[tregiffian]

We would have considerable sums of money to spend on nurses, research projects and other good things rather than helping the EU parliament to move from Brussels to Strasbourg every other week. Oh, and topping up some monster pension pots.

[tc]

According to a leaked government assessment of Brexit's likely impact on the British economy, Britain's economic growth is predicted to be lower over the next 15 years than current expectations. With no deal, growth would be reduced by 8%; with a free trade agreement, it would be 5%; and 2% if the UK remained a member of the European Economic Area.
This means less money to "spend on nurses, research projects and other good things". Don't believe everything you see on the sides of big, red buses.

[tc]

The cost of Brexit to the UK economy is already £40bn and counting, according to the Governor of the Bank of England. This was the figure he quoted in May 2018.
I'm a huge fan of irony and this would be hilarious -- if it wasn't so fucking depressing.
 

[i.munro]

We would have considerable sums of money to spend on nurses, research projects and other good things rather than helping the EU parliament to move from Brussels to Strasbourg every other week. Oh, and topping up some monster pension pots.

Hilarious that you mention research. I had been working in scientific research for the last 20 years until Brexit killed my job.  The group I was working in is now down to about 6 people from an average of 25-ish over my time there. From what I'm hearing it's much worse outside the Russell group universities. Now none of those jobs were particularly well paid but they all paid tax & were predominantly young & healthy so  that's a lot less money for e.g. nurses - any serious suggestions?

[i.munro]

A quick Google shows that net immigration from the EU has dropped by 75,000 since the referendum.
Let's guesstimate that each of those would have been paying £6,000 a year in tax & NI
I make that 450 Million in lost tax receipts (just from the vote result).

Apparently https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35943216
the  U.K. pays £8.4 Mill to the EU so that's 442 Million lost just from that .

[i.munro]

Sorry got lost in decimal places the U.K. Contribution should have read 8.4 Billion.

[petejh]

According to a leaked government assessment of Brexit's likely impact on the British economy, Britain's economic growth is predicted to be lower over the next 15 years than current expectations. With no deal, growth would be reduced by 8%; with a free trade agreement, it would be 5%; and 2% if the UK remained a member of the European Economic Area.
This means less money to "spend on nurses, research projects and other good things". Don't believe everything you see on the sides of big, red buses.

Britain's economic growth was predicted to have fallen off a cliff and be in recession. (If Slackers was still contributing, right about now he'd point out that we haven't left yet).
Out of interest have you ever gone back through the monetary policy committee's economic forecasts quarter by quarter and year on year, and compared them to what actually happened to see how accurate each of them turned out to be? And have you looked into the margin of error involved in their - and every economic forecaster's - forecasts? Or are you doing what we all do and just taking their forecast and assuming it'll be the reality. Don't believe everything you read in economic forecasts.

[SA Chris]

True, it might be a fuckload worse than the forecast.

[i.munro]

And how accurate, historically, has the fingers-in-ears-going-na-na technique been in forecasting economic performance?

True, it might be a fuckload worse than the forecast.

Exactly! that's how forecasts work.

[petejh]

As I read somewhere: 'the only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable'.

What's your star sign?

[petejh]

Here it is.. from The Economist

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2016/01/09/a-mean-feat

''Forecasts of all sorts are especially bad at predicting downturns. Over the period, there were 220 instances in which an economy grew in one year before shrinking in the next. In its April forecasts the IMF never once foresaw the contraction looming in the next year. Even in October of the year in question, the IMF predicted that a recession had begun only half the time. To be fair, an average-growth prediction also misses 100% of recessions. One model does better, though. Our random-number generator correctly forecast the start of a recession 18% of the time.''

[Teaboy]

It wasnt that forecasters got the effects of Brexit on growth wrong it that they got the forecasts of the growth for the rest of the world wrong. No one expected the Western economies of the world to be so bouyant. UK GDP growth has suffered, we are now bottom of the growth tables for the G7 whereas for the best part of the decade we've been at or near the top. If you look at any graph the change comes very sharply in mid 2016. I can't prove one caused the other but it's difficult to explain otherwise

[A Jooser]

Maybe someone made America great again! 
Seriously though, no one can deny the UK's GDP growth has been on a steady downward trend since the final quarter of 2014.

