UKBouldering.com
the shizzle => shootin' the shit => Topic started by: slab_happy on July 17, 2021, 11:46:10 am
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Let's try this.
I have a headful of info and excellent medical search skills; I have even been in a vaccine trial; if anyone's got worries or feel they need to know more, I'm happy to talk (and sure others are too), and I promise to keep a lid on my sarcastic tendencies.
If you've got worries about particular side-effects or things you've heard about or whether there's enough data or what studies show -- please ask, I may be able to supply the info you're looking for!
And if you're in favour of vaccines in principle, but just haven't got round to getting yours yet, or aren't sure you need it -- please let me make the case for why you should get it a.s.a.p..
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I have a friend (who has *just* about stayed a friend despite this) who despite being mature and well-educated, is a proper frothing-at-the-eyeballs anti-masker anti-vaxxer plandemic scamdemic great-reset covid-denying conspiracy loon (which in a rare moment of sympathy I have attributed to it simply being her distraught emotional reaction / psychological damage due to the trauma of the pandemic and all the various government dictates to deal with it - everyone has been affected and reacted in different ways).
She won't get the vaccine (despite being equally vehemently opposed to the lockdowns.....which the vaccines are clearly a method to avoid) because she has "seen documents and evidence" (said in an ominous "I can't say any more" voice). Would you like me to put her in touch?? I'd love to see a transcript of the discussions ;D ::)
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Ha, I am probably not best suited to engage with that; I know the limits to my communications skill-set ... Also I suspect someone who's got their mind that firmly made up is not open to having someone else try to change it.
But maybe someone else is equipped?
On the other hand, I am a massive nerd who is incapable of having any medical treatment without feeling I've educated myself about it beforehand.
So people who feel like they need more info, or that they don't know how to sort through conflicting claims they've heard -- okay, that I can understand and respect, and maybe help with! Because fair enough!
Iwhich in a rare moment of sympathy I have attributed to it simply being her distraught emotional reaction / psychological damage due to the trauma of the pandemic and all the various government dictates to deal with it - everyone has been affected and reacted in different ways).
Yeah, I've found it helpful in various ways to remind myself that we're all going through a traumatic event (one which meets the official criteria psychologists use when diagnosing PTSD), so it's not surprising if we're all a bit more fucked up in the head and less rational than usual. Speaking as someone who was quite fucked up in the head to begin with.
And this is a scary scary time and we've all had to cope with a lot of changes and a huge amount of uncertainty and a barrage of new information on subjects most of us didn't have to know about before, so it's also not surprising if it can be very hard to evaluate that new info and make decisions.
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I have a friend (who has *just* about stayed a friend despite this) who despite being mature and well-educated, is a proper frothing-at-the-eyeballs anti-masker anti-vaxxer plandemic scamdemic great-reset covid-denying conspiracy loon (which in a rare moment of sympathy I have attributed to it simply being her distraught emotional reaction / psychological damage due to the trauma of the pandemic and all the various government dictates to deal with it - everyone has been affected and reacted in different ways).
She won't get the vaccine (despite being equally vehemently opposed to the lockdowns.....which the vaccines are clearly a method to avoid) because she has "seen documents and evidence" (said in an ominous "I can't say any more" voice). Would you like me to put her in touch?? I'd love to see a transcript of the discussions ;D ::)
I didn't realise you knew my partner's sister 😀
Seriously, I'm a bit shocked of late at all the previously seemingly sensible people who are heading into the rabbit hole and believing anything they're told.
I'm almost at the point of thinking that the antivax thing is a conspiracy and they're all getting subliminal messages through YouTube or something 😳
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Seriously, I'm a bit shocked of late at all the previously seemingly sensible people who are heading into the rabbit hole and believing anything they're told.
Like us sheeple all mindlessly following the government statistics and guidelines :o
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[Like us sheeple all mindlessly following the government statistics and guidelines :o
To be fair, the government's handling of the pandemic should be enough to convince anything that they're a bunch of incompetent bullshitters making it up as they go along.
So I can see why "get your vaccine because the government says to!" is not a trust-inducing sell.
(I prefer "mercifully, this bunch of bastards were not responsible for any of the science".)
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There was a van parked up in Llanberis last weekend with a sticker on it that said "the idea that a human breathing near another human can be dangerous is the biggest con in history". I wanted to point out that 50 million people around the world after ww1, the entire aztec and inca populations, and half of working class Ireland in the 1920s would beg to differ. But how do you argue with these people?
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I say jab them in their sleep. It's the only way to be sure.
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I say jab them in their sleep. It's the only way to be sure.
Far too kind.
Can’t we let nature take it’s course?
(I might not be best placed for such decisions at 2:50am on a sleepless night, waiting for the long shot of single malt to lull me into oblivion… but… I can’t help but bring to mind Kenny Everet’s “General Cheeseburger”…
“Round ‘em up, put ‘em in a field and…..”).
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ne3VOnnUE8 (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ne3VOnnUE8)
Seriously, though, after the last few years of populist shit, of Brexit and Johnson and Trump and, and, and, et al. It’s getting hard to be understanding and respectful of “people’s” opinions, when every fibre of my being wants to scream at the thought of them actually having a vote, that might decide my children’s futures.
Possibly, the worst part is that it is “populist”.
That old homily about “the poor shall always be with us”, whilst grimly sad in it’s accuracy, is woefully short of the mark, for neglecting the “a bit thick” and “the credulous”; who (in fact) seem to swamp us.
Do remind drunk Matt, not to post whilst drunk, tomorrow.
May you all sleep better than me.
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But how do you argue with these people?
