[Sloper]

It seems the president has fled and in many ways the state has fallen.

What ever the complexities of Ukrainian politics (and I am sure that there are many) it is simply beyond the pale for the state to use weapons as in Ukraine.

Time for the last vestiges of the USSR to be consigned to the dustbin of history? I hope so.

[tomtom]

It seems the president has not fled - but has moved to the more sympathetic (to him) East side of the country.. Though he is a busted flush in terms of being president it would seem.

Its really sad what has happened/is happening there... its a real Russia vs Europe microcosm. Half the country (geographically) being more Russian affiliated (east and crimea) and the rest looking to Europe and EU membership (west).

You don't have to look too far to see Putins influence in the former/present president... Whereas a chunk of the population want integration with Europe..

As you say Sloper - its crazy the state putting out snipers (in fairly open view) to gun down demonstrators..

All very sad. I hope something good can come out of all this..

[dave]

Am I right in thinking the gov have been using snipers against civilian protesters/rioters? If so that's tremendously bad form.

[Lopez]

Am I right in thinking the gov have been using snipers against civilian protesters/rioters 300 spartan soldiers?

(Edit. Video shows embedded, so a warning that some people may find it upsetting as it shows people being shot at)

Apparently

[Oldmanmatt]

Yes, and strangely the "riot police" have been pulling down Ukrainian flags. Something odd happened there, as police from other cities are claiming they were not Ukrainian Police at all. Hard to say though as Russian is widely spoken in the East....

[moose]

A slightly facetious digression, but does anyone else think Vitali Klitschko is aiming to become "The Ultimate Man"? He was already likely the best fighter in the world (good kickboxer, best heavyweight boxer since Lennox Lewis, never been knocked down), spoke four languages fluently, had a PhD, Christ, he even plays chess with his friend Vladimir Kramnik (admittedly loses every time... but God loves a trier).  Now he's actually a legitimate politician, hailed as a hero of what appears to be a successful protest movement.  I suspect even someone as full as himself as Putin might feel a little inadequate meeting a 6'8" bloke called Dr Ironfist (at least until he just turns off the oil supply).

[jwi]

My better half is from Lviv (a city in western Ukraine that pretty much has seceded from Ukraine, their police went to Kiev to support the protester and demonstrated in uniform, no less), and I know someone who work for an international law-firm that represent Klitschko. Still, I have nothing useful to add.  The situation is pretty far from clear.

Kleptocracy works even worse then usual when there's nothing to steal.

[tomtom]

That last sentence is chilling and profound jwi. I hope your better halfs family and friends are all ok.

[dr_botnik]

Was listening to a segment on Radio 4 earlier about this. Apparently, the split between the population between Pro-Russia/Euro is very marginally towards Euro. The protests themselves stemmed from a violent crackdown on a student protest. Much of the continued protests are more against a historically corrupt regime and less a Russia/Euro split as we seem to be portraying. Still good to see a potential resolution, my thoughts have been with the people of Ukraine for the past few weeks.

[Oldmanmatt]

Having spent much of my life a little to the South, I still find it hard to believe the degree of corruption and injustice; the peoples of Eastern Europe shrug off daily. I can only imagine the enormity of the decadence in this instance, that it should arouse such anger in so stoic a populace. I remember my late wife (Romanian) was moved to utter a distinct "pah! Is that all!" at the extent of the expenses scandal...

[Falling Down]

Good thread.  It's really difficult to understand what's happending from a Western perspective.  It's heartening to see oprressive "governments" being dismantled though.

[Jaspersharpe]

Apparently, the split between the population between Pro-Russia/Euro is very marginally towards Euro.

And very specific to regions from the little I've read about it. Need to remember that Ukraine is a huge place.

[Oldmanmatt]

It does seem that there are far fewer Ethnic Russians than it would first seem. Mostly transplanted during early Soviet years to water-down nationalism and then mostly  located in the more industrial and militarily sensitive East.
I'm now given to understand that many Russian speakers are Ethnically Ukrainian, simply raised in "Russian" regions and may be more inclined to lean West without the powerful regional Governors?

[Sloper]

It does seem that there are far fewer Ethnic Russians than it would first seem. Mostly transplanted during early Soviet years to water-down nationalism and then mostly  located in the more industrial and militarily sensitive East.
I'm now given to understand that many Russian speakers are Ethnically Ukrainian, simply raised in "Russian" regions and may be more inclined to lean West without the powerful regional Governors?

I think that the concept of Russian ethnicity is one to be avoided, certainly Stalin transported huge swathes of people across the Soviet Union to give effect to his nasty delusions, we are probably seeing an after shock from the collapse of the USSR and in part caused by the problems in the Caucuses in that the ideal of self determination is still one that causes real problems in the Kremlin.

It seems that there are now arrest warrants / indictments out in respect of the mass killings; how the current State responds will be a litmus test, if they go for the Caucescu (sp?) response then I'd be worried, but if they go for a proper triall with the rule of law in spirit and practice then there's a good degree of hope for a peaceful and stable transition.

Otherwise god help us.

[tomtom]

There are few similarities with Caecescau IMHO...

He ruled Romania for many many years (not just a few) and the state of his pillaging was equivalent to 1/4 of GNP over 10-15 years... If you ever go to Bucharest go to his Palace.. it is gobsmacking in scale and grandeour... IIRC he was universally hated by everyone - not just by a (sizable) percentage as is the case in the Ukraine.
 

[Sloper]

I'm not suggesting there are similarities with Caecescau, rather I can see there being a risk of him being tried by a People's committee and then 30 minutes later being taken out the back and shot / hanged.