*Modified to include the word 'growth'. GDP isn't actually on a downward trend [can't find slaps forehead emoticon]; low growth's still growth init.

[highrepute]

We  see what we want to see. I see 7 countries having an upturn in 2016 and 1 country continuing down.

[petejh]

It wasnt that forecasters got the effects of Brexit on growth wrong it that they got the forecasts of the growth for the rest of the world wrong. No one expected the Western economies of the world to be so bouyant. UK GDP growth has suffered, we are now bottom of the growth tables for the G7 whereas for the best part of the decade we've been at or near the top. If you look at any graph the change comes very sharply in mid 2016. I can't prove one caused the other but it's difficult to explain otherwise

They did get it (very) wrong. But that's another debate.
I don't really get what point you're trying to make (other than I told you so.?). No-one should be surprised the UK's economy has taken a hit since voting to leave- that was always the presumption wasn't it? Uncertainty is the driver. It just hasn't taken as much of a hit as virtually everyone forecasted, yet. You can look at that positively or negatively.  In that we have all this uncertainty, which forecastors predicted would send us into recession, but the economy's still growing against forecasts. And we're heading towards having certainty one way or another.

It's also very short-term. No-one can forecast accurately 12 months ahead. 10 years ahead... may as well find an astrologist.

[highrepute]

According to a leaked government assessment of Brexit's likely impact on the British economy, Britain's economic growth is predicted to be lower over the next 15 years than current expectations. With no deal, growth would be reduced by 8%; with a free trade agreement, it would be 5%; and 2% if the UK remained a member of the European Economic Area.
This means less money to "spend on nurses, research projects and other good things". Don't believe everything you see on the sides of big, red buses.

Britain's economic growth was predicted to have fallen off a cliff and be in recession. (If Slackers was still contributing, right about now he'd point out that we haven't left yet).
Out of interest have you ever gone back through the monetary policy committee's economic forecasts quarter by quarter and year on year, and compared them to what actually happened to see how accurate each of them turned out to be? And have you looked into the margin of error involved in their - and every economic forecaster's - forecasts? Or are you doing what we all do and just taking their forecast and assuming it'll be the reality. Don't believe everything you read in economic forecasts.

I found this post annoying - it feels like you've twisted the information to confirm with your views (but don't we all do that) - although on second reading I see your comment on the MPC is separate from your statement on the report.

The report was a leaked government report not the monetary policy committee. If you don't trust the report or the MPC then do you also not trust the government? or do you trust them to deliver a good Brexit but not predict it's affects?

This article asks how useful such reports are in way pleasing to remainers.

Read or ignore as you wish. The headline argument is "Brexit will reduce trade and investment, therefore directly harming the economy." do leavers disagree with this statement?

[A Jooser]

We  see what we want to see...

See Canada, what's going on there? We need to be drinking what they're drinking, seems in 2017 they really take off, hey!

[abarro81]

It wasnt that forecasters got the effects of Brexit on growth wrong it that they got the forecasts of the growth for the rest of the world wrong. [...]

They did get it (very) wrong. But that's another debate.
I don't really get what point you're trying to make (other than I told you so.?). [...]

His point is that they made a UK forecast based on a Rest of World forecast as an underlying trend. They may have got the UK part quite right, but with the underlying RoW forecast too pessimistic. I'm not familiar with the forecasts they made, but it's an entirely plausible explanation looking at that graph.

No-one should be surprised the UK's economy has taken a hit since voting to leave- that was always the presumption wasn't it?...

In that we have all this uncertainty, which forecastors predicted would send us into recession...

It's also very short-term. No-one can forecast accurately 12 months ahead...

In the first part quoted you basically say that the forecast of an economic hit was obvious. In the second part other people make a forecast along similar lines. In the third part you say forecasts are useless. 

[petejh]

Read or ignore as you wish. The headline argument is "Brexit will reduce trade and investment, therefore directly harming the economy." do leavers disagree with this statement?

