UKBouldering.com
the shizzle => shootin' the shit => Topic started by: SA Chris on January 14, 2021, 10:28:03 am
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Love that someone is prepared to take punts like that. I must admit to being totally risk averse!
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Any interest in starting an investing thread? Could be general, or targeted at stuff more palatable to many on here - EVs, new battery tech, low carbon energy etc. (although much money to be made from the mining required to make these technologies work).
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Any interest in starting an investing thread? Could be general, or targeted at stuff more palatable to many on here - EVs, new battery tech, low carbon energy etc. (although much money to be made from the mining required to make these technologies work).
Yes :goodidea:
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/r/ClimbingWallStreetBets coming right up :lol:
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buy high, sell low.
But most importantly hodl.
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Any interest in starting an investing thread?
Pete’s big tips?
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buy high, sell low.
this. Lemme just get my referral links ready :alien:
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Any interest in starting an investing thread?
But yeah, I would be interested in this. Although I wouldn't have much to contribute.
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Any interest in starting an investing thread?
Yes interested, although my investing is based much more around macro trends than looking at individual stocks, and my risk profile is considerably lower(!) than yours.
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Can we book out a big lecture theatre somewhere? Get Pete to stand at the front and get us all whipped up and then we'll all start shouting "SEIZE EVERY SALE, CLOSE EVERY DEAL" etc. Then we'll each get handed a hundred copies of "North Wales Limestone" to flog with the promise that we'll be making $2000 a day.
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“Pete’s Predictions”
Sagely stock market sureties from UKB’s pivotal contrarian fiscal genius PeteH.
😁
Though Ponzi starts with a P too... ;)
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Can we book out a big lecture theatre somewhere? Get Pete to stand at the front and get us all whipped up and then we'll all start shouting "SEIZE EVERY SALE, CLOSE EVERY DEAL" etc. Then we'll each get handed a hundred copies of "North Wales Limestone" to flog with the promise that we'll be making $2000 a day.
;D yeah but we have to buy the books from Pete first and can't flog them on Amazon
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Which company was/is it?
(Off topic)
Greatland Gold was the biggie.
I’m also doing well with a small British company called Ilika that grew out of Southampton university research, they have patents on their solid state battery technology, and hope to be producing solid state batteries for EVs and other uses like IoT.
If/when solid state batteries can be commercially produced it will be the next evolution for EV and internet of things. The brexit EU trade deal was actually good for this - as a direct result from 2024 vehicle manufacturers must source at least 50% of vehicle parts from within the UK or EU. Because batteries are too heavy to be easy to mass transport it means the UK is rushing to ramp up domestic EV battery production. Ilika has benefitted from a government programme to support production at scale.
Nickel sulfide miners also doing very well out of the EV revolution, due to the increasing amount required for the battery cathodes.
And many believe Tin will be the fastest growing commodity in the coming EV and tech evolution due to the amount required in chip boards. Shortages currently in the US. (off topic)
Nice looking 2 year chart for Greatland - good find!
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As suggested.. For people to share info, ideas and experiences from the investing world.
Nothing posted on this thread constitutes investment advice!
Don't believe anything you read here, except this bit ;)
Do always do your own research.
And never forget the investment world is full of people whose job is the skilled pumping or shorting of stocks by playing on your fear, greed and FOMO. They don't care if you lose all of your investment.
I'll add stuff later concerning the various topics/sectors that I've focussed on and built up knowledge of over the last twenty years of investing.. some successes and many failures. Hopefully somebody might find something interesting which leads them to research more about it.
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Ah hadn't noticed this.. just started a new thread..
Mods could you either merge this with the new thread, or delete the new one?
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Nice one for opening the floor Pete. Will be interesting to hear a different group of people's views. I have briefly dipped in and out of discussions/threads on various investment forums but always found them a bit too much.
To reiterate, nothing posted here is advice. Unless it comes good, then I will want commission.
A lot of my friends often ask me about my investment strategies/options as they are coming to the age (late 20s) where they suddenly start to think that racking up cash savings might not be doing them a lot of good long term. So I thought I would outline here what I usually say to them, in case it is of interest or use to anyone. Sorry if any/all of this is stating the obvious.
My investments generally sit in three tiers. Tier 1 of very low risk/boring stuff that I have no control ever. My workplace pension and managed portfolios (e.g. Moneyfarm, Nutmeg etc.). Not very exciting but useful as a slow burner base.
Tier 2 is the bread and butter. Usually low to medium risk investment funds focused on varies sectors/locales. I find this is where I seem to invest best, where I invest most, and what I will hopefully use to retire on. I think this stuff is pretty hard to fuck up if you're in it for long enough and diversify well.
Tier 3 is the speculation stuff and what I guess is probably of most interest here. Think what Pete did but with nowhere near the same levels of commitment! I have been slowly doing more of this recently though with the view at my age (late 20s) I can afford to take on more risk than I was previously doing. I have had various degrees of success with this, ranging from the utterly disastrous to the mildly successful. I have never put more than 0.75% of my total assets into any one deal, although this has slowly been creeping upwards. I can guarantee I will never do anything on the level of what Pete has done. I am full of admiration, while being totally aware that I would have called him a complete and utter fool for doing so beforehand.
I usually focus on small, innovative tech/engineering (often UK) companies, mainly as it is what I am most familiar with and find things easiest to research/gauge. Companies like Ilika that Pete mentioned in the other thread are the sort of thing I like. I'll try to remember to post things up as and when I come across them. Interested to hear what people are up to and interested in.
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For the speculation stuff I'm always interested in how it gets onto people's radars.
Are you actively researching this stuff and if so how? Trawling the whole AIM index for opportunities would seem like a full time job.
Currently amazed by the state of the US stock market - I thought Tesla looked overpriced 6 months ago.
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I’ve made 200% on a modest Bitcoin investment at the beginning of 2020. Got out a bit too early and it’s since gone up even more but hey ho.
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Unpaid author to Millionaire in 6 years. It could be you.
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I’ve made 200% on a modest Bitcoin investment at the beginning of 2020. Got out a bit too early and it’s since gone up even more but hey ho.
You should never fully leave crypto
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Any thoughts on the looming stock crash due to the all the money printing going straight into investing?
I've got a stocks and shares isa with triodos impact fund (selected companies that fit with their sustainable development / renewables goals) and its up 18% since July. (actually, more than that but I put more in in October, and it's up 18% on total investment).
Sold a load of ethereum that I was "gambling" on early in the year after some sustained rises and then a worrying drop, could face the stress of keeping an eye on it. Should have just let it sit and ignored it but hey, we all have to make decisions at some point!
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Yeah I sold mine in early Dec keen to finally lock in some profit. Should have left half of it in. Lesson learned!
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All the money printing is a main driver of why Bitcoin is so strong.
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Be interested to know if anyone still has any good recovery stock ideas at this late stage.
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I saw it was at a big dip in march , and had some that I'd sat for 2 years (bought at a stupid time). Decided to double up as the promise of Proof of Stake seemed (and still seems) like a positive development. At one point I was fully "up" on my total amount committed, but then I got reactive (should have had a strategy and stuck to it), then I got fucked by a whale when it dropped 20% and rebounded minutes later, hitting my stop loss.
Started chasing trades and then just slowly got more pissed off. Totally became gambling behaviour, had a word with myself, sold it off and walked away. Fucked off that it's tripled in value since then, but hey ho.
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That sounds familiar to my experience with crypto and day trading in the past.
Got sick of watching the prices all the time. Became all consuming.
Never dabbled much though.
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Ah hadn't noticed this.. just started a new thread..
Mods could you either merge this with the new thread, or delete the new one?
Merged :thumbsup:
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Interesting thread! I have dabbled in and out of investing over the last 10 years based on disposable income and motivation but have got back into it in the last year or so. Like a lot of people I don't have a strategy per se but I try and convince myself I am making an informed decision! When you move away from safe lower yield investments it is more of a mindset of not being too risk adverse, having no emotional attachment to money and having enough that you can afford to lose some. My goal is to try and increasingly cover my current consultancy day rate with investments but I am a long way away from that at the moment. I have achieved that more and more this year but still way too infrequently. Sometimes I will make double in a day and other days nothing or minus.
From the mindset perspective it can often be seeing opportunity when 95% of the population see problems or risk. For example, when the Coronavirus started impacting Europe I start investing in the main contenders for vaccine development. When the press started reporting the issues with storing and distributing the vaccine I invested in firms with cold storage and distribution capabilities. However, I find it hard to get into that mind set and often you look back in hindsight and realise you missed a good opportunity.
Sometimes it is good too look at the broader trends and popular stocks e.g. Tesla, and think about other stocks that could go up in association rather than investing in Tesla itself. I avoided Tesla as I came in too late and it looked like a bubble to me. However, I thought with the wider trend in EV development it would be good to invest in lithium stocks so pumped a load of money into that. I was even invited to vote for the board meeting of Chemical and Mining Co. of Chile the other day!
At the moment I am just investing in different types of stocks each month with as much as I can save. This month was semi-conductors and next month will be bio-tech! I also read that the Swiss stock exchange is opening up to the UK in a bilateral deal so bought some stock on that as it might get pumped up next month when it opens up to London.
Most of the stuff I am investing in is too diversified to make high daily yields but I will probably hold most for up to 3 years or longer. Most of my biggest day earnings have been trading crypto swings. Buying dips in stuff like Stellar, XRP Ripple and Ether and selling on the rise. It has been more guess work of when to sell but I seem to be way less greedy than other people I know who do similar and get out way before them.
Having said all that my mate who just put all his money in TSLA has made 5 times more than me so I am probably wasting my time!
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Maybe slightly off topic but what platforms are people using? I have so far stuck to the usual biggies (HL, II, IG) just because they are known beasts. Have people tried the zero commission/fee sites such as e-toro, trading 212 etc? Are the spreads acceptable? Any other issues to consider?
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I hold a few stocks but trade fairly infrequently. I just use my banks stock trading service for simplicity. Almost certainly not the cheapest but convenient, if I was making regular trades I’d probably take a closer look but for now it just works.
For crypto I am using CoinCorner which seems very expensive. I’m looking to move but not sure what to... lots of “can’t get your money out of them” stories... any recommendations?
I got wiped out a bit at the end of 2019 (not through investing, just a “life” financial whammy) coupled with corona based work issues meant 2020 didn’t have much free money to work with.
I have some boring steady investments that will do nothing exciting or alarming over the next however many years but should keep growing over the long term.
I made half a dozen punts during Covid, most have gone up 50-100% since I invested. A couple of finance companies and EasyJet I managed to buy at the very bottom.
Bloody Costain has remained flat, I hope it will eventually get going but for now it’s my bogey investment.
All my investments are fairly small. I’ve stuck to FTSE250 and above companies.
I also have a stake in a private company that may be getting floated soonish perhaps... this is hopefully my equivalent to what Pete has done, but probably not....
Bitcoin has been my biggest winner by far, a generally long term approach has multiplied my initial investment several times over. Trading on the volatility has been less successful, probably just breaking even tbh. Wish I’d been in a position to invest more when I started, don’t think I’d have maxed out a credit card (bold move Pete) but would certainly have put in the bulk of “spare cash” had there been any... hey ho.
I’m a very very small fry investor, having a bit of fun with no real idea what I’m doing. If I make a bit all well and good, but can lose it all with no great ill effect.
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For crypto I am using CoinCorner which seems very expensive. I’m looking to move but not sure what to... lots of “can’t get your money out of them” stories... any recommendations?
For crypto to fiat I use coinbase. I think they charged me about 0.8% for my recent sales, but at the rate prices are changing that value is just lost in the noise. Once in GBP it's free and instant to transfer the money to my bank account, which is great.
For non-fiat trading, Binance still seems to be the most popular. That's what I used in the past, although having gone back to it this year their current UI feels a bit messy.
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Wish I’d been in a position to invest more when I started, don’t think I’d have maxed out a credit card (bold move Pete) but would certainly have put in the bulk of “spare cash” had there been any... hey ho.
Fucked off that it's tripled in value since then, but hey ho.
Got out a bit too early and it’s since gone up even more but hey ho.
Rule no. 3 of investing:
Don't think about woulda, coulda, shoulda.
But I agree, hey ho.
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Boring I know, but for the most part people are just better off buying things like this;
https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/index-tracker-funds
Its too much work investing in individual stocks, and often we just buy stocks we've heard about - which usually means the gains have already been had.
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Is the above spam first post and a link to buy something.
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hahaha nah, it's just a link to a brokerage site. Hargreaves Lansdown
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I bought a whole bitcoin for approx $400 around 2013/14. Did it on my work computer and email. Computer got nicked and I couldn’t remember the exchange I used. C’est la vie. :wall:
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Maybe slightly off topic but what platforms are people using? I have so far stuck to the usual biggies (HL, II, IG) just because they are known beasts. Have people tried the zero commission/fee sites such as e-toro, trading 212 etc? Are the spreads acceptable? Any other issues to consider?
I always used coinbase, and coinbase pro for day trading getting my self stressed.
I'm done on crypto until PoS is released, might consider joining a staking pool. Maybe we should have a UKB Ether Staking Pool? 32 ETH required iirc.
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I bought a whole bitcoin for approx $400 around 2013/14. Did it on my work computer and email. Computer got nicked and I couldn’t remember the exchange I used. C’est la vie. :wall:
Could be worse
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jan/14/man-newport-council-50m-helps-find-bitcoins-landfill-james-howells
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As chance would have it I read this description of Bitcoin yesterday: “Imagine if keeping your car running 24/7 produced solved Sodukus that you could trade for heroin”.
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Almost 3 years old but worth a watch:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6iDZspbRMg
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I bought a whole bitcoin for approx $400 around 2013/14. Did it on my work computer and email. Computer got nicked and I couldn’t remember the exchange I used. C’est la vie. :wall:
Could be worse
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jan/14/man-newport-council-50m-helps-find-bitcoins-landfill-james-howells
And
https://www.newsweek.com/man-has-two-login-attempts-left-access-220-million-bitcoin-before-its-all-lost-1560984 (https://www.newsweek.com/man-has-two-login-attempts-left-access-220-million-bitcoin-before-its-all-lost-1560984)
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Can anyone recommend a good guide/literature for getting into investing? Been thinking about it the last few years as we started to have a little more disposable income. Really keen to learn more.
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As chance would have it I read this description of Bitcoin yesterday: “Imagine if keeping your car running 24/7 produced solved Sodukus that you could trade for heroin”.
That’s a funny description.... the Heroin bit is downright wrong in its implication...
I was having a twitter discussion with a colleague last week about the energy used to produce bitcoin - in comparison to their precious things. I think (I really can’t be arsed to check) but BTC is about about 30% of the energy used to refine and smelt gold (though the energy used to make aluminium is approximately 3 times that for gold!).
Gold is a good comparison to BTC IMHO, there is a limited quantity on our planet - ever dwindling in supply and the cost of extraction is rising accordingly. This really only covers Gold as a currency or item of desire, as gold does have some industrial uses whereas BitCoin is worthless if you can’t spend it!
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As chance would have it I read this description of Bitcoin yesterday: “Imagine if keeping your car running 24/7 produced solved Sodukus that you could trade for heroin”.
That’s a funny description.... the Heroin bit is downright wrong in its implication...
I was having a twitter discussion with a colleague last week about the energy used to produce bitcoin - in comparison to their precious things. I think (I really can’t be arsed to check) but BTC is about about 30% of the energy used to refine and smelt gold (though the energy used to make aluminium is approximately 3 times that for gold!).
Gold is a good comparison to BTC IMHO, there is a limited quantity on our planet - ever dwindling in supply and the cost of extraction is rising accordingly. This really only covers Gold as a currency or item of desire, as gold does have some industrial uses whereas BitCoin is worthless if you can’t spend it!
Precisely why I feel Ethereum (using Proof of Stake), is vastly superior than Bitcoin. Bitcoin mining takes 77 TWH/year. UK total electricity consumption is 323 TWH/yr. Bonkers!
I'm almost tempted to buy a small amount again (less than last time) and take it offline in a cold wallet and ignore it. I very nearly did that in June and really wish I had.
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Can anyone recommend a good guide/literature for getting into investing? Been thinking about it the last few years as we started to have a little more disposable income. Really keen to learn more.
Not sure on literature (there's probably loads out there) but lots of platforms allow you to open a demo account to have a play and get a feel for things without actually having to put down your cold hard cash.
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Almost 3 years old but worth a watch:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6iDZspbRMg
Great video that, thanks for sharing. The advertisement for a pump and dump scheme is jaw dropping! Do that with equities and you'll be going to prison.
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Can anyone recommend a good guide/literature for getting into investing? Been thinking about it the last few years as we started to have a little more disposable income. Really keen to learn more.
Not sure on literature (there's probably loads out there) but lots of platforms allow you to open a demo account to have a play and get a feel for things without actually having to put down your cold hard cash.
Thanks, wasn't aware of that. There's certainly a wealth of information out there so the main thing I'm interested in is a deeper dive on strategy etc 😀 When it comes to things like this I have a tedency towards hardcore geeking out before doing anything 😆
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Can anyone recommend a good guide/literature for getting into investing? Been thinking about it the last few years as we started to have a little more disposable income. Really keen to learn more.
Not sure on literature (there's probably loads out there) but lots of platforms allow you to open a demo account to have a play and get a feel for things without actually having to put down your cold hard cash.
Demo accounts might be useful for getting to grips with how the given platform works, but they're really not designed for learning about investing at all.
Mischa - I'd recommend Boring Money as a good place to start. Loads of useful info on getting started.
https://www.boringmoney.co.uk/
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I'll post up quite a few long posts over the next week or so. To start I'll highlight my biggest investing disasters as I think most investors who get into it seriously are going to experience losses as well as gains and it's the losses that teach you best. Don’t worry, I’ve had many significant wins too! I’ll add some info on current good ones later.
I’ve grown my experience over the years and learned about which different styles of investing suit me best. I mainly focus on what interests me the most, and I love to research. My main focusses are the junior mining and exploration sector: gold, copper, silver, nickel and zinc; innovate tech companies involved in the forthcoming green revolution (more later), and small biotech. I'll go into them in another post.
But first the significant losses!..
I started investing in my twenties during the dot.com bubble of the mid-late 90s. New communications and data handling infrastructure was springing up in all major cities to support the internet age. I didn't have much of a clue about investing to begin with, just liked the idea of trying to turn my money into more money. I invested £8k in a fibre optic company named Fibrenet, they were rolling out fibre-optic carrier ring networks in London and Frankfurt. My investment rose to £36k within a year or two, I had no idea about what a fair value for the company was, and no idea about the markets, sentiment, or fundamentals or anything really. I just assumed the shares would continue to go up like those big companies did. Two years or so later the shares crashed down to earth when the bubble popped and I eventually sold out for the almost exactly what I’d paid for them. The ‘London Carrier Ring and ‘Frankfurt Carrier Ring’ still form part of the backbone of internet connectivity in those cities today I think.
Rubicon. This is one of the most infamous recent stories in the gold mining industry. Rubicon were a Canadian gold miner and owner of the Phoenix project in Red Lake Ontario. In late 2014 I bought in on hype as they approached the milestone of first production, I built my investment to approx £30k. All was looking rosy – many very large institutional investors were conned too – but things turned sour overnight when the company released an updated resource estimate in late 2015 which downsized the mine’s resources by 80%. The stock crumpled, investors lost hundreds of millions – including many Canadian pension funds. I still own my Rubicon shares today, they’re currently worth £52. Rubicon changed their name to Battle North Gold and they are on track for first gold pour from the phoenix mine later this year, with a very much reduced size of resource..
Interestingly, I noticed that an Irish gold mining company, called Conroy Gold, last year hired a new non-exec director of exploration, one Howard Bird. The same director of exploration in charge at Rubicon at the time it went sour. Conroy are flying due to their discovery in NI and joint venture, but I won't be touching them.
Story of Rubicon here: https://financialpost.com/commodities/mining/lessons-from-the-meltdown-of-rubicon-minerals-corp
https://www.northernontariobusiness.com/industry-news/mining/rubicon-minerals-seeks-to-bury-a-dubious-past-2360805
Molycorp. I built up £25k in this US rare earths miner between 2014-2015. The shares were on a roll due to China restricting global sales of rare earths and increasing demand from the green energy and defence industries in the US. However Molycorp soon began to struggle, due to China changing policy and allowing cheap rare earths to be ‘smuggled’ onto the market. Also my research was inadequate - I failed to understand that the rare earths Molycorp were mostly mining, Lanthanum and Cerium, were the cheapest and least in-demand elements in contrast to much more valuable neodynium and prasodymiun (plus others) that are rocking horse shit in comparison and in demand for alloys and powerful magnets used in defense and green energy.
Also, processing of the rare earths involved sending them across the Pacific to Chinese processors, as the US was and is poorly equipped for rare earths processing. Something the US DoD is currently trying to change via development deals with other rare earths companies in the US. The Chinese turned the screw and Molycorp went bust in 2017. I lost every penny but really should have heard the music far sooner. Part of the story here: https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2019/11/12/the-collapse-of-american-rare-earth-mining-and-lessons-learned/
The lessons learned for me were that proper in-depth research is crucial, and to know the product and its worth.
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Tier 3 is the speculation stuff and what I guess is probably of most interest here. Think what Pete did but with nowhere near the same levels of commitment! I have been slowly doing more of this recently though with the view at my age (late 20s) I can afford to take on more risk than I was previously doing. I have had various degrees of success with this, ranging from the utterly disastrous to the mildly successful. I have never put more than 0.75% of my total assets into any one deal, although this has slowly been creeping upwards. I can guarantee I will never do anything on the level of what Pete has done. I am full of admiration, while being totally aware that I would have called him a complete and utter fool for doing so beforehand.
Hey Rob.
I can't tell the full story here for fear of incriminating, but just to say I wasn't flying totally blind. You can use your imagination.. Luckily when the opportunity presented itself I'd learned enough over the past 20 years to know what I was looking at, and knew that it wasn't the type of opportunity that comes along in many lifetimes of investing. So I was pretty confident with the risk. Also if I'd lost everything it wouldn't really have put me on the street, I'd have been OK. I think these opportunities probably float past us fairly often but it's impossible to see them or make use of them most of the time.
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Can anyone recommend a good guide/literature for getting into investing? Been thinking about it the last few years as we started to have a little more disposable income. Really keen to learn more.
Not sure on literature (there's probably loads out there) but lots of platforms allow you to open a demo account to have a play and get a feel for things without actually having to put down your cold hard cash.
Demo accounts might be useful for getting to grips with how the given platform works, but they're really not designed for learning about investing at all.
Mischa - I'd recommend Boring Money as a good place to start. Loads of useful info on getting started.
https://www.boringmoney.co.uk/
Thanks, that looks really useful! Time for a geeking sesh...
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Pete - no, that makes sense. Was meant to be tongue in cheek! Guess what I was saying is that I don't think I could ever get to the point where I could put everything into one investment. I'm impressed you had that level of certainty and confidence in your decision making ability.
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I can't tell the full story here for fear of incriminating, but just to say I wasn't flying totally blind. You can use your imagination..
I'm imagining insider trading :-\ . I hope I'm wrong
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Can anyone recommend a good guide/literature for getting into investing? Been thinking about it the last few years as we started to have a little more disposable income. Really keen to learn more.
Benjamin Graham’s Intelligent Investor is the value investors bible.
For growth shares Philip Fishers Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits is a classic
One up on Wall Street by Peter Lynch is lighter reading
Not read it (would be over my head) but maybe Accounting for Growth by Terry Smith would be interesting for you as an expose of the tricks public companies use to flatter their financial reporting
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Be interested to know if anyone still has any good recovery stock ideas at this late stage.
Not very racy but VLE (Volvere) is a cautious turnaround operation with a great track record of buying distressed companies cheaply turning them around and selling them for multiples of the purchase price. They have recently raised a lot of money through a placing so have a sizeable war chest to take advantage of the current market conditions. There is a lot of downside protection as their market cap is roughly equivalent to their ‘true’ NAV. There is a great thread on ADVFN if you want to look into it further. Because of some recent stupid rules it’s classed as a complex investment (it isn’t) so you can’t buy it in an ISA. I hold mine in a SIPP. It’s by far my largest holding.
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I hold mine in a SIPP
Anyone have any recommendations for best SIPP platforms or are they all much of a muchness?
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I can't tell the full story here for fear of incriminating, but just to say I wasn't flying totally blind. You can use your imagination..
I'm imagining insider trading :-\ . I hope I'm wrong
I'm imagining scuttlebutt
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I hold mine in a SIPP
Anyone have any recommendations for best SIPP platforms or are they all much of a muchness?
I use Hargreaves Lansdowne and the service has been good when I've used their brokers to trade illiquid AIM shares. If I was opening one now Id probably go for AJ Bell as its cheaper. Don't know any others.
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As chance would have it I read this description of Bitcoin yesterday: “Imagine if keeping your car running 24/7 produced solved Sodukus that you could trade for heroin”.
I only bought it out of curiosity to see how the whole crypto thing worked and then forgot about it for several years. It was only a long time afterwards I remembered when they suddenly surged in value and I’d changed jobs by then so my email account would be long gone. The whole crypto currency thing is well fishy.
Also... what Habrich just posted is spot on. I work inside a lot of companies and the P/E ratios for many are way out of wack. We’re living in a QE/debt/stupid-money fuelled bubble at the moment in my opinion.
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I've got a fair bit of my savings (as mentioned) in a stocks and shares isa, on a managed fund. Its a bit higher risk, small tech and sustainable innovations etc.
Now, we think there's a bubble and therefore a big correction due?
I've got maybe 40% of my savings in plain old savings accounts. Considering overpaying some mortgage, but also considering holding some cash to buy some stocks if things go low.
Happy to ride out a dip on my s&s isa, but wondering if that's the best plan?
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The whole crypto currency thing is well fishy...
We’re living in a QE/debt/stupid-money fuelled bubble at the moment in my opinion.
:-\ :lol:
I've posted this before but if you don't get the joke have a read of this:
https://breedlove22.medium.com/money-bitcoin-and-time-part-1-of-3-b4f6bb036c04
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Thanks Habrich, more nuanced than my late night after wine broad brush opinion. I'd also argue it's tech-adjacent firms to watch out for too. Ocado vs. Tesco for example. When a CEO announces 'We're not an automobile/office rental/gardening/airline/hotel/supermarket business, we're a technology business' they're chasing those frothy valuations.
<Off topic, sorry Pete> Thanks JB, I'll have a read of that later. Perhaps similar to this (https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v38/n08/john-lanchester/when-bitcoin-grows-up)?.
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Not at all similar, remember that piece and it's great but doesn't really leave you any clearer on the point or practice of crypto.
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Is this whole thread just a bit part in Pete’s own pump and dump scheme? :-\ How many other forums across the Internet have had this mining company’s name just casually dropped into the conversation? :lol:
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For the speculation stuff I'm always interested in how it gets onto people's radars.
Are you actively researching this stuff and if so how? Trawling the whole AIM index for opportunities would seem like a full time job.
Thought I'd add info about some of the ways I research information.. but firstly it should go without saying that anyone who invests based solely on something said by an anonymous stranger on the internet probably deserves to lose their money.. I only use the methods below as launching points for my own research.
LSE forum
A bit like UKB / UKC for shares.. with all the good and bad points. LSE has some brilliant very knowledgeable and relatively transparent contributors; it also has more than its share of truly dire posters involved in childish bickering and name-calling, pumpers, fear-mongers and others with their own agendas. If you get a free account you can simply use the filter so that you focus on what the most useful posters have to offer. These days I just click on the posters I know to be knowledgeable and don't waste my time on the rest. If anyone's interested I can list the best 15 or so knowledgeable posters from the GGP chat page. Once you work out who are the helpful people you'll often pick up on other companies of interest through them.
I completely avoid ADVFN, life's too short for that shit.
Private Telegram investing groups
Some of the shares I invest in have private investor's groups on Telegram. These can work well for sharing info and hopefully avoid a lot of the bickering that goes on from more widely-used LSE forums. I often get sight of private broker research notes and investment bank analyst's reports intended for clients only via private telegram groups.
On the GGP telegram group we keep one step ahead of the company's official interim exploration drilling updates by using Sentinel satellite images updated every 5 or so days to keep track of the movement of the drill rigs out in the Aus desert.
Twitter
I'm don't use twitter for anything else but it's good for investing. It can be overwhelming as there are many, many bull-shitters on there, so I limit myself to following just 6 or 7 people for technical analysis of charts who've proved themselves legit over time. Twitter is excellent for technical chart analysis if you find the good people. I limit myself to people who've proved themselves over the years and I only follow people who are prepared to back-test their TA calls and are happy to show when they get it wrong as well as when they called it correctly. I only use charts/TA to back-up my own research, never on its own except for bitcoin/crypto - which in my experience behaves well for using TA to make investment decisions as crypto isn't news-driven as much as growth companies are. Finally I always try to find at least two people's TA predictions for a company, but sometimes this isn't possible for small niche shares.
My TA skills are limited but I've found just by following others I've learnt the basics of fib levels for rises and retracements, convergences, and recognition of the common patterns. I'm interested in learning more about harmonics and fib levels.
People I follow are:
Northstar (https://twitter.com/Northst18363337) is my go-to for TA on gold, crypto and GGP. Many other shares that I don't follow. Claims to be a professional meteorologist.. dunno, but his TA predictions are very good.
Saharascharts (https://twitter.com/SaharasCharts) for gold, crypto, GGP, others. Batshit crazy god-botherer but good charts.
Swazerscharts (https://twitter.com/SwazersC) mostly for his take on GGP, but loads of other new ideas. He's pretty good despite not caring about having a clue about the fundamentals of the companies he's looking at.
PamplonaTrader (https://twitter.com/TraderPamplona) for general mining sector - great knowledgeable poster, I get a lot of my trading ideas from Pamplona and he's brave enough to share his top 10 picks at the start of a year and then review how they did at the end.
Not so much for technicals but for general research, I also follow:
Justin Waite (https://twitter.com/SharePickers) for Ilika, TWD and other new ideas
Paddygall (https://twitter.com/paddygall1) for Greatland Gold. Bit of a ledge among investors of GGP. He's good at finding out snippets of info.
There are a lot of pumpers and dumpers on twitter - beware! The names above are genuine and transparent, and Pamplona is particularly good for calling out bull shitters. I'd avoid investing in any mining stock off the back of any hype by the likes of characters such as David Lenigras.. there are many others like him.
Regards learning TA I've had the follwoing two books recommended to me:
Fibonacci trading
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Fibonacci-Trading-Master-Price-Advantage/dp/007149815X
TA for Dummies
https://www.amazon.co.uk/s?k=technical+analysis+for+dummies&adgrpid=52869440106&gclid=CjwKCAiAo5qABhBdEiwAOtGmbjpbJVyoVupEN4rGMfe6o9H5YUW2CLJzJny3zdkYiD4r-ZSQMbVl6RoCNpEQAvD_BwE&hvadid=259110088303&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=1007423&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=e&hvrand=11836469511504809676&hvtargid=kwd-299008182620&hydadcr=18518_1817325&tag=googhydr-21&ref=pd_sl_1ejvk3kegp_e
Newsletters
I subscribe to one weekly newsletter, by Taylor Dart. His focus is gold and silver explorers/miners but he also touches on other sectors, mostly in the US and Canada, and give a good weekly overview of overall US market sentiment. He also writes a lot of overview articles on Seeking Alpha but his newsletter is more in depth.
Seeking Alpha
General overview articles by paid contributors, many of them invested in the companies they're writing about. OK, but I'd never invest based on an SA article.
CEO.ca
Good chat forum for Canadian and US stocks with some knowledgeable contributors (and some dickheads like everywhere else)
Hotcopper
Good chat forum for Australian mining sector.
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How do you let go of bad decisions?
Current price of Ethereum is actually up on my very first bigger purchase, and about 6 times what it was when I bought more in May.
Mainly annoyed that my initial plan was a reasonable one, but then I got caught up in the day to day then bottled it.
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I tend to never regret and never look back. Sell the losers and let the winners run until time to take profits.
But so much depends on your planned timescale. There comes a point when you need to sell to make use of funds.. can't live off fresh air. What was your bad decision, selling ETH when it dropped instead of holding for the bounce? I'd treat that as a valuable lesson where you've learned the behaviour of the currency and your own emotions when things are dropping. I'd recommend following Northstar's chart for Etherium - not just his most recent chart but his long-term stuff - and see how you feel about his predictions.
edit. perhaps if you have less invested you'd have less to worry about during drops, and more chance of being willing to hold for the longer-term rises. Depends on your anxiety levels, everyone's different. I think an ability to detach emotionally from losses or gains is useful.
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Maybe slightly off topic but what platforms are people using? I have so far stuck to the usual biggies (HL, II, IG) just because they are known beasts. Have people tried the zero commission/fee sites such as e-toro, trading 212 etc? Are the spreads acceptable? Any other issues to consider?
I have an account with Trading212 because it seemed to be the best value for option for what I wanted: I have a S&S ISA elsewhere for tracker funds and ETFs but I wanted to use a small amount for some higher risk individual stocks which weren't on offer there.
I wanted to put in relatively small, regular sums but wanted the option to be able to make a few trades per month and wanted to buy some low cap stocks. The fees at a lot of the more established brokers would have killed a chunk of any returns I made. If I manage sufficient growth, the plan is to switch platforms later on to somewhere with fixed fees once those fees are a smaller percentage of the portfolio and once they start to represent a smaller amount than the spread on 212.
The buy/sell spread is typically a shade under 1%. There is also a small additional spread when buying/selling stocks that are listed in a different currency. For very low cap stocks, you may struggle to fill limit or stop-limit orders so market price may be your only choice.
Stay away from Trading212's CFD account, they sound dodgy as. The fee structure at places like Trading212 means nobody should be considering their CFD account anyway. If you know enough to be taking that risk, you are going to be investing sums that are large enough for the more established brokers to work out cheaper.
Etoro's currency conversion is expensive unless you deposit/withdraw in USD, they also charge a small exit fee. They offer fewer of the stocks that I was interested in.
Freetrade's fees and spread would have worked out more expensive for me, they have a much smaller availability of stocks and ETFs, and they are missing a lot of basic features.
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The US has a great number of commission free platforms with lots of free stock offers to entice users - I've made good use of the free stock offers. I currently use RobinHood which I think is great - really good UI. There have been issues (all over the news) but I haven't been privy to them. They were planning on expanding to UK but have since shelved those plans, shame as I was hoping to get lots of referrals.... ::)
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Surely the big question is, will Pete divesting his "knowledge" on UKB make this thread as influential as r/WallStreetBets?
(Really good thread, very interesting to see what people are doing/platforms they are using)
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Surely the big question is, will Pete divesting his "knowledge" on UKB make this thread as influential as r/WallStreetBets?
Was just reading about how they are in the process of bankrupting a hedge fund that was betting against Game Stop, crazy shit https://mobile.twitter.com/williamlegate/status/1354166397874671616
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Can anyone recommend a good guide/literature for getting into investing? Been thinking about it the last few years as we started to have a little more disposable income. Really keen to learn more.
I enjoyed “The Long and the Short of It” by John Kay. You’ll have an opinion on the efficient market hypothesis by the end!
“Fooled by Randomness” by Nicholas Naseem Taleb is good and important (even if NNT himself is insufferable). Would be interested to hear the opinion of a stats and probability expert on his work, but for us punters it seems very useful.
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Was just reading about how they are in the process of bankrupting a hedge fund that was betting against Game Stop, crazy shit https://mobile.twitter.com/williamlegate/status/1354166397874671616
It's been interesting watching this unfold. Although I don't think Melvin is going to go bankrupt as it looks like Citadel and Point 72 are going to bail it out. https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1q8swwwtgr7nt/Buried-in-Reddit-the-Seeds-of-Melvin-Capital-s-Crisis
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Thought this might of interest. Veteran investor Jeremy Grantham’s thoughts on the ever expanding bubble in US markets.
https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/ (https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/)
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An even duller one than VLE in the Shark snoozefolio is Wynnstay (WYN) an agricultural supplier. Classic underpriced Benjamin Graham type share with significant asset backing. Unlike VLE it’s ISAble and currently has a lovely 4% yield. Has traded fine through 2020.
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Was just reading about how they are in the process of bankrupting a hedge fund that was betting against Game Stop, crazy shit https://mobile.twitter.com/williamlegate/status/1354166397874671616
It's been interesting watching this unfold. Although I don't think Melvin is going to go bankrupt as it looks like Citadel and Point 72 are going to bail it out. https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1q8swwwtgr7nt/Buried-in-Reddit-the-Seeds-of-Melvin-Capital-s-Crisis
Front page news on the FT today. Interesting stuff.
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I see Melvin have now closed their short position. Lots of funds must be shitting themselves now.
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Was just reading about how they are in the process of bankrupting a hedge fund that was betting against Game Stop, crazy shit https://mobile.twitter.com/williamlegate/status/1354166397874671616
It's been interesting watching this unfold. Although I don't think Melvin is going to go bankrupt as it looks like Citadel and Point 72 are going to bail it out. https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1q8swwwtgr7nt/Buried-in-Reddit-the-Seeds-of-Melvin-Capital-s-Crisis
Front page news on the FT today. Interesting stuff.
Now it's front page news it'll be interesting to see if the SEC does anything about it, if they even can.
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Maybe slightly off topic but what platforms are people using? I have so far stuck to the usual biggies (HL, II, IG) just because they are known beasts. Have people tried the zero commission/fee sites such as e-toro, trading 212 etc? Are the spreads acceptable? Any other issues to consider?
Here's a useful comparison of the main trading platforms. I use II, they're pricier at the low end but works well for what I want. It allows me to hold small-cap and micro-cap AIM, US, Australian and Canadian companies in my S+S ISA. Some of the others don't.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/zO3wM_09u19s3NUB57WKRiWF1jo6O7SdMlNQWaLP7MDUd583S_w9G3p7jiRABPXbVhIpXKjdGrG-aEH-RzJFfwwuN1pdwFNPWrTuxsbHXxUZQ90hQPUvWT0mKg93w61mzdjGQB07W1dvwVguxKZvQp-wVxPYms4Rl77HMAUuWuTVVGC7ZDgo36yiYbdJo526mjazUT-pnNNE0EwhTjcM6ooFZ2CWDRtnDiKPZ71A0r74kHg3is72ZvkU_1gwDa1AHkIFAmO3e-wHMvjpix__MGUxmEZhfmsxcNvB9wEuiA9B3VC3nBhQ3vdvyvlKepvagF41pEv_Hfc0YHSXjSp4FVVWGvuS7gOGa1QrQ06UNHF1oToAYR266LB8K5PMig2b4_nHMrZL24WRBvBISO6TSGqCKjsy3hKzxb5Ed-86wK_t_NuZC1pIWBJHAdnmhBA74Xgpv-sm0kwbNLFhdr3Mf6AlS3uRhNDIzi4kLfhZaoKvKFuBG0RpybvFhzg2L6l2bzQ_DKar-2-7UACfpCqv0qw9EiM1K-N2uWqrO7w8ESJZwz0u74Bulebm1Xr6DeDUSd79SO1x_UOlpMd-X9Sr5jQGj5-xDyiBDvvyontmSz4ePBGtNFOoW0CfRYO_Iw3qdCpfraiQmMpm1DNOFjX2xWEm_NsLiBehe8Qzx7qqNyDkaY7ZMe4QlmaPFjeI=w327-h398-no?authuser=0)
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Thanks Pete (I can't seem to view that image for some reason though - Edit: working now!).
Also, apparently the whole GameStop saga has caused a load of trading platforms like RobinHood, Trading212 etc. to crash in the past hour or so when the American markets opened.
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Hopefully that works..
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Hugely volatile. It was up over 100% on opening after going up 90+% yesterday. I spent a few minutes watching the live prices: massive swings in price over the space of seconds. Impossible to trade on most platforms I imagine.
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Getting live prices for it right now on II.. the price is changing +/- multiple cents with literally every 1-second click of refresh, never seen anything like it.
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you'll almost always end up with a different price to the one you expected to get when you hit the button too just because the distance between here and the exchange is further than it is for institutional traders
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Was just reading about how they are in the process of bankrupting a hedge fund that was betting against Game Stop, crazy shit https://mobile.twitter.com/williamlegate/status/1354166397874671616
It's been interesting watching this unfold. Although I don't think Melvin is going to go bankrupt as it looks like Citadel and Point 72 are going to bail it out. https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1q8swwwtgr7nt/Buried-in-Reddit-the-Seeds-of-Melvin-Capital-s-Crisis
Not sure what to make of all this in terms of the morality of it.
However, if this were happening in the UK I'm pretty sure the people involved on reddit would be committing an offence under the Market Abuse Regime, specifically around undertaking manipulating transactions.
In fact MAR 1.6.5 provides guidance around whether a person had legitimate reasons for their behaviour. One of the indications that the behaviour is not is "if the person has another, illegitimate, reason behind the transactions, bid or order to trade". And I reckon "I wanted to bankrupt another market participant" would probably fairly easily pass that test as being illegitimate.
Will be interesting to see the fallout. I've no idea whether the same rules apply in the US.
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Was just reading about how they are in the process of bankrupting a hedge fund that was betting against Game Stop, crazy shit https://mobile.twitter.com/williamlegate/status/1354166397874671616
It's been interesting watching this unfold. Although I don't think Melvin is going to go bankrupt as it looks like Citadel and Point 72 are going to bail it out. https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1q8swwwtgr7nt/Buried-in-Reddit-the-Seeds-of-Melvin-Capital-s-Crisis
Not sure what to make of all this in terms of the morality of it.
However, if this were happening in the UK I'm pretty sure the people involved on reddit would be committing an offence under the Market Abuse Regime, specifically around undertaking manipulating transactions.
In fact MAR 1.6.5 provides guidance around whether a person had legitimate reasons for their behaviour. One of the indications that the behaviour is not is "if the person has another, illegitimate, reason behind the transactions, bid or order to trade". And I reckon "I wanted to bankrupt another market participant" would probably fairly easily pass that test as being illegitimate.
Will be interesting to see the fallout. I've no idea whether the same rules apply in the US.
The morality? :lol:
Fair play I say - especially if openly discussing it on a forum. It's like getting Rage Against the Machine to Christmas number one all over again.
This is probably no where near as immoral as what hedge funds do.
This entire post is based on my watching Wolf of Wall Street and The Big Short. I have not read MAR :rtfm: :P
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Haha don't worry I'm not worrying about the poor little hedge fund managers :lol:
It's more the wider argument they seem to be trying to make; that it's okay to manipulate the stock market if you believe your reasons are noble. And basically, it's not okay. We have rules to prevent market manipulation for a reason, one of those being there will always be people who've lost out unfairly, and it won't just be the hedge fund. I'd be willing to bet there will be a large number of people who joined the pile in too late and are now sitting on massive losses given the way the price has plummeted so far today.
If the hedge fund did go bust, chances are in order to take out it's short position it'll have borrowed stock from institutions, including pension funds. With the hedge fund bust, those funds would then lose out in turn, meaning this could have ended with a loss to who knows how many people's pensions.
On the flip side I'm not saying what the hedge funds do is right (or wrong actually). Just there are lots of issues around it and it's not as simple as laughing at a hedge fund manager losing their shirt.
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Surely shorting more stock than is available is illegal?
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Why would it be illegal?
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i dont think regulators worry about it, it wouldnt be practical to short in such high quantities, i.e. all that is available
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Surely shorting more stock than is available is illegal?
I think naked short selling is broadly illegal but not under all circumstances. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naked_short_selling
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Is it not possible to have >100% short interest without naked shorting?
E.g. A owns 1 stock. B borrows the stock from A and sells in the market to C (normal short). C now owns 1 stock. D borrows the stock from C and sells in the market to E. AEC are all long and B and D are short, giving 200% short interest, but B and D both borrowed stock before selling so not a naked short. A touch confusing so not sure if I'm right
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Haha don't worry I'm not worrying about the poor little hedge fund managers :lol:
It's more the wider argument they seem to be trying to make; that it's okay to manipulate the stock market if you believe your reasons are noble. And basically, it's not okay. We have rules to prevent market manipulation for a reason, one of those being there will always be people who've lost out unfairly, and it won't just be the hedge fund. I'd be willing to bet there will be a large number of people who joined the pile in too late and are now sitting on massive losses given the way the price has plummeted so far today.
If the hedge fund did go bust, chances are in order to take out it's short position it'll have borrowed stock from institutions, including pension funds. With the hedge fund bust, those funds would then lose out in turn, meaning this could have ended with a loss to who knows how many people's pensions.
On the flip side I'm not saying what the hedge funds do is right (or wrong actually). Just there are lots of issues around it and it's not as simple as laughing at a hedge fund manager losing their shirt.
They're not all cunts. One particular chap who has just entered my radar gave away £177m in 2018, bought / donated 100 SAMBA II covid testing machines last year, donates to Extinction Rebellion, drives a Prius and goes to work on the tube with his sandwiches in a lunchbox.
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Is it not possible to have >100% short interest without naked shorting?
E.g. A owns 1 stock. B borrows the stock from A and sells in the market to C (normal short). C now owns 1 stock. D borrows the stock from C and sells in the market to E. AEC are all long and B and D are short, giving 200% short interest, but B and D both borrowed stock before selling so not a naked short. A touch confusing so not sure if I'm right
Yea I’ve seen this before where share ownership has exceeded 100% - which can be because of shorting. You can construct naked shorts with puts but my understanding was that this wasn’t illegal across the board. It’s often restricted at certain times.
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Haha don't worry I'm not worrying about the poor little hedge fund managers :lol:
It's more the wider argument they seem to be trying to make; that it's okay to manipulate the stock market if you believe your reasons are noble. And basically, it's not okay. We have rules to prevent market manipulation for a reason, one of those being there will always be people who've lost out unfairly, and it won't just be the hedge fund. I'd be willing to bet there will be a large number of people who joined the pile in too late and are now sitting on massive losses given the way the price has plummeted so far today.
If the hedge fund did go bust, chances are in order to take out it's short position it'll have borrowed stock from institutions, including pension funds. With the hedge fund bust, those funds would then lose out in turn, meaning this could have ended with a loss to who knows how many people's pensions.
On the flip side I'm not saying what the hedge funds do is right (or wrong actually). Just there are lots of issues around it and it's not as simple as laughing at a hedge fund manager losing their shirt.
They're not all cunts. One particular chap who has just entered my radar gave away £177m in 2018, bought / donated 100 SAMBA II covid testing machines last year, donates to Extinction Rebellion, drives a Prius and goes to work on the tube with his sandwiches in a lunchbox.
But what about the stuff that he does that he doesn't want you to know about? ;)
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And I reckon "I wanted to bankrupt another market participant" would probably fairly easily pass that test as being illegitimate.
I think the main driver is to make some rocket money.
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But what about the stuff that he does that he doesn't want you to know about? ;)
Ab Ripper X, copious tick marks, at least three QDs pre-clipped.
(I think the Tube / sandwich knowledge is not well-known...)
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And I reckon "I wanted to bankrupt another market participant" would probably fairly easily pass that test as being illegitimate.
I think the main driver is to make some rocket money.
All the SEC needs to do is search WSB for the rocket emoji and they're sorted #tothemoooon
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Is it not possible to have >100% short interest without naked shorting?
E.g. A owns 1 stock. B borrows the stock from A and sells in the market to C (normal short). C now owns 1 stock. D borrows the stock from C and sells in the market to E. AEC are all long and B and D are short, giving 200% short interest, but B and D both borrowed stock before selling so not a naked short. A touch confusing so not sure if I'm right
Yes, you're right. I think it's possible for short interest to legally exceed 100% with re-borrowing like this. I had read somewhere that Melvin had naked shorts in GME (which I thought was what was being referred to) but not sure how accurate this is.
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And I reckon "I wanted to bankrupt another market participant" would probably fairly easily pass that test as being illegitimate.
I think the main driver is to make some rocket money.
Well quite. Thinking about it some more, I really can't see how the reddit folks are any better than the hedge fund managers they claim to despise.
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All this just continues to demonstrate that stock markets have very little to do with the purpose for which they were originally developed.
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And I reckon "I wanted to bankrupt another market participant" would probably fairly easily pass that test as being illegitimate.
I think the main driver is to make some rocket money.
Well quite. Thinking about it some more, I really can't see how the reddit folks are any better than the hedge fund managers they claim to despise.
No worse and no better. It's all a game and most of the time pi's are underdogs by their own short-sighted psychology. Fuck the hedge fund shorters - they knew the risk and they took the risk. This time it's funny to watch something a little different playing out, like watching a league 2 side topple the Premier league leaders in the cup.
Price of GME hasn't dropped yet.. if you put something in at lunchtime yesterday you'd be 130% up by now. Of course it will come crashing down and ruin some unfortunates.
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As Pete said it’s a game....stocks and shares is educated gambling.
What is going on now is just a severe momentum trade....momentum trading/swing trading been here since the 30’s
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Cornish Metals (CUSN.V) turning into a good story to follow. Currently listed on the Vancouver exchange, they're floating on AIM in February. Their two mines in Cornwall were mothballed but are up and running again, hosting high grade tin which has become a highly sought-after commodity due to various tech revolutions in progress (including chipboards for bitcoin mining machines amongst other uses).
