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the shizzle => shootin' the shit => Topic started by: tomtom on October 29, 2019, 02:38:02 pm

Title: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on October 29, 2019, 02:38:02 pm
As this now seems a given - a split from the EU referendum thread...

My predictions....

1. Tories lose all seats in Scotland to SNP maybe the odd one to labour/lib dems.
2. Tories lose 10-30 seats in the Metropolitan/south/SE to the Lib Dems
3. Tories gain c.20-30 seats in marginal areas where leave was popular

Hung parliament.
Tories about the same +/- 5
Labour -30
Lib Dems +25
SNP + 5
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on October 29, 2019, 02:56:05 pm
Notwithstanding my post on the EU referendum thread, I don't think it's possible to make meaningful calls on numbers until we see how the different parties might campaign.
If the Brexit Party are not allowed to form an unholy alliance with the Tories (probable) then they could put a dint into Labour and Conservative seats and possibly pick up some seats of their own (it seems unreasonable to predict LD gains but not BP). They had Tice on the radio again this morning. Too early in the game to deploy their ultimate weapon - Farage. Once the battle lines are drawn he can enter the fray.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on October 29, 2019, 04:00:48 pm
If the Brexit Party are not allowed to form an unholy alliance with the Tories (probable) then they could put a dint into Labour and Conservative seats and possibly pick up some seats of their own (it seems unreasonable to predict LD gains but not BP). They had Tice on the radio again this morning. Too early in the game to deploy their ultimate weapon - Farage. Once the battle lines are drawn he can enter the fray.

I think Farage is out for himself. He could cut a deal seeing him in some sort of ministerial postion if an alliance is allowed... but I think that would be very unsavoury to many Torys and (as we've seen in the past) the Tory party treat alliances as very much last resort (Lib Dems, DUP..).

So, Farage could campaign on the hard brexit line - which would certainly draw some from the Tory vote. Boris on his deal. Labour on fuck knows what fudge of a deal/no deal/rederendum and Lib Dems on revoke.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on October 29, 2019, 04:07:49 pm
 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-general-election-bill-16-17-year-old-vote-eu-citizen-commons-a9176271.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1572363275 (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-general-election-bill-16-17-year-old-vote-eu-citizen-commons-a9176271.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1572363275)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on October 29, 2019, 08:28:53 pm
And it’s on....
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on October 29, 2019, 09:38:03 pm
First up: encorage as many people as possible to register to vote.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: webbo on October 29, 2019, 09:43:28 pm
The problem with voting is the government always gets in.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on October 29, 2019, 10:08:40 pm
Well the 2017 election worked better than I expected, partly because the young registered in much larger mumbers than normal.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on October 30, 2019, 08:58:38 am
I think the first graph in this page is quite informative...
(it shows thebreakdown of voter intentions by age - in summary - if you're old Tory, as you get younger more chance of labour).

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/29/can-labour-eat-into-projected-58-seat-tory-majority

Theres also a BBC thing from April that suggests that more than half of ALL of Tory voters are aged over 65....

I wonder how the cold december weather will play in to this... old people struggling to get to the polling station vs stubborn old bastards :D
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on October 30, 2019, 09:25:19 am
I'll draw your attention to the betting markets on this - yes, yes I know they called Brexit / Trump wrong, but think they are outliers.

Gov't after 2019 Election

Tory majority 10/11
Tory minority 4/1
Labour minority 5/1
Lab / LD / SNP coalition 11/1
Lab / LD coalition 16/1
Lab majority 20/1
Bar 20/1+

Majority Betting:

Tory majority 5/6
No majority Evs
Labour majority 18/1
Any other party majority 66/1


Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on October 30, 2019, 09:28:37 am
Lab / LD / SNP coalition 11/1 this looks like a steal at those odds!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on October 30, 2019, 09:40:20 am
Tory / Brexit Party coalition is 25/1 while you're there...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on October 30, 2019, 09:57:36 am
I'll draw your attention to the betting markets on this - yes, yes I know they called Brexit / Trump wrong, but think they are outliers.


😬 ‘yes I know they called the last two big major political things wrong, even though they were binary choices’
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: dunnyg on October 30, 2019, 09:58:20 am
Yeah, but what are the odds that they will get it wrong again?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on October 30, 2019, 10:06:26 am
Yeah, but what are the odds that they will get it wrong again?

3T?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on October 30, 2019, 10:17:46 am
How did they get on with the 2017 election?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: galpinos on October 30, 2019, 10:19:53 am
Lab / LD / SNP coalition 11/1 this looks like a steal at those odds!

Jo Swinson says no coalition with Labour?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on October 30, 2019, 10:30:54 am
Yeah, but what are the odds that they will get it wrong again?

I can't see it personally - my reading of those prices is (sadly) what I'd surmised already:

Tories / Boris have laid the groundwork for this election in last few months with all their "people vs. parliament" stuff

Tories have the clearest position on Brext (albeit one I personally disagree with) - expect "Get Brexit Done" to be this year's "Strong And Stable". They're gonna be parroting that shit non-stop till December.

Magic Grandpa is the gift that keeps on giving for the Tories, whether it's his general political persuasion, his complete unwillingness / lack of gumption re: position on Brexit...

Much as I'd like to believe the LD will get a surge, all they've done is split any potential Remain vote









Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on October 30, 2019, 10:48:13 am
Lab / LD / SNP coalition 11/1 this looks like a steal at those odds!

Jo Swinson says no coalition with Labour?

Of course she says that - otherwise the LibDem vote might drift off.. Got to say you plan to win it..

IF the numbers are there for a Lab/Lib/SNP coalition I bet it would happen... who would lead it is another question!!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on October 30, 2019, 11:20:32 am
I wonder what a coalition of Lab and SNP might do to the union? The SNP, for all their many fine qualities, are nationalists whose stated aim is to take Scotland out of the United Kingdom, and a referendum on that will be their price for helping Labour to form a government.

But the SNP's greatest friend in their quest for independence is the Conservative Westminster administration - the polar opposite of Scotland's political leaning. If Labour form a coalition government under Corbyn, that might pull the rug out from under the SNP.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on October 30, 2019, 11:23:50 am
I wonder what a coalition of Lab and SNP might do to the union? The SNP, for all their many fine qualities, are nationalists whose stated aim is to take Scotland out of the United Kingdom, and a referendum on that will be their price for helping Labour to form a government.

But the SNP's greatest friend in their quest for independence is the Conservative Westminster administration - the polar opposite of Scotland's political leaning. If Labour form a coalition government under Corbyn, that might pull the rug out from under the SNP.

I think lab or tory result would see an end to the union. Labour cannot (bar a miracle) get an overall majority - so they would have to form a coalition with SNP - which as you rightly say would lead to IndyRef as one of the prices for Lab power. But depending on Brexit deal might not lead to the ref saying leave..

If Torys win - hard brexit - SNP will ultimately get and IndyRef and probably win it.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Snoops on October 30, 2019, 11:29:37 am





Quote
Much as I'd like to believe the LD will get a surge, all they've done is split any potential Remain vote


I think Corbyn and Labour did that themselves
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on October 30, 2019, 11:53:35 am
Yeah, but what are the odds that they will get it wrong again?

I'd say very high if those numbers are real... get some money on quick.

Labour were much further behind at this stage prior to the 2017 election and the tories won those seats in Scotland, smiled at the demise of the Liberals and still ended up in minority and needed to do a deal with the DUP.

Being 10% behind in the polls is almost irrelevant in the politics we have today. I'm not saying Boris can't win,  I'm saying I see a hung Parliament as the most likely outcome and as such his chances of a majority are way overstated. Too many progressives are depressing themselves unnecessarily when they need to be gearing up to help campaigns. For a reasonable majority (given very likely scottish losses and english losses to Lib Dems) he needs to take 40 odd seats off mainly popular local Labour MPs in the north and midlands  (as fortunately it seems the attempts of Momentun to force reselections of quite a few of those same MPs, as a gift to Boris, is now over).

If Brexit do just 5% better than UKIP in 2017 in northern seats that are tory- Labour two way seats (with no previous Lib Dem showing) then tories need to get an equivalent of a 9.5% swing to take those marginal seats to win the 40 odd  they need for a working majority. In a more normal election Green and Lib Dem votes would grow in such seats but I don't see that this time given what we are facing and that the the Lib Dems, Greens and Pliad  are already working on a pact.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/election-pact-pursued-by-lib-dems-plaid-cymru-and-greens

My slightly higher optimism than some on the progressive side is based on the following: trusting more of the british people to see through plain bullshit in general elections; expecting Corbyn to again campaign better than predicted; that the tories said brexit would be done by Halloween, no ifs, no buts; that the tories have lost any sense of fiscal responsibility... their strongest anti Corbyn weapon; that the tory cabinet are full of far right accident prone ministers with major skeletons...easy targets for a smart Labour campaign; big non brexit issues like health, education, council services, favour Labour. Biggest of all: that a clear Labour majority looks to be in miracle terrain at present so swing voters worried about Corbyn can hold their nose and vote Labour as he will be forced to compromise in any form of minority government.

I'm not alone in thinking a tory majority will be hard work.. this is what John Curtice says

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SebzH269-qE


Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Snoops on October 30, 2019, 12:08:14 pm
Quote
Biggest of all: that a clear Labour majority looks to be in miracle terrain at present so swing voters worried about Corbyn can hold their nose and vote Labour as he will be forced to compromise in any form of minority government.

Not sure this stands up. Unfortunately he was anti-EU originally, unelectable in 2017, and the last 2 years have made him even more unelectable. That and the internal labour division and dithering , is the main reason the idiot Boris and his loony ERG goons, are so far ahead.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on October 30, 2019, 12:24:55 pm
The tories are currently about 10% less far ahead in the polls than when the election was called in 2017 and a few percent less than the final pre-election polls.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/18/theresa-may-calls-for-general-election-in-bid-to-secure-brexit-mandate

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/07/tories-on-12-point-lead-over-labour-in-final-pre-election-poll

Some more analysis:
https://www.ft.com/content/bb027040-fa65-11e9-98fd-4d6c20050229
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on October 30, 2019, 01:37:50 pm
I'm pretty sceptical about detailed polling at the moment, give it a few weeks for politicians to either manage to inspire voters or screw up royally and things might be a little more predictable. At the moment, the Brexit party is an unknown quantity as they're yet to decide which seats to contest. I think the Labour leave seats will be a big ask for the Conservative party as they're a really toxic brand in so many areas, but that doesn't mean they won't manage it.
I'm struggling to see that this election will be good for Labour, although if you are a centrist lefty, then this would almost certainly result in Corbyn being replaced, which would probably improve their future electoral prospects
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on October 30, 2019, 01:53:23 pm
But you'll have to live through 5 years of very right wing BoJo Tory government while that happens. Not much of a silver lining that.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on October 30, 2019, 01:55:36 pm
The tories are currently about 10% less far ahead in the polls than when the election was called in 2017 and a few percent less than the final pre-election polls.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/18/theresa-may-calls-for-general-election-in-bid-to-secure-brexit-mandate

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/07/tories-on-12-point-lead-over-labour-in-final-pre-election-poll

Some more analysis:
https://www.ft.com/content/bb027040-fa65-11e9-98fd-4d6c20050229

But this is not the 2017 election. As I recall, that election had a reasonable focus on domestic issues, while one thing that pundits seem to agree on is that this will be a Brexit election - an arena in which Labour are significantly weaker. Labour was also up against a shockingly bad campaigner (remember May didn't even have the charisma to show up to the leader's debate). Johnson brings all the advantages of populism and combines it with the long term supposed seriousness and credibility of the Tory party. He would be tough to beat with a Labour leader who wasn't weighed down by the baggage of anti-semitism and policies that are seen as communist by much of middle England.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: sdm on October 30, 2019, 02:13:06 pm
I expect Johnson will Dodge as many TV election debates as he can get away with too. He's been pretty good at making sure he's unavailable for PMQs. When he has taken part in debates, interviews or unscripted speeches, he has struggled to string 2 content sentences together.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: SA Chris on October 30, 2019, 02:33:50 pm
Never did Donald Trump any harm.

Wait....
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: T_B on October 30, 2019, 02:44:31 pm

I'm struggling to see that this election will be good for Labour, although if you are a centrist lefty, then this would almost certainly result in Corbyn being replaced, which would probably improve their future electoral prospects

Yes, that's the only positive outcome I can see.

As to poles, I think more voters than ever will lie about how they intend to vote.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: SA Chris on October 30, 2019, 02:55:59 pm

As to poles, I think more voters than ever will lie about how they intend to vote.

I thought EU Citizen weren't allowed to vote?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on October 30, 2019, 03:13:49 pm

I'm struggling to see that this election will be good for Labour, although if you are a centrist lefty, then this would almost certainly result in Corbyn being replaced, which would probably improve their future electoral prospects

Yes, that's the only positive outcome I can see.


I wouldn't be so sure about Corbyn falling on his sword. He's stubborn and might try to hang on. For how long depends on the magnitude of his defeat. Even when he goes, his replacement will be decided by the party. Who knows what the membership is like now, but if it's remained much the same as that which elected Corbyn then we'll end up with another old schooler and all the problems that go with that.

However. Momentum do seem to be slowing down - they tried and failed to de-select two MPs recently. And there is less Corbyn fervour around now. I think his appeal has become less broad. There might be lots of people who were motivated to join the party and vote for him who now lose interest, allowing a more moderate candidate to take over.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on October 30, 2019, 05:03:46 pm
I'm fully aware it's not 2017. However all the points indicating the tories will do better (eg: BJ a better campaigner than May, Corbyn greatly weakened) are countered by other, possibly stronger, factors (resurgent Lib dems, loss of Scottish tory seats, a PM who is a plain liar who can't deliver, leading a party where power is with the ERG loons with the Brexit party on their heels). Prof Curtice is pretty smart and incredibly well informed and says the same just from polling data, ignoring any campaign changes... 100+ MPs likely not from the two main parties, which makes any majority hard and Boris needs that (as despite what McDonnell says the Lib Dems won't deal with him) whereas Labour doesn't need a majority to be in government as the possibilities of deals exist.

Those who won't risk supporting Labour in key marginals because they are annoyed with Corbyn need to seriously ask themselves why they would risk bringing to power a highly dangerous deregulating tory party, led by a dishonest egotist, at massive expense to the economy, with EU regulatory checks for workers rights and ecological protections removed. What damage could Corbyn really do in a minority government (the best it looks like he can realistically achieve) that comes even close to that?

I'd add that popularism may have worked in the aged tory party membership but most swing voter types and intelligent typical tory voting people I know just don't buy such crap... they will listen to the likes of Hammond and Clarke (and will I think often vote Lib Dem against ERG tory candiadates to avoid a highly damaging hard brexit). Too many progressives are currently assuming the voters will let them down, whereas the best outcome will be from fighting hard to ensure we get the best outcome we can (a progressive alliance for a Labour minority government that will probably go for a referendum on a choice of remain or a soft brexit, alongside trying to rebuild the damage done by austerity).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on October 30, 2019, 08:35:02 pm
I wonder if the Tory faithful, are paying attention to who’s quitting the party and standing down?
Even serving cabinet ministers.
Aka: people who know who and what those in charge actually are.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on October 30, 2019, 08:43:45 pm
I wonder if the Tory faithful, are paying attention to who’s quitting the party and standing down?
Even serving cabinet ministers.
Aka: people who know who and what those in charge actually are.

As has happened to the Labour Party over the last 2-3 years....
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nigel on October 30, 2019, 09:26:05 pm
I wouldn't be so sure about Corbyn falling on his sword. He's stubborn and might try to hang on. For how long depends on the magnitude of his defeat. Even when he goes, his replacement will be decided by the party. Who knows what the membership is like now, but if it's remained much the same as that which elected Corbyn then we'll end up with another old schooler and all the problems that go with that.

I'm reading your above point as being, effectively, that the Labour party members are either always wrong / sometimes wrong / not "proper" labour / shouldn't be allowed / trusted to pick the leader. Almost like you wish Labour was, frankly, a completely different party? These do already exist if you want that.

 My guess would be that Labour will do a lot better than current assumptions in the upcoming election so Corbyn will probably still be in place. Alternatively the present polls will be right (ha! Chinny reckon emoji) and maybe you'll get your centrist leader of the opposition for 5 years while Johnson and the gang go mad.



Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nigel on October 30, 2019, 09:47:44 pm
So, Farage could campaign on the hard brexit line - which would certainly draw some from the Tory vote. Boris on his deal. Labour on fuck knows what fudge of a deal/no deal/rederendum and Lib Dems on revoke.

Farage will definitely campaign on no deal, no "could" about it!

I suspect Boris will campaign on his deal yes, but along with no deal being back on the table, however that remains to be seen. There will be many voices in his party, particularly in the grassroots and maybe increasingly in any new intake of MPs, who will call for this I suspect.

Labour will campaign on their policy of negotiating a soft Brexit deal (customs union and regulatory alignment to single market) then putting this vs remain in a 2nd ref. No deal is not any part of it, nor is fudge. It really is not a complicated or opaque proposition and I find it baffling that people seem to claim it is.

Lib Dems will campaign on revoke and remain and no doubt they mean it, but obviously this is not a serious policy proposition as they will not get a majority so it will not be implemented. Effectively they are campaigning to soften the policy of any prospective coalition partner.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on October 30, 2019, 10:15:11 pm
The tories have been laying waste to this country since 2010. Presently, under our current system, the only party capable of winning a majority and getting rid of them is Labour.
Labour win elections when they campaign around the centre ground. England is jam packed with small c conservatives who struggle to vote for Corbyn. Corbyn's voice has an important place in UK politics, but when it is the principle voice of opposition we get the Conservatives.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nigel on October 30, 2019, 10:47:27 pm
The tories have been laying waste to this country since 2010. Presently, under our current system, the only party capable of winning a majority and getting rid of them is Labour.
Labour win elections when they campaign around the centre ground. England is jam packed with small c conservatives who struggle to vote for Corbyn. Corbyn's voice has an important place in UK politics, but when it is the principle voice of opposition we get the Conservatives.

That is the received wisdom certainly.

Nearly 13 million people voted for Corbyn's Labour in 2017. 13.6 million for the tories. Total 32 million voters. Unless the electorate has been swapped in the past two years I'm not sure England is as "jam-packed with small c conservatives" as you claim. And playing devil's advocate for a bit, if that claim is true, then why on earth are "small c conservatives" going to be nailed on to vote for the Boris rather than Corbyn? Brexit on Boris's terms with all the attendant damage to the union and the economy is hardly small c.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Somebody's Fool on October 30, 2019, 11:01:39 pm
Blair won elections because he could appeal to small c England whilst taking for granted traditional Labour voters because, in his words, ‘they had nowhere else to go.’

Once old Labour voters got wise to the fact New Labour was essentially Thatcherism, they just stopped voting and the result was the Brown and Milliband elections.

To claim Labour win elections when they’re campaigning on the centre ground is quite clearly not true, and hasn’t been since 2005. And they only just scraped a win then. .
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on October 30, 2019, 11:53:18 pm
The tories have been laying waste to this country since 2010. Presently, under our current system, the only party capable of winning a majority and getting rid of them is Labour.
Labour win elections when they campaign around the centre ground. England is jam packed with small c conservatives who struggle to vote for Corbyn. Corbyn's voice has an important place in UK politics, but when it is the principle voice of opposition we get the Conservatives.

That is the received wisdom certainly.

Nearly 13 million people voted for Corbyn's Labour in 2017. 13.6 million for the tories. Total 32 million voters. Unless the electorate has been swapped in the past two years I'm not sure England is as "jam-packed with small c conservatives" as you claim. And playing devil's advocate for a bit, if that claim is true, then why on earth are "small c conservatives" going to be nailed on to vote for the Boris rather than Corbyn? Brexit on Boris's terms with all the attendant damage to the union and the economy is hardly small c.

No, but most people aren't terribly politically engaged.  What i hear from people I work with is 'I'm sick of Brexit,  boris seems to be trying and parliament is stopping him'. I don't remotely agree with them, but I think most people will now regard Corbyn as a loser or an antisemite or both. Many will vote Brexit party as they hate the Conservatives without any clear reasoning,  and won't have the first clue who Jo Swinson is. 

Once old Labour voters got wise to the fact New Labour was essentially Thatcherism, they just stopped voting and the result was the Brown and Milliband elections.

There are so many wrong things about this, starting with the reasons for Gordon Brown losing: 2008 financial crisis  plus him being uncharismatic and a poor campaigner perhaps?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Somebody's Fool on October 31, 2019, 06:46:11 am
The point I was trying to make was that once voter apathy set in in Labour heartlands it’s almost impossible to win them back with more of the same.

Financial deregulation, continuing privatisation and neglecting unions will have alienated a lot of the old Labour movement/voters.


Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on October 31, 2019, 07:44:15 am
Thought these numbers were interesting

Quote
In 2017, there were 8.2 million registered to vote by post - 18% of the electorate.

Turnout among people who complete a form and put it in the post box was 85% compared with 66% who could only vote at a polling station.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on October 31, 2019, 07:54:10 am
The tories have been laying waste to this country since 2010. Presently, under our current system, the only party capable of winning a majority and getting rid of them is Labour.
Labour win elections when they campaign around the centre ground. England is jam packed with small c conservatives who struggle to vote for Corbyn. Corbyn's voice has an important place in UK politics, but when it is the principle voice of opposition we get the Conservatives.

That is the received wisdom certainly.

Nearly 13 million people voted for Corbyn's Labour in 2017. 13.6 million for the tories. Total 32 million voters. Unless the electorate has been swapped in the past two years I'm not sure England is as "jam-packed with small c conservatives" as you claim. And playing devil's advocate for a bit, if that claim is true, then why on earth are "small c conservatives" going to be nailed on to vote for the Boris rather than Corbyn? Brexit on Boris's terms with all the attendant damage to the union and the economy is hardly small c.

No, but most people aren't terribly politically engaged.  What i hear from people I work with is 'I'm sick of Brexit,  boris seems to be trying and parliament is stopping him'. I don't remotely agree with them, but I think most people will now regard Corbyn as a loser or an antisemite or both. Many will vote Brexit party as they hate the Conservatives without any clear reasoning,  and won't have the first clue who Jo Swinson is. 



This.

Unless your echo chamber is uniquely (or predominantly) Labour supporters, how can you not see this. I hear a huge amount of vitriol against Corbyn from what you’d call “small c’s”. He’s deeply unpopular.
Boris carries more disengaged voters (headline readers) because he at least has a reputation as “jolly”.

Like it or lump it, presentation trumps substance with a massive swathe of the population.
Many won’t see the strings, the cracked and peeling paint of the set or the dirty theatre floor; as long as the puppet is bright enough and the music catchy.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on October 31, 2019, 09:55:28 am
The point I was trying to make was that once voter apathy set in in Labour heartlands it’s almost impossible to win them back with more of the same.

Financial deregulation, continuing privatisation and neglecting unions will have alienated a lot of the old Labour movement/voters.

Fair enough,  that's considerably more balanced, I think you have a point there, but Brown and Milliband were in no way Thatcherites
The tories have been laying waste to this country since 2010. Presently, under our current system, the only party capable of winning a majority and getting rid of them is Labour.
Labour win elections when they campaign around the centre ground. England is jam packed with small c conservatives who struggle to vote for Corbyn. Corbyn's voice has an important place in UK politics, but when it is the principle voice of opposition we get the Conservatives.

That is the received wisdom certainly.

Nearly 13 million people voted for Corbyn's Labour in 2017. 13.6 million for the tories. Total 32 million voters. Unless the electorate has been swapped in the past two years I'm not sure England is as "jam-packed with small c conservatives" as you claim. And playing devil's advocate for a bit, if that claim is true, then why on earth are "small c conservatives" going to be nailed on to vote for the Boris rather than Corbyn? Brexit on Boris's terms with all the attendant damage to the union and the economy is hardly small c.

No, but most people aren't terribly politically engaged.  What i hear from people I work with is 'I'm sick of Brexit,  boris seems to be trying and parliament is stopping him'. I don't remotely agree with them, but I think most people will now regard Corbyn as a loser or an antisemite or both. Many will vote Brexit party as they hate the Conservatives without any clear reasoning,  and won't have the first clue who Jo Swinson is. 



This.

Unless your echo chamber is uniquely (or predominantly) Labour supporters, how can you not see this. I hear a huge amount of vitriol against Corbyn from what you’d call “small c’s”. He’s deeply unpopular.
Boris carries more disengaged voters (headline readers) because he at least has a reputation as “jolly”.

Like it or lump it, presentation trumps substance with a massive swathe of the population.
Many won’t see the strings, the cracked and peeling paint of the set or the dirty theatre floor; as long as the puppet is bright enough and the music catchy.

Both Johnson and Corbyn seem to have turned their parties into intolerant echo chambers, largely headed by very second rate MPs.  The list of quitting MPs would make a far better front bench than either of the main parties. It's a depressing prospect and I wish I could see some political light at the end of the tunnel.  IDS quoted today as saying that the conservative party are the Brexit party now is sickening,  and might hopefully lose him a lot of votes. Diane Abbot was given a rather soft ball interview on the today programme this morning,  and still didn't sound as though she really had a firm grasp of any issues.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: SA Chris on October 31, 2019, 10:06:47 am

Many won’t see the strings, the cracked and peeling paint of the set or the dirty theatre floor; as long as the puppet is bright enough and the music catchy.

Sadly too damned true, especially if the reviews tell you how great the show is.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on October 31, 2019, 11:45:55 am
Both Johnson and Corbyn seem to have turned their parties into intolerant echo chambers, largely headed by very second rate MPs.  The list of quitting MPs would make a far better front bench than either of the main parties.

I know you are not going this far, but I think it’s important to highlight that there are still a lot of very able and committed public servants amongst sitting MPs. The roll call at cabinet  is very depressing, I agree, for the reason you mentioned.

You also said Toby that people may regard Corbyn as an antisemite. I’d suggest that is because he really, really, is. I have held that view for a number of years, long before the headlines started to grow. A leader who condones antisemitism, perpetuates antisemitic tropes and tolerates the vilest of abuse towards Jewish party members with just a slap on the wrist for the perpetrators is an antisemite whether he recognises that in himself or not. Racists running the anti racist party- who’d have thought it?


Once old Labour voters got wise to the fact New Labour was essentially Thatcherism,

Compare the records and this does not really stand up. Dismay at some elements of Thatcherism fused with centre-left policies I get; but Thatcherism, no.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on October 31, 2019, 01:21:12 pm
I think the Tory party may have a big problem with their lurch to the right. In Cameron’s days there was at least a veneer of people who seemed to care about social policy and inequality. Now there are none. The Cabinet is full of hard brexit Spartans or wannabe Spartans. ERG nutters are now to the fore rather than the loony fringe.

They have now vacated a large chunk of the centre ground. Who picks this up who knows?

As a LP member and anti-corbynista (or non?) it feels as if the party and the country have got used to him - and the shouty grey man isn’t quite as offpiting as he once was. I dunno - maybe I’ve got bored of getting annoyed with him.

The LP brexit stance at first seems confusing - but it does offer a get out for remain and soft leave voters. That may be a stroke of genius or (more likely) ineffective....
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on October 31, 2019, 01:27:50 pm
Can we please not use the word Spartans for these people, or any other words they’ve chosen themselves to try and sound cool.

This, along with the continuous quoting of ‘No. 10 sources’ When they brief total bullshit has totally put me off Twitter and the news in general!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Snoops on October 31, 2019, 01:39:17 pm


As a LP member and anti-corbynista (or non?) it feels as if the party and the country have got used to him - and the shouty grey man isn’t quite as offpiting as he once was. I dunno - maybe I’ve got bored of getting annoyed with him.

The LP brexit stance at first seems confusing - but it does offer a get out for remain and soft leave voters. That may be a stroke of genius or (more likely) ineffective....

Sorry, it really comes down to Corbyn.
100% of all the centrist and tory voters I know, who didn't and don't want Brexit (and there is a lot of them),  will never vote for Corbyn.
Thats why we are doomed.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on October 31, 2019, 02:24:38 pm
Can we please not use the word Spartans for these people, or any other words they’ve chosen themselves to try and sound cool.

This, along with the continuous quoting of ‘No. 10 sources’ When they brief total bullshit has totally put me off Twitter and the news in general!

On that note...

Is there no way we could get Kay Burley into No10?

I’d vote for Jess Philips as labour leader. Good socialst credentials for the left, with a finely tuned bullshit detector and weapons grade sarcasm deployment system.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: i.munro on October 31, 2019, 02:39:54 pm
Blair won elections because he could appeal to small c England whilst taking for granted traditional Labour voters because, in his words, ‘they had nowhere else to go.’

Once old Labour voters got wise to the fact New Labour was essentially Thatcherism, they just stopped voting and the result was the Brown and Milliband elections.

To claim Labour win elections when they’re campaigning on the centre ground is quite clearly not true, and hasn’t been since 2005. And they only just scraped a win then. .

They didn't just stop voting - some voted LD in 2010 which is what got us into the current situation.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: galpinos on October 31, 2019, 02:43:19 pm
When they brief total bullshit has totally put me off Twitter and the news in general!

I'm quite enjoying it at the moment. Highlights:

Matt Hancock "all across the country, from Barnsley to Bassetlaw, from Wigan to Warrington"
Kay Burley: "That's not very far Matt!"

Richard Burgon getting cut down by Kay Burgeon twice for spouting bullshit

Susanna Reid skewering Matt Hancock on austerity and the 20000 more cops

Catherine West accusing Jonathan Bartley of mansplaining but using it incorrectly therby setting the trap should he attempt to explain to her what it actually meant whilst being interviewed by Adam Boulton who appeared to be pretending to hold a mic.

Edit, forgot Jess Phillips on Bercow:

At PMQs she praises Bercow, and notes his kids are in the public gallery: "I know he takes his responsibilities as a parent very seriously."

[pause]

"And now, to the prime minister."
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on October 31, 2019, 02:54:23 pm
Can we please not use the word Spartans for these people, or any other words they’ve chosen themselves to try and sound cool.

This, along with the continuous quoting of ‘No. 10 sources’ When they brief total bullshit has totally put me off Twitter and the news in general!

Ha! Sorry Tim if that niggles - I did call them nutters in the same paragraph... I think Spartans is fucking hilarious - they think it’s serious and makes them sound cool - when they’re just a load of grey old men with out of touch ideas 😂
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on October 31, 2019, 03:12:57 pm
Blair won elections because he could appeal to small c England whilst taking for granted traditional Labour voters because, in his words, ‘they had nowhere else to go.’

Once old Labour voters got wise to the fact New Labour was essentially Thatcherism, they just stopped voting and the result was the Brown and Milliband elections.

To claim Labour win elections when they’re campaigning on the centre ground is quite clearly not true, and hasn’t been since 2005. And they only just scraped a win then. .

They didn't just stop voting - some voted LD in 2010 which is what got us into the current situation.

And they will again, because Labour and it’s policies  don’t  represent them or their concerns and needs.

You can shout as loud as want, that the more left leaning policies are “good for all” or “for the needs of the many” etc, but they won’t believe you.

Because, they’re politically centrist. Derided by both Left and Right wingers and thoroughly pissed off with both. They want stability, compromise and a fair balance between capitalism and social responsibility.
Actually, they want “fair”.

Fair taxation, not trickle down crap, nor punitive bourgeoisie bashing.

Fair treatment for those in need, not stamping on the weak or unfortunate, nor propping up the grifters and the lazy.   

Fair access to education, not underfunded schools or massive , exploitative student loans; nor lumped in to “one size fits all”, “we’re-all-the-same-and-nobody-must -compete-with-anyone-else-or-be-special-and-sports-day-is-an-elitist-bourgeoisi-activity” type collective nurseries for the under 18s.

Fair access to utilities, without feeding massive profit margins of  monopolistic corporations, nor some “public” bureaucracy of uniformed jobsworths and pen pushing demagogues.

Fair.

Not cloud-cuckoo  political theories.

Not elitist oligarchies.

Not extreme shit that never works.

Not lurching from Left to Right

Not blaming “the last lot” for every failure of the current government’s ideologically drive shit, that anyone with half a brain could see was going to fail.

Social Democracy.

Bloody hard to find here, between the Eton Toffs and pig fucking wankers and the “Right on!” Citizen-fucking-Smith, Che Guevara wannabes.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on October 31, 2019, 03:28:00 pm


As a LP member and anti-corbynista (or non?) it feels as if the party and the country have got used to him - and the shouty grey man isn’t quite as offpiting as he once was. I dunno - maybe I’ve got bored of getting annoyed with him.

The LP brexit stance at first seems confusing - but it does offer a get out for remain and soft leave voters. That may be a stroke of genius or (more likely) ineffective....

Sorry, it really comes down to Corbyn.
100% of all the centrist and tory voters I know, who didn't and don't want Brexit (and there is a lot of them),  will never vote for Corbyn.
Thats why we are doomed.

Prof Curtise says the opposite.  Remain voters and anti Corbyn voters are needed in the S and SW to provide his Lib Dem gains that block a possible tory majority.  If this happens all Labour need to do is to hold losses below 40 seats in the leave seats in the north, midlands and Wales.  I agree Corbyn is unpopular but like Nigel I dont think this is so significant or has changed so much from 2017 that we are going to see 40+, mostly moderate, popular and good-constituency-working, Labour MPs lose all these seats to prospectively the most right wing tory government I've seen (Thatcher seemed terrible at the time but the damage lined up in this brexit plan and a cabinet of deregulators I think will make her seem tame).  Rampant Corbynism cannot operate without support in a minority government, so only the good bits that can be agreed with the more centrist partners will happen. I suspect any Labour minority government will only hang on until soft brexit or remain is decided and implemented. In the next election the tory party will have to dump the ERG loons and reinvent its (so called) caring image again.

Again I ask: what progressive voter would risk bringing in a working majority for the most reactionary tory goverment ever because of what Corbyn might do (when by all calculations a minority government is his best likely result and his hands will be tied)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on October 31, 2019, 03:41:32 pm

...between the Eton Toffs and pig fucking wankers and the “Right on!” Citizen-fucking-Smith, Che Guevara wannabes.

I share you anger but thats not the choice we have. The choice is a reactionary tory majority (a small chance of back where we are now) and a Labour minority.  Anger aside, the last option is by far the best. To achieve that we need Lib Dem gains in the S and SW (helped if normal Labour supporters vote Lib  Dem in marginals as they are annoyed with Corbyn)  and in the north and midlands enough Labour holds  (helped by the likes of you and me holding our nose and voting for what will normally be a pretty good moderate Labour MP). Something else that will help us persuading people just how dangerous a tory majority will be and to vote (and before that, to register to vote in the case of too many of the young)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on October 31, 2019, 03:46:24 pm
Yup. What offwidth said.

We shouldn’t forget that we’ve not brexited yet - something to be celebrated imho...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Durbs on October 31, 2019, 05:21:40 pm
Here's a good example of the madness.

My local area (Epsom & Ewell - reprazent!), 2017 (and every year since time began I expect):
Tory: 60%
Lab: 25%
LD: 12%
Green: 3%

So a very very Tory majority. Yet we also voted to remain 52:48.

Which suggests a significant number of those Tory voters are remainers... But I doubt we'll get 52% of the area voting to for Lib Dem, or even Labour and their odd in/out hybrid.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on October 31, 2019, 05:29:14 pm
I grew up next to there Durbs (ashtead/leatherhead) and nothing could crowbar them Out. My parents had to get the newsagent to order in a guardian...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: SA Chris on October 31, 2019, 05:41:46 pm
Lol, my aunt and uncle live in Ashtead, and I lved there for a bit, they get their Guardian from the Newsagent next to Volkspeed on Woodfield Lane. Used to drink at the Brewery on Epsom Road.

Tory home county homeland.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Snoops on October 31, 2019, 07:14:23 pm


As a LP member and anti-corbynista (or non?) it feels as if the party and the country have got used to him - and the shouty grey man isn’t quite as offpiting as he once was. I dunno - maybe I’ve got bored of getting annoyed with him.

The LP brexit stance at first seems confusing - but it does offer a get out for remain and soft leave voters. That may be a stroke of genius or (more likely) ineffective....

Sorry, it really comes down to Corbyn.
100% of all the centrist and tory voters I know, who didn't and don't want Brexit (and there is a lot of them),  will never vote for Corbyn.
Thats why we are doomed.

Prof Curtise says the opposite.  Remain voters and anti Corbyn voters are needed in the S and SW to provide his Lib Dem gains that block a possible tory majority.  If this happens all Labour need to do is to hold losses below 40 seats in the leave seats in the north, midlands and Wales.  I agree Corbyn is unpopular but like Nigel I dont think this is so significant or has changed so much from 2017 that we are going to see 40+, mostly moderate, popular and good-constituency-working, Labour MPs lose all these seats to prospectively the most right wing tory government I've seen (Thatcher seemed terrible at the time but the damage lined up in this brexit plan and a cabinet of deregulators I think will make her seem tame).  Rampant Corbynism cannot operate without support in a minority government, so only the good bits that can be agreed with the more centrist partners will happen. I suspect any Labour minority government will only hang on until soft brexit or remain is decided and implemented. In the next election the tory party will have to dump the ERG loons and reinvent its (so called) caring image again.

Again I ask: what progressive voter would risk bringing in a working majority for the most reactionary tory goverment ever because of what Corbyn might do (when by all calculations a minority government is his best likely result and his hands will be tied)

Good luck with that. I’m sure your right in the details but the majority don’t think that hard.
It’s all about image and he’s more unpopular than Michael Foot ever was.

For sure he’ll get kicked after this and labour will be back in power 5 years but the pisser is we will be little England by then.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on October 31, 2019, 09:10:54 pm
In reply to Jonathan  (I think!):
I hold the same opinion on Corbyn,  I just wanted to try to avoid personalizing it.  Its possibly the main reason I couldn't vote labour. 

In reply to others:
I do think there are still  dozens of brilliant MPs,  on all sides.  Rachel Reeves, Jess Phillips,  Sarah Wollaston, Nick Boles, Phillip Hammond; unfortunately the cabinet is full of incompetents.  I'd say that  Sajid Javid certainly seems competent,  but his association with Johnson has turned to subjugation to the latter's vein of idiot populism.  Before,  he seemed a competent,  sensible MP with whom I did not agree.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on October 31, 2019, 10:23:44 pm





Good luck with that. I’m sure your right in the details but the majority don’t think that hard.
It’s all about image and he’s more unpopular than Michael Foot ever was.

For sure he’ll get kicked after this and labour will be back in power 5 years but the pisser is we will be little England by then.

It really doesn't need that much luck if its very likely according to one of our most eminent polsters, Prof Curtise. Those northen and midland seats, with mainly very good Labour MPs, that the conservatives need to win (mainly leave majority voting), have a lot of climbers and we can help. If everyone on the progressive side gives up in a fit of unjustified political depression we will need luck.

Another link with someone discussing why:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1189646531617574913.html

Plus a quote from that link:  "Prof Curtice predicted the 2017 hung Parl. He leads WhatUkThinks poll of polls and analysis of the National Census.

They recommend Best for Britain for info for tactical voting (Gina Millars site). https://mobile.twitter.com/BestForBritain
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on October 31, 2019, 11:15:07 pm
Hi Toby, (yes), likewise I don’t think it’s all down to Corbyn, he is merely the most public figure in a leadership group comprising Murphy, Milne, McCluskey and others. I generally give McDonnell more credit. The main clique is leading the party down a destructive road, and a paranoid and controlling one at that. ‘A new kind of politics’ indeed.

But it’s on his watch, his responsibility, so he can own it. It’s a disgrace.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Duma on October 31, 2019, 11:42:59 pm
They recommend Best for Britain for info for tactical voting (Gina Millars site). https://mobile.twitter.com/BestForBritain

what, this best for britain???

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/tactical-voting-could-deliver-remain-victory-in-election-study

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 01, 2019, 05:29:18 am
Yes that person recommend that and although its new I think it might improve faster than some others, but the site is explicitly pro remain, so will probably recommend against moderately pro brexit Labour MPs in marginals, some of which I personally I might support. As I said above.we need to wait a bit and use a few of the best.

I think they might be right on Chuka and irrespective of their algorithm are sending a bad message on Emma, given what she has said. Sam Grimah shouldn't be standing against such a pro remain progressive MP.

http://emmadentcoadmp.uk/brexit/
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 01, 2019, 08:35:14 am
Hi Toby, (yes), likewise I don’t think it’s all down to Corbyn, he is merely the most public figure in a leadership group comprising Murphy, Milne, McCluskey and others. I generally give McDonnell more credit. The main clique is leading the party down a destructive road, and a paranoid and controlling one at that. ‘A new kind of politics’ indeed.

But it’s on his watch, his responsibility, so he can own it. It’s a disgrace.

Quite a good article this morning by Phillip Collins in the Times, essentially saying that for people who voted remain but reluctantly accept that leaving in some form is imperative there is noone to vote for. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/i-cant-in-all-conscience-vote-for-any-of-them-2rrcmx75x?shareToken=c6309310b257b9af0f4b49535e367c35

He cites antisemitism as an absolute barrier to him voting Labour.  It particularly irks me because I think they have many good things to say, but I couldn't vote for their attitude on this issue.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Durbs on November 01, 2019, 09:25:16 am
Lol, my aunt and uncle live in Ashtead, and I lved there for a bit, they get their Guardian from the Newsagent next to Volkspeed on Woodfield Lane. Used to drink at the Brewery on Epsom Road.

Tory home county homeland.

Ah yes - not a bad pub, prefer the Woodman (both Ember Inns so a tad boring).
My eldest has just started at the Greville (We're on the Wells so straddle Epsom/Ashtead border).


Even more depressing is our local MP is Chris Grayling who is utterly incompetent yet always gets re-elected. So frustrating how tribal it is..
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 01, 2019, 09:27:30 am
Ha! I went to Grenville!! #smallworld
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 01, 2019, 09:55:05 am
The calls to vote tactically from some very big names in the political establisment is so galling. It's an outright recognition of the disenfranchisement of hundreds of thousands of people who's votes are thrown in the bin because they vote against the tide in a safe seat, or who are compelled to support a party they would prefer not to because they are the least worst option.

A few short years ago we were all told that an alternative vote system was simply too complex to understand; now we are told to check back through the voting history of constituency, weigh up the odds, and vote for the person who we hope that everyone else will agree is the most likely person to be able to challenge the person we collectively don't like.

Imagine if people had the freedome to vote for whoever they chose? Politicians rabbit on about how to "unite the country". Maybe the first step could be having a voting system that punishes polarisation.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: SA Chris on November 01, 2019, 10:31:59 am

Ah yes - not a bad pub, prefer the Woodman (both Ember Inns so a tad boring).
My eldest has just started at the Greville (We're on the Wells so straddle Epsom/Ashtead border).

Even more depressing is our local MP is Chris Grayling who is utterly incompetent yet always gets re-elected. So frustrating how tribal it is..

I liked the Leg as well. my Uncle was a teacher at Thurfield for many years. Anyway, apologies for OT, but kind of on topic they detest Grayling.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 01, 2019, 11:30:26 am
Given that the Cons are committed to “getting Brexit done” and in a pretty hard manner, at that; does Farage’s decision to fight every seat and set himself in opposition to the Cons, strike anyone else as a deliberate attempt to derail Brexit?
It certainly doesn’t seem like the way to “get it done” to me.

He’s a canny operator though and I’m sure he’s got a plan to make as much personal gain as humanly possible from this. So, I’m assuming he sees the Cons in a much weaker position than the polls would suggest and reckons he can pinch enough votes/seats to force them into seeking a deal with him.

He might be a tosser, but he knows his Gammon.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nutty on November 01, 2019, 11:55:32 am
The calls to vote tactically from some very big names in the political establisment is so galling. It's an outright recognition of the disenfranchisement of hundreds of thousands of people who's votes are thrown in the bin because they vote against the tide in a safe seat, or who are compelled to support a party they would prefer not to because they are the least worst option.

A few short years ago we were all told that an alternative vote system was simply too complex to understand; now we are told to check back through the voting history of constituency, weigh up the odds, and vote for the person who we hope that everyone else will agree is the most likely person to be able to challenge the person we collectively don't like.

Imagine if people had the freedome to vote for whoever they chose? Politicians rabbit on about how to "unite the country". Maybe the first step could be having a voting system that punishes polarisation.

Most of my frustrations with politics in this country boil down to 'because FPTP is shit'.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on November 01, 2019, 12:13:38 pm
Given that the Cons are committed to “getting Brexit done” and in a pretty hard manner, at that; does Farage’s decision to fight every seat and set himself in opposition to the Cons, strike anyone else as a deliberate attempt to derail Brexit?
It certainly doesn’t seem like the way to “get it done” to me.

He’s a canny operator though and I’m sure he’s got a plan to make as much personal gain as humanly possible from this.

No, but it may be the way to scare the Torres into electoral pacts about which party contests which seats, and so for him to get what he craves: a seat in parliament.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on November 01, 2019, 12:16:49 pm
I like how the current Brexit deal, a hard Brexit by any measure is now ‘Brexit in name only’ for Farage. Goalposts of all sorts seem to shift constantly at the moment!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: SA Chris on November 01, 2019, 12:23:48 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/31/trump-says-johnson-and-farage-could-form-unstoppable-force

Sorely Trump's endorsement is reason enough to avoid like the plague?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 01, 2019, 01:37:32 pm
I like how the current Brexit deal, a hard Brexit by any measure is now ‘Brexit in name only’ for Farage. Goalposts of all sorts seem to shift constantly at the moment!

Amazing to see now Farage has come out. He was obvs biding his time.

Torys over a small barrel with this. Join him and he’ll alienate a load of moderate torys- otherwise the Brexit party will split the Tory vote in those seats where they want to scoop up the labour leavers.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 01, 2019, 01:42:31 pm
Amazing to see now Farage has come out. He was obvs biding his time.

 ;D Now this would be news. Perhaps if he fails to get a seat he could apply for a place on Queer Eye.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 01, 2019, 01:45:36 pm
My guess is there will end up being some informal non aggression pact between Farage and the Conservative party so that Johnson can claim it's not a deal.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 01, 2019, 01:57:07 pm
My guess is there will end up being some informal non aggression pact between Farage and the Conservative party so that Johnson can claim it's not a deal.

Hmm not so sure. I think Farages only leverage with voters is to be mr hard brexit... not harder core Tory.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 01, 2019, 03:02:38 pm
My guess is there will end up being some informal non aggression pact between Farage and the Conservative party so that Johnson can claim it's not a deal.

Hmm not so sure. I think Farages only leverage with voters is to be mr hard brexit... not harder core Tory.

With his moral conviction, he'd probably do a deal with Corbyn or the Monster Raving Loony Party if he thought he'd get a seat in parliament
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 01, 2019, 03:51:43 pm
My guess is there will end up being some informal non aggression pact between Farage and the Conservative party so that Johnson can claim it's not a deal.

Hmm not so sure. I think Farages only leverage with voters is to be mr hard brexit... not harder core Tory.

With his moral conviction, he'd probably do a deal with Corbyn or the Monster Raving Loony Party if he thought he'd get a seat in parliament

I thought he was the Monster Raving Loony Party?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: danm on November 01, 2019, 05:27:42 pm
The cynic in me thinks it may be possible that the last thing good old Nigel wants is a hard Brexit engineered by others, because it will instantly remove his sole reason for existing in the public consciousness, and will dry up his funding from his shadowy hard right backers. If he can draw this out by making sure that either Brexit never happens, or ends up being some softish Brexit which he can rail against, he can continue to dine out until he pops his merry little clogs.

Let's face it, anyone with half a brain, even if ideologically for Brexit, would be mad to actually want to be in charge when the full economic repercussions are felt by "Workington Man".
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 01, 2019, 05:54:43 pm
Amazing to see now Farage has come out. He was obvs biding his time.

 ;D Now this would be news. Perhaps if he fails to get a seat he could apply for a place on Queer Eye.

I really couldn’t care less about his sexuality - but - it would be funny if it turned out he was not born in the Uk...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 01, 2019, 11:54:13 pm
Amazing to see now Farage has come out. He was obvs biding his time.

 ;D Now this would be news. Perhaps if he fails to get a seat he could apply for a place on Queer Eye.

I really couldn’t care less about his sexuality - but - it would be funny if it turned out he was not born in the Uk...

Or perhaps that he'd converted to Islam in a bizarre mash up of Homeland and ranting toff pretending to be a man of the people. Or, still better, all of the above at once. The strange thing is, that the news cycle has become so fast moving and bizarre that it would probably be instantly eclipsed by Trump doing something really special.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 02, 2019, 12:03:49 am
Dirty tricks starting already:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/01/tories-accused-of-using-public-funds-for-ads-on-facebook-in-key-seats
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 02, 2019, 09:01:30 am
Over the last few days, I have seen so many anti-Corbyn memes. Almost every Veteran I know, has decided he’s tainted and flat refuse to support him or his party.
The number of times I’ve seen them share the picture of him with IRA members, shared by otherwise intelligent friends, is mind boggling.
These aren’t Britain First supporting, former grunts, these are all former mid-ranking officers or Senior rates, all now senior Engineers and managers. He’s absolutely hated and viewed as a traitor.

It really doesn’t matter if that’s true or not and I’m not saying it is. His past is way too checkered and he has provided far too many photo ops as ammunition for the rightwing propagandists.

A bit like Trump shooting people on 5th Avenue, Corbyn could singlehandedly  rescue a hundred orphans, 30 puppies and a traumatised chimp, from a burning building, on camera and then make tea for the survivors; and still not be able to shake his baggage.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 02, 2019, 09:24:47 am
Oh yeah...

A little thing that slipped under the radar, accidentally on purpose? Who knows, I feel slightly conspiracy minded about several things that have happened militarily of late and how they relate to the referendum etc.

Our new carriers, will primarily be used to deploy/carry United States Marines. There will be almost twice as many US aircraft on each as UK aircraft. They will also be carrying US ground troops. I promise, this is not normal. We’re not talking about a joint exercise here, this is an operational deployment configuration, that essentially puts the assets under US command and reduces the UK to a support role.

This has been planned since 2015.

 https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/hms-queen-elizabeth-carrier-strike-group-to-deploy-in-2021/?no_cache=1 (https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/hms-queen-elizabeth-carrier-strike-group-to-deploy-in-2021/?no_cache=1)


 https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/us-marine-corps-stealth-fighters-get-new-home-british-aircraft-carrier-90076 (https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/us-marine-corps-stealth-fighters-get-new-home-british-aircraft-carrier-90076)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 02, 2019, 10:30:00 am
I don't doubt any ex serviceman who has had anything to do with Ireland will be very anti Corbyn,  and on this I wouldn't disagree with them; but, we're totally outnumbered by credulous believers who don't think he can put a foot wrong.  Despite this my money would certainly be on the election being a pretty bad for the Labour party.  I think most voters will just quickly conclude that Corbyn doesn't have a clear message and is a past-it old London waffler who isn't talking about anything they give a shit about.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on November 02, 2019, 07:16:45 pm
Spent 4.5 years in NI between 95 and 2002. Unlike Matt's ex-colleagues I'm not so narrow-minded that I can't imagine having popped into existence in a different place and time and being young and dumb enough to fight for the Irish republican cause instead of the UK government's. While I don't really care about what Corbyn did or or didn't do in relation to the IRA, because he was an outsider and a contrarian, I suppose it isn't really what middle england see as the stuff of the leader of a UK government.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 02, 2019, 11:33:07 pm
In many ways Pete,  would you say that morally, the 'young dumb' IRA recruits were less tarnished than Corbyn as they had a real greivance, concerning a situation that they were part of, though their actions were reprehensible; rather than being a north London metropolitan Marxist with an axe to grind against the establishment (whatever that is)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 03, 2019, 10:21:39 am
Interesting analysis:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/11/four-misconceptions-about-2019-election
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: jwi on November 03, 2019, 10:34:36 am
Interesting analysis:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/11/four-misconceptions-about-2019-election

The paragraph about average of polls is hilarious. I did not get further.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 03, 2019, 10:43:09 am
So - what Result would you like Toby? I expect most are unpalatable- but to which would you hold your nose the least?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on November 03, 2019, 11:05:12 am
In many ways Pete,  would you say that morally, the 'young dumb' IRA recruits were less tarnished than Corbyn as they had a real greivance, concerning a situation that they were part of, though their actions were reprehensible; rather than being a north London metropolitan Marxist with an axe to grind against the establishment (whatever that is)

Morally...? Corbyn's a career politician.

Like most career politicians wherever they sit on the spectrum, I'd accept that his morals are flexible depending on the context and circumstance. I haven't much more belief in what politicians say from one day to the next than I do in a 3-month weather outlook.

(Although I hold a particular hatred of Tony Blair's morals in spinning the truth to justify a completely unnecessary war)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 03, 2019, 03:11:23 pm
Is anyone on here planning to talk about policy at any point? Seems to be lots of talk about personality, sweeping judgements etc. And very little conversation about what each party is proposing to do.  All of the parties are made up of more than one person but the focus is on leadership.   
I will be voting Labour because the party is proposing to make radical changes that will benefit the people who most need help in our society, not because I love JC.  Their policies most closely match my personal values and I will buy a ticket for the bus that is travelling closest to the destination I want to go to.  None of the other parties come anywhere near apart from the Greens.   Same policies different leader I would still vote that way.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 03, 2019, 04:14:54 pm
You are confusing how we as individuals feel about policy, and our views on Corbyn’s standing with others.
Pretty sure everyone is fairly ok with most of the Labour policies, if not all, but we’re saying Corbyn’s rep is getting in the way of genuine opposition.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 03, 2019, 05:27:10 pm
The party isn't Corbyn though. Even in the extreme best campaigning case he will have a small majority and will need to carry his moderate MPs with any policy. The other choice is hard brexit and an even more unbalanced and extreme but right wing cabinet. If too many progressives obsess about Corbyn this sort of  tory candidate might win:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/03/tory-candidate-francesca-obrien-wrote-people-benefits-street-should-be-put-down

On the subject of blatantly dishonest anti-Corbyn memes these should be shared with election monitors. I think its shameful that currently people can be posting clearly libelous campaign material because the tories didn't change the law on Internet campaigning to be the same as more traditional campaign material.   
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 03, 2019, 08:56:00 pm
So - what Result would you like Toby? I expect most are unpalatable- but to which would you hold your nose the least?

In the election? A lib dem green majority.  Less chance than me winning the lottery. Especially as I've never bought a ticket. 

Seriously  though? I'd really like Johnson to lose his seat and some sort of coalition government similarly to much of Europe. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 04, 2019, 12:09:32 am
A view of the election from the States:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/02/opinion/sunday/uk-brexit.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 04, 2019, 08:26:02 am
So - what Result would you like Toby? I expect most are unpalatable- but to which would you hold your nose the least?

In the election? A lib dem green majority.  Less chance than me winning the lottery. Especially as I've never bought a ticket. 

Seriously  though? I'd really like Johnson to lose his seat and some sort of coalition government similarly to much of Europe.

Yup.

Though the thing about being a Liberal, is you spend most of your time wishing for a coalition government, of compromise and common sense, whilst trying to suppress the memory of the last time that went disastrously wrong...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Andy B on November 04, 2019, 09:12:57 am
Having, in the past, considered voting Lib Dem, a mate suggested I look up Jo Swinson’s Voting record in parliament. Having done that, she seems to be, in my opinion, nothing but a yellow Tory.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 04, 2019, 09:32:25 am
Having, in the past, considered voting Lib Dem, a mate suggested I look up Jo Swinson’s Voting record in parliament. Having done that, she seems to be, in my opinion, nothing but a yellow Tory.

It's quite important to remember that much of the voting record you will have looked at will be from 2010 onwards, when Swinson's party was in coalition with the Conservatives. She was, in effect, voting under a Tory whip. The trade off being a public vote on reforming our electoral system, which the country declined, and which almost certainly would have completely changed the course of the country's history away from the mess that we're in.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Andy B on November 04, 2019, 09:44:35 am
You’re right, it’s important to remember that Jo Swinson and many of the lib dems are prepared to vote in line with the Tory whip.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 04, 2019, 10:01:57 am
You’re right, it’s important to remember that Jo Swinson and many of the lib dems are prepared to vote in line with the Tory whip.

But that’s what being in coalition means... compromising means having to do some things you don’t want to. I think that’s a real problem with our political system - it’s seen as so black or white, remain or leave, Tory or Labour. The FPTP voting system normally delivers one clear winner - so as a nation we’re not used to seeing compromise occurring.

As will mentioned - if only more people (had bothered to) voted in the change to the voting system back in 2012 (I think).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 04, 2019, 10:28:04 am
You’re right, it’s important to remember that Jo Swinson and many of the lib dems are prepared to vote in line with the Tory whip.

Just playing devil's advocate here. Is it like Jezza being prepared to break bread with the IRA and Hamas? Or does he have special leave to work with the bad guys to try and achieve his objective?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: galpinos on November 04, 2019, 10:42:05 am
Having read a couple of articles and listened to a few interviews about voting records and the image portrayed by "they work for you", I'm less inclined to take the image from "they work for you" as accurate.

*One particular case, the name of the MP escapes me" looked like they had voted against most environmental legislation so were deemed against the general green agenda, despite being an active campaigner and having actually written, campaigned for and got a lot of legislation through, most of which got passed without a vote, having voted against things as they were too weak etc.

Having said that, I'm undecided about Jo Swinson and the Lib Dem PR machine churns out bullshit at an alarming rate. The LD leaflets we get are awful.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 04, 2019, 10:53:59 am
Are you in Leach territory Nick? Or a different LibDem?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Andy B on November 04, 2019, 11:02:59 am
But that’s what being in coalition means... compromising means having to do some things you don’t want to. I think that’s a real problem with our political system - it’s seen as so black or white, remain or leave, Tory or Labour. The FPTP voting system normally delivers one clear winner - so as a nation we’re not used to seeing compromise occurring.
I agree with everything you said, but the LDs had the choice of who to go into coalition with in 2010, and they chose the tories. As you say, politics isn’t black and white and I’ve been a floating voter in the past, but it seems pretty clear to me that the tories are never good for anyone but the rich, and the Lib Dem’s let them into power in 2010 when there was an alternative for a coalition. They may well have made this choice in an attempt to change the voting system for the better, but that attempt clearly failed and instead they facilitated the mess we are in today.
Re. The excuse for Jo Swinson’s appalling voting record. Didn’t vince cable regularly vote against the Tory whip whilst in coalition, or was that just bluster?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Andy B on November 04, 2019, 11:10:40 am
You’re right, it’s important to remember that Jo Swinson and many of the lib dems are prepared to vote in line with the Tory whip.

Just playing devil's advocate here. Is it like Jezza being prepared to break bread with the IRA and Hamas? Or does he have special leave to work with the bad guys to try and achieve his objective?

As I’m sure you’re aware, there’s a big difference between talking to people and going into government with them.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: galpinos on November 04, 2019, 11:16:32 am
Are you in Leach territory Nick? Or a different LibDem?

I was in Leech territory but have move and am now in Manchester Gorton! Came as bit of a surprise but constituencies are always a bit weird, both my council ward and, in fact, my street is split, half one constituency, half the other!

My MP is now Afzal Khan instead of Jeff Smith. No chance of Gorton returning anything but Labour.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 04, 2019, 11:35:52 am
Cameron seemed quite a light blue wet in 2010 and everybody was reeling from Blair’s revealed war crimes and a global financial crisis, which was wrongly blamed on Labour and Brown in particular (to me, another bit if “little England” bullshit; since I was living overseas as the collapse unfolded, saw that it was way worse in other countries and knew full well that the UK policies shielded it’s population from the worst of it).
I fucking angry when the Libs joined the Cons, because I was sure Cameron’s wet image would slip as soon as real power was available.

War crimes aside, the Labour government had done well, Britain was prosperous and inequality was in decline. They were, in effect if not name, acting as a social democratic party, not a socialist party. The crisis was unfairly used to both re-empower the right and drag the Labour party back into the 70’s. 

Reimagine Blair’s legacy, minus Iraq. It’s hard, but worthwhile. Brown was an even better PM, like Major before him. Being boring is the kiss of death, though. The UK public are way too susceptible to charlatans like Bojo.
When things run smoothly, people don’t notice, then some blip intrudes on their daily apathy and the “rulers” must foot the bill, regardless of culpability.

So, the Libs made a massive miscalculation, by dealing with the Devil, because he had a new suit and a pleasant smile. Their alternative was a discredited Labour party, not an option in the circumstances, or returning to obscurity. I wish they’d not done so, because, of course, the Devil was still a cunt. But so are ~50% of the population. Selfish, unsympathetic, narrow minded and conservative, convinced someone is out to steal what little they have. You know, those on minimum wage, who are angry because Labour want to tax Billionaires a little more, or whinge about inheritance tax, despite having not prospect of ever reaching the threshold etc etc etc...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 04, 2019, 01:17:46 pm
You’re right, it’s important to remember that Jo Swinson and many of the lib dems are prepared to vote in line with the Tory whip.

But that’s what being in coalition means... compromising means having to do some things you don’t want to. I think that’s a real problem with our political system - it’s seen as so black or white, remain or leave, Tory or Labour. The FPTP voting system normally delivers one clear winner - so as a nation we’re not used to seeing compromise occurring.

As will mentioned - if only more people (had bothered to) voted in the change to the voting system back in 2012 (I think).

TomTom I agree, this black / white attitude is responsible for so much that is bad and regressive in UK politics. Both sides are very guilty of this, the left of constantly talking about 'Torys' as a pejorative and saying that they're only good for the rich, which is bollocks, or some of the right trying to say that any Labour government will definitely ruin the economy, which is equally bollocks.

I see the willingness of a party to be in a coaliation as a sign of strength and a confidence in their agenda, but a recognition that the world isn't simple and a blend of ideologies and viewpoints may produce more progressive ideas and policies.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: SA Chris on November 04, 2019, 01:48:10 pm
Is anyone on here planning to talk about policy at any point? Seems to be lots of talk about personality, sweeping judgements etc. And very little conversation about what each party is proposing to do.  All of the parties are made up of more than one person but the focus is on leadership.   

So true. This is not America, no.

(Falalalala)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Johnny Brown on November 04, 2019, 02:38:08 pm
the Lib Dem’s let them into power in 2010 when there was an alternative for a coalition.

This is a fallacy. They say you don't win elections, you lose them. And Labour clearly lost the 2010 election. The Conservatives managed both a higher vote total and higher share of the vote than even the previous Labour government had done in 2005, when it secured a comfortable majority. Had the Lib Dems attempted a coalition with Labour they would have still been 10 seats short of a majority. Maybe they could have roped the SNP in, but the reality is cobbling a government together without the biggest party has never happened in the UK. Had the LDs refused to go in with the Cons, there would have been another election and it would have been straight to the sort of swivel-eyed Conservative majority we got in 2015.

As long as we have FPTP the country is fucked, I never want to see another majority government again personally.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on November 04, 2019, 03:15:26 pm
And wasn't that the price for which the Lib Dems sold their souls back in 2010 - the oft-forgotten AV referendum?

I got the feeling that Referendum Dave's offer to them was "come into a coaliton with me, forget the whole tuition fees things thing and you can have your AV vote"...which he then opposed.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Somebody's Fool on November 04, 2019, 03:22:06 pm
I’m sure they’d increase their vote share if they tried again and campaigned on electoral reform.

At the moment they just seem to be slagging Labour off, presumably to appeal to the tribalistic nature of Tory remainers.

I can see why they’re doing it, but I’m hearing absolutely nothing from Lib Dem’s that has any positivity or that actually look to address any of the problems the country/world is facing.

Only Labour are, as far as I can tell.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Andy B on November 04, 2019, 03:37:05 pm
...Had the Lib Dems attempted a coalition with Labour they would have still been 10 seats short of a majority. Maybe they could have roped the SNP in, but the reality is cobbling a government together without the biggest party has never happened in the UK...

Again, I wholeheartedly agree re. FPTP, but I would rather have seen an attempt at the above than what we got. Particularly as the Labour, LD and SNP manifestos had a lot more in common than that of the tories.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Andy B on November 04, 2019, 03:41:49 pm
....I’m hearing absolutely nothing from Lib Dem’s that has any positivity or that actually look to address any of the problems the country/world is facing.

Only Labour are, as far as I can tell.

I agree, though I think i’d add the greens and SNP to the list of those with positive messages too?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 04, 2019, 03:49:05 pm
(may have said this before) but I think the Lib Dems were spurred on by their sucess in the Euros with their very clear bollox to brexit campaign.. But I am struggling to think of one policy other than that they have...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 04, 2019, 04:33:15 pm
(may have said this before) but I think the Lib Dems were spurred on by their sucess in the Euros with their very clear bollox to brexit campaign.. But I am struggling to think of one policy other than that they have...

Ed Davey has a lot to say about development of renewable energy. Sarah Wollaston is now LD and has significant, progressive ideas about evidence based healthcare. They do have policies, but they aren't covered very much by media, for understandable reasons.

It's worth saying that the letter from NHS providers in the Times today is really good. Both Labour and the Conservatives are spouting absolutely undeliverable rubbish on health and social care and they need to stop. It's all very well saying you'll fund free social care for all over 65s, but where exactly do the carers come from? An awful lot of them are going back to Europe due to Brexit, there aren't enough to cover demand at the moment let alone state care for all. Conservative spending is all lovely but this is what's needed to maintain current services, not offer anything else.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 04, 2019, 08:49:20 pm
So, I ended up in Newton Abbot MIU today. Having my sciatica discussed by two (male) Nurse Practitioners. After Seeing the Doc and getting a short term prescription, they wanted to call my GP and book me in for a follow up and continued care etc.
Even as an internal NHS request, they were told I just had to do the appointment lottery on the day. That means, calling at 08:30 and hoping for an answer. If you don’t get an answer the first time, you get an automated “please try again”, which you do immediately. It has taken me 63 attempts to get an answer, in the past (though it’s usually around the 15-20 mark). Often, when you finally get through, there are no appointments left and you are told to call back at 12:30, on the off chance of a cancellation, or try again tomorrow. No calls are accepted after 10am, until the 12:30 mop up. And that’s just to get a telephone triage appointment, not even your actual GP appointment.

This prompted a small rant from the older of the two nurses (around my age, I’d guess) about how everything was over stretched and falling apart etc etc.
So, in jest, I said “Bet you’ll be voting Tory then, next month”.

He said yes.

I was somewhat taken aback.
Not as much as the other nurse though.

They actually had a full on debate about it. I said nothing.

Older nurse is flat out anti-Corbyn. “Can’t let that traitor come to power and I’m not iting LibDem”.
Younger nurse (30’s?) claps back with the “it’s not about personalities, it’s policies! Anyway, if you show me the picture of Corbyn with IRA and I can show you pictures of Tory prime ministers with Pinochet and a hundred other mass murdering dictators!”
Older nurse claps back with “yeah, but they didn’t bomb our bloody country, they weren’t our enemies!”

And so on.

I tried to sink into my chair and played on my phone.

I’m not normally shy of a debate, but Jezus...

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: dunnyg on November 04, 2019, 10:06:41 pm
Is there an option to actually go to the GP? I literally live next door to mine so just go in for opening, they usually hold a number of appointments open every day for this. If your problem is urgent then you usually will get seen. I guess this may vary from practise to practise though, but possibly worth a shot. Depends how this can fit around other commitments you have (work kids etc.). Hope the drugs work! (this should probs be in your dodgy back thread, but oh well!)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 04, 2019, 10:36:11 pm
Matt, I hope your sciatica improves; but re the nurses debate,  that was the newton Abbot,  home of UKIP....
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 05, 2019, 08:15:43 am
Absolutely.
I always assumed that opening the lines at 08:30, was also a tactic designed to prevent the working age patients from getting appointments. Most people have to leave for work before or at this time. Who has time to spend an hour trying to get through then? I do, because the Wall doesn’t open until 12 on weekdays, but what fraction of the working age population are free at that time?
It’s almost impossible to get appointments for school age children too, since this is school run time and you’d essentially have to take the decision to keep them home before you even try.
You cannot even make advanced appointments, say, for a week’s time etc. It’s nuts.
Most people in Torbay, just head to A&E/MIU or wait until 5pm and call 101.
The GP system is broken.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: dunnyg on November 05, 2019, 08:40:06 am
Students with no fixed hours can do it. Not sure what happens when I get a job again though!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 05, 2019, 08:54:38 am
There are different methods in different GP surgerys (as I found when I moved a couple of years back). My old one was shit - my new one is great. Call at 8:30 - and you can leave a message. You are then triaged by a Nurse or (if available) Doctor who will then sign you up for an appt that day to see either Dr or Nurse - or send you to pharmacy/A&E/111.

If - however - you want a 'regular' drs appt then its a 1-2 week wait. So everyone does the route above. Out of hours is also subcontracted to some provider called Go2Doc - which works through 111. They then book you an appointment (even in the middle of the night) and you turn up at their 'clinic' (which is via a side door in A&E at Manchester Royal Infirmary) and you get seen by a tired looking locum earning some extra $$ pretty on time etc..

This is all in Manchester/S.Manchester - and is MUCH better than I had when registered in Hull (to the point where I complained to the practice and the trust)... I don't know for sure, but as GP practices have a level of autonomy I would assume (I know assumption etc...) that it can be quite different from practice to practice, from area to area.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 05, 2019, 09:40:17 am
My experience of getting GPs appointments is wholly positive. For nippers (not sure up to what age but ours is 2.5) they get seen on the day that you call no matter what. When I've had issues that need seeing to at the GP I can't think that I've ever waited more than a few days or a week, which for the issues that you'd go to a GP for is fine. When I had nasty neck/shoulder pain around New Year one year, I called up on the 2nd Jan (1st day open after a bank holiday during the winter demand peak) and was spoken to on the phone by an ANP later that morning. She referred me immediately to physio and treatment started within a few days.

I understand that that is not everyone's experience. I'd have thought our local services were quite stretched (conservative area, slightly above average proportion of retirement age people) but we seem to do OK.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 05, 2019, 09:41:44 am
Having read a couple of articles and listened to a few interviews about voting records and the image portrayed by "they work for you", I'm less inclined to take the image from "they work for you" as accurate.

*One particular case, the name of the MP escapes me" looked like they had voted against most environmental legislation so were deemed against the general green agenda, despite being an active campaigner and having actually written, campaigned for and got a lot of legislation through, most of which got passed without a vote, having voted against things as they were too weak etc.

Having said that, I'm undecided about Jo Swinson and the Lib Dem PR machine churns out bullshit at an alarming rate. The LD leaflets we get are awful.

"They Work for You" apply clunky algorithmic generation of their headline statements with poor editorial control, hence you get statements for Jo like this... "Generally voted against a more proportional system for electing MPs"

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/11971/jo_swinson/east_dunbartonshire/votes

If you look through to the data on the actual votes such statements are clearly wrong, given on all the specific votes  she was voting alongside all or nearly all, of her Lib Dem colleagues. This is the only vote linked to that headline statement... highly embarrassing for the site, in my view:

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/divisions/pw-2010-10-12-68-commons/mp/11971

You hardly need to be a genius to realise that being pro proportional representation doesn't mean you can't have a party position on some systems being better than others. The same applies to other odd looking statements on the website on her voting record... she pretty much always voted with her fellow Lib dems under the coalition deal.

As for the Lib Dems joining Labour in a minority coalition... they did try... we will have to wait for the history books to find out exactly why those talks failed,  but the numbers looked to be just a bit too far against them (especially given serial Labour back-bench rebels like a certain Mr Corbyn).

Things have improved.... at one point, when Jo was a new leader, the TWfY site claimed that LIb Dems supported PR but Jo consistently didn't (all because of a series of votes on very different motions prior to Jo becoming an MP ...Jo always voted with the party majority on all PR votes.).

Some far left e-rags have jumped on these bogus statements from "They Work for You" and tried to demonise her as 'way more tory than most Lib Dems', and sadly many people fell for it.

Tick tock... the clock marches on ... too many young people still need to register to vote and Lib Dems in those marginal northern and midland  Labour constituencies need to stop squabbling and persuade fellow progressives, who are worried about Corbyn, that having him as a minority leader is massively less bad than Boris with a majority. Look at the tory panic with Rees Mogg telling Brexit they will betray the leave cause.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Stabbsy on November 05, 2019, 10:02:40 am
I don't know for sure, but as GP practices have a level of autonomy I would assume (I know assumption etc...) that it can be quite different from practice to practice, from area to area.
Slightly OT, but yes, GP practices have a degree of autonomy - my partner is a GP in a fairly run down area of Sheffield. They had to change their appointment system about 18 months ago and have trialled a couple of others since. They used to offer a morning drop-in session, pre-booked appointments - both on the day and in advance. Their experience was that for pre-booked appointments, they had about 50% attendance, marginally better for on the day bookings. With that kind of experience, it's difficult to continue to offer that service. We are our own worst enemies.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: sdm on November 05, 2019, 10:59:25 am
My surgery is very similar to Matt's.

Phone lines open at 8.00. They have 3 receptionists answering the phones (for a small surgery with 1 full time GP, a part time nurse and a part time locum with very irregular hours. You ring up at 8.00 sharp, get an engaged tone (no call queueing or message system), instantly hang up, redial,  repeat etc etc.

Last time I tried, I spent 15 minutes not getting through, then when I did get through, all appointments are taken for the day, please try again tomorrow or try A&E/111. On the third day of trying, I got through after 3 minutes. All appointments before 9am had already gone as had all appointments after 3pm (surgery is open until 18.30) so I have to take an afternoon off work to make it. There are no advanced appointments, no exceptions.

This was all for a routine follow up appointment; myself and the doctor knew when it would be needed 90 days in advance. Such an inefficient system.

That said, the one time I did have an urgent need for an appointment, I rang up on an afternoon and was seen within the hour so at least they are able to find a way to see the urgent cases as long as you are able to get the urgency across to the receptionist before they cut you off and tell you to try again tomorrow.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: seankenny on November 05, 2019, 12:21:52 pm
Is anyone on here planning to talk about policy at any point? Seems to be lots of talk about personality, sweeping judgements etc. And very little conversation about what each party is proposing to do.  All of the parties are made up of more than one person but the focus is on leadership.   
I will be voting Labour because the party is proposing to make radical changes that will benefit the people who most need help in our society, not because I love JC.  Their policies most closely match my personal values...

If personality wasn’t important then why haven’t the Labour far left dumped Corbyn for a younger, smarter and more savvy alternative?

Of course personality matters deeply because a policy isn’t just a lever one pulls to get an outcome - which is why business people often do badly at politics. Making government work means balancing competing interests, understanding incentives and being willing to compromise sometimes.

Does Mr Corbyn have the personality to make government work? I’d say on that basis, no. For his first nine years in Parliament he couldn’t even be arsed to sit on a select committee. He’s spent his time wallowing in the far left, a part of the political spectrum dedicated to factional infighting and fanatical intolerance, rather than flawed but vaguely effective policy making. Pity the civil servant trying to tell Corbyn, Milne and co - silly posh boys all - that a favoured policy might have unintended consequences that are either large or hard to predict.

If it’s about policies and not personality, your man’s a dud. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 05, 2019, 01:46:12 pm
If it’s about policies and not personality, your man’s a dud. 

In government, I suspect you're right, Corbyn seems to have been rather poor and indecisive around a number of issues, not just Brexit; the Skripal poisoning, foreign policy involving Iran... 
For balance, I'd add that Johnson has been effing useless in almost every significant job he's had except perhaps being on HIGNFY. However, Corbyn does seem to have a personality and aptitude for campaigning, he does seem to have an ability to inspire people. I don't think this would make him any better as a PM, but perhaps not a total dud as a leader of a party in opposition.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 05, 2019, 02:16:25 pm
More on Facebook dirty tricks with some pointed irony at the end.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/nov/05/ex-johnson-aide-behind-banned-brexit-facebook-ad-worked-on-fake-grassroots-campaign
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mark20 on November 05, 2019, 05:34:49 pm
More on Facebook dirty tricks with some pointed irony at the end.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/nov/05/ex-johnson-aide-behind-banned-brexit-facebook-ad-worked-on-fake-grassroots-campaign

And today the Conservatives posted an edited video of an interview with Keir Starmer to make it look like he didn't understand Labour's Brexit policy - https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1191732381306277890
(edited and original videos are on there)

Not the first time in the last few weeks that the Cons have created misleading/false adverts
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49690325
https://fullfact.org/europe/brexit-deal-not-passed-parliament/
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 05, 2019, 10:42:45 pm
It's incredible that the PM's adviser is on record as saying that the election system is wide open to abuse, as though it's a good thing.  I'm sure none of the parties is immune to online campaigning that stretches the (woefully inadequate) rules, but Cummings' influence definitely concerns me the most. Several Conservative MPs have expressed serious concerns about his methods, and not just the Dominic Grieve contingent; Steve Baker did not sound happy about him on a radio 4 documentary this evening
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: winhill on November 06, 2019, 01:12:55 am
However, Corbyn does seem to have a personality and aptitude for campaigning, he does seem to have an ability to inspire people. I don't think this would make him any better as a PM, but perhaps not a total dud as a leader of a party in opposition.
I don't remember him campaigning much, Troops Out of course but it was a tiny movement and this is where Corbyn can act because he lacks better competition as most MPs wouldn't touch it with a barge pole. He's effective preaching to the converted but largely dismissed by everyone else (Boris' popularity is still way above Corbyn's).