See, I think there are two different groups we're talking about here. There are the committed anti-vaxxers, who are pretty far down the rabbit hole (and working out how to de-radicalize people who've gone that deep is a whole field of study).
But studies (and personal experience) suggest there are also a lot of "vaccine-hesitant" people out there, who are just not sure yet, and who are potentially open to being convinced.
They might not be against the Covid vaccine in general, but they've heard stuff that worries them and don't have time/energy to sort out what's true yet, or they feel they don't know enough yet, and/or they figure they're in their 20s/30s and healthy so there's no rush for them to get it, etc..
With that group, going YOU'RE ALL IDIOTS AND YOU DESERVE TO DIE is probably not the best way to open a conversation.
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Because it's one thing that worries people a lot -- immunologist Andrew Croxford has a fantastic thread on the "But there's no long-term safety data!" argument and why that isn't actually a worry here:
https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1416414041329786881
Viki Male (immunologist working on pregnancy specifically) maintains a great explainer on the evidence re: the Covid vaccines and fertility, pregnancy and breastfeeding, and also does heroic work talking through the data with people who are concerned:
https://twitter.com/VikiLovesFACS/status/1367099701238116353
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Amidst stalling vaccination rates in the UK, especially for second vaccinations, my 23 year old daughter presented herself at a walk-in centre in St Helens yesterday ... and was turned away, despite the centre having doses on hand. She is more than 28 days post her first shot of Moderna. Why the hell, at this point, are they not simply vaccinating every eligible* person who presents themselves. She is distraught.
*eligible in the sense of recommended elapse of time between doses.
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FYI for those in Sheffield who have had one Pfizer, Darnall walk in will definitely give you a second dose after 3 weeks from first - partner did it yesterday. This is in contrast to a nearer walk in which said it was more than their job was worth to break 8 weeks gap. So depends where you go...
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FYI for those in Sheffield who have had one Pfizer, Darnall walk in will definitely give you a second dose after 3 weeks from first ... So depends where you go...
Several of my daughter's friends (same age) have had no trouble getting a second Pfizer post-21 days, so I don't know if it's somewhat dependent on type of vaccine as well?
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Why the hell, at this point, are they not simply vaccinating every eligible* person who presents themselves.
mRNA supply logistics, it's suspected.
https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1412831584034738178
And choosing to respond to that by rigidly enforcing the 8-week limit (even though we know perfectly well that the mRNA vaccines work fine with a 21/28 day interval).
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Why the hell, at this point, are they not simply vaccinating every eligible* person who presents themselves.
mRNA supply logistics, it's suspected.
https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1412831584034738178
And choosing to respond to that by rigidly enforcing the 8-week limit (even though we know perfectly well that the mRNA vaccines work fine with a 21/28 day interval).
Realistically, I know the explanation will be logistics - but in the current context (surging rates) rigidity makes no sense to. Obviously, I know I'm also pleading a highly personal case here (I'm really pissed off, in other words).
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Several of my daughter's friends (same age) have had no trouble getting a second Pfizer post-21 days, so I don't know if it's somewhat dependent on type of vaccine as well?
Could be -- there's only a small amount of Moderna around in the UK at the moment.
Of course, Pfizer and Moderna are functionally interchangeable (they're almost identical), so mixing them is going to make zero difference and Canada's already okayed doing that, but the UK has not.
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Because it's one thing that worries people a lot -- immunologist Andrew Croxford has a fantastic thread on the "But there's no long-term safety data!" argument and why that isn't actually a worry here:
https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1416414041329786881
Viki Male (immunologist working on pregnancy specifically) maintains a great explainer on the evidence re: the Covid vaccines and fertility, pregnancy and breastfeeding, and also does heroic work talking through the data with people who are concerned:
https://twitter.com/VikiLovesFACS/status/1367099701238116353
Thanks for the last link, the Google Doc it links to will be great for a pregnant customer who's a bit worried.
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Because it's one thing that worries people a lot -- immunologist Andrew Croxford has a fantastic thread on the "But there's no long-term safety data!" argument and why that isn't actually a worry here:
https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1416414041329786881
Viki Male (immunologist working on pregnancy specifically) maintains a great explainer on the evidence re: the Covid vaccines and fertility, pregnancy and breastfeeding, and also does heroic work talking through the data with people who are concerned:
https://twitter.com/VikiLovesFACS/status/1367099701238116353
Thanks for the last link, the Google Doc it links to will be great for a pregnant customer who's a bit worried.
Yeah, it's fantastic, isn't it? She's also great at talking through the data with people in a non-patronizing and patient way.
It's also worth people being aware that getting Covid during pregnancy can be nasty -- if you have Covid, being pregnant increases the risk that you'll need ICU treatment or die, and Covid increases the risk of preterm delivery and of babies needing to be admitted to NICU:
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3320
This is from an ICU nurse:
https://twitter.com/kathryniveyy/status/1387247990977478656
There's so much pressure on pregnant people to be paranoid that if you eat the wrong thing or take the wrong medication you'll damage your baby permanently; I can totally see why people get anxious about the Covid vaccines (especially with the bonus of the UK's very unclear communications about this) and worry that maybe it'd be safer to avoid them until after birth.
But the data on their safety in pregnancy is now really good, and the data on Covid in pregnancy is really alarming.
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Amidst stalling vaccination rates in the UK, especially for second vaccinations, my 23 year old daughter presented herself at a walk-in centre in St Helens yesterday ... and was turned away, despite the centre having doses on hand. She is more than 28 days post her first shot of Moderna. Why the hell, at this point, are they not simply vaccinating every eligible* person who presents themselves. She is distraught.
