'Buy the Dip, Sell the Rip'.. The Investor's Thread

[petejh]

Thanks for posting Pete, be really interesting to see how this plays out. Seems like for the EV market where generally people are looking to be environmentally aware, the green credentials of the raw materials should be easy to bring into play.

Long answer which would involve a rant, so I'll desist. Short version: Just, no! In an ideal world, yes. But that isn't how people are incentivised to purchase products in the real world, and it isn't how the world works. Unfortunately.

Is there any currently any market differentiation in oil or other raw products between production with high ESG production vs ‘dirtier’ producers?

Trade in tungsten, tin, tantalum and gold is regulated by conflict metals regulations which 'only' came in 2012 (came into frce in 2021 in the EU). See here (US): https://www.sec.gov/opa/Article/2012-2012-163htm---related-materials.html
And here (EU): https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/development-and-sustainability/conflict-minerals-regulation/regulation-explained_en

So it's possible (but definitely not easy!)


Not for oil. But again there should be. In a world where we were all rational beings, interested in emissions more than feeling good and optics to our peers.

Carbon intensity of a megajoule of oil across all oil-producing nations. Mathematical challenge: in a world of continued oil demand 'x' (i.e. reality), solve for how to most efficiently reduce emissions of co2 equiv while keeping oil at output 'y'.
(tldr, don't slash production from the nations at high production levels with lower-intensity carbon emissions)


Country grams of CO2eq/MJ Co-product displacement 5%ile error bar 95%ile error bar grams of CO2eq/MJ Allocation by energy Number of fields

