We would have considerable sums of money to spend on nurses, research projects and other good things rather than helping the EU parliament to move from Brussels to Strasbourg every other week. Oh, and topping up some monster pension pots.
According to a leaked government assessment of Brexit's likely impact on the British economy, Britain's economic growth is predicted to be lower over the next 15 years than current expectations. With no deal, growth would be reduced by 8%; with a free trade agreement, it would be 5%; and 2% if the UK remained a member of the European Economic Area.This means less money to "spend on nurses, research projects and other good things". Don't believe everything you see on the sides of big, red buses.
True, it might be a fuckload worse than the forecast.
It wasnt that forecasters got the effects of Brexit on growth wrong it that they got the forecasts of the growth for the rest of the world wrong. No one expected the Western economies of the world to be so bouyant. UK GDP growth has suffered, we are now bottom of the growth tables for the G7 whereas for the best part of the decade we've been at or near the top. If you look at any graph the change comes very sharply in mid 2016. I can't prove one caused the other but it's difficult to explain otherwise
Quote from: tc on August 06, 2018, 03:00:48 pmAccording to a leaked government assessment of Brexit's likely impact on the British economy, Britain's economic growth is predicted to be lower over the next 15 years than current expectations. With no deal, growth would be reduced by 8%; with a free trade agreement, it would be 5%; and 2% if the UK remained a member of the European Economic Area.This means less money to "spend on nurses, research projects and other good things". Don't believe everything you see on the sides of big, red buses.Britain's economic growth was predicted to have fallen off a cliff and be in recession. (If Slackers was still contributing, right about now he'd point out that we haven't left yet). Out of interest have you ever gone back through the monetary policy committee's economic forecasts quarter by quarter and year on year, and compared them to what actually happened to see how accurate each of them turned out to be? And have you looked into the margin of error involved in their - and every economic forecaster's - forecasts? Or are you doing what we all do and just taking their forecast and assuming it'll be the reality. Don't believe everything you read in economic forecasts.
We see what we want to see...
Quote from: Teaboy on August 06, 2018, 08:53:41 pmIt wasnt that forecasters got the effects of Brexit on growth wrong it that they got the forecasts of the growth for the rest of the world wrong. [...]They did get it (very) wrong. But that's another debate.I don't really get what point you're trying to make (other than I told you so.?). [...]
It wasnt that forecasters got the effects of Brexit on growth wrong it that they got the forecasts of the growth for the rest of the world wrong. [...]
No-one should be surprised the UK's economy has taken a hit since voting to leave- that was always the presumption wasn't it?... In that we have all this uncertainty, which forecastors predicted would send us into recession...It's also very short-term. No-one can forecast accurately 12 months ahead...
Read or ignore as you wish. The headline argument is "Brexit will reduce trade and investment, therefore directly harming the economy." do leavers disagree with this statement?
In the first part quoted you basically say that the forecast of an economic hit was obvious. In the second part other people make a forecast along similar lines. In the third part you say forecasts are useless.
Not fatalistic nihilism Ru, though I can perhaps see how that label is easier to quickly be dismissive of than the label of ‘optimist’. I’m optimistic that our country - one of the few among the current EU 28 - can do just as well, or better, out of the EU as it does in the EU. Without most of the negative consequences portrayed by the doom-mongers. Aptly you mention it, because to me it actually seems more fatalistic to remain in the EU and accept situation normal no change - i.e. an elected government which can never really be held directly accountable and have its feet held to the fire for what happens in its jurisdiction. The EU is a fine idea and institution. I just don’t believe they should ever have been allowed the power to govern member states to the extent they now do. Better as mostly a free trade organisation - trade, standards, harmonisation all good things and came out of a desire to avoid future major conflicts.
I agree with you about the EU in general, where we differ is that you think its worth rolling the dice to get out, being optimistic about the outcome, I don’t becuse I’m not optimistic about the outcome. Or to be more accurate, I think the risks outweigh the benefits.
Well they aren't much of a sound basis for your reason for either doing or not doing something, are they.