[Oldmanmatt]

Ah right, I'd assumed it was all assumption.

I start one of my lectures with a Steven segal quote from ‘under seige’. The one where he’s the ninja cook and the lass from bay watch jumps out of a cake topless (well that’s what I remember it for anyway).

Anyway - he quite profoundly states “assumption is the mother of all fuck ups”.

Standard military parlance, tri-service.

[mr chaz]

To assume the assumed makes an ass ass out of u u and me me D... or something like that

[Offwidth]

The latest shameful statement.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/18/trump-greg-gianforte-assault-guardian-ben-jacobs

[seankenny]

Ah right, I'd assumed it was all assumption.

I start one of my lectures with a Steven segal quote from ‘under seige’. The one where he’s the ninja cook and the lass from bay watch jumps out of a cake topless (well that’s what I remember it for anyway).

Anyway - he quite profoundly states “assumption is the mother of all fuck ups”.

Standard military parlance, tri-service.

Standard newsdesk comment to cub reporters too.

[TobyD]

A quote from Trump about the Saudi journalist murder:
Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump spoke contemptuously about the murder plot: “They had a very bad original concept. It was carried out poorly and the cover-up was one of the worst in the history of cover-ups.”

Later at a dinner with military leaders, he returned to theme of how the crime was performed: “They did a bad job of execution and they did a bad job of talking about it or covering it up.”
One of the worst, perhaps since a business magnate rigged the US election with Russian assistance, and simultaneously tried to mask his history of appalling personal behaviour?

[Offwidth]

Interesting Guardian article on Trump meeting young black leaders. It seems to indicate the growing US divide is party ideological even in the black community; so many Republicans are either blind or just loyally refuse to challenge his idiocy. Besides, there is some funny-if-it-wasn't-so-worrying fact checking on his accelerating number of lies. Try and imagine such a  meeting with young black leaders in the UK!

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/26/trump-young-black-leadership-summit-white-house-east-room

[andy popp]

I don't really know what to say anymore. My wife and I actually watched the speech to the young black activists live thinking I might say meaningful about the arrest of the bombing suspect (we missed the entirely trite one minute he devoted to it at the start). At the end, we were at loss to explain what we'd just watched (and why we'd watched it). He is ever more out of control; the lead up to the midterms feel increasingly fraught and tense.

The speech itself was insane - and crazy racist too. But don't be fooled by that audience; the ideological divide is very largely racial too. In reality his support among the black community is very low and it is likely that black people, and black women in particular, will be absolutely critical to Democratic fortunes in a number of key races, such as Stacy Abrams in Georgia's gubernatorial race (just as it was black women who got Doug Jones elected over Roy Moore in Alabama). Trump is a white president for white people, and the white supremacy is increasingly naked and undisguised.

[andy popp]

There's a shooting happening right now at a synagogue in Pittsburgh; at least eight dead. Earlier in the week a white men shoot dead two black people in a grocery store in Kentucky after first trying to get into a black church. As he left the scene he was approached by another armed white man; the shooter said "don't shoot, whites don't shoot whites." A week or two ago a white man killed two black cops in an ambush in South Carolina. The pipe bomber is a white supremacist (despite being at least part Filipino). And the president regularly uses anti-semitic dog whistles - such as he did yesterday with "globalist," which provoked a shout of "Soros!" from the audience, who knew exactly what he was referring to. Perhaps the Pittsburgh shooting will prove to be radical Islamism or random, but I wouldn't bet against it being more white supremacy.

[Oldmanmatt]

The guy’s name is Robert Bowers.

Not a particularly Islamic sounding name and described as a “heavy set, white male”, so...

[tomtom]

It’s really fucked up. I can’t come up with anything more intellectual or any sort of explanation. Everything the man does seems to surpass his last act...

[mrjonathanr]

This is what fascism does.

[andy popp]

So, back from a family lunch, to even worse news. This was obviously an antisemitic hate crime. Trump has been stoking antisemitism for months and antisemitic views, codes and memes have been mainstreamed. This is Trump's to own, but he never will. He will paint himself the victim somehow (he was already doing that at a rally last night, the day the pipe bomber was arrested). Institutions are durable but they are not impervious.