Syria 29.8 25.1 45.5 29.8 30
Democratic Republic of Congo 29.2 21.4 39.2 29.2 13
Uzbekistan 27.4 20.1 39.0 26.4 35
Yemen 26.9 21.4 37.8 23.7 25
Albania 23.7 13.3 39.7 22.7 6
Algeria 20.3 17.7 30.3 20.1 93
Venezuela 20.3 15.0 31.9 19.9 251
Myanmar 20.2 14.4 49.4 19.0 15
Cameroon 18.4 15.0 26.7 18.1 48
Canada 17.6 15.6 22.3 17.7 84
Iran 17.1 14.0 23.1 17.4 79
Turkmenistan 15.9 12.3 22.8 16.8 24
Tunisia 15.4 13.7 25.2 15.3 52
Indonesia 15.3 12.0 82.5 15.1 482
Georgia 15.2 10.5 23.5 15.0 11
Sudan 14.9 11.1 22.2 14.8 40
Mauritania 14.8 12.3 20.3 14.8 1
Trinidad and Tobago 14.3 9.9 27.0 14.4 63
Iraq 14.1 13.1 18.5 14.0 46
Gabon 13.2 11.2 20.6 13.1 69
Malaysia 12.9 10.5 19.4 12.8 79
Nigeria 12.6 11.3 16.6 12.4 207
Pakistan 12.2 11.2 23.0 12.0 63
Ukraine 11.8 10.4 24.0 11.9 127
Oman 11.7 10.4 20.2 11.7 138
Philippines 11.6 6.4 16.1 11.5 3
Niger 11.3 8.3 17.1 11.5 3
United States 11.3 9.1 17.3 11.3 824
Chile 11.2 10.0 24.0 11.2 15
Libya 11.0 8.7 19.4 11.2 34
Peru 10.9 7.1 25.8 11.1 50
Republic of Congo 10.6 7.6 15.4 10.6 42
Egypt 10.6 8.7 17.7 10.6 351
Brazil 10.3 7.3 13.2 10.5 267
Chad 10.2 8.1 17.2 10.2 13
Mexico 9.9 6.9 11.2 9.9 204
Guatemala 9.8 6.8 16.2 9.8 7
Lithuania 9.7 8.0 23.1 9.8 15
Russian Federation 9.7 8.5 17.0 9.7 1688
Kazakhstan 9.7 8.2 16.8 9.7 190
Kyrgyzstan 9.4 7.1 35.8 9.5 10
Tajikistan 9.4 6.7 17.5 9.5 11
Morocco 9.3 7.8 19.4 9.5 2
Ecuador 9.3 7.2 16.7 9.5 123
Barbados 9.3 8.2 20.5 9.5 5
Argentina 9.1 6.8 20.2 9.4 232
Australia 9.1 8.0 16.2 9.4 202
Cuba 9.0 7.5 17.9 9.2 18
Bolivia 9.0 4.9 17.6 9.2 4
Latvia 8.9 7.8 16.8 9.2 1
Vietnam 8.8 7.5 12.9 9.2 33
Belize 8.8 8.1 18.6 9.0 1
Bulgaria 8.6 7.4 25.5 9.0 10
India 8.6 7.0 16.0 8.9 179
Papua New Guinea 8.5 7.8 17.7 8.9 8
Turkey 8.4 6.7 16.7 8.9 117
Colombia 8.3 5.9 15.9 8.8 364
Afghanistan 8.3 6.9 16.6 8.7 2
Suriname 8.2 6.4 14.6 8.5 3
Poland 8.2 6.9 19.3 8.5 44
New Zealand 8.2 4.5 12.6 8.4 15
United Kingdom 7.9 7.4 10.7 8.3 182
Hungary 7.9 6.7 19.8 8.3 62
Croatia 7.8 6.8 17.6 8.3 38
Germany 7.7 5.7 15.3 8.2 51
Japan 7.7 6.2 21.2 8.2 15
Serbia 7.7 6.5 19.2 8.2 30
Austria 7.6 5.9 21.3 8.0 38
France 7.5 5.3 17.3 7.8 63
Angola 7.5 6.6 14.1 7.8 78
Romania 7.4 6.3 21.6 7.7 210
United Arab Emirates 7.1 5.7 14.9 7.5 27
China 7.0 5.6 14.0 7.2 619
Kuwait 6.9 5.9 13.9 7.1 18
Qatar 6.5 6.0 10.8 7.0 12
Equatorial Guinea 6.4 4.5 9.4 6.8 13
Jordan 6.3 5.8 14.7 6.8 1
Azerbaijan 6.3 4.9 9.4 6.8 44
Cote d'Ivoire 6.1 5.8 9.1 6.7 3
Italy 6.1 5.5 13.9 6.7 22
Greece 5.9 5.4 10.4 6.6 2
Brunei 5.7 3.7 12.5 6.4 18
Norway 5.6 4.8 10.8 6.4 120
Ghana 5.2 4.4 7.4 6.0 2
Thailand 5.1 3.8 11.4 5.9 56
Bahrain 5.0 4.8 10.1 5.3 1
Saudi Arabia 4.6 4.4 6.6 5.1 33
Spain 4.1 3.7 11.4 5.0 6
Netherlands 3.9 3.4 9.7 4.9 16
Denmark 3.3 3.1 7.0 4.9 15



* from: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aar6859
Comment here: https://news.stanford.edu/2018/08/30/measuring-crude-oils-carbon-footprint/

 

[teestub]

Thanks Pete, some interesting data, I guess the ‘S’ of ESG has to be a factor too.

Interested in you expending your thoughts on the below, but understand if you don’t want to. We have a drive for ethical consumption in food and clothing for example, so if a western car manufacturer could use their ‘cleaner’ raw materials to differentiate their £40k EV from the £20k ones about to come out of china, it seems like you could sway some people?

Long answer which would involve a rant, so I'll desist. Short version: Just, no! In an ideal world, yes. But that isn't how people are incentivised to purchase products in the real world, and it isn't how the world works. Unfortunately.

 

[petejh]

Nickel and lithium have tanked over the last 12 months (palladium too, I've zero interest in palladium).

Copper/gold/silver are doing well (Filo/Ngex are copper/gold/silver deposits)

Nickel is a very interesting one, which I think we'll maybe start to hear about years from now as a pollution disaster.
Indonesia, with Chinese funding and technical support, recently cracked how to produce class 1 nickel from nickel laterite using a method known as high pressure acid leaching. This had not been possible until very recently despite some other companies trying unsuccessfully over many years.

