[Rocksteady]

What about the Sunni Shia Saudi Iran situation? Where Syria - as Yemen - is in many ways a proxy warzone... Somehow got to get those two opposing and rich/powerful parties to play ball

Have to get them round the table regarding the UN peacekeeping effort I guess. Also part of the dialogue needed by Islamic religious leaders.

It's a thousand year mess - but we can't afford to take a thousand years sorting it out 

[mrjonathanr]

1. Beat Daesh militarily on the ground. They want to fight everywhere and clearly will. Give them their apocalypse. They will lose a lot of their apparent credibility if they get a good old-fashioned whupping. This is what US is good at eg. first Gulf War and General Schwartzkopf's 'left hook' strategy in Desert Storm.

Well military intervention has worked well in the Middle East so far, like it did in Korea and Vietnam.

I appreciate that they might lose credibility in your eyes. That isn't the issue.  Would they in the eyes of those they are trying to recruit?

[Rocksteady]

1. Beat Daesh militarily on the ground. They want to fight everywhere and clearly will. Give them their apocalypse. They will lose a lot of their apparent credibility if they get a good old-fashioned whupping. This is what US is good at eg. first Gulf War and General Schwartzkopf's 'left hook' strategy in Desert Storm.

Well military intervention has worked well in the Middle East so far, like it did in Korea and Vietnam.

I appreciate that they might lose credibility in your eyes. That isn't the issue.  Would they in the eyes of those they are trying to recruit?

In my view yes, that's the point. They have declared a caliphate and its legitimacy is based on territory and military success. It is a clarion call to 'fundamentalists' around the world to join in its jihadist ideology. They are following a prophecy where they want to fight 'the armies of Rome' in Dabiq.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

On the face of it they aren't fighting an insurgency or guerrilla war, they are fighting a war of conquest. If you stop the conquest, you take away the legitimacy of the caliphate and its apocalyptic vision.

I think the 'West' are actually pretty good at winning a tactical war. What they failed at in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq was the strategic vision for peace. That's when you need a massive, long-term UN and regional-stakeholder peacekeeping force in tandem with aid and investment. Like the Marshall Plan - which worked. 

[Oldmanmatt]

On the Islamic nature of IS.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/qasim-rashid/calling-isis-unislamic-is_b_6730702.html

It is hard to see how they might be stopped without military action, there seems little avenue for diplomacy or negotiations.

Their financial backers might be for sale, however, in their little Kingdoms...


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[Durbs]

Educated progressive Shias and Sunnis get along fine.

I think this part is key. Education ("Enlightenment"?) is a fundamental key to this, and likely why these groups are generally opposed to education - Boko Harem apparently translates as "Western education is forbidden". Whilst they argue this on grounds of being the words of heretics, much as the Catholic church were against education, if you can raise general education standards, recruiting and support takes a dive.

It's no coincidence ISIS and other groups have been targeting schools & universities.

In this sense, any bombing campaign UN/NATO launch is a risk as you want to ensure education continues as the key to this fight is removing the grassroots support.
Note, I'm not linking education to atheism. I'm linking lack of education to prime-recruiting grounds, both on moralistic grounds and soldiering.

[slackline]

No disagreement, but...

It's no coincidence ISIS and other groups have been targeting schools & universities.
...
I'm linking lack of education to prime-recruiting grounds, both on moralistic grounds and soldiering.

If you're looking for people who lack education then schools and universities are not the first place I'd start with.

[Oldmanmatt]

The profile of those terrorists so far known to be ISIS, all seem to be above average in educational terms.
The Grunts of all the various groups are likely to be aversge to below, but this is more akin to the Infantry/SF split in any military structure (we have an unusually highly educated military in the UK, compared to many nations (and fuck but it shows on operations)).


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[johnx2]

"Educated" here correlates with "liberal/enlightened", but it's obviously not a 100% correlation.

(Based on a year in Turkey ages ago, mainly knowing university folk. A few religious nutters serious types, most just normal, albeit culturally observant, doing Ramadan etc.

Anyway, basically a +1 post for Harbrich's.

[slackline]

The Conversation : The Syrian War in one short easy read

[Oldmanmatt]

The Conversation : The Syrian War in one short easy read

Or, as came across my FB feed today, this...
(Not representative of my opinion).

"For anyone who may be confused by what's going on in Syria and the wider Middle East......

President Assad (who is bad) is a nasty guy who got so nasty his people rebelled and the Rebels (who are good) started winning (Hurrah!). But then some of the rebels turned a bit nasty and are now called Islamic State ( who are definitely bad!) and some continued to support democracy (who are still good.)
So the Americans (who are good) started bombing Islamic State (who are bad) and giving arms to the Syrian Rebels (who are good) so they could fight Assad (who is still bad) which was good.

By the way, there is a breakaway state in the north run by the Kurds who want to fight IS ( which is a good thing ) but the Turkish authorities think they are bad, so we have to say they are bad whilst secretly thinking they're good and giving them guns to fight IS (which is good) but that is another matter.

Getting back to Syria.

So President Putin ( who is bad, cos he invaded Crimea and the Ukraine and killed lots of folks including that nice Russian man in London with polonium poisoned sushi ) has decided to back Assad (who is still bad) by attacking IS (who are also bad) which is sort of a good thing?
But Putin ( still bad ) thinks the Syrian Rebels (who are good) are also bad, and so he bombs them too, much to the annoyance of the Americans (who are good) who are busy backing and arming the rebels (who are also good).
Now Iran (who used to be bad, but now they have agreed not to build any nuclear weapons and bomb Israel are now good) are going to provide ground troops to support Assad (still bad) as are the Russians (bad) who now have ground troops and aircraft in Syria.

