UKBouldering.com
the shizzle => shootin' the shit => Topic started by: Sloper on February 22, 2014, 02:55:35 pm
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It seems the president has fled and in many ways the state has fallen.
What ever the complexities of Ukrainian politics (and I am sure that there are many) it is simply beyond the pale for the state to use weapons as in Ukraine.
Time for the last vestiges of the USSR to be consigned to the dustbin of history? I hope so.
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It seems the president has not fled - but has moved to the more sympathetic (to him) East side of the country.. Though he is a busted flush in terms of being president it would seem.
Its really sad what has happened/is happening there... its a real Russia vs Europe microcosm. Half the country (geographically) being more Russian affiliated (east and crimea) and the rest looking to Europe and EU membership (west).
You don't have to look too far to see Putins influence in the former/present president... Whereas a chunk of the population want integration with Europe..
As you say Sloper - its crazy the state putting out snipers (in fairly open view) to gun down demonstrators..
All very sad. I hope something good can come out of all this..
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Am I right in thinking the gov have been using snipers against civilian protesters/rioters? If so that's tremendously bad form.
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Am I right in thinking the gov have been using snipers against civilian protesters/rioters 300 spartan soldiers?
(Edit. Video shows embedded, so a warning that some people may find it upsetting as it shows people being shot at)
Apparently http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=dd7_1392895682 (http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=dd7_1392895682)
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Yes, and strangely the "riot police" have been pulling down Ukrainian flags. Something odd happened there, as police from other cities are claiming they were not Ukrainian Police at all. Hard to say though as Russian is widely spoken in the East....
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A slightly facetious digression, but does anyone else think Vitali Klitschko is aiming to become "The Ultimate Man"? He was already likely the best fighter in the world (good kickboxer, best heavyweight boxer since Lennox Lewis, never been knocked down), spoke four languages fluently, had a PhD, Christ, he even plays chess with his friend Vladimir Kramnik (admittedly loses every time... but God loves a trier). Now he's actually a legitimate politician, hailed as a hero of what appears to be a successful protest movement. I suspect even someone as full as himself as Putin might feel a little inadequate meeting a 6'8" bloke called Dr Ironfist (at least until he just turns off the oil supply).
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My better half is from Lviv (a city in western Ukraine that pretty much has seceded from Ukraine, their police went to Kiev to support the protester and demonstrated in uniform, no less), and I know someone who work for an international law-firm that represent Klitschko. Still, I have nothing useful to add. The situation is pretty far from clear.
Kleptocracy works even worse then usual when there's nothing to steal.
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That last sentence is chilling and profound jwi. I hope your better halfs family and friends are all ok.
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Was listening to a segment on Radio 4 earlier about this. Apparently, the split between the population between Pro-Russia/Euro is very marginally towards Euro. The protests themselves stemmed from a violent crackdown on a student protest. Much of the continued protests are more against a historically corrupt regime and less a Russia/Euro split as we seem to be portraying. Still good to see a potential resolution, my thoughts have been with the people of Ukraine for the past few weeks.
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Having spent much of my life a little to the South, I still find it hard to believe the degree of corruption and injustice; the peoples of Eastern Europe shrug off daily. I can only imagine the enormity of the decadence in this instance, that it should arouse such anger in so stoic a populace. I remember my late wife (Romanian) was moved to utter a distinct "pah! Is that all!" at the extent of the expenses scandal...
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Good thread. It's really difficult to understand what's happending from a Western perspective. It's heartening to see oprressive "governments" being dismantled though.
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Apparently, the split between the population between Pro-Russia/Euro is very marginally towards Euro.
And very specific to regions from the little I've read about it. Need to remember that Ukraine is a huge place.
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It does seem that there are far fewer Ethnic Russians than it would first seem. Mostly transplanted during early Soviet years to water-down nationalism and then mostly located in the more industrial and militarily sensitive East.
