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The Eurozone, running out of time (Read 1064 times)

Sloper

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The Eurozone, running out of time
June 03, 2014, 08:44:07 pm
Non being a tin hat wearing alarmist / nutter, I do however think that there's an interesting confluence of economics (stagnating growth, inflation at risk of reaching -ve, unemployment in many area being stubbornly resistant to reduction (other than by emigration) and politics with the number of sceptics in the EU parliament.

I'm not forecasting the end of the EU or the Euro but the next crisis (probably late July / August) will be bloody interesting.

I'm also holding off buying Euro at the moment as I wouldn't be uprised to see the £/Euro rate to head north of 1.30 by late June.

ghisino

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#1 Re: The Eurozone, running out of time
June 04, 2014, 10:49:02 am
as a mid-class southern european, i hope it will end asap.

the euro as it is,  forces "latin" countries to dismantle their extensive welfare systems and their unflexible labour markets, and conform to the german/anglo-saxon orthodoxy.

The mix of a "totally indepentent" central bank whose constitutional objective is to keep the inflation rates low and strict budget rules leaves no other option, especially when those countries have an "intrinsic" inflation rate that's higher than the fixed euro standard.

As we (italians, french, etc) cannot fix it a-posteriori anymore (by periodic money devaluation) we are forced to fix it by reducing labour cost.

now, labour cost is effectively reduced by...unemployement and social insecurity.


but as an italian living in france, i am moderately optimist: i trust the instincts of a nation who has cut off their king's head (and then, the heads of those who cut the king's head).
Recent FN uprising may be a clue (and no, they did not vote front national because the French suddely became racist and fascists...but rather because under the current circumstances, that's the only party who can credibly speak in defense of the traditional  social compromise, something which sadly the extreme left can't do as several leftist myths and habits get in the way...internationalism, the equation nation=nationalism, the idea that history can only go forward and we can't look back, and the focus on minorities as a way to hide their abandon of working-class majority)

 

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