[Stu Littlefair]

Manchesters financial position is currently quite healthy. It seems likely to me that this decision is based on models of future income. Those are basically educated guesses but will be heavily affected by post brexit assumptions, as are similar models at our uni.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[andy popp]

I can only speak to the business school side of the equation (MBS was the first business school in the UK and certainly has an MBA). The whole sector has a) been in a prolonged boom, which has probably reached bubble like proportions, and b) become extremely reliant on foreign students, especially from particular regions of the world (e.g. China). UK business schools are basically one huge export industry. But there are real question marks for the future. Like I said, it resembles a bubble (and if they generate a lot of revenue then they are also costly, students expect swanky facilities and faculty are better paid, often much better paid), given the reliance on foreign students changes to visa regulations hit business schools particularly hard, as does a general change in perceptions about how welcoming the whole country is. And viable alternatives are emerging, not least in China itself. Many potential students must be starting to ask themselves if its worth coming to the UK. Retrenchment is probably inevitable.

[petejh]

I'll just leave this here.

https://www.onlineprivacyfoundation.org/opf-research/psychological-biases/psychology-and-the-eu-referendum-update/

Interesting study Sean. Hehe you probably weren't expecting someone to have a graph of their big 5 traits but... because it's something that interests me I've been taking part in a study that tracks personality traits over time. So I can compare myself to that study and see that I don't fit their results.

Participants expressing an intent to vote to leave the EU reported significantly higher levels of authoritarianism and conscientiousness, and lower levels of openness and neuroticism than voters expressing an intent to vote to remain.

My results don't tally for Openness (I'm extremely high across time - higher than average for 'remainers'); or Conscientiousness (I'm lower than the study suggests for 'leavers') 
I did however have lower Neuroticism as per the study.
My personality traits graphed from between Nov 2015 - May 2017




Regards the reasoning result in that study, I took an IQ test in 2015 and scored 126 (+/- 8 iirc). Not sure whether that tallies with their results..

I'm happy to be the 'leave' outlier though. Interesting stuff anyways, thanks for sharing.

[tomtom]

Manchesters financial position is currently quite healthy. It seems likely to me that this decision is based on models of future income. Those are basically educated guesses but will be heavily affected by post brexit assumptions, as are similar models at our uni.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Its all on turnover... Our institute has been through 2 or 3 rounds of 'voluntary' leaving... despite there being a fuckton of £££ in the bank..... but we've been operating at a loss.


In the article they said Mancs has billions in the bank, but were only just in surplus last year and much healthier than this...

[Oldmanmatt]

Torquay/Torbay is heavily reliant on language schools and foreign students (possibly partly why it voted so heavily for Brexit, the students are not liked). We cater to them (the schools) providing PE sessions and extra-curricula clubs etc. The biggest campus here being the EF International School (11-18 year olds). They took a hefty downturn in their Sept intake in 2016, many students opting for the US instead, at the last minute. The staff there are hopeful that will change with the Trump effect and perhaps there will be some recovery in 2017. It depends on where they feel the least welcome I suppose. Anyway, there was a marked change in the student ethnicity spread. The school usually ran at ~ 45% European and Scandinavian students, that has shifted significantly and it's now over 60% Chinese, which has caused huge staffing issues.
My personal assumption is that most of Europe and Scandinavia just up and decided UK English and Culture was no longer as desirable. If they opted to study in English, then the US was a more important place to do so. I know that is how I would feel if I had been a parent choosing an international school for my kids.

[Will Hunt]

https://twitter.com/thesundaysport/status/822911786341044224

[Offwidth]

Well, Manchester are normally pretty quick to trim things back if an area isn't recruiting/bringing in £££

But, the main areas hit are Medicine, Business and the Arts.

Medical research is heavily funded by EU/joint EU funding (IIRC its one of the research areas most likely to be hit hardest). Business may well see a drop off in EU students - not sure if they have an MBA (bet they do) and this is an area that in the past has been hit by changes in visa issues and external perception. Arts subjects... well many are in decline for student numbers, so I doubt this has much to do with EU stuff...

I suspect a good chunk are being made with Brexit considerations in mind - but also a good chunk are ones that would be made anyway. From management perspective it makes it easier to swing past staff/unions (not that they do anything in HE anyway..) than 'regular' cuts...

The whole sector is  facing pressures in overseas recruitment right now. 1/3 of our HE staff are in that category and the mad insistance of RoboMay to make such a fuss about ALL immigartion (they presumably want to focus on high value immigrants) and including students in their immigration numbers, was bound to have consequencies. That's a pre-brexit decision though and very much that of our PM.

Yes Manchester have always been keen to cut and run and many good people left as a result of this... when Universities remember they are more a collection of academic expertise in an international market than a corperate focussed business, trying to outdo local competition by building centralised highly disciplined admin armies, they will become more successful. How many of Manchester's problems are because they fail to supoort the 'coal face' or made bad business decisions (against academic staff advice);  for instance, as a self described world leader in MBA delivery, why risk their international reputation by trumpetting cuts? My spies also tell me Manchester have real issues with TEF coming, in some sub areas, as their actual student support  (as percieved by their students in NSS etc) doesn't always match their mission and their advertising.