I'm now given to understand that many Russian speakers are Ethnically Ukrainian, simply raised in "Russian" regions and may be more inclined to lean West without the powerful regional Governors?
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It does seem that there are far fewer Ethnic Russians than it would first seem. Mostly transplanted during early Soviet years to water-down nationalism and then mostly located in the more industrial and militarily sensitive East.
I'm now given to understand that many Russian speakers are Ethnically Ukrainian, simply raised in "Russian" regions and may be more inclined to lean West without the powerful regional Governors?
I think that the concept of Russian ethnicity is one to be avoided, certainly Stalin transported huge swathes of people across the Soviet Union to give effect to his nasty delusions, we are probably seeing an after shock from the collapse of the USSR and in part caused by the problems in the Caucuses in that the ideal of self determination is still one that causes real problems in the Kremlin.
It seems that there are now arrest warrants / indictments out in respect of the mass killings; how the current State responds will be a litmus test, if they go for the Caucescu (sp?) response then I'd be worried, but if they go for a proper triall with the rule of law in spirit and practice then there's a good degree of hope for a peaceful and stable transition.
Otherwise god help us.
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There are few similarities with Caecescau IMHO...
He ruled Romania for many many years (not just a few) and the state of his pillaging was equivalent to 1/4 of GNP over 10-15 years... If you ever go to Bucharest go to his Palace.. it is gobsmacking in scale and grandeour... IIRC he was universally hated by everyone - not just by a (sizable) percentage as is the case in the Ukraine.
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I'm not suggesting there are similarities with Caecescau, rather I can see there being a risk of him being tried by a People's committee and then 30 minutes later being taken out the back and shot / hanged.
As to the level of corruption in Ukraine, apparently Yanukovic's (sp, can't be arsed to google) spent $2million on a sauna complex at his out of town residence plus millions on other shite, so although he failed to compete with Caesscau it might only be the lack of time that stopped him reaching such epic levels of corruption and waste.
The (I can't beleive it's not socialism) socialist leaders do like a few billions of corruption and feather nesting don't they, it really rather puts duck houses and moat cleaning into context . . .
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Recent troubles in Sarajevo (protests/marches/strikes) are against the rampant corruption that has developed with the high levels of neo-liberalisation (by that I mean the privatisation of everything - in case I'm using the word wrong).
Is this some over-compensation for years of being ruled by strict communism? Or the surfacing of the old communist 'ruling classes' in a capitalist setting? Or a combination of both!
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Recent troubles in Sarajevo (protests/marches/strikes) are against the rampant corruption that has developed with the high levels of neo-liberalisation (by that I mean the privatisation of everything - in case I'm using the word wrong).
Is this some over-compensation for years of being ruled by strict communism? Or the surfacing of the old communist 'ruling classes' in a capitalist setting? Or a combination of both!
I think part of the problem with the former soviet sattelites and post colonial states that embreaced various forms of 'socialism' is that while they had the bony part of the aparatus of the satte they had none of the soft tissue that was functioning civil society. As such when the bony part was removed there was little to support the structures and that gave rise to the opportunity for corruption & etc
that corruption was laregly in exiastence in the pre revolutionary / independence states, but it was much less well publicised and therefore there is the apperance of an enormous increase when in reality the increase is less significant; further the new governments are less willing to put down the protests with the sort of force that the soviets and their allies historically used.
Building a functioning civil state with the sort of institutions we see as necesary and proper is not something that will happen for a while yet; indeed it will probably take several generations.
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Recent troubles in Sarajevo (protests/marches/strikes) are against the rampant corruption that has developed with the high levels of neo-liberalisation (by that I mean the privatisation of everything - in case I'm using the word wrong).
Is this some over-compensation for years of being ruled by strict communism? Or the surfacing of the old communist 'ruling classes' in a capitalist setting? Or a combination of both!
