[galpinos]

I am happy to be disappointed but I am resolutely not getting my hopes up.

I'm hoping for the best but fearing the worst.......

[andy popp]

Who'd have thought it would be possible to look back on Cameron and think "good times"?

Amazingly, the same can genuinely be said of Dubya

[jwi]

Who'd have thought it would be possible to look back on Cameron and think "good times"?

Amazingly, the same can genuinely be said of Dubya

Unless you're from the Middle East I suppose.

[tommytwotone]

Some interesting observations from a mate regarding a constituency-by-constituency chances of success, and the odds available out there. Looks like there's a bit of value if anyone fancies a punt.

Link here - sure Slackbot will be along with a view on it!

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

They've got:

• Gower - Labour win 54% vs 2/1 available
• Edinburgh West - Tory win 44% chance vs 10/1 available
• Fife North East - Tory win 51% chance vs 14/1 available

And nai - you can get around 7/5 on Labour ousting Nick Clegg.

[dave]

Interesting that, gives my seat as a potential Lab win.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Sheffield+Hallam

I was assuming it would be a fairly safe LibDem (Cleggy) done deal. Therefore standard tactical voting protocol would have dictated that I vote LibDem, but I suppose since the Tories have no chance here that I should actually vote Lab this time with no real risk.

[andy popp]

Who'd have thought it would be possible to look back on Cameron and think "good times"?

Amazingly, the same can genuinely be said of Dubya

Unless you're from the Middle East I suppose.

Well, there is that ...

[andy popp]

Confession: for the first time in my life I won't be voting in a general election. Its not that I don't care or that I don't think the stakes are very high - they clearly are, as high as at any election in my adult life. In part, I simply failed to get my overseas vote arranged in time. But that I didn't get it together probably says something. Labour won the constituency in which I'm registered to vote (Halton) in 2015 with a majority of nearly 20,300. There was a 5+% swing to Labour. It is unimaginable that Labour won't win this seat. Given the disincentives I'm almost surprised any Tory voters bother to turn out. At the same time, I strongly disapprove of elements of the sitting Labour MP's voting record (for example, he voted against marriage equality). I voted Green in 2015 but they aren't fielding a candidate this year. The Lib Dems are irrelevant.

I am very far from proud that I won't be voting, and I am rightly catching hell from my 19 year old daughter who will be voting in her first general election (she was able to vote in the referendum), but there must be many, many voters such as me who are utterly powerless to influence the outcome at either the local or national level. Its hardly news, but the system is broken.

I desperately hope for a Labour victory on Thursday (hypocritical, I know) but am pessimistic.

[i.munro]

Sort of grudging respect to the guy I saw on my way to work today walking down the street wearing a big blue rosette and loftily ignoring the swearing, spitting and gesticulating. V. brave or V.stupid.

[tommytwotone]

While out for a walk with the family on Monday I happened on our Tory candidate, Ann Myatt handing out propaganda.


This is the Ann Myatt responsible for this - in Jo Cox's constituency:


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-2017-ann-myatt-jo-cox-batley-spen-nobodys-been-shot-yet-joke-hustings-conservatives-tories-a7761981.html


When I heard about this I was totally shocked. I was going to say something to her on Sunday but really couldn't think what to say about it.

[lagerstarfish]

Interesting that, gives my seat as a potential Lab win.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Sheffield+Hallam

I was assuming it would be a fairly safe LibDem (Cleggy) done deal. Therefore standard tactical voting protocol would have dictated that I vote LibDem, but I suppose since the Tories have no chance here that I should actually vote Lab this time with no real risk.

be nice to see that last bit of non-Labour South Yorkshire coloured red

[Duma]

I rather like this page

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/#/uk-elections-constituency-search-anchor

yougov are one of the pollsters who seem to believe in the young turning out though...

[Johnny Brown]

Interesting that, gives my seat as a potential Lab win.
I was assuming it would be a fairly safe LibDem (Cleggy) done deal. Therefore standard tactical voting protocol would have dictated that I vote LibDem, but I suppose since the Tories have no chance here that I should actually vote Lab this time with no real risk.

I will definitely not be voting Labour in Sheffield Hallam. Nationally, Labour cannot win outright unless there is some miracle turnaround in Scotland. Therefore the best we can hope for is a rainbow coalition of the left. I can't think of another MP who will bring more valuable recent experience to that coalition than Clegg.

I was planning to vote Green but am a bit conflicted due to this. I don't think another inexperienced Labour MP would have much to offer in comparison, and locally the Labour council (as witnessed by the Amey Tree 'care' contract) is verging on the rotten.