As for his leadership, this is the type of person he's brought to the party:

Labour Coventry South candidate Zarah Sultana apologises for 'celebrate deaths' post

A Labour general election candidate has apologised for saying she would "celebrate" the deaths of world leaders, including Tony Blair.

Zarah Sultana wrote on social media in 2015: "Try and stop me when the likes of Blair, Netanyahu and Bush die."

In 2015, Ms Sultana also wrote of her support for "violent resistance" by Palestinians, the Jewish Chronicle reported.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-50292235

Despite Blair being the only Labour leader to win an election since Harold Wilson in 1974, Blairite has become hate term under Corbyn's leadership.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 06, 2019, 08:02:57 am
However, Corbyn does seem to have a personality and aptitude for campaigning, he does seem to have an ability to inspire people. I don't think this would make him any better as a PM, but perhaps not a total dud as a leader of a party in opposition.
I don't remember him campaigning much, Troops Out of course but it was a tiny movement and this is where Corbyn can act because he lacks better competition as most MPs wouldn't touch it with a barge pole. He's effective preaching to the converted but largely dismissed by everyone else (Boris' popularity is still way above Corbyn's).

As for his leadership, this is the type of person he's brought to the party:

Labour Coventry South candidate Zarah Sultana apologises for 'celebrate deaths' post

A Labour general election candidate has apologised for saying she would "celebrate" the deaths of world leaders, including Tony Blair.

Zarah Sultana wrote on social media in 2015: "Try and stop me when the likes of Blair, Netanyahu and Bush die."

In 2015, Ms Sultana also wrote of her support for "violent resistance" by Palestinians, the Jewish Chronicle reported.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-50292235

Despite Blair being the only Labour leader to win an election since Harold Wilson in 1974, Blairite has become hate term under Corbyn's leadership.

If you think she’s funny.

You are going to absolutely shit yourself when you find out about this Rees Mogg fella and some of the shit he comes out with!

And there’s this other one, who does a turn where he calls people of African heritage “Picanninies” and Muslim women “letterboxes” and Scots “a verminous race”.

Oh! Oh! I almost forgot! There’s one does a fucking amazing trick with a dead pig!


But, no, you worry about some fringe idiot, damaging the image of the party.


PS: I’m not a Labour supporter.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 06, 2019, 09:54:48 am
Corbyn and Stalin seem to be two key words CGHQ seem to be getting out well in the media today...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 06, 2019, 10:05:13 am
However, Corbyn does seem to have a personality and aptitude for campaigning, he does seem to have an ability to inspire people. I don't think this would make him any better as a PM, but perhaps not a total dud as a leader of a party in opposition.
I don't remember him campaigning much, Troops Out of course but it was a tiny movement and this is where Corbyn can act because he lacks better competition as most MPs wouldn't touch it with a barge pole. He's effective preaching to the converted but largely dismissed by everyone else (Boris' popularity is still way above Corbyn's).

As for his leadership, this is the type of person he's brought to the party:

Labour Coventry South candidate Zarah Sultana apologises for 'celebrate deaths' post

A Labour general election candidate has apologised for saying she would "celebrate" the deaths of world leaders, including Tony Blair.

Zarah Sultana wrote on social media in 2015: "Try and stop me when the likes of Blair, Netanyahu and Bush die."

In 2015, Ms Sultana also wrote of her support for "violent resistance" by Palestinians, the Jewish Chronicle reported.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-50292235

Despite Blair being the only Labour leader to win an election since Harold Wilson in 1974, Blairite has become hate term under Corbyn's leadership.

If you think she’s funny.

You are going to absolutely shit yourself when you find out about this Rees Mogg fella and some of the shit he comes out with!

And there’s this other one, who does a turn where he calls people of African heritage “Picanninies” and Muslim women “letterboxes” and Scots “a verminous race”.
Oh! Oh! I almost forgot! There’s one does a fucking amazing trick with a dead pig!
But, no, you worry about some fringe idiot, damaging the image of the party.
PS: I’m not a Labour supporter.

Matt, she is a candidate,  I think that's more than a fringe idiot. I think that the undoubted supercilious ineptitude of many conservative politicians is exceeded by the rancorous slide into antisemitism on the left. Its tragic because the sensible and well meaning members of both parties are miles from this. The upside of this is that I can just not vote for them if I dislike their views, or the people they associate with.

I'm more worried about the threat to electoral legitimacy by fake videos, targeted marketing and lies by all sorts of people but currently most prominently the conservative party. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 06, 2019, 10:09:48 am
Corbyn and Stalin seem to be two key words CGHQ seem to be getting out well in the media today...

Yes, it's rather tedious and a non-argument, as much as Labour banging on about Thatcherism is to be honest.  It can't be that hard to criticise policy and not start talking about dead people because you think the public will listen to that. Sadly,  I suspect that many people don't want to hear about policy really, they want an easy answer which really doesn't exist. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: galpinos on November 06, 2019, 10:30:13 am
Wow, what a start to a campaign by the Tories:

Rees-Mogg of Grenfell
Bridgen on Rees-Mogg
CCHQ doctoring the Kier Starmer video
Cleverly empty chaired/trying to defend the Torys on the radio
Tory Gower candidate's opinions on people on benefits

And that's not even including the suppression of the Russian dossier or Brexit! I mean, Labour, Corbyn and most of the shadow cabinet are pretty gaff prone but this is quite the start.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on November 06, 2019, 12:03:11 pm
...and yet...and yet...it will all make zero difference in the main to the "man in the street".

It seems to me that the news media (and people who are interested in following the news media narrative, myself included) love getting into a lather about stuff like the above, but does it resonate beyond that? I think not.

I think in a way that is the clever bit about recent populist political movements - simple sloganeering, repeated over and over which helps to detract from, and becomes the riposte to, gaffes / scandals like the above.

I can hear it now...question about one of the above incidents, responded to with "look, when I talk to people on the doorstep what they are saying is that they want to Get Brexit Done..."
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 06, 2019, 12:13:28 pm
I can’t understand how the Cons continue to be popular.
The only explanation I have, at this time, based on the apparent evidence; is that a substantial number of people in this country are racist, homophobic, gullible and hate-filled masochists. They actually quite like the current face of Conservatism.

When I was a Tory, it felt like it was all about being smart, trying hard, being polite and civilised; actually (you could almost say) socially conscious.
Of course, that illusion passed quickly, but really the current crop are from the worst fringes of the party of Major or even Thatcher.
And, honestly Toby, I think they’re far worse than the Anti-semites of the Labour party (not that I think they should be “allowed” either, just slightly less abhorrent). Please note, in my sarcastic reply to Winhill, I cited a current and former PM and the current leader of the house, to his/your prospective and as yet unelected candidate.

There are candidates standing, who believe they come from other planets or are seemingly mentally ill (I refer to BNP, Brexit Party, BF types, of course, not the genuinely troubled).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on November 06, 2019, 12:57:25 pm
I can’t understand how the Cons continue to be popular.

With few Con voters I know well enough to talk about it, there were two uniting themes:
- wanting to pay less tax
- not trusting Corbyn more than any of the Con leaders, including May when she was at her most dithering.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on November 06, 2019, 01:00:58 pm
Sorry to the Corbyistas on here but isn't it also the lack of a viable opposition?

As a fully paid-up centrist Dad there is a) no way in hell I'd ever vote Tory, but b) find the Labour party unpalatable for any number of reasons, including Magic Grandpa himself (I'm sorry, but he's just not good at being a modern politician, he's a terrible orator and he lacks charisma which like it or not is a big part of the game), the blurry position(s) on Brexit, the antisemitic stuff, the fact they have completely failed to make any inroads on a ruling party going through the worst public implosion in recent memory...

My allegiances are probably with the Greens or Lib Dems, neither of whom have a hope in my ward (I'm in Jo Cox's constituency which is c.7k Lab majority) so I will doubtless end up holding my nose and voting Labour anyway.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Johnny Brown on November 06, 2019, 01:58:37 pm
If I was in a safe seat (or we had PR obvs) I'd always vote Green.

Corbyn has not lived up to early promise but I can't see how he'd be any worse than the alternatives. Having said that there is no way I'm supporting Labour in Sheffield Hallam following the O'Mara and street trees debacles. I have voted tactically in the past but will probably have to be Green this time.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 06, 2019, 02:32:51 pm
It's one of the big benefits of better tactical voting information.  People want to support the party or want to vote that way to increase pressure on their agenda but are worried it might help let a tory in in error. In the vast majority of UK seats that shouldnt be a worry.

Plus, more bad news for the tory party on government propaganda

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/06/government-universal-credit-deception-asa-taxpayer-funded-features
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: James Malloch on November 06, 2019, 04:39:27 pm
I just watched this excerpt from Sky News - thought it was brilliant.

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1192013743967932416?s=20

Edit - forgot to add that the Conservative party says he wasn’t due to be interviewed and was on a radio show at the same time. Nonetheless it’s an amusing watch.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 06, 2019, 05:03:27 pm
Does anyone know, what the Labour party policy is on the BBC?

Does the BBC see a Labour Government as an existential threat,or something?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 06, 2019, 08:07:21 pm
Tom Watson standing down 😱
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: winhill on November 06, 2019, 08:19:18 pm
However, Corbyn does seem to have a personality and aptitude for campaigning, he does seem to have an ability to inspire people. I don't think this would make him any better as a PM, but perhaps not a total dud as a leader of a party in opposition.
I don't remember him campaigning much, Troops Out of course but it was a tiny movement and this is where Corbyn can act because he lacks better competition as most MPs wouldn't touch it with a barge pole. He's effective preaching to the converted but largely dismissed by everyone else (Boris' popularity is still way above Corbyn's).

As for his leadership, this is the type of person he's brought to the party:

Labour Coventry South candidate Zarah Sultana apologises for 'celebrate deaths' post

A Labour general election candidate has apologised for saying she would "celebrate" the deaths of world leaders, including Tony Blair.

Zarah Sultana wrote on social media in 2015: "Try and stop me when the likes of Blair, Netanyahu and Bush die."

In 2015, Ms Sultana also wrote of her support for "violent resistance" by Palestinians, the Jewish Chronicle reported.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-50292235

Despite Blair being the only Labour leader to win an election since Harold Wilson in 1974, Blairite has become hate term under Corbyn's leadership.
But, no, you worry about some fringe idiot, damaging the image of the party.
Yet again you don't seem to be responding to what I've written but this is particularly dumb. She's a PPC defending an 8,000 majority during an election.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 06, 2019, 09:08:15 pm
However, Corbyn does seem to have a personality and aptitude for campaigning, he does seem to have an ability to inspire people. I don't think this would make him any better as a PM, but perhaps not a total dud as a leader of a party in opposition.
I don't remember him campaigning much, Troops Out of course but it was a tiny movement and this is where Corbyn can act because he lacks better competition as most MPs wouldn't touch it with a barge pole. He's effective preaching to the converted but largely dismissed by everyone else (Boris' popularity is still way above Corbyn's).

As for his leadership, this is the type of person he's brought to the party:

Labour Coventry South candidate Zarah Sultana apologises for 'celebrate deaths' post

A Labour general election candidate has apologised for saying she would "celebrate" the deaths of world leaders, including Tony Blair.

Zarah Sultana wrote on social media in 2015: "Try and stop me when the likes of Blair, Netanyahu and Bush die."

In 2015, Ms Sultana also wrote of her support for "violent resistance" by Palestinians, the Jewish Chronicle reported.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-50292235

Despite Blair being the only Labour leader to win an election since Harold Wilson in 1974, Blairite has become hate term under Corbyn's leadership.
But, no, you worry about some fringe idiot, damaging the image of the party.
Yet again you don't seem to be responding to what I've written but this is particularly dumb. She's a PPC defending an 8,000 majority during an election.

Oh dear.

You must be so upset.

I must apologise for not giving your side show the attention you crave.

After all, how could misconduct by actual PM’s possibly compare.

I commend you most highly for your sleuthing abilities.

Are you actually Mrs Rooney?

The Labour party are currently inept and fractured. Hence their inability to turn to their advantage, the gaffs of the weirdest, most caricatured bunch of snivelling toffs to hold office, since before WW2. 

Edit:

To be clear. Lots of people celebrated, loudly, the death of MrsT. I thought it in bad taste and silly. It was their right to do so.
We have, as a nation, sponsored, armed and trained, violent resistance groups. As long as it suited our interests to do so.
I lived in Haifa for a time, almost married an Israeli girl (Ruth, Jewish). Even under those circumstances, I was pretty shocked at the treatment of the Israeli arabs.
I’m not suggesting that your chosen target is not anti-semitic, just that it’s easy to be upset at that little middle eastern debacle.

Compared, however, to the antics of the other side (Tories) your selected target, seems rather insipid. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 06, 2019, 10:49:53 pm
Tom Watson standing down 😱

A shame. Every broadly centrist MP seems to be leaving parliament other than a few lib dems. Far too many of those left in the two main parties are verging on extremist in their views and appear to subordinate sensible evidence based policy making to political dogma.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 07, 2019, 08:09:41 am
However, Corbyn does seem to have a personality and aptitude for campaigning, he does seem to have an ability to inspire people. I don't think this would make him any better as a PM, but perhaps not a total dud as a leader of a party in opposition.
I don't remember him campaigning much, Troops Out of course but it was a tiny movement and this is where Corbyn can act because he lacks better competition as most MPs wouldn't touch it with a barge pole. He's effective preaching to the converted but largely dismissed by everyone else (Boris' popularity is still way above Corbyn's).

As for his leadership, this is the type of person he's brought to the party:

Labour Coventry South candidate Zarah Sultana apologises for 'celebrate deaths' post

A Labour general election candidate has apologised for saying she would "celebrate" the deaths of world leaders, including Tony Blair.

Zarah Sultana wrote on social media in 2015: "Try and stop me when the likes of Blair, Netanyahu and Bush die."

In 2015, Ms Sultana also wrote of her support for "violent resistance" by Palestinians, the Jewish Chronicle reported.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-50292235

Despite Blair being the only Labour leader to win an election since Harold Wilson in 1974, Blairite has become hate term under Corbyn's leadership.
But, no, you worry about some fringe idiot, damaging the image of the party.
Yet again you don't seem to be responding to what I've written but this is particularly dumb. She's a PPC defending an 8,000 majority during an election.

She also wrote that whilst a student..

And there is no context for the tweet.

She may well be a nasty bit of work - or its a genuine silly thing to say etc.. Either way the origin of the quote is a bit different from saying something racist or misogynistic whilst a government minister and then becoming PM... 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 07, 2019, 09:08:10 am
I actually meant to point out, that compared to prominent Labour party  members and MPs of the past, she seems tame.
I’m thinking of Red Ken in his strident days, Den as the Beast, Dangerous Derek.
Have we forgotten Militant?

It’s these very extremes, fuelled and beloved by the press, that are the greatest problem in British politics.

In the end, most of us suffer, between those who would hang the rich or strip the trappings from the Bourgeoisie and those who wish to starve or “put back in their place” the upstart plebs.

I know, that’s an exaggeration, but you know what I mean. And, in many cases, based on the opinions they allow to slip into public discourse, you have to wonder how far they would actually go given unlimited power. Anyone have a problem imagining RM organising “re-education” camps for the “anti-social wastrel classes”, if he had that kind of power?
I don’t.

I think there are similar, repressed, desires on both sides.

Always have been.

It’s human nature.

However, at this time, as the wet’s desert their parties on both sides of the aisles, those “true believers” are losing their internal party counterweights, and that’s alarming.

On balance, and since eventually Hobson must choose, a minority Labour Government, propped up by Centrists parties, looks like the best outcome that could be hoped for, by anybody not infected with the polarisation virus.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 07, 2019, 09:51:50 am
...
However, at this time, as the wet’s desert their parties on both sides of the aisles, those “true believers” are losing their internal party counterweights, and that’s alarming.
...
On balance, and since eventually Hobson must choose, a minority Labour Government, propped up by Centrists parties, looks like the best outcome that could be hoped for, by anybody not infected with the polarisation virus.

The big problem with that is, with people of the ideological zeal of Laura Pidock, Seamus Milne and indeed perhaps Corbyn would be as unwilling to compromise as everyone else would be to work with them. Theres no getting away from the fact that the Labour party currently has a set of policies that are extremely radical, arguably more so than leaving the EU.  I'm not espousing the pros or cons of either option here but wholesale wealth redistribution and borrowing 150bn for infrastructure spending is a pretty big deal. I find it hard to envisage this party moderating its stance sufficiently to work with a broadly centrist  Liberal Democrat party,  or indeed Plaid or the Greens.  I don't think the Liberal Democrats can really row back from revoke at this point either, mind.

I think I'm trying to say that the people who are really badly infected with your polarisation virus, Matt are an awful lot of MPs.  Saying that,  I think they're only reflecting the country there. I listened to a conversation between several colleagues at work last week,  and suddenly felt as though I really didn't know any of them. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 07, 2019, 10:24:41 am
But that’s it Toby, the government reflects the country, that’s my point.

Who’s actually happy? Right now? Left, right, up, down or the fucking Hookey-cokey party? Who’s right on with how things are?

Anyone?

I think if you can find anyone who’s happy, they probably need their medication dose checked or they’re in a friggin coma.

People are desperate for change andanswers.

You can’t ignore Spiceheads passed out in front of Boots on a Saturday morning, you can only argue about whether they need “locking up” or helping.

Same argument applies, regardless of the pressing social ill or existential crisis we all face, from knife crime to climate change.

The more desperate the issues become, the more likely people are to grasp at either black or white straws, offered by people with self justified, logically impenetrable, ideologies (political or religious).

Because people don’t havethe answers, themselves.

Anyway, on a lighter note.

I love it when politicians self sabotage.

(https://i.ibb.co/DRsc9CF/69-EE32-C1-13-D0-480-F-BFAC-EFA3-CF0-A33-C6.jpg)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 07, 2019, 10:38:39 am
The front page of the Jewish Chronicle today:

Quote
The vast majority of British Jews consider Jeremy Corbyn to be an antisemite. In the most recent poll, last month, the figure was 87 per cent.
Putting oneself in the shoes of another person, or another group, can be difficult. But we believe it is important — and urgent — that you do that. Perhaps the fact that nearly half (47 per cent) of the Jewish community said in that same poll that they would “seriously consider” emigrating if Mr Corbyn wins on December 12 will give you an indication of what it feels like to be a British Jew at a time when the official opposition is led by a man widely held to be an antisemite.
There is racism on all sides of politics and it must be called out wherever it is found. History has forced our community to be able to spot extremism as it emerges — and Jeremy Corbyn’s election as Labour leader in 2015 is one such example.
Throughout his career, he has allied with and supported antisemites such as Paul Eisen, Stephen Sizer and Raed Salah. He has described organisations like Hamas, whose founding charter commits it to the extermination of every Jew on the planet, as his “friends”. He has laid a wreath to honour terrorists who have murdered Jews. He has insulted “Zionists” — the word used by antisemites when they mean “Jew” because they think it allows them to get away with it — as lacking understanding of “English irony”.
There were some who hoped that he might change as leader. The opposite has happened. The near total inaction of Mr Corbyn and the rest of the Labour leadership in dealing with antisemites in the party has both emboldened them and encouraged others.
Indeed, Mr Corbyn and his allies have actively impeded action against the racists.
Instead of listening to and learning from mainstream Jewish bodies such as the Board of Deputies and Jewish Leadership Council, Mr Corbyn has treated them and their recommendations with contempt — and given support to fringe organisations set up solely to deny the existence of Labour antisemitism.
Is it any wonder Jews worry about the prospect of Mr Corbyn as prime minister?
Yet, while we see all this, we also see an election being fought in which antisemitism in the Labour Party, inspired by its leader, is mentioned only occasionally as an afterthought. Brexit, austerity, the NHS, education and myriad other issues are, of course, vital. But how can the racist views of a party leader — and the deep fear he inspires among an ethnic minority — not be among the most fundamental of issues?
That is why we are seeking your attention. If this man is chosen as our next prime minister, the message will be stark: that our dismay that he could ever be elevated to a prominent role in British politics, and our fears of where that will lead, are irrelevant.
We will have to conclude that those fears and dismay count for nothing.
But we think you do care.
We believe that the overwhelming majority of British people abhor racism.We ask only that, when you cast your vote,you act on that.

I'm not sure what the background of the "87% of British Jews consider Corbyn to be an antisemite" is, but if it's even remotely robust then it's incredibly damning.

So the choice we're left with is a vile Conservative party, a Labour party led by somebody who is likely a racist, or some other party which in the majority of seats will play into the hands of the conservatives.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 07, 2019, 10:47:06 am
Toby - what is radical about the LP's manifesto plans? Its not out yet so is this based on rumour/whats come out so far?

For the Tory party - their plans sound very radical (incredibly so for a con govt) - generation of the biggest state machine since the last Labour Govt... lots of public spending...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 07, 2019, 10:56:05 am
The front page of the Jewish Chronicle today:

Quote
The vast majority of British Jews consider Jeremy Corbyn to be an antisemite. In the most recent poll, last month, the figure was 87 per cent.
Putting oneself in the shoes of another person, or another group, can be difficult. But we believe it is important — and urgent — that you do that. Perhaps the fact that nearly half (47 per cent) of the Jewish community said in that same poll that they would “seriously consider” emigrating if Mr Corbyn wins on December 12 will give you an indication of what it feels like to be a British Jew at a time when the official opposition is led by a man widely held to be an antisemite.
There is racism on all sides of politics and it must be called out wherever it is found. History has forced our community to be able to spot extremism as it emerges — and Jeremy Corbyn’s election as Labour leader in 2015 is one such example.
Throughout his career, he has allied with and supported antisemites such as Paul Eisen, Stephen Sizer and Raed Salah. He has described organisations like Hamas, whose founding charter commits it to the extermination of every Jew on the planet, as his “friends”. He has laid a wreath to honour terrorists who have murdered Jews. He has insulted “Zionists” — the word used by antisemites when they mean “Jew” because they think it allows them to get away with it — as lacking understanding of “English irony”.
There were some who hoped that he might change as leader. The opposite has happened. The near total inaction of Mr Corbyn and the rest of the Labour leadership in dealing with antisemites in the party has both emboldened them and encouraged others.
Indeed, Mr Corbyn and his allies have actively impeded action against the racists.
Instead of listening to and learning from mainstream Jewish bodies such as the Board of Deputies and Jewish Leadership Council, Mr Corbyn has treated them and their recommendations with contempt — and given support to fringe organisations set up solely to deny the existence of Labour antisemitism.
Is it any wonder Jews worry about the prospect of Mr Corbyn as prime minister?
Yet, while we see all this, we also see an election being fought in which antisemitism in the Labour Party, inspired by its leader, is mentioned only occasionally as an afterthought. Brexit, austerity, the NHS, education and myriad other issues are, of course, vital. But how can the racist views of a party leader — and the deep fear he inspires among an ethnic minority — not be among the most fundamental of issues?
That is why we are seeking your attention. If this man is chosen as our next prime minister, the message will be stark: that our dismay that he could ever be elevated to a prominent role in British politics, and our fears of where that will lead, are irrelevant.
We will have to conclude that those fears and dismay count for nothing.
But we think you do care.
We believe that the overwhelming majority of British people abhor racism.We ask only that, when you cast your vote,you act on that.

I'm not sure what the background of the "87% of British Jews consider Corbyn to be an antisemite" is, but if it's even remotely robust then it's incredibly damning.

So the choice we're left with is a vile Conservative party, a Labour party led by somebody who is likely a racist, or some other party which in the majority of seats will play into the hands of the conservatives.

I think your last point is currently rather an unknown quantity, and depends on constituency. I live in a safe Labour seat, with absolutely no chance of the conservatives doing well. The liberal democrats nearly won in 2010 (majority labour 165) but in 2017 labour had a huge margin. I think ukip have done better than the conservatives here. I'll probably vote LD
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 07, 2019, 11:02:10 am
Toby - what is radical about the LP's manifesto plans? Its not out yet so is this based on rumour/whats come out so far?

For the Tory party - their plans sound very radical (incredibly so for a con govt) - generation of the biggest state machine since the last Labour Govt... lots of public spending...

Renationalisation? Tax reform? Wealth redistribution? Free social care and prescriptions? Setting up a body to supply medication to the NHS? I'm just going on what Corbyn, McDonnell and others have said in interview and speeches
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nutty on November 07, 2019, 11:57:45 am
I live in a currently Conservative constituency, held in 2017 by a 2,876 majority. Labour second, Lib Dems a distant third (5.9% of the vote), Greens fourth and lost their deposit. Historically was Labour in 2005 and switched to Conservative in 2010. I've voted Labour, Lib Dems and Greens in the past depending on the election and constituency I was living in at the time.

I'd vote Green under a PR system, but under FPTP it seems hopeless and counter-productive to do so. It's not confirmed if they'll actually field a candidate in our constituency. So do I hold my nose and vote for the party led by an anti-semite against the party led by a racist? If you wanted to design a system to engender disillusion in politics, FPTP would be a good starting point.

Maybe life is simpler and happier if you're one of the unthinking masses who vote for who their Dad voted for, and their Grandfather before them?



Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 07, 2019, 12:02:45 pm
I live in a currently Conservative constituency, held in 2017 by a 2,876 majority. Labour second, Lib Dems a distant third (5.9% of the vote), Greens fourth and lost their deposit. Historically was Labour in 2005 and switched to Conservative in 2010. I've voted Labour, Lib Dems and Greens in the past depending on the election and constituency I was living in at the time.

I'd vote Green under a PR system, but under FPTP it seems hopeless and counter-productive to do so. It's not confirmed if they'll actually field a candidate in our constituency. So do I hold my nose and vote for the party led by an anti-semite against the party led by a racist? If you wanted to design a system to engender disillusion in politics, FPTP would be a good starting point.

Maybe life is simpler and happier if you're one of the unthinking masses who vote for who their Dad voted for, and their Grandfather before them?

Yeah, that's a difficult one, perfectly illustrates how much better anything but FPTP would be for smaller parties. Unfortunately, that would also mean Farage would do better as well as the greens etc.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: seankenny on November 07, 2019, 12:06:08 pm
I thought this thread on Labour  anti-semitism was good:
https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1191306714756386816

Basically - how can they implement their project if they can’t deal with this problem in their own party? And it is a problem for them, as it’s going to cost seats they can ill afford to lose. If Corbyn and co are so bunker-minded as to blame others for their own problems then how will they cope when their plans go awry, which is what plans tend to do.

Note that Johnson is no better and I’d like to agree with Matt that a minority Labour govt would be okay. But to think that would be to trash the concerns of a minority community.

Many Labour people do not see the depth of anger and unhappiness many of us feel at this choice that they have fostered on us. That to me is also very concerning.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 07, 2019, 12:34:24 pm
If you read my posts on the other channel it is pretty clear how angry I am about Labour dealing with their antisemitism. However the problems with racism in the tory party seem to me to be significantly worse, especially with Islamophobia. Labour are showing some signs of improvement... Chris Williamson is no longer able to stand as a Labour MP for instance. In a minority government they will probably have to work with some of the MPs who left because of antisemitism.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on November 07, 2019, 12:39:35 pm
Unfortunately, that would also mean Farage would do better as well as the greens etc.

I don’t see this as a real problem at all, the disenfranchisement of people who believe in Farage’s politics is as much of an issue as Green supporters. They got 3.8 million votes in 2015 and one seat, that sort of lack of representation has surely lead to many of the issues we are seeing today.

You can’t do much with a 15% share of parliament on your own but at least those people would see they were getting a voice then and the be less likely to go for protest style votes for other matters.

Our democracy should be representative, not just representative of things we like.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 07, 2019, 12:41:30 pm
If you read my posts on the other channel it is pretty clear how angry I am about Labour dealing with their antisemitism. However the problems with racism in the tory party seem to me to be significantly worse, especially with Islamophobia. Labour are showing some signs of improvement... Chris Williamson is no longer able to stand as a Labour MP for instance. In a minority government they will probably have to work with some of the MPs who left because of antisemitism.

You know what the difference is?

Labour are meant to inclusive, we all know Tories are likely racist and intolerant (or, at least, we expect them to be included in the party’s “broad church”), so no shock when they blurt it out...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: seankenny on November 07, 2019, 12:41:48 pm
If you read my posts on the other channel it is pretty clear how angry I am about Labour dealing with their antisemitism. However the problems with racism in the tory party seem to me to be significantly worse, especially with Islamophobia. Labour are showing some signs of improvement... Chris Williamson is no longer able to stand as a Labour MP for instance. In a minority government they will probably have to work with some of the MPs who left because of antisemitism.

I’m sure some individuals are angry about it but the noises coming from prominent Labour people are utterly pathetic.

I am also disgusted that anyone from Labour is using the most radicalised, far right Conservative Party I’ve ever seen as some kind of benchmark. Labour should always be ahead of the Tories on this issue, but right now it’s two men wrestling in a gutter and one being proud they are slightly less covered in shit.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 07, 2019, 01:05:37 pm
Exactly. The defence for Labour that is always trotted out is that the Tories have more complaints of anti-semitism or islamophobia. As a voter this is not a concern for me as I have not and do not intend to vote Conservative.

We're always going to have racists joining political parties. The test I'm interested in is how that is dealt with by the party. Are these people kicked out or are they given a slap on the wrist? Labour are currently relatively tolerant of anti-semitism within the party and that is dire. I have not taken the time to look at the Conservatives discipline procedures and how they are being enacted but I would be interested to see how their record compares with Labour's.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 07, 2019, 01:20:16 pm
Exactly. The defence for Labour that is always trotted out is that the Tories have more complaints of anti-semitism or islamophobia. As a voter this is not a concern for me as I have not and do not intend to vote Conservative.

We're always going to have racists joining political parties. The test I'm interested in is how that is dealt with by the party. Are these people kicked out or are they given a slap on the wrist? Labour are currently relatively tolerant of anti-semitism within the party and that is dire. I have not taken the time to look at the Conservatives discipline procedures and how they are being enacted but I would be interested to see how their record compares with Labour's.

Well, that’s easy to answer.

The Cons have a strict policy of punishing  their worst offenders by sidelining them into minor roles.

Like “Leader of the house”
Or, “Prime Minister”.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on November 07, 2019, 01:31:13 pm
Whatever the case, I'm not sure that "my side's racists aren't as bad as the other lot's racists" is exactly occupying the intellectual or moral high ground is it?

One thing that occurred to me earlier - and this would never happen of course - but wouldn't a route out of this have been a General Election and a Second Referendum?

Each side can then state their position on Brexit were it to come out as the chosen option in the 2nd Ref - presumably Cons Boris' deal, Labour some kind of softish option, Lib Dems maybe customs union etc.

That way the electorate can vote on the domestic issues that matter as well as taking account of what flavour of Brexit they want should they be a leaver, and it removes the current stuff around the Remain vote being split (or the Leave one for that matter where the Brexit Party are in a marginal Con / Lab seat).




Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 07, 2019, 01:58:19 pm
Oh do stop being sensible and proposing workable solutions.

You know nobody ever votes for those things.


(You are right, of course).

I see that, having suppressed the Russia report, the Gov are now suppressing the OBR report.

I wonder why?

Do you think it might agree with the TUC assessment?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 08, 2019, 09:50:25 am
 https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/08/jacob-rees-mogg-billionaires-labour-values?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1573198750 (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/08/jacob-rees-mogg-billionaires-labour-values?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1573198750)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 08, 2019, 01:28:10 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/08/jacob-rees-mogg-billionaires-labour-values?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1573198750 (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/08/jacob-rees-mogg-billionaires-labour-values?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1573198750)

I'm not sure that Young is saying anything more insightful here than my team's better than your team, and the points about partiality in the media are from an extremely partial standpoint. I tend to think that the BBC get it right as they get criticised by both sides. Emma Barnett is a good interviewer, and certainly challenges Conservatives as much as she does Labour or Lib Dems.

Despite what I've said, I agree that jrm shows an unpleasant superiority and is woefully out of touch. However he might be more meaningfully compared with the unpleasant superiority shown by the Labour hard left some of whom tout their 'working class' credentials despite being handsomely paid and privately educated.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 09, 2019, 09:14:28 am
Many Jews want Boris Johnson out. But how can we vote for Jeremy Corbyn?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/09/jews-brexit-boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 09, 2019, 03:15:06 pm
I'd argue the chances of Corbyn standing down may be as likely in any workable minority Labour coalition as with a Boris majority (where the left of Labour will likely double down on their fears and feel the need to fight harder).

On a different topic, a leading tory campaigner now hints Corbyn might shoot the rich.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-50319640/general-election-2019-zahawi-on-corbyn-and-stalin-claims

While the great campaigner Boris also seems to hide from voters:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/08/shifty-shades-of-may-boris-johnson-dodges-voters-in-week-of-election-hell

Plus for a bit of election jollity we have poppygate.

https://www.indy100.com/article/jacob-rees-mogg-poppy-remembrance-sunday-general-election-9194586

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 11, 2019, 12:48:03 pm
I wonder whether Farage deciding to only contest Labour seats means a probable Conservative majority?

Surely, however, if the LDs do ok and take some incumbent Conservative seats these are the ones that the Conservatives really need to win?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 11, 2019, 01:08:00 pm
I wonder whether Farage deciding to only contest Labour seats means a probable Conservative majority?

Surely, however, if the LDs do ok and take some incumbent Conservative seats these are the ones that the Conservatives really need to win?

Still splits the Tory/brexit vote in non Tory seats...

But what a snake Farage is...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 11, 2019, 01:23:43 pm
I think he was waiting to be paid off.
How they paid him off, I don’t know, but his company is probably looking healthy.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 11, 2019, 04:40:19 pm
Paranoia among Corbyn fanboys and girls is ratcheting up. Just have a google for Wreathgate if you want a good chortle (and then a cry as you realise what's become of people).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on November 11, 2019, 05:37:15 pm
 ::) Dire at every level. Twitter/insta/fb has rotted people's minds to leave mush.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 11, 2019, 06:35:26 pm
Not a fanboy, nor a follower, nor a cultist... a supporter.  Language leads the narrative and the majority of language used around the Labour Party and JC on here very much says that the narrative has been driven well home.

Anyone care to have a stab at explaining why the BBC chose to use footage from a previous Remembrance Day Mr Johnson attended rather than the one that happened yesterday?  (Or am I just being a paranoid conspiracy theorist?)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 11, 2019, 08:33:44 pm
Not a fanboy, nor a follower, nor a cultist... a supporter.  Language leads the narrative and the majority of language used around the Labour Party and JC on here very much says that the narrative has been driven well home.

Anyone care to have a stab at explaining why the BBC chose to use footage from a previous Remembrance Day Mr Johnson attended rather than the one that happened yesterday?  (Or am I just being a paranoid conspiracy theorist?)

No, not paranoid at all.
I think the BBC see Labour as an existential threat (to the BBC), in it’s current form and the Tories, slightly less so. That, coupled with a Tory stacked boardroom (after a decade of Tory Gov appointing) make the Beeb about as reliable as the rest of the media.

Have you seen the side by side Express front pages, doing the rounds of FB? One story trumpeting Bojo’s plan to boost the economy with a minium wage rise to Ł10.50 (living) and another lamenting Corbyn’s plan to destroy the country by raising minimum wage to Ł10...

Pete, again, has hit the nail on the dog’s bollocks, right down the middle, hole in one.

The media has always been so, it’s just so damn rapid fire now. Sustained fire, to boot. Facebook and Twitter have thrust it into every coffee break or shit stop.


Anyway, you don’t have to be a fan boy, or cultist, to support JC; but there are quite a few for whom those descriptions seem appropriate.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 11, 2019, 09:40:04 pm
Yes indeed.  We quit paying the license fee and watching the BBC a long while ago.

There is huge imbalance in reporting in the MSM and there are now plenty of academic studies to back this up if it’s not possible for folk to notice this for themselves.

RE the Express:  It’s an incredible level of hypocrisy and double speak that can be seen straight through by most but then if I were to point this out to certain members of my family and friends it’s like there’s a bypass installed that prevents clear thought!

A few thoughts from a Labour supporter...  You aren’t voting for JC, you’re voting for a set of policies and more importantly for someone to become your local MP.  Our candidate is a local GP who cares massively about protecting the NHS and the environment.  She is an active campaigner locally and will clearly represent her constituents very well should she be elected.  I will vote for her and am actively campaigning for her.

Examples of language that annoys the hell out of me.  ‘Hard/ far left’-UK politics has shifted to the right so much that what would be considered moderate policies, in Scandinavia, are treated like they are straight from a communist doctrine.  This is not far left.
‘Moderates’ used to describe corporate sponsored careerist MPs such as Chuka.  There is nothing moderate about these folk.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 11, 2019, 11:09:05 pm
It seems that to many people, 'biased' has become a shorthand for anyone who says things that you don't like.

I'd disagree strongly about the BBC, they employ many, many extremely good journalists. Britain generally had an exceptionally good and vigorous media in all forms. The newspapers all have their particular slants but everyone knows what these are.
If you want an example of actual problematic media, I was working in Malaysia when the Arab spring uprisings happened, absolutely never mentioned in any Malaysian news sources, despite other reports about the region.

Trying to say that the BBC is the equivalent of RT helps noone.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 12, 2019, 03:23:15 am
It seems that to many people, 'biased' has become a shorthand for anyone who says things that you don't like.

I'd disagree strongly about the BBC, they employ many, many extremely good journalists. Britain generally had an exceptionally good and vigorous media in all forms. The newspapers all have their particular slants but everyone knows what these are.
If you want an example of actual problematic media, I was working in Malaysia when the Arab spring uprisings happened, absolutely never mentioned in any Malaysian news sources, despite other reports about the region.

Trying to say that the BBC is the equivalent of RT helps noone.

Which is not what was said...

It’s rather hard to fathom, any reason beyond bias, that Auntie Beeb should run a video clip of Bojo laying a wreath in 2016, rather than the actual 2019 event.
Just because he laid it upside down in 2019.
A silly little gaff, that really didn’t need such a dramatic cover up.

I quite often start the day, with the BBC news app and the Sky app. Of the two, I’d say the BBC app has more cant than Sky. Subtle, but present and not truly dispassionate. Whilst it’s fair to say “nothing is without some bias” the Beeb has taken a position, and I don’t think i should have any leaning.

I am aware of what fully state controlled media looks like, I didn’t suggest it applied to the BBC.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: gme on November 12, 2019, 07:12:05 am
The BBC thing is pretty amusing if anyone has friends sitting on both sides of the political spectrum. My Tory supporting friends hate the left wing bias that the beeb trots out and can quote example after example of how the left wing luvvies control the BBC.
Speak to my labour supporting friends and you get the same argument from the other side.
Makes me think they do actually sit somewhere in the middle. A relatively balanced set of scales.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 12, 2019, 07:41:51 am
The BBC thing is pretty amusing if anyone has friends sitting on both sides of the political spectrum. My Tory supporting friends hate the left wing bias that the beeb trots out and can quote example after example of how the left wing luvvies control the BBC.
Speak to my labour supporting friends and you get the same argument from the other side.
Makes me think they do actually sit somewhere in the middle. A relatively balanced set of scales.

I totally agree.  Matt, I wasn't saying that you were implying the BBC was analogous to state controlled media, re the wreath I assume someone probably thought it would be respectful to try to avoid a controversy about armistice day, probably a misjudgment but there you go. It's a thousand times better than most us networks imho.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 12, 2019, 09:43:28 am
I think the BBC has just become deliberately bland on nearly all of its main news broadcasting (after decades of political battering). You usually need to dig in the webpage or watch the back end of Newsnight to get proper journalism.

A bit more analysis on Farage.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/11/nigel-farage-move-may-not-help-tories-as-much-as-it-first-appears

I agree its bad news for the Lib Dems in tory marginals and good news for Labour in their marginals. However there are signs of some big shifts in some southern constituencies.

Two examples:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/09/dominic-grieve-campaign-trail-beaconsfield

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/09/luciana-berger-lib-dems-finchley-golders-green-remain-voters
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: SamT on November 12, 2019, 10:14:13 am
, re the wreath I assume someone probably thought it would be respectful to try to avoid a controversy about armistice day, probably a misjudgment but there you go.

Ask yourself if, though, it had been Corbyn who'd laid a wreath upside down, or whatever gaff Bojo dropped, would the beeb have reported on it, let alone has to be so kind as to 'cover it up' with some old footage #fakenews.   :-\

Its the little things round the edges that expose the beebs 'slant' (as Matt so aptly puts it) on things.

You couldn't accuse them of being outright biased, but they definitely seem to have an anti corbyn slant.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: IanP on November 12, 2019, 10:52:10 am
Not a very big cover-up:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-50374630

I tend to be with Toby on this one - the BBC seems to be to work pretty well as a pretty neutral and trustworthy mainstream source of news.  If anything it may have a tendency to the liberal (with small 'l') middle ground which may be why supporters of both the main parties (who currently are respectively more left and right wing than they have been in a generation) seem to see bias.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Fiend on November 12, 2019, 11:01:30 am
I think some people confuse "lack of anti-Tory bias" with "pro-Tory bias".

If the BBC have a pro-Tory bias then they'd doing a shit job of it as the news website often presents the Tory leadership as making complete tits of themselves without any help needed.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Andy B on November 12, 2019, 01:04:11 pm
What percentage of current BBC presenters, editors and correspondents are ex-conservatives?
From memory, there are: Nick Robinson, Andrew Neil, Evan Davis, Matthew Paris (he may not be with the bbc anymore, I can’t remember), Laura keunessberg (has had to apologise for Tory bias is the past), all in senior positions.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 12, 2019, 01:13:40 pm
, re the wreath I assume someone probably thought it would be respectful to try to avoid a controversy about armistice day, probably a misjudgment but there you go.

Ask yourself if, though, it had been Corbyn who'd laid a wreath upside down, or whatever gaff Bojo dropped, would the beeb have reported on it, let alone has to be so kind as to 'cover it up' with some old footage #fakenews.   :-\
You couldn't accuse them of being outright biased, but they definitely seem to have an anti corbyn slant.

Nah I still disagree, I think they would have steered clear of anything that appeared to mock armistice day / remembrance day ceremonies. I really disagree that they're biased against Corbyn. They've been very thorough in repeatedly debunking the government's assessment of labour spending commitments, and questioning them not publishing the Russian enquiry reports recently.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 12, 2019, 01:25:12 pm
What percentage of current BBC presenters, editors and correspondents are ex-conservatives?
From memory, there are: Nick Robinson, Andrew Neil, Evan Davis, Matthew Paris (he may not be with the bbc anymore, I can’t remember), Laura keunessberg (has had to apologise for Tory bias is the past), all in senior positions.

Irrelevant as I think that they're generally extremely professional and questioning of politicians of all hues. Anyhow, Matthew Paris has written recently and repeatedly about how Johnson is unfit to be PM, he's left the Conservative party and is voting Liberal Democrat.

If you talk to staunch conservatives, they'll say the BBC are all woke lefty liberal pacifists.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Andy B on November 12, 2019, 04:21:43 pm
What percentage of current BBC presenters, editors and correspondents are ex-conservatives?
From memory, there are: Nick Robinson, Andrew Neil, Evan Davis, Matthew Paris (he may not be with the bbc anymore, I can’t remember), Laura keunessberg (has had to apologise for Tory bias is the past), all in senior positions.

Irrelevant as I think that they're generally extremely professional and questioning of politicians of all hues.

That doesn’t answer my question. Plus just because you think they are professional doesn’t necessarily mean it is the case. See above re. Keunessberg’s (not sure on spelling, sorry) previous with regard to bias.

...Anyhow, Matthew Paris has written recently and repeatedly about how Johnson is unfit to be PM, he's left the Conservative party and is voting Liberal Democrat.

So he’s overtly biased towards the Lib Dems at the moment, and that doesn’t account for any of the others mentioned, or any more that I have forgotten.
My apologies if this has been asked or answered before, but are you a member of the Liberal Democrats Toby?

If you talk to staunch conservatives, they'll say the BBC are all woke lefty liberal pacifists.

Of course they do.
(I do speak to conservatives too, but thanks for the tip  :))
 

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: i.munro on November 12, 2019, 04:33:49 pm

I quite often start the day, with the BBC news app and the Sky app. Of the two, I’d say the BBC app has more cant than Sky. Subtle, but present and not truly dispassionate. Whilst it’s fair to say “nothing is without some bias” the Beeb has taken a position, and I don’t think i should have any leaning.


This applies to the Television news as well. Sky is significantly more to the left (less biassed from my POV) than the BBC. Given how unlikely it is that Sky is actually left-wing biassed given that Murdoch is still AFAIK a significant shareholder I find this very significant.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 12, 2019, 04:52:46 pm
My thoughts are along the lines of Toby's and Ian's. There may be a bit of true bias here and there but it's likely equalled or overshadowed by what bias there is against "the other side". You only need to talk about the BBC to a moderate conservative voter to illicit grumbles about pinko loony lefties running riot in the BBC. You have to feel for the BBC because they simply can't please everybody. Any other media outlet is allowed to have their stance and their bias and it is tolerated and expected, but the BBC have to be spotless and it's nigh on impossible. Especially when you consider their comedy output which is dominated by, erm, comedians, who are almost all to the left of centre.

But what we see day in and day out with the villification of the BBC and their staff is way above and beyond some complaining about a bit of bias. Any time that the BBC scrutinise Jeremy Corbyn or hold him to account there are shrieks of Fake News from Corbyn's left, regardless of whether Johnson's right have been similarly challenged. What's happening is that neither side can cope with being criticised and having their flaws held up to the light. Sound familiar? That's because it happening over the pond, except over there it's the Trump administration who are complaining that the mainstream media is against them.

This is such an incredibly dangerous state of affairs because it all contributes to the post-truth age that we currently live in. If simple facts don't accord with your own sentiment then you can easily dismiss them and choose to believe something else and accuse any rebuttal of being fake. If somebody wants something to be true nowadays, then they need only wish it to be true and it will be. Personally, I'd rather get my news from a journalistic organisation that has professional standards to adhere to than social media, which is awash with so much fake or un-nuanced material that anybody who engages with it uncritically is doomed.

Some examples from my feed over the last few days. Diane Abbott flat out lied on her Twitter feed, saying that Ken Clarke had stated that he wouldn't vote Conservative. This popped up on my Facebook news feed, having been shared by a friend. Moments later, there's a meme that somebody's made of John Bercow: it's a still of him remonstrating in the House and alongside it is a quote from him describing how Jeremy Corbyn had never been anti-semitic towards him, and that no Labour MP had been anti-semitic towards him during his time as an MP. So far, so good - but it completely fails to mention that Bercow's next sentence in the interview that it was lifted from (with the Jewish Chronicle, I believe) stated that the Labour Party has got a problem with anti-semitism.
Then there's memes describing Jo Swinson's voting record - this smear is very easily mitigated if not completely debunked (look up this thread), but it won't be because Labour supporters want to believe that Jo Swinson is pure evil and this fits nicely with their narrative.
Then there's this Wreathgate thing. It all comes so thick and fast and spreads in such a viral way that there's no way to combat it. These indiscretions are relatively minor, but it's so easy to pump out much more damaging misinformation, and it will be believed because people want to believe it. It fits with their narrative.


The Wreath, let's just think about this a moment. If you've not seen the original footage is here: https://twitter.com/dinodaly/status/1194039377372033024.
Is it more credible that:
a) the BBC saw that Boris Johnson made a couple of very minor mistakes that could have happened to anyone - he started walking a few moments too early and then corrected himself; and he laid the wreath upside-down (watch the footage - it's impossible to tell which way is up or down on the footage that we see. It doesn't matter. Nobody would have noticed) and decided to try and deceive the public by swapping in a different bit of footage where: the type of wreath he's holding is totally fucking different, the line up includes Tim Farron who is no longer an opposition party leader, and he looks totally different from the rest of the footage.
or b) somebody in the editing suite chopped in the wrong few seconds of footage in the rush before going to broadcast.

Considering that, if this is indeed a cover-up, the public already had access to the live footage and continue to do so on iPlayer, AND they could have done a much better job by just not showing the bit where he started walking a bit early, AND the mistakes that he made were not even a huge deal, I should have thought it was perfectly obvious to any rational person who still had use of their fucking brains that scenario b is far more likely.

Considering that in the past the BBC has happily broadcast footage of Johnson looking like the complete and utter bellend that he is, does it not seem like the worst and most incompetent cover up that's ever taken place, to cover perhaps Johnson's least embarrasing gaffe? In the past couple of months we've been delighted to plenty of footage of Johnson looking like much worse than a complete buffoon (looking visibly rattled at the lectern in Downing Street while being nearly drowned out by cries of "Stop the Coup" - you do know that the BBC could have edited the sound track on that to make those chants inaudible?), I really don't see why they would try and change that now.


On the point of the BBC having staff who's personal politics are to the right, I say, so fucking what? Do doctors do a shitty job at treating Conservative voters when they present in hospital? Does defending a murderer in court make a lawyer a murderer-sympathiser? No, because it's their duty to put their personalities aside and do their job. The BBC's staff are journalists and it's their job to report in a way that accords with the outlet that they work for. Do you know that columnists can change their tone if they're writing for the Sun or the Independent or the Guardian? Do you know that sometimes journalists move to a different paper or station and alter their writing or editorial? Where they get this wrong (as Kuenssberg did) they get a slapped wrist and they do better in future or they get chucked.
Dare I ask? What should the political outlook of the BBC boardroom and editorial staff look like? Should they have to have a quota of Leaver and Remainer supporters on the staff? Should each story have to be worked on by an equal number of people of each persuasion? This is all madness. Sheer madness.

Mark my words. The irrational and hysterical lack of confidence in our institutions (including the BBC) that we see now will lead us down a very dark path indeed.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: i.munro on November 12, 2019, 05:09:24 pm
My thoughts are along the lines of Toby's and Ian's.


I think you missed my point entirely.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 12, 2019, 05:11:55 pm
My thoughts are along the lines of Toby's and Ian's.


I think you missed my point entirely.

Sorry, I meant the other Ian.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: dunnyg on November 12, 2019, 06:08:35 pm
 Just using whichever ian better supports your narrative at the time. Shocking.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Andy B on November 12, 2019, 06:11:07 pm
That’s an impressively long rant for someone with a small child Will!

... You only need to talk about the BBC to a moderate conservative voter to illicit grumbles about pinko loony lefties running riot in the BBC...
That doesn’t sound like the language of moderate conservatives that I know.

On the point of the BBC having staff who's personal politics are to the right, I say, so fucking what? Do doctors do a shitty job at treating Conservative voters when they present in hospital? Does defending a murderer in court make a lawyer a murderer-sympathiser? No, because it's their duty to put their personalities aside and do their job. The BBC's staff are journalists and it's their job to report in a way that accords with the outlet that they work for..

Yes, I believe people’s views and prejudices have an effect on their work. To suggest otherwise seems to be an incredibly naive view of human behaviour.

....What should the political outlook of the BBC boardroom and editorial staff look like?....

Reasonably balanced, rather than dominated by affiliates of one party or another. Hence my original question. Maybe there are loads of ex labour in senior positions in the BBC politics team. It’s just that the vast majority of the ones I can think of are conservatives. I believe Andrew Marr has indicated leaning towards socialism in his youth, but I can’t think of any others off the top of my head.
I would have thought that a team from a balanced range of backgrounds would appeal to those keen on what is currently regarded as the “centre ground” at the moment.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 12, 2019, 06:36:06 pm
Re: people's personal views affecting their work, actually we do expect people to be able to behave neutrally at work. Example: the judiciary. There's lots you can read and listen to at the moment which shows that the judiciary are currently not doing as well as they should in this regard and they are expected to improve.

I'd be grateful if you could answer some quick questions.

If this hypothetical balanced BBC team appeals to the centre ground (which isn't the same as being unbiased) then won't that piss off those who are left/right/up/down?

I'm interested to know how you know what the political leaning of these BBC employees is? Are they party members? Ex party members? Could you give some examples? Obviously former leanings aren't really relevant. Example: Bercow's softening; Ken Clarke started life with a communist grandfather and left wing leanings.

How should those with the proper political inclination be selected? How will you quantify how left/right/whatever they are? Will there be a test?

How can the BBC do this while remaining compliant with the 2010 Equality Act, under which political beliefs are protected characteristics?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: i.munro on November 12, 2019, 06:49:55 pm

Sorry, I meant the other Ian.

Ah! My apologies.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on November 12, 2019, 07:37:41 pm
Andy B is of course alluding to the coming purge from the ministry of public truth of anyone caught engaging in thoughtcrime. The rats are hungry Winston....


edit: forgot my 1984 terms
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Fultonius on November 12, 2019, 09:42:06 pm
The front page of the Jewish Chronicle today:

Quote
The vast majority of British Jews consider Jeremy Corbyn to be an antisemite. In the most recent poll, last month, the figure was 87 per cent.
Putting oneself in the shoes of another person, or another group, can be difficult. But we believe it is important — and urgent — that you do that. Perhaps the fact that nearly half (47 per cent) of the Jewish community said in that same poll that they would “seriously consider” emigrating if Mr Corbyn wins on December 12 will give you an indication of what it feels like to be a British Jew at a time when the official opposition is led by a man widely held to be an antisemite.
There is racism on all sides of politics and it must be called out wherever it is found. History has forced our community to be able to spot extremism as it emerges — and Jeremy Corbyn’s election as Labour leader in 2015 is one such example.
Throughout his career, he has allied with and supported antisemites such as Paul Eisen, Stephen Sizer and Raed Salah. He has described organisations like Hamas, whose founding charter commits it to the extermination of every Jew on the planet, as his “friends”. He has laid a wreath to honour terrorists who have murdered Jews. He has insulted “Zionists” — the word used by antisemites when they mean “Jew” because they think it allows them to get away with it — as lacking understanding of “English irony”.
There were some who hoped that he might change as leader. The opposite has happened. The near total inaction of Mr Corbyn and the rest of the Labour leadership in dealing with antisemites in the party has both emboldened them and encouraged others.
Indeed, Mr Corbyn and his allies have actively impeded action against the racists.
Instead of listening to and learning from mainstream Jewish bodies such as the Board of Deputies and Jewish Leadership Council, Mr Corbyn has treated them and their recommendations with contempt — and given support to fringe organisations set up solely to deny the existence of Labour antisemitism.
Is it any wonder Jews worry about the prospect of Mr Corbyn as prime minister?
Yet, while we see all this, we also see an election being fought in which antisemitism in the Labour Party, inspired by its leader, is mentioned only occasionally as an afterthought. Brexit, austerity, the NHS, education and myriad other issues are, of course, vital. But how can the racist views of a party leader — and the deep fear he inspires among an ethnic minority — not be among the most fundamental of issues?
That is why we are seeking your attention. If this man is chosen as our next prime minister, the message will be stark: that our dismay that he could ever be elevated to a prominent role in British politics, and our fears of where that will lead, are irrelevant.
We will have to conclude that those fears and dismay count for nothing.
But we think you do care.
We believe that the overwhelming majority of British people abhor racism.We ask only that, when you cast your vote,you act on that.

I'm not sure what the background of the "87% of British Jews consider Corbyn to be an antisemite" is, but if it's even remotely robust then it's incredibly damning.

So the choice we're left with is a vile Conservative party, a Labour party led by somebody who is likely a racist, or some other party which in the majority of seats will play into the hands of the conservatives.

I am so, so sick and tired of the "Corbyn is Antisemitic" trope that gets rolled out time and time again.

Can I take the time to pick some holes in the above:

Quote
The vast majority of British Jews consider Jeremy Corbyn to be an antisemite. In the most recent poll, last month, the figure was 87 per cent.

Can you enlighten us on how many people were surveyed? Last time round, there were only 236000 Jews in the England (around 0.4% of the population). That's not to say their views are not important, but I'm questioning the validity of the poll with such small samples.

Either way, let's take it as a basic premise that "the majority of UK Jewish people feel Corbyn is Antisimitic".

Why do they fell this?

Did the survey ask what their reasoning was?

Did it ask for any examples?

Could they be in any way swayed by an Anti-Corbyn Jewish Press?

Does the fact that "87% of UK Jewish People" feel Corbyn is antisemitic make him one? Don't get me wrong, it clearly shows there is an issue. But is the issue not perhaps one of image?

------------------------

Quote
what it feels like to be a British Jew at a time when the official opposition is led by a man widely held to be an antisemite.
  Widely held? Perhaps widely held in the Jewish community. Can you please point to something that shows this is a widely held opinion across society?


---------------------------

Quote
He has insulted “Zionists” — the word used by antisemites when they mean “Jew” because they think it allows them to get away with it —
This is absolute tosh and I think it needs stamped out right now. Criticising the State of Israel and it's expansionist and apartheid aims is justified and isn't antisemitic. Zionists love to conflate the two, but they are different.

-------------------

Quote
a Labour party led by somebody who is likely a racist
  WHY do you state these things? If he IS racist, SHOW us. I'm open to see it, honestly. I'm no fan of Corbyn, or current Labour (some great MPs aside). But this lazy, baseless repetition of non-facts like this get us no-where.

----------------------

Quote
Instead of listening to and learning from mainstream Jewish bodies such as the Board of Deputies and Jewish Leadership Council, Mr Corbyn has treated them and their recommendations with contempt

Their recommendations included calling any criticism of Israel "antisemitism"...  (as far as I recall).

-----------------------

A question - if Corbyn was to become prime minister, what "things" do Jewish people expect to happen to them? What negative actions could possibly occur? I'm genuinely interested in what Jewish people think may befall them?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Andy B on November 12, 2019, 10:33:44 pm
Re: people's personal views affecting their work, actually we do expect people to be able to behave neutrally at work. Example: the judiciary. There's lots you can read and listen to at the moment which shows that the judiciary are currently not doing as well as they should in this regard and they are expected to improve.

Which seems to illustrate my previous point, that people find it difficult to be impartial even when it’s expected, quite well.

If this hypothetical balanced BBC team appeals to the centre ground (which isn't the same as being unbiased) then won't that piss off those who are left/right/up/down?

If those people don’t want balanced coverage then Yeah probably. I don’t have a problem with that.

I'm interested to know how you know what the political leaning of these BBC employees is? Are they party members? Ex party members? Could you give some examples? Obviously former leanings aren't really relevant. Example: Bercow's softening; Ken Clarke started life with a communist grandfather and left wing leanings.

Nick Robinson: ex president of oxford uni conservative association and ex president of Conservative party youth group
Andrew Neil: former chair of federation of conservative students, worked directly for the Conservative party in the 70s, long history of partisan editorial in the press (changed papers a fair bit but didn’t change his slant mush as far as I can see)
Evan Davis: one of the creators of the poll tax
Laura keunessberg: see above
I think there are others but can’t remember off the top of my head.

How should those with the proper political inclination be selected? How will you quantify how left/right/whatever they are? Will there be a test?

How can the BBC do this while remaining compliant with the 2010 Equality Act, under which political beliefs are protected characteristics?

Before we start drafting personal specifications and job descriptions, you seem to be drifting into an extreme scenario of your own creation.
I have simply asked what percentage of senior political correspondents, editors and presenters are ex/conservatives. Then stated that I think that coverage would be more balanced if the vast majority weren’t conservatives, as they seem to be. The rest (quotas, tests, quantification of left, right, up and down etc) seems to be made up from your outrage at the above. To humour you re. The 2010 equality act, I am by no means knowledgeable on this but I believe that there are exceptions to this that are enacted for all sorts of job roles all the time. But I may be wrong.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: seankenny on November 12, 2019, 11:04:09 pm
Fultonius, if you are that bothered about those questions there are plenty of Jewish writers, on the left, who can answer all those questions for you.

Of course it may be the case that you’re not moved or convinced by minority writers explaining why they feel discriminated against by a major politician. It may just all be a “trope”, all just made up, after all they do that sort of thing, don’t they, minorities with an axe to grind?

And anyhow those Jews have nothing to worry about from us nice sensible Brits. So even if Corbyn did hate them... and become PM... well nothing could possibly happen here, could it?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Fultonius on November 12, 2019, 11:32:34 pm
Hit me with some links and I'll read them. I realise I'm coming into this from a position of relative ignorance. Even just name some of the writers and I'll look them up. You'd be surprised how hard it is to find this stuff through the press dross that comes up top on google.

Quote
And anyhow those Jews have nothing to worry about from us nice sensible Brits. So even if Corbyn did hate them... and become PM... well nothing could possibly happen here, could it?

Again, what, do you really expect to happen? I need this spelled out to me. Can we do this in scenarios? Can you give me a few reasonably foreseeable outcomes if Corbyn becomes PM?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 12, 2019, 11:46:53 pm
Andy, you've listed 4 presenters who, when they were younger, were members of the party or similar. And then you seem to have inferred that the majority of the BBC's editorial team are Tories. This is mad. And even if those people did once hold those views, does that mean that they are incapable of thinking and reporting in an unbiased way? Of course not. Does the BBC need to have background checks to ensure that they don't let in too many people with former right wing tendencies?
Given what you propose this seems inevitable and necessary?


Alistair, its late and I'm on my phone so I can't really go to town with the quote function. But, some thoughts:
It's weird that you seem to suggest that even if lots and lots of Jewish people think that Corbyn is anti-semitic, then it's not really likely unless the belief is held more widely across society. Oddly enough, Jewish people are more likely to be sensitive to anti-semitism and be subjected to it. Similarly, I have never encountered racist abuse against black people personally (away from social media. I mean in real life interactions), yet ask any black person if they've been subjected to racist abuse in person and I bet they'll tell you all sorts of horror stories.

As I said before, I've no idea how that survey was carried out but I'd it's even half right, it's indicative of a huge problem.

It's worth bearing in mind that, although I don't think you did this intentionally, your post is at best easily interpreted as antisemitic or at worst just plain antisemitic. The bit where you say "the State of Israel and it's expansionist and apartheid aims". Have a look at the IHRA definition. I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt and assuming what you meant to say, but this is an example of how people on the left end up coming out with antisemitic stuff. They want to criticise certain policies of Netanyahu's government and they end up calling the state of Israel a racist endeavour.

I'm not sure whether Jeremy Corbyn is an antisemite, but I am sure that antisemites have not been dealt with properly in the Labour Party. That is either due to complicity from Corbyn and his team or a failure of leadership and neither is acceptable.
I recommend spending an hour watching this with an open mind:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0006p8c
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: seankenny on November 12, 2019, 11:49:01 pm
I’m amazed you know enough to know this whole business isn’t true, but not enough to know who is making the counter-arguments. That seems to me a rather one sided understanding.

Try Jonathan Freedland or Nick Cohen for starters.

As for what could happen, let’s consider what has been happening to British Muslims under an institutionally Islamophobic conservative government? A rise in far right crime against them, a general spread of anti-Muslim bigotry and how about the case of Nazanin Ratcliffe? If you were a Jewish journalist or businessman working abroad, would you be confident a Corbyn government had your back?

Then there is also the small issue of racism being normalised, not just against Jews but more widely. If racism is wrong, it’s all wrong. You can’t pick out a minority and ask what could really happen.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 12, 2019, 11:52:39 pm
In reply to whoever asked if I was a member of the Liberal Democrat Party, that's really funny, genuinely. Actually I'm not sure if I've ever voted LD in the past, and am not a member of any party. I think I've voted labour more often than anyone else, when I lived in Leeds I voted for Rachel Reeves who, it seemed was a valuable and conscientious MP with a great deal of economic expertise. I don't think I could vote for my current MP, Paul Blomfield or a Corbyn lead party. Blomfield seems to do little for either local or national politics, and though I think they have some good policies and ideals, I dislike what the party has become.

Will, good post on the BBC. I wanted to say the same thing. The weapon of populists is to try to make people believe they can't trust anything or anyone, thus enabling them to deny anything they do. Trump is trying very, very hard to make this work at the moment. Denouncing the BBC as biased is inaccurate and dangerous, noone can be 100% objective, but they do as well as anyone. Health professionals, and all sorts of professions manage to treat people the same whoever they are and I firmly believe that journalists can do the same.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 13, 2019, 10:52:09 am
Re BBC.

If you compare the BBC and Sky news webpages every morning (I look at both) I find the BBC will more often have the Tory lead as the head item than Sky - and sky are more active in directly challenging both parties promotions.

This was very very clear the day of the 1.2 trillion Tory claim day - where bbc just went with the claims and Sky semi tore them apart.

So whilst I wound y say the bbc were the mouthpiece of the government - they lean closer to them than the LP.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 13, 2019, 12:40:29 pm
What TT said.

Though I’ve been thinking on it more, as to why we seem to have reached different conclusions on their cant.

I don’t watch television news. I read it, as if it were the morning papers, the way TT describes.
(Also, the FT, Torygraph, Groaniard and not-so-Independent).

I think TT is correct on the lead thing, but I also think the BBC site has a (literally) larger emphasis, above the metaphorical fold, on the opinion pieces of the day.
That is frequently Laura, and she is equally frequently, less than impartial; whilst rarely openly partisan.
Her Sky counterpart, is (I think) Kay and she’s a more balanced commentator, in my opinion.

It’s not as if I’m pro-Labour, or even a bit pinkish. Nor am I suggesting a deep blue hue for the Beeb’s colour pieces and articles; merely that they seem to be a delicate, off-white, with a subtle hint of faint Azure.

Obviously, I’ve zeroed in on two particular corespondents, as examples. Probably because I usually get drawn to their columns for reasons I cannot explain, though I feel they are the two that first spring to mind. Figureheads, if you will.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 13, 2019, 12:47:28 pm
There's quite a spectrum of opinions about the BBC. I don't recognise the position that they are the Tory's mouthpiece/all corrupt/blah blah, but I'd like to explore Matt and Tom's take some more. Over the next couple of weeks, could you post some examples, please? Maybe there could be a split thread about Fake News/Media Bias?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 13, 2019, 03:46:44 pm
What TT said.

Though I’ve been thinking on it more, as to why we seem to have reached different conclusions on their cant.

I don’t watch television news. I read it, as if it were the morning papers, the way TT describes.
(Also, the FT, Torygraph, Groaniard and not-so-Independent).

I think TT is correct on the lead thing, but I also think the BBC site has a (literally) larger emphasis, above the metaphorical fold, on the opinion pieces of the day.
That is frequently Laura, and she is equally frequently, less than impartial; whilst rarely openly partisan.
Her Sky counterpart, is (I think) Kay and she’s a more balanced commentator, in my opinion.

It’s not as if I’m pro-Labour, or even a bit pinkish. Nor am I suggesting a deep blue hue for the Beeb’s colour pieces and articles; merely that they seem to be a delicate, off-white, with a subtle hint of faint Azure.

Obviously, I’ve zeroed in on two particular corespondents, as examples. Probably because I usually get drawn to their columns for reasons I cannot explain, though I feel they are the two that first spring to mind. Figureheads, if you will.

Like you I'm a centrist and no fan of Corbyn but I see a clear blue tinge, not that that is a big issue if the journalists remain professional,  yet thats not always true. The biggest example of clear unprofessional behaviour to Corbyn's Labour bias, is Andrew Neil, whom is at times plain rude to anyone left of centre left. His late show interview with Owen Jones about a year ago was embarrassing.

The blandness and bias when dealing with the government  is really annoying at times.  Two examples from the main BBC news today: Gauke, a recent tory minister, stands as an independant and says don't vote for tory brexiters, vote Lib Dem instead, to block a brexiting majority for Boris,  with some clear detail as to why, and Gove is allowed to get away with pure spin in return;  Ashworth announces Labour spending plans for the NHS (a fraction more spending than the tories) and gets repeatedly asked questions on clear bullshit tory propaganda on the costs to the NHS after the election of a 4 day week (which is currently only a proposal for investigation in the following Parliament).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 13, 2019, 04:29:41 pm
I’m quite surprised at the lacklustre labour performances... their activists are certainly geed up - but Corbyn looks like he needs a week off, ashworth today was more bland than an empty student house... where are the big hitters (are there any left?) thornberry, Starmer and err err you know the other ones.

It’s not as if the Tories are dripping with Charisma either - aside from the blonde stupid leader.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Andy B on November 13, 2019, 06:56:07 pm
Andy, you've listed 4 presenters who, when they were younger, were members of the party or similar.
What I actually said was:
Nick Robinson: ex president of oxford uni conservative association and ex president of Conservative party youth group
Andrew Neil: former chair of federation of conservative students, worked directly for the Conservative party in the 70s, long history of partisan editorial in the press (changed papers a fair bit but didn’t change his slant mush as far as I can see)
Evan Davis: one of the creators of the poll tax
Laura keunessberg: see above
I think there are others but can’t remember off the top of my head.
keunessberg’s forced apology is pretty recent, and Andrew neil’s examples of bias are numerous over a long period (see offwidth’s post above and have a read of his wiki entry), and ongoing.
And then you seem to have inferred that the majority of the BBC's editorial team are Tories. This is mad.
What i actually said was:
I have simply asked what percentage of senior political correspondents, editors and presenters are ex/conservatives. Then stated that I think that coverage would be more balanced if the vast majority weren’t conservatives, as they seem to be.
Feel free to list the equivalent ex/labour affiliates in similar positions within the bbc political editorial team if this isn’t the case.
And even if those people did once hold those views, does that mean that they are incapable of thinking and reporting in an unbiased way? Of course not.
As I said:
Yes, I believe people’s views and prejudices have an effect on their work. To suggest otherwise seems to be an incredibly naive view of human behaviour.
This applies to us all.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on November 13, 2019, 07:39:47 pm
Hit me with some links and I'll read them. I realise I'm coming into this from a position of relative ignorance.

I’d say that is pretty obvious.

Let me increase your sample size of British Jews by one Fultonius.

He’s an anti-Semite because he tolerates the most disgusting abuse of Jews in the Labour Party and is utterly blind to the cancer in the Labour Party which has grown since he became leader.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Somebody's Fool on November 13, 2019, 08:29:03 pm
I thought this was a good article explaining why the differing factions of the Labour right, combined with a sympathetic media have seized upon the antisemitism claims and run with it for so long.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/antisemitism-cosmopolitanism-and-politics-of-labour-s-old-and-new-right-wings/ (https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/antisemitism-cosmopolitanism-and-politics-of-labour-s-old-and-new-right-wings/)

That's not to deny there might be some elements of it with party members. However, I've not actually seen any evidence of it yet - and I think we might have done by now considering how much mileage the media got out of Corbyn liking that mural. Whenever it's got to a stage where police have got involved, e.g. Luciana Berger, it's always the far right, not left.

One trick the media often use is to mention, in articles about Labour antisemitism, that Luciana Berger has had people convicted for abuse, without mentioning the affiliation of those involved. It's just left for the reader to make the 'obvious' connection.

Another thing worth looking at is the film The Lobby by al jazeera on youtube. From the incident at conference caught on undercover footage, it's quite apparent that the likes of Joan Ryan and Chuka Umuna are looking to create incidents where there aren't any.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 13, 2019, 08:37:36 pm
...Ashworth announces Labour spending plans for the NHS (a fraction more spending than the tories) and gets repeatedly asked questions on clear bullshit tory propaganda on the costs to the NHS after the election of a 4 day week (which is currently only a proposal for investigation in the following Parliament).

I think you have a point,  although on a lot of the BBC coverage when they've brought  the fact check guy in, they've been clear that the Labour NHS plans are significantly better planned and specific,  (although they contain no reform, which I think is rather odd) whereas the conservative plans are rather woolly non specific and seem to be constructed as though to be reneged. I think,  however that there is a valuable point to be made in that the ideological aims of the 32hr week and an expanded health service need very careful consideration,  as they are bordering on  impossible without a considerably expanded workforce. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 13, 2019, 10:15:04 pm
I thought this was a good article explaining why the differing factions of the Labour right, combined with a sympathetic media have seized upon the antisemitism claims and run with it for so long.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/antisemitism-cosmopolitanism-and-politics-of-labour-s-old-and-new-right-wings/ (https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/antisemitism-cosmopolitanism-and-politics-of-labour-s-old-and-new-right-wings/)


I honestly don't even know where to begin with that. Was it written in Jezza's own bunker? It obsesses over smearing anybody who might not agree with Corbyn and talks very little about antisemitism - only coming to it in the most roundabout fashion. I'm surprised to see such an article linked on the same page that people are complaining about media bias.

I'm also surprised that more fuss hasn't been made over Fultonius' post. It starts off being completely outraged by claims of Corbyn being antisemitic and then launches headlong into a post which argues that the Jewish population is not capable of identifying antisemitic behaviour, uses careless wording that alludes to the antisemitic idea that the press is controlled by Jewish interests ("Could they be in any way swayed by an Anti-Corbyn Jewish Press?"), and then caps it all by describing the aims of the state of Israel as "apartheid".

You couldn't make it up.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Somebody's Fool on November 13, 2019, 10:41:25 pm
I suppose if you've never read anything pro-Corbynism, it might come as a bit of a shock.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 13, 2019, 11:00:59 pm
I suppose if you've never read anything pro-Corbynism, it might come as a bit of a shock.

Hmmm. I do have time for some of Corbyn's policies and qualities. That wasn't really a pro-Corbyn article though. It wasn't selling the benefits of a Corbyn-led party. It was an anti-everything-else article. You say Labour Right, I say centrist, potato, potAto - whatever you want to call it, it was anti-that.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 13, 2019, 11:20:43 pm
I thought this was a good article explaining why the differing factions of the Labour right, combined with a sympathetic media have seized upon the antisemitism claims and run with it for so long.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/antisemitism-cosmopolitanism-and-politics-of-labour-s-old-and-new-right-wings/ (https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/antisemitism-cosmopolitanism-and-politics-of-labour-s-old-and-new-right-wings/)

That's not to deny there might be some elements of it with party members.

No shit. It really worries me if anyone reads stuff like this and then writes the BBC off as biased. If the Labour left doesn't have a serious issue with antisemitism,  why are they so coy about doing anything about it, why didn't they kick out Chris Williamson straight away,  and why are they being investigated?

Anyway,  this is an election thread not a labour party thread. In better news, hopefully a few less people in South Yorkshire will vote for Johnson now, since hes made a balls up of responding to the floods. Anyone with any interest in political transparency cannot be considering voting Conservative,  in my view,  the government seems adamant that it'll refuse to publish anything which could be embarrassing; seems similar to their tactics of just pulling out of votes in the commons that they thought that they'd lose.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Fultonius on November 13, 2019, 11:23:01 pm
I thought this was a good article explaining why the differing factions of the Labour right, combined with a sympathetic media have seized upon the antisemitism claims and run with it for so long.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/antisemitism-cosmopolitanism-and-politics-of-labour-s-old-and-new-right-wings/ (https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/antisemitism-cosmopolitanism-and-politics-of-labour-s-old-and-new-right-wings/)


I honestly don't even know where to begin with that. Was it written in Jezza's own bunker? It obsesses over smearing anybody who might not agree with Corbyn and talks very little about antisemitism - only coming to it in the most roundabout fashion. I'm surprised to see such an article linked on the same page that people are complaining about media bias.

I'm also surprised that more fuss hasn't been made over Fultonius' post. It starts off being completely outraged by claims of Corbyn being antisemitic and then launches headlong into a post which argues that the Jewish population is not capable of identifying antisemitic behaviour, uses careless wording that alludes to the antisemitic idea that the press is controlled by Jewish interests ("Could they be in any way swayed by an Anti-Corbyn Jewish Press?"), and then caps it all by describing the aims of the state of Israel as "apartheid".

You couldn't make it up.

Thanks for the massive misrepresentation there Will, Bravo!

1. Of course the Jewish population can identify cases of antisemitism. In fact, I'd argue they are best placed to. Hope that's clear.

