[moose]

Can't comment, too busy stocking up on tinned food and trying to youtube "when the wind blows"....

[Oldmanmatt]

Well at the risk of assassination...

Or a law suit.

Allegedly, I have been told, and I could neither confirm, deny or attest to it's veracity.


And speaking hypothetically...


The riot police who were acting as snipers and firing on crowds last week, and were reportedly Russian speaking, and reportedly spent a strangely large amount of time removing Ukrainian flags from Kiev and possibly, may have been a complete Russian set up... Not that I'd have heard any concrete rumours from former Military associates  and even if they knew anything or had been placed on high alert ten days ago, they would not have told me... So I'm just speculating, you understand, just fantasy really.

I mean, no country would contemplate an invasion of a neighbouring democracy in a modern Europe, would they? There couldn't be a visible Naval blockade in place or 8 Hind D gunships on the Tarmac of Sevastopol airport, could there?

No one could be that stupid, could they?

Given where this could go?


I, personally, have no concerns at all.



None.

[petejh]

It's Ukraine... faced with WW3 or allowing Russia to occupy - it's Ukraine, they can have it. And rename it Putinistan for all I care. Which is exactly what Russia will be thinking ('cept the Putinistan bit, probably)..

[Oldmanmatt]

True.

But then, it was only Austria (and they were basically German anyway, right?)


And then it was only Poland...


This time around, the new Maniac has already seized large chunks of two other countries. He's making noises in the East over disputed territories with both Japan and China.

What's his long term goal?

How far might he push?

The West has been cutting back it's military for decades; he hasn't...


It's not exactly the first time this has happened (why are they always short?), and on the previous occasions the pattern was remarkably similar.

Grab a bit. See what happens. Grab a bit more...

[petejh]

'Pastor Niemeyer' - GraemeA. What total fucking claptrap. Idiot.

[Oldmanmatt]

http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Ukraine._Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances

Para 4 is of some concern...

[Falling Down]

Pretty worrying turn of events today... Quite worried sat here.

[Oldmanmatt]

It is worrying. I hope I'm wrong, but I suspect those who think it will have no effect on them here in the UK; might be deluding themselves.

Not that it matters. There seems to be little that could be done politically. It seems Putin is bent on domination and Empire building.

The fallout, globally will be devastating.

And why are the people of one country worth less than another?

I suppose, of course, it would be different if it was Scotland (where the Russian Navy has been deployed recently).
If there is a no vote in the referendum, will Putin invade to secure the safety of "True Scots"?
Or the interests of hundreds of Russians who own vast areas of land in Scotland?

Pastor Niemoller was right, at the time and bitterly regretted that he could not do more.

Speaking out early, May, help to prevent a more serious conflict later.

[tomtom]

Very concerning
Whilst I don't think the west will get militarily involved - I think Russia has a massive amount to lose economically if it's assets are frozen etc..

[mrjonathanr]

Some perspective from the Carnegie Institute

[Oldmanmatt]

Some perspective from the Carnegie Institute

I'm not sure who started it, or if that matters.

Political shenanigans do not justify armed invasion.

Furthermore, I find it hard to see the EU as some sort of colonial power, building an Empire.
Whereas Putin does seem to be fulfilling the requirements of Fascist Dictator.

I have not had a great deal of respect for the Carnegie Endowment since discovering the following...

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugenics_in_the_United_States

in a Political Science lecture, many moons ago.


I don't want anyone to think that I am advocating Military action. I am not.

We are the best equipped, that any population in history has ever been, to oppose and influence events. It is possible for the humblest to be heard, should they wish.

Should this spiral out of control, it will be the Apathy of the West which allows it.

Even quiet murmurs, in concert, become mighty roars.

[Falling Down]

Apathy, confusion and naïveté combined...

[Oldmanmatt]

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I have little to no respect for religion in general and for the various Eastern Orthodox Churches; even contempt.
However Archbishop Klemente is a man worthy of respect. He has placed himself between the Ukrainian troops locked inside their base and the surrounding Russian forces and vows to stop the first bullet with his own body.

[tomtom]

Some perspective from the Carnegie Institute

A slightly odd perspective I thought...
The world is very different post cold war - Russia (and China) are dependent upon the EU and US for trade... its not the closed eastern bloc shop it was before which (to my reading) made many of their arguments rather odd (or even irrelevant).