Lithium carbonate another by-product from the Cornish mines, chatter of this to be used in UK's growing EV battery production. Good for the Cornish economy. Tin at a 5-year high.
Price up 50% in the last week or so.
I'm not invested but may look into this and Alphamin (AFM.V)
This guy's a good follow for the details: https://twitter.com/TraderPamplona
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What is going on now is just a severe momentum trade....momentum trading/swing trading been here since the 30’s
I don't think that's true at all, it's nothing more than a pump and dump scheme with an undercurrent of faux nobility.
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The wallstreetbets subreddit has been set to private. Not sure what that means other than non members cannot now access it. Perhaps members too? Perhaps it's locked or taken down? Not really familiar with how Reddit works.
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The wallstreetbets subreddit has been set to private. Not sure what that means other than non members cannot now access it. Perhaps members too? Perhaps it's locked or taken down? Not really familiar with how Reddit works.
I'm a follower and I couldn't access it last night. It's back up now though. They've gone from 2M followers to 4M in a week (3M to 4M in the last 24 hours) so I imagine there was a tsunami of posts coming in and a significant amount of spam to deal with too.
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The WSB driven stocks have been temporarily removed from Robinhood (largest free commission trading platform in US) including GME, AMC, BB, BBY, NOK...
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Do you work in stonks Coops?
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The WSB driven stocks have been temporarily removed from Robinhood (largest free commission trading platform in US) including GME, AMC, BB, BBY, NOK...
The big bucks must be cutting deals with Robinhood :devil-smiley:
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The WSB driven stocks have been temporarily removed from Robinhood (largest free commission trading platform in US) including GME, AMC, BB, BBY, NOK...
The big bucks must be cutting deals with Robinhood :devil-smiley:
Same has happened on other platforms now, WeBull, TD Ameritrade, Merril Lynch...
Do you work in stonks Coops?
Nope, occasionally dabble though
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Now they're all crashing - I think it's the fact that you can only sell, not buy those stocks on these platforms so retail investors are getting scared. Wonder what's going on behind the scenes between HF and platforms... :unsure:
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Maddest period in the markets ever? At least since the last mad period. Like the charge of the lemming brigade for many private investors. None of this was sustainable, just a game of who's left holding the bag of crap.
Silver spiked today on fear it's next.
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Equivalent of a Stockmarket Ponzi Scheme
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Well that's essentially what a lot of share trading is, a pyramid scheme. Large parts of the financial system the same - you saw it in action in 2008 when suddenly the music stopped and a critical mass of people realised the true (lack of.. ) value of the assets they were holding. Triggering massive fear and selling. Same happening here but just in a very short timescale and involving mass mobilisation of private investors, rather than massive institutions.. It's just gambling by another name. When intelligent professionals do it it's mostly accepted. When dumb private individuals do it it's mostly frowned upon. Thing is the intelligent professionals and their employers have a much better safety net - brains, connections, bail-outs, capital. The private individuals mostly don't.
Doesn't mean the market doesn't offer investments with fundamental value and potential for sustainable growth. It does and always will. Just those investments get forgotten in the feeding frenzy of greed, and then fear of the loss, at times like this.
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Maddest period in the markets ever?
Nope. Not yet anyway.
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I often think these frenzied periods of market volatility, usually revolving around some sort of event are a bit dull. They serve really only as anecdotes and don't tell us much about how markets actually work the rest of the time. People like to shit on efficient markets, but it probably provides a pretty decent approximation to reality
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:popcorn: has been great following this today. Trading halted several times, and whilst the value is dropping it appears to be from traders trying to short to bring the value down and people having limited options to buy due to trading platforms stopping trades. Will be interesting in the long term to see what the regulators do as from an outsider's viewpoint it would appear to be blatant market manipulation.
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Onto things that will more likely affect us all...this big bubble that's being mooted: https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/
With cash tied up in ETFs (stocks and shares isa), is best to just accept it and ride it out, or reduce tied capital and re-invest later. Feels a bit too much like "trying to predict the market". Realistically, I'm up about 12.5% (which is pretty good considering half of it was only put in in November, the rest in July) at present, but that'll be more than wiped out by any crash...
Could always take it out and pay down some mortgage, hang on to some for reinvesting at the dip? Happy to ride out as it's intended to be long term, just wondering the best plan more generally when a bubble is being called.
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Will be interesting in the long term to see what the regulators do as from an outsider's viewpoint it would appear to be blatant market manipulation.
Maybe, but I'd be surprised if we see any successful prosecutions. Regulatory changes might be a different story.
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Funny snippet from today's Matt Levine newsletter - a confluence of petejh's interest in metals and mining, and the recent GameStop nonsense bubble:
A tiny West Australian mining company has been caught up in the investing craze surrounding US company GameStop thanks to its ASX code matching that of the American video game retailer.
GME Resources, which is listed on the local bourse with a market capitalisation of just $40 million, is a mining company focused on nickel and cobalt extraction. On Thursday, its shares soared more than 50 per cent to 12 cents, their highest level since 2018, with volumes of nearly $7 million.
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It appears now that robinhood is closing out people's GME accounts without permission citing market volatility... This is even worse than just not allowing traders to buy.
In other stock news new concept energy shares are up over 600% today...
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Onto things that will more likely affect us all...this big bubble that's being mooted: https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/
With cash tied up in ETFs (stocks and shares isa), is best to just accept it and ride it out, or reduce tied capital and re-invest later. Feels a bit too much like "trying to predict the market". Realistically, I'm up about 12.5% (which is pretty good considering half of it was only put in in November, the rest in July) at present, but that'll be more than wiped out by any crash...
Could always take it out and pay down some mortgage, hang on to some for reinvesting at the dip? Happy to ride out as it's intended to be long term, just wondering the best plan more generally when a bubble is being called.
Depends on what your time horizon is. I've just taken out a chunk I had invested for home down-payment (which was already risky given time horizon < 1yr) but I'm happy with the returns I've had on that and saw the bull run as too good to pass up
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Worth following for reliable opinions on current finance issues
https://twitter.com/johnhcochrane?s=21
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Can anyone recommend a good guide/literature for getting into investing? Been thinking about it the last few years as we started to have a little more disposable income. Really keen to learn more.
I enjoyed “The Long and the Short of It” by John Kay. You’ll have an opinion on the efficient market hypothesis by the end!
“Fooled by Randomness” by Nicholas Naseem Taleb is good and important (even if NNT himself is insufferable). Would be interested to hear the opinion of a stats and probability expert on his work, but for us punters it seems very useful.
He's pretty outspoken on twitter, often calling out prominent academics on all sorts of stuff - he commented on a paper that me and a friend wrote and luckily was quite kind about it. I think his work is probably a lot more realistic than other "forecasters"
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What was the paper?
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This is the link he posted to it, they’re like 30 quid without an affiliation.
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1299072734853582853?s=21
But it was basically another opportunity for him to rip tetlock and Nate silver
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Will be interesting in the long term to see what the regulators do as from an outsider's viewpoint it would appear to be blatant market manipulation.
Maybe, but I'd be surprised if we see any successful prosecutions. Regulatory changes might be a different story.
Yeah 100%. Whole thing feels like a total failure of regulation to me.
It appears now that robinhood is closing out people's GME accounts without permission citing market volatility... This is even worse than just not allowing traders to buy.
In other stock news new concept energy shares are up over 600% today...
Shit gets deeper. Apparently Robinhood get about half their revenue from selling consumer data to Citadel, who bailed out Melvin Capital, the original primary target of the short squeeze!
A lesson if it were needed that if the product is free, you are the product, and may well be taking on risks you can't even begin to predict.
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This is the link he posted to it, they’re like 30 quid without an affiliation.
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1299072734853582853?s=21
But it was basically another opportunity for him to rip tetlock and Nate silver
Thanks! Never knew there was a link between finance theory and election prediction, cool.
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The World Wide Robin Hood Society's Twitter account has just got very popular.
https://twitter.com/robinhood/status/1354786505873625091?s=20
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Interesting thread on the whole Gamestop thing:
https://twitter.com/endtwist/status/1354547622133051393?s=21
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Nice, pretty good detail on all the trades too
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Nice, pretty good detail on all the trades too
For a punter like me, I found it very informative. These two posts were quite enlightening too:
So, the short interest was over 100% of total shares. In fact, it was 140%. Which makes no sense—how can you sell more shares than there are shares?
Keep in mind, not all shares are actively traded. In fact, over 75% of $GME is locked up in passive funds and GME board & C-suite.
So really, short interest was like 300-500% of *float* (float is how many shares are actively traded, basically).
Which is insane. Basically, the shorts (which are hedge funds like Melvin) were expecting $GME to go bankrupt and they'd never have to cover (return their shares).
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Yea when people say short its not always clear how they've done it. The thread seems to suggest people were taking long interest with call options, and short interest can be generated with put options - but equally people can generate short interest the traditional way (borrowing shares from a broker for a fee, selling them at the spot price with a view to buying them back a week later (or whatever) to return them to a broker. This makes a profit only if the price actually falls). I imagine this has implications for the figures that are presented here.
I think the trades enter dodgy territory when people have no intention of buying them back to return to the broker
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https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l78uct/gme_yolo_update_jan_28_2021/
Just wow. The guy that started the whole gme thing deepfuckinvalue is still holding even after $14million loss yesterday. Amazing.
Will be interesting to see what happens today as the stock is up over 100% in after hours trading.
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Away from the circus, here's a wonderful article on the mining requirements behind Tesla's plans for increased production of EVs. Worth reading twice and digesting the mid-long term implications for mining. Tesla is one company among many in a fast growing market.
(nod in there to the heavy rare earths also.. maybe one day Ucore will get its Bokan Mountain deposit into production..).
https://www.mining.com/all-the-mines-tesla-needs-to-build-20-million-cars-a-year/
Also good to know what goes on in the world to make your new EV, some of it isn't pretty. At least mining ESG is beginning to become more of a thing. The EV revolution will hopefully strengthen mining standards.
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Be interested to know if anyone still has any good recovery stock ideas at this late stage.
Not very racy but VLE (Volvere) is a cautious turnaround operation with a great track record of buying distressed companies cheaply turning them around and selling them for multiples of the purchase price. They have recently raised a lot of money through a placing so have a sizeable war chest to take advantage of the current market conditions. There is a lot of downside protection as their market cap is roughly equivalent to their ‘true’ NAV. There is a great thread on ADVFN if you want to look into it further. Because of some recent stupid rules it’s classed as a complex investment (it isn’t) so you can’t buy it in an ISA. I hold mine in a SIPP. It’s by far my largest holding.
Just remembered its just some ISA platforms (notably in my case IWEB) that dont let you buy VLE whereas others such as AJBell/Youinvest do.
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...
https://www.mining.com/all-the-mines-tesla-needs-to-build-20-million-cars-a-year/
Also good to know what goes on in the world to make your new EV, some of it isn't pretty. At least mining ESG is beginning to become more of a thing. The EV revolution will hopefully strengthen mining standards.
Or if you’re not interested in investing in extractive processes, you could instead look at companies starting battery recycling facilities https://www.wired.co.uk/article/electric-car-battery-recycling
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:thumbsup:
..hence the huge interest in solid state batteries, which aren't flammable and will have a massively longer life.
Cough.. Ilika (https://www.ilika.com/) :whistle:
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Also good to know what goes on in the world to make your new EV, some of it isn't pretty.
Having been involved in the design of a pilot plant to produce a low cobalt cathode material for EV batteries, the fabrication process is pretty grim. I was also somewhat surprised I found out the commercial plant was getting its power from a coal fired power station.
Anyone who thinks EVs are getting us out of this mess in on cloud cuckoo land...
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Agreed, although it's better than the alternative..
And the UK at least is moving towards majority sustainable power generation, so there can be a virtuous circle in some countries. Even China is making massive progress towards sustainable power generation. The short term may look messy but longer term direction of travel looks positive.
That said I do wish some of the more preachy in the population would honestly acknowledge the whole picture of what goes into manufacturing their green status badges, as the reality would likely accelerate making them even greener!
Was the cathode Nickel Sulfide by any chance?
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Shit gets deeper. Apparently Robinhood get about half their revenue from selling consumer data to Citadel, who bailed out Melvin Capital, the original primary target of the short squeeze!
I think it's unlikely the reason why Robinhood restricted trading was due to pressure from the hedge funds who pay for their data. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/29/robinhood-to-restore-gamestop-trading-as-it-wins-1bn-backing
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Shit gets deeper. Apparently Robinhood get about half their revenue from selling consumer data to Citadel, who bailed out Melvin Capital, the original primary target of the short squeeze!
I think it's unlikely the reason why Robinhood restricted trading was due to pressure from the hedge funds who pay for their data. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/29/robinhood-to-restore-gamestop-trading-as-it-wins-1bn-backing
Oh I agree. It doesn't look good though!
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Was the cathode Nickel Sulfide by any chance?
Don’t think anyone’s looking at nickel sulphide as an ev cathode are they? More likely NMC 622 or higher or NCA I would assume.
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I was talking about the feedstock, in the context of an investment thread, rather than the specific Nickel alloy end product. And I'm mixing my suphides and sulfates! Nickel Sulfate: https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/06/20200602-roskill.html
There are some good opportunities (imo) among certain Nickel miners with high purity deposits. I hold shares in Centaurus Metals for e.g.
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This is all very interesting. I'm the anti-Pete, very cautious about money, so feel free to ignore me. However, my gut feeling says, when a small bouldering forum starts discussing stock-market tips it may be time to think carefully about whether you should be in the stock-market.
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This is all very interesting. I'm the anti-Pete, very cautious about money, so feel free to ignore me. However, my gut feeling says, when a small bouldering forum starts discussing stock-market tips it may be time to think carefully about whether you should be in the stock-market.
Is this the climbing equivalent of the shoe shine boy story?
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I would agree that the market appears to be heading for a large crash. It works both ways though in that if you have disposable cash and jump on a bullish stock you could make big money very quickly. Several stocks last week and you could have made 500% day trading even with only £100 starting that is life-changing for lots of people.
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Missed a zero off in there...
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This is all very interesting. I'm the anti-Pete, very cautious about money, so feel free to ignore me. However, my gut feeling says, when a small bouldering forum starts discussing stock-market tips it may be time to think carefully about whether you should be in the stock-market.
I mostly agree with that sentiment Duncan. However I've been trading stocks for over 20 years and many other posters on this thread are equally scarred experienced. You're only seeing this thread take some prominence on ukb mostly because I mentioned (perhaps a bit too candidly), in my entry in the 'best of 2020' thread, that I'd done particularly well on an investment. Some interest in an investing thread was displayed, so we started this thread.
I suggest that anyone who isn't interested in playing with money that they can easily afford to lose just ignores this thread. Investing is a hobby, like any other, and one which provides interest for those who like to do research and take a little risk. I mostly ignore the threads I'm not interested in.
As far as a market crash, like weather fronts there's always one on the way. It's just difficult to know exactly how close and how bad. But yes when your barber (or random climbing partner) gives you a stock tip, you should probably sell that stock.
I hope some insights from this thread will prove interesting and perhaps useful. Mine are mostly in high risk speculative markets. That I think is what most people are interested in losing ahem investing their disposable income in. As said at the beginning the risks should be known. Bottom line is I don't think anyone here needs a babysitter.
Quote from first page again:
Nothing posted on this thread constitutes investment advice!
Don't believe anything you read here, except this bit ;)
Do always do your own research.
And never forget the investment world is full of people whose job is the skilled pumping or shorting of stocks by playing on your fear, greed and FOMO. They don't care if you lose all of your investment.
With that can we move past the concerned parents stage and continue sharing interesting investment ideas.
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This is all very interesting. I'm the anti-Pete, very cautious about money, so feel free to ignore me. However, my gut feeling says, when a small bouldering forum starts discussing stock-market tips it may be time to think carefully about whether you should be in the stock-market.
Or perhaps "whether you should be actively picking individual stocks in the stock-market".
https://www.wealthify.com/blog/time-in-the-market-versus-timing-the-market
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Expanding on the forthcoming market crash (guaranteed sometime in the next 1 day to 15 years).
There's a lot of genuine fear out there at the moment among investors, that the GME short squeeze event risks being the trigger that leads to the next crash. Some institutions have lost billions covering short positions, now they're liquidating other, good quality, assets to pay for those loses. There's a fear that if this behaviour spreads - i.e. private investors coordinating to attack large institutional short positions - then it could cause a massive liquidation by institutions covering their positions because they're fearful of becoming the next Melvin / Citron. If that happens the many investors in value companies will be the losers.
Looked at another way it's a massive opportunity for whoever's brave enough to take advantage. But it's very weird times when there are currently usually rational investors taking money out of safer value stocks to knowingly buy into pump n dump shitcos being inflated by social-media organised mass-buying. It's almost a no-brainer risk/reward situation for some who time it cautiously. But it's causing volatility all over the market. One example - Eurasia Mining briefly lost 45% in value this week when a large holder sold all their shares, rumoured to be because they needed to cover a short position in another company under attack by Reddit'ers.
Physical Silver seemingly the next short squeeze. If that succeeds the market fallout could be massive from large institutions selling off to cover. Silver already up and poised to breakout. Loads of shitty silver miners/explorers currently bubbling upwards in price as a side effect.. easy money to be made for some along with big losses for many.
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This is all very interesting. I'm the anti-Pete, very cautious about money, so feel free to ignore me. However, my gut feeling says, when a small bouldering forum starts discussing stock-market tips it may be time to think carefully about whether you should be in the stock-market.
My gut feeling is that once a small bouldering forum starts discussing stock-market tips it may be time to ask yourself, in the words of David Bryne "Well... how did I get here?"
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it turns out that they transformed one fuck-all into a few fuck-alls - what was the point?
In fairness, although I know nothing about investing this is the exact pattern my gambling on sport takes. I rarely if ever have more than a tenner on anything and its usually nearer 2 quid. Its peanuts, but it still satisfies me when I get it right; I imagine that is what attracts people to small scale trading as well?
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I think that's true - I think the kind of stuff that I find concerning is when people think they're buying stocks, when they're actually betting on the price movement. Lots of platforms just sell you the opportunity to place expectations, usually referred to as contracts for difference or something like that. You don't physically own anything, no voting rights, no capital value.
Having spent my adult life studying/teaching finance the only investment I have is a diversified stocks and shares ISA.
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...
https://www.mining.com/all-the-mines-tesla-needs-to-build-20-million-cars-a-year/
Also good to know what goes on in the world to make your new EV, some of it isn't pretty. At least mining ESG is beginning to become more of a thing. The EV revolution will hopefully strengthen mining standards.
Or if you’re not interested in investing in extractive processes, you could instead look at companies starting battery recycling facilities https://www.wired.co.uk/article/electric-car-battery-recycling
Currently works ok-ish for the nickel and cobalt chemicals - doesn’t really work for the lithium. Plus given the demand growth forecast over the next 10-15 years, combined with the longevity of the batteries (approx 10-15 yrs), recycling will be a rounding error in the supply chain for the coming generation of electric vehicles and stationary storage projects.
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Currently works ok-ish for the nickel and cobalt chemicals - doesn’t really work for the lithium. Plus given the demand growth forecast over the next 10-15 years, combined with the longevity of the batteries (approx 10-15 yrs), recycling will be a rounding error in the supply chain for the coming generation of electric vehicles and stationary storage projects.
Sounds like a good time to put in a long term investment then 😄
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I think that's true - I think the kind of stuff that I find concerning is when people think they're buying stocks, when they're actually betting on the price movement. Lots of platforms just sell you the opportunity to place expectations, usually referred to as contracts for difference or something like that. You don't physically own anything, no voting rights, no capital value.
Having spent my adult life studying/teaching finance the only investment I have is a diversified stocks and shares ISA.
Indeed. Betting on the wiggle.
I have a couple of hundred quid (well it stated at that and is now about 600) that I bet on crypto. It is nothing more than watching the wiggles every couple of days and buying when it’s lower and selling when it’s higher. I have no idea whatsoever what is controlling the price. Got some ripple at the moment. No idea how that works 😁 but it rises and falls fairly regularly.
I quite like that. Just playing the noise.
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It’s so interesting that this (great) thread emerged just a few days before the Reddit vs. Hedge battle.
Hats off to you Pete for the insight and courage to pull off a life changing investment.
Our gas engineer popped round to service the boiler on Wednesday. He’s been a three or four year crypto investor. Grew up on a council estate nearby, trained as a gas fitter. He’s jacking it in and moving to Senegal when he can, having made a fortune in Bitcoin, selling his house and motorbike to invest.
I winced when he said he hadn’t cashed any of it out. Not even skimmed off anything, so it’s all sat there in the blockchain.
Blimey.
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As per Duncan's sentiment, I agree with you that a crash is on the way and probably overdue. I would hope that anyone who takes this stuff seriously realises the risks. This guy paints the picture pretty clearly for me: https://twitter.com/alexharfouche1/status/1334223427528519680/photo/1
It took me a looong time investing to learn how to get better at researching properly, detaching my emotion from the investment, not following the herd, and working out how to understand fair value. I'm still learning obvs. I *still* find it hard to buy when prices are falling and to sell when prices are rising. It's such an strong natural instinct to override. The best piece of pithy advice I read is 'buying in should never feel good, selling should always feel like you're losing out on further gains'.
Mburke, you sound a little like my girlfriend, she did a masters in business analysis and then worked for 6 months for an investment company (before realising it wasn't what she wanted to do).. But she never got into buying shares for herself. When I pointed out my trading platform was entirely online and low cost she was actually surprised I never talked to a broker and didn't pay large commission fees! : )
I'd imagine most people here understand the difference between buying shares and playing with CFDs, futures, shorting etc. Most private investors don't bother getting into what you're talking about - buying shares is incredibly easy, there's no need to mess around with high risk contracts for difference and I don't think that's what posters here are interested in.
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Yea I think I’m fairly detached on what people’s understanding is and what they trade with. The OECD did a survey on financial literacy which showed that only about half of people even understood interest rates. This is true in wealthy nations and across social groups.
I think it’s all a lot of work to do properly, the sort of analysis you’re talking about and fair play for doing it all.
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Off topic, but I'm mildly drunk, alone during a pandemic, and like an anecdote.
I'm a dull person and even duller and safer when it comes to money. Most of my spare cash is currently in low interest accounts that are probably losing value in real terms. But in around 2005, a friend was an early enthusiast for online share trading. He realised that his favourite UK platform used a £/$ exchange rate from the previous night for shares purchased in dollars. So, he devised an investment strategy whereby if the exchange rate had moved favourably compared to the value used by the share platform, we would trade in shares of US companies with very steady share prices - likely to stay static or maybe increase slightly (Microsoft and various huge oil and pharma companies). It was basically a form of currency arbitrage but via share trading. Keeping an eye on the currency and share values - and assessing if there would be any profit from a trade after commission - was a lot of work but we had a friend who was a shut-in who had nothing better to do. Eventually the share trading platform caught on and used more up-to-date exchange rates - but we had around a year of very good profit, which was just as well as had I invested most of my year's PhD grant.
Aside from the odd sports bet, this is the only instance where I've felt like I've beaten "the man". But I can see how it would be addictive. My brother and dad spend hours every evening studying horse-racing form, looking for edges. For them, a small profit earned via their own intelligence, beating the odds setters of William Hill etc., is worth far more than the same amount earned through the day job. Me, I take the safe option - work a bit of overtime instead - guaranteed earnings for my hours. I feel I'm an unimaginative mug but have more free time to read online beta about boulder problems in Ilkley!
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I think it’s all a lot of work to do properly, the sort of analysis you’re talking about and fair play for doing it all.
Absolutely, I tried to do my own investing briefly with some petty cash a few years ago, soon realised I didn't have the time or patience to carry out research effectively.
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This is why Bitcoin is so popular. It only takes an hour max of reading to understand the context, likely future and strong immunity from competition. (I would say this applies to Crypto overall but not so much to other cryptos than BC and to a lesser extent Eth. Others require lots of research like any investment.)
Then of course it's a question of whether you can profit from the volatility of have the balls to hodl ftw like FD's gas fitter.
Be interesting to see how BC fares in the coming big crash. It wasn't really around for the last one. Will it track closer to gold or stock?
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Good info Habich I'll check out Yardeni. I use morningstar.
I've also recently started using Ortex (https://public.ortex.com/#analysis) financial analysis as a resource - it's pricey if you pay.. £50 per month..
but I'm a member of a private telegram group and there are a few hundred people, we just each get a free on-month trial... and share the resource : ) It's very good!
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/PLRsZ1pQIEcTgc383GCouVpRiz7HgGn0thH07YqtPyeGbL_rUByWGE7w5S4BB36OFPXISr84UwuEarv_sxVx1GYWou6UQbIaUIYK9hmi9d2JWHFJW53SqV-FU1h7zFfBW-RLmE3LkvDPcQi8PYGaqztz0XFYxettNED4mJBDG7qEXp1_Ek59bkRZnRNHLkCA1xzry2oiD37KBHA3AALfictuargERjbmQr4x0cTrDPGUH_uyDjKciQKzpHEWqFkU_mF3oQOGrO6-Ao0QnTflXyHi4hpM-e0B6zwFTU1RcRiGu3Jhjcp6DmuTyBCsFqPIKF9ITzHDo8Rn0wgITt_Gwzb_re2nx38-dIHxjLDtWE7GuweG2F305xxWGv_f6hYg3LLrPX5vPhsHEmW-p2QYkhnHFBNfywOX1ckiofExILJxaoeJkM7PwEJE9cpTeiJqd_qfJm473_M7fnXm5iOsfCBU15g8AuJql-iIzHOLcX_-Hquwp8G_WoSagvDnbtDtpsQgwbzBBI8Is-D6gyRliTqCSoSERscy4Q80ZXKssHogsqq-_0LM2kz8k5YCscPilZPjzwtLYJ8J0Sdcmp0H3xrI9OnNK2kGOoyocxsMUFKTcPqmZiMIhe51G0Dlf_sTsYPfBbs0T2h7OQuKV703BxRz349zPKr0yU7lAyj_sy7F03BKHjHzTdPB8Tb8=w1280-h629-no?authuser=0)
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/oZscjg8Q2wk-Bpa3SDVnbJr2Iwhrx8erC66B8FsJrjiQopIuEiiNNmY742-ut2n2Ey31jcu-uIHG6HLgkqQHLh9gxjiiIYBnI8GMxDb0ti1nz9_Y0ownXQEfNCZkeqO-vrtIVDv6kKXGcape7hZEp2A6kQvw80-GX39f2Pnmt_SFtoFooNnszhayOIxHw8oUAUQIVmyFD45qLWHX9yFeHyupJioJtDzn_f-rVSRS-0wlJCf-_Xcn6-kWvLI6PsEHGGmQE3JcDg8H2Nx-2DvE-cKqRSTSFM9v8buMts4rg_KmC24X9XSLFIGFqvzt2tNFoPOrQkRj9kivxP_GuCCGNhInO76WO9eCpWlNQFs5YIGyIoU3PkoOZ1Xw65YXm6qfeVAYspJlnzVNpo5MEIMcvfMoqUmVkomXJ2Ho0EvRcRjun86cN4wF8ySI9EbpScf7pupzXRWWPR3uoBA1lTB-urGvNKL1YDl9HdzZlUCjTrNpvAg0HrPJay1svoRfRmNqqM9CrYD8G7SUvbvAdSM08woYo-yKlSeIerjKq8x4qjRCo-1OeoR0BVfUN5Z-z9691dN2xBjvQzvgH2yM7kpKJF73aiCOYGAuWjUo90oymvNbxcghR0WLYuEHsH3WraK9lcCkXm3KquhcXDlu_6oo5bxB3r1xrK0ndC5Zs44mg-O0NVGurgAP39xlxMZ2=w1280-h680-no?authuser=0)
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Here's a question that puzzles me for all you Gordon Gecko's.....
If gold is a hedge against inflation and a crash in equities, why does it crash when the stock market does?
It sold off in Feb/March this year along with equities, sold in 2001, sold off in the 2008 crash too?
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Here's a question that puzzles me for all you Gordon Gecko's.....
If gold is a hedge against inflation and a crash in equities, why does it crash when the stock market does?
It sold off in Feb/March this year along with equities, sold in 2001, sold off in the 2008 crash too?
I guess it's because many people/institutions hold both gold and equities. When equity markets go down quickly they need liquidity to meet margin calls. So they have to sell other assets like gold to get some quick cash.
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Here's a question that puzzles me for all you Gordon Gecko's.....
If gold is a hedge against inflation and a crash in equities, why does it crash when the stock market does?
It sold off in Feb/March this year along with equities, sold in 2001, sold off in the 2008 crash too?
I guess it's because many people/institutions hold both gold and equities. When equity markets go down quickly they need liquidity to meet margin calls. So they have to sell other assets like gold to get some quick cash.
Thx for that, it’s logical.
Thing is though ergo Gold isn’t a great hedge against say the sp500 although it’s touted as one!
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I used the word institutions incorrectly - I really just meant entities other than individual retail investors.
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Imo it's better to invest in gold miners or royalty streaming companies rather than physical gold. Price of gold is leveraged in well-run mining companies as every dollar increase in PoG gives you a leveraged percentage increase in bottom line margin. Mining companies with extraction costs below the industry average do very well indeed. Current industry average extraction costs are around $1,100 while some of the best gold mining companies average below $900.
Physical gold/silver doesn't seem worth investing except for super wealthy to store away a few hundred thousand or million to cover times of extreme market volatility.
Seems the silver short squeeze was very short.. Have been reading around and seems the big boys did well out of it.
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Absolutely nothing to do with this, but a fun fact I heard recently. Do you know how much gold has ever been mined in the history of ever?
21.7m3. Wild.
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Absolutely nothing to do with this, but a fun fact I heard recently. Do you know how much gold has ever been mined in the history of ever?
21.7m3. Wild.
Surely you mean 21.73 m3? 21.7m3 would only be a cube of sides just under 3m in length.
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Absolutely nothing to do with this, but a fun fact I heard recently. Do you know how much gold has ever been mined in the history of ever?
21.7m3. Wild.
Surely you mean 21.73 m3? 21.7m3 would only be a cube of sides just under 3m in length.
The Will Hunt downgrade has reach Gold:
https://www.gold.org/about-gold/gold-supply/gold-mining/how-much-gold#:~:text=The%20best%20estimates%20currently%20available,in%20one%20form%20or%20another.
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FFS! :slap:
As another aside, a friend of my brother's bought 100 GameStop shares at USD380 thinking it was a sure bet. He still hasn't sold as he's trying to decide what to do...
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As another aside, a friend of my brother's bought 100 GameStop shares at USD380 thinking it was a sure bet. He still hasn't sold as he's trying to decide what to do...
They were trading between about $11-$15 in normal market conditions, before the Reddit attention. They're now at $104. Does any more really need saying?!
Seriously, this is why I think US regulators need to come down pretty hard on this, as ultimately the people who lose out are the retail investors the Reddit dickheads think they're championing.
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You paper hands bitch, Bradders.
Imma spell it out for you apes. The hedge funds are bringing out ladder attack after ladder attack. They're fucked. The dip is fake news! Buy the dip!
(This is not financial advice.)
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I'm very proud of my gains in the squeeze. I purchased a grand total of one share of AMC for $6 then sold it for $20 the next morning. I've now retired as a successful swing trader, currently writing a book and a training course - watch. this. space.
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Might close my short on GME soon :-\
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I'm very proud of my gains in the squeeze. I purchased a grand total of one share of AMC for $6 then sold it for $20 the next morning. I've now retired as a successful swing trader, currently writing a book and a training course - watch. this. space.
That must have netted you a whole one and a half beers in Denver (or am I out of date?)
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With Coop’s taste for 10% beers, maybe not even one!
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I'm very proud of my gains in the squeeze. I purchased a grand total of one share of AMC for $6 then sold it for $20 the next morning. I've now retired as a successful swing trader, currently writing a book and a training course - watch. this. space.
That must have netted you a whole one and a half beers in Denver (or am I out of date?)
oh yeah, free beer = living the dream
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Yeah, for sure. I tend to lump the stocks and the physical metal together in my mind. What you say is right but as far as I know it is unusual to make money in any mining stocks when the physical price is falling, even with low cost producers?
[/quote]
Depends what price you buy them at, there's still value to be found! (egg, meet sucker)
Not in a prolonged gold bear market, no. But currently gold companies are forecasting earnings based on $1,350 - $1,450 per oz gold, so lots of potential in the current bullish gold trend for miners to see large increases in their free cash flow when PoG is $400 per ounce higher. Also plenty of margin to absorb lower prices for well run companies with low costs.
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Tin.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-02/tin-faces-historic-squeeze-as-electronics-boom-erodes-stockpiles
Cornish Metals. Listing on AIM this month. (already listed on the TSX).
https://cornishmetals.com/site/assets/files/4930/2020-01-25_cornish_metals_presentation_sm.pdf
GM shortage.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/general-motors-shuts-three-plants-183516230.html
(CM price predicted to drop on Monday due to dilution from the AIM placing)
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Simon Reeve's series 'Cornwall' had a good section on the Cornish tin revival and the South Crofty mine. Note the environmental, ethical and sustainability considerations for the tin required in all electronic devices and EVs. Most tin currently mined comes from places like Myanmar and the DRC. Myanmar supplied the majority of China's tin.
Here from 44 minutes in:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000pb6s/cornwall-with-simon-reeve-series-1-episode-1
Cornish Metals (CUSN) listed on AIM on Tuesday. I'd been buying them on the Canadian exchange (CUSN.V) for the last month along with Alphamin Resources (AFM.V) on the TSX. Interesting arbitrage opportunity currently between the AIM and the TSX price.. price should find a balance soon. Some have been selling their TSX shares to repurchase on AIM for a discount.
CUSN's 'United Downs' mine is the better prospect. Detailed broker note here (free to register): https://www.hannam.partners/insights/research/research-articles/breathing-new-life-into-cornwall-s-mining-industry/
Tin price continues to rise as supply is squeezed.
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Keith Gill aka u/DeepFuckingValue aka Roaring Kitty testifies to the House, in which he declares "I am not a cat" and "I like the stonk".
Worth a watch to see all the little piss takes he puts in there.
https://twitter.com/YahooFinance/status/1362458489172488196?s=19
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A cautionary investment tale
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/feb/20/i-was-told-it-was-as-safe-as-houses-savers-owed-thousands-as-firm-fails
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Right, so, the big crash is coming, right?
I'm seriously considering cashing my my returns from this year, and getting back in after a slump. I can cope with "missing gains".
So, what are the risk of this strategy:
- If it sits as cash too long, it'll be eroded by inflation.[1]
- I get it wrong, there is no crash - see point 1 above - that's just "missed gains", whatever...I've "missed £4k of ETH "GAINZ" this year, pretty much over it.
Any more?
I'm happy enough with "riding out a dip" as I have no need for the cash short term but with all the shit going on in the world, I do feel it could be a long, protracted flatline....
1- would it be worth hedging against inflation? I guess metals are the usual hedges?
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Nothing immediate to add, but I saw this recently which was quite amusing:
https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/time-the-market-game/
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Nothing immediate to add, but I saw this recently which was quite amusing:
https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/time-the-market-game/
Tha's brilliant :-)
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Right, so, the big crash is coming, right?
I'm seriously considering cashing my my returns from this year, and getting back in after a slump. I can cope with "missing gains".
So, what are the risk of this strategy:
- If it sits as cash too long, it'll be eroded by inflation.[1]
- I get it wrong, there is no crash - see point 1 above - that's just "missed gains", whatever...I've "missed £4k of ETH "GAINZ" this year, pretty much over it.
Any more?
I'm happy enough with "riding out a dip" as I have no need for the cash short term but with all the shit going on in the world, I do feel it could be a long, protracted flatline....
1- would it be worth hedging against inflation? I guess metals are the usual hedges?
A correction certainly looks imminent but you could probably find someone saying the same every day for the last 5 years.
Only you know your situation. Personally, I've cashed out large chunks of various holdings over the course of the last month or so. While short-term trading some commodities - tin, nickel and rare earths miners. Currently keeping 50/50 cash/equities but keeping a close watch. Ready to offload more into cash to around 80/20 cash/stocks
The markets seem fucked. So much cash pumped into the system and sky-high valuations all over the place. Everyone looking for the next short-term win. Feels like the Nasdaq is on a knife edge and the S&P500 appears to be rolling over. But it just refuses to die... Could Tesla be the straw that breaks its back...? If/when it all goes pop it could be v.messy.
I have a daily reading list to try to keep a handle on sentiment from various angles. It starts with fairly bullish commentators, then goes through a few proven TA folk. But I always finish up with this guy. Ex head of trading at Goldman Sach. He's been calling the market correction since late last year. It's all macro, not individual companies - although he does seem to want a place in hell reserved for Tesla, for which he accurately called the drop last week. https://twitter.com/alexharfouche1
Ignore the temporary name - he changed it this week to something tulip-themed and 'invented' a crypto called 'Tullipcoin' for lols.. you can guess his view on crypto :lol: Up until yesterday you could have read his expert commentary on various macro factors in play.. now he's just messing around with his new tullip toy so I guess he thinks the pop is now imminent.
BTC was nice the last couple of weeks, sold out end of last week with 200% gain in 7 days. Crypto seems to be an easy trade using TA, provided you can stomach the volatility and sell the rip. Hoping for a pullback to 48-50k before it goes again.
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BTW Fultonius if you missed out on ETH gains then your opportunity is coming up. TA suggesting it drops all the way to 1000 - 1200 before it goes again. Peak crypto around May/June.. BTD.. (not advice!).
BTC correcting to 30-35k on the cards. I'll be buying some for the bounce if it hits 35k.
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From the two previous big BTC bull runs I'd suggest if/ when it does correct it will not be long before it is back down below $20k and $12k would not be unlikely, followed by a fairly long (18 months period) of fairly stagnant fluctuations ~$20k before another big run to >$100k. But yeah there's a good chance of a brief bounce if you've got the time to watch carefully and move fast. Having sat through the last long stagnant period I stupidly sold mine as soon as I'd made half decent gains and missed most of the current run.
The question is when or if, as some predict, it drops the volatility and becomes the safe haven when the wider market crashes. I don't think we are there yet but am no expert. Taleb tweeted last week that he'd sold all his because the ongoing volatility suggests the experiment has failed. (Or having got out near the top he wanted to help it crash.)
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I stupidly sold mine as soon as I'd made half decent gains and missed most of the current run.
I did the same - but - its not stupid, we still made a decent return! Just not as good as it could have been if we had a crystal ball!
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No, it was stupid to sell it all. Should have taken half out or just the increase.
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From the two previous big BTC bull runs I'd suggest if/ when it does correct it will not be long before it is back down below $20k and $12k would not be unlikely, followed by a fairly long (18 months period) of fairly stagnant fluctuations ~$20k before another big run to >$100k. But yeah there's a good chance of a brief bounce if you've got the time to watch carefully and move fast. Having sat through the last long stagnant period I stupidly sold mine as soon as I'd made half decent gains and missed most of the current run.
The question is when or if, as some predict, it drops the volatility and becomes the safe haven when the wider market crashes. I don't think we are there yet but am no expert. Taleb tweeted last week that he'd sold all his because the ongoing volatility suggests the experiment has failed. (Or having got out near the top he wanted to help it crash.)
I purely use TA.. or rather others who know their trades' TA.. to enter/exit BTC. It has no fundamentals to speak of. It's just trading momentum and sentiment, so TA works well.
Northstar and Sahara have both been accurate in the last 12 months I've been following them. Northstar has it touching the 100 day moving average, which would be around 27 - 30,000 depending how long it takes to get there. Then peaking May/June at around 120-150k before an even stronger pullback.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/OtdFBXNliMwMTVXmIqp53lRYSvTnq3xOTJ3SlgE9vgkrapBmyczqRtS2yRFpP3d6htLhbzX5faLYnaZTAy5e1PIe-TG13K19-yFjl5pp5155N83A4snFQNE33lO22NnfdiJ2dzv0W-u4LHMx8MR_wGGS1KJi8jH9vjZ2lZRuxAhpxjLwUZsZic0RMSsyqDy2DDQYPEfWh-Evtw2f3IjsRpC71Vd04yObrbqxyYzUUi7iRiS6ji7y6HnaRSmwQwb7GjFpYxmDdPAbWi7Bu2BJJfQBuQL322JEhoSx0ug7rnIvcwsPYVzzWzRcwi8RJWi8YO0ZvzzWsjjootyYQlFo7eFsIInHKwbPf4vC2qhfh52wHsxtvkeiuU80Wvv0FL1Sk4NoSIZ1X2ByhYkFTupAOZNG-NsSVnXa4UVJjdPtCOQkXC7p0dc4IVfHJajYyK6nirg_GdQwxm0ItZIFQjMaGT30e5LJ71ZQH6fjuMo8tbiqwQ2ysjfXnR5cDh90W74QuAzVOHoJ2uxjn3h21SwXg1qO0i-YvxUUsW49-9xzzwRZS-Ee8R4KNn64wRuQjniBu7q4hyHCvcGh7c_EtSNFiB6LDe-NNyT5jch8yKOLD4oMieYTFYxr8KLCnqA2-zsvzuJS-sofRtRPsLYXrHC4SROnUHA2wziVMe2Q2XYcEz7yQHP6DKnUAE8C_HfK=w1480-h656-no?authuser=0)
The only certainty is that we'll find out.
https://twitter.com/NorthstarCharts
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Haha - people have been trying to find cycles in stocks since they were invented (cycles or stocks!) :D
Bon chance... I'm off to look at my tea leaves, statistically the same :)
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Ah, great chart thanks. Log y axis makes so much more sense - followed.
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Right, so, the big crash is coming, right?
I'm seriously considering cashing my my returns from this year, and getting back in after a slump. I can cope with "missing gains".
So, what are the risk of this strategy:
- If it sits as cash too long, it'll be eroded by inflation.[1]
- I get it wrong, there is no crash - see point 1 above - that's just "missed gains", whatever...I've "missed £4k of ETH "GAINZ" this year, pretty much over it.
Any more?
I'm happy enough with "riding out a dip" as I have no need for the cash short term but with all the shit going on in the world, I do feel it could be a long, protracted flatline....
1- would it be worth hedging against inflation? I guess metals are the usual hedges?
Good post from Pete. Some other thoughts (all personal views):
- It depends what you're investing in, but a significant degree of total return in mature markets is often derived from dividends and other distributions, especially when these are reinvested. If you're not holding, whilst you're avoiding potential volatility you're also missing out on this aspect of the total return. Especially in the "long protracted flatline" scenario.
- The game Coops posted is fun, but it makes a serious point; timing the markets is an impossibility. Your consideration should be how long you intend to remain invested before you need the money. If you can't afford to lose it, or there's any risk of becoming a forced seller, you shouldn't be investing that money.
- If you are really worried about markets falling that's saying more about your tolerance of risk than it is about how markets falling would actually affect your total returns (assuming you have a long time horizon). In that case, think about moving to lower risk rated securities or assets. Remember cash isn't the only alternative to equities; there are all sorts of other options available.
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Haha - people have been trying to find cycles in stocks since they were invented (cycles or stocks!) :D
Bon chance... I'm off to look at my tea leaves, statistically the same :)
You're wrong but I can't be bothered debating, that's not what this thread is for. As the meme goes, enjoy staying poor.
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Another thought for Fultonius - I'm half convincing myself here.
Have a think about how you'd feel if your portfolio dropped by 5, 10, 15, 50%. Try to visualise what it would feel like if you had lost that sort of value (on paper), and decide how that would affect you. A useful exercise in understanding what your risk tolerance level looks like.
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You should only think about selling some/all of your stocks if a) you will need the cash in the medium to long(ish) term or b) you think you paid too much for them and they were overvalued when you bought them. If you bought them at a fair price then they will always return to at least that level and probably go higher in the future.
I am keeping all my positions at the moment despite an increasing number of doom mongers for both of the reasons above. I am just not putting any more in for the near future so I can hold cash for when stocks drop 30%-50% and I can buy in.
I am more interested in making sure I am positioned to take advantage of the next bull run in crypto. I sold half my Bitcoin way too early but have covered my positions and much more with Ether, Stellar Lumens and XRP. Just waiting to see if the prices drop to what I am willing to pay. I had already decided this a while ago but there is a little voice in my head telling me to buy in now because of FOMO! I will stick to my guns though as it has served me well so far. Allegedly Ether dropped to $700 for an hour overnight on one exchange. That didn't show on mine or any of the others (not sure of the reason to be honest) but that it is a price I would have been willing to buy in hard. I learnt my lesson to be patient with Ether after selling a chunk of mine at £400. Bitcoin and the main altcoins could come down and stagnate for a while but you just have to be patient I learned. I look at the 2025 or even the 2030 predictions (which are nonsense) but even if I take the lowest prediction it is still worth holding on, especially if you can sell some during intermittent bulls and cover your original investment.
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AMTE Power are looking to begin listing on AIM next month. They are one of the few commercial battery manufacturers in the UK at the moment. There's been various reports linking them to Britishvolt (the company behind the proposed UK 'gigaplant' that has kept popping up in the news in various locations), but nothing concrete. They currently have there own relatively small scale (by global standards) plant in Thurso. Something to at least keep an eye on.
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Haha - people have been trying to find cycles in stocks since they were invented (cycles or stocks!) :D
Bon chance... I'm off to look at my tea leaves, statistically the same :)
You're wrong but I can't be bothered debating, that's not what this thread is for. As the meme goes, enjoy staying poor.
I'd be genuinely interested if you could provide compelling statistical evidence as to why tomtom is wrong. Personally I don't find lines of arguments along the lines of "so and so's technical analysis has been accurate over the last 12 months" very compelling.
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Haha - people have been trying to find cycles in stocks since they were invented (cycles or stocks!) :D
Bon chance... I'm off to look at my tea leaves, statistically the same :)
You're wrong but I can't be bothered debating, that's not what this thread is for. As the meme goes, enjoy staying poor.
I'd be genuinely interested if you could provide compelling statistical evidence as to why tomtom is wrong. Personally I don't find lines of arguments along the lines of "so and so's technical analysis has been accurate over the last 12 months" very compelling.
Especially when much of the recent movement appears to have been driven by Elon Musk's Twitter account.
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You should only think about selling some/all of your stocks if a) you will need the cash in the medium to long(ish) term or b) you think you paid too much for them and they were overvalued when you bought them. If you bought them at a fair price then they will always return to at least that level and probably go higher in the future.
This is a great point. You need to think through the investment case for each of your holdings. Does it still make sense? Are the reasons you chose that investment over another still holding true? Is there anything out there that makes more sense or looks more attractive right now?
As an example, if you hold Scottish Mortgage and you selected that fund because you think the managers are good stock pickers and there is the potential for growth in the technology sector, do those things still hold true? If they do, why would you sell?
Consider also the reasons bubbles form, and where. Which sectors / areas of the market are actually affected? As an example, Tesla has been looking extremely over valued recently, but does that extend to the rest of the S&P500?
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Haha - people have been trying to find cycles in stocks since they were invented (cycles or stocks!) :D
Bon chance... I'm off to look at my tea leaves, statistically the same :)
You're wrong but I can't be bothered debating, that's not what this thread is for. As the meme goes, enjoy staying poor.
I'd be genuinely interested if you could provide compelling statistical evidence as to why tomtom is wrong. Personally I don't find lines of arguments along the lines of "so and so's technical analysis has been accurate over the last 12 months" very compelling.
I'm not here for a debate on the merits of TA. Growing wealth is the objective, not debating the merits of different forms of research and market signals. Take it, leave it. Use it, don't use it. I'm not interested in providing you with a case for or against and you aren't supposed to be compelled by anything here.
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You should only think about selling some/all of your stocks if a) you will need the cash in the medium to long(ish) term or b) you think you paid too much for them and they were overvalued when you bought them. If you bought them at a fair price then they will always return to at least that level and probably go higher in the future.
I am keeping all my positions at the moment despite an increasing number of doom mongers for both of the reasons above. I am just not putting any more in for the near future so I can hold cash for when stocks drop 30%-50% and I can buy in.
I am more interested in making sure I am positioned to take advantage of the next bull run in crypto. I sold half my Bitcoin way too early but have covered my positions and much more with Ether, Stellar Lumens and XRP. Just waiting to see if the prices drop to what I am willing to pay. I had already decided this a while ago but there is a little voice in my head telling me to buy in now because of FOMO! I will stick to my guns though as it has served me well so far. Allegedly Ether dropped to $700 for an hour overnight on one exchange. That didn't show on mine or any of the others (not sure of the reason to be honest) but that it is a price I would have been willing to buy in hard. I learnt my lesson to be patient with Ether after selling a chunk of mine at £400. Bitcoin and the main altcoins could come down and stagnate for a while but you just have to be patient I learned. I look at the 2025 or even the 2030 predictions (which are nonsense) but even if I take the lowest prediction it is still worth holding on, especially if you can sell some during intermittent bulls and cover your original investment.
Thanks for the perspective.
> If things went shit, I'd be able to hold on and ride out - no problems.