2. Apologies for poor wording. I was NOT trying to imply the media is "Jewish run", but "The Jewish Chronicle" certainly is. I have absolutely no allusions to the mainstream press being "Jewish Controlled" Hope that is also clear. Tell me, is the Jewish press pro-Corbyn?

3. What else can you call the forced occupation of the West Bank? Peaceful harmony? What do British Jews think of what's going on out there? Good times and parties?

Now, on to the meat of what I am alluding to. Let me try to state this is no uncertain terms.

Antisemitism still occurs in the UK. It shouldn't. I don't have the links to hand, but I distinctly remember some analysis of "antisemitic attitudes in the Labour party" showing that by and large Labour members displayed less antisemitic attitudes than either the conservatives or the UK as a whole. Prove that wrong if you can.

Let's put this another way, a good proportion of leave voters in Brexit did so swayed by the media, not based on fact or good reasoning. This stuff happens. 
Labour and Corbyn cleary have some issues with stamping out antisemitism (even if it already lower than the uk average), but is it a wild assertion to think that this would become politically weaponised? That it would be used, relentlessly, by a media (not controlled by Jews may I add), that are hell bent on keeping him out?

Jews may get more than their fair share of abuse (fair share being none, clearly), but as a whole, in the UK, they earn significantly more, live longer, are better represented in politics (around 8 times higher than their percentage of population would predict), so you could hardly call the Jewish community "oppressed".

Back to point 1. What I really meant was you cannot, without solid verifiable evidence, state "I am X, and because I am X, and I feel that Y is anti-X, it so follows that Y is anti X.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Boogster on November 14, 2019, 07:46:20 am
On Corbyn and anti-Semitism: I don't think he's a raging racist, but I find this  pretty hard to account for. Frankly I suspect he falls into the just-a-bit-dim camp.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/28/antisemitism-open-your-eyes-jeremy-corbyn-labour
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Fultonius on November 14, 2019, 07:49:48 am
I'm just going to put this out there for consideration : https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/11/putting-fear-of-corbyns-labour-in-perspective

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 14, 2019, 07:56:02 am
Some strong views here but maybe we could agree that the LP has not really handled recent antisemitism issues as well as it could have and that the right wing press have exploited this issue. Certainly more than the reporting on the torys islamaphobia issues
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Mike Highbury on November 14, 2019, 08:56:14 am
I'm just going to put this out there for consideration : https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/11/putting-fear-of-corbyns-labour-in-perspective

This is becoming an argument more typical of Another Place, 'I don't care what you say because here's some Jews that agree with me so I must be right'.

And, not saying that it happened in this instance but you do know that The Guardian solicits letters to provide balance and so as to not frighten its horses away?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 14, 2019, 10:04:40 am
However precisely anyone tries to define the exact amount of antisemitism within the labour party in relation to a national average of antisemitism,  or how it's not as bad as Islamophobia within the  conservative party, it seems like a pretty feeble argument to get anyone to vote for them.

Frankly I'd really rather it be taken as a given that politicians didn't tolerate racial hatred,  and hear someone present a decent policy on reforming health and social care or transport.
That might be possible if the country hadn't politically wasted the last three years pissing about arguing about how to divorce ourselves from the only thing that's propping up the UK's international influence. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: duncan on November 14, 2019, 03:42:49 pm
Call yourself an impartial journalist? (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0004f5s)  Jonathan Coffey, a BBC journalist, asks what impartiality now means for broadcasters in a polarised society (NB contains some Rod Little).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 14, 2019, 06:03:53 pm
 :worms: not sure I wanna get involved in this.  A couple of questions though, if the prevalence of antisemitism is lower in the LP than in the general public as a whole, as well as being lower than in other political parties why the great big hoo ha surrounding the LP alone and why not the same level of scrutiny/vilification for other the other parties (who seem to be doing nothing about the anti-Semitic crisis that must exist and is clearly more of a crisis for them given the higher level of prevalence?

Also take issue with the idea that it is only the right wing media that are attacking the LP in this area.... :-\  Unless we are accepting the fact the majority of mainstream media is right wing (which I would quite happily set out the argument for had Chomsky not already done so convincingly in The Manufacture of Consent).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on November 14, 2019, 07:03:47 pm

3. What else can you call the forced occupation of the West Bank? Peaceful harmony? What do British Jews think of what's going on out there? Good times and parties?

You are coming out with some rather unsavoury posts Fultonius.

Not only are you insulting me with this comment (if you want to know what I think of events in the West Bank, search for my arguments on here with Sloper) - but much more importantly- using the racist's the age-old trick of trying to make an ethnic group somehow complicit in the actions of a foreign state.


You reminded me of Derek Hatton's  2012 tweet:
“Jewish people with any sense of humanity need to start speaking out publicly against the ruthless murdering being carried out by Israel!” (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/derek-hatton-suspended-from-labour-over-tweet)


The journalist Hannah Parkinson puts it well:
The intellectual vacuity of antisemites, unable to distinguish between Netanyahu’s government and past Israeli administrations and an entire group of historically oppressed people, or their right to a homeland, continues to take the breath away.  (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/19/the-return-of-king-rat-derek-hatton-marks-a-new-low-for-labour)


Jews may get more than their fair share of abuse (fair share being none, clearly), but as a whole, in the UK, they earn significantly more, live longer, are better represented in politics (around 8 times higher than their percentage of population would predict), so you could hardly call the Jewish community "oppressed".


How on earth do you know the personal circumstances of every Jew in this country? You don't. Do you know the lived experience of every Jew - or even the majority of Jews- in this country? No, obviously not. Cluelessness upon cluelessness.

Nor, it seems, do you have the tiniest grasp of history.

Here's an example of something very concerning to many:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEB9PwKYmmA (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEB9PwKYmmA)

Can you see the problem? Or do these attitudes all seem quite normal and healthy to you?



edit: comment made less personal.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 14, 2019, 07:15:06 pm
Of course “the media” are “right wing”, if you’re a committed socialist.
 All media, unless party sponsored, is a capitalist enterprise, ergo, “right wing”.

Part of the current issue is this arbitrary line, in the political sand, between Left and right. One of the biggest problems is the divide in the progressive and liberal side of the debate.

 Right wing philosophy is essentially one of individual responsibility, at it’s most moderate, through to utter selfishness at it’s extreme. Oddly, this doesn’t seem to produce as much of the “herding cats” syndrome as we might think, it seems to allow better cooperation than the “you’re not red enough for my gang” crap that plagues the Left.
Essentially, I’m saying that the ridiculous number of Labour sponsored ads and leaflets appearing in my feeds and on my doormat, attacking the LD (Swinson in particular) because they sometimes supported Tory posed legislation; whilst giving absolutely no clue to Labour’s policies or even trying to attack the Tories, seems pretty pointless.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: spidermonkey09 on November 14, 2019, 09:59:09 pm
Some strong views here but maybe we could agree that the LP has not really handled recent antisemitism issues as well as it could have and that the right wing press have exploited this issue. Certainly more than the reporting on the torys islamaphobia issues

I don't see any reason why this shouldn't be the standard view. It's possible to think both these things at the same time and probably comes closest to my views on it.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Fultonius on November 14, 2019, 10:17:31 pm

3. What else can you call the forced occupation of the West Bank? Peaceful harmony? What do British Jews think of what's going on out there? Good times and parties?

You are coming out with some rather unsavoury posts Fultonius.

Not only are you insulting me with this comment (if you want to know what I think of events in the West Bank, search for my arguments on here with Sloper) - but much more importantly- using the racist's the age-old trick of trying to make an ethnic group somehow complicit in the actions of a foreign state.


You reminded me of Derek Hatton's  2012 tweet:
“Jewish people with any sense of humanity need to start speaking out publicly against the ruthless murdering being carried out by Israel!” (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/derek-hatton-suspended-from-labour-over-tweet)


The journalist Hannah Parkinson puts it well:
The intellectual vacuity of antisemites, unable to distinguish between Netanyahu’s government and past Israeli administrations and an entire group of historically oppressed people, or their right to a homeland, continues to take the breath away.  (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/19/the-return-of-king-rat-derek-hatton-marks-a-new-low-for-labour)


Jews may get more than their fair share of abuse (fair share being none, clearly), but as a whole, in the UK, they earn significantly more, live longer, are better represented in politics (around 8 times higher than their percentage of population would predict), so you could hardly call the Jewish community "oppressed".


How on earth do you know the personal circumstances of every Jew in this country? You don't. Do you know the lived experience of every Jew - or even the majority of Jews- in this country? No, obviously not. Cluelessness upon cluelessness.

Nor, it seems, do you have the tiniest grasp of history.

Here's an example of something very concerning to many:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEB9PwKYmmA (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEB9PwKYmmA)

Can you see the problem? Or do these attitudes all seem quite normal and healthy to you?



edit: comment made less personal.

I'm going to bow out of this for a while, do some more reading, consider it all. Apologies for any offence. I got pretty angry at Will misrepresenting what I said, and battered out a poorly thought through response.

I'm clearly in over my head. I'm just so angry that a government who are clearly and demonstrably killing it's own people https://www.gov.uk/government/news/public-health-england-publishes-air-pollution-evidence-review (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/public-health-england-publishes-air-pollution-evidence-review), and selling arms to other countries who kill vast amounts of other people, gets propped up by a willing press.


Before crawling away, I do want to explain a few of my comments. I wasn't intending to belittle anyone's fears, or denigrate their individual circumstances. I was merely pointing out that, on a number of useful metrics, health, wealth, opportunity, etc. Jewish people (on average, in studies etc.) do pretty well in the UK, and a lot better than the average. These are just facts. I do not believe, or infer, any ulterior motive in this, such as "Jewish Overloards" or any such nonsense. Of course, oppression comes in many forms, and I'm willing to admit that in focusing on these, I have perhaps missed other types. I'm now going to do what I can to read as many sources as I can on this.

As I said before, I have no direct contact with Jewish people, there aren't many in Scotland and I'm non-religious, so I just don't meet many (for all I know, perhaps I do and don't know it?). Either way, my knowledge and understanding of what living life in the UK as a Jew are next to non-existent. I realise now that I probably should have stayed well clear of this topic. But I am interested to learn and understand, I'm not entrenched, not unwilling to back down and realise my error in judgement.

With regards to the West bank thing, I was not trying to infer complicity. I was genuinely interested. I've re-read some old stuff and saw your posts now. I place no blame on anyone not able to vote him out.  As a point of note, I feel somewhat complicit in the murder of Yemen civilians by extension of the fact I'm not doing enough to stop it, but I do try to call out the UK's involvement whenever I can, and don't vote for anyone who supports this.

I just finished this, which has helped a bit I think:  https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/05/no-direction-home-tragedy-jewish-left
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on November 14, 2019, 10:33:36 pm
Good post Fultonius.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 14, 2019, 11:00:21 pm
Of course “the media” are “right wing”, if you’re a committed socialist.
 All media, unless party sponsored, is a capitalist enterprise, ergo, “right wing”.

Part of the current issue is this arbitrary line, in the political sand, between Left and right. One of the biggest problems is the divide in the progressive and liberal side of the debate.

 Right wing philosophy is essentially one of individual responsibility, at it’s most moderate, through to utter selfishness at it’s extreme. Oddly, this doesn’t seem to produce as much of the “herding cats” syndrome as we might think, it seems to allow better cooperation than the “you’re not red enough for my gang” crap that plagues the Left.
Essentially, I’m saying that the ridiculous number of Labour sponsored ads and leaflets appearing in my feeds and on my doormat, attacking the LD (Swinson in particular) because they sometimes supported Tory posed legislation; whilst giving absolutely no clue to Labour’s policies or even trying to attack the Tories, seems pretty pointless.

I think I agree Matt, in that one of the most depressing things about this election campaign is that there are very few positive voices with realistic clear policy proposals. It all seems to be bickering, and taunts of Tories/austerity or Labour/ Marxist spendthrifts or Lib Dems/ tuition fees. The only party I think I've actually heard present a positive vision without this is the Greens, but I'm rather uncertain, to put it mildly, that their policies are all realistic.

Just for the avoidance of doubt, I don't think that Johnson endlessly babbling infantile platitudes about his oven-ready microwave-boil-in-the-bag brexit represents a positive vision. Currently, Labour seems to have substituted having a manifesto for a huge sack of bribes. The Lib Dems on the other hand have bought some boxing gloves for Jo Swinson as it worked well for Farage didn't it. Boxing is clearly in fashion for parties doomed to obscurity.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 15, 2019, 07:47:52 am
What do you want though Toby?

Labour have come out with many plans - Latest free fibre to the door for everyone (which actually could be a big future thing - really it’s an infrastructure project for all). NHS spending, torys are also planning to increase spending on NHS, Police, immigration etc... 



But you say these are bribes.. that’s an issue of view or perception. So does that mean the electorate are equally (partially) to blame for the political malevolence as the politicians? Or something else that has poisoned things (more)?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 15, 2019, 10:32:36 am
In response to Brutus:
Why not so much criticism of the Conservatives? There's no doubt in my mind that the Conservative party is institutionally islamophobic and probably has broader issues with racism. They elected a leader who is given to using inflammatory and horribly insensitive language to describe people who are different to him. He's a cunt at the top of a towering heap of cunts. A heap of cunts who, in the past three years, have consistently put their own party before the national interest. There aren't many derogatives that don't apply to Johnson, and he's about to stack his benches with even more loons who will gladly follow him over whatever cliff he leads them to.

However, I have never voted Conservative and would certainly not vote for them at this election.


I would categorise my political views as centre-left (hint: you don't get to call anybody who isn't as far left as you a right-winger. That would make Corbyn a right-winger in the eyes of a communist - is that true? No.) In the face of such an extreme Conservative government who are trying to enact Brexit, which I think will be incredibly destructive, it should be the easiest thing in the world for me to vote for an opposition party, but Labour make it really hard.

On the issue of antisemitism. Taking the absolute numbers of antisemites in the party and presenting them as a portion of a much bigger membership is to belie their impact. It doesn't take a large number of people to affect change if they are persistent and vocal about it. It's only taken that small number of people to group together and attend all the meetings and vocally hound people out of their seats with hate speech. Even people as close to JC as John McDonnell admit that there is a problem in the party. We have to expect this - if the party is reflective of society then there will be bad apples, but if you watch the Panorama documentary you will see that the party under Corbyn's leadership failed to do anything about it (just as the Conservatives fail to deal with Islamophobia - as pointed out on the BBC by Baroness Warsi) - this is the bit I have a problem with.

It is an unfortunate truth that most of England is centre-right or further-right-than-that. Corbyn is toxic to these people - even if not for his policies then for his appearance or lack of charisma (notice how those crowds of enthusiastic students that we saw in 2015 have fallen away? Corbyn has lost his campaigning vim). While the SNP hold sway in Scotland, he can't win by taking the party to the left. Given how much I'd like to get the Conservatives out, it pains me that his continued leadership is probably going to give us a Conservative majority and a horrible Brexit which I'd hoped we might somehow avoid. Were the party in the hands of Owen Smith or similar, who knows where we'd be now? The best we can hope for is a minority labour government propped up by the lib dems, but the odds are stacked against it.

The article that somebody's fool linked to seemed to proclaim 2017 as a great Labour victory. It was not. It was a smaller defeat than their last defeat, but it was a defeat nevertheless.

On Corbyn's policies. I very much like the idea of increased public spending and trying to repair the rot that has set in over the last decade of Tory rule. Some of his policies are unaffordable and, when it comes to nationalisation, we need to see a clear case as to how the public will benefit and set this against the enormous amounts of compensation that will need to be paid out. However, a GE manifesto doesn't necessarily have to be a list of things that you definitely can deliver (if it were it would be to give a hostage to fortune), so I can look past that. My main concern is that a Corbyn-led government will be woefully inadequate at dealing with whatever challenges lie ahead. They can barely cope with being in opposition.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 15, 2019, 01:40:01 pm
What do you want though Toby?
Labour have come out with many plans ...So does that mean the electorate are equally (partially) to blame for the political malevolence as the politicians? Or something else that has poisoned things (more)?

I wasn't saying that labour were any worse than anyone else in this regard, I think all parties are guilty at election time of promising the moon on a stick and being very coy about how moons on sticks are going to be funded. I think this isn't just their fault, the British people are notorious for saying in polls that they'd pay more for the health services, infrastructure etc but then getting really stroppy about it when taxes go up.
Free fibre broadband and nationalisation is certainly an interesting idea, though there seems to be some debate that they may have radically underestimated the cost of this.
I heard some of Johnson's Q&A earlier on the radio. I used to find him at least a bit funny, but he was utterly unbearable, all 'i love fish and chips',  'get brexit done', and spouting the usual either poorly informed or blatantly lying rubbish about how leaving will be all sweetness light and riches for everyone.

I'd like somebody to be standing up and saying what sort of country they want the UK to be, how they'll achieve it, and in what ways they want to try to achieve it. Rather than saying they'll shake the magic money tree til it dies.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 15, 2019, 02:20:08 pm
So, just a quick dodge back to the BBC thing...

They referred  to the universal broadband thing as “Communism”, or at least, pointedly asked if was.

To me, that’s equivalent to asking a Tory, during an interview, if certain policies on (say) immigration, or more to the point Patel’s proposal to essentially end the Roma way of life, amounted to Fascism.
Yet, they haven’t even really mentioned any of those things.
The Roma issue revolves around the proposal to make Trespass a criminal offence (rather than civil, as it is now) and to allow seizure of goods and equipment used in unlawful residence. Or, to put it another way, take their caravans and render them homeless.

You might not like Gypsies much, they get a bad rap and many are pretty bloody awful, but I’d argue it’s a bit of a two way “they hate us and don’t respect us, so fuck’em” thing from normals and Roma alike and who started it is lost in the mists of time.
But, hey, I’m a Didicoy, so eternally stuck in the middle.
(Paternal Great Grandmother married a house dweller. Still meet up with cousins occasionally, though they’re usually somewhere in Europe. I have no clue what brexit will mean for them).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on November 15, 2019, 03:04:27 pm
Travellers generally act like a bunch of cunts best avoided and left well-alone. But I've admiration for their independence and self-reliance; and to be fair they're living in a time when a lot of people act like cunts best avoided and left well-alone.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 15, 2019, 03:26:59 pm
Travellers generally act like a bunch of cunts best avoided and left well-alone. But I've admiration for their independence and self-reliance; and to be fair they're living in a time when a lot of people act like cunts best avoided and left well-alone.

‘Tis true, unfortunately. But I’d ask you to remember there are many different “tribes” and some are nicer than others.
Most Cyganie suck, for instance. They seem to gravitate to picking pockets and mugging. Usually referred to as Romanians in press, which pisses off actual Romanians to no end. The Cyganie were simply trapped in Eastern Europe when the Iron Curtain dropped in 45.

Thing is, you won’t have noticed the “good” Romani, they just wander through your life with barely a ripple. They were probably running a fairground ride or a food stall and there for few days, then gone. Nothing stolen, no pile of shit or dumped caravans.

They’re no more fond of “the others” than you are.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on November 15, 2019, 03:44:45 pm
Oh I totally accept there are good and bad. I actually quite respect even the ‘best-avoided’ one’s attitude of ‘fuck everyone’. They’re life’s survivors, if civilisation ever fell they’d probably be fine while many of us wouldn’t be.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Somebody's Fool on November 15, 2019, 10:35:18 pm
Some more marxist diatribe. From an economics professor at Oxford.

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2019/11/corbyn-and-antisemitism.html (https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2019/11/corbyn-and-antisemitism.html)

PS I'm not posting these articles to annoy - just trying to offer a different viewpoint to whatever you lot are reading on the Guardian. So if replies could avoid rage, rudeness or dismissiveness that would be much appreciated!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 15, 2019, 11:25:26 pm
Essentially, however this excessively long blog boils down to saying that Corbyns not so bad, he's not anti-Semitic, he's just careless about who he hangs out with. All of which may or may not be true, but I refer you to Will's comment that his main fear about him being in government is that he can barely handle being in opposition against a terrible government.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 16, 2019, 10:47:42 pm
Well...
This seems to sum up political debate in 2019:

 https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/perspective (https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/perspective)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 17, 2019, 09:06:41 am
Why will Labour lose this election?

Because of a slight majority of Brits, a group not defined by class or affluence.

Because, despite their anti-semitic credentials, they are not sufficiently anti-foreigner.

Ultimately, a majority of Brits are racist and nationalistic (as opposed to patriotic) and the party/ies who acknowledge that, will reap the votes, regardless of any other issue or economic benifit/loss to the voter’s own social group.

As long as the brown people are kept out.

 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/buoyant-boris-johnson-plays-migrant-card-8v2dk062d?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1573978595 (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/buoyant-boris-johnson-plays-migrant-card-8v2dk062d?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1573978595)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 17, 2019, 10:11:24 am
From Nick Cohen's article in the Observer today:
But what do you expect when a formerly great country finds that out of all its 66 million citizens it must choose a prime minister from a shortlist of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn? Good government? Adequate government? Any kind of government worthy of the name?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/16/only-those-who-worship-at-the-feet-of-the-party-leader-are-fit-to-stand-labour-tories?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nigel on November 17, 2019, 11:19:42 am
From Nick Cohen's article in the Observer today:

Slightly more balanced than his usual nonsense to be fair, in one sense. He usually makes a generalised rip of both major parties, but includes a very obvious comparison of Corbyn to Trump / Stalin / Hitler. Seems to have missed that / had it edited out this week. Perhaps he'll include it in his blogs for the Spectator. Not checked news yet today, is there not an Andrew Rawnsley weekly identikit article you can link us to as well?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nigel on November 17, 2019, 11:28:00 am
On Corbyn's policies. I very much like the idea of increased public spending and trying to repair the rot that has set in over the last decade of Tory rule. Some of his policies are unaffordable and, when it comes to nationalisation, we need to see a clear case as to how the public will benefit and set this against the enormous amounts of compensation that will need to be paid out.

Citation needed. Very easy to chuck the "unaffordable" line around, as for some reason the past few governments have conned us into thinking we can't afford anything, despite being the 6th largest economy in the world with a relatively small population.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on November 17, 2019, 11:49:12 am
Another day another Guardian article link by Toby, Offwidth or OMM on a UKB politics thread.
Out of curiosity I counted how many in this thread:

Guardian links: 19
New Statesman: 3
Times: 2
Independent: 1
FT: 1
NY Times: 1

ECHO!
 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on November 17, 2019, 01:03:18 pm

ECHO!

Since you requested it:
https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/liverpool-tranfer-news-injuries-live-17269463 (https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/liverpool-tranfer-news-injuries-live-17269463)

Not sure if it’s quite the right thread tho
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 17, 2019, 01:08:27 pm
It’s a fair point at first glance Pete - but the thread and forum is overwhelmingly remain (90%+ on the poll?) so maybe not entirely unexpected?

Reflecting on it a little (as you are with those figures Pete) it’s interesting how little positivity for ANY candidate or party is coming out - from what I can see. It’s a who’s the least worst option type of discussion. I was hoping there would be a bit more groundswell for Swinton - as she’s new - quite clear with her message - and not an old grey/blonde man....

Also noticed there’s very little election paraphernalia stuck up at the moment. Not seen any posters on houses/gardens or (😃) Tory billboards along field edges etc... guess it’s early in the campaign but struck by their abscence.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on November 17, 2019, 01:34:36 pm
Not unexpected at all TT. But it is very dull, very predictable and very narrowly focused. UKB is 95% remain and I'd estimate 85% centre or left. This is mostly a thread for Guardian readers to discuss Guardian opinion-pieces.

Have also noticed the lack of energy and interest in the election. Can't say I'm surprised - I think more than usually people have made their minds up already.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 17, 2019, 02:07:50 pm
Wrong Pete.

I was reading the Times today, not got to the Groaner yet.

So, actually, that’s your bias showing, not ours.
You often seem unaware of your own cant.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: IanP on November 17, 2019, 03:43:36 pm
Another day another Guardian article link by Toby, Offwidth or OMM on a UKB politics thread.
Out of curiosity I counted how many in this thread:

Guardian links: 19
New Statesman: 3
Times: 2
Independent: 1
FT: 1
NY Times: 1

ECHO!

Possibly to some extent but given the Times, FT and Telegraph are fully or mainly pay-walled and the Independent is a shadow of its former self in paper and online the Guardian is an obvious choice not just because of its middle class, left leaning bias.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: IanP on November 17, 2019, 03:55:22 pm
Not unexpected at all TT. But it is very dull, very predictable and very narrowly focused. UKB is 95% remain and I'd estimate 85% centre or left. This is mostly a thread for Guardian readers to discuss Guardian opinion-pieces.

Have also noticed the lack of energy and interest in the election. Can't say I'm surprised - I think more than usually people have made their minds up already.

My lack of energy (but not interest) is more due to that fact that I feel I have the worst main parties and in particular the worst party leaders since I was too young to remember.  If you'd told me a few years ago that we'd have a worst choice for prime minister than Thatcher and Foot in the early 80s I wouldn't have believed you but here we are!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 17, 2019, 04:51:02 pm
Yup. I’d agree with that.

Media seem to be now waiting around for something to ‘ignite’ the campaign...

Maybe time to give milkshakes to TV audiences during debates. 👍
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on November 17, 2019, 05:03:36 pm
I think more than usually people have made their minds up already.

 I guess this time a lot of people who might have swayed between ‘New’ Labour LD and Green will be voting for whoever has the best chance against the Con in their area.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 17, 2019, 05:53:38 pm
Meanwhile - the BP’s tynemouth candidate lives in Freemantle Australia 😂

Sounds like he’s had quite a life though...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-party-election-tynemouth-australia-diver-ed-punchard-a9205191.html
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: i.munro on November 17, 2019, 05:58:08 pm
UKB is 95% remain and I'd estimate 85% centre or left.

Has anyone wondered why this is the case? There is nothing here selecting for income group or education.
An interest is bouldering and access to a computer seem to be all that's required - is it age-related or to do with the lack of bouldering in the SE?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 17, 2019, 06:48:24 pm
I think more than usually people have made their minds up already.

 I guess this time a lot of people who might have swayed between ‘New’ Labour LD and Green will be voting for whoever has the best chance against the Con in their area.

Yep.
Best least worst, is the lesser evil; so we must away with Occam’s cutty thing and swallow pride.
Let us all lament the passing of hope.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on November 17, 2019, 07:02:15 pm
Meanwhile - the BP’s tynemouth candidate lives in Freemantle Australia 😂

Sounds like he’s had quite a life though...

Ed Punchard is a fucking cracking name, I’d find that hard to pass up on the ballot!

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 17, 2019, 07:31:14 pm
Meanwhile - the BP’s tynemouth candidat e lives in Freemantle Australia 😂

Sounds like he’s had quite a life though...

Ed Punchard is a fucking cracking name, I’d find that hard to pass up on the ballot!

Former N Sea diver and Piper Alpha survivor too...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on November 17, 2019, 08:30:45 pm
Mat I knew before I even pressed 'post' that you'd reply like that. While you may be reading the Times/FT/etc., you've mostly linked to the Guardian. Same for Toby and Offwidth. It's a boring echo chamber.

I'd much rather read someone post about reading something they instinctively disagreed with and that challenged their belief; than yet another post about a link to a Guardian opinion piece that aligns with the poster's view. Try the torygraph for a week or two!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 17, 2019, 08:53:00 pm
Mat I knew before I even pressed 'post' that you'd reply like that. While you may be reading the Times/FT/etc., you've mostly linked to the Guardian. Same for Toby and Offwidth. It's a boring echo chamber.

I'd much rather read someone post about reading something they instinctively disagreed with and that challenged their belief; than yet another post about a link to a Guardian opinion piece that aligns with the poster's view. Try the torygraph for a week or two!

It might also be because the Guardian is the only one of all those you’ve mentioned that isn’t paywalled....
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on November 17, 2019, 09:19:12 pm

I'd much rather read someone post about reading something they instinctively disagreed with and that challenged their belief; than yet another post about a link to a Guardian opinion piece that aligns with the poster's view. Try the torygraph for a week or two!

Which writers fulfil this for you at the telegraph? Any examples that aren’t paywalled? Or is the Tele more in line with your particular chamber of echoes and it’s the constant Graun articles that you instinctively disagree with?

I note the tele do a free trial but i am slightly concerned about forgetting and accidentally giving them some money. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 17, 2019, 09:54:41 pm
As mentioned above.
It’s a paywall thing. I have the subscriptions or have wangled such, nefariously by pinching other people’s passwords.
I mentioned elsewhere that my routine is Beeb, Sky, G&T&T (with a dash of FT when possible). I usually read several versions of a story and if I want to share it, pick a free version. So, Guardian is likely.
 
I know it must be hard on you Pete, but you don’t need to feel lonely, there are plenty of people on your side of the left right divide (not that any such thing really exists, just a muddy, murky, orangish, mush that seeps into pink one way and a sort of greenish turquoise the other, long before achieving any real primary hue).
Frankly, my echo chamber is fucking near Navy sodding blue, amongst one group of friends and downright crimson amongst another. Makes for some interesting Facebook discussions. We all still get along and still get together every year (usually to get absolutely bladdered in somewhere like the Frog and Frigate) and still haven’t come to blows over it.
Anyway, as I said, I think it’s more a bias against the Guardian on your part than anything else.
I can read the same story in the Telegraph and then it’s Guardian counterpart and infer the actuality much better than if I only read one.

I still consistently find myself well to the left of one and right of the other.
I think that’s because I actually think about it (what ever it may be).


Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 17, 2019, 10:39:56 pm
As mentioned above.
It’s a paywall thing...
I still consistently find myself well to the left of one and right of the other.
I think that’s because I actually think about it (what ever it may be).

That's pretty much what I was going to say in reply as well Pete, I read the times more than anything else, to be honest though it's quite hard to find people presenting a coherent realistic argument for this Conservative government's vision for the future of the UK outside the EU, rather than just that Johnson is the best person to get brexit done really quickly.
Cohen's point is that both main parties have installed a front bench of loyal second rate no hopers. I'd be less bothered about leaving if I thought the people in charge were competent
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 18, 2019, 07:05:29 am
Actually, I think I need o challenge Pete’s perception further, because I think it sums up the problems with this sot of debate.

He’s not actually listening or reading. He has prejudged the cant of the poster and coloured in their offerings in his choice of pallet.

Let me explain.

(It was 5am when the pain woke me, so I’m in a silent house, unable to rest until the drugs kick in).

I reviewed my posts on this thread. I wondered, quite seriously, about the idea that I was some sort of Groaner regurgitator.

I made 33 posts.

I linked to 6 external articles or images:


The Independent x 1

The National Interst x 1

UK Defence Journal x 1

A Photo (copied from a local FB post) x 1

SMBC comics x 1

The Times x 1

Guardian x 1

(So, yes, I linked to a Gary Young piece. I linked without comment or endorsement or criticism).

I knew I was reading a broad spectrum of both reporting and opinion. I knew I generally didn’t feel any need to share much from the more rightwing media. That’s because I could see it was misleading or (often) false.
The key point, though, is that I felt the same about the Leftwing media too.

The idea that others are “indoctrinated” and just “regurgitating printed opinion” is simply a comfort blanket, for those with more extreme views on either wing.

 I seems obvious to me that the political views expressed in a forum such as this, are going to be fairy middle of the road; since the bell curve of political  opinion is quite high in the center.

I think those with a defined cant, will always see the centrist as “central to leaning the other way”.

So, Pete sees us as “centrist to left leaning” in the majority, whereas (I’m sure) Brutus sees us as “centrist to right leaning”. The centrist is always Schrodinger’s voter. The further an individual slips into a hue, the more their perception of the dividing lines between the hues, shifts with them.
And the sharper the line appears, too.

I reckon there’s some sort of correlation between degree of political leaning and ability to relate, at all, to another individual, akin to that hypothesis about romantic relationships only being possible between people with a relatively small IQ/Intellect divergence...

It goes back to my “you’re not Red/Blue enough to be in my gang” comment.
That’s what’s actually causing the problems, not the Guardian.

For what it’s worth, I find the Guardian, way more balanced and objective than the Telegraph. Not neutral, just less obviously a rabid political rag.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 18, 2019, 08:03:47 am
A couple of media points...

The Guardian is the only broadsheet owned by a trust rather than an oligarch or the Barclay brothers (I think)....

Whilst the newspapers all exist on a burning platform and we slag them off - they are still written by trained and talented journalists. Who’s craft is about having balance and factuality. Obvs we usually hear about the 1% of articles where that doesn’t happen - but otherwise we’d just have a Facebook feed of tripe.

Finally out TV news can press some bias buttons - but it’s not Fox News (which could not exist in the UK) which is simply propaganda.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 18, 2019, 08:07:33 am
Actually, I think I need o challenge Pete’s perception further, because I think it sums up the problems with this sot of debate.
...
For what it’s worth, I find the Guardian, way more balanced and objective than the Telegraph. Not neutral, just less obviously a rabid political rag.

Good points, I seem to have  been criticised on this thread for being too lefty and too critical of Corbyn, sometimes for the same post.
One thing however,  I haven't read the telegraph much recently,  but I find the guardian often unreadably partial. Owen Jones for example...
Anyway,  all of this matters little,  since I think that barring any major screw ups by Johnson,  he'll win a small majority and manage to ram his deal through
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 18, 2019, 09:23:35 am
Another day another Guardian article link by Toby, Offwidth or OMM on a UKB politics thread.
Out of curiosity I counted how many in this thread:

Guardian links: 19
New Statesman: 3
Times: 2
Independent: 1
FT: 1
NY Times: 1

ECHO!

One of my reasons is payalls. I'd be linking the FT and Times (esp Mathew Parris) loads more if not. The Telegraph has lost its mind (and is frothing at the nouth) over brexit and the two main party leaders. The Independent has pre senile dementia.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on November 18, 2019, 12:08:41 pm

I'd much rather read someone post about reading something they instinctively disagreed with and that challenged their belief; than yet another post about a link to a Guardian opinion piece that aligns with the poster's view. Try the torygraph for a week or two!

Which writers fulfil this for you at the telegraph? Any examples that aren’t paywalled? Or is the Tele more in line with your particular chamber of echoes and it’s the constant Graun articles that you instinctively disagree with?

I note the tele do a free trial but i am slightly concerned about forgetting and accidentally giving them some money.

? Making the point that this place is a Guardian echo chamber does not mean I'm not a Guardian reader. I'm a Guardian reader mostly. Despite disagreeing with the majority of the political opinion pieces.

I read the torygraph and independent for a bit of a different opinion but certainly wouldn't consider myself a natural torygraph target reader either, unless it's for investment advice  ;D

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on November 18, 2019, 12:15:28 pm
? Making the point that this place is a Guardian echo chamber does not mean I'm not a Guardian reader. I'm a Guardian reader mostly. Despite disagreeing with the majority of the political opinion pieces.


Ah cool, so you’re asking for other people to post articles that have challenged them without doing so yourself?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 18, 2019, 12:24:13 pm

I'd much rather read someone post about reading something they instinctively disagreed with and that challenged their belief; than yet another post about a link to a Guardian opinion piece that aligns with the poster's view. Try the torygraph for a week or two!

Which writers fulfil this for you at the telegraph? Any examples that aren’t paywalled? Or is the Tele more in line with your particular chamber of echoes and it’s the constant Graun articles that you instinctively disagree with?

I note the tele do a free trial but i am slightly concerned about forgetting and accidentally giving them some money.

? Making the point that this place is a Guardian echo chamber does not mean I'm not a Guardian reader. I'm a Guardian reader mostly. Despite disagreeing with the majority of the political opinion pieces.

I read the torygraph and independent for a bit of a different opinion but certainly wouldn't consider myself a natural torygraph target reader either, unless it's for investment advice  ;D

Mmm.  Having a general cynicism and thinking leaving the EU is okay really doesn't really radically set you aside from the ukb echo chamber does it?
I'd actually say that for example, guardian is pro far left labour, and ukb holds a spectrum of broadly centrist opinion, which I'd place closer to the general outlook of The Times, although that's slightly further right, though I'd say not that much.

Perhaps climbers don't tend to be anti vaxxers or rabid brexit party anti immigration proponents because if one climbed and were that stupid, you wouldn't last very long...  ;)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 18, 2019, 12:39:39 pm
I’m glad you made the intellect point Toby.

I was trying to sit on it, an Elephant in the room thing.

I’ve not come across any poster that struck me as lacking in the intellect department here, regardless of political leanings.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on November 18, 2019, 03:01:04 pm
? Making the point that this place is a Guardian echo chamber does not mean I'm not a Guardian reader. I'm a Guardian reader mostly. Despite disagreeing with the majority of the political opinion pieces.


Ah cool, so you’re asking for other people to post articles that have challenged them without doing so yourself?

Yes, exactly that. I haven’t been contributing to this thread and don’t intend to any further than to point out how dull it is to read endless link of Guardian articles.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on November 18, 2019, 10:49:31 pm
I find the guardian often unreadably partial. Owen Jones for example

One solution is to simply not read the ones that are heavily skewed. There are plenty of journalists I don’t consider ‘serious’- I don’t read them.

(And I don’t mean heavy or pompous, just attempting not to elide fact and opinion. Marina Hyde, John Crace - serious in one way, not at all in another).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on November 18, 2019, 11:08:30 pm
Just confound expectations - breaking news that EU has said that UK will get a very basic trade deal (or no trade deal) if Bojo wants to stick to his 31st December 2020 negotiating timeline.


Read it in...(get ready Pete)...The Sun:


https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/10372646/eu-trade-boss-bare-bones-brexit/ (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/10372646/eu-trade-boss-bare-bones-brexit/)


Phwoooarrr etc.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: reeve on November 19, 2019, 01:27:53 pm
UKB is 95% remain and I'd estimate 85% centre or left.


Has anyone wondered why this is the case? There is nothing here selecting for income group or education.
An interest is bouldering and access to a computer seem to be all that's required - is it age-related or to do with the lack of bouldering in the SE?

I think this is a really good question to ponder, especially T because doing so helps understand why other segments of society have a tendency to vote differently. I watched this TED talk a few weeks ago which I thought was brilliant. The main point being that those who are socially liberal terms to score higher on the personality trait of 'openness to experience'. I'd guess that most climbers would do so as well, and as such this site is populated by more socially liberal folk who see a greater benefit in the ease of travel and closer integration with Europe (not necessarily with the EU, there's probably a different question)

Link: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.ted.com/talks/jonathan_haidt_on_the_moral_mind%3Flanguage%3Den&ved=2ahUKEwj60oa4sPblAhUUEcAKHXxNCBUQwqsBMAB6BAgGEAU&usg=AOvVaw1JGFU2GtiQa_z1jRm1iDEt
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 19, 2019, 01:39:26 pm
I find the guardian often unreadably partial. Owen Jones for example

One solution is to simply not read the ones that are heavily skewed. There are plenty of journalists I don’t consider ‘serious’- I don’t read them.

(And I don’t mean heavy or pompous, just attempting not to elide fact and opinion. Marina Hyde, John Crace - serious in one way, not at all in another).

Yes I agree, but I like to try to challenge / irritate myself by reading them as I do with say Dominic Lawson in the Sunday Times.

Just confound expectations - breaking news that EU has said that UK will get a very basic trade deal (or no trade deal) if Bojo wants to stick to his 31st December 2020 negotiating timeline.
Read it in...(get ready Pete)...The Sun:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/10372646/eu-trade-boss-bare-bones-brexit/ (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/10372646/eu-trade-boss-bare-bones-brexit/)

Okay, but what agreements on quotas and regulatory alignment will Johnson be able to sell to enough of his party to get even a basic deal through? My guess is if a basic deal was offered the EU would request something that the frothing eurosceptic contingent will reject and we'll end up with no deal anyway. However, Johnson does seem to appeal to people in person and maybe, just maybe he could pull something out of the bag.

If as expected he gets his majority, it's pretty depressing that the PM for the next 5 years will be widely acknowledged as a serial liar who treats women like shit, and appears to have no idealological or moral compass. Still, if he can manage to leave in a way that doesn't ruin the country, is he realistically the best option?

Or is 'best option' moving to New Zealand at this point?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 19, 2019, 01:49:55 pm
By then NZ will have probably turned on its head - following one of the most progressive seeming PM's in years some trump style loon will be in charge... :D
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 19, 2019, 03:42:04 pm
Another Guardian link, but Oborne is a lifelong tory supporter and ex columnist in right wing broadsheets. I agree with him entirely, including his serious concerns with the press failing to hold Boris to account for his increasingly blatant lies.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/18/boris-johnson-lying-media

When facing a compulsive liar and opportunistic snake oil salesman, who will sell the country out for his own power, Corbyn is a saint in comparison (and he will likely be leading a minority government at best, so will be neutered) . Unless climbers want the country to be stuffed they need to be encouraging voter registration and local campaigns based on the best chances for 'anything but Boris'. any other option is doing the bidding of this most dishonest ever tory campaign
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 19, 2019, 10:24:09 pm
I don't disagree with you offwidth, I just think it's unlikely to happen, Corbyn is just too unpopular and divisive as a leader to form the necessary alliances and attract enough voters, I fear.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 20, 2019, 08:38:05 am
So through fear you won't fight for what's best? All that is needed is to elect the best anti Boris MP in our marginals.

These are the latest CCHQ dirty tricks:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/19/tories-tweet-anti-labour-posts-under-factcheckuk-brand

The tories want a unicorn brexit deal but Europe will only give them a softist brexit (with gordian knots) through the backdoor of Boris' s deal almost forcing no deal by next year. When the proposed tory spending spree in the NHS etc hits that economic reality, the UK is fucked. Getting the deal through Parliament isn't getting brexit done, its the start of complex negotiations where reality will bite hard.  In the new reality the most reactionary Tory government we ever had, that got elected on a pack of lies, will do what exactly? Certainly nothing good... doffed cap to the US seems most likely to me and even a possible begging of the end to the welfare state... that tory libertarian right wet dream.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 20, 2019, 08:50:39 am
So I watched last nights TV disussion. Its clear to me that:

(a) Boris spouts like a malfunctioning sphincter. He has no concept of time or listening to anyone else - repeatedely speaking over people and dragging the message back to his brexit deal. If you were to insert 'strong and stable' every time he said my brexit deal - it would have been the Maybot in a foppish wig and a comedy belly.

(b) Corbyn should have gone to the specsavers Boris helped mop out. Wonky specs and squinting delivery throughout. Sure I'm focusing on the trivia but it did make him look as shifty as a 15 year old in front of the head master for smoking next to school. How he missed the open goal - the sitter of all sitters - when talking about personal accountability, of not raising Johnsons habitual lying, mysogony, racism etc.. etc.. Perhaps Labour and Tory HQ had a secret pact "we won't say marxist if you dont mention that Jennifer woman"...

The audience laughed (as in - are you taking the piss knobhead? - rather than you're funny) several times at both of them.

What a shower of shit.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 20, 2019, 09:03:36 am
As a reminder, this is the resaon I have plenty of hope. The election maths isn't simply determined by polling numbers, due to so many local complexities. These are the marginals:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50349111

To get a working majority the tories need to win nearly all their own rebel seats, plus some to replace the DUP working arrangement, plus a safety margin. They will almost certainly lose around 10 seats in Scotland. They will almost certainly lose ten or more to the Lib Dems in the South and SW. Given oddities (Labour are strong favorites in Broxtowe, as Anna Soubry was not far ahead of Labour last time and is standing against the tories, and there is no Lib Dem due to their pact), they need to take 40 odd Labour held marginals where Brexit are standing in all but a few. To do that they need a 10% plus swing in those seats against Labour, with many popular moderate local Labour MPs, often standing against some unattractive tory right wing fresh faces. Labour still have the biggest party machine on the ground. Labour are outspending the tories on social media (with few plain lies to come back and bite them). In the vast majority of the key marginals it's a pretty uncomplicated 2 way fight: Labour-tory in the marginal Labour seats and Lib Dem- tory in the S and SW seats. If progressives want to 'win' this election,  to stop the Boris brexit madness, and with a minority Labour government as a result, the path is crystal clear.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 20, 2019, 09:19:22 am


What a shower of shit.

Solution to a shower of shit.. work hard to elect those moderate Lib Dems in the S and SW and those moderate Labour MPs in the midlands, Wales and north marginals who will kick out the Boris brexit and neuter the Corbyn wing of Labour.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on November 20, 2019, 09:31:12 am

(b) Corbyn should have gone to the specsavers Boris helped mop out. Wonky specs and squinting delivery throughout. Sure I'm focusing on the trivia but it did make him look as shifty as a 15 year old in front of the head master for smoking next to school. How he missed the open goal - the sitter of all sitters - when talking about personal accountability, of not raising Johnsons habitual lying, mysogony, racism etc.. etc.. Perhaps Labour and Tory HQ had a secret pact "we won't say marxist if you dont mention that Jennifer woman"...

The audience laughed (as in - are you taking the piss knobhead? - rather than you're funny) several times at both of them.

What a shower of shit.

I've a mate who's a Labour activist who I was talking to over the weekend - I was saying more or less this, i.e. why isn't Magic Grandpa going for the jugular on Acuri, concealing the Russia stuff, Boris' x kids, an unspecified number of whom are being brought up as their own by his colleagues (yes you read that right)...

His view was that this shouldn't be necessary as politics is about ideas and vision. This attitude is what is going to cost Labour any progress and consign us to 5 (and the rest) years of Tory rule.





Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 20, 2019, 09:44:05 am
So through fear you won't fight for what's best? All that is needed is to elect the best anti Boris MP in our marginals.

I couldn't argue with the integrity of many Labour MPs,  or indeed many Conservative MPs.  The issue for me is that both parties have done their best to excise, or marginalise their members who don't precisely accord with their leader's thinking, and I'm not sure I really like either leader's thinking. It matters little what I do personally,  as the Labour incumbent in my constituency has a majority of about 30000, which I can't see being overturned.
I'd like to see the Liberal Democrats do really well in the south west and oust unpleasant characters like Anne Marie Morris, but I think that the uncompromising revoke line which is all most people will know about them will put off too many people down there. For some reason lots of people still seem to think that the EU is an awful thing for agriculture and fishing, conveniently ignoring that it's a) Not b) What about tourism, I wonder how much tourism revenue the South West would (will?) lose if (when?) we actually leave.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 20, 2019, 09:48:46 am

I've a mate who's a Labour activist who I was talking to over the weekend - I was saying more or less this, i.e. why isn't Magic Grandpa going for the jugular on Acuri, concealing the Russia stuff, Boris' x kids, an unspecified number of whom are being brought up as their own by his colleagues (yes you read that right)...

His view was that this shouldn't be necessary as politics is about ideas and vision. This attitude is what is going to cost Labour any progress and consign us to 5 (and the rest) years of Tory rule.

Yup. They really,  really  can't afford to play nice. 98% of people just won't listen to nice, see Johnson as assertive not dithering and welcome to a worse, more expensive health service,  worse working conditions and much more expensive food and holidays.  O, and Priti Patel locking up anyone who they think might haul in a few more votes
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 20, 2019, 10:21:05 am
So through fear you won't fight for what's best? All that is needed is to elect the best anti Boris MP in our marginals.

I couldn't argue with the integrity of many Labour MPs,  or indeed many Conservative MPs.  The issue for me is that both parties have done their best to excise, or marginalise their members who don't precisely accord with their leader's thinking, and I'm not sure I really like either leader's thinking. It matters little what I do personally,  as the Labour incumbent in my constituency has a majority of about 30000, which I can't see being overturned.
I'd like to see the Liberal Democrats do really well in the south west and oust unpleasant characters like Anne Marie Morris, but I think that the uncompromising revoke line which is all most people will know about them will put off too many people down there. For some reason lots of people still seem to think that the EU is an awful thing for agriculture and fishing, conveniently ignoring that it's a) Not b) What about tourism, I wonder how much tourism revenue the South West would (will?) lose if (when?) we actually leave.

Ha!

That would be Schrodingers Emet/Grockle, simultaneously the backbone of the local economy and the greatest enemy of a certain type of local.

As a kid, I sat with my father, listening to a certain gentleman, who made his living with a beach equipment shop, a large carpark and a caravan site; bitching to my dad (a local copper) about the fucking emets clogging up the roads and making it impossible for him to park (his Jag) outside his own shop.

After driving away, my dad had to stop the car, while he burst out in hysterical laughter and then explained to me, in quite crude terms for a conversation with a 13 year old, what a hypocritical twat the fella was since every penny the twunt had ever made came from a tourist.
But, that’s Cornwall all over.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 20, 2019, 01:43:07 pm
So through fear you won't fight for what's best? All that is needed is to elect the best anti Boris MP in our marginals.

I couldn't argue with the integrity of many Labour MPs,  or indeed many Conservative MPs.  The issue for me is that both parties have done their best to excise, or marginalise their members who don't precisely accord with their leader's thinking, and I'm not sure I really like either leader's thinking. It matters little what I do personally,  as the Labour incumbent in my constituency has a majority of about 30000, which I can't see being overturned.
I'd like to see the Liberal Democrats do really well in the south west and oust unpleasant characters like Anne Marie Morris, but I think that the uncompromising revoke line which is all most people will know about them will put off too many people down there. For some reason lots of people still seem to think that the EU is an awful thing for agriculture and fishing, conveniently ignoring that it's a) Not b) What about tourism, I wonder how much tourism revenue the South West would (will?) lose if (when?) we actually leave.

Ha!

That would be Schrodingers Emet/Grockle, simultaneously the backbone of the local economy and the greatest enemy of a certain type of local.

As a kid, I sat with my father, listening to a certain gentleman, who made his living with a beach equipment shop, a large carpark and a caravan site; bitching to my dad (a local copper) about the fucking emets clogging up the roads and making it impossible for him to park (his Jag) outside his own shop.

After driving away, my dad had to stop the car, while he burst out in hysterical laughter and then explained to me, in quite crude terms for a conversation with a 13 year old, what a hypocritical twat the fella was since every penny the twunt had ever made came from a tourist.
But, that’s Cornwall all over.

Yup, that's the lovely spirit I recognize. People who want to tear it all down and keep their place nice and quiet for them.

Only, perhaps, to discover when they've torn it down, that their place now stinks, because EU environmental regulations had ensured clean beaches, and everyone of working age has left because all the jobs have gone. O and decently qualified European NHS staff have been replaced by staff from parts of the world that they discover they like even less, with lower standards of medical training. Hooray for motherfucking sovereignty. 

Sorry, I'm feeling slightly bleak today.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 20, 2019, 02:14:18 pm
I see you watched the debate, then, Toby.

I avoided it, on mental health grounds.

That coupled with the Pregabalin they have me on currently means I’m always (effectively) a little drunk and (me being me) that means too jolly and constantly cracking shit jokes of the “dad” variety, whilst talking too much.
I had enough misery pre-Pregabalin, to subject myself to listen to that twat Johnson waffle on.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 20, 2019, 11:38:56 pm
I see you watched the debate, then, Toby.

I had enough misery pre-Pregabalin, to subject myself to listen to that twat Johnson waffle on.

O Jesus Christ no. I just listen to the informative election cast podcast, but I think that anyone to any extent politically informed could have guessed that Johnson would just say 'get brexit done' 956 times, each repetition interspersed with Corbyn croaking 'our NHS'.

The Conservatives have updated 'the cut and thrust of political debate' to lying in misspelt comic sans on Facebook, Labour seem to be in the process of realising that they are going to lose, and the Lib Dems have fully accepted this and seem to be planning on how to undermine whoever does.

I see that the Green manifesto includes making state sanctioned psycho active drugs eg MDMA available at pharmacies subject to a prior health check. F*ck 40 new hospitals or the 4 day week, I'm voting Green.  ;D
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 20, 2019, 11:48:21 pm
Incidentally there is a very good recent edition of the beyond today podcast about political memes and ads on social media.

It's a piece of piss to put up official ads:
https://en-gb.facebook.com/business/help/208949576550051

But many of the bullshit ads aren't tagged as political anyway, which gets around this extremely cursory check. There is a directory where you can search all the UK political Facebook ads as well, should you want to
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 21, 2019, 12:57:44 am
A couple of media points...

The Guardian is the only broadsheet owned by a trust rather than an oligarch or the Barclay brothers (I think)....
You think wrong, the trust quietly became a limited company in 2008, The Scott Trust Ltd.  They also own the Observer and various other ‘media interests’. 

I have now watched the debate (can’t watch live because we have no license), found it very strange from the off (the introductions followed by stares into camera were quite disturbing), not enough time given to answer questions etc.  Johnson stock answer to any issue ‘get brexit done’.  Corbyn hounded and struggling on which way he’d campaign on 2nd ref.  Why not say I won’t campaign for either it’s up to the public? (He was halfway there).  Corbyn was super quick/ fast witted on the Christmas present question. 
It’s pretty clear to you all where I stand on all of this and at some point I will resurrect my post from the last GE to give my view some context.  The leaders are who they are that’s not changing now, as a parent and a teacher with a disabled wife it’s not a hard choice for me to make.
An amusing story from the weekend, I was out campaigning at the weekend, next to the LP stand in our local town a local legend and genuine communist was selling the Morning Star.  I’ve been out twice and the public have generally been very respectful, with a very positive response on the whole considering this is North Devon.  Anyway, an old lady, looking quit frail with frizzy grey hair came past looks annoyed and starts shouting ‘Communists, you Commie Bastards’ at us.  To which the Morning Star vendor responds ‘Don’t flatter them, that’s not what they are’.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 21, 2019, 09:20:47 am
[Anyway, an old lady, looking quit frail with frizzy grey hair came past looks annoyed and starts shouting ‘Communists, you Commie Bastards’ at us.  To which the Morning Star vendor responds ‘Don’t flatter them, that’s not what they are’.

That is an absolutely brilliant anecdote!


I agree with David Aaronovitch in the times today,  in that the debate mainly served to prove many people's utter despair that these are the two candidates for PM,  and that the best that anyone on the centre left or right  can hope for is a hung parliament with as many independents, Liberal Democrats and Greens as possible. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on November 21, 2019, 09:31:20 am

Corbyn hounded and struggling on which way he’d campaign on 2nd ref.  Why not say I won’t campaign for either it’s up to the public? (He was halfway there).


This is my main frustration with Magic Grandpa - and I can't work out whether it's his own arrogance / ineptitude, or bad SPADs / people round him, but sure you know - you KNOW this shit is coming.

Even I can come up with a suitable retort to this one - you go with what you've said Brutus, and when pressed go on the attack:

"Mr Johnson - if I recall correctly, weren't you the person who openly admitted to writing two articles, one in support of Brexit and one against before deciding which side to support?".

Electioncast the other day was saying they thought his document on the NHS was a great prop, piece of potential theatre, but he played it wrongly so its impact was minimised.

This is the thing with Corbyn - I don't doubt his values (I agree with most of it TBH), I think he's a man of integrity, but he's playing a 21st century game by 1984 rules.






Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 21, 2019, 10:18:33 am
This is the thing with Corbyn - I don't doubt his values (I agree with most of it TBH), I think he's a man of integrity, but he's playing a 21st century game by 1984 rules.

I think 1984 is too up to date. It has to be said though, that at least Corbyn has some values, whatever one may think of them. Whereas I'd assert that Johnson has no values whatsoever.
Unfortunately, Corbyn hasn't changed his mind since the early 70s and shows little sign of being remotely competent. Johnson is certainly rather incompetent as well, the leadership debate engendered nothing but utter despair. The audience could only laugh mockingly at both of them.
I'm sticking by the Greens, safe class As from a pharmacy would be just the ticket for coping with the walled, isolated, impoverished dystopia that the country is heading for.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 21, 2019, 10:59:39 am
I’m voting LD.

I would have voted Labour, but they have no chance here in Torbay.
This was a safe LD seat, until the incumbent retired and there was only a narrow (relatively) win by the Cons last time, so, maybe...?

All I want now, are the Tories out.

 I’d vote for Mr E S Capegoat, if I thought he’d unseat the Swivel eyed loons of this government and do something to end the misery of Britain’s vulnerable.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: IanP on November 21, 2019, 12:05:57 pm
I’m voting LD.

I would have voted Labour, but they have no chance here in Torbay.
This was a safe LD seat, until the incumbent retired and there was only a narrow (relatively) win by the Cons last time, so, maybe...?

All I want now, are the Tories out.

 I’d vote for Mr E S Capegoat, if I thought he’d unseat the Swivel eyed loons of this government and do something to end the misery of Britain’s vulnerable.

I agree - viewed with a degree of realism the chances of a majority Labour government is pretty much zero so the options are majority conservative government, minority/coalition conservative or minority/coalition labour/snp/liberal. 

Given the current Johnson/Rees-Mogg/Patel etc madness that is the conservatives I will vote for whoever is best placed non conservative (ignoring Brexit party obvs). 

For info I'd class myself as socially liberal/slightly left of centre, have always voted LD/Labour but don't feel that far away from classic Ken Clarke one nation conservatives either.  Currently feel very much part of the disenfranchised centre.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 21, 2019, 03:53:50 pm
There has been talk of unicorns on here... Are perhaps some people guilty of wanting an unicorn leader?  They’re human beings (Boris may barely qualify for this status), they are fallible and have imperfections like all of us.  Is not intention more important? besides it’s not like they’re running the whole show by themselves. Much of LP policy is decided by the collective of membership, JC is Democrat and will compromise on his own beliefs as evidenced by the new manifesto (the ‘centre’ has clearly had an influence), this is a great leadership quality in itself.  Name me a PM that even came close to the unicorn you are after? (I’m sure the rest of us will easily dismantle the myth). 
I’ve just read a post from someone saying they won’t vote for a candidate because they don’t like their accent and they closed their eyes to much in the video they had seen.  Maybe the sun was out.  I question the wisdom of anyone’s decision making if it based in these kind of thought processes.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on November 21, 2019, 04:05:38 pm
There has been talk of unicorns on here... Are perhaps some people guilty of wanting an unicorn leader?  They’re human beings (Boris may barely qualify for this status), they are fallible and have imperfections like all of us.  Is not intention more important?

I think this is the category error the Corbyites are making in this election.

I think the public sees / values intention a lot less, or at least intention (like it or not) needs to be managed / spun.

Name me a PM that even came close to the unicorn you are after? (I’m sure the rest of us will easily dismantle the myth). 

Go on then. I'll bite. Tony Blair.




Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 21, 2019, 04:35:24 pm
 :lol:
I don’t know where to start 3T.

Another anecdote, a random bloke I met told me he had been to see JC talk one evening in London, on the same day JC was in Scotland, then Derbyshire and onto London.  He left the talk and began the walk home at 11ish in the evening only to bump into JC.  He took the opportunity to ask for a selfie with JC whom obliged.  What happened next sums up what I know of the man. At this stage in such a long day you would think JC would be polite but maybe want to get on.  He didn’t, he stopped, chatted to the man, spoke to him about where he was from, about issues in that place, named local people he knew and was friends with, spent 20 mins listening, chatting and exchanging stories.  He knows and understands real people because he will always take time to talk with them another sign of a good leader.  We can easily focus on negativity and miss the positives, so here is a positive to add some balance.  I can’t imagine either of Johnson or Swinson engaging with proles in this manner..
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nutty on November 21, 2019, 04:44:53 pm
There has been talk of unicorns on here... Are perhaps some people guilty of wanting an unicorn leader?  They’re human beings (Boris may barely qualify for this status), they are fallible and have imperfections like all of us.  Is not intention more important? besides it’s not like they’re running the whole show by themselves. Much of LP policy is decided by the collective of membership, JC is Democrat and will compromise on his own beliefs as evidenced by the new manifesto (the ‘centre’ has clearly had an influence), this is a great leadership quality in itself.  Name me a PM that even came close to the unicorn you are after? (I’m sure the rest of us will easily dismantle the myth).
I don't think it's unreasonable to want a leader who isn't tainted by accusations of anti-semitism. That's not an issue of human fallibility. As for intentions, I've heard they can be used for road paving... :devil-smiley:

I’ve just read a post from someone saying they won’t vote for a candidate because they don’t like their accent and they closed their eyes to much in the video they had seen.  Maybe the sun was out.  I question the wisdom of anyone’s decision making if it based in these kind of thought processes.
Maybe the accent indicates the candidate has been parachuted in and might not be a good local MP? Closing their eyes too much could be a nervous tic which doesn't inspire confidence - I don't believe the sun's been out for months! I'm playing devil's advocate a bit, but it's naive to think that there aren't vast swathes of people who make their choice based on appearances - remember Ed Miliband's bacon sandwich?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 21, 2019, 05:05:05 pm
She’s been a local GP for the last 10 years so doesn’t see the sky so much ;)

If it is a fact that ‘vast swathes’ of people base their decisions on such triviality it is a damning indictment of our so called democracy. Is it not?!

Not getting into the AS thing again, it will go around in circles but I will, if I may, offer a positive and alternative narrative to what is generally seen around these parts because I genuinely view things differently and it is healthy for others to read it.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 21, 2019, 05:18:55 pm
Tories have received 87% of all donations since campaign started 😱

5.7 million to 0.2 compared to Labour..

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50508009
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Fiend on November 21, 2019, 05:42:14 pm
Buying the way into power, sponsored by the uber-rich who will benefit from them??
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nutty on November 21, 2019, 05:58:07 pm
If it is a fact that ‘vast swathes’ of people base their decisions on such triviality it is a damning indictment of our so called democracy. Is it not?!
Oh yes. Least worst system we've tried isn't it? You're clearly politically engaged and value your vote, but a lot of people aren't and don't. It's boring and thinking is hard so they unquestioningly vote for red/blue because that's how their family has always voted, or they vote for the guy in the smart suit with the nice smile, or the chap who's always drinking a pint in a pub and echoes their prejudices. Or they stay at home because what's the point?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on November 21, 2019, 06:52:38 pm
:lol:
I don’t know where to start 3T.

I'm being (semi) serious.

The unicorn I want is a principled, honourable candidate for PM, with left / centre-left / not raging Tory boy ideas, but the ability to sell / spin / whore themselves out to the media in the way necessary to get it across to the plebiscite.

Is that too much to ask?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 21, 2019, 06:57:06 pm
Nick Clegg then?

Being semi serious. He’s rep is shot - but someone like him in his prime.

Apart from Starmer or Benn I’m struggling to think of anyone else in the present cohort.

3T for PM!!!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on November 21, 2019, 07:05:57 pm
David Miliband
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 21, 2019, 07:30:47 pm
:lol:
I don’t know where to start 3T.

I'm being (semi) serious.

The unicorn I want is a principled, honourable candidate for PM, with left / centre-left / not raging Tory boy ideas, but the ability to sell / spin / whore themselves out to the media in the way necessary to get it across to the plebiscite.

Is that too much to ask?
oh my dear goodness we couldn’t be further apart  :lol:  Principled, honourable, not raging Tory boy ideas and you give us Blair, Benn (Tony was the man, I assume we’re talking Hilary though) and Clegg.  The fact you refer to folk as plebiscite too, really, are you demonstrating your own superiority in this way?  You want someone principled that’s prepared to whore themselves out to the media. Sounding unicorn like to me ::)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 21, 2019, 07:51:30 pm
David Milliband as Home Secretary there was some dodgy involvement in renditions to Guantanamo wasn’t there?  His dad was a Marxist, I’m sure the MSM would lap those up.  Rumour was he was coming back from his job in the States to start a new party, it never happened though.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: spidermonkey09 on November 21, 2019, 07:53:53 pm
David Miliband

The ultimate in political unicorns there; so irrelevant he moved to the States years ago and has resisted every fawning attempt to coax him back since; a wise move!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 21, 2019, 08:30:31 pm
(I don't like any of your ideas comments...)

(forgive the paraphrasing above :) )

So Brutus - who in the present PLP would you say could make a good prime minister candidate?

If we take Corbyn and McDonnel out of the picture?

Someone with charisma - appeal - a good touch with people - who could bring people together.... I'm stuck TBH... Maybe I don't know enough about the PLP (certainly some of the faces who pop up to do media duty I've not seen before and seem quite inexperienced..)

Apart from Jess Philipps - maybe - who I like... nope - can't think of anyone else...

Fuck, the Tory party is just as bad... Rory Stewart seemed OK (until the incident with the three blokes in London on his walkabout) but he's now toast...

And the Jo Swinsons (sorry Lib Dems) - I admire her pluck and how she's going for it 100% but....

IS THERE ANYBODY OUT THERE??

Beuller?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 21, 2019, 08:57:37 pm
I know plenty of folk who only ever refer to McDonnell as "Commie John". Even he could do better than Corbyn. Corbyn's just...angry. He's a radical, and he rubs the middle class up the wrong way because he's calling out them and the people that they've voted for all their lives. McDonnell has a softer approach.

My dream Labour leader is Keir Starmer, sorry, Sir Keir Starmer QC.

I admire your passion, Brutus, but I think you've hugely overestimated how engaged and thoughtful the majority of the electorate are. The vast majority of people, who you or I might rarely meet or associate with, are still stuck in thinking that Conservatives are firm but careful, and Labour are kindly but wasteful. How anyone can look at the modern Conservative party and think they're a safe and steady pair of hands is beyond me, but I promise you that we'll all wake up on the 13th December (our work Christmas do. What a jolly affair that will be) and find out that most of the country think that.


This is as good a place as any to mention this. I was in Westminster for work today and the workshop I was at finished early so I went to have a tour of the Houses of Parliament. Went to the Queen's dressing room, the Moses Room, stood in the red benches in the House of Lord's (dusty as fuck and mega plush), went through that little lobby with the Post Office where the news reporters always interview MPs before they go into the division lobbies, walked through the No lobby, stood in House of Commons (a couple of rows back from where the Dear Leader sits) and saw Jo Cox's shield on the wall behind (each MP who is kiled in service has one - most are from WW1/2), and stood in the hall where medieval banquets were held and Sir Thomas More was sentenced to be executed.
When it functions properly our parliamentary democracy is fucking fab. I'm so glad I got to see where it all happens before the commons benches fill up with a load of fuckwitted Europhobic zealots.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 21, 2019, 09:23:59 pm
Jess.

‘Nuff said.


Seriously though, Brutus, given the reality of Corbyn’s image and unpopularity outside of the Labour hard core, you don’t perceive your own unicorn hunting credentials?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 21, 2019, 09:32:39 pm
(I don't like any of your ideas comments...)

You’ve just paraphrased the entire thread. 

Point is the choice is there on the table, you can eat what’s on offer, whatever you find most palatable if you have to or have something you don’t really like for the greater good.  Maybe focus on the starters (your local candidates) rather than desert. Have a try of something different maybe see if you like it or eat the same shit you’ve been eating for the last however many years or don’t bother.  No amount whining will change it right now, dinner is served.

People with similar views to me have been eating shit they don’t like for a lifetime, I’ve certainly held my nose with regularity when voting in the past, this is how it feels. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on November 21, 2019, 09:38:21 pm
David Miliband

The ultimate in political unicorns there; so irrelevant he moved to the States years ago and has resisted every fawning attempt to coax him back since; a wise move!

Not quite; they are all unicorns in that sense as this is essentially a parlour game of what ifs and what might-have-beens. Irrelevant every one, if we are facing reality.

The 2010 election might have looked very different had Labour chosen the more dexterous and electable leader.

From that; this. McCluskey has a lot to answer for.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nutty on November 21, 2019, 09:42:26 pm
I admire your passion, Brutus, but I think you've hugely overestimated how engaged and thoughtful the majority of the electorate are. The vast majority of people, who you or I might rarely meet or associate with, are still stuck in thinking that Conservatives are firm but careful, and Labour are kindly but wasteful. How anyone can look at the modern Conservative party and think they're a safe and steady pair of hands is beyond me, but I promise you that we'll all wake up on the 13th December (our work Christmas do. What a jolly affair that will be) and find out that most of the country think that.
Nail on the head there Will. I had a colleague at work say they were going to vote Conservative because they're good with the economy - despite them being led by Mr 'Fuck Business' and their aim to 'Get Brexit Done' which will trash the economy and the billions pissed away on no-deal Brexit preparations.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 21, 2019, 11:17:55 pm
David Miliband

The ultimate in political unicorns there; so irrelevant he moved to the States years ago and has resisted every fawning attempt to coax him back since; a wise move!

Not quite; they are all unicorns in that sense as this is essentially a parlour game of what ifs and what might-have-beens. Irrelevant every one, if we are facing reality.
The 2010 election might have looked very different had Labour chosen the more dexterous and electable leader.
From that; this. McCluskey has a lot to answer for.

In that he's the biggest donor to the Labour party by some margin (by which I mean that unite is).
I regularly listen to Nick Robinson's Political Thinking podcast and McCluskey is the only person who has come across as rather unpleasant. They're always asked about their personal motivations, how they came to believe what they do, and everyone else I can think of came across as human and to some extent reasonable except him.

David Milliband is in no way irrelevant, he has a far more influential and effectual position now, than Corbyn and McDonnell are very likely to ever have. It's all very well being a radical opposition with some exciting ideas but it's absolutely no use whatsoever if nowhere near enough people will vote for you. Labour are going to have to pull a pretty fucking big rabbit out of their hat to avoid getting humiliated at the election, is my current guess.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 21, 2019, 11:37:15 pm
Nick Clegg then?

Considerably better than either of the current two candidates for PM, and I am fully serious.
Starmer, though undoubtedly intelligent, competent and an excellent MP lacks the TV / social media charisma that you have to consider to work realistically as a leader. I really like Jess Phillips as well, but my strong suspicion is that an awful lot of people don't, and probably for the same reasons that I think she's great. (Vocal feminist, strong morals doesn't take herself seriously, not afraid to say things that might make her unpopular).
Of the actual likely successors to labour leadership, what about Emily Thornberry? Unlikely I know since she had the cheek to try to say that Labour was definitely for remain, and has since been sidelined.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: joeisidle on November 22, 2019, 07:58:17 am
I admire your passion, Brutus, but I think you've hugely overestimated how engaged and thoughtful the majority of the electorate are. The vast majority of people, who you or I might rarely meet or associate with, are still stuck in thinking that Conservatives are firm but careful, and Labour are kindly but wasteful. How anyone can look at the modern Conservative party and think they're a safe and steady pair of hands is beyond me, but I promise you that we'll all wake up on the 13th December (our work Christmas do. What a jolly affair that will be) and find out that most of the country think that.
Nail on the head there Will. I had a colleague at work say they were going to vote Conservative because they're good with the economy - despite them being led by Mr 'Fuck Business' and their aim to 'Get Brexit Done' which will trash the economy and the billions pissed away on no-deal Brexit preparations.

Couldn't agree with this more. I work in local government in an office of relatively well-educated people, but about 50% were what I'd describe as aware of politics prior to the EU referendum, with the rest not really knowing/caring and viewing it as separate to their day to day lives. Even now casting round for voting intentions,I haven't heard anything that doesn't  reflect a  relatively surface-level media representation of a party/viewpoint, e.g. "I won't vote for Labour because they'll tax me too much", "I would vote for Labour but I just don't like Corbyn, he's too divisive", "They're all the same though aren't they, Corbyn, Johnson, they all lie, what's the difference", "I voted remain but we just need to pull together and get the job done now" etc. Don't think I've heard anyone mention a manifesto, a leader's historic voting record etc, consideration of why Corbyn got in as leader in the first place etc. This is a complete finger in the air guess, but I can't help but think that if the majority of the public were that different then the Daily Mail, Sun et. al. have really been missing a trick in terms of how they've been attacking the left over the last few decades.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 22, 2019, 08:17:32 am
Exactly Joe and it’s what the Labour supporters just can’t seem to see.

There is also the fact, that many people of working class background, who have dragged themselves into middle class and earning brackets; think they are now part of the Tory “gang”. They believe the Tories speak for them and Labour hate them (not helped be Labour activists that still bandy about terms like “class traitor”).
I used to think along similar lines, until I started working for senior Tories and grasped the stupefying difference between what we think of as “middle class” or “affluent” (really, just working class with tinsel and some plastic baubles) and the people who the Tories actually represent.
I have tried communicate this to my peers. They don’t get it.
I still get shit like this on my time line everyday.
The mate who shared this, grew up in Kinghorn, his Ma cleaned thecouncil offices, his Da welded in the yards building Rigs. In my 20’s  I spent many a leave period, sleeping on the floor of their council house front room. He’s a senior consultant in a major North Sea Engineering company now, his wife Jumps horses and they have several hectares near Aberdeen.
But, this is as complicated as his political thinking gets:

(https://i.ibb.co/Rb76vbB/7-CB6-A47-A-9232-4-E76-9-F9-B-7-B786-CA621-FB.jpg)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 22, 2019, 08:39:37 am
Exactly Joe and it’s what the Labour supporters just can’t seem to see.
...

Despite Labour's undoubted effectiveness at 'organic' social media,  their image among anyone who isn't really interested in politics has fallen incredibly low I think. Corbyn is pretty much seen as an out of touch old Commie, and for some reason an out of touch over privileged mildly obese pontificating liar seems like a better bet.
For anyone who does read the news occasionally,  reports of their manifesto wont have helped.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 22, 2019, 08:50:27 am
I still think this is impossible to call. In the last election Corbyn was written off (by me included) predicting impeding Tory landslide. But they didn’t happen. To my amazement...

Also - May - whilst not popular - was not unpopular with some like Boris is. She was by many seen as a safe pair of hands etc... Boris is not seen as that. The Tories have minimal centre ground appeal this time - whereas last time they did.

How all this plays out who knows - but I wouldn’t put money on anything other than a hung parliament. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: SA Chris on November 22, 2019, 09:09:35 am
Amusingly we got some election propaganda through the post from the Scottish Cons. It still has Ruth Davidson all over it.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 22, 2019, 10:33:40 am
More propaganda

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-fake-labour-manifesto-website-fact-check-general-election-a9212076.html
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: joeisidle on November 22, 2019, 10:34:35 am
I still think this is impossible to call. In the last election Corbyn was written off (by me included) predicting impeding Tory landslide. But they didn’t happen. To my amazement...

Also - May - whilst not popular - was not unpopular with some like Boris is. She was by many seen as a safe pair of hands etc... Boris is not seen as that. The Tories have minimal centre ground appeal this time - whereas last time they did.

How all this plays out who knows - but I wouldn’t put money on anything other than a hung parliament.

Completely sympathise with this view; I was equally amazed at how the 2017 election played out for Corbyn and am cautious about making the same mistake now, but do think there's less cause for optimism this time round. From memory (and happy to be proved wrong!) a key part of Corbyn's success last time round was Labour (very) narrowly hanging onto key marginals in strongly leave-voting areas - e.g. Dudley North and Newcastle-under-Lyme. I.e. it wasn't enough that he managed to mobilise the youth vote on its own, he had to retain a large section of the working class leave vote in order to achieve what was still a narrow loss to May. Part of the way this appeared to be achieved was based on Labour's deliberately ambiguous Brexit policy, i.e. we'll vote to trigger article 50, but won't rule out second referendum depending on who you ask, so everyone could read what they wanted to into the party on this front.

Since then, Labour appear to have been painted as the blockers of Brexit in certain parts of the media and dragged over the coals for their 'unclear' Brexit stance - see where the audience laughed the most in the TV debate. The idea that they'll retain as much as they did of leave voting areas, or divert the public's focus from Brexit to the NHS this time round seems unlikely, particularly as Johnson seems to be trying to guard against this through increased spending promises on public services (and appears to be more popular than May in polling). Equally, I'm not seeing any evidence that Momentum are going to be more effective in mobilising the youth vote than they did last time round, which they would need to be if they're going to offset any losses from other areas. However, not part of active campaigning so could be completely misreading this.

So, I really hope you're right, and really hope I'm making a load of rubbish assumptions in all of the above. Just feel like recent events (2017 election aside) don't inspire optimism.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: galpinos on November 22, 2019, 11:04:57 am
I.e. it wasn't enough that he managed to mobilise the youth vote on its own,

I know this gets trotted out a lot but there was no significant increase in youth turnout between 2015 and 2017 (it might have even decreased when you look at the error bands of the polling) and overall turnout increased by 2.5%.

It wasn't the youth who enabled Corbyn to do better than expected.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Fiend on November 22, 2019, 11:20:17 am
More propaganda:

https://www.thetorymanifesto.com
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 22, 2019, 01:32:36 pm
Two contrasting views of the labour manifesto

After a decade of decay, Labour’s manifesto offers us hope for the future
Gary Young:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/22/after-a-decade-of-decay-labours-manifesto-offers-us-hope-for-the-future?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard


Phillip Collins: (paywall)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-2019-labours-manifesto-is-mere-wishful-thinking-mflqs79sc

Hope, or wishful thinking? My thoughts are that it's basically Corbyns student dreams put down in an awful lot of paper, and that it will be the end of his leadership, but I would be content to be proved wrong by a hung parliament with a solid contingent of LDs and a few Greens.