So a Coalition of Assad (still bad) Putin (extra bad) and the Iranians (good, but in a bad sort of way) are going to attack IS (who are bad) which is a good thing, but also the Syrian Rebels (who are good) which is bad.

Now the British (obviously good, except some freak called Corbyn who, incidentally wears a corduroy jacket, which is dead give away as that's never good) and the Americans (also good) cannot attack Assad (still bad) for fear of upsetting Putin (bad) and Iran (good / bad) and now they have to accept that Assad might not be that bad after all compared to IS (who are super bad).

So Assad (bad) is now probably good, being better than IS (but let’s face it, drinking your own wee is better than IS so no real choice there) and since Putin and Iran are also fighting IS that may now make them Good. America (still Good) will find it hard to arm a group of rebels being attacked by the Russians for fear of upsetting Mr Putin (now good) and that nice mad Ayatollah in Iran (also Good) and so they may be forced to say that the Rebels are now Bad, or at the very least abandon them to their fate. This will lead most of them to flee to Turkey and on to Europe or join IS (still the only constantly bad group).
To Sunni Muslims, an attack by Shia Muslims (Assad and Iran) backed by Russians will be seen as something of a Holy War, and the ranks of IS will now be seen by the Sunnis as the only Jihadis fighting in the Holy War and hence many Muslims will now see IS as Good (Doh!)

Sunni Muslims will also see the lack of action by Britain and America in support of their Sunni rebel brothers as something of a betrayal (mmmm... might have a point) and hence we will be seen as Bad.

So now we have America (now bad) and Britain (also bad) providing limited support to Sunni Rebels (bad) many of whom are looking to IS (Good / bad) for support against Assad (now good) who, along with Iran (also Good) and Putin (also, now, unbelievably, Good) are attempting to retake the country Assad used to run before all this started?

I hope this makes things a little clearer."


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[fried]

You forgot to mention that Assad in fact funded IS to make himself look good.

[dave]

Massive elephant in the room is still Saudi thought innit? Who Dave is best buds with?

[Nigel]

Massive elephant in the room is still Saudi thought innit? Who Dave is best buds with?

Surely Israel must be regarded as some kind of large grey mammal in the room too? I mean they border Syria, with whom they are still technically at war over the Golan Heights, and historically they are not bessie mates with the surrounding majority Muslim countries, to put it very mildly (!). You would expect they would have some kind of opinion, if for no other reason than their sheer proximity to the all-out war next door. Especially given their hatred of all things Iran / Hezbollah (= Assad). But also all things Islamist (which they would equate to Hamas, plus all the Palestinian fugees in Syria). I suspect the US have told them to stay out of it to prevent things really kicking off but I doubt they're just watching impassively from the touchlines. Well, with one foot on the pitch really! The whole thing is clear as mud.

[dave]

Perhaps a large grey mammal, but not one that's potentially funding Team Rubber Dinghy Rapids. Maybe a rhino or hippo? Or do we go wildcard with dolphin, narwhal, seal?

[petejh]

Israel has nuclear weapons so they get a by into the fourth round (of the madness cup, sponsored by Barclays).


Where do the lizards fit into all this? 

[Nigel]

Perhaps a large grey mammal, but not one that's potentially funding Team Rubber Dinghy Rapids. Maybe a rhino or hippo? Or do we go wildcard with dolphin, narwhal, seal?

Walrus? Maybe not grey enough.

[tomtom]

Hippo Hippo Hippo!

[dave]

Yeah think walrusses (walri?) are more of a brown. But then again so are many elephants.

Lizards are out of the equation unless David Icke is parachuted into the levant to solve the crisis.

[tomtom]

Lizards are out of the equation unless David Icke is parachuted into the levant to solve the crisis.

I think a fitting method for implanting David Icke in the Levant would be astride a cruise missile...

[petejh]

Back of the net!

[Oldmanmatt]

Lizards are out of the equation unless David Icke is parachuted into the levant to solve the crisis.

I think a fitting method for implanting David Icke in the Levant would be astride a cruise missile...

Dr David "Strangelove" Icke.


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[tomtom]

Lizards are out of the equation unless David Icke is parachuted into the levant to solve the crisis.

I think a fitting method for implanting David Icke in the Levant would be astride a cruise missile...

Dr David "Strangelove" Icke.


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I nearly posted a picture from that film - but rather hoped someone would join the dots

https://youtu.be/JlSQAZEp3PA?t=31s

[Oldmanmatt]

How far could this actually go?
Could the right rise again?
It seems these days of ours bear uncanny parallels to the '30s.

http://www.rawstory.com/2015/11/trump-crosses-the-nazi-line-maybe-muslims-should-wear-special-id-badges/

http://magazine.good.is/articles/takei-teaches-history?utm_source=TSE&utm_medium=FB&utm_campaign=pd&utm_content=inf_11_81_2&tse_id=INF_c39432ee4e9e4887bd1099e5155ff925

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[slackline]

Sadly British PM's have had to suck up to the Saudis for decades.

Who else would UK companies sell arms to? 

[lagerstarfish]

David Icke isn't getting sucked into the Paris thing - I'm not sure he even believes that Paris exists