> But, I've put about 60% of my available funds into one Equity Fund https://www.triodos.co.uk/ethical-investments/pioneer-impact-fund/LU0785618660
> It's doing well, and the fundamental reason why I support it still stands, if not gets stronger.
I *really* don't want to get into the game of trying to "game the market". Past history says I'm shit at it, and it's stressful. Not my game.
But, I guess I'm a little nervous that I've over committed, and given the doom news, am considering if it may may sense to reduce my exposure a bit, and maybe do something more risk averse with it (pay off some mortgage for example). I've got nowt to spend money on just now, so can see me saving for the next 6 months or so, part of me thinks it might make sense to have a reserve of cash that I could use to buy shares if/when the market tanks. If it doesn't, I can pay off more mortgage or something sensible.
But yeah, if it went down 50%, I'd just have to sit it out for the long haul. I can't see any desperate need for it any time soon.
Cheers all!
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You should only think about selling some/all of your stocks if a) you will need the cash in the medium to long(ish) term or b) you think you paid too much for them and they were overvalued when you bought them. If you bought them at a fair price then they will always return to at least that level and probably go higher in the future.
I am keeping all my positions at the moment despite an increasing number of doom mongers for both of the reasons above. I am just not putting any more in for the near future so I can hold cash for when stocks drop 30%-50% and I can buy in.
I am more interested in making sure I am positioned to take advantage of the next bull run in crypto. I sold half my Bitcoin way too early but have covered my positions and much more with Ether, Stellar Lumens and XRP. Just waiting to see if the prices drop to what I am willing to pay. I had already decided this a while ago but there is a little voice in my head telling me to buy in now because of FOMO! I will stick to my guns though as it has served me well so far. Allegedly Ether dropped to $700 for an hour overnight on one exchange. That didn't show on mine or any of the others (not sure of the reason to be honest) but that it is a price I would have been willing to buy in hard. I learnt my lesson to be patient with Ether after selling a chunk of mine at £400. Bitcoin and the main altcoins could come down and stagnate for a while but you just have to be patient I learned. I look at the 2025 or even the 2030 predictions (which are nonsense) but even if I take the lowest prediction it is still worth holding on, especially if you can sell some during intermittent bulls and cover your original investment.
It's not quite as simple as that. It also depends how much you've gained (or lost) since the original investment. It shouldn't, but the size of the gain affects the future risk/reward. With large gains and high-risk market conditions it's an easy decision to take money off the table. And while good companies will still be good during and after a market correction, they still get dragged down with the fall. Timing is impossible but risk/reward can be tailored to each person's needs.
A simple formula from someone smart:
''Which would disappoint you more -- if you stay in and it halved, or you got out and it doubled.
Quantify your disappointment level in each case on a scale of 1-10.
But then, make your best guess as to the likelihood of those outcomes, percentage-wise.
Adjust those percentages if you are naturally a pessimist or an optimist to reflect your tendency.
And then, multiply the percentages by your disappointment level.
If the results aren't roughly balanced, you may want to rebalance your share holdings.''
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> But, I've put about 60% of my available funds into one Equity Fund https://www.triodos.co.uk/ethical-investments/pioneer-impact-fund/LU0785618660
Diversify, diversify, diversify!!
60% in one fund is a lot, in my personal view. 15-20 funds as a maximum with no more than 30% in any one is a more typical example of a well diversified portfolio.
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Haha - people have been trying to find cycles in stocks since they were invented (cycles or stocks!) :D
Bon chance... I'm off to look at my tea leaves, statistically the same :)
You're wrong but I can't be bothered debating, that's not what this thread is for. As the meme goes, enjoy staying poor.
I'd be genuinely interested if you could provide compelling statistical evidence as to why tomtom is wrong. Personally I don't find lines of arguments along the lines of "so and so's technical analysis has been accurate over the last 12 months" very compelling.
I'm not here for a debate on the merits of TA. Growing wealth is the objective, not debating the merits of different forms of research and market signals. Take it, leave it. Use it, don't use it. I'm not interested in providing you with a case for or against and you aren't supposed to be compelled by anything here.
I'll take that to mean you can't provide any evidence then ;). I'll leave you to your magic beans now 🙂.
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::)
Enjoy your research.
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Diversify, diversify, diversify!!
60% in one fund is a lot, in my personal view. 15-20 funds as a maximum with no more than 30% in any one is a more typical example of a well diversified portfolio.
Since dumping Wynnstay WYN yesterday (mentioned earlier in the thread) I have probably 60% in one illiquid AIM listed company :lol:
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Pete - you’ve just stated categorically that another poster was wrong. Then tacked on an insult about him ‘staying poor’. Then when someone else asked (quite politely) why you were so sure they were wrong you’ve shut the conversation down saying that you’re just not interested in debate. Rude.
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This isn't a debating thread. It's a thread to share stock ideas. If someone doesn't agree with an idea, then they have no reason to do anything about it and there's no benefit in trying to change minds because nobody is trying to convince you of anything. If it turns into a debate every time someone sees something they don't agree with then the thread is pointless and just another ukb endless debating club. If you want to debate, go to another thread. And if it is going to turn into a debating thread, then I'm definitely out.
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Surely you’ve been on UKB long enough now to know that you have literally zero say in how threads one has started develop once they gain a head of steam 😂
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You’ve misunderstood. I’m not trying to convince you to debate on this thread. Just to be less rude. And not throw in unnecessary insults. If you don’t want a debate there’s ways to say it...and then there’s how you said it.
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Please watch this video.
https://youtu.be/0akBdQa55b4
For more information, please rewatch.
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Pete - you’ve just stated categorically that another poster was wrong. Then tacked on an insult about him ‘staying poor’. Then when someone else asked (quite politely) why you were so sure they were wrong you’ve shut the conversation down saying that you’re just not interested in debate. Rude.
You’ve misunderstood. I’m not trying to convince you to debate on this thread. Just to be less rude. And not throw in unnecessary insults. If you don’t want a debate there’s ways to say it...and then there’s how you said it.
Perhaps I should have made it clearer so that TT wasn't so butt hurt - it's a bitcoin meme for fuck sake, said tongue in cheek. I guess the humour was lost in here. ::) Thanks for your lecture.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/3JBxlEonQCcwS3LGeWhsG8gRPv_EvdLuWuvJ0uI0x7JEwsxVgMaxYE7vW8L1NccMcRVYLpeGajKNyYv0oJDDJhNan2tsKQq-uqMQmj8j3SU74pXv15Dx0j_0DEFlsnIr8YYCvejAxURKr2i9csWk_NpiDOEY3rFa5RremDIy8_9PD2qeU3388gtEp2LRntrcg43Y3sRTMlAIHo05JJ2e-SAOYwkQQaewJZZJi1qww_yO0RP4FpLdjlJQwrkvds_R4w6pUbXoyoPGj4X9tv0JVf61adY_SeBSgtJOsTeF0Pt2Hzyejnq-c_3Xr7kwDi2MQStynJx6Ss7r3M-wwZwahBIJAZKfLZriycRpEbOd37yT9SO45I4YLDCvQmx_2ETb6-b4ZPhpfND31MjpyGoHo_LSQLEwyIirvcqUCkjdad_74_TnQg-lFd38IUZAjgkbMVJa46XXr9XUYhpXkkMTEqzN26azj8G42aRC75WSL0JvreL-_FFBvVD2ruuLbFSJ89ou65vDrbgCFAas9sb-Zee0F4rwYs90qYFHneQwQTBthHjmPgxdk8v0U7PPCKXIXufcPkTFteql4_OM4VogCJRjyEeilxm_5H5QkJMbl8969Gd9t1Vtx5022xWKp2I0QojYcwiBkIa5j5n2VE0pK4glbypjwYjuGkVwWyrqXn03UQ7Pb0oXTkms_R2Q=w347-h202-no?authuser=0)
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This is an interesting thread guys. Quick question I'm hoping someone could help with. Hopefully this isn't too off topic.
In the past I've had investments in a couple of index trackers - FTSE 100, FTSE small caps. Both did ok but I cashed them out to reduce the size of the new mortgage when we moved house. I'm now ready to invest again.
Part of me wants to get properly involved with a greater range of investments but being honest with myself I really don't have the time to do proper research, so I'm more inclined to just buy in to some index trackers or some very well diversified funds than any specific stocks, to mitigate the risk of making a bad choice. I've got a decent amount to invest and a long time horizon. The problem is, I would like to avoid investing in specific sectors. Is there a way to do this? Eg, a FTSE tracker that excludes aerospace and defence, or an international tracker that excludes oil and gas? I'm aware of the various "sustainable" investments but looking for something more specific. I'm not sure if something like this exists?
Thanks
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You're wrong but I can't be bothered debating, that's not what this thread is for. As the meme goes, enjoy staying poor.
Perhaps I should have made it clearer so that TT wasn't so butt hurt - it's a bitcoin meme for fuck sake, said tongue in cheek. I guess the humour was lost in here.
Ah ok gotcha. Patronising bantz. Good one.
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You're wrong but I can't be bothered debating, that's not what this thread is for. As the meme goes, enjoy staying poor.
Perhaps I should have made it clearer so that TT wasn't so butt hurt - it's a bitcoin meme for fuck sake, said tongue in cheek. I guess the humour was lost in here.
Ah ok gotcha. Patronising bantz. Good one.
It’s not patronising, I don’t own Bitcoin and am aware, it’s a famous meme, and the Bitcoiners stole it from the hedge fund bankers.
Can we get back on topic please the posts were interesting.
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If we're making up arbitrary rules for what's allowed in this thread, I reckon all future talk of Bitcoin should be banned. The is the "investor's" thread, and Bitcoin is not an investment, it's a gamble. ;)
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Part of me wants to get properly involved with a greater range of investments but being honest with myself I really don't have the time to do proper research, so I'm more inclined to just buy in to some index trackers or some very well diversified funds than any specific stocks, to mitigate the risk of making a bad choice. I've got a decent amount to invest and a long time horizon. The problem is, I would like to avoid investing in specific sectors. Is there a way to do this? Eg, a FTSE tracker that excludes aerospace and defence, or an international tracker that excludes oil and gas? I'm aware of the various "sustainable" investments but looking for something more specific. I'm not sure if something like this exists?
Thanks
Would ETFs be appropriate, there seems to be some for every possible sector?
Near the bottom of the page under 'ETFs by theme' there's a 'socially responsible' option which might have what you're looking for.
https://www.justetf.com/uk/etf-lists.html
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If we're making up arbitrary rules for what's allowed in this thread, I reckon all future talk of Bitcoin should be banned. The is the "investor's" thread, and Bitcoin is not an investment, it's a gamble. ;)
Maybe the title needs changing to “UKB users’ list of stock picks”. No debate. No conversation. No cryptocurrency.
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This is an interesting thread guys. Quick question I'm hoping someone could help with. Hopefully this isn't too off topic.
In the past I've had investments in a couple of index trackers - FTSE 100, FTSE small caps. Both did ok but I cashed them out to reduce the size of the new mortgage when we moved house. I'm now ready to invest again.
Part of me wants to get properly involved with a greater range of investments but being honest with myself I really don't have the time to do proper research, so I'm more inclined to just buy in to some index trackers or some very well diversified funds than any specific stocks, to mitigate the risk of making a bad choice. I've got a decent amount to invest and a long time horizon. The problem is, I would like to avoid investing in specific sectors. Is there a way to do this? Eg, a FTSE tracker that excludes aerospace and defence, or an international tracker that excludes oil and gas? I'm aware of the various "sustainable" investments but looking for something more specific. I'm not sure if something like this exists?
Thanks
I don't know much about ETFs and even less about trackers. But just to say that your long time horizon could be key as it seems we're at or near the end of this current bull market, so any investment now is more likely to underperform over the next 6-24 months than your previous investment during the last 10 years of bullish sentiment. It might be better to drip feed in monthly amounts as the market is falling, to average out your cost.
This makes me think of Sequencing Risk and withdrawals during a bull or bear market, which is the reverse of what you're looking at.
The idea is basically a badly-timed withdrawal from a pension fund, during a downturn in the markets, ends up compounding the gains missed - the longer the timescale the larger the compounded unrealised gain.
It's a similar effect in reverse for the financial consequences of investing the main portion of your savings into a fund over either the course of a bear or a bull market. Long term it averages out - in a way sort of opposite to how, long term, the pension fund does worse and worse comparatively. But over a 5 or 10 year timescale the difference in returns from your initial investment could be significant.
You could probably calculate the difference in returns between if you invested the whole of your savings into 'fund x' on one day when the market is high and then falls for, say, 18 months; versus dripping in cash over 12 or more of the months when the market is falling.
Of course no-one can say when the market will start falling significantly.
There's a really good site that shows the effects of Sequencing Risk for withdrawals during a bull or bear market from a pension fund, here for anyone interested. https://www.firecalc.com/
And an intro to Sequence Risk here: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sequence-risk.asp
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And an intro to Sequence Risk here: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sequence-risk.asp
So the rules of Finance Club are:
- links to finance theory - acceptable.
- discussing validity of finance theory - unacceptable.
Feels a bit like the Catholic Church in the 14th century.
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The is the "investor's" thread, and Bitcoin is not an investment, it's a gamble. ;)
But but but Pete has a graph, so I can see exactly where he has told me to remortgage and sink everything into buying Bitcoin!
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Part of me wants to get properly involved with a greater range of investments but being honest with myself I really don't have the time to do proper research, so I'm more inclined to just buy in to some index trackers or some very well diversified funds than any specific stocks, to mitigate the risk of making a bad choice. I've got a decent amount to invest and a long time horizon. The problem is, I would like to avoid investing in specific sectors. Is there a way to do this? Eg, a FTSE tracker that excludes aerospace and defence, or an international tracker that excludes oil and gas? I'm aware of the various "sustainable" investments but looking for something more specific. I'm not sure if something like this exists?
Thanks
Would ETFs be appropriate, there seems to be some for every possible sector?
Near the bottom of the page under 'ETFs by theme' there's a 'socially responsible' option which might have what you're looking for.
https://www.justetf.com/uk/etf-lists.html
And there's this link https://www.justetf.com/uk/how-to/invest-in-social-responsibility-europe.html for a quick overview of which sectors some of the popular 'socially responsible' indexes include/exclude. You may be surprised by some of them.
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And an intro to Sequence Risk here: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sequence-risk.asp
So the rules of Finance Club are:
- links to finance theory - acceptable.
- discussing validity of finance theory - unacceptable.
Feels a bit like the Catholic Church in the 14th century.
I was trying to offer something helpful - It isn't 'finance theory' in the sense of a philosophy or technique that's up for debate.. sequence risk is just compounding of gains (for investing) and compounding of unrealised gains (for withdrawals) in the context of either a rising or a falling market. There's no debate, it's just maths.
If you want to debate theory why don't you do it on the many other economic threads on ukb - it's a broad church.. or should be.
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I don't know much about ETFs and even less about trackers. But just to say that your long time horizon could be key as it seems we're at or near the end of this current bull market, so any investment now is more likely to underperform over the next 6-24 months than your previous investment during the last 10 years of bullish sentiment. It might be better to drip feed in monthly amounts as the market is falling, to average out your cost.
Thanks Pete, and Chris and SDM for the links, which are really useful. On your comments about the end of the bull market - are you talking globally here? To a novice it doesn't really feel like UK or EU shares are at the end of a bull run as they still haven't recovered to early 2020 levels in most cases. I suppose if US stocks crashed they would/could take everything with them..?
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Diversify, diversify, diversify!!
60% in one fund is a lot, in my personal view. 15-20 funds as a maximum with no more than 30% in any one is a more typical example of a well diversified portfolio.
Since dumping Wynnstay WYN yesterday (mentioned earlier in the thread) I have probably 60% in one illiquid AIM listed company :lol:
Was there a particular reason for this? I thought they were your longterm / stable earner?
I have enjoyed (most) of this thread so far, and am also quite enjoying The Long and Short of It.
When wife and I sell our house and go our separate ways I'll almost certainly be renting for a year or 2-3, so am quite keen to put the money to work. Pete's various links early on have made interesting reading.
There was a passage early on in one of Michael Lewis's books (I think it was Liar's Poker) in which he, as a bond trader, casually dismissed the entire practice of share trading as unknowable gambling, rather like the dismissal of crypto above. Personally, I'm more interested in all of this as a means to an end, and so I would quite like crypto to carry on as part of the discussion (as I assume some others would too)...
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Personally, I'm more interested in all of this as a means to an end, and so I would quite like crypto to carry on as part of the discussion (as I assume some others would too)...
I was only trying to annoy Pete. Bantz init ;)
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There was a passage early on in one of Michael Lewis's books (I think it was Liar's Poker) in which he, as a bond trader, casually dismissed the entire practice of share trading as unknowable gambling,
I came across some piece recently, forget where, where they'd modelled markets based on rationality of buying and selling decisions. Turned out a functioning market still emerged even when all decisions were entirely random.
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Yes. And re technical analysis - if a large number of traders are basing their decisions on momentum indicators like RSI, you obviously have an insight on what they're all going to do before they do it. Much might be unknowable, but perhaps the point is that, if lots of people are behaving as if it is and / or basing their behaviour on historical information, then it becomes more knowable.
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Thanks Pete, and Chris and SDM for the links, which are really useful. On your comments about the end of the bull market - are you talking globally here? To a novice it doesn't really feel like UK or EU shares are at the end of a bull run as they still haven't recovered to early 2020 levels in most cases. I suppose if US stocks crashed they would/could take everything with them..?
Yes I'm talking more about the US market than the UK/Euro markets, many of the commodities companies I invest in are listed on the US, Canadian or Australian markets. In the US valuations, for tech companies especially, currently are sky-high and unsustainable - see the tanking of Tesla for the most obvious recent example of a mythical valuation hitting the wall of reality. The problem being once a few big cards tumble and the fear goes beyond a certain point - predicted to be when the S&P 500 reaches approx 3750 - the way institutional investment works there'll be an automatic and accelerating liquidation of equities into safer waters, which reinforces the momentum downwards. Safer waters starting to look like long-term treasury yields, shorting the market, and possibly commodities. But obviously everything is interlinked - UK pension and investment funds will be liquidating stocks too, and good companies as well as bad will drop (which is where value investing really pays off when you can see good companies drop below fair value). The UK market's not as overvalued but still very likely to turn bearish upon any significant correction in the US. The unknown is how long the US gov and Fed etc. can keep kicking the can down the road by suppressing inflation and injecting ever more money-tree cash into the system.
See Alex Harfouche's feed for some quality evidence-based doom predictions: https://twitter.com/alexharfouche1
As far as TA goes, it's just a tool to be used in combination with other knowledge. Foolish to act only on it alone. But it's useful to add to the arsenal, in the context of researching to identify fundamental value, spotting trends, planning entry and exit points, understanding investor psychology. Perhaps its greatest virtue is it gives you a plan to trade to rather than trading by using emotion and instinct. The market works by tricking your emotions - fear and greed. TA just provides a framework for dispassionate decision making. A (poor) analogy is 'training'. Training just provides a somewhat evidence-based framework for getting better results, if used intelligently, than 'not training'. But many people are shit at training and get poor results despite training, yet still they train. Some people use training very well to get good results. Some people think training is bullshit. It doesn't mean 'training' itself is bunkum.
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There was a passage early on in one of Michael Lewis's books (I think it was Liar's Poker) in which he, as a bond trader, casually dismissed the entire practice of share trading as unknowable gambling,
I came across some piece recently, forget where, where they'd modelled markets based on rationality of buying and selling decisions. Turned out a functioning market still emerged even when all decisions were entirely random.
Sounds fascinating. If you are able to dig out a link that would be great.
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AMTE Power are looking to begin listing on AIM next month. They are one of the few commercial battery manufacturers in the UK at the moment. There's been various reports linking them to Britishvolt (the company behind the proposed UK 'gigaplant' that has kept popping up in the news in various locations), but nothing concrete. They currently have there own relatively small scale (by global standards) plant in Thurso. Something to at least keep an eye on.
Will be keeping my eye on this company. Have read rumours that they'll be supplying the batteries for Jaguar Landrover's new fleet of EVs, but haven't seen any details. Definitely a hot market to be in. Trackwise Designs and Ilika the other two in this market - TWD for lightweight printed wiring harness technology used in aerospace and EVs, Ilika for solid state batteries. Check out QuantumScape in the US for crazy valuation, they've managed to produce a solid state cell which they think they can commercialise by 2023, VW reportedly interested.
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry-news/jaguar-become-all-electric-brand-2025
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1612779825575936700/lithium-battery-maker-amte-power-plans-march-ipo-on-londons-aim.aspx
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I'll be interested to see if the solid state batteries bear fruit. I only have a passing interest, but it feels like one of those technologies that's perpetually 2-3 years from a commercial reality. When I was working at Dyson around 2014-15 they spent some big bucks buying a promising looking solid state battery firm which (as far as Im aware) has yet to produce anything useful.
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Solid state batteries charged by nuclear fusion, coming to you any decade now 😄
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Buy the dipole...
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I'll be interested to see if the solid state batteries bear fruit. I only have a passing interest, but it feels like one of those technologies that's perpetually 2-3 years from a commercial reality. When I was working at Dyson around 2014-15 they spent some big bucks buying a promising looking solid state battery firm which (as far as Im aware) has yet to produce anything useful.
Quantumscape are one of the only companies to put out real data (which, of the data I've seen is very impressive), and it certainly seems as though they have a very usable electrolyte material - I went and purchased a bunch today at their current price.
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I'll be interested to see if the solid state batteries bear fruit. I only have a passing interest, but it feels like one of those technologies that's perpetually 2-3 years from a commercial reality. When I was working at Dyson around 2014-15 they spent some big bucks buying a promising looking solid state battery firm which (as far as Im aware) has yet to produce anything useful.
Quantumscape are one of the only companies to put out real data (which, of the data I've seen is very impressive), and it certainly seems as though they have a very usable electrolyte material - I went and purchased a bunch today at their current price.
Very interesting, sounds like you are more in the loop than I am, will have a closer look at Quantumscape.
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Problem with Quantumscape is their valuation, typically huge as per the US tech bubble - at a market cap of $21.7 billion for a start up with no revenue this doesn't leave a lot of space for share price growth. That said the hype around solid state batteries and the EV sector in general guarantees a wild ride on any positive news for QS - plenty of investor sentiment froth to profit off. Ilika in comparison is at a market cap of £300 million. They don't need the scale of success that Quantumscape do to achieve a huge increase in share price value. Also, they have a product about to become commercially viable with their miniature medical-implant solid state battery going into mass production this year - the Stereax. Set to revolutionise implants and also internet of things, that rely on remote sensors with long life power source. Check out the technology here: https://www.ilika.com/battery-technology/downloads/stereax-p180
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In fact right on time, Ilika just released a manufacturing update this morning..
Sterax on track for 70 x production capacity increase by end of 2021. Sales expected in 1st half of 2022.
https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announcement/3260a02e-ddd1-4c86-858e-85b400681c06/
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I see the GME games are starting all over again for anyone that hasn't lost interest already.
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Good story going on with Chromadex, manufacturers of Tru Niagen (nicotinimide riboside), a patented form of B3. I've taken NR since 2014, initially to aid recovery of a damaged sciatic nerve following back surgery. I posted at various times last year on the covid thread about the supposed benefits of B3 for mitochondrial health and recovery from covid. Various pilot, phase 1 and phase 2 studies were carried out last year.
I'm a long term investor in Chromadex, they've always promised much but never quite delivered until this week.
Today the results of the phase 3 study dropped. See covid thread. Chromadex up 85% on the day, up hundreds of % in the last 5-10 days. I sold a bit too early on this one! Good to see them doing well as it's been a long road. NR is an interesting vitamin with a lot of potential. Share price here could go totally parabolic but likely to drop like a stone again just as quickly. But a good one for those interested in biotech, when it settles back down.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/phase-3-clinical-study-finds-113000203.html
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Slightly off topic.
So i am working away at the moment and on a Euro day rate. This has lost £25 a day since the job started. When i get paid i put money in a Euro Business account. The plan is to transfer into my £ Current account when exchange rate is better.
Anyone follow currencies and think my situation will get better anytime soon or do i just take the hit.
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Was just looking at this myself. My reading was that the recent gains the £ has made are overblown and not based on any fundamental, therefore likely to correct. Did correct a fair bit today.
More than happy to be corrected by those who know a bit more about what they're talking about!
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Was just looking at this myself. My reading was that the recent gains the £ has made are overblown and not based on any fundamental, therefore likely to correct. Did correct a fair bit today.
More than happy to be corrected by those who know a bit more about what they're talking about!
Its gained a few quid today but not much. Hoping for more like £20/25... £25 a day over 3 months is a bit of a hit for me. £2250 over 3 months. Could do with the money in my pocket instead.
You in a similar situation? Ive just opened a Starling Euro Business account, and will be in Europe most of my time for next 18 months.
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Nah, but my S&S ISA is a euro denominated fund, so if I sell any shares just now it's taking a hit. Kind of assumed there was a low risk of GBP getting stronger (brexit basket case), so wasn't too worried about the currency risk - always learning!
I've actually started noting down my decisions when I make them, so that when I'm thinking back I can remind myself of why I think things are a good decision at the time. (Easy to reimagine the past...)
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Can anyone point me in the direction of some reading around bonds/bond yields and their effect on economy and/or market please?
I have done plenty of research over the last couple of years but can’t get my head around them....
Example now...bond yields spiking...causing bond self off...causing strengthening dollar....and part of the reason stocks sliding.....(from Bloomberg)
I just don’t understand bonds, bond yields and where they fit in to the wider market :shrug:
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Nah, but my S&S ISA is a euro denominated fund, so if I sell any shares just now it's taking a hit. Kind of assumed there was a low risk of GBP getting stronger (brexit basket case), so wasn't too worried about the currency risk - always learning!
I've actually started noting down my decisions when I make them, so that when I'm thinking back I can remind myself of why I think things are a good decision at the time. (Easy to reimagine the past...)
Reflecting on this - I'm probably just reading the opinions I want to hear.... Most of the indicators are still saying buy GBP.
On Gold Pete - your man Northstar was saying interesting things: https://twitter.com/NorthstarCharts/status/1365083827660599302?s=20
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Can anyone point me in the direction of some reading around bonds/bond yields and their effect on economy and/or market please?
I have done plenty of research over the last couple of years but can’t get my head around them....
Example now...bond yields spiking...causing bond self off...causing strengthening dollar....and part of the reason stocks sliding.....(from Bloomberg)
I just don’t understand bonds, bond yields and where they fit in to the wider market :shrug:
Long-term (10yr) bond yields are the benchmark for 'zero risk' return.
Equities are valued at a premium relative to the zero risk return of long term bonds. This is due to the time value of money - why invest for ten years in something risky, which may or may not give your an x% return, when a zero risk option gives you a return of x-minus the difference between equity risk premium and long-term bond yield.
High bond yields affect growth stocks the most. Growth stocks are often tech companies with no profits but future potential, like Tesla etc. They are given a valuation based on profits estimated a long time out in the future. Hence the time value of money impacts these stocks the most as a billion dollars of profit 15 years from now isn't worth a billion dollars in value today, due to inflation and also due to the opportunity cost of not investing in a 10-year bond that could have given you a safe 1.6% or higher (likely to go higher).
The big problem in the US being that future earnings potential for risky tech stocks has been getting stretched further and further into the future, by risk investors looking for a return in a low interest rates environment. It's a bubble and its bursting now. The time value of money is hitting home.
One other thing about bond yields is they might not be bad for all stocks as they also predict strong growth in the economy.
Value stocks are less affected than growth stocks. Value stocks are companies undervalued by the market based on fundamentals such as actually having strong earnings today or in the near future, profitable or about to turn profitable in the very near future, or valuable product about to hit the market - not in 10 years but in 6-12 months. These are the companies to look for in a correction. They're often undervalued simply due to being out of fashion (sentiment), or previous poor performance but have turned around since.
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Benjamin Graham is your friend although it is said to be getting harder to unearth true value propositions any more; technological advancements are a double edged sword in that respect with information being much more freely available than ever before. NAV is your best friend :)
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On Gold Pete - your man Northstar was saying interesting things: https://twitter.com/NorthstarCharts/status/1365083827660599302?s=20
Yep looking forward to hear his thoughts. TA long-term suggesting gold in a bullish descending wedge but I'm not betting anything on it either way! There are good reasons for gold companies forecasting their next 3 years at an average gold price of $1,300 -1400.
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Example now...bond yields spiking...causing bond self off...
Just on this bit - bond yields and bond prices are effectively two ways of describing the same thing. The bond yield is the rate of return you would get if you bought the bond at the current market price and then received the payments over time.
So bond yields and bond prices are tied in an inverse relationship.
If bonds are being sold off, then supply/demand suggests prices go down, and another way of saying that is that yields go up. Or, if you believe that yields are going to go up, then your view of the right price would go down, and therefore you ought to sell before the price does fall.
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Correction ongoing in the US following fed’s announcement. The s&p 500 is only just above the 3750 level.. below that things accelerate downwards. UK market catching the cold too.
Could be great buying opportunities over the coming weeks and months as panic spreads.
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Hmmm.... been sitting on selling shares to see what happened with the UK budget. Oh well, might need to ride this out!
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BTC could be providing a good buying opportunity soon.. I'm still hoping for under 40k to buy in. I trade ARB shares not btc itself, less faff.
Most of my pf down on the week and the month, but I'm happy to have taken out a load of profits earlier in the year and it's waiting on the sidelines for the drop. Thing may get ugly in the short term as the froth gets removed from US tech stocks and everything else gets a shakedown.
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Yep,the portfolio I put together of US stocks is down from +20% earlier this year to -6%. I am not going to sell anything though as I am happy to hold on for a few years and I don't think I bought anything outrageously over priced although a rising tide and all that with things like Tesla getting pumped etc.
I have been beefing up my Crypto portfolio in the meantime. I am fully aware this is fully speculative but I am trying to balance it out so hopefully I back a couple of the right horses which may pay for losses elsewhere. I have missed most of the big Crypto runs so far and even if I don't get one this time (in the next 3-5 years) I don't want to regret not trying. My main annoyance/concern is the amount of exchanges I have had to sign up for to access the coins I want and their respective fees/security. My portfolio is so far balanced like this:
Bitcoin - 25%
Ether - 25%
XRP - 10%
XLM - 10%
ADA - 10%
MIOTA - 7%
DOT - 7%
XDC - 6%
That ratios are approx. as I am buying at different times depending on price. e.g. last weekend was good to buy ETH as it dropped to £940 which is low relative to recent prices and last night or the night before I stocked up on ADA as it dropped to $1.04. I haven't bought into BTC for ages as I can't help but feel it is over priced. The last order I had setup was to buy in was at £20k but that would be an unbelievable bargain compared to prices these days! I have not decided when to buy in again but I will try not to get tempted until it goes south of £30k. I made good returns this year trading XLM and XRP but they seem to have a much higher resistance level now. I am not buying in again unless they go down to £0.2 and £0.24 respectively. I am looking to just buy and hold for a few years now rather than try and trade the swings between £0.2 and £0.4. Anyway, it will be interesting to see how it goes. Going to put in an amount (say 10% of all investments) that I can afford to lose without being impoverished and strap myself in for the ride for the next few years!
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Piece in the telegraph on ethical investing: ‘can I be a socialist and profit from the stock market?’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/money-makeover/money-makeover-can-socialist-still-profit-stock-markets/
(paywalled)
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Government R&D competition funding for EV innovations:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/20-million-fund-fuels-search-for-electric-vehicle-innovations
And,
''The Faraday Institution, the UK's independent institute for electrochemical energy storage research and skills development, estimates that Britain will need one gigafactory by 2022, two gigafactories by 2025 and eight gigafactories by 2040 to meet demand for electric vehicles and batteries.''
New Tesla gigafactory planned for Somerset? https://uk.motor1.com/news/492760/gigafactory-uk-appears-to-be-in-works/amp/
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I know this thread is all dips and rips, spills and thrills, but this seemed interesting.
https://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2021/03/a-defence-of-maths-in-economics.html
Despite the title, it's kind of finance-orientated. Proviso: I don't agree with some of the points, and I haven't worked through the maths.
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I've done the "sensible" thing, and pulled out some cash from a volatile (but quite decently performing until the last month) fund, and paid of some mortgage.
It's madness just now, that paying of a chunk of mortgage makes such a piddling difference to how much interest I'll pay back when our 2yr fixed is 1.44%....
Aaanyway, at least that's guaranteed.
Back to the "investing" theme. I think Pete mentioned previously about chalking up any losses to experience, and learning from how you react etc.
In July I opened my first Stocks & Share ISA, and put in some spare money to my aforementioned sustainable development fund. At the time the NAV was £48.
In November I had noticed my savings account filling (not bragging, I know how shit lockdown must have been for some, but I've been on the busy side with work and not really spent any money on my usual passions - travel & food!) and thought "hmm, maybe I should put in some more". It had been up to about £53 in Late October, but then dipped a bit again (can't say I was paying a lot of attention). I dithered, forgot about it for a few weeks and then suddenly remembered. Transferred the funds and watched it grow :smartass: NAV was £56
Then, around early to mid Jan I posted something about starting to think I was maybe over-committed given the sheer amount of money printing going on, I can't see how it can be sustainable. Anyway....again....I dithered. It peaked at £61.5 in Jan. Held off, watched, dithered. Finally bit the bullet earlier this week, sold 50%......at......wait for it........£56.....
Ha! Zero sum game for the second round. (well, when you count fees etc., marginal loss)
Actually, I sold slightly more than 50% and left in my initial amount. If you count the whole capital the ROI was 7%, but if you cut out the zero sum game since December...the initial was 16% which isn't bad for 6 months. Put it another way...it's about 30% of the amount I've saved in interest overpaying my mortgage....over 15 years!!!
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/745OTH-eCt8V4aFNEhuax8BlcqLRI2hk3DnQ2AAo-TLvVSEnwAeX_KuTvOpLFmIZF93xiVfsUrzCR5IQudz3NTZ4GtLgTbIMJ_JLbunHj-94FTJu7BXW9XXdTJb9E3g9EnHVEEsrNX_gMSduNswghb3O7KIW0v-H3wm2nAET9Nrb4VruNf6-Z1SUAuiXUMioKXgDtfONh-7Tr4_UvtvRdYmPO6ayhmxNXj10ZUsw5FhwbTe2e_vnLeav_k3bhVRNz42vStr7N3Nrc-5qK5QPPU_Sq1dOrTi8ijFhxhtetYAgJBTFq2vjlu4PUu60yaVBSjKdZK26n-QQ-u6tv671ZMFdC3h9CHiQFBRRjzbdcr8NFhyavJrRYaCz3C5yScVeWFK9uRcNS_5cPP5sXPSoezU3oqVR9f5mqEesoUuvtIlKtTw-yKPZeN_J6MwWTxzaGxc00hor3wK1q22fddCLO4_TV8NPZNHriPCPxc0ajz2s0Dqzz2vECFiv-lMHaQxFN0pZVQuYgkQMyzcDhOXVQxtN97l3l66_O5U4cKwcj8fWoCGWSRg4kO55sNysUaVXvnqnh7X6yY3imEwqVrrvSMXtemOYPwzPO57ZEniONXuuoNGdoG1xzMb--Nbfku8-KvaWKpTAw_o9KbEBRmmEiw50WrwEG1QAM_hoNyO6eWobm1oONAHRiADvPwhnYbMVuLG4v6dVnhMZY9rdnTUzxdPD=w1003-h607-no?authuser=0)
Dithering cost me about 18%.... (that said, it was never meant to be a short term plan).
Learning learning.
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I've been interested in the investment potential of green hydrogen for a while but haven't yet pulled the trigger on any company. CERES Power Holdings have a nice 12 month chart, up many hundreds of percent, but I haven't researched them enough to know if there's still value there.
Here's a link to Hannam & Partners, I've been reading their 15-page research note on the investment potential and future applications for 'green' hydrogen. It's free to download once registered, registration takes a couple of days to process but once done you'll be able to access research notes on various sectors and companies.
https://www.hannam.partners/disclaimer/
''Market Trends Raise Questions on How Investors Should Play the Market
There has been significant investor interest in supporting hydrogen development, with public market equity investment activity seeing inflows of approximately $4 billion (raised in 2021 YTD) compared to $2.7 billion (raised in all of 2020), and shares in fuel cell companies up over 300% in the last twelve months. This is not to say current publicly-listed companies are not and will not develop successful positions in the market; however, they represent only a small
portion of the opportunity investors should be evaluating.
So, Where Will Green Hydrogen Grow Now, Later, or Never?
We believe green hydrogen (and its value chain) will be attractive for investment when used as a reactant to perform some type of chemistry – not simply as an energy carrier. We believe replacing steam methane reforming with green hydrogen and ammonia production from green hydrogen are both ripe for growth NOW. Decarbonizing steel, transportation fuel and methanol with green hydrogen will be viable within 10 YEARS or more. Glass making and residential heating will likely NEVER be viable. There are expected to be additional niche applications for green hydrogen in distributed storage and transportation over the coming decades.''
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One of the biggest issues with a H2 distribution network for transport is ensuring purity; this is particularly challenging for fuel-cell applications which require >99.9% pure hydrogen.
Using hydrogen in an internal combustion engine is an alternative favoured by some vehicle OEMs as it you can cope with much lower purity, but then the combustion process yield NOx when burnt in air.
The uptake of a hydrogen based economy has many challenges ahead, and in the meantime decarbonisation via other routes will be favoured; for example bio-LNG, though here there are significant challenges for methane slip.
A 10-year outlook for green-H2 adoption seems like a sensible time-frame, and in the meantime any spare H2 will be used in refineries to reduce the CO2 footprint of high-octane gasoline...
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Interesting thanks.
One company I'm looking at is Province Resources, a Swedish company with a green hydrogen project in western Australia. I'd previously invested in them due to their exposure to gold exploration in the Paterson region of WA, but in the short term they fell flat with their exploration target. They recently acquired a green hydrogen project in Western Australia and their share price subsequently saw a large increase, after I'd sold unfortunately.. It's a hot sector, like most of the green energy/EV sectors. Just need to sort the wheat from the chaff.
Company website: https://www.provinceresources.com/
Some info on Province Resources hydrogen project here: https://www.provinceresources.com/hyenergygreenhydrogen
And chat here: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-hydrogen-project-feasibility-studies-commencement.5938000/
Abundance of solar and wind power in the area.
I need to learn more about potential uses. A lot of heavy industry in that part of the world which could use some of the supply? Also talk of exporting.
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Wood PLC are throwing a lot of eggs into the basket of Blue and later Green Hydrogen. They see significant long term growth, and we're already involved in lot of pilot and bigger scale projects - see Methil H100 project is going through planning, My team run the wind turbine that will power that...
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I've been interested in the investment potential of green hydrogen for a while but haven't yet pulled the trigger on any company. CERES Power Holdings have a nice 12 month chart, up many hundreds of percent, but I haven't researched them enough to know if there's still value there.
Do you use linked in Pete?
Many interesting discussions regarding “green” hydrogen on there, mostly around the energy balance needed to make it ( I.e. it needs effectively free carbon-free electricity at 100% capacity factor and unrealistically efficient electrolysis) the lack of suitable electrolyser technology etc etc.
As a long term energy carrier, more hope than reality being driven by the fossil fuel industry - real applications as that research paper notes are fairly niche (though real).
As a short term investment thesis where aspirations and positive spin outweigh reality, then might be a decent bet...
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I'm on it but hardly ever use it, I try to avoid social media as I'm the type of person who'd waste a lot of time on it if I got sucked in! I follow a short list of twitter accounts for information from various angles for investing purposes.
Carbon free electricity at 100% - would that be applicable to large solar farms in desert regions, with little local demand? Wind farms in unpopulated areas etc.?
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A few interesting snippets this week..
Futura Medical (FUM). Received approval from the EU notified body for it's 'erectile dysfuntion gel' to be licensed for sale over the counter without prescription. An interesting story behind the gel is that it was originally the placebo used in a phase 3 trial run by Futura to test effectiveness of their actual product :))) The placebo proved as significantly effective on ED as the product they'd spent years R&D'ing. So Futura dropped the product gel and went with the placebo gel - 'MED3000', available soon in all good chemists.
FUM's share price rocketed from 18p to 80p, settled back down to high 50s. Could be a good medium term punt as they've now also just received FDA approval from the US.
https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/futura-medical-share-price-forecast-26032021/
Arrival (CIIG) largest ever float price for a UK company - $13 billion on NASDAQ this week. They'll be manufacturing EV vans and buses from a plant in Bicester, as well as in the US. Possible links to deals with Trackwise and Ilika.. currently speculation.
https://www.energydigital.com/renewable-energy/british-electric-car-startup-arrival-lists-dollar13-billion
Greatland Gold (GGP). Fallen 50% from ath.. possibly a good buying opportunity in the high teens for the next 12-18 months as they grow the Haverion resource estimate, possible takeover target. I sold most of mine in the high 20s, just bought back in at 18.6
Alphamin (AFM.V) Tin shortage is going nowhere. AFM are the largest producer outside SE Asia, with 4% of global supply. I'm in with a big chunk at 0.58 for the long term. I'm also invested in Cornish Metals, further exploratory drilling commencing at the United Downs project in April.
Tin overview article, ignore Afritin (bag of shit imo): https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/industrial-metals/602859/take-a-look-at-tin-a-crucial-metal-set-to-soar?amp&__twitter_impression=true
Centuras Metals (CTM.ASX) Due to release a scoping study next week for their Jaguar Nickel resource. It's expected to be very good news. Good rundown of the Nickel market's prospects from the growth of EVs here:
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/06/20200602-roskill.html
Info on CTM's Jaguar project: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ctm-huge-nickel-play-unfolding.5388271/
Also invested here for the long term.
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To follow up on the Tin squeeze narrative that I've been going on about since this thread started, this is worth reading and digesting: https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3980892/How-the-London-tin-market-sleepwalked-into-a-once-in-a-lifetime-spread-squeeze-%5bCORRECTED%5d.html
There are only two tin producers worth investing in - Alphamin and MetalsX. AFM the better play but worth spreading jurisdiction risk between Africa (DRC) and Australia.
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Good straight-talking piece in the Independent about the environmental impact due to the energy consumption required by Bitcoin.
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/opinion/bitcoin-mining-environment-climate-change-b1822426.html
The combined energy requirement of all machines in Bitcoin’s network is already estimated to match the electrical energy consumption of a country like Finland, and may soon be on par with the electrical energy requirement of all data centres globally (corresponding to 1 per cent of global electricity consumption). Historically, a big chunk of this energy has been obtained from regions like Xinjiang, China, as miners also search out the cheapest sources of energy. With Xinjiang’s abundance of coal fuelling Bitcoin, the network’s carbon footprint will soon match London’s.
Also a nod to the global tin shortage I mentioned above.. the shortage isn't chips, it's partly due to the shortage of tin required to solder the chips.
Currently, a global shortage of computer chips is the only thing preventing this from happening already. Semiconductor manufacturers Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) are the only companies capable of mass-producing the specific chips Bitcoin mining device manufacturers like Bitmain need, and these companies are already facing significant challenges in meeting chip demand, in addition to the pressure from Bitcoin miners.
The auto industry has been hit hard by the shortage too, as millions of cars simply cannot be finished without the required computer chips. But the fallout of the shortage isn’t limited to the auto industry, as also personal electronic devices like phones and gaming consoles, also suffering in this chip crunch. New electronic devices are becoming unobtainable or severely overpriced.
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One of the reasons I was always more interested in the potential of Ethereum - proof of stake. Much more energy efficient.
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Nothing here on this!?
https://twitter.com/aliceemross/status/1376542928705835014?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1376542928705835014%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fbusiness%2Flive%2F2021%2Fmar%2F30%2Fmarkets-fallout-archegos-hedge-fund-margin-calls-ftse-dow-eurozone-inflation-business-live
Multi-billion loses for many major banks....with regulation like 2008 never happened.
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Why would there be? This thread is more about insights into what everyday people can invest in to hopefully grow their wealth.
The cycle of boom/bust is endless, and caused by greed. If you think there'll ever be a time when regulations prevent incredibly wealthy people from taking increasingly higher risk with other people's leverage to become slightly more wealthy then you're naïve.
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Good straight-talking piece in the Independent about the environmental impact due to the energy consumption required by Bitcoin.
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/opinion/bitcoin-mining-environment-climate-change-b1822426.html
I disagree that it's a good article. Bitcoin mining is extremely wasteful and other cryptocurrencies will surpass bitcoin in the long term in part due to being less wasteful*. There is a valid point there that Bitcoin needs to adapt to be less damaging if it is to succeed but without a like-for-like comparison with the alternatives, the article is no more than the usual hyperbolic rantings that you expect from de Vries. Comparing Bitcoin to the traditional banking, payments and financial services sector or gold mining and custody would be far more useful than irrelevant comparisons to cities/countries/data centres etc.
For governmental regulation to reduce the environmental damage from Bitcoin will depend almost entirely on China as 70% of the hash rate comes from China due to their cheap energy. China isn't likely to disincentivise a technology that is transferring financial power from the West to China.
* The more important factor is that bitcoin can only function as a store of value, it cannot function as a currency and it lacks the additional utilities of other cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's raison d'être is that it is decentralised and secure. In order to achieve high volumes of fast, cheap transactions, it relies on the lightning network which is neither decentralised nor secure. Unless that changes, it will never be useful as a currency.
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I think you've misunderstood, I'm not 'pro' or 'con' bitcoin - I don't have any strong opinion on it. I only use btc as a short-term trade based on TA. Last time I traded it I made 170% in 3 weeks then got out again. I'm currently back in at $55k, awaiting the next spike up and will get out again with profits. I'm not interested in BTC for its long-term utility or lack of.
I just posted the article for info, as it highlights the energy cost of btc in simple to understand terms. As Fultonius points out there are also less energy-intensive alternatives if you want to take a punt on crypto. Long term, I won't be surprised to see a concerted global effort to impose some kind of governmental control on btc transactions, using the energy-cost angle amongst other methods. Perhaps a push to incentivise green mining by sanctioning. I did notice something this morning* from Argo Blockchain about a push for greener mining of btc, but as you say as long as the dirty energy option is cheaper the financial incentive will have negative consequences.
Also, reminds me of the hypocrisy of Elon Musk and Tesla - marketing its green credentials while it makes most of its turnover (way more than from selling electric vehicles) by selling its US carbon credits to polluting companies, and by investing billions in dirty-energy intensive bitcoin!
*edit, here it is: https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/argo-blockchain-jumps-on-green-crypto-mining-pool-launch
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Think we will see $100k this time Pete?
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I think we're in general agreement Pete, except I don't think it does highlight the energy cost in useful or simple to understand terms.
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Think we will see $100k this time Pete?
$85k the area being predicted by various chartists who’ve proved reliable in the past. I’ll be selling if it hits $78k.
$100k also being seriously predicted, it’s the obvious psychological target.. wouldn’t be surprised to see it run up to and above before a whopping fall.
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I'm not interested in BTC for its long-term utility or lack of.
Who the hell is?! Bitcoin is about gambling in the hope of getting rich, nothing more, anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves in my opinion.
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Quite. Although there are so many traders pumping it that, as a gamble, it’s a pretty easy one to make money from providing you follow some simple self-imposed rules - such as buying the large dips and not FOMO chasing a rising price.
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Why would there be? This thread is more about insights into what everyday people can invest in to hopefully grow their wealth.
The cycle of boom/bust is endless, and caused by greed. If you think there'll ever be a time when regulations prevent incredibly wealthy people from taking increasingly higher risk with other people's leverage to become slightly more wealthy then you're naïve.
Maybe because everyday people can easily get caught up in the waves created by such huge regulatory failures, given the interconnectivity of the markets. Maybe also those pedalling such concerns as pointless are the naive ones.
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Why would there be? This thread is more about insights into what everyday people can invest in to hopefully grow their wealth.
Except that what happened on Friday is still unfolding and could have been (and maybe still is as the dust isn’t yet settled) a Lehman’s type event that leads to all sorts of contagion issues impacting the markets, investments and so on.
It’s an interesting story nevertheless.
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Why would there be? This thread is more about insights into what everyday people can invest in to hopefully grow their wealth.
The cycle of boom/bust is endless, and caused by greed. If you think there'll ever be a time when regulations prevent incredibly wealthy people from taking increasingly higher risk with other people's leverage to become slightly more wealthy then you're naïve.
Maybe because everyday people can easily get caught up in the waves created by such huge regulatory failures, given the interconnectivity of the markets. Maybe also those pedalling such concerns as pointless are the naive ones.
This should be blatantly evident to anyone who invests. There are very good reasons for only investing what you can afford to lose - because you could lose it!
What exactly is your point? Investing is risky? You don't say. Big forces outside our control can affect us? Thanks for pointing out the obvious.
I'm not saying those concerns are 'pointless', I'm saying if you invest you'd be wise to learn about wider market forces and potential black swans, but you can't do anything to affect those market forces outside our control so you either accept the risks inherent in the market or you stay out and don't take risks. This thread is about investing.