*eligible in the sense of recommended elapse of time between doses.
Now my Paracetamol/Ibuprofen/coffee/chocolate digestives have kicked in…
I’m not too clear on why you see this as “stalling rates”? 188K second doses yesterday and just shy of 68K first doses yesterday.
So, if maintained, ~100 days to full vaccination, first and second dose.
I suppose, given that as much as 10% of the population might not seek vaccination, we’re looking at two months-ish and we’ll have got as much done as we probably will.
I can see the supply issues slowing things, but aren’t we into a section of the population that is also going to struggle to find time, both for appointments and the knock on of side effects? Young families, relatively junior work positions making time off harder to arrange etc etc?
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OK, stalled was probably a bit strong, but those numbers are a decline ... and, as I acknowledged above, I'm feeling pissed off this morning (with some justification IMO, not helped by the fact that late yesterday Denmark moved the UK to its red list, so a visit is now almost impossible anyway, even for the double vaccinated).
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But how do you argue with these people?
See, I think there are two different groups we're talking about here. There are the committed anti-vaxxers, who are pretty far down the rabbit hole (and working out how to de-radicalize people who've gone that deep is a whole field of study).
But studies (and personal experience) suggest there are also a lot of "vaccine-hesitant" people out there, who are just not sure yet, and who are potentially open to being convinced.
They might not be against the Covid vaccine in general, but they've heard stuff that worries them and don't have time/energy to sort out what's true yet, or they feel they don't know enough yet, and/or they figure they're in their 20s/30s and healthy so there's no rush for them to get it, etc..
With that group, going YOU'RE ALL IDIOTS AND YOU DESERVE TO DIE is probably not the best way to open a conversation.
Spot on. Sadly, the dyed-in-the-wool deniers are a cult and highly unlikely to change their minds. Fortunately, they are a small percentage of the population (overall) but it can be very distressing if a friend or family falls into this camp. Best ignore or mute them on social media for your own mental health and to not amplify their message.
For the concerned, gently explore beliefs, empathise with their worries - whatever they are ("totally understand you don't trust the current government") before addressing them.
If you’re dealing with a waverer who comes with big business / pharma / government / international agency mistrust you might consider pointing them in the direction of Larry Brilliant. He’s the former personal doctor to the Grateful Dead (!), who joined the WHO smallpox eradication programme in India on the advice of his guru after several years at an Ashram, and is now a world expert on vaccination programmes.
Interviewed on the How To Vaccinate the World podcast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000qz3p
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my 23 year old daughter presented herself at a walk-in centre in St Helens yesterday ... and was turned away,
At the risk of spreading internet nonsense, my wife tried to volunteer there (NHS with all the background training/documentation). The application and onboarding was a triumph of bureaucracy and mishap, she’s still never done a shift there.
Hope your daughter is sorted soon, hopefully low risk and just wants to get it done.
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Dr Brilliant is also in https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000w6s5/extra-life-a-short-history-of-living-longer-series-1-1-vaccines
In which he made me unexpectedly get teary when he was talking about meeting a little girl in Bangladesh and knowing that she was going to be the last human being who had smallpox ever.
(Okay, technically last known human to catch variola major in the wild, whatever.)
It also features the excellent Dr Kizzmekia Corbett, lead on the Moderna Covid vaccine team and a phenomenal science communicator.
And in general it might be a good thing to lob at people who are coming from a starting point of distrusting government/authorities -- the series is strong on awareness of power and inequalities, particularly race and class, and very good at explaining the medical history and being extremely pro- vaccines and other interventions, but without pretending that doctors and governments have always been right.
(Because one thing you learn from the history of medicine is just how often they haven't been.)
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Also, this is the postcard Dr Brilliant mailed to his guru to let him know that smallpox had been eradicated:
https://twitter.com/tarun281992/status/1409854481953542144
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Realistically, I know the explanation will be logistics - but in the current context (surging rates) rigidity makes no sense to.
Oh, totally agreed! Especially given that Delta takes such a bite out of the protection from the first dose, and that people in their twenties are such a high-risk group for transmission right now.
I think it'd be very sensible to go "okay, we'll let anyone who's keen get their second dose after 28 days". If we're hitting a demand ceiling on first doses -- fuck it, use them for second doses. Store jabs in arms not warehouses, as Mainwood likes to say.
And if you end up with a week or two when it's harder for people to book first-dose appointments before the next big Pfizer shipment comes in, a little scarcity might help stimulate demand.
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If we're going full multi-media, this is outstanding:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000x2tf/horizon-2021-1-horizon-special-the-vaccine
I'd rec to anyone as an amazing bit of documentary-making telling an amazing story, but it could be especially valuable for people who have some concerns about Big Pharma or worried about how fast the vaccines were produced, or just feel they don't know enough about the process -- it does a very good job showing the scientists as individual humans who did heroic work to make it happen, rather than nameless and faceless minions of Capitalism or Bill Gates or whoever.
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Drove passed a packed Paignton Green, earlier; where a pop up vaccine tent/ambulance combo had a very healthy queue. My chief instructor had his second dose at a similar pop up on Torquay harbour, on Friday; again, quite a queue and multiple stabbers. I wonder if these pop ups might be slower adding their figues to the daily totals?
We had a staff meeting at the Bunker last night, looking at how we would handle Monday’s easing of restrictions. Bearing in mind the staff are all 25 or under, I had been expecting a push for complete relaxation. Quite the opposite, they were anxious. Less, I think, a fear of serious illness (though some expressions of that) but a fear of ten days isolation or weeks off work and of bringing home the infection to family etc.