Consequently Indonesian nickel has been swamping the global market over last 12 months, hence the price drop. But their method is very heavily polluting (and also benefits from cheap coal-powered electricity generation). The issue is the waste produced and how to store it safely, compared to the other ways of producing nickel. We're all using Indonesian nickel in our cheap batteries and in our cheap stainless steel, manufactured with coal power, and the western nickel producers are pissed off that the metals markets which the car-makers and steel manufactures operate within gives no green premium for 'clean' nickel.

It's relative, still a big hole in the ground but class 1 nickel from an Australian or Brazilian nickel sulfide deposit is way less polluting than Indonesian nickel using HPAL, from a nickel laterite deposit. Does anyone in the west care enough to demand metal markets put a price premium on the dirty nickel? We'll find out.. By then much of the western nickel production may have closed down because it's too high on the cost curve - as has just happened at Wyloo's Australian nickel operations which shut don this week. https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/forrest-shuts-wa-mines-as-nickel-dominoes-tumble-20240121-p5eyvo
Australian miners are frustrated with the LME’s refusal to create a “green” category within its class 1 nickel pricing structure, and identify the potential for rival exchanges to seize on this and the LME’s own historic nickel woes.

The Forrest camp is hopeful UK-based Global Commodities Holdings will emerge as an LME challenger, as well as Singapore-based ABAXX and the CME Group, the world’s biggest derivatives exchange.

“The LME is awash with pollutive nickel, which is squeezing out clean nickel from Australian producers,” Wyloo chief executive Luca Giacovazzi said on Sunday.

I'd encourage anyone interested in a basic overview of clean versus dirty nickel to have a read of the above article (bearing in mind its a biased (but correct afaik) view by an Australian company in an Australian business paper)

A more technical explainer here from woodmac on how Indonesia has cracked using high pressure acid leaching to produce nickel: https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/rise-of-indonesian-hpal/

This might be like cobalt, which will work it's way through the public consciousness over years until eventually the average member of the public one day will associate nickel with 'bad things' as they do cobalt, because they read something in the daily mail or heard something on R4. By which time we'll be a very long way down the road (literally in our EV's), and Indonesia will have fucked it's coastal environment.

It does make me roll my eyes/laugh/weep that average public in the west have no care to be a little bit more curious about what lies behind the affordability of their cars/machines/buildings/consumables. No western car company is going to rock the boat unless one (or better multiple) governments demand it, and no government is going to rock the boat unless large swathes of the public demand it. Willful ignorance.

Centuras Metals (Brazialian nickel sulfide development project, powered by hydro-generated power) are a steal at current price, tanking due to the nickel price sentiment. I'm not invested as I sold for a big gain above $1.

I am invested in Premium Nickel but that's a different play, all about potential discovery of a huge underground deposit beneath historic mine workings i.e. an exploration play but with lots of juice due to the infrastructure already being in place from the historic mine (quick/easy buyout, low development cost relative to asset). Assuming their drilling confirms what looks like a huge nickel/copper/cobalt deposit beneath the historic workings, and I obviously think it will.

Lithium I haven't bothered following the reasoning, it'll come back. Cyclical markets doing what they do.


* btw you can easily track LME spot and 3-month futures for ferrous and non-ferrous metals here: https://www.lme.com/en/Metals/Non-ferrous

Following on from the above, good piece today in the FT about concerns. https://www.ft.com/content/dd9434b4-04e5-474d-85ff-7149f89efd19?shareType=nongift

This is essentially the bigger picture that has been developing for various commodities since a few years pre-Ukraine - pressure on the west via control of commodities. I think the west is concerned enough now about western nickel miners and development projects hitting the wall that a premium for more sustainable nickel (than Indonesia's) has legs. If it happens, watch companies like CTM and PNRL fly. (PNRL will anyway imo, as the questions are gradually getting answered about what lies under the old Selebi mine workings).

 

[petejh]

Pete, any thoughts on Aluminium Ion batteries?