I think part of the problem with the former soviet sattelites and post colonial states that embreaced various forms of 'socialism' is that while they had the bony part of the aparatus of the satte they had none of the soft tissue that was functioning civil society. As such when the bony part was removed there was little to support the structures and that gave rise to the opportunity for corruption & etc
that corruption was laregly in exiastence in the pre revolutionary / independence states, but it was much less well publicised and therefore there is the apperance of an enormous increase when in reality the increase is less significant; further the new governments are less willing to put down the protests with the sort of force that the soviets and their allies historically used.
Building a functioning civil state with the sort of institutions we see as necesary and proper is not something that will happen for a while yet; indeed it will probably take several generations.
That is partially correct.
However, the boney part did not crumble or disappear; it merely rebranded itself.
Most of the institutions of state and politicians of the new dawn were the same faces that had stood behind the former "Fathers of their Nations".
The reality of the new freedom for those who were adult at the time was principally bewilderment.
I remember Lili's frustration with her parents (and their generation). She was 13 at the time of the revolution (and it was very similar to the current situation, even the pattern and number of deaths), so essentially grew up in freedom and spent much of her life in the West.
Her parents just never came to terms with the new reality. They could never question authority, be it the state or the church (and there's an evil empire to be reckoned with, The Romanian Orthodox Church of Corruption and Greed (a lesser known denomination)).
I remember well her fathers' shock at his first introduction to Dubai, but even there he felt at home with the Autocratic nature of the place; the absolute authority of a Police state.
His introduction to Britain in the early 00's was quite touching. He just couldn't grasp it.
Despite having a valid Visa (a year or two before joining the EU) he had a $100 bill folded into his and his wife's passport when he got to the immigration desk at Heathrow. The rather large lady behind the desk calm took them out and passed them to him (a couple of rows away Lili and I were wishing the ground would open) and laughed that "she probably could have retired just on this flight alone"...
What is worrying about the current situation is Putin.
Remember Georgia?
Notice his call to defend his fellow Russians?
Did someone say "Anschluss"?
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Indeed, one of the problems with releasing 'lifers' is the degree to which they become institutionalised.
Anyway now's probably a good time for a (modern) Russian joke.
Two oligarchs are sitting at the bar and Sergie looks over and says 'Vladimir, nice watch how much?' Vladimir replies, $80,000, from Paris!
Are you crazy Vladimir, you could have paid $100,000 for it in Geneva!
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That last sentence is chilling and profound jwi. I hope your better halfs family and friends are all ok.
Apart from a grandmother they have all emigrated. None are too eager to be on the wrong side when the curtain falls again.
Just to give an idea about the level of kleptocracy in Ukraine: Ukraine’s GDP actually grew by 3.3% in the last quarter of 2013(!) since Yanukovich cronyism was stifled by the protests
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Looks like Erdogan has finally fucked it up in Turkey too..
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Yes, a large proportion of the population are concentrated on the coast and are very Westernised. But travel an hour or two into the Hinterland and it's a very different story. Really quite tribal (sorry if that sounds condescending, it's the way the locals always described it themselves. I always felt it was çok güzel!).
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* specifically, for anyone with a brokerage account that can deal in US stocks, Turkcell (TKC) looks interesting ... a reasonably sensible mobile operator whose US-listed shares have been beaten down by the recent geopolitical fuss.
You long?
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Hold the fuck on, now we've got a unidentified army unit, with no insignia but blatantly professional well equipped soldiers turning up and occupying an airport in the Crimea? What the fuck is going on, this is mental. Apparently Russia are denying its them, chinny reckon....
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Can't comment, too busy stocking up on tinned food and trying to youtube "when the wind blows"....
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Well at the risk of assassination...
Or a law suit.
Allegedly, I have been told, and I could neither confirm, deny or attest to it's veracity.
And speaking hypothetically...
