UKBouldering.com
places to visit => conditions reports (isitgreasy on twitter) => Topic started by: nai on January 12, 2020, 12:10:02 pm
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is there any weather forecasting service out there which simply tells you when it hasn't got a clue what's going to happen? Forecasting the peak in particular seems to be beyond the wit of man
Just use all the resources you can, find forecasts that use different data models, cross reference them*
Definitely try Metoffice who are local forecasters for local people.
And they do a specialist forecast
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/mountain/peak-district#?date=2020-01-12
So do MWIS, although it uses metofice data
https://www.mwis.org.uk/english-welsh-forecast/PD/
Use wunderground weather stations for local conditions, dew point etc although some of them have their intricacies (badly positioned?) that you have to learn to ignore.
https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?isPresentationActive=0&renderer=2&Units=metric&zoom=8&lat=53.32&lon=-1.54&wxstn=1&wxstnmode=tw&aq=0&aqvalue=NaN&radar=0&radarType=NaN&radaropa=0.7&satellite=0&satelliteopa=0.8&insertHurricaneNameHere=false&goes16opa=&storm-cells=1&severe=0&severeopa=0.9&sst=0&sstopa=0.8&sstanom=0&sstanomopa=0.8&cam=0&fronts=0&hur=0&models=0&modelsmodel=ecmwf&modelsopa=0.8&modelstype=SURPRE&lightning=0&fire=0&fireopa=0.9&fireRisk=0&fireRiskOpacity=0.9&firePerimeter=0&firePerimeterOpacity=0.9&smoke=0&smokeOpacity=0.9&rep=0&surge=0&tor=0&windstr=0&windstrDensity=undefined&windstreamSpeed=undefined&windstreamSpeedFilter=undefined&windstreamPalette=undefined
webcams seem to be in decline for much of the peak but the west still well served and motorway cameras are good for eastern (not strictly peak) lime
Good collection of data, cams, current connies, etc at Buxton Weather
https://buxtonweather.co.uk/
* success still not guaranteed, sorry
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I work in the peak district and the met office app is usually pretty accurate. I can confirm it'd probably be pretty crap today, anywhere near Bakewell anyway.
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is there any weather forecasting service out there which simply tells you when it hasn't got a clue what's going to happen? Forecasting the peak in particular seems to be beyond the wit of man
Loads of info
Just to offer a different perspective; this seems like far too much trouble to me. Surely if you have to go into that much detail it's probably not going to be a good day?
I only ever use Met Office, it's always pretty accurate.
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Got an hour in at Froggatt on Sunday, decent nick, sadly rained off. An optimistic couple doing trad got a few routes in too.
On a separate note, which probably belongs in a separate thread, is there any weather forecasting service out there which simply tells you when it hasn't got a clue what's going to happen? Forecasting the peak in particular seems to be beyond the wit of man, and it's fundamentally fucking flat! All the forecasts I've used the last few weeks have been as accurate as a daily mail horoscope. *rant over
The trick is to understand the overall picture (met office twice daily videos are good) so that you can understand which bits are predictable and which prone to variation. Generally the 24 hr forecast now is impressively accurate, but a twenty mile variation in the development or position of the system can mean the emojis forecasting scorchio when actually you get pissing rain.
So in advance I use the location emojis, but on the day itself I rely much more on comparing the live radar data with the most recent broad forecast. Combine that with a bit of local knowledge and you get a better idea of when they'll be wrong.
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I'd second all of that. Local knowledge includes rain shadow effects (which depend on wind direction) or faces that will stay dry longer if the weather is due to break gently, plus effects of tree cover. Some lines can stay dry for hours in light rain from a particular direction. The animated radar (esp the raintoday mobile ap) is amazing for predicting almost exactly when a rain band will hit.
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Some areas are a lot easier than others. For example I can predict the connies at Caley at any time throughout the year with a 97% success rate...
it will be shit.
Pretty easy really :smartass:
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I only ever use Met Office, it's always pretty accurate.
Me too. The smartphone app is really good, you can save a seemingly unlimited number of locations on the home screen of it and just by scrolling down that I find I can get a mental picture of what the weather’s doing on both a macro and micro scale as the locations can be very specific and even within a small area they all get subtly different forecasts.
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Sounds like a change of app is in order. Thanks for the info all.
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Actually, playing with it again I oversold it a bit- you can get the macro level by scrolling down the main screen- to get the micro level (eg which bits of the Peak will get the rain at which times) you need to go into each location. It’s not a hassle though.
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If you go into settings you can change it to show the hourly forecast on the app's home screen.