'Buy the Dip, Sell the Rip'.. The Investor's Thread

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It's a reasonable question and the answer mostly boils down to risk and to scale.

The major miners - the BHPs, RIOs, Glencores, etc. want to own and operate what are known as tier 1 assets. These are resources of such size that they have a long life of multiple decades and ore bodies of sufficient grade to be economic even during troughs in the cycle. This give these companies a low risk profile which attracts shareholders of a certain risk profile - insto's, pensions, dividend investors, etc.

There are also mid-tier and smaller mining companies - those with tier 2 / 3 assets of smaller scale hence a shorter mine life, or resources at a lower average grade that puts them further up the cost curve towards the margin of unprofitably during troughs in the cycle.

Exploration companies sit in a sweet spot - they're too small to be of any interest to majors, but some of them end up finding what the majors want: typically a junior explorer has a £5 - £50m market cap, and there are literally thousands of junior exploration companies listed on the various markets of N.America, Australia and the UK.

For a major to just buy them all would be unrealistic - very high risk (not what majors do - there'd be a shareholder revolt), v.costly, and unworkable. Imagine the wage bill and the admin. And for 99% of these companies it'd be a lot of cost and effort for nothing found.

So the next thing to think about is when should a major buy-out a junior explorer - if Rio bought 100 juniors at random they'd have blown, say, $500m - $1billion (of shareholder's money - shareholder's who want low risk and dividends), and probably find nothing that's going to repay the cost.
If Rio bought the ten junior explorers with the ten best discoveries each year, then they'd be blowing, say, $5 billion - $10 billion - a lot of capex, even to the majors. Because that's the torque and the power of a significant resource discovery to the market-cap of a junior explorer.

BHP just purchased 50% ownership of Filo (shared 50/50 with Lundin Mining) for C$2.25 billion. The game for a major is balancing waiting long enough to be confident that what you're buying will be worth the price tag plus the large capex required to develop it (in Filo's case, $6-8 billion capex to develop into a mine), versus the longer a major waits the better the resource might get and the higher the price tag.

You're wondering how come Rio's / BHP's etc. don't just take the exploration in-house. They do, they have exploration departments. But the world is still too large a place and too full of unknowns for any one organisation to have it all worked out. That's part of the wonder of resource exploration.

A common in-between approach is 'the farm-in'. This is where a junior has discovered something, not entirely certain how big yet and still far from being de-risked - a resource is only de-risked when it starts producing usually 7-12 years later and even then not entirely risk-free - but something seemingly significant to a major. The major will farm-in usually by paying $x thousands or millions to the junior, or other schemes of payment, and they get a foot in the door - ownership of anywhere from 5% to 75% of the asset. They can offer technical expertise and supply chain assistance and guide the exploration of the junior. Like a parent guiding a teenager.

That's what happened at Filo - BHP bought in a 5% stake following hole 41 because they could see immediately it was v.significant and suggested a major ore body of tier 1 scale. Thing is it only takes one drill hole like hole 41* for all us retail nerd who follow juniors to have high confidence too. And because we knew Filo is owned by a family group renowned for their success in exploration and creating shareholder value over the last 5 decades, we could be confident Filo was going to go the distance, as opposed to a common junior 'shitco' story of management lining their own pockets through endless cap-raises 'for G&A expenses' at the earliest whiff of a speck of copper.

This niche in the market is what I focus on, because I find it fascinating and also because it's what our civilisation is founded on. And I love that most people are willfully ignorant of where their stuff comes from, it's part of what makes for a market where you can do still well for yourself if you're prepared to get into the weeds and accept some risk. The key to doing it profitably isn't having some super-ability to spot the best resources early (although early'ish is quite useful), it's position sizing large when you finally do spot the emerging successes and position sizing small up until that point. In this way you can have 70% failure and make a big profit.

If you ask me about tech I haven't got a clue and my track record on investing in tech is woeful. The market is never fully efficient, but in the large sectors it is a lot more efficient. Resource investing is a tiny sector when you view it on a heat map of the overall market. Full of opportunity and market inefficiency, as I laughed to myself about when I started this thread and was being told by a certain pompous know-it-all that it's impossible to get ahead of the market intelligence.



* NGEX's initial hole into Potro Cliffs (now 'Lunahuasi') is the same thing - suggestive of a v.significant ore body. I suppose this is significant part of doing well at this game - knowing what's a good drill hole and what's just reported by management as a good drill hole. It's not that difficult to learn it just takes time and error, you don't need to be a geologist there are plenty of free learning resources out there.
 