The riot police who were acting as snipers and firing on crowds last week, and were reportedly Russian speaking, and reportedly spent a strangely large amount of time removing Ukrainian flags from Kiev and possibly, may have been a complete Russian set up... Not that I'd have heard any concrete rumours from former Military associates and even if they knew anything or had been placed on high alert ten days ago, they would not have told me... So I'm just speculating, you understand, just fantasy really.
I mean, no country would contemplate an invasion of a neighbouring democracy in a modern Europe, would they? There couldn't be a visible Naval blockade in place or 8 Hind D gunships on the Tarmac of Sevastopol airport, could there?
No one could be that stupid, could they?
Given where this could go?
I, personally, have no concerns at all.
None.
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It's Ukraine... faced with WW3 or allowing Russia to occupy - it's Ukraine, they can have it. And rename it Putinistan for all I care. Which is exactly what Russia will be thinking ('cept the Putinistan bit, probably)..
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True.
But then, it was only Austria (and they were basically German anyway, right?)
And then it was only Poland...
This time around, the new Maniac has already seized large chunks of two other countries. He's making noises in the East over disputed territories with both Japan and China.
What's his long term goal?
How far might he push?
The West has been cutting back it's military for decades; he hasn't...
It's not exactly the first time this has happened (why are they always short?), and on the previous occasions the pattern was remarkably similar.
Grab a bit. See what happens. Grab a bit more...
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'Pastor Niemeyer' - GraemeA. What total fucking claptrap. Idiot.
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http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Ukraine._Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
Para 4 is of some concern...
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Pretty worrying turn of events today... Quite worried sat here.
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It is worrying. I hope I'm wrong, but I suspect those who think it will have no effect on them here in the UK; might be deluding themselves.
Not that it matters. There seems to be little that could be done politically. It seems Putin is bent on domination and Empire building.
The fallout, globally will be devastating.
And why are the people of one country worth less than another?
I suppose, of course, it would be different if it was Scotland (where the Russian Navy has been deployed recently).
If there is a no vote in the referendum, will Putin invade to secure the safety of "True Scots"?
Or the interests of hundreds of Russians who own vast areas of land in Scotland?
Pastor Niemoller was right, at the time and bitterly regretted that he could not do more.
Speaking out early, May, help to prevent a more serious conflict later.
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Very concerning :(
Whilst I don't think the west will get militarily involved - I think Russia has a massive amount to lose economically if it's assets are frozen etc..
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Some perspective from the Carnegie Institute (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/02/crimea-crisis-russia-ukraine-cold-war)
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Some perspective from the Carnegie Institute (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/02/crimea-crisis-russia-ukraine-cold-war)
I'm not sure who started it, or if that matters.
Political shenanigans do not justify armed invasion.
Furthermore, I find it hard to see the EU as some sort of colonial power, building an Empire.
Whereas Putin does seem to be fulfilling the requirements of Fascist Dictator.
I have not had a great deal of respect for the Carnegie Endowment since discovering the following...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugenics_in_the_United_States
in a Political Science lecture, many moons ago.
I don't want anyone to think that I am advocating Military action. I am not.
We are the best equipped, that any population in history has ever been, to oppose and influence events. It is possible for the humblest to be heard, should they wish.
Should this spiral out of control, it will be the Apathy of the West which allows it.
Even quiet murmurs, in concert, become mighty roars.
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Apathy, confusion and naïveté combined...
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I have little to no respect for religion in general and for the various Eastern Orthodox Churches; even contempt.
However Archbishop Klemente is a man worthy of respect. He has placed himself between the Ukrainian troops locked inside their base and the surrounding Russian forces and vows to stop the first bullet with his own body.
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Some perspective from the Carnegie Institute (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/02/crimea-crisis-russia-ukraine-cold-war)
A slightly odd perspective I thought...
The world is very different post cold war - Russia (and China) are dependent upon the EU and US for trade... its not the closed eastern bloc shop it was before which (to my reading) made many of their arguments rather odd (or even irrelevant).