We simply can't predict things like Medical research spend post brexit  (much of which is charity based already) and all the parties have said they won't cut this anyhow. From my post '92 institution perspective we worry research money will consolidate more in institutions like Manchester (we have a big biomed research centre with many millions of charity funding on top of government funding,  and top rated research outputs, so have lots to worry about if that happens). Almost all UK institutions are thoroughly dishonest with the way they treat research post docs as casualised staff, so can cut costs quickly by not renewing contracts.

[seankenny]

Interesting study Sean. Hehe you probably weren't expecting someone to have a graph of their big 5 traits but... because it's something that interests me I've been taking part in a study that tracks personality traits over time. So I can compare myself to that study and see that I don't fit their results.


My results don't tally for Openness (I'm extremely high across time - higher than average for 'remainers'); or Conscientiousness (I'm lower than the study suggests for 'leavers') 
I did however have lower Neuroticism as per the study.
My personality traits graphed from between Nov 2015 - May 2017

Thanks Pete, that's really cool (tho the graphs do seem to have disappeared). Fwiw I imagine someone like Johnson or Hannan would score high on the "openness" scale too.

How long will you be involved in the study?

[Offwidth]

More on Manchester Uni restructure:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/may/13/manchester-university-accused-of-planning-clearout-of-senior-staff

https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/manchester-blames-brexit-enormous-job-cuts

[nai]

https://nyti.ms/2qttTv7

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

[Oldmanmatt]

Ummmm...

I was told this wouldn't happen, that it was all falling apart and depended entirely on our contributions and would sink instantly as soon as we decided to leave?
Did I miss-hear? I think I've still got the leaflet that that twat in the purple suit pushed though my letterbox.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eurozone-at-six-year-high-as-economy-turns-corner-sh5cqv93j


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[petejh]

The double standards of seeing you flag up this story is too funny. You could quote your post verbatim but applied to the supposed disaster for the UK economy post-brexit referendum. 

Good of course that everyone's doing ok.

[andy popp]

The reality is that both sides made a number of more or less plausible - and often exaggerated - projections. But it is also the case that we are still in no position to begin to measure the full consequences of Brexit (assuming it happens) and probably won't be for a very long time. To argue otherwise is a nonsense.

[petejh]

Quite agree  - if only you had been the communications manager for the remain campaign Andy then perhaps we wouldn't have suffered project fear from that campaign. The brexit campaign was similarly a load of cock and bull. At its worst it was two sides flinging the information equivalent of feces at each other.

[Oldmanmatt]

The double standards of seeing you flag up this story is too funny. You could quote your post verbatim but applied to the supposed disaster for the UK economy post-brexit referendum. 

Good of course that everyone's doing ok.

[emoji12]

Good?

Heaven forfend! Let the world burn!

(All prognostications completely accurate and true, for a given value of true and an error value of accuracy of +/- 100%. The management accepts no responsibility for external factors affecting said prognostications (such as things not going the way we predicted)).
Have a nice day!

[Oldmanmatt]

Up, down, left, right, in and out and turn about...

http://trib.al/hS4dFM6


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Oldmanmatt]

So, the Swiss newspapers are being quite charitable to British sensibilities...
(Not my introduction, words of the translator).

"This article in a Swiss newspaper today is so ruthlessly clear-sighted in its assessment of just how screwed we are that I just had to translate it for the non-German speakers. Hold on to your hats:

THE LAUGHING STOCK OF EUROPE
[Translation by Paula Kirby]
If it weren't so serious, the situation in Great Britain would almost be comical. The country is being governed by a talking robot, nicknamed the Maybot, that somehow managed to visit the burned-out tower block in the west of London without speaking to a single survivor or voluntary helper. Negotiations for the country’s exit from the EU are due to begin on Monday, but no one has even a hint of a plan. The government is dependent on a small party that provides a cozy home for climate change deniers and creationists. Boris Johnson is Foreign Secretary. What in the world has happened to this country?

Two years ago David Cameron emerged from the parliamentary election as the shining victor. He had secured an absolute majority, and as a result it looked as if the career of this cheerful lightweight was headed for surprisingly dizzy heights. The economy was growing faster than in any other industrialised country in the world. Scottish independence and, with it, the break-up of the United Kingdom had been averted. For the first time since 1992, there was a Conservative majority in the House of Commons. Great Britain saw itself as a universally respected actor on the international stage. This was the starting point.

In order to get from this comfortable position to the chaos of the present in the shortest possible time, two things were necessary: first, the Conservative right wingers’ obsessive hatred of the EU, and second, Cameron’s irresponsibility in putting the whole future of the country on the line with his referendum, just to satisfy a few fanatics in his party. It is becoming ever clearer just how extraordinarily bad a decision that was. The fact that Great Britain has become the laughing stock of Europe is directly linked to its vote for Brexit.