The best possible outcome of the election would be for BJ to lose his seat (partially meant flippantly! ) But I still think he'll get a small majority, sadly.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 22, 2019, 02:05:35 pm
Despite my misgivings, it has to be said that there is a decent cohort of people who are animated Remainers or else very upset with the Conservatives and who are probably willing to vote tactically for Labour as their principle motivation is to damage the Conservatives. Quite possibly a big enough group to force a hung parliament but almost certainly outnumbered by tribal Conservatives, Brexit enthusiasts, and those who warm to Johnson's bumbling charisma.

I'm aware that this isn't a very fair view of things. If Labour are shafted: Corbyn's fault; if Labour win: in spite of Corbyn. Not very impartial but I'd be happy to admit that I'm wrong in the latter scenario if there's some evidence to demonstrate it.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 22, 2019, 02:10:59 pm
Bumbling charisma?

Surely you mean racist, homophobic, xenophobic and authoritarian traits, barely disguised by a scruffy, jolly, assumed personality?

That took longer to write but I feel “bumbling charisma” failed to encompass the full breadth of his talents.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: IanP on November 22, 2019, 02:45:51 pm
Two contrasting views of the labour manifesto

After a decade of decay, Labour’s manifesto offers us hope for the future
Gary Young:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/22/after-a-decade-of-decay-labours-manifesto-offers-us-hope-for-the-future?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard


Phillip Collins: (paywall)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/election-2019-labours-manifesto-is-mere-wishful-thinking-mflqs79sc

Hope, or wishful thinking? My thoughts are that it's basically Corbyns student dreams put down in an awful lot of paper, and that it will be the end of his leadership, but I would be content to be proved wrong by a hung parliament with a solid contingent of LDs and a few Greens.

The best possible outcome of the election would be for BJ to lose his seat (partially meant flippantly! ) But I still think he'll get a small majority, sadly.

And Paul Johnson https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14595

All the talk about whether Jeremy Corbyn is being mis-represented by the 'mainstream' media doesn't change the fact that this a clearly a radical and left wing labour manifesto.  Some on here probably see this as a good thing, from a personal political/economic viewpoint and a more general view of the electoral position I think it's very much a bad thing.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on November 22, 2019, 02:46:15 pm

oh my dear goodness we couldn’t be further apart  :lol: 

Principled, honourable, not raging Tory boy ideas and you give us Blair...

The fact you refer to folk as plebiscite too, really, are you demonstrating your own superiority in this way? 

You want someone principled that’s prepared to whore themselves out to the media. Sounding unicorn like to me ::)


Like it or not, he led the Labour Party to 3 election wins on the bounce (one landslide), and once in power oversaw dramatic increases in spending on the NHS, his government implemented to Good Friday Agreement and implemented the Civil Partnerships Act.


All this talk of "Blairite" being used as an insult in the current Labour ranks I think does a disservice to the debt the country and the party owes him.

For any Iraq whataboutery I assume is coming I think we should put that in the same box as your lack of concerns about current Labour antisemitism.

I guess my point is - your can have the best policies in the world but you need to win elections, and to do that you need to understand how to win elections. Whatever you think about the guy, the Blairites knew how to win elections. I strongly suspect that the team around Corbyn does not.

Oh, and re: "plebiscite"- far from trying to instigate a class war - I meant it as a synonym for "voters":

https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/plebiscite (https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/plebiscite)


#centristdad signing off...

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 22, 2019, 02:55:22 pm
Britain did rather well under Blair. I already said that in this thread (it’s a verifiable statement), I also said “reimagine his legacy, without Iraq”; because it would be a very, very, different legacy.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: rich d on November 22, 2019, 02:56:42 pm
to sum up people's idiocy in voting, two people I know.  He's postman and his wife works in a school. They're both voting Tory - as Borris is "getting us out of Europe" and "has something about him" plus Corbyn is a "scruffy lefty" who still supports the IRA.
This is despite it obviously not being in their interest to have a Tory government.
I don't mind how people vote but at least chose for a decent reason.
On a similar strand some others were overheard saying I just want Brexit to happen now as it's getting really boring and it's depressing when you watch the news.
Fucking muppets
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 22, 2019, 05:09:41 pm
I.e. it wasn't enough that he managed to mobilise the youth vote on its own,

I know this gets trotted out a lot but there was no significant increase in youth turnout between 2015 and 2017 (it might have even decreased when you look at the error bands of the polling) and overall turnout increased by 2.5%.

It wasn't the youth who enabled Corbyn to do better than expected.

Really?
https://www.ft.com/content/6734cdde-550b-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: joeisidle on November 22, 2019, 05:40:08 pm
I.e. it wasn't enough that he managed to mobilise the youth vote on its own,

I know this gets trotted out a lot but there was no significant increase in youth turnout between 2015 and 2017 (it might have even decreased when you look at the error bands of the polling) and overall turnout increased by 2.5%.

It wasn't the youth who enabled Corbyn to do better than expected.

Really?
https://www.ft.com/content/6734cdde-550b-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f

Interesting article that seems to explain what galpinos is referencing; https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42747342
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: shark on November 22, 2019, 07:12:35 pm
Like it or not, he led the Labour Party to 3 election wins on the bounce (one landslide), and once in power oversaw dramatic increases in spending on the NHS, his government implemented to Good Friday Agreement and implemented the Civil Partnerships Act.

As I understand it the heavy lifting that led to the Good Friday Agreement was done by John Major. Blair IMO was a disappointment - I voted for him and don't think he delivered on the rhetoric especially at a time when he was riding the crest of an economic wave. He talked big on social reform but the results were lacking though there was decent investment in schools and hospitals through PFI funny money.  I'm very glad that Brown kept him from us joining the euro.     
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: spidermonkey09 on November 22, 2019, 07:59:11 pm

David Milliband is in no way irrelevant, he has a far more influential and effectual position now, than Corbyn and McDonnell are very likely to ever have.

Am I missing something here?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on November 22, 2019, 08:23:44 pm
He’s director of the IRC so he gets to help people. Corbyn gets to talk about helping people. Not quite as impactful?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 22, 2019, 09:12:38 pm
He’s director of the IRC so he gets to help people. Corbyn gets to talk about helping people. Not quite as impactful?

Yes, thank you that is what I was referred to.
On a world stage, Corbyn is totally irrelevant, Milliband is not, the IRC have been doing a lot in the developing human tragedy that is Syria. Arguably, that's also significantly more important than whatever the fuck it is Boris Johnson does with his time.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 23, 2019, 11:02:47 am
Has the leaders' question time spelt the considerable demise of hope of not getting a conservative majority? If anyone much pays attention to these things,  everyone seemed to agree that Jo Swinson got absolutely hammered,  the only person who thought Corbyn did well was surprise surprise,  Owen Jones:

The Question Time leaders' special: our panel’s verdicts
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/22/question-time-leaders-special-boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

BBC News - Question Time debate: No comfortable ride in election special for party leaders
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50525528

Johnson did get some pretty stout criticism,  but arguably came out of it slightly better. Sturgeon seemed to be the winner but not really sure what she was doing there, given that she doesn't have a seat in Westminster?

Really hoping that any of the opposition parties have a pretty bloody good plan of how to turn it around, but not optimistic. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 23, 2019, 11:44:56 am
Do you really think QT is that influential? Swinson got hammered  because she stands against the idiocy of the English drift to political extremes and the BBC 'balanced audience' will be in denial about that.  Sturgeon (being there as the party leader) is probably seen as an irrelevance by such an audience, so gets off lightly. Its a terrible format for such a combined leader's debate.

Anything but determined optimism is daft if progressives want to win: just 40 Labour marginals to defend in the Midlands and North if the SNP take most tory seats in Scotland and the Lib Dems pick up around 10 in the S and SW. In an aftermath discussion on Newsnight Sam Grimah tried to point out his local polling (like that of other Lib Dem target seats) was doing very well indeed but the presenter was having none of it (Lib Dems are historically efficient at targeting seats).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 23, 2019, 11:53:53 am
I.e. it wasn't enough that he managed to mobilise the youth vote on its own,

I know this gets trotted out a lot but there was no significant increase in youth turnout between 2015 and 2017 (it might have even decreased when you look at the error bands of the polling) and overall turnout increased by 2.5%.

It wasn't the youth who enabled Corbyn to do better than expected.

Really?
https://www.ft.com/content/6734cdde-550b-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f

Interesting article that seems to explain what galpinos is referencing; https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42747342

The data showing elsewhere on larger survey numbers and smaller error bars (up to +/-10% is huge) directly contradicts that study. Calling it gold standard is based on what exactly?  I'd add that the original 'youthquake' data was based on under 35s something this survey ignores... even this survey shows a clear increase in under 35 voters... voters who traditionally are more likely to vote Labour... especially so in a 'two horse race' like 2017 became. There was clearly a youth effect in the under 35s. There was also an SNP effect and probably a dissaffected with May UKIP voter not voting effect.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40219338
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Stu Littlefair on November 23, 2019, 12:27:12 pm
Has the leaders' question time spelt the considerable demise of hope of not getting a conservative majority? If anyone much pays attention to these things,  everyone seemed to agree that Jo Swinson got absolutely hammered,  the only person who thought Corbyn did well was surprise surprise,  Owen Jones:

If you really think Johnson came out of that better than Corbyn then your prejudices were watching, and not your eyes. Corbyn was hammered at the start (particularly on anti-semitism) but was warmly applauded throughout and occasionally cheered. Johnson was harangued throughout and occasionally jeered.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 23, 2019, 01:19:08 pm
The recent polling on those London seats which are now three way marginals with Labour in third (all three seats are outside of the range of the main top ten Lib Dem target seats  in the S and SW)

https://www.markpack.org.uk/160332/three-constituency-polls-show-lib-dem-vote-up-very-sharply-in-key-seats/

As the article asks.. will Labour voters vote tactically in such constituencies to keep out some pretty unappetising tories?

If the tories lose seats like these getting a majority looks very tough indeed.

 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 23, 2019, 02:09:07 pm
Has the leaders' question time spelt the considerable demise of hope of not getting a conservative majority? If anyone much pays attention to these things,  everyone seemed to agree that Jo Swinson got absolutely hammered,  the only person who thought Corbyn did well was surprise surprise,  Owen Jones:

If you really think Johnson came out of that better than Corbyn then your prejudices were watching, and not your eyes. Corbyn was hammered at the start (particularly on anti-semitism) but was warmly applauded throughout and occasionally cheered. Johnson was harangued throughout and occasionally jeered.

Interesting, I didn't actually watch it, just listened to a few short bits and read various reports. Perhaps that reflects what I was reading, ( too much Times? )
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 23, 2019, 02:51:14 pm
Another Guardian pundit who agrees with me (most of his 'don't dismiss local differences' evidence is about a Labour seat that should be safe but might go tory... so hardly extreme optimism). His main thesis is the finishing oine for Corbyn is maybe as low as 270 compared to the 321 that Boris needs.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/22/labour-majority-corbyn-downing-street
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Fultonius on November 23, 2019, 04:52:53 pm
Has the leaders' question time spelt the considerable demise of hope of not getting a conservative majority? If anyone much pays attention to these things,  everyone seemed to agree that Jo Swinson got absolutely hammered,  the only person who thought Corbyn did well was surprise surprise,  Owen Jones:

If you really think Johnson came out of that better than Corbyn then your prejudices were watching, and not your eyes. Corbyn was hammered at the start (particularly on anti-semitism) but was warmly applauded throughout and occasionally cheered. Johnson was harangued throughout and occasionally jeered.

Interesting, I didn't actually watch it, just listened to a few short bits and read various reports. Perhaps that reflects what I was reading, ( too much Times? )

It's interesting how it can be perceived. I felt that too many questions on Corbyn were "laying the man not the ball", but when it got onto policy he was hitting home.

Johnson pulled most things back to brexit, and when his trustworthyness was questions, he said he "delivered on his plans" when he was mayor, while vaguely shrugging and accepting that 9 years of Tory austerity was basically fucking the county. He didn't even seem to try to defend it. He looked pretty fatigued.

I decided to delve into the spectator blog afterwards, and they seemed to think he was "on point" and got his message across well.

How anyone can see the two visions of the UK and chose the Tory one, after their last 9 years is beyond me.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 23, 2019, 05:45:32 pm
All the talk about whether Jeremy Corbyn is being mis-represented by the 'mainstream' media doesn't change the fact that this a clearly a radical and left wing labour manifesto.  Some on here probably see this as a good thing, from a personal political/economic viewpoint and a more general view of the electoral position I think it's very much a bad thing.
It is absolutely a good thing for education, for the NHS, for social care, for disabled people, for women, for children, for those living in poverty.  Admittedly it will be not so good for food banks or billionaires.  Dislike the narrative that this is extreme or far left, maybe we have been thrown so deep into the austerity hole that it seems that way but if you compare the proposals to other countries it ain’t that radical.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 23, 2019, 07:40:38 pm
Latest Observer/oppinium poll has the torys on a 19 point lead .. 😱
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 23, 2019, 11:15:29 pm
All the talk about whether Jeremy Corbyn is being mis-represented by the 'mainstream' media doesn't change the fact that this a clearly a radical and left wing labour manifesto.  Some on here probably see this as a good thing, from a personal political/economic viewpoint and a more general view of the electoral position I think it's very much a bad thing.
It is absolutely a good thing for education, for the NHS, for social care, for disabled people, for women, for children, for those living in poverty.  Admittedly it will be not so good for food banks or billionaires.  Dislike the narrative that this is extreme or far left, maybe we have been thrown so deep into the austerity hole that it seems that way but if you compare the proposals to other countries it ain’t that radical.

Speaking as someone who works for the NHS, I'm not so sure. I think that throwing a vast amount of money of it of the order that Labour propose without first reforming the way that health and social care work will result in massive waste without much lasting tangible benefit. I think that all of the parties are terrified of putting off elderly voters and avoiding the real issues.

I think that you might be in a tiny minority in not seeing Labours manifesto as extremely radical. I'm not saying that that's intrinsically a bad thing, by the way.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: spidermonkey09 on November 23, 2019, 11:20:07 pm
He’s director of the IRC so he gets to help people. Corbyn gets to talk about helping people. Not quite as impactful?

Yes, thank you that is what I was referred to.
On a world stage, Corbyn is totally irrelevant, Milliband is not, the IRC have been doing a lot in the developing human tragedy that is Syria. Arguably, that's also significantly more important than whatever the fuck it is Boris Johnson does with his time.

I thought we were talking about plausible UK politicians rather than literally anyone on the world stage who is influential! On that basis I'd be happy for Jurgen Klopp to give PM a go, he's influential... :lol:

I also heartily second Stu's interpretation of the debate. I also read the Times courtesy of my grandparents subscription and the anti Labour vibe is beyond a joke in a supposedly sensible newspaper. Today they had a piece with someone who owned 27 properties giving a sob story about potentially paying more tax!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 24, 2019, 12:03:37 am
the anti Labour vibe is beyond a joke in a supposedly sensible newspaper. Today they had a piece with someone who owned 27 properties giving a sob story about potentially paying more tax!

Yes that was rather silly, and The Times his noticeably more partial as soon as there's an election called. However, it's no worse than the Guardian in this respect, just with a different slant. Both publish columnists with a range of opinions, and I think you just have to bear the editorial line in mind when you read them, or any other newspaper.

Analysis of another poll predicting comfortable majority for the Conservatives:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/11/conservatives-course-majority-boris-johnson-could-lose-his-seat

But, interestingly saying that it's not impossible that Johnson, Raab, IDS and Zac Goldsmith could all lose their seats even if they do. I wonder what the hell would happen then?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 24, 2019, 09:14:07 am
Quote
I think that you might be in a tiny minority in not seeing Labours manifesto as extremely radical. I'm not saying that that's intrinsically a bad thing, by the way.
I might be?!  The point I was making is that it isn’t radical, it is being framed as such but if we actually compare the proposals to other countries rather than our shite state of affairs it all seems very reasonable/ sensible.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 24, 2019, 09:51:47 am
Latest Observer/oppinium poll has the torys on a 19 point lead .. 😱
[/quote

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/tories-renewed-poll-boost-brexit-party-candidates-pull-out-opinium-observer

In the article it says they have changed the mechanism to deal with Brexit not standing in tory seats. If you read the small print, the lead over Labour is the same (16% ) in Labour marfinals and they need close to that given the local issues and Brexit standing. As a progressive I'm more worried about Labour seats in London.

Also in the Observer:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 24, 2019, 12:07:48 pm
Latest Observer/oppinium poll has the torys on a 19 point lead .. 😱
[/quote

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/tories-renewed-poll-boost-brexit-party-candidates-pull-out-opinium-observer

In the article it says they have changed the mechanism to deal with Brexit not standing in tory seats. If you read the small print, the lead over Labour is the same (16% ) in Labour marfinals and they need close to that given the local issues and Brexit standing. As a progressive I'm more worried about Labour seats in London.

Also in the Observer:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats
Polling is largely based on historical voting demographics, samples target particular demographics based on who voted in the last GE and are weighted accordingly.  What they can’t predict is who will be motivated to get out and vote. We could also go into who owns the main polling companies that are published and quoted by MSM too and question their impartiality.  In short don’t trust the polls too much.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on November 24, 2019, 12:56:00 pm
I might be?!  The point I was making is that it isn’t radical, it is being framed as such but if we actually compare the proposals to other countries rather than our shite state of affairs it all seems very reasonable/ sensible.

That may be, but the key point is about electability. If enough voters find it too strong a brew the Tories will form the next government with all that implies.

Some Labour supporters decry Blair’s premiership because it marked- for Labour- a shift to the right. But in power, you can actually implement policy and socially, he achieved a lot.

Does the manifesto make a Labour administration more or less likely?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 24, 2019, 01:36:46 pm
Does the manifesto make a Labour administration more or less likely?

Less. The widespread nationalisation, Vat on private school fees, and wealth redistribution will make middle England run a mile. I know labour are hardly going for the home counties anyway, but I'd have thought this would put off a lot of middle class socially liberal Londoners, for example, who might otherwise vote Labour.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: seankenny on November 24, 2019, 03:30:12 pm
What they can’t predict is who will be motivated to get out and vote. We could also go into who owns the main polling companies that are published and quoted by MSM too and question their impartiality.  In short don’t trust the polls too much.

So what exactly are the incentives involved for the polling companies to produce inaccurate results? Do they get more clients from being wrong? And what exactly are the mechanisms - do they employ good statisticians and then pay them to fiddle the figures? Where does the cheat occur and why has no one blown the whistle yet?

Or I could wield Occam's Razor and conclude that the average Corbyn Labour activist is paranoid and enjoys denying reality.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: IanP on November 24, 2019, 04:49:20 pm
I might be?!  The point I was making is that it isn’t radical, it is being framed as such but if we actually compare the proposals to other countries rather than our shite state of affairs it all seems very reasonable/ sensible.
Does the manifesto make a Labour administration more or less likely?

Exactly - it makes a Labour government less likely imo (or more importantly and majority Tory government more likely).

I believe it is a radical manifesto including as it does a very big increase in public spending (according to the IFS to levels last seen in the mid 70s if you exclude the exceptional circumstances of the 2008 financial crash) and there's plenty of specifics I don't think are good ideas.  However I will still vote anti-tory so my personal thoughts are to an extent irrelevant, its the answer to mrjr's question that matters and the left wing of the labour party seems to keeping looking to go the route of some socialist nirvana that they believe just needs the rest of the country to remove the scales from their eyes for everything to change.   All the evidence would point to to this being another failure - it feels just like the 80s except that Johnson is possibly (probably?) worse than Thatcher. 

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: spidermonkey09 on November 24, 2019, 09:04:50 pm
I had a bit of a crisis about this election this morning. I think the best case scenario is a hung parliament, most likely a small improved Tory majority and the worst case a thumping majority. Either way I find the whole thing profoundly depressing; say what you like about the Labour manifesto (I would fall into the camp that holds it isn't that radical in reality) but the fact there looks to be so little voter pushback after 10 years of Tory misrule I find astonishing and really sad. Is this what we've come to? People are honestly going to vote back in these liars and xenophobes (excluding Grieve et al) because they don't like the idea of paying tax in line with the rest of Europe? I truly despair.

My apologies for the likely hopelessly naive and idealistic post but I really did think simple decency/being fed up with the current state of affairs might cut through a bit more than it is. Maybe the polls will be wrong I guess...!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on November 24, 2019, 09:16:07 pm
I take your point spidermonkey. Quite a lot of people haven't prospered under the Tories, but quite a lot of people have, and may not pay a great deal attention to the world outside their own experience.  Quite a lot of people are rather chauvinistic, and quite a lot believe Brexit will bring more positives than negatives. That's quite a lot of people who will be minded to vote Tory.

Add in those who also see Corbyn as a crypto-commie, and it is starting to look like a Tory majority, especially given the split in the remain minded voters between Labour and the LibDems.

The whole volatility of the electorate and collision between Brexit ideologies and usual party ideologies mean that this is not going to be a predictable election though, and likely throw up some very anomalous local results.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 24, 2019, 09:56:21 pm
I realised today, there is an almost total lack of banners, posters, stickers  or flags, for any party; on display around Torquay.

Even my ‘Kipper neighbours, whose cottage usually turns purple around any sort of election (and I was expecting It to turn a light blue) remains drab and unadorned.
(Ironically, that Septu(or possibly Octo)genarian couple, consist of a well spoken fellow and his frail French wife. No British passport)...

There’s no enthusiasm for this election.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 24, 2019, 10:16:50 pm
I had a bit of a crisis about this election this morning. I think the best case scenario is a hung parliament, most likely a small improved Tory majority and the worst case a thumping majority. Either way I find the whole thing profoundly depressing;

Up to this point I completely agree with you. Before 2016 did all these people really wake up every morning and think "I can't believe we're still in the EU, I'm really annoyed"? I despair that people place that as higher than economic prosperity
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 24, 2019, 10:19:26 pm
I realised today, there is an almost total lack of banners, posters, stickers  or flags, for any party; on display around Torquay.

Even my ‘Kipper neighbours, whose cottage usually turns purple around any sort of election (and I was expecting It to turn a light blue) remains drab and unadorned.
(Ironically, that Septu(or possibly Octo)genarian couple, consist of a well spoken fellow and his frail French wife. No British passport)...

There’s no enthusiasm for this election.

I don't know, all the activists are probably busy sharing memes and fake fact checking sites instead
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 25, 2019, 11:09:55 am
What they can’t predict is who will be motivated to get out and vote. We could also go into who owns the main polling companies that are published and quoted by MSM too and question their impartiality.  In short don’t trust the polls too much.

So what exactly are the incentives involved for the polling companies to produce inaccurate results? Do they get more clients from being wrong? And what exactly are the mechanisms - do they employ good statisticians and then pay them to fiddle the figures? Where does the cheat occur and why has no one blown the whistle yet?

Or I could wield Occam's Razor and conclude that the average Corbyn Labour activist is paranoid and enjoys denying reality.

I certainly don't think the main polsters have dishonest aims. The media, on interpreting what the polls indicate, sure do at times though, and Labour always bear the brunt of that.

An old 2017 BBC article blames polsters overcompensating for the errors of the previous election.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40265714

I think the current polls are likely inaccurate in overstating the tory lead due to the complexity of key local marginal seats and due to the decision of the Brexit party: as they didn't stand against tories most safe tory seats will now gain bigger majorities.... but the tories need to win in around 40 Labour marginals with Brexit standing. Other good news for Labour is young votor registration seems to be higher again this time (and polls always have larger error bars for the youth vote as its harder to get ordinary non aligned young people to respond).

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/31/surge-young-people-registering-to-vote-general-election
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 25, 2019, 11:59:26 am
Pro Boris BBC editing?!

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/bbc-caught-up-in-another-editing-scandal/24/11/
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on November 25, 2019, 12:53:17 pm
Can we can it with the BBC bashing? As other have noted both Labour and Conservative supporters think it’s biased in the other direction which suggests relative impartiality.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 25, 2019, 01:27:18 pm
Can we can it with the BBC bashing? As other have noted both Labour and Conservative supporters think it’s biased in the other direction which suggests relative impartiality.

I totally agree. It's also fundamentally highly unlikely to have any grain of truth. News is repeated, re edited and re reported any numbers to times a day. Stuff like this is always just going to be someone in an editing room trying to do their job and making a minor slip up. If anyone really thinks there is a vast corporate conspiracy, which strongarms every editing meeting in the BBC in London, Salford and across their global news network, they might want to consider how that might be accomplished, how all those staff are indoctrinated, and then how likely that is really.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 25, 2019, 02:30:12 pm
 :alky:
Can we can it with the BBC bashing? As other have noted both Labour and Conservative supporters think it’s biased in the other direction which suggests relative impartiality.

I totally agree. It's also fundamentally highly unlikely to have any grain of truth. News is repeated, re edited and re reported any numbers to times a day. Stuff like this is always just going to be someone in an editing room trying to do their job and making a minor slip up. If anyone really thinks there is a vast corporate conspiracy, which strongarms every editing meeting in the BBC in London, Salford and across their global news network, they might want to consider how that might be accomplished, how all those staff are indoctrinated, and then how likely that is really.

Many journalists have pretty open about how bias comes into media. As a centrist I care very much that Boris gets an easy ride on the BBC time and time again. If someone lies, as Boris does all the time,  good  journalists should always call it out. If someone has sane evidence based opinion, they don't need a tin hat nutter to speak for the other side ' in balance' as the BBC have been guilty of in the past on Climate change and other discussions. I think the BBC is the best state broadcaster in the world but it doesn't stay that way by dismissing real evidence of problems as just tit for tat in political campaigning.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 25, 2019, 08:58:54 pm
I think the BBC is fair game here Tim. Pretty much what Offwidth said. It’s what the BBC don’t do that other national news channels do... read how sky vs bbc called out the Tory twitter title scam - and today the phoney 50k nurses story.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on November 25, 2019, 09:16:45 pm
I’m sure there are counter examples of where they have given Corbyn and allies an easy time etc. that I’m not going to try and dig out. The point I was trying to make is that they are there or thereabouts in terms of neutrality on political stories (as far as I can tell) and when Labour activists complain about their coverage it just feels like they are lining the BBC up for the blame when Labour don’t win.

They got climate science balance wrong and have since changed their stance on this, giving Nigel Lawson a lot more spare time!

Maybe you could have a journalism bias thread for these sort of reports?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Duma on November 25, 2019, 10:00:14 pm
I’m sure there are counter examples of where they have given Corbyn and allies an easy time etc. that I’m not going to try and dig out.


What an unmitigated crock of shit
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nigel on November 25, 2019, 10:06:37 pm
I’m sure there are counter examples of where they have given Corbyn and allies an easy time etc. that I’m not going to try and dig out.


What an unmitigated crock of shit

Agreed. Citation needed! Good luck
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on November 25, 2019, 10:16:04 pm
Those sort of articles would lurk in the bits of the internet I’d rather not visit!  ;D

So you don’t think conversations similar to these but in mirror image are happening on majority brexit supporting, right leaning parts of the internet? Or are they just wrong about perceived BBC bias in favour of Labour, whereas ‘we’ (as a site) are correct regarding bias in favour of Tories?

I’m genuinely interested as I don’t watch the news.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 25, 2019, 10:20:08 pm
It's not hard to find. Just type "BBC left wing bias" into Google. Links from the first page of results are below. Plenty more to go at in the other 2m results, I'm sure.
I'm not saying that these articles are right or written by people that I like, but the right have been complaining about BBC bias against them for decades.

Quote
Thatcher later said: "I have fought three elections against the BBC and don't want to fight another against it."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/john-humphrys-radio-4-retires-bbc-bias-left-wing-liberal-today-programme-a9114711.html

Quote from: From an article in The House (Parliament's magazine)
In the early afternoon of Sunday 12 May 2019, Nigel Farage, still feeling agitated, went on Twitter. “We are not just fighting the political class, but the BBC too,” he told his more than 1.3 million followers. Earlier, he had called the BBC the “enemy”.

https://biasedbbc.org/quotes-of-shame/

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8772961/bbc-spreading-fake-news/

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/08/02/the-bbc-is-failing-in-its-obligation-to-be-fair/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7716685/BBC-faces-bias-row-Boris-Johnson-confronted-hostile-audience-Question-Time.html

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1144039/jeremy-hunt-bbc-bias-tory-hustings-birmingham-boris-johnson

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: abarro81 on November 25, 2019, 10:22:37 pm
Is part of the issue that we lump the whole BBC together? So Today might be quite neutral, QT producers may have a penchant for left-wing heavy audiences and the editor of the 1pm news clearly is a hardcore Tory or a dumbass..?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nigel on November 25, 2019, 10:25:23 pm
Check out the guardian headline story right now. For historical purposes, this is it:

BBC admits 'mistake' in editing out laughter at Johnson in TV debate

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/nov/25/bbc-admits-mistake-in-editing-out-laughter-at-johnson-in-tv-debate?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard (https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/nov/25/bbc-admits-mistake-in-editing-out-laughter-at-johnson-in-tv-debate?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 26, 2019, 06:31:17 am
A thoughtful article on Labour grassroots campaigning...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/26/on-the-doorstep-labour-faces-the-question-who-do-you-speak-for
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 26, 2019, 08:22:56 am
I’ve been off the media wagon for a day or so.

Chief Rabbi’s done Corbyn a solid, hasn’t he?

That is to say, he’s shoved a large, solid (and quite spiky) dildo, up Labour’s rectum.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 26, 2019, 09:47:04 am
Nothing new there:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/03/chief-rabbi-has-grave-concerns-jeremy-corbyns-handling-anti/

As a regular critic of the way Labour have handled antisemitism I see this latest intervention as several steps too far. The tories are much dirtier in their history of racism (including the odd anti-semite) and in recent times have been even worse than Labour in the extent of racism and in the failure to tackle it.  Church leaders should call out all racism and he should have at least criticised the tories as well.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on November 26, 2019, 11:03:18 am
Are we back to "our racists aren't as bad as the other lot's racists" again?

Not really a good look is it?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 26, 2019, 01:07:19 pm
It is pertinent that the Tories are almost certainly more institutionally racist than Labour. Baroness Warsi was slating her own party on this issue a matter of weeks ago. Stories about Tory racism don't seem to gain the same traction as stories of Labour racism - simply because they are less interesting.
"The Conservative party is institutionally racist? Well, yeah, duh! Labour? Aren't they supposed to be avowedly anti-racist?"
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on November 26, 2019, 01:20:39 pm

As a regular critic of the way Labour have handled antisemitism I see this latest intervention as several steps too far.

How confident are you in telling the Chief Rabbi whether his anxieties are acceptable Offwidth? Are you sure you’ve called that right?High-handedness in knowing better is the key characteristic of the attitudes expressed by Chris Williamson, Corbyn and the broader leadership.

Quote
Church leaders should call out all racism and he should have at least criticised the tories as well.

I don’t disagree with the seriousness of the problem in the Tory Party, but the Chief Rabbi represents the Jewish community and Welby is expressing his agreement- all perfectly correct.


Guardian and BBC write-ups below:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50552068

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/nov/26/justin-welby-chief-rabbi-labour-antisemitism
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 26, 2019, 01:50:26 pm
I said this earlier, but again...

The Tory philosophy incorporates the racist and xenophobic extremes, we all know that, they know that, they just don’t acknowledge it or at most pay lip service to fixing “the problem”. They know full well that this will only put off a few on the left of the party and people that wouldn’t vote Tory anyway.

Labour cannot be the same. By positioning itself as the antithesis of the Tory ideal, it must gather into it’s fold all the minorities alienated by the right. Therefore, fairly or not, it will be held to a higher standard by progressives and subject to charges of hypocrisy from the right.

The right is the right. Nice is not really in their lexicon. It’s not meant to be, individual responsibility is the expected standard and “Freezzzzpppeeeachh” the mask to allow bigotry (after all, they’re just going to say that it was all just “playing devil’s advocate” if they get called out).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 26, 2019, 01:50:30 pm

As a regular critic of the way Labour have handled antisemitism I see this latest intervention as several steps too far.

How confident are you in telling the Chief Rabbi whether his anxieties are acceptable Offwidth? Are you sure you’ve called that right?High-handedness in knowing better is the key characteristic of the attitudes expressed by Chris Williamson, Corbyn and the broader leadership.

Quote
Church leaders should call out all racism and he should have at least criticised the tories as well.

I don’t disagree with the seriousness of the problem in the Tory Party, but the Chief Rabbi represents the Jewish community and Welby is expressing his agreement- all perfectly correct.


Guardian and BBC write-ups below:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50552068

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/nov/26/justin-welby-chief-rabbi-labour-antisemitism

I don't think he's gone too far. He hasn't actually urged people not to vote Labour explicitly.
It is a fact, that if Labour really had wanted to deal with this, they could have done. The example of kicking Mandleson straight out for saying he'd vote LD, but procrastinating endlessly about alleged anti-Semitism, the lack of transparency in their processes, the endless 'slip ups' or 'mistakes' of which a few would have been, but it has to be said that after a point you have to wonder.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 26, 2019, 02:01:31 pm
It's also been widely reported that Heseltine has said that people should vote LD or Independent MP, it's remarkable that several former PMs have explicitly said that the party they used to lead is unfit to govern: Major, Brown, Blair.... May will never say anything now, but I'm pretty sure she's not too happy about Johnson's character. A senior judge was interviewed on five live today by Emma Barnett saying that he had grave concern about Johnson's personal integrity and propensity for risk taking.

None of which fills you with hope does it? Rachel Sylvester, normally quite supportive of the conservatives writes today that a minority Labour administration would be a good outcome as none of the bonkers policies would get through as they'd be moderated by other parties, whereas a Conservative majority basically means hard Brexit or no deal.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on November 26, 2019, 03:57:20 pm
It is a fact, that if Labour really had wanted to deal with this, they could have done. The example of kicking Mandleson straight out for saying he'd vote LD, but procrastinating endlessly about alleged anti-Semitism, the lack of transparency in their processes, the endless 'slip ups' or 'mistakes' of which a few would have been, but it has to be said that after a point you have to wonder.

Exactly. Huge numbers of cases drift through unresolved months after beginning, yet Campbell was turfed out in a few hours on a Sunday afternoon.

Amazing what can be done when you want to.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Somebody's Fool on November 26, 2019, 04:19:22 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2005/feb/11/advertising.politics (https://www.theguardian.com/media/2005/feb/11/advertising.politics)

Evidence of the Labour leadership being anti-Semitic.

Although I don’t remember the Chief Rabbi piping up at the time.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: cowboyhat on November 26, 2019, 04:27:59 pm
Check out the guardian headline story right now. For historical purposes, this is it:

BBC admits 'mistake' in editing out laughter at Johnson in TV debate

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/nov/25/bbc-admits-mistake-in-editing-out-laughter-at-johnson-in-tv-debate?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard (https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/nov/25/bbc-admits-mistake-in-editing-out-laughter-at-johnson-in-tv-debate?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard)

Playing devils advocate here I sympathise with this; having had to cut several conference speeches/manifesto launches/tv debates down to three or four mins for a bulletin thats going out almost as said speech ends I can see how this would happen. We have however usually opted to leave in that sort of flavour because they not only present the truth but simply make the VT more interesting.

Certainly the idea that a nefarious agenda is behind it is nonsense. There will be a programme editor stressing about an over long live; you have to cut 30 seconds out two mins before the VT is due to air etc.

Whats interesting is their big apology, and that it was for a LTN bully the following day. I expect that is just someone being lazy and recutting something already on the server. I reckon the beeb come in for greater scrutiny than others over this sort of craft based infringement.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: cowboyhat on November 26, 2019, 04:35:23 pm
Also, apologies for not back reading the entire thread but;

Anyone else still and always living in a very safe seat?

I always have. And, its Labour. Admittedly I'm no judith chalmers but since my first in '97 I have always lived in a safe Labour seat.

Which tends to take the wind out of my enthusiasm for the whole endeavour. I will vote yes to any electoral reform.



Heard Alistair Campbell saying he will campaign for LD.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: cowboyhat on November 26, 2019, 04:40:34 pm
Can we can it with the BBC bashing? As other have noted both Labour and Conservative supporters think it’s biased in the other direction which suggests relative impartiality.

I totally agree. It's also fundamentally highly unlikely to have any grain of truth. News is repeated, re edited and re reported any numbers to times a day. Stuff like this is always just going to be someone in an editing room trying to do their job and making a minor slip up. If anyone really thinks there is a vast corporate conspiracy, which strongarms every editing meeting in the BBC in London, Salford and across their global news network, they might want to consider how that might be accomplished, how all those staff are indoctrinated, and then how likely that is really.

oh shit sorry Toby, maybe I should reread back after all to at least avoid being boring.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on November 26, 2019, 04:43:23 pm
You do speak from a position of authority on the news editing issues so it’s great to hear your POV.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 26, 2019, 04:48:34 pm

How confident are you in telling the Chief Rabbi whether his anxieties are acceptable Offwidth? Are you sure you’ve called that right?High-handedness in knowing better is the key characteristic of the attitudes expressed by Chris Williamson, Corbyn and the broader leadership.

Church leaders should call out all racism and he should have at least criticised the tories as well.


I don’t disagree with the seriousness of the problem in the Tory Party, but the Chief Rabbi represents the Jewish community and Welby is expressing his agreement- all perfectly correct.


I'm very confident. He said "When 12 December arrives, I ask every person to vote with their conscience. Be in no doubt, the very soul of our nation is at stake." This is well beyond acceptable to me and dangerously biased, as such arguments apply to both main parties. I believe nearly every Labour MP is not antisemitic and most seem to have tried to pressure their leader to improve processes.

I'm a critic of the Labour party on the subject and, as Matt says, I expect better from them than I expect from the tories. However in many ways what he said was worse than don't vote Labour (which is rhetorical dishonesty in itself, when he says he is not telling people how to vote... as a religious leader, saying such things, of course he is), and given the efforts of most of the PLP to get Corbyn to improve his and the party response, is beyond destructively blunt for them (especially long standing MP campaigners against antisemitism who publicly criticised Corbyn and the party). Other Jewish groups gave exceptions of exemplary MPs, in their views on the election, whilst expressing dismay at the party response, process and Corbyn's leadership.

On the subject of comparing racism, my prime line is any is too much and both main parties (structures, leaders and processes) should be castigated, even though the tories are far worse. However the MPs and party members who consistently fight racism and speak out publicly against party failures should be spared any criticism.

Welby backing the story, and not being more nuanced, is also very unfortunate in my view.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 26, 2019, 05:26:57 pm
Deepsoup on t'other channel linked a moderate Jewish blogger who feels even more strongly on the subject.than I do.

https://www.patheos.com/blogs/writingfromtheedge/2019/11/as-a-british-jew-im-not-fearful-of-a-corbyn-government-but-im-horrified-at-how-antisemitism-is-being-used-against-him/
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: andy popp on November 26, 2019, 05:46:32 pm
Anyone else still and always living in a very safe seat?

I always have. And, its Labour. Admittedly I'm no judith chalmers but since my first in '97 I have always lived in a safe Labour seat.

Which tends to take the wind out of my enthusiasm for the whole endeavour. I will vote yes to any electoral reform.

Yes, extremely safe, increasingly so over recent elections, and also Labour. Or I would do if I'd got round to registering. I feel guilty for not voting, and I typically vote Labour, but it really will make zero difference in this instance. I also dislike the specific MP for a variety of reasons (e.g. he voted against marriage equality, amongst other decisions I find hard to accept).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on November 26, 2019, 07:46:46 pm
Also, apologies for not back reading the entire thread but;

Anyone else still and always living in a very safe seat?


I'm in Batley and Spen - so Jo Cox's seat. Should be a solid Labour hold for Tracy Brabin (nearly 10k majority with c.30k over the Tories' c.20k in second place), but given the conversations you overhear in the supermarket / pub / on the school run I wouldn't hold my breath.

I have a horrible feeling this is exactly one of the places that will end up subject so an unpleasant [cliche klaxon] political earthquake in December.




Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Somebody's Fool on November 26, 2019, 07:51:35 pm
You do speak from a position of authority on the news editing issues so it’s great to hear your POV.

#pestonspoodle

Seriously though, it is good to hear from someone on the front line.

Just to play Devil’s advocate again, and genuinely interested to hear your thoughts on it, would the 2016 footage from the cenotaph have been close enough at hand to just slip in by accident?

My contact on the inside reckons it would have come from archive and it would have needed a deliberate diversion to go and get it. Although she works on Countryfile, not news, so could be talking rubbish.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: andy popp on November 26, 2019, 08:09:56 pm
I'm in Batley and Spen - so Jo Cox's seat. Should be a solid Labour hold for Tracy Brabin (nearly 10k majority with c.30k over the Tories' c.20k in second place), but given the conversations you overhear in the supermarket / pub / on the school run I wouldn't hold my breath.

I'm Halton - Derek Twigg; 26,000 majority in 2017, up from 20,000 in 2015 and 15K in 2010.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 26, 2019, 08:20:17 pm
Can we can it with the BBC bashing? As other have noted both Labour and Conservative supporters think it’s biased in the other direction which suggests relative impartiality.

I totally agree. It's also fundamentally highly unlikely to have any grain of truth. News is repeated, re edited and re reported any numbers to times a day. Stuff like this is always just going to be someone in an editing room trying to do their job and making a minor slip up. If anyone really thinks there is a vast corporate conspiracy, which strongarms every editing meeting in the BBC in London, Salford and across their global news network, they might want to consider how that might be accomplished, how all those staff are indoctrinated, and then how likely that is really.

oh shit sorry Toby, maybe I should reread back after all to at least avoid being boring.

No worries! Its good to have that confirmed by someone who does it for a job.

Also  living in a very safe Labour seat. I feel  somewhat disenfranchised as I'll definitely vote either liberal democrat, or green. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on November 26, 2019, 08:39:45 pm
Quote from: Somebody's Fool
Just to play Devil’s advocate again, and genuinely interested to hear your thoughts on it, would the 2016 footage from the cenotaph have been close enough at hand to just slip in by accident?

My contact on the inside reckons it would have come from archive and it would have needed a deliberate diversion to go and get it. Although she works on Countryfile, not news, so could be talking rubbish.

I'm of the very strong opinion that anyone of any political persuasion who attempts political point-scoring from the act of wreath laying on remembrance day is an obnoxious cunt. Strikes me as something Alistair Campbell would have considered fair game at his 'peak' and perhaps Cummings now.
Even if the beeb did intentionally show the 2016 cenotaph footage - my own hunch based on no evidence is they did - why is showing BJ placing a wreath upside down a political issue for some people? To try to show him up by looking stupid and disrespectful? (Does well at that by himself). For one day of smugness and a soon to be forgotten headline?
I honestly couldn't give a shit if the beeb intentionally chose not to show him laying the wreath upside down, if it was (as I suspect) out of a desire to respect the dignity of remembrance day and of not wanting to turn the act of remembering mindless slaughter of millions of young people into yet another excuse for an unseemly flame war between, for lack of a better description, a gaggle of opinionated talking-head cunts.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Somebody's Fool on November 26, 2019, 09:06:38 pm
I don't think the issue is whether people might have criticised Boris for laying his wreath wrong. I think the more important point here is whether or not the BBC have got into the habit of editing footage to paint Boris in a more favourable light.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on November 26, 2019, 10:39:11 pm

I'm very confident. He said "When 12 December arrives, I ask every person to vote with their conscience. Be in no doubt, the very soul of our nation is at stake." This is well beyond acceptable to me and dangerously biased,

Come again?? What is the alternative- voting against our consciences?

When I posted I had not seen the full original text- it's behind a paywall at the Times- but seems mostly reprinted in the times of Israel so I'll link here (https://www.timesofisrael.com/uk-chief-rabbi-what-will-be-the-fate-of-jews-if-labour-poison-comes-to-power/).

I understand your point - the juxtaposition of criticising Corbyn and exhorting voters to consult their consciences clearly means 'reflect on whether a vote for Labour is right in your mind'.  He is entitled to argue for the interests of the religious community he leads- and unfortunately this is what he thinks.

Instead of asking whether he has gone too far for your taste, might it be better to ask what on earth Corbyn's leadership has done to the Labour Party?  How has the biggest force against racism in this country has been reduced to this?

Should Mirvis or Corbyn be in the frame here?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 26, 2019, 11:11:49 pm
... and, unbelievably,  Corbyn still seems very reluctant to see that there is a problem.  See the widely reported interview with Andrew Neil. I don't think that him becoming leader was the cause, likely more the massive influx of new members and rather hastily chosen and poorly vetted candidates in the 2017 election.  But Corbyn should have shown an ounce of contrition,  the interview was excruciating.  I sort of wish he'd stop being so useless and concentrate on laying down the very real concerns that every voter should have about  Johnson's personal integrity, horrendous treatment of women,  history of lying and adultery... it shouldn't be that hard really. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on November 26, 2019, 11:20:26 pm
I’m not anti Labour btw - far, far from it. Pretty dismayed at its current decline however.

I don’t want to spam the forum on a single issue but this article on today’s events and the Jewish community’s perceptions is broad, and balanced, and so worth linking to I think.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/26/british-jews-corbyn-emigrate (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/26/british-jews-corbyn-emigrate)

Digested version: Over-anxious? Maybe. Valid? Certainly.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Stu Littlefair on November 27, 2019, 07:29:07 am
Jonathan - could you say what makes it valid, given that it’s probably over anxious?

The articles from the Jewish community always focus on the perceptions of the Jewish community, but what if those perceptions are unfair?

The article offwidth linked to reflects my own feelings on this issue, but I feel very uncomfortable (as a non-Jew) making these points.

Am I being unfair? Is it enough that feeling amongst British Jews is so high that they have described a Labour government as an “existential threat”? Should that make me take my vote elsewhere, or do I use my own judgment that such an assessment is wildly overblown?

This is genuine internal debate BTW - not rhetoric.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on November 27, 2019, 08:10:17 am
Busy day - I will try to answer when I have time. It’s just my opinion though, I can’t speak for anyone else.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Stu Littlefair on November 27, 2019, 08:45:11 am
Cheers. No rush - genuinely interested to hear your thoughts.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Fiend on November 27, 2019, 09:30:09 am
JR - while you're writing on the subject, whenever it happens - could you give a few examples of actual effective anti-semitism from Corbyn / Labour?? I did google for it a while ago and didn't get much (as a devout agnostic and previously apolitical person) that I fully understood. Given it, along with Corbyn's general "lack of impressiveness" , seems to be the big issue for Labour (compared to the Conservatives where it would seem to be quicker to list the current leadership's very few redeeming qualities), I'd like to be able to put it into context.

I'm thinking stuff like:

Internal policy that would have a detrimental effect on Jews?
Foreign policy that would have an effect on Jews?
Encouragement or incitement of hostility or discrimination towards the Jewish community?
Stances or behaviour that are deliberately offensive towards Jews (this is one I am vaguely aware of when JC was expressing support of a wall mural that was considered anti-Jewish)?

(Yes I am pretty ignorant about this, I'd only really come across the concept of anti-semitism in the context of Israel-Palestine conflict which seems very far away, and with marginal and dismissable imbeciles like holocaust-deniers)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: rich d on November 27, 2019, 10:29:16 am


Anyone else still and always living in a very safe seat?


Yep Rushcliffe in Nottinghamshire has pretty much always been conservative with labour in second and not much of a lib dem showing at the general elections. But that may be because it's had Ken Clarke there. So now no Ken, and Rushcliffe voted fairly heavily to remain.  The new conservative candidate is backing get Brexit done.  There's no green standing here as part of the remain pact, and the lib dem presence has been very visible. High street of west Bridgford every weekend, leaflets and letters addressed to house holders, nothing from the conservatives and only a leaflet from labour. So what was a very safe seat in leafy, affluent subburbs could be interesting.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 27, 2019, 10:45:34 am
From an interesting Guardian article by Raphael Behr today

Johnson’s appeal is weaker with women, and falls away among younger voters. If the latter account for the late surges that have been reported in electoral registration, the demographics of the race could be markedly altered in Labour’s favour. All sides are expecting the race to tighten. Smaller parties are being squeezed. Tory candidates are braced for a shock, straining to hear the echoes of 2017 so as not to be surprised if it happens again.

At some level they seem to know that they are pushing their luck, asking for yet another term of unloved Tory rule, under a famously fallible prime minister. They know that the window of opportunity is small and closing – that Brexit fatigue and dread of Corbyn are carrying them towards the finish line, while an election on other issues against almost any other Labour leader is one they might already have lost.

You see it written on Johnson’s face too, at unguarded moments: the flicker of a guilty smile, the glint of disbelief around the eyes that, yes, he really is getting away with this; the furtive shuffle, like a schoolboy shoplifter, with unearned electoral advantage stuffed down his trousers, sidling past the checkout hoping not to trigger any alarms before polling day.


It is, in a slightly macabre way, going to be quite interesting on December 13th. I'm finding it difficult to retain much hope that it'll be anything but Johnson by default as too many people will feel hes the least worst option.  The only saving grace is conceivably that he'll lose his own seat at the same time,  although there is apparently precedence for someone being PM without having a seat in the commons (bbc)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 27, 2019, 11:13:19 am


Anyone else still and always living in a very safe seat?


Yep Rushcliffe in Nottinghamshire has pretty much always been conservative with labour in second and not much of a lib dem showing at the general elections. But that may be because it's had Ken Clarke there. So now no Ken, and Rushcliffe voted fairly heavily to remain.  The new conservative candidate is backing get Brexit done.  There's no green standing here as part of the remain pact, and the lib dem presence has been very visible. High street of west Bridgford every weekend, leaflets and letters addressed to house holders, nothing from the conservatives and only a leaflet from labour. So what was a very safe seat in leafy, affluent subburbs could be interesting.

My impression was the new Rushcliffe tory candidate was an IT consultant with party loyalty and the more 'getting brexit done' candidate was rejected. I'd be interested to hear what the election fliers say as too much aggresion on brexit might be a problem for them (the local conservative party are dominated by the usual clowns stuck in the deep past). Ken was well liked by his constituents (despite his big faults ... like sitting on a tobacco company board). Without Ken, Oliver and Dominic we would probably already have been fucked by the Boris deal.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 27, 2019, 11:29:42 am

Instead of asking whether he has gone too far for your taste, might it be better to ask what on earth Corbyn's leadership has done to the Labour Party?  How has the biggest force against racism in this country has been reduced to this?

Should Mirvis or Corbyn be in the frame here?

Both. I 've been banging on about Corbyn's failure to deal with antisemitism all year, but now Mirvin distorts in a way that effectively means we likely get an even more racist and probably more anti-semitic party in power, the tories, and along the way damage the prospects of some of the most shining examples of those MPs fighting UK antisemitism (as other jewish groups who criticised Corbyn took care to avoid).... nearly all the hateful personal Jewish slurs I've heard in my life came from the right... the far left were mainly guilty of unfairly blaming jews for things that were the responsibility of a very nasty right wing government in Isreal.

Back on the editing point am I the only one to realise how lame the response from the BBC is. This is their main news edit of  one of their top election events: so saying the change in the news clip was an editing fault is even worse than being too polite or deferential .... as only a moron of an editor under a moronic management would not recognise the audience response was more important in a political sense and had more honesty that the PM's answer. That is why it needs proper investigation... if its a cock up why did it happen and what needs to change.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: seankenny on November 27, 2019, 11:30:18 am
JR - while you're writing on the subject, whenever it happens - could you give a few examples of actual effective anti-semitism from Corbyn / Labour?? I did google for it a while ago and didn't get much (as a devout agnostic and previously apolitical person) that I fully understood. Given it, along with Corbyn's general "lack of impressiveness" , seems to be the big issue for Labour (compared to the Conservatives where it would seem to be quicker to list the current leadership's very few redeeming qualities), I'd like to be able to put it into context.

I'm thinking stuff like:

Internal policy that would have a detrimental effect on Jews?
Foreign policy that would have an effect on Jews?
Encouragement or incitement of hostility or discrimination towards the Jewish community?
Stances or behaviour that are deliberately offensive towards Jews (this is one I am vaguely aware of when JC was expressing support of a wall mural that was considered anti-Jewish)?

(Yes I am pretty ignorant about this, I'd only really come across the concept of anti-semitism in the context of Israel-Palestine conflict which seems very far away, and with marginal and dismissable imbeciles like holocaust-deniers)

Maybe watch the Panorama programme?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0006p8c

Nick Cohen has written a lot about this, here is his latest missive:
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/corbyn-doesnt-care-about-reassuring-british-jews/?fbclid=IwAR2Vc6dy7T03PD6Yr57aft2RjQ8SvJ0lsQNgyHS1iM36Wb47TWZU0bypoH4


You may also have missed this:
Corbyn has also:

• Taken tea on the parliamentary terrace with Raed Salah, who he described as “a very honoured citizen” despite that fact that Salah was charged with inciting anti-Jewish racism and violence in January 2008 in Jerusalem and sentenced to eight months in prison. He was found by a British court judge to have used the “blood libel”, the medieval antisemitic canard that Jews use gentile blood for ritual purposes;

(From: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/13/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership-foreign-policy-antisemitism)

How would you feel about a Tory who had a friendly chat with a KKK member who'd said all blacks were child killers?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 27, 2019, 12:00:14 pm
With all due respect sean we can compare this with the UK state vists of mass murderers from Mugabe to Pinochet. Edward Norton made the point on the J Ross show last night that when he made American X the far right were a tiny minority in the US. The joke that followed was a sequel could be made with the US President.

I'm not forgiving Corbyn but all the increasing links to extremism need calling out. A million muslims being brainwashed in re-education camps. The main theological inspiration and back channel finance for islamic terrorism coming out of a state that is one of our so called greatest allies etc. etc.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: seankenny on November 27, 2019, 12:14:15 pm
Can we compare them? No, I don't think we can. In government, one has to deal with some very unsavoury people. That's part of the job. I personally don't think Mugabe or Pinochet should have received state visits but both occured under the Conservatives if it makes you feel any better (tho obviously I'm accusing you of a subtle form of whataboutery). But still, we have to work with countries we find odious. I've worked for organisations operating under unpleasant regimes - holding one's nose is unpleasant but part of life, and when to stay silent and when to protest is always a judgement call. I totally agree that the west has collectively ignored Saudi Arabia's crimes for far too long, but otoh how would you fancy a bout of early 70s style inflation as the price of calling them out? (Insert whatever revenge of choice Saudi would take if you think I'm over-exagerating for effect here.)

But Jeremy Corbyn wasn't in power. He was a backbench MP free to invite who he wanted into the Commons. He really was not a peacemaker of any sort - that's just a fanboy fantasy. The reality is Corbyn just liked hanging out with violent extremists opposed to the British state and its allies. He chose to laud out and out racists. I mean, consider that time he had taken up paid employment for Iranian TV and got a caller who made anti-semitic remarks. Did Corbyn pull the guy up on those remarks? Why no! He just carried on as if nothing had happened.

Still, he got his mullah money, and could pretend he was initiating a dialogue on human rights or some such contrivance.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 27, 2019, 12:56:36 pm
So, your KKK 'whataboutery' is OK but I'm being naughty?

I simply don't believe in some horrific Saudi revenge, we (the UK, EU and US) chose to ignore them knowing we could apply real pressure for real improvements (not just women being allowed to drive) but we chose not to for political and economic reasons, including the nice earner of arms sales in the billions.

Talking of unsavoury characters,  being on the early UCU NEC I got to watch plenty of strange folk from the SWP, Respect and various other far left factions in action, and their supportive MPs to their right... especially McDonnell. My impression is these activists really believe their shit (they reminded me of evangelistic christians) and from the occasional  antisemitism to terrorist support (mainly Hamas) they think they are doing good. For most it seemed to me to be less an evil plot and more delusion or stupidity (too much 'Peoples Popular Front of Judea' going on for them all to be coordinated). In contrast inviting Mugabe or Pinochet, where back channel diplomacy was possible, and the visits were probably against civil service private advice, isn't delsion or stupidity, it's misuse of power by a PM. Back to Corbyn he simply wouldn't get away with such abuse, even with a Labour majority (as the PLP is way more sensible than him); all his past bad decisions are irrelevant but those of Boris won't be if we give him a majority.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: rich d on November 27, 2019, 01:25:12 pm

[/quote]

My impression was the new Rushcliffe tory candidate was an IT consultant with party loyalty and the more 'getting brexit done' candidate was rejected. I'd be interested to hear what the election fliers say as too much aggresion on brexit might be a problem for them (the local conservative party are dominated by the usual clowns stuck in the deep past). Ken was well liked by his constituents (despite his big faults ... like sitting on a tobacco company board). Without Ken, Oliver and Dominic we would probably already have been fucked by the Boris deal.
[/quote] yep Ruth Edwards, IT - presume she's just suppporting the party line on her myplan bit get brexit done is her first thing listed. https://www.ruthedwards.org.uk/myplan plus she's not from the area but lives in Norfolk, which could be an issue as Ken was often seen in and around the area and probably felt like a local in terms of political beliefs and attitudes. The labour candidate has said she's against Brexit - which could split the remain majority vote here and still mean the conservatives get in. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: IanP on November 27, 2019, 01:32:29 pm

Back on the editing point am I the only one to realise how lame the response from the BBC is. This is their main news edit of  one of their top election events: so saying the change in the news clip was an editing fault is even worse than being too polite or deferential .... as only a moron of an editor under a moronic management would not recognise the audience response was more important in a political sense and had more honesty that the PM's answer. That is why it needs proper investigation... if its a cock up why did it happen and what needs to change.

Arguably some of the coverage of this also misrepresented what had happened giving the impression that the BBC had specifically edited out laughter e.g. "BBC admits 'mistake' in editing out laughter at Johnson in TV debate" from the Guardian.  In fact they had removed the first few seconds of the clip which included the laughter and Johnson faltering over the first couple of words of his answer which he then repeated in the part of the clip played.  A subtle difference maybe but not the same as some heavily doctored 'false news' clip which could have been the impression taken.

More significantly if you want a conspiracy theory this has been much more effective as a potential anti-Tory attempt to get Johnson being laughed at to continue in the news cycle.  Given the full clip was played on the main news the night before what possible significant impact could having a slightly different clip being played on the (I assume) significantly less watched lunchtime news the next day.  Certainly the eventual impact of the different clip was that the original ended up being played many more times across mainstream and social media.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: seankenny on November 27, 2019, 01:37:40 pm
So, your KKK 'whataboutery' is OK but I'm being naughty?

It's not whataboutery, as I'm not sure such a thing has happened. Instead it's an invitation to imagine how one would feel if a political opponent did the same thing, and whether that would be enough for you to consider them a racist or racist sympathiser. I'd feel a Tory doing this would have stepped well over the line, so I have to believe Corbyn did the same.

Simple question: do you think it's different?

I simply don't believe in some horrific Saudi revenge, we (the UK, EU and US) chose to ignore them knowing we could apply real pressure for real improvements (not just women being allowed to drive) but we chose not to for political and economic reasons, including the nice earner of arms sales in the billions.

I broadly agree, tho of course with the proviso that my living isn't dependent upon those arms sales. Saudi should be a pariah state.

Talking of unsavoury characters,  being on the early UCU NEC I got to watch plenty of strange folk from the SWP, Respect and various other far left factions in action, and their supportive MPs to their right... especially McDonnell. My impression is these activists really believe their shit (they reminded me of evangelistic christians) and from the occasional  antisemitism to terrorist support (mainly Hamas) they think they are doing good. For most it seemed to me to be less an evil plot and more delusion or stupidity (too much 'Peoples Popular Front of Judea' going on for them all to be coordinated). In contrast inviting Mugabe or Pinochet, where back channel diplomacy was possible, and the visits were probably against civil service private advice, isn't delsion or stupidity, it's misuse of power by a PM. Back to Corbyn he simply wouldn't get away with such abuse, even with a Labour majority (as the PLP is way more sensible than him); all his past bad decisions are irrelevant but those of Boris won't be if we give him a majority.

I agree - and said I agreed! - that neither Pinochet nor Mugabe should have enjoyed state visits. I suspect you're pursuing this point to avoid the awkward fact that Corbyn chose to be pals with an out-and-out bigot, casually ignores blatant racism when it occurs in front of him, and refuses to accept absolutely ANY responsibility for his own shit. He is either really bigoted or really thick.

Your faith in Labour democracy is touching, but doesn't pass the smell test. My own MP is decent but won't dare say anything about anti-semitism because she fears deselection from the mob. We can all remember the crucial Brexit vote at conference, which used a voting method barely suitable for a meeting in a room above a pub and saw a blatant abuse of power by the general secretary. The far left are a ruthless bunch and moderate Labour MPs have shown themselves to be spineless.

Boris is truly, truly awful, but Labour haven't done much better. So much of this needs to be laid right at the feet of Labour activists, whose self-indulgent decision to stick with Corbyn through thick and thin is a massive part of the problem. A more self-righteous bunch of fools is hard to find, and they have had a disproportionately negative effect on the country.

They'll spend the next few years blaming the rest of us, of course.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 27, 2019, 01:56:16 pm
Well Sean... my MP Chris Leslie, a good chap, ended up leaving Labour partly because of the mob. I've watched the mob and opposed them politically in my trade union (including standing agaisnt them at NEC)  for decades. I know Corbyn did those things, but I don't know his motives... as an outlier MP he had the luxury of 'playing student politics' for decades  before his leadership candidacy and election. His election shows up Labour democracy (his problematic history was well known but ignored by the votors... stupid since as party leader he needed to convince swing votors). Candidate re-selection events also show up Labour democracy (usually well less than 1000 members voting and some ballots triggered by less than 100 votes) yet by far the majprity of the PLP are good and sensible, in great contrast to most tory MPs. That congress problem you describe was shameful.

Not all tories are bad ...up thread I've already pointed out we are only 'where we are' due to the bravery of some tory MPs and ex tory big names (add Major, Hestletine, Clarke, Gauke, Stewart and Hammond to those I already mentioned).

On the smell test ..if I'm starving and something smells but the alternative stinks, I'll eat what smells. Now voter registration has closed, my efforts will be to argue passionately for the best local candidate to beat Boris (a few might still be those rare brave moderate tories in safe seats..... who might stand up to Boris if say he gets a majority by just a few votes ).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 27, 2019, 01:57:25 pm

Boris is truly, truly awful, but Labour haven't done much better. So much of this needs to be laid right at the feet of Labour activists, whose self-indulgent decision to stick with Corbyn through thick and thin is a massive part of the problem.

They'll spend the next few years blaming the rest of us, of course.

I'm concerned about this. It would be really nice to have some more hope of a less problematic left to oppose the rise of regressive nationalism. But I fear that it will continue to look inward, try to blame the media and doubters for its own failing.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 27, 2019, 02:02:32 pm
Hi Ian ....I think its most probably a telling cock up, not a conspiracy. It might show BBC news editorial standards in this case are well below where they should be. The laughter and jeering was arguably the biggest news about Boris in the QT show, not something that gets lost by accident in careful news editing but something that could be removed by accident by a technician  if the news editors are asleep. It could also be deliberate. It needs BBC investigation, not an anodyne excuse.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 27, 2019, 02:07:14 pm

 https://www.ruthedwards.org.uk/myplan plus she's not from the area but lives in Norfolk, which could be an issue as Ken was often seen in and around the area and probably felt like a local in terms of political beliefs and attitudes. The labour candidate has said she's against Brexit - which could split the remain majority vote here and still mean the conservatives get in.

Thanks, I'd missed that .. sad ...but unsurprising,  given what the selection commitee said and what Boris expects... she didn't look like a rabid brexiter from her past profile, as at least one of the others did. Good news for those campigning against her in terms of cutting the majority (she will win).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: spidermonkey09 on November 27, 2019, 07:24:00 pm
If anyone would like to defend the BBC over the unfolding clusterfuck over Johnson not turning up for his Andrew Neil interview, I'm all ears...

I love the BBC for all sorts of reasons, but too often their fuck ups favours the Tories. It's beyond a joke.

Edit: passive aggressive tone not intended! More just incredulous that this has been allowed to even be an issue. They all should have been locked in. Maybe he'll back down but I think it's unlikely.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 27, 2019, 07:39:40 pm
If anyone would like to defend the BBC over the unfolding clusterfuck over Johnson not turning up for his Andrew Neil interview, I'm all ears...

I love the BBC for all sorts of reasons, but too often their fuck ups favours the Tories. It's beyond a joke.

Edit: passive aggressive tone not intended! More just incredulous that this has been allowed to even be an issue. They all should have been locked in. Maybe he'll back down but I think it's unlikely.

Really?

I saw it as Bojo doing a runner/dodging the interview.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: spidermonkey09 on November 27, 2019, 07:49:36 pm
That's definitely the case, but we now have a situation where all the other leaders have been pulled apart by Neil with the resulting negative headlines (deservedly) and the PM is being allowed to dodge it. They all should have been contracted to do them at the same time. An alternative would be an hour of Neil asking questions of an empty chair, which I'd accept as a reasonable solution, but again would be surprised if it happens...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 27, 2019, 09:03:18 pm
Well, yes, it would be nice if they were compelled to a public cross examination of their policies and personalities.

Not sure how you would do that and it seems a little Orwellian for a public broadcaster to be endowed with quasi judicial powers...

Seriously, I know what you mean. Unfortunately, we must hope that the public sees it as an act of cowardice on the part of Bojo.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: cowboyhat on November 27, 2019, 09:38:41 pm

Seriously though, it is good to hear from someone on the front line.

Just to play Devil’s advocate again, and genuinely interested to hear your thoughts on it, would the 2016 footage from the cenotaph have been close enough at hand to just slip in by accident?


Not by accident no, but again we're speculating abut the possible motives etc.

Close at hand; certainly.

Reporter writing script, we all discuss shots, decide to get one of Boris at cenotaph. Producer restores from archive server, its on avid for me two mins later. In searching, the producer might search by date, Boris, Cenotaph, etc. Same at bbc. On our system, the list, top clip might be one thats been used the most before, occurred in more previous VTs for whatever reason, not necessarily most recent. So time constraints would come into it.

How many people are in the room? Is there a lawyer? Has someone prior knowledge of that specific occasion and goes 'no don't use that one'..etc. Or 'do use that its funnier'.

Are they saying, don't use that because we're under great scrutiny about bias atm and it makes Boris look like the tit he is.

Back to time constraints. there is another shot but its shorter and from a shit angle or has a camera wobble in it. Or a rerack. Anyway it doesn't fit the script.

And then, you get to the grown ups. There can be a surprising lack of people asking these questions, the actual editor of the news programme who's name is on the titles. They would be thinking 'don't use that because we're under great scrutiny about bias atm and it makes Boris look like the tit he is'

But have they seen it? I doubt it. And they get themselves into these muddles. So they should obviously be throwing bodies at it, which they have!

I still think the idea of, in this instance, some conspiracy is silly. As someone pointed out, in the end the unedited clip has been seen way more. What have they got Gary Kasparov back there planning out how twitter will interpret their response to the criticism they will receive in five days time?

I can't speak for the beeb at all but I've worked on news for several different broadcasters and the grown-ups and bodies thing unfortunately, but obviously, comes down to budget. On screen errors, ofcom whoopsies; how much do they pay? Is the only person who's seen this ulay before it airs an FOB Australian aged 25 who doesn't know who any of these people are? All these people going, ooh its shocking that the bbc have done this etc have a very inflated view of what is actually involved in making television. Especially at the weekend.


Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: cowboyhat on November 27, 2019, 09:44:15 pm
Interestingly my parents constituency Rother Valley, where I voted in '97, has become a swing seat. A collection of former mining villages, in South Yorkshire, is about to become a Conservative seat!

Here in the west side of hackney however, Diane doesn't look worried.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 27, 2019, 09:52:54 pm
Mr Cowboyhat, I don't know who you are but please could you stop interfering with our conspiracy theories, please? We need reality to fit our worldview, not the other way round. You're a step away from me calling you a Red Tory/class traitor/Tory plant etc etc etc blah blah blah.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on November 27, 2019, 10:23:59 pm
My hunch: part of the cause of the paranoia some Labour supporters feel is that when events appear to favour those in a position of relative power a natural psychological reaction is to feel a touch of the conspiracy-theoryitis, as if the powerful are preying on the powerless; the feeling's more profound than when events appear to favour those in positions of relative weakness. Anyone know if this has any evidence to back it up? 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 27, 2019, 10:53:21 pm
My hunch: part of the cause of the paranoia some Labour supporters feel is that when events appear to favour those in a position of relative power a natural psychological reaction is to feel a touch of the conspiracy-theoryitis, as if the powerful are preying on the powerless; the feeling's more profound than when events appear to favour those in positions of relative weakness. Anyone know if this has any evidence to back it up?

Well, probably, but given the cast of clowns in the current revival of Monty Python’s Flying Circus, that is British politics; I think you can cut them some slack. It’s all pretty unbelievable and anything seems possible. Upto and including Bojo being caught in a Scooby doo moment by Gina Millar, who pulls off his mask to find Putin underneath.
The Cenotaph thing is hardly surprising in it’s controversy, regardless of whether it was deliberate or not. Frankly it’s no different to the traditional “slag the Labour leader off for being too scruffy/wearing the wrong jacket/being there” that the Fail indulge in every year.
(Rumour is Bojo had overdone pre-service drinkies, scuttlebutt from the formers brigade, probably bollocks).
An upside down wreath is hardly disrespectful anyway.
Also, “most viewed” coming top in a search; seems a rather probable explanation for a good many fuckups in all walks of life (especially antivax “research”).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 28, 2019, 08:24:57 am
Just to get todays surreal debate underway, a reminder:

The Truth (https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/honest-discussion)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 28, 2019, 09:49:36 am
My hunch: part of the cause of the paranoia some Labour supporters feel is that when events appear to favour those in a position of relative power a natural psychological reaction is to feel a touch of the conspiracy-theoryitis, as if the powerful are preying on the powerless; the feeling's more profound than when events appear to favour those in positions of relative weakness. Anyone know if this has any evidence to back it up?

I don't know about power differences playing this role,  so much as politicians of questionable character, and their supporters mistrusting and being reluctant to engage with the media in a non confrontational manner. 
Mischaracterisation of criticism and questioning of motives as conspiracy or lies is a criticism that I'd level at Johnson,  Corbyn and Trump. Lightweight populists with a poor ability to make a sound and coherent argument obviously don't like having their flimsy platforms questioned.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 28, 2019, 11:53:44 am
Probably not hugely interesting to most of you, but here’s a summary of the errors in defence claims in party manifestos.
All but SNP are fairly honest and their errors are minor. SNP’s claim seems like a politically motivated lie. The LD proposal is stupid, from a strategic perspective.

 comparison (https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/all-the-incorrect-defence-claims-made-in-party-manifestos/)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on November 28, 2019, 01:04:47 pm
Plaid Cymru's manifesto? Incorrectly stated the number of petrol bombs it would produce..
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 28, 2019, 01:17:07 pm
Plaid Cymru's manifesto? Incorrectly stated the number of petrol bombs it would produce..

I don’t have a holiday home in North Wales, so I don’t pay much attention to the political wing of Meibion Glyndŵr...
😜
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 28, 2019, 04:57:39 pm
If anyone would like to defend the BBC over the unfolding clusterfuck over Johnson not turning up for his Andrew Neil interview, I'm all ears...

I love the BBC for all sorts of reasons, but too often their fuck ups favours the Tories. It's beyond a joke.

Edit: passive aggressive tone not intended! More just incredulous that this has been allowed to even be an issue. They all should have been locked in. Maybe he'll back down but I think it's unlikely.

If the BBC had any courage they would threaten to replace him (not with and empty chair but) with the least sympathetic big name tory they could find.. someone like Hestletine..... who could come on and get asked all the same questions on Boris's behalf.

Meanwhile the latest in the tories scumbag limbo contest (how low can they go):

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/28/revealed-tory-candidates-issued-with-attack-manuals-on-how-to-smear-rivals
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 28, 2019, 06:00:20 pm
Imagine my horror to find that this absolutely hilarious thing was put out by the Conservatives.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cre0in5n-1E&feature=emb_title


Some of the comments on the video are great.

"Did anybody else accidently draft a new trade deal while listening to this?"
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: seankenny on November 28, 2019, 06:51:27 pm
Well Sean... my MP Chris Leslie, a good chap, ended up leaving Labour partly because of the mob. I've watched the mob and opposed them politically in my trade union (including standing agaisnt them at NEC)  for decades.

I don't get this. They're an absolutely rum bunch who you will fight against in your union, but you want to hand them the keys to the kingdom?


I know Corbyn did those things, but I don't know his motives...

Come on, that's so lame. Corbyn hung out with racists, praised racists, happened to be on Facebook pages with racist posts, had a surprising amount of casual racism going on in his life... never seemed to call them out mind... and we're left to ponder the great man's motives as if he was actually interesting.

Having bigots and morons in power makes us fools if we choose to follow them - or to make excuses for them.



That congress problem you describe was shameful.

It was. And we can trust these guys in power?

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Fiend on November 28, 2019, 07:11:32 pm
Thanks for the reply earlier Sean.

The article was semi-useful in explaining the issue although again without many examples.

I also found this useful for the basics on the Pro-Tory Conservative State Media site:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-43893791

Quote
In fact, historically, most Jewish people voted for the Labour Party, when it was supportive of the State of Israel.

But the party's stance on Israel began to change after the 1967 Middle East war - when Palestinians in East Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip came under Israeli occupation.

Traditionally the left wing has spoken up for the rights of oppressed minorities in the UK and around the world - and the Labour Party now aligns itself with the Palestinian cause.

Palestinians want their own state and face some severe restrictions from Israel. Israel says that, in the absence of any peace settlement, these measures are to protect it from Palestinian violence.

By the 1980s, people with strong views on Israel became more prominent within Labour. This contributed to the party developing an association with anti-Zionism, something which had previously been limited to the far-left.

From which I glean that an increasing anti-Zionist stance, which while possibly justifiable and not necessarily problematic in itself, has possibly allowed more hostile anti-Semitic elements to flourish in the party. I never knew foreign policy on Israel/Palestine was such a contentious issue, and perhaps it has been detrimental to the Labour party to have strong alignments on it.

All of which has been vastly overshadowed by Will's boriswave link above, of course.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 28, 2019, 08:10:03 pm
The people I stood against were to the left of Corbyn. I don't regard his motives as that crucial (Im just pointing out none of us know) and as I said, I always felt it was a mistake to make him leader. I'm certainly not handing him any keys... if anything it's a straight jacket, in any minority government... I fully expect him to have at least a 50% chance of standing down in such circumstances. I also expect most of the PLP to continue to be a thorn in his side even if he stays. An uncontrolled  Boris majority vs a controlled Corbyn minority is not a hard choice.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 28, 2019, 10:43:01 pm
I never knew foreign policy on Israel/Palestine was such a contentious issue, and perhaps it has been detrimental to the Labour party to have strong alignments on it.


This is precisely part of my issue with it, why are the left wing obsessed with the oppression of the Palestinians above say, the repression of the Uigas by China,  or Rohingya muslims in Myanmar? Do they have any other real foreign policies? I am certainly not belittling the oppression of Palestinians but this situation seems to be disproportionately important to certain factions of left wing politics.

The UK seems to have renounced foreign policy altogether, the foreign secretary at the moment is so on his brief that hes not sure where Calais is, and hes being sued, standing accused of a corrupt and inappropriate issuing of diplomatic immunity to Anne Sacoolas. Christ knows what hes doing about Iran, Syria,  Saudi Arabia, the Yemen....

The all pervasive time wasting 3 year clusterfuck of arguing about the EU seems to have changed this country into an angrier,  more introverted,  uglier place with seemingly little time for a world outside its walls.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 29, 2019, 07:39:56 am
The think tanks influencing current Conservative policy:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/29/rightwing-thinktank-conservative-boris-johnson-brexit-atlas-network
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 29, 2019, 08:07:44 am
To paraphrase a Facebook post I read this morning:

“Imagine how morally bankrupt a country must be, that the incumbent government for the past decade can cut police numbers by 21000 officers, creating a crime wave and then win re-election by promising 20000 new officers to fight that crime wave...”

I was struck by the fact you could, with minor changes, tweek that paragraph to fit anything from “The NHS” and “A&E staff”, through to “immigration” or “highway maintenance” and absolutely every public service in between.

Why are we even remotely close to a Bojo majority?

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: nai on November 29, 2019, 08:29:29 am

Why are we even remotely close to a Bojo majority?