Looked at this some more. An Australian company called Graphene Manufacturing Group listed on the Toronto exchange released news last week about their graphene aluminium-ion battery cells.. If they can scale this up it'd be very interesting. I've taken a small position, missed the recent big rise.

Overview: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltaylor/2021/05/13/ev-range-breakthrough-as-new-aluminum-ion-battery-charges-60-times-faster-than-lithium-ion/?sh=1b401886d287

Interview and next steps to market: http://www.kereport.com/2021/05/14/gmg-graphene-manufacturing-group-recent-graphene-aluminum-ion-battery-performance-data-and-the-next-steps-to-get-the-batteries-into-the-market/

Video released today on 'cleanerwatt': https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZp7BQnDPfE

Links to more detailed information can be found on the CEO.ca GMG board.. if you wade through the 'face-ripping' posts there are some links to good info.

Some exciting developments have been ongoing in the background for a few of my long term holds.

GMG,
Invested 5% of my pf in this between May - Nov 2021, have been sitting on this at a 70% loss since, as they progress their 2 main products through development stages towards commercialisation.
They've just reached commercialisation, and very soon first revenue, for their graphene air-con coating applied to heat exchangers/air con units. Roll-out in progress this month in the US. Awaiting final US EPA decision but looks a shoe-in (famous last words). Candian EPA equiv has been granted.
This propduct gives significant heat transfer gains (i.e. lower power useage - I might look into getting a trial pack to spray the heat exchanger if I get an air-source heat pump...).
This gives them revenue while they progress the really exciting product - the graphene aluminium-ion battery. The pouch pack battery just reach 1000mAh as announced today. Repeatability and pouch cell production plant this year are the next steps. Followed by customer trials end-year into next year. I was initially dubious about GMG as their claims seemed too good to be true, but as time passed I became more willing to see this one through due to the management credentials (ex Shell natural gas senior management); track record of passing each development milestone pretty much in accordance with guidance; apparent superiority of the battery over lithium-ion for applications requiring high power density - diesel mining vehicles for e.g.; patent protection/moat around the technology (graphene produced by their method of cracking natural gas to extract the pure carbon, perforating this carbon at nano-scale with aluminium); attracting senior management from CATL; and collaborations with Rio Tinto, Wood Group and Bosch.
Worth a look for anyone interested in the new battery technologies coming through. The revenue from their graphene air-con coating is a bonus but they'll likely still need to raise capital to build the pouch cell production plant. Or get bought out (my assumption). Good price here, way better risk/reward than my entries.
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/gmgs-graphene-aluminium-ion-battery-1000-mah-capacity
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgFOsM0uncg

Alphamin.
I've held a large position in AFM since 2021, bought at between 0.45c - 0.60c. It currently makes up around 20% of my pf. Sold a bit to pay towards my house, but holding the rest. I've already received around 20% of my initial investment back in divi's, plus 50% capital growth. Dividend for this spring is on hold as they allocated the capital to build the second mine (Mpana Sotuh).
They've now virtually completed the construction and commissioning of the second mine and processing facility at Biese. There isn't long to go until, if this is going to be successful, it really starts to motor again following a year-long wallowing around under a C$1. March start up, rapid ramp-up has been guided by management. The value for this company is barnstorming, see calcs below for free cash flow and EPS at different tin prices (not my work). If you can stomach the DRC risk then you will not find a better dividend+growth share on the market afaik.

PNRL
It's moving now. Anyone following this knows the potential. The story is a huge area of conductive plates from downhole EM surveys suggesting a huge volume of nickel sulfides beneath existing infrastructure of the Selebi mine in Botswana (a low risk mining jurisdiction). Drill results are beginning to prove up the theory, a lot of drill holes still to be released over next 12-18 months. Next 2 holes are hotly anticipated based on the visuals (beware that visuals alone never a great reason to invest). I hold PNRL since Aug 2022 for 2.5% of my pf. My average is C$2 so still sitting on a loss here. I categorise it as a Filo/NGEX-scale opportunity at current price. Not same certainty as those two but each new hole answers more questions. Interesting twist is the US government getting directly involved with supporting PNRL in background, if you dyor. I think the wider nickel market imploding due to Indonesia is irrelevant here for the time-being - it's a high growth discovery story not a development value story. Will become relevant in time, if nothing changes in the nickel market.