The ones who will suffer most will be the British people, who were lied to by the Brexit campaign during the referendum and betrayed and treated like idiots by elements of their press. The shamelessness still knows no bounds: the Daily Express has asked in all seriousness whether the inferno in the tower block was due to the cladding having been designed to meet EU standards. It is a simple matter to discover that the answer to this question is No, but by failing to check it, the newspaper has planted the suspicion that the EU might be to blame for this too. As an aside: a country in which parts of the press are so demonstrably uninterested in truth and exploit a disaster like the fire in Grenfell Tower for their own tasteless ends has a very serious problem.

Already prices are rising in the shops, already inflation is on the up. Investors are holding back. Economic growth has slowed. And that’s before the Brexit negotiations have even begun. With her unnecessary general election, Prime Minister Theresa May has already squandered an eighth of the time available for them. How on earth an undertaking as complex as Brexit is supposed to be agreed in the time remaining is a mystery.

Great Britain will end up leaving its most important trading partner and will be left weaker in every respect. It would make economic sense to stay in the single market and the customs union, but that would mean being subject to regulations over which Britain no longer had any say. It would be better to have stayed in the EU in the first place. So the government now needs to develop a plan that is both politically acceptable and brings the fewest possible economic disadvantages. It’s a question of damage limitation, nothing more; yet even now there are still politicians strutting around Westminster smugly trumpeting that it will be the EU that comes off worst if it doesn’t toe the line.

The EU is going to be dealing with a government that has no idea what kind of Brexit it wants, led by an unrealistic politician whose days are numbered; and a party in which old trenches are being opened up again: moderate Tories are currently hoping to be able to bring about a softer exit after all, but the hardliners in the party – among them more than a few pigheadedly obstinate ideologues – are already threatening rebellion. An epic battle lies ahead, and it will paralyse the government.

EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier has said that he now expects the Brits to finally set out their position clearly, since he cannot negotiate with himself. The irony of this statement is that it would actually be in Britain’s best interests if he did just that. At least that way they’d have one representative on their side who grasps the scale of the task and is actually capable of securing a deal that will be fair to both sides. The Brits do not have a single negotiator of this stature in their ranks. And quite apart from the Brexit terms, both the debate and the referendum have proven to be toxic in ways that are now making themselves felt.

British society is now more divided than at any time since the English civil war in the 17th century, a fact that was demonstrated anew in the general election, in which a good 80% of the votes were cast for the two largest parties. Neither of these parties was offering a centrist programme: the election was a choice between the hard right and the hard left. The political centre has been abandoned, and that is never a good sign. In a country like Great Britain, that for so long had a reputation for pragmatism and rationality, it is grounds for real concern. The situation is getting decidedly out of hand. 

After the loss of its empire, the United Kingdom sought a new place in the world. It finally found it, as a strong, awkward and influential part of a larger union: the EU. Now it has given up this place quite needlessly. The consequence, as is now becoming clear, is a veritable identity crisis from which it will take the country a very long time to recover."

[Obi-Wan is lost...]

Possibly a long shot but being put forward by someone who sounds like they know what they are talking about...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-article-50-illusion-never-triggered-eu-counsel-magazine-barrister-david-wolchover-theresa-may-a7803596.html

[Oldmanmatt]

Ummmm....?

Ok.

[emoji15]

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-dominic-cummings-vote-leave_uk_595b62bbe4b02734df33fbc0?td

[jfdm]

Been a lot discussion at work the last few days about pay and conditions.
Over the last 8 years have had pay rises about 1% per year.
So not bad, but was told that low rises to do with austerity/banking crash.
Talk in papers etc about possibly increases in the pipeline.
But was told yesterday, that Brexshit will mean continued pegging back of raises.
So will 8 years of austerity be followed by 8 year Brexshit recession.

[mrjonathanr]

1% isn't bad if you don't mind an annual pay cut, just as CPI is a good measure if you don't have to pay for a home...

[Oldmanmatt]

Wasn't the Torygraph rabidly pro-Brexit? Wasn't May their pin-up girl? Did we slip into an alternate universe over the Weekend?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/05/mays-absurd-brexit-plan-sacrifices-economy-stop-eu-migrants/?WT.mc_id=tmgoff_fb_tmg

[Oldmanmatt]

Worth 5 minutes and mildly amusing...

https://www.indy100.com/article/brexit-twitter-thread-political-analyst-european-union-united-kingdom-united-states-america-7834846


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Offwidth]

Cheers, I'd missed that and wasn't aware of quite a few items on his list.

[Oldmanmatt]

Bloody experts (obviously a bit posh too, if he eats chocolate oranges):

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/13/brexit-plans-fall-apart-chocolate-orange-auditor-general