 :-\

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-british-uk-media-news-bias-tories-labour-a9209026.html?fbclid=IwAR0Ss5y8mn3M7U8c5V1gEMPFAwm5eduqr3ASHoR5_A2g7QBRLaIssTC91AM
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 29, 2019, 08:36:41 am

Why are we even remotely close to a Bojo majority?


 :-\

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-british-uk-media-news-bias-tories-labour-a9209026.html?fbclid=IwAR0Ss5y8mn3M7U8c5V1gEMPFAwm5eduqr3ASHoR5_A2g7QBRLaIssTC91AM

It shouldn’t matter.
It should be obvious and yet...

Humans suck.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 29, 2019, 11:12:56 am
On the BBC topic....

Hmmmm.... (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/bbc-conservatives-facebook-adverts-election-laura-kuenssberg-huw-edwards-brexit-a9225411.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1575018299)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 29, 2019, 12:30:47 pm
A decade of Tory “Tough on crime” rule
A pretty little South Devon resort town, with some of the most expensive real estate in Britain.

Got this text from Mrs OMM, five minutes ago:

 (https://i.ibb.co/5n6tkdf/B2-C2526-F-0-D90-45-CF-A284-F9-A43-B9940-E6.jpg)

At the end of October, the man who murdered her husband, was moved from Cat A to Cat C (open) conditions, after only 10 years of his life sentence. He’d be convicted of assault twice since going inside and the murder was his 64th conviction for violence. The VLO had never heard of anyone going from A to Open, without a stint in B. Her opinion was that it was an overcrowding issue. And her comments on the chaos of the system, are unrepeatable.

Place is falling apart and more Tory shit is not the answer.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 29, 2019, 01:23:41 pm
A decade of Tory “Tough on crime” rule
A pretty little South Devon resort town, with some of the most expensive real estate in Britain.
...
Place is falling apart and more Tory shit is not the answer.

I take your point, and am pretty pissed off about the fact that it's looking far more than likely that the uk, or what remains of it, will have a conservative government for at least the next 5 years and probably more. But I think it's important not to overplay the pretty seaside town- I take it you mean Torquay? It has had significant social and drug problems for quite a long time. Although it has expensive posh bits it's not exactly Salcombe is it? I'm not saying that some government policies aren't responsible for making it worse, but the demise of British seaside towns has been an awful lot longer in the making.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: crzylgs on November 29, 2019, 02:18:28 pm
A little aside from a North Bucks resident.

This seat has always been a Tory stronghold, in has been Labour controlled for two brief spells in the last 120yrs. Interestingly the last Labour MP from 1964-1970 was Robert Maxwell (yes THE Robert Maxwell, of creative accounting media empire and subsequent falling off a boat fame...). In recent years we've been 'represented' by John Bercow who has now been replaced and almost certainly a new Tory will enjoy a relatively safe seat.

For the record I'm a strong remainer. I don't especially enjoy talking politics, but socio-economic-political-integration with our neighbours seems like an incredibly beneficial, sensible and profitable thing to do. I always vote, often a coin toss between Lib Dem or Greens as they are usually the substantially '2nd' placed party and allows me to occasionally grumble about disliking FPTP / 2-party political systems. This year I believe the Greens have stood down as part of their pact with the Lib Dems. I've never been a member of any political party and have no recollection of signing up for any political newsletters etc.

After that back history and info... My main point. I've been receiving an astronomical amount of Lib Dem postal literature. For the last couple of weeks I hardly go two days (and often consecutive days!) without something with Jo Swinson's face plastered all over it, or that of the standing candidate Stephen Dorrell. I've received numerous duplicates of the same couple of letters / pamphlets. Today I got a new letter, from an 'independent' 'Elections Expert' who wasn't telling me who to vote for, but was nicely pointing out a few reasons why a tactical vote for Lib Dems might be a good idea especially if you're pro remain. At the bottom of the letter in the smallest of fine print 'This was sponsored by the Liberal Democrat party...' I found this approach in particular very interesting! Never before have I been so inundated with political post.

The funny thing is they already have my vote. Wonder if I could contact them and tell them to stop sending me so much fluff and save themselves a few Ł?

Has anyone else experienced a similar amount of additional political post? If so are the Lib Dems also the culprits?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 29, 2019, 02:53:46 pm
Yes, also had bags of paper through the door, but from all of them. You have to wonder slightly what the carbon footprint of an election is.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: abarro81 on November 29, 2019, 02:55:18 pm
We've had 2 Lab, 2 Green, 1 LD leaflets IIRC. I think the Green were the same one though - one addressed to me and one to my wife
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 29, 2019, 04:01:58 pm
This probably wont work but if it does...

(https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10157212354222424&set=a.10150157566472424&type=3&eid=ARCPs1nbRWd4mE4Y0Mw7TYdCN4xLFU-EqAhXd-SzCa9LX0Cm1kNoPMQ1fLbPIQZIVzBo1-66uixKeCyx)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 29, 2019, 04:10:15 pm
Nothing.

Not one leaflet or letter.

Hardly any signs up around here. I recall seeing two LD. No Cons that I remember. Usually, in the past, it’s been purple and yellow 🤮 everywhere. Not seen any BP light blue.

No door knockers either.

Kevin Foster’s office, is across the road, not 50 meters, from where I’m typing this now (in the Bunker). Not seen anyone in there, or the lights on, since before the summer.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 29, 2019, 04:26:17 pm
I get handwritten notes from our local Lib Dem’s. Generally polite and without any cocks drawn on them either... disappointingly.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 29, 2019, 04:39:48 pm
Pinocchio.

I didn’t even google it.

If you’re following the news today, you’ll understand the above.

FFS, the Johnsons are arrogant wankers, aren’t they? Worse than me.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 29, 2019, 04:46:17 pm
The Lib Dem’s aren’t hand writing notes, that is one of the tactics, along with misleading bar charts and letters from Dr’s calling you ‘friend’... and today a letter from Mike Smithson ‘polling and elections expert’ with no branding on at all... the small print reads ‘promoted on behalf of the Liberal Democrats’.. (this is really not good form at all, regardless of the content of the letter which is bollocks btw).

Was thinking about this over the last few days.  There is a belief amongst some that if only Labour would reclaim the ‘middle ground’ and have a ‘centrist’ leader, they would smash the election.  Well we already have a party that claims to occupy the middle ground and a leader that claims to be ‘centrist’.  Centrists from both sides of the house have joined.  So if this is what the masses want, the way to win an election, then are we expecting a yellow landslide?  If not, why not because a lot of people seem to think this is the recipe for success, or does it need to be dressed in red to work?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on November 29, 2019, 04:54:22 pm
Yeah for success it needs to be dressed in red; and have a smarmy, charismatic, self-loving, articulate, lying-bastard leader. See the theme here?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 29, 2019, 04:59:23 pm
If not, why not because a lot of people seem to think this is the recipe for success, or does it need to be dressed in red to work?

Because FPTP. Under our current system it needs to come from Labour.

At least on the 13th December I will have yet more proof that Labour cannot win a majority in a GE under Corbyn.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 29, 2019, 05:08:11 pm
Yeah for success it needs to be dressed in red; and have a smarmy, charismatic, self-loving, articulate, lying-bastard leader. See the theme here?
hmmmm sounds like that war criminal the media wheeled out the other day.

Why does it need to come from Labour when it’s already there (all shiny, Swinsony and yellow)?


Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on November 29, 2019, 05:26:23 pm
Because in this GE they're more of a one-issue protest vote than either the tories or labour. Despite the tories claim of being the party of leave, many right-wing 'remainers' will still vote conservative while many left-wing 'leavers' will still vote labour. Relatively few leavers, either right, left or centrist, will vote lib dem. They just don't have the large loyal base of the other two main parties to start with. And it means the lib dems are totally reliant for growth on only the remain-voting proportion of people who'd normally vote labour or conservative, and who are prepared to change their usual choice of party.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 29, 2019, 05:26:38 pm
FPTP.

You can call Blair a war criminal all you want, but when you wake up on the 13th December to a Tory majority government and the ensuing hard Brexit, you should know that Jeremy Corbyn and the members who put him in charge carry a significant portion of the blame.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 29, 2019, 05:36:50 pm
Will, if you get your wish of a ‘centrist’ leader of the LP in the future, what will you expect from ‘lefty’ LP members like me?  Support, acceptance of the democratic processes and decisions of the party, not to constantly undermine and nay say or just to feck off and leave you ‘centrists’ to get on with it?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 29, 2019, 05:38:08 pm
Blair’s a war criminal.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 29, 2019, 05:53:43 pm
Will, if you get your wish of a ‘centrist’ leader of the LP in the future, what will you expect from ‘lefty’ LP members like me?  Support, acceptance of the democratic processes and decisions of the party, not to constantly undermine and nay say or just to feck off and leave you ‘centrists’ to get on with it?

I would hope that the party could return to the broad church that is was, with a focus on winning an election so it could actually enact some of the policies its members voted for.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 29, 2019, 05:56:04 pm
Will, if you get your wish of a ‘centrist’ leader of the LP in the future, what will you expect from ‘lefty’ LP members like me?  Support, acceptance of the democratic processes and decisions of the party, not to constantly undermine and nay say or just to feck off and leave you ‘centrists’ to get on with it?

Yup.


😜

Don’t be daft. Of course not.
The centrist is sick of FPTP. Sick of lurching from left to right and tired of being ignored and trampled on by zealots of primary hues, red or blue.
This is a two party state, with one the lesser (Labour, if you look at number of governments formed since WW2).
Can I just throw that question right back at you, by the way? Should we just shut up and do as our political “betters” instruct? Are all of us animals equal? Or are some animals more equal than others? Because I’m looking from left to right here and I cannot tell the difference between the Pigs and the Men anymore.

Edit:
Shit the bed, Will!
You were almost nice!
Feeling ok?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 29, 2019, 06:12:03 pm
Absolutely don’t shut up! Personally, I’m totally up for things to be challenged, that’s how we learn and change but when it’s match day I would hope that members of the team stick together on the decisions that have been made and have each other’s backs rather than sabotaging their own team. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on November 29, 2019, 06:31:45 pm
I've already sent off my postal vote for Labour. It is the only anti-Conservative measure I can usefully take under FPTP in my constituency.
I'm not sabotaging, I'm lamenting. The campaign is useless: the public made up their minds months ago.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 29, 2019, 06:36:29 pm
I've already sent off my postal vote for Labour. It is the only anti-Conservative measure I can usefully take under FPTP in my constituency.
I'm not sabotaging, I'm lamenting. The campaign is useless: the public made up their minds months ago.

I think many have made up their minds a while back - though not all.

What campaigning will achieve is persuading those people to get off their arses on a cold December day and vote...

That’s where (from my experience) the LP are miles better than other parties (feet in the ground etc..).

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: i.munro on November 29, 2019, 08:07:42 pm
FPTP.

You can call Blair a war criminal all you want, but when you wake up on the 13th December to a Tory majority government and the ensuing hard Brexit, you should know that Jeremy Corbyn and the members who put him in charge carry a significant portion of the blame.

And a significant portion of the blame will lie with the Blair years of triangulation! The trouble with the tactic of winning elections by carefully being only  slightly less awful than the Tories is that, over time, people forget why they should care who wins. So many times I've heard recently "what's the point of voting things were just as bad under your lot".
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: IanP on November 29, 2019, 09:00:51 pm
And a significant portion of the blame will lie with the Blair years of triangulation! The trouble with the tactic of winning elections by carefully being only  slightly less awful than the Tories is that, over time, people forget why they should care who wins. So many times I've heard recently "what's the point of voting things were just as bad under your lot".

As another disenfranchised centrist I would suggest that a Momentum driven Corbyn Labour party looks to be delivering what is likely to be the worst Tory government ever!  I'll vote anti-Tory which will mean Labour in my constituency but that won't stop me being furious with what the Labour has done if we wake up to a big Johnson majority on the 13th.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 29, 2019, 09:11:35 pm
Absolutely don’t shut up! Personally, I’m totally up for things to be challenged, that’s how we learn and change but when it’s match day I would hope that members of the team stick together on the decisions that have been made and have each other’s backs rather than sabotaging their own team.

Look.

You know that I think you are a dreamer (as are many in the LP) and that your dreams are totally impractical in a world where ~50% of the population are Chauvinistic, Homophobic, Racist, Xenophobic (on a sliding scale, from slightly to full on) who would side with any right wing party; without thinking much beyond their individual peeves.

That doesn’t mean I don’t like what you’re dreaming. Most of it, anyway.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Somebody's Fool on November 29, 2019, 10:53:09 pm
Surely these so called ‘centrists’ should be pleased that Labour’s policies would leave the U.K public spending as percentage of GDP slap bang in the middle of European ranking?

Instead they seem to spend their time patronising/shouting at people who support Labour’s outstanding policy platform and muttering darkly about the ‘hard left.’






Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 29, 2019, 10:56:04 pm
if we wake up to a big Johnson majority on the 13th.

If? I think that's being pretty optimistic at this point. A smug, twice sacked for lying racist gurning as he avoids any meaningful scrutiny on his way to an inevitable majority for the next five years, leaving an inadequate at best opposition wallowing in self analysis for several of those.

I think Matt is right, the Labour left might have some lovely ideas but nowhere near enough people will vote for them.
For example Labour are the only party with any sort of workable proposal for social care which is hugely important. Very, very sadly millions of people seem to think that's it's far more important to leave the EU than to have a workable plan for who's going to feed them, put them to bed and wipe their ass when they can't themselves, and who's going to pay for it. So they'll vote for a man like Johnson who only cares about himself but knows how to tell people what they want to hear on that day.  Perhaps the time will come when their priorities will change, but it'll be too late.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 30, 2019, 06:27:16 am
Surely these so called ‘centrists’ should be pleased that Labour’s policies would leave the U.K public spending as percentage of GDP slap bang in the middle of European ranking?

Instead they seem to spend their time patronising/shouting at people who support Labour’s outstanding policy platform and muttering darkly about the ‘hard left.’

That is the exact reason Labour will lose.
Because insulting the people you need to win over, has ever been a winning tactic...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on November 30, 2019, 07:01:46 am
This remains a completely open election in terms of Boris vs hung Parliament. The Telegraph was worried on its headlines on Wednesday, as it can see how constituency battles never had as little connection with overall polls. If Boris wins it's because well educated centrists will have spent too much time naval gazing and regarded Corbyn as just as big a risk as Boris (complete nonsense in my view, especially so given the poll numbers) when they should be focussing on whats best for their constituency and the country. The hard left are a problem for me too but any threat from them is tiny compared to the problems with Boris and his pals. Anyone who can see what is coming from this liar PM and his liars' manifesto pushing our country towards a cliff edge, based on popularist ideology, with a real and present danger, should be working hard to get rid of this PM and shut down all this irrelevant scaremongering about JC (who's ideology in comparison is almost irrelevant, as he simply won't have control, even in the near miracle of a Labour majority as his MPs will be broadly sensible). Labour getting flak for insulting the population is laughable in the face of the entitled  (pinocchio) attitude of the Johnsons, who can for sure spell the lies that will fuck the UK. We only have this chance thanks to the best of the tory party MPs who sacrificed their immediate career to block the madness. How centrist do we need to be to get rid of Boris?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 30, 2019, 01:30:07 pm
Offwidth, I don't really disagree with what you say here, but I feel it's not so much a case of just being more centrist, it's how the arguments have been made. The class war - never-kiss-a-tory contingent just put too many people off.

Labour are not the only party guilty of this, I was probably going to vote green, but Jonathan Bartley lost me really with his opposition to all hunting for game animals and talking about all eating meat as being distasteful. In many ways Labour and Green seem to have great ideas, but for me rather neutered by dogma
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: seankenny on November 30, 2019, 04:40:49 pm
Will, if you get your wish of a ‘centrist’ leader of the LP in the future, what will you expect from ‘lefty’ LP members like me?  Support, acceptance of the democratic processes and decisions of the party, not to constantly undermine and nay say or just to feck off and leave you ‘centrists’ to get on with it?

Well, your man Corbs voted against the Party scores of times - maybe hundreds, I can't be arsed to check - and I was of the opinion that siding with the Tories against Labour was "undermining" them. But that's acceptable, right?

As for lefty members... let's just take a look at what your four years of dominance have given us. You guys have voted to saddle Labour with its most disliked leader EVER, a man who's already lost one election and is on track to lose another. You've put in place a faction riddled with racism, with a leader who can't apologise for racism, a man whose intransigence has led to a formal investigation against the party you claim to support. You've made no effort to persuade Conservative voters to vote Labour, and in fact it's even worse: many Labour people like me (voted for the party in every election since 1992) have been told to fuck off simply because we have very grave concerns about the man you revere. The leadership have promoted incompetents, preferring loyalty and orthodoxy of opinion over ability. As a political movement, you've engaged in infantile populism, you've refused to tell the truth to the Britsh people about what a stupid idea Brexit is, and you've produced a fantasy manifesto that is neither credible nor serious (I am very much for increasing public spending, before you tell me to FOAJTT).

Labour under Corbyn has been a weak opposition and is incapable of removing one of the worst governments we've seens in many, many decades. Even your own partisans, such as Offwidth here, are reduced to begging for support under the claim that your leader will be defenestrated.

A little bit of quiet from your faction might be a good idea.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 30, 2019, 05:18:40 pm
Will, if you get your wish of a ‘centrist’ leader of the LP in the future, what will you expect from ‘lefty’ LP members like me?  Support, acceptance of the democratic processes and decisions of the party, not to constantly undermine and nay say or just to feck off and leave you ‘centrists’ to get on with it?

Well, your man Corbs voted against the Party scores of times - maybe hundreds, I can't be arsed to check - and I was of the opinion that siding with the Tories against Labour was "undermining" them. But that's acceptable, right?

As for lefty members... let's just take a look at what your four years of dominance have given us. You guys have voted to saddle Labour with its most disliked leader EVER, a man who's already lost one election and is on track to lose another. You've put in place a faction riddled with racism, with a leader who can't apologise for racism, a man whose intransigence has led to a formal investigation against the party you claim to support. You've made no effort to persuade Conservative voters to vote Labour, and in fact it's even worse: many Labour people like me (voted for the party in every election since 1992) have been told to fuck off simply because we have very grave concerns about the man you revere. The leadership have promoted incompetents, preferring loyalty and orthodoxy of opinion over ability. As a political movement, you've engaged in infantile populism, you've refused to tell the truth to the Britsh people about what a stupid idea Brexit is, and you've produced a fantasy manifesto that is neither credible nor serious (I am very much for increasing public spending, before you tell me to FOAJTT).

Labour under Corbyn has been a weak opposition and is incapable of removing one of the worst governments we've seens in many, many decades. Even your own partisans, such as Offwidth here, are reduced to begging for support under the claim that your leader will be defenestrated.

A little bit of quiet from your faction might be a good idea.

A lot of sense in Paragraph 2 there Sean...

However rose tinted you may be about JC - he’s missed so many open goals...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 30, 2019, 05:36:44 pm
Unfortunately, way too late for quiet.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 30, 2019, 05:58:06 pm
 :clap2:

and I laughed and laughed and laughed (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-matt-hancock-boo-video-haverhill-nurses-antisemitism-a9227296.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1575127776)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on November 30, 2019, 09:15:09 pm
I notice the polls are swinging more than Boris’ belly when he’s “funding” Jennifer Arcuri’s “business”...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on November 30, 2019, 09:49:45 pm
I was amused by reports that Raab might lose his 20k majority in Esher...

Wife’s Aunty was over today (former Labour MP) - didn’t have much positive to say about anything political....
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on November 30, 2019, 10:59:12 pm
 Apparently some people want a broad church, so long as the socialists sit at the back and keep their mouths shut. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on November 30, 2019, 11:24:59 pm
Apparently some people want a broad church, so long as the socialists sit at the back and keep their mouths shut.

When Corbyn did sit at the back he most certainly did not keep his mouth shut, and a succession of labour leaders didn't kick him out of the party for disagreed with them, and voted against them.
And when the likes of Emily Thornberry has the temerity to say that they are now all for remain, they are instantly sidelined.

In any case, I really don't believe that Labour has any chance of doing at all well in the election, and no end of people say that they can't vote for them because of Corbyn. Even prominent left wing publications seem to be having serious doubts about him.

They really should be at the least on their way to forming a coalition government but there seems to be <1% chance of even that now. Even against blundering incompetency of the ilk of Hancock, Raab, Rees Mogg...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on December 01, 2019, 09:18:35 am
I know in this election most people won’t be voting this way, but always interesting to see which policies float your boat when compared side by side https://voteforpolicies.org.uk/
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 01, 2019, 09:23:49 am
A plane just flew over our house in the Aire Valley towing a banner which said, "Remainers are kaput" with a hammer and sickle next to it.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 01, 2019, 09:39:58 am
A plane just flew over our house in the Aire Valley towing a banner which said, "Remainers are kaput" with a hammer and sickle next to it.

And we’d though Jacob ReesMogg was under Tory house arrest :)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: nai on December 01, 2019, 09:51:29 am
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/29/opinion/britain-election-disinformation-johnson.html
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 01, 2019, 10:43:55 am
Apparently some people want a broad church, so long as the socialists sit at the back and keep their mouths shut.

A clear majority of the party would describe themselves as socialists, including the PLP, and nearly all of  the PLP are to the right of Corbyn. I'd say the key problem here is the other way round... Momentum regarding much of the PLP as not being socialist enough... and abusing party policy to try to shrink the breadth of that church. If you can't convince swing votors to vote for you, you will never become a majority government.

What we face right now is bigger than party politics as brexit could be horrendous with such an out of control, dishonest  and dangerous government... I have no idea what Boris and co will do if, as likely, it all turns to custard but it certainly wont be anything good... hard right liars in government in troubled times don't have a great record.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: SamT on December 01, 2019, 10:52:05 am
https://news.sky.com/story/corbyn-and-johnson-in-row-over-early-release-of-london-bridge-killer-11875070

 :no:

Why can the man not just think "what are the headlines going to say" before opening his trap.  I have read the full context of what he 'actually' says,

Quote
He added: "There has to be an examination of what goes on in the prison, because prisons ought to be a place where people are put away because of major serious offences but also a place where rehabilitation takes place."

but every voter, queuing to pay for their petrol today, will be idly scanning the headlines on the news paper rack and this is what they'll read.

(clever innit, the papers dont actually need people to buy the papers to get their message across, and I thought subliminal advertising was illegal).

interestingly,if you read further..

Quote
he father of Jack Merritt, the 25-year-old who was killed in Friday's attack, has urged politicians not to enforce "draconian" sentences.

According to CambridgeshireLive, David Merritt said: "My son, Jack, who was killed in this attack, would not wish his death to be used as the pretext for more draconian sentences or for detaining people unnecessarily.

Which is what JC was probably picking up on.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 01, 2019, 11:01:09 am

I don't really disagree with what you say either but I was pointing out centrists have most influence and determine all UK elections, and I see too much arguing shades of grey and various colours when I think we face a stark black and white decision, with Boris and his oven ready brexit (as much because of what he might do when it goes wrong as the event itself)  This is not helpful, and the clock is ticking. Its a risk-consequence argument. Both leaders if they had all their MPs behind them would likely cause much damage (and comparative estimates would depend on observer political views), but the risk of a Corbyn madness after this election is 0% and that of a Boris madness about 50%.

The same argument applies to climate change...middle Britian is obsessed with distracting itself with individual and random shit, when we need worldwide political change really soon, as the latest data seems to show we are in more trouble than we thought. The green movement is way bigger than the Green party, and voting Green (in safe seats) helps, and doesn't put Jonathan Bartley in power. As support grows for green policy (it will,  but hopefully not too late)  it's better to take the bus driver with the odd view,  who is there, than wait however long  for a new driver on a necessary journey.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 01, 2019, 11:34:34 am
But this is the problem.
Currently Labour don’t oppose the Tories.
They oppose everybody and everything from the PLP right. They represent a small fringe. End of.
So the vast majority of those who wish to not vote Tory, have no realistic place to go, with leaping out of the frying pan into a loony left fire.
Sorry Simon, I like you, personally, but I don’t want a socialist paradise; because I have first hand experience of want that actually means.
Humans don’t do what they’re supposed to, when idealists try and impose they’re dreams on reality. All those Tory voters, for instance, are not just going to buckle under and toe the party line.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: seankenny on December 01, 2019, 11:50:36 am
Apparently some people want a broad church, so long as the socialists sit at the back and keep their mouths shut.

This is what people usually do after doing stupid and damaging things.

Personally I think that most of the PLP would describe themselves as social democrats, and I think on this sort of platform Labour might be in with a chance. I'm not convinced by Offwidth's 0% chance of Corbyn madness. Consider his utter mishandling of the anti-semitism issue, which was obviously a problem that could (and has) caused a great deal of damage, but had a pretty straightforward solution; it's clear the guy is just too thick and unimaginative to deal with it, but expelling a few hundred vile racists (which included his friends) is a piece of piss in comparison to the many challenges of being PM. Corybn has no sense, I think, of unintended consequences, of policies throwing up weird incentives or just being plain difficult to enact properly. He can't work closely with the PLP, how on earth is he going to negotiate for the UK on the international stage? Is he going to be able to stand up to the likes of Len McCluskey when Len wants to throw his weight around?

Both Corbyn and Johnson are over-promoted idiots, showing up the weakness of our ruling class, and whilst I think Johnson would be way worse, it's not as if Corbyn won't be damaging too.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 01, 2019, 11:59:31 am
But this is the problem.


Its the wrong problem.

"Currently Labour don’t oppose the Tories.They oppose everybody and everything from the PLP right. They represent a small fringe."

This is dangerously simplistic (as many Labour MPs are good) and an argument that is irrelevant in this election.

"End of. So the vast majority of those who wish to not vote Tory, have no realistic place to go, with leaping out of the frying pan into a loony left fire."

Yes they do have somewhere to go... as voting-in good Labour MPs in Labour marginals in this election (and Lib Dem in the S and SW tory marginals) is important and has zero risk in 'loony left' terms, as even in a Labour majority situation the moderate MPs won't let Corbyn get all his own way (just as the moderate tory MPs blocked the idocy of Boris). Labour unlike the tories has lots of moderate MPs

"Sorry Simon, I like you, personally, but I don’t want a socialist paradise; because I have first hand experience of want that actually means."

I can see a Socialist paradise being possible, but so far the exploitation of power, the geopolitics and the opposition to such regimes led to those totalitarian or failed states. Communist parties run cities and states pretty well in some democratic countries.

"Humans don’t do what they’re supposed to, when idealists try and impose they’re dreams on reality. All those Tory voters, for instance, are not just going to buckle under and toe the party line."

Another red herring... we face a real danger with Boris and co,  and plenty of tory voters know that and are now voting Lib Dem... their human failings mean too many will 'cut off their nose to spite their face', so never vote Labour even when its the best way of blocking Boris  (I have the same failing in the other direction, but I do recognise without brave tory MPs who lost their immediate career we wouldn't even be in this fight)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 01, 2019, 12:05:11 pm

I'm not convinced by Offwidth's 0% chance of Corbyn madness. Consider his utter mishandling of the anti-semitism issue, which was obviously a problem that could (and has) caused a great deal of damage, but had a pretty straightforward solution; it's clear the guy is just too thick and unimaginative to deal with it, but expelling a few hundred vile racists (which included his friends) is a piece of piss in comparison to the many challenges of being PM. Corybn has no sense, I think, of unintended consequences, of policies throwing up weird incentives or just being plain difficult to enact properly. He can't work closely with the PLP, how on earth is he going to negotiate for the UK on the international stage? Is he going to be able to stand up to the likes of Len McCluskey when Len wants to throw his weight around?

Thats because you're ignoring the realistic impact of all those good MPs (including some socialists) and the political reality of any minority government; and falling for irrelevant tory press tropes and internal party problems that of course have reduced Labour's electoral chances. Sure Len will still be influential, sure some more bad decisions will be made, and the stock markets always dislike a hung parliament. However, there is simply is no likelihood of any country enveloping madness from Labour in this election, even if they win (as they can't win big).

Given what we face from Boris, it's completely safe to vote to protect all those Labour marginals from the alternative this time. When this Boris brexit and this incredibly reactionary (even for the tories) government line-up is removed, we can all return to more normal party politics.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: seankenny on December 01, 2019, 12:34:34 pm
falling for irrelevant tory press tropes
Quote

I would really, really appreciate it if you stopped this line altogether. Like I'm some kind of sucker for Tory lies and you - with seer-like powers - have seen through them.

Firstly, it's just arrogant. I'm not some political naif. Secondly, you're making all sorts of assumptions about the media I consume, assumptions which are simply wrong. Thirdly, it's utterly unpersuasive and counter-productive to your cause.

I doubt you will, however, as "everyone but us has fallen for the lies" is the de rigeur delusion for modern Labour. But it would be nice if you could try.



Thats because you're ignoring the realistic impact of all those good MPs (including some socialists) and the political reality of any minority government; and falling for irrelevant tory press tropes and internal party problems that of course have reduced Labour's electoral chances. Sure Len will still be influential, sure some more bad decisions will be made, and the stock markets always dislike a hung parliament. However, there is simply is no likelihood of any country enveloping madness from Labour in this election, even if they win (as they can't win big).
Quote

I've seen the impact of those good MPs first hand. My local MP is really decent but daren't say anything about the anti-semitism crisis because she'd be at risk of deselection. The mob will pick of individual MPs who speak up, ministerial posts will be dangled in front of others, and anyhow Labour MPs have shown themselves spectacularly spineless in the face of Corbyn and his idiocy. Has it ever occured to you that Len McCluskey, a Brexiter who, when democratically challenged on his leadership took his opponent to court, is exactly the sort of person I don't want having any say in the future of the UK? I'm both left-wing and liberal, whereas it's clear McCluskey is far left and authoritarian: and to me, those people are big, big trouble.

I note that Cameron led a minority government and it was a disaster for the UK.



Quote
Given what we face from Boris, it's completely safe to vote to protect all those Labour marginals from the alternative this time. When this Boris brexit and this incredibly reactionary (even for the tories) government line-up is removed, we can all return to more normal party politics.

I agree that Boris and his cronies will be a disaster. Not sure about a return to more normal politics. Consider Brutus' remark above: like all the populists of left and right, he sees no failure too big that it can be an obstacle to continuing to suggest stupid things to do.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 01, 2019, 01:30:21 pm
Sean, my concern is not with your fair criticism of Labour mistakes, it's with not recognising the much greater risks from our actions allowing someone else in, who will almost certainly make more and bigger mistakes, and who will stand by this real madness that Boris has started (as all but a tiny minority of tory MPs will). Who seriously expects any MP to be perfect? The question is always how they and their government compare to the alternative; and this time the answer to that question seems very stark to me; more so than in any other election in my lifetime.  So no, with so much at stake I'm not going to be quiet.

If you think I'm wrong about 0%, why not explain the catastrophic damage a Labour minority government can do to the country (rather than to themselves). I can see nothing that compares to this fantasy of a brexit and these libertarian minded liars selling the people of Britian a one nation illusion. When it all unravels what do you think will happen?... that they will all say sorry and resign??

When anyone tells you they think Corbyn is a danger, they are right but that danger is to him and his party, not to the UK (in anything but this gives Boris a better chance of winning).  That he is a danger to the UK is one half of the tory press big lie in this election alongside the getting brexit done with an oven ready deal. Since he is still the Labour leader we have to do the best we can despite that. Voting for good Labour MPs in Labour marginals is no risk.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 01, 2019, 02:58:13 pm
I’ve been in a wedding, since my last post this morning (just managed to sneak off for a few minutes before the reception), I missed the Bojo interview, because we were driving etc.

I understand it was a train wreck and in a just world, enough to end his run.

But it wasn’t.

Offwidth, I think you are missing my point, it doesn’t matter what I or you believe or hope, only what the electorate at large percieve.
You are preaching to the choir!

Opened FB to find out how the interview went, this was the top of my timeline. It’s a left leaning, Labour supporting friend; who is usually trying to convince me to move to the left.
I haven’t capped to comments, there are too many (left, center and right) but the upshot is he’s voting LD.
He knows it will be a wasted vote.
(https://i.ibb.co/LgghDPK/6-FC4-C697-6736-4843-B58-E-E939-AD0347-D6.jpg)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 01, 2019, 04:32:07 pm
I am asking for people to try and change perceptions, where the perception is untrue or being used to hide an even worse evil from Boris's side. I have no concerns about UKB users understanding my argument, but how many will act on it beyond their own vote?

Boris in his Marr interview blamed Labour for the early release that enabled the terrorism this week.

Those same Facebook themes on Corbyn's links to terrorists came up in 2017, yet Labour did well enough then to prevent a tory majority. People who think that way on that issue probably won't ever change. What Corbyn did was wrong but is not a serious  threat to the UK if he ends up leading a UK minority government (in a Parliament which includes Sinn Fein MPs, who don't take their seats in protest).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 02, 2019, 09:38:32 am

I can see a Socialist paradise being possible, but so far the exploitation of power, the geopolitics and the opposition to such regimes led to those totalitarian or failed states. Communist parties run cities and states pretty well in some democratic countries.

Really? Where? Perhaps the fact that its 'some' tells you something? Communism in the former USSR was an economic and social disaster which morphed into today's brand of gangster capitalism in Russia under Putin. Venezuela,  Cuba... none of these are prosperous,  desirable places to live. Eastern European Communism again,  hardly a roaring success.  Where has done well?
Social democracy,  sure but socialist paradise?

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 02, 2019, 09:42:39 am
The Aztecs had some quite progressive policies but did also cut the hearts from the living bodies of their human sacrifices.
 :devangel:
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 02, 2019, 09:55:00 am

I can see a Socialist paradise being possible, but so far the exploitation of power, the geopolitics and the opposition to such regimes led to those totalitarian or failed states. Communist parties run cities and states pretty well in some democratic countries.

Really? Where? Perhaps the fact that its 'some' tells you something? Communism in the former USSR was an economic and social disaster which morphed into today's brand of gangster capitalism in Russia under Putin. Venezuela,  Cuba... none of these are prosperous,  desirable places to live. Eastern European Communism again,  hardly a roaring success.  Where has done well?
Social democracy,  sure but socialist paradise?

Those are countries... but you forgot Nepal and that Cyprus had a communist majority about a decade back .....examples of  internal states are Kerala and Maranhao... quite a few cities and thousands of towns (many hundreds in France) have had a communist authority or mayor.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: i.munro on December 02, 2019, 10:00:21 am

He knows it will be a wasted vote.

If only it would be  wasted !!  it's effectively  a vote for the Tories.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on December 02, 2019, 10:43:08 am

If only it would be  wasted !!  it's effectively  a vote for the Tories.

That’s a very constituency dependent statement!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 02, 2019, 02:48:43 pm
Most progressive minded people who won't vote otherwise or who are in a safe seat can always vote Green. This won't elect many Green MPs but it will add pressure to the other parties on climate change. In that respect there is no such thing as a wasted vote for a progressive. You can be sure that most reactionaries will vote brexit (big or little B), which means for once its not just the marginals that count .....nearly all votes will count in our FPTP system.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: i.munro on December 02, 2019, 02:53:17 pm

That’s a very constituency dependent statement!

Well hopefully!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nutty on December 02, 2019, 04:01:57 pm
.....nearly all votes will count in our FPTP system.

Pull the other one Offwidth. If we wake up on the 13th to a Conservative majority in terms of seats, then no matter what the percentage breakdowns are then all we'll hear is that the voters have given them a clear mandate etc. etc. Any vote that hasn't been for the winning candidate in a constituency will be considered not to exist, until it is useful for determining where to spend campaign resources in the next election.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 02, 2019, 04:11:24 pm
.....nearly all votes will count in our FPTP system.


This is only true of runner-up parties acquiring votes in sufficient quantities and in the necessary constituencies to present a credible threat to the Conservative or Labour party. So 500 or 1000 odd votes is not going to cut any ice in the majority of places.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: andy popp on December 02, 2019, 04:23:05 pm
The Conservatives have held Hugo Swire's seat in Devon since 1835 ...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/02/14million-voters-live-areas-held-same-party-since-second-world-war
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on December 02, 2019, 04:37:44 pm
Just had a look at ours: with the exception of a brief stint by the Common Wealth party after WW2 Skipton and Ripon (formerly Skipton) has been conservative since 1918!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 02, 2019, 04:55:17 pm
I think you underestimate how many people are really worried about  climate change and other green issues. As most seats are safe seats the Greens could garner extra votes in the millions if most people followed my advice of voting green as a constructive protest vote in in such seats.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 02, 2019, 05:48:37 pm
I think you underestimate how many people are really worried about  climate change and other green issues. As most seats are safe seats the Greens could garner extra votes in the millions if most people followed my advice of voting green as a constructive protest vote in in such seats.

This may shock you, but the majority of voters actually don't read UKB, so I'm afraid this is actually quite an unlikely scenario.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 02, 2019, 08:07:48 pm
Not sure if anybody saw the focus group sessions on C4 news tonight. Worth catching on All 4 if your short of a horror film to watch tonight.
A room full of working class 2017 Labour voters unanimously agreeing that they couldn't vote for Jeremy Corbyn and admitting that they are considering voting Conservative and love Johnson's messages on Brexit.

Absolutely chilling.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: seankenny on December 02, 2019, 10:23:35 pm
I actually really feel for Corbyn and Labour on this. They have to straddle two very different beasts to get anywhere in an election, but nevertheless o can’t help but feeling that a Remain argument from a leader they could respect might cut some ice.

Then again, maybe not. The desire to be punched in the face is strong, it seems.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 02, 2019, 10:24:41 pm
Not sure if anybody saw the focus group sessions on C4 news tonight. Worth catching on All 4 if your short of a horror film to watch tonight.
A room full of working class 2017 Labour voters unanimously agreeing that they couldn't vote for Jeremy Corbyn and admitting that they are considering voting Conservative and love Johnson's messages on Brexit.

Absolutely chilling.

Didn't see it, but that's been a very noticeable theme in vox pops on the radio for ages, and something I've heard from acquaintances
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on December 02, 2019, 10:25:54 pm
How to not win an election, 101

Context
During the election campaign a convicted terrorist who has been released early from prison, via a confusing chain of sentencing reviews and law changes that some members of the public rightly or wrongly believe are the doing of your party,  stabs to death two people in a frightening terror attack at the same location as another recent similar terrorist attack which traumatised the public.

The genius part:
Respond to an interviewer asking if convicted terrorists should serve their full sentences with an earnest: 'not necessarily'.


Political genius :look:

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 02, 2019, 11:24:52 pm
How to not win an election, 101
...
The genius part:
Respond to an interviewer asking if convicted terrorists should serve their full sentences with an earnest: 'not necessarily'.
Political genius :look:

Indeed. He might have been trying to be honest and equivacal but succeeded only in convincing probably quite a few people that he really is matey with terrorists and deserves the votes of precisely noone.
Sadly what Johnson has been coming out with is a good deal more odious, but will probably appeal to his voters.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 03, 2019, 10:17:33 am
I think you underestimate how many people are really worried about  climate change and other green issues. As most seats are safe seats the Greens could garner extra votes in the millions if most people followed my advice of voting green as a constructive protest vote in in such seats.

This may shock you, but the majority of voters actually don't read UKB, so I'm afraid this is actually quite an unlikely scenario.

I was pretty obviously talking in general and I am saying the same everywhere I visit and encouraging others to do the same. Plus UKB may be small but by the time  you look at friends of friends in the progressive bubble, If everyone here who thinks FPTP is broken campaigned on this, it could have a big influence in persuading many others that there is nothing unconscionable about gaming votes. With enough green minded people it might even go viral.

I believe this election is close and every little helps and alongside the stopping Boris message in marginals it's good to have a side mission for those who live in safe seats. Given Boris and climate change there really is no such thing as a wasted progressive vote in this election.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on December 03, 2019, 10:18:17 am
Not sure if anybody saw the focus group sessions on C4 news tonight. Worth catching on All 4 if your short of a horror film to watch tonight.
A room full of working class 2017 Labour voters unanimously agreeing that they couldn't vote for Jeremy Corbyn and admitting that they are considering voting Conservative and love Johnson's messages on Brexit.

Absolutely chilling.

I watched this and wondered if Brutus / Offwidth had seen it.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 03, 2019, 10:33:54 am

I watched this and wondered if Brutus / Offwidth had seen it.

I've known it for a long time... it's part of why I'm so passionate. It's what Matt has been pointing out (and I've given up on such votors). The sadness in this, is these same people will be the ones who will suffer most under the chaos that will ensue if we elect Boris.

The referendum was a true popularist backlash in that the educational and age profiles were stark... unlike Trump which was a bit of popularism and mostly Republican loyalty. I'm still optimistic as the polls overall are still OK and the weird local effects of a brexit election will be key... I can see Labour winning some marginal tory seats in London, northern city seats that are very marginal might hold for Labour and northern towns that were solid Labour might go tory or even maybe Brexit. The battle is keeping hold of all but net 30, of mainly northern and midland Labour marginals  (where most climbers live) and not too many surprises, and hoping the Lib Dems get 10 or marginals in the S and SW. With Boris and no Ruth the tories are toast in Scotland.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: sheavi on December 03, 2019, 10:57:44 am

 With Boris and no Ruth the tories are toast in Scotland.

Current prediction is 10 Tory seats in Scotland.  Personalities not as important, seems pro-Brexit and anti-independence Scots will back the Tories enough so as not to loose too many setas. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 03, 2019, 11:16:27 am
It's the same silly predictions as in England that show a comfortable Boris majority on the curtent polls. It's wrong but the question is by how much,  I still think the tories stand to lose up to 10 seats and there is over a week left yet. I agree the SNP may lose Fife to the Lib Dems but if scots want to stop Boris its usually much easier than in England to just choose the party most likely to beat the local tory MP or close tory challenger.  The stuff from the tories is completly opaque propaganda nonsense: it assumes someone should never vote SNP if they don't want independance... brexit is the issue right now and if the SNP are clearly the main tory challenger progressives should vote for them; they can vote how they believe on independance later, when the Boris brexit madness is stopped. An example of full scottish predictions is here (but won't properly account for tactical voting):

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/area_scot.html


As elsewhere, it would be good if progressives in safe seats seriously considered voting green.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: SA Chris on December 03, 2019, 11:46:48 am
Love to get shot of Andrew Bowie, he can fuck off with his ch-ch-changes.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on December 03, 2019, 01:57:43 pm
Not much time for anything at mo, let alone posting a considered reply to Stu’s question.

I think Corbyn holds antisemític views and that makes him  a disgrace, but does not necessarily mean you should not vote for his party. It depends on the other guy too.

 Being pragmatic- in every sense- this makes the point pretty well.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/03/you-know-youre-not-legally-required-to-like-jeremy-corbyn-in-order-to-vote-for-him-right
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: galpinos on December 03, 2019, 02:02:26 pm
Pat Mountain, a cross between a Toast of London charcter and Nan from Catherine Tate. Obviously a safe hands appointment from UKIP:

https://twitter.com/grahamlithgow/status/1201509205364105218

The "other racist parties" slip in this clip is outstanding:

https://twitter.com/MrRoberts84/status/1201441826856722437
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on December 03, 2019, 03:07:42 pm
Last night, I guess partly in despair after watching C4 News I had a slight revelation - I've pinpointed (one of) the thing(s) that sets my teeth on edge about Magic Grandpa.

I can't recall what it was in relation to - I think it was the London Bridge attack - but it's his tone when he does talk to the media.

He sounds like he's a slightly peeved customer on the phone to a call centre, who's been passed on to the third person in a row and is having to wearily run through the problem he's been having with his account yet again.

Add to this that (another of my peeves), when asked about a given issue (position on Brexit, Labour antisemitism...) his response is often to describe the process, and not how he feels about it, or what he would do about it - no wonder people see him as evasive, non-committal, or rather see Boris as decisive and invigorated by comparison. 

You can picture it now:

"...Emily - what we are doing about this is very clear - we're tabling a motion to the PLP, and when all opinions have been fully discussed a vote will be conducted, and once the outcome of that vote has been ratified there will be a committee decision at the next meeting of the..."


Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: duncan on December 03, 2019, 04:14:04 pm
My constituency is Holborn and St Pancras. This has been solid Labour since it was created in 1983 and was 73% remain in 2016. In 2017, Keir Starmer recieved >50000 votes with a >300000 majority in 2017, more than the total number for all other candidates.

Do I hold my nose over Corbyn and support a reasonably effective local MP or do I protest and vote Green?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Andy B on December 03, 2019, 04:49:30 pm
If he’s got a majority of 300000 from 50000 votes, you should be ringing the electoral commission!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 03, 2019, 05:54:44 pm
Being pragmatic- in every sense- this makes the point pretty well.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/03/you-know-youre-not-legally-required-to-like-jeremy-corbyn-in-order-to-vote-for-him-right

Isn't it peculiar that this logic doesn't seem to cut any ice with Corbyn supporters when used to support someone like Jo Swinson, or indeed, anyone who isn't Jeremy Corbyn?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 04, 2019, 09:41:23 am
 I agree but I think such genuinely tribal numbers are dropping all the time.

Sometimes in the south (mainly London) the Lib Dems being too concerned about Corbyn can be the big problem. You've got to be a bit daft as a progressive to vote Lib Dem when the potential of an excellent Labour candidate to unseat IDS is on the cards.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/11/will-labour-faiza-shaheen-topple-iain-duncan-smith-chingford-and-woodford-green-tory-heartland

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/02/chingford-voters-seek-change-former-tory-heartland-marginal
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 04, 2019, 10:04:08 am
I agree but I think such genuinely tribal numbers are dropping all the time.

Sometimes in the south (mainly London) the Lib Dems being too concerned about Corbyn can be the big problem. You've got to be a bit daft as a progressive to vote Lib Dem when the potential of an excellent Labour candidate to unseat IDS is on the cards.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/11/will-labour-faiza-shaheen-topple-iain-duncan-smith-chingford-and-woodford-green-tory-heartland

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/02/chingford-voters-seek-change-former-tory-heartland-marginal

I take your point about voting tactically,  and partially agree, but I really think I'd struggle to feel okay about voting Labour even in this situation (hypothetical,  as I'm not, Sheffield Central is very Labour anyway) as I disagree too strongly with the views of many (not all) of the people at the head of the party. 
At the moment  Corbyn seems to be trying a balancing act to keep just enough people happy to get votes, having been a vocal advocate for revolutionary socialism for decades. Far from a new way of doing politics that he originally promised,  he increasingly seems almost Johnsonian in his ability to try to say anything to keep people happy. 
Conjecture only, I might think differently if my vote might unseat Ian Duncan Smith,  who is worse, however bad I think Corbyn might be. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nutty on December 04, 2019, 10:30:55 am
Sometimes in the south (mainly London) the Lib Dems being too concerned about Corbyn can be the big problem. You've got to be a bit daft as a progressive to vote Lib Dem when the potential of an excellent Labour candidate to unseat IDS is on the cards.

Yes, but what are the root causes of this 'big problem'? FPTP, which Labour have never done anything to reform because it suits them (and which they have no proposals to change in their manifesto), and the Labour party's choice of leader. If the voters you wish to appeal to find your leader problematic, whose problem is that exactly?

Don't worry, this voter down south will tactically vote for Labour, but describing people you want to appeal to as daft for voting for the party they support isn't going to win much support. Should we just ban smaller parties and further polarise our politics?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 04, 2019, 12:06:12 pm
It particularly applies to those voting Lib Dem in IDS's constituency as the opportunity for Labour to win this seat is just too great, as they are gaining local leverage and only need a few thousand. Plus its another extra seat Boris needs to win elsewhere. The Green candidate has already stood down. 

We have to live with FPTP for a while yet, so if people really dislike it they need to stop worrying about tactical voting and work it.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 04, 2019, 12:31:34 pm
It should be an issue of logic for genuine Lib Dem supporters.

Lib Dems say the top priority is to stop brexit. Lib Dems say PR is important. 

Voting for Labour in that constituency and unseating a figurehead of tory idiocy on the subject  is obviously the best they can do to stop brexit. Voting tactically is just a crude form of PR (the prefered candidate for Lib Dem voters would be eliminated in a PR syatem and votes would transfer to the next preference).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nutty on December 04, 2019, 12:52:18 pm
Voting tactically is just a crude form of PR (the prefered candidate for Lib Dem voters would be eliminated in a PR syatem and votes would transfer to the next preference).

Do you mean crude version of AV?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 04, 2019, 01:05:43 pm
Voting tactically is just a crude form of PR (the prefered candidate for Lib Dem voters would be eliminated in a PR syatem and votes would transfer to the next preference).

Incorrect. The Lib Dems (and all other non-Con/Lab parties) relatively poor showing is a product of FPTP. In an AV or PR environment, you'd likely see much more support for these parties - to the point where they became real contenders in some seats.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 04, 2019, 03:02:38 pm
It's correct in terms of the effect  of normal Lib Dem supporters voting in that particular seat Will. If they vote Lib Dem, their vote makes a smallish losing position a bit bigger. If they vote Labour, IDS might well lose the seat. Not even a green protest vote is possible there as the Green wants IDS to lose and has pulled out to help  (because of brexit and maybe as IDSl, like a lot of the tory right, link to libertarian think tanks that have helped US and UK climate change deniers).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 04, 2019, 03:31:25 pm
Your assumption is that where non-Con/Lab parties don't currently show significant support, that is because they cannot command that support. In fact, we have no idea what sort of support the Lib Dems could command under a different voting system. All the previous polls have been FPTP, and tactical voting is hardly a new thing, so support for 3rd parties is already obscured.

To use your example in IDS' constituency you might have thousands of people who wish to vote for the Lib Dems or some other party, but they are locked into a struggle to keep their least favourite party out, so always end up voting Con/Lab. You're looking at that data and assuming that the Lib Dems are not well supported there - in fact, the Lib Dems may be able to command enough votes there to make it a three way tie, but we can't know this while those voters are forced to fall in with their least worst option.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 04, 2019, 03:53:26 pm
ANyway... at dinner last night (work thing away) - I was sat opposite a gentleman who lives in Edinburgh - a lifelong labour voter, who will vote SNP to get rid of their Tory MP who has a 1000 majority. He hates the SNP. He spat vitriol about them. But he hates the Tories more....

Somehow in many parts of England the labour party have managed to let this slip - so whilst they don't like Labour much  - they dont hate the Tories any more etc...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: SA Chris on December 04, 2019, 04:56:40 pm
If all my local Lib and Lab voters do the same SNP might be in with a shot.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: winhill on December 04, 2019, 07:18:30 pm
Scathing stuff from the New Statesman leader today:

"But the essential judgement that must be made is on Mr Corbyn himself. His reluctance to apologise for the anti-Semitism in Labour and to take a stance on Brexit, the biggest issue facing the country, make him unfit to be prime minister."

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/election-2019/2019/12/leader-britain-deserves-better
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Fiend on December 04, 2019, 07:25:07 pm
Less fit than the current turd who couldn't even apologise for his own obnoxious behaviour and outright lying??
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 04, 2019, 09:43:26 pm
Scathing stuff from the New Statesman leader today:

"But the essential judgement that must be made is on Mr Corbyn himself. His reluctance to apologise for the anti-Semitism in Labour and to take a stance on Brexit, the biggest issue facing the country, make him unfit to be prime minister."

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/election-2019/2019/12/leader-britain-deserves-better
Less fit than the current turd who couldn't even apologise for his own obnoxious behaviour and outright lying??

Did you read the leader or just the quote?  The leader says that they advocate for no party but encourage all voters to vote tactically if necessary in order to deprive Johnson of a majority.  It affords both of the main party leaders  equal opprobrium. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Fiend on December 04, 2019, 09:52:55 pm
Sorry, no I didn't. Gave a brief skim just now.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 05, 2019, 09:56:53 am
Your assumption is that where non-Con/Lab parties don't currently show significant support, that is because they cannot command that support. In fact, we have no idea what sort of support the Lib Dems could command under a different voting system. All the previous polls have been FPTP, and tactical voting is hardly a new thing, so support for 3rd parties is already obscured.

To use your example in IDS' constituency you might have thousands of people who wish to vote for the Lib Dems or some other party, but they are locked into a struggle to keep their least favourite party out, so always end up voting Con/Lab. You're looking at that data and assuming that the Lib Dems are not well supported there - in fact, the Lib Dems may be able to command enough votes there to make it a three way tie, but we can't know this while those voters are forced to fall in with their least worst option.

We have to deal with the election next week with the electoral system in front of us, with Boris and his fantasy brexit and his highly reactionary liar cabinet selling us libertarian tinged madness behind a one nation disguise. I'm seriously worried about what will happen in the UK when their lies backfire.  A tory majority is a high risk and high consequence outcome. The Lib Dem party say the most important national priority is to stop brexit. They propose PR systems that include transfering votes. In Chingford the polls clearly say Lib Dems can't win. Any sensible Lib Dem in that constituency, with that figurehead of this modern idiocy in the tory party, IDS, being vulnerable, should hold their nose and vote Labour.

I get that you think differently but please don't put words in my mouth. I'm not making any assumptions about the future of PR as I have no idea if and how voters would bring about that change in my lifetime (something I would like to have seen decades back).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 06, 2019, 09:01:24 pm
Kinnell - this leaders debate is a car crash for Corbyn from what I can see....
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on December 06, 2019, 09:31:24 pm
Who? I only noticed BJ.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 06, 2019, 09:32:16 pm
Who? I only noticed BJ.

Exactly - walked all over him...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 06, 2019, 10:17:44 pm
Who? I only noticed BJ.

Exactly - walked all over him...

Seemed as though both were mainly repeating their own slogans as they have been for the past few weeks.  Boris just crowbars in get Brexit done over and over again, Corbyn says NHS for sale, austerity, and demands that someone let him finish. 

I read some of Major and Blair's speeches from today. Quite novel, their
actual passion and eloquence against the two piss poor efforts at inspiring people personified by Johnson and Corbyn. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 07, 2019, 12:55:36 pm
Poll gap back down to 10 points... polls always struggle to capture the youth vote  with a strong Labour preference  and the the likely increase in tactical voting.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/dec/05/election-polls-uk-2019-latest-opinion-poll-tracker

Who, with more than half a brain, really cares who wins in a debate between two poor leaders. This election is about a range from a Labour minority government to a Boris majority (with his bullshit oven ready brexit and his bullshit claim of one nationism when any remaining remotely moderate big name ministers in his reactionary cabinet are no longer standing).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 07, 2019, 07:38:13 pm
 A few more links:

A plea to better protect the NHS from exploitative private contracts

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/dec/06/private-contracts-at-the-heart-of-the-nhs-crisis

Plus its always useful, when things look dodgy, to follow the money

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/05/tories-receive-1m-funding-boost-from-billionaire-brexiter


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50686045

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Fiend on December 07, 2019, 08:59:27 pm
Just started reading this, seems sensible: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/07/frankie-boyle-election-countdown-praying-prorogue-next-parliament
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 07, 2019, 10:32:21 pm
Just started reading this, seems sensible: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/07/frankie-boyle-election-countdown-praying-prorogue-next-parliament

It seems increasingly obvious that Johnson will get an unspectacular but sufficient majority,  the UK will leave the EU at the end of January, and, in a years time there will be no trade deal,  which Johnson will lie about, say it's all the European Union's fault,  or blame the Irish/ Nicola Sturgeon/ immigration/ buses and try to pass it off as a famous victory. 

I really hope I'm totally wrong. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 08, 2019, 09:49:34 am
Just started reading this, seems sensible: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/07/frankie-boyle-election-countdown-praying-prorogue-next-parliament

Some gems .....from the insightful...."Media plurality is an issue we need to address in this country: the alternative is living in a timeline where, because Corbyn has wonky glasses, in a couple of years you’ll be living in a tent city outside an Amazon warehouse trying to GoFund a tonsillectomy. The Tories calling Corbyn a communist and a threat to national security after handing nuclear power plants to the Chinese is a bit like getting a bollocking off Charles Manson for putting down slug pellets."

"This current iteration of Conservatism, a kind of mutant nationalism that insists all our infrastructure has to be owned by other countries, has nowhere to go but into an asset-stripped, deregulated wasteland. I don’t know how anyone votes for that, or what happens after they do. British people don’t get on well enough to form militia."

To the plain insulting through anger..."You won’t be surprised to learn that I won’t be voting Tory on Thursday, for much the same reasons that I won’t be spending the day kicking children and pensioners into traffic."

To why despair is to be avoided ...."Twenty miles up, it’s a freezing cold universe, we only have the human connections we make here, nothing is permanent, and love is our only defence. I suggest we all vote accordingly, and try to help each other get through this thing, whatever it is."

Defy those polls, which were wrong last time, and do your best to keep the local tory out.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: i.munro on December 08, 2019, 10:58:05 am
This point seems to have not cut through the noise well
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/20/labour-universal-services
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 08, 2019, 11:31:42 am
Its worth looking at the headlines daily right now to see the gulf in reporting

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-50702254

The Fail is on top mad form reporting the idiotic Simon Wiesenthal Centre's label of Corbyn's Labour as the biggest world threat to jews... almost as if Israel is not surrounded by states that would love to destroy it and facing arab terrorism within. Also interesting to see the red tops addiction to celebrity culture... Election, what election?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 08, 2019, 12:06:51 pm
Its worth looking at the headlines daily right now to see the gulf in reporting

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-50702254

The Fail is on top mad form reporting the idiotic Simon Wiesenthal Centre's label of Corbyn's Labour as the biggest world threat to jews... almost as if Israel is not surrounded by states that would love to destroy it and facing arab terrorism within. Also interesting to see the red tops addiction to celebrity culture... Election, what election?

Electioon what election? I think that’s what most people wish for. Catching up with lots of old friends last night - and there was little or no enthusiasm for any of the leaders or parties. Voting to stop the lesser of two or three evils is of course a good reason to vote - but it’s not one that makes people enthusiastic in general.

So some celeb jungle fluff is far more appealing than usual to many people I’d suggest.

A bit like chatting about the old gaskins chestnuts on here I suspect :)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 08, 2019, 12:39:32 pm
 I'd agree with that. Mainly  good people fooled and distracted into not seeing how important this is, while the press barons make more money.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on December 08, 2019, 07:06:27 pm
Well if they can be bothered to vote tactically, they may like to read this:

The top 50 seats to vote tactically to avoid a Tory majority (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/tactical-voting-guide-2019-keep-tories-out-remain-voter-general-election)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 08, 2019, 10:18:00 pm
Sorry to raise the old antisemitism thing again. Caff posted about this article on Twitter and asked people for their opinions of it, saying he thought it was mostly lies. I read the article (it's long and a bit of an exhausting read, so thorough is it) and commented back to Caff.

I can only assume that one of us has completely and utterly lost the plot because I read it and thought it contained a very large volume of evidence (of varying strengths) which together make a compelling case for a big problem at the top of the party. Caff read it and thought it was total lies, misinformation and contained "zero evidence".
We can't both be right.

If you can spare the time, I'd be interested to hear what people think of it - including those who have previously defended Corbyn on the issue on this thread. But please - don't comment either way unless you're prepared to read the article in full.

Article:
https://medium.com/@sararoseofficial/everything-i-never-wanted-to-have-to-know-about-labour-and-antisemitism-649b5bc1e576

Twitter discussion (he only calls me gullible; I can't claim to be a cyber-wanker yet):
https://twitter.com/McHaffieJames/status/1203365825807355905?s=20
https://twitter.com/Will_Hunt/status/1203411836986626048

Sorry if it's not clear where all my replies are. Conversations on Twitter make my head spin. How are you meant to keep track of all the different tangents a thread takes?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: seankenny on December 08, 2019, 10:36:14 pm
I have started reading the article and will finish it tomorrow. I also “interacted” with Caff. His comments were unpleasant for a private individual but quite simply unacceptable for a BMC Ambassador - to the point where I’m going to put in a complaint in to the organisation. We can’t have someone as a public face of our sport if they dismiss mass allegations of racism for political ends.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 08, 2019, 10:43:22 pm
I have started reading the article and will finish it tomorrow. I also “interacted” with Caff. His comments were unpleasant for a private individual but quite simply unacceptable for a BMC Ambassador - to the point where I’m going to put in a complaint in to the organisation. We can’t have someone as a public face of our sport if they dismiss mass allegations of racism for political ends.

I'm not sure that's a helpful response, Sean. If indeed he is wrong about this, which I think he is (but who knows, I'm not infallible), then he's certainly not the only one. I'd rather that people had the space to speak openly about this stuff without having to worry about getting in trouble with their employer. Hypothetically he could see my views as being very problematic and report me to my employer - where does that get us?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Fultonius on December 08, 2019, 10:49:37 pm
Sorry to raise the old antisemitism thing again. Caff posted about this article on Twitter and asked people for their opinions of it, saying he thought it was mostly lies. I read the article (it's long and a bit of an exhausting read, so thorough is it) and commented back to Caff.

I can only assume that one of us has completely and utterly lost the plot because I read it and thought it contained a very large volume of evidence (of varying strengths) which together make a compelling case for a big problem at the top of the party. Caff read it and thought it was total lies, misinformation and contained "zero evidence".
We can't both be right.

If you can spare the time, I'd be interested to hear what people think of it - including those who have previously defended Corbyn on the issue on this thread. But please - don't comment either way unless you're prepared to read the article in full.

Article:
https://medium.com/@sararoseofficial/everything-i-never-wanted-to-have-to-know-about-labour-and-antisemitism-649b5bc1e576

Twitter discussion (he only calls me gullible; I can't claim to be a cyber-wanker yet):
https://twitter.com/McHaffieJames/status/1203365825807355905?s=20
https://twitter.com/Will_Hunt/status/1203411836986626048

Sorry if it's not clear where all my replies are. Conversations on Twitter make my head spin. How are you meant to keep track of all the different tangents a thread takes?

I read it all earlier today. I've not followed through all the links, watched a few videos. It's certainly a large body alluding to many events. It seems it's largely to paint a picture of "guilty by association", rather than "guilty by action" but it has finally shed some light on many of the issues that have been raised.

That's all I'm saying for now, as I'm taking a back seat on all this.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: seankenny on December 08, 2019, 11:05:59 pm
I have started reading the article and will finish it tomorrow. I also “interacted” with Caff. His comments were unpleasant for a private individual but quite simply unacceptable for a BMC Ambassador - to the point where I’m going to put in a complaint in to the organisation. We can’t have someone as a public face of our sport if they dismiss mass allegations of racism for political ends.

I'm not sure that's a helpful response, Sean. If indeed he is wrong about this, which I think he is (but who knows, I'm not infallible), then he's certainly not the only one. I'd rather that people had the space to speak openly about this stuff without having to worry about getting in trouble with their employer. Hypothetically he could see my views as being very problematic and report me to my employer - where does that get us?

He takes money from an organisation committed to opening up climbing to parts of British society who don’t take part in it now. That means the BMC has to take racism seriously and so do its employees and its public faces. If anyone who believes mass allegations of racism is “gullible” then how can the BMC be sure that he will uphold its ethos?

As ever, replace Jew with black and ask if it would be okay. I’m complaining because I don’t want his attitudes to racism to be acceptable - and because I think climbing has a bit of a blind spot on race, for a bunch of reasons. So we need to do better.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 09, 2019, 01:06:14 am
Well if they can be bothered to vote tactically, they may like to read this:

The top 50 seats to vote tactically to avoid a Tory majority (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/tactical-voting-guide-2019-keep-tories-out-remain-voter-general-election)

That list looks mad. The East Midlands has a few big marginals and they show Rushcliffe??? I'd be delighted if the tories lost there due to Ken's past opposition of brexit, but it's a super safe tory seat. Ashfield is top of the list (likely tory win due to the brexit factor) but due to Anna Soubry splitting the vote Broxtowe might well go to Labour.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Rushcliffe

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/area_emids.html

https://www.remainunited.org/marginal-seats/


Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 09, 2019, 01:23:27 am
I have started reading the article and will finish it tomorrow. I also “interacted” with Caff. His comments were unpleasant for a private individual but quite simply unacceptable for a BMC Ambassador - to the point where I’m going to put in a complaint in to the organisation. We can’t have someone as a public face of our sport if they dismiss mass allegations of racism for political ends.

I'm not sure that's a helpful response, Sean. If indeed he is wrong about this, which I think he is (but who knows, I'm not infallible), then he's certainly not the only one. I'd rather that people had the space to speak openly about this stuff without having to worry about getting in trouble with their employer. Hypothetically he could see my views as being very problematic and report me to my employer - where does that get us?

He takes money from an organisation committed to opening up climbing to parts of British society who don’t take part in it now. That means the BMC has to take racism seriously and so do its employees and its public faces. If anyone who believes mass allegations of racism is “gullible” then how can the BMC be sure that he will uphold its ethos?

As ever, replace Jew with black and ask if it would be okay. I’m complaining because I don’t want his attitudes to racism to be acceptable - and because I think climbing has a bit of a blind spot on race, for a bunch of reasons. So we need to do better.

Where is he abusing BMC communications? As a citizen he has a right to his opinions. Just to be clear I think the Labour handling of antisemitism is appalling,  but most Labour critics of some of the backlash are at most just naive rather than racist. I also don't think Caff is racist from knowing him. If you look at the Fail and Times headlines today the tory papers are making much unfair mischief on the subject, so it's very political. Labour under Corbyn is the biggest threat to world jews according to the Fail. Ludicrous propaganda.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: andy popp on December 09, 2019, 06:09:47 am
For all the undoubted importance of this election, which is hard to over estimate, I've encountered pretty much zero interest in it or Brexit amongst colleagues and acquaintances here in Denmark, a slight shrug of the shoulders at most. The whole thing appears as little more than an uninteresting farce. It's sobering.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 09, 2019, 08:53:01 am
It's an uninspiring election,  the sheer cynicism shown by both main parties in totally undeliverable promises,  over simplistic slogans (especially the conservatives) and lack of any discernible respect for voters intelligence. 
Andrew Rawnsley noted in the Observer yesterday
 "(If) the Tories win a majority they have done nothing to deserve, the lasting legacy of Labour’s Corbynite era will be another five years of Conservative government."
I almost feel as though the issue over Corbyns antisemitism problems is increasingly irrelevant as surely he personally cannot outlast another defeat? What, however will the conservative party do now its pitching for a totally different section of electorate than even 2 years ago?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 09, 2019, 09:25:56 am
It's a result of the black hole of brexit sucking in political energy as much as purges of the best minds from the top of both main parties.

If the Boris brexit tips a fragile world economy into a protectionist linked crash, the Danes might pay attention. I'm terrified that we hear very few voices other than those of our politicians and the media circus that surrounds them. Boris's plans are dangerously unrealistic.. the CBI must know that, our economists must know that, our trade experts must know that, our allies and trading partners must know that. 

As for the character of the man. Max Hastings, his old boss at the Telegraph, summed him up best:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/24/boris-johnson-prime-minister-tory-party-britain
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: joeisidle on December 09, 2019, 01:16:06 pm
Sorry to raise the old antisemitism thing again. Caff posted about this article on Twitter and asked people for their opinions of it, saying he thought it was mostly lies. I read the article (it's long and a bit of an exhausting read, so thorough is it) and commented back to Caff.

I can only assume that one of us has completely and utterly lost the plot because I read it and thought it contained a very large volume of evidence (of varying strengths) which together make a compelling case for a big problem at the top of the party. Caff read it and thought it was total lies, misinformation and contained "zero evidence".
We can't both be right.

If you can spare the time, I'd be interested to hear what people think of it - including those who have previously defended Corbyn on the issue on this thread. But please - don't comment either way unless you're prepared to read the article in full.

Article:
https://medium.com/@sararoseofficial/everything-i-never-wanted-to-have-to-know-about-labour-and-antisemitism-649b5bc1e576

Twitter discussion (he only calls me gullible; I can't claim to be a cyber-wanker yet):
https://twitter.com/McHaffieJames/status/1203365825807355905?s=20
https://twitter.com/Will_Hunt/status/1203411836986626048

Sorry if it's not clear where all my replies are. Conversations on Twitter make my head spin. How are you meant to keep track of all the different tangents a thread takes?

Read through the article and skimmed its sources. It’s a little bit frightening to watch the dismissive reaction from others in the climbing community on Twitter. Clearly Corbyn is far from being the politician with the biggest problem with race in this country, but I can’t compute how someone could read the article and the numerous sources it provides and not maybe stop to think if there’s more to this than just “the media’s smear campaign”.

I will be voting Labour for many of the reasons that the author highlights towards the end of the article, even if she’s reached a different conclusion on how to vote herself. However, even if the media’s coverage of this could be argued to be disproportionate, I really hope (but doubt) that Labour’s campaigning base will reflect that there might be less for the right-wing media to spin against the party on this if they gave them less ammunition.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 10, 2019, 07:14:35 am
To be read alongside this view that I linked earlier (thanks again to Deepsoup)

https://www.patheos.com/blogs/writingfromtheedge/2019/11/as-a-british-jew-im-not-fearful-of-a-corbyn-government-but-im-horrified-at-how-antisemitism-is-being-used-against-him/

For balance we have a fun link from Peter Oborne ... the tory commentator

https://boris-johnson-lies.com/
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 10, 2019, 10:16:00 am
The Patheos article has a central argument that because the Labour government are not planning a genocide, the discussion of antisemitism is overblown. I've seen the article before when a friend posted it to Facebook. She said: "I have Jewish ancestry and distant relatives in Israel. I don't feel threatened by a Labour government. They're hardly comparable to Nazi Germany".

Is that really where the bar should be set? I am not Jewish, but that strikes me as a horribly naive and insensitive attitude. Even if we are not facing an imminent genocide, we should hold the party to account on this, especially since Labour is a party that is supposed to have anti-racism at its very core.

And not least because for some people it will make it impossible to vote for the party - the only party that can feasibly form a non-Conservative government. The institutionalisation of the antisemitism was the final straw that led me to leave the party. It was also the thing I agonised over most when deciding how to vote in this election. The issue plays too easily into the hands of the Conservatives who only need people to not vote Labour to win.

Even if we are not concerned that a Labour government might actively persecute Jews, we should be concerned about what it might do to embolden antisemites: in precisely the same way that many of us here were concerned at the spike in hate crimes that followed the Brexit referendum.

Have people even read the IHRA definition? I am not an expert on this issue, but I know enough to see that there is a problem.

The videos in this Twitter thread are not evidence of institutional antisemitism on their own, but how can these people have so little awareness to go to a Labour event and start shouting antisemitic things at the Jewish protesters who are there to make the case that there is antisemitism in the party?

https://twitter.com/hannah1_rose/status/1204066428950855680?s=19
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: galpinos on December 10, 2019, 10:29:55 am
I find the whole anti-Semitism issue difficult. Being in Manchester, there is a pretty sizable Jewish population and having canvassed some opinion, it still does not seem clear cut. The views expressed ranged from there being no more an issue with anti-Semitism in the Labour party than the population as a whole, the Tories are equally anti-Semitic, to Corbyn is one step away from Hitler, and all opinions seemed to be clouded significantly by party politics.

My frustration lies with the fact that even if it isn’t as big a problem as is being made out, even if it is just being weaponised by the mainstream right-wing press, it should have and could have been stamped out pretty early on but has been allowed to fester and undermine a flawed but hopeful and positive manifesto.

Why JC couldn’t just say, “I’m sorry Jewish people feel there is a problem with anti-Semitism in the Labour Party, the fact they feel they can’t vote for Labour is awful and if Jewish people feel that then we have a problem then we have a problem and we have to do something about it and we will do something about it”.

The fact the Tories seem to be perceived as the less racist party is just bonkers.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: seankenny on December 10, 2019, 10:36:39 am
Corbyn can’t say that because he is part of the problem.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 10, 2019, 11:52:55 am
Hi Will

It's a genuine opinion and it clearly indicates that not all moderate jews in Labour feel the same way. Its not my opinion as I personally think that the handling of antisemitism complaints in Labour was appalling for a progressive party and that the  threats, including a few death threats, that were made to complainents,  were terrifying for a progressive party.

McDonnell has now apologised for the party's failue to get this right several times and admitted it has damaged the party in the Marr show on Sunday. That forensic interviewer Philip Schofield finally got Corbyn to apologise earlier in the week.

In contrast, the Fail said on it's headline a few days back that Corbyn was the biggest world threat to jews. The tories investigated clear public evidence of many cases of Islamophobia by some undefined process that led to the perpetrators to nearly all be back in post within days; plus they have their own antisemitism complaints.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 10, 2019, 11:58:06 am
Anyway, Ashworth has fucked up today for the LP - which is overshadowing (in some outlets) Johnsons fuck ups...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 10, 2019, 12:02:43 pm
Anyway, Ashworth has fucked up today for the LP - which is overshadowing (in some outlets) Johnsons fuck ups...

 He says what was a good conservative friend of his deliberately misreported some friendly joking as fact. However that can only really apply to saying Labour would lose, having just read the full transcript. He admits it makes him look like a 'plonker'.

Anyhow ... the latest tory chicanary:

https://mobile.twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1204175955314577410
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 10, 2019, 12:42:11 pm
It's a genuine opinion and it clearly indicates that not all moderate jews in Labour feel the same way.
Fair enough. Though if the surveys are representative then that proportion may be as little as 13%.

Its not my opinion as I personally think that the handling of antisemitism complaints in Labour was appalling for a progressive party and that the  threats, including a few death threats, that were made to complainents,  were terrifying for a progressive party.
We're in agreement here - so surely the correct response is to make a noise about this until the leadership fixes the issue?

McDonnell has now apologised for the party's failue to get this right several times and admitted it has damaged the party in the Marr show on Sunday. That forensic interviewer Philip Schofield finally got Corbyn to apologise earlier in the week.
McDonnell has, from what I've seen, been much better on this than JC, but he is the Shadow Chancellor, not the leader.
I have a feeling that JC may have apologised before for this, though I can't remember for sure. If anyone has a citation then it'd be welcome. If this is the first time he's apologised, one has to wonder why (after the issue has dogged the party for well over a year) the apology is delivered with less than a week to go to the election - far too late to have real impact.

In contrast, the Fail said on it's headline a few days back that Corbyn was the biggest world threat to jews. The tories investigated clear public evidence of many cases of Islamophobia by some undefined process that led to the perpetrators to nearly all be back in post within days; plus they have their own antisemitism complaints.
I'm not in the business of defending the Mail, vile rag that it is. The question of exactly how racist the Tory party is (very, duh) is completely irrelevant here. Not being quite as racist as the other lot is neither a fitting aspiration nor a defence.


I'm not sure if you have, but if you haven't please set aside 45 minutes to properly read and absorb the Medium article that I linked to - the one that Caff was so keen to discredit.

Apologies from the top are one thing. What I really want to see is clear evidence that the problems with the party's complaints and disciplinary procedure have been addressed. If someone can put that in front of me then I will very happily read it and change my view accordingly. I don't want this to be an issue that needs to be continually discussed, but until it is properly dealt with then I'm afraid we must discuss it.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 10, 2019, 01:10:47 pm
In the end, this is really just an awful lot of words to say “if McDonnell (or just about anyone but Corbyn) was the leader, Labour would be on for a landslide”.

Well, the LP will have five years of increasing devastation of public spending, lowering living standards, increased homelessness and poverty; to boost their new leader, before their first electoral test in 2025 or so...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 10, 2019, 06:29:55 pm
Hi Will   I can't see how anyone can be made happy about the complaints processes right now as we are in the middle of ongoing independant investigations and some cases are yet to be resolved.  That we are here in an election is due to Labour shooting themselves in the foot repeatedly:  anyone with half a brain must have realised this would never just go away. The comparison of tory and Labour racism is important as one or the other of the parties will provide our next PM... however in a minority Labour government Labour policy will require compromise (and antisemitism issues could well be part of that, given those Labour MPs who moved to the Lib Dems over this).

Evidence of hacked accounts already for the link I provided above (somone trying to fool the public that the incident of the boy on the floor of the hospital was faked). This public manipulation from the tory side is becoming increasingly orwellian daily.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/dec/10/woman-says-account-hacked-to-post-fake-story-about-hospital-boy
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 10, 2019, 10:48:57 pm
Hi Will   I can't see how anyone can be made happy about the complaints processes right now as we are in the middle of ongoing independant investigations and some cases are yet to be resolved.  That we are here in an election is due to Labour shooting themselves in the foot repeatedly:  anyone with half a brain must have realised this would never just go away. The comparison of tory and Labour racism is important as one or the other of the parties will provide our next PM... however in a minority Labour government Labour policy will require compromise (and antisemitism issues could well be part of that, given those Labour MPs who moved to the Lib Dems over this).