Unanimous vote to keep the restrictions as they are in the wall and we’ll deal with the backlash.
To be fair, so far the response to the announcement on social media has been marked and universally positive. Not so much as an angry emoji.
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Why the hell, at this point, are they not simply vaccinating every eligible* person who presents themselves.
mRNA supply logistics, it's suspected.
https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1412831584034738178
And choosing to respond to that by rigidly enforcing the 8-week limit (even though we know perfectly well that the mRNA vaccines work fine with a 21/28 day interval).
Realistically, I know the explanation will be logistics - but in the current context (surging rates) rigidity makes no sense to. Obviously, I know I'm also pleading a highly personal case here (I'm really pissed off, in other words).
We just had the same thing happen. Went to the SECC in Glasgow at 5pm, 1 hour before that centre (it was an emergency hospital that never got used, then a mass vaccination centre) closes for the last time and there was basically no-one there. Despite being 6 weeks since our first jab, they wouldn't do us. Plenty vaccine, no-one else there but some arbitrary number that seems to have no real backup. Surely getting as many people double vaccinated as quickly as possible is just the best course of action just now?
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there was basically no-one there.
I don't think I mentioned this, but the centre my daughter was turned away from was also all but empty.
Sorry it happened to you as well.
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there was basically no-one there.
I don't think I mentioned this, but the centre my daughter was turned away from was also all but empty.
Sorry it happened to you as well.
Ach, I was fully expecting it - just hoping we'd get lucky. Aunty Nic is running a tight ship up here, no defectors.
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Talking to a couple of people I know who haven't been jabbed, the reason seems to be basically they feel the risks of the jab outweigh the risks of getting Covid. Both under 40, so tiny risks either way, but one you have to actively opt in to, so why bother. Mixed up with some stuff about not liking the feeling of coercion.
Also for example, various reports stating 50-60% of patients currently on Covid wards have not been vaccinated. So then half of them have been vaccinated then? What's the fucking point in that then?
I suggested that a) they were probably at risk anyway (but didn't have any stats) and b) that maybe look at it that 85% have been jabbed so therefore actually underrepresented and also overall rates are way down and the risk of death or long term complications is improved but tbh you've lost them with the initial gut reaction.
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I heard someone at work the other day saying "I heard most deaths are those who are double vaccinated" well, no shit - old people's still gonna die of something! Of we get 100% double vaccinated then *all* the deaths will be from the double vaccinated group....
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I thought this picture (fingers crossed twitter embed works) was a great bit of data viz to show the effectiveness of the vaccinations:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6wQSCiWEAYiWoA?format=jpg&name=900x900)
(source) (https://twitter.com/sphams/status/1415636456446603268)
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Talking to a couple of people I know who haven't been jabbed, the reason seems to be basically they feel the risks of the jab outweigh the risks of getting Covid. Both under 40, so tiny risks either way, but one you have to actively opt in to, so why bother. Mixed up with some stuff about not liking the feeling of coercion.
Also for example, various reports stating 50-60% of patients currently on Covid wards have not been vaccinated. So then half of them have been vaccinated then? What's the fucking point in that then?
I suggested that a) they were probably at risk anyway (but didn't have any stats) and b) that maybe look at it that 85% have been jabbed so therefore actually underrepresented and also overall rates are way down and the risk of death or long term complications is improved but tbh you've lost them with the initial gut reaction.
Really good, simple thread (with stats) explaining what I will now always think of as the "squish down" effect:
https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1417365020497883148
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To counter the "people can't get the vaccine" stories, I had tried, and failed, to bring my second jab forward because of the 8 week gap and a holiday so was "stuck" at 9 weeks. I'd tried to change it online but no dice.
Then, out of the blue, I got a call from the "NHS Vaccine Team" last Friday and I was booked in Monday lunchtime.
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I thought this picture (fingers crossed twitter embed works) was a great bit of data viz to show the effectiveness of the vaccinations:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6wQSCiWEAYiWoA?format=jpg&name=900x900)
(source) (https://twitter.com/sphams/status/1415636456446603268)
Oh, that's a FANTASTIC bit of data viz, great work.
And of course even that that under-estimates the effectiveness of the vaccines, because our rollout was so age-stratified -- the fully-vaccinated people at this point are skewed heavily towards people who are older and/or clinically vulnerable, so have much higher risk of hospitalization to start with.
If you looked at hospitalizations during previous waves, the people who are now "green" would have made up a much higher percentage of hospitalizations than their percentage of the population. So the effect of the vaccines in lowering that so drastically is even greater than it looks.
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If a little fear might motivate anyone you know, this thread from an ICU doc is brutal:
https://twitter.com/seahorse4000/status/1416152376449372160
I can't count the number of times today I wrote "40 years old" (or 30, or 35) "fit and well, no medical history, not vaccinated"
Some people dig in harder in response to fear, so pick your weapons to suit.
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To counter the "people can't get the vaccine" stories, I had tried, and failed, to bring my second jab forward because of the 8 week gap and a holiday so was "stuck" at 9 weeks. I'd tried to change it online but no dice.
Then, out of the blue, I got a call from the "NHS Vaccine Team" last Friday and I was booked in Monday lunchtime.
There is a lot of difficulty for some people in rebooking second doses to come forward. I tried for weeks but there were just no appointments available. In the end I got it easily at a walk-in centre that had lots of capacity, but you need to keep an eye on the local council's social media and be able to travel when the centres are running. It seems there are relatively few actual appointments available any more round here and almost everywhere is focusing on walk-ins. I'm not sure what happens if you try to book a first dose appointment, I suspect you have to travel significantly further than when I got mine but there is no way of checking.
