Tour de France predictions

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Psyched! Can't see Pog not rinsing it based on his Giro - be ace to see Cav get the record but not sure it's gonna happen :'(

Unchained was mint again!
Paul B said:
[nsfw]
Does anyone else now like Alpecin/Jasper a little less?
[/nsfw]
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:agree:
 
Really excited for the Tour, several really strong teams (UAE - Tadej, Visma - Jonas, Bora - Roglic, Quickstep - Remco, Ineos with loads of good riders but maybe not a standout leader).

All i really want to see though is Tadej to do Tadej things riding off feel, no computer, go totally nuts with that hair tufting out his helmet.

Also would love Cav to get the stage win and go out on a high, he isn't the fastest now and the Tour is the piniccale so it maybe tricky for him to get the win however he has such a strong leadout with Morkov, Boll, Ballerini that have so much experience he maybe able to out think the young guns. Also intresting that he did the Tour of Suisse to build climbing form, maybe hoping to have good legs late in the race when some of the young guns have faded or dropped out...
 
Strap in, it's time again!

Only just cottoned on to Season 1 of Unchained and feel like I've missed reading the set text. The Cav documentary is well worth a look too - https://www.netflix.com/title/81568626
 
steveri said:
Strap in, it's time again!

Only just cottoned on to Season 1 of Unchained and feel like I've missed reading the set text. The Cav documentary is well worth a look too - https://www.netflix.com/title/81568626
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I wasn't aware of it before either. What an absolute gem it is.

Just got to the part where Tom Pidcock reveals that his legendary descent of the Galibier was an onsight. F*ck me.
 
Also really looking forward to the tour this year!
Usually really enjoy Giro but struggled to get into it this year I think in part because pog was so dominant, did still enjoy seeing geraint going well.
As sxrxg says the tour looks like it should be much more competitive with uncertainty there, will pog be tired from giro? is vingegaard properly recovered? etc as well as seeing how cavandish gets on - also agree will be cool to see whether his guile and experience can get him a stage and hadnt realised he had been working on his climbing fitness!
 
Muenchener said:
I wasn't aware of it before either. What an absolute gem it is.

Just got to the part where Tom Pidcock reveals that his legendary descent of the Galibier was an onsight. F*ck me.
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They rode up it the previous day so hardly onsight and more like climbed after abseil inspection.
 
Enjoying season 2 so far, wish I'd picked up on it a bit sooner as I'm not going to get through it before this year's race starts. Good that it has Pog in it, that felt like quite a big omission in the first one.

It's a good show for conveying the atmosphere and drama of the race, though some of the commentary is hilariously basic. Not that I'm a big cycling geek, but I guess it's aimed at a broad audience who need to be made to grasp that winning is very important.
 
I enjoyed Unchained though the dubbing is pretty awful. The voices make the Directeur Sportifs seem like much bigger arseholes than they probably are. Also there's zero discussion of any tactics which is presumably because the teams consider it too sensitive, but it makes it all a bit light on content.
 
Deffo prefer watching it with the subs, but even then the Jumbo, Quickstep, Alpecin DS’s and of course Sir Dave all still come across as arseholes!
 
Nails said:
I enjoyed Unchained though the dubbing is pretty awful. The voices make the Directeur Sportifs seem like much bigger arseholes than they probably are. Also there's zero discussion of any tactics which is presumably because the teams consider it too sensitive, but it makes it all a bit light on content.
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If you select French [Original] as the language no one is dubbed and then you can select English for subtitles.
 
Looking forward to this tour, but it is a real shame about the status of the contenders. Pog is clearly on the best form of his life (so far...) and in my opinion could beat anyone riding like he is now, but he isn't facing Ving, Rog, Remco at their peak form because of the crash in the Basque country. I imagine he will win by a decent margin, but he wont get the opportunity to take down the other 3 of the big 4 in prime condition, which I imagine he would this year.

Predictions (some more sensible than others):
- Pog to win by over 2 minutes.
- Carlos, Primoz, Ving battle for podium, with Ving taking second and Rog third.
- Carlos looks great at the moment, but average TT will probably let him down, especially since there is a decent amount of it this year. Hopefully top 5 but probably top 10. 6th?
- Remco will look great initially and takes the first ITT but then cracks on the tourmalet on stage 14, as usual, and ends up top 10, but not top 5.
- Cav to take a stage, but I haven't decided which yet. Possibly stage 3? Lots of road weirdness in the last kms, a couple of sharp corners in the final km where position will be crucial, and road narrows round the last corner. Looks like it could be tense, so experience will pay. 16 looks like a contender too, if he can stay on his bike until then.
- Pidcock goes for stage 4 win because everyone expects his descent off the Galibier to be lunacy again. GC hopefuls don't care because it's Pidcock and they are still all trying to work out how everyone feels.
- Everyone gets sick of jasper and at some point he gets relegated out of a stage win for being a chode (as he should have been last year).
- Derek Gee emerges a fan favourite and everyone wants him to podium, but comes 8th.
- Egan looks good but not amazing, and everyone is happy to see him up there, comes top 15.
- G just generally enjoys himself, and rides well for Carlos. Top 10 but not really putting in digs. Announces he will do the Vuelta afterwards.