Evidence of hacked accounts already for the link I provided above (somone trying to fool the public that the incident of the boy on the floor of the hospital was faked). This public manipulation from the tory side is becoming increasingly orwellian daily.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/dec/10/woman-says-account-hacked-to-post-fake-story-about-hospital-boy

It may well be that the conservative party is broadcasting its newspeak to credulous  voters but the reaction of the left seems to have been remarkably ineffectual.  Demanding fair play with other like minded individuals,  it seems to me,  will achieve nothing against a powerful narrative that Labour will wreck the economy,  let in immigrants and threaten national security.  I have little doubt that Boris Johnson abandoned any attachment to telling the truth many years ago, but it has to be said that hes made something of a success of it for himself.  It seems that other parties have run out of road to do anything about this now, and he'll probably get his solid majority. 
Working out how to counter the willingness of populist leaders to lie daily ought to be the first priority of the opposition parties,  both here and in the USA.  Sadly,  I'm not sure either is near success,  although I hope I'm wrong. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: abarro81 on December 11, 2019, 09:33:26 am
In the end, this is really just an awful lot of words to say “if McDonnell (or just about anyone but Corbyn) was the leader, Labour would be on for a landslide”.

Every time I see/hear McDonnell give an interview I wish he were in charge instead of JC.

the reaction of the left seems to have been remarkably ineffectual

Corbyn had an open goal to smash Boris on this (truth, honesty, lies etc) at the end of the last leaders debate, and he let it slide past. Surely none of the "we love JC" brigade watched that and thought he was doing a good job?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 11, 2019, 09:33:57 am
I think  Boris will be hated for generations if he wins and as likely things will quickly turn to custard; so in that sense his personal dishonesty will come back to bite him. The tory party has had its most voter friendly wing cut off and will struggle with that (unless we go down a popularist plughole). List the big name tory MP moderates left that you can't count on one hand.

As for the latest polls the gap has closed 2 points and the youth vote and an almost certain increase tactical voting won't be factored in properly. Nor will local oddities like Broxtowe, where the split vote for Anna Soubry and a very active team on the ground makes a Labour victory there likely. The swing the tories always needed given Scotland and the S and SW seats still looks to be around 10% in those northern and midlands Labour marginals. This election is very close.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/11/tories-still-favourites-but-hung-parliament-a-real-possibly-polling-suggests
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 11, 2019, 10:02:57 am
I have a sneaking suspicion about the first paragraph of Offwidth’s last post.

I sometimes feel like Labour, or any of the opposition parties, actually don’t  want to win.

I think all the parties know that things will head south and much pain lies ahead. We all know Brexit is unavoidable and that it will not be good, short term, or within a timeframe that the average voter will appreciate. Regardless of your long term hopes Pete.

I think that’s why the Con moderates have retreated into the background, I don’t truly believe they were forced out. I think they plan a glorious return to save the party and bring back sense (that might even be their tag line, two years from now).

I think Labour don’t really want to carry the can. Too many missed opportunities, too many open goals ignored. It’s stretching credulity that they are truly that inept.

I think the LD positioned themselves as flat out Revoke, because, should they win, that would be a clear mandate. Otherwise, better to keep your hands clean and let everyone forget about that whole coalition thing.


SNP, are probably the only party with genuine grins, right now.

Government is a poison chalice, for the next five years.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 11, 2019, 12:33:25 pm
I have a sneaking suspicion about the first paragraph of Offwidth’s last post.

I sometimes feel like Labour, or any of the opposition parties, actually don’t  want to win.
...
Government is a poison chalice, for the next five years.

I know what you mean Matt, but I think you may be overestimating Labour's competence. Some of the more moderate MP s may be thinking along these lines but I really get the impression that McDonnell and Corbyn believe that they're on the brink of a socialist utopia and people will vote for it. I know polls can be unreliable but I increasingly feel that Corbyn in number ten isn't much more likely than Swinson winning the majority.

McDonnell is certainly far more politically competent than Corbyn, but I still think he's got too caught up with waxing lyrical about his ideals and forgotten a hefty dose of reality.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: abarro81 on December 11, 2019, 12:42:55 pm
Really? I've thought him excellent in interviews. The contrast between him and the Conservative guy on Andrew Marr seemed stark to me
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 11, 2019, 12:49:07 pm
The local progressive activists I know are working very hard to win seats, irrespective of the mistakes of their leadership. Word is the tory and brexit activists in contrast are very quiet in my local marginals and pissing off key locals. If that You Gov poll is right, their adjusted prediction of a tory majority of 28 seats will be very much an upper limit, for the reasons I've already discussed. The tactical voting sites show how in at least 30 seats the tories can be beaten with tactical voting on the current numbers. This would give a net no change or slight reversal given predictions in some of those N and midlands Labour  seats  (even assuming Lib Dems don't vote tactically for Labour in the less marginal seats). I suspect in practice some city Labour seats in the N and midlands wiill hold and tactical voting will not meet the full targets. Irrespective, no one can predict  the outcome with certainty and a Labour minority is still very possible.

Local hustings are available on YouTube, to judge the quality of some of these tory candidates predicted (wrongly) to win easily, as in Broxtow where I think Labour will win.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OQm1WFqK2Qc
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Somebody's Fool on December 11, 2019, 01:03:16 pm
Johnson does not have a look about him which suggests he’s cruising to victory.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 11, 2019, 01:14:23 pm
Johnson does not have a look about him which suggests he’s cruising to victory.

How can you tell?

Are you hiding in the fridge with him?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 11, 2019, 01:34:51 pm
Really? I've thought him excellent in interviews. The contrast between him and the Conservative guy on Andrew Marr seemed stark to me

I listened to his interview on the today program this morning, and he was remarkably flat and starting to sound like he was irritable and ranting. His response to being interviewed with a billionaire was better. He's undoubtedly a more coherent speaker than Corbyn, and far more astute, but he still believes in a degree of socialism that I find baffling.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 11, 2019, 01:38:42 pm
Johnson does not have a look about him which suggests he’s cruising to victory.

If only. His repeated avoiding any scrutiny and scorn for the media should really stop anyone voting for him but sadly, many people seem to like populist liars who treat women like sh*t.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/11/boris-johnson-hides-in-fridge-to-avoid-piers-morgan-interview?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: SamT on December 11, 2019, 02:06:35 pm
Johnson does not have a look about him which suggests he’s cruising to victory.

How can you tell?

Are you hiding in the fridge with him?

Two anecdotal comments from the last couple of days.

Father in law - canvasing for Labour up in Workington/Whitehaven areas - very depressed area, long forgotten by Westminster, (if they even know where it is).  Hard hit by austerity, not much in the way of job prospects/prosperity in the area. ... all voting conservative. He just cant get his head round it and no amount of common sense spoken on the door stop will sway them.  They all firmly cite Brexit and Leaving as their main reason.

Book keeper at work this morning - From North Sheffield - High Green, home of the Arctic Monkeys, normally Labour stronghold,
- "everyone round our way is voting conservative".

Again - a strong leave area I suspect
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: SA Chris on December 11, 2019, 02:22:08 pm

I sometimes feel like Labour, or any of the opposition parties, actually don’t  want to win.


Even if it all goes their way, I don't think Labour or any of the opposition parties have a chance of an outright win. As has been said before. Them having less seats than they already have, or even preventing an overall majority is a positive outcome.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: gme on December 11, 2019, 02:52:49 pm

I sometimes feel like Labour, or any of the opposition parties, actually don’t  want to win.


Even if it all goes their way, I don't think Labour or any of the opposition parties have a chance of an outright win. As has been said before. Them having less seats than they already have, or even preventing an overall majority is a positive outcome.

I really dont see why any party would want to lead us for this next Parliament as its not going to be good. Brexit will need to be sorted and i am 99% certain we will leave even if we went to a 2nd ref.

To me the Cons seem to be very aware of this so have not promised that much in the way of extra stuff above what they have already budgeted for. Labour on the other hand have promised the world and wont be able to do any of it in the next 5 years as it will probably take that long to sort out brexit if we go back to the EU then back to the country and what ever that entails. 

Whether i like it or not i believe we need to get Brexit out of the way and live with the ensuing mess before we can actually start looking at sensible ideas again.

Neither of the two main parties offer anything to the majority middle ground of the country and neither have got my vote, not that its worth shite as i live in a Tory safe zone. God help us if we end up with a hung parliament.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: abarro81 on December 11, 2019, 02:58:49 pm
Quickest way to get Brexit out of the way is to have a 2nd referendum and vote remain...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: gme on December 11, 2019, 03:04:35 pm
Quickest way to get Brexit out of the way is to have a 2nd referendum and vote remain...

Remain would loose the vote. Sorry but it would.

At the very best it might win by a similar margin and the whole roundabout we are in now would just continue.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: abarro81 on December 11, 2019, 03:23:07 pm
Remain would loose the vote. Sorry but it would.

Care to evidence that?

Top 2 results on google for "remain leave polls" suggests a notable shift (prob not so much from mind changing as old people dying and young people entering the electorate I'd guess)

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-britain-against-leaving-eu-as-poll-of-polls-says-most-now-want-to-stay-a4257476.html

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/should-the-united-kingdom-remain-a-member-of-the-european-union-or-leave-the-european-union-asked-after-the-referendum/

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: gme on December 11, 2019, 04:09:12 pm
I know a lot of people who voted to leave and very very few who have changed there mind. And also a fair few remainers that have changed there mind.

I think quite a lot of leave voters don’t say anything as they stand to get ripped apart. You place a cross on a paper in confidence.

If there is such a big swing in the leave remain vote why is it not being seen in the election polls. They all suggest  that the brexit rhetoric of Johnson is improving his majority.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: T_B on December 11, 2019, 04:38:46 pm

Father in law - canvasing for Labour up in Workington/Whitehaven areas - very depressed area, long forgotten by Westminster, (if they even know where it is).  Hard hit by austerity, not much in the way of job prospects/prosperity in the area. ... all voting conservative. He just cant get his head round it and no amount of common sense spoken on the door stop will sway them.  They all firmly cite Brexit and Leaving as their main reason.


I grew up in Whitehaven. I can fully get my head around it. For the first 18 years of my life I pretty much met 3 black people. One lad at our school of 1000 pupils and two adopted kids of my mother's friends who lived in London. Hardly any ethnic minorities climb and climbing was what I did out of school. Racism in West Cumbria is normal.

It's also tied up with Sellafied/Nuclear Power (THE major employer) and the narrative of "Great Britain" and "taking back control". The Tory MP who won the by-election in 2017 campaigned on a pro-nuclear stance.

It's very sad, but it's always been a neglected backwater, whoever has been in power.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Paul B on December 11, 2019, 06:38:41 pm
I know a lot of people who voted to leave and very very few who have changed there mind. And also a fair few remainers that have changed there mind.

And my family seem to be planning on voting against their (Lab) MP because of their (the MP's) pro remain stance despite their constituency voting otherwise. They feel it's a protest vote that wont have an effect on Labour being successful (locally and overall).

I'm aghast (my Dad was in the police, my Mum worked for the NHS). We've had many reasoned discussions now where when confronted with facts and fact checking they re-considered opinions but it's all been seemingly worthless.

Having worked in a climbing wall during a previous election it was quite upsetting to speak to many people on the way in who felt that voting was less important than the evening's AeroCap session. Please don't be that person.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Falling Down on December 11, 2019, 08:09:41 pm
If anyone can be arsed this is quite a good, if a bit long article on the choices and comparisons with previous elections.

 https://www.lrb.co.uk/v41/n23/david-runciman/bj-plus-brexit-or-jc-plus-2-refs (https://www.lrb.co.uk/v41/n23/david-runciman/bj-plus-brexit-or-jc-plus-2-refs)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: andy popp on December 11, 2019, 08:32:21 pm
If anyone can be arsed this is quite a good, if a bit long article on the choices and comparisons with previous elections.

 https://www.lrb.co.uk/v41/n23/david-runciman/bj-plus-brexit-or-jc-plus-2-refs (https://www.lrb.co.uk/v41/n23/david-runciman/bj-plus-brexit-or-jc-plus-2-refs)

"In May 1979, when Thatcher first won, polling day was ‘cold with wintry showers, especially in the north." I remember it well. I was aged 15 and lying in a bed in Bristol Royal Infirmary, having just had my appendix removed. Waking up the morning before, in intense pain, my parents, being English to the core, insisted I do my (extensive) paper round first "and then see how you feel." Within minutes of returning home I was in an ambulance hurtling toward Bristol. I properly came to sometime on the afternoon of Election Day, just in time to start listening to the results come in and for my heart to start sinking.

Godspeed everyone.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 11, 2019, 08:33:00 pm
I know there is resistance to the notion of BBC bias, as an institution, amongst UKB posters, but...

Can we agree that one of their loudest voices, is, actually, pretty bloody partisan?

Criminal? (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/laura-kuenssberg-bbc-postal-votes-electoral-commission-a4311261.html)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on December 11, 2019, 08:41:59 pm
It’s certainly not something she should have reported by the sound of it, but is it a partisan statement? If you were a Labour supporter and read that would you not be more motivated to get out to vote with as many like minded people as possible?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: winhill on December 11, 2019, 10:31:58 pm

The Fail is on top mad form reporting the idiotic Simon Wiesenthal Centre's label of Corbyn's Labour as the biggest world threat to jews... almost as if Israel is not surrounded by states that would love to destroy it and facing arab terrorism within.
Corbyn's been on the SWC list of threats for four years, since he became leader of the opposition. His highest previous position was second, in 2017, the other election year. Can you see how that works? He rises up the list as there becomes a chance he'll be Prime Minister. It unthinkable that a leader of a G7 country could be antisemitic, can you imagine the power that would create?

Labour created the EHRC to investigate racism and other inequalities, the only political party it has had to investigate was the BNP, til Corbyn happened along. Thousands of cases have been uncovered, the New Statesman has said he's unfit to be PM and the Guardian editorial today is only just short of it:

"Mr Corbyn’s own unpopularity could also scupper Labour in this election. His obdurate handling of the antisemitism crisis has disrupted the message of hope. Anything less than zero tolerance against racism tarnishes Labour’s credentials as an anti-racist organisation. The pain and hurt within the Jewish community, and the damage to Labour, are undeniable and shaming."

Try to imagine how this looks to those outside of the country, for orgs like the SWC or the ADL who expend their entire energies following and measuring antisemitism.

What, exactly, is the scale of the threat from the Leader of a G7 nation? If you don't know you can't tell Jews it's worth the risk.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Bradders on December 12, 2019, 08:57:20 am
I know there is resistance to the notion of BBC bias, as an institution, amongst UKB posters, but...

Can we agree that one of their loudest voices, is, actually, pretty bloody partisan?

Criminal? (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/laura-kuenssberg-bbc-postal-votes-electoral-commission-a4311261.html)

No... she's a reporter and it seems to me she's reported a piece of information she's been given and presumably therefore believes to be accurate. It doesn't sound like something she's made up to me. That's not partisan at all.

Was doing so illegal? Possibly. But that doesn't make it partisan.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Bradders on December 12, 2019, 08:58:36 am
Anyway, if anyone wants some light relief today I'd encourage you to peruse the full list of parties standing candidates in the election. Some cracking names in there :lol:
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 12, 2019, 09:14:21 am
I think it was 2005 or 2010 that a man changed his name by deed poll to stand as Mr We Beat The Scum One Nil in Leeds Central. I wonder what he's doing right now.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 12, 2019, 09:19:37 am
I know there is resistance to the notion of BBC bias, as an institution, amongst UKB posters, but...

Can we agree that one of their loudest voices, is, actually, pretty bloody partisan?

Criminal? (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/laura-kuenssberg-bbc-postal-votes-electoral-commission-a4311261.html)

No... she's a reporter and it seems to me she's reported a piece of information she's been given and presumably therefore believes to be accurate. It doesn't sound like something she's made up to me. That's not partisan at all.

Was doing so illegal? Possibly. But that doesn't make it partisan.

I'd wholly agree with that. Straight afterwards she points out that postal votes would favour the conservative voting demographic anyway. Plus, anecdotally,  all you have ever heard for the last couple of months is people saying that they couldn't vote for Corbyn,  although they like labour's policies. 
I hope I'm wrong but I can't see Labour doing well at all,  as the referendum proves,  3 word slogans work.  Labour's is more than 5, and I feel that many people will have stopped listening by then.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Bradders on December 12, 2019, 09:49:34 am
We'll see. Currently I have my head happily buried in my echo chamber of anti-Tory family, friends and acquaintances and can therefore see nothing but Conservative oblivion and a glorious progressive alliance of remain  :)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 12, 2019, 09:56:42 am
I know there is resistance to the notion of BBC bias, as an institution, amongst UKB posters, but...

Can we agree that one of their loudest voices, is, actually, pretty bloody partisan?

Criminal? (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/laura-kuenssberg-bbc-postal-votes-electoral-commission-a4311261.html)

No... she's a reporter and it seems to me she's reported a piece of information she's been given and presumably therefore believes to be accurate. It doesn't sound like something she's made up to me. That's not partisan at all.

Was doing so illegal? Possibly. But that doesn't make it partisan.

I firmly and strongly disagree, she is highly experienced and fully aware of both the implication of her report (in terms of influence of the vote) and of the legality of the report and of why such reporting is banned.
Or are we pretending she’s a rookie, who has not already been disciplined for making partisan reports and is frequently, and unarguably, very close to being partisan, whilst managing to flutter around without actually doing so, with rather a complex verbal Ballet.

So, when she makes such a blatant statement, at such a crucial moment, I refuse to give her the benefit of the doubt...

But, hey, I could probably write an equally strident defence of her and journalistic freedom. After all, I’m not suggesting she’s the slightest bit stupid.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on December 12, 2019, 12:57:05 pm
Anyone care to stick their neck out with a prediction then?

I'm enjoying the sense of denial before finding out that the Tories have taken 350-360 seats.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: T_B on December 12, 2019, 01:16:29 pm
You haven't been reading Toby's posts then?  :lol:
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Bradders on December 12, 2019, 01:29:30 pm
sense of denial

Very much my mindset atm haha

Hung parliament though, Tory's on 305-310 or so, Labour on 240-250, Lib Dems on 30, SNP on 35-40.

I firmly and strongly disagree

Fair enough. I think you're overestimating her level of influence though.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nutty on December 12, 2019, 01:58:30 pm
The optimistic part of me hopes the reports of high turnouts and the prominent promotion of tactical voting mean that there will be a hung parliament.

The pessimistic part dreads waking up in the morning.

Most hoped for result? Boris losing Uxbridge & Ruislip by one vote as he didn't vote in his constituency.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 12, 2019, 02:32:40 pm
I vote in the morning, with the Bunker not opening until 12.
They shifted our polling station to a larger venue, because they were expecting a larger than normal turnout. I don’t know why they expect that, we’ll see. I have that paranoid suspicion, that it’s an attempt to hide the polling station from the inattentive...
(I’m kidding).
Lots of protests on social media about postal votes not turning up, for some of the rural voters in the ward.
Polling was quiet when I went in at 10:30. All elderly. 49 year old me was probably at least 15 years younger than the next voter...

Prediction:

Tory majority. Not as big as they thought they’d get, but enough.

I think, five years from now, things will be very different. Just on the demographics alone.
I also think the NHS crisis, Climate, poverty, economic hardship issues will be frank and beyond spin, five years from now and it will be a very different picture.

Or, the next Tory government will bring prosperity and massive economic growth, smash crime into distant memory, end racism and make us a world dominating force to  beat all others.

Also, the Tooth fairy, shall be bringing gold sovereigns, wrapped in Ł50 notes...


Quote from a friend’s post:

“Oh the weather outside is frightful
But the Tories are still just spiteful
And since we’ve no other hope
Go and vote, go and vote, go and vote”

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: SA Chris on December 12, 2019, 02:50:48 pm
As the wise man Wayne Campbell said "yeah and monkeys might fly out of my butt"
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: andy popp on December 12, 2019, 08:38:07 pm
Everyone/anyone staying up? I guess so, though I doubt I will be.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 12, 2019, 08:47:45 pm
Everyone/anyone staying up? I guess so, though I doubt I will be.

Yeah. I’ll stay up for the exit poll at 10. If it’s <10 Tory Majority I’ll stay up and see what happens.

If it’s more than 10 I’ll shout fuck off a few times and go to bed chuntering.

Lots of reports of very long ques at polling stations this evening. Which bodes well for the labour vote I think... that’s me clutching at straws though.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 12, 2019, 08:47:55 pm
I thought about it, but, ultimately, what’s the point?

This is the ultimate pessimist’s dream scenario.
Tomorrow I shall either wake up to a pleasant surprise or I shall have the smug satisfaction of correctly predicting doom upon the land.

Win win, basically.




Actually, it’s pretty shit and I can’t be bothered. I voted LD.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 12, 2019, 08:51:24 pm
From the Indy “
But if the exit poll predicts a Conservative majority of 30 or more, the final result is very unlikely to be a hung parliament. Anything short of that means that we cannot be sure of the outcome, and will have to stay up all night to find out.”
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: gme on December 12, 2019, 09:06:18 pm
I will be up for a fair bit. I always do, best thing on telly every time.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: andy popp on December 12, 2019, 09:15:37 pm
I'm a bit tired and a bit screwed by being an hour ahead but have to make it through the next 45 minutes at least.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Bradders on December 12, 2019, 09:20:59 pm
From the Indy “
But if the exit poll predicts a Conservative majority of 30 or more, the final result is very unlikely to be a hung parliament. Anything short of that means that we cannot be sure of the outcome, and will have to stay up all night to find out go to bed and work it all out in the morning.”

Fixed
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 12, 2019, 10:02:57 pm
Fuck fuck fuck fuck.

Huge Tory majority forecast.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: winhill on December 12, 2019, 10:03:38 pm
Exit poll 368 Tories, 191 Labour, SNP 55!

Deep shit
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: gme on December 12, 2019, 10:04:54 pm
Wow.

I am not a Corbyn fan but had no idea that would happen.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 12, 2019, 10:05:15 pm
Well, that’s shit.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Davo on December 12, 2019, 10:17:27 pm
I guess the Conservatives got their message through to the majority of people who don’t follow politics. I also think that unfortunately Corbyn is pretty toxic to large numbers of people. Actual policies seem to have little impact on how people vote...

Christ if those numbers are correct there must be seats swinging to the Tories that have always been Labour!!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 12, 2019, 10:24:53 pm
Normally I love to smugly tell people that I told them so. Now I'm just going to tell them that I told them so.

Make no mistake. Momentum and Corbyn have led us to this and it's time for them to fuck off.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on December 12, 2019, 10:35:20 pm
Et tu Brutus?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 12, 2019, 10:37:27 pm
Well that’s Brexit for certain then.

😢
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 12, 2019, 10:37:39 pm
I hope I'm wrong but I can't see Labour doing well at all,  as the referendum proves,  3 word slogans work.  Labour's is more than 5, and I feel that many people will have stopped listening by then.

Hmmm....

Only a year to wait until a no deal brexit now, along with some regressive crime and punishment legislation.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: andy popp on December 12, 2019, 10:40:55 pm
I guess the Conservatives got their message through to the majority of people who don’t follow politics. I also think that unfortunately Corbyn is pretty toxic to large numbers of people.

These two things are exactly the same thing.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Bonjoy on December 12, 2019, 10:44:31 pm
I hope I'm wrong but I can't see Labour doing well at all,  as the referendum proves,  3 word slogans work.  Labour's is more than 5, and I feel that many people will have stopped listening by then.

Hmmm....

Only a year to wait until a no deal brexit now, along with some regressive crime and punishment legislation.
And the criminalization of trespass.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: seankenny on December 12, 2019, 11:00:11 pm
Normally I love to smugly tell people that I told them so. Now I'm just going to tell them that I told them so.

Make no mistake. Momentum and Corbyn have led us to this and it's time for them to fuck off.

It's going to be someone else's fault, tho, isn't it?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Yossarian on December 12, 2019, 11:12:36 pm
They’re already blaming it all on Brexit, rather than accepting that it’s a rejection of Corbyn / McDonnell. It would be nice to think that some moderates like Yvette Cooper and Keir Starmer might end up in charge, but I imagine it’s all going to get very messy and nasty.

Our Tory candidate - Sally Ann Hart - (Amber Rudd’s last minute replacement) just squeaked in with the bigots’ triple header - insulting disabled people plus a bit of antisemitism and Islamophobia.  If she wins tonight I’ll be pretty furious. The bloke that rang the doorbell this afternoon to ask whether I’d voted for her was like a BNP-lite extra from the Football Factory.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 12, 2019, 11:17:42 pm
Don’t be silly. It’s Tony Blair’s fault!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on December 12, 2019, 11:34:41 pm
They’re already blaming it all on Brexit, rather than accepting that it’s a rejection of Corbyn / McDonnell. It would be nice to think that some moderates like Yvette Cooper and Keir Starmer might end up in charge, but I imagine it’s all going to get very messy and nasty.

I rather suspect project Corbyn will continue without him when he bows out and that his faction will have thoroughly tightened its grip on the power structures within Labour. I would not assume a change of direction, or any realistic sense of the votes they need from the political centre to get elected.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: gme on December 12, 2019, 11:35:56 pm
Labour just lost Blyth. This is about as labour as you could be but confirms what I thought the sentiment in the NE was. Pro brexit anti Corbyn.

This place has been labour since the dawn of time.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Yossarian on December 12, 2019, 11:42:35 pm
They’re already blaming it all on Brexit, rather than accepting that it’s a rejection of Corbyn / McDonnell. It would be nice to think that some moderates like Yvette Cooper and Keir Starmer might end up in charge, but I imagine it’s all going to get very messy and nasty.

I rather suspect project Corbyn will continue without him when he bows out and that his faction will have thoroughly tightened its grip on the power structures within Labour. I would not assume a change of direction, or any realistic sense of the votes they need from the political centre to get elected.

I completely agree. I’d be entirely unsurprised to hear that Rebecca Long-Bailey - McDonnell’s protege by all accounts - is the most likely replacement.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Mr E S Capegoat on December 12, 2019, 11:43:36 pm
Remember this guy. JCorbot. Roasted on ukb about 6 months ago. Now facing a second roasting. History repeats itself huh

https://youtu.be/3ASNyGUtNUk
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: James Malloch on December 13, 2019, 07:30:25 am
What a depressing result. Inevitable, but utterly depressing.

A campaign with so many lies and underhand tactics, a man who's racist remarks have been laughed off will now lead the country with a decent majority. A manifesto which doesn't mention food banks and barely manages to get the word poverty into it's 64 pages. A Brexit aim which no one believes is achievable in the timeframes set-up.

The only slight hope is that Corbyn will be stepping down and hopefully someone can reunite the Labour party to be a real challenger in 5 years time. And any mess created by Brexit will be entirely on the conservatives hands. However I fear that no matter how it goes, they'll run another campaign of smears and untruths and twist the message once more.

What a shit day.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 13, 2019, 07:51:39 am
They’re already blaming it all on Brexit, rather than accepting that it’s a rejection of Corbyn / McDonnell. It would be nice to think that some moderates like Yvette Cooper and Keir Starmer might end up in charge, but I imagine it’s all going to get very messy and nasty.

Our Tory candidate - Sally Ann Hart - (Amber Rudd’s last minute replacement) just squeaked in with the bigots’ triple header - insulting disabled people plus a bit of antisemitism and Islamophobia.  If she wins tonight I’ll be pretty furious. The bloke that rang the doorbell this afternoon to ask whether I’d voted for her was like a BNP-lite extra from the Football Factory.

Ian Lavery and McDonnell just on the today programme.  Its gobsmacking that they just don't get it. McDonnell said that 'Labour won on the policy'. If they continue with a hard left Labour,  I think they'll lose even more seats next time. 

Pretty depressing all round,  really.  Particularly that the Greens didn't do better. Looks like people prefer SUVs to actually believing in climate change to the extent they'll do anything about it. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Davo on December 13, 2019, 08:01:06 am
To be honest Toby. This was nothing to do with their policies. I don’t think anything in terms of actual policies cut through. Basically it was Brexit and being anti- corbyn. I think they would likely have been fine in terms of policy with another leader. They were always going to struggle with brexit though.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 13, 2019, 08:15:24 am
One of my more stridently left leaning friends, wrote a long FB tirade, decrying all of us “traitors” who voted for left leaning parties, other than Labour. It’s all our fault and all the other parties should be banned. We should be a two party state, apparently, with a simple choice, because people are too thick to pick for themselves (she didn‘t phrase the last line that way, but it was clearly what she meant, she used phrases like “confused”).

And they wonder why they lost.

Except they don’t wonder, do they.

Well, what comes next is necessary.

Personally, I think we’re in for a hard few years.

In truth, I don’t think I will be. I think what’s coming will be irritating to me and mine, but for many, many others, life is going to get much worse. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 13, 2019, 08:18:16 am
As James identifies the one positive (it’s a teeny one) is that the Tory party now totally own brexit.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 13, 2019, 08:19:27 am
Matt - some of the few still believe the emporer is still wearing clothes...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Duma on December 13, 2019, 08:22:01 am
I think Dodds losing his seat is a positive too.

And Goldsmith, he can fuck right off.

Chances of the UK being only 2 nations by the time this is all sorted?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 13, 2019, 08:27:42 am
To be honest Toby. This was nothing to do with their policies. I don’t think anything in terms of actual policies cut through. Basically it was Brexit and being anti- corbyn. I think they would likely have been fine in terms of policy with another leader. They were always going to struggle with brexit though.

I disagree I'm afraid,  I think this is short sighted. If British people were in any way in favour of a hard left agenda,  I think more of them would have voted for it.  It doesn't matter whether I like this fact or not, but Blair won more of the biggest majorities since ww2 than any other PM. Two biggest defeats for Labour in the last century,  both hard left wing party leaders,  Corbyn and Foot.

As James identifies the one positive (it’s a teeny one) is that the Tory party now totally own brexit.

I think that they'll have to become the sort of party that many of their traditional voters really won't like. I can't see the home counties getting along well with don valley and workington. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on December 13, 2019, 08:39:41 am
Wow fucking hell, had to drive up to Scotland this morning, so just about stayed up for exit poll, was hoping that was somehow way off!

I guess that’s any debate over Brexit settled now...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 13, 2019, 08:55:05 am
As James identifies the one positive (it’s a teeny one) is that the Tory party now totally own brexit.

Absolutely.

I have a terrible internal conflict going on.

I am sure Brexit will be bad for the country and the poorer sections of society in particular. Regardless of any long term benefits, Pete, it’s going to hurt for the next five years. Real people, will pay a real price. I feel fucking awful about that (if you read back, you’ll se that has always been my biggest gripe about the whole thing, I just don’t think it’s worth it).
I am aware, however, that it probably doesn’t include me. I’m already back to a top 10% tax payer and (barring the unforeseen) in my new job, I’ll be joining the 5% again. Add to that, I can up and leave. Canada, Mid east etc, have always held gainful employment for me, it’s just moving four kids of school age and leaving Graves behind is harder than it sounds. But, if needs must...

But, hundreds of thousands in the UK are not so lucky.

On the other hand.

I think this is great.

Part of me, anyway. The cold, logical side. The Engineer.

Because, I’m pretty sure I can see the outline of the end of Tory rule and possibly the crippling of the party (I still think, the main opposition parties were reluctant to try in this election, for reasons of Brexit ownership).
I think Bojo is going to become incredibly unpopular soon, with no significant opposition to blame.
I think people are already hurting and Bojo gave them someone to blame (foreigners essentially) and that’s always an easy sell.
Now, he will lose that angle.
Now it’s all on him.
Good.
Because he’s not up to it.
Because, ultimately, Unicorns don’t exist.
Because he’s now the salesman who has been bigging up his product beyond reason and now the purchaser is unwrapping the box. Let’s face it, most of the best features don’t work or don’t exist. The customer is going to think it’s their own inability to operate the product, at first, then start to talk to the other customers, then realise nobody can use the useless brick. Then try to return it and ask for their money back.
Except they cannot do that.

Then they’ll get angry.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: GazM on December 13, 2019, 09:02:12 am
Wow fucking hell, had to drive up to Scotland this morning
You tempted to stay up here on the safe side of the border Tim?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nutty on December 13, 2019, 09:02:47 am
Pretty depressing all round,  really.  Particularly that the Greens didn't do better. Looks like people prefer SUVs to actually believing in climate change to the extent they'll do anything about it.

It's a wonder the Greens did as well as they did under the circumstances. Not contesting some seats, the push for tactical voting, a system that discourages voting for smaller parties. I wanted to vote Green, but there was a chance to unseat the Conservative MP in our constituency and that would only have been possible for Labour so they begrudgingly got my vote. To top it all, you get 2.7% of the vote translating to 0.15% of the MPs in our fantastic democracy.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: andy popp on December 13, 2019, 09:03:08 am
Forget everything about people rejecting the left and concentrate on people embracing the right. Let's credit people with making meaningful votes; a lot of people really like this shit.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nutty on December 13, 2019, 09:16:40 am
Johnson is already stating that the election demonstrates that Brexit is the "irrefutable, irresistible, unarguable" will of the people.

Voting percentage for Brexit supporting parties (Cons, Brexit, DUP): 46.4%. Unarguable?





Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: abarro81 on December 13, 2019, 09:21:43 am
What's the cheapest way to join the Labour Party to get a vote in any upcoming leadership contest?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Yossarian on December 13, 2019, 09:31:52 am
What's the cheapest way to join the Labour Party to get a vote in any upcoming leadership contest?

Entryist scum...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: gme on December 13, 2019, 09:37:15 am
I am not surprised at the result but am at the size of it. Brexit is a major factor but the labour leadership and proposals really do have to take a large part of the blame as well.

As i said in my post yesterday the traditional labour supporters i know in the NE and through work cannot stand Corbyn and predominately voted leave and i think the results show this to be true.

The labour party under Corbyn whilst having very admirable ideology has become a middle class, university love in that is as far removed from the people its trying to help as the Torys and they just told them so.

I am actually quite glad that Boris has got a large majority and can "get Brexit done" whatever that means as we need to move on from the whole mess him and Cameron created, deal with what we have left and start focusing on more important stuff.

I sincerely wish we were remaining but were not and i guess we just need to accept it.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: James Malloch on December 13, 2019, 09:38:16 am
I’ve emailed my Local MP (Barrow and Furness constituency) for the first time. It’s a poor and deprived area which I think would have stood a chance under Labour, but not under Conservative. I’ll be keeping a close eye on his voting and how it impacts Cumbria.

Bitter? Absolutely.

However, given the number of lies and misleading statements over the last few years. I feel entitled to my bitterness.

I won’t be hit by (m)any changes, I’m well off and and the conservative policies will help me further. But I don’t need help, others do. Corbyn was too radical, but I hoped he would be tempered by whoever helped prop him up. We’re going to have to wait for the much needed changes that this country deserves..
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: SamT on December 13, 2019, 09:56:44 am
Pretty much what James said - ^^^

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on December 13, 2019, 10:00:02 am
Wow fucking hell, had to drive up to Scotland this morning
You tempted to stay up here on the safe side of the border Tim?

If indyref2 results in reenntry into EU I’ll be joining the queue at the border for sure!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 13, 2019, 10:13:42 am
What's the cheapest way to join the Labour Party to get a vote in any upcoming leadership contest?

This is not a bad plan.

Perhaps, instead of moaning about how unrepresentative they have become, or how nice a progressive coalition would be, we should be actually taking over the LP. Tactical voting does not resolve FPTP.

The “popular” vote is nowhere near as depressing as the actual outcome.
So Andy, take heart! ‘Tis still the same number of rightwingers  we’ve always had, ~50%, with a few ditherers in the middle.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: nic mullin on December 13, 2019, 10:56:53 am
Forget everything about people rejecting the left and concentrate on people embracing the right. Let's credit people with making meaningful votes; a lot of people really like this shit.

If the pro-conservative posts I see on my social media are anything to go by, exactly this. A lot of people seem to want brexit (and the sooner the better), dislike immigrants, and hate being taxed. The lazy/feckless/deserving poor and "make criminals afraid again" narratives are very strong.

Climate, poverty, inequality, education and health do not seem to be major concerns outside of the centre/left.

Much as the opposition parties are weak and haven't got their messages across, I think that where we are is still very much because of the financial crisis and the refugee crisis which came shortly after. This has been easy money for the hard right. Selling centre or centre-left wing policies to people feeling the pinch when there is an easy scapegoat to blame is much harder.

We'll get new opposition leaders, and it'll probably help (a bit), but while living standards are being squeezed (and with Brexit and the global impact of China's economy slowing down, I think that's here to stay), right wing populism will be very attractive to a lot of people.

Feeling pretty despondent today to be honest.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 13, 2019, 11:17:20 am
Forget everything about people rejecting the left and concentrate on people embracing the right. Let's credit people with making meaningful votes; a lot of people really like this shit.

If the pro-conservative posts I see on my social media are anything to go by, exactly this. A lot of people seem to want brexit (and the sooner the better), dislike immigrants, and hate being taxed. The lazy/feckless/deserving poor and "make criminals afraid again" narratives are very strong.

Climate, poverty, inequality, education and health do not seem to be major concerns outside of the centre/left.

Much as the opposition parties are weak and haven't got their messages across, I think that where we are is still very much because of the financial crisis and the refugee crisis which came shortly after. This has been easy money for the hard right. Selling centre or centre-left wing policies to people feeling the pinch when there is an easy scapegoat to blame is much harder.

We'll get new opposition leaders, and it'll probably help (a bit), but while living standards are being squeezed (and with Brexit and the global impact of China's economy slowing down, I think that's here to stay), right wing populism will be very attractive to a lot of people.

Feeling pretty despondent today to be honest.

A convincing argument, but I'd still argue that centre or centre left polices have far more scope to make successful political inroads in this situation than radical socialism.

I agree that Alex's suggestion of joining Labour to vote for a more sensible leader is a good one.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on December 13, 2019, 11:20:32 am
Anyone care to stick their neck out with a prediction then?

I'm enjoying the sense of denial before finding out that the Tories have taken 350-360 seats.


Never been so unhappy to be proved right.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 13, 2019, 11:35:34 am
I joined Labour to vote in the leadership contest ahead of the Corbyn-Smith run off. I quit when I was not prepared to be associated any longer with a party that refused to deal with its institutional antisemitism.

Hello, boys! I'm baaaaack!
https://join.labour.org.uk/?utm_source=website&utm_medium=actionmenu


Incidentally, my brother is a member of Labour, the Conservatives, and the Lib Dems, precisely so that he can vote in leadership contests.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 13, 2019, 11:46:45 am
The “popular” vote is nowhere near as depressing as the actual outcome.
So Andy, take heart! ‘Tis still the same number of rightwingers  we’ve always had, ~50%, with a few ditherers in the middle

I have some numbers now.

Ignoring independents and fringe:

Lab, LD and SNP combined: 14,069,167 votes.

Cons: 13,905,250 votes.

This country is almost exactly split down the centre.

This has nothing to do with policies per se. It’s just simple human nature. It’s not a tidal wave of far right ideology, it’s exactly what it’s always been. The FPTP election makes it look like a landslide, but ultimately, it’s utterly equivocal.

How unlikely is it that that middle ground will shift over the nextfive years?

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: webbo on December 13, 2019, 11:48:27 am
There is a thread on Bikeradar , a cycling forum in case you haven’t guessed. Which is “ Join the Labour Party and save your country “
On this thread die hard Tories have encouraged other Tories to join the Labour Party to vote for Jeremy Corbyn so as to make  Labour unelectable.
It appears to have worked.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 13, 2019, 11:52:18 am
I joined Labour to vote in the leadership contest ahead of the Corbyn-Smith run off. I quit when I was not prepared to be associated any longer with a party that refused to deal with its institutional antisemitism.

Hello, boys! I'm baaaaack!
https://join.labour.org.uk/?utm_source=website&utm_medium=actionmenu


Incidentally, my brother is a member of Labour, the Conservatives, and the Lib Dems, precisely so that he can vote in leadership contests.

If any of those parties found out he would be expelled. It’s explicit in the t and c’s that you can’t also be a member of the other parties.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Yossarian on December 13, 2019, 12:04:53 pm
The people telling me to vote Labour on social media yesterday were (off the top of my head) an bestselling novelist and ex music industry A&R executive, a graffiti artist who travels around the world first class doing murals for Nike and Netflix, various award-winning graphic designers, a Guardian cookery writer based in Rome, some Vice journalists, and Steve Coogan.

The people who live near me (in Hastings) who I know voted Tory include our cleaner (20something single mum), our neighbour - a train driver, and the electrician who rewired our kitchen a fortnight ago...

This I think provides an excellent demonstration of where Corbyn’s head-in-the-sand self-indulgent you’re-a-Blairite-get-in-the-sea nonsense gets you. The Alan Johnson clip going around this morning is totally on the money.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Yossarian on December 13, 2019, 12:06:01 pm
 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2019/dec/13/i-want-momentum-gone-alan-johnson-slams-labour-left-video (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2019/dec/13/i-want-momentum-gone-alan-johnson-slams-labour-left-video)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 13, 2019, 12:21:19 pm
I joined Labour to vote in the leadership contest ahead of the Corbyn-Smith run off. I quit when I was not prepared to be associated any longer with a party that refused to deal with its institutional antisemitism.

Hello, boys! I'm baaaaack!
https://join.labour.org.uk/?utm_source=website&utm_medium=actionmenu


Incidentally, my brother is a member of Labour, the Conservatives, and the Lib Dems, precisely so that he can vote in leadership contests.

If any of those parties found out he would be expelled. It’s explicit in the t and c’s that you can’t also be a member of the other parties.

Indeed. But GDPR makes it very clear that the only lawful way that somebody might be exposed is by admission. They can't share membership lists.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on December 13, 2019, 12:41:05 pm
Anyone care to stick their neck out with a prediction then?

I'm enjoying the sense of denial before finding out that the Tories have taken 350-360 seats.


Never been so unhappy to be proved right.

Did you put some money on this one?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: gme on December 13, 2019, 12:45:31 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/13/five-reasons-why-labour-lost-the-election

I ignore point one as this is the bit of politics i really dont like now.

However point 2 re the manifesto i think really hits the nail on the head. They just kept adding and adding to a list of give aways which made it look like they were clutching at straws. Waspi women and free broadband the two most obvious.
They should have just stuck with two or three with one of them being there focus as they would have had to in reality if they had won.

I cant believe Jon Lansman actually agrees to this, he was a big part of writing it. Him and Momentum should really be in the no.1 position in my eyes.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 13, 2019, 01:24:41 pm
I heard Momentum are rebranding as Entropy.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: James Malloch on December 13, 2019, 01:47:26 pm
Is there anywhere which lists the promises made by the conservatives during the election campaign? Obviously there is the manifesto but much of that is vague.

There were many things said which weren't in there and it would be great to have a list to keep track of words vs. Action.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on December 13, 2019, 02:08:31 pm
Anyone care to stick their neck out with a prediction then?

I'm enjoying the sense of denial before finding out that the Tories have taken 350-360 seats.


Never been so unhappy to be proved right.

Did you put some money on this one?

Yes, but not much - a small "emotional hedge" to make me feel better if it happened. It didn't, and I'll be donating the proceeds to a suitably anti-Tory charity.

This thread is the best / soberest reflection on that state of affairs in the Labour party at the moment:

https://twitter.com/DPWF0/status/1205256613814099968 (https://twitter.com/DPWF0/status/1205256613814099968)


Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Bradders on December 13, 2019, 02:09:46 pm
Is there anywhere which lists the promises made by the conservatives during the election campaign? Obviously there is the manifesto but much of that is vague.

There were many things said which weren't in there and it would be great to have a list to keep track of words vs. Action.

Wasn't that kind of the point of their whole campaign? Keep it simple, don't promise anything of real substance and GET BREXIT DONE.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 13, 2019, 02:18:25 pm
Would anyone care to dissemble this? Can't help but feel that it's not entirely differentiating the various factors (but my stats is rusty). For instance, Putney voted heavily to Remain.
https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1205393428932186113
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nutty on December 13, 2019, 02:59:12 pm
The R-squared value of 0.62 is the 'coefficient of determination' and in this case implies that that the linear model shown on the graph explains 62% of the variation of the outcome (the swing to/from Conservative).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: James Malloch on December 13, 2019, 03:06:23 pm
The reports are that the final majority is 80 seats (365 won). However I though that there were 650 mps, 4 speakers and 7 Sinn Fein. Therefore 320 seats required for a majority. How does one get to the 80 figure?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 13, 2019, 03:32:36 pm
So, we use Penisula business services, for contracts etc etc and this is their take on the prospective changes coming, as regards employment law:

An extension of minimum wage rights to younger workers.

Wider flexible working rights.

A new right to ‘neo-natal leave’ for new parents of sick babies.

A new right to time off for employees who have caring responsibilities outside of work.

More rights for zero hours workers and others on unstable contracts.

But that’s pretty much all the Cons promised on that front, apparently.



Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nutty on December 13, 2019, 03:36:36 pm
The reports are that the final majority is 80 seats (365 won). However I though that there were 650 mps, 4 speakers and 7 Sinn Fein. Therefore 320 seats required for a majority. How does one get to the 80 figure?
A typo?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 13, 2019, 03:49:03 pm
The reports are that the final majority is 80 seats (365 won). However I though that there were 650 mps, 4 speakers and 7 Sinn Fein. Therefore 320 seats required for a majority. How does one get to the 80 figure?
A typo?

I think its 324 to have a majority. So if the Tories get 365.  648 - 365 = 283 seats left over
365-283 = 82,
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 13, 2019, 03:51:16 pm
Party[8]   Seats   Votes
Total   Gains   Losses   Net +/-   % seats   Total votes   % votes   Change
SNP   48   13   0   Increase13   81.36   1,242,380   45   Increase8.1
Conservative   6   0   7   Decrease7   10.17   692,939   25.1   Decrease3.5
Labour   1   0   6   Decrease6   1.69   511,838   18.6   Decrease2.8
Liberal Democrats   4   1   1   Steady   6.77   263,417   9.5   Increase2.8
Scottish Green   0   0   0   Steady   —   28,122   1   Increase0.8
Brexit Party   0   0   0      —   13,243   0.5   Increase0.5
UKIP   0   0   0   Steady   —   3,303   0.1   Decrease0.1
Others   0   0   0   Steady   —   3,819   0.1   Increase0.1
2,759,061‬   68.1   Increase1.6


If you can read that, SNP took more of the popular vote than the Cons and Lab combined, in Scotland.

So, a second Indy ref would seem odds on.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 13, 2019, 03:59:03 pm
Politics can GO AND FUCK OFF for a good few months/years.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: James Malloch on December 13, 2019, 04:17:36 pm
The reports are that the final majority is 80 seats (365 won). However I though that there were 650 mps, 4 speakers and 7 Sinn Fein. Therefore 320 seats required for a majority. How does one get to the 80 figure?
A typo?

I think its 324 to have a majority. So if the Tories get 365.  648 - 365 = 283 seats left over
365-283 = 82,

Thanks. Though I assumed a majority would refer to the voting majority - I.e. amount over half the voting numbers. But I guess that if everyone toes the party line the majority is c.80 in that way.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 13, 2019, 05:55:34 pm
One last stat, that will be crucial in five years time.

According to the ONS and Statista in 2018, 15.83M of the UK population were aged 60 or over, or more than the total number of Con votes, UK wide.

Over the next five years, ~11M youths will come of voting age.

The biggest single tranche/demographic  (4.7M) of current 50-55 year olds, will be hitting that age then. So, looking at how they voted now, will be important.
Remember, they will be staring down a greatly raised retirement age, so likely won’t “feel so old”.
Likely to be healthier too.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: joeisidle on December 13, 2019, 06:04:59 pm
Whilst we're all sharing narratives and Guardian articles, here's the one that struck a chord with me, particularly in the way it argues why this shouldn't be a simple 'Corbynism vs the centre ground' debate;
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/13/labour-why-lost-jeremy-corbyn-brexit-media

Corbyn was, ultimately, a bit of a disaster. But whilst we're scrabbling around for solutions I still think it's important that Labour loss of control under more centrist leaders started in 2010 (not to mention what happened to the Lib Dems last night)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Ged on December 13, 2019, 06:06:21 pm
That's some interesting facts, but seems to get said every time. We now have 3 years worth of supposedly enraged young people who have become eligible to vote since the referendum, but doesn't seem to have made much difference. Do people's political views change as they get older?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 13, 2019, 06:18:51 pm
The enraged youth are generally in metropolitan areas whereas rural/post industrial towns are where the old gits live. So unless you can get the woke youth to head back to Stockton/Workington/Blythe from London where they have fled, it’ll be the same.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on December 13, 2019, 06:23:58 pm
Matt, aren’t people’s voting habits shown to move right with age, and as such what people are voting for now may not be a good indication of what they will vote when older?

Assume it’s too early for any by age breakdown of this result, but will be interesting to see how much yoof went with Johnson.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 13, 2019, 06:37:41 pm
Matt, aren’t people’s voting habits shown to move right with age, and as such what people are voting for now may not be a good indication of what they will vote when older?

Assume it’s too early for any by age breakdown of this result, but will be interesting to see how much yoof went with Johnson.

I’m wondering. I’m thinking about relative fitness levels and health and how that affects world view.
I’m thinking about the very different childhoods of my generation and that of those 5 or more years older.
For instance, Empire was long gone and most WW2 veterans too old to feature in my non-family socialisation. I’m pretty sure we were the last Generation to have the Saturday matinee war movie (B&W), a thing that slid into irrelevance by my early teens anyway, having been supplanted by far more irreverent fare, such as Kelly’s Heroes etc before losing out to Veitnam self flagellation.

From my age onward, life was very very different.
The ~3M angry youths  if the last 3 years? Not enough to dent anything, I suspect. Now, give it another 5 and a few more Boomers shuffling off... 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Ged on December 13, 2019, 07:25:32 pm
My school held a mock election this week. The green party won by quite a long way, and this is a school in a massively Conservative area. I find it hard to believe that in 15 years time this will be a green constituency. I think that enraged youth often change their minds. Don't know why. Losing the innocence of simple ideals? Bogged down in money? Cynicism? The reality of actually casting a vote and bowing to family pressures/traditions?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on December 13, 2019, 07:31:41 pm
Where's Nostradamus..?
(Offwidth)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: James Malloch on December 13, 2019, 07:32:34 pm
My school held a mock election this week. The green party won by quite a long way, and this is a school in a massively Conservative area. I find it hard to believe that in 15 years time this will be a green constituency. I think that enraged youth often change their minds. Don't know why. Losing the innocence of simple ideals? Bogged down in money? Cynicism? The reality of actually casting a vote and bowing to family pressures/traditions?

They've not yet been lured by jobs, competition, having to pay for things, thinking about inheritance windfalls, or have as much of an appreciation of how taxes etc affect the lives they want to live. Maybe...

Though the way the work place is changing hopefully people will remain more left as they age. There is much more of an eco focus on things which I never had 15-20 years ago, hopefully getting people engaged in that via documentaries such as Attenborough's will help sow seeds...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 13, 2019, 08:00:26 pm
Where's Nostradamus..?
(Offwidth)

Depriving me (and others tbf) of our smugness by busying himself with finding a suitably appetising hat.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: webbo on December 13, 2019, 08:26:38 pm
Matt, aren’t people’s voting habits shown to move right with age, and as such what people are voting for now may not be a good indication of what they will vote when older?

Assume it’s too early for any by age breakdown of this result, but will be interesting to see how much yoof went with Johnson.
Have yours? Mine haven’t I might not vote Communist these days but then again, they don’t seem to stand for election in North Yorkshire.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on December 13, 2019, 08:48:13 pm

Have yours? Mine haven’t I might not vote Communist these days but then again, they don’t seem to stand for election in North Yorkshire.

Here’s an article about it, as usual not straightforwards https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/03/do-we-become-more-conservative-with-age-young-old-politics
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 13, 2019, 08:57:01 pm
They called us the "Centrist Dads". When we told them that Corbyn would lead us to a Tory government, they posted the crying laughing emoji. When we pointed out his unpopularity they told us we'd been brainwashed by Murdoch. They called us Red Tories and Blue Labour.

Politics is not about getting what you want. It's not about getting what I want. It's about finding what you and I can live with, thus commanding the support of the electorate.

It's obvious, but Labour failed to do this spectacularly and (worse) proudly. They revelled in alienating the members of the electorate that they'd always relied on in the past. People with common, vulgar opinions like keeping a nuclear deterrent, making sure that those in work are better off than those on benefits, and talking tough on crime and terrorism. You don't have to give everything, but you have to meet them halfway. The best thing that Corbyn seemed to be able to offer was to nationalise everything from utilities to transport to fucking tea towels. Why? Well because that's what the dogma decrees isn't it?
These blue collar voters aren't daft. They know that this stuff will be paid for by them somehow: be it through a government levy or by paying a private company.

The finding of the compromise is what politicians wistfully or disingenuously call "bringing the country together". All we are left with now is a tug of war between two halves of the electorate, with a winner-takes-all approach to the spoils.

I could go on and on about the mistakes that Labour have made. The ingrained terror of a debt crisis that exists within the general population; the disassociation between votes and impact on public services; the inability to empathise with people who are suffering but whom you do not know personally; the devastating beauty of the slogan "Get Brexit Done"; antisemitism; the IRA; the demonisation of anybody with the temerity to have an undefined amount of money deemed to be "too much"; and a filter bubble which could not be pricked because any criticism levelled at Corbyn was dismissed as an MSM plot.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 13, 2019, 10:45:34 pm
I don't think it could be any more clear that it's both Corbyn and Corbynism that is at fault. If momentum install another clone with Len McCluskey pulling the strings, welcome to over a decade more conservative government.

If you can't beat a man who is credibly accused of siphoning public funds to a model he's been shagging, a proven serial liar, serial adulterer, and who also fucks up several election interviews by nicking a journalists phone and hiding in a fridge ... then who can you beat?

Bets for the conservative cabinet reshuffle: JRM out? No need to keep the erg on board anymore after all, and he's proved an even bigger liability than Johnson but without the public appeal. I wonder if Matt Hancock will survive as well.
How the hell are the conservatives going to keep their voters in vastly different areas of the country all happy?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 13, 2019, 11:00:43 pm
Just read this article:

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/12/why-voters-trust-certain-politicians-even-when-they-know-they-re-lying

Labour clearly needs a serial liar to outlie Johnson to win.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: sdm on December 13, 2019, 11:01:52 pm
They don't have any need to keep their voters all over the country happy. They don't need an election for another 5 years and they have such a huge majority that it doesn't matter if there's a few casualties along the way.

Johnson has never been afraid of dropping people as soon as they have served their purpose for him.

It is possible he will drop the ERG and the hardliners and move to a more moderate position, closer to the Johnson we saw in London. It is equally possible he will drop the few remaining moderates and we will see a sharp lurch to the right and an even harder exit.

He will continue to do what is best for Boris Johnson but which direction he perceives that to be, I'm not sure.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: highrepute on December 13, 2019, 11:11:22 pm
, welcome to over a decade more conservative government.

Historically majorities this big take at least one election to overturn so we're already looking at 10 years of Conservative government.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 13, 2019, 11:23:52 pm
, welcome to over a decade more conservative government.

Historically majorities this big take at least one election to overturn so we're already looking at 10 years of Conservative government.

Definitely, but politics at the moment isn't showing many signs of conforming to prescedent. If, in 5 years leaving the EU hasn't brought any sunlit uplands, transformed run down areas of the UK or affected immigration so much that anyone notices, I have difficulty foreseeing people in Burnley, Bolsover etc etc turning out to vote conservative again. But you never know, Johnson might achieve all those things. Maybe.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: shark on December 14, 2019, 09:58:52 am
The figures show that it was an election lost by Labour (down 6% I think) rather than won by the Tories (up 1% I think).

Voters have given Boris the benefit of the doubt rather than a ringing endorsement. He’s got a lot of hyperbole to live up to.

Next election still up for grabs by Labour I think depending on how they react now.


Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 14, 2019, 10:15:23 am
Where's Nostradamus..?
(Offwidth)

I've been unwell and travelling and always said a Boris working majority was a big risk. My disappointment maybe even became physically manifest, as the election day saw an acceleration of one of the strangest cold virus attacks that I have ever ever experienced. Anyhow I voted green in a safe Labour seat, as I advised others to in similar seats, and my 'big name' Change MP, Chris Leslie, got an electoral beating, as did Anna Soubry down the road.  My new MP is a local 23 year old  Labour socialist. I half watched most of the election (in accomodation near Stanstead), as I felt so rough that I couldn't sleep, and flew to Turin yesterday where we ambled round the city ( just missed a Greta speech!), and then I half-slept again, in a daze, for 14 hours. I'm feeling a little better today and listened to IFSC delegates gossip over breakfast, after they passsed condolences on to Lynn and I over brexit.

On my English predictions, well they were wrong and that was obvious from the time of the exit polls (I was right in Scotland... more sensible people on average). My view on why the result occurred  is a bit different to others here. My biggest concern is still that the educated progressive voters clearly did not vote tactically en masse. If you look through the results, at least 20, and  maybe as many as 30 seats could have been won if such progressives had been less tribal and less attached to a silly belief that in the flawed electoral system, that  FPTP is, that you should vote for the party you most believe in.  Those seats would have not have been enough though, as, in those northern and midlands areas Labour deprived seats, there was a vote swing of typically 15% against the Labour party.. the second big factor. Gina Millar made the point early am on Friday that the leave voters seemed if anything to have voted more tactically than the remain voters; this included more of those who didn't normally vote but had turned out to vote leave and again this week... the third factor. For all the problems with Corbyn's leadership I'm not sure any likely leader could have stopped this response from the working class ex Labour voter front. Labour is too detached from its traditional base and is doomed if it doesn't resolve this soon... the problem is more Momentum than Corbyn.

I said here before, that there was no point in trying to convince this large number of older working class ex Labour voters, who voted leave, to vote Labour this time. However I also said their votes were factored in to the polls. What I missed was the size of this effect and that there was also, from turnout, a cancellation of the youth-vote, pro-Labour effect, by the 'disaffected rare voter effect' (people who didn't normally vote but turned out to vote leave... this group were the main reason the referendum polls were wrong). Back to those working class Labour areas, when your community and social media bubble had a major narrative that brexit was anything from OK to vital, and Corby was anything from useless to evil, their voting patterns were inevitable. However, I refuse to see these people as stupid, as you need to be brave to vote against the common knowledge in any social or political bubble.  The stupid people were the educated middle classes who should have known better, who supported Boris the liar, or if they opposed him, didn't vote tactically. They knew what brexit meant and that the threats to the UK of Corbyn, especially given the election math, were mostly made up 'bs' from dishonest right wing influencers. Also, the business, industrial, economic and professional classes who were vocal before the referendum but muted this time. The TV media also gave Boris way too easy a ride. Good moderate people and experts were not calling out the dangers of Boris's lies enough. I'd add that too many of the well educated middle classes of the UK, who knew the poor really needed more help after austertiy, didn't prioritise this enough... they used their intelligence and influence to mostly navigate around our creaking public sector systems, whilst those deprived ex Labour voters were fucked by it, time and time again. If their treatment is not changed soon this will lead to social unrest, worse than during Maggie's years;  it will be fun to see how these new local tory ideological minded  MPs will cope with their constituency work (too many are like Corbinista MPs in reverse).

Like Matt upthread, my main hope for the future is that Boris has stitched himself up so well with this election win that he is doomed. On brexit, the 'unicorn' trade deals with the EU and US, that are mutually incompatible, will hit him hard and eat political energy. He either has to choose a softer brexit than he planned (bypassing the ERG and annoying the US) with good EU alignment, or, something like Canada (where time is way too short given his supposed negotiation time red lines) risking no deal. He has lost all his best MPs for attracting future middle class swing votors for the next election ... the few new moderate tory stars will take years to start to shine. His party is a aged dinosaur detached from the reality of ordinary life in the UK, reactionary, greedy and racist, and will contine to feed the Parliamentary party mainly new raw meat; Torygraph, Excess, Fail and Scum headlines in this election were as rabid as they have ever been.  The public sector is in a terrible mess following a decade of tory austerity and his planned headline investments to the NHS, schools and police won't even reverse the problems of the last ten years and will soon lead to various mini crises.  In arguably the areas of biggest UK local needs, big local council services, more austerity is planned. I can see life expectancies to continue declining, as right across social care things are struggling so much and there is no spare system capacity when things become acute. The UK union is at serious threat in Scotland and NI. The clock is also ticking on the desperately urgent need for global action to tackle climate change and his party are full of climate change deniers. Boris's stated desire, in his post results speech to the people, for everyone  to now come together (after all he has done to gain and retain power), is a sick joke.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on December 14, 2019, 10:16:23 am
You won’t see Labour in power while McCluskey is kingmaker.
(In response to Shark).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: shark on December 14, 2019, 10:27:58 am
You won’t see Labour in power while McCluskey is kingmaker.
(In response to Shark).

 :agree:
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 14, 2019, 10:57:23 am
You won’t see Labour in power while McCluskey is kingmaker.
(In response to Shark).

 :agree:

This.

However, it is undeniable that more people who voted, did not vote for the Cons, than did.
Ergo, Shark is absolutely correct that Lab lost the election and the electorate. Not only did they fail to attract any of those millions of non-Con voters, they lost a significant number of they’re “normal” supporters.

I keep banging on about it, but it is still (and I assert this as a demonstrable fact) that the political spectrum of the population lies on a bell curve, highest at broad apex encompassing ~50% of the population in the “middle” ground. This gives rise to a very nearly 50/50 split that rarely deviates much around that mark (+/- 7% or so).
I’m asserting this on the split in numbers of votes cast, not seats won.

Labour ignored this reality. Or, at least, wrongly assumed that the Working class were way further left on the curve than reality has shown. That bell curve is just so much fatter around the apex, so much more precipitous at the margins than they can grasp in their socialist circle jerk.

The notion that attracting the centrist voter, was in any way unnecessary, is to simply ignore the reality that ~50% of the population should properly be called exactly that (ie, not lying at an extreme).

What a different picture this would be with Proportional Rep! The Cons would only hold 43% of the seats! Where would their “Crushing victory” be then? Where would be their  “commanding majority” and “absolute and inarguable mandate”?
In reality, they don’t have that, not in terms of genuine support of a majority of the population.

I wish I’d realised much younger how shit our FPTP system actually is. I wish we all could wake up to the injustice of it.

Because, ultimately, the vast majority if people in the UK are decent, fair minded and not extreme in their views; trapped in a system that only seems to allow relative extremists to gain power.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 14, 2019, 11:01:52 am
You won’t see Labour in power while McCluskey is kingmaker.
(In response to Shark).

I also totally agree.  He is a dinosaur,  however hes the biggest funder of the party as head of unite.

Offwidth, I agree with many of your points about tactics,  but I think the problem was Corbyn and Momentum.  More people would have voted tactically if Labour had a less divisive, more credible leader and policies. 
I think that to blame the media is wrong.  I fear for media independence under a Johnson/ Cummings administration.  As many conservative leavers moan about the media being biased against them as do Labour lefties. It's not so much the media as the electorate who were biased against Corbyn. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on December 14, 2019, 11:22:22 am
Where's Nostradamus..?
(Offwidth)

I've been unwell and travelling and always said a Boris working majority was a big risk. My disappointment maybe even became physically manifest, as the election day saw an acceleration of one of the strangest cold virus attacks that I have ever ever experienced. Anyhow I voted green in a safe Labour seat, as I advised others to in similar seats, and my 'big name' Change MP, Chris Leslie, got an electoral beating, as did Anna Soubry down the road.  My new MP is a local 23 year old  Labour socialist. I half watched most of the election (in accomodation near Stanstead), as I felt so rough that I couldn't sleep, and flew to Turin yesterday where we ambled round the city ( just missed a Greta speech!), and then I half-slept again, in a daze, for 14 hours. I'm feeling a little better today and listened to IFSC delegates gossip over breakfast, after they passsed condolences on to Lynn and I over brexit.

On my English predictions, well they were wrong and that was obvious from the time of the exit polls (I was right in Scotland... more sensible people on average). My view on why the result occurred  is a bit different to others here. My biggest concern is still that the educated progressive voters clearly did not vote tactically en masse. If you look through the results, at least 20, and  maybe as many as 30 seats could have been won if such progressives had been less tribal and less attached to a silly belief that in the flawed electoral system, that  FPTP is, that you should vote for the party you most believe in.  Those seats would have not have been enough though, as, in those northern and midlands areas Labour deprived seats, there was a vote swing of typically 15% against the Labour party.. the second big factor. Gina Millar made the point early am on Friday that the leave voters seemed if anything to have voted more tactically than the remain voters; this included more of those who didn't normally vote but had turned out to vote leave and again this week... the third factor. For all the problems with Corbyn's leadership I'm not sure any likely leader could have stopped this response from the working class ex Labour voter front. Labour is too detached from its traditional base and is doomed if it doesn't resolve this soon... the problem is more Momentum than Corbyn.

I said here before, that there was no point in trying to convince this large number of older working class ex Labour voters, who voted leave, to vote Labour this time. However I also said their votes were factored in to the polls. What I missed was the size of this effect and that there was also, from turnout, a cancellation of the youth-vote, pro-Labour effect, by the 'disaffected rare voter effect' (people who didn't normally vote but turned out to vote leave... this group were the main reason the referendum polls were wrong). Back to those working class Labour areas, when your community and social media bubble had a major narrative that brexit was anything from OK to vital, and Corby was anything from useless to evil, their voting patterns were inevitable. However, I refuse to see these people as stupid, as you need to be brave to vote against the common knowledge in any social or political bubble.  The stupid people were the educated middle classes who should have known better, who supported Boris the liar, or if they opposed him, didn't vote tactically. They knew what brexit meant and that the threats to the UK of Corbyn, especially given the election math, were mostly made up 'bs' from dishonest right wing influencers. Also, the business, industrial, economic and professional classes who were vocal before the referendum but muted this time. The TV media also gave Boris way too easy a ride. Good moderate people and experts were not calling out the dangers of Boris's lies enough. I'd add that too many of the well educated middle classes of the UK, who knew the poor really needed more help after austertiy, didn't prioritise this enough... they used their intelligence and influence to mostly navigate around our creaking public sector systems, whilst those deprived ex Labour voters were fucked by it, time and time again. If their treatment is not changed soon this will lead to social unrest, worse than during Maggie's years;  it will be fun to see how these new local tory ideological minded  MPs will cope with their constituency work (too many are like Corbinista MPs in reverse).

Like Matt upthread, my main hope for the future is that Boris has stitched himself up so well with this election win that he is doomed. On brexit, the 'unicorn' trade deals with the EU and US, that are mutually incompatible, will hit him hard and eat political energy. He either has to choose a softer brexit than he planned (bypassing the ERG and annoying the US) with good EU alignment, or, something like Canada (where time is way too short given his supposed negotiation time red lines) risking no deal. He has lost all his best MPs for attracting future middle class swing votors for the next election ... the few new moderate tory stars will take years to start to shine. His party is a aged dinosaur detached from the reality of ordinary life in the UK, reactionary, greedy and racist, and will contine to feed the Parliamentary party mainly new raw meat; Torygraph, Excess, Fail and Scum headlines in this election were as rabid as they have ever been.  The public sector is in a terrible mess following a decade of tory austerity and his planned headline investments to the NHS, schools and police won't even reverse the problems of the last ten years and will soon lead to various mini crises.  In arguably the areas of biggest UK local needs, big local council services, more austerity is planned. I can see life expectancies to continue declining, as right across social care things are struggling so much and there is no spare system capacity when things become acute. The UK union is at serious threat in Scotland and NI. The clock is also ticking on the desperately urgent need for global action to tackle climate change and his party are full of climate change deniers. Boris's stated desire, in his post results speech to the people, for everyone  to now come together (after all he has done to gain and retain power), is a sick joke.

So based on your current prediction-making form most of the above predictions will be entirely wrong. But even a broken clock is correct twice per day..
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: shark on December 14, 2019, 11:23:19 am
I wish I’d realised much younger how shit our FPTP system actually is. I wish we all could wake up to the injustice of it.

Because, ultimately, the vast majority if people in the UK are decent, fair minded and not extreme in their views; trapped in a system that only seems to allow relative extremists to gain power.

Don’t agree as I wouldn’t call the Tories (on the whole) relative extremists. PR would also gift real minority extremists (National Front, UKIP etc) places in Parliament.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: danm on December 14, 2019, 11:38:13 am
About PR: I think that people knowing that their vote means something, regardless of where they live, is worth paying the price of having small extremist parties in parliament. The other option would be to scrap the Lords and have an Upper House populated by representatives chosen based on vote share nationally as a percentage.

Gutted as I am by the result, looking at this from the viewpoint of a Leave voting, former Labour voter in the North who now has a Tory MP, this represents a massive positive sea change for them. For generations they have voted in a safe seat for a party which almost never wins, and have seen their communities slowly decay around them. They then for once get a chance to vote (for Brexit) where their vote can actually make a difference, only to be ignored for 3 years, and be accused of being stupid, racist or gullible. The Tories have given them something Labour hasn't been able to give them in recent times - a voice in parliament. Their needs will now form a source of internal pressure from within the party to get stuff done for them. The next 5 years are going to be quite interesting.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 14, 2019, 12:23:28 pm
Dan Cheetham.

Express your counter opinion here, publicly, or fuck off.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 14, 2019, 12:31:20 pm
I wish I’d realised much younger how shit our FPTP system actually is. I wish we all could wake up to the injustice of it.

Because, ultimately, the vast majority if people in the UK are decent, fair minded and not extreme in their views; trapped in a system that only seems to allow relative extremists to gain power.

Don’t agree as I wouldn’t call the Tories (on the whole) relative extremists. PR would also gift real minority extremists (National Front, UKIP etc) places in Parliament.

The old Tories, perhaps not. However, there are an awful lot of new MPs now. I think a lot depends on how much sway over policy Cummings has, as he is certainly an extremist in many ways. I also don't know about the extremist parties you mention. Perhaps a few Brexit party loons like Widdecombe but you'd also get a lot more Greens.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 14, 2019, 12:55:51 pm
This, really:

 what it should be  (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-results-pr-alternative-voting-system-tories-labour-hung-a9246661.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1576325852)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 14, 2019, 01:03:29 pm
I wish I’d realised much younger how shit our FPTP system actually is. I wish we all could wake up to the injustice of it.

Because, ultimately, the vast majority if people in the UK are decent, fair minded and not extreme in their views; trapped in a system that only seems to allow relative extremists to gain power.

Don’t agree as I wouldn’t call the Tories (on the whole) relative extremists. PR would also gift real minority extremists (National Front, UKIP etc) places in Parliament.

I don't think most tory voters are extremists but they do seem to be in denial about their party having shifted hard right: Boris's ministers are certainly very extreme for his party, compared to any tory government in modern times. Hiding from this truth is heading in the direction of the denial about the extremism of the US Republican party, from their voters. It bodes ill for the future of capitalism, when dangerous liars become lauded.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on December 14, 2019, 01:07:14 pm
The establishment will do their utmost to prevent a socialist led Labour Party from reaching government for obvious reasons.  If this election proves anything, it proves how easy it is to manipulate a large proportion of the population to think in a particular way, particularly when billionaires are throwing money through the media machine to endlessly churn out their misleading narrative.  It also proves that despite the nigh on impossible task of taking on the machinations of the billionaire establishment and having our voice heard through the tirade of flack that comes our way, 1 in 3 voters chose to vote for a socialist Labour Party.  We continue the fight for social justice and equality which never ends.

In other alarming news...Tommy Robinson has joined the Conservative party. :ohmy:
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on December 14, 2019, 01:21:25 pm
I can agree with a lot of that but... being led by a cabal of incompetents is a betrayal of all those whose interests they claim to represent.

Stephen will feel at home; Boris’s big tent has spread wide enough to welcome his sort now.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on December 14, 2019, 01:38:42 pm
I have said this before on here but there is a party of ‘progressives’ and ‘moderates” that occupies the ‘centrist’ ground, if the people on here so strongly believe that this is where the LP needs to go to get elected why on earth don’t you join the Lib Dem’s and pursue your centrist dream with them?  (It’s perfect timing, a new leader is required, there are no links to union Kingmakers, there’s no lefties getting in the way, there is no incompetent cabal to speak of, make it happen folks).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 14, 2019, 01:52:16 pm
Not until FPTP is out of the way, otherwise we leave the opposition in the hands of people with no interest in winning elections.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 14, 2019, 02:06:54 pm
I have said this before on here but there is a party of ‘progressives’ and ‘moderates” that occupies the ‘centrist’ ground, if the people on here so strongly believe that this is where the LP needs to go to get elected why on earth don’t you join the Lib Dem’s and pursue your centrist dream with them?  (It’s perfect timing, a new leader is required, there are no links to union Kingmakers, there’s no lefties getting in the way, there is no incompetent cabal to speak of, make it happen folks).

Mate, that attitude is why we’re here. Which I’m pretty sure has been mentioned many times on this thread by many people.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on December 14, 2019, 02:11:15 pm
Some of us believe in winning elections for us the people, others believe we have to sell our souls to the ‘shadow’ (big business, banks, big money) in order to win an election but in my opinion once that happens there is little point in getting elected because the interests of shadow will be served over and above those of the people. We’ll be walked into spurious conflicts in order to increase arms sales and we’ll allow profit to take more importance than care.  The significant change that is needed globally is beyond the petty political games that are being played out within our dysfunctional so called democracy. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 14, 2019, 02:20:02 pm
Very well, as you wish, Conservative rule without end, during which time all that you prophesy will happen anyway on a greater unmitigated scale.

You see how it works? This is the idiocy of the radical left. They would rather be martyred in perpetual defeat than compromise and avoid the worst excesses of their enemy.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on December 14, 2019, 02:35:04 pm
Brutus, the Labour Party has just been comprehensively rejected by the electorate. Th e aspirations you list are phantasms, disappearing like the morning mist,  because revolutionary talk means nothing without power and the Labour Party has never been further from it.

Virtue is nothing without power Brutus. Confront that reality and you may have a route to social justice.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on December 14, 2019, 02:42:16 pm
Don’t agree as I wouldn’t call the Tories (on the whole) relative extremists. PR would also gift real minority extremists (National Front, UKIP etc) places in Parliament.

This came up on here recently, so I’ll repeat myself: why would this be a problem? They get a few seats out of 600 hundred odd and make exactly fuck all difference to how parliament runs, as they don’t have any clout as minority extremists.

I guess theoretically the Speaker could choose an early day motion regarding deporting all brown people or whatever the NF would come up with, but this isn’t exactly going to get a huge amount of votes.

This is a very poor argument against giving a voice to the millions who vote Green (or Brexit party for that matter). Sunlight is the best disinfectant.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Hoseyb on December 14, 2019, 02:48:49 pm
I saw an interesting static where they broke the voting down into the age of voters. Basically nearly all over 60s voted tory, and nearly all under 30s voted Labour. With the NHS suffering like it is, there may be a very different voting population in 5 years.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 14, 2019, 02:51:19 pm
Not as simple as that. Old votes right and young votes left: twas ever thus. People get further right as they get older.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Bradders on December 14, 2019, 03:00:17 pm
Labour clearly needs a serial liar to outlie Johnson to win.

No...just a stronger personality. According to the argument in that article, they did so well comparably in the 2017 election because they were up against a much weaker personality in Theresa May.

why on earth don’t you join the Lib Dem’s

Definitely good timing for this, particularly as Brexit is now decided once and for all. They need to go back to the drawing board.

Lots of stuff about saying the Tory's gambled on Brexit and won; Lib Dems essentially did the exact same on the opposite side of the argument and it went completely against them. Time to start again.

About PR: I think that people knowing that their vote means something, regardless of where they live, is worth paying the price of having small extremist parties in parliament.

Couldn't agree more. In a democratic society no one should be left powerless and without representation, regardless of their views; yet that's exactly how FPTP leaves people. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on December 14, 2019, 03:20:47 pm
Indeed virtue is nothing without power but it would appear that in order to achieve power we have to let go of our virtues which defeats the object.  If you want the power of wealth ergo the media behind you, you will have to let go and concede the very things you believe are just.  ...our democracy is fucked.   

Agree that PR  would be a good start to changing our democracy for the better.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on December 14, 2019, 03:40:23 pm
Indeed virtue is nothing without power but it would appear that in order to achieve power we have to let go of our virtues which defeats the object.  If you want the power of wealth ergo the media behind you, you will have to let go and concede the very things you believe are just.  ...our democracy is fucked.   

