Tour de France predictions

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Paul B said:
I've not had a fantastic opinion of Remco since getting into cycling as he's always seemed a bit petulant (and never quite the GC material he's made out to be) but that seems to have changed.
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I was similar to you. I then watched a few of the vids he puts out on his own youtube - think only about 4 or 5 vids so far, and he came across really well and likable. Could be he's matured a bit, could be he just struggles/ed to come across well in interviews after races etc + he must have a huge amount of pressure on his results.

I also think he does look good on a bike.

[nsfw] similar to all above it was a great stage to watch. Obv Jonnas did have a mechanical issue but it didn't overly effect anything (I heard tratnick was riding a shorted stem to normal? specifically for that situation) and if one of the GC had been out of contention from it that would have been disappointing.

I don't think Jonnas looks as good as previous but amazing he is back at close to his best considering. Will he improve (relatively) over the next weeks or drop off more due to lack of base etc?[/nsfw]
 
[nsfw]Ye also really enjoyed yesterdays stage. Watched through the day on ITV and there was so much happening, brilliant. Also kinda like it when the riders all look knackered and as if they have been on a real adventure at the end of the day, which the definitely did! Seems inevitable that Jonas is not 100% or fully confident on his shape but equally he has won his previous tours being more conservative than pog and is there is no way he would have looked at yesterday as a good day to try get time, reckon he will be looking more at the bigger days in the mountains to try and have a go, he seems to be very calm/ tactically minded. [/nsfw]

Ye agree with above on Remco. I think another factor is the hype he received a few years back seemed way more than anyone else that I can remember in cycling and maybe that played into things. Dont even think Pog had as much hype and as mentioned that must bring a load of pressure. Not sure if he may need to move to a different team or for his team to change their approach though if he is to win tdf?
 
[nsfw]
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Jonas' fitness perhaps being a bit less tip top than usual is surprising given his injuries I was more commenting on his bike handling which is maybe as a result of really having to push himself all of the time?

It's a fair point on Remco and his team too; for a good shot at GC you need to be one of the super-powers.
[/nsfw]

Did everyone see this signing by Ineos? The footage is impressive.
https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling/the-18-year-old-dane-who-broke-coll-de-rates-record-signs-with-ineos-grenadiers

I think Jonas also had the KOM when he was younger (Pidcock's involved a motorbike I think)?
 
[nsfw]Always had a soft spot for Paris-Roubaix and the Belgian hard man classics. Anyone remember the movie A Sunday in Hell? Brilliant early attempt to make a full length narrative on cycling.

Gravel and cobbles makes for crazy exciting racing, but it feels like possibly too much jeopardy for the tour. Might have been different fall out if one of the favourites had lost out big time. Love the spectacle and it rewards hard racing, rather than staring at power meters ...but still, but still.

Sunday in Hell Trailer:
https://vimeo.com/222056897

Full movie:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2V3NdYCwMk
[/nsfw]
 
Another mega stage yesterday, won’t say any more than that in case people are still catching up.
 
Before this Tour I saw some people saying it was going to be boring. They were very wrong!

[nsfw]
Roglic :wall:

Impressive stuff by Jonas but I'm wondering how much he burnt with those efforts?
[/nsfw]
 
[nsfw]Jonas normally seems to improve as the Tour goes on so hopefully he will be ok. Also seemed like he had a first dig, and then when he couldn’t get on his wheel, regrouped to recover, and then rode back up at his own pace to catch Pog. If anything I thought that maybe Pog looked a bit fatigued on the last climbs. Next mountain stages should be v interesting!
Not sure what tomorrow will bring, looks like a downhill stage on the profile! [/nsfw]
 
Best first week of a tour for a long long time for me. French winners and a breakaway staying away, Cav with 35 after struggling with heatstroke on the first day, Binnie being the first black african to win a stage and also wearing the green jersey, Remco a serious contendor and winning his first stage with the time trail, a gravel stage that was just crazy racing all day and like a classic inserted into the middle of a grand tour, and all of this without even considering the two main men of Jonas and Pogi who are lining up for an epic final couple of weeks. Don't think the tour could be any better balanced with Pogi being ahead and possibly tiring into the Alps in the third week after riding the Giro and Jonas seemingly riding into form after injury and time off the bike and playing the long term tactical game.

The only slight disappiontment is that on the sprint days there has been no breakaway formation and the peleton seems to just roll through until the last 20km, possibly just modern racing though as the riders know that holding off the peleton is futile on the flat in a race like this with so many teams with decent sprinters who will want it to come back together. Possibly need to mandate on designated flat stages that no radios are used? Would make it more difficult for teams to organise a chase of a breakaway and would put more oneous on the road captains in the teams to watch the timing boards. Would also be intresting to hear the shouting in the peleton coming into the finish if it does end up as a sprint similar to in world champs. Finally the protection of GC riders would have to be done by the riders on the road, domestiques would need to ride with or near the leader in case of mechanical or puncture as they wouldn't just be able to rely on a radio call to just drop back and pace a rider back into the peleton.
 
[nsfw]ye agree has been brilliant first week and yesterday was really interesting thinking ahead to the 2 massive weekend stages - jonas must fancy his chances of more stages and getting some time back on pog. also funny to see ineos still so out of the gc, wonder if they will be eyeing trying to sign someone like remco or whether they are content trying to podium/ top 5 and looking for odd stage win.[/nsfw]
 
[nsfw]
Did you see the above post on the recent signing by Ineos? My thoughts are with Rodriguez etc. they're positioning for the future.
[/nsfw]
 
[nsfw]ah ye sorry missed that, think you are right, try get the next pog. think they also have a young american who is expected to progress well. seems like will be a struggle for bernal to get back to where he was. [/nsfw]
 
After today's stage, you wonder will anything change on the podium or any of the jerseys by the end of the race? Still plenty of hard stages to come, but...
 
Ye he does look ominously good! interested to see how today goes, might suit jonas more? Think there are a couple more big mountain days end of next week.
Seems like polka dot jersey is a bit pointless currently - Ciccone was exception last year but otherwise seems to usually end up with yellow jersey.
 
I think we can say the yellow jersey has now proved that he is the strongest in this tour. Another dominant display in great style once again yesterday.

Also loved the breakaway win this week, amazing interview afterwards. Truly deserved after what sounds like a 9 week altitude camp. Tears from both the winner and the second place finisher on the day. The preparations for the tour even from those who aren't going for the overall and only expect a single stage win are bonkers, so much effort for something that probably won't happen.
 
Sadly I don't share your enthusiasm, great for the stage winners but the yellow jersey was decided a while ago.
I love the tdf, but I think we've moved backwards....pogacar dominance in the giro was inhuman, and he's carried it into the tour
Maybe him and vin are the best athletes we've seen yet.....but something is off
 
It's been pretty dull. Pogacar having to attack out of sheer ennui and cruising past everybody to the finish: impressive but boring.
 
Pogi is so dominant I agree, he does it with such good style though I just can't be mad with him. Hopefully Jonas will have better preparation next year without a massive crash early season. Also Remco has had a great Tour for his age and he could keep developing to become a formidable challenger to Pogi in the future...
 

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