Risk higher-lower (imo):
GMG
PNRL
AFM

 

[James Malloch]

I have some money in an HL ISA at the moment which is just sat there. I’ve already opened a cash ISA this year so can’t just transfer it to another.

Are there any low-risk investments which you can invest in via an S&S ISA? Fixed rate bonds etc? Or bigger companies paying a dividend which would be seen as fairly stable?

 

[stone]

I have some money in an HL ISA at the moment which is just sat there. I’ve already opened a cash ISA this year so can’t just transfer it to another.

Are there any low-risk investments which you can invest in via an S&S ISA? Fixed rate bonds etc? Or bigger companies paying a dividend which would be seen as fairly stable?

I think it is worth giving this site a look https://portfoliocharts.com/
Yes you can both hold bonds and dividend paying stocks in a S&S ISA but it takes a small selection of holdings (as explained in the link) to get to something fairly stable in real terms.

 

[petejh]

If the cash in your Hargreaves Lansdowne S&S ISA is from previous years ISA subscription then you can normally transfer it to your current cash ISA - check their T&C's but most allow it. I've done exactly this with some cash that was in my ii S&S ISA.

Current rates in cash ISA's aren't terrible, they're probably the best place for cash if you want low risk. You could fix at 5% for a year or 4.6% for 2 years. Hard to better that with any 'low risk' investment. https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/best-cash-isa/


If you want to keep your cash in your H&L ISA then a low-risk option for short-term cash is a money market fund. Look at the Royal London short term money market fund. It returned around 5% last 12 months. I've also used this fund for short-term cash holdings within my ii ISA. It tracks the overnight rate for interbank lending, so closely linked to interest rates.

Royal London money market fund: https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/r/royal-london-short-term-money-market-class-y-accumulation

Longer term, if low risk performance is your goal then I'd steer well clear of any investment funds suggested in that portfolio charts site, you'll lose money in fund costs once you start using multiple funds.. Not worth it for low risk 'cash-like' performance, but possibly a good shout for a long-term 'put it in and forget about it' if you choose 1 index tracker fund. If you want to do that just find the absolute cheapest global index tracker - you can get away with paying less than 0.2% in annual charges. This has all you need to know on index trackers: https://monevator.com/best-global-tracker-funds/

 

[Bradders]

I have some money in an HL ISA at the moment which is just sat there. I’ve already opened a cash ISA this year so can’t just transfer it to another.

You can transfer money held in an existing ISA (cash or S&S) to another ISA (also cash or S&S) whenever you want, including to the cash ISA you opened this year or any other account (including opening a new one). It's not new money being credited to the account so won't affect your overall ISA sub limit.

RE your second question; the question to ask yourself first is what is your time horizon, i.e. what is that money for / when do you expect to want to use it?

As a for instance, if you have a very long time horizon (say 10 years plus), putting it into a low risk and therefore likely low return investment (or cash) will ultimately lose you money to inflation, especially at the moment.

If you think you're going to need it in the next 5 years, and you have a low tolerance to risk (i.e. if it went down in value and you then needed to access it and this caused you significant problems), well there are lots of cash savings options ATM which are near zero risk.

Edit: Pete beat me to it but I'd written it so posted anyway

 

[James Malloch]

Thanks for the responses.

Unfortunately I can’t transfer the funds into my Halifax Cash ISA for some reason - it wasn’t clear exactly why on the phone with them, something about fund windows being closed. I’ve also used up my allowance for the year so can’t withdraw and put it elsewhere.

The Royal London money market fund looks like it could be good. Is it essentially paying a daily interest rate linked to the BoE rate?

I guess this is something that could be exited at any point?

It is for a relatively short term (maybe 18 months) until we may use it to pay off some of our mortgage depending on how rates are looking when we come to renew next year. At the moment it is just sat there being eroded by inflation, so anything “safe” is better than nothing at the moment.