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Maybe because there are so many serious victims of investments gone wrong that it's nothing like blatently evident. Maybe because, like all gambling, many people lose money they cant afford to, and sometimes end up behaving very unethically. If all investment was money people could always afford to lose and was responsibly placed I would have fewer concerns. Most people accept betting sites need better social protections and I think the same applies to speculative investment threads, especially when the large investment players have the dice fixed to benefit them, as this means you need to be very clever and very well informed. The whole idea of a Black Swan is even experts miss them.
A house is an investment that saves you rent costs and you get to live in it. A pension is a comforting thing to have for your old age. Buying things you need outright saves you more expensive payment systems. Using tax free £20,000 annual ISA allowances is wise if you can afford it. Speculative investment is for experts who can dedicate significant time to it and afford the hits. As much as your posts might help some sensible investors (bad luck aside), they might tempt others into trouble.
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There’s so much I think is wrong about that post. I’m not going to bother arguing against most of your points, all that needs saying is this thread is about sharing *ideas for investing in shares*. It would be pretty rubbish for that if it was made up of people pessimistically sucking air through their teeth and discouraging investing in shares.
There are other threads if you’re interested discussing football, painting, *the economy*, covid, bouldering, long and mostly free mountain routes, coffee, TV, training, diet, globalisation and the limits of growth, male toxicity, and even news of significant ascents.
Some of those things carry inherent risks of something bad happening, which could impact your health and happiness.
If you’d like to start a new thread you’re free to - you could call it ‘Don’t Lose Your Shirt.. Offwidth’s Anti Speculative Investing thread’.
By the way, my most successful investment is in my ISA account - it gave a life-changing tax free gain. ISA’s are a great way for the everyday person to improve their lot.
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As much as your posts might help some sensible investors (bad luck aside), they might tempt others into trouble.
Maybe we shouldn't discuss highballs on other threads then. In case someone falls off and hurts themselves?
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Its not quite the same though because its a climbing forum. The same analogy would be people suggesting the fun of highballs on an investing forum. Social media is full of encouragement to invest in bitcoin and some pretty speculative investments and it is not easy to differentiate between gambling and investing. Personally I'd rather it wasn't on the forum so this is a space where the only risky behaviour encouraged is climbing.
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I think the comparative position for climbing is risk is front and centre and experts overcome that with skill and accidents are surprisingly rare. If climbers ended up with a sudden mass of accidents because of some external factor, or from too regular individual errors, it would be a big worry. In the investment business the black swans are normally just a bump in the road for the big investment banks and carnage for large numbers of smaller investors. Even in more normal times investment gambles lead to many big losses where detailed warnings on risk were buried in small print or missing. The skill in avoiding risk in speculative investment is way more like alpine risk to me ...big rewards but with risk not always avoidable by skill. Then we have the thorny issue of investment ethics.
I've enjoyed this thread but just want to urge a little caution and some consideration of responsible investment. My personal view is as nations we don't learn proper lessons about regulation so as part of a globalised capitalist system are doomed to have a crash that will really hammer our globalised markets. 2008 came very close to that. People get hurt in crashes .... as a simple example pre 2008 those Icelandic banks seemed a fantastic safe bet for investors and now many UK councils are counting the cost.
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All of which can be discussed in threads about the economy, globalisation, and the finite limits of capitalism etc. etc.
There's no justification for hijacking this thread with your concerns about the global economy and the failure of the capitalist system to regulate itself. That's the water we all swim in, we can't alter it. But some of us do enjoy trying to get a little ride on the waves knowing well the risks.
I get that the investment thread jars with the political worldview of many of UKB's users. Again that's no justification for hijacking this thread with your concerns.
Poll is up. Happy to see it locked/logged if it's not what UKB users like to see in their world.
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this thread is about sharing *ideas for investing in shares*
Don't agree with you at all on that Pete; that may have been your original intention in starting the thread, but in my mind this is, and should be, a general discussion thread on all things investing. If you want to post ideas then you're free to do so, but likewise others should be free to say where they think things are too risky, discuss safer methods of investing, investing news, etc. I think that's quite an important thread to have really as it's an important part of practically everyone's lives whether they know it or not. And arguably it isn't covered by any of the other threads.
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:rtfm:
This is a very specific thread for Pete to be bullish about companies that dig stuff out of the ground. Everyone get balls deep in tin - we're going to the moon. Paper hands bitches worrying about risk are killing the buzz.
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Imagine what would happen if someone started a base jumping thread on here... Although I agree with Bradders re this seeming like an ok place for broader discussion of the pros/cons/risks too.
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:rtfm:
This is a very specific thread for Pete to be bullish about companies that dig stuff out of the ground. Everyone get balls deep in tin - we're going to the moon. Paper hands bitches worrying about risk are killing the buzz.
Pleased I have at least one convert. Our Tesla moonbase will need a lot of tin, and gold for the taps.
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Imagine what would happen if someone started a base jumping thread on here... Although I agree with Bradders re this seeming like an ok place for broader discussion of the pros/cons/risks too.
Problem with that is it would just turn into another debate thread, with any useful tips hidden among the show of intellectual masturbation by UKB's academic committee. None of which helps with the simple binary process of buying or selling based on research and price.
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Ok, maybe we could have this and then a "general" investing/economics thread. I don't really mind that much either way.
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I think a general thread has more to offer, anything else is just guessing and then at random intervals being right or wrong.
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Imagine what would happen if someone started a base jumping thread on here... Although I agree with Bradders re this seeming like an ok place for broader discussion of the pros/cons/risks too.
Problem with that is it would just turn into another debate thread, with any useful tips hidden among the show of intellectual masturbation by UKB's academic committee. None of which helps with the simple binary process of buying or selling based on research and price.
Market trends form an essential part of the research process and effect price.
As suggested.. For people to share info, ideas and experiences from the investing world.
I think it can all fit in one thread: individual stock picking ideas and research, passive funds, managed funds, commodities, bonds, forex, futures, crypto, long term investing, short term trading, fundamentals, TA, investment platforms, ISAs, pensions, micro trends, macro trends, taxation, regulatory changes and monetary policy, major events that impact markets etc etc.
It seems reasonable for some discussion of risk strategy to fit in with that. I think that can all fit in one thread but I'm OK with it splitting in to 2+ separate threads.
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Including macro-risk based posts is sometimes useful, but not if they are generalised "investing is risky," "the world is over leveraged," "derivatives will wipe out everything" type stuff. Unless you can spot something coming over the horizon before anyone else panics (i.e. Covid, or being one of the handful of people that realised that mortgage bonds were mis-rated in 2005/6) timing markets is pretty much impossible and the accepted thinking is that you will lose money trying to do so. Any one-off cataclysmic systemic failure would probably wipe out cash savings/pensions and other asset prices just as much as equities. Pointing out risks in specific stocks or groups of stocks is more useful though.
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:agree: 100%.
IMO this thread will be most useful - for the small number of people actually interested in acting - by offering pointers to specific shares and research ideas regarding specific companies and sectors.
Regarding discussing bonds, funds and pensions. Fair enough, but all I'd say is get a free subscription to the Telegraph or FT for a month and read their articles and comments. You'll learn more about those there than this thread will likely offer.
Managed funds are a good way to spend your money paying someone else to underperform the market.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/funds/post-pandemic-portfolio-ultimate-investments-250k-pot/
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I get that the investment thread jars with the political worldview of many of UKB's users.
Not at all in my case. I'm not interested so I don't read or post to it, but I don't mind one bit that it exists. Why should I? it doesn't impact me at all either way.
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I get that the investment thread jars with the political worldview of many of UKB's users.
Not at all in my case. I'm not interested so I don't read or post to it, but I don't mind one bit that it exists. Why should I? it doesn't impact me at all either way.
Me neither. What does make me bristle - is when I'm told what I can and cant post about... which is something I expect you also feel Pete.
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Not at all in my case. I'm not interested so I don't read or post to it, but I don't mind one bit that it exists. Why should I? it doesn't impact me at all either way.
:agree:
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Me neither. What does make me bristle - is when I'm told what I can and cant post about... which is something I expect you also feel Pete.
Absolutely. But try to keep posts relevant to threads please. I don't post on many of the other threads despite often having an interest in the topic, mostly because I feel I haven't much new to offer, or I'm too busy for aimless idle chat. I gave up posting on many of the politics-based threads because they're largely an echo chamber that I have no interest in getting involved with.
Threads work best (imo) by the people posting being those who are active and enthusiastic about the subject. This thread would work best (imo) by those posting being those who actively partake in trading and investing or who want to. I don't imagine that's so many people.
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Wot Ru said.
We could probably have a bot post a “we’re all doomed, doomed I tell ya’” as every 16th post? Save anyone else having to do it...
Personally my preference would be two threads, one a broader discussion of the stock market/investing and this one as a fairly pure investment ideas/rationales thread. But I guess there is inevitable crossover of the two to an extent, and as I haven’t started the suggested other thread I guess the reality is I’m not that fussed if it’s one or two threads...
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:agree: 100%.
IMO this thread will be most useful - for the small number of people actually interested in acting - by offering pointers to specific shares and research ideas regarding specific companies and sectors.
Regarding discussing bonds, funds and pensions. Fair enough, but all I'd say is get a free subscription to the Telegraph or FT for a month and read their articles and comments. You'll learn more about those there than this thread will likely offer.
Managed funds are a good way to spend your money paying someone else to underperform the market.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/funds/post-pandemic-portfolio-ultimate-investments-250k-pot/
Fair points.
I would hope anyone was doing at least this much of their own research before acting on anything from this thread.
I think a little bit of discussion in here on those topics from the more experienced people can be useful for nudging people in the right direction for somewhere to start that research.
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intellectual masturbation by UKB's academic committee.
Where do I sign up?
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intellectual masturbation by UKB's academic committee.
Where do I sign up?
It’s taking the bike courier carrying the artisanal vellum invitation longer than expected to get to Copenhagen.
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intellectual masturbation by UKB's academic committee.
Where do I sign up?
Do you not get the memo, you're the chairperson :lol: (chairperson being the best place to be...)
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you're the chairperson
I'd assumed that was a given.
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It doesn't matter that investment usually leads to an average profit and old-fashioned gambling the opposite. The issue is people don't always judge risk very well and display addictive behaviours and when that is combined with the markets being gamed by the big players, under faulty regulation, the investment losers are not going away any time soon. Investment is just a form of gambling with better average odds.
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It doesn't matter that investment usually leads to an average profit and old-fashioned gambling the opposite. The issue is people don't always judge risk very well and display addictive behaviours and when that is combined with the markets being gamed by the big players, under faulty regulation, the investment losers are not going away any time soon. Investment is just a form of gambling with better average odds.
A lot of people enjoy gambling. In fact, the vast majority of gamblers are not in an unhealthy relationship with risk. Some are.
The vast majority of drivers, are reasonable and (roughly) follow the law and are relatively safe. Some drivers are total wankers.
Some people exhibit unhealthy or addictive behaviours and will find an outlet for that tendency. Should everything that carries risk be banned to protect those people from themselves?
PS:
Much of your “high risk, poorly regulated” description applies very aptly to most forms of climbing, outside.
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Then simply don’t get involved in this thread Offwidth, it’s for investors. The people posting here don’t need you to save them.
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It doesn't matter that investment usually leads to an average profit and old-fashioned gambling the opposite. The issue is people don't always judge risk very well and display addictive behaviours and when that is combined with the markets being gamed by the big players, under faulty regulation, the investment losers are not going away any time soon. Investment is just a form of gambling with better average odds.
I don't agree with you at all on that, and I'm starting to see why Pete wanted to restrict the topic of conversation in this thread. I think you're confusing investing with the victims of investment based scams; describing people who've made a paper or actual loss on an investment, where it might appear at that point in time to have "gone wrong", as "victims" is nonsensical.
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It doesn't matter that investment usually leads to an average profit and old-fashioned gambling the opposite. The issue is people don't always judge risk very well and display addictive behaviours and when that is combined with the markets being gamed by the big players, under faulty regulation, the investment losers are not going away any time soon. Investment is just a form of gambling with better average odds.
The difficulty I have with this, is that some sort investment with your money is probably going on whether you want it to or not, if you have any savings or a pension. What changes is how much of the reward/risk you walk away with vs someone else. If you have a pension invested on your behalf, someone is creaming off a large chunk of your money for the effort of investing, probably in a mundane way that's easy to replicate for yourself, without paying fees. If you hold cash with fixed income, someone is using that money, making a profit and paying you the least they can get away with. Cash loses money vs inflation. There are other options - paying down a mortgage is well worthwhile and I'd certainly recommend that as a priority for most people with spare cash.
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Maybe because there are so many serious victims of investments gone wrong that it's nothing like blatently evident. Maybe because, like all gambling, many people lose money they cant afford to, and sometimes end up behaving very unethically. If all investment was money people could always afford to lose and was responsibly placed I would have fewer concerns. Mo
This is all clearly true, until it isn’t, right? Surely if the value of an asset becomes decoupled from its underlying worth (however one might assess that), then buying and selling that asset becomes more like gambling and less like investing.
Discussing this sort of thing seems to me exactly what an investment thread should include. Alongside the tin mining tips, of course.
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Kahneman is pretty well known for declaring that picking stocks is as much like rolling a dice than playing poker, I've not seen enough evidence that individuals can outperform consistently through time. I'm sure he also produced a paper that's cited in one of his books that showed the extremely low correlation of an investors performance year on year, suggesting that bonuses are paid primarily for luck not skill. Happy to be corrected.
This is of course different to having a diversified portfolio of shares and achieving an outcome similar to that of the market, which is obviously more sensible than just storing cash in a current account - but we aren't all so fortunate (me included) to have enough spare cash to be able to lock a substantial amount of it away in assets
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Some good posts. I thought I agreed with what habrich said but I also agree with Sean disagreeing! To my naive leftie mindset investing is where the expected gain is through the company increasing in value/profitability. This is of course good and its companies like this I think Pete wants to highlight. Gambling is where the expected gain comes from getting other peoples money. I may well be wrong and crypto is new assests rising up to their natural value where nearly everyone is a winner but I personally think the crypo gains will come from others losing and it is in effect a giant pyramid scheme. Why not just keep the investing thread for traditional investment recommendations and have a seperate crypto thread if people are interested in this?
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There are always winners and losers, at risk of stating the obvious, for you to be able to buy something someone has to be willing to sell it - you obviously both have different expectations regarding the value of the underlying. Assets with a large amount of trading volume and volatility are often such because people disagree more widely about the expectations of future value.
While stocks will increase in value with economic growth/population/increase in the value of the underlying etc. - these things aren't static and the fundemental question everyone else asks is whether something is under or over priced at its current valuation, and that to a large extent is a guess because there is no empirical means by which to fully evaluate a firms fundemental value in pounds and pence
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Kahneman is pretty well known for declaring that picking stocks is as much like rolling a dice than playing poker, I've not seen enough evidence that individuals can outperform consistently through time.
At the risk of going off on another tangent, poker is a very efficient game in the medium to long term for transferring money from lower skilled players to higher skilled players.
Perhaps it was a better example than he realised.
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In the spirit of contributing something useful to the discussion in terms of practical guidance - the most robust strategy observed in the literature is some sort of momentum strategy. Don't know what habrich thinks of this, but 6 months prior returns fairly well predicts the next 6 month returns positively. I presume there is a lower limit of stocks to be held to escape the n=1 problem but this has been tested more thoroughly than I think any other strategy and is certainly regarded as one of the most pervasive asset pricing anomalies alongside post-earnings announcement drift.
The original paper is here: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2328882?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents (happy to forward the pdf to anyone who's keen). Don't be put off by its age - its one of the most well-cited papers in finance, and is the kind of paper asset pricing firms employ researchers for to emulate these strategies.
If I were to ever put this together, I'd do this
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At the risk of going off on another tangent, poker is a very efficient game in the medium to long term for transferring money from lower skilled players to higher skilled players.
Perhaps it was a better example than he realised.
As an aside, did anyone ever meet the climber and professional poker player John Rosholt on trips to the US?
https://rockandice.com/people/john-rosholt-climber-and-gambler-disappears-in-las-vegas/
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The difficulty I have with this, is that some sort investment with your money is probably going on whether you want it to or not, if you have any savings or a pension. What changes is how much of the reward/risk you walk away with vs someone else. If you have a pension invested on your behalf, someone is creaming off a large chunk of your money for the effort of investing, probably in a mundane way that's easy to replicate for yourself, without paying fees. If you hold cash with fixed income, someone is using that money, making a profit and paying you the least they can get away with. Cash loses money vs inflation. There are other options - paying down a mortgage is well worthwhile and I'd certainly recommend that as a priority for most people with spare cash.
Sure savings, pensions and home owning are just lower risk gambling. Loses can occasionally be large... think failed banks, pension scandals, and the current cladding related disaster in many thousands of UK leasehold flats.
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Sure savings, pensions and home owning are just lower risk gambling. Loses can occasionally be large... think failed banks, pension scandals, and the current cladding related disaster in many thousands of UK leasehold flats.
So...what?
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So...what?
Because if the risks are not clear from whoever is selling the financial product it's an issue of misselling. Looking back I was missold my first endowment mortgage (by someone who was incentivised by a sales bonus) but I was lucky and made a profit, too many others found their endowment didn't cover the basic house purchase.
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I may well be wrong and crypto is new assests rising up to their natural value where nearly everyone is a winner but I personally think the crypo gains will come from others losing and it is in effect a giant pyramid scheme
I think this is a fundamental misunderstanding. To understand cryptos you first need to understand fiat money; and understand that fiat is a fairly recent experiment, and that of the two cryptos have a more secure footing in reality; it is a 'harder' form of money. One of the original motivations for cryptos was to protect your money from the inflation caused by governments printing fiat currency. The more governments print money the more people will seek alternatives that provide a more secure store of value. So money flowing to cryptos may increase inflation in fiat, but that is driven by governments printing money. It is no way a pyramid scheme.
As cryptos become more mainstream I won't be surprised if that feedback loop accelerates to the extent that some fiat currencies become unviable.
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It may well have been set up with the best intentions and may theoretically be a great idea. But do you really think people are buying crypto now to protect against inflation from the printing of money. I think its a classic bubble and people are buying simply because they think its going to go up loads in value. Anyway as I said I may well be wrong and so best of luck to crypo owners. I suspect it will come down to whether it gets too big to fail before people realise the downsides. I can see why people take the gamble!
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So...what?
Because if the risks are not clear from whoever is selling the financial product it's an issue of misselling. Looking back I was missold my first endowment mortgage (by someone who was incentivised by a sales bonus) but I was lucky and made a profit, too many others found their endowment didn't cover the basic house purchase.
But the risks are never clear, even when not miss sold. The only risks you get to be informed about is that there is a risk of you losing money if the market turns against you. If you’re lucky you might get a choice between products that are ‘more risky’ and ‘less risky,’ but that’s essentially meaningless. The only difference is that someone else chooses the risk on your behalf and takes a cut of your money for doing so.
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Then simply don’t get involved in this thread Offwidth, it’s for investors. The people posting here don’t need you to save them.
Or stop reading Offwidths posts Pete :p
I don't really think much of this thread (as in not bothered) - but I do dislike the way you are attempting to police it as seemingly your fiefdom.
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But do you really think people are buying crypto now to protect against inflation from the printing of money. I think its a classic bubble and people are buying simply because they think its going to go up loads in value. Anyway as I said I may well be wrong and so best of luck to crypo owners. I suspect it will come down to whether it gets too big to fail before people realise the downsides. I can see why people take the gamble!
Right now we're late in a bull market and yes some are likely to lose value in the short to medium term. But bubbles are a function of the market and human nature, they don't necessarily mean the thing is a bad investment long term - look at the dotcom bubble.
And yes, plenty of people are in crypto as a hedge against money printing.
We're getting into the second stage of cryptos now where lots of projects have real utility, whereas the bubble/ bull-run a few of years back was mainly based on just excitement about potential. Make no mistake cryptos, like the Internet, will be a part of our future whether you choose engage with them or not.
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I do get the hedge argument put forward by bitcoin fans. I just dont think thats why 99% of people are buying bitcoin. Its also far from proven that it does act as an effective hedge. Its also not the same as the dotcom bubble and thats just a comparison of apples and pears. As I am sure you also know not all historical bubbles have ended as well as the dotcom one. Anyway your probably right that its not going anywhere for a long time and may well prove a good gamble.
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But the risks are never clear, even when not miss sold. The only risks you get to be informed about is that there is a risk of you losing money if the market turns against you. If you’re lucky you might get a choice between products that are ‘more risky’ and ‘less risky,’ but that’s essentially meaningless. The only difference is that someone else chooses the risk on your behalf and takes a cut of your money for doing so.
I just think most of the bigger known risks should be clearer (knowing some will always be unknown). That person pushing my endowment mortgage wasn't independent and wasn't entirely honest and his bonus took a lot out of the pot to grow. I was lucky mine matured with profit, many did not. I feel similarly for the lease owners stuck in the cladding trap... someone was very dishonest to them, but it's the lease owners who are stuck with the bill and in some cases heading for bankruptcy. There are so many cases more deserving of help than the foolish who purchased useless PPI.
The aftermath of the 2008 crash shocked me as it left the entire system teetering on the edge of collapse. That such a thing can happen in such a way is just insane. I knew regulation was lax but had no idea just how bad it really was. Despite the criminal horror show of triple A rated junk and investment banks hedging against their own recommended known junk products almost no-one was jailed. The end of The Big Short was telling in that the bad habits had already started to return.
Maybe there is a project for someone on Wikipedia (or similar) as it's pretty slim and disconnected pickings there at present when trying to research the many interesting ways people got ripped off in investments and the scale of damage from the less common Black Swan effects.
Anyhow I've done what I wanted for now, so let the enthusiastic punter investment craic continue.
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I do get the hedge argument put forward by bitcoin fans. I just dont think thats why 99% of people are buying bitcoin. Its also far from proven that it does act as an effective hedge. Its also not the same as the dotcom bubble and thats just a comparison of apples and pears. As I am sure you also know not all historical bubbles have ended as well as the dotcom one. Anyway your probably right that its not going anywhere for a long time and may well prove a good gamble.
It would be interesting to know what percentage of bitcoin your supposed 99% of people own. I would not be surprised if it conforms to something like the 80:20 rule and 80% is owned by 20%; quite likely much less. I don't think large numbers of people owning small amounts is that important compared to what and why the whales are up to.
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At the risk of going off on another tangent, poker is a very efficient game in the medium to long term for transferring money from lower skilled players to higher skilled players.
Perhaps it was a better example than he realised.
As an aside, did anyone ever meet the climber and professional poker player John Rosholt on trips to the US?
https://rockandice.com/people/john-rosholt-climber-and-gambler-disappears-in-las-vegas/
Me: “pleased to meet you John, what have you been up to in Vancouver?”
John: “playing poker, it’s my profession”.
We did some cool routes together in Squamish, including The Northern Lights and a new 3-pitch variation on Freeway, which we named ‘Big Slick’.
He was a really nice guy and very solid on cracks. RIP.
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Ive not really given it that much thought JB. My point was that pretty much every buyers primary motivation was it going up in value - lots! My 99% of people could be big or small investors. I suspect your about right with the 80 20 thing.
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Ive not really given it that much thought JB.
Yeah that's apparent... ;-) Suggest taking some time to read this (https://breedlove22.medium.com/money-bitcoin-and-time-part-1-of-3-b4f6bb036c04), you can't understand cryptos without first understanding money.
My point was that pretty much every buyers primary motivation was it going up in value
Umm. Is there another reason for investing in anything? Again, you're presumably talking about the people you know who own some but don't seem to understand it. I don't think people like them own a significant percentage of the total. Whereas Visa supporting it is something to take heed of - if it was 'just a bubble' that wouldn't have happened and the bubble would have popped after the first bull run. I wouldn't buy bitcoin right now as a drop is likely medium term but equally I'm pretty confident if you did you'd be back in profit within a couple of years.
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Thanks for the link JB. My job is basically valuing things and I had to study economics as part of my masters so think I have a pretty good understanding of what money is. Anyway when you put money on a horse or you buy some shares you do so thinking you have made a decision that will get you more money back than you put in. But they are not both investing. I am sure you agree that buying some obscure crypto would not be investing. You think bitcoin is here to stay so it is investing. As I said you may well be right but I think its still far from certain. I'll leave it at that so the thread can go back to Pete recommmending some more obscure mining companies!
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My point was that pretty much every buyers primary motivation was it going up in value
Umm. Is there another reason for investing in anything?
Sure, probably no-one invests in the hope of losing money, but people invest for a wide variety of reasons: most obviously, you might really believe in a company, it's products/services, or what they are trying to do and want to be part of helping them raise the finance they need; historically a lot of investing was rooted in local solidarities; investments can create interlocks between firms or between families or friends; investments can be used for non-economic reasons, such as cementing political or social alliances; investments can even be sentimental.
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Yeah that's apparent... ;-) Suggest taking some time to read this (https://breedlove22.medium.com/money-bitcoin-and-time-part-1-of-3-b4f6bb036c04), you can't understand cryptos without first understanding money.
This is not the first time you’ve posted this, so whatever I say is directed at other readers on this thread, but this is basically bronomics. It’s all just a lot of half-remembered and somewhat garbled basic econ with kooky diagrams replacing the typical set of graphs you’d usually use to explain some relationships... at least that was half the first page, it may get better but life is short. My main gripe is that he sees everything through a monetary lens (give a man a hammer...) which leads to a lot of nonsense.
However it is clearly very good at selling the idea of Bitcoin to people so top marks to him as he runs some kind of Bitcoin consultancy. He is also a bit hunky and lives in Santa Monica, I’m sure that doesn’t hinder him.
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Andy, yes of course but he did write primary motivation. As you said probably no one hopes to lose money.
I am sure you agree that buying some obscure crypto would not be investing
Bizarre comment, I couldn't agree less. Why would buying an obscure crypto not be investing? Are you assuming the buyer won't research it or believe it has potential to have a future as a useful product? Everything you've said applies equally to an uninformed person buying stocks, except you seem to have assumed cryptos have no prospect of utility.
It is already apparent, if you take the time to look, that blockchains will be an important technology for the next twenty years at least. Which of them will succed is of course far less certain; we know the market has a track record of not always picking the best tech. This is why Elon is always joking about Doge.
Sean, I don't claim to have any of your expertise so always take your opinions seriously. I'm sure the first half page was beneath you, and I don't who care he is or what he looks like, but I'd be interested in why, specifically, the question of hardness of gold/ money/ bitcoin which seems pretty compelling, particularly given what has happened since it was written?
Anyway this and other stuff could be better split into another thread where it can die quietly.
Back on topic, if anyone is interested I have a friend who is a developer at (iirc) rchain. He often sends me recommendation of other 'obscure cryptos' which impress him. Being a real geek this is often based in the elegance of the maths and dev team as much as the potential utility, but I'd be happy to repost some of his thoughts.
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Adam ive absolutely no problem with you disagreeing with me. Although the critique of my comments and the assumption that im wrong because I dont understand is really tiresome. Anyway hopefully the thread can be split so this can go and die somewhere. Please Simon!
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Andy, yes of course but he did write primary motivation. As you said probably no one hopes to lose money.
I genuinely missed the "primary," though profit's probably quite often not even the primary motivation.
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My apologies if I came across as dismissive, shouldn’t post before lunch. But what I find frustrating about such posts as the Breedlove one is that they are unnecessary. Economics (and I assume finance) is a pretty standardised field, and thanks to its ubiquity in the US education system there are tons of great, free resources out there that cover the subject at every level from
GCSE to graduate school. And none of them are fluffing the product they are trying to sell.
Much of what that blog post discusses doesn’t actually require a theory of money. One can think about growth, time preferences, etc purely in real terms, ie looking at the relationship of prices without considering the effects of inflation at all. Obviously if you take a theory to the data then you would have your method of making those prices comparable humming away in the background, but even then you’re looking at the real economy (consumer products, for example) rather than the financial one.
That’s not to say that monetary issues don’t affect growth, business cycles, etc. Of course they do, and it’s very important. But one can explore fundamental ideas about those things without recourse to money. (And Pete might have a point, this thread should have more discussion of Australian tin mines than the Phillips curve.)
Anyhow, here are two divergent views of Bitcoin, one from Bloomberg writer Noah Smith, the other from economist Nouriel Roubini. I lean more to the later than the former, but I found Smith’s argument worth reading. Your position will probably be the exact opposite!
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/triumph-of-the-hodlers
https://www.ft.com/content/9be5ad05-b17a-4449-807b-5dbcb5ef8170
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Adam ive absolutely no problem with you disagreeing with me. Although the critique of my comments and the assumption that im wrong because I dont understand is really tiresome. Anyway hopefully the thread can be split so this can go and die somewhere. Please Simon!
No no, please continue with spunking the intellectual masturbation all over the thread, it's *fascinating* to hear about economic theories, and hear people's opinions of bitcoin. :yawn:
Thanks also to Offwidth for his sermon on risk, and how people are too reckless to be trusted with making decisions about making their own money work for them, and too stupid and uninformed to understand the markets with their nasty-wasty big boy players. We're blessed.
Please carry on with the theorising too, I'm on the edge of my seat looking forward to Sean's next post about economic theories. Because economists are well-known for their *great* track record of prediction and for being the go-to people for the micro-level research into the minutiae of companies and hot sectors, that individual investors need to do to pick apart the bones and spot good opportunities slightly ahead of the herd, which will hopefully grow our portfolios over time.
Do carry on.
(btw just in case anyone's interested in actual ideas for long-term investments based on fundamental research, this week Filo Mining released their latest round of drilling result for the 100% owned Filo de Sol copper/gold project on the Argentina/Chile border. It looks likely to grow into being a Tier 1 copper/gold asset within the next 5 years - which is a very big deal. Look up 'Lassonde' 'Nirvanna' 'Copper'. If you want a high probability 2-5 year play on the copper/gold market you won't find many better ones. The project value based on likely tonnage/grade to be in the region of a minimum 5 and up to 10 times Filo's current market cap. Do a discounted cash flow model for future revenue and you still have a very tasty growth potential. Local infrastructure being built by neighbouring mine = low upfront capex. Watch Filo ride up the 'exploration' part of the Lassonde curve. I just dropped a large chunk in at $2.98 on Wednesday in anticipation, the day before results hit.)
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Maybe the title needs changing to “UKB users’ list of stock picks”. No debate. No conversation.
I was just joking when I suggested this, but it genuinely seems like this is what you’re after Pete.
And given that you’ve posted roughly 95% of those tips and want to police any other contributions, maybe a blog would be a better medium so you can vet comments before they’re made public? Just sayin’ ;)
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Don't forget the sanctimonious ethics Pete
https://www.dw.com/en/mining-projects-foment-unrest-across-latin-america/a-50443084
On risk I just don't get why your latest sure thing isn't already priced in on that share price unless you have insider information. How do you research something many others can't. I know clever people who gave up ordinary work and trade successfully for a living ....they would never promote stuff the way you do and they sweat the risk a bit as with leverage and very bad luck it could be their home on the line.
History has shown the big players can and do play dirty but their main advantage is much more mundane they can have nano second options running constantly to maximise gain and subsequent super fast escape routes on any sudden downturn.
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Maybe the title needs changing to “UKB users’ list of stock picks”. No debate. No conversation.
I was just joking when I suggested this, but it genuinely seems like this is what you’re after Pete.
And given that you’ve posted roughly 95% of those tips and want to police any other contributions, maybe a blog would be a better medium so you can vet comments before they’re made public? Just sayin’ ;)
Personally I much prefer Pete's stock tips to the other stuff that's followed. There's plenty of hand-wringing about the pros and cons of investing elsewhere.
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I'm genuinely interested in Pete's tips as well (vicariously as I could never devote that much effort into just trying to make money) but it's important to know the solidity of the risk research for public recommendations and that includes the company ethics (ie a mining concern he is recommending is nothing like the many scum mining companies despoiling the local environment via local corruption). Who knows, he might have this information. What's in the small print?
I'm certainly not the SJW he accused me of, I'm just an inquisitive middle class UK social liberal who doesn't need to worry about money and made all my own through a professional vocation and fairly conservative, hands-off investment of anything spare.
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Personally I much prefer Pete's stock tips to the other stuff that's followed. There's plenty of hand-wringing about the pros and cons of investing elsewhere
I guess my concern is that if Pete wants to post stock tips but also to dictate what (if any) discussion there can be about those tips or investments generally, then it’s basically just a list of his hot tips, with any talk about risk relegated to ‘background reading’ on other threads or websites (or the disclaimer at the very start of the thread). Which is all fine, but given the frequency that the tips come this thread will end up becoming almost a sticky thread at the top of the recent posts list. I’m not sure how healthy that is on a general climbing forum.
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My apologies if I came across as dismissive, shouldn’t post before lunch. But what I find frustrating about such posts as the Breedlove one is that they are unnecessary. Economics (and I assume finance) is a pretty standardised field...
Anyhow, here are two divergent views of Bitcoin, one from Bloomberg writer Noah Smith, the other from economist Nouriel Roubini. I lean more to the later than the former, but I found Smith’s argument worth reading. Your position will probably be the exact opposite!
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/triumph-of-the-hodlers
https://www.ft.com/content/9be5ad05-b17a-4449-807b-5dbcb5ef8170
Appreciate the more considered reply, thanks.
Yeah the Noah one seems reasonable, but I'm afraid for Roubini I've already read my 2 free FT articles this month. Googling the title brings up some stuff hacked together from pull-quotes, mostly well-known issues (bitcoin is power-hungry and transactions are painfully slow) that could be assumed to apply to cryptos more generally, but actually don't. I don't share the likes of Breedlove's faith that Bitcoin will persevere - yes, in theory it's open-source, editable nature should allow it to maintain that first-mover advantage, but I think it's more likely the above problems plus 'don't mess with the winning formula' inertia will see it suddenly overtaken. And I'm not that interested in the digital gold aspect of cryptos either, although it's worth noting that while it may have limited advantages in a liberal democracy with a stable currency, it is more compelling in the context that less than 20% of the world live under such conditions, whereas worldwide smartphone ownership is nearly 50% and rising fast.
I'm more interested in the application of Blockchain technology to provide specific services - like solar panels trading with the grid (https://solarmagazine.com/decentralising-solar-with-blockchain-improve-competitiveness-of-solar/). There may well be a big shakedown in cryptos but I cannot seeing blockchains disappearing. The tech may well end up just subsumed into a lower layer of the financial system but I think some tokens will have sufficiently broad application to accrue some intrinsic value.
I shared the Breedlove article because the usual question I've had on bitcoin is just 'yeah but I don't see how can it be money?' from folk who have never stopped to think why they accept £notes as money. I've not seen a similarly accessible overview that would answer that basic question. But that the only response being a critique from an economist is exactly why UKB is great.
Adam ive absolutely no problem with you disagreeing with me. Although the critique of my comments and the assumption that im wrong because I dont understand is really tiresome.
Sorry, I was a bit flippant initially because I'd assumed you were someone else. But your argument has hardly got beyond the level of arm-waving dismissal (which could be interpreted as equally patronising). Maybe you are right though, it depends on your definition of investment I suppose. I'd agree much is at the speculative end, just not equivalent to betting on horses. The barriers to entry of just buying anything but the most mainstream cryptos would seem to put off dabblers.
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On risk I just don't get why your latest sure thing isn't already priced in on that share price unless you have insider information. How do you research something many others can't. I know clever people who gave up ordinary work and trade successfully for a living ....they would never promote stuff the way you do and they sweat the risk a bit as with leverage and very bad luck it could be their home on the line.
History has shown the big players can and do play dirty but their main advantage is much more mundane they can have nano second options running constantly to maximise gain and subsequent super fast escape routes on any sudden downturn.
If this is really the level of your understanding about the level of research possible for a private investor, yet you insist on posting here with your tone of pessimistic disapproval and moralising, then you're just not worth engaging with. I've no requirement or desire to waste my time explaining how I can carry out proper research, to someone who apparently doesn't want to learn about this topic and who is seemingly unwilling to believe I could possibly know anything about it anyway!
I've really no idea why you're engaging with this thread. If you want to learn something new then read with an open mind - don't make (incorrect) assertions and dress them up as questions. And don't drop in *strawmen like you're trying to engage in a debate, the point of this thread isn't to debate. If have some research to contribute about a possible investment, share it. If you don't like the topic then politely fuck off.
If you have a specific point about the ethics of a specific company, perhaps share it but understand your entire modern way of life is built on questionable ethics - the tin used to glue together the circuit boards in your laptop, desktop, phone etc. will have most likely come from either Mayanmar, Congo, China or Latin America. I mean, you could do something concrete rather than sit moralising away on threads you have no real enthusiasm for - by investing in 'clean' tin via CUSN.. one of the two of us is at least putting our money where our mouth is.
* 'sure thing' = strawman, sure things don't exist and nobody’s suggested them. Sums up your contributions.. why bother to engage with someone wanting to debate and using strawman arguments, in a thread supposedly about the black and white activity of research and choosing to invest or not.
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Cheers Adam. Yes I accept I have used a narrow definition of an investment - I told my other half it was an investment letting me build a wall in the garage. I just agree with Ali k's comments really. There are risks when investing and my primary return on my wall is a fucked shoulder. Pete you are surely better than that last post.
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There are risks when investing and my primary return on my wall is a fucked shoulder
:lol:
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Bit of an update, I'll focus on companies in which I've recently invested.
Greatland Gold (in @1.5 & recently @18.5)
Broke out from it's recent downtrend over the last couple of days, technically looking strong for high 20s/low 30s. I'll be selling some if it hits the high 20s, likely to drop back here from sellers who bought into the last hype-fuelled rise at the high 20s/low 30s, bailing out to break even following the drop. Keeping a core holding for the long term as the deposit is a no-brainer. Short term trade & 2-5 year hold
Alphamin (in @ 0.57)
Released quarterly earnings last week, excellent results and the year ahead looking even better on the back of tin shortage and exploration upside at Mpana south. Very positive, debt free by summer and even talk of a dividend. 2-5 years hold.
Hallgarten broker upgraded their 12-month price target to 0.80 on April 6th. https://alphaminresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Alphamin_April21_Update_2.pdf
Good overview on the investment case here on value investor: https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/ALPHAMIN_RESOURCES_CORP/4744168116
Filo Mining (in @ 2.98 & 3.50)
Got in the day before drill results were reported. Excellent results! Many more assays to report over the coming 6 months. Very happy about the growth prospects of the Filo de la Sol prospect. 6-12 months hold.
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/filo-mining-reports-942m-at-0-67-cueq-extends-the-deposit-1-000m-to-the-north-801298452.html
Meridian Mining ( in @ 0.45)
Got in on the back of xrf results of drill core showing very high grades at their Cabacal project (unusual approach to report xrf grades and a bit frowned upon). Awaiting assays back from the lab to confirm - should be late April/early May, but looking good here to grow into a large VMS project. Pretty excited about this project, which is one of a few win the last couple of years following the narrative of 'old mine that was uneconomic and forgotten about, being re-explored based on today's and future prices of copper/gold'. Good outline here: https://twitter.com/MeridianMining/status/1382773725876080641?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
6-12 months hold.
Centaurus Metals (in @ 0.78)
Released a very positive scoping study for their Jaguar nickel deposit recently which the market sold into, price slowly floating back up. 2-5 years hold.
KEFI mining (in @ 0.23)
Took a punt on this one the day after it broke long term resistance on expectations of a positive decision on funding for it's project in Ethiopa. Announcement yesterday that funding decision delayed until June. Holding pattern, sell on news.
Cornish Metals (in @ 0.10)
Drilling commenced in early April at their United Downs project to confirm historic high grade tin. Results expected May/June. Company received permit to dewater South Crofty, plus other related permits for surface infrastructure. Very much dependant on United Downs confirming the historic high grade tin grades. Could do very well on the momentum behind tin. Hold until assays then decide.
Trackwise (in @ 2.60)
Won £38m contract last year to supply their printed witing harness technology to Arrival - the EV bus and van manufacturer who are setting up a manufacturing facility in the UK (and elsewhere globally) this year. Raised £11 million last November to quadruple production of its IHT wiring harness by Q4 this year. Various rumours circulating of an aerospace and/or medical contract, plus increase in size of the EV contract. 2-5 year hold
Ilika (in @ 2.15)
Announced they'd won a £250,000 grant from the advanced propulsion centre, to collaborate with Comau to tool up a large-scale manufacturing line, using the UK's Battery Industrialising Centre facility to produce their Goliath solid state battery at scale.
Good little Q&A here regarding the plan: https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/ilika-qa-continuing-to-improve-goliath-technology-and-scaling-up-with-the-apc-grant-lonika/412976816
Berenberg appointed as broker last week, issued their price target of £3.20 (paywalled)
Various positive news around battery production and EVs, very hot sector at the moment. This FT article for e.g. https://www.ft.com/content/c4e075b8-7289-4756-9bfe-60bf50f0cf66
2-5 year hold.
Copper the new oil apparently..
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Pete, any thoughts on Aluminium Ion batteries?
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I've noticed a few articles about this year but haven't done any research beyond the articles. Have also heard rumours of aluminium companies looking good this year but again haven't done any research at all. If you find a good one let us all know! (after buying in lower obvs..)
The whole battery EV sector is so hot right now, a lot of pressure to increase range, decrease weight, and decrease charging times. Whoever comes out on top with viable solutions are going to do very well. For e.g. Tesla keep talking about increasing the range of the vehicles, but it's reliant on a solid state (or other, maybe alu?) battery becoming viable because they're almost at the ceiling of increasing their range using lithium-ion due to the extra weight meaning marginal gains and the size taking up too much of the vehicle. Already around 30kg of nickel alone in a Tesla battery. Whole battery weighs ~500kg for a 'long range' version (350 miles).
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/25/is-nickel-the-new-gold-tesla-ceo-elon-musks-comments-inspire-interest-in-nickel/
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Pete, any thoughts on Aluminium Ion batteries?
Still haven't researched the alu batteries, but on aluminium in general I read this today on a couple of commodities investors' feeds:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ey-kFpTVcAEznZN?format=png&name=900x900)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ey_Eec4VUAIWXcP?format=png&name=900x900)
Useful overview by Mark Thompson of where we are on the commodities investment cycle:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ey-RvakXIAEHWPb?format=jpg&name=large)
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Crypto - wonder why Ethereum Classic is rocketing? It's got no real use, no prospect of ETH 2.0 Proof of Stake. Just bandwagonism?
I've recently just got back on the cypto-train. More diversified than last time. Happened to put some into ETC as it seem to be on the up, now up 108% in the last 24 hours.
I'm wondering about using StableCoins (Algorand etc.) as a store when "out" of trades, rather than going back to GBP to save on fees. You get 6% return in coinbase for any stored ALG.
Going to keep a small about of ETH and BTC for long shots, and do a bit of arbitrage on the other smaller things. Might take a few punts on some things that sound like they have some genuine future utility (Celo etc.)
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Nothing useful to add, but your post reminded me I bought some ethereum about a year ago so had a quick look at my crypto wallet and realised I've made a 1450% gain on it :lol: The initial purchase wasn't any serious money though so sadly retirement is still a way off.
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Nothing useful to add, but your post reminded me I bought some ethereum about a year ago so had a quick look at my crypto wallet and realised I've made a 1450% gain on it :lol: The initial purchase wasn't any serious money though so sadly retirement is still a way off.
:dance1: :dance1:
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I'm wondering about using StableCoins (Algorand etc.) as a store when "out" of trades, rather than going back to GBP to save on fees. You get 6% return in coinbase for any stored ALG.
ALGO likely to be popular with newcoiners using Cbase so its probably a safe bet, seems to be still the most popular on-ramp. Check out Blockfi if you're looking for interest on stablecoins, 9.3% APY on USDT and you can elect into which currency your paid (ETH, BTC, LINK etc). Terrible for trades though you will lose >2% on the spread easily. Alternatively you can use an exchange with lower fees(FTX - who also have lending/staking).
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I'm wondering about using StableCoins (Algorand etc.) as a store when "out" of trades, rather than going back to GBP to save on fees. You get 6% return in coinbase for any stored ALG.
ALGO likely to be popular with newcoiners using Cbase so its probably a safe bet, seems to be still the most popular on-ramp. Check out Blockfi if you're looking for interest on stablecoins, 9.3% APY on USDT and you can elect into which currency your paid (ETH, BTC, LINK etc). Terrible for trades though you will lose >2% on the spread easily. Alternatively you can use an exchange with lower fees(FTX - who also have lending/staking).
Yup, I just sold my ETH (nice gains to help with house down payment in not too distant future) and have it safely in USDC earning a steady 8.6%. Gimme a shout if anyone wants a Blockfi referral code ;D
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I'm wondering about using StableCoins (Algorand etc.) as a store when "out" of trades, rather than going back to GBP to save on fees. You get 6% return in coinbase for any stored ALG.
ALGO likely to be popular with newcoiners using Cbase so its probably a safe bet, seems to be still the most popular on-ramp. Check out Blockfi if you're looking for interest on stablecoins, 9.3% APY on USDT and you can elect into which currency your paid (ETH, BTC, LINK etc). Terrible for trades though you will lose >2% on the spread easily. Alternatively you can use an exchange with lower fees(FTX - who also have lending/staking).
Yup, I just sold my ETH (nice gains to help with house down payment in not too distant future) and have it safely in USDC earning a steady 8.6%. Gimme a shout if anyone wants a Blockfi referral code ;D
Did you buy the ETH this year? You get stung for CGT if you buy and sell within the same year don't you?
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I didn't think it mattered what year you sell in? Capital Gains Allowance is £12,300 though, so you need to be making a lot before you have to pay it.
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I didn't think it mattered what year you sell in? Capital Gains Allowance is £12,300 though, so you need to be making a lot before you have to pay it.
I was thinking more in the US. I thought he was US-based.
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I'm wondering about using StableCoins (Algorand etc.) as a store when "out" of trades, rather than going back to GBP to save on fees. You get 6% return in coinbase for any stored ALG.
ALGO likely to be popular with newcoiners using Cbase so its probably a safe bet, seems to be still the most popular on-ramp. Check out Blockfi if you're looking for interest on stablecoins, 9.3% APY on USDT and you can elect into which currency your paid (ETH, BTC, LINK etc). Terrible for trades though you will lose >2% on the spread easily. Alternatively you can use an exchange with lower fees(FTX - who also have lending/staking).
I would be extremely wary of holding anything in USDT:
1) Tether consistently refuses third party audits for its backing. It was reviewed three years ago (I think this was the closest they ever came to a full audit) when they only had backing for 74% of their minted coins.
2) Some of its senior personnel have rather worrying rap sheets.
3) They severed ties with their previous reserve bank and moved to an offshore reserve bank after their previous bank refused to confirm existence of the $1.8bn supposedly held there in reserve. A primary school level fake letter then appeared on social media supposedly from the bank confirming the reserves exist.
4) There are unresolved issues about how their bitfinex debt was paid. One hopes this was not paid from the reserves...
I'll use USDT for a few minutes/hours for a trade because it has higher liquidity than the other stable coins for most pairings. For anything longer term, I wouldn't touch it.
At least USDC and BUSD are regularly audited by a third party and are confirmed to be 100% backed, although Binance's shadiness is another concern.
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The CGT in the US is I think 20% for average earners, same as the UK. The US tax system looks complicated as hell. Biden talking about a massive increase in cgt for the wealthiest. Doesn't matter what year you buy/sell, any gain over the personal allowance is taxable. Any losses within 3 years offset any gains. The way to avoid cgt in the UK is to trade everything you can within an ISA up to £20k per year (or don't make any profit from trades in non-ISA accounts..).
US cgt plans: https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/biden-capital-gains-tax-plan/
I don't trade cryptos themselves for a couple of reasons - faff with wallets, I simply don't trust some of the players involved in the platforms (see above from sdm), but most pertinently I don't want to pay CGT on any gains, nor any transaction fees for converting crypto to sterling. So I just trade the crypto miners on the stock market. That way I can trade the price of bitcoin within my ISA and keep any gains tax-free. ARB is my short-term trade for getting in/out of bitcoin (currently out). It's not a perfect correlation to BTC's performance but I returned 300% on ARB from BTC's rise in February.
How to trade crypto without paying cgt: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/how-add-bitcoin-isa-profit-tax-free/
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I'm wondering about using StableCoins (Algorand etc.) as a store when "out" of trades, rather than going back to GBP to save on fees. You get 6% return in coinbase for any stored ALG.
ALGO likely to be popular with newcoiners using Cbase so its probably a safe bet, seems to be still the most popular on-ramp. Check out Blockfi if you're looking for interest on stablecoins, 9.3% APY on USDT and you can elect into which currency your paid (ETH, BTC, LINK etc). Terrible for trades though you will lose >2% on the spread easily. Alternatively you can use an exchange with lower fees(FTX - who also have lending/staking).
Yup, I just sold my ETH (nice gains to help with house down payment in not too distant future) and have it safely in USDC earning a steady 8.6%. Gimme a shout if anyone wants a Blockfi referral code ;D
Did you buy the ETH this year? You get stung for CGT if you buy and sell within the same year don't you?
If you hold for over a year (like my ETH) then it will be long term capital gains (0%, 15% or 20% dependent on income). If under a year (like my other crypto - not sold yet), then it's taxed like income - marginal rates + state + social + medicare...