Do you believe wealth and virtue are mutually exclusive Brutus? Are you Appollonius?

(I mean in Shark's case obviously yes, but as a general rule)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on December 14, 2019, 03:42:52 pm
Indeed virtue is nothing without power but it would appear that in order to achieve power we have to let go of our virtues which defeats the object. 

Bizarre. Not really sure why you think this since I don't see any evidence for it, but if you really believe it, you are doomed to failure. If you frame the terms of success as completely impossible to achieve, why bother when you can only fail? It's neurotic.

Do bear in mind that Blair's stewardship achieved something; Corbyn's gift is 5 more years for the Tories to grind the faces of the poor. And in style!

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on December 14, 2019, 03:47:03 pm
On Sunday the Observer’s pollsters Opinium reveal their own analysis of the reasons people rejected Labour: 43% cited the leadership, 17% its policy on Brexit, and 12% its economic policies. Among Labour defectors – those who voted Labour in 2017 but didn’t this time – 37% mentioned the leadership, 21% Brexit and 6% its economic policies. (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/14/i-saw-just-how-many-voters-were-hostile-to-jeremy-corbyn)

Even if you think the Guardian has a jaundiced view of Corbyn's leadership, polling suggests it may not be alone in that.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: andy popp on December 14, 2019, 04:00:00 pm
There's seems to be a strong rush to frame the result of this election as a damning referendum on more progressive politics as well as on the leadership, and Corbyn especially. I'm not fully convinced that's right.

As an aside, I haven't moved right at all as I've got older, possibly moved further left (at the very least my politics have been reinvigorated, largely because of moving to the US).

(Phew, I've only just thought to check, Halton [the constituency I would have voted in if I'd got it together] remained Labour, albeit with a reduced share of the vote, at 63%, down from 73%. Tories were down in absolute numbers but up 0.6% in share. The bulk of Labour's loss seems to have gone to Brexit Party on 8%)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 14, 2019, 04:35:02 pm
I saw an interesting static where they broke the voting down into the age of voters. Basically nearly all over 60s voted tory, and nearly all under 30s voted Labour. With the NHS suffering like it is, there may be a very different voting population in 5 years.

I looked at age split, but I’m really skeptical of the figures, since they can’t be any more accurate than the exit poll.

I also suspect they’re not far from the mark, anyway.

I’d agree with Andy about moving left with age. There’s a huge gulf opened between my Jan ‘89 Naval class. All anti-Thatcher, many of us disciplined for taking part in the Poll Tax protests.
Now, we’re utterly split.
I could delineate the split, clearly, on how far people progressed post Navy. Those who went back to Uni, or otherwise into senior roles: Left leaning centrists. Those who went Offshore or continued to the end of their 22 year contract: Right wing to full on BF nutters.

Products of their environment and contrary to Brutus’ assertions I might add.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 14, 2019, 04:44:23 pm
Actually, Brutus, what you're proposing isn't democracy, it's dictatorship. You're saying that you would like to see a niche ideology rolled out to all across the nation with no compromise, despite it not being able to command popular support. Democracy requires popular support, most often possible through compromise. If you can't accept that then you are simply not a democrat.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: andy popp on December 14, 2019, 05:06:08 pm
I think Brutus is saying that he'd like to make that niche ideology (if that's what it is) into something able to gain widespread popular support. I haven't seem him anywhere say he wishes to circumvent the electoral process.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 14, 2019, 05:43:19 pm
Can we please Logpile this thread? It’s where I’d like the election to go :(
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on December 14, 2019, 06:01:16 pm
The traditional call for PR by every second place party ever (and 3rd, 4th, 5th etc.)

Labour could have won the same huge majority the Conservatives did, if the relevant number of people thought they were a credible party of government.

Not being one for committees (take minutes and lose hours etc..) I'm not sure how I feel about PR. It could lead to us mostly or always having coalition governments which I imagine to be the mother of all dithering committees. Depending on the issues at large though that could be a good or a bad thing. It could be good to have a large single party majority when people just want stuff to get done. On the other hand it seems wrong that there isn't a system that represents significant numbers of votes for minority parties.
I'd certainly vote for what someone mentioned earlier - scrapping the ridiculous house of lords and reforming it into a second chamber run under PR.


The Labour 'landslide' victory of 1997, number of seats represented by outer ring, would look like the inner ring under PR. Maybe we wouldn't have gone into a disastrous war based on lies under PR..:
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f7/Results_of_the_UK_General_Election%2C_1997.svg/1024px-Results_of_the_UK_General_Election%2C_1997.svg.png)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 14, 2019, 06:11:37 pm
Regardless of the hopeful sentiment about the Iraq war, any and all predictions of what a parliament would have looked like under a different voting system are always wrong - probably very. The votes would have fallen entirely differently and, arguably, turnout in safe seats would be greatly increased.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 14, 2019, 06:24:48 pm
Pete, to me it’s simple, you shouldn’t be able to hold a massive majority in government, having received a minority of the vote.
I struggle to understand how you can possibly frame it as a “sour grapes” argument, when the majority of the population did not achieve (and have rarely ever) adequate representation. It’s a system that forces you to vote for the least worst, currently.
Oddly enough, the rest of Europe, by and large, manages to “get things done” without our antiquated system.
France, for instance, has a superior record on large infrastructure development (despite constant strikes, riots and arguing etc).
And, Brutus, that’s been very much a partnership between Industry (that’s what you call “Shadow”) and state (that’s actually “the people” in any democratic country).

The ring of the current Tory landslide, would very much look to be the negative of the last Labour landslide etc etc and so on ad infinitum.

I had a quick scooby back over the popular vote for several elections, back as far as the ‘70s. It’s much of a much. That’s why I keep saying “the people” are actually, year on year, election after election, are pretty much evenly divided with a ~7% swing each way, at maximum. Generally, the government formed, does not represent the majority of the popular vote. Ever. Pretty much, you can say, if you bag more than 40%, you’re on for a majority gov. Bag that in the right distribution of seats and it’s a landslide.

I can’t see any logical way that’s “right”.

I understand your point on committees, I hate them too, but ultimately they’re necessary. Jesus, if you go high enough, even the military is run by committees, and that’s about the most autocratic division of Western society.

Actually the Lords proposal, I think, would work better the other way around; given the powers currently invested in the upper house.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on December 14, 2019, 06:26:37 pm
I think Brutus is saying that he'd like to make that niche ideology (if that's what it is) into something able to gain widespread popular support. I haven't seem him anywhere say he wishes to circumvent the electoral process.
This minus the word niche, in order to gain widespread popularity  it needs a fair hearing.. The playing field is controlled by the billionaires though so it’s incredibly hard to break through all the flack that is thrown our way.  To escape the flack we would have to get into bed with the likes of Murdoch which is exactly what Blair and co. did.  A better functioning democracy would give differing ideologies an equal hearing, equal scrutiny and somehow prevent money being the major deciding factor in who wins elections.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on December 14, 2019, 06:37:15 pm
I struggle to understand how you can possibly frame it as a “sour grapes” argument..

I haven't? I've said it's what the losing parties in a majority election result always call for. It is.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 14, 2019, 06:41:28 pm
I think Brutus is saying that he'd like to make that niche ideology (if that's what it is) into something able to gain widespread popular support. I haven't seem him anywhere say he wishes to circumvent the electoral process.
This minus the word niche.

It is though, isn’t it.
Certainly a minority position, if you remove the labour moderates. How small a percentage of the population, holding that strict view, do you need for the word niche to apply?
10%?
Or are you roping everyone who vote Lab into the Momentum bracket? Because, if you are, then you should just change the party name to Momentum and make it clear that it’s a “Red or Dead” club.

I know you don’t actually mean that. You are well known, around here,(possibly not to the UKB massive) for being a very caring individual and you chose a working life that reflects that. Plenty of vulnerable people rely on people like you, and you sure as hell aren’t in it for the money!
But, assuming the rest of us, or even the wealthy, are in league with “The Shadow” is a bit much.
I mentioned the whole “rich people run everything” fallacy somewhere else, have spent many years working for them, so just a short bit now.
They’re a bunch of self absorbed wankers, mainly, not interest in us, as long as we don’t interfere with their circle jerk they call a social  life.
Not, I repeat, not, the Illuminati.
Unless they’re incredibly good at playing dumb.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 14, 2019, 06:45:50 pm
I struggle to understand how you can possibly frame it as a “sour grapes” argument..

I haven't? I've said it's what the losing parties in a majority election result always call for. It is.

Well, that sounds a bit like a “sour grapes” type of statement, don’t you think? I mean, can you not see why it might be interpreted as such? Anyway, most PR supporters have been banging on about it for decades, before, during, after and between elections, regardless of which party they support. Or do you think there are no PR proponents who vote for the Cons or Lab? 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: largeruk on December 14, 2019, 06:48:10 pm
Re PR. The German system seems to have served them pretty well for the last 75 years.

Each voter has 2 votes. The first vote is a direct vote for a member of parliament in that constituency, similar to Americans voting for a congressional reprentative in their district. There are 299 constituencies in Germany, so direct votes make up roughly half of the seats in the Bundestag.

The second vote is for a political party. Parties in Germany’s 16 states put together lists of candidates; the results from the second votes determine which candidates make it off the lists to the remaining 299 seats in parliament. Parties need to receive at least 5% of the second votes in a state to qualify for a seat - makes it harder for extremist groups to have influence or get in power.

They also have a few “overhang” and “balance seats.” Those are extra seats in the Bundestag that ensure every candidate who was directly elected gets a seat while political parties are still proportionally represented based on the number of votes they received. A German state’s population is taken into consideration when votes are converted into seats. After Germany’s 2013 parliamentary elections, there were 631 seats in the Bundestag, including 33 overhang and balance seats.

Re the voting profile by age group. https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/12/how-britain-voted-and-why-my-2019-general-election-post-vote-poll/ (https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/12/how-britain-voted-and-why-my-2019-general-election-post-vote-poll/) while clearly only indicative, seems to confirm the view that the younger you are the more 'progressive/left wing' your views are and that these move to the right as we age - generally.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on December 14, 2019, 08:01:59 pm
I think Brutus is saying that he'd like to make that niche ideology (if that's what it is) into something able to gain widespread popular support. I haven't seem him anywhere say he wishes to circumvent the electoral process.
This minus the word niche.

It is though, isn’t it.
Certainly a minority position, if you remove the labour moderates. How small a percentage of the population, holding that strict view, do you need for the word niche to apply?
10%?
Or are you roping everyone who vote Lab into the Momentum bracket? Because, if you are, then you should just change the party name to Momentum and make it clear that it’s a “Red or Dead” club.

I know you don’t actually mean that. You are well known, around here,(possibly not to the UKB massive) for being a very caring individual and you chose a working life that reflects that. Plenty of vulnerable people rely on people like you, and you sure as hell aren’t in it for the money!
But, assuming the rest of us, or even the wealthy, are in league with “The Shadow” is a bit much.
I mentioned the whole “rich people run everything” fallacy somewhere else, have spent many years working for them, so just a short bit now.
They’re a bunch of self absorbed wankers, mainly, not interest in us, as long as we don’t interfere with their circle jerk they call a social  life.
Not, I repeat, not, the Illuminati.
Unless they’re incredibly good at playing dumb.
For context: I have worked with young people and their families for most of my working life, as a youth worker and more recently as a SEN teacher specialising in Autism.  I have worked in some of the poorest communities in the UK.  I have oodles of first hand knowledge of the impact of government policy  (national and local) on real people and their communities.  I don’t accept half measures or excuses or reasons for anyone to be living in poverty when there is so much wealth in this country.  I know that I will be called an idealist because of this, I know that others will think people like me are pissing on their party and fucking everything up.  On this very channel I have been accused of destroying a political party, asked to apologise for my views, told to put on my tin foil hat etc... Some folk can’t accept the possibility that a billionaire controlled media and a state owned broadcaster heavily linked to a political party could control the narrative and affect the views of a large proportion of our population (even harder to accept that your own consent could be manufactured).  Or for that matter how government controls the education system and the kind of thought we encourage.  No conspiracy or Illuminati here just an acceptance that we are manipulated.  Here’s the thing, the world needs people like me and people like me are everywhere.  We are the ones who look after and care for your children, your family.  That put love and hope back into the world one person at a time.  These are my biggest political acts and I make them each day of my life.  I refuse to accept that living in a world that has care for others at it’s core is an impossible task and I will do all I can to further that agenda for all of my life.  You all need people like me because if we didn’t exist, to be frank, you’d be fucked.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on December 14, 2019, 08:06:14 pm
Indeed virtue is nothing without power but it would appear that in order to achieve power we have to let go of our virtues which defeats the object.  If you want the power of wealth ergo the media behind you, you will have to let go and concede the very things you believe are just.  ...our democracy is fucked.   

Do you believe wealth and virtue are mutually exclusive Brutus? Are you Appollonius?

(I mean in Shark's case obviously yes, but as a general rule)
😂 Absolutely not, plenty of virtuous wealthy folk out there but I’d hazard a guess that in order to reach billionaire status you may have to let a few virtues go.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: webbo on December 14, 2019, 08:30:30 pm
Do you know I think I can smell burning flesh.  :bow:
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 14, 2019, 09:07:51 pm
Brutus, I know.
I’ve been down there.
I was lucky enough to have the ability and opportunity to claw my way back out of it.
But it was a close run thing and it was acts of charity that, quite literally, save me (actually, some of that was support from people on this forum and one of them was Tom (Sloper) and you don’t get much further to the right than him).
The thing is, when you’re up to your neck in shit, surrounded by shit, struggling to help other people, too overwhelmed to keep their heads above said shit, under a government that couldn’t even give a shit; it’s easy to start thinking no one gives a shit.

Actually, most people are just drowning in different shit and plain don’t understand the other shit. If they did, they probably would and do give...

You get what I mean.

Look, Murdoch is a twunt, and frig knows why he’s so hell bent on world domination, but, if someone is unaware of his position and influence on his media empire’s output; then they’re not really going to be open to think for themselves, are they?
I mean, most (ish) people know that Paper X, supports wing Y etc etc and that none of the many outlets are without some cant, even the BBC.
Frankly, I think more of the credulous were swayed by BJ’s lies and promises of miracles, than news outlet bias.
And again, the British public doesn’t seem to split very differently, regardless of which party the Sun chooses to support in any particular election (actually I think they just aim to pick the winning side, rather than create it).

 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 14, 2019, 09:42:50 pm
From someone’s Twitter

Quote
A fella from Scunthorpe has just said on national tv..

"look around you shops are shutting, businesses are closing, the full place is falling down, so I voted for change, that's why I voted Conservative"

Let that sink in....

Yup. Let that sink in. This ain’t a brexit thing - it’s people think Johnson will do a better job than Corbyn - despite being from the austerity party. Enough people didn’t think labour under Corbyn were a credible alternative.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: BrutusTheBear on December 14, 2019, 09:50:37 pm
In order to change a circumstance people first need to understand it properly, they then need the knowledge and skills to negotiate their way through whatever system it is to affect that change.  Trouble is, as you will know, when you’re  up to your eyes in shit you can’t see where it’s coming from.  On our little island we have big voices telling us where the shit is coming from but they’re not telling the truth and so we blame the wrong people for the shit, hate them for it and make poor choices because of the deception.  .
I have just been reminded of a book and person that changed my perception massively would thoroughly recommend it to anyone seeking positive change..  Paulo Freire - Pedagogy of the Oppressed.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 14, 2019, 10:30:57 pm
I’m not doing this well, am I...

I’m not arguing with you, I’m saying the statistics of the popular vote, the reality (if you will) is a much more hopeful picture than the one you think you see. For a start, more than half the population, never vote Conservative. Every election, more than half the people of this country choose something left of the Conservative moderate (if there ever was an election where more than 50% of voters picked the Cons, it was an anomaly). Add to that, as Shark said, not all Cons are bastards, many are conscientious and socially responsible, but not trusting of Labours perceived Loony Leftism (doing lunch with Terrorists etc). Put together, you get a much warmer picture of “the people”.
Plus, it’s the memes and overly simplistic slogans, plastered on social media, that are having the greatest influence, I expect, and they don’t need billionaires to run.
Anyway, I keep getting told Soros is funding us progressives and controlling the media, according to my right wing friends.
 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 14, 2019, 10:55:47 pm
I really disagree with all this blame the media bullshit I'm afraid. Newspapers are bought by people to confirm their established worldview generally. The Daily Mail and the Telegraph didn't suddenly change the views of lifelong Labour party voters did they?

British media is among the, if not the most diverse, rich and genuinely informative in the world. Brutus, your assertion that the Labour party was fighting a state broadcaster (if I read your post correctly)  is plain wrong. The UK has no such thing. Try China for that sort of thing.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 14, 2019, 11:03:24 pm
 I've just read that in the observer tomorrow, Corbyn writes that he won the arguments and it was all down to the media and brexit.

I find it absolutely flabbergasting that he's still hanging on, and seems to be displaying not one ounce of contrition.

The Labour MPs who lost their seats must be absolutely livid.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: spidermonkey09 on December 15, 2019, 07:58:50 am

British media is among the, if not the most diverse, rich and genuinely informative in the world.

 :lol: what a crock of shite. The British media is owned almost exclusively by Lord Rothermere, Murdoch and the Barclay brothers. It's biased to an extremely clear degree. Refusing to acknowledge that as bad as Corbyn sticking his head in the sand.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 15, 2019, 08:19:08 am

British media is among the, if not the most diverse, rich and genuinely informative in the world.

 :lol: what a crock of shite. The British media is owned almost exclusively by Lord Rothermere, Murdoch and the Barclay brothers. It's biased to an extremely clear degree. Refusing to acknowledge that as bad as Corbyn sticking his head in the sand.

This is totally delusional in itself I'm afraid to say. There are any number of other news sources not owned by those who you mention.
But, more relevantly, the journalists who write for them are not automatons, the Times for example publishes many columnists who are strongly critical of Conservative government, and definitely Johnson personally. The front pages are conservative biased but if you actually read them they tend to put across both sides coherently.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on December 15, 2019, 08:28:20 am
I've just read that in the observer tomorrow, Corbyn writes that he won the arguments and it was all down to the media and brexit.


Had a quick flick through the article (couldn’t bring myself to read the whole thing) which ‘argument’ does he think he won?!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: spidermonkey09 on December 15, 2019, 08:32:07 am
I find your defence of it delusional to be honest.

I do read The Times. The overriding tone of their opinion pages is pro Tory and their editorials are full foam flecked denigration of the left. They publish the odd good columnist (eg David Aaronovitch) alongside racist and bitter old crones like Melanie Phillips. They even publish Matt Ridley who masquerades as an economic expert while also banging the drum for climate denial. It's a clearly right wing paper, not the beacon of centrism you seem to think it is.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Bradders on December 15, 2019, 08:33:01 am
From someone’s Twitter

Quote
A fella from Scunthorpe has just said on national tv..

"look around you shops are shutting, businesses are closing, the full place is falling down, so I voted for change, that's why I voted Conservative for the party which promised Brexit and had the clearest message"

Let that sink in....

Yup. Let that sink in. This ain’t a brexit thing - it’s people think Johnson will do a better job than Corbyn - despite being from the austerity party. Enough people didn’t think labour under Corbyn were a credible alternative.

Fixed...I think it is about people thinking Johnson will do a better job (astonishing imo), but it's also very much about Brexit, and Labour's failure to listen to their voters in those areas and adjust their policy accordingly. The two things are so intertwined as to make it impossible to separate them.

They also just didn't attack the Conservatives enough on their record, which is a remarkable failure.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 15, 2019, 08:49:46 am
My point Bradders - and of the tweet I think - is that Labour have failed to communicate with these voters - that were their hard core.

Their campaign and their leader failed to get their message across properly. That’s also about using the media well - even if it’s cosying up to them.

That’s before we even start debating the message....

Johnson was clever though - his campaign managed to lose the shackles of austerity / by promising to spend spend spend (more than the Lib Dem’s planned for example).

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 15, 2019, 09:29:32 am
I find your defence of it delusional to be honest.

I do read The Times. The overriding tone of their opinion pages is pro Tory and their editorials are full foam flecked denigration of the left. They publish the odd good columnist (eg David Aaronovitch) alongside racist and bitter old crones like Melanie Phillips. They even publish Matt Ridley who masquerades as an economic expert while also banging the drum for climate denial. It's a clearly right wing paper, not the beacon of centrism you seem to think it is.

So are you trying to say that Labour lost because voters in Burnley, or Sedgefield who voted Labour all their lives, voted for the conservatives because they read Melanie Reid?

I am bitter and angry about the result,  but vilification of the media leads to enabling the worst instincts of people who want to tear it down, which I think would do far more damage than good.  Our media as a whole is decent,  flawed , but decent. 

If Labour hadn't been in thrall to short sighted dogma for the last four or five years,  they might well have won. That had nothing to do with the media,  and everything to do with Corbyn,  Mccluskey,  Murphy, Milne etc.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Andy B on December 15, 2019, 09:46:18 am
British media is among the, if not the most diverse, rich and genuinely informative in the world. Brutus, your assertion that the Labour party was fighting a state broadcaster (if I read your post correctly)  is plain wrong. The UK has no such thing. Try China for that sort of thing.

Using comparisons with China’s state media to dismiss media bias in the UK is a weak argument akin to the “their racism is worse than our racism” argument discussed further down the thread.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on December 15, 2019, 10:09:10 am
Something I find really interesting is how many people form an understanding of the world from their social media. I suppose it's completely natural to do this - easy-access digitalised tribalism in your hand, with instant gratification feedback. But I've never felt that social media is where I go to give me an objective understanding the world, except as a window to see what people in silos are saying to fellow silo occupants. I think there's a widespread gullibility, a tunnel-vision and a switching-off of critical thinking.

I was reminded of this by this post on the ukc exit poll thread - which itself was a hugely biased medium out of sync with what was actually happening - which made me chuckle:

Thursday, 2.42pm
Well, there's some pretty exciting stuff going on now on Twitter. Literally hundreds of people who have always voted Tory or Lib Dem saying they have voted tactically for Labour for the first time - to get rid of Bojo. Admittedly of the 4200 people I follow about 4000 are Remainers, so I might be getting a very distorted picture. Even so....

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 15, 2019, 10:34:16 am
Something I find really interesting is how many people form an understanding of the world from their social media. ...

Indeed.  I was told by a work colleague last week that she was going to vote online.  I politely suggested that I didn't think that you can, knowing full well that you can't.  She told me that she'd read it on Facebook and that I didn't know what I was talking about. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 15, 2019, 10:41:57 am
British media is among the, if not the most diverse, rich and genuinely informative in the world. Brutus, your assertion that the Labour party was fighting a state broadcaster (if I read your post correctly)  is plain wrong. The UK has no such thing. Try China for that sort of thing.

Using comparisons with China’s state media to dismiss media bias in the UK is a weak argument akin to the “their racism is worse than our racism” argument discussed further down the thread.

I'm not saying that they don't have opinions,  they clearly do,  but as a whole it's a better system than most other countries.  Critical,  investigative journalism doesn't exist in many places, only a bland filter of current events. 
But newspapers,  which all have a definite editorial line, don't change people's opinions,  just confirm them. The fact that there are more right of centre papers must be in considerable part due to the fact that they are mostly bought by older people.  The papers which publish very dubious stuff aren't bought by people who might have been leaning in the opposite political direction. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: nai on December 15, 2019, 10:44:58 am
People don't have to read papers to form an opinion, so many more people see the front pages on petrol station forecourts, in the queue for their fags, while they're picking up their Angling TImes, etc. Folk who don't question what they read just need to see those headlines to cement their beliefs and job done for the tories.

Even the Mirror screws up on decision day, detail that can't be read from five meters away.

https://inews.co.uk/news/media/general-election-2019-uk-newspaper-coverage-the-sun-daily-mail-brexit-1340033
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Bradders on December 15, 2019, 11:15:05 am
Something I find really interesting is how many people form an understanding of the world from their social media. ...

Indeed.  I was told by a work colleague last week that she was going to vote online.  I politely suggested that I didn't think that you can, knowing full well that you can't.  She told me that she'd read it on Facebook and that I didn't know what I was talking about.

Goodness me I hope you corrected her in a less polite way!!

My point Bradders - and of the tweet I think - is that Labour have failed to communicate with these voters - that were their hard core.

Yeah I think we agree TT. It's utterly bizarre that people were of the mindset that voting Conservative was for change, when they've been in power for 9 years, and to me that shows the combined strength of Brexit and anti-Corbynism.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Andy B on December 15, 2019, 11:38:27 am
British media is among the, if not the most diverse, rich and genuinely informative in the world. Brutus, your assertion that the Labour party was fighting a state broadcaster (if I read your post correctly)  is plain wrong. The UK has no such thing. Try China for that sort of thing.

Using comparisons with China’s state media to dismiss media bias in the UK is a weak argument akin to the “their racism is worse than our racism” argument discussed further down the thread.

I'm not saying that they don't have opinions,  they clearly do,  but as a whole it's a better system than most other countries.  Critical,  investigative journalism doesn't exist in many places, only a bland filter of current events. 
But newspapers,  which all have a definite editorial line, don't change people's opinions,  just confirm them. The fact that there are more right of centre papers must be in considerable part due to the fact that they are mostly bought by older people.  The papers which publish very dubious stuff aren't bought by people who might have been leaning in the opposite political direction.
Again, comparing UK media to extreme examples like China doesn’t prove its worth. UK media can be biased enough to influence voters whilst still being miles better than countries like China. Comparing them proves nothing.
The uk has some excellent investigative journalism but most people don’t read or watch this. As Nai said, most don’t get past the headlines.
The idea that newspapers don’t influence opinion is laughable. If that is the case then why did Blair work so hard to woo murdoch, and why do parties spend so much on media ads? Am I right in saying that a party hasn’t won an election in our lifetime without the support of the Sun?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Andy B on December 15, 2019, 11:56:38 am
Something I find treally interesting is how many people form an understanding of the world from their social media. ...

My point Bradders - and of the tweet I think - is that Labour have failed to communicate with these voters - that were their hard core.

Yeah I think we agree TT. It's utterly bizarre that people were of the mindset that voting Conservative was for change, when they've been in power for 9 years, and to me that shows the combined strength of Brexit and anti-Corbynism.

Part of the explanation for this (to my mind, and very anecdotally) is that my wife’s social media feed has had a constant stream of posts in the last few months from family members living in poor, run down areas of the country (the North East, in our case), involving social media “news” blaming labour councils for their areas’ neglect and poverty, whilst always failing to acknowledge/realise that this is a direct result of years of massive cuts to labour council funding by the conservatives at a national level. Which, when combined with a lack of understanding of how local and national politics work, leads people in those areas to the conclusion that voting Tory is a vote for change.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on December 15, 2019, 02:34:46 pm
Interesting to see more Labour figures in the news today blaming their Brexit position for the defeat. I’m sure someone somewhere has done the maths, but:
- back a second referendum and lose leave backing northern seats.
- back leaving without any further referendum and lose your metropolitan remain supporting seats?

Hard to think of a strategy besides the compromise they went for that would have satisfied all the previously Labour areas.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: nai on December 15, 2019, 03:42:23 pm
It was a decent tactic but poorly executed.  More easily justified than LD just cancelling it.  Trying to justify rerunning it with a short punchy slogan was never going to be easy though I guess.

And you've got to think that every time BJ reeled off "Get Brexit Done" a lot of folk just heard "Send them home", "Get them out" or whatever.

I came to think of the election like a game of Bullseye: "you've got the foreigners out, now do you want to gamble that on saving the NHS, ending austerity and bringing utilities back in to public owenership. You could have all that but you might lose out on sending them back".

[Mr and Mrs Gammon discuss while the audience shouts at them to gamble and stick in equal measure]

"we've had lovely day, those extras would be nice but we don't want to risk it.  We'll let somebody else take the NHS"

I don't think anything was going to get through to those folk.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 15, 2019, 03:52:02 pm
“Clearly the play was a success, but the audience was a failure.”
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 15, 2019, 04:23:42 pm
The latest on Boris and the BBC (anyone in the press who is remotely independent is a danger to him of course, given his record).

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/dec/15/boris-johnson-threatens-bbc-with-two-pronged-attack
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on December 15, 2019, 04:54:44 pm

Hard to think of a strategy besides the compromise they went for that would have satisfied all the previously Labour areas.

Campaigning properly for Remain in the referendum would have resolved this before it happened. Labour would have known full well their electoral base was split on the issue but went ahead with their referendum strategy anyway.

This mess is a direct consequence of a lily-livered referendum campaign based on wanting Brexit and wanting the Tories to own the aftermath. A naďve belief in both having cake, and eating it, as someone once said.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 15, 2019, 05:43:51 pm
Good points MrJA

Though there is some sort of sick irony that the Tories have created the crisis they are now elected to fix.. (austerity).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 15, 2019, 05:53:30 pm
Quote
Dominic Cummings is known to be a strong critic of the BBC, its funding model and its output. He is particularly dismissive of the Today programme, which he argues operates in a metropolitan bubble out of touch with the rest of the country.

From the guardian article. For once I find myself in agreement with Domestos... (re today)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tc on December 15, 2019, 07:50:48 pm
This, from John Douthwaite, sums the current situation up quite neatly I think:

“So congratulations if you wanted Boris Johnson as PM.
Please don’t celebrate too much though as you have work to do. You see us remoaners have spent three and a half years now telling you brexit was wrong but we’ve finally and completely lost. There’s pretty much nothing we can do now to stop it.
So, it’s over to you leavers. You need to get yourselves into gear to make it work. We need to see some of these benefits you’ve been able to see yet unable to properly articulate since 2016.
I hope you don’t mind but I’ve taken the liberty of writing a to do list for you.
1. Get brexit done please. When we say done we mean as promised so we’ll be looking for trade deals with the EU, Japan, Australia and Canada etc. In fact there’s about 40 deals covering 70 countries that need to be done please. Also with the US that doesn’t involve the nhs or chlorine. We want what you promised us. That was that we’d be no worse off than when we were an EU member. You need to crack on as this was promised by the end of Jan. You have seven weeks.
2. The nhs. We want the cash that was promised please. Ł350 million per week is about 72000 nurses so please get recruiting. This is important.
3. Scotland. Ok so these guys were promised they would remain in the EU if they remained in the UK. They’re pretty pissed. In fact they’ve voted almost exclusively for the SNP so they might want to leave. Equally you said the UK wouldn’t split so you’ll need to both grant Scotland its independence and keep it as part of the United Kingdom. Good luck squaring this circle. NB. This is urgent.
4. Northern Ireland. Oooookay then. You’ve really buggered this one up. There’s a chance they could look to reunify with the republic now because they didn’t want to brexit. Regardless you’ve caused instability there where we and they can least afford it. NB. This is also urgent.
5. The economy. Johnson keeps talking about unleashing the potential of the country. We need to see this soon if possible. We don’t want to see the downturn that “project fear” predicted. We don’t want to be poorer. We don’t want to lose out.
6. You’ll also need to “bring the country back together”. This might be tricky as a lot of people seem to be really really angry with each other.
That’s as far as I’ve got. Should keep you busy. So go and get all British about things. Roll up your sleeves, pull your socks up, dig deep and deliver what you promised.
And remember if you fail to deliver any of this it’s on you, Brexit and Tory voters. You wanted this so badly and now you have it. We honestly hope we’re wrong and that you can make a success of this but if you can’t then we will forever tell you that we told you so.”
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Fiend on December 15, 2019, 08:14:30 pm
Good points.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on December 15, 2019, 10:15:57 pm
My apologies to Stu Littlefair : you asked me directly in what way I thought Corbyn was anti-Jewish in his attitudes or policies and I didn’t answer. Work has been pretty mental.  I’ll do my best to answer now. Please bear in mind I don’t represent any view beyond my own- there’s nothing very Jewish about me really, apart from heredity.

I don’t think Corbyn poses an existential threat to British Jewry.  I think his racism is dangerous though. As Winhill observed, others in this country and abroad, watch events- and will be emboldened by him.  Attacks will go up if thugs see their prejudices condoned. 

When I asked my uncle why he never returned to visit Vienna (where he was born) his answer was simply that he couldn’t forgive. His memory as a little boy of watching out the window, as Austrian crowds lined the avenue to cheer the Nazis marching into the city, stayed with him. The violence of the 1940s may seem distant. For some it is a lot more real, and seem repeatable. As Primo Levy observed, it can happen again because it happened before. So bear in mind that others will see things very differently, and be more frightened by Corbyn’s views than may seem warranted to you.

I am not aware of any anti-Jewish Corbyn policy but I do think Corbyn is an anti-Semite because he tolerates anti-Semitic discourse in his party. A few years ago I started noticing examples of antiSemitic discourse which seemed to go unpunished in the Labour Party. First with surprise, then disquiet, now disgust. For example:


Naz Shah, 2014. Suspended, reinstated. Why not expelled? In a Facebook post in 2014, before she became an MP, she shared a graphic showing an image of Israel's outline superimposed on a map of the US under the headline "Solution for Israel-Palestine conflict - relocate Israel into United States", with the comment "problem solved". Is this someone who deserves to be an MP ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-36802075

Livingstone. 2014, re Shah ‘Never heard anything anti-Semitic from Labour Party members’.  Just not credible.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-36163432/ken-livingstone-naz-shah-not-anti-semitic

Ken Livingstone, plenty of casual anti-Jewish sentiment to choose from. 2005, references to Nazi guards in relation to Jewish journalist.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2005/feb/12/pressandpublishing.londonpolitics

Livingstone again, 2016.  ‘Hitler was supporting Zionism’ comments. Yet the man was responsible for the murder of 6m Jews. Offensive and bizarre.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/ken-livingstone-was-stating-historical-fact-when-he-made-hitler-remarks-a3845041.html

Alan Bull 2015, suspension opposed by Christine Shawcross, led to her resignation.
Re-posted an article suggesting the Holocaust was a hoax to a "closed group" of Facebook "friends" to "invite discussion and debate".

Chris Williamson ‘Party too apologetic’ about antisemitism
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chris-williamson-labour-mp-antisemitism-video-jeremy-corbyn-momentum-a8798581.html
Resignation comments worth reading:
https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/jewish-labour-movement-lambasts-chris-williamsons-racist-resignation-letter/

Luciana Berger, anti-Semitic abuse and lack of support in LP
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2019/mar/01/luciana-berger-on-antisemitism-hate-and-life-as-a-jewish-mp-video

Some detail on the nature of the abuse and its perpetrators political identities:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/jewish-mps-resignation-puts-claims-of-uk-labour-anti-semitism-back-in-spotlight/

Readmittance of Derek Hatton and his views about Jews:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/derek-hatton-suspended-from-labour-over-tweet

East Anglia, another anti-Semitic candiadate :
https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/anti-semitism-row-in-south-suffolk-1-6337904

What about the man himself?

Corbyn has a long history of support for the Palestinian people. Nothing in itself wrong with that; their situation is intolerable. It’s the elision of Palestine-Zionism-Jewishness that is problematic.
Corbyn referred to Hamas as ‘friends’ in 2009, later repudiating that comment. Still, rum friends. Hamas’s 1988 Covenant makes clear that its purpose is to destroy Israel: 'Israel will exist and will continue to  exist  until  Islam  will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it.' Article 6 states ‘The Islamic Resistance  Movement . .. strives to raise the banner of Allah over every inch of Palestine.'

Jeremy Corbyn, 2011 Foreword praising historian John Hobson’s 1902 study of Imperialism . Why is he praising a book as ‘brilliant’ which rehashes anti-Semitic tropes about Jewish financiers, Rothschilds etc?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperialism_(Hobson)

Corbyn in 2012 in support of the Freedom for Humanity mural. As blatant a piece of iconography of the moneyed Jew conspiracy theory school as you will ever see. His defence is not, in my view, credible.
https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/there-is-only-one-word-for-jeremy-corbyn-1.461313

Corbyn, talking about Zionists as not English
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2018/aug/24/jeremy-corbyns-2013-remarks-on-some-zionists-not-understanding-english-irony-video

Racists appear out the woodwork, sure. But since Corbyn's ascendancy it's rife, and the disciplinary process does not deal with it effectively - interference from the leader's office, weak punishments, enormous backlog. Why? Because they are in tune with the leadership's views? Surely if they can expel Alastair Campbell in a matter of minutes, the anti-racist party can expel racists in a matter of months? Surely?

In July 2018, Labour adopted a new anti-Semitism code which did not include a number of accepted examples of anti-Semitism, including:
   accusing Jewish people of being more loyal to Israel than their home country
   requiring higher standards of behaviour from Israel than other nations
They really dragged their feet over this.

Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) announced it would be conducting its own wide-ranging investigation into whether Labour "unlawfully discriminated against, harassed or victimised people because they are Jewish".

No wonder.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 15, 2019, 10:45:39 pm
Quote
Dominic Cummings is known to be a strong critic of the BBC, its funding model and its output. He is particularly dismissive of the Today programme, which he argues operates in a metropolitan bubble out of touch with the rest of the country.

From the guardian article. For once I find myself in agreement with Domestos... (re today)

Alright, it seems I'm not convincing people about the British media, but I think that the lefts criticism of it may assist in enabling the rights exertion of an unhealthy level of control. Cummings etc don't like Today because they ask awkward questions.  When there's noone left to question when the government has done f all about inequality, the NHS, social care, the police etc in 3 years time, this will be a worse informed less free and democratic country.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 16, 2019, 07:54:04 am
Quote
Dominic Cummings is known to be a strong critic of the BBC, its funding model and its output. He is particularly dismissive of the Today programme, which he argues operates in a metropolitan bubble out of touch with the rest of the country.

From the guardian article. For once I find myself in agreement with Domestos... (re today)

Alright, it seems I'm not convincing people about the British media, but I think that the lefts criticism of it may assist in enabling the rights exertion of an unhealthy level of control. Cummings etc don't like Today because they ask awkward questions.  When there's noone left to question when the government has done f all about inequality, the NHS, social care, the police etc in 3 years time, this will be a worse informed less free and democratic country.

Toby, in three years time, Inequality, NHS, Social care and Police, will be a single Civil Service department (actually a single “Expert” contractor, called Nigel, who did a summer internship with Bojo’s  campaign during his (unfinished) second year reading Guatemalan literature at Cambridge), under the specially appointed Uber Home and Foreign Secretary, Gloria “Go Go” Goodtime (catering to the discerning gentleman), who Bojo recruited for her amazing Entrepreneurial skills (she won several business awards (from committees that Bojo chaired)).

Anyway, the new DG of the BBC, Ms Dominique Coomeans (definitely not a bloke in a cheap blond wig) won’t allow them to get away with it and insist that they reveal exactly where they buy their socks and who their hair stylist is.

I don’t think you have anything to worry about or ask about.

There won’t be any poverty, anymore, because we just won’t count those kinds of things, we’re going to have positive thoughts and “can do” attitudes instead.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 16, 2019, 10:27:42 am
Matt, yup, that's exactly what I'm concerned about. Broadcasters legislated out of effectiveness or existence. All the decisions handed over to an unelected adviser who spent his formative years in Russia, swigging vodka in airports (really), who wants to disband the civil service. While glorious Johnson screws some models and then gives them public funds and trade trips as free holidays.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 16, 2019, 10:45:17 am
Matt, yup, that's exactly what I'm concerned about. Broadcasters legislated out of effectiveness or existence. All the decisions handed over to an unelected adviser who spent his formative years in Russia, swigging vodka in airports (really), who wants to disband the civil service. While glorious Johnson screws some models and then gives them public funds and trade trips as free holidays.

Hey, all of that was in the manifesto.

Or, at least, widely reported. Just not anywhere those who voted for it, might have read it. Again, most people didn’t vote for that.
But this is where the accusation of media bias grow from. Some of us think the entire shit show is weighted against them (well, it is, from their perspective, way out there to one side) and some of us think it’s just a little off, in certain places that should not be offering  opinions at all (whilst also realising  that‘s probably impossible. It should be, though, better than it has been).

What can we do about it?

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 16, 2019, 11:32:44 am
What can we do about it?

Riot? Burn buildings and cars? It works for French people.

Or leave the country and become a dirtbag.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: andy popp on December 16, 2019, 12:25:37 pm
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/sun-boycott-on-merseyside-reduced-euroscepticism/26/08/?fbclid=IwAR2E4rqhDP63CDQwgcsUEWwczqSDKsHWnm4ZDhBa2_28tSfxLktGnSv0RvI

Following the post-Hillsborough boycott of The Sun, Liverpool became steadily more Europhile as much of the rest of the country moved in the opposite direction. Liverpool, of course, voted remain and has just returned a full complement of Labour MPs.

I'm not vouching for either the methodology or the findings but its an intriguing study.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tc on December 16, 2019, 01:06:52 pm

Or leave the country and become a dirtbag.
[/quote]

I've already done that😁 and am busy rioting and setting fire to cars in an attempt to integrate myself into French society.
The major problem now is going to be getting a full residence permit as I will soon be a citizen of a non-EU country🤬
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 16, 2019, 01:19:19 pm

Or leave the country and become a dirtbag.

I've already done that😁 and am busy rioting and setting fire to cars in an attempt to integrate myself into French society.
The major problem now is going to be getting a full residence permit as I will soon be a citizen of a non-EU country🤬
[/quote]

Surely you just need a gilet jaune and you're in?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: SA Chris on December 16, 2019, 01:37:45 pm
I've already done that😁 and am busy rioting and setting fire to cars in an attempt to integrate myself into French society.
The major problem now is going to be getting a full residence permit as I will soon be a citizen of a non-EU country🤬

Well you've at least got

a) 6 months
b) a year
c) two years
d) 5 years
e) fuck knows

to sort it out.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tc on December 16, 2019, 01:59:01 pm
Yeah. Man, I fucking hate Tories. They're always trying to fuck my life up. Just like the police but without the funny hats.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Davo on December 16, 2019, 02:11:03 pm
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/sun-boycott-on-merseyside-reduced-euroscepticism/26/08/?fbclid=IwAR2E4rqhDP63CDQwgcsUEWwczqSDKsHWnm4ZDhBa2_28tSfxLktGnSv0RvI

Following the post-Hillsborough boycott of The Sun, Liverpool became steadily more Europhile as much of the rest of the country moved in the opposite direction. Liverpool, of course, voted remain and has just returned a full complement of Labour MPs.

I'm not vouching for either the methodology or the findings but its an intriguing study.

I listened to a podcast recently that made a similar point that Liverpool despite being generally working class etc had voted to remain. The podcast made the point that Liverpool council had generally promoted the fact that a lot of money had come from Europe when building or developing any projects rather than just taking all the credit for themselves. I just checked and the ward (Walton) where I used to live returned a massive Labour majority. This is a very working class area and fairly run down to say the least. Interesting that there they didn’t reject Labour!?

Dave
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 16, 2019, 02:16:55 pm
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/sun-boycott-on-merseyside-reduced-euroscepticism/26/08/?fbclid=IwAR2E4rqhDP63CDQwgcsUEWwczqSDKsHWnm4ZDhBa2_28tSfxLktGnSv0RvI

Following the post-Hillsborough boycott of The Sun, Liverpool became steadily more Europhile as much of the rest of the country moved in the opposite direction. Liverpool, of course, voted remain and has just returned a full complement of Labour MPs.

I'm not vouching for either the methodology or the findings but its an intriguing study.

yeah - but Manchester has done the same (full contingent of Labour MP's)... and no Sun boycot etc..

Hull also returned its Labour MP's again... Here the Tories made little or no percentage gains, though the brexit party got into double digits in a couple of places.

Its interesting how some of the post industrial 'working class' areas had no tory swing...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: andy popp on December 16, 2019, 03:25:36 pm
Fair enough. I admit I wasn't aware of results in Manchester for this year's election.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 16, 2019, 03:31:14 pm
How do people define “working class” now?

It’s not as if many people work in factories or down mines.

Are we defining based on income tier? Because some traditionally working class roles, are now occupied by “self employed” practitioners, who make decidedly middle class incomes and plenty of traditionally middle class roles, that barely breach the Living wage.

I’m thinking of certain Craftsmen, compared to, say, a Bank Clerk (that’s probably an antiquated term too).

I think the Blue/White collar thing seems clearer, but doesn’t actually come close to enough different distinctions for realistic discussion.

I guess everybody knows what is meant, by all of those terms and it’s idle speculation on my part. I ask, because I was wondering if it wasn’t actually quite an unhelpful way of thinking. Many, many people we call “Working Class” actually are without work entirely and see little prospect of ever finding much beyond casual labour. Whilst many a Higher Degree holding “Professional” makes less than the Electrician that wired their cubbyhole office. I’d put money on the “Professional” being certain of their “middle class” status and that their Electrician was “Working class”.
Chances are, the Electrician (without the “lets not tell HMRC”deductibles) has more to fear from a Labour tax regime than the pen pusher.

I mean, who the hell are the Labour party’s base anymore?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Andy B on December 16, 2019, 04:09:50 pm
.... Many, many people we call “Working Class” actually are without work entirely and see little prospect of ever finding much beyond casual labour....

Charles Murray, much loved by Conservative ideologues since Thatcher, had this group of people pigeon holed as the Underclass. It provides a great excuse for welfare cuts.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 16, 2019, 04:12:36 pm
OMM thats exactly why I put it 'in quotes'... I'm not sure the (whatever it is) definition holds true today...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 16, 2019, 04:27:08 pm
I hadn’t thought about it enough, assuming I understood the terms.

Then that audience member (was it Question Time?) that got all out of shape about being in the top 5% tax bracket, got me thinking.

To me, it seemed absolutely clear, that he saw himself as “Working Class” and couldn’t believe he was anything else, just slightly better off than most. Ithink the idea that he was a businessman, let alone a moderately successful, Middle Class, businessman; would have induced a stroke, if he’d grasped it.
And suddenly, I realise I don’t get it either.
A sudden respect for Social Scientists, for sure, I bet they’re  good at the Times Cryptic too.
I certainly have to rethink my ideas of social mobility too.

These are meant to be questions, not statements, by the way.
(Apparently my tone is condescending, that’s unintentional).

Also, just saw FB post, with a proposal to rename the North Atlantic the Perineum.

 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 16, 2019, 06:27:30 pm
It's a good question. Class is as much about social attitudes as it is about income.

The regression analysis I linked to before based whether someone was blue collar or not on whether their work was routine or semi routine I think.

There was this on the BBC a few years ago.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-34766169
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22000973
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 16, 2019, 06:42:47 pm
Working class is also a different concept with the gig economy. Millions of low (hourly) paid workers effectively self employed.

30-40 years ago they would be mostly in unionised environments...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 16, 2019, 07:02:27 pm
Apparently I’m Elite.

I think they spelled Arse incorrectly.

But it was seemingly very cursory.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Sidehaas on December 16, 2019, 10:29:49 pm
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/sun-boycott-on-merseyside-reduced-euroscepticism/26/08/?fbclid=IwAR2E4rqhDP63CDQwgcsUEWwczqSDKsHWnm4ZDhBa2_28tSfxLktGnSv0RvI

Following the post-Hillsborough boycott of The Sun, Liverpool became steadily more Europhile as much of the rest of the country moved in the opposite direction. Liverpool, of course, voted remain and has just returned a full complement of Labour MPs.

I'm not vouching for either the methodology or the findings but its an intriguing study.

I listened to a podcast recently that made a similar point that Liverpool despite being generally working class etc had voted to remain. The podcast made the point that Liverpool council had generally promoted the fact that a lot of money had come from Europe when building or developing any projects rather than just taking all the credit for themselves. I just checked and the ward (Walton) where I used to live returned a massive Labour majority. This is a very working class area and fairly run down to say the least. Interesting that there they didn’t reject Labour!?

Dave

There is definitely something unique about Liverpool but it is more than just remain = labour. Bootle constituency - which contains some of the poorest and most deprived areas - was estimated to have voted 55% leave in 2016 but still voted 80% for labour last week.

Although Manchester has also voted more for labour than nationally, the effect is not as strong as in Liverpool. I think it is more like other northern cities eg Sheffield,  Leeds.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 16, 2019, 10:50:44 pm
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/sun-boycott-on-merseyside-reduced-euroscepticism/26/08/?fbclid=IwAR2E4rqhDP63CDQwgcsUEWwczqSDKsHWnm4ZDhBa2_28tSfxLktGnSv0RvI

Following the post-Hillsborough boycott of The Sun, Liverpool became steadily more Europhile as much of the rest of the country moved in the opposite direction. Liverpool, of course, voted remain and has just returned a full complement of Labour MPs.

I'm not vouching for either the methodology or the findings but its an intriguing study.

yeah - but Manchester has done the same (full contingent of Labour MP's)... and no Sun boycot etc..

Hull also returned its Labour MP's again... Here the Tories made little or no percentage gains, though the brexit party got into double digits in a couple of places.

Its interesting how some of the post industrial 'working class' areas had no tory swing...

Sheffield is also still all Labour, and most definitely hasn't banished the sun; except in the sense that the weather is shit a lot of the time.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 16, 2019, 11:50:41 pm
I thought this was more about attitudes to the EU, than Labour?

I don’t think Labour knows/knew what it’s attitude is/was to the EU, so how would their voters?

On the other hand, if the Sun boycott correlated to a 10 point jump in regional IQ, I probably credit that to the boycot.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 17, 2019, 07:41:25 am
Extensive breakdown of voting by age in the Times today,  for those who can read it. I don't know about area so much, so very prominently, over 65 voted conservative , under 25, labour.  Unsurprising, but stark. Ageing population, regressive authoritarian government. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 17, 2019, 07:59:38 am
And now legislation to ensure brexit happens etc... and trade deal done by blahblahblah...

Yesterday was be nice to people - today we start to see what will happen. No deal back on the table...

That serves me right for looking at the news again...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: nai on December 17, 2019, 08:04:55 am
Extensive breakdown of voting by age in the Times today,  for those who can read it. I don't know about area so much, so very prominently, over 65 voted conservative , under 25, labour.  Unsurprising, but stark. Ageing population, regressive authoritarian government. 

This graph was posted a few days ago:

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1205535498065846272
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Davo on December 17, 2019, 09:11:03 am

[/quote]

There is definitely something unique about Liverpool but it is more than just remain = labour. Bootle constituency - which contains some of the poorest and most deprived areas - was estimated to have voted 55% leave in 2016 but still voted 80% for labour last week.

Although Manchester has also voted more for labour than nationally, the effect is not as strong as in Liverpool. I think it is more like other northern cities eg Sheffield,  Leeds.
[/quote]

Interestingly I grew up  very near Bootle (in Walton) and I was saying to a friend that if Labour every loses those two wards they would be gone forever. I simply can not imagine people in that area voting conservative. There is a huge tribal thing of voting Labour, potentially because people still remember the effects of Thatcherism on employment in the 80s and early 90s around there.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 17, 2019, 09:48:15 am
Extensive breakdown of voting by age in the Times today,  for those who can read it. I don't know about area so much, so very prominently, over 65 voted conservative , under 25, labour.  Unsurprising, but stark. Ageing population, regressive authoritarian government. 

This graph was posted a few days ago:

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1205535498065846272

The graph doesn't fully indicate the scale of the problem as older voters are slightly more likely to vote and there are different numbers in the age categories. Like the referendum, older voters have bequeathed this result on the next generations; the social class and educational background split looks slightly less skewed though.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: A Jooser on December 17, 2019, 11:10:23 am
This animated year in politics from cartoonist Morten Morland of The Times / The Sunday Times is brilliant...

https://youtu.be/FsmAb2W5wTE

(Subtle highlights for me are Jo Swinson blowing her own trumpet, the hot air from the horn section, Priti Patel with the dog whistle and Rory Stewart's selfy-stick flute. What are everyone else's best bits?)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 17, 2019, 11:28:25 am
Extensive breakdown of voting by age in the Times today,  for those who can read it. I don't know about area so much, so very prominently, over 65 voted conservative , under 25, labour.  Unsurprising, but stark. Ageing population, regressive authoritarian government. 

This graph was posted a few days ago:

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1205535498065846272

The graph doesn't fully indicate the scale of the problem as older voters are slightly more likely to vote and there are different numbers in the age categories. Like the referendum, older voters have bequeathed this result on the next generations; the social class and educational background split looks slightly less skewed though.
These age splits, must be largely inferred from exit and other polling data (entirely?) since it’s a secret ballot. So, it might be off by a large margin.
For instance, everyone over 60 in Liverpool, might have voted Labour out of nostalgia and everyone under 25 Tory out of social ambition. Obviously (I hope) I pulled  that out of thin air as a fictional example, I hope you get the point.
We don’t and probably can’t really know what motivated people to vote as they did.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 17, 2019, 11:32:29 am
Maybe we need separate ballots, by age, and weight the result by how long (statistically) the voters have to live with the result?
Or split between an upper and lower house, elected respectively by over and under 55’s?

That’s not in anyway a serious proposal, can you imagine the inter generational warfare that would ensue?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: JR on December 17, 2019, 01:35:57 pm

There is definitely something unique about Liverpool but it is more than just remain = labour.

Hillsborough.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: i.munro on December 17, 2019, 01:53:18 pm

This graph was posted a few days ago:

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1205535498065846272

What amazes me about that is that 19% of 18-24s voted Tory WTF!
Is it poverty or imminent death from Climate change that has so enthused them.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: nai on December 17, 2019, 02:12:54 pm
Yep, that'd be about a million of them:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/

And 12 million over 65s.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 17, 2019, 03:08:37 pm

This graph was posted a few days ago:

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1205535498065846272

What amazes me about that is that 19% of 18-24s voted Tory WTF!
Is it poverty or imminent death from Climate change that has so enthused them.

Aspirational.

Plenty of people dream of getting rich or being “successful” and (I’d guess) a larger proportion of already conservatively  (small c) minded people occupy that dream space than Liberally minded people. I would suspect that financial success slips down the “success” rankings as you move left on the personality spectrum (probably ending up around “Achieving oneness and harmony with the universe” at the absolute left extreme and “having all the money and ruling the entire universe” on the right).

It doesn’t make them evil. I was one, even as I marched in the Poll tax protests, I was still a Tory.

It’s another one of those things Labour fails to grasp. You have to offer something to the individual , as well as society. Some people, value personal advancement and opportunity. Some value that above societal benefits. Approximately 50% of the population fall to right of the cut off. This hasn’t changed.
This time around, Labour didn’t make any effort to dangle personal prosperity carrots (I think free broadband was seen as a gimmick). I think they forgot/didn’t notice that the gig economy, essentially moved whole swathes of the population into a, hypothetical, Businessperson not employee category and that would change entirely how they viewed things like the tax proposals.
Say you’re an Electrician. Over the last ten years, you’ve gone from apprentice to self employed, to taking on a couple of lads, to running four vans and a workshop with a lockup. You’ve gone from Ł3.12/hr to a nice Ł75k, you have a big house, mortgage, family. You can see a couple more vans in the next five, maybe a big contract with that developer and the magic Ł100k per annum.
Now, as it stands, you’ll lose a fair chunk of that to HMRC, but this Corbyn bloke wants even more...

I have always felt, that Labour is at a disadvantage, every time they approach a campaign from the “Things are so terrible, we must all sacrifice for the common good” angle and the Tories just shout “What Ho! We’re British, none of this moping rubbish. Chin up!” and promise pavements of gold.

Clearly things are more complicated and subtle than that. I mean it should be bloody obvious that some sacrifice is needed, roads don’t build themselves, some people need help etc etc. But Labour are shit at selling things. The Spivs in blue have that down pat.

Dour Magic Grampa vs the Bouncing Boris.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 17, 2019, 03:26:11 pm
Dour Magic Grampa vs the Bouncing Boris.

Exactly. on R5 the other day they had Mays former advisor on - and he was saying that their polling (when with May) showed that there was considerable appetite for more socialist policies corbyn had, but they needed to have someone credible that they believed would carry out those changes. He was asked who they feared back then most as a possible labour leader and they said John McDonnell. All their private polling showed him to be more believable, and statesman than Corbyn (he even fell on his sword in a decent way..). So you can sell any message and people will vote for you as long as they believe in you and that you can implement that message.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on December 17, 2019, 03:43:36 pm
Had been meaning for some time to respond to Offwidth's posts with exactly this. Corbyn was dour and uninspiring, and political leadership seems mostly to be about personality and perceived leadership traits. Or at least in a contest where one leader has them and the other doesn't then you can guess who'll win out. We're human beings and we're not entirely rational logical animals. Anyone who's ever been responsible for leading others knows you can have the 'best' ideas on paper (best for who will always be debatable) but people don't react emotionally to ideas and policies, they react to people's perceived leadership traits. Corbyn had a dour uninspiring personality as a leader.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 17, 2019, 04:30:18 pm
Had been meaning for some time to respond to Offwidth's posts with exactly this. Corbyn was dour and uninspiring, and political leadership seems mostly to be about personality and perceived leadership traits. Or at least in a contest where one leader has them and the other doesn't then you can guess who'll win out. We're human beings and we're not entirely rational logical animals. Anyone who's ever been responsible for leading others knows you can have the 'best' ideas on paper (best for who will always be debatable) but people don't react emotionally to ideas and policies, they react to people's perceived leadership traits. Corbyn had a dour uninspiring personality as a leader.

Yup. As the article I linked to earlier says this also means that people are far more likely to disbelieve Corbyn than Johnson, despite the fact that the latter is a habitual liar and the former isn't. I could say any number of things about Corbyn but I don't think I'd go for liar.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on December 17, 2019, 04:41:44 pm
Amazes me that many people don't seem to grasp how important this is in leadership elections though. Do you think Jose Mourinho, Alex Fergusan or Jurgen Klopp really have the most perfect-on-paper tactical and strategic plans for which formation and player combinations will produce the most optimum outcomes? They obviously have good plans, but the magic touch is their personality and perceived leadership traits, which convince people to believe in the project and be motivated to make it succeed. Corbyn was Aston Villa!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 17, 2019, 04:51:39 pm
There was a moment in the campaign when Corbyn was stood on a station platform giving an interview, muttering away under his breath in his nodding way about nationalising the railways. He made it sound like the most boring and pointless thing you could possibly do. I was swearing loudly at him to animate himself and wondered what the same policy might sound like coming out of Johnson's mouth.

He would have leapt about on the spot pumping his arms around. "Were going to get the trains running on time so the good people here can stop standing around in the cold; we're going to boost the railways and get people out of their cars and onto the trains so our cities can breathe again and eradicate congestion. We're going to get this country moving again!"

Cue cheers of approval from onlookers, children rush forward and present him with flowers, old ladies dab their eyes with their handkerchiefs.

In any case, improving rail services is only ever going to play really well among young urbanites and those commuters in the south east, who were probably going to vote for you anyway.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Bonjoy on December 17, 2019, 05:04:51 pm
As I said in the referendum thread in 2016:
Quote
Electibility and all of that is all well and good, as is appealing to the 'centre ground' (which inches further right every year), but all that ends up happening is you take a massive gamble by alienating the base while trying to reach out to these magical swing voters.
Look if this is all about pleasing the club members than can you all go away and argue in a corner while everyone else gets on with finding some other bunch who can unseat the torys.
I like JC and I like a lot of his policies, I also would like there to be an effective opposition and some prospect of a change of government in the next ten years.
Being the leader of a political party requires certain skills, one of which is being a salesman. There is no getting away from this. How many leaders must the Labour party get through before they remember this fact? Jeremy Corbyn is a woeful salesman. This has NOTHING to do with moving right or left on policy. There is no reason why a politician of any hue can't possess the skill to speak to people in a way that makes them believed and trusted. There is no reason why an able politician can't cut through any amount of media bile and bias. Look at Donald Trump FFS! He may be an objectionable creature but he is proof that you can succeed in the face of bitter media/establishment opposition. Like I said before, stuff like your comment above is just perpetuating a false dichotomy. The only thing which will ensure Corbyn's successor being a Blairite is the inability of everyone else to field a half decent alternative

This outcome has been highly predictable for a long time.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: galpinos on December 17, 2019, 05:30:58 pm
In any case, improving rail services is only ever going to play really well among young urbanites and those commuters in the south east, who were probably going to vote for you anyway.

And everyone in the north, crying out for better rail services.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: James Malloch on December 17, 2019, 09:33:53 pm
On a tangent, I loved the monster raving Looney party manifesto point on Brexit....

"We will Send Noel Edmonds to negotiate Brexit because he understands Deal or No Deal.
There will be no need for a backstop to the Brexit negotiations. We’ll have Alec Stewart as wicket-keeper."
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 17, 2019, 10:03:10 pm
I loved the monster raving Looney party manifesto point on Brexit....

"We will Send Noel Edmonds to negotiate Brexit because he understands Deal or No Deal.
There will be no need for a backstop to the Brexit negotiations. We’ll have Alec Stewart as wicket-keeper."

I thought that was the Labour party manifesto.


Then I realised it makes to much sense.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: gme on December 17, 2019, 11:22:59 pm
In any case, improving rail services is only ever going to play really well among young urbanites and those commuters in the south east,

And everyone in the north, crying out for better rail services.
Maybe for commuters in the bigger cities, areas that generally didn’t vote Tory, but outside these rail is an irrelevance.
Average people in Blyth, Bishop, Redcar etc are not interested in the railways at all. Buses yes but not trains, most wont catch one in a year. Businesses in these areas would like improved services.
This is another example of labour focusing on the metropolitan areas too much.

I asked this question at work and 70% of my staff never use a train.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: winhill on December 18, 2019, 12:14:01 am
"Mary Creagh, the former MP for Wakefield, said she had given Mr Corbyn the “hairdryer” treatment after she saw him at Westminster while clearing out her Commons office.

Her anger at her defeat after 14 years representing the West Yorkshire seat spilled over as Mr Corbyn prepared to meet with those Labour MPs who retained their seats at a party meeting tonight...

Ms Creagh, who saw her 2,000 majority overturned to lose Wakefield by more than 3,000 votes, said she told Mr Corbyn he had run a disastrous and chaotic election campaign, overseen a “joke” manifesto and alienated Labour’s natural supporters.

She demanded that he step down immediately, saying it was wrong for him to stay in his job while she had been forced to make her Commons staff redundant.

“I told him it was his sole decision to call the election without even consulting the shadow cabinet and as a result of that decision he has delivered the hardest possible Brexit,” she said. “I told him to come to Wakefield to apologise for five more years of Tory austerity and five years of a Tory MP. It was a hairdryer moment.”"

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-corbyn-faces-tirade-from-defeated-labour-mp-mary-creagh-73sl58bx6

On the beeb:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-50831524/creagh-on-corbyn-he-should-be-apologising

And then on Channel 4:

"We have in Jeremy a man without honour and without shame - and a type of preening narcissism that means he thinks he's still got something left to offer the Labour movement."

https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1207016886803804161/vid/1280x720/u14wfjuS7lQtwX8g.mp4?tag=13

Anna Soubry made an interesting point that JCs insistence on an election had prevented a people's vote on Boris' deal that may have prevented Brexit..
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Bradders on December 18, 2019, 08:59:55 am
Had been meaning for some time to respond to Offwidth's posts with exactly this. Corbyn was dour and uninspiring, and political leadership seems mostly to be about personality and perceived leadership traits. Or at least in a contest where one leader has them and the other doesn't then you can guess who'll win out. We're human beings and we're not entirely rational logical animals. Anyone who's ever been responsible for leading others knows you can have the 'best' ideas on paper (best for who will always be debatable) but people don't react emotionally to ideas and policies, they react to people's perceived leadership traits. Corbyn had a dour uninspiring personality as a leader.

If this is all true (and I'm not saying it isn't), what was all the "oooooh Je-re-my Cooooorbyn" stuff about in the 2017 GE?

You could argue he was up against May-bot and therefore anything with a personality stood a good chance, but that doesn't quite explain how he so successfully whipped up support then (and still lost).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 18, 2019, 09:45:27 am
Had been meaning for some time to respond to Offwidth's posts with exactly this. Corbyn was dour and uninspiring, and political leadership seems mostly to be about personality and perceived leadership traits. Or at least in a contest where one leader has them and the other doesn't then you can guess who'll win out. We're human beings and we're not entirely rational logical animals. Anyone who's ever been responsible for leading others knows you can have the 'best' ideas on paper (best for who will always be debatable) but people don't react emotionally to ideas and policies, they react to people's perceived leadership traits. Corbyn had a dour uninspiring personality as a leader.

If this is all true (and I'm not saying it isn't), what was all the "oooooh Je-re-my Cooooorbyn" stuff about in the 2017 GE?

You could argue he was up against May-bot and therefore anything with a personality stood a good chance, but that doesn't quite explain how he so successfully whipped up support then (and still lost).

I think the narrative of Labour success in 2017 is a bit of a myth. Getting a load of momentum groupies together for a sing song doesn't help in the least if you're trying to sell a brand of Marxism which alienates business and most of middle class England. 
Corbyn can't be seen as a strong leader by saying hes neutral on the pivotal issue of the entire election.  Strong leaders aren't openly criticised during the campaign by their own party. But the most important thing is presentation.  Whether you like it or not (I don't) Johnson is perceived as a leader because in interview hes assertive,  bombastic,  expressive and frequently amusing (if you like that sort of thing). Corbyn comes across as peevish,  irritable, never funny and his refrain during the campaign seemed to be "if you'd just let me finish ". In the end that's all people heard. Enough people have Labour the benefit of the doubt in 2017, if ran out in 2019.
I don't think there are millions of Tory faithful now, just people who gritted their teeth and put a cross there as they thought they should vote, and they all seemed pretty bad options,  but they definitely weren't Communists and didn't believe the broadband promise.  With a better leader, there would have been a hung parliament. However that's in the past Labour just need someone who isn't a disaster,  and isn't a revolutionary Marxist. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on December 18, 2019, 10:18:24 am
Had been meaning for some time to respond to Offwidth's posts with exactly this. Corbyn was dour and uninspiring, and political leadership seems mostly to be about personality and perceived leadership traits. Or at least in a contest where one leader has them and the other doesn't then you can guess who'll win out. We're human beings and we're not entirely rational logical animals. Anyone who's ever been responsible for leading others knows you can have the 'best' ideas on paper (best for who will always be debatable) but people don't react emotionally to ideas and policies, they react to people's perceived leadership traits. Corbyn had a dour uninspiring personality as a leader.

If this is all true (and I'm not saying it isn't), what was all the "oooooh Je-re-my Cooooorbyn" stuff about in the 2017 GE?

You could argue he was up against May-bot and therefore anything with a personality stood a good chance, but that doesn't quite explain how he so successfully whipped up support then (and still lost).

See bold bit in quote. I think being up against May explains a lot of the 2017 performance - two grey people, hardly a personality contest.

McDonnell consistently came across to me as more approachable, better suited to leadership and someone many of the public could identify with.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: galpinos on December 18, 2019, 10:19:04 am
In any case, improving rail services is only ever going to play really well among young urbanites and those commuters in the south east,

And everyone in the north, crying out for better rail services.
Maybe for commuters in the bigger cities, areas that generally didn’t vote Tory, but outside these rail is an irrelevance.
Average people in Blyth, Bishop, Redcar etc are not interested in the railways at all. Buses yes but not trains, most wont catch one in a year. Businesses in these areas would like improved services.
This is another example of labour focusing on the metropolitan areas too much.

I asked this question at work and 70% of my staff never use a train.

I guess I'm swayed by being in the northwest and the pretty good but expensive West Coast Mainline, but also the awful services of Northern and Trans Pennine. In the North West, public Transport is a big issue and it would make a big difference is the Conservative seats up here:

Altrincham and Sale
Bolton NE (Con Gain)
Bolton W
Bury N (Con Gain)
Bury S (Con Gain)
Cheadle
Hazel Grove
Heywood and Middleton (Con Gain)
Leigh (Con Gain)
Southport

There's 10 Conservative seats in Greater Manchester. 5 of which were gains at this election. Don't make the mistake of thinking the "North" is one homogeneous group. Not every policy has to resonate with every single voter.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: SA Chris on December 18, 2019, 10:23:36 am
she had been forced to make her Commons staff redundant.

Does TUPE not apply in government? :)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: shark on December 18, 2019, 10:44:17 am
However that's in the past Labour just need someone who isn't a disaster,  and isn't a revolutionary Marxist.

Agree with everything else you said but the bar will need to be higher than this. The electorate will see through a puppet leader. Whoever is in charge will need to wrest control away from the radical Left and lead internal cultural and institutional change in the party. I have no idea how hard this would be even on the back of this catastrophic defeat.

There is also the issue of how tainted the new leader is by their history on Remain or Leave. And of course their approach on Brexit issues going forward because it’s not going to be a dead issue by the end of January.

Also if the “People’s Government” actually (or are seen to be) deliver for the “just-about-managing” then Labour would be completely on the backfoot.

In fact what would be the point of Labour in the Labour heartlands if the Tories started delivering on their manifesto promises. Boris Johnson may be a liar and a chancer but retaining the support of this demographic is aligned to personal interests of a second term.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: gme on December 18, 2019, 12:58:26 pm
In any case, improving rail services is only ever going to play really well among young urbanites and those commuters in the south east,

And everyone in the north, crying out for better rail services.
Maybe for commuters in the bigger cities, areas that generally didn’t vote Tory, but outside these rail is an irrelevance.
Average people in Blyth, Bishop, Redcar etc are not interested in the railways at all. Buses yes but not trains, most wont catch one in a year. Businesses in these areas would like improved services.
This is another example of labour focusing on the metropolitan areas too much.

I asked this question at work and 70% of my staff never use a train.

I guess I'm swayed by being in the northwest and the pretty good but expensive West Coast Mainline, but also the awful services of Northern and Trans Pennine. In the North West, public Transport is a big issue and it would make a big difference is the Conservative seats up here:

Altrincham and Sale
Bolton NE (Con Gain)
Bolton W
Bury N (Con Gain)
Bury S (Con Gain)
Cheadle
Hazel Grove
Heywood and Middleton (Con Gain)
Leigh (Con Gain)
Southport

There's 10 Conservative seats in Greater Manchester. 5 of which were gains at this election. Don't make the mistake of thinking the "North" is one homogeneous group. Not every policy has to resonate with every single voter.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/transport/articles-reports/2018/12/31/four-ten-brits-havent-set-foot-train-last-12-month

I still think its an irrelevance to most people. See attached. Its important for less than 10 percent of the public who catch a train more than twice a month and i would hazard a guess a large percentage of those people are middle class white collar workers.

Everyone uses the NHS, most use the education system, a minority use the railways yet Labour seemed to spend a decent amount of time and effort going on about nationalising railways, something that would cost the 40+% who dont use it money and save money for the 10% who do, a majority of which can afford to pay.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: joeisidle on December 18, 2019, 01:24:27 pm
In any case, improving rail services is only ever going to play really well among young urbanites and those commuters in the south east,

And everyone in the north, crying out for better rail services.
Maybe for commuters in the bigger cities, areas that generally didn’t vote Tory, but outside these rail is an irrelevance.
Average people in Blyth, Bishop, Redcar etc are not interested in the railways at all. Buses yes but not trains, most wont catch one in a year. Businesses in these areas would like improved services.
This is another example of labour focusing on the metropolitan areas too much.

I asked this question at work and 70% of my staff never use a train.

I guess I'm swayed by being in the northwest and the pretty good but expensive West Coast Mainline, but also the awful services of Northern and Trans Pennine. In the North West, public Transport is a big issue and it would make a big difference is the Conservative seats up here:

Altrincham and Sale
Bolton NE (Con Gain)
Bolton W
Bury N (Con Gain)
Bury S (Con Gain)
Cheadle
Hazel Grove
Heywood and Middleton (Con Gain)
Leigh (Con Gain)
Southport

There's 10 Conservative seats in Greater Manchester. 5 of which were gains at this election. Don't make the mistake of thinking the "North" is one homogeneous group. Not every policy has to resonate with every single voter.

On a personal/professional area of interest...

Personally I'm in the camp that views the focus in Labour's campaign on the nationalisation of rail as a bit of an emblematic own goal. Research typically shows that lower income groups typically gravitate towards bus provision rather than rail (for example, but by no means limited to; https://www.ucl.ac.uk/transport/sites/transport/files/transport-poverty.pdf) and my perception has been that in recent years transport interventions have typically been increasingly focused into the main city regions driving regional growth, whilst many bus services (particularly in more remote areas) have been increasingly cut over the same time. This arguably ties into increasing focus at a city-region level on prioritising transport interventions where it will 'unlock growth' which is rarely a small north-eastern town and more often than not tends to be central locations within city regions which Labour have been better at holding onto in 2017/2019.

Obviously this is just a tiny part of a much wider problem about how Labour communicates its policy promises, but if you were sympathetic to the idea that Labour only cared about metropolitan university cities, Corybn's focus on rail nationalisation could help to reinforce that view. Appreciate that the manifesto (all 100+ pages of it) had measures in about nationalising buses etc. but can't recall hearing that on national news, whereas I definitely heard the pledge to nationalise rail coming out multiple times. Just my impression so might be wrong on that though - made an effort to not seek out leader's speeches in the lead-up to the election so could well be wrong.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nutty on December 18, 2019, 02:10:06 pm
Even as someone who commutes by train most days, the nationalisation policy isn't one that grabbed me. We've recently had new rolling stock and longer trains on our line so I get a seat unless there are severe problems. Obviously I'd like to pay less for my season ticket, but should that be subsidised through tax?

The most severe delays are always due to people jumping in front of trains - nationalisation isn't going to fix that sadly. Other than that, it's signalling failures (which is Network Rail, not the train operating companies) or strikes - :wave: unions - (not as much of an issue on my line, but certainly an issue on Southern / South Western).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: gme on December 18, 2019, 02:16:53 pm
A far better written and obviously more knowledgeable response than mine but saying the same thing.

I think labours obsession with nationalising everything is folly. Its something thats easy to get people to agree to and support as they think it will make everything both better and cheaper, which it obviously wont. Whats needed is investment and that costs money who ever is running things. I think the ludicrous proposal to nationalise broadband and give it away for free made a lot of people doubt the other stuff.

I personally think that nationalising the water industry and setting up a nationalised green energy provider to really push this area forward would be worth looking at, the rest not.

To give people what they think they are going to gain from nationalising rail  (more trains, more seats, on time, more guards AND cheaper fairs) will cost tens of billions even after you have taken back the, what are in the grand scheme of things, negligible profits the franchisees make at the minute. This will then have to be paid for in taxes by the majority of people, who hardly ever catch trains, to make it better and cheaper for 10% of the population who do, as per my earlier link.

If this was spelled out more clearly i suspect you would not have as much support for nationalisation of the railways.



Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Paul B on December 18, 2019, 02:19:10 pm
I personally think that nationalising the water industry and setting up a nationalised green energy provider to really push this area forward would be worth looking at, the rest not.

Out of interest why? Specifically the water industry.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Davo on December 18, 2019, 02:45:09 pm
I believe (happy to be corrected) that we are pretty much the only country in the world with a privatised water industry? Not really sure why it was privatised in the first place. I am not sure that the private sector is the right organiser if this one.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Paul B on December 18, 2019, 02:55:04 pm
I believe (happy to be corrected) that we are pretty much the only country in the world with a privatised water industry? Not really sure why it was privatised in the first place. I am not sure that the private sector is the right organiser if this one.

I've typed three responses to this and deleted them all. Do you mind expanding on this?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: gme on December 18, 2019, 02:57:53 pm
I personally think that nationalising the water industry and setting up a nationalised green energy provider to really push this area forward would be worth looking at, the rest not.

Out of interest why? Specifically the water industry.

Everyone uses it in a reasonably similar amount. I believe its highly profitable to the owners unlike rail and these profits are big enough to make a difference when reinvested.

Energy is another option for similar reason but the supply end is not as profitable as it was. However i think the idea of setting up a nationalised renewable sector to compete would be a better option and we could become the leaders in the field unconnected to, and unrestrained by, the oil and gas industry.

Regarding both though i dont think they would make it cheaper for the users as i believe we have reasonably priced energy and water prices compared to most of Europe. Again something i think the whole idea is sold on.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Davo on December 18, 2019, 04:50:45 pm
I believe (happy to be corrected) that we are pretty much the only country in the world with a privatised water industry? Not really sure why it was privatised in the first place. I am not sure that the private sector is the right organiser if this one.

I've typed three responses to this and deleted them all. Do you mind expanding on this?