[mrjonathanr]

Interesting article on the similarities between Trump’s behaviour and better known fascists. Worth reading to the end.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/30/trump-borrows-tricks-of-fascism-pittsburgh

[andy popp]

Yes, I would recommend this too (Snyder is an historian of the holocaust and fascism).

This morning's news is the announcement that he will end birthright citizenship using an executive order. There is overwhelming consensus that this would be unconstitutional. The executive order may or may not be issued but this will not come to pass. Its a stunt ahead of the midterms, as is the vile, racist scaremongering around the migrant caravan, which poses literally zero threat to the US. The only game they have left is to motivate the base to get out next Tuesday (which cannot come soon enough).

[Oldmanmatt]

Whilst I hope to be pleasantly surprised.
I don’t see these midterms giving the relief some would like. I actually think there are just too many who, overtly or secretly, love the racism.

[andy popp]

Whilst I hope to be pleasantly surprised.
I don’t see these midterms giving the relief some would like. I actually think there are just too many who, overtly or secretly, love the racism.

I think we're likely to see a very mixed picture, with advances and setbacks. I expect the Democrats to take the house - all house seats are up next week. Dems need a gain of 23 and that looks more than possible. I expect to see the GOP loosing seats in the suburbs in states that were once reliably red but are undergoing demographic change (e.g. Virginia). My house district, currently red, is looking sure to go blue after being redrawn (PA has - or had - just about the worst gerrymandering in the country until earlier this year). A Democratic house can act as an important check on the president and can start all kinds of investigations with subpoena powers etc. There will be some Dem losses too, for example in some Western states, but probably not enough to counteract the gains.

However, I feel the Senate is very unlikely to flip and for reasons of simple electoral math; only about a third of senate seats are contested this year and simply too few of those that are look vulnerable to flipping; e.g. they're just too deep red.

Its important to remember that however vocal and vile, the base is not enough to win the election by itself. In 2016 it formed a coalition with college educated whites (men and women) as well as traditional Republicans who simply wanted a tax cut and de-regulation - some members of both of those two groups (which overlap) will definitely have been turned off in the meantime. But there is still a) much gerrymandering b) unbelievable voter suppression (see Georgia) and c) the fact the electoral college assigns far greater weight to the individual voter in a largely rural (and solidly GOP) state such as Montana than it does to the individual voter in California or New York, making all elections an uphill battle for the Dems.

There are some very important Gubernatorial races too, Florida and Georgia especially.

[galpinos]

..... Gubernatorial ......

I have just learnt a new word.

[GraemeA]

..... Gubernatorial ......

I have just learnt a new word.

You never read the MASH books back in the 70's/80's 

[TobyD]

Whilst I hope to be pleasantly surprised.
I don’t see these midterms giving the relief some would like. I actually think there are just too many who, overtly or secretly, love the racism.

I agree with you Matt, extremely sadly Trump knows exactly what he's doing and is pulling out all the stops to give himself the best chance of a win in both houses. Almost every policy detail recently has at least in part been to this end. Securing the release of Andrew Bronson from Turkey to cement some more of the evangelical vote for instance. From this side of the pond it seems that the democrats really don't know what they are or how to react to Trump. Spluttering indignation at his crassness and bigotry might be an understandable reaction - it's probably how I feel about him - but it seems unlikely to win votes where it matters.

[TobyD]

From https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/27/politics/trump-jba-death-penalty-pittsburgh/index.html
President Donald Trump said Saturday that the outcome of the deadly shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue would have been different had an armed guard been in place.
"If there was an armed guard inside the temple, they would have been able to stop him," he said to reporters before boarding a flight to a pair of events later in the afternoon.

from https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-mass-shooting-in-pittsburgh-and-a-trump-visit-expose-a-divided-america/2018/10/30/93cbb0d4-dbc8-11e8-85df-7a6b4d25cfbb_story.html?utm_term=.a717bf45c374
America’s biggest tragedies often provoke moments of “thoughtful introspection and self-examination that we so rarely see in public life,” President Barack Obama said in the wake of the killing of nine worshipers at the Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston, S.C., three years ago.

[moose]

From https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/27/politics/trump-jba-death-penalty-pittsburgh/index.html
President Donald Trump said Saturday that the outcome of the deadly shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue would have been different had an armed guard been in place.
"If there was an armed guard inside the temple, they would have been able to stop him," he said to reporters before boarding a flight to a pair of events later in the afternoon.