Bit off topic, vaccine hesitancy is obviously a thing to be addressed, but there are still problems with the delivery/logistics for some people too, it's worth remembering that.
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Talking to a couple of people I know who haven't been jabbed, the reason seems to be basically they feel the risks of the jab outweigh the risks of getting Covid. Both under 40, so tiny risks either way, but one you have to actively opt in to, so why bother. Mixed up with some stuff about not liking the feeling of coercion.
Also for example, various reports stating 50-60% of patients currently on Covid wards have not been vaccinated. So then half of them have been vaccinated then? What's the fucking point in that then?
I suggested that a) they were probably at risk anyway (but didn't have any stats) and b) that maybe look at it that 85% have been jabbed so therefore actually underrepresented and also overall rates are way down and the risk of death or long term complications is improved but tbh you've lost them with the initial gut reaction.
Really good, simple thread (with stats) explaining what I will now always think of as the "squish down" effect:
https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1417365020497883148
That reminds me, in respect of some of the posts above about getting second jabs 'early' - Mainwood was also on More or Less last week presenting a picture that vaccine supply is sufficient to do second doses after 8 weeks but, if everyone took up the option to bring second doses forward, there is insufficient supply to bring them forward any more than that. Hence the need to keep to 8 weeks and no sooner as the general principle.
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Bit off topic, vaccine hesitancy is obviously a thing to be addressed, but there are still problems with the delivery/logistics for some people too, it's worth remembering that.
I don't think it's off-topic -- for people who are feeling iffy or unsure about getting the vaccine, any difficulty and inconvenience getting it is going to deter them.
If you have to have a certain level of determination (and spare time/energy) in order to arrange it, some people who might be willing to get it in principle but aren't super-keen will be filtered out. They might give up, or they might just decide it's something they'll get around to at some future point and keep putting it off.
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Talking to a couple of people I know who haven't been jabbed, the reason seems to be basically they feel the risks of the jab outweigh the risks of getting Covid. Both under 40, so tiny risks either way, but one you have to actively opt in to, so why bother. Mixed up with some stuff about not liking the feeling of coercion.
Sometimes it's worth trying to put numbers on tiny risks, so let's do this for your under 40 couple. Their annual risk of dying for their age group is ~0.001 (0.1%) - based on the 35-44 dat in R2P2 Appendix 4 Table 1. The infection fatality rate for their age group (I'm assuming late 30s from 'under 40') is estimated to be 0.09%, so if you assume that getting infected over the course of a year with no restrictions in place is almost certain (especially if you think the risk to you is tiny and base your behaviour on that), then your risk of dying has pretty much doubled due to Covid (0.19%). If you got vaccinated, then that fatality risk due to covid is reduced by ~95%, so the annual risk of dying is back down to 0.1045%.
The Pfizer vaccine as been administered 31.3 million times in the UK. There have been 456 UK reports of suspected adverse reactions to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in which the patient died shortly after vaccination (this doesn't mean the vaccine caused the death, just that there was suspicion that it could have contributed). If we take the worst case view that the vaccine caused all these deaths (this is unrealistically pessimistic), then the risk of dying from two shots of Pfizer would be 0.0029%.
In summary, the risk from covid in your late thirties is comparable to the cumulative risk of everything else that could kill you in the next year. Being vaccinated means that increase in risk is reduced by 95%. The covid risk is still greater after vaccination than the risk of the vaccination. This is ignoring the benfits of not being hospitlised or having long covid.
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There have been 456 UK reports of suspected adverse reactions to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in which the patient died shortly after vaccination (this doesn't mean the vaccine caused the death, just that there was suspicion that it could have contributed).
If that's the Yellow Card data, it doesn't even necessarily mean there's suspicion per se, just that the death occurred shortly after the vaccine. Like VAERS in the US, the system's designed to be super-sensitive and pick up anything possible (including a tonne of stuff with no causal relationship at all), so that any real effects can be spotted a.s.a.p..
Which is how things like the blood clotting risk with AZ and the myocarditis risk with the mRNA vaccines have been identified.
Based on everything I know: the mRNA vaccines are ridiculously safe by ordinary medical standards. They're certainly safer than, say, ibuprofen (NSAIDs are believed to contribute to circa 2000 deaths per year in the UK: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-16178055 ).
Also, of course, aside from protection from personal risk, they also slash the risk that you'll pass the virus on to someone else much more vulnerable than you (including people who are vaccinated but are less protected, e.g. because they're immunocompromised).
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Sometimes it's worth trying to put numbers on tiny risks, so let's do this for your under 40 couple.
Thank you for this, I've been wondering how I source the "numbers" to try and answer a relatives concerns (although not sure they're applying logic at this point..)
Is there a chance you could do similar for the 20-30 yr old age range?
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There have been 456 UK reports of suspected adverse reactions to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in which the patient died shortly after vaccination (this doesn't mean the vaccine caused the death, just that there was suspicion that it could have contributed).
If that's the Yellow Card data, it doesn't even necessarily mean there's suspicion per se, just that the death occurred shortly after the vaccine. Like VAERS in the US, the system's designed to be super-sensitive and pick up anything possible (including a tonne of stuff with no causal relationship at all), so that any real effects can be spotted a.s.a.p..
Which is how things like the blood clotting risk with AZ and the myocarditis risk with the mRNA vaccines have been identified.
Yes, from the Yellow Card data - sorry if I've implied a stronger link between the vaccine and deaths than that records. That's why I say the worst case figure is unrealistically pessimistic, but it does at least provide a useful upper bound.