Still its a different viewpoint

[petejh]

I reacted strongly above because I was puntered and a comment made of 'Pastor Niemöller' - which implies Ukraine is a holocaust in the making and that I'm denying it. Way off the mark on both counts.
Firstly Russia's actions have as many similarities to Thatcher's Britain and the Falklands as they do to Hitler's quest for the domination of the whole of Europe. Secondly I'm not denying anything, - I thought that writing 'if it avoids WW3...' made it clear that I just don't think the risks of intervention are anywhere near worth the 'gains' - you have to be really fucking stupid to think it's worth risking mutually assured destruction for the sake of some relatively wish-washy clamoring for more 'democracy' by a half-arsed populace who don't appear to have a clear idea of what they want, other than being being part of the EU. I don't see a whole population trying to rise up against a genocidal maniac and being being crushed and wiped out here. Ukraine could be one of any number of places in world that has a more powerful, bullying, neighbor and a population who are vaguely 'not completely happy with their lot'.

The Crimea region has a large majority of people who see themselves more closely allied to Russia than to Ukraine (and Ukraine itself has a large minority of Russians), it will be interesting to see the outcome of the referendum in May - if we get that far without the balloon going up - and we'll see what the US/UK response is if the call (however forced) from Crimeans is that they want to be part of Russia - or a dependance of - not Ukraine. Perhaps the US could be asked to provide support to help their fight for independence!

Russia is playing a masterful game of brinkmanship and bluff-calling but it can't last. The consequences are likely to be more damaging to Russia in the long-term. One-third of all European gas is currently imported from Russia. This is a clear signal if ever one were needed to accelerate toward the goal of European energy independence.

[Oldmanmatt]

Looks to me like the end-game is Russia seizing Crimea and the rest of Ukraine remaining dysfunctional. US and EU will make some token complaints. We'll be fussing over something else within a year. Not saying that's a morally-correct outcome - though AFAIK the Crimea has always been part of Russia in everything but name - just my forecast.

It seems to have been tossed around between various Empires, it had some Strategic advantage for control of the Black Sea and the rivers which lead inland.

It seems small advantage today.

Perhaps someone should tell him.

It is also shortsighted of Putin IMO. (As regards the Gas) as many of his customers are actively pursuing the Fracking option and the Russian Golden Goose is possibly cooked, long term, and this can only hasten it.

Toby or Systema Ian might have the numbers/knowledge to affirm or contest my assertion?
(No time to Google).

[GraemeA]

which implies Ukraine is a holocaust in the making and that I'm denying it.

Really. Maybe in your mind, not mine.

[Sloper]

It sounds like the arse is falling out of the Rouble, the question is how solid is Putin at home if the economy really tanks (again)?

Putin is now either faced with two almost impossible choices, stand down the forces in Crimea (and lose incalculable 'face' at home) or push on and become a pariah state (with dire economic consequences that may mean that he does not survive at home).

Personally I cannot see him taking the military route, which means things are going to get very messy indeed inside Russia.

[Oldmanmatt]

He has been making conciliatory noises all day and standing down the bulk of his forces is significant. Also note the distancing of the troops already deployed, now referred to as "Ukrainian" troops by Moscow (my arse!).
Whether this allows him to settle for holding on to the Crimea and gracefully cede the rest (the referendum result seems sure, and will be fairly adjudicated by the same "Ukrainian" troops, no doubt) or if this is merely a stall, a pretence at patience; only time will tell.

[Sloper]

Let's hope so, and let's hope once this is resolved people start taking serious steps against the kleptocrats, when the people with money in Russia see Putin as part of the problem then he's toast, and given his regime thus far there's probably no one ready to step into his place.

[Oldmanmatt]

I'd posit that the recent prison releases hint at a loosening of grip...

I can but dream...

[Sloper]

Some reports of a test firing of ICBM in Southern Russia. A last chance to grandstand, or  is Putin really mad?

[Jaspersharpe]

The test firing was planned before all this and the US had been informed.

[Oldmanmatt]

Direct nose thumb to the US there, I think. Kerry in particular.

I heard Putin described by someone (and I forget who, A.N.Pundit probably) as a man who "has heard nothing but YES and flattery for the last decade" and "almost certainly deluded".

Nice to know he has the worlds second biggest Nuclear arsenal. A blatant threat of Armageddon in the face of some fairly puny economic sanctions?

Wow.

No problem there then...

[Sloper]

Well that's something, still curious when it was planned, and why they didn't postpone it.