Still its a different viewpoint
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I reacted strongly above because I was puntered and a comment made of 'Pastor Niemöller' - which implies Ukraine is a holocaust in the making and that I'm denying it. Way off the mark on both counts.
Firstly Russia's actions have as many similarities to Thatcher's Britain and the Falklands as they do to Hitler's quest for the domination of the whole of Europe. Secondly I'm not denying anything, - I thought that writing 'if it avoids WW3...' made it clear that I just don't think the risks of intervention are anywhere near worth the 'gains' - you have to be really fucking stupid to think it's worth risking mutually assured destruction for the sake of some relatively wish-washy clamoring for more 'democracy' by a half-arsed populace who don't appear to have a clear idea of what they want, other than being being part of the EU. I don't see a whole population trying to rise up against a genocidal maniac and being being crushed and wiped out here. Ukraine could be one of any number of places in world that has a more powerful, bullying, neighbor and a population who are vaguely 'not completely happy with their lot'.
The Crimea region has a large majority of people who see themselves more closely allied to Russia than to Ukraine (and Ukraine itself has a large minority of Russians), it will be interesting to see the outcome of the referendum in May - if we get that far without the balloon going up - and we'll see what the US/UK response is if the call (however forced) from Crimeans is that they want to be part of Russia - or a dependance of - not Ukraine. Perhaps the US could be asked to provide support to help their fight for independence!
Russia is playing a masterful game of brinkmanship and bluff-calling but it can't last. The consequences are likely to be more damaging to Russia in the long-term. One-third of all European gas is currently imported from Russia. This is a clear signal if ever one were needed to accelerate toward the goal of European energy independence.
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Looks to me like the end-game is Russia seizing Crimea and the rest of Ukraine remaining dysfunctional. US and EU will make some token complaints. We'll be fussing over something else within a year. Not saying that's a morally-correct outcome - though AFAIK the Crimea has always been part of Russia in everything but name - just my forecast.
It seems to have been tossed around between various Empires, it had some Strategic advantage for control of the Black Sea and the rivers which lead inland.
It seems small advantage today.
Perhaps someone should tell him.
It is also shortsighted of Putin IMO. (As regards the Gas) as many of his customers are actively pursuing the Fracking option and the Russian Golden Goose is possibly cooked, long term, and this can only hasten it.
Toby or Systema Ian might have the numbers/knowledge to affirm or contest my assertion?
(No time to Google).
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which implies Ukraine is a holocaust in the making and that I'm denying it.
Really. Maybe in your mind, not mine.
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It sounds like the arse is falling out of the Rouble, the question is how solid is Putin at home if the economy really tanks (again)?
Putin is now either faced with two almost impossible choices, stand down the forces in Crimea (and lose incalculable 'face' at home) or push on and become a pariah state (with dire economic consequences that may mean that he does not survive at home).
Personally I cannot see him taking the military route, which means things are going to get very messy indeed inside Russia.
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He has been making conciliatory noises all day and standing down the bulk of his forces is significant. Also note the distancing of the troops already deployed, now referred to as "Ukrainian" troops by Moscow (my arse!).
Whether this allows him to settle for holding on to the Crimea and gracefully cede the rest (the referendum result seems sure, and will be fairly adjudicated by the same "Ukrainian" troops, no doubt) or if this is merely a stall, a pretence at patience; only time will tell.
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Let's hope so, and let's hope once this is resolved people start taking serious steps against the kleptocrats, when the people with money in Russia see Putin as part of the problem then he's toast, and given his regime thus far there's probably no one ready to step into his place.
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I'd posit that the recent prison releases hint at a loosening of grip...
I can but dream...
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Some reports of a test firing of ICBM in Southern Russia. A last chance to grandstand, or is Putin really mad?
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The test firing was planned before all this and the US had been informed.
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Direct nose thumb to the US there, I think. Kerry in particular.
I heard Putin described by someone (and I forget who, A.N.Pundit probably) as a man who "has heard nothing but YES and flattery for the last decade" and "almost certainly deluded".