No free lunch like in the UK... GUSD is another stablecoin that is 100% backed
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I don't trade cryptos themselves for a couple of reasons - faff with wallets
If anyone's looking into storing crypto in a hardware wallet (rather than on Coinbase, or wherever) I highly recommend the Ledger Nano S https://shop.ledger.com/products/ledger-nano-s
I use it alongside their desktop app (Ledger Live) which allows you to easily transfer crypto after you've plugged in the Nano and entered a pin.
They currently cost £54.50, so not super cheap, but well worth it for piece of mind and if you're thinking of holding long term.
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I've never really been too concerned about the tether controversy but i'll consider it thanks for the points.
I understand you can trade tax neutral if you take profits into a SIPP, as the gov gives you 20% on deposits. A friend of mine does this. Most SIPP providers are exchanges too so you can run profits back into other investments. SIPPs do have service charge and you can't drawdown until 55 but it all depends on your time horizon.
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Nothing useful to add, but your post reminded me I bought some ethereum about a year ago so had a quick look at my crypto wallet and realised I've made a 1450% gain on it :lol: The initial purchase wasn't any serious money though so sadly retirement is still a way off.
:dance1: :dance1:
P.S. Re-read a lot of this thread this morning and yesterday - should have listened to Pete / NorthStar back in Feb about Ether. Realise we're now in the tail end of the current run so a risky time to be catching ups.
ETH :
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E0nJCG1WQAIeeFs?format=png&name=large)
^These arcs, is the idea that once they're done all bets are off, or is the expectation that it will follow the channel onwards?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E0c6KS0WQAA2Am4?format=png&name=large)
Is it more likely it'll cool off and start a new arc?
[obviously, ignoring the fact this is mainly tea-leaf reading...but still...]
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I'm a bit frustrated with myself looking at the terrible growth of my two previous workplace pensions over the last 10 years. But, as Habrich etc. said before - it's not really a "good" time to be getting into this at the top of the market with all the QE pumping things up.
Either way, I've amalgamated both my old pensions into a SIPP and I'm now researching the best mix to satisfy my leanings and aims. It's all very long term (I'm 38) but it doesn't make sense to put it into anything right now that might take a big plunge. Just aiming for a mix of steady funds around the globe without too much exposure to US Tech. Wondering about some bonds (10% ish). There seem to be some interesting things in the world of Climate Investment Bonds which I'm reading up on now. https://www.climatebonds.net/
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Bit of an update, 4 weeks on. The tin and copper markets are hitting ATHs. 2021 definitely the year to be in the 'transition' metals. Much I could waffle about, it all boils down to DYOR but as you'll see below for those with time to do the research and means to take advantage there are gems out there in this current commodities market, with potential for life-changing gains.
Bit of an update, I'll focus on companies in which I've recently invested.
Greatland Gold (in @1.5 & recently @18.5) Currently 20.40 +10.2%
Broke out from it's recent downtrend over the last couple of days, technically looking strong for high 20s/low 30s. I'll be selling some if it hits the high 20s, likely to drop back here from sellers who bought into the last hype-fuelled rise at the high 20s/low 30s, bailing out to break even following the drop. Keeping a core holding for the long term as the deposit is a no-brainer. Short term trade & 2-5 year hold
Now expecting this to move sideways until starting to rise later in the year towards release of the PFS. Outside chance of a home-run discovery at one of their projects in P.R.E. or Scally, otherwise just a solid long-term hold.
Alphamin (in @ 0.57) Currently 0.76 +33%
Released quarterly earnings last week, excellent results and the year ahead looking even better on the back of tin shortage and exploration upside at Mpana south. Very positive, debt free by summer and even talk of a dividend. 2-5 years hold.
Hallgarten broker upgraded their 12-month price target to 0.80 on April 6th. https://alphaminresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Alphamin_April21_Update_2.pdf
Good overview on the investment case here on value investor: https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/ALPHAMIN_RESOURCES_CORP/4744168116
Quarterly earnings were good, but the next 3-4 quarters are going to be incredible! To top it they just released the much antipicated exploration results from their Mpana South project.. basically a mirror image of what they have in production at Mpana North. Barring guerrilla attack or government takeover (had to get that caveat in) this will be $1+ very soon or I'll bum doylo.
Filo Mining (in @ 2.98 & 3.50) Added more @ 8.79 Currently 9.39 +215%
Got in the day before drill results were reported. Excellent results! Many more assays to report over the coming 6 months. Very happy about the growth prospects of the Filo de la Sol prospect. 6-12 months hold.
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/filo-mining-reports-942m-at-0-67-cueq-extends-the-deposit-1-000m-to-the-north-801298452.html
I have loads of research I could share on Filo if anyone's interested. Long story short, last week's results blew up expectations, and indicate this will be the biggest copper-gold discovery in the last 20 years. By the end of this year it'll be at $20+ and a takeover could easily be in region of $40. This sort of investment doesn't come around very often in an investor's lifetime - I did it once with GGP, and I may have done it again with Filo. Thanks to one very smart person passionate about sharing truth.
Meridian Mining ( in @ 0.45) Added more @ 0.65 Currently 0.78 +73%
Got in on the back of xrf results of drill core showing very high grades at their Cabacal project (unusual approach to report xrf grades and a bit frowned upon). Awaiting assays back from the lab to confirm - should be late April/early May, but looking good here to grow into a large VMS project. Pretty excited about this project, which is one of a few win the last couple of years following the narrative of 'old mine that was uneconomic and forgotten about, being re-explored based on today's and future prices of copper/gold'. Good outline here: https://twitter.com/MeridianMining/status/1382773725876080641?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
6-12 months hold.
Another amazing solid investment. Plenty going on here. Again I can supply a lot of research on this one.
Centaurus Metals (in @ 0.78) Currently 69.5 -11%
Released a very positive scoping study for their Jaguar nickel deposit recently which the market sold into, price slowly floating back up. 2-5 years hold.
No worries here, long term hold.
KEFI mining (in @ 0.230) Currently 0.196 -11%
Took a punt on this one the day after it broke long term resistance on expectations of a positive decision on funding for it's project in Ethiopa. Announcement yesterday that funding decision delayed until June. Holding pattern, sell on news.
Same, waiting for finance announcement end of May/early June.
Cornish Metals (in @ 0.10) Currently 0.15 +50%
Drilling commenced in early April at their United Downs project to confirm historic high grade tin. Results expected May/June. Company received permit to dewater South Crofty, plus other related permits for surface infrastructure. Very much dependant on United Downs confirming the historic high grade tin grades. Could do very well on the momentum behind tin. Hold until assays then decide.
Assays not far off now, if they replicate the good widths of high grade tin of last results then this will rocket (even more..), if the results don't replicate then... The dewatering of South Crofty has commenced, will take 8-24 months. Price of tin will have made it a precious metal by then at the current rate of increase.
Trackwise (in @ 2.60) Currently 2.41 -7%
Won £38m contract last year to supply their printed witing harness technology to Arrival - the EV bus and van manufacturer who are setting up a manufacturing facility in the UK (and elsewhere globally) this year. Raised £11 million last November to quadruple production of its IHT wiring harness by Q4 this year. Various rumours circulating of an aerospace and/or medical contract, plus increase in size of the EV contract. 2-5 year hold
No worries here, long term hold.
Ilika (in @ 2.15) Currently 2.15 +0%
Announced they'd won a £250,000 grant from the advanced propulsion centre, to collaborate with Comau to tool up a large-scale manufacturing line, using the UK's Battery Industrialising Centre facility to produce their Goliath solid state battery at scale.
Good little Q&A here regarding the plan: https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/ilika-qa-continuing-to-improve-goliath-technology-and-scaling-up-with-the-apc-grant-lonika/412976816
Berenberg appointed as broker last week, issued their price target of £3.20 (paywalled)
Various positive news around battery production and EVs, very hot sector at the moment. This FT article for e.g. https://www.ft.com/content/c4e075b8-7289-4756-9bfe-60bf50f0cf66
2-5 year hold.
No worries here, long term hold.
Copper the new oil..
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Bit of an update, 4 weeks on. The tin and copper markets are hitting ATHs. 2021 definitely the year to be in the 'transition' metals. Much I could waffle about, it all boils down to DYOR but as you'll see below for those with time to do the research and means to take advantage there are gems out there in this current commodities market, with potential for life-changing gains.
Bit of an update, I'll focus on companies in which I've recently invested.
Greatland Gold (in @1.5 & recently @18.5) Currently 20.40 +10.2%
Broke out from it's recent downtrend over the last couple of days, technically looking strong for high 20s/low 30s. I'll be selling some if it hits the high 20s, likely to drop back here from sellers who bought into the last hype-fuelled rise at the high 20s/low 30s, bailing out to break even following the drop. Keeping a core holding for the long term as the deposit is a no-brainer. Short term trade & 2-5 year hold
Now expecting this to move sideways until starting to rise later in the year towards release of the PFS. Outside chance of a home-run discovery at one of their projects in P.R.E. or Scally, otherwise just a solid long-term hold.
Alphamin (in @ 0.57) Currently 0.76 +33%
Released quarterly earnings last week, excellent results and the year ahead looking even better on the back of tin shortage and exploration upside at Mpana south. Very positive, debt free by summer and even talk of a dividend. 2-5 years hold.
Hallgarten broker upgraded their 12-month price target to 0.80 on April 6th. https://alphaminresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Alphamin_April21_Update_2.pdf
Good overview on the investment case here on value investor: https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/ALPHAMIN_RESOURCES_CORP/4744168116
Quarterly earnings were good, but the next 3-4 quarters are going to be incredible! To top it they just released the much antipicated exploration results from their Mpana South project.. basically a mirror image of what they have in production at Mpana North. Barring guerrilla attack or government takeover (had to get that caveat in) this will be $1+ very soon or I'll bum doylo.
Filo Mining (in @ 2.98 & 3.50) Added more @ 8.79 Currently 9.39 +215%
Got in the day before drill results were reported. Excellent results! Many more assays to report over the coming 6 months. Very happy about the growth prospects of the Filo de la Sol prospect. 6-12 months hold.
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/filo-mining-reports-942m-at-0-67-cueq-extends-the-deposit-1-000m-to-the-north-801298452.html
I have loads of research I could share on Filo if anyone's interested. Long story short, last week's results blew up expectations, and indicate this will be the biggest copper-gold discovery in the last 20 years. By the end of this year it'll be at $20+ and a takeover could easily be in region of $40. This sort of investment doesn't come around very often in an investor's lifetime - I did it once with GGP, and I may have done it again with Filo. Thanks to one very smart person passionate about sharing truth.
Meridian Mining ( in @ 0.45) Added more @ 0.65 Currently 0.78 +73%
Got in on the back of xrf results of drill core showing very high grades at their Cabacal project (unusual approach to report xrf grades and a bit frowned upon). Awaiting assays back from the lab to confirm - should be late April/early May, but looking good here to grow into a large VMS project. Pretty excited about this project, which is one of a few win the last couple of years following the narrative of 'old mine that was uneconomic and forgotten about, being re-explored based on today's and future prices of copper/gold'. Good outline here: https://twitter.com/MeridianMining/status/1382773725876080641?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
6-12 months hold.
Another amazing solid investment. Plenty going on here. Again I can supply a lot of research on this one.
Centaurus Metals (in @ 0.78) Currently 69.5 -11%
Released a very positive scoping study for their Jaguar nickel deposit recently which the market sold into, price slowly floating back up. 2-5 years hold.
No worries here, long term hold.
KEFI mining (in @ 0.230) Currently 0.196 -11%
Took a punt on this one the day after it broke long term resistance on expectations of a positive decision on funding for it's project in Ethiopa. Announcement yesterday that funding decision delayed until June. Holding pattern, sell on news.
Same, waiting for finance announcement end of May/early June.
Cornish Metals (in @ 0.10) Currently 0.15 +50%
Drilling commenced in early April at their United Downs project to confirm historic high grade tin. Results expected May/June. Company received permit to dewater South Crofty, plus other related permits for surface infrastructure. Very much dependant on United Downs confirming the historic high grade tin grades. Could do very well on the momentum behind tin. Hold until assays then decide.
Assays not far off now, if they replicate the good widths of high grade tin of last results then this will rocket (even more..), if the results don't replicate then... The dewatering of South Crofty has commenced, will take 8-24 months. Price of tin will have made it a precious metal by then at the current rate of increase.
Trackwise (in @ 2.60) Currently 2.41 -7%
Won £38m contract last year to supply their printed witing harness technology to Arrival - the EV bus and van manufacturer who are setting up a manufacturing facility in the UK (and elsewhere globally) this year. Raised £11 million last November to quadruple production of its IHT wiring harness by Q4 this year. Various rumours circulating of an aerospace and/or medical contract, plus increase in size of the EV contract. 2-5 year hold
No worries here, long term hold.
Ilika (in @ 2.15) Currently 2.15 +0%
Announced they'd won a £250,000 grant from the advanced propulsion centre, to collaborate with Comau to tool up a large-scale manufacturing line, using the UK's Battery Industrialising Centre facility to produce their Goliath solid state battery at scale.
Good little Q&A here regarding the plan: https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/ilika-qa-continuing-to-improve-goliath-technology-and-scaling-up-with-the-apc-grant-lonika/412976816
Berenberg appointed as broker last week, issued their price target of £3.20 (paywalled)
Various positive news around battery production and EVs, very hot sector at the moment. This FT article for e.g. https://www.ft.com/content/c4e075b8-7289-4756-9bfe-60bf50f0cf66
2-5 year hold.
No worries here, long term hold.
Copper the new oil..
Cheers for the update (I've been silently following) and it's nice to see some good movement in their/your results.
I have a bit of cash coming free in a month's time and have nothing in this year's ISA allowance. So I might take a bite at FFilo
*although my Mrs makes copper jewellery and just watching the cost of that go up this year has been wallet breaking
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I don't think Filo is eligible to be held in ISAs?
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I don't think Filo is eligible to be held in ISAs?
That's me not explaining fully and no sleep last night - I mean, use the ISA and the rest in Filo.
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I don't think Filo is eligible to be held in ISAs?
How so?
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/f/filo-mining-corp-common-stock-npv
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I don't think Filo is eligible to be held in ISAs?
How so?
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/f/filo-mining-corp-common-stock-npv
Yeah I thought you could, although potentially there's some sort of Canadian tax paperwork faff to sort out (I don't know, but you have to do something for US shares don't you to address the tax stuff?).
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You need to do a form that takes 2 mins.
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Thanks for the correction.
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I don't think Filo is eligible to be held in ISAs?
That's me not explaining fully and no sleep last night - I mean, use the ISA and the rest in Filo.
Filo available in isa depending on your broker. I use II and they allow all sorts of minor international markets in my isa account.
4 brokers raised their price targets for filo since last Thursday’s drill results. Interim price targets:
BMO $11 from $4.50
Cannacord Genuity $13 from $5
National Bank of Canada $12.75 from $6
Haywood revised theirs last Friday, to $11.50 from $5
3 risks to be aware of with Filo:
1. There will likely be a capital raise in the coming months to fund the increased year-round drilling required to prove up such a massive discovery. This will be minorly dilutive - $50m would currently represent around 5% of market cap. Filo are in the driving seat and can pick their moment.
2. There are two zones of copper mineralisation - oxide cap (lower grade, shallow open pit) and sulphide zone (high grade, underground bulk mining). The sulphides contain an arsenic component. Arsenic is deleterious to value from the smelter. How deleterious depends on the ratio between grade of copper versus ppm of arsenic. High grade copper negates much of the deleterious impact of arsenic. Low grade copper plus high amounts of arsenic = problem. Filo don’t have that problem according to the latest investor webinar on Monday, but they’re carrying metallurgy on the ore and will report on findings.
3. The deposit straddles the Argentina/Chile border. Thankfully 90/10 Argentina-Chile. Chilean politicians are trying to pass a massive tax hike on mining supposedly to help pay for covid hit, which would result in a 75% tax rate when copper is over $4 per pound (current spot price $4.55). This is a massive disincentive for miners to open new projects in chile and is expected to result in exodus of investment and raising copper prices even further. Filo don’t need to mine the Chilean part of the ore, the best grades and the meat of it are on the Argentina side. Risk is of other s.american countries following Chile. Peru’s leading presidential candidate is talking about a similar policy. Brazil and Argentina aren’t, but could. Ultimately would send the copper market into a frenzy if those policies come about and would work against them as the big miners will just shut down their investment into those countries and limit operations until things change. There’s no point mining with an added 40% overhead, the minerals aren’t going anywhere and prices will go ballistic if they don’t mine.
Info: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-06/in-top-copper-nation-chile-a-giant-tax-hike-moves-a-step-closer
The upside is genuinely massive. The next two holes are pending reporting to market and some think they’ll be very meaty (bearing in mind the last hole reported was the best copper intercept in decades). Hole 46 goes beyond 1500m and Hole 52 a vertical step out hole to the north to confirm a zone where they’ve already had good grades.
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I have an awful lot of old copper piping in the shed. Is this a good time to sort it out and weigh it in. Or should I hang on to it a little longer?
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Is your shed in Chile? If yes then sell now before higher taxes!
Consensus view is for copper price to continue to increase. Up to a point where it becomes unaffordable and substitutions take over for some electrical uses, aluminium for eg.
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Pete, any thoughts on Aluminium Ion batteries?
Looked at this some more. An Australian company called Graphene Manufacturing Group listed on the Toronto exchange released news last week about their graphene aluminium-ion battery cells.. If they can scale this up it'd be very interesting. I've taken a small position, missed the recent big rise.
Overview: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltaylor/2021/05/13/ev-range-breakthrough-as-new-aluminum-ion-battery-charges-60-times-faster-than-lithium-ion/?sh=1b401886d287
Interview and next steps to market: http://www.kereport.com/2021/05/14/gmg-graphene-manufacturing-group-recent-graphene-aluminum-ion-battery-performance-data-and-the-next-steps-to-get-the-batteries-into-the-market/
Video released today on 'cleanerwatt': https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZp7BQnDPfE
Links to more detailed information can be found on the CEO.ca GMG board.. if you wade through the 'face-ripping' posts there are some links to good info.
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Crypto in a slump, but could be good buying opportunity. Good waiting to rebound opportunity for me :whistle:
For all those who question the utility and energy use of Bitcoin - I suspect something like Celo (disclosure, I'm holding a small amount) ticks so many boxes:
https://medium.com/celoorg/a-carbon-negative-blockchain-its-here-and-it-s-celo-60228de36490
It's also price stable for use as a payment scheme. Currently pegged to the USD of EUR, but they're aiming to peg against natural resources (rainforest etc.). Techno hippies. Happy for any inside info on why it's a bad idea...
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Pete, any thoughts on Aluminium Ion batteries?
I've taken a small position, missed the recent big rise.
Where did you do your trade? Can't see it on HL or II. Sounds promising!
P.S. Ever thought of running your own UKB hedge fund??? 8)
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Apols missed that post.. I use Interactive Investor for all my trades (ISA and standard trading account). Can buy pretty much any company in any western market, in the trading account or the ISA.
So, it's all going off in resource investment land..
Filo. Research paid off and you won't see many better resource discoveries in a lifetime. I'll forever chuckle at Offwidth's view whenever I think of Filo (although I could chuckle about him when I think about many other companies I also hold). Holding to $20 where I'll take some profits and keep some in for a buy-out. I'd urge anyone interested to look into Filo even at current price, they're still massively undervalued. Already turned what was a large holding into a very large holding but expecting it to double from here.
Latest company presentation out here: https://filo-mining.com/site/assets/files/6370/fil_corp_pres_june_2021-09.pdf
Cornish Metals. Price going off on one now.. There's been a lot of publicity surrounding the G7 in Cornwall, and there's various talk and rumours of government announcements over the weekend about funding for developing Cornwall's mining industry. Lots of political capital to be had here, with banner headlines of protecting UK's strategic assets needed for the electrification pivot and domestic manufacture of EVs/batteries and infrastructure. Basically this is a no-brainer 'right time/right place' opportunity for the miners and supporting actors to make their case.
The South Crofty resource estimate was surprisingly updated yesterday with a large increase in inferred resource. Taking advantage of the media spotlight no doubt. But the big news is still awaited - the make or break drilling results from the United Downs project. Expected by this weekend or just after.. This will either rocket the share price (to unrealistic levels - sell the spike!), or if they disappoint the price will take a big hit. A binary speculative play. I took out profits on Monday with an approx 40% gain, and I'm keeping the rest in for the win..
Super film explaining the future of Cornwall's mining industry and it's link to the future green infrastructure here (Cornish Metals @ 52mins) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tO25QQw0bcY
Alphamin. Up at 73-75 level currently. They released more drilling results from their Mpana South project.. as expected amazing resource which can double their asset/output. Really isn't a more no-brainer company in mining, provided you can stomach the jurisdiction risk of DRC. Tin shortage isn't going away. This is a cash-generation machine and will be debt-free and paying a dividend by autumn. I have a massive holding in this and holding for $1.50
Greatland. Broker canncord genuity initiated coverage with 25p price target. Lots more to come but a slow burner for now. Updated drill results out last night continue to deliver high grades. 18-24 months until producer re-rating. PFS later this year will be a catalyst.
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Filo. Research paid off and you won't see many better resource discoveries in a lifetime.
Thanks Pete, I bought some when you first suggested it.
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Filo. Research paid off and you won't see many better resource discoveries in a lifetime.
Thanks Pete, I bought some when you first suggested it.
Nice one, I'm on the bandwagon too. Just got a little more too. As a relatively inexperienced investor with a poor track record in crypto...... It's a tricky balance finding the optimum level of risk/reward (in terms of how much $$ it's worth going in on something like this). Not just following Pete's word, I did do a fair bit of research (how effective my research is could be questioned...).
I guess it's probably good to consider it in terms of how long it would take to accumulate the stake through work? For me, I've only got about 50% of my usual spare monthly cash in FILO, plus similar or less in a few others that may, or may not yield good results. So, all in I have about 2 months' disposable income in "punts" (Arrival - could be a future Tesla, Hyundai - just seem solid with good new EV offerings and an ok yield, and probably my weakest choice - TPIC composites - basically the supplier for most of the wind turbine blades. It's taken a bit of a hit since I bought in (may be overvalued, time will tell).
I guess it's good to start small and see how we go....
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On topic of how much you should risk on each punt, there's quite a good book called Come into my Trading Room by Dr Alexander Elder. A lot of it is about technical and swing trading which is good if you're interested in that.
But one thing that particularly stayed with me is that in the investment banking industry, traders are constrained by risk management professionals who are always looking over their shoulder. And essentially they would never be allowed to put at stake more than 2% of their capital in any one investment.
Dr Elder recommends this as a good rule of thumb for individual traders too, never put more than 2% of your wealth at risk on one investment. This doesn't mean you can't invest more, but you need to set your stop loss so you can't lose more than 2%. Key to long term success is limiting losses.
Always seemed like a good rule to me.
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On topic of how much you should risk on each punt, there's quite a good book called Come into my Trading Room by Dr Alexander Elder. A lot of it is about technical and swing trading which is good if you're interested in that.
But one thing that particularly stayed with me is that in the investment banking industry, traders are constrained by risk management professionals who are always looking over their shoulder. And essentially they would never be allowed to put at stake more than 2% of their capital in any one investment.
Dr Elder recommends this as a good rule of thumb for individual traders too, never put more than 2% of your wealth at risk on one investment. This doesn't mean you can't invest more, but you need to set your stop loss so you can't lose more than 2%. Key to long term success is limiting losses.
Always seemed like a good rule to me.
Interesting, thanks. Was just doing a bit of analysis of the various funds I've recently moved my pensions into, and, due to my ESG/Sustainable bent, and focus on Asia / Emerging Markets - I notice Taiwan Semiconductor Manuf. being the top listing in 3 of them. Just crunched the numbers, and it's only 2.2% of all my holdings, so not too bad.
I take it you'd be counting housing equity, pensions etc. in your "wealth". If so, I'm nowhere near 2% on any single holding. 0.6% on a rough calc on Taiwan SemiConductor.
The £10/trade fee on HL does encourage you to go for bigger holdings so as to minimise your instant loss.
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Filo. Research paid off and you won't see many better resource discoveries in a lifetime.
Thanks Pete, I bought some when you first suggested it.
I also got in on the bandwagon, but at the point of Pete’s update 4 weeks in.
Initially lost a bit in Cornish and Filo but both are up around 15% for me at the moment, that’s including 2 additional buy-ins with Filo.
I’m just waiting on a different account to open so I can get in on Alphamin too.
I spend some time reading through Petes links and tracking the stocks a bit and it felt like a great set of stocks.
I’m not going to make life changing amounts at the moment but a healthy return as things go as hoped.
I previously day traded financial stocks as I tracked them a lot more and knew certain stocks could generally have some steady volatility (e.g. if Lloyds dropped at open it would generally claw back a percent or two over the day). Though it was always small amounts of regular profit.
These are the first stocks I’ve held onto for any amount of time - I said to Pete in a PM that the geology/drilling aspect is really interesting. Finance seemed very speculative but with these there’s real tangible resources which seems to make them a little more predictable.
Also more than evens out my crypto losses :chair:
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It's good to hear people have benefitted from some of the ideas on this thread. That is the idea of it after all. A few people have messaged similar about Filo and/or Cornish, Alphamin.
Fultonius that post goes to the heart of investing. There's no correct answer as everyone's goals, risk tolerance and life circumstances are different.
A good first step is (I think you said you do this..) to record every trade you make in a trading log - something as simple or elaborate as you like. Mine is just: company, # shares bought, @ what price, total invested, date sold, profit/loss. I make sure with every company I buy to write down a short goal at the time of purchase - i.e. 'sell @x price', 'hold until end of summer drill campaign', 'sell on news', 'expect to go to x price', 'sell if x loss'. Etc.
There's no correct goal (other than to profit, or minimise a loss), just have one so that you can look back and compare to the reality of how things play out. It helps identify if you're being led by emotion/herd thinking.
This then builds a framework to look at with the benefit of hindsight and better understand your own decision-making in the fear/greed environment of the markets. Once you understand yourself and your relationship to investing better, you can hopefully apply that knowledge to trade in a dispassionate way.
Re risk v return. I find the below useful as a philosophical framework for understanding investment risk. It was written by an investor in a group I'm a member of, a smart guy who I've never met:
''It's which would disappoint you more -- if you stay in and it halved, or you got out and it doubled. Quantify your disappointment level in each case on a scale of 1-10.
But then, make your best guess as to the likelihood of those outcomes, percentage-wise. Adjust those percentages if you are naturally a pessimist or an optimist to reflect your tendency .
And then, multiply the percentages by your disappointment level.
If the results aren't roughly balanced, you may want to rebalance your share holdings.’’
I do this for large gains, and I record it in my trading log dated so I can look back at my decision-making at that time versus how reality unfolded.
For an e.g. here's the last time I did it for my holding in GGP (fate, I hope you're not paying attention):
Update 30/1/21
12-month outlook
Hold, lose 50% (from 25p to 12.5p)
Disappointment: (out of 10): 7
Estimated likelihood: 20%
140
Sell now, miss out on 100% rise (from 25p to 50p)
Disappointment: 8
Estimated Likelihood: 40%
320
Obviously, the likelihood estimates are personal and subjective based on imperfect information. The better your information the more accurate your estimates can be. People struggle with probability, some more than others. I like thinking in terms of probabilities and find myself doing it often in climbing/general life. Bayes' Theorem fascinates me and the concept resonates. Learning to research and find reliable sources of info increases your chances of making good probability estimates.
Other considerations - what is your goal from investing? Is it a bit of fun and a little spare cash which you don' treally mind if you lose? Or are you trying to build a retirement pot - in which case the first priority should be capital preservation, followed by capital growth. Or are you trying to win big and make a life-changing gain?
The investment goal can merge together and change as circumstances change, they did for me. I started out 20 years ago as just having a bit of fun with spare cash. Then it morphed into trying to build a sum for a mortgage payment. Then I was fortunate to be in the right time/place to know a high-probability jackpot when I encountered it. But only because I'd been present in the markets for the last 20 years taking my chances. Now, I'm firmly in never want to work again mode and balancing capital preservation with a bit of capital growth. At some point I'll go into full-on capital preservation mode with it all in tracker ETFs, bonds, property funds and maybe a little bit of gold. I'll always keep a small pot for trading as I enjoy the research and the game of finding good value and growth companies ahead of the herd. I liken the sense of discovery to developing new routes/crags.
A couple of final considerations -
In mining the exploration companies are often pop and drop due to the nature of making a discovery and then waiting up to 10-15 years to get the finance to build it into a profitable producing mine. Don't hold on too long to most big exploration stories! (GGP is a rare outlier, for reasons too long to go into here).
Producers are leveraged to the price of the commodity. Good quality gold miners are a good 'value' investment play in a rising gold price. The Barricks, Kirkland Lakes, Newmonts and Newcrests of the world. Same for any producer of any commodity - Alphamin the obvious e.g. for tin. Adriatic Metals will be a barnstormer for silver (another company I got in early last year thanks to good research by people gracious with their knowledge).
Running counter to the standard risk/reward narrative is that nearly everyone who makes a life-changing gain does it by disregarding the advice to take profits at a sensible stage. They did it by holding on long-term to a massive riser. There are loads of people I've read tell me how they sold out of GGP for a 100% gain when it went from 1.5p to 3p. They were prudent to do so. Some people including me held and made 2000%. But that's not what normally happens with shares. Steady profit-taking is the way for most long-term success.
On stop-losses. They're a prudent idea but can fail in volatile exploration investment plays. When a company gaps down on opening, say from reporting unexpectedly disappointing results, they'll smash through your stop loss with you unable to sell at the price you set your stop loss. Also market makers go searching for stop-losses and limit sells in volatile companies on AIM. Careful where you set either. For more stable companies/markets they're a sensible protection.
On not putting more than 2% into any share. It's a good way to limit losses, and a good way to limit your gains. A better strategy - 'better' being linked to your goal and risk appetite of course - is to keep buying into your winners (momentum trade) and sell your losers quickly. But like everything it works until it doesn't.
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On not putting more than 2% into any share. It's a good way to limit losses, and a good way to limit your gains. A better strategy - 'better' being linked to your goal and risk appetite of course - is to keep buying into your winners (momentum trade) and sell your losers quickly. But like everything it works until it doesn't.
I think it's more about limiting your potential loss on any one trade to 2%, not limiting your input. But as you say stop losses have their flaws, I've been shaken out of the tree a few times. I'm always amazed that this sort of behaviour is legitimate by the market makers, basically institutions taking advantage of information assymmetry to take money from retail investors.
In terms of your trading diary this is exactly what Dr Elder refers to in his book. Same as a training log, helps you learn from your mistakes. I've tried in in the past but for last 5 years my job role has prevented me from trading individual shares. Am now allowed to look at investing again and am considering a PeteJH portfolio. Limited to 2% per position of course. :P
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;D I'm mostly standing on the shoulders of far smarter investors.
But as you say stop losses have their flaws, I've been shaken out of the tree a few times. I'm always amazed that this sort of behaviour is legitimate by the market makers, basically institutions taking advantage of information assymmetry to take money from retail investors.
I think that's just how large groups of humans work, in lots of areas of life, and the financial system is designed to control the majority and empower the minority. Humans are designed to follow the herd, believe in leaders, listen to authority, and take short-term gratification over long-term reward. And the stock market is a psychological trick played on the unwitting by the more powerful, which uses our biases against us. If you're of a certain anti-authority questioning mindset and understand some of the practices employed by the powerful then I think you can prosper in that environment, provided you work hard and understand it's not a team sport. We're all trading against each other.
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Sorry if this has been posted already. Fascinating video about Bitcoin, from The Economist:
https://youtu.be/5tt7y0gesyo
I may have heard something about the energy required to process Bitcoin, but I was unaware that the environmental impact was possibly as significant.
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Filo update, broker Haywood reaffirms target ($20) after the latest drill results released today. Steady hands.. it's a middle-distance event not a sprint. Hole 46 is next catalyst.
https://twitter.com/MiningCatalyst/status/1404895381570215936/photo/1
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I think that's just how large groups of humans work, in lots of areas of life, and the financial system is designed to control the majority and empower the minority. Humans are designed to follow the herd, believe in leaders, listen to authority, and take short-term gratification over long-term reward. And the stock market is a psychological trick played on the unwitting by the more powerful, which uses our biases against us. If you're of a certain anti-authority questioning mindset and understand some of the practices employed by the powerful then I think you can prosper in that environment
Would you mind expanding on that a bit. I'm as interested in the anthropological and psychological aspects of this as how it might affect one's trading mindset.
Thanks very much.
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To answer that would take a very long time because you'd need to come at it from lots of different angles and have a working knowledge of how trading works at a technical level, and how different actors operate in the markets. But one angle to consider is how do people find an edge over average market returns, and how difficult is this? Having an edge is often an illusion, not many sustain an edge for very long. Here's an explainer but it's a bit technical:
https://twitter.com/therobotjames/status/1387216598331650052
The 'Citadel' he refers to are a huge market maker based in the US. They're the type of actor you'll be interacting with when you make a trade in a well-known company on one of the major markets. They buy the information flow from trading platforms such as RobinHood in the US, and make a margin by acting as the buyer/seller on the trades. It's institutions such as this that I'm referring to when I say the system is set up to empower the minority at the expense of the majority. Offwidth earlier in the thread lamented the information asymmetry and power imbalance in the markets and claimed the average private investor can never win against the 'big boys'. He's referring to these types of structures, and he isn't wrong per se - if you're trying to make money on the major markets in the well-known companies you're likely going to do no better than the average market return. And if you try short-term trading you're likely to lose. But what he fails to understand (because he probably doesn't have direct experience of doing it) is there are still highly speculative niche areas of the markets where it's possible to just be a geek and do lots of donkey-work of trawling through information and understanding the process, where the 'big boy' institutions don't really have much extra sway over the information and share price action because the market is too small - i.e. the low level of trade flow isn't worth much, and the fundamentals affecting value might be too technical for them to focus much of their attention on.
Other examples of finding an edge are more to do with the minutiae of how markets work - such as the monthly or quarterly rebalancing that goes on in tracker funds and how to take advantage of it.. this is the realm of quants (quantitative analysts) but can be learned by the average geeky private investor. Not of much interest to me but I have a basic awareness. Again, the smaller the index tracked by an ETF, the more information parity there is with the 'big boys'.
Off the back of this information asymmetry in the markets, the 'big boys' have a view into what price levels private investors have bought into a share at, and using this they can and do manipulate prices up or down to play with private investors' emotions of fear or greed. That's what markets do to you - make you fearful of losing your money or make you greedy for more money. That's where the psychology comes in. It's difficult and requires faith in your strong research (or just innate patience or dumb blind faith!) to be able to behave counter to the way we're wired to react to losses and gains. Prices dropping should be welcomed if you've done your research, and rising prices should be times to be fearful and sell out. For a good description of investor psychology read 'The Intelligent Investor' by Benjamin Graham, the foundation of value investing. It explains 'Mr Market' and the irrationality and group-think that result from the fear and greed emotions.
It's a massive topic. People can and do find an edge just short term trading using chart technical analysis and an understanding of investor behaviour, they make small amounts of profit off the noise in the market. With discipline they can have a small edge but it's a full time task. Not for me. I'm into building an understanding of the fundamentals of something - for me it's mineral exploration, mining, biotech, and technology linked to the transition to low-carbon power and transport.
I haven't explained that very well. Basically - the big insto's have the big markets zipped up and it's v.hard to beat the average market return (+ive or -ive). Find a subject in a relatively niche area that you enjoy learning about, learn as much about it as you can, and exploit it until the herd move in.
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No, I think you've explained it very well, it certainly has increased my understanding, thanks. Whereas your original post read like a load of conspiratorial bollocks quite frankly! I don't think humans 'are designed' for starters, and I'm not sure the markets were particularly either. I'd say both have arisen as consequences of largely random events in complex systems.
The statement that 'the stock market is a psychological trick' also seems a bit of a stretch. Your explanation goes a long way to clearing it up but would seem to be reliant on the ratio of private investors to 'big boys'. I don't doubt the markets get manipulated but do the private investors really hold such a large percentage of the market that they can be so played by the 'big boys'? (genuine question not rhetorical btw).
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Yes, that was my lazy use of language. I often assume people know what I really mean, when they probably don’t.
Of course I don’t think humans are designed. ‘evolved to be’ would have been better language.
And yes, markets likewise - a complex system which has evolved in a certain way. Which powerful actors can exploit to their ends.
Yes the profit on private investor trading is huge. I’m out atm but do a search for Citadel and you’ll see their *profit* on PI trading flow is in the billions of dollars.
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The reddit wallstreet bet team are at it again:
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/o0kufi/arvl_the_second_transaction_to_reset_the_clock/
I've got some in at @ $19.62 (bought as a hunch that they have something to give the world), currently at $22. 44% short ratio (which is a warning I guess), so I'm strapping in to see if this goes all GameStop again!
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Yes, that was my lazy use of language. I often assume people know what I really mean, when they probably don’t.
Of course I don’t think humans are designed. ‘evolved to be’ would have been better language.
And yes, markets likewise - a complex system which has evolved in a certain way. Which powerful actors can exploit to their ends.
Yes the profit on private investor trading is huge. I’m out atm but do a search for Citadel and you’ll see their *profit* on PI trading flow is in the billions of dollars.
The other thing you can do is invest in those companies that make money from the market.
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I just took a small punt on Filo, cheers for the nod Pete.
I've more money freeing up over the next week and I can extend that amongst other things.
Decided to use ii rather than Hargreaves like most of my friends - after a little play with the interface with it, my brain seemed to click with it better.
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This is something I should probably know, but I don’t. Possibly because I’ve always traded big stocks (e.g. Lloyds).
For Cornish Metals, for example, there was a rise in SP yesterday and it’s moved up/down by small amounts recently too.
However my holding value has never changed as, I guess, the sell price hasn’t moved from 14.5p.
Can anyone explain why this happens to me please? I’m guessing it’s to do with it being a smaller stock which has a smaller market cap but don’t understand it really.
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It'll be due to the margin spread between the bid and ask, i.e. the margin made by market makers between price to sell versus price to buy. For small companies with low liquidity the spread is normally larger than for large companies with a very liquid market. For e.g. https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=CUSN&share=Cornish-Metals
(btw the LSE chat forum can be a useful source of information for some companies but utterly awful cesspit of arguing for others, tread carefully).
If you go on your HL account and do a 'dummy sell' - i.e. start the process to sell your shares but don't make the final step - then you should receive an accurate price that HL will offer you for your shares, which can be higher (or lower) than the spread advertised when you do a simple google of the share price. Just be careful making dummy trades as there are countless stories of people selling accidently!
edit: btw I noticed in today's RNS from Cornish that the first batch of drill results for United Downs will be reported 'imminently'..
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Cheers Pete, that makes sense. Doing a dummy trade showed the actual price up. 👍🏻
And yeah I noticed their update. Hopefully it’s soon, and positive!
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Cornish Metals released drill results today. They only released assays for the first of seven holes and left the carrot of the remaining 6 holes dangling with some suggestive positive narrative in the report. The first hole is positive with some narrow widths of very high grade copper and tin that add confidence to last year's results. But the meat of the information is in the remaining holes. Looking good here and looking forward to seeing the remaining 6 holes.
Report here, including photos of some impressive native copper (pure metal, not combined ore) core intercepts from a new copper zone discovered in pending hole 7. https://www.cornishmetals.com/news/2021/cornish-metals-reports-resultw-from-ongoing-united-downs-drill-programme/
Alphamin & Filo (among others) remain no-brainer holds. Filo hole 46 (the 1500m hole) expected mid-July.
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Also an updated broker note today for Cornish from Hannam&Partners. They obviously like what they see in that first hole, updated their target price to C$38c (22p). Haven't had time to read the note yet. Full note here: https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1ge8fha-Cornish_Update_060721.pdf
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Ilika (solid state EV battery manufacturer) announced a capital raise of £25m on Friday by offering new shares at a placing price of £1.40, significantly diluting the current share price. Offer closed within hours. As a current shareholder I'll be taking up option to purchase at £1.40 on the open placing.
Money to be used to accelerate development and scale-up to commercial production of it's goliath EV battery. Its miniature solid state battery Stereax, for use in medical implants and industrial sensors, begins commercial sales in early 2022.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/IKA/proposed-placing-open-offer-and-retail-offer-864ismq99acompl.html
Background to, and reasons for, the Capital Raising
''Ilika is a world-renowned independent expert in the design and manufacture of solid-state batteries.
Ilika has patented expertise in solid-state battery materials, cell designs and processes for manufacturing. There are a number of sectors where original equipment manufacturers ("OEMs") are interested in accessing Ilika's solid state battery technology to power their products. These include EVs, industrial sensors (otherwise known as the Industrial Internet of Things or "IoT"), medical technology ("MedTech") and consumer electronics.
Designs of conventional large format lithium ion cells are reaching their maximum theoretical energy density of 300-350 Wh/kg. Solid state cell designs offer the promise of theoretical energy densities of 475-525 Wh/kg depending on the choice of architecture and materials. Developers around the world are designing and making prototype solid state cells that are gradually increasing in energy density. These new designs are expected to yield energy densities that will exceed conventional lithium ion cells in 2022 and move towards the theoretical limit of such designs over the next five years.
Solid-state cells have a number of environmental benefits over traditional lithium ion cells. Currently, only 5 per cent. of lithium ion cells are recycled and yet they are environmentally harmful due to liquid electrolyte toxicity and the risk of fire and explosions. Traditional lithium ion cells cannot be landfilled or incinerated. In contrast, solid-state cells present no risk of explosion from a flammable electrolyte and commonly available process technologies can be used for recycling, including the oxide electrolytes preferred by Ilika's cells.
In March 2020, Ilika completed an over-subscribed £15 million equity placing, allowing the Company to support the implementation of its Stereax manufacturing scale-up in its own manufacturing operation based within four miles of Ilika's headquarters. This is expected to result in a 70x increase in Stereax production capacity by the end of 2021. Following product qualification, initial product sales are expected in the first half of 2022. Substantial progress has been made towards the completion of the manufacturing facility, including factory acceptance tests for key tools. To date, the Company has spent £2.5 million of the £4.0 million total expected spend on fabrication facility implementation. Once the technology transfer into the manufacturing facility has been achieved, Ilika's business model will continue to be to sell Stereax batteries, although some parts of the manufacturing workflow will be managed on an outsourced basis. The manufacturing facility will be capable of processing 3,500 wafers per annum with an expected revenue generating capability at peak capacity of £12 million per annum. In order to manage the scale-up in production, Ilika hired a Technology Transfer Director in 2020 and is hiring a team with relevant industrial experience. A further step-up in production capacity with a larger manufacturing partner is expected to be required further into the future, when a licensing model may be more appropriate.
In September 2019, Ilika announced the opening of its new large format battery facility, the Goliath pre-pilot line, in Romsey, UK, to support its portfolio of industrial collaborations. On this pre-pilot line, Ilika is developing low-cost printing processes suitable for forming batteries several orders of magnitude larger than miniature Stereax batteries. Establishing this facility formed part of the activities covered by the scope of three Goliath projects being carried out on a collaborative basis with the support of the Faraday Battery Challenge, which is managed by Innovate UK. The three projects supported the production of A6 format composite battery structures by the fourth quarter of 2019, followed by continuously improving cell designs which delivered greater than 100 cycles without failure and conversion efficiencies greater than 90 per cent. by the fourth quarter of 2020. A reproducible baseline manufacturing process was established by the first quarter of 2021.
Given the accelerating demand and addressable market for EVs, underpinned by government policies, scaling Goliath presents a large opportunity for the Company. The Company's Goliath technology development path is aligned with the EV revolution currently taking place, as annual sales accelerate to meet international commitments to reduce carbon emissions. The Company is able to utilise the experience gained from its Stereax technology to help with the scale-up of the Goliath programme.
According to International Energy Agency data, after a decade of rapid growth, in 2020, the global electric car stock reached 10 million, a 43 per cent. increase over 2019, and now represents a 1 per cent. share of all car stock. Battery electric vehicles ("BEVs") accounted for two-thirds of new electric car registrations and two-thirds of the stock in 2020. OEMs are expected to embrace electric mobility more widely in the 2020s. Notably, 18 of the 20 largest OEMs (by vehicles sold in 2020), which combined accounted for almost 90 per cent. of all worldwide new car registrations in 2020, have announced intentions to increase the number of available models and boost production of electric light-duty vehicles ("LDVs") and more than 10 of the largest OEMs worldwide have declared electrification targets for 2030 and beyond. The development path for Goliath batteries is aligned with this market growth. BloombergNEF expects that production of solid state cells will ramp up steadily from 2028 and that, by 2035, they will account for nearly 50 per cent. of total EV batteries in Europe, amounting to 150 GWh of production. Solid-state batteries are expected to reach price parity with conventional lithium ion cells the year prior to this in 2034.
The adoption of EVs is being driven by legislation around the world in order to reduce carbon emissions and tackle climate change. The EV industry has a roadmap to improve the characteristics of batteries. In the UK, the Automotive Council has published a set of market needs, setting out the improvements in the principal characteristics required to 2035 and beyond. Solid-state batteries have the promise of being able to deliver performance improvements aligned with the industry EV roadmap over and above what the incremental improvements in traditional, liquid-electrolyte-based lithium-ion cells are expected to deliver.
Ilika expects that the initial commercial adoption of its Goliath technology will be led by high value consumer appliance applications such as beauty products including hair straighteners and curling tongs, power tools, cameras, e-cigarettes and medical devices, which can also benefit from some of the unique properties of solid-state batteries.
The three Goliath projects, supported by £5.2 million grant funding to date, are enabling Ilika to interact with leading companies in the UK automotive sector. In the PowerDrive Line project, Ilika, as the lead partner, is working with Honda Europe and Ricardo to develop battery modules that can be charged in under 20 minutes. As part of a consortium led by McLaren Automotive, Ilika is participating in the Multi Optimal Solutions for Energy Storage Systems project to develop battery systems for performance cars. The consortium considers that current electric technology is not sufficiently mature for the demands of high performance cars due to high weight, range limitations and battery management challenges. Through the development of new materials for cells and a modular-designed battery, the consortium aims to deliver the advances it considers are needed to achieve improved levels of functionality and performance. Ilika's third project, Granite, for which it most recently received an award of funding from the Faraday Battery Challenge, is being led by Jaguar Land Rover and is designed to assess the compatibility of Ilika's process with established lithium-ion production techniques. The Goliath programme is closely aligned with UK government industrial strategy and is supported by government bodies tasked with encouraging the UK's EV industry, including the Faraday Battery Challenge.
In April 2021, Ilika announced it had partnered with Comau, part of the Fiat Group, and a world leader in the industrial automation field, to scale up Ilika's existing Goliath pre-pilot line and deliver a plant design for a Goliath manufacturing line at a mega-scale facility. The design study is being supported by the Advanced Propulsion Centre (APC) over the 12-month project. The project, which is led by Ilika, has two objectives, firstly to design the scale up of Ilika's existing Goliath pre-pilot line to increase production of solid-state cells from 1kWh per week to 10kWh per week until the development of a pilot line, targeted by Q1 2023 . Secondly, following the signing of a framework agreement with the BIC in September 2020 for the production of Goliath solid-state pouch cells, Comau will undertake a full study of Ilika's processes and deliver a plant design for a megawatt scale solid-state manufacturing line for ultimate installation at a facility such as the BIC. The target of this stage of scale-up will involve Ilika reaching 5 MWh per week by 2024.
£10.0 million of the net proceeds of the Placing are expected to be used to fund the development of Goliath technology through targeting and exceeding LIB equivalence around December 2022, £5.0 million of those net proceeds is expected to be invested in increasing the capacity of the Goliath pre-pilot line from 1kWh to 10kWh per week, targeted by Q1 2023. In addition, £2.0 million of those net proceeds will be used to strengthen the balance sheet and provide additional working capital and to support the Company's planned Goliath product development until mid-calendar year 2023.
Following product development of Goliath technology to LIB equivalence, the Company plans to further develop Goliath technology until manufacturing readiness in 2024 and the planned subsequent transfer of production to a mega-scale production partner facility (i.e. one that produces MWh per annum of cell capacity), such as the BIC, to help facilitate its manufacturing scale-up targeting a further 500x growth in production capacity from 10kWh to 5MWh per week, in line with the framework agreement entered into with the BIC. The Company will require further funding to facilitate the development of Goliath technology until manufacturing readiness and the planned move of production to a partner facility. Following LIB equivalence being reached, however, the Board believes there will be a range of funding options available to the Company, including strategic partners, government grants and additional equity financing.
Ilika is currently experiencing demand from OEM customers and their direct suppliers ("Tier 1") for prototype cells for evaluation. Ilika expects to generate revenue for the sale of evaluation samples from pilot line production, particularly for consumer appliance applications. Revenue is expected to ramp up significantly to c.£70 million per annum once Ilika's process is established at a mega-scale facility, initially from the sale of cells into consumer appliance applications, followed by the automotive sector. Assuming the transfer of Goliath production into a mega-scale production facility commences in 2024, annual revenues of £50 million from the consumer sector supplemented by an additional £20 million from the automotive sector are expected by the financial year to 30 April 2028. Further growth in revenue beyond that is expected from licensing. Ilika's forecast is made up of expected demand from a portfolio of around 62 OEMs and Tier 1 companies.''
