[mrjonathanr]

I'm actually much more worried about France than Britain.

Rightly so. She will show her true colours if she holds office. Freedom, equality and fraternity will be under threat. It's easier to see the EU surviving without Britain than France, but both...

[jwi]

Le Pen stands almost no chance winning office. It's a small worry for us, since we'd have to leave France and move our savings to another EU country before she'd confiscate them (us being foreigners and all)—but frankly, Mélenchon is almost as bad.

However, I'm a bit pissed off with the anglophone media for implying that a Le Pen election in the second round is quite likely to happen. Of course, anything can happen, a meteor might hit the earth etc. But without some really solid analysis to explain away her abysmal performance in polls [historically speaking French polls have been really fucking awesome], especially against Macron, anyone who's claiming that Le Pen is likely to win is disseminating propaganda.

PS. The euro will collapse tomorrow ... the day after tomorrow ... the next week ... soon goddammit ... at some point in the future ...

[mrjonathanr]

I thought she and Macron were polling about the same with Le Pen on 23ish and Macron on about 24? Of corse if the anti- fascist vote goes squarely to Macron in round 2 it's a safe outcome but I still find current polls a concern:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-poll-idUKKBN17J18X

[jwi]

(Sorry for being unclear, I meant that Le Pen is very unlikely to win a 2nd round. And it is not even sure that she'll get to the 2nd round. Watch Fillon surge.)

Yes, Marine could well go to 2nd round, but she'd get totally and absolutely crushed by Macron in a 2nd round. And totally crushed by Fillon as well (unless the daft socialist bobos show their true fascist face and abstain).

A Mélenchon - Le Pen is harder to predict but not very likely at this time.

This is the only link needed for following the polls:
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l%27%C3%A9lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_fran%C3%A7aise_de_2017

[TobyD]

(Sorry for being unclear, I meant that Le Pen is very unlikely to win a 2nd round. And it is not even sure that she'll get to the 2nd round. Watch Fillon surge.)

Yes, Marine could well go to 2nd round, but she'd get totally and absolutely crushed by Macron in a 2nd round. And totally crushed by Fillon as well (unless the daft socialist bobos show their true fascist face and abstain).

A Mélenchon - Le Pen is harder to predict but not very likely at this time.

This is the only link needed for following the polls:
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l%27%C3%A9lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_fran%C3%A7aise_de_2017

It'll be interesting to see how the tragedy of the shooting in Paris affects the poll. Le Pen seems to be making a thinly veiled attempt to exploit it, will everyone see through this? Sadly I suspect it'll be the same as the USA situation where Trump supporters backed him irrespective of any crimes, incompetence, ignorance, nepotism... And his critics remained just as entrenched.

[jwi]

Oh Fillon as well... ( https://twitter.com/ellensalvi/status/855380946991947777 ) Meanwhile the French twitter-sphere is buzzing with rumours that the police shooting is a Soviet Russian provocation. (The perp is a common criminal with no ties to sunni fascism, ISIS statement was weird and named wrong perp, etc etc.). I don't think it will move the polls that much, compared to Nice/Paris-shooting1/Paris-shooting2 it was kind of pathetic, the police and the military clearly did their job competently etc.

[Oldmanmatt]

Much like the German one?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borussia_Dortmund_team_bus_bombing

Anyway, I know who I'm voting for. She's ace!

[jwi]

I'd vote for anyone bringing back the ... guillotine? Quoi? 

[mrjonathanr]

Illuminating she thinks Nicola Sturgeon may bring about  WWIII. Presumably withdrawing from Europe will make it all stable again.

Interesting that classes should all stay in the same room and not move around too. How will that work at secondary school? Art in the science lab? Dress-making in the fume cupboard? The cross curricular opportunities are endless.

I wonder what the tariffs on the guilllotines might be?

[Oldmanmatt]

Illuminating she thinks Nicola Sturgeon may bring about  WWIII. Presumably withdrawing from Europe will make it all stable again.

Interesting that classes should all stay in the same room and not move around too. How will that work at secondary school? Art in the science lab? Dress-making in the fume cupboard? The cross curricular opportunities are endless.

I wonder what the tariffs on the guilllotines might be?

Read that as cross dressing in the fume cupboard...


Not sure she'd approve.




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[Oldmanmatt]

Anyone know if this is "true" (the change part)?


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[monkoffunk]

Think they can try form minority government, I'll check.

[monkoffunk]

On the other point:

"Incorrect, charges would have no impact on their ability to sit in the house. That would only change if they received a sentence of over 12 months custodial. Which would take 18 months to happen and is incredibly unlikely."

[Will Hunt]

Much like the German one?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borussia_Dortmund_team_bus_bombing

Anyway, I know who I'm voting for. She's ace!

Is that real? It's got fake news written all over it.