 

[petejh]

I think your person on the phone is probably wrong. You can transfer your old ISA cash to the Halifax ISA.

A money market fund is a fund that invests in short term (under a year) very liquid generally ‘safe’ assets like short term gov bonds. It’s almost as low risk as cash but a better return. You’d purchase units (just like buying shares) and the return you’d receive is generated via the price of the fund’s units increasing.
You can access your cash whenever you like by selling the units. So a more accessible way of generating a decent low-risk return than fixing in a savings account.

Sounds like you’re on the margin of the timescale where I’d consider fixing a 12-month interest rate in a cash-ISA savings account, thereby guaranteeing yourself just over 5% for 12 months.

The money market fund will return roughly around whatever the BoE interest rate averages out at over the next twelve months. Could be less than 5% if rates do begin to drop, could be more if inflation reignites and rates remain elevated.

 

[James Malloch]

I think your person on the phone is probably wrong. You can transfer your old ISA cash to the Halifax ISA.

A money market fund is a fund that invests in short term (under a year) very liquid generally ‘safe’ assets like short term gov bonds. It’s almost as low risk as cash but a better return. You’d purchase units (just like buying shares) and the return you’d receive is generated via the price of the fund’s units increasing.

Sounds like you’re on the margin of the timescale where I’d consider fixing a 12-month interest rate in a cash-ISA savings account, thereby guaranteeing yourself just over 5% for 12 months.

The money market fund will return roughly around whatever the BoE interest rate averages out at over the next twelve months. Could be less than 5% if rates do begin to drop, could be more if inflation reignites and rates remain elevated.

I will try calling Halifax back and see what they say later on then, thanks. That ISA only has 5 months left of a 12 month fix at 5.5%, but I figured putting it in there would get me a decent chunk of interest before looking for a new deal in July on the combined amounts when it closes.

I think that as I opened this fixed rate one in late July, I wouldn’t be able to open another until April? Otherwise I would do as you say and get another 12m fix.

If Halifax for whatever reason won’t transfer it, then I will go for the money market fund. It seems an easy option for now. Even when rates start dropping it would be better to get a few months of growth at the current levels.

I’m guessing with the money market fund, if it were to give say 5% in the next 12 months, I could still withdraw it anytime before then and just take whatever growth it had seen up until that point?

 

[petejh]

Riiight.. if your existing cash isa is a 12-month fixed rate (I didn’t know this) then it will likely will have had an initial funding window of x-weeks when you first opened the account. Once that window is passed you can’t add any more funds. That’s maybe what your person is talking about. So yeah if that’s the case you wouldn’t now be able to put any more cash into it.


Yes you can withdraw from a money market fund whenever you want. It’s just like selling a share whenever you want.

 

[Bradders]

Riiight.. if your existing cash isa is a 12-month fixed rate (I didn’t know this) then it will likely will have had an initial funding window of x-weeks when you first opened the account. Once that window is passed you can’t add any more funds. That’s maybe what your person is talking about. So yeah if that’s the case you wouldn’t now be able to put any more cash into it.

Yes that'll be it. A fix is a fix so whilst the interest rate doesn't change, often with these the balance won't either.

However, that doesn't mean you can't open another cash ISA somewhere else. Again, if you have prior year ISA subscriptions sat somewhere you can move them wherever you want without affecting this year's headroom (and provided as above the receiving account accepts transfers).

 

[James Malloch]

Cheers Pete/Nick, I appreciate the advice. I hadn’t realised that would make a difference - I’m a bit clueless when it comes to savings, I’ve always just had money in accounts making basically nothing. Decided it is about time to sort something out and start earning a bit from it!

 

[James Malloch]

.

 

[petejh]

Here's a fun opportunity for space nerds to indulge in some wall-street bets type degeneracy.. today the lunar lander 'Odysseus' carries out some engine burn tests prior to commencing entry into lunar orbit, and an attempt tomorrow at the first lunar landing by the US since 1972 . News: https://www.space.com/intuitive-machines-moon-lander-engine-burns-on-track

The lunar lander was built by a public-listed company called Intuitive Machines - ticker 'LUNR'
Their the share price is currently also moon-bound on the excitement surrounding this event. Talk about event-driven investing!