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So i did a load of work that i was paid in Euros for. When i took job i was £35/40 a day better off on the amount. It was a 3 month job so not an insignificant amount.
Its sitting in a starling euro account at moment. Anyone care to have an educated guess as to if the euro will get stronger anytime soon or if i should cut my loses? Dont need the money really so happy to let it sit but dont want it to dwindle any lower.
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Anyone care to have an educated guess as to if the euro will get stronger anytime soon or if i should cut my loses?
No idea what will happen. Hedge your bets and convert half of it to sterling.
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No idea on the likely euro/pound relationship over next couple of years but the US dollar is odds on to weaken. If you don’t need the money perhaps keep it for a US trip..
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Personal recommends for a low cost broker?
I had an SVS account ...who went bust and eventually handed over to ITI - who seem quite amateurish and are now frozen having been told to sort themselves out. I won't be doing a ton of trades, so low management annual/charges and simple UI would be good. Other than that undemanding!
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I use II but they're not the cheapest if trading infrequently. Here's a comparison table.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/PbgbCEdEt4THOdiSAMKGU4cFrNnqHyVHcNUOPbi48KgPwFHQCe0Q7kY4rq8xS1aF7sodl0Asa25fXipFOkLFZkacNtr5MdJQSAe0eYX1OG04ekHAyZ0-aPfivYA6bECI4TiyDrQsWe-PgNtt1IotQWz7IntkThtYJ3MBviLkK3Ftl3Qj3ZCu2fDyvVzVI4pwAMfZB1cZycUJzeyrNb2s5dqApntTdZ9ovC5M2vVeIEaAoevObdLBaKxl9I2LquP7POt_hzFTSWeYneoa30R_ZaGab6oxKfHHJgbemxQv8zwqS0OqHrqDPkDmAEWLY0BDYgjsKyQIUPJ5whcmdYzdyuz7qhhc1faDo-q9AbVfJCylZ5bc1JdpvjY6x6VBPWDtq17NkDZhtVhs4M4vFh1qFdeOv9K0hiZPCx8LGsG5-FK3E8LLcVonbW8HVXVsU9MpzlgBZ_DqqWecOCpbcHbWK8yVrfZ1-N7SJqbkQrb72SbRqPHT9KgojmP6i4iH51RqSPuL18poTxuoBF-ku13ZuC5nYKEqUrh8qg7GwemC4-pnCMtFQlLHG_zOzZ3_8lZ2UeggCz1VRU7x7hP7nzUDQ-wjiIHcmhAYaQBMrvY2QIJy1v8fQzbtLDPuwQ4rM5K5kTjyOo6_sw39z9c4Y2nQCYIRdPOj7co8-Ff0E5Xf8bpTOrQqpF3RqXEywdSZCax-MfuelcZWl1pkWUPwgyiX3fIS=w532-h943-no?authuser=0)
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Thanks guys. Yeah think ill convert half and keep half for Spanish winters.
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I use II but they're not the cheapest if trading infrequently. Here's a comparison table.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/PbgbCEdEt4THOdiSAMKGU4cFrNnqHyVHcNUOPbi48KgPwFHQCe0Q7kY4rq8xS1aF7sodl0Asa25fXipFOkLFZkacNtr5MdJQSAe0eYX1OG04ekHAyZ0-aPfivYA6bECI4TiyDrQsWe-PgNtt1IotQWz7IntkThtYJ3MBviLkK3Ftl3Qj3ZCu2fDyvVzVI4pwAMfZB1cZycUJzeyrNb2s5dqApntTdZ9ovC5M2vVeIEaAoevObdLBaKxl9I2LquP7POt_hzFTSWeYneoa30R_ZaGab6oxKfHHJgbemxQv8zwqS0OqHrqDPkDmAEWLY0BDYgjsKyQIUPJ5whcmdYzdyuz7qhhc1faDo-q9AbVfJCylZ5bc1JdpvjY6x6VBPWDtq17NkDZhtVhs4M4vFh1qFdeOv9K0hiZPCx8LGsG5-FK3E8LLcVonbW8HVXVsU9MpzlgBZ_DqqWecOCpbcHbWK8yVrfZ1-N7SJqbkQrb72SbRqPHT9KgojmP6i4iH51RqSPuL18poTxuoBF-ku13ZuC5nYKEqUrh8qg7GwemC4-pnCMtFQlLHG_zOzZ3_8lZ2UeggCz1VRU7x7hP7nzUDQ-wjiIHcmhAYaQBMrvY2QIJy1v8fQzbtLDPuwQ4rM5K5kTjyOo6_sw39z9c4Y2nQCYIRdPOj7co8-Ff0E5Xf8bpTOrQqpF3RqXEywdSZCax-MfuelcZWl1pkWUPwgyiX3fIS=w532-h943-no?authuser=0)
Could you please sort the link - nothing displays for me. Or it might be me?!
Thanks
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Does the picture work for anyone else? (works for me on chrome)
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Does the picture work for anyone else? (works for me on chrome)
That's weird. I'm using Chrome but can't see it . :???:
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Looks like the pic is from Google photos or something like that? Might not have sharing turned on, or Google might be doing something to stop ppl embedding the image.
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Here’s a link to site with a handy comparison table if you scroll down.
https://www.koody.co/investing/compare-the-best-investment-platforms
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Got it, and thanks for covering for lazy googling skills :)
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Last 2 rounds of Filo drill results have led to a drop in price. What's going on? Results both good, but not mind blowing. Some expecting more and getting out? Big boys trying to push the price down to get access to better prices?
Or just a more general pull back across all areas?
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Patience. Just about every market globally had a big wobble yesterday, great companies dropped as well as duff ones. I think it was n.america’s worst single day in the market this year.
The quality of what filo have isn’t in any doubt. Have to correct the characterisation of the last two sets of results there. They’re definitely in the ‘mind-blowing’, rather than just the merely ‘good’ category. Hole 46 reported yesterday was Filo’s second best hole reported to date, and the Filo project is right up there with the very best copper/gold discoveries in the last 30 years. Expectations were sky-high around hole 46 and the timing was v.unfortunate to coincidence with all markets shitting themselves. If I wasn’t already fully invested here (six figures) then day’s like yesterday would be an ideal buying opportunity. There'll be many ups and downs between now and far higher share price value. All imo.
If needed to settle nerves, I can forward some realistic valuation calcs based on conservative estimates.
Essential viewing for filo investors here, recent interview with two of Lundin’s geologists following the recent breakthrough holes.
Discussing how the Filo/Jose Maria district was discovered.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T-kqb-OyV-U
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I wasn't getting to jittery (I've not got much skin in the game) was just more wanting to understand the dynamics at play.
So, again, cheers for the information.
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More essential viewing for Filo investors. An interview with two of the Lundin family, Adam and Jack. Adam is chairman of Filo.
Watch from 24mins - 35mins for discussion of the potential for a copper super-cycle due to the energy transition infrastructure requirement, Argentinian companies, and the discoveries at Filo especially. Amusing to see the edited-out part, and Jack's reaction, where Adam clearly slips some potentially market sensitive information about pending assays - likely hole 51 (a 1.5km step out hole pending).
The story of the Lundin family is interesting if you're a resource investor nerd. (first 15 mins of interview).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmOop9xWgbA
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Quick Sunday update on Filo and a couple of others.
Filo reported the last assays on Wednesday from its recent drill season. Drilling has ended for a short break and will resume year-round exploration from mid-August. The results from hole 51 extended the footprint by 750 metres. Future holes plan to extend it further still. This remains the most no-brainer hold you'll ever see in the high-risk exploration market. In the words of Lucas Lundin: ''“Filo del Sol is growing into one of the largest copper-gold-silver discoveries ever..”. This coming from Lucas Lundin who's seen most things in the last 40 years exploration and development of resources including multiple massive discoveries and sales to the majors. In a market where copper is going to be the new oil for the next 10-20 years. The current resource for Filo doesn't include any of the recent drilling, and is due to be updated around year end. I bought in at $2.98, $3.49 and $8.80. I'll be holding until $20+. Anyone who holds Filo should familiarise themselves with the Lassonde curve, which describes the typical price action of a company through the cycles of exploration/development/production. Filo are currently riding the 'exploration success' part of the steep first rise. Crap exploration companies have similar rises, based on hyped-up minor discoveries but quickly burn out and drop back again. Filo actually has the real thing.
Risks for Filo remain the Argentinian politics - there's a need to resolve limits on foreign companies taking corporate profits out of the country; a potential for higher tax levies as imposed by Chile and Peru (since watered down) to spread to Argentina; potential levels of arsenic in the sulphide resource; and (lesser risk) a capital raise required to fund exploration (Filo well funded but will require more by year end).
Catalysts will be a resolution of the corporate profits question - Lundin reportedly is in talks with Argentinian government this month. Metallurgy ongoing on the sulphide ore will give clarity on arsenic content.
Alphamin reported Q2 earnings, looking at a stellar Q3 and debt free. Also reported further exploration success. Tin price is barnstorming away to $35,000+ per ton. I've been in since .58c. Now breaking the .80c resistance. Holding to $1.10-20
Cornish Metals expected to be reporting the remaining holes for United Downs within the next two weeks. Looking forward to that pure copper intercept.
One I haven't mentioned much is Adriatic Metals (on LSE and ASX). Silver/zinc developer in Bosnia. I've held since 0.78p. I'm expecting a re-rate on commencement of construction of their Ruprice deposit. All permits in place, the bankable feasibility study is due end of this year. Well worth looking at especially if you see them dipping below current prices. They'll either begin construction in early 2022 and be in production within 12-18 months, or be bought out prior to construction by a mid-tier producer. Either way expect them to re-rate from current levels.
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Cornish Metals finally reported this morning on the remaining holes for United Downs. Short version - the grades and widths are not good enough to economically mine the lode they've drilled. Share price reacting accordingly. Happy now that I sold 50% around the recent high and took profits. If you were in it for a short-term win, then that day has now passed.. hope you sold near the recent high ;)
The long story is that the South Crofty project remains a viable mine and it's that which will underpin the share price going forwards (which will likely be lower than current as the market sells off). United Downs was the potential cherry on top/blockbuster for share price. (still could be, but risk just went up).
If you believe Cornish will go on to discover good grades of tin and/or copper from either deeper in United Downs (they were not drilling deep on this round of holes) and/or increase the resource size or improve economics of South Crofty then Cornish are still a good medium term hold. Still another 5 to 6 thousand metres of drilling to be done (approx 3,000m drilled to date), and in some new areas as per news of recent application for drilling to the south of Carn Brea.. So there are potential price catalysts over the next 12 months.
Tin price is on a sustained rip for sound reasons, this may help hype up the price of explorers such as Cornish - greater fool theory applies - along with the tin producers such as AFM, which has genuinely superb fundamental value. Copper price more uncertain which direction in the short term (12 months), but long term I've no doubts price will reflect high demand.
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Backed the proverbial truck up with LDG which following disposal of its sole investment is trading at 13.5p despite a declared 18.5p of cash per share. Best case is they swiftly wind up and return that cash to shareholders. Worst case is they spunk it away on a duff acquisition. However given their track record and especially the track record of the investment manager DBay frittering the cash away seems highly unlikely. Another potential outcome if they don’t wind up or make a large investment is a partial return of cash and the rest retained awaiting a suitable acquisition. Another way the value may be outed is if they start buying their own shares which enhances their value and bumps the share price up towards 18p fair value. Probably as good a downside protection as it gets and potential 30% upside one way or the other but hard to call the timescale.
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MMX as expected has announced a tender offer (https://investegate.co.uk/minds---machines-grp--mmx-/rns/tender-offer/202109100700053393L/) which they’ve priced at 9.6p per share for 1st Oct. You can currently pick shares up for about 9p so depending on dealing costs an easy 6% for a few weeks wait assuming the tender isn’t oversubscribed.
Risk that the tender is oversubscribed and you’re left with some residual shares they state a further return at a similar price once all winding up done which will be lengthy unless sold in advance but that’s likely to be below tender price. Residual shares will be bumped out on a delisting if held in ISA and also very difficult to sell if unlisted.
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Thought I'd share some info about a company in which I've been invested for around 18 months now but haven't really mentioned much about. Adriatic Metals are developing a couple of polymetallic projects in Bosnia (Vares) and Serbia (Raska). The projects will produce Silver/Zinc/Lead with a small amount of gold. This company has been very much under the radar in the UK (also listed in Aus) as they didn't list on the AIM but instead on the main market, thus missing out on all the idiotic AIM numpties pumping and dumping mining explorer shitcos and meme stocks. In absence of hype Adriatic have grown slowly and steadily, I'm presently up around 40%, with my average around 1.10
They recently released the definitive FS for the Bosnian mine development (Vares). Construction starts in October with cash flow starting late 2022/early 2023. The project is well known by those in the know as tier one with incredibly good economics, possibly the best looking economics out there for a development such as this - low capex (sub 200m) and an extremely quick return on capital of around 9 months. Adriatic will be finalising the finance and announcing the deal in the next few weeks - a potential price catalyst.
The Company are well-funded with around £20m and low dilution is expected as most finance is expected to be debt (that will be quickly repaid in the first 12 months of production) not equity. Once production starts the Vares mine will Bosnia's largest exporter, contributing 1% of Bosnia's GDP per annum.
The Serbian project is a couple years behind on the development curve, with much upside potential from further exploration.
Corporate presentation is here: https://www.adriaticmetals.com/downloads/corporate-presentations/adt-investor-presentation-august-2021-v5.pdf
Fair price based just on the Bosnian (Vares) project, excluding exploration upside and the Serbian project (Raska), is in the region of 50 - 100% from present share price. The markets tends to look 12-8 months ahead and free cash flow will begin around 18 months from now.
This project's slightly close to my heart as I served in Bosnia during the war in 1995. The Vares project is located very close to where I was located and I know the region. It's good to see the place develop. I think I'll probably take a return tour (of a different kind) around the area one day.
Thought I'd share this 1hr interview with the CEO Paul Cronin. I think it's an example of a very impressive CEO highlighting some of the positive aspects of the mining industry, as well as giving a good overview of the company and its projects. Also plenty of nods in there to other topics relevant to my investment thesis - localised/non China resources, ESG, tin and copper - Paul even mentions Filo and Alphamin :) and even mention of nickel the 'holy grail' (Centuaras Metals.. ahem..).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVtHDxnmNBQ&t=2524s
Other stuff - Meridian Mining hit a great step-out intercept and rose ~50% this week. Still a long way to go here. :)
Centuras Metals continue growing their Nickel Sulfide deposit with step-out discoveries announced this week.
Filo resumed drilling, expecting announcement in Sept/early Oct about corporate profits being allowed to leave Argentina.
GGP broke the long-term downtrend, PFS coming sometime between now and xmas.
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Pete, any thoughts on Aluminium Ion batteries?
Looked at this some more. An Australian company called Graphene Manufacturing Group listed on the Toronto exchange released news last week about their graphene aluminium-ion battery cells.. If they can scale this up it'd be very interesting. I've taken a small position, missed the recent big rise.
Overview: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltaylor/2021/05/13/ev-range-breakthrough-as-new-aluminum-ion-battery-charges-60-times-faster-than-lithium-ion/?sh=1b401886d287
Interview and next steps to market: http://www.kereport.com/2021/05/14/gmg-graphene-manufacturing-group-recent-graphene-aluminum-ion-battery-performance-data-and-the-next-steps-to-get-the-batteries-into-the-market/
Video released today on 'cleanerwatt': https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZp7BQnDPfE
Links to more detailed information can be found on the CEO.ca GMG board.. if you wade through the 'face-ripping' posts there are some links to good info.
Further to this story..
Sodium-ion could be the next big thing in batteries: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-13/the-next-best-electric-car-battery-is-here-and-it-s-sodium-ion-based?srnd=premium-europe
Apparently sodium-ion batts - an old tech, not as energy dense or able to hold charge as well as lithium-ion - can be made more competitive by layering two layers of graphene in the anodes instead of using graphite. If so then cheaper to produce viable sodium-ion EV batteries than Li-ion. The science behind it explained here in an article 12 months old: https://www.dw.com/en/the-batteries-of-the-future-sodium-instead-of-lithium/a-54707542
Possibly good for GMG..
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I love this.
'A hamster has been trading cryptocurrencies in a cage rigged to automatically buy and sell tokens since June - and it's currently outperforming the S&P 500':
A hamster named Mr. Goxx has been trading cryptocurrencies in a rigged box since June.
The hamster determines which crypto to buy or sell by running on a wheel and strolling through one of two tunnels.
Since it started trading on June 12, Goxx's crypto portfolio returned 24% as of Friday.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/hamster-trading-cryptocurrencies-rigged-cage-goxx-bitcoin-price-ether-doge-2021-9
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Just a bit of a lazy Sunday update on some market goings-on that might be interesting to some.
Uranium.. I only research and invest/trade in what interests me. I've never been interested Uranium so hadn't done any research and have no experience of this market. I'd been hearing snippets for years about various uranium companies from various places on the periphery while researching my other investments.. all seemed like a cult. This weekend I caught up with recent goings on. It seems it's a pretty interesting and pivotal time for this market. Sprott - a very well-known commodities investment management company - launched a physical uranium ETF in August. It's an unusual development because Sprott have basically disrupted the market for physical uranium by launching this fund and buying up the physical commodity as a speculative investment. The fund has $300m under management, soon to be another $500m fund-raising. There's talk of attempting to list on the NYSE, the fund is currently on the TSX - look for U.UN. A main US listing would further raise the profile and funding available to purchase physical uranium. Since sprott launched the fund the price of Uranium has soared. The energy companies would normally be the main buyers and now there's this speculative player, funded by financial institutional money, buying up the commodity and forcing the price higher. It looks and sounds like a classic speculative bubble in its early stages. What consequences that brings longer term for energy prices and the development of nuclear energy, who knows..
Anyway it's an interesting moment for this market, and I'll be making a small investment in a physical uranium ETF next week if it dips (Northshore Global Uranium Mining ETF - ticker URNM). This apparently is a better performing investment than the actual Sprott fund.
If anyone's interested in an overview of the recent developments this interview is good: https://silverchartist.com/sput_21631294069502
Elsewhere Meridian (MNO.TSXV) hit the jackpot on step-out drilling (sold half @ 92c for around 70% gain); Filo resumed drilling and listed on the TSX (formerly TSX.v), Argentinian government mining profits policy announcement still to come; Adriatic continue rising towards final financing deal for Vares; AFM continuing trend toward $1 (target $1.20); Centuaras Metals broke to $1.10 then dipped back to a dollar (target $1.20); GGP riding down to and reacting off the fib61.8 retracement of its all time high (bought more @ 16p after selling in high 20s); Illika and Trackwise languishing currently (although TWD look promising for another contract win); KEFI a total dog after failing yet again to progress its project. One I haven't mentioned is Polarean Imaging which I bought at .92 earlier this year, for the last year they've been awaiting the FDA's decision to approve the company's new MRI imaging tech (use of xenon gas for better imaging of lung damage among other uses). The FDA decision is due this Tuesday, if the decision is +ve then price will probably fly. One to watch!
Bought a little ARB @1.27 on Friday speculating that bitcoin will continue rising next week.
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Uranium has been an interesting watch on twitter - the Sprott launch particularly. A quick burn high for the the whole market and then the inevitable correction. Lots of profit for many.
As you say, there's a cultist feel to it, quite evangelical at times but it's all wrapped up in a commonsense enough premise.
The world needs clean nuclear energy.
As for bitcoin, I bought some this weekend.
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One I haven't mentioned is Polarean Imaging which I bought at .92 earlier this year, for the last year they've been awaiting the FDA's decision to approve the company's new MRI imaging tech (use of xenon gas for better imaging of lung damage among other uses). The FDA decision is due this Tuesday, if the decision is +ve then price will probably fly. One to watch!
Well the FDA made their decision yesterday. Ooof! Sucker punched! Not many were expecting an issue/delays. But it's a reminder of the risk of investing ahead of binary decisions. Overall the company is a good bet for long-term growth - a really good bet from this price! By long term that could still be as short as 6 months but more likely to now be another 12 months to FDA's decision. Good clear analysis of the decision here: https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/vadim-alexandre-discusses-the-complete-response-letter-received-by-polarean-from-the-fda-8b25185/
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What's a good approach to knowing when to take profits? I've made the mistake a few times holding out too long, getting greedy, and then being caught out post peak.
Currently got some ETH which will net 10% profit after fees, for a total of 4 days risk... It doesn't make up for previous losses, but it's nibbling away.
I've got some ETH2 staked, so I'll always (maybe always-always... :o :o ) have some skin in the game if it keeps on rising, and 5% interest forever.
Indicators seem too good for the next while to get out now, so I'm minded to hold for 20% and then maybe take 50% out.
Got £15 on nonsense SHIB which is now £37 two days later. :lol:
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I think as usual the answer is it depends! But I think taking profits is the wise approach if you're trading regularly. It's cliched but very true - making money in the stock market is quite easy but losing it is easier.
It depends on what you think you're investing in, over what timescale, what you know about the company and sector, what catalysts are up ahead and of course what your price target is. So for e.g. I opened a small position (1% of portfolio) in ARB last Friday on the theory that bitcoin is more likely to rise than to fall over the coming months to year end (based on some TA I did on the chart after reading northstar's take on the chart). My timescale isn't to year end, as I think btc is too volatile to hold for more than 4-6 weeks at a time* (or hold anything that relies on btc for price movement). Therefore if ARB rise 10-15% I'll be out completely.
Because ARB's only a small position (=small risk to overall portfolio value) I won't bother taking profits, I 'll accept the gain or loss and be selling all. But on larger positions I would take profits and let the momentum run. For e.g. earlier this year I mentioned I was in Cornish Metals. Entered at 10p with around 3% of portfolio, on the theory that exploration of United Downs would show economic grades and widths of tin/copper. Into the rise driven by excitement around the drilling I took profits at a 50% gain, and left the remainder in for the second round of drill assays from united downs. Second round of assays came back disappointing and I sold the remainder the same week for something like 25% profit.
Meridian Mining (5% of portfolio), sold 50% of holding @ 92c after buying in at 55c. Leaving the remainder for the longer term as they're still in the exciting part of developing Cabacal.
GGP, 2000% gain, sold 50% for profit, kept remainder as I know long-term it's as good a resource as any explorer will ever find and it's going to be either bought out or produce a lot of profit for GGP. In fact I added a big chunk more at 16p last week based on my TA. Happy investor.
Filo, I'll be taking profits at between $15 - 20. Haven't sold any yet despite triple digits % gain. The resource is too good to trim too early, another GGP in the making.
AFM, Centuras, I'll be taking small chunks for big profit margin, but leaving most in for the next 12 months. Partly becuase AFM have just announced becoming debt-free and huge free cash flow going forward, and will be paying a dividend. Partly because they're both in my non-ISA account and selling too much of them would be a big CGT bill.
Polarean was a classic where I think I should have taken some profit at a 10-15% gain a couple of days before the FDA decision - binary event. But it's a small part of my portfolio and because I don't need the money right now and I believe long term they'll huge, I can accept the gut punch for now. If it was a total dog then I'd sell at a loss.
Various others I could list currently either up or down.
It's a combo of knowing the company, so you can have a fair idea of whether long term gain is worth the short term pain of not taking profits (or risk of pain). Or knowing that you're speculating short term and that profits should be grabbed when they can.
Alternatively there are simple formulas to follow where you don't even make any attempt to research fundamentals, you just automatically sell on x% profit because that's the formula you follow. A lot depends on personality I think. I like getting into the weeds of things and I'm also very patient. I'm also quite low in anxiety - I can hold long term through 50% losses without it disrupting my inner peace provided I believe in my research. I'm naturally a mid to long term holder. But I can be dispassionate on short-term trading too, it just takes a bit more mental energy and if you're not very good at the TA side of things it's a timeframe that usually results in loses if you try to do a lot of it.
Taking an honest look at your trading history and see whether or not you're winning overall is essential. If you're not winning then something needs to change. Could be that you need to take profits more often and be les greedy. Conversely, no one ever made a 2000% gain by taking profits early. But then which is more likely..
* I'm aware that btc would have (and might still) made a super long term investment. I'm long term already on other things however.
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I should also add. A major market correction also has to be a consideration. This is where knowing what you're investing in helps. Some of my investments I'd hold through a major correction because cream rises quickly. Some others I'm fully aware would get taken to the cleaners and never return in a major correction. Know which is which. And keeping cash spare to take advantage of a major correction is a low stress way to profit from the opportunity.
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GGP, In fact I added a big chunk more at 16p last week based on my TA. Happy investor
Good call with your TA there Pete - 25% yesterday and another 9% within minutes of opening today.
TA can be some good wizard voodoo when the fundamentals are right.
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Yeah I'm pleased with my TA on GGP. The beauty of TA is as you say combining it with understanding the fundamentals. One without the other is a bit too speculative for my liking (although I still do it). I've obviously followed GGP for a long time and know the fundamentals of their resource inside out. I think that makes it easier for me to use TA to spot chart patterns around news and future catalysts.
But this summer I made an effort to learn more TA skills and apply it more to my trading. I made the charts below for GGP sometime around Sept 27th, because I'd spotted 4 bullish indicators aligning towards a decision point around now.
In the charts below there are 4 bullish indicators:
1. Bullish divergence on the weekly macd histogram (marked by straight line). The divergence hadn't confirmed, confirmation required the weekly histogram to turn positive, or just less negative. It turned positive this week ;)
2. Descending wedge pattern on weekly/daily. Price broke out of the pattern and hadn't fallen back in. Instead it was riding along the top of the descending wedge boundary.
3. Fibonacci 61.8% retracement from the swing high 38p is 15.8p. The 61.8 level is a strong level of resistance.
4. Arc support pattern forming following the fall from the swing high. Multiple touch points on left. Bottom of the arc corresponds to Fib 61.8 level and also to the apex of the descending bullish wedge. Arc patterns are hard to draw accurately until they start forming touch points on the middle and right. So far it's acting accurately but we'll see how it develops with touch points on right.
Any one of those signals by themselves is not meaningful. To have all 4 signals together, pointing to a moment in time when the Havieron PFS is due to be released and when the technical picture for gold long term suggests a near-term reversal of the recent gold price downtrend.. adds up to quite a compelling combination of bullish signals that suggests a strong probability the price will react higher from a certain decision point.
I post this because some here may find the TA side of things interesting. Also because a while back some people (since departed) were saying charting and TA is 'reading tea-leaves'. I know why they think this, but they don't know enough about what they're talking about to have an informed opinion. It isn't voodoo at all, it's just learning to spot where the probabilities are more in favour than against. Nothing is guaranteed, it's just more or less probable. As anyone can learn if they put their mind to learning the subject.
Sept 27th
Daily
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/gvObkxa7RDPmtvG873I2owZ7hg-Igi5eDA1JvF49PlkPmOQ90XwXlyn7Wd9FC_1Z1xuQevYTKEitUIgd8fUTdrEvthJJS8DJUuroqb1QPaZFz9Vh3jR2QJkepHzAP_4-o_tI5b3Gz_r-OHXtvd0QZE-wXjlWmHdlZD3zVMlDEoTwW9svpOkQFXMiJx-fyagzn0BAw6crRMYi8P2giXpgSDH_sTg0mVC328d8Z40LVRl1-dwQ2E4teKcyhYSvysZUVIVTHaUAX-Dis0s57SfEGaShgIiUvStYPiPdMAAd05xOtQOLzuJ5EpM-6skJF0uIb0OmGKpNSUGynGqONy7acNELLq5Dkiyua9CJnTHAFD1RkDxgs3Sann3a37p1BxOExt5XLB7c_-CR2vEz-IH4IV_ib5sFDGm8gjxhmMh5OJ1GNHG7RIbN8VsqdU60tzlAzah8JsHABMbzEaj-of8kOIgqaN2Wq2fGI9IO6cO5GVxsDwm5pa2OzP38g6nLd-18C9gCueJzc9qi80OzxazfDtKH8EjHmO8npZ_vnedP6fvMoCPEfOXI32kZVGlnbDL4mHroQ9UHeRUu35B7PPgi3WsGm7OlXAaNTnk7DpV9oa1eWwOPM9SZkbWuSN7Ad9eFSHXUVDD2945ZSXaTg0vw1I4RlU8nugiVj8RspQajKkS42U8JjV9r4in5zTPpyvqaVMyMCb76PdTd9ZXvlnCwZSBg=w1280-h739-no?authuser=0)
Weekly
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/Kft0dK3Phhx0DNrLzHIBhAnrF0LCNm3rTwKaQbBnMCvD7IKNniEmTo85wCMEPLo8wTJ_-ewFpXAaF1I0YQHwxG5bhFrwrFsvSYFWLyQiqsGj1sPoiwCNHt7dPCqfFr64qgGyfrjUoJdssf-I39gAG0nwIwAWS1Nz_0u1FFFifGWkm2-aMh14RkaqF0PfM5Nr8gtie9pwaIyXaKrfFaU9-XJKEWsQzb8w5QvjV7-PGn0KWjccJqAWmQGdWxbACe5y7DNFA3J5v_cKz0qeGRvsQNjzLL4vfV13suw2uguIQ-gtPF-pvtpvdffwZuT1qgfK3MJaihGIz0i8i_Ej3Cy2MytEVENi_95ZTOCyOLIGwYVNDUK4dyrN3AFmZd17eGYiduAz9xMvGc1Yfb3G8y3rxpbxXl8p9u3WAXUFZ8kIVKJs8bqePm1s9ctlPfGctovbT2guHmyDBiKYghV3VNbkYdgz8F-jSl0FjpijJD0khgv-OG694bBiehvAnNcXfnAI6ZNlZXNmqex-_bb4VCvY0v0lj06U50Fzh1KQi0r-r0mZ_eV3Y0z5dsa9F3XFyPK0SSeMnh61oiJc5PZgb52KfMr7q6lABG4byPQkHAyeMQYGHL2H9HCUzdKt7cnzPJS2cuBCgeZuJDKXZ6AjWGoMbVxBSMBNW2sOrUNe7Bev9xEnYYwnB3hIWxlZrfbyl42eh4h6NVTCEYKBnaHpB2aeOW8B=w1280-h700-no?authuser=0)
Daily zoomed in
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/x2kw8FNnpm74jPdHsacqvlH4NjrGOR-vDBs7sHotV8mbhlqOn3TBXIq4n_Cryzphp0ASdJwVbrMtRB5xIn7xos3k0-lKjp8Ld8CkYD7-GO388G4_KSv2MPnr8kkXBCINHc6EbLrsOJMnKOksbCEmLNxFgvMYEoKJLyKrTJDPTIdcCV0LswlPuT58lbHI5fvxLWMoEGjtVwKGypOwKQkB9j3hjhVBVMEQH2clqenC9S-V9nEGBUzgjQDaaXngKBsSiauFHB5rpTcbdUiiFCd9BzJCgSuM49gfDg_grlSSJMEYExQbbhS_C_sLHkI2X0GkXcNP64SaG0JaZYEs1pkx1frckcVU_ZwbhbKd3AKPr-2tReyQVbVuukpEq1zXcRdfUPe5atJ3c5lmrur2BreYkvejJj5tI61VbTNFnM0c70TFvownCpp34pEddgV6zyO_IhmuCTwhOOszdtON_8aHOkKAGOeOELKXVx-2UYxRJrV5GrgtnjGld-9IG1aht6CD6QQK4975JrHrPVEgOvUug148eDF89RYGDHTzehC82yz_AKaaB866LurLlJJ5-5o_DXCH8cMBsFa-wkVQW1pTy4t3QNGXwtLzReZs8IZ79Sb5byyEiP2XkgiM2JhgRcssmBwnVOmC1KyL8-DuLhsQ0liiQTyiA9B0EQwgYwWXtrxWmCRzf54cGx5SBoPkI9jXp3yTmKIENs2BaOd9R0cIFI8L=w1280-h703-no?authuser=0)
Today
Daily
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/WU14BAjMYBm4s3HWppHI0uWuWBwBqcS3AlSKwNu940oDiax57q-NqNwBWhYcraH7fCyGAvNfMd9h9cFNOgJj3PjEOgShIoOB53KqSMfi6pM6FRMWUQHhAoxZ6j5K7I4JGDaLX3zZXDE8RWs_tZ2ZJmjw7ddQOwWbw0rWlhq0ThYJ2L0pf3_pCbytMHHnCH9w7m57ALiMjtA6gkv2Kx4hG-nICBlFOZlcRr3yoPZlGNdaZ8XpN17hxe1jBhU28cjbrcp5qj0ByLMskeVVrSNBuCSBjYbs4293I2FD3FwqQbUmozqxPloN-uJ7TyKlcaqaDupLM1Z4HL7wTjSFZ2uqf608q1dgLD83XwzWVC967vVLOryW0XjalVFTJ-dLm2IDfscWjMui1jXtEM0L3JAcfnQDcA87PqS_WBTrVQaZcFJ6YFrP_nPL2g9FJHS0vrhKHWzVgS3XVc6CwLbov7khh0ndeO3y4fMP2P-OOc2p4jWqEz6yzd1bE-EzXIswJ8VxEYjfYpSfXxD1y4a5oYRfQ4FfGNmUOGHIT3gBRYq9Xx9PwAJB9oKbl5EpxXqSe-I6FUkhgN-PN8cQaBepE2mOW-v-qUAhde63o_vwp1T1et5Odruov9tSzUKXkPdJkm8vDlzy0zBM_7MR9sR05iDwrby8yIfgc8gICiLeP-DcAchTBS-4w0Vy0mw5FxsmR33Zoj9d2iQ-Y_aiV6b7lO3MP-Cp=w1539-h839-no?authuser=0)
Weekly
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/DnADLQxe9vUmZM1oANC3MQ9utSCKnsbwYIK2rBGZ90dnAL-AwAHZ68TKeF2iGsj5oZNMNRvj0cuwAGVlcSBIQEh0neo4oqKYN5mEkteXHZFr9JM55JppbKW_RkmKeSjWdZlPYHHzGtU2Uo4h7XP7hqfNxPPOEq-lyHxH-BeHB2iYMGn-Obax6tGzdT_XFzJOQXLE4Vl4BnTm1L13Y1Zf1jZjtMq_FWXljmx6Pu3QIcs7pu-vTBzkz2idUb5CVnOoROWYpIvY3wOUK801noqOekO_EaQDIupBbVz6IvRhMJeAoQJ20hU0CYqlrLMfhh91EcPYRKcVRv2n83GxW0mNsb7DvHVhdrbAfdmoT2met8sqvhwv98HkuA5HguX_AfcuPVHu4eMujhcY2DMgQKu4UryEf9GaXvfji7zXJu__F6GEmHWnst3-nK00z9V_8vo5ipjNjTAbHGEtq4aUg4x7bzi7ibAfcydGXE83fgYUARtNrIp0ZfOYNKs_ZB3uIIpgf5PnlZs-9GrJ8aCS5ISC3tm0pE55SSJqRAbT5mdUlXrXybn4WCbxzwgd3QcdA1R7gKgbjxFTLSF0Dy_HYeEX0dIli-Isg65w3Df4WW2YCjiCQuqc4farxgqmLVqcQhfUbaFP401aDv3J8kVESuC6g93dWD3NWqNCGqQrB627hnbQw5vNsSC_ybFSOuKSE2OaZ2y9xe9_ATKGCLZOmVXuywL7=w1539-h841-no?authuser=0)
Based on the Sept 27th chart I bought 183k shares for 16.3p, based on thinking it had bottomed due to the TA. Sold them into the rise today for 22.4p for a nice 6-figure profit in a week (still hold 1.4m shares as it's a long-term keeper).
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Yeah, the arc seems the hardest thing to get right and I guess you'll redraw depending on what's announced? I have no idea how it works.
I've a good friend who's only used TA and only on juniors for a while now, no DD at all and he says the arc causes him the most trouble.
His biggest gain this year was Kodal, pure TA and he was out just before it started heading down properly.
Buying in is definitely my issue, well, the timing of it. Normally too early or too late and my thinking is that TA is the biggest help there. Not a problem if you're long term tho.
I've had money in the stock market one way or another since the mid nineties but it's only this summer I've been doing my own thing.
Yesterday was a green day across the board, apart from one etf, and EMO and GGP made it a good day.
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I hear you. Although buying a year early is fine if you've the patience and funds. Buying a day late is far worse!
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I hear you. Although buying a year early is fine if you've the patience and funds. Buying a day late is far worse!
Precisely.
I'm also it seems poor at buying the dip when I already own something that's down. Happy to sit with a big drop but not keen to put more money in despite knowing the fundamentals are good. I think that's were TA would help me, providing the necessary nudge to average down.
The bitcoin I bought on Sunday was purely down to said friend's TA and that's up 10%.
TA is something else to read up on I guess.
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Yeah, the arc seems the hardest thing to get right and I guess you'll redraw depending on what's announced? I have no idea how it works.
Not redraw no. That would be tail wagging dog.
The price action defines the arc, not the other way around. If price breaks through the arc then the arc fails, and the probability it was suggesting has turned out not to be the reality.
Arcs *can* be stretched to accommodate revised data, the left-hand touch points suggest the formation of an arc of probability, the middle and right-hand touch points confirm that probability is playing out in reality.
As is currently happening with Bitcoin, another arc pattern in play.
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Yeah, the arc seems the hardest thing to get right and I guess you'll redraw depending on what's announced? I have no idea how it works.
Not redraw no. That would be tail wagging dog.
The price action defines the arc, not the other way around. If price breaks through the arc then the arc fails, and the probability it was suggesting has turned out not to be the reality.
Arcs *can* be stretched to accommodate revised data, the left-hand touch points suggest the formation of an arc of probability, the middle and right-hand touch points confirm that probability is playing out in reality.
As is currently happening with Bitcoin, another arc pattern in play.
Cheers Pete for the explanation - I'd wrongly assumed that the two outer actions would always adjust the arc.
Definitely on the to do and understand list 😜
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Sept 27th
Daily
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/gvObkxa7RDPmtvG873I2owZ7hg-Igi5eDA1JvF49PlkPmOQ90XwXlyn7Wd9FC_1Z1xuQevYTKEitUIgd8fUTdrEvthJJS8DJUuroqb1QPaZFz9Vh3jR2QJkepHzAP_4-o_tI5b3Gz_r-OHXtvd0QZE-wXjlWmHdlZD3zVMlDEoTwW9svpOkQFXMiJx-fyagzn0BAw6crRMYi8P2giXpgSDH_sTg0mVC328d8Z40LVRl1-dwQ2E4teKcyhYSvysZUVIVTHaUAX-Dis0s57SfEGaShgIiUvStYPiPdMAAd05xOtQOLzuJ5EpM-6skJF0uIb0OmGKpNSUGynGqONy7acNELLq5Dkiyua9CJnTHAFD1RkDxgs3Sann3a37p1BxOExt5XLB7c_-CR2vEz-IH4IV_ib5sFDGm8gjxhmMh5OJ1GNHG7RIbN8VsqdU60tzlAzah8JsHABMbzEaj-of8kOIgqaN2Wq2fGI9IO6cO5GVxsDwm5pa2OzP38g6nLd-18C9gCueJzc9qi80OzxazfDtKH8EjHmO8npZ_vnedP6fvMoCPEfOXI32kZVGlnbDL4mHroQ9UHeRUu35B7PPgi3WsGm7OlXAaNTnk7DpV9oa1eWwOPM9SZkbWuSN7Ad9eFSHXUVDD2945ZSXaTg0vw1I4RlU8nugiVj8RspQajKkS42U8JjV9r4in5zTPpyvqaVMyMCb76PdTd9ZXvlnCwZSBg=w1280-h739-no?authuser=0)
Weekly
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/Kft0dK3Phhx0DNrLzHIBhAnrF0LCNm3rTwKaQbBnMCvD7IKNniEmTo85wCMEPLo8wTJ_-ewFpXAaF1I0YQHwxG5bhFrwrFsvSYFWLyQiqsGj1sPoiwCNHt7dPCqfFr64qgGyfrjUoJdssf-I39gAG0nwIwAWS1Nz_0u1FFFifGWkm2-aMh14RkaqF0PfM5Nr8gtie9pwaIyXaKrfFaU9-XJKEWsQzb8w5QvjV7-PGn0KWjccJqAWmQGdWxbACe5y7DNFA3J5v_cKz0qeGRvsQNjzLL4vfV13suw2uguIQ-gtPF-pvtpvdffwZuT1qgfK3MJaihGIz0i8i_Ej3Cy2MytEVENi_95ZTOCyOLIGwYVNDUK4dyrN3AFmZd17eGYiduAz9xMvGc1Yfb3G8y3rxpbxXl8p9u3WAXUFZ8kIVKJs8bqePm1s9ctlPfGctovbT2guHmyDBiKYghV3VNbkYdgz8F-jSl0FjpijJD0khgv-OG694bBiehvAnNcXfnAI6ZNlZXNmqex-_bb4VCvY0v0lj06U50Fzh1KQi0r-r0mZ_eV3Y0z5dsa9F3XFyPK0SSeMnh61oiJc5PZgb52KfMr7q6lABG4byPQkHAyeMQYGHL2H9HCUzdKt7cnzPJS2cuBCgeZuJDKXZ6AjWGoMbVxBSMBNW2sOrUNe7Bev9xEnYYwnB3hIWxlZrfbyl42eh4h6NVTCEYKBnaHpB2aeOW8B=w1280-h700-no?authuser=0)
Daily zoomed in
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/x2kw8FNnpm74jPdHsacqvlH4NjrGOR-vDBs7sHotV8mbhlqOn3TBXIq4n_Cryzphp0ASdJwVbrMtRB5xIn7xos3k0-lKjp8Ld8CkYD7-GO388G4_KSv2MPnr8kkXBCINHc6EbLrsOJMnKOksbCEmLNxFgvMYEoKJLyKrTJDPTIdcCV0LswlPuT58lbHI5fvxLWMoEGjtVwKGypOwKQkB9j3hjhVBVMEQH2clqenC9S-V9nEGBUzgjQDaaXngKBsSiauFHB5rpTcbdUiiFCd9BzJCgSuM49gfDg_grlSSJMEYExQbbhS_C_sLHkI2X0GkXcNP64SaG0JaZYEs1pkx1frckcVU_ZwbhbKd3AKPr-2tReyQVbVuukpEq1zXcRdfUPe5atJ3c5lmrur2BreYkvejJj5tI61VbTNFnM0c70TFvownCpp34pEddgV6zyO_IhmuCTwhOOszdtON_8aHOkKAGOeOELKXVx-2UYxRJrV5GrgtnjGld-9IG1aht6CD6QQK4975JrHrPVEgOvUug148eDF89RYGDHTzehC82yz_AKaaB866LurLlJJ5-5o_DXCH8cMBsFa-wkVQW1pTy4t3QNGXwtLzReZs8IZ79Sb5byyEiP2XkgiM2JhgRcssmBwnVOmC1KyL8-DuLhsQ0liiQTyiA9B0EQwgYwWXtrxWmCRzf54cGx5SBoPkI9jXp3yTmKIENs2BaOd9R0cIFI8L=w1280-h703-no?authuser=0)
Today
Daily
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/WU14BAjMYBm4s3HWppHI0uWuWBwBqcS3AlSKwNu940oDiax57q-NqNwBWhYcraH7fCyGAvNfMd9h9cFNOgJj3PjEOgShIoOB53KqSMfi6pM6FRMWUQHhAoxZ6j5K7I4JGDaLX3zZXDE8RWs_tZ2ZJmjw7ddQOwWbw0rWlhq0ThYJ2L0pf3_pCbytMHHnCH9w7m57ALiMjtA6gkv2Kx4hG-nICBlFOZlcRr3yoPZlGNdaZ8XpN17hxe1jBhU28cjbrcp5qj0ByLMskeVVrSNBuCSBjYbs4293I2FD3FwqQbUmozqxPloN-uJ7TyKlcaqaDupLM1Z4HL7wTjSFZ2uqf608q1dgLD83XwzWVC967vVLOryW0XjalVFTJ-dLm2IDfscWjMui1jXtEM0L3JAcfnQDcA87PqS_WBTrVQaZcFJ6YFrP_nPL2g9FJHS0vrhKHWzVgS3XVc6CwLbov7khh0ndeO3y4fMP2P-OOc2p4jWqEz6yzd1bE-EzXIswJ8VxEYjfYpSfXxD1y4a5oYRfQ4FfGNmUOGHIT3gBRYq9Xx9PwAJB9oKbl5EpxXqSe-I6FUkhgN-PN8cQaBepE2mOW-v-qUAhde63o_vwp1T1et5Odruov9tSzUKXkPdJkm8vDlzy0zBM_7MR9sR05iDwrby8yIfgc8gICiLeP-DcAchTBS-4w0Vy0mw5FxsmR33Zoj9d2iQ-Y_aiV6b7lO3MP-Cp=w1539-h839-no?authuser=0)
Weekly
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/DnADLQxe9vUmZM1oANC3MQ9utSCKnsbwYIK2rBGZ90dnAL-AwAHZ68TKeF2iGsj5oZNMNRvj0cuwAGVlcSBIQEh0neo4oqKYN5mEkteXHZFr9JM55JppbKW_RkmKeSjWdZlPYHHzGtU2Uo4h7XP7hqfNxPPOEq-lyHxH-BeHB2iYMGn-Obax6tGzdT_XFzJOQXLE4Vl4BnTm1L13Y1Zf1jZjtMq_FWXljmx6Pu3QIcs7pu-vTBzkz2idUb5CVnOoROWYpIvY3wOUK801noqOekO_EaQDIupBbVz6IvRhMJeAoQJ20hU0CYqlrLMfhh91EcPYRKcVRv2n83GxW0mNsb7DvHVhdrbAfdmoT2met8sqvhwv98HkuA5HguX_AfcuPVHu4eMujhcY2DMgQKu4UryEf9GaXvfji7zXJu__F6GEmHWnst3-nK00z9V_8vo5ipjNjTAbHGEtq4aUg4x7bzi7ibAfcydGXE83fgYUARtNrIp0ZfOYNKs_ZB3uIIpgf5PnlZs-9GrJ8aCS5ISC3tm0pE55SSJqRAbT5mdUlXrXybn4WCbxzwgd3QcdA1R7gKgbjxFTLSF0Dy_HYeEX0dIli-Isg65w3Df4WW2YCjiCQuqc4farxgqmLVqcQhfUbaFP401aDv3J8kVESuC6g93dWD3NWqNCGqQrB627hnbQw5vNsSC_ybFSOuKSE2OaZ2y9xe9_ATKGCLZOmVXuywL7=w1539-h841-no?authuser=0)
@petejh Is it just me that can't see the images/charts you posted?
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I don't know.. they show up on mine. Anyone else?
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I don't know.. they show up on mine. Anyone else?
Not for me. Looks like they might be hosted on Google photos or something? You've probably got permission to see them Pete, where other people don't. You could try a free image hosting service like https://m.imgur.com/
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I don't know.. they show up on mine. Anyone else?
Show up on safari on my phone but not on chrome on laptop 🤔
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Initially I saw them in Google photos but now, as a small picture on my phone.
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Hopefully these should work.
The 4 bullish TA signals are in my post above.
Sept 27th
Daily
(https://i.imgur.com/0o3X9iA.jpg)
Weekly
(https://i.imgur.com/qQuKqMW.jpg)
Daily zoomed in
(https://i.imgur.com/UsovJia.png)
Oct 8th
Daily
(https://i.imgur.com/CnTndRw.png)
Weekly
(https://i.imgur.com/8NihOTD.png)
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@petejh Thanks a lot. Much appreciated.
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Noticed that Cornish spiked a few days ago back up above 15p, pushing back towards the 16p region it occupied briefly earlier in the year. Happened the day they announced a new non exec appointment, although there could be something else behind it.
Having topped up in July and then been on the wrong side of the falls in August it's nice to see it back up again.
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Noticed that Cornish spiked a few days ago back up above 15p, pushing back towards the 16p region it occupied briefly earlier in the year. Happened the day they announced a new non exec appointment, although there could be something else behind it.
Having topped up in July and then been on the wrong side of the falls in August it's nice to see it back up again.
Damn, I shouldn’t have cut my losses :lol:
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Noticed that Cornish spiked a few days ago back up above 15p, pushing back towards the 16p region it occupied briefly earlier in the year. Happened the day they announced a new non exec appointment, although there could be something else behind it.
Having topped up in July and then been on the wrong side of the falls in August it's nice to see it back up again.
The rise also coincides with a well-regarded commodities fintwit guy giving a lot of love for Cornish as one of three investable tin plays.
My opinion on Cornish is that they're the least likely of the three main plays on tin to do well over the long term. The other two being Alphamin and MetalsX.
AFM and MLX are both producers. Tin price has rocketed for 18 months, is still rocketing, and shows little sign of going back down over the next 12-18 months due to fundamental issues in the supply chain from Malaysian and Indonesian producers to processors and Chinese smelters. The producers have turned into huge cash generating machines. AFM especially.