As to the level of corruption in Ukraine, apparently Yanukovic's (sp, can't be arsed to google) spent $2million on a sauna complex at his out of town residence plus millions on other shite, so although he failed to compete with Caesscau it might only be the lack of time that stopped him reaching such epic levels of corruption and waste.

The (I can't beleive it's not socialism) socialist leaders do like a few billions of corruption and feather nesting don't they, it really rather puts duck houses and moat cleaning into context . . .

[tomtom]

Recent troubles in Sarajevo (protests/marches/strikes) are against the rampant corruption that has developed with the high levels of neo-liberalisation (by that I mean the privatisation of everything - in case I'm using the word wrong).

Is this some over-compensation for years of being ruled by strict communism? Or the surfacing of the old communist 'ruling classes' in a capitalist setting? Or a combination of both! 

[Sloper]

Recent troubles in Sarajevo (protests/marches/strikes) are against the rampant corruption that has developed with the high levels of neo-liberalisation (by that I mean the privatisation of everything - in case I'm using the word wrong).

Is this some over-compensation for years of being ruled by strict communism? Or the surfacing of the old communist 'ruling classes' in a capitalist setting? Or a combination of both!

I think part of the problem with the former soviet sattelites and post colonial states that embreaced various forms of 'socialism' is that while they had the bony part of the aparatus of the satte they had none of the soft tissue that was functioning civil society.  As such when the bony part was removed there was little to support the structures and that gave rise to the opportunity for corruption & etc

that corruption was laregly in exiastence in the pre revolutionary / independence states, but it was much less well publicised and therefore there is the apperance of an enormous increase when in reality the increase is less significant; further the new governments are less willing to put down the protests with the sort of force that the soviets and their allies historically used.

Building a functioning civil state with the sort of institutions we see as necesary and proper is not something that will happen for a while yet; indeed it will probably take several generations.

[Oldmanmatt]

Recent troubles in Sarajevo (protests/marches/strikes) are against the rampant corruption that has developed with the high levels of neo-liberalisation (by that I mean the privatisation of everything - in case I'm using the word wrong).

Is this some over-compensation for years of being ruled by strict communism? Or the surfacing of the old communist 'ruling classes' in a capitalist setting? Or a combination of both!

I think part of the problem with the former soviet sattelites and post colonial states that embreaced various forms of 'socialism' is that while they had the bony part of the aparatus of the satte they had none of the soft tissue that was functioning civil society.  As such when the bony part was removed there was little to support the structures and that gave rise to the opportunity for corruption & etc

that corruption was laregly in exiastence in the pre revolutionary / independence states, but it was much less well publicised and therefore there is the apperance of an enormous increase when in reality the increase is less significant; further the new governments are less willing to put down the protests with the sort of force that the soviets and their allies historically used.

Building a functioning civil state with the sort of institutions we see as necesary and proper is not something that will happen for a while yet; indeed it will probably take several generations.

That is partially correct.

However, the boney part did not crumble or disappear; it merely rebranded itself.

Most of the institutions of state and politicians of the new dawn were the same faces that had stood behind the former "Fathers of their Nations".

The reality of the new freedom for those who were adult at the time was principally bewilderment.

I remember Lili's frustration with her parents (and their generation). She was 13 at the time of the revolution (and it was very similar to the current situation, even the pattern and number of deaths), so essentially grew up in freedom and spent much of her life in the West.
Her parents just never came to terms with the new reality. They could never question authority, be it the state or the church (and there's an evil empire to be reckoned with, The Romanian Orthodox Church of Corruption and Greed (a lesser known denomination)).

I remember well her fathers' shock at his first introduction to Dubai, but even there he felt at home with the Autocratic nature of the place; the absolute authority of a Police state.

His introduction to Britain in the early 00's was quite touching. He just couldn't grasp it.
Despite having a valid Visa (a year or two before joining the EU) he had a $100 bill folded into his and his wife's passport when he got to the immigration desk at Heathrow. The rather large lady behind the desk calm took them out and passed them to him (a couple of rows away Lili and I were wishing the ground would open) and laughed that "she probably could have retired just on this flight alone"...

What is worrying about the current situation is Putin.

Remember Georgia?

Notice his call to defend his fellow Russians?

Did someone say "Anschluss"?

[Sloper]

Indeed, one of the problems with releasing 'lifers' is the degree to which they become institutionalised. 

Anyway now's probably a good time for a (modern) Russian joke.

Two oligarchs are sitting at the bar and Sergie looks over and says 'Vladimir, nice watch how much?' Vladimir replies, $80,000, from Paris!

Are you crazy Vladimir, you could have paid $100,000 for it in Geneva!

[jwi]

That last sentence is chilling and profound jwi. I hope your better halfs family and friends are all ok.

Apart from a grandmother they have all emigrated. None are too eager to be on the wrong side when the curtain falls again.

Just to give an idea about the level of kleptocracy in Ukraine: Ukraine’s GDP actually grew by 3.3% in the last quarter of 2013(!) since Yanukovich cronyism was stifled by the protests

[Falling Down]

Looks like Erdogan has finally fucked it up in Turkey too..

[Oldmanmatt]

Yes, a large proportion of the population are concentrated on the coast and are very Westernised. But travel an hour or two into the Hinterland and it's a very different story. Really quite tribal (sorry if that sounds condescending, it's the way the locals always described it themselves. I always felt it was  çok güzel!).

[petejh]

* specifically, for anyone with a brokerage account that can deal in US stocks, Turkcell (TKC) looks interesting ... a reasonably sensible mobile operator whose US-listed shares have been beaten down by the recent geopolitical fuss.

You long?

[dave]

Hold the fuck on, now we've got a unidentified army unit, with no insignia but blatantly professional well equipped soldiers turning up and occupying an airport in the Crimea? What the fuck is going on, this is mental. Apparently Russia are denying its them, chinny reckon....