He said similar after the Parkland school shooting:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/22/donald-trump-insists-arming-teachers-guns-shootings

blaming the victims for not being armed in an environment where guns seem entirely inappropriate.

[Teaboy]

If anyone wants to find something to smile about among this unremitting awfulness do a Twitter search on Surefire Security and Jason Wohl.

Unfortunately when you stop laughing you will be hit with the realisation that these people actually have influence over people's thoughts and voting intentions.

[andy popp]

From this side of the pond it seems that the democrats really don't know what they are or how to react to Trump. Spluttering indignation at his crassness and bigotry might be an understandable reaction - it's probably how I feel about him - but it seems unlikely to win votes where it matters.

Yes and no. A lot of people on the left are deeply unhappy with the Democratic establishment, who have refused to learn from 2016 and have done everything they can to resist the movement on the progressive wing of the party. But party structures are much looser than in the UK and there's a lot of decentralization during elections, with many campaigns, especially if they are more progressive, operating in a semi-detached fashion and reacting in tailored ways to local contexts and issues. In other words, the big picture (Pelosi, Schumer etc.) is very far from being the whole picture. This comes from direct experience; I know candidates at State and Federal levels, many people running or working for campaigns, and am involved myself as a volunteer.

[petejh]

From https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/27/politics/trump-jba-death-penalty-pittsburgh/index.html
President Donald Trump said Saturday that the outcome of the deadly shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue would have been different had an armed guard been in place.
"If there was an armed guard inside the temple, they would have been able to stop him," he said to reporters before boarding a flight to a pair of events later in the afternoon.

He said similar after the Parkland school shooting:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/22/donald-trump-insists-arming-teachers-guns-shootings

blaming the victims for not being armed in an environment where guns seem entirely inappropriate.

Sorry to disrupt the 'burn the witch-athon' here but..


We place armed guards in lots of places in the UK - airports, cities, important institutions, in patrol cars; and our population *isn't* allowed anything near the freedom to own firearms that US citizens are.
In a country with very different gun-ownership laws to the UK, is a suggestion to have armed guards at American schools, and synagogues (and mosques..?) a sign of anything other than a logical line of thought?

The response following gun massacres in the UK has been to tighten gun-ownership so that it's now almost impossible to get your hands on semi-automatic rifles or pistols.
That approach is unlikely to happen in the US for various historical reasons. Therefore placing armed guards in vulnerable targets is an obvious and rational response, but clearly less than the ideal of not having any nutters with guns (which everyone should realise is impossible to implement in the US)

Trump might be crass and a lot of other more dangerous things but FFS, if I lived in the US and sent my children to school there I'd rather it had armed guards than not.. because the country's full of gun-owning human-beings/nutters, duh.

[Will Hunt]

Sorry to disrupt the 'burn the witch-athon' here but..


We place armed guards in lots of places in the UK - airports, cities, important institutions, in patrol cars; and our population *isn't* allowed anything near the freedom to own firearms that US citizens are.
In a country with very different gun-ownership laws to the UK, is a suggestion to have armed guards at American schools, and synagogues (and mosques..?) a sign of anything other than a logical line of thought?

The response following gun massacres in the UK has been to tighten gun-ownership so that it's now almost impossible to get your hands on semi-automatic rifles or pistols.
That approach is unlikely to happen in the US for various historical reasons. Therefore placing armed guards in vulnerable targets is an obvious and rational response, but clearly less than the ideal of not having any nutters with guns (which everyone should realise is impossible to implement in the US)

Trump might be crass and a lot of other more dangerous things but FFS, if I lived in the US and sent my children to school there I'd rather it had armed guards than not.. because the country's full of gun-owning human-beings/nutters, duh.

The crux of it is, as you've identified, that it would be far preferable to have fewer people walking around with guns so that you didn't have to have armed guards in nearly all public spaces. To say that gun control is incomprehensible is to be too pessimistic and short-term in your thinking: the NRA might not always be so dominant. If you raise a generation who reject the need to personally own a gun, then you can overcome the NRA and begin to make inroads to better gun control. Teaching children from the earliest age that they cannot be safe unless a "good guy" with a gun is nearby is not the best way to go about that.