Cornish is an explorer without any cashflow, and is rising from what I can tell partly on hype associated with tin's bull market. I bought Cornish in early 2021 on the hope that their second project, United Downs, would prove to be another economic deposit to compliment South Crofty. Drilling results released to date hasn't shown this so I sold (at ~50% profit). South Crofty is currently being dewatered and this will take best part of another 12 months and then follows a large capex investment to re-open the historic mine. The net present value of South Crofty alone doesn't justify the share price of Cornish afaik. They need United Downs or a.n.other good deposit to raise the net asset value.
Positives are the UK government getting involved in incentivising national projects such as Cornish's. Also that Cornish have exposure to copper in their mines.
I'd be cautious with Cornish. Of any commodities investment, the explorers have the potential to rise the most dramatically on any hint of a good hit. They'll also benefit from bullish sentiment in the commodity they're exploring for. However they're typically pop and drop stories unless the deposit is off the scale world class (Filo, GGP. Possibly also Meridian but unsure yet).
All that said I stopped following Cornish closely after I sold so don't know the latest rumours.
High risk high reward.
All just imo.
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That's interesting stuff Pete, cheers. I've yet to decide what to do about it, but your comments about it being partly driven by hype had echoes with some of what I was thinking - prior to the point about fintwit I had been thinking that the appointment of a non exec seemed pretty weak grounds for a big move in share price and that this might be froth - worth taking the opportunity to cash out on given as you say the United project didn't seem to come through as people had hoped. Need to have a think once I've got some free time.
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A few big jumps in Filo recently. Any news that I’m missing other than the listing on a different stock exchange and a new director appointed today.
For some reason it was removed from ISA view on HL for a while so I stoped checking it. Nice to see it 5% up compared to me being 25% down not that long ago!
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Mostly just that they resumed drilling following the 6 weeks lay-off over August/Sept while they winterised the exploration camp. Investors taking a position in anticipation. This next round of drilling will be year-round now that Filo know they have their teeth into the best new copper discovery in a generation to prove up. Filo say the first 3 drills will be centred around hole 41 from last season - the hole that discovered a high grade feeder zone to the copper porphyry and which sent the price parabolic. Expect result from these 3 holes by mid-November.
Price rise also due to basics of investor demand. Multiple brokerages and investment banks now with analyst coverage of Filo, all have a 12-month share price target of between $13 and $20. Breakdown of different banks:
National Bank C$12.75
BMO C$13.00
Cormark C$13.00
Stifel C$13.00
PI Financial C$13.50
Scotia C$13.50
Canaccord C$15.00
SpareBank C$16.80
Haywood C$20.00
The latest broker note was yesterday from Norwegian bank Sparebank, target of $16.80. The note available to read here: https://www.docdroid.net/LR1EHmp/211015-sb1m-mining-fil-october-update-pdf
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Oh and the other news investors are positioning ahead for is the expected announcement on a 'fiscal stability' agreement between the Argentinian government and major mining companies with projects in country. Currently there's uncertainty to what extent the gov will incentivise mining projects through taxation. Announcement will be any time between today and early 2022. Expectation is a positive agreement (but nothing is guaranteed). If positive then it will be a catalyst for Filo price, as well as the other nearby projects Josemaria and Los Helados.
One other catalyst to watch for is a forthcoming decision on environmental permit for development of Lundn's Josemaria copper/gold project, nearby to Filo del Sol. Josemaria is further advanced towards construction and its processing plant will be used to process Filo's ore, lowering initial capex costs to mine Filo. Environmental permit a crucial stage for them to clear.
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Nice to see it 5% up compared to me being 25% down not that long ago!
I managed to average down before the current rises, happy I did now.
Filo is calm compared to some mining stocks. Three weeks ago I was 38% down on one stock and now I'm 38% up on it! Not for the fainthearted.
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Filo seems to be on a steady gain just now. I bought some more on a dip, but the dip kept dipping... Didn't have any spare / willingness to increase my holding when it was really low, but sitting on 13% just now, which nicely offsets some of my other poor picks...
One was a genuinely poor pick, and the info was there - I just didn't do enough research / understand (TPIC renewables). The other is just a bit snoozy and was maybe overbought when I got in (Hyundai), but the fundamentals seem ok so it's probably not worth ditching (went for the higher ESG rating). The final one is a total punt, that's currently down a bit but I'll hodl a bit longer - Arrival EV. They have got a very unique manufacturing model, which if successful could be an interesting market disruptor. Or it'll tank... Just wish I could be buying in now, and not when I did haha.
Learning lesson was - probably worth tracking / watching some picks for a while to see how they perform before actually stumping any cash.
Generally my funds seem to be doing well, so that's nice. Even the Asia focussed ones have rebounded after the scares last month. I'm quite glad I put 85%+ of my portfolio in the hands of people who know what they're doing. ;)
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Yep Filo is as banker a share as any commodities explorer could be. Exciting times ahead between now and new year (and far beyond).
The final one is a total punt, that's currently down a bit but I'll hodl a bit longer - Arrival EV. They have got a very unique manufacturing model, which if successful could be an interesting market disruptor. Or it'll tank... Just wish I could be buying in now, and not when I did haha.
Arrival could be a good hold. I'm invested in Trackwise Designs who won a contract with Arrival to manufacture the lightweight printed wiring harnesses which will be used in Arrival van's battery packs. Interesting concept with Arrival building micro factories and using pre-coloured body parts made from lightweight plastic to reduce costs from paint shops. Next year should be interesting as they begin production in UK.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/957564/arrival-reports-strong-demand-for-electric-vans-and-buses-despite-delayed-trials-957564.html
Learning lesson was - probably worth tracking / watching some picks for a while to see how they perform before actually stumping any cash.
This is where some very basic charting comes in very useful to take out the FOMO and time entry/exit based on the pattern. Companies always dip and rise around a mean. A useful basic tool for getting in on a rising share is to use the 8, 21, 50 and 200-day moving averages. Depending on how strong a trend is the price will always revert to one (or all) of these MAs. i.e. a strong uptrend might only bounce off the 8MA before continuing upwards. Eventually though everything comes back down. Worth looking at both daily and weekly timescales as it helps to keep things in perspective.
Look at the chart for FILO for example. It's rocketed up on the discovery of the extent of the sulphides beneath the oxide cap, and the realisation that they'll be economic to mine and will likely grow in scale. Then price settled down to the 50MA following the excitement (the recent 'dip', which was a perfect opportunity to get in).
Obviously it helps to look beyond just MAs and have an understanding of if the company might be fundamentally overvalued or not - something could be a speculative bubble based on hype. Only knowing this will give long-term gains. But if a company is trending up then entering on dips to or below the MAs at least helps move the odds in favour towards making future gains.
In Filo's case it's highly likely the future fundamental value of the filo del sol discovery is still far higher than current price suggests, so the price will continue it's uptrend bouncing off and around the MAs as it goes.
(line on chart is my drawn resistance line).
(https://i.imgur.com/lj0gDyT.png)
From the Arrival chart below I'm guessing you got in the high 20s/low 30s after the initial rise. Chart looks similar to Filo's - can't tell why one should drop and the other shouldn't from looking. Only knowing the fundamentals of the respective companies and markets would help stack the odds in favour. For Filo I did, for Arrival I wouldn't know enough about them in particular or the EV market to know if the initial hype was justified or not. Current price values them at a $9billion company. Ford motor company valued at $63billion for comparison. Tesla $1trillion as of yesterday but Arrival aren't going to be the next Tesla.. are they?
(https://i.imgur.com/Q9XlphP.png)
Generally my funds seem to be doing well, so that's nice. Even the Asia focussed ones have rebounded after the scares last month. I'm quite glad I put 85%+ of my portfolio in the hands of people who know what they're doing. ;)
Hope the charges are reasonable!
Talking of getting in at the wrong time, I completely ignored my own advice when buying into GMG (graphene aluminium-ion batteries) and bought the spike when I knew I should have just waited and let it come back to the mean. Emotion definitely got the better of me on that one. However massive news yesterday - they got a letter of intent from Bosch to collaborate in designing and building a manufacturing plant to produce the first graphene aluminium-ion batteries. Massive news. Up 25% on the day, likely they'll continue upwards from here but don't get spiked!
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/gmg-and-bosch-sign-collaboration-arrangement-for-bosch
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I first bought in at $19 for Arrival, and then doubled up at $15.20, so nudging into profit on the second lot, but overall still down. 200dma seems to be gently nudging in the right direction.
I'm still unsure about the various merits of active / passive and low cost vs high performance funds. Did loads of reading, and the advice was "go low cost at all costs", but looking at the track record of the growth on some of the more managed funds (which, for my appetite are the preferable ones due to higher ESG ratings etc.), they're doing by far the best even with fees.
E.G. I have quite a bit in Janus Henderson Global Sustainable Equity, which is so far doing 10% better with fees than my Vanguard low fee passive fund. Still researching this area, but I've not seen any passive funds with the growth history of those, and, especially high ESG ranked funds. For me it's not about making money at all costs, but also being relatively happy in who I am investing in. I suppose I could just build my own portfolio of stocks based on the holdings in one of those funds...but I'm just not sure I can be arsed just now...
The only fund doing badly is the Black Rock World Mining, and it's not even close to being ESG haha. It's -10% but I don't have much in it.
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I'm still unsure about the various merits of active / passive and low cost vs high performance funds. Did loads of reading, and the advice was "go low cost at all costs", but looking at the track record of the growth on some of the more managed funds (which, for my appetite are the preferable ones due to higher ESG ratings etc.), they're doing by far the best even with fees.
E.G. I have quite a bit in Janus Henderson Global Sustainable Equity, which is so far doing 10% better with fees than my Vanguard low fee passive fund. Still researching this area, but I've not seen any passive funds with the growth history of those, and, especially high ESG ranked funds. For me it's not about making money at all costs, but also being relatively happy in who I am investing in. I suppose I could just build my own portfolio of stocks based on the holdings in one of those funds...but I'm just not sure I can be arsed just now...
The received wisdom in the wealth management industry is that passives outperform in bullish trending markets, but actives outperform in choppy markets or where there is a downturn. Portfolio managers often recommend a mix of actives and passives depending on the market and the client objectives.
Personally I chuck my regular investments into passives for long term growth then have a certain amount set aside in previous tax year ISAs that I play around with in active investments and individual stocks. I like actives for themes like tech and ESG and particular regional focuses. Probably an 80:20 mix passive to active. The actives tend to do better but require much more time and effort to pick and manage etc which I can't always be bothered with.
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I have two funds/trusts, both of which are managed. It seemed to me that they perform better, certainly in the growth sector which is often volatile.
I have 25% of my portfolio in Scottish Mortgage and I've also just started adding monthly to a BMO sustainable growth fund.
Scottish Mortgage is a no brainer for me, I wanted exposure to tech and reasonably low fees.
Everything else is in mining of one type or another apart from a few bob in VSBLTY Groupe, an AI advertising and security company that has some great partners and hopefully a bright future.
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My* early 2021 investment thesis for tin validated here, widespread acknowledgement that prices must remain elevated:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/tin-ticks-all-commodity-supercycle-boxes-andy-home-2021-11-08/
Tin:
Alphamin returning latest results from expansion exploration, joining up into one zone:
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/alphamin-provides-mpama-north-and-mpama-south-drilling
AFM release Q3 results this Thursday, expect lots of cash flow and possible maiden dividend announcement.
MLX, steady 2 steps forward/1 back.
Good overview of my* thesis on the other transition metals:
https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/faster-decarbonisation-back-to-basics-for-the-mining-industry/?utm_campaign=metals-mining&utm_medium=email&utm_source=pardot
https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/cop26-will-ensure-metal-demand--but-what-about-supply/
Copper:
Filo. (don't get spiked!) another ATH day..
Meridian Mining (ditto) another ATH day..
Nickel:
Centauras Metals, updated resource estimate due end '21. T/O target.
Talon Metals, maiden resource estimate end '21/Q1 '22. T/O target.
Batteries:
GMG.v (graphene-aluminium-ion) another ATH day.. pumping up on excitement ahead of pilot plant beginning production end of 2021 and letter of intent from Bosch to enter partnership. (don't get spiked)
Ilika (solid state), mostly all quiet but a little bit of interest, probably due to COP26. Revenue from commercial sales of miniature 'stereax' SS batteries begins Q1 '22 - medical devices and industrial IOT. Their EV trial battery goes into pilot production end '22.
EVs parts supply:
TWD. Quiet, waiting on news of more contracts, commencement of supply to Arrival EV vans,
Gold:
GBR.v T/O target. recent ATH on rumours surrounding Barrick and other majors circling. Maiden resource estimate expected before year-end, expected to be large, shallow and high grade. (don't get spiked)
GGP, testing the arc again... my target still mid-high 20s. Updated resource end '21/early'22.
Kirkland Lake, good price here, world's best major producer with most tier 1 mines in safe jurisdictions. If you believe gold price will rise then KL the highest quality producer bet for leverage. About to merge with Agnico Eagle to make world's largest gold producer.
Adriatic Metals. I sold for a 26% profit on the news of Serb Republic leader angling for secession. Amazing company and resource, too much risk of civil war. Would consider buying back in if the political situation calms down.
Sold my short-term bet on bitcoin (ARB) at the last ATH for a 11% profit, I'll take that.
All the co's I've marked 'don't get spiked' are pumping ahead at the moment, caution. Probably not a good time to buy until they fall back. Higher risk of short term loss. Also the S&P/Nasdaq now very near to overbought, expect a pullback which might pull everything back (good and bad), could be a good BTD opportunity for the above co's if you believe there's value in them.
*not my original ideas, someone far smarter than me!
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Just a quick one for anyone into the volatile world of battery investments. I said in the last post don't get spiked on GMG (Graphene Manufacturing Group). It had been moving up strongly and I imagined it would spike and fall. However it's still moving up on an extremely strong momentum move.
The suspicion is they have backers who want them to apply for an uplisting to the Nasdaq. Share price required for GMG to be eligible for listing is above/around C$6.20 and stable, and it's showing every sign of getting there. Suspected that the backers are investing in GMG now to raise the price to get the listing (to raise the price etc.). If GMG did apply for and gain listing, then all bets would be off for what sort of lunacy valuation the market might put on them. The obvious comparator would be QuantumScape, who are backed by VW. GMG's battery is supposedly better than QS's, and the rumour is that GMG are also ahead of QS in terms of getting it to market. Whatever the truth, their deal announced last month with Bosch to construct a pilot plant has properly lit the touchpaper here and it might continue to rocket, or all fizzle out with a little bang and fall to earth.
I wasn't actually that positive about GMG's management after watching some earlier interviews, seemd a bit flaky around the details and future plans. But I'm coming around. I think it might be that the ceo is a nerd more than a typical ceo and I'm wondering if he's one of those types who's capable of creating something amazing while making it sound kind of unlikely or even a bit ordinary. The management team are actually ex-Shell who left to set up GMG and are apparently very highly regarded.
Various articles and interviews explain GMG's unique tech if you search. Basically they manufacture their own high purity graphene from cracking natural gas, and use this to manufacture a graphene-aluminium-ion battery with better energy density than lithium-ion, and which is way faster charging (reportedly 60x). Also not as flammable as Li-ion. If it truly works as promised and makes its way to full commercial production then it'll be immense. Big if's though. Pilot plant commences production end of this year.
They also have some revenue coming in early next year from another clever use of graphene as a spray on coating to the inner workings of large air-con systems which makes them up to 40% more energy efficient. Smart!
Definitely high risk, but now looking like potentially a v.high reward if things go to plan. I got in on the back of the last rise at low $3s (and thought I'd spiked myself!), will be holding for the ride.
https://graphenemg.com/energy-storage-solutions/aluminum-ion-battery/
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Cornish Metals has been on an absolute tear recently with the results at United Downs.
Ilika has been for the last few days too. Which appears to be based on nothing more than being on track to meet their previously stated Stereax schedule.
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Yeah I've been watching Cornish rip. I sold around 15 for a 50% gain as, based on the drill results, I wasn't convinced United Downs would become a realistic economic project. I remain of the same opinion, and the latest drill results reinforce that.
The price rise isn't based on the drill results, it can't be, because they're just not that good. I think more likely is the rise is linked to Cornish Lithium's recent announcement (https://cornishlithium.com/) of receiving a large funding agreement to accelerate their project to extract lithium from hard rock and also from brines deep under some of CM's projects. This potentially positively impacts the valuation of Cornish Metals for the reasons linked here (tldr - royalty streams and 25% earn-in for any of CL's brine projects that are on CM's mineral rights): https://www.cornishmetals.com/projects/uk/cornish-lithium/
However, I'm still not convinced this is it. From what I understand about Cornish Lithium's projects the main focus is on the hard rock project at Trevalour, which isn't within Cornish Metal's mineral rights.
Two other explanations for CM's rise are
1. exploratory drilling is also ongoing at another area away from United Downs - a few K's south of Sotuh Crofty. A leaky ship may have revealed a discovery here perhaps.
2. general hype around continued strength in tin price and forecasts for 2022 and beyond.
Whatever the reason, I'm entirely unconvinced *so far* that Cornish have proven anything more than South Crofty will be a small scale and expensive, but economic to mine, tin/copper deposit (which they first have to dewater and construct new infrastructure within 100+ year old mine workings).
If I were still holding, I'd be selling. But I said that at 15.... There's no doubt CM has the potential to turn into an AIM meme stock given the current decarbonisation narrative.
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Meanwhile, I'd urge anybody interested in the tin investment thesis to look at Alphamin. I was saying it at around 60c, 70c, 80c, 90c and it's still the same no-brainer. Join the dots in this recent report from Edison (https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Alphamin-Resources-Underlying-results-exceed-prior-forecasts-1.pdf) - especially focus on the 'expansion valuation part', and compare with the exploration drilling results reported since earlier this year from Mpana South. More holes to be reported before year end. Mpana South resource estimate to be announced early 2022 and then again one month later.
Anyone concerned by the DRC jurisdiction could hedge by putting 50/50 in Alphamin / Metals X (Australian company, the only other major tin producer available to buy on western markets).
It's quite funny that Alphamin's mine has this year turned into one of the top 3 mines globally for most valuable ore per ton. Yep, high-grade tin, @ $40,000 per ton or a gold equivalent grade of 31 g/t, is a more valuable ore per ton than nearly all current gold, platinum, uranium, silver or rare-earths mines.
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Ilika's rise coincides with them starting commercial production of the 'stereax' solid state battery. This is a pretty big deal when you consider how many companies globally actually commercially produce solid state batteries! Also the company listed on a minor US OTC exchange and the US investors love a solid state battery story. Things are looking promising here.
But the real excitement for me is GMG. This company is amazing, the management aren't the sort of people you'd see in a small start-up. All ex high-level Shell execs from the natural gas sector.. now using natural gas to produce high-purity graphene. Their 3 products are each ingenious and highly relevant to the state of the world's energy requirement. Research them! If they pull it off, the market is going to be very impressed with what they're about to release end of this year and early next - if their performance stats are legit and scale up, the battery market's going to have the rules changed by a tiddler of a company and hardly anyone's been talking about it.
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a leaky ship may have revealed a discovery here perhaps.
I've had my suspicions on this front.
Management team have been very very cautious with their wording but it's clear that they anticipate being able to announce something more positive in the future. Whether that would be enough to justify the current valuation is another matter.
I sold most of my position today to reallocate elsewhere.
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a leaky ship may have revealed a discovery here perhaps.
I've had my suspicions on this front.
Management team have been very very cautious with their wording but it's clear that they anticipate being able to announce something more positive in the future. Whether that would be enough to justify the current valuation is another matter.
I sold most of my position today to reallocate elsewhere.
Same. Cornish Metals was a very good short term tip for me, good analysis Pete!
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Meanwhile, I'd urge anybody interested in the tin investment thesis to look at Alphamin. I was saying it at around 60c, 70c, 80c, 90c and it's still the same no-brainer. Join the dots in this recent report from Edison (https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Alphamin-Resources-Underlying-results-exceed-prior-forecasts-1.pdf) - especially focus on the 'expansion valuation part', and compare with the exploration drilling results reported since earlier this year from Mpana South. More holes to be reported before year end. Mpana South resource estimate to be announced early 2022 and then again one month later.
Anyone concerned by the DRC jurisdiction could hedge by putting 50/50 in Alphamin / Metals X (Australian company, the only other major tin producer available to buy on western markets).
It's quite funny that Alphamin's mine has this year turned into one of the top 3 mines globally for most valuable ore per ton. Yep, high-grade tin, @ $40,000 per ton or a gold equivalent grade of 31 g/t, is a more valuable ore per ton than nearly all current gold, platinum, uranium, silver or rare-earths mines.
Alphamin has been somewhat frustrating recently, certainly compared to MLX in Australia, because it's fundamentals are all in place but there is definitely some resistance around the share price.
When I first invested in tin, I had pondered on a 50/50 split AFM and MLX but after a week I chose to go 100% Alphamin. MLX is obviously now way up :yes:
I know you had mentioned you'd stick with AFM to £1.20, is that still your plan Pete?
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Yes I'm still in Alphamin and haven't sold any, it's far less frustrating for me as I'm in since 58c. It's always 2-steps forward 1-step back with any long term successful share that isn't a pump n dump. If they hit $1.20 I may top-slice, but really the future is very very bright and I won't be selling all until the resource expansion has been priced in. The drill results from Mpana South will continue to show that resource expansion is not theoretical but real - maiden resource estimate for Mpana South is being released in January.
Two risks with AFM, one of which applies to any share - 1. general market correction (universal risk) or 2. severe IS-sponsored violence in DRC. Some fighting between Ugandan military and local IS franchise recently on border between DRC and Uganda.
I also bought some MLX in October because I believe in the tin thesis. Doing well like you say (although don't get spiked if thinking of buying, they should be due a pullback from this run up) :)
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There's possibly a decent opportunity with Trackwise Designs (TWD) if anyone's interested in investing in supply chain to EV OEMs etc. This week the company announced a private placing to raise £6m plus an offer to existing shareholder to raise additional £1m. Price for the placement and offer shares is £0.80p.
This dilution, on top of recent weakness, is terrible for my original investment - I bought early this year in the low £2s (although I'll be able to average down somewhat by buying the offer shares @ 0.80p). But it could be a good moment for new investors to take advantage of the weakness if share price remains suppressed.
I bought because of their lightweight wiring harness technology (called IHT), which may end up being disruptive and used in various new transport due to its lighter weight relative to traditional wiring harnesses, and lower requirement for copper and other raw materials among other benefits. They have confirmed orders from Arrival; production begins from their new plant in Q2 2022; it sounds as if other EV OEMs, aerospace and medical are apparently showing interest. The raise is being used to extend their manufacturing capacity as reading between the lines they expect orders next year to exceed planned capacity. But proceeds are also to pay for unforeseen costs due to supply chain issues and higher price of materials. Could be a good moment to get in, or it could be a false dawn (usual investment case then!).
Overview below from their announcement (https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TWD/fundraising-and-open-offer-z6vmz099y9sx0o6.html):
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Background to and reasons for the Fundraising
The Trackwise business has been trading since 1989 and was historically a provider of large antennae for the mobile phone industry. The business was acquired by the Company (formerly called Bremhold Limited and incorporated in 2000). The Company began the development of Improved Harness Technology (IHT), being flexible multilayer printed circuit boards of unlimited length, in 2012.
In 2014, a patent was granted to the Company in relation to the IHT manufacturing process in the United Kingdom. Patents have since been granted to the Company in the United States of America, Canada, the European Union and China with an impending grant expected from Brazil.
IHT is a disruptive process technology that enables the replacement of wire and wire harnesses in a wide variety of applications. Its key benefits, which are built on the longstanding and well-known benefits of flexible PCBs of short length, are that: it can reduce weight by up to 75 per cent. when replacing incumbent technology; improve precision, reliability and performance; and its ability to support distributed electronics or 'smart harness'. IHT is positioned to satisfy the demand for lighter, smaller and more functional connectivity across a range of applications, including in the EV, aerospace and medical industries.
The Company financed the development of the IHT process technology using the retained profits of its traditional antenna business as well as debt finance during the period up to 2018. In July 2018, the Company's shares were admitted to trading on the London Stock Exchange AIM market by way of an IPO, raising £5.5 million of new money.
The funding provided at the time of IPO enabled the Company's development of the capacity and capability to manufacture IHT and since then the Company has advanced the roll-to-roll manufacture of IHT to facilitate larger scale production of IHT.
In April 2020, the Company acquired Stevenage Circuits Limited (CRN: 01059497) ("SCL"). The Company has subsequently transferred its traditional antenna business to SCL, thereby allowing it to focus its production capacity at Tewkesbury on IHT products.
In September 2020 the Company announced the culmination of 2 years' development work with an EV OEM for the supply of flexible battery harnesses made using the technology and know-how developed by the business for its IHT product. The contract was extended in June 2021 to a 4 year contract and has the potential to generate revenues of up to £54 million over that period (previously up to £38 million). The contract includes material compensation payments from the EV OEM if minimum order volumes are not placed. The Board has now received the FY 2022 production forecast from the EV OEM which is H2 biased as the EV OEM's UK and US manufacturing capacity comes online. The Q1 2022 purchase order from this EV OEM has also been received, with raw materials now on order by the Company. The EV OEM is starting to roll out its innovative modular micro factories in the UK and US, and the Directors consider that it is well funded. There remains in future the potential for volumes to be in excess of current expectations and a potential for expansion into additional new parts.
Pursuant to the contract with the EV OEM, demand from the EV OEM is expected to outstrip the capacity that the Company has in Tewkesbury and with growing interest from medical device customers, aerospace and other industrial users, this necessitated further production capacity to be enabled to meet the demand foreseen.
In April 2021, the Company completed the acquisition of a 77,000 sq. ft. freehold property in Stonehouse, Gloucestershire, for £2.8 million ("Stonehouse Site"). The property will enable the Company to significantly increase its production capacity to meet the expected demand for its IHT products. The factory refurb and fit out are underway with equipment deliveries commencing, however there have been some supply chain delays to machine deliveries in Q1 2022.
It is expected that the new Stonehouse Site will be in production at the end of Q1 2022 to meet production demand with the first production shift now recruited and being trained. It is anticipated that the Stonehouse Site will be fully operational by June 2022.
The Fundraising has been sought to fund capital expenditure and provide additional growth working capital. The Company has identified the following funding requirement pursuant to this:
· Working capital impact of raw material supply chain issues of £2.125 million; advanced payments are required to secure supply and there are longer lead times on this;
· EV customer revenues - the move of these to the year ending 31 December 2022 has cost £1.125 million of contribution compared to the Company's original forecast;
· The slow delivery of a surface mount machine experienced by the Company will mean longer use of subcontractor component assembly, with an incremental cost of £0.45 million;
· Additional increase in capacity that was not in its previous budget of £0.9 million for an additional laser direct imaging machine;
· An additional £0.35 million in solar PV panels which are predicted to save c. £0.1 million per annum; and
· An additional £1.0 million contingency working capital buffer.
The Company has an IHT sales pipeline with 81 customers and opportunities in total (excluding any early stage opportunities) including, but not limited to:
IHT opportunities: UK EV OEM customer - opportunities beyond the current contract described above; EV and Aerospace: potential with other battery management customers, including a pre-development phase opportunity with an automotive large EU OEM potential customer; Medical: Cathprint, and several other manufacturers and Motor Windings.
APCB opportunities: Within the existing customer base and the Company has also been qualified by a global consumer electronics OEM.
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In a 'best of 2021' theme, a review of investments for 2021. Good to keep track whether active investing is worth the hassle or whether it'd be better to just chuck it in passive index trackers. Or horror of horrors, pay someone else to invest for you.
Individual stocks:
Holding
Alphamin +64.5%
Artemis Resources +15.5%
Centauras Metals +36.3%
Filo Mining (inside ISA) +171%
Filo Mining (outside ISA) +244%
Graphene Manufacturing Group +17%
Greatland Gold +85%
Ilika -15%
Orosur Mining -50%
Trackwise Designs -64%
Kirkland Lake +12% plus 1.4% in dividends
Meridian Mining +112.5%
Metals X +53.5%
Polarean Imaging -39%
Talon Metals -4.7%
Sold during 2021
Adriatic Metals +26%
Argo Blockchain +17%
Bitcoin +10%
Conroy Gold Natural Resources -27%
Cornish Metals +50%
Great Bear Resources +80%
Greatland Gold +1800%
Imperial Metals -26%
KEFI -49%
Meridian Mining +100%
Ucore Rare Metals +85%
I didn't calculate my overall return at the end of 2020. Overall portfolio return for the last 2 years 2020-2022: +906%
A large chunk of the gain due to GGP, but I still would have comfortably beaten the market without it.
S&P500 2-year return +48%
FTSE100 2-year return -3%
TSX 2-year return +24.5%
Nasdaq 2-year return +87%
Here's to a profitable 2022 to all UKB investors.
:)
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Tesla announced yesterday that they'd signed an agreement to directly source nickel to be used in their EV batteries from one of my nickel mining investments, Talon Metals (now +25%)
It's starting to look like an emerging theme for EV manufacturers to directly source their battery metals from the mines themselves, rather than go through sourcing from middlemen and the metal markets. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out over the next decade, could we reach a point where smaller EV manufacturers are priced out of sourcing battery metals and become obliged to use one of the major EV manufacturer's batteries, simply due to lack of an independent supply of ESG compliant metals? I suspect so and Tesla may be aiming to corner a large part of the market for responsibly sourced Nickel and perhaps Cobalt.
Centaurus Metals my other nickel investment, also doing very well after a large increase to their resource estimate.
Report (https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-talon-metals-nickel-supply/):
Tesla has agreed to a nickel supply deal with Talon Metals, a Minnesota-based company. It is the first United States supply of nickel for the electric automaker.
Little-known Talon Metals (OTCMKTS: TLOFF) is traded in the OTC Markets Group and holds a valuation of 421.48M CAD ($332,456,465).
Some terms of the deal are not public knowledge, according to Reuters, who initially reported the agreement. However, Tesla will buy 75,000 tonnes of nickel over six years, and Talon will also provide cobalt and iron ore to the electric automaker for its batteries. Additionally, the agreement may be extended “for up to 12 months following which Tesla has a right to terminate the agreement and Talon may elect to sell to other parties.”
“This agreement is the start of an innovative partnership between Tesla and Talon for the responsible production of battery materials directly from the mine to the battery cathode. Talon is committed to meeting the highest standards of responsible production that is fully traceable and that has the lowest embedded CO2 footprint in the industry. Talon is excited to support Tesla’s mission to accelerate the transition to renewable energy,” CEO of Talon, Henri van Rooyen, said.
“The Talon team has taken an innovative approach to the discovery, development and production of battery materials, including to permanently store carbon as part of mine operations and the investigation of the novel extraction of battery materials,” Drew Baglino, Senior Vice President of Powertrain and Energy Engineering at Tesla, said. “Responsible sourcing of battery materials has long been a focus for Tesla, and this project has the promise to accelerate the production of sustainable energy products in North America.”
In July 2020, Tesla CEO Elon Musk called upon mining companies to supply more nickel. “Well, I’d just like to reemphasize, any mining companies out there, please mine more nickel, OK?” Musk asked. “Wherever you are in the world, please mine more nickel, and don’t wait for nickel to go back to some long–some high point that you experienced some five years ago or whatever. Go for efficiency, as environmentally friendly, nickel mining at high volume. Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally sensitive way. So hopefully, this message goes out to all mining companies.”
Nickel has been sought after by Tesla since then due to its environmental advantages over other rare earth metals that are used in electric car batteries. Since Musk’s call for nickel suppliers to mine more of it, Tesla has discussed and secured some nickel deals, including one with LG to supply high-nickel batteries to Gigafactory Shanghai in China next year. Tesla also signed an agreement with BHP, an Australian nickel company, in July 2021.
Tesla has also been in need of nickel while the company still develops and builds its 4680 battery cell. Nickel is a key material that Tesla needs for its high-powered batteries, including the 4680 cells. The cells are currently in pilot production at the company’s Kato Road facility in Fremont, California.
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Backed the proverbial truck up with LDG which following disposal of its sole investment is trading at 13.5p despite a declared 18.5p of cash per share. Best case is they swiftly wind up and return that cash to shareholders. Worst case is they spunk it away on a duff acquisition. However given their track record and especially the track record of the investment manager DBay frittering the cash away seems highly unlikely. Another potential outcome if they don’t wind up or make a large investment is a partial return of cash and the rest retained awaiting a suitable acquisition. Another way the value may be outed is if they start buying their own shares which enhances their value and bumps the share price up towards 18p fair value. Probably as good a downside protection as it gets and potential 30% upside one way or the other but hard to call the timescale.
This is playing out perfectly now - shame it’s dry January but the protein shakes are on me.
The cash per share went up to 19.2p following receipt of some more cash but crazily it was possible to buy around 12.5p which I took advantage of.
Today they’ve announced an intention to buy back 20% of the shares to be voted on at a GM at the end of the month and the price has gone up 8% on the news to ~14.5p per share which is still a steal as the buyback price <should> be over 17p per share. The market may close the gap on digesting the news but I’ve no spare cash to buy more.
Edit: Just sold another holding to buy more at 13.9p. Bonkers
Further edit: Depending on the offer price the buyback could be oversubscribed but it’s a win because if priced low the NAV of retained shares will increase and if priced high then I’ll only get to sell 20% of my holding but for about a ~40% uplift on those shares unless they just buy in the market
Further edit: Been told they will buy in the market. Not in a rush to sell unless it gets close to NTAV
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Hopefully people have been enjoying the fruits of the tin, nickel and copper suggestions put forward here over the last 12 months.
Filo will continue to release great results throughout the first half of this year. It didn't go unnoticed by the market(!) that they released the best silver intercept of the last few years globally - beating all dedicated silver explorers - from a hole that they had to abort at mid depth which was targeting copper at depth (the silver zone isn't a surprise, the grade and extent was). My target of $20, which I've no doubt barring force majeure it will hit as it doesn't even factor the sulphides at depth i.e. the most valuable part of Filo, is being updated to $30 for the next 12 months. I'll be taking profits at $20 and leaving the rest on the table. Best resource discovery company ever.
Alphamin announced a blockbuster first dividend of 3%, which for anyone who bought a significant amount of shares by getting in early is a large divi! But the story's still only getting started here. They'll be releasing the maiden resource estimate for the neighbouring Mpana south deposit any day now, expect a realistic target of $2 to start appearing in broker notes. Amazing company, a rare combo of superb value and exciting growth. Still holding all.
Tin price keeps hitting all time highs, MLX also a beneficiary. Expecting tin price to ease of through the year but the price increase is based on sustained demand and only expected to float down to low 40s. Price has turned these two companies into cash machines.
Centaurus released updated resource estimate, absolutely stellar - Sprott upgraded price target to over $2. Nickel price being squeezed this year (https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/nickel-gripped-by-ferocious-squeeze-stocks-disappear-andy-home-2022-01-19/). Talon should also benefit from the sentiment.
Meridian churning out good result after good result. A few more holes still to come then it's into an updated resource estimate early this year and PFS late this year. I'll probably be selling into strength here.
GMG - got it's production plant built and sent it's graphene-aluminium batteries to customers for evaluation, next catalyst is feedback and decisions from customers. Another catalyst is announcement of revenue from Thermal XR air-con treatment.
Kirkland Lake just added a couple of billion to its market cap on gold breaking out... other majors similar, juniors should follow if its sustained. GGP at a pivotal point next month.
Illika/Trackwise/Polarean/Orosur/Artemis - holding pattern, nothing much doing except Artemis, have to wait till March for assays.
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Yeah, happy times for Filo currently and that huge silver hit seems to have caused some momentum - I'm up about 55% but sadly outside of my ISA.
Alphamin is however lacking momentum... no doubt it'll pick up speed as the tin squeeze gets ever greater.
Interesting to see your nickel choice of Centaurus. My PF has non but my better half has North American Nickel NAN.v, which is already performing well for her.
Artemis - I have a small holding in but nice to see them going on record to say "Havieron-like geology encountered".
Tech stuff not doing well currently but not overly concerned - not got too much in it, apart from a chunk inScottish Mortgage.
Here's to Filo achieving your hopes for it Pete.
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Yep the $1 mark is the current stepping stone. It'll pass. Alphamin has a very large shareholder in Denham Capital from early days. I believe there's some overhang there as profits are taken around the dollar mark, but this is a massively bullish company only going in one direction over time.
Looked at NAN.v recently, I'm sure they're also going to do v.well in this environment.
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Pete, what trading platform do you use? I'm sure the answer is somewhere in the thread but its a lot to wade through! Cheers :)
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Nige, I use interactive investor.
Filo drill results today were great as expected. A capital raise is now incoming, hence the subdued response. But will be a tiny dilution for, I'm guessing, $50-100m which will fund the increased rig count and costs for the next 12 months of drilling. The first of many brokers today raised their target to $30 - Haywood Capital. More to follow no doubt.
Next up, AFM with the maiden resource announcement for south.
Sold all my Talon today into strength for +25%. I see Centaurus as a better project long term.
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Guess I’m talking to myself with regard to boring value plays but further to previous posts on LDG the proposed changes to the investment policy and the share buyback has been approved.
An exemption has been approved such that the reduction in shares from the buyback won’t automatically trigger a takeover requirement for DBay and concert party if the threshold is crossed. The proportion of equity held by them is a concern and the risk of a future stitch up for private investors is concerning but given their activities reputational damage is important.
The announcement has triggered a small rise today but only to 13.8p whilst the current cash per share stands at 18.7p (I think). That cash per share figure will rise as they buyback shares at a discount to cash.
The change in investment policy now gives DBay in its role as investment manager virtual free rein to invest in a wide range of sectors in unlisted and listed companies. Their track record in this respect is excellent. If the buyback clears out disaffected shareholders such that the gap closes between the market SP and the Cash per Share then I’ll most likely sell out. If not I’m happy to wait and see how they invest the remaining cash.
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Not at all Si, I'm listening! Value stocks are looking attractive with the smashdown of many US tech growth names recently, thankfully I don't invest in US tech growth stocks as mostly the subject matter doesn't interest me. My only one is GMG on the TSX, a battery play which I find fascinating to see where it goes.
LDG looks a steady and reassuring way to get a return in a volatile market. I have a couple of value plays, still in the commodities sector and far more volatile but really very steady due to the underlying quality of the business.
My best value play is Alphamin, it's incredible value with the glitter of growth thrown in, plus opportunity for a T/O down the line. Last quarter's earnings returned $75m EBITDA of $75m and these will likely be at least same or higher going forwards. So a company printing $300m EBITDA annually at a market cap of 3 X EBITDA, in a sector that averages closer to 10 X. The market is still only coming around to what's happening there in sleepy tin-land, despite the steady rise in share price over last 18 months. I'm being paid a 3% dividend this month for a cash figure that amounts to 6% of my original investment. Scale that up annually : )) Then throw in the massive resource growth potential as highlighted by latest drill results released yesterday. As I've been banging the drum for the last twelve months, this is only going in one direction unless the DRC falls into a bad situation, possible but not probable.
Another value play that I'd love to invest in but can't is UAN. At least I can't invest in my ISA, I think I could over the phone into my general account but can't be bothered with the CGT that will likely result. It's a US nitrogen fertiliser company called CVR Partners (ticker UAN). They're benefitting from higher prices in the US market but also a number of factors coming together at the current time, including the current nat gas price hikes in Europe making fertiliser imports to the US more expensive, and unrest and sanctions in Ukraine/Belarus/Russia shutting down nitrogen fertiliser exports from those areas. Check out this value thesis underwritten by a large dividend, with a double (or higher) in sp growth thrown in. It's quite compelling:
https://plumcapital.substack.com/p/uan-plums-best-commodities-play
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At 32, I've just started my investment journey so will be reading this thread with a bit more interest. Currently i'm not doing anything as exciting as picking stocks, but i've set up a monthly direct debit of 10% of my gross salary to Vanguard's 80% equity lifestrategy fund through their shares ISA. Feels like a sensible move from just spending my income or letting it sit in the bank. I'd like to increase the % when I can, but currently it's one wage paying the mortgage and supporting a family of soon to be 5!
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Good move. Just keep paying it in even when the market's dropping and it might feel like paying good money after bad - in fact especially when the market's dropping or crashing! As those contributions during declining market months and years (if they happen) will be your biggest earners when you come out the other side. I recommend this as a good read (https://www.amazon.co.uk/Psychology-Money-Timeless-lessons-happiness/dp/0857197681/ref=asc_df_0857197681/?tag=googshopuk-21&linkCode=df0&hvadid=427902758346&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=8659970033453346658&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=1007414&hvtargid=pla-947774987444&psc=1&th=1&psc=1&tag=&ref=&adgrpid=103526071910&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvadid=427902758346&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=8659970033453346658&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=1007414&hvtargid=pla-947774987444), really resonated with me, probably because I'd made many of the errors of thinking in my 20s and early 30s.
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Thanks Pete but I’ve no experience of commodities/resource stocks.
It would have to be a very simple investment TNAV case of the value of proven mineable product less a low level of debt and I suspect that would point to the BLT’s and RTZ’s of this world.
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Yep, those companies are steady plodders, where you can take a view on the future price movement of their respective commodities and leverage it by investing in those big miners with their known or fairly certain forward estimates of annual production. They bore me! Although I do enjoy the steady return I get from Kirkland Lake as one of the most efficient gold majors.
Even better as value plays in the commodity/PMs space are the big royalties companies - Osisko Royalty, Franco-Nevada etc. They benefit from all the same margin leverage on the commodity price as the miners do, but with none of the downside risk of operations. Again, they bore me!
I love getting into the weeds and researching to try to find the good early stage discoveries and little-known undervalued producers.
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Good move. Just keep paying it in even when the market's dropping and it might feel like paying good money after bad - in fact especially when the market's dropping or crashing! As those contributions during declining market months and years (if they happen) will be your biggest earners when you come out the other side. I recommend this as a good read (https://www.amazon.co.uk/Psychology-Money-Timeless-lessons-happiness/dp/0857197681/ref=asc_df_0857197681/?tag=googshopuk-21&linkCode=df0&hvadid=427902758346&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=8659970033453346658&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=1007414&hvtargid=pla-947774987444&psc=1&th=1&psc=1&tag=&ref=&adgrpid=103526071910&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvadid=427902758346&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=8659970033453346658&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=1007414&hvtargid=pla-947774987444), really resonated with me, probably because I'd made many of the errors of thinking in my 20s and early 30s.
Cheers Pete, I've just finished the audiobook you recommended and enjoyed it. A lot of what's written should be common sense (which isn't all that common), but there were some good take aways. One of my favourite parts was not strictly finance related, but on finding the best way to live without regrets by enduring the moderate path. On the basis we overestimate how much we have changed from our younger selves yet underestimate how much we will change in the future, investing moderately, having moderate freetime, etc. resonated as having a lower likelihood of regret in the future.
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I was thinking today about global trackers and thought it’s worth mentioning this site for some good pointers. Written in the main by two authors with contrasting approaches to investing for retirement - one slow, steady and passive (i.e. trackers) and the other actively stock-picking and trading over a shorter term. It’s a great site with loads of good info. There are obvs loads of investment advice sites out there, but I keep coming back to this one as it’s hard to beat for an overview from a UK perspective, and seems at least fairly independent.
It’s worth knowing (if you don’t already) that many commentators believe the US markets will underperform over the next decade, following an amazing run of returns over the last decade or so.
Of course you could find plenty of commentators who believe the opposite. But worth bearing in mind at least where the US market currently sits in the context of the last 15 years of high returns since 2008/9, relative to the valuations of other markets such as UK, Europe, China, Japan and emerging. I’d certainly be expecting weakness in anything that heavily tracks US tech/growth markets currently.
https://monevator.com/category/investing/passive-investing-investing/
There’s an article somewhere on there comparing various global trackers or combos of trackers.
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Obviously I follow a bunch of people in tinnickelcopperland. One guy I follow closely is Mark Thompson, a director at Meridian Mining, Cornish Metals and a bunch of others in that sphere. Worth a follow if you're interested about investing in tin, copper and commodities in general.
There's an IPO coming to the LSE main market (not AIM). Marketing for it starts on Monday. Company is called First Tin. It has exploration projects ongoing in Germany plus a project in Aus. Like Cornish it could be another good one to get in early as the whole tin thesis - demand for 'green' tin instead of destructive Indonesian dredging, increase in demand from the energy transition and the move to put 'chips in everything', and the raging commodity price, - is beginning to get noticed by the crowd. It'll be interesting to see the marketing but from their website they're obviously heavily playing the ESG card for their 'environmentally sound' tin produced in Germany and processed in Europe. This is the way the market's going, more and more people want to feel reassured (somewhat belatedly..) that the raw materials in their car, phone, laptop and charging infrastructure weren't obtained by reliance on poverty-stricken teenagers dying in artisan Myanmar mines or via destroying marine habitat off the cost of Indonesia by a corrupt state-owned entity.
I can see it doing well in the current environment, providing the whole western market system doesn't melt down over Ukraine.. It has the advantage of not being in the DRC! Could attract those muppets - sorry investors - too scared to invest in Alphamin. :)
Website: https://firsttin.com/
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Obviously I follow a bunch of people in tinnickelcopperland. One guy I follow closely is Mark Thompson, a director at Meridian Mining, Cornish Metals and a bunch of others in that sphere. Worth a follow if you're interested about investing in tin, copper and commodities in general.
There's an IPO coming to the LSE main market (not AIM). Marketing for it starts on Monday. Company is called First Tin. It has exploration projects ongoing in Germany plus a project in Aus. Like Cornish it could be another good one to get in early as the whole tin thesis - demand for 'green' tin instead of destructive Indonesian dredging, increase in demand from the energy transition and the move to put 'chips in everything', and the raging commodity price, - is beginning to get noticed by the crowd. It'll be interesting to see the marketing but from their website they're obviously heavily playing the ESG card for their 'environmentally sound' tin produced in Germany and processed in Europe. This is the way the market's going, more and more people want to feel reassured (somewhat belatedly..) that the raw materials in their car, phone, laptop and charging infrastructure weren't obtained by reliance on poverty-stricken teenagers dying in artisan Myanmar mines or via destroying marine habitat off the cost of Indonesia by a corrupt state-owned entity.
I can see it doing well in the current environment, providing the whole western market system doesn't melt down over Ukraine.. It has the advantage of not being in the DRC! Could attract those muppets - sorry investors - too scared to invest in Alphamin. :)
Website: https://firsttin.com/
So, how do you get in on an IPO like that?
I'm so far doing pretty poorly with my choices of shares (most of the funds are doing ok, recent dip notwithstanding). In fact...the only thing doing well so far is....you guessed it....FILO!
Arrival has been a total flop. Doubt it's even a good buy at current prices.
Proves the point - it's not hard to make money on the stock market, but it's even easier to lose it :lol:
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WH Ireland are running the IPO, they can be contacted here but likely the IPO will only be available to high net worths and insto investors: https://whirelandinvestorforum.com/
I contacted them yesterday, waiting for reply. Will likely have to buy on the market, I'll see what market cap the initial placing gives them and see how sentiment is when they hit the market.
Arrival listed at almost he worst possible moment in the big picture. Not a good environment for high PE growth stocks. Now's a good moment for the cyclical stuff but if you're late to that story you're playing catch up as it runs ever higher. Many commodity stocks are doing very well and I'll continue to expect good things this year barring black swans. Nitrogen fertilisers are a compelling thesis and I've been considering MOS or CF but I don't really have anything that I'd want to sell to put into it, all my commodity stocks are doing great and I expect them to continue for 1H this year at least.
Anything unprofitable and long-term growth is best left in the bottom drawer and forgotten about for now, unless you need the money.
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Obviously I follow a bunch of people in tinnickelcopperland. One guy I follow closely is Mark Thompson, a director at Meridian Mining, Cornish Metals and a bunch of others in that sphere. Worth a follow if you're interested about investing in tin, copper and commodities in general.
There's an IPO coming to the LSE main market (not AIM). Marketing for it starts on Monday. Company is called First Tin. It has exploration projects ongoing in Germany plus a project in Aus. Like Cornish it could be another good one to get in early as the whole tin thesis - demand for 'green' tin instead of destructive Indonesian dredging, increase in demand from the energy transition and the move to put 'chips in everything', and the raging commodity price, - is beginning to get noticed by the crowd. It'll be interesting to see the marketing but from their website they're obviously heavily playing the ESG card for their 'environmentally sound' tin produced in Germany and processed in Europe. This is the way the market's going, more and more people want to feel reassured (somewhat belatedly..) that the raw materials in their car, phone, laptop and charging infrastructure weren't obtained by reliance on poverty-stricken teenagers dying in artisan Myanmar mines or via destroying marine habitat off the cost of Indonesia by a corrupt state-owned entity.
I can see it doing well in the current environment, providing the whole western market system doesn't melt down over Ukraine.. It has the advantage of not being in the DRC! Could attract those muppets - sorry investors - too scared to invest in Alphamin. :)
Website: https://firsttin.com/
So, how do you get in on an IPO like that?
I'm so far doing pretty poorly with my choices of shares (most of the funds are doing ok, recent dip notwithstanding). In fact...the only thing doing well so far is....you guessed it....FILO!
