[tomtom]

I think all the economists predict some sort of downturn in growth/recession due to the uncertainty immediately after a potential brexit... Whether this is a blip or a doom spiral depends on who/what you believe/read.

That said I've not seen any sort of assessment or prediction of the good that might happen from the brexit crew - apart from Boris or Lamont or Lawson waving their arms about and saying it'll be fine...

I suspect we've had a weaker growth/recovery in the last year because of brexit uncertainty.

[ghisino]

-EU is not a democracy but rather a "technocracy".
-a true democratic reform of EU institutions is politically unfeasible - it implies at least a sort of federal budget and a central bank under political control (not "independent" as is the case for the BCE)
-even if it was technically reformed in a true democratic sense, its institutions will not function properly until the day when all EU citizens speak the same language and feel some sort of common identity. I mean all, and especially those having the least favourable socioeconomic status.

That said I can see your common identity point, and the common language may be a part of that. However, I'd like to hear more of an argument on the identity component of your post? Why does the language give the identity? Is the identity mutually exclusive?

Common language accelerates common identity as we can then access the same media and literature, for instance. It doesn't make it automatic, just easier.

As an example, Dante and Manzoni are a huge chunk of Italian cultural identity, they are compulsory reads across all kinds of secondary education, one father of written florentine and the other of written Italian  with florentine influence, they share in many ways a similar view of good and evil etc...

They would play a much smaller role if Italians still spoke their regional dialects as first language and Italian as a distant second, as was the case less than 100 yeas ago (while all Latin based, they could be as far from each other as French and Spanish...).

For instance, Latin and Greek authors are a part of Italian's elite identity, but are not as widespread as Dante and Manzoni.

The French have different "compulsory literature" with a more libertarian view of good and evil-and you can see that influence in common men and women. It is a part of what makes French and Italians different!

Politically speaking then, there are two distinct functions of identity and language. If you want a working class to act as a single political subject, you need:
1) that they loosely share a common view of good and evil (identity)
2) similar reflexes in regard to individual vs group and individual vs authority (identity)
3) the ability to interact smoothly so that the mechanisms of political compromise and representation work properly. They will not if something can get lost/purposely hidden in translation...

I think that is the big fallacy of the leftist internationalist ideal: proletarian unity is not an easy thing to achieve and demolishing national borders makes it harder, instead of easier!


Oh, I would like your comment on what happened in France in 2005. Euro treaty "a" is rejected in a referendum, and a few months later treaty "a.1", a slightly modified version, gets approved - this time with no referendum, how weird...

Concerning national banks, I don't know about other countries but in Italy its independence was technically unilateral... The bank's governor sent a letter to the ministry of economy saying "we're independent, starting from today!" (in more technical terms) and that was it. No parliament discussion. Truly democratic...

[Jaspersharpe]

I think all the economists predict some sort of downturn in growth/recession due to the uncertainty immediately after a potential brexit... Whether this is a blip or a doom spiral depends on who/what you believe/read.

That said I've not seen any sort of assessment or prediction of the good that might happen from the brexit crew - apart from Boris or Lamont or Lawson waving their arms about and saying it'll be fine...

I suspect we've had a weaker growth/recovery in the last year because of brexit uncertainty.

Yeah and I've seen it first hand. Some of our clients who do a lot of trade abroad have seen a massive downturn as companies are putting off making any big orders until after the vote. This is because they are worried about the shitstorm that may occur if we vote out and are holding off in the hope that we vote in and everything stays the same.

Really annoys me when Boris and Nigel go on about it all being scaremongering from the in side. Of course there's a certain amount of that (and there needs to be to get through to some people) but there's a reality to it as well. Sick of them saying "well they would say that" when every single organisation who has offered an opinion on the economic effects of leaving has said the same thing. They have no argument other than "everyone else is wrong".

It reminds me very much of the Scottish referendum.

Oh and re the language thing, my son did his second Chinese exam on Tuesday.

[SA Chris]

It reminds me very much of the Scottish referendum.

Was about to say exactly the same thing.

[rich d]

Saw a British woman on the news this morning who lives in Spain for part of the year in her second home and wants to vote out because she's worried about immigrants. Fucking idiot!