Also, of course, aside from protection from personal risk, they also slash the risk that you'll pass the virus on to someone else much more vulnerable than you (including people who are vaccinated but are less protected, e.g. because they're immunocompromised).
Yes, I ignored all this. My assumption being that when people say the risks to them outweigh the benefits, they only care about their own self-interest and arguments about protecting other people won't be convincing.
Sometimes it's worth trying to put numbers on tiny risks, so let's do this for your under 40 couple.
Thank you for this, I've been wondering how I source the "numbers" to try and answer a relatives concerns (although not sure they're applying logic at this point..)
Is there a chance you could do similar for the 20-30 yr old age range?
I'll give it a bash.
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Not the same stats, but I pulled this from the ONS data that you can download here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases
COVID deaths by age (sorry if formatting is screwy):
Age Deaths % Pop. Risk
0-4 3 0.00 3,857,263 0.000%
5-9 3 0.00 4,149,852 0.000%
10-14 10 0.01 3,953,866 0.000%
15-19 22 0.02 3,656,968 0.001%
20-24 60 0.04 4,153,080 0.001%
25-29 128 0.09 4,514,249 0.003%
30-34 245 0.18 4,497,132 0.005%
35-39 426 0.31 4,395,667 0.010%
40-44 706 0.51 4,019,539 0.018%
45-49 1,384 1.00 4,402,122 0.031%
50-54 2,524 1.82 4,661,015 0.054%
55-59 4,182 3.01 4,405,908 0.095%
60-64 6,251 4.51 3,755,185 0.166%
65-69 8,426 6.07 3,368,199 0.250%
70-74 13,273 9.57 3,318,867 0.400%
75-79 18,457 13.30 2,325,296 0.794%
80-84 25,052 18.06 1,715,328 1.460%
85-89 27,535 19.85 1,042,090 2.642%
90+ 30,063 21.67 605,181 4.968%
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Also, of course, aside from protection from personal risk, they also slash the risk that you'll pass the virus on to someone else much more vulnerable than you (including people who are vaccinated but are less protected, e.g. because they're immunocompromised).
Important point and much overlooked. Including by me when it didn't affect me directly. There's 3.7 million out of 56 million people in England who are clinically extremely vulnerable. 6.6%. Add in their households / carers / dependents etc who will need to be similarly careful in terms of transmission and you're probably looking at 10+% of the population. I suspect literally everyone will know someone in this group, although they may not realise. Anything that gives them a hand is welcome, especially as the current "freedom rules" are anything but for them...
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In summary, the risk from covid in your late thirties is comparable to the cumulative risk of everything else that could kill you in the next year.
This doesn't seem to add up:
(from ONS figures)
35-39 age group had 426 deaths from covid since start of pandemic (over a year, but very few in the last 3 months)
2019 (pre pandemic) figures for deaths aren't broken down by the same age granularity, but 15-44 age group had 14,714 deaths.
If we assume deaths are equally spread across this age group thats 2,452 deaths in the 35-39 interval. (this is likely a significant underestimate, mortality is positively correlated with age and late thirties are towards the end of 15-44)
So at least 6 times more likely to die of "something else" than covid in your late 30's
Do you mean the risk from COVID if you catch it?
PS I'm double jabbed and pro vaccine etc, not trying to dissuade anyone
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In summary, the risk from covid in your late thirties is comparable to the cumulative risk of everything else that could kill you in the next year.
This doesn't seem to add up:
(from ONS figures)
35-39 age group had 426 deaths from covid since start of pandemic (over a year, but very few in the last 3 months)
2019 (pre pandemic) figures for deaths aren't broken down by the same age granularity, but 15-44 age group had 14,714 deaths.
If we assume deaths are equally spread across this age group thats 2,452 deaths in the 35-39 interval. (this is likely a significant underestimate, mortality is positively correlated with age and late thirties are towards the end of 15-44)
So at least 6 times more likely to die of "something else" than covid in your late 30's
The problem here is these are the covid deaths with multiple lockdowns and restrictions, which we've just lifted and are apparently irreversible.
Do you mean the risk from COVID if you catch it?
PS I'm double jabbed and pro vaccine etc, not trying to dissuade anyone
Infection Fatality Rate is the risk of death if you have an infection, so yes this is the risk if you catch it. That's why I said:
if you assume that getting infected over the course of a year with no restrictions in place is almost certain (especially if you think the risk to you is tiny and base your behaviour on that)...
You can argue that the risk of infection isn't certain, but it's got to be pretty high with no restrictions. Possible infection rates of 80% were being discussed before the first lockdown and we've now got more transmissible variants. Now, vaccination is supposed to reduce transmission so that will reduce the chance of infection, and you could take the view that you'll not get vaccinated and let enough people get vaccinated so that the risk is reduced to you, but if everyone took that view then we're stuffed. You need to be having a very low risk of infection (<3%) for the covid risk to be similar to the unrealistically high upper bound on the vaccine risk (which is probably order(s) of magnitude higher than the true vaccine risk).
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Sometimes it's worth trying to put numbers on tiny risks, so let's do this for your under 40 couple.
Thank you for this, I've been wondering how I source the "numbers" to try and answer a relatives concerns (although not sure they're applying logic at this point..)
Is there a chance you could do similar for the 20-30 yr old age range?
So your normal risk of death in a year if you're 25-34 is 0.054% (I've averaged this across men and women, though the risk to men (~0.08%) is about double that to women in this age range (~0.04%)). Infection Fatality Rate is estimated to be 0.04% for 25-29, so again if you assume infection will occur within a year, covid risk is pretty similar to the overall risk in a normal year. Vaccination would reduce the covid risk by 95% to 0.002%.