Ditto, great info!

it's impossible to get ahead of the market intelligence

I seem to remember reading something similar in one of Taleb's books - The Black Swan probably - although I think he was a currency trader in which context in might be true.
 
Very nice artwork Pete and a great reminder of some good investments.

Well I sold out of Filo again for C$32. It's been a great journey.
Also sold out of Adriatic. I'd had the odd conversation with Michael Horner, then the news about the tailings came and Paul Cronin blew up on Twitter. So I sold at £1.80+. Obviously it's crashed a lot since and I did think of buying back in but if I'm honest, I'm not so sure where stocks in general are headed and the cash is a nice hedge.
Also sold Clarity on the ASX, a pharma tech company. The chart still looks amazing but I took my profits and I'll use them if I need to.
Met coal has took a bit of a hammering lately, which has meant my PF has too, and as usual, it's all about where the Chinese economy is headed.
Glad to have some cash currently, and I really wished I'd sold in May and gone away. It really seems to hit my PF quite badly every single year.
 
Pretty much doubled the size of my Alphamin holding too. Sub one dollar? Crazy.
Good dividend. Well, everything really. Exploration, good management, a second mine now.
Pete's explained the tin thesis well enough. I had thought to sell my MLX and buy AFM shares instead but I dunno, I just feel they'll maybe have more torque when it all goes nuts eventually.
AFM is my 3rd biggest holding, MLX my 5th.
 
Snoozed a bit the last few days and didn't catch the bottom on Adriatic, jumped 5% today. Keeping overall % low as it's still risky, but wanted to put a bit more in while it's on a dip.

Filo I'm indecisive - could sell now, but I have no real need to. Sitting at 48.5% profit since last purchase, overall much higher. It's in my SIPP, so cash isn't much use - actually...need to check what cash offerings my SIPP has, rates still being high n all.

And... Unlike Pete I won't be paying off much of the house, maybe the heating bill for a few months :lol:
 
Fultonius said:
It's in my SIPP, so cash isn't much use - actually...need to check what cash offerings my SIPP has, rates still being high n all.
I'd guess that your SIPP would allow you to hold gilts too. Sorry if you know everything about them etc and I'm just stating the obvious.

Gilts are UK government debt securities. You get fixed interest set by the price you pay for them when you buy them (currently about 5% interest). You can sell them at any point. They have various maturity lengths up to over 50years. For long dated gilts the price moves about a lot as a small change in market perception of likely future interest rates etc causes a big change in price. Short dated gilts don't move around in price much at all so are like cash.

If you hold a gilt of any length all the way to maturity, then you simply get exactly what it specifies. If you buy a long dated gilt when interest rates (aka yields) are high and sell when they are low you could get a big windfall and likewise the opposite if you screw up and do it the other way around ;D
 
Fultonius said:
Snoozed a bit the last few days and didn't catch the bottom on Adriatic, jumped 5% today. Keeping overall % low as it's still risky, but wanted to put a bit more in while it's on a dip.

Filo I'm indecisive - could sell now, but I have no real need to. Sitting at 48.5% profit since last purchase, overall much higher. It's in my SIPP, so cash isn't much use - actually...need to check what cash offerings my SIPP has, rates still being high n all.

And... Unlike Pete I won't be paying off much of the house, maybe the heating bill for a few months :lol:

When you sell the Filo you could park the cash in money markets if wanting zero risk. Royal London Short Term Money Market Fund (accumulation) gets you, currently, 4.xx% annualised in your sipp. Close to* zero risk like cash, but better than the rate you'll get on just holding cash in your sipp.

* end of the day it's still a fund - one that tracks the short-term money market. So not 'zero risk'. But about as low a risk a place to park cash there is for short-term yield, versus actually being in cash.
 
petejh said:
petejh said:
Fultonius said:
Pete, any thoughts on Aluminium Ion batteries?

Looked at this some more. An Australian company called Graphene Manufacturing Group listed on the Toronto exchange released news last week about their graphene aluminium-ion battery cells.. If they can scale this up it'd be very interesting. I've taken a small position, missed the recent big rise.