[Jaspersharpe]

Saw a British woman on the news this morning who lives in Spain for part of the year in her second home and wants to vote out because she's worried about immigrants. Fucking idiot!

There was some bellend on the news last night who lives in a "quintessentially English" village and who was undecided. He thought it was probably better to be in for all the sensible reasons about the economy etc but was considering voting out because his local supermarket had an aisle full of Polish food. I nearly chucked something at the tv and Mrs S said "did he really just say that?". This level of fuckwittery displayed by otherwise intelligent people is really quite scary, and common.

[lagerstarfish]

what we need to do is spread a rumour about how staying in the EU is the UK's best strategy for avoising transformation into an Islamic state when fat useless white Brits become the minority

then almost no-one will vote Leave

[SA Chris]

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/man-who-has-never-left-huddersfield-thinks-britain-should-leave-the-eu-20160524109070

[Jaspersharpe]

On a related note, does anyone actually believe that Boris is in favour of leaving for any reason other than that it would further his political career? What a prick.

The bellend in the news I mentioned (and his wife) were also bemoaning the fact that they're undecided because they respect the views of people campaigning on both sides.

I feel the total opposite although CMD and Gideon are actually (amazingly) less odious than Boris, Gove, Farage, IDS and Galloway (what a dream team of total cunts that is).

[dave]

Yeah other than Boris' two set-in-stone principles of A look after number one, and B fuck the poor they deserve it (i.e. classic Tory) I don't think he actually has any ideology and couldn't give a toss either way on the European issue. He's just jockeying for career position as future party leader if his old Bullingdon chum Cameroid loses (see point A above).

[tomtom]

One of my colleagues gave a 'pint of science' talk on flooding last night in a local boozer...

His first question from the audience was whether we should stay in the EU. Face. Palm.

[a dense loner]

I know, why would we possibly want to stay in?

[Oldmanmatt]

I know, why would we possibly want to stay in?

I'm surprised they want us.


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[SA Chris]

If they don't want us then I'm definitely voting to stay in.

[lagerstarfish]

One of my colleagues gave a 'pint of science' talk on flooding last night in a local boozer...

His first question from the audience was whether we should stay in the EU. Face. Palm.

depends on whether you want to drown in a flood of low cost, quality French wine

[tomtom]

If they don't want us then I'm definitely voting to stay in.

Thats the spirit!

[Oldmanmatt]

One of my colleagues gave a 'pint of science' talk on flooding last night in a local boozer...

His first question from the audience was whether we should stay in the EU. Face. Palm.

depends on whether you want to drown in a flood of low cost, quality French wine

Where do I sign?


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[erm]

Concerning national banks, I don't know about other countries but in Italy its independence was technically unilateral... The bank's governor sent a letter to the ministry of economy saying "we're independent, starting from today!" (in more technical terms) and that was it. No parliament discussion. Truly democratic...

I fully admit to being unfamiliar with the process by which various central banks have become independent rate setters. Although the argument for it has always been pretty straightforward: politicians made changes to rates just before elections in order to make winning easier, and naturally caused "issues" in the economy as a byproduct. The reduction in this sort of volatility is broadly considered a good thing, on both the left and the right.

I think that is the big fallacy of the leftist internationalist ideal: proletarian unity is not an easy thing to achieve and demolishing national borders makes it harder, instead of easier!

Why do we want proletarian unity? I find the idea of the proletariat rather distasteful in general, it is another dividing line that people draw. If we are talking about tax and so forth I would not complain about different "classes", but rather take issue with the fact that some people (read: the very wealthy) avoid paying the contribution to society which is commensurate with the contribution that society makes to them (good roads, health work force, functioning property rights, etc). While this, in essence, may sound rather market driven as an argument, I find it very persuasive.

single political subject

I'm sorry, but again, why would we want this?

I would like your comment on what happened in France in 2005. Euro treaty "a" is rejected in a referendum, and a few months later treaty "a.1", a slightly modified version, gets approved - this time with no referendum, how weird...