So for this age group the covid risk is still more than an order of magnitude greater than the (unrealistically pessimistic) upper bound of the vaccine risk. You'd have to be arguing that your chance of infection in a year is a single-digit percentage for the covid risk to be similar to the (unrealistically pessimistic) upper bound of the vaccine risk, which to be honest is probably order(s) of magnitude greater than the true risk of the vaccine.
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As an aside and slightly off-topic, this reminds me of reading up on longevity (related to pension forecasting) and discovering that you have to be careful with how you interpret the life 'average' expectancy and careful which data you take from the ONS tables. This is because they're cumulative. I.E. the life expectancy figure at birth is heavily skewed lower by all the people who'll die early along the way. Also they take account of people older than you, who were born when life expectancies were lower (generally life expectancy has improved over time.. austerity genocide claims notwithstanding).You need to calculate life expectancy at your current age, not from birth. For e.g. the average remaining life years at age 40 has already discounted the 'early unfortunate deaths' who didn't make it to age 40, and is far higher than the supposed 'average age' from birth. It's a moving average.
So need to be cautious using risk of dying and ONS life expectancies. (not saying Nutty's calcs are incorrect btw, and I agree with the sentiment. Just saying check what the figures are based on)
Explanation here: https://monevator.com/why-your-life-expectancy-is-much-longer-than-you-think/
Life expectancy: how long have I got?
The obvious way to guesstimate the length of your mortal coil is by using national life expectancy data. But if you simply google ‘average UK life expectancy’ then you’ll seriously underestimate your longevity risk.
Average life expectancy for males is currently 79.2 years. Females clock in at 82.9. But those headline stats do not squarely site you within swiping distance of Death’s scythe.
You can check how off-beam they could be for you by using the life expectancy calculator provided by The Office Of National Statistics (ONS).
If I type in my current age and sex then my average life expectancy is 85 – or 88 if I switch to being a woman.
I’m already up six years versus the UK male average of 79.2. Go me.
This happens because my personal statistic eliminates all the older people who are closer to Heaven’s Gate than me. Lifespans are expected to improve over time. My life expectancy would be 87 if I was 20 years younger and hoping to cash in on improved medical treatment, gene therapy, or artery-cleaning nanobots.
My chances of making my average life expectancy are higher than 50%, as you can see in the chart.
I’ve got a 25% shot of reaching age 94. I don’t fancy running the risk of going broke any earlier than that when the odds are so high.
I’ll even see my 99th birthday in one out of 10 possible futures.
From a planning perspective, 10% seems like a reasonable cut-off point. I’m prepared to take the risk of making it to a telegram from Her Maj without a penny left in my pot. That means I should plan for an estimated lifespan of more than 50 years if I retire today.
But I’m not retiring today. Moreover, today’s 65-year-old male is expected to live on average to age 86. That’s higher than my average of 85 even though I’m 20 years younger!
What gives? Was yesterday’s model male made of tougher stuff?
Well, the 65-year-old has already ducked the misfortune that can take out anyone at a younger age. By virtue of surviving to any given age, you patently haven’t died earlier.
In everyday life that goes without saying – I never congratulated grandma on her persistence. But it does matter in the average lifespan game.
The headline UK life expectancy figure measures death rates from birth. Therefore it’s lowered by everyone who fell at the earlier hurdles. By the time you’re 25, 65, or 102, that ‘from birth’ number is less and less relevant. It’s the average mortality data for your current age cohort that tells you more about your chances later in the race.
A quick tap into the calculator tells us that today’s 100-year-old is expected to make 102. They have a 25% chance of celebrating 103.
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So your normal risk of death in a year if you're 25-34 is 0.054% (I've averaged this across men and women, though the risk to men (~0.08%) is about double that to women in this age range (~0.04%)). Infection Fatality Rate is estimated to be 0.04% for 25-29, so again if you assume infection will occur within a year, covid risk is pretty similar to the overall risk in a normal year. Vaccination would reduce the covid risk by 95% to 0.002%.
Thanks Nutty!
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For e.g. the average remaining life years at age 40 has already discounted the 'early unfortunate deaths' who didn't make it to age 40, and is far higher than the supposed 'average age' from birth. It's a moving average.
You are spot on here Pete. That's the issue with the "it only kills 80yos, they are about to die anyway" rhetoric. If you are 80, your life expectancy is 89/90 with a 25% chance of making 93/94 (male/female).
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This guy's not worried. Seen in line at the vaccination centre this afternoon.
(https://scontent-cph2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/222783904_10159233531829590_7891763548827920008_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&_nc_rgb565=1&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=18QZStMyjNoAX8jc_9B&tn=TMVffO2a-YcUC7ZV&_nc_ht=scontent-cph2-1.xx&oh=e9e8d121dc2607700d29ef9d52c3c931&oe=60FF3790)
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I respect the style there.
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FWIW, I think one of the most useful things I've done in this whole mess has been to say (and give friends permission to pass on to their friends): "Okay, I'm a massive nerd who's been up to my ears reading up on the vaccine research; if you have particular concerns or worries, just let me know what they are and I will try to come back to you with info."
(And then try very very hard to make sure I don't ever sound dismissive or pressure-y in how I lay out the info and explanations.)
The people who've already made up their minds won't bite, of course. But I think I've managed to reassure at least one hesitant person.
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Although I didn’t know this man, I have a surprising number of friends and acquaintances that fit his profile very well.