Overview: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltaylor/2021/05/13/ev-range-breakthrough-as-new-aluminum-ion-battery-charges-60-times-faster-than-lithium-ion/?sh=1b401886d287

Interview and next steps to market: http://www.kereport.com/2021/05/14/gmg-graphene-manufacturing-group-recent-graphene-aluminum-ion-battery-performance-data-and-the-next-steps-to-get-the-batteries-into-the-market/

Video released today on 'cleanerwatt': https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZp7BQnDPfE

Links to more detailed information can be found on the CEO.ca GMG board.. if you wade through the 'face-ripping' posts there are some links to good info.


Some exciting developments have been ongoing in the background for a few of my long term holds.

GMG,
Invested 5% of my pf in this between May - Nov 2021, have been sitting on this at a 70% loss since, as they progress their 2 main products through development stages towards commercialisation.
They've just reached commercialisation, and very soon first revenue, for their graphene air-con coating applied to heat exchangers/air con units. Roll-out in progress this month in the US. Awaiting final US EPA decision but looks a shoe-in (famous last words). Candian EPA equiv has been granted.
This propduct gives significant heat transfer gains (i.e. lower power useage - I might look into getting a trial pack to spray the heat exchanger if I get an air-source heat pump...).
This gives them revenue while they progress the really exciting product - the graphene aluminium-ion battery. The pouch pack battery just reach 1000mAh as announced today. Repeatability and pouch cell production plant this year are the next steps. Followed by customer trials end-year into next year. I was initially dubious about GMG as their claims seemed too good to be true, but as time passed I became more willing to see this one through due to the management credentials (ex Shell natural gas senior management); track record of passing each development milestone pretty much in accordance with guidance; apparent superiority of the battery over lithium-ion for applications requiring high power density - diesel mining vehicles for e.g.; patent protection/moat around the technology (graphene produced by their method of cracking natural gas to extract the pure carbon, perforating this carbon at nano-scale with aluminium); attracting senior management from CATL; and collaborations with Rio Tinto, Wood Group and Bosch.
Worth a look for anyone interested in the new battery technologies coming through. The revenue from their graphene air-con coating is a bonus but they'll likely still need to raise capital to build the pouch cell production plant. Or get bought out (my assumption). Good price here, way better risk/reward than my entries.
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/gmgs-graphene-aluminium-ion-battery-1000-mah-capacity
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgFOsM0uncg

Alphamin.
I've held a large position in AFM since 2021, bought at between 0.45c - 0.60c. It currently makes up around 20% of my pf. Sold a bit to pay towards my house, but holding the rest. I've already received around 20% of my initial investment back in divi's, plus 50% capital growth. Dividend for this spring is on hold as they allocated the capital to build the second mine (Mpana Sotuh).
They've now virtually completed the construction and commissioning of the second mine and processing facility at Biese. There isn't long to go until, if this is going to be successful, it really starts to motor again following a year-long wallowing around under a C$1. March start up, rapid ramp-up has been guided by management. The value for this company is barnstorming, see calcs below for free cash flow and EPS at different tin prices (not my work). If you can stomach the DRC risk then you will not find a better dividend+growth share on the market afaik.
By86snh.png



PNRL
It's moving now. Anyone following this knows the potential. The story is a huge area of conductive plates from downhole EM surveys suggesting a huge volume of nickel sulfides beneath existing infrastructure of the Selebi mine in Botswana (a low risk mining jurisdiction). Drill results are beginning to prove up the theory, a lot of drill holes still to be released over next 12-18 months. Next 2 holes are hotly anticipated based on the visuals (beware that visuals alone never a great reason to invest). I hold PNRL since Aug 2022 for 2.5% of my pf. My average is C$2 so still sitting on a loss here. I categorise it as a Filo/NGEX-scale opportunity at current price. Not same certainty as those two but each new hole answers more questions. Interesting twist is the US government getting directly involved with supporting PNRL in background, if you dyor. I think the wider nickel market imploding due to Indonesia is irrelevant here for the time-being - it's a high growth discovery story not a development value story. Will become relevant in time, if nothing changes in the nickel market.


Risk higher-lower (imo):
GMG
PNRL
AFM

Saw a press release from first graphene about a battery breakthrough. Wondering if there's any legs in it. They've haemorraged money the last few years, but still limping on!
 
Fultonius said:
Saw a press release from first graphene about a battery breakthrough. Wondering if there's any legs in it. They've haemorraged money the last few years, but still limping on!