[Oldmanmatt]

Much like the German one?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borussia_Dortmund_team_bus_bombing

Anyway, I know who I'm voting for. She's ace!

Is that real? It's got fake news written all over it.

I'm fairly sure the German attack was intended as a stock market manipulation, or at least the German authorities think so.

The other? Well, it's been picked up by mainstream, if that's any guide:
https://www.indy100.com/article/article-ukip-candidate-gisela-allen-glasgow-7696526

[monkoffunk]

Further to early point on MPS being imprisoned:

"That would be true in the event of a dearth of MPs but there'd be by-elections for them anyway."

[Oldmanmatt]

Much like the German one?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borussia_Dortmund_team_bus_bombing

Anyway, I know who I'm voting for. She's ace!

Is that real? It's got fake news written all over it.

Starting to stray off topic a bit now, but another false flag op in Krautland.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/german-soldier-syria-refugee-false-flag-terror-attack-posing-arrested-frankfurt-france-bavaria-a7705231.html?cmpid=facebook-post

I've little doubt, though, that much of the swing to the right in this country is connected to terrorism across Europe and not just within the UK; so this has an effect on people's mind set here.

[Oldmanmatt]

Can the Leopard change his shorts?

Not sure, but he can definitely soil them...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/george-osborne-evening-standard-editor-theresa-may-first-day-attack-election-campaign-slogan-a7713501.html?cmpid=facebook-post

[tomtom]

I had a visit from my labour canvassers this evening. I like my local labour MP - I think she's great. The canvasser was actually my local councillor as well.

However, she couldn't answer why I should vote Labour when they are backing brexit and I am a strident remain voter - and also couldn't answer why I should vote for a party who's leader I thought was ineffective and weak... She just repeated 'we need to get the Tories out' - 'what will five more years of them do?' etc..

At the time I thought that was pretty weak (though she can't answer the labour conflict over brexit - as there isn't an answer) - but on reflection, get the Tories out is about all there is in Labours armoury really. That made me feel quite sad..

[petejh]

Well the manifesto's aren't out yet..

But I don't think it matters too much what's in the Labour Party's manifesto when it portrays itself as a shower of bewildered shit - an image Dianne Abbott helped to reinforce today..

[jfdm]

Well the manifesto's aren't out yet..

But I don't think it matters too much what's in the Labour Party's manifesto when it portrays itself as a shower of bewildered shit - an image Dianne Abbott helped to reinforce today..

Pete you are spoilt for choice over pro Brexit parties in this election, cons, lab, ukip, BNP, the choice is yours.

Diane "the big mouth" Abbott aka rent a gob. What a dick, Cobyn needs to get Malcom Tucker onto Diane, pronto. Just when things need to be slick and whiter than white, Diana pops up. At least she was trying to answer the questions, but not very well granted.

Unlike May's blathering on Marr on Sunday's show, no answers to any questions about NHS, education, Brexit, food banks, this is the Primeminister of the "strong yet stable" flavour. Any answers to be found in the manifesto, errr right o. Just remember she voted to go to war in Iraq, Jezzer against, so maybe he has better judgment. May can't even eat chips without grimacing for christs sake.

Just read this
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/02/beneath-diane-abbott-police-funding-gaffes-labour-numbers-make-sense
Seems as though lab policies might be actually costed and make some sense.

Tomtom, Cobyn politically naive, should not have caved in over Brexit so readily, also danced to Mays tune over early election, could have forced Cons into no confidence vote. But I think he comes across far better than the other candidates in person, seems balanced and fair, seems to be doing a good job on the campaign trail, policies seem good ones apart from Brexit. The lab canvassers are right, anything but Tory, will do for now.

Leaning towards Lab, even though I don't agree with Brexit stance. Still think Brexit not a done deal yet. U turns aplenty I am sure over this issue.

[abarro81]

I don't get why the Diane Abbott thing is such such a big deal. People get flustered sometimes, doesn't seem to me like the huge issue the news is making It out to be..

[dave]

You would almost think that the mainstream media, a huge proportion of which is owned by half a dozen righting billionaires, is biased against Labour.

[Oldmanmatt]

I don't get why the Diane Abbott thing is such such a big deal. People get flustered sometimes, doesn't seem to me like the huge issue the news is making It out to be..

This is because you are not in the pocket of the Tory backers and puppeteers...

Unlike the media.

Still can't imagine voting Lab.

Repeat after me:
"Strong and Stable!"


We're fucked, aren't we?

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[Falling Down]

That was a car crash from Abbot though.  She's the shadow home sec. announcing a big policy and it was clear that she didn't know the numbers.  Even if she hadn't been asked the question it should have been a "We will invest 300mill in 10,000 fresh coppers and will pay for it by closing down tax loopholes/insisting British trading businesses trade in Britain/blah-blah"... basic stuff.