To be honest I think GME’s answer covers all I think about it. I have no real fixed opinions about this. It just seems different to rail (basically lots of people rarely use the train), everyone needs water, it seems like a common good like the roads (which we all pay for via taxation) and requires massive infrastructure investment and forward planning. All of those features make me feel as if the private sector is not a good way of running the water industry.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 18, 2019, 05:06:28 pm
It’s not labours policies that lost the election - it was the leader and leadership (or lack thereof).

Re water privatisation. It’s worth remembering that this isn’t privatisation in the sense there is completion. It’s replacing a monopoly with an oligopoly (I think!). Privatisation works if the regulator is effective - informed - and makes sensible decisions. I think OFWAT is weak - and run by ex water industry officials (who arguably understand the sector - but you could argue have vested interests). 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 18, 2019, 06:07:09 pm
I work in the water industry but am afraid to say that I don't have a great understanding of the finances in terms of how we raise revenue from private investment and how this might be done differently. My area is environmental regulation. I'd like to know more if anyone has any reading to suggest.

When I first entered the company I was against the idea of privatisation because, well, it's water, right? You shouldn't make profit from that.

But. My limited understanding of privatisation is that you attract investment by selling a share of the company (you get a lump sum from the purchaser) and paying an annual dividend, from which the shareholder will hope to eventually see a profit. Kind of the same as borrowing and paying interest on the loan, right? And if the dividends are affordable and worth the investment you get then that's fine, right? I expect that if the industry had had to pay for all its capital investment from privatisation to now then it either wouldn't have happened or bills would have been significantly higher.

Is it so different from borrowing? Governments tend to be able to borrow at very low rates of interest, so maybe we'd be able to borrow at better rates than selling shares. I don't know whether this would be the case or if it would be significant.

My view of OFWAT is that they are not weak. We would like to have more money to fund all the things that we must and should do (not the same thing: we must meet environmental standards, we should maintain our asset base to minimise leakage and pollution), but OFWAT routinely give us less than we ask for. Part of that is the fair scrutiny and challenge that must come with regulated monopolies, but there is a disconnect. The Environment Agency set the environmental agenda, we must also satisfy the needs of the Drinking Water Inspectorate and the HSE, but these institutions are not OFWAT and it does feel that our regulators are asking us to do an extraordinary amount of work and OFWAT are putting the brakes on funding due to political pressure. Ultimately, if we fail to deliver because we weren't properly funded then OFWAT will simply say that we're too inefficient. Where's the scrutiny back to them to see if they allowed politics decisions overcome good judgement?

One of my concerns about nationalisation is how the company might run as a government/Council body. I have plenty of experience dealing with the Environment Agency and I would love nothing more to write a long rant detailing some of their problems. I never cease to be astounded by some of their decisions and behaviours. I really really want to write it but I post here under my real name so I shall bite my tongue. I will go as far as to say that sometimes it is like dealing with The Ministry of Truth.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 18, 2019, 06:14:23 pm
Of course the water companies could just not make any money/dividends for their shareholders 😱😃

Let’s do the same for the Police. And the fire service. And the Ambulance service.

Or chunks of the NHS - hell why not all of it!!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 18, 2019, 06:34:43 pm
I totally understand that, TT. Had we been sat here discussing this in the late 1980s I would be arguing against I privatisation - probably as a simple matter of principle. However, it's happened and given that the state would need to buy the industry back at great expense, I wonder whether it actually represents value for money since if we don't get capital privately we'll certainly have to pass the cost to the billpayer or the treasury's debt sheet. Plus the day to day working issues that go with being an arm of the state.

YW made something like Ł260m profit last year. Its a lot of money on paper, but getting rid of that isn't a magic wand that would pay for everything we need, quite apart from the fact that stopping dividends would stop investment.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 18, 2019, 06:41:17 pm
TL;DR: maybe we should/shouldn't nationalise - I don't know. But it's not as simple as nationalised good/cheap; privatised bad/expensive.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 18, 2019, 07:15:28 pm
With water the whole ‘investment’ thing is a bit of a fallacy iirc/afaik.

Water co. Submits five year plan to Ofwat (amp plan) saying we want to do x, y. z to keep things running smoothly. This will mean an extra Ł20 per bill (or even a reduction) etc... and Ofwat say yes or no. So Water co stumps up the ŁŁ to start with but then makes it all back. And makes a profit.

I dunno - there’s something fucked up if European governments own our water companies because the income is so decent...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 18, 2019, 07:27:17 pm
Thread split? The issue of privatisation is an interesting one. We talk about it most in the NHS but what does that actually mean? I think we think it means that we lose free care at the point of need, or moving to an insurance model which we obviously have to fight against tooth and nail.
People talk about Tony Blair privatising the NHS - what did he privatise and what was the impact? Is the NHS not always going to subject to some element of privatisation? They're always going to put construction contracts out to tender etc. Where is the right place to draw the line and why is that?

There's loads of doctors on here. It would be good to hear what they think about it.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: James Malloch on December 18, 2019, 07:35:41 pm
Thread split? The issue of privatisation is an interesting one. We talk about it most in the NHS but what does that actually mean? I think we think it means that we lose free care at the point of need, or moving to an insurance model which we obviously have to fight against tooth and nail.
People talk about Tony Blair privatising the NHS - what did he privatise and what was the impact? Is the NHS not always going to subject to some element of privatisation? They're always going to put construction contracts out to tender etc. Where is the right place to draw the line and why is that?

There's loads of doctors on here. It would be good to hear what they think about it.

I think of things like ambulance services being ran by a private company.  They deal with everything and the service could be of a same level, but the cost of running the service would be more expensive, thus impacting the NHS budget.

No idea how this is all run in reality but it's one example I've seen mentioned (possibly hypothetical).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 18, 2019, 07:46:12 pm
No, don’t split, it’s part of the reality around which we choose how we vote.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 18, 2019, 08:05:55 pm
Thread split? The issue of privatisation is an interesting one. We talk about it most in the NHS but what does that actually mean? I think we think it means that we lose free care at the point of need, or moving to an insurance model which we obviously have to fight against tooth and nail.
People talk about Tony Blair privatising the NHS - what did he privatise and what was the impact? Is the NHS not always going to subject to some element of privatisation? They're always going to put construction contracts out to tender etc. Where is the right place to draw the line and why is that?

There's loads of doctors on here. It would be good to hear what they think about it.

I think of things like ambulance services being ran by a private company.  They deal with everything and the service could be of a same level, but the cost of running the service would be more expensive, thus impacting the NHS budget.

No idea how this is all run in reality but it's one example I've seen mentioned (possibly hypothetical).


This isn’t necessarily the case, in fact it often isn’t.

Civilian emergency services, suffer many of the same ills that are troubling the Military right now.

If things go to plan, I’ll be taking on a role with the RN in the new year, dealing with exactly these things.

I’m going to use RN Marine engineers as an example, because that’s my bag, but you could substitute “Fireman” or “Paramedic” etc etc, into the following and it would largely read true.

There have been cut backs. The RN decided (actually the MOD forced...) to get rid of Technicians, move to a “repair by replacement” model, train the operators to swap out components and contract manufacturers to maintain etc etc.

Training an Engineer is expensive and time consuming and RN pensions are rather nice.

It doesn’t work.

People got pissed off with it not working and suddenly all the senior Engineers realised they could make more money in better conditions, outside.

Around seven years ago they reach crisis point with manpower. They utilised foreign personnel to stopgap and keep assets operational. US,Can and Aus Navy Engineers came in on loan (good training for them). That arrangement came to an end and now there is a huge crisis.

So, they have reinstated their apprenticeship scheme (like wot I did back in the ‘80s), but it takes 6 years and ~Ł750k of training to be competent/qualified (it’s an undergrad app). And thats to produce a junior Tech, and doesn’t include feeding and paying them.

That’s a junior Tech.

A senior Engineer, an Engineering Officer, takes about 12 years and almost Ł2M to produce.

And so on.

When you offload those costs to the private sector and the subsequent pension liabilities, the savings can be huge, even if the apparent “daily rate” seems higher.

This is not an in depth analysis, just an outline.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 18, 2019, 08:26:58 pm
With water the whole ‘investment’ thing is a bit of a fallacy iirc/afaik.

Water co. Submits five year plan to Ofwat (amp plan) saying we want to do x, y. z to keep things running smoothly. This will mean an extra Ł20 per bill (or even a reduction) etc... and Ofwat say yes or no. So Water co stumps up the ŁŁ to start with but then makes it all back. And makes a profit.

I dunno - there’s something fucked up if European governments own our water companies because the income is so decent...

Unfortunately here ends my knowledge. I think expected investment is factored in during the price review and bills adjusted accordingly? Could be wrong.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 18, 2019, 08:38:51 pm
That sounds very much like nursing, Matt. Cut the service and the training bursary and see training rates of nurses in the UK plummet. Fly in a load of Spanish nurses with relocation packages who are lovely but who are probably not going to stay around forever (unless of course they fall in love with Bradford's climate and culture and decide to stay).

Then make a load of campaign promises about 50,000 new nurses while wards are closing or just shut because there isn't anyone to staff them.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Paul B on December 18, 2019, 09:01:58 pm
Apologies for the delay in responding (I went climbing). Will and TomTom have given a decent amount of detail about OFWAT/AMPs etc. in the meantime.

Regarding both though i dont think they would make it cheaper for the users as i believe we have reasonably priced energy and water prices compared to most of Europe. Again something i think the whole idea is sold on.

I don't think we have 'reasonably' priced water I think we pay far less than we perhaps should. If you consider the infrastructure (and energy) required to get water from whichever catchment it happens to fall, via an impounding system, through to treatment and then a (clean water) main to your tap and then from your waste, through a sewer, to treatment (whilst also dealing with storm water) before final discharge, and that a fair amount of that infrastructure is in less than great condition, you may understand where I'm coming from.

Will mentioned the YWS profit; I remember pointing this out whenever (last year?) there was a 'dry weather event' in the NW (N.B. don't call it a drought when working for a water company or on their behalf) and everyone was kicking off about profits / wages for upper management and the fact they hadn't fixed whatever leak joe public had already pointed out to them etc.; that kind of money simply doesn't go far.

Likewise with respect to wages, there are some tough decisions to be made by these people. There's one I'm aware of which relates to the last project I worked on and I simply wouldn't want to make that call (or you'd have to pay me a significant amount of FAs).

It's a shame our paths don't cross at the board any longer as I could explain the various things I'm alluding to better.



Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: gme on December 18, 2019, 09:24:18 pm
Apologies for the delay in responding (I went climbing). Will and TomTom have given a decent amount of detail about OFWAT/AMPs etc. in the meantime.

Regarding both though i dont think they would make it cheaper for the users as i believe we have reasonably priced energy and water prices compared to most of Europe. Again something i think the whole idea is sold on.

I don't think we have 'reasonably' priced water I think we pay far less than we perhaps should. If you consider the infrastructure (and energy) required to get water from whichever catchment it happens to fall, via an impounding system, through to treatment and then a (clean water) main to your tap and then from your waste, through a sewer, to treatment (whilst also dealing with storm water) before final discharge, and that a fair amount of that infrastructure is in less than great condition, you may understand where I'm coming from.

Will mentioned the YWS profit; I remember pointing this out whenever (last year?) there was a 'dry weather event' in the NW (N.B. don't call it a drought when working for a water company or on their behalf) and everyone was kicking off about profits / wages for upper management and the fact they hadn't fixed whatever leak joe public had already pointed out to them etc.; that kind of money simply doesn't go far.

Likewise with respect to wages, there are some tough decisions to be made by these people. There's one I'm aware of which relates to the last project I worked on and I simply wouldn't want to make that call (or you'd have to pay me a significant amount of FAs).

It's a shame our paths don't cross at the board any longer as I could explain the various things I'm alluding to better.

I used the term reasonably priced to avoid being shot down. I actually think it’s really cheap. Sits about avg in the EU.
I also only said if they want to nationalise anything then water is the one they should look at. Not into nationalisation at all really.
I think most people will just happily agree to it without actually thinking about what it will do for them. Labour only ever point out the shit bits and add a bit of smash the rich rhetoric to get a where do I sign reaction.
It’s the policy they had that I really didn’t like as I don’t think it’s that important.

I think I read that if all the utilities were nationalised we would be Ł220 better off per year. Big deal and not worth the additional debt payments and liability.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Paul B on December 18, 2019, 09:35:18 pm
Rail piqued my interest (mainly because my father in law kept telling me how it couldn't be achieved as it was against EU regulations; it turns out this is inaccurate). I commute ~50mins by car to Preston. The train isn't a viable alternative really as I need to get the 1Mi to the station, take a train to Blackburn, change and then get a train to Preston (this one takes some time out on the journey). It takes 1H20 ish which is an hour a day extra. When combined with my need to go to site from time to time and working from home once a week the passes don't stack up as viable. Therefore, I choose the car. It struck me that such measures might convince more people to use the train which has other benefits (financially and green). However, I fully admit I fall into your earlier "can afford it" category.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 18, 2019, 11:51:16 pm
People talk about Tony Blair privatising the NHS - what did he privatise and what was the impact? Is the NHS not always going to subject to some element of privatisation?

I'm not a doctor, but I'm an NHS physio. Privatisation is, as far as I can see, essential to a functional healthcare service. It has been a benefit to reducing waiting lists, allowing trusts to buy services from (in theory) the best value provider. Auxiliary services such as catering, cleaning, maintenance and equipment provision seem better suited to smaller specialist services and companies, allowing trusts to concentrate (in theory...) on improving front line healthcare.
Blair managed to get new hospitals built quickly, but the fact that they were PFI contracts and not well considered meant they have ended up being poor value for money.
I briefly worked in a private hospital in Malaysia, and it was a seriously depressing experience for many reasons best summed up as the flagrant cynicism of the company that ran it. Everything seemed set up solely to extract money from people at every opportunity. Staff were encouraged to give rather pointless treatments to incur higher bills etc etc. So I'd hate to see this sort of thing, but elements of private provision are in my opinion, good.

All that said, I'm not sure many people vote on the basis of privatising anything, definitely not utilities. I really don't think most people care very much either way.

However millions of people will vote on the basis of whether the leader is funny, seems like 'one of us' or conversely, if he or she looks shit on TV or a social media video clip.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: ali k on December 19, 2019, 08:15:53 am
Of course the water companies could just not make any money/dividends for their shareholders 😱😃

Let’s do the same for the Police. And the fire service. And the Ambulance service.

Or chunks of the NHS - hell why not all of it!!

For anyone that hasn’t seen it I can highly recommend the ITV documentary ‘The Dirty War on the NHS’. Traces the history of the NHS and creeping privatisation under successive governments, and contrasts with the US system which we are moving towards. 1h45mins long but very compelling. Unsurprisingly it wasn’t allowed to be screened before the election.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: ali k on December 19, 2019, 08:43:52 am

Privatisation is, as far as I can see, essential to a functional healthcare service. It has been a benefit to reducing waiting lists

Of course this private provision wouldn’t be necessary if the NHS hadn’t been chronically underfunded. Surely this is the core strategy of stealth privatisation? Underfund the NHS. Bring in private contracts to fill the gaps/reduce waiting times. NHS becomes reliant on these companies. Then any increase in spending at a later date will proportionately be diverted to these private companies.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on December 19, 2019, 08:55:20 am
Has this been discussed before?

That’s the standard technique of privatization: defund, make sure things don’t work, people get angry, you hand it over to private capital. (https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/nhsreality.wordpress.com/2015/12/03/thats-the-standard-technique-of-privatization-defund-make-sure-things-dont-work-people-get-angry-you-hand-it-over-to-private-capital/amp/)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 19, 2019, 09:53:57 am

Privatisation is, as far as I can see, essential to a functional healthcare service. It has been a benefit to reducing waiting lists

Of course this private provision wouldn’t be necessary if the NHS hadn’t been chronically underfunded. Surely this is the core strategy of stealth privatisation? Underfund the NHS. Bring in private contracts to fill the gaps/reduce waiting times. NHS becomes reliant on these companies. Then any increase in spending at a later date will proportionately be diverted to these private companies.

I really disagree.  You're ignoring the fact that changes in demographic and social behaviour mean that a model created in the middle of the last century needs to change.  People live longer, further away from their families,  and the amounts of support,  medication and treatment either need to be severely limited,  or some degree of private provision brought in. It's just not feasible,  healthcare is an absolute money pit, there is virtually no limit on the amount of money that it could do with,  and it hasn't interfered with free at the point of delivery healthcare when it's required.  There are things that the NHS is good at like emergency care,  and things its awful at (at least in my experience) like mental health.  Why be so tied to ideology that you use a worse service if a better one can be bought in from a private provider at a comparable cost?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 19, 2019, 10:03:16 am
Toby / my experiences of NHS privatisation are not as positive.

I think there are big issues with the regulation and awarding of contracts - and outsourcing also created real issues with the loss of institutional knowledge and expertise (water industry is another case in point). I’ve had two minor ops - both outsourced - both very different to deal with and I was able to cope fine - being (comparatively young and moderately tenacious).  Someone older or less pushy would have shad a far worse experience. It’s also the little things - like at our former nursery (in a hospital) the catering had to be done by serco (because of the trust contract) and let’s put it this way, their options for 2 yo’s were not great.

It can seem easy at first to outsource something - but you need to manage it well and be on top of your suppliers all the time. So lots just slips by....

Privatising 80% of the probation service has been a total disaster too.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: webbo on December 19, 2019, 10:11:25 am

Privatisation is, as far as I can see, essential to a functional healthcare service. It has been a benefit to reducing waiting lists

Of course this private provision wouldn’t be necessary if the NHS hadn’t been chronically underfunded. Surely this is the core strategy of stealth privatisation? Underfund the NHS. Bring in private contracts to fill the gaps/reduce waiting times. NHS becomes reliant on these companies. Then any increase in spending at a later date will proportionately be diverted to these private companies.

There are things that the NHS is good at like emergency care,  and things its awful at (at least in my experience) like mental health.  Why be so tied to ideology that you use a worse service if a better one can be bought in from a private provider at a comparable cost?
Yet some of the poorest services are provided by private mental health services and these are often where the vulnerable are abused.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: shark on December 19, 2019, 10:19:00 am
A general point about privatisation. There is a distinction to be made between ownership and management.

When water, electricity etc was privatised it was run at arms length by professional managers rather than politicians. This is how it should be. Who wants a showboating politician or an incompetent like Chris Grayling actually running the railways?. However, BITD when the respective Ministers where challenged in Parliament on issues in the utilities they would hide behind the fact they were run at arms length and it was an issue for management. Even if utilities were re-privatised they would be looking to the respective industries for experienced Managers from the sector to run them so the pool of experience/talent would change. So not much would change practically.

Managers/CEOs vary in quality but have a profound effect on the businesses they run. If they are failing to perform then the owners hold them to account. The owners can be similarly variable in quality whether they are institutions such as pension fund managers or cabinet ministers if state owned.

I understand the impulse to ‘take back control’ but in general I would rather the utilities were in private ownership with the State controlling the utilities via overseeing bodies such as OFWAT etc but my reasoning only really rests on that whoever owns the utilities is unlikely to make much practical difference to their running and I’d rather the State concentrates it’s efforts on other aspects of government that can’t be sub contracted.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 19, 2019, 10:22:17 am
Toby / my experiences of NHS privatisation are not as positive.
...

Conversely,  I had an operation in the summer at a private hospital as an NHS patient,  and it was an excellent experience,  closer to where I live than the NHS equivalent, and the staff and facilities were excellent. 

Yet some of the poorest services are provided by private mental health services and these are often where the vulnerable are abused.

Can you give precise examples? I'm not saying that it always works,  and definitely not arguing for widespread privatisation.  But I don't think valuing ideology above pragmatism in wanting to provide the best possible care given available resources is the way to go. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 19, 2019, 10:25:04 am
A general point about privatisation. There is a distinction to be made between ownership and management.

When water, electricity etc was privatised it was run at arms length by professional managers rather than politicians. This is how it should be. Who wants a showboating politician or an incompetent like Chris Grayling actually running the railways?. However, BITD when the respective Ministers where challenged in Parliament on issues in the utilities they would hide behind the fact they were run at arms length and it was an issue for management. Even if utilities were re-privatised they would be looking to the respective industries for experienced Managers from the sector to run them so the pool of experience/talent would change. So not much would change practically.

Managers/CEOs vary in quality but have a profound effect on the businesses they run. If they are failing to perform then the owners hold them to account. The owners can be similarly variable in quality whether they are institutions such as pension fund managers or cabinet ministers if state owned.

I understand the impulse to ‘take back control’ but in general I would rather the utilities were in private ownership with the State controlling the utilities via overseeing bodies such as OFWAT etc but my reasoning only really rests on that whoever owns the utilities is unlikely to make much practical difference to their running and I’d rather the State concentrates it’s efforts on other aspects of government that can’t be sub contracted.

I agree. If healthcare decisions are made by fuckwits like Matt Hancock,  the NHS will collapse under his enthusiasm for health check apps, online consultations and treating the worried well.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: andy popp on December 19, 2019, 10:43:37 am
Answering Shark. Public vs. private ownership is about much more than which form of ownership might lead to "better" management - many people simply do not believe that something that could be regarded as a public good (and water is a good example) belongs in private hands, particularly where the scope for genuine market-based competition is inherently limited and the scope for the emergence of monopolies is real. Private profit from a public good is an ethical issue. And the profit motive and "competition" are not necessarily good for the consumer. Healthcare as a proportion of GDP in the US is approximately double the same figure in Germany and yet millions are still left without access to healthcare (and having dealt with the bureaucratic nightmare that is the private US healthcare insurance industry I can assure you privatisation does not guarantee leanness and efficiency).
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 19, 2019, 10:50:00 am
On a more specific election point, I've noticed that both among people who I know,  and on media reports,  that there seems to be an embarrassment to having voted conservative.  People either seem not to admit it, or to be very sheepish about it. 
I wonder how rock solid their majority is in reality,  they will have to do awfully well in the next few years to retain it is my guess.  Brexit would have to be a success and tangible improvements made to the areas that voted conservative in the old industrial north and Midlands. 
People who voted for other parties  seem to  be rather prouder about their decision,  as a point of interest. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 19, 2019, 10:59:21 am
Tom, surely we’re of a similar age (I’m 49 on the 29th).
Do you not remember how things were when civil servants ran these things?

Your food choices would have been three day old spam sandwiches or something which might, or might not, be tomato soup.

Civil services, the world over, are pretty good at administering governments and populations. They are shite at looking after individuals, even worse than Trusts and contractors are. At least contractors have to worry about losing their contracts.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: galpinos on December 19, 2019, 11:18:13 am
Auxiliary services such as catering, cleaning, maintenance and equipment provision seem better suited to smaller specialist services and companies, allowing trusts to concentrate (in theory...) on improving front line healthcare.

Funnily enough, my wife works in two South Manchester Hospitals, one who outsource auxiliary services, and one who direct hire more of their staff. The one who direct hires more, generally has those services delivered at a higher standard and, as the auxiliary staff are probably the people in patients come into contact with most, it improves the patient experience. No idea on the cost differential.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 19, 2019, 11:19:19 am
Yes - we’re ignoring the crooked awarding of contracts - ‘iffy’ tendering processes - friends of friends - former workers etc... of course this happened in the union days too (friends of the shop steward etc..).

(I know this is an old response. Sorry. Busy...)
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: webbo on December 19, 2019, 11:25:47 am
Toby / my experiences of NHS privatisation are not as positive.
...

Conversely,  I had an operation in the summer at a private hospital as an NHS patient,  and it was an excellent experience,  closer to where I live than the NHS equivalent, and the staff and facilities were excellent. 

Yet some of the poorest services are provided by private mental health services and these are often where the vulnerable are abused.

Can you give precise examples? I'm not saying that it always works,  and definitely not arguing for widespread privatisation.  But I don't think valuing ideology above pragmatism in wanting to provide the best possible care given available resources is the way to go.
Winterbourne View.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: galpinos on December 19, 2019, 11:29:16 am
Will mentioned the YWS profit; I remember pointing this out whenever (last year?) there was a 'dry weather event' in the NW (N.B. don't call it a drought when working for a water company or on their behalf) and everyone was kicking off about profits / wages for upper management and the fact they hadn't fixed whatever leak joe public had already pointed out to them etc.; that kind of money simply doesn't go far.

When it's 30% of operating costs I imagine it would go pretty far? The difference not mentioned is that is the operating profit and the reported profit for the year was Ł75 million.

Pre buy out, my company did a lot of work for UU and the manner in which the funding was released put massive inefficiency into how the work was done and really pushed costs up.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: shark on December 19, 2019, 11:35:19 am
Answering Shark.

 :wave:

Quote
Public vs. private ownership is about much more than which form of ownership might lead to "better" management - many people simply do not believe that something that could be regarded as a public good (and water is a good example) belongs in private hands, particularly where the scope for genuine market-based competition is inherently limited and the scope for the emergence of monopolies is real. Private profit from a public good is an ethical issue.

Ethics not really my forte (ladders etc) so you'll have to explain further why the 'public good' manufacture and supply of food is ethically different from treatment and distribution of water.     

Quote
And the profit motive and "competition" are not necessarily good for the consumer. Healthcare as a proportion of GDP in the US is approximately double the same figure in Germany and yet millions are still left without access to healthcare (and having dealt with the bureaucratic nightmare that is the private US healthcare insurance industry I can assure you privatisation does not guarantee leanness and efficiency).
'
Yes - I obviously wasn't making myself clear. There are plenty of examples of well run state utilities and well run private utilities. My point was that because ownership isn't of itself the driver of efficiency then, all other things being equal, I'd rather the State was less distracted by its ownership obligations to concentrate on things of greater ethical concern such as the justice system, relations with other nations etc.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: galpinos on December 19, 2019, 11:50:14 am
Rail piqued my interest (mainly because my father in law kept telling me how it couldn't be achieved as it was against EU regulations; it turns out this is inaccurate). I commute ~50mins by car to Preston. The train isn't a viable alternative really as I need to get the 1Mi to the station, take a train to Blackburn, change and then get a train to Preston (this one takes some time out on the journey). It takes 1H20 ish which is an hour a day extra. When combined with my need to go to site from time to time and working from home once a week the passes don't stack up as viable. Therefore, I choose the car. It struck me that such measures might convince more people to use the train which has other benefits (financially and green). However, I fully admit I fall into your earlier "can afford it" category.

Rail is a tricky one to get a clear picture on. As gme syas above, "there isn't much profit in it". That's the media line but how true is it? It's pretty hard to tell and the cap and collar system of target revenue* doesn't exactly incentivise quality performance yet despite this, there still a reported Ł0.25billion of dividends up for grabs a year. Add to that Network rail is nationalised and have to pay quite a lot to the Train Operating companies (TOCs) due to being underfunded and impacting on train service reliability it's a pretty cloudy picture.

East Coast Rail ran well during it's brief "nationalisation" despite Chris Grayling so it shows that there is a model to follow. It is also an easier path to nationalisation that water, as all the expensive bits* (the infrastucture) are already nationalised and they can take over the TOCs as their franchises expire.

*Obviously the fact all the rolling stock is owned by three private companies is a fly in the ointment.

*Part of the Franchise deal is a target revenue for the TOC. If they exceed it by a certain proportion, they have to pay it back to the Government. If they drop below it, the government subsidises them.

The bigger picture, however, is that moving one 80kg person about in two tonnes of private vehicle, regardless of the energy source, is not the way forward, especially in urban areas. So, public transport and active travel options need to improve to allow this change to happen.

Focusing on public transport, we need an integrated public transport system as seen across most of the rest of Europe. What exists in London (common contactless ticketing, centrally controlled public transport across the entire combined authority area, integrated systems) needs rolling out to other cities across the country. Manchester is currently attempting to start this process.

The solution for more rural communities, especially those that have turned blue, is a lot less clear. Interestingly, the Times had an OpEd/Leader yesterday calling on Johnson to nationalise buses.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: gme on December 19, 2019, 12:54:13 pm
Rail piqued my interest (mainly because my father in law kept telling me how it couldn't be achieved as it was against EU regulations; it turns out this is inaccurate). I commute ~50mins by car to Preston. The train isn't a viable alternative really as I need to get the 1Mi to the station, take a train to Blackburn, change and then get a train to Preston (this one takes some time out on the journey). It takes 1H20 ish which is an hour a day extra. When combined with my need to go to site from time to time and working from home once a week the passes don't stack up as viable. Therefore, I choose the car. It struck me that such measures might convince more people to use the train which has other benefits (financially and green). However, I fully admit I fall into your earlier "can afford it" category.

Rail is a tricky one to get a clear picture on. As gme syas above, "there isn't much profit in it". That's the media line but how true is it? It's pretty hard to tell and the cap and collar system of target revenue* doesn't exactly incentivise quality performance yet despite this, there still a reported Ł0.25billion of dividends up for grabs a year. Add to that Network rail is nationalised and have to pay quite a lot to the Train Operating companies (TOCs) due to being underfunded and impacting on train service reliability it's a pretty cloudy picture.

East Coast Rail ran well during it's brief "nationalisation" despite Chris Grayling so it shows that there is a model to follow. It is also an easier path to nationalisation that water, as all the expensive bits* (the infrastucture) are already nationalised and they can take over the TOCs as their franchises expire.

*Obviously the fact all the rolling stock is owned by three private companies is a fly in the ointment.

*Part of the Franchise deal is a target revenue for the TOC. If they exceed it by a certain proportion, they have to pay it back to the Government. If they drop below it, the government subsidises them.

The bigger picture, however, is that moving one 80kg person about in two tonnes of private vehicle, regardless of the energy source, is not the way forward, especially in urban areas. So, public transport and active travel options need to improve to allow this change to happen.

Focusing on public transport, we need an integrated public transport system as seen across most of the rest of Europe. What exists in London (common contactless ticketing, centrally controlled public transport across the entire combined authority area, integrated systems) needs rolling out to other cities across the country. Manchester is currently attempting to start this process.

The solution for more rural communities, especially those that have turned blue, is a lot less clear. Interestingly, the Times had an OpEd/Leader yesterday calling on Johnson to nationalise buses.

https://fullfact.org/news/do-train-operating-companies-earn-massive-profits/
They dont make massive profits by any stretch of the imagination. They make secure profits though but they are capped.
I am aware that profits and dividends are not the only thing and the top boys could be overpaying themselves.

My beef with the whole nationalisation thing is how its portrayed to the public and feel thats why its so well supported. All people really want is a brilliant rail network, free for user NHS, clean water when they turn on there taps and fast broadband. I dont think they are particularly bothered how that is gained.
The only issue is that they think they will get all of that just by nationalising everything and taking the profits of the fat cats which just isn't the case.

Like everything there will be a middle ground that needs a bit of both. The German and dutch rail systems are used as examples all the time and, despite what we are told, they are not Nationalised in the manner Labour proposed, but are a mix not that dissimilar to what we have with the government running the network but not the trains, they are just better at it than us.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 19, 2019, 01:41:51 pm
A quick scooby has failed to turn up rates of pay for Chairman of the British Board of Railways (or whatever it was called), but I remember the various Chairmen of the nationalised industries begin treated almost like royalty.
Were they actually so much closer in earnings to the buffet car attendant than the various CEO’s are today?

I’m at work, so not free to do a serious check.

I’m not pro privatisation, or anti-nationalisation, a little like Shark. I think there’s a balance to be struck.

Strategically, I favour the actual commodity (where there is one, such as water) to remain in public hands. I should be a little concerned when a private company or individual could legally deny another individual or the nation a staple of life.
There are similar reservations around “power” and vital infrastructure, in my mind.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on December 19, 2019, 02:50:07 pm

Conversely,  I had an operation in the summer at a private hospital as an NHS patient,  and it was an excellent experience,  closer to where I live than the NHS equivalent, and the staff and facilities were excellent. 


You were one of the lucky majority. Pilger's NHS documentatry featured a guy who said his private hospital looked lovely but had the same problem as most... when the operation went badly wrong, it nearly killed him, the NHS were left to fix things as the private hospital rarely have that cost covered (to maximise profits.......  running a hospital like a hotel is important to the private health market.... yet they don't care about a selection of on call expensive emergency consultants when the NHS will step in). If you look at costs, NHS operations are nearly always cheaper than the private ones to the point when NHS capacity is exceeded.

Roy Lilley (an ex health  advisor to Thatcher) used to point out regularly in his blogs that most private care profit needs cannot be met through current core NHS funding... he said quality will suffer in most core private providers (compared to the NHS) but this will only be picked up by the quality bodies later on... he warned about Circle and co before their services collapsed. His blogs are not anti private as such but are pro reality. People can sign up here:

https://ihm.org.uk/roy-lilley-nhsmanagers/

On Will's point, I think some quality, risk and continuity guarentee issues in core services are almost as important as the medical services........  hospital cleaning in particular. It was no coincidence in my view that the fast spread of outbreaks of mrsa etc.   correlated with the obsession on NHS savings from contracted out cleaning.
http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2016-12-21-nhs-hospitals-outsource-cleaning-‘linked-higher-rates-mrsa’

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mark20 on December 19, 2019, 07:56:00 pm
Pilger's NHS documentatry featured a guy who said his private hospital looked lovely but had the same problem as most... when the operation went badly wrong, it nearly killed him, the NHS were left to fix things as the private hospital rarely have that cost covered (to maximise profits.......  running a hospital like a hotel is important to the private health market....
My girlfriend worked on the Critical Care ward at the Northern General for a couple of years. I was quite shocked to hear one day that a patient was rushed in from a simple operation gone wrong in a private hospital, (they hadn't checked if the patient was haemophiliac and was therefor bleeding uncontrollably), they just phoned for an ambulance and leave the NHS to sort it out. But apparently things like that are not uncommon.  :slap:
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mark20 on December 19, 2019, 07:58:48 pm
Also, Will / Labour people, if I join the Labour Party will I be able to vote in the leadership election in March? Or did they change it so that only people who have been members for >6month can vote? I can't remember what became of that idea or if I just imagined it
Thanks
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on December 19, 2019, 10:24:40 pm
Mark, I think you have till sometime in January. Can't remember where I heard that.

I'm not able to check in and respond to this as often as I'd like but a couple of points that jumped out at me:

A quick point on Matt's point about private companies being able to deny access to the bare necessities. No water company can (nor would it want to) disconnect your water supply. Access to clean drinking water is a human right and a public health issue. I believe unpaid bills are treated as either bad debt (refusal to pay) which is pursued through the courts, or other debt (inability to pay) where the company helps people put together more affordable payment plans (I'm afraid I have no idea what the detail around that is).

Offwidth, are you sure you're not conflating private hospitals like Bupa where people can pay to go private (and get a private room etc) and privatised services within the NHS? Either way it's a rum do when electively private hospitals are fucking up and calling in the NHS cavalry when they do.

Sharks devil's advocate about food: there are lots of people who can grow food. Realistically in most areas there is only one body big enough to supply water and sanitation on a meaningful scale, hence the need to regulate. If there was one umbrella food conglomerate that could set prices, I suspect the CMA/government would quickly legislate to regulate.



This has been really interesting so far. What's coming through most clearly is that privatisation doesn't come in one form, it can be many many different things to fit what exactly the service is. Each model will have its own risks.

With regards health, what regulation is put in place to control costs? The CQC must still regulate the treatment, but are there rules or price caps or the like in place to prevent trusts from getting ripped off? Or is it all left for the market to sort out?

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 19, 2019, 10:37:45 pm
Pilger's NHS documentatry featured a guy who said his private hospital looked lovely but had the same problem as most... when the operation went badly wrong, it nearly killed him, the NHS were left to fix things as the private hospital rarely have that cost covered (to maximise profits.......  running a hospital like a hotel is important to the private health market....
My girlfriend worked on the Critical Care ward at the Northern General for a couple of years. I was quite shocked to hear one day that a patient was rushed in from a simple operation gone wrong in a private hospital, (they hadn't checked if the patient was haemophiliac and was therefor bleeding uncontrollably), they just phoned for an ambulance and leave the NHS to sort it out. But apparently things like that are not uncommon.  :slap:

I appreciate that, and very infrequent mistakes must happen in any system in routine operations. But it's not two totally different systems, the private provider hospital won't have an a+e department anyway. Many consultants work privately and for the NHS, and both sets of patients get exactly the same thing. I'm not saying private provision is a great thing per se, just that it seems like a useful adjunct to a functioning healthcare service.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: webbo on December 20, 2019, 09:53:42 am
One of the biggest issues for NHS trusts is making sure they might the targets set by commissioners of services. Clearly trusts need to prove they spend the money they receive for providing services appropriately but there are so many targets and the penalties for not meeting them mean reduced funding.
Trusts now have departments of administrators just to ensure this happens, to the extent that in the NHS. It is one Clinician to one admin where as in the private sector it’s one admin to 5 Clinicians. (Or it was a few years ago)
Then there is the annual cost saving trusts have to do i.e reduce their spending by a certain percentage each year on exsisting services. So they seek to provide new services even though they may not equipped to provide them. So they get funding which helps keep things running.
I worked for a team that was getting new NHS funding to expand services to enable people to be assessed and treated much quicker.
When we spoke to commissioners about when we would get the money, they said the trusts already got it. On further exploration it appeared actually no money changed hands the trust used against the cost saving. Instead of getting 100K they could reduce the cost saving by 200K.
Yet people wonder why it’s fucked
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: galpinos on December 20, 2019, 09:55:59 am
I appreciate that, and very infrequent mistakes must happen in any system in routine operations.

It's not an A&E department (plenty of non-DGHs don't have A&E) but critical care/appropriate team to deal with issues. My mum had both hips replaced on the NHS but subbed out to a local private hospital and the first thing I did was check the facitiles if things went wrong (poor), then the distance to the nearest DGH (very short) and ambulance response times (good). Private hospitals are very focused on the "service" side (catering etc) which gives very good patient feedback for minimal cost compared to having to pay specialist doctors to deal with cock ups.

But it's not two totally different systems, the private provider hospital won't have an a+e department anyway. Many consultants work privately and for the NHS, and both sets of patients get exactly the same thing. I'm not saying private provision is a great thing per se, just that it seems like a useful adjunct to a functioning healthcare service.

Private practice is an odd mix. Plenty of the doctors do both and the only difference is the hospital/experience being nicer but some doctors are 100% private. I was flicking through channels on the telly and stopped on a programme about "Harley Street" only for my wife to see a former colleague who had failed to get a Consultant Post being described a s world leader in his field (he wasn't).

My opinion is that at current levels of funding and the general British appetite for increased taxation (low), private practice will be required for "quality of life" procedures and services. This is a more expensive route than doing it via the NHS (an amazingly efficient organisation bearing in mind it's size and fragmentation) but the electorate aren't willing to properly fund it*.

*or anything really. We want better schools, hospitals, public transport but no one is willing to put their hand in their pocket and pay. If Labour really want trans formative public sector services, they need to run on the policy that we ALL need to pay for them. The richer will pay more, but everyone needs to chip in and just demonising the well off if a sure fire way to entrench division and lose votes IMHO.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on December 20, 2019, 10:30:55 am
Agreed.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on December 20, 2019, 10:47:12 am
My main experiences were diagnosis and treatment for skin cancer (which turned out to be benign).

Doctors referral > call centre >> arrange appt at random surgery in S Manchester >> take photos of dodgy looking bit >> wait >> call centre >> letter >> appointment letter >> call centre (x 5 to arrange appointment)

>> minor surgery in room in random local GP’s (with zero sound proofing - I pointed out to nurse and doctor that I could hear word for word what he said to the previous patient (including her name and address). Anyway - surgery went well.
>> next day stitches split - 10 p size open hole in my back. Call centre useless - went to minor injuries.
>> 5x daily visits to minor injuries (I got to know them well) to pack out wound
>> no response or accountability for my complaints or issues.

Basically - I was ok and managed to hustle the process along as I was insistent and pushy. The ‘old lady’ example would have waited months for anything to be done...

Also - the call centre (in London) dealt with sensitive and potentially hurtful news/data and when relaying the news that I did not have skin cancer the guy on the phone didn’t give a shit (reading from screen) and there was loads of laughing and people arsong about in the background. Twice - I asked to speak to a supervisor and told them of this.

And this is my biggest gripe with outsourcing stuff like this. When it works - it’s fine. Great. But there is little or no accountability - tracibility or recourse. It’s just another company’s problem. With in NHS stuff I’ve had one consultant ring up another (at another hospital) and tell them in front of me what they’ve done wrong. They know each other - and how each other operates. I posted something about this earlier in the thread (institutional memory) and it’s really important to how a large organisation operates. Continuity in people and practice makes things far more efficient. Rather than a switchboard at a call centre logging your enquiry.

This is what’s happened in the probation service (wife’s former profession) and from some of my research in the water industry (and repeat with many other examples ime sure).

Sorry for the semi rant -
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 20, 2019, 12:43:49 pm
Good reply Nick, I agree, people in general always say that they want better public services, especially health. They say that they're willing to pay for it, but always when it comes to an election, they vote for whoever is saying that they'll cut taxes.

At what time does this thread need to be mothballed and restarted as a politics thread? I notice that in today's parliament debate the SNP is providing rather better opposition than certainly the labour front bench. Corbyn now seems to be hanging around like a bad smell and serving as a  general Tory punchbag.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on December 20, 2019, 01:03:14 pm
Just change the thread title?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: shark on December 20, 2019, 01:21:05 pm
Re Labour "period of reflection" some interesting comment in the Times yesterday based on a new short book (https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781786612939/Warring-Fictions-Left-Populism-and-its-Defining-Myths) about the beliefs of the hard Corbynite Left.

It makes the point that the Far Left populism (same can be applied to the Far Right populism) does not fall down on their policy ideas as much as their attitudes. The way they understand the world and communicate their vision is hindered by three destructive myths hypothesised in the book as the Dark Knight, the Puppet Master and the Golden Age that are at odds with how the world actually works and operates.

Dark Knight - struggle between light and dark, good and evil, leaving tick marks etc. From this springs a belief that those who disagree with you are not only wrong but immoral. "Tories are all scum" etc 

Puppet Master - making sense of a world where what you are doing is right and in the peoples interest but somehow doesn't gain traction can only mean that hidden powerful forces are against you - Billionaire Media owners, BBC, George Soros, Global Zionist conspiracy etc. This goes 'hand in glove' with the notion that government is omnipotent and politics is easy rather than a messy shifting business of compromises and priorities.   

Golden Age - that there was a better time once with Corbynite Left blaming that we only moved away from it because of the neo-Liberalism and Thatcher

Though it was interesting but not interesting enough to buy the book. thought a lot of it resonated with a lot of the intolerant black and white stuff I've seen on social media over the last few years

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on December 20, 2019, 01:50:15 pm
A book about over-simplication which simplifies things into archetypes.

Post-modernism at its best. Cool.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on December 20, 2019, 02:07:44 pm
That sounds like it quite accurately describes the worldview of a few people I know in N.Wales who are ‘enthusiastic’ anti-social media reporters of their opinions.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on December 20, 2019, 10:51:07 pm
An interesting perspective on how / why various constituencies were won or lost,
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/12/labour-knows-where-it-lost-isnt-clear-who-it-lost
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: winhill on December 23, 2019, 10:22:24 pm
Interesting to see more Labour figures in the news today blaming their Brexit position for the defeat. I’m sure someone somewhere has done the maths, but:
- back a second referendum and lose leave backing northern seats.
- back leaving without any further referendum and lose your metropolitan remain supporting seats?

Hard to think of a strategy besides the compromise they went for that would have satisfied all the previously Labour areas.
The obvious thing to do, if you were Remain, was to get out and try to convince Leavers in your vulnerable seats that Brexit was a bad idea. They had 3 years to do this! Only Corbyn's wanky lukewarm support for Remain stopped this. There was a BBC programme, or a section, with a report from Sutton in Ashfield. They had a sort of truth and reconciliation thing, trying to bring both sides of the party together. Local MP Gloria de Piero of course, left the party due mounting intolerance and the seat fell to the Tories. The gap between the 2 sides was huge, Leave Labour members talking of betrayal etc. If that was party members they should have realised that it would be worst among Labour voters without party loyalty.

Although in post poll surveys voters said Corbyn was the problem, not Brexit by a ratio of more than 2 to 1.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on December 28, 2019, 11:56:51 pm
Interesting article on issues around Corbyn’s suitability as leader of the LP. Deftly sums up a lot of issues raised during the election. Written in 2015.
https://thequietus.com/articles/18714-jeremy-corbyn-labour-election-rally-policies
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on January 16, 2020, 01:36:22 pm
A final reminder of some seats lost by well under 1000 votes, many with good moderate Labour MPs,  the majority as progressives couldn't bring themselves to vote Labour, even with the very real threat of Boris as an altenative. Hopefully this might get progressives in marginals to think more carefully about tactical voting next time (and stop blaming working class Labour voters in the north who switched to the tories).
 
High Peak... Ruth tops my list as a moderate and a supporter of interests in common with the BMC. Lost by under 600 votes with nearly 4000 voting Lib Dem and Green.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Peak_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Carshalton and Wallington... Tom, a good Liberal MP, lost by just over 600. Labour polled over 6000.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carshalton_and_Wallington_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Gedling... Vernon was a well known leading moderate in my next door constituency, lost by less than 700, with over 4000 voting Lib Dem or Green.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gedling_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Bury North.  Labour lost  by only just over a hundred with over 2000 voting Lib Dem or Green.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bury_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Heywood and Middleton.. Jim Callahan's old seat... Labour lost by under 700 lib Dems and G4eens over 3000
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heywood_and_Middleton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Kensington..... Labour lost by 150 with Sam Grimah over 9000... genuine 3 way seat with misleading local polling so forgivable.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kensington_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Wimbledon another 3 way: Lib Dems lost by just over 600 with Labour over 12000
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wimbledon_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Blyth Valley... Labour lost...  just over 700 majority, over 3000 voted  Lib Dem or Green.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blyth_Valley_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Bolton NE... Labour lost by under 400 with over two and a half thousand voting Lib Dem or Green
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolton_North_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Bury South.. Labour lost by just over 400 with 3000 voting  Lib Dems or Greens (and the old Labour MP who stood as  Independent getting just over a thosand).
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bury_South_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Moray  SNP lost by just over 500. Well over 4000 voted Labour or Lib Dem
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moray_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Plus one important one closer to the thousand:

West Aberdeenshire: majority under 900, SNP lost, over 8000 voted Lib Dem or Labour
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Aberdeenshire_and_Kincardine_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

There are another 20+ with majorities where tactical voting could have helped, with some big tory scalps, and leaving Boris with a thin majority (where his back benchers might at least have been tempted to curtail some of the dafter party ideas)


Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on January 16, 2020, 03:13:23 pm
Thanks Offwidth, that will make a useful resource for those searching to be told what they should think, when they log in to UKGBB's 'general election 2024' thread.


There are another 20+ with majorities where tactical voting could have helped, with some big tory scalps, and leaving Boris with a thin majority (where his back benchers might at least have been tempted to curtail some of the dafter party ideas)

Perhaps take solace that, in an infinite multiverse with infinite different paths branching into infinite different outcomes for every moment, somewhere out there in one of those universes Corbyn is PM..
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on January 16, 2020, 04:03:52 pm
Thanks Offwidth, that will make a useful resource for those searching to be told what they should think, when they log in to UKGBB's 'general election 2024' thread.


There are another 20+ with majorities where tactical voting could have helped, with some big tory scalps, and leaving Boris with a thin majority (where his back benchers might at least have been tempted to curtail some of the dafter party ideas)

Perhaps take solace that, in an infinite multiverse with infinite different paths branching into infinite different outcomes for every moment, somewhere out there in one of those universes Corbyn is PM..
But only one.

The majority of people, both amongst progressives and those on the right of the political spectrum, decided the risk if a Con gov under Bojo, was better than the risks of a Corbyn lead government.
I really don’t think a rerun of the election tomorrow, would produce a significantly different result.

Labour needs to get it’s act together and accept that this is  not a population eager to embrace socialism.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on January 16, 2020, 04:39:33 pm
Socialism under Jeremy Corbyn OMM...

I think many people would be fine with many socialist policies - if it looked like the person to implement them was credible.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on January 16, 2020, 04:47:26 pm
Socialism under Jeremy Corbyn OMM...

I think many people would be fine with many socialist policies - if it looked like the person to implement them was credible.

Aye.

Mine was more of a flippant statement than a considered analysis, of course.
But the current leadership election appears to indicate a lack of self awareness and inability to learn, on the part of Labour.

Socialism? Or socially responsible? I seem to recall the former is rather extreme and oppressive of the individual. Where it has been fully implemented in the past, it has crumbled under the almost universal discontent of the populations subjected to it.

Regardless, such policies beed to be drip fed into the consciousness of a population. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on January 16, 2020, 05:05:04 pm
I've always struggled with the term "socialism" because I have no idea what it means. I suspect it's a term that will be fought over bitterly by people who are variously more or less left wing.

"No, my politics is socialism! You're a communist/neoliberal/blue Labour/red Tory/waving the red flag to defeat the red flag etc etc etc".
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on January 16, 2020, 05:30:21 pm
Indeed - it’s often taken as a pejorative term in the US.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on January 16, 2020, 08:43:53 pm
I wouldn't underestimate how toxic it is to some people here. Particularly those who lived through the cold war observing Stalinism unfold in the East. It seems ridiculous, but I once mentioned the Labour party in front of my grandmother (a quiet, very kind, small-c-and-large-C-conservative woman) and she actually gasped and whispered in horror "the socialists". Funny and sad at the same time.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: teestub on January 16, 2020, 09:06:29 pm
Red peril!
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on January 16, 2020, 09:07:32 pm
Red peril!

Reds under the bed Tim! Watch out Will - they'll come and get you in the night...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on January 17, 2020, 12:33:02 am
Thanks Offwidth, that will make a useful resource for those searching to be told what they should think, when they log in to UKGBB's 'general election 2024' thread. Perhaps take solace that, in an infinite multiverse with infinite different paths branching into infinite different outcomes for every moment, somewhere out there in one of those universes Corbyn is PM..

We will wait and see in the next few years how Boris goes, as I will use it as a marker if things go very badly. I wanted it on the record that progressives in these marginals who should have realised how real and present the danger was from Boris and his government were the main voters who let us down badly.... far more guilty than northern workers (whom so many progressives blamed), who were rather abandoned by their so called natural party. The votes numbers show the result would have been very close if extensive tactical voting had happened. The majority of voters were progressive by several percent but their vote was split in a way that benefitted Boris (except for Scotland).

The serious risks of Corbyn being PM after this election were always a complete myth. His hands would have been tied by his own MPs even in the incredibly unlikely event he made it with a majority. In a minority, any deal would have most likely have seen the end of him. Well educated progressives who saw the Crobyn risk as being worse than Boris risk were the stupid ones in this election and not many pundits are looking at the data and saying that.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: spidermonkey09 on January 17, 2020, 08:47:05 am
I wouldn't underestimate how toxic it is to some people here. Particularly those who lived through the cold war observing Stalinism unfold in the East. It seems ridiculous, but I once mentioned the Labour party in front of my grandmother (a quiet, very kind, small-c-and-large-C-conservative woman) and she actually gasped and whispered in horror "the socialists". Funny and sad at the same time.

I find this really interesting, as its definitely a reasonably widely held view among that generation. The thing is, aren't we indulging it with a silly amount of respect by even talking about it? Its a clearly ridiculous point of view to hold (not having a go at your grandparents as mine would be very similar!). On a par with saying 'Johnson is a Nazi' etc etc.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Nutty on January 17, 2020, 09:48:35 am
Thanks Offwidth, that will make a useful resource for those searching to be told what they should think, when they log in to UKGBB's 'general election 2024' thread. Perhaps take solace that, in an infinite multiverse with infinite different paths branching into infinite different outcomes for every moment, somewhere out there in one of those universes Corbyn is PM..

We will wait and see in the next few years how Boris goes, as I will use it as a marker if things go very badly. I wanted it on the record that progressives in these marginals who should have realised how real and present the danger was from Boris and his government were the main voters who let us down badly.... far more guilty than northern workers (whom so many progressives blamed), who were rather abandoned by their so called natural party. The votes numbers show the result would have been very close if extensive tactical voting had happened. The majority of voters were progressive by several percent but their vote was split in a way that benefitted Boris (except for Scotland).

The serious risks of Corbyn being PM after this election were always a complete myth. His hands would have been tied by his own MPs even in the incredibly unlikely event he made it with a majority. In a minority, any deal would have most likely have seen the end of him. Well educated progressives who saw the Crobyn risk as being worse than Boris risk were the stupid ones in this election and not many pundits are looking at the data and saying that.

It's all very well castigating progressive voters who didn't tactically vote the way you wanted them to, but as you say even if the seats you identify had voted tactically, we'd still have a Conservative government.

Maybe we should have an electoral system where a majority voting for progressive parties doesn't deliver a huge Conservative majority? Maybe one where a vote cast in Na h-Eileanan an Iar isn't worth 5x as much as a vote cast in Bristol West? Maybe one where the value of your vote isn't diminished by living in a politically engaged area - a vote cast in Kingston upon Hull East where turnout was 49.3% is worth over twice as much as one cast in Richmond Park where turnout was 78.7%. Perhaps one where Conservative voters aren't represented 22x more than Green voters?

So continue castigating voters for not voting tactically if you want, or maybe consider that it's fucking astonishing that anyone actually engages with such a farce.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on January 17, 2020, 09:58:44 am
I wouldn't underestimate how toxic it is to some people here. Particularly those who lived through the cold war observing Stalinism unfold in the East. It seems ridiculous, but I once mentioned the Labour party in front of my grandmother (a quiet, very kind, small-c-and-large-C-conservative woman) and she actually gasped and whispered in horror "the socialists". Funny and sad at the same time.

I find this really interesting, as its definitely a reasonably widely held view among that generation. The thing is, aren't we indulging it with a silly amount of respect by even talking about it? Its a clearly ridiculous point of view to hold (not having a go at your grandparents as mine would be very similar!). On a par with saying 'Johnson is a Nazi' etc etc.

I think its anecdotal and largely irrelevant. Despite the cold war socialism did pretty well in the UK. For eveyone with that attitude there will be old people out there who still hate Maggie.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on January 17, 2020, 10:22:20 am
I think new labour did a pretty good job of detoxifying socialism from the 70-80’s.

It seems that Momentum is reversing that to the older generation in part.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on January 17, 2020, 10:26:03 am

It's all very well castigating progressive voters who didn't tactically vote the way you wanted them to, but as you say even if the seats you identify had voted tactically, we'd still have a Conservative government.

Maybe we should have an electoral system where a majority voting for progressive parties doesn't deliver a huge Conservative majority? Maybe one where a vote cast in Na h-Eileanan an Iar isn't worth 5x as much as a vote cast in Bristol West? Maybe one where the value of your vote isn't diminished by living in a politically engaged area - a vote cast in Kingston upon Hull East where turnout was 49.3% is worth over twice as much as one cast in Richmond Park where turnout was 78.7%. Perhaps one where Conservative voters aren't represented 22x more than Green voters?

So continue castigating voters for not voting tactically if you want, or maybe consider that it's fucking astonishing that anyone actually engages with such a farce.

That's not quite true about my views. Firstly, I most likely expected with more sensible tactical voting  the government would have been tory anyhow, but it was still possible on the numbers for a hung parliament without looking for silly distributions. Secondly, my main castigation of some progressives is those blaming northern working class tory voters and insulting them. On the failure of progressive tactical voting I'm just deeply sad and I really hope I'm wrong about how bad Boris will turn out to be (as otherwise a lot of people will get hurt).

Its a fact that most progressives have simply not embraced tactical voting and yet that's (in my view) the only likely way that the electoral system can be reformed in the next decade... you can be sure the tories won't do it.  In the next election boundary changes give the tories a bonus of about an extra 20 majority on their current majority on a smaller number of seats (down to 600)

I think UK electoral reform is vital for maintaining trust in our democratic system,  so if the current FPTP system is fucked why be a lemming and vote for the most preferred candidate in a marginal? ... the Brexit party voters understood this and mostly voted tory in nearly all the marginal seats.

I'm also gutted for the likes of Ruth in High Peak and Vernon in Gedling, good moderate Labour MPs who did good stuff and who should have been a shoe-in with a moderate level of tactical voting.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on January 17, 2020, 11:06:04 am
In defence of offwidth - I thought his post was really highlighting how close it was in many seats - and how choices to tactically vote or not made a real difference. To the positive and negative.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on January 17, 2020, 11:13:56 am
I wouldn't underestimate how toxic it is to some people here. Particularly those who lived through the cold war observing Stalinism unfold in the East. It seems ridiculous, but I once mentioned the Labour party in front of my grandmother (a quiet, very kind, small-c-and-large-C-conservative woman) and she actually gasped and whispered in horror "the socialists". Funny and sad at the same time.

I find this really interesting, as its definitely a reasonably widely held view among that generation. The thing is, aren't we indulging it with a silly amount of respect by even talking about it? Its a clearly ridiculous point of view to hold (not having a go at your grandparents as mine would be very similar!). On a par with saying 'Johnson is a Nazi' etc etc.

I think its anecdotal and largely irrelevant. Despite the cold war socialism did pretty well in the UK. For eveyone with that attitude there will be old people out there who still hate Maggie.

Aaarrggh!

The Labour party just lost, again, after 10 years in opposition to the most bizarrely inept, scandal prone and divided Government of the post war era, because of exactly that “anecdotal” and “irrelevant” attitude.

If anything, the Labour party is and has been “irrelevant” to everything that has happened for the past decade (including failing to reach a discernible position on the most important issue since the last World War) and they look to be about to crush themselves even further into the margins.

The Labour party does not represent the people of Britain. Until it does, it will languish.
Pretty sure, I’ve mentioned before, one of the biggest problems with Labour and it’s activists, is the constant patronising of the public and berating of anyone not a Tory diehard, for not being lefty enough.

We are in this position because Labour were not a fit opposition, not because people didn’t vote “correctly”.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on January 17, 2020, 12:25:24 pm
Some more seats that could have gone differently with varying degrees of progressive tactical voting on the actual numbers, starting from from the worst example: Ynys Mon, to the unlikely but numerically possible with a margin.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ynys_Môn_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watford_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warrington_South_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cities_of_London_and_Westminster_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finchley_and_Golders_Green_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chipping_Barnet_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Cambridgeshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bridgend_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southport_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheadle_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truro_and_Falmouth_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winchester_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clwyd_South_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wycombe_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_West_Durham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewsbury_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derby_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheltenham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chingford_and_Woodford_Green_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burnley_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birmingham_Northfield_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guildford_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hitchin_and_Harpenden_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wrexham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reading_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hazel_Grove_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hendon_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Electoral Calculus provide a data file for those who want to play with the numbers.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/electdata_2019.txt

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on January 17, 2020, 12:39:29 pm
I wouldn't underestimate how toxic it is to some people here. Particularly those who lived through the cold war observing Stalinism unfold in the East. It seems ridiculous, but I once mentioned the Labour party in front of my grandmother (a quiet, very kind, small-c-and-large-C-conservative woman) and she actually gasped and whispered in horror "the socialists". Funny and sad at the same time.

I find this really interesting, as its definitely a reasonably widely held view among that generation. The thing is, aren't we indulging it with a silly amount of respect by even talking about it? Its a clearly ridiculous point of view to hold (not having a go at your grandparents as mine would be very similar!). On a par with saying 'Johnson is a Nazi' etc etc.

That may very well be, but not talking about it doesn't stop people thinking it!


I think new labour did a pretty good job of detoxifying socialism from the 70-80’s.

It seems that Momentum is reversing that to the older generation in part.

I'd be willing to stake a decent sum that no Momentum activist and only a small percentage of the population at large would recognise Blair's Labour as a socialist government.

In fact, I think I was only dimly aware of the word until Miliband took office.

Sorry, I don't really have a bit point to make here other than that Labour's problem is more about the presentation of its policies and how it chooses to label them, than it is about the policies themselves (notwithstanding that the 2019 manifesto was a step too far for most). I think we probably agree on that.

More grist for the mill. The bloke who cuts my hair despises Tony Blair more than literally anyone else in Western politics and doesn't believe Corbyn to be a socialist. He happily stated that he would prefer a Johnson government to a Blair government  :slap:
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on January 17, 2020, 12:57:11 pm

I think its anecdotal and largely irrelevant. Despite the cold war socialism did pretty well in the UK. For eveyone with that attitude there will be old people out there who still hate Maggie.

Aaarrggh!

The Labour party just lost, again, after 10 years in opposition to the most bizarrely inept, scandal prone and divided Government of the post war era, because of exactly that “anecdotal” and “irrelevant” attitude.

If anything, the Labour party is and has been “irrelevant” to everything that has happened for the past decade (including failing to reach a discernible position on the most important issue since the last World War) and they look to be about to crush themselves even further into the margins.

The Labour party does not represent the people of Britain. Until it does, it will languish.
Pretty sure, I’ve mentioned before, one of the biggest problems with Labour and it’s activists, is the constant patronising of the public and berating of anyone not a Tory diehard, for not being lefty enough.

We are in this position because Labour were not a fit opposition, not because people didn’t vote “correctly”.

Up front you are deliberately equating two factors unfairly: the attitudes of the old to all socialism and the specific attitude to the form demonstrated (but not implemented)  under Corbyn. That attitude was Corbyn's fault not socialism's fault. Post war socialism gave us the national health service and many other good things, despite being under the financial national cosh (as the americans felt we were following a dangerous ideology). In particular I see no such problem with the attitudes of the old towards the soft Socialsm as practiced under Blair.

I'm happy with how anyone votes, that's democracy, but if ..... some progressives bang on about how they want the end of FPTP and vote in a way that maximises the chances of it staying; and some blame the result mainly on the northern working classes voting tory...... I will call them out. Its not just progressives ...plenty of traditional tory wets can see the danger of Boris as well and all those who 'knew' about the risk but didn't vote tactically may now live to regret being wound up about Corbyn (who was never going to gain the power to achieve his muddled and overcomplicated  plans). As the non progressive total was just under 47% the progressive majority was over 6% but because those people chose not to vote tactically Boris got his huge majority.

I would agree that the Labour leader and most of the shadow cabinet were not a fit opposition but most of the Labour MPs most certainly would have been with a better leader. Why blame the Labour moderates for Corbyn... they did their best to remove him.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on January 17, 2020, 01:19:35 pm
You still seem unwilling to accept the simple concept that Labour in its current guise were, in the opinion of the UK public, unelectable.

'People bang on about FPTP but vote in a way that maximises the chance of it staying'. Because the issue of not having FPTP was deemed less bad than the prospect of electing Labour in its current guise.

'Plenty of traditional tory wets can see the danger of Boris as well and all those who knew about the risk but didn't vote tactically': Because the issue of 'the Danger of Boris' was deemed less bad than the prospect of electing Labour in its current guise.

That is how shit-awful public opinion was of Labour/Corbyn. Labour were too awful to win, despite everything.

The Conservative party lost 4% of those of voted for them in 2017, but a significant number of them didn't switch to Labour.
Labour lost 8% of those who voted for them in 2017, and a significant number of them switched to the Conservatives.

You could reflect on that, accept it and move on and stop dreaming of alternatives that didn't happen.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on January 17, 2020, 01:31:34 pm
Honestly Offwidth, you are way off base.
That sentiment was echoed by people from “decrepit” to “Forty-something-and-working-class”.

I know it’s hard and you believe what you are saying.
But...

Again...

Labour did not represent me or most people I know.
They did not represent or appeal to a majority of the population.
They still don’t.

Who’s fault is Corbyn then?
You say it wasn’t Labour/Socialism who lost, but Corbyn?

If this is the case, the situation is even worse. You’re saying the Labour party is controlled by Demi-gouges and their ideology at the expense of representing either it’s members or the voting population at large (which is pretty much what everyone else has been saying for years (did someone mention Len M?)).

I get it.

You are a thoughtful person with a strong moral compass and kind soul.
None of that description applies to the Labour party of the last decade. 
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Will Hunt on January 17, 2020, 01:41:35 pm
I'm just frustrated that Steve keeps coming back to this issue like it's the single biggest issue, or like it's the principle reason that we are where we are. There was plenty of tactical voting going on, and perhaps if there was less so then the result would have been even worse. You are never going to achieve 100% tactical voting. Why not ask why the Labour party chose such a doomed path? Why not ask why they didn't agree to progressive alliances with the Greens and the LDs?

Consider also that it is not only the left who vote tactically. Some of the people interviewed in this article had wanted to vote for the Brexit Party, but they chose to vote Conservative in order to be on the safe side - they could not tolerate Corbyn in power.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/15/blair-old-seat-sedgefield-rejected-corbyn-perceived-unpatriotic

In short, the train has crashed and you are blaming the passengers when it's patently obvious that the driver carries the bulk of the responsibility.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tommytwotone on January 17, 2020, 01:44:02 pm
I don't think any of this is beyond doubt statistically - but isn't the point that Labour are meant to find a leader / policy / values combination so popular that they don't need to rely on tactical voting to prevail?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Oldmanmatt on January 17, 2020, 01:50:38 pm
I think Will makes the right point.
The Elephant in the room is the division amongst all those not Tory (the Brexit Party I’m classing as a temporary aberration, a small scale schism for the duration, already defunct). There are marginal, rightwing, extreme, parties, but they are insignificant.

Labour lurched out to a point where it failed.
It left all of the centre left homeless.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on January 17, 2020, 02:34:41 pm
I don't think any of this is beyond doubt statistically - but isn't the point that Labour are meant to find a leader / policy / values combination so popular that they don't need to rely on tactical voting to prevail?

If I was being satirical I might postulate that 'small c' conservative working class Labour voters should know their place  so that progressives could vote how they really wanted without letting the tories in.

The hung Parliament was clearly possible given the progressive vote numbers and their distribution. With that we missed we missed maybe the best chance ever for a change in UK voting systems, as it seemed to me to be very likely part of any deal.

UKB is the most progressive 'bubble' I'm involved with (even more so than academia) and even here the obsession with Corbyn negativity almost matches that of Boris negativity: when looked at as a risk-consequemce perspective this was dumb anywhere. There was almost no risk of Corbyn getting his own way but the combination was always huge for Boris.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on January 17, 2020, 03:17:20 pm
But people generally vote for someone to win - rather than because they are less bad than the other person and if they win the election they would never be pm...

Labour need to get back and listen to Blair’s point that is as important now as it was in 1995:

In order to affect change they have to be in power. To get into power they have to win the centre.

I now know no-one who supports Corbyn - even corbynista cousins now see him as a busted flush. I fear that any candidate with Momentum’s approval will basically be tarred as continuity Corbyn.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on January 18, 2020, 11:44:28 am
I know people do that. It was foolish for those progressives in marginals when faced with an increased chance of a Boris government as a consequence and a reduced opportunity of electoral reform as a loss, but forgivable. What's not so forgivable is those progressives who did that and then given the result, blamed others for the same action and insulted their intelligence for doing it.

Boris' s 'one nation' government announced today (whilst distracting the population with big ben bong bollocks) that there would not be regulatory alignment in brexit, so we are back again to a high economic risk of no deal in December, more delays, or at best a small chance of a hard brexit, and they say as a bonus they are going to double economic growth. This also removes the fetters of EU regulation for fairness to voters, enviromental and climate protections etc. They already plan judical reform to allow more leeway for UK politicians to do bad shit and the removal of A&E targets (one area they are vulnerable)...

Shark's optimism upthread talked about moderation from Boris to aid his electoral chances next time. What I suspect Boris is signalling, with the latest noises about hard brexit, is that he will take the easier route of chasing popularism, and in the background fix the game ... the question then becomes how far towards Hungary or Poland is he prepared to go.

Because of the size of the majority, the boundary changes (that are expected to gift Boris a 20 seat bonus on a 10% smaller Parliament) and the split progressive vote seemingly not going away any time soon (as tactical voting is clearly too unpalatable for the refined tastes of too many), the Labour leadership is almost certainly a sideshow, as getting to a majority position by next time would seem very unlikely and we are back to a hung Parliament at best and deals between progressive parties. Blair didn't win his majority on his own, the tories imploded as well, and there was no SNP dominance of Scotland. We will have to hope by the time progressives have their next chance to elect a government which will act on their behalf that the dice haven't been loaded against them in advanced.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on January 18, 2020, 05:51:54 pm
Blair didn't win his majority on his own, the tories imploded as well, and there was no SNP dominance of Scotland. We will have to hope by the time progressives have their next chance to elect a government which will act on their behalf that the dice haven't been loaded against them in advanced.

Actually Blair did win on his own. The conservatives were in a poor state, but possibly not as bad as 2017, and Corbyn couldn't win then.
Labour could just really sort out a good argument for how to run the country better, stop banging on about radical change and socialism and make themselves credible for a start. As others have said, most people aren't interested in radical change or socialism, and would like to have good schools and hospitals, job opportunities, the roads mended, and a quiet life.
If RBL keeps banging on about socialism and wins, they're screwed whatever voting system you use.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on January 18, 2020, 06:35:34 pm
What he said ^^

RLB is just a continuation of project Corbyn, albeit a bit less overt on the Jew-hating thing. And what tomtom said.

Abolishing the Lords and creating an elected senate has a lot to recommend it. Unless you want to regain the trust of the electorate of course, in which case directing energies into appearing calm, competent and credible might be the better strategy.

If virtue-signalling to the left is more your thing than gaining real power, then of course, it’s just the ticket.

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on January 18, 2020, 07:43:07 pm
Interesting article about Blair/Thatcherism. Begs the question what the political centre is; ie what values does that look like in practice?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on January 19, 2020, 11:42:19 am
Blair didn't win his majority on his own, the tories imploded as well, and there was no SNP dominance of Scotland. We will have to hope by the time progressives have their next chance to elect a government which will act on their behalf that the dice haven't been loaded against them in advanced.

Actually Blair did win on his own. The conservatives were in a poor state, but possibly not as bad as 2017, and Corbyn couldn't win then.
Labour could just really sort out a good argument for how to run the country better, stop banging on about radical change and socialism and make themselves credible for a start. As others have said, most people aren't interested in radical change or socialism, and would like to have good schools and hospitals, job opportunities, the roads mended, and a quiet life.
If RBL keeps banging on about socialism and wins, they're screwed whatever voting system you use.

I really think you are massively oversimplifying matters. As I said: there was no big majority for the SNP; despite numerous problems (you really are clueless comparing Major's travails with the self inflicted idiocy of May)  the tories had closed a huge gap to just above 10% on the pre-vote polls (new Labour new danger anyone???), with only the Scum from the tory press backing Blair; plus the referendum party (Brexit version -1) took 2.6% of the vote in the election.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_United_Kingdom_general_election

We watched the election results with our academic Labour party member next door neighbours, all of us political spods,  and until the exit poll played out we didn't expect such a large majority so I don't see how you did..... we were all mightily pleased with the result, finally delivering on where Labour had moved to (albeit it became new Labour under Kinnock and cemented it under Smith). I was also personally pleased to see the Lib Dems do fantastically well in that election, as a natural social liberal.

Socialism simply wasn't denied under the early New Labour government, it was just modified, in a broad party (not so dissimilar to the  PLP when Corbyn became leader... hence the problems he had with them). 

I do agree RLB looks likely to continue the disastrous and deluded performance of Labour; but history indicates it's the leader after the one who is currently elected who will be important in winning any subsequent majority (if Labour ever achieve that again). However, demographics still indicate the majority proportion of UK progressive voters is likely to increase slowly in the next decade. So, outside Scotland most will remain frustrated for a while under FPTP, especially given boundary changes. To change FPTP we probably need a hung parliament with a progressive minority goverment,  or Labour to move back to the centre and change their views on reform, or a party in the centre to take over from Labour in England and Wales (not likely in several elections).

Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on January 19, 2020, 12:32:56 pm
Sorry, article  here
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/18/blair-thatcher-legacy-labour-zarah-sultana
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on January 19, 2020, 04:18:10 pm
Phil McDuff is far too Corbyn friendly to entirely trust as an opinion writer in my view.

https://www.theguardian.com/profile/phil-mcduff

New Labour did loads to improve things after two decades of tory governments (link below). Plus in the same vein you could just as easily argue the tories in the 50's built on Labour's post war socialist legacy of the NHS etc.

https://fullfact.org/economy/labour-inequality-1997-2010/......  assessing the Blair institute claims on Twitter

https://mobile.twitter.com/InstituteGC/status/1139525097880981504
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: mrjonathanr on January 19, 2020, 04:57:14 pm
Phil McDuff is far too Corbyn friendly to entirely trust as an opinion writer in my view.
https://www.theguardian.com/profile/phil-mcduff

It's not the objectivity/accuracy of the argument I'm looking at. '40 years of Thatcherism' is silly, but the question is valid, what should centre-left policies look like?
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: tomtom on January 19, 2020, 06:10:46 pm
This will sound trite - but it’s not meant to be. It depends on where the centre ground is...
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: TobyD on January 19, 2020, 11:38:35 pm


I really think you are massively oversimplifying matters. As I said: there was no big majority for the SNP; despite numerous problems (you really are clueless comparing Major's travails with the self inflicted idiocy of May) 

I think this is a bit unreasonable, I wasn't saying they were equivalent, if Major was having a 5/10 bad time with the eurosceptic contingent, May was having a 11/10 bad time. She has made a lot of poor decisions in her political life, but wasn't all bad, and I think that calling people idiots is the sort of political comment that the country doesn't need. I agree with you that fptp is a terrible system, but it's what we've got for the foreseeable future, and that the ability and flexibility of a Labour leader to work with other parties is likely to be more important than any notion of ideological purity.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: Offwidth on January 20, 2020, 10:35:15 am
I think Will makes the right point.
The Elephant in the room is the division amongst all those not Tory (the Brexit Party I’m classing as a temporary aberration, a small scale schism for the duration, already defunct). There are marginal, rightwing, extreme, parties, but they are insignificant.

Labour lurched out to a point where it failed.
It left all of the centre left homeless.

It's about choices. I made the point, way up thread, huge numbers of ex Labour voters and swing voters were lost long ago to the tories, due to Corbyn  (and/or Corbyn propaganda). They had already chosen and were always going to vote that way (forgivably so in my view). Yet the data shows the route to a hung Parliament via tactical voting was still possible for progressives (those who actually didn't vote tory, and ditto for the tory wets who switched sides in their vote), those who could see beyond Corbyn, knowing he was always going to be irrelevant in any result in this election in terms of gaining any significant power. I know full well many progressives did vote tactically (and had done before ) but the proportion clearly didn't increase this time (getting close to a hung parliament didn't need anything like all progressives to vote tactically either).  Even within a loss some really good moderate Labour and Lib Dem candidates lost seats to the tories because a small percentage of extra progressives (or wets) chose not to vote tactically and frankly any of those progressives blaming that choice on being politically homeless thanks to Corbyn is pathetic simplistic defeatist nonsense. 600 voters for Ruth in High Peak from those 4000 who voted Lib Dem probably could have been swung by the climbing and hillwalking community alone.

This wasn't a normal election. Boris and his government are potentially an existential threat to the UK, with more than enough power to implement that potential. The scare factor to me isn't just their politics but that they have transformed into a governmemt of blatant unapologetic liars and avoiders of accountability (almost Trump like). A claimed to be 'one nation government' that are pursuing: an ideological hard brexit against the interests of the country and the state of the union; the promises of exagerrated NHS money and staff they know they can't use to provide real change given the consequencies from their other poor choices;  continued austerity for much of our crumbling public sector after a decade with no relief; no interest in tackling climate change and still providing a home for deniers; complete opposition to electoral reform. In this context a split progressive vote (from a 6% majority)  WAS a massive opportunity missed in choices made.  This isn't all about the actual voting either,  as many powerful people who knew the threat of Boris should have chosen to try and stop him earlier or to say more in the campaign .. the media, the business interest groups,  the professional groups. Like Max Hastings did as his old boss. Instead, because of choices by well educated experts, he got the easiest ride to election victory that I can remember for any modern tory leader. Listening to the CBI whingeing yesterday, as it dawns on them what is going to happen to many of their members, is closing that stable door way too late.

Why go on about it??? Well, it's part anger and part learning from  mistakes to try to avoid repeating them next time.
Title: Re: 2019 December General Election
Post by: petejh on January 20, 2020, 05:20:53 pm
Somebody change the record this is getting boring.

Also, am I the only one to find your consistent use of people's first names when referring (presumably) to MPs annoying and odd? I've never met 'Ruth, Vernon or Tom', I wouldn't know them from Adam (or Eve) if I did. Why post their names in the familiar. They're not to the large majority of people reading this website.

Robin says hi btw. (MP for aberconwy..)
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