Nice to know he has the worlds second biggest Nuclear arsenal. A blatant threat of Armageddon in the face of some fairly puny economic sanctions?
Wow.
No problem there then...
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Well that's something, still curious when it was planned, and why they didn't postpone it.
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The test firing was planned before all this and the US had been informed.
There seems some confusion.
You know.
Like, the Yanks say not...
Frustratingly hard to pull the true picture from the rhetoric and tabloid bullshit.
Edit.
I miss read. The Yanks were informed, but only this morning. Normal is several months notice, apparently (?).
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So the question of when is vital, if it was planned in August, stupid but no big deal, if it was planned Thursday last week, different ball game.
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If this is an accurate read on the mental (and I use that word specifically) state/process of the Russian leadership, then they are utterly Bonkers!
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/why-there-will-be-war-in-ukraine/495740.html
Do they actually believe that Hitlers Ghost is coming for them?
That Everyone west of the Danube is a Nazi storm trooper?
That Ukraine intends to challenge Russia for territory?
Fucking nuts!
'Scuse my French...
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The Russians also conveniently forget that their own actions both during WWII and thereafter don't exactly stand up to scrutiny either!
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To be fair all the nations with any sort of power and leverage now a days have all protected interests and been where perhaps they should have not been at some point. Its all just hypocrisy that will blow up in everyone face one day.
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The Russians also conveniently forget that their own actions both during WWII and thereafter don't exactly stand up to scrutiny either!
FFS Sloper, who's do, really?
Baddies and goodies my arse.
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The Russians also conveniently forget that their own actions both during WWII and thereafter don't exactly stand up to scrutiny either!
FFS Sloper, who's do, really?
Baddies and goodies my arse.
Pete,
Uncle Joe killed millions (far more than Hitler) of his own people (including a conservative estimate of 2 M of his own troops, for the crime of being "contaminated" by contact with Allied troops).
He and his successors brutally suppressed the populations east of the curtain (I have spoken to and known many of those who suffered).
There is just no comparison, in modern history, except Hitlers Reich.
The worst excesses of Colonial Britain (Boer war, Amritsar etc) combined, pale into insignificance.
Even the Portuguese, consummate masters of colonial inhumanity, tip their hats to the Soviets.
War is Fucking shit.
End of.
It matters not if it is dressed up as Peace-keeping or Patriotism.
And having watched the Serbs and some of the shit that has happened in West Africa, I can promise there is no shortage of "Baddies".
I'm not so sure about "Goodies".
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Don't need a history lecture. And I was in Bosnia in 1995 and know all about Serbs.
But then I also know about the Muslims and the Croats.
And the Brits...
Bottom line is there are good people and bad, not nationalities.
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The point is that the 'Russians' are tryign to justify their actions on the basis that:-
a) the toppling of the previous President (note, not the Parliament) was the work of neo nazis, and
b) the same neo nazis were about to launch a genocidal campaign against 'ethnic russians'.
For that reason the culpability of the Russians in crimes against humanity is relevant; particularly as so many of these crimes were committed in peace time.
If there were a murderous campaign of genocide then the Russians stepping in would have strong arguments as to its legitimacy.
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Really... only those two reasons? And no others? You're as nuts as Putin if you really believe that.
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Of course tehy're raising other grounds but those two are, or at least are being presented as, the central thrust of their argument.
as for being as nuts as Putin, maybe I'm madder, I do have a propesnity to wander around bare chested and strike unusual poses.
But don't worry, I won't take offence it's not as if you compared me to Dave Thomas
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The point is that the 'Russians' are tryign to justify their actions on the basis that:-
a) the toppling of the previous President (note, not the Parliament) was the work of neo nazis, and
b) the same neo nazis were about to launch a genocidal campaign against 'ethnic russians'.
For that reason the culpability of the Russians in crimes against humanity is relevant; particularly as so many of these crimes were committed in peace time.
