of, mush them together?

Bernbloom?

Bernberg?

[TobyD]

I couldn't watch last night but by all accounts Bloomberg was a train wreck. He doesn't belong on the ballot and doesn't deserve to be.

Interesting.  Would you favour Sanders? If so do you not feel that hes in danger of doing a Corbyn  (ie inspiring to the already believers, whilst repulsive to the undecided and the apathetic).
I'm genuinely asking from a pretty neutral standpoint as I don't really have a horse in the race, other, obviously,  than I'd really like Trump not to be president. 

[spidermonkey09]

I would vote for Sanders but I'm not totally convinced any of them will beat Trump. It disturbs me how far to the right the political pendulum has swung there. Buttigieg is thoroughly depressing as the 'moderate' candidate, totally plastic, like an American Trudeau. At least he is a bit younger though!

My work conversations over the past few weeks with American financial people suggest an extreme wariness about a Sanders nomination. This is a) not surprising given they are private equity people who would clearly see their industry face challenges under a Sanders presidency but b) pretty depressing given the Trumpian alternative. It reinforces my depressing suspicion that what people fundamentally care about is feathering their own nests and sod everything else. Selfish, yes; but god knows how to address it.

[andy popp]

I couldn't watch last night but by all accounts Bloomberg was a train wreck. He doesn't belong on the ballot and doesn't deserve to be.

Yes, how ghastly to have a ... non-partisan

Except that he really isn't.

[andy popp]

I couldn't watch last night but by all accounts Bloomberg was a train wreck. He doesn't belong on the ballot and doesn't deserve to be.

Interesting.  Would you favour Sanders?

It's a genuine conundrum, and everyone is trying to second guess this thing called "electability" (which can only be assessed ex poste anyway). I'll preface this with two things. My views are hypothetical, I don't have a vote - though I should have one by 2024. Second, come the general election I would vote for any of these candidates, except Bloomberg. I know a lot of people who feel this way, but also plenty who don't. I acknowledge my friends skew very heavily left and most are very loyal to Bernie (though, to my knowledge, only one of these people didn't vote for Hillary in 2016). Actually, one more thing, I think Trump has a very strong chance of winning again, no matter who he is running against.

In the primaries, healthcare is the overriding issue for me. That rules out just about anyone but Bernie and Warren. I think both, and Bernie especially, can win in the popular vote but both may well lose in the electoral college. The VP pick will be important. If I was forced to pick I would like to see Warren/Julian Castro. I think Biden is over but I suppose he might revive. I think Trump would eviscerate him in a debate. I think Buttigieg will fade. Klobuchar will not get the nomination.

Bernie is the undoubted frontrunner right now but we shouldn't forget the DNC - are they prepared to accept that he's the party's choice?

[JamieG]

I couldn't watch last night but by all accounts Bloomberg was a train wreck. He doesn't belong on the ballot and doesn't deserve to be.

Yes, how ghastly to have a ... non-partisan

Except that he really isn't.

He's also quite probably both sexist and racist based on what I can tell. So in my opinion most definitely pretty ghastly.

[andy popp]

There's that too. He bought his way onto last night's stage and in the process managed to conjure up some myth about his electability. That completely evaporated last night.

[JamieG]

I think Trump has a very strong chance of winning again, no matter who he is running against.

I agree with this. Although I would be surprised if it was an actual legitimate win. I think they will quite literally just try to cheat or lie about the result and declare Trump winner. Or he will simply refuse to hand over the keys. They've seen that there is basically no being held accountable so why not. And the consequences for him once he's out of office look pretty dire.

[Nigel]

fringe politicians like Sanders.

What makes Sanders a "fringe" politician? Genuine question!

[teestub]

Micheal Bloomberg built a huge technology/ media business from zero through the 1980s and 1990s, serving clients in the financial sector. Not a time and place where political correctness was especially emphasised (books like Liars Poker and Bombardiers give accurate portrayals). Given that, it is actually astonishing that there isn't more mud sticking to him and suggests his standards were likely quite high in context. Judging him by the scorched-earth woke standards of, say, a contemporary university humanities faculty is ridiculous and is a road to damning a whole generation of successful business people in favour of Corbynesque fringe politicians like Sanders.

Which other presidents have been business people beside the current incumbent? Hopefully there are some slightly more successful counter examples!

Edit ah ha found a list https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States_by_previous_experience makes for some interesting reading re: previous businessmen!

[andy popp]

Judging him by the scorched-earth woke standards of, say, a contemporary university humanities faculty is ridiculous

Do you really have to be so fucking tedious Toby? Anyway, I'll let all my non-Bloomberg supporting friends - the shop floor manufacturing worker turned union organiser, the other union organiser, the several teachers, the school psychologist (ok, this one has a PhD), the several retirees, the several small business owners, the social worker, the pastor, a couple of people working middle management corporate jobs, the charity worker, a couple of people genuinely struggling to keep their heads above water, the attorney, the award winning brewer (sounds hipster but no college degree), the stay at home mum,, and, yes, a couple of college professors working hard at hard pressed state schools serving local communities - that they're all just too "woke."

Anyway, it's all ok, because boys will be boys etc.

[JamieG]

Judging him by the scorched-earth woke standards of, say, a contemporary university humanities faculty is ridiculous

Do you really have to be so fucking tedious Toby? Anyway, I'll let all my non-Bloomberg supporting friends - the shop floor manufacturing worker turned union organiser, the other union organiser, the several teachers, the school psychologist (ok, this one has a PhD), the several retirees, the several small business owners, the social worker, the pastor, a couple of people working middle management corporate jobs, the charity worker, a couple of people genuinely struggling to keep their heads above water, the attorney, the award winning brewer (sounds hipster but no college degree), the stay at home mum,, and, yes, a couple of college professors working hard at hard pressed state schools serving local communities - that they're all just too "woke."

Anyway, it's all ok, because boys will be boys etc.

Agreed! What a ridiculous thing to say! Its not like speaking out against racism and sexism only just happened in the last few years amongst 'woke' liberals. These are quite literally centuries old issues!

And even if they were only recent issues, his "stop and frisk" policies as New York major in the 2000s were controversial and disproportionately targeted minorities.

Read his quotes yourself they are not exactly all old. Many are fairly recent and pretty distasteful by the standards of almost any era.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/19/mike-bloomberg-2020-mayor-democratic-primary

[JamieG]

What about his implementation of racist policing tactics as New York major? Was that just banter too?