Press releases about battery breakthroughs are everywhere while new battery tech that can compete on the open market is extremely rare, so a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted. Scalability, manufacturability and cost are massive when it comes to turning research in to a working battery.
 
Oh totally, I should have made it clear - I wasn't seeking a "buy" request, more wondering of anyone had any insights as I know there are graphene officionados here.
 
Having had a another look, it wasn't batteries at all!

It was even more rintersting, but still only a very shaky signal on the investment front!

They've signed and agreement with Halocell to supply graphene for their Perovskite solar cells. I'm not that up on solar tech, but I do rememeber Perovskite showing a lot of promise.

https://www.perovskite-info.com/halocell-and-first-graphene-enter-agreement-supply-graphene-perovskite-solar
 
This should really not be in this thread! It should really be an a "interesting tech development thread"....and I should really go a bit more basic internet trawling before posting :lol:
 
For those invested in or more importantly, interested in investing in Alphamin - I've put a link to a recent site visit.
It's my biggest holding again, after the last dip under CAD1.00 and they've now increased their dividend by 3c.
Obviously one of Pete's favourites and he's given the tin thesis enough airtime for everyone to understand it, however, I thought a site visit might be of interest to some.

https://yellowlablifecapital.substack.com/p/the-eucalyptus-tree-goes-to-the-moon?utm_campaign=post&triedRedirect=true
 
Filo is currently sitting at $32.83, and the agreed sale with Lundin/BHP is at $33.

Is my understanding correct that this has run it's course and there literally no point holding any longer? Literally the first time I've had shares in a company that's been taken over so unsurprisingly, a total noob here. Seem easier to cash out now than wait for the sale to go through?

I've not really got an interest in having Lundin shares.
 
Was going to reply regarding a few developments (inc. the graphene) but have been busy.

Sell now for current market price, or wait for deal completion for $33 (+ some Lundin Mining shares for equiv of $33 per filo share - can't remember the exact breakdown of the deal off top of my head). I sold all my Filo last month.
 
Activity has been fairly quiet since selling Filo in Sept. Some things now coming to fruition:

NGEX, share price has been rising again and breached the $11 resistance level late Sept, as the southern hemisphere summer drill campaign got underway.. the market anticipating first drill results sometime in the next few weeks. Good results probably now priced in. The grade, quality and significance of Lunahiuasi now beyond doubt, all that remains is how big it is by volume. This season is the largest drill campaign at Lunahuasi since the discovery, there'll be a good 5-6 months of news flow ahead.
I don't expect by this time next year NGEX to not have been subject of some sort of corporate activity. Probable outcome as I've said previously is some sort of spin-off of Lunahuasi or a JV or buy-out involving Lundin and a.n.other. Similar to Filo earlier this year. I'm over 100% up on ngex now but happy to hold as per Filo. If the drills report as per expectations then my expectation is price would find resistance around 15, where market cap would be around C$2.8bn. Filo sold for C$4.1bn, so ultimately NGEX could go higher than 15 but despite proximity it isn't the same set-up as Filo... Lunahuasi sits just inside the border of La Rioja province, to the north of San Juan province which Filo sits in, San Juan the allegedly more mining friendly of the two / Lunahuasi proximity to the protected landscape of Potro glacier / Lunahuasi underground narrow vein and no bulk open pit starter.
Btw when you google 'La Rioja Province' you get a picture of some impressive desert walls in Talampaya national park....

Alphamin. As expected Alphamin increased the interim dividend. Up 100% from 3c to 6c. The share went ex-divi yesterday. The company is a cash-flow monster now that Mpana South has begun production. Share price has come back out of hibernation from under $1 while Mpana South was under construction and the tin price was below $30k, to now reflect successful opening of MS and subsequent increased production at a consistent tin spot price back above $30k. Outlook for tin has been talked about lots here. Since selling Filo, Alphamin have become my largest holding at around 25% of my book and I intend to hold for the long term. The divi return on original investment a few years ago) is around 17% per year, on top of the share price growth. Company still offers a ~10% annual divi for investors at current share price. With little debt and no major capex it'll be no surprise to see either the divi increase further next year, or ongoing distribution of special divi's aligned with periods of strength/weakness in the tin price.