Edit:

be nice to see that last bit of non-Labour South Yorkshire coloured red

As above, no thanks. Not being a rabid FPTP supporter I'd like to see as much diversity represented as possible. Ideally Sheff Central might go Green too.

[i.munro]

Depending on Clegg for a rainbow coalition - hmm what could possibly go wrong there.

[i.munro]

More seriously both Lab & the LDs have stated  that there won't be any rainbow coalition & Corbyn, for better or worse, simply doesn't seem able to lie.

[Johnny Brown]

Clearly this is complete bollocks. If the Tories are a few short the DUP might help them struggle on, but no one else will touch them in a coalition.

[i.munro]

Clearly this is complete bollocks. If the Tories are a few short the DUP might help them struggle on, but no one else will touch them in a coalition.

Let's hope that
a) they are a few short
and
b) you're correct

[dave]

Interesting that, gives my seat as a potential Lab win.
I was assuming it would be a fairly safe LibDem (Cleggy) done deal. Therefore standard tactical voting protocol would have dictated that I vote LibDem, but I suppose since the Tories have no chance here that I should actually vote Lab this time with no real risk.

I will definitely not be voting Labour in Sheffield Hallam. Nationally, Labour cannot win outright unless there is some miracle turnaround in Scotland. Therefore the best we can hope for is a rainbow coalition of the left. I can't think of another MP who will bring more valuable recent experience to that coalition than Clegg.

I was planning to vote Green but am a bit conflicted due to this. I don't think another inexperienced Labour MP would have much to offer in comparison, and locally the Labour council (as witnessed by the Amey Tree 'care' contract) is verging on the rotten.

Yeah this is my issue too, on a non-partisan level I have no problem being represented by Clegg. He's one of the few talking sense on Europe, and is very experienced.

Although various parties have said they won't go into coalitions, surely what's more likely is one party sits as a minority gov and then policies get passed on a case-by-case basis, based on loose agreements. You know, like plenty of other countries do. In many ways this could be the best possible outcome, since it might break the two-party system down for good.

[Johnny Brown]

Agree it would be nice but there doesn't seem to be much precedent for that in the UK, and the the press would go apeshit, "We need Strong and stable, strong and stable!!!".

PR would of course remove our issues of being unsure whether to vote for who we want to vote for, so I'm tempted to vote whichever way makes that more likely. Which is Clegg again.

[i.munro]

That does seem to be the most likely result.
Worryingly that could possibly mean a minority Tory govt which I  fear Labour might support on Brexit issues.
The rest of it's policies - (basically austerity) remain largely unchanged from those of the coalition.
I'm fairly certain that Lab, Plaid the SNP, Greens will oppose that. I'm much less certain about the Lib-Dems.

[Johnny Brown]

After the last two years the Lib Dems won't touch them with a barge pole. And that's before you consider Brexit.

[i.munro]

After the last two years the Lib Dems won't touch them with a barge pole. And that's before you consider Brexit.

Again I hope that you're right but bear in mind Farron or whoever would have to answer questions , from a hostile media like
"Mr Farron only a year ago you and your party fully supported xxx saying it was the best thing for the country - how do you now justify using a 3-line whip to force yor MPs to oppose exactly the same policy? Either you were wrong then or you're wrong now. Which is it? "
it wouldn't look good would it.?

[Johnny Brown]

I think it'll be the SNP that gets that scrutiny. LDs will be a minor player. Or it will be easy enough for them to say 'we were forced into it by the tories'.

[i.munro]

LDs will be a minor player.

That would be the point for me. Athough their Brexit policy is slightly less nonsensical than most they won't be big enough to oppose this if Lab back it & a few MPs more or less won't change that.

So there seems little point taking the risk,however small you judge it of them propping up the Tories again.
Judging by the polling figures I may not be alone in reaching that conclusion.

BTW this is a horrible way to have to decide how to vote - which party is likely to result in the least damage but that's where we seem to be. in my area I seem to have no option but to vote for a party whose policy on the most important issue of the day is simply dribbling nonsense.

[Johnny Brown]

The risk of them propping up the tories is nil. It was a disaster last time and the LDs flagship stance on Brexit is utterly at odds with the Tories direction since.

A strong LD, SDP and Green component to a left coalition will ensure a second referendum on any Brexit deal.

It does look more likely the Cons will win a slim overall majority though.

[i.munro]

The risk of them propping up the tories is nil. It was a disaster last time and the LDs flagship stance on Brexit is utterly at odds with their direction since.

A strong LD, SDP and Green component to a left coalition will ensure a second referendum on any deal.

It does look more likely the Cons will win a slim overall majority though.