Chart below, up ~400% since the mission launched last week. Today it's up another 25% pre-market. Market opens 2.30pm UK.

You can watch the landing live on NASA's youtube tomorrow afternoon, here: https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-artemis-science-first-intuitive-machines-flight-head-to-moon/

So here's a chance to do some online gambling and place a bet on a horse lunar landing. This is not a recommendation! Sell on a successful landing (sell the news). The price has just closed the 'gap' I circled in yellow, I'd expect it to hit one of the two levels in red I've lined up around $22 or $40. I'd then expect price to plunge back to earth quicker than the lunar module! If landing is unsuccessful, well you lose at a guess 70-90%. But who knows, it could be one of those max-stupid event driven things that captures the public sentiment just right.

edit: btw if the normal LUNR share is too boring for you, you can buy the warrants (LUNRW) for increased rocket fuel, +ve120% yesterday versus a sedentary +ve50% for the normal share

 

[petejh]

Scheduled to softly touch down (or smash into pieces) on the moon at 10.30pm UK time: https://twitter.com/nasa/status/1760483302807368171?s=46&t=6d-8pE1NdoFl1h5W80yCwA

Sneakily 90mins after the Nasdaq closes.. expect it'll be a volatile last hour.

 

[petejh]

Don't know if anyone's watching the live feed.. It's pretty amazing. I hadn't grasped the scale of the US's plans to use commercial delivery (rather than NASA delivery) of payloads to the moon for a miniscule cost compared to previous missions; prior to sending humans there in 2026 - it's suggested to stay to begin building a base. Tonight's is the first commercial payload of many to lay down the resources ready for when humans arrive 2 years from now. Lots of talk on the live feed of 'the lunar economy' and the commercial-NASA joint enterprise.

Pretty amazing to watch something as historic as this live on my laptop. Bigger than a live stream of Burden of Dreams... I'm getting the impression this has makings of an inflection point for markets similar to how AI put a rocket up the market last year and continues to. Feels the magnitude of the project about to commence to resource the moon over the next 2 years has flown under the radar a bit.

On Intuitive Machines - I saw a Bloomberg terminal view with estimate of $400m in revenue within the next 4 years. 10x earnings giving a $4bn valuation as reasonable ballpark. Currently valued around $1bn (this wildly fluctuating by the hour!). They're contracted by NASA to deliver further payloads, a $118m contract.

Live feed here, landing 11.25pm: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dg2ffigGcYM

 

[mr chaz]

Dramatic but successful landing!

 

[Dingdong]

Don't know if anyone's watching the live feed.. It's pretty amazing. I hadn't grasped the scale of the US's plans to use commercial delivery (rather than NASA delivery) of payloads to the moon for a miniscule cost compared to previous missions; prior to sending humans there in 2026 - it's suggested to stay to begin building a base. Tonight's is the first commercial payload of many to lay down the resources ready for when humans arrive 2 years from now. Lots of talk on the live feed of 'the lunar economy' and the commercial-NASA joint enterprise.

Pretty amazing to watch something as historic as this live on my laptop. Bigger than a live stream of Burden of Dreams... I'm getting the impression this has makings of an inflection point for markets similar to how AI put a rocket up the market last year and continues to. Feels the magnitude of the project about to commence to resource the moon over the next 2 years has flown under the radar a bit.

On Intuitive Machines - I saw a Bloomberg terminal view with estimate of $400m in revenue within the next 4 years. 10x earnings giving a $4bn valuation as reasonable ballpark. Currently valued around $1bn (this wildly fluctuating by the hour!). They're contracted by NASA to deliver further payloads, a $118m contract.

Live feed here, landing 11.25pm: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dg2ffigGcYM

Glassdoor reviews also show a great work culture and helps the CEO is the ex director of JSC meaning they’re receiving lots of contracts from NASA and have great links to them. Funnily enough the landing lasers failed and the instrumentation sent up by NASA was used to assist in the landing