Adriatic overcame worries about the tailings storage facility and announced this week all permits received from the Bosnia H-G gov. There are reportedly lots of short sellers in Australian mining companies, including Adriatic, I read somewhere it may be a blanket approach across Aus mining companies from far east investors, but who tf knows, probably never will. Shorts haven't reduced during the current price rise so there's a possible set-up for an interesting squeeze unless the short side know something the rest of the market doesn't (capital raise..? Would be far from the first time for ADT). Adriatic reports Q3 results next week, price has risen back to around where it should be for this stage in the ramp-up. All eyes will be on the monthly production figures to see how well they're closing in on the 66,666 tons per month target required to hit the feasibility study's 800k tons per year full production. The figure went from 5k/month July to 25k/month August when the 1/2 year interim reported last month. Hopefully will also get some indications of the cost of production - cost per ton was a very low figure in the feasibility study but everyone expects it'll be higher in reality. But by how much is uncertain.. may not get much clarity in Q3 as probably too early in the ramp-up. End of year should know better. The interim CEO took the job full time and seems a good pair of hands. Silver and zinc spot prices are booming. Nothing not to like here apart from the usual 'constructing and ramping up a mine is hard (unless you're Alphamin), takes a long time, and lots can go wrong'. I wouldn't buy at 2.20 as the opportunity was there for a long time under 2, and the market still isn't convinced Adriatic are out of the woods (which is a good thing) so price may dip if Q3 throws a curve ball. Long term my target still is 3 - 3.50
 
Post-selling Filo thought I would post up my full portfolio. My position is 30% Cash (mostly in short-term money market fund returning ~5%) and 70% Equities.
Of the equities most are resource/commodity focussed. There are longer term holdings with a focus on income. Some growth-focussed shares in explorer/development/early stage producers at varying levels of risk. And like most people a few bagholdings I ignore in the bottom drawer. Plus some tiny punts that I assume will go to zero. My focus has gradually shifted over last 4-5 yrs from growth to income, will likely continue to go this way as I sell down growth and focus on dividend/interest income from investments/cash.

Equities by size of holding:

Alphamin (35%) - plenty already said.

Greatland Gold (10%) Legacy holding after selling most of my shares in the 30ps/high 20ps for around a 20x gain. Shows how many shares I’d bought at 1.5p, to still have a significant chunk after making that sort of gain! They should do OK again eventually, for a rise to the teens as they begin to generate decent cashflow after finally becoming a producer at the end of this year. Bit of a tragic could-have- been story for many longterm bagholders who didn't sell when they should have and endured the painful round trip from 5 - to 35 - back to 5.

Adriatic Metals (9.6%) - plenty already said.

Whitehaven Coal (7.5%) Former thermal coal producer that transitioned to met coal, still has some thermal legacy. Very chunky dividend payer over the energy crisis post-Ukraine, they used the billions in revenue from high thermal coal prices to acquire 2 metalurgical coal mines in Queensland from BHP - who were divesting due to wanting to comply with ESG-capital pressures.. something which Whitehaven being a cash-rich coal only company don't have to worry about as everyone has shunned them for years. Sale process now complete. The next 10-15 yrs should see high dividend returns from a consistent long-term global demand for met coal. Reports over the past 10 years of coal's death were very much exaggerated as it turned out that people the world over both like and need steel, plus cheap baseload electricity while the switch to renewables grows out. EAF steel supply will grow but won't be anywhere enough to meet demand in the near to mid term. Plus thermal coal demand very strong from SE Asia through to 2030 then slowly declining. Last week in the 2024 world energy outlook report thermal coal demand in 2030 had been revised 6% upwards cf 2023's report due to SE Asia's electricity demand, mainly China and India's (residential, data centres, manufacturing - where does your stuff come from and why is it affordable?), following which a decline to 2050+. Upwards revisions to forecasts can obviously turn out to be just as much bullshit as 'coal is dead' forecasts but the 'coal is dead' ESG narrative from the last decade was fluffy rhetoric now meeting the hard wall of reality - in this case it created the opportunity to buy up the few remaining coal producing companies like Whitehaven and Warrior cheap.

Ecora Resources (7.5%) Energy transition metals / renewables royalty company paying a 4% divi. Near the bottom of the downtrend imo. A long-term hold for me - I bought far too high during the commodity boom years post-covid as I hadn't done proper research on how much their annual income would be impacted by them transitioning away from the majority coal royalties from Kestrel coal mine. I’m down 60%. At least now looking to me like good value based on Voissey's Bay cobalt ramping up production 2nd half of this year from underground (Voisseys Bay a multi decades mines life) with other copper development projects pencilled to come online over the second half of this decade, it could be a strong second half of the decade from here but hard to call a bottom in the price as prices can go to irrationally cheap levels. Steady dividend outlook (although half what it used to be), I'll get paid to wait at least. CEO has been buying on the market at various prices below £1.