No I completely agree with that. It's inevitable that the economy's going to take a hit. What? Leave a trade union you've been a member of for 40 years and take an unprecedented step into a new landscape that no-one is 100% certain about how it will look? And no impact at all on the economy? 

But so far it the economic impact hasn't panned out anywhere near as badly as many forecasted before (and in some cases after) the referendum, has it. That much is certain.

The difference is, like you say, in how you choose to view things. I don't view this as being the start of the end of the world. Necessity can be a powerful force for all sorts of beneficial change. Or it can be a harbinger of doom and destruction.

[petejh]

In the first part quoted you basically say that the forecast of an economic hit was obvious. In the second part other people make a forecast along similar lines. In the third part you say forecasts are useless. 

Well they aren't much of a sound basis for your reason for either doing or not doing something, are they. They are merely one small and relatively inconsequential (in the long run) piece of inaccurate prediction. Skewed by bias. Used for political purposes. Viewed through tinted lenses.

[Rocksteady]

Not fatalistic nihilism Ru, though I can perhaps see how that label is easier to quickly be dismissive of than the label of ‘optimist’.
I’m optimistic that our country - one of the few among the current EU 28 - can do just as well, or better, out of the EU as it does in the EU. Without most of the negative consequences portrayed by the doom-mongers. 

Aptly you mention it, because to me it actually seems more fatalistic to remain in the EU and accept situation normal no change - i.e. an elected government which can never really be held directly accountable and have its feet held to the fire for what happens in its jurisdiction. The EU is a fine idea and institution. I just don’t believe they should ever have been allowed the power to govern member states to the extent they now do. Better as mostly a free trade organisation - trade, standards, harmonisation all good things and came out of a desire to avoid future major conflicts.

I agree with you about the EU in general, where we differ is that you think its worth rolling the dice to get out, being optimistic about the outcome, I don’t becuse I’m not optimistic about the outcome. Or to be more accurate, I think the risks outweigh the benefits.

Pete that's a very nice articulation of what this debate is all about. I agree with Ru though.

Trouble is because each side has staked out their position before it's clear what the risks or benefits actually might really be, as and when evidence emerges that supports one or the other, people spend more time trying to rubbish the evidence than engage with it. Lots of confirmation bias.

Which is why I can't remember seeing anything that suggested any concrete benefits that might emerge from 'being in control of our own destiny', and why Leavers can't see that any of the risks have any substance.

How do Leavers on this thread feel about a second referendum once it's clear what we're getting from whatever deal is negotiated?
My feeling is that this would be fair? I've drawn an analogy before between this and a small island with 15 people where 8 voted one way and 7 the other. My feeling is that in this situation everyone would try to reconcile rather than saying put up and shut up. It's only easy to do that because most of the opposition seem faceless and anonymous. Or are annoying figurehead politicos.

[tregiffian]

Economic policy has been likened to driving a car using only the rear view mirror. Both the brake and the accelerator take 6 to 12 months to have any significant effect the extent of which is uncertain.

[abarro81]

Well they aren't much of a sound basis for your reason for either doing or not doing something, are they.

We do pretty much everything that we do on the basis of our forecasts of what the outcomes will be. Climbing moves. Job choices. Lifestyle choices. Purchasing choices. Why did you vote for Brexit if not on the basis of your own internal forecast of the likely outcomes?

[petejh]

I'm specifically talking about economic forecasts, as that's what's being discussed above.

And yes of course we make choices based somewhat on internal forecasts of likely outcomes - forecasts which are often based in instinct, intuition, gut feeling, superstition, incomplete evidence (always), religious belief, blind hope.

[abarro81]

So what internal forecast made you vote Brexit, if not an economic one (genuinely interested, I didn't bother with the first 500 million posts on here so missed you reasoning somewhat)?

I guess my point is that if we're all making forecasts, I'd most like to listen to the forecasts of those who understand the area thoroughly, even if their forecasting record is mediocre. A random number generator might, almost intuitively, have more success at predicting unforeseen events, but less at predicting the directional impacts of known events, onto which we then superimpose the unforseen onces which will inevitably occur