If there were a murderous campaign of genocide then the Russians stepping in would have strong arguments as to its legitimacy.
I don't think the 'Russians' are trying to justify anything as much as whip up a bit of nationalist, jingoistic fervour which is pretty much what any leader has done since the year dot.
Or if that doesn't work there's always 'terrorists'.
I'm still waiting for one of my students to use 'terrorists ate it' as an excuse for not handing in homework.
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Interesting...
http://youtu.be/55izx6rbCqg (http://youtu.be/55izx6rbCqg)
Anyway, I think for the most part it's all irrelevant to the central point - the Russians are not giving up the Crimea to a government that isn't sympathetic to their interests, and the cost vs benefit analysis of trying to uproot them from the penninsula just isn't going to pencil out for the West. The rest of eastern Ukraine, however, seems a bit more of a wild card.
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Interesting...
http://youtu.be/55izx6rbCqg (http://youtu.be/55izx6rbCqg)
Anyway, I think for the most part it's all irrelevant to the central point - the Russians are not giving up the Crimea to a government that isn't sympathetic to their interests, and the cost vs benefit analysis of trying to uproot them from the penninsula just isn't going to pencil out for the West. The rest of eastern Ukraine, however, seems a bit more of a wild card.
And the repsonse from Russia Today...
When a journalist disagrees with the editorial position of his or her organization, the usual course of action is to address those grievances with the editor, and, if they cannot be resolved, to quit like a professional. But when someone makes a big public show of a personal decision, it is nothing more than a self-promotional stunt. (http://rt.com/usa/rt-reacts-liz-wahl-042/)
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Perhaps she'll get a job righteously broadcasting 'the truth' on Fox News.
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na pravda da Ivestia, na Ivestia da Pravda (excuse the lack of a proper Ruski keyboard etc) but FFS as shit and one eyed Fox News is, to compare it to the RT is rediculous
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When I google'd that to see what it meant guess what the first result was?
( ''did you mean na pravda da Izvestia, na Izvestia da Pravda'' )
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=na+pravda+da+Ivestia,+na+Ivestia+da+Pravda&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=sb&gws_rd=cr&ei=-7wYU-eyLYrY7AbloYCoCQ (https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=na+pravda+da+Ivestia,+na+Ivestia+da+Pravda&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=sb&gws_rd=cr&ei=-7wYU-eyLYrY7AbloYCoCQ)
The old one's are the best eh?
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That's the one, I have heaps of old soviet era jokes.
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Nice article.
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I just talked to a ethnic Russian from eastern Ukraine who told me that anyone who prefer Russian rule over Ukrainan independence is a bloody idiot.
Make what you want of that
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Interesting take on Russias current moves (http://www.forbes.com/sites/currentevents/2014/04/16/is-vladimir-putin-another-adolf-hitler/)
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I am a fan of Stratfor, the geopolitical consulting firm ... though I am too tight to subscribe to their stuff. Stratfor's boss, George Friedman's 2009 book The Next 100 Years is worth reading IMO. An extract anticipating the crisis in Ukraine is here (http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/ukraine-and-little-cold-war?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=official&utm_campaign=link).
Their local analyst also just wrote an interesting update on Ukraine (http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/ukraines-increasing-polarization-and-western-challenge?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20140311&utm_term=Gweekly&utm_content=readmore) that seems to be free to view.
Not saying they're not a useful source of info, but.... a fan?
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2012/feb/28/wikileaks-intelligence-industrial-complex (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2012/feb/28/wikileaks-intelligence-industrial-complex)
http://wikileaks.org/the-gifiles.html (http://wikileaks.org/the-gifiles.html)
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/ (http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/)
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Yesterday my gf said that "I'll soon have passports from two countries that ceased to exists" (Soviet and Ukraine)
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What price bad intelligence? Some 5m internal emails from Stratfor, an Austin, Texas-based company that brands itself as a "global intelligence" provider, were recently obtained by Anonymous, the hacker collective, and are being released in batches by WikiLeaks, the whistleblowing website, starting Monday.