NGEX (6.5%) the current Lundin group exploration darling. Up around 110%, sold a little bit near $10 will be holding the rest over results season and beyond.

Altius Minerals (5%) Renewables / energy transition metals royalty company paying a small divi. Bought at a bit of a high a few years ago but now doing ok, up around 10%. Waiting for the resolution of a legal dispute over royalty rights to the v.juicy Silicon/Merlin project in Nevada. Assuming it's positive for Altius I'll likely sell if it hits $28, as I see limited upside beyond.

AMRK (3.5%) - a precious metals shovels ‘n picks play. Up a few %.

Patriot Battery Metals (3.5%) - I’m underwater by around 50% on Patriot after being up over 100% - such is the journey of an investment in resource exploration. Quite content to sit with Patriot - it’s the Filo of lithium: the best undeveloped hard-rock lithium discovery globally, in a good jurisdiction and with good management. Lithium spot prices are in the dungeon due to lower than expected global demand but won’t stay there forever, if the world eventually commits to leaving ICE behind and going fully EV and large scale battery storage. And this won’t stay at $3-4 forever.

Rome Resources (1.8%) - Alphamin's degenerate neighbour with the same exploration geo's and team who discovered/developed AFM’s project. Potential for 5-10x on repeatedly good drills results or go to zero on poor drill results :) I'm currently up 50% on market excitement around visual cores and expect to lose all of that on actual assays.

Warrior Met Coal (1.5%) - High quality US metallurgical coal producer, I’m targeting $80-120 on successful development of Blue Creek project. Currently flat.

Premium Nickel Resources (1%) – another one that I’m 50% underwater on. Nickel price in the dungeon cell next-door to lithium, this time due to Indonesian nickel swamping the market. We don’t care about highly destructive mining and manufacturing processes though as long as the cheaper batteries make our EV affordable right? :) Happy to see it through the stages of feasibility study and eventual nickel price recovery. The play is still the same here as when I first mentioned it.. the gap between selebi north and main needs to be drilled out, if/when this happens it should transform the picture. Frustratingly slow progress but still much promise. A large overhang of seed-investor shares to clear through unfortunately.

Touchstone Exploration (1%) - Trinidadian oil/gas producer & developer, should come good eventually but has been slow-going to ramp-up production. I’m down 30% but happy holding as the downside here is minimal with good upside.

Thor Exploration (0.8%) - Nigerian gold producer.. waiting to break even or small gain and will sell. Not really into either pure gold plays (despite having done well from it), or Nigeria, as an investment. Down 10%

Graphene Manufacturing Group (0.8%) - bagholder since $6 so down around 85%, but still excited about this company and happy to watch it run the entirety of the battery development journey and to see if there's large scale interest in the energy demand reductions from its air-con coating product.. which reduces air-con energy consumption by a stated 18%. Could be something special, just depends how much dilution ultimately required for the battery to reach commercial sales, but they're making revenue on the air-con coating product now so... (who am I kidding.. - my track record on tech is abysmal). If I had a heat pump then I'd be considering asking GMG for a trial tub of their TXP graphene coating to see if I could improve the heat transfer by ~18% as per their studies..

Mirasol (0.02%) - copper/gold explorer on Chilean side of the Filo ridge - a nearolgy play, expecting nothing.
Polarean Imaging (<0.1%) - bagholder, 97% down on this in line with my track record on investing in biotech. Bottom drawer and ignored.
Orosur (<0.1%) - volatile junior explorer shitco with potential for 10x returns or 90+% losses: for me has 3-times been the latter so I hold a miniscule position out of spite to see if I can ever make any money from this p.o.s. Currently flat, expecting zero. :)
 
Pete, I'm most nosey about the most boring part, your 30% as cash. Is that just waiting to move into stocks when you spot something? Or is it waiting until equity valuations overall more take your fancy? Or is it a long term strategic allocation decision that you rebalance into and out of to keep it at roughly 30%? Or something totally different?

If it is some sort of long term allocation, is it a clear cut decision to hold it as cash rather than as say longer term gilts or whatever?
 

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