Quite a few of my life long friends have hit middle age and opted to fight it with exercise and nutrition. I think we’re far, far healthier, strong and active than our fathers were at this age, but too many seem to think “living healthy” makes them invulnerable:
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-fit-and-healthy-man-42-killed-by-coronavirus-regretted-refusing-vaccine-as-sister-issues-misinformation-warning-12373389 (https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-fit-and-healthy-man-42-killed-by-coronavirus-regretted-refusing-vaccine-as-sister-issues-misinformation-warning-12373389)
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I don't understand why people think getting the jab is going to be worse than getting the rona.
Like... whatever your physical situation. Its not get the jab or get nothing. It's get the jab or catch coronavirus without a vaccination against it. That's... obviously much worse?
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Yeah, "health" has a lot of meanings, and there's a real danger that people conflate "overall physical fitness" with "immune system's ability to fight off a novel virus it has no previous exposure to and doesn't know how to fight".
It looks like one of the things that can contribute to very severe Covid is a cytokine storm, where the immune response goes wildly into overdrive and produces massive inflammation (which is believed to be one of the things that made the 1918 flu so lethal, and why it killed so many young adults).
Being able to climb a mountain or run a marathon is not going to do much to protect you from that, any more than they'd protect you from, say, getting anaphylactic shock from something you're severely allergic to.
You're in good shape and have a strong immune system, great! Give it a fair chance by giving it a preview of what it'll have to fight off so it can learn what to do (and how not to panic and go into overdrive)! That is literally how vaccines work!
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A fifth of hospital admissions at the moment are 18-34:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58095503
The skew is going to be partly because older age-groups have much higher levels of full vaccination, but it's proof that Covid can still hit young people very hard. And there are a lot of very tired, traumatized doctors who are now having to watch patients the same as themselves or younger dying unnecessarily.
https://twitter.com/apnoeaboy/status/1415020567342862337
https://twitter.com/apnoeaboy/status/1420321794951630850
https://twitter.com/seahorse4000/status/1416152941346627585
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And, in response to people trying to claim Mr Eyers is some freak outlier:
https://twitter.com/seahorse4000/status/1423016636949409801
"Every ICU in the UK has these patients right now. "
ICNARC says mean age of critically ill patients in hospital with Covid is 49 (and mean for "invasively ventilated in the first 24 hours" is 49.7), which means a lot are going to be younger than that:
https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
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What ICNARC doesn’t show is the % percentage of those treated in icu for Covid are obese.
Having worked through the pandemic in ICU, for what I’ve seen, those in the late 40’s & 50’s who have big pot bellies and sedantry lives suffer most.
Also in regards to your previous post, you’ll find it’s also nursing staff that are being traumatised by the deaths and the lack of resources to care for people.
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True, didn't mean in any way to leave out the nursing staff, apologies!
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Errr, slightly off-topic, but can you be temporarily re-named jab_happy whilst this is going on ;D
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Errr, slightly off-topic, but can you be temporarily re-named jab_happy whilst this is going on ;D
:agree:
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Awwww, you guys say the nicest things! :lol:
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62548336 this should annoy the anti-vaxxers, which is an added bonus.
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Yeah, it's very cool, though obviously it means we're still playing catch-up with the variants as they come along, which isn't ideal.
Nice round-up of potential next big steps in vaccine research: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/15/from-nasal-vaccines-to-pills-the-next-defences-against-covid
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If you're under 50, not in a clinical risk group, and still haven't had a booster, you've only got a couple more weeks to get it:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-jab-booster-vaccine-end-b2269089.html
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Genuine question, how come we will continue with flu vaccination programs,but not with covid vaccination programs?
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From the article, looks like they are going to be heading towards a flu-style programme with (probably) annual or bi-annual Covid boosters for people over 50 or in high-risk groups, but reduced or no more boosters for the general population:
Meanwhile, the JCVI has said that there will be a need for another round of booster shots for those at highest risk in the autumn.
It has issued interim advice to the Government to prepare for the next round of booster shots later in the year.
It said that a smaller group of people should also be offered a spring booster including older people and those who are immunosuppressed, with details to be set out shortly.
Officials have also been advised that they may need an “emergency surge vaccine response” if a new variant emerges.
This is one reason why there's been some research on what happens if you give Covid and flu jabs at the same time (short answer: it's fine), because it makes things a hell of a lot more efficient if you can give people both at once.
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If you're under 50, not in a clinical risk group, and still haven't had a booster, you've only got a couple more weeks to get it:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-jab-booster-vaccine-end-b2269089.html
If you’re under 50 and not eligible for the additional (4th?) booster, you can get it if you say you care for older people, visit older people (probably even if you just know someone older based on how I was questioned).
We went to a pop up place (in Skipton again on Saturday) and they were trying to give them out to anyone really. Sounds like they’ve got a lot spare and not much demand…
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I struggle with being classified as an "older person" at 53.
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I struggle with being classified as an "older person" at 53.
Amen.
I’d throw in a hallelujah, but my arthritis is playing up…
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I struggle with being classified as an "older person" at 53.
Creaky salute.
4 jabs in, still blaming Covid for the awful drop off in running performance though. Or less training.
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I struggle with being classified as an "older person" at 53.
I told them my parents are 70 (which is true). So that’s currently the boundary of “older person” for eligibility. If I’d have said they were 50 they probably would have rejected me because that’s definitely not old ;D
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Just be clear, i was not referring to your comment about older people btw, rather where mentioned in slab_happy's quote.
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Interesting article on the US moving towards a flu-type annual booster schedule, and the researchers trying to work out what'll be needed and how it'd work best:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/26/fda-covid-19-vaccine-flu-virus-mutation