The most striking revelation from the latest disclosure is not simply the military-industrial complex that conspires to spy on citizens, activists and trouble-causers, but the extremely low quality of the information available to the highest bidder. Clients of the company include Dow Chemical, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and Raytheon, as well as US government agencies like the Department of Homeland Security, the Defense Intelligence Agency and the Marines.
...
Statfor belongs to an extensive industry. In Top Secret America, a new book by Dana Priest and William Arkin of the Washington Post, the authors reveal that there are literally thousands of so-called intelligence analysts hawking equally dubious information to the federal government
By its very nature, of course, such information is secret and often protected by government order. Nothing short of a major congressional investigation will be able to drill down into this intelligence-industrial cartel to assess not just the quality of the information and the way it was obtained, but whether or not any of it serves the public interest – or the very opposite. That is, unless Anonymous or WikiLeaks gets there and does the work first.
(Gruniad)
Are these organisations promoting the good of the public? Are they democratic? Why do they exist and what are the alternatives?
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Well they enable one to sound intelligent and informed when entering into debates about current affairs on web forum's and in coffee shops.That's got to be worth something to someone.
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Pass me the tin foil, my hat needs another layer.
I don't think that the loonie conspiracy theorists have the slightest idea of how an intelligence function works, but it helps them maintain their belief in the distorted view of the world so that's something at least.
If you're interested in how 'babylon' (descente cum filus) uses inteligence have a look at the National Intelligence Model which is probably floating out there in the ether and link this with RIPA http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2000/23/contents (http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2000/23/contents) and you'll have a good idea.
As to most of the information being of low quality & etc, err yes, that's really how it works, the tricky bit is the filtering, the evaulation and x-referencing; which is necessarily less effictive unless you have a big grab. Directed suv is of course rather different; but loop back to see where the intel for direction comes from etc.
(declaration, not a spook, never a spook, but have had lunch / worked with some in non spooky rols)
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Are these organisations promoting the good of the public? Are they democratic? Why do they exist and what are the alternatives?
Ah ... I see. I wasn't sure whether you were having a go at me or Stratfor or both.
FWIW I have not been a Stratfor client and don't know them well. In my last job, people would sometimes send me Stratfor research stuff authored by George Friedman or his colleagues on geopolitical issues, usually with a very forward-looking slant, which I enjoyed. Extrapolation or conjecture rather than "intell", frankly. Fairly recently I bought and read George Friedman's (not to be confused with Tom Friedman (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Friedman), BTW) two books "The next ten years" and "The next hundred years". I recommend them often to people.
Re Stratfor as a business, it is one of a large number of firms who market themselves to banks/ consulting firms/ hedge funds/ etc as having some unique angle that will give their clients an informational edge. My impression is that Stratfor purport to have strong CIA links or whatever. Whether that is true I have no idea, and even if it were true, it is not obviously a big deal. In certain parts of the world you can hardly swing a cat without hitting someone rumoured to be a CIA agent. In my case that included a former climbing partner who was full of opinion on weighty topics but as often wrong as right.
Think I might have met him.
Was it the man (who lived in RAK), who announced that "US is gonna carpet bomb the entire Mid East" on Sept 12th 2001? That lead to Solar Gas Turbines (amongst many other US companies) pulling all their Western personnel out?
Announced whilst drunk in the Sharjah Wanders Expat club?
Seriously, I know it wasn't the same fellow. You just reminded me of all the rumours about various loud Yanks I met out there.
It really did happen though.
Egg on face all round and many quietly sn**gering Brits, as the came back one by one over the next couple of weeks...
Nice of them though. I got to stay at my mates villa in Mirdif during his evacuation and my hunt for a new apartment. ;)
And that was disgracefully off topic, I apologise, blame the insomnia...