At least 1 of these will come true.
 
AMorris said:
Looking forward to this tour, but it is a real shame about the status of the contenders. Pog is clearly on the best form of his life (so far...) and in my opinion could beat anyone riding like he is now, but he isn't facing Ving, Rog, Remco at their peak form because of the crash in the Basque country. I imagine he will win by a decent margin, but he wont get the opportunity to take down the other 3 of the big 4 in prime condition, which I imagine he would this year.

Predictions (some more sensible than others):
- Pog to win by over 2 minutes.
- Carlos, Primoz, Ving battle for podium, with Ving taking second and Rog third.
- Carlos looks great at the moment, but average TT will probably let him down, especially since there is a decent amount of it this year. Hopefully top 5 but probably top 10. 6th?
- Remco will look great initially and takes the first ITT but then cracks on the tourmalet on stage 14, as usual, and ends up top 10, but not top 5.
- Cav to take a stage, but I haven't decided which yet. Possibly stage 3? Lots of road weirdness in the last kms, a couple of sharp corners in the final km where position will be crucial, and road narrows round the last corner. Looks like it could be tense, so experience will pay. 16 looks like a contender too, if he can stay on his bike until then.
- Pidcock goes for stage 4 win because everyone expects his descent off the Galibier to be lunacy again. GC hopefuls don't care because it's Pidcock and they are still all trying to work out how everyone feels.
- Everyone gets sick of jasper and at some point he gets relegated out of a stage win for being a chode (as he should have been last year).
- Derek Gee emerges a fan favourite and everyone wants him to podium, but comes 8th.
- Egan looks good but not amazing, and everyone is happy to see him up there, comes top 15.
- G just generally enjoys himself, and rides well for Carlos. Top 10 but not really putting in digs. Announces he will do the Vuelta afterwards.

At least 1 of these will come true.
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Pretty much hit the nail on the head there. I was really looking forward to this year before all the crashes. Poggi is the only one to get there without an interruption to his prep. It's his to lose I guess. Then again Poggi could crash and it would be a crazy race.

Although I've been following pro cycling since I was a kid (the late 80s) and accept its mixed history there have been a few rumblings about doping again and I'm finding it hard to believe that the top guys are clean. The latest case of Andrea Piccolo is mental and it seems he was potentially trafficking HGH from South America back to Europe for god knows who. Sorry if this is a :worms: just to be clear once the racing starts I enjoy it immensely!!

For a slightly humorous, albeit worryingly well researched, take on it all check out this youtube channel - https://www.youtube.com/@cyclinghighlights

Can't wait for Pidcocks descents, Cav making history, a good GC battle (fingers crossed), Wout being Wout and the overall intensity of the Tour. The Giro was a drag this year.
 
Nails said:
I enjoyed Unchained though the dubbing is pretty awful. The voices make the Directeur Sportifs seem like much bigger arseholes than they probably are. Also there's zero discussion of any tactics which is presumably because the teams consider it too sensitive, but it makes it all a bit light on content.
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I reckon to get the best you can't not be a little bit of an arsehole!

I was very interested when they were talking about sponsors return on investment, such a fascinating look at the sport. And the Cav documentary was amazing. I really hope he gets a stage win, would be an amazing way to finish a distinguished career.
 
Beta Outdoor Sports said:
I reckon to get the best you can't not be a little bit of an arsehole!
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I thought the Bora guys and of course Madiot showed an effective alternative approach. Lefevere also seemed to be enjoying playing up to a grumpy old man persona on camera too!
 
So does anyone have any stage 1 predictions? Over 3700m of climbing however none seem to be that steep 4% ish, will the GC contendors kick off or so we think a one day specialist could take it as the profile is similar to something like Il Lombardia? It seems to be lined up for Pogi however he may not want to take yellow on the first day and go 100% for the stage win? If not Pogi then UAE have Adam Yates to go all out for the win on a stage of this profile, is obviously in good form as well coming off the win at the Tour de Suisse. Others that i think could go well in the terrain would be Remoc, Roglic and possibly Pidcock as an outsider especially if he attacks the descents and isn't considered by the GC contenders to be a major threat for the overall.
 
Maybe Poggi will go for it? He's quite into records etc. and think he was sad not to win pink on stage 1 of the Giro. I thought he was going to try and wear pink for the whole race. He might try the same at the Tour, he'd be in a select group...

Interestingly I saw an interview with him the other day and he said he'd had Covid after the Giro. Didn't know if it was real or massive shithausery!
 
Cav throwing up from what looks like overheating. Really hope he makes the time limit... Not sure he will though being nearly 8 minutes down with over 100km to go. Would be such a sad way to end, even worse than crashing.
 
Ye difficult one to predict this one. i had wondered about yates or a one day specialist rather than a gc guy but who knows with pog!
watching in spain so not able to follow the commentary re cav and what the time cut off is looking like. fingers crossed he holds on!
 
He might be ok... Seems like UAE and Bora have ramped the pace up quite early dropping several riders who will probably end up at Cavendish's group which will form the gruppeto. If it gets up to 40 or 50 riders then they will be ok and the commissaries will probably let them all continue tomorrow.
 

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