[seankenny]

It's nothing new is it. Some people have extremely high empathy and some have extremely low empathy while most are somewhere in the middle of the bell curve.

How is empathy measured and has anyone any compelling evidence that it’s normally distributed?

[duncan]

There is a thriving academic industry in Empathy. The EQ is one of the earliest and most popular measures. It was developed by Simon Baron-Cohen (brother of...) and colleagues but is but one of many similar scales.

Testing psychometric properties, including normality of distribution in a “typical” population, is considered good practice before releasing your new measure into the wild. Most researchers also check the normality of their data before embarking on any more detailed analysis.

[Oldmanmatt]

There is a thriving academic industry in Empathy. The EQ is one of the earliest and most popular measures. It was developed by Simon Baron-Cohen (brother of...) and colleagues but is but one of many similar scales.

Testing psychometric properties, including normality of distribution in a “typical” population, is considered good practice before releasing your new measure into the wild. Most researchers also check the normality of their data before embarking on any more detailed analysis.

Good job they didn’t conduct their research in this forum, really.

Boiled Onions!

[andy popp]

Well, here go. In some ways this feels as important as 2016. Now there are no excuses. We know he's incompetent, we know he's confused, out of his depth, and desperately insecure and narcissistic. We know he's a racist running a racist administration. We know the GOP has been almost completely captured by nativism and white supremacy. There's no claiming you didn't know what he was like or what was coming. So if you vote Republican now you embrace all they stand for. Let's see how many in this country are willing to do that.

[Falling Down]

Fingers crossed for a good set of results Andy.

[SA Chris]

Going to be interesting for sure..

[Teaboy]

What are the implications of the Dems gain control of the Congress but not the Senate? Does this mean they can veto all legislation or can the Senate set their own laws without Congress?

[andy popp]

What are the implications of the Dems gain control of the Congress but not the Senate? Does this mean they can veto all legislation or can the Senate set their own laws without Congress?

I'm not sure on that, though it undoubtedly makes legislating harder for the GOP. What it does mean is that the Democrats can launch official investigations with subpoena powers etc.

I just spent three hours canvassing a polling station in a rural part of the state, a very Trumpy area. Voting was heavy, worryingly so - the Trump base might well be as motivated as the Democrats. We progressives think the stakes could not be higher, but they actually feel just the same, that socialist/immigrant hordes are coming for them.

[TobyD]

the Trump base might well be as motivated as the Democrats. We progressives think the stakes could not be higher, but they actually feel just the same, that socialist/immigrant hordes are coming for them.

Fingers crossed for you. It has come to something when the potus repeatedly lies openly and appears to have not a shred of contrition or humanity. At least Nixon tried to cover up. I also worry about how effective Trump's cynical appeals to the baser instincts of his supporters have been.

[andy popp]

Yes, I'm relatively confident about the House, especially as we're now seeing some numbers.

[andy popp]

Confidence declining rapidly. Its always been thin, in reality.

[andy popp]

Actually, we could well be completely fucked.

[andy popp]

Yes, swinging back on the house  and a handful of midwest governorships.

[tomtom]

Woke up to the mixed news..... after going to bed with lots of hope.

[Oldmanmatt]

It looks decidedly better now than it did at 02:30.

Like us, a very divided nation. All those racists that were hiding their light...

[Offwidth]

Seems the polls were right this time. The expected Democrat House and Republican Senate gains are close to predictions.

This interview, linked to Martin Lewis's new book on the subject, discusses  the worrying effect of Trump on government departmental functions.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/sep/22/michael-lewis-trump-gambling-america

The new house majority will lead to better investigation of this and the other issues around Trump's bad behaviour that is much more publicised. As Nancy Pelosi said, checks and balances will be back in place.

[Oldmanmatt]

This will play into Trumps hands.

He now has a Congress he can blame for every failure or lack of progress.
Meanwhile, the PoTUS, The Senate and the SoCUS will be chipping away the constitution, just enough to secure minority rule for the foreseeable.

[Oldmanmatt]

Just a reminder of how flawed and “open to interpretation” the constitution is.
It isn’t necessary for the GOP to change the constitution, to reach their White supremacy goals; only pervert the interpretation, via SoCUS.
Beware all you who are not “white” people:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhagat_Singh_Thind

[Offwidth]

This will play into Trumps hands.

He now has a Congress he can blame for every failure or lack of progress.
Meanwhile, the PoTUS, The Senate and the SoCUS will be chipping away the constitution, just enough to secure minority rule for the foreseeable.

I'm optimistic as I'm amazed Trump has lasted as long as he has. His 'half life' in terms of spontaneous random self destructiveness must be much less than a full term so arguably he has already been lucky but it could see the end of him at any time. On top of that lets see what happens once all these house investigations start (Trumps ego again being his biggest risk but there are many government areas where real problems will be exposed and probably improved) and the fall out of the trade wars and what looks like a probable stock bubble and the ongoing Mueller investigations.  There are also positive signs for democrats  in terms of demographics, and much bigger youth voting numbers (linked to the campaigns around gun controls).  I also can see GOP turning on him if things turn sour in any big way.

[andy popp]

Still digesting it, including a lot of races that are probably not on the radar in the UK. I'm glad the Dems took the House, obviously, but it is a very mixed picture, and not one that has dramatically increased my optimism.

[Oldmanmatt]

Still digesting it, including a lot of races that are probably not on the radar in the UK. I'm glad the Dems took the House, obviously, but it is a very mixed picture, and not one that has dramatically increased my optimism.

Quite.

But a swift check (and please confirm), taking the House means the Dems now control some serious committees:

Ethics.
Judiciary.
Oversight.
Intelligence.
Ways and Means.
(Need to actually find out what the last one does, precisely...)

So, investigations galore?
GOP subpoenaed to death and political stalemate?

[andy popp]

Yes, politically (in terms of the make up of Congress) its a marked improvement on total GOP control. But, if we look at voting patterns, I don't think it paints a particularly rosy picture of the state of the nation. A lot of people are only holding even tighter to Trump. This has not made a Trump win in 2020 feel impossible to imagine.

[jwi]

I've always assumed that Trump will be a two terms president as the economy is fairly rosy and he hasn't betrayed his core constituency. I will not update my prior until strong evidence is given to the contrary

[Oldmanmatt]

I've always assumed that Trump will be a two terms president as the economy is fairly rosy and he hasn't betrayed his core constituency. I will not update my prior until strong evidence is given to the contrary

Nothing would surprise me now.

Hey! The Good’ole boys just elected a guy who’s been dead three weeks, into office. Nowt wrong with that system...

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/dennis-hof-nevada-assembly_us_5be299fce4b0e84388917409

[Offwidth]

Some comedy gold from the Guardian:

Trump is asked what he’d do if the Democrats try to obtain his tax returns.

He says “people don’t understand tax returns” and his returns are super complicated and processed by top firms and besides summaries he’s submitted (?) are more comprehensive.

Also his company is huge and continuously under audit - the same excuse he was making two years ago: “And it is a very big company, far bigger than you would even understand.”

“Nobody turns over a return when you’re under audit,” Trump says – as if it ever comes up.