Referendums are a bad idea, we as an electorate are not well enough informed to make good decisions. This is not a product of a lack of information or general lack of intellect, but rather time. After all it is not our job to be informed on all of these issues, yes as responsible citizens we should take an interest but to be informed at the level to make such huge decisions - no. It is the job of our politicians to be well enough informed to make these sorts of decisions (whether are or not is another matter).

The product of this is that the outcomes of any given referendum is very uncertain and the populace can make deeply contradictory decisions. California, being the nirvana of direct democracy, is a mess. Voters have pushed legislation which make tax increases near impossible while simultaneously forcing spending increases (along with all the idiotic penal legislation).

For me, the value that is placed on the public opinion at any given moment is not very useful, and this is what a referendum is based on. Equally we as an electorate are far to disengaged and we are lead by individuals of little moral character because we choose to make so. It is this failing that we must tackle, not through a lurch toward direct democracy but through whole societies taking responsibility for themselves and engaging in the political process ,from start to finish, much much more actively.

[Duma]

Excellent post

[tomtom]

If you believe UK immigration to be a problem (I don't - I think its an asset) then the only way to really bring the numbers down is to either enter a recession or leave the EU - that would give us the powers to stop immigration entirely. If you feel strongly enough about this then there is no alternative than leave.

However, if we were to desire a trade deal with the EU (would seem to be top priority if we were to brexit) then given all other european nations with a deal with the EU also have to accept EU freedom of movement things (e.g. Norway, Swiss) immigration would effectively be back to how it was pre brexit. We can't have our cake and eat it unfortunately....

This whole Brexit mess stems from:

1. Cameron and the Tories foolishly giving a target of reducing immigration to sub 100k - how foolish that was then - and largely done to appease the Tory right/Little Britain folk?
2. Because of mostly the above, this foolish promise to have a referendum to keep his own position intact and keep the Tories together for the general election.

Sorry to get political, but its roots are purely political... IMHO etc...

[monkoffunk]

They absolutely are. Cameron gave a very disingenuous speech that was jeered in the commons (although what isn't these days?) when he claimed he cared passionately about Britain staying in the EU and that this wasn't about his personal ambition, because he isn't planning on a third term. Maybe not, but he used it to keep support when he wanted a second term. If he cares that much he should never have promised a referendum. Such a appalling  waste of time and money.

[rich d]

This whole Brexit mess stems from:

1. Cameron and the Tories foolishly giving a target of reducing immigration to sub 100k - how foolish that was then - and largely done to appease the Tory right/Little Britain folk?

I agree Tom Tom, wasn't it also because Nigel Farage's plastic BMP was on the rise and the conservatives were worried about losing votes to them.

[csl]

Referendums are a bad idea, we as an electorate are not well enough informed to make good decisions. This is not a product of a lack of information or general lack of intellect, but rather time. After all it is not our job to be informed on all of these issues, yes as responsible citizens we should take an interest but to be informed at the level to make such huge decisions - no. It is the job of our politicians to be well enough informed to make these sorts of decisions (whether are or not is another matter).

This is exactly what has me very worried about the results of this referendum. Anyone who watched the BBC EU debate should be able to see, the British public (me included) don't know enough about this. Someone voting leave "because immigrants are getting bumped up the list in front of my mum for a council house" and another who said "to me the EU and Europe are interchangeable" show the levels of misunderstanding. The 'facts' being bandied around by both sides of the debate don't help, but ultimately like you've said, it shouldn't be left to a misinformed public to decide this!

[tomtom]

Part of the problem is that no body, group or organisation is seen as being independent enough to deliver 'Facts'.

Personally, I'd say the Bank of England, IMF, WTO etc.. are probably such placed, but the Brexiteers put them in the remain camp...

Or, look at how the Brexit campaign use the 'fact' that the EU costs £350m a week - which is what we may pay (in fact its actually less), but does not include what we get back...

So sadly there are no facts - just opinions.

[Oldmanmatt]

I haven't seen a single argument from ProBrexit acquaintances, that isn't thinly veiled racism.
 I don't mean the Leave campaign proper, I mean the few individuals I know who are ProBrexit and bother expressing their opinion to me directly or on Farcebuck.

I'm not convinced that I've heard any "official" arguments for leaving, that stack up to much more than that though...


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