Arrival has been a total flop. Doubt it's even a good buy at current prices.
Proves the point - it's not hard to make money on the stock market, but it's even easier to lose it :lol:
Sometimes, keeping the faith/trust in your choice can be diffy if you're down 40/50% but if you've really done your research then practicing paitience is all that's needed to garner a return.
I have a couple I'm heavily down on but the both companies are doing great, it's just the share price doesn't reflect that.
Last week, one of mine jumped 38% in a day, over 50% in three days - that'd been flat for a while, even with some great news with regards to financing. So patience definitely paid off for me.
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Obviously I follow a bunch of people in tinnickelcopperland. One guy I follow closely is Mark Thompson, a director at Meridian Mining, Cornish Metals and a bunch of others in that sphere. Worth a follow if you're interested about investing in tin, copper and commodities in general.
There's an IPO coming to the LSE main market (not AIM). Marketing for it starts on Monday. Company is called First Tin. It has exploration projects ongoing in Germany plus a project in Aus. Like Cornish it could be another good one to get in early as the whole tin thesis - demand for 'green' tin instead of destructive Indonesian dredging, increase in demand from the energy transition and the move to put 'chips in everything', and the raging commodity price, - is beginning to get noticed by the crowd. It'll be interesting to see the marketing but from their website they're obviously heavily playing the ESG card for their 'environmentally sound' tin produced in Germany and processed in Europe. This is the way the market's going, more and more people want to feel reassured (somewhat belatedly..) that the raw materials in their car, phone, laptop and charging infrastructure weren't obtained by reliance on poverty-stricken teenagers dying in artisan Myanmar mines or via destroying marine habitat off the cost of Indonesia by a corrupt state-owned entity.
I can see it doing well in the current environment, providing the whole western market system doesn't melt down over Ukraine.. It has the advantage of not being in the DRC! Could attract those muppets - sorry investors - too scared to invest in Alphamin. :)
Website: https://firsttin.com/
Pete, any thoughts on TUN: Tungsten West. I've done little to no research - just wondering if you'd heard much about them?
Polymetals is looking cheap just now :blink:
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Eurasia Mining and Polymetals both taken large dumps for obvious reasons. Yeah I’d say both are looking cheap although less cheap today than yesterday! - bargain hunters and day-traders out in force looking for dropportunities for a quick trade. Problem with thinking they look cheap now is that no one knows what the future days and weeks hold - they may end up far cheaper! (and the world an even bleaker place), or the conflict may settle more or less where it is now and those sorts of stocks rebound from here.
I wouldn’t touch either, I’ve never trusted or liked the jurisdictions, and there far better less volatile opportunities out there that aren’t under Russian influence.
Related, decent framework overview of potential economic impacts, depending on severity of sanctions here:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-02-25/war-in-ukraine-how-the-ukraine-russia-conflict-could-impact-the-global-economy?cmpid=BBD022522_OEU&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=220225&utm_campaign=openeurope
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I haven’t taken any interest in Tungsten West although I see it mentioned on the periphery of other stuff I’m reading.
Mark Thompson involved with them (same guy involved with Cornish, Merdian Mining and First Tin) worth a follow on Twitter.
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I notice the US nitrogen fertiliser producers I mentioned a few weeks ago are on the move as a result a f the conflict. Belarus and Russia significant exporters to the US of potash and nitrogen fertilisers.. not anymore…
CF, MOS, UAN.
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My buying a shed load of rubles hoping on the inevitable left vs right civil war in America has really backfired here.
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My buying a shed load of rubles hoping on the inevitable left vs right civil war in America has really backfired here.
Yeah - that's harsh. I hope the shed was small. 'Sensible' heads would always say buy gold but who knows the future?
I've sat on my hands this last week, done nothing and managed to finish 8% up. I hardly know what I'm doing in the stock market, so doing nothing whilst the world goes to hell seemed sensible.
Then today Filo announced a PP of $100m and soared on opening, which along with a couple of other equities made for a good day.
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Obviously I follow a bunch of people in tinnickelcopperland. One guy I follow closely is Mark Thompson, a director at Meridian Mining, Cornish Metals and a bunch of others in that sphere. Worth a follow if you're interested about investing in tin, copper and commodities in general.
There's an IPO coming to the LSE main market (not AIM). Marketing for it starts on Monday. Company is called First Tin. It has exploration projects ongoing in Germany plus a project in Aus. Like Cornish it could be another good one to get in early as the whole tin thesis - demand for 'green' tin instead of destructive Indonesian dredging, increase in demand from the energy transition and the move to put 'chips in everything', and the raging commodity price, - is beginning to get noticed by the crowd. It'll be interesting to see the marketing but from their website they're obviously heavily playing the ESG card for their 'environmentally sound' tin produced in Germany and processed in Europe. This is the way the market's going, more and more people want to feel reassured (somewhat belatedly..) that the raw materials in their car, phone, laptop and charging infrastructure weren't obtained by reliance on poverty-stricken teenagers dying in artisan Myanmar mines or via destroying marine habitat off the cost of Indonesia by a corrupt state-owned entity.
I can see it doing well in the current environment, providing the whole western market system doesn't melt down over Ukraine.. It has the advantage of not being in the DRC! Could attract those muppets - sorry investors - too scared to invest in Alphamin. :)
Website: https://firsttin.com/
Pete, any thoughts on TUN: Tungsten West. I've done little to no research - just wondering if you'd heard much about them?
Polymetals is looking cheap just now :blink:
Here's a snippet of news I noticed about Tungsten West for you (I'm not invested and don't follow them closely):
Tungsten West, the company aiming to bring the Hemerdon tungsten / tin mine in Devon back into production, has announced the signing of an EPCM (Engineering Procurement and Construction Management) contract with Fairport Engineering.
• The company says it has taken delivery of some of the key, long-lead time, equipment required to restart the operation, including X-ray sorters, and that “the rest of the long-lead items … [have been] … ordered and … [are] … scheduled for delivery within the Company's timetable”.
• Tungsten West explains that detailed engineering design work is well advanced and that it has filled key operating and project management posts required to restart the mine which is expected to become a major supplier of strategically significant tungsten concentrates in a market dominated by China, Vietnam and Russia.
• The mine is expected to produce 3.5m metric tonne units (mtu) of tungsten trioxide annually with 500tpa of tin in concentrate.
• Tungsten West explains that its BFS assumed commodity prices that are lower than those currently prevailing with an assumed price of the benchmark ammonium paratungstate (APT) of US$275/mtu “for the first year of operation, rising to $325 by year 5” compared to a current US$335-345/mtu and an assumed tin price of US$24,000/t compared to the current price of over US$45,000/t.
• Welcoming the appointment of Fairport Engineering, CEO, Max Denning, said that Taungsten West was looking forward to working with them “as we move towards restarting full production at Hemerdon, with a substantially improved processing route, through the introduction of XRT ore-sorting and upgraded processing equipment”.
• He added that “The Company has assembled a strong projects and operations team, and we remain confident in our progress”.
• Although tungsten was produced at Hemerdon during WWII, the recent development was originally undertaken by Wolf Minerals which went into liquidation in 2018 and the project was acquired from the liquidators by Tungsten West in 2019. Tungsten West made its AIM debut in October 2021.
Polymetals expelled from the ftse. bye bye..
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Some basic info from a research note, on fallout from Russia/Ukraine conflict.
(TLDR - various forms of fertilisers; copper, nickel and other industrial commodities; plus gold, all squeezed. Even more so than the original energy transition scenario. Energy transition now even more urgent than before due to shifting balance of powers, on top of climate goals)
After Ukraine – where do we go from here?
• Scenario A (unlikely) – Russia wins, Ukraine surrenders, peace is restored, Putin threatens Baltic states. Sanctions maintained but undermined by China. Germany imports US LNG. o NATO bolsters Baltic states of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania - WWIII looks increasingly likely. o Ukraine is sanctioned as a part of Russia disrupting flows of iron ore, titanium, ammonium nitrate, grain and other raw materials into the West o Putin cements hold on other FSU states including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan which hosts US and Russian air bases. o Russian government employs PR agency to restore public image. o Generals continue to support Putin. NATO increases spending on armaments.
• Scenario B – Russia wins but suffers heavy casualties, Ukraine surrenders, peace is restored under Russian rule, Putin stops at Ukraine. Sanctions undermined by China.
o Heavy casualties may cause Putin to reconsider his long-planned desire to restore the FSU and recreate the USSR. o Russian population show unrest. Dissidents are arrested in greater numbers. o Generals continue to support Putin. NATO increases spending on armaments. o $15bn/day est. cost of war drains Russian economy
• Scenario C (likely) – Russia wins, controls Kiev, take huge casualties as fighting continues – possibly for years. Putin stops at Ukraine. Sanctions maintained but undermined by China o Sanctions are toughened. More anti-tank missiles and anti-air missiles are sent to Ukraine forces. o Russian army is increasingly humiliated – Cost of war cripples economy – Just like Russia’s war with Afghanistan - Russia enters recession o Dissidents in Russia find support on reports of rising Russian casualties. o Generals increasingly unhappy with Putin.
• Scenario D – Russia is not able to gain control of Kiev, fighting continues, Russian held back by street fighting, horrendous civilian casualties as Kiev is flattened. Sanctions maintained, o Russian army is humiliated as casualties rise on both sides. o Civilian deaths and atrocities cement the West against Russia. Germany looks to stop buying Russian gas. China continues to ask for peace. o Russian generals turn against Putin for humiliating Russia and leading an unpopular costly campaign, creating regime change.
• We do not wish to promote any particular scenario. The Ukraine army lacks munitions and only had 20 Turkish drones to start with. Russia’s slow-moving column has suffered few attacks and is preparing to move on Kiev.
• Much will depend on how fast new munitions and drones can be delivered to Ukrainian soldiers close to the front line. • If Putin had not threatened the West with nuclear retaliation this war would have been over before it had begun.
• The EU may allow Turkey, a NATO member, into the EU
Conclusion: The situation will likely turbo-charge West’s move away from oil and gas towards renewables and electric vehicles. Wind farm, solar and utility-scale battery storage programs will accelerate driving demand yet higher for related metals. Germany is to keep its Nuclear power stations running for longer as Green party drops its opposition to nuclear High oil and gas prices will simply persuade more companies and consumers to invest in alternative energy supplies as oil and gas are increasingly associated with atrocities and war within Europe.
Russia – S&P, Fitch downgrade Russian debt to junk status, while Moody’s review
• Two out of the three top rating agencies have cut Russia’s debt to “junk” status following the invasion of Ukraine. • Fitch downgraded Russia to B from BBB, which is five notches below investment grade, and placed the country on negative watch.
• S&P cut Russia’s rating from BBB- to BB+ - stripping Russia of its investment grade standing. FTSE100 changes - Polymetal and Evraz have been ejected from the FTSE100 o Endeavour Mining and Howden Joinery have replaced Polymetal and Evraz in the FTSE 100.
Germany – Back of envelope gas payments by Germany to Russia
• In 2020-21, Germany imported c.150bcm of gas (ref Nord2 would add 55bcm/year)
• Total gas exports outside the former Soviet Union were 185bcm, incl 10bcm exported to China,
• Gazprom is basing its 2022 budget on what it calls a “conservative” export price of $296 per 1,000 cubic meters • German supply showed that in December 2021 Russian pipeline gas accounted for 32%, Norwegian gas 20% and Dutch 12%, with storage 22%
• Assuming Germany buys 40-50% (60-75bcm) of its gas from Russia @ $330/mcm (c.$8/mmBtu) this works out at $20-25bn/year or $55-70m/day Conclusion: Between variable gas prices and volumes, we’re probably talking in the range of $50-$100m per day Russia – Oil export flows, according to the media, have fallen by ~1/3rd (2.5mmb/d) this week as a result of Western sanctions, together with buyers reluctant to assume the risk in taking Russian cargoes.
• Russia normally exports 4.7 million b/d of crude and 2.8 million b/d of products, according to government data.
Copper jumps as traders consider limited supply availability
• Copper prices rallied to $10,438/t before retreating to $10,370/t, the highest since October.
• Warehouse inventories in China have been rising slowly but global warehouse stocks hit 200kt in Feb., enough for 3 days of global consumption.
• Analysts are noting slowing metals flows from Russia as shipping companies limit freight and traders are unable to finance Russian trade.
• St. Petersburg port is a major facilitator of seaborne copper trade.
• The wider implications of Chile’s depleting copper supplies are also causing prices to rise, with production down 7.5% in 2021.
Thermal coal continues to soar on Russia-disrupted supply concerns
• Benchmark Asia thermal coal price up 46%. • Newcastle thermal coal up $140/t to $446/t yesterday.
• With oil moving over $110/bbl owing to Russia’s dominance of supply in Europe, traders are looking to shore up alternatives.
• Russia also accounts for 17% of global thermal coal exports, with indirect sanctions and closed shipping lines expected to limit its availability to the global market.
• The disruption adds to an already tight thermal-coal market, with Covid-related labour shortages in China and Mongolia adding to export disruption for major producer Indonesia.
Aluminium and nickel push through decade-highs as Russia supply concerns mount
• Aluminium hit another all-time-high today at $3,691/t. • Nickel up 6.1% to $27,470/t, its highest since April 2011.
• Norislk produces 17% of global Class-1 nickel supply, used for battery production.
• Maersk, the primary shipper for Rusal’s aluminium cargoes, suspended Russia-related operations, adding an additional catalyst to the price momentum.
• Aluminium inventories have halved in LME warehouses yoy to 809kt.
Gold consolidates gains as Treasury yields inch up on Fed rate hike expectations
• Gold has settled around the $1,930/oz mark having climbed to $1,947/oz yesterday.
• The metal shrugged off a 16bp rise in US 10-year Treasury yields.
• Gold global ETF physical holdings climbed higher to 101.2moz.
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I was joking you profiteering scumbags.
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Greatland (GGP) released a resource update today. Assume a bunch of it must have already been priced in, because the shares didn't move anywhere near as much as the size of the resource estimate
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/greatland_gold/news/rns/story/xo783mr
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Yep it's some nice manoeuvring from GGP to release the upgrade independently of Newcrest. Lots going on in background with the valuation of Newcrest's final 5% option.
I sold most of my GGP in the low 30s and high 20s for massive gains but retain 1.4million shares bought at 1.5p. I'll be selling those remaining shares when they float back up to the low 20s sometime over the next year or two as Havieron approaches production. Loads of lunatics on the chat forums think GGP is worth multiple billions / 50p+, without considering they'll only own 25% of whatever is eventually proven and a valuation of that sort would give them the highest valuation on a per-oz basis maybe ever. No doubt an amazing asset and a decent enough investment in the low teens. But there are far better investments out there now. It rose too far too fast (to my great benefit) and trapped loads of people on the way up in the hype. Never seen a group of investors like it, literally financial lemmings.
Now the resource growth and progressively greater clarity each drill update on likelihood for bulk mining of the breccias mean the asset is slowly catching up to the crazy high valuation - hence not loads of reaction to 50% increases in reserve. Luckily the resource is obviously good enough that, over a few more years, it should justify a higher price eventually.
Fair value around low-mid 20s, increasing to low 30s once into production and with some good resource expansion outside of Havieron. Which is what I worked out two years ago with a DCF based on 20m ozs.
Wildcard development would be buy-out but still wouldn't command more than mid-high 20s at this time imo.
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I've never looked at any of the forum chatter, so dipping my toe in the water today out of curiousity was something of an eye opener - like you say, a pretty intense bunch! A lot of paranoia about shorters, price manipulation and all sorts of excitement, plus lots and lots on that magic 5% and all that. An entertaining lunchtime diversion, regardless!
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It's a place of true lunacy and tin foil hat-wearers. I stay away. I used to post the odd thing every few months to try to inject some reality (as I felt bad about people being deceived by pumpers) but you just end up getting labelled a member of massive conspiracy of short-sellers or some other 'anti-true faith'. It's nuts. Pretty much the opposite of how to deal with emotions in investing.
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Pete, any thoughts on TUN: Tungsten West. I've done little to no research - just wondering if you'd heard much about them?
I put 1% of my portfolio into TUN a couple of days ago, into my ISA and I'll add to this once the new tax year starts.
Third largest tungsten resource in the world and there's also a little tin.
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Obviously it's virtually unprecedented times in markets. If anyone reading this thread hasn't been through a bear market before and is invested in a generalist spread of companies, or god forbid low-quality/long duration tech at high multiples - now is probably not a good time to be trying to time market dips or chasing attractive things that you haven't researched, unless you thrill at playing roulette with your money. There are a lot of commodity peacocks in the market right now that look attractive but risk being bull-traps for the unwary.
The announcement this afternoon of US/UK dialling in a ban of Russian oil over the next few months was the thing I've been waiting and wondering about. It's the nuclear option, perhaps nuclear with a small 'n' but we'll see what the rest of Europe does. The scale of change potentially about to unfold in world markets is hard to grasp. Before the announcement of the ban, the oil and coal sector was already looking like a popular rotation for people trying to protect against losses. Now...
Overall the commodities thesis I began investing into 2017/18 is unaltered and stronger now than ever. Couldn't be more of a contrast to the overall markets. It amazes me more people didn't see the value in tin, copper, nickel and others commods much earlier.
To back up the base metals thesis, gold is now doing what gold does in times like this by providing a safe haven. The major gold producers' margins are leveraged by any rise in gold price and so are now printing money. The ones with the lowest costs are doing the best. Even some of the useless shitco gold/silver junior producers will probably fly on the coat-tails of the majors but I wouldn't touch them with a bargepole. Now's the time for large, solid, good-quality profitable and low-cost companies producing real 'stuff'.
I sold any remaining unprofitable tech companies last week - Trackwise and Illika - for large % losses, and moved into a short term position (months to one-year tops) on coal, US oil producers and US fertiliser producers. Also sold all my remaining Meridian Mining into strength for a 90% gain to buy coal/ferts/oil. Along with a short-term trade in NGEX for a 60% gain on a hunch that sentiment and money would flow into it off the back of Filo, it did, I sold.
The oil/coal/ferts is a popular rotation currently and prices are going parabolic as money moves over. If trying to chase things at the moment you're almost guaranteed to get spiked with the current price action, so anyone considering it better be confident you know what you're getting into, why you're getting into it, and how to spot momentum weakening on technical indicators so you know when its time to leave a rising market (which could already be very soon). It's a good time for short hedges!
A thesis for coal and oil - over and above the obvious supply shock - is that there's a distinct possibility that these sectors which have been slaughtered by ESG rules meaning funds had to divest and thus their price multiple being slashed, will re-rate their price multiple to EBITDA (in the US at least). That's on top of them printing huge profits while the world figures out how to hopefully now transition away even more quickly from oil/gas and coal.
Some of the current insane commodity rises e.g. Nickel aren't sustainable (it was Chinese Nickel producer Tsingshan being forced to cover a reportedly $5-6bn short position that squeezed Nickel yesterday and today). In general I'm expecting commodities to pull back at some point this year, as parts of the west almost certainly go into recession and demand destruction takes effect on 'stuff'. There's a very good fundamental reason why tin will remain more detached from the usual cycle of demand destruction than most other commodities, although tin will probably also fall back from recent highs eventually as it's spiked like everything else. (The reason btw is because it makes up one-tenth of a fuck-all of the input cost of everything it goes into, so can continue to rise by large amounts while other commods that make up a higher proportion of input cost - like copper - can't. Also because compared to other commods there's even more of a long-term supply scarcity of tin, in the face of long-term rise in demand due to everything the world's trying to achieve in the next 10-20 years). Copper probably won't stay elevated for very long in the short term unless wallstreetbet types get a hold of it, but more likely they'll do that with their favorite hype-metal silver when it starts rising.
In short it's a good time to either know your investment sectors very well and have been in early enough that you can sell into any ridiculous parabolic rises, or ignore markets for now and focus on other things. At least everyone with company pensions will be monthly averaging into the lows of markets, good time to be young and investing regular sums with 20-30 years economic growth ahead following the coming dip.
As per the last few years I'm still long high-quality, low-cost major producers or high-quality advanced-stage developers of energy transition metals:
tin (MLX,AFM)
nickel (CTM)
copper (Filo),
And gold: (Agnico - formerly Kirkland Lake, and GGP)
in addition to 5 new positions in major US/Canadian producers of:
oil
coal
fertiliser
royalty companies with exposure to Potash mines
* I'm not mentioning individual companies as I think it's such a volatile market with people speculating on these themes, that makes it a high risk approach and people should do their own research if choosing this approach.
Cash also making up a big chunk.
As far as any riskier stuff, the only things I still hold on to are GMG as my only battery/tech investment - its a strong long-term conviction investment and 3% of my PF. And two junior explorers for a binary yes/no trade on first discovery hole results due within the next month: Zacapa bought @ 0.59 - potential here for a large porphyry hit which would absolutely rocket this company - only 1% of my portfolio. And Artemis bought @ 0.70 - similar story to ZACA but less massive upside and lower quality management, again 1% of PF. Not a time to be bothering with any new high-risk investments.
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Yeah - I'm currently full of covid so have nothing better to do than ponder the of the world.
Sold nearly all my tech in the last 9 days, just left a few small positions in things I think have legs. Took some big losses in a couple but that's all part of the learning curve and there were also decent profits. Pantheon Resources was over 60% in a few weeks.
Haven't reduced Alphamin (my partner added more this week) and Filo remains my biggest holding at 40% of my PF. I'm starting to feel I need to trim some profits from it however.
I also am in ZACA, bought in at 60c and Artemis @ 0.8c.
Cycled some of the money from the sales into Corsa Coal amongst others, all with a stoploss once profits hit 25% I also placed some funds in silver explorers and miners this last few weeks, all doing well. Definitely buyer beware in the current climate.
Other than that, I've increased cash to 20% of PF, it seems prudent. To
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Yeah - I'm currently full of covid so have nothing better to do than ponder the of the world.
Sold nearly all my tech in the last 9 days, just left a few small positions in things I think have legs. Took some big losses in a couple but that's all part of the learning curve and there were also decent profits. Pantheon Resources was over 60% in a few weeks.
Haven't reduced Alphamin (my partner added more this week) and Filo remains my biggest holding at 40% of my PF. I'm starting to feel I need to trim some profits from it however.
I also am in ZACA, bought in at 60c and Artemis @ 0.8c.
Cycled some of the money from the sales into Corsa Coal amongst others, all with a stoploss once profits hit 25% I also placed some funds in silver explorers and miners this last few weeks, all doing well. Definitely buyer beware in the current climate.
Other than that, I've increased cash to 20% of PF, it seems prudent. To
Can I ask why you took big losses on some of your tech stocks? Do you believe they will never come back or just won't come back in the time period you are willing to be in the market?
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I can't answer for Kelvin obvs, but my reasons for getting rid of my (very few) tech shares for a loss are along the lines of:
I already won the game (and continue to keep winning it :ang:). With a longish term (3+ years now) conviction trade in a gold explorer, various very successful short-term trades in various resource companies, and with my long term conviction trades in tin, copper and nickel miners/developers. I call them 'conviction trades' as in I've had to hold through numerous 20 - 50% drops in price of various of those companies along the way to large gains.. that's the nature of these sectors.
..therefore I don't 'need' - as in it makes zero difference to my life - any potential gains (or to avoid any losses) by holding onto the very few tech losers in my PF until a time that they've recovered from the current market sentiment - which I believe could be some time.
I believe I see a better opportunity to more quickly recoup some of the losses incurred on those two tech shares, by putting it into an oil/ferts/coal investment which I believe has a higher probability over the next 12 months of doing better than if I'd left the cash in the two tech shares.
If this investment also failed, then it really doesn't matter to my overall position because the massive majority by % of my PF is in other things that have won big over time and continue to win.
But say it was a different world, where I didn't have a commodities focus and I'd invested heavily in overvalued tech shares over the last few years, and I was reliant on that capital growing (or not losing the capital at least), then I'd not be selling those losers right now at a time of significant weakness and I'd not be thinking it was a smart move for anyone who did. I'd be letting them sit there gathering dust in my PF until their time in the sun came again (or they went to zero in the nuclear winter..). It's rarely a smart idea to tinker with the core thesis in your portfolio - that's the classic mistake that most private investors make to change things too early. The best performing portfolios are those of dead investors etc.
So it comes down to what are the core investments, is the thesis still valid, and what's on the periphery that doesn't alter your overall wealth if you tinker/change, what short-term opportunities are there due to changing circumstances.
I should also say that I *still* wouldn't be doing the oil/coal/ferts trade if Russia hadn't invaded Ukraine, I'd just be leaving the two tech losers to gather dust and hopefully recoup one day. The world changed in the last three weeks like we haven't begun to understand and most (including the markets) didn't foresee the scale of the change (although I have to say I was aware of the ferts trade idea as early as last December from listening to some good eggs).
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Can I ask why you took big losses on some of your tech stocks? Do you believe they will never come back or just won't come back in the time period you are willing to be in the market?
I'm sure they'll come back at some point in the mid to long term but I honestly felt that I could use the money in the meantime to make profit elsewhere.
I will start to buy in monthly, the same tech, when I think they're near the bottom.
It's worked this last week - I'm 10% up on the portfolio (despite silver dropping) and on the tech cash I took, I was up 35%. So well worth making the effort to chop things about.
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Also, and this is much like Pete's initial reply - I've sorta already won or perhaps that should be, I'm happy with what I already have.
I have a couple of rental properties, zero debt and I guess I pretty much semi-retired at 50. I also know how to,
and often do, eek along on not much money.
So taking a big loss on those tech shares didn't seem to be so difficult, not in the grand scheme of things. The early 90s recession cost me so much more.
I also think that all the crazy swings in commodities since I started in July has finally numbed me a little, it's taken the emotion out of stocks a bit. I've had a down of almost 40% in a day, on one stock. The same can be said for ups. It's crazy, it's not for everyone but it's definitely made selling at a loss easier for me.
I started investing because my money was just sitting in the bank doing nothing. It was annoying after a while and those tech stocks would have been doing the same thing. Hopefully, the new shares will keep growing.
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Can I ask why you took big losses on some of your tech stocks? Do you believe they will never come back or just won't come back in the time period you are willing to be in the market?
BTW I'm basing my thinking about the broad outlook for markets on the matrix below, among other sources. It was released by Bloomberg on the first day of Russia’s invasion. I thought I’d posted it here a couple of weeks ago but it turns out I didn’t.
Clearly we’re in risk off, my assumption is a recession in Europe is coming in second half of 2022. This coming not long after the recent top for many well-known long-duration tech companies; the supply & demand shock of Covid; and the already strong rise in commodity prices resulting from Covid shock and big-money positioning around the whole energy transition process. Even following the recent correction much of the growth sector still has sky-high multiples.
Then either the world moves onward/upward, or worse-case it doesn't and we go into the dreaded stagflation with high inflation killing consumer demand and no growth in the economy. But it may all turn out rosy.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/lRp1KMkZFk_j-UJpro-DJUSjDTrZA0L3dWKXsWruAFgL6QgiS-Wt4OIZ7i9A1WwUfmfFvo0ar0HhE5V2KMNWprN6GnmzmDYK2mynAJrKGtH1sIcTKrSyOb1owEQPHRlkzrvN3ByX7vpBmFhd46j4x83LfXzyTl9eE4RBk4w8S1LSwu5eYXiXeYeNXBXT89WRFqpdo6Y-bWRksUzuAzT4b6yA0gjg6Ytca1lYtRGxHdsB38yK9YjIQMTBJ1_UXkVVj3DMDPHHERmf8Mt12qAysM8OlgGzjXVG0Z5bqmpznikreJe_T2V3AL-vD1_F-xWoh9ilGBvB78su6c9xaD9qWm14Ht54EW3rfSyiRK6kjs3gejv3xz_y0uyAYtBK13bO1_PoE8tT7Pj0Geo8dqKwBkNds7R0sy-732y3Cumztw6NatF0M-cCr9tUs3c4sHCz60TbqiVzH6N8_C80rfK8pVGduZlEjxOiqlXxyri3MOhUcVNAMzPk9-wFdojGEabKiIJivxbdwsJHa1V75c-2EZfY6qLhDCJ5KPaBFeIaECLsHt1Zk3FCQrsH4_BYVyv23ZOSn8OOeCKYksmkGyxxCFHedxhpSjq2eEIlfQasobrq767cBoZM9USZXKpq5g4veQLCHtbvvTCj_OGlSSrU5lI4pZ7V-XoZe8Rpp8Azqel4VRpv6yX_Js6HwCXmO7qfpFgBGfsrTXP4tuQqSlKZvB4=w821-h815-no?authuser=0)
In the first, a swift end to fighting prevents a further upward spiral in commodity markets, keeping U.S. and European economic recoveries just about on track. Central bankers would have to tweak their plans, not scrap them.
In the second scenario, a prolonged conflict, tougher Western response and disruptions to Russia's oil and gas exports would deliver a bigger energy shock and a major blow to global markets. That would likely take ECB rate hikes off the table this year, while Fed tightening would slow down.
A worst-case outcome would see Europe’s gas supply cut off, triggering a recession, while the U.S. would see significantly tighter financial conditions, a bigger hit to growth, and a markedly more dovish Fed.
Wars are inherently unpredictable, and the actual outcome is likely to be messier than any of these stylized versions. Wild swings in financial markets Thursday illustrated the uncertainty. Still, the scenarios should help frame thinking about possible paths ahead.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-02-25/war-in-ukraine-how-the-ukraine-russia-conflict-could-impact-the-global-economy
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do you have any links to introductions to equity valuation, or any interesting papers?
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What type of companies are you interested in Sean? I can point you to overviews of methods of equity valuation, but it depends on the specific sector as to how to apply the different methods. For mining companies I use a DCF* for developers and producers, along with peer comparison valuation methods such as EV per resource or EV per reserve oz. While for explorers I'd mostly use in-ground EV/per oz. But these methods aren't relevant for, for instance, retail companies (DCF is relevant, but the inputs for the DCF would be different to the inputs for an oil company for e.g.).
There are various sources online for learning the basics of valuation. Investopedia is always good for an overview and usually has links to explore:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/valuation.asp#:~:text=Valuation%20is%20a%20quantitative%20process%20of%20determining%20the,valuation%E2%80%94each%20of%20which%20may%20produce%20a%20different%20value.
Also various online sources that offer courses (I'd never pay for this stuff) but also give out free info:
Basics
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/valuation/valuation-methods/
Mining specific
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/course/mining-industry-financial-model-valuation/
I learnt how to create a DCF from a couple of people through an investors group I used to be a member of. One a pensions fund manger and the other a researcher. Once you have the template it's fairly straightforward. Knowing the value of the inputs and how realistic the assumptions are is the difficult part, and how sensitive to change of any inputs the overall valuation is. There comes a point where you realise even the best DCF is very fuzzy.
Ultimately trading successfully in specific shares is a mix of a science and an art. Because a significant part of a company's share price is affected by investor sentiment and other intangibles to do with humans not being entirely rational. There's overshoot and undershoot which is where you find the best gains. Scientific valuation methods do an imperfect job of capturing this side of the game, but valuation should be the underlying foundation to work from imo. (most pi's don't bother and just take a punt on gossip).
* A spreadsheet showing the net present value of future cash flows discounted to the present day.
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Hope people took or are taking their profits in Cornish Metals. Today's funding news with 1-to-1 warrants @27p within 3 years puts a cap on price growth imo. Might be a good trade at 18p if you can get shares in the offer.
My opinion on the economics of South Crofty haven't changed. Money pit.
https://www.ft.com/content/a6543314-dfc8-40fb-af2f-0538fadac851
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Alphamin just released the expected update to its resource estimate for the Mpana South portion of its tin mine.
Any investors here who've done their homework will be aware that Mpana North currently produces 4% of the world's tin and gave EBITDA for year-ended 2021 of $200m @ an average tin sale price of $30,600. The final quarter of 2021 saw an average tin sale price of $38,000 and $75m in that quarter alone.
Forward estimates for financial year 2022 are EBITDA of $300m+ (conservative estimate), at an average tin price of $38,500. Current tin price, $43,000.
Alphamin are already undervalued based just on production from Mpana North, and have been steadily grinding higher as I've no doubt been boring people by pointing out. This updated resource estimate and confirmation of decision to mine the South (which is directly adjacent to the existing mine and can be accessed using existing infrastructure) has just increased Alphamin's likely forward earnings estimate within the next 19 months by another 65%.
The Mpana South updated resource estimates annual production of 7,200 tons by year-end 2023 (Mpana North annual production = 11,000 tons, increasing to 12 - 13,000 in 2022), for an EBITDA of $187m at $40,000 tin price. The capex required to build MS will be less than a year's earnings and will come from cash reserves - Alphamin have zero debt and paid investors a dividend in January.
2023-24 annual tin production estimate of 20,000 tons, or 6.6% of global supply.
Those reading the update will note the intention for continued regular resource updates throughout the year.
Simply one of the best available value and growth shares combined*, as I've been noting for well over a year. This will either go to $1.50 - $2 or get halted and bought out at a premium to market price, imo.
The tin thesis is also propelling MLX steadily higher, if people want a lower risk jurisdiction than the DRC. Risk on the horizon for AFM is that higher fertiliser prices leading to food shortages in the second half of 2022 will impact African countries hardest.
* CVR Partners (UAN) another one.
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Interesting you mention CVR Partners Pete - seems to be lots of noise about this one and I do have a small position already. Seems to be plenty of upside for the next six months or so but like anything else with the war ongoing, a recession looming, governments making odd decisions everywhere... anything past six months is a guess.
Today I parted company with Itafos Inc (fertiliser), bought 14 March and left with a 36% profit. Also sold K&S (fertiliser) for a 22% profit, bought on the 8th March. CVR looks like it has more upside going forwards than these two, so I'll put some of those funds there.
Elsewhere, big thanks to Pete for the nod to Filo - I spent an evening this week running through all the latest news, updates etc and I'm happily to keep letting this one ride. Lots of people thinking to take profits at $20, completely understandable but I honestly don't know where I'd put them and feel as happy on a risk/reward basis.
Currently, it's all going okay. Made some rubbish decisions at the start and that's cost me dearly. The maxim being don't lose money and I lost far too much but slowly getting there. This thread was invaluable, all of the links have been useful, as is the #mintwit community on Twitter and I feel like I've turned the corner - I'm currently up 38% since I started in July and it feel like I've got the basic beginner mistakes out of the way now.
Cheers to everyone who posts, especially those who's comments have tempered my overexuberance in new endeavours.
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Doing well with +38% in less than a year, especially if you started with losses. Last year was a bull market so not a great deal of stock-picking skills needed to make money :) but this year (and likely the next few years) will likely prove harder to make profits in the market unless you're in the right things at the right times.. not an easy thing to get right in volatile markets with lots of noise distraction.
Here's a wealth preservation tip for anyone owning commodity companies in a rising trend right now..
Learning some basic charting will prove v.useful for helping to stay focussed and not getting ruffled by volatility. A useful tactic for stocks in strong uptrends (pf flex incoming..) i.e. many oil/gas companies, Alphamin, Filo, MLX, Centauras Metals, Mosiac, CVR Partners, Altius Minerals, Glencore, Whitehaven, GGP (until they weren't).. is to zoom out on the timescale to observe the monthly timeline - continue holding shares in strong uptrends until price closes below the 12-month moving average. Sometimes price will spike down through the 12 month MA on an intra-period timescale, but not close out the period below the 12MA (hence may continue rising after you may have sold out). For the really committed there are lots of other signals you can learn to help stack the odds in your favour of identifying when uptrends and downtrends are ending, but price crossing the 12MA is an easy one to spot for anyone. You can get tradingview for free to do this.
Happy days with Filo, it's been almost a complete zero-brainer since April 2021 - simply the best large-scale copper discovery to be invested in. All you need to do is hold and it will be higher over time. It will dip, like everything dips, there'll come a point once it hits the 20s where the early birds will start selling (i.e. me, I'm up over 400% now and it makes up 20%+ of my portfolio so I'll slice some profits above 20 while keeping a position for the very long-term). So I'd expect slower growth above 20 in theory due to rotation out for the early ones and rotation in for the next group of investors e.g. longer-term instos and later to the party pi's. One of the next catalysts, other than drilling results, is Filo getting added to the GDXJ index. The index rebalances quarterly and the last rebalance was March 19th. When this happens then the Vaneck fund will buy a large number of Filo shares on the market. Happened with GGP in autumn of 2020 and various other explorers that hit big. Not guaranteed Filo will get added on the next rebalance but it's an inevitability sooner or later.
Exploration-wise to explode again would take a step-out hole away from the hole 41 area showing a second high-grade zone. That's far from guaranteed, the good thing is it doesn't need to be as the resource is only growing over time and it's still early. The only real long-term uncertainty with Filo is whether it goes 1.5x from here or 5x. That said they're still awaiting Argentine fiscal stability agreement and there's still the results on the arsenic to come out to determine processing cost impact. I suppose the world could end.. But the world's biggest copper discovery in recent years at a time copper is entering the early stages of a bull market due to a once in a lifetime transition from hydrocarbons to renewables, requiring more copper than ever before, in an historically underfunded copper exploration market, is a once in a lifetime opportunity.
I mentioned UAN back in early February as the fertiliser company I wanted to invest in but couldn't (about the only share II won't let me buy). Instead I bought MOS (nitrogen and potash ferts) and ALS (royalties on potash mining). Looks like it's going to continue to do really well - the value calcs are in the link I posted (below). On top of strong share price growth it's going to be paying a very chunky dividend this year (% currently unannounced but high double digits?).
Another value play that I'd love to invest in but can't is UAN. At least I can't invest in my ISA, I think I could over the phone into my general account but can't be bothered with the CGT that will likely result. It's a US nitrogen fertiliser company called CVR Partners (ticker UAN). They're benefitting from higher prices in the US market but also a number of factors coming together at the current time, including the current nat gas price hikes in Europe making fertiliser imports to the US more expensive, and unrest and sanctions in Ukraine/Belarus/Russia shutting down nitrogen fertiliser exports from those areas. Check out this value thesis underwritten by a large dividend, with a double (or higher) in sp growth thrown in. It's quite compelling:
https://plumcapital.substack.com/p/uan-plums-best-commodities-play
Since I sold my two UK tech losers and rotated the funds into oil, coal and ferts they've all been doing well (bought Occidental the same week as Warren Buffet bought $4billion on the market, Altius Minerals, Mosiac, Whitehaven and Glencore the others). Although I notice some signs of life in Illika - government supposedly releasing their delayed energy strategy imminently, maybe that has something to do with it. Battery storage an essential piece of renewables growth but the solid-state tech still only moving forwards slowly towards scale up.
Polarean came out of their 6-month hibernation yesterday with a 25% tick up on news that they resubmitted their new drug/device application to the FDA. Remember this is the company with the polarised xenon gas imaging technology, used with existing MRI's and which allows superior imaging of damaged lung tissue. Well worth researching them it's great technology, being used in various lung-function studies currently underway in UK, Europe and the US.
They had their application knocked back by the FDA in October last year for some supposedly minor issues related to manufacturing (hence tanking by 50% on decision day). A decision on the reapplication is expected within 6 months, expect on October 1st to see this either go to interstellar space or to crash and burn. Large uncertainty but if successful then price will likely multiply many times as this is a v.big deal commercially and they'll almost certainly get taken out by a big player. Not one for putting a lot of money into as it's completely binary, success/failure is in the hands of the FDA. (I have 1.5% of pf). Last year in the lead up to FDA decision the price went to £1 on investors buying in anticipation. Price currently 65p. Once bitten twice shy? Or will people think there's a higher likelihood of success second time around.
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Examples illustrating the pattern of obeying the 12MA in an uptrend. Note these aren't recommendations at this point in time (except Filo) as I got in early to some of these companies (the latest being Glencore, WHC, MOS, OXY and ALS). They'll all stop rising eventually, some perhaps suddenly.
All are monthly timescale, blue line is the 12MA (red the 36MA). I think I'm correct in saying that in each case once price closed above the 12MA at the beginning of the uptrend, it didn't close a period below it until present day. Price spiked down to the 12MA intra-period (notice the narrow 'wicks'), but the MA provided support.
GGP rode the 12MA and then you can clearly see it closing below, and commencing downtrend. It's currently hugging the 36MA for dear life (to me the evidence suggests it's now turned, but I could be wrong).
(https://i.imgur.com/STINItL.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/S97QM2y.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/7VPFwXt.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/BIDVKvY.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/tmlGEIO.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/TpeV8c2.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/TtFf6Ba.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/rEsErnL.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/2k5eLEt.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/M4B5prX.png)
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Thanks for 12MA guidance, I'll have a look later and play about with it - just about able to read a graph now!
Regarding UAN - ii happily let me buy it on my laptop in my trading account but won't let me buy it on my phone app and certainly not in my ISA which I really don't understand. I've had a few times this year we're ii hasn't let me have access to things that are on the TSXV, which is nonsense when I have lots on there already.
Just did a quick check of this year's Q1 and I'm around 29% up, which is staggering to me, I only had the goal of beating ISA interest when I started.
There have been losers as well tho (I'll possibly sell these two next week) in Visibility, a data harvesting point of sale company which I still think has got a great future and Powerhouse Energy Group - a wonderful hydrogen set up that can turn plastic waste into hydrogen power. I'm around 50% down on both but would happily bag hold if I had to. I still have some Scottish Mortgage on a 20% loss but will start adding to monthly once the new tax year starts, although I'm expecting that to drop much further this year.
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Here's a wealth preservation tip for anyone owning commodity companies in a rising trend right now..
Learning some basic charting will prove v.useful for helping to stay focussed and not getting ruffled by volatility. A useful tactic for stocks in strong uptrends (pf flex incoming..) i.e. many oil/gas companies, Alphamin, Filo, MLX, Centauras Metals, Mosiac, CVR Partners, Altius Minerals, Glencore, Whitehaven, GGP (until they weren't).. is to zoom out on the timescale to observe the monthly timeline - continue holding shares in strong uptrends until price closes below the 12-month moving average. Sometimes price will spike down through the 12 month MA on an intra-period timescale, but not close out the period below the 12MA (hence may continue rising after you may have sold out). For the really committed there are lots of other signals you can learn to help stack the odds in your favour of identifying when uptrends and downtrends are ending, but price crossing the 12MA is an easy one to spot for anyone. You can get tradingview for free to do this.
Investing.com uses Trading View's charts and data but their free version has fewer limits than Trading View's.
Blocking their ads is recommended if you have a low tolerance for annoying popups.
If you really want to go to town on charts, Koyfin is great for the markets that they cover in real-time.
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Pete (and others): What's your general strategy regarding taking profits/holding on if a junior mining stock shoots up to crazy levels on a short term basis?
If they haven't yet reached your calculated valuation but are looking very frothy in the short term, do you hold on to your entire holding or do you look to take some profits as momentum tails off? (potentially looking to buy back in after they have pulled back a bit?)
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You'll probably be unsurprised at my reply: without knowing more information I couldn't give one answer or general strategy. Other than the standard - wealth preservation is important for long-term portfolio growth, whilst every really large gain made in mining shares involved large drops along the way. Rarely large reward without commensurate risk.
To give a better answer would need context. The main factors I'd be considering are:
1. what stage of development are this company at? Are they a junior explorer with a few early discovery holes, many exploration holes, an extensively drilled-out project, a development stage company with a PFS/DFS and permitting in place, are they fully-financed for the capex, a company approaching first ore, or are they a producer.
2. what's their market cap? What does this price them at on a Enterprise Value per-ounce/per-lb basis, or an EBITDA multiple if they're producing? How does this valuation compare to other similar companies in the sector.
3. what's the company's share structure and cash position? Do management own significant shares? Other institutions invested? Are there options and/or warrants outstanding? If so when are these likely to hit the market. Any pre-IPO shares held in escrow? How much cash do they have, how much do they need for the next stage in progression? When is a raise likely?
4. what's the geology and minerology? i.e. what type of deposit is it? What's the potential for resource growth and is this priced in?
5. what's the jurisdiction? Is it high-risk or low-risk.
6. what's the commodity price doing - is it high, low? What about the outlook. What are the long-term drivers of commodity price and what are the risks.
7. what's the market sentiment and sentiment in this sector currently?
8. what are the technicals on the chart suggesting?
Sorry if that's not very useful.
The above factors and more would help me decide firstly what % of my pf I'd invest, and what my hopes and expectations were and what timeline.
I could give concrete examples for different companies but it would be a very long post.
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I see First Tin has done it's IPO and is available. Good play?
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I see First Tin has done it's IPO and is available. Good play?
My own feelings are inflation might do for them, a bit like it has for Tungsten West. Still only invested in Alphamin for tin and they are asking for offers for the company currently, so at some point a move to MLX looks on the cards.
Well, it's been a few mad weeks with big drops most weeks and a recovery. Feels like I'm learning a lot and still managing to hit an ATH every week this year but I'm being ruthless at cutting things when it feels time to. I tried having a look at Trading View and it's going to take me a while to get fluid with that but still finding it easier to follow 20 and 50 week averages with ii. There's definitely value to be had, certainly when it come to timing purchases and sells. Most of the time it feels like I could have done better.
Been cleaning up my portfolio a little recently with the goal to hold some more cash.
Sold my last Pantheon shares, overall up 61% and although there still a great chance of a rerate upwards, I felt I was happy with that.
Sold out of ZACA with a 27% profit, didn't feel right and then they plummeted back to almost my purchase price.
Sold of out Tungsten West with a loss of 6% after they announced they were halting work at the mine due to inflation.
Sold out of Horizonte Minerals, had watched them for ages but not committed and then an opportunity for a day trade came up whilst I was on holiday. Paid for lunch.
Day trade on Tullurian gave a 5% profit. (bought with FOMO and sold when my sensible head took over)
Sold out of Millenium PMs for a profit also, can't remember what tho.
Oh yeah, sold Meridian for a small profit also.
Sold half of my FILO and then bought most of them back inside my ISA, keeping those for the long term but still need to make up my mind when to sell the others. A complete no brainer this one.
Sierra Madre is ticking along nicely at a 30% profit. Plenty of money to drill, no warrants (that makes a change) and insider buying ongoing.
UAN/CVR Partners as Pete recommended is also doing quite well, even after Thu and Friday's blood letting.
Had my first dividend from Franco Nevada - bought this as a long term hold with my sensible head.
Started monthly investing in Anglo Pacific on the LSE
Also bought some Whitehaven Coal down in Aus, they're going to have plenty of cash to divi out this year and since the multifuel stove on the narrowboat of our main source of heating, that's my hedge for domestic bills.
Still not keeping much cash but do have a plan and can move to 30% cash quickly. Expecting recession.
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Was going to post on here over the weekend but just a quickie. Overall market sentiment will always beat fundamentals - that's how value is created and that's what we're seeing this week with high quality companies getting sold off along with the garbage. Always happens. Some investors who either need to move to cash or who need the cash to pay losses in a tanking market - institution and private - have to sell no matter the long-term quality of the company. Some amazing opportunities due to the drops in Filo and Alphamin currently, no apparent fundamental reason for the drop in AFM and it's now trading at an insanely low multiple to forward earnings - one of the best value play out there as noted by Value Situations (https://valuesits.substack.com/p/weekly-bulletin-11?s=r), and now also a special sit with a buy-out potentially in play: https://twitter.com/ValueSituations/status/1524120849984503809.
Filo, prepare to be amazed is all I can say. All you need is patience. The drill assay released after market hours yesterday shows bonanza grades despite being terminated before reaching target depth. It extends the volume of the hole 41 area by huge amount of tonnage and changes the understanding of hole 41 feeder zone. Up 18% in Stockholm market this morning (Lundin family s Swedish and they list on the local market as well as Canada). Drops in these companies are massive opportunities for those with steady nerves and good research. Easy for me to say as I'm up many hundreds of % in both, but I'll be buying more on the open if I can get a decent price.
In case that all sounds too positive I should add that, overall, this market is a great place to be out of and just sitting on the side-lines with cash waiting for bargains to appear from the wreckage. Could be a long wait.
I see First Tin has done it's IPO and is available. Good play?
Absolutely not. I read their prospectus pre listing and decided against at the listing price of 30-odd p. It was overpriced then, now in this inflation environment and this market sentiment they're toast until things recover imo. All the miners, even the largest most efficient like Agnico, are suffering margin reductions due to higher input costs. And all developers are having to revisit the capex estimates within their PFS/DFS studies. The absolute worst place to be in the market right now (apart from unprofitable tech) is a junior resource developer with a out of date Capex estimate trying to open a mine for a commodity after the mania for tin has subsided (for now...), in Germany with all its energy woes (I know thy also have the mine they're trying to open in Australia). That said if they tank some more I could be interested. Both sentiment and fundamentals are against them.
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There we are, one market close later and a 30% day for Filo (7.5% for AFM). Can't keep stories like these down for very long even in bear markets. Hope someone took advantage.
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There we are, one market close later and a 30% day for Filo (7.5% for AFM). Can't keep stories like these down for very long even in bear markets. Hope someone took advantage.
Yeah, quite the day that Pete - good news and a bounce in the market combined made for a big day.
I didn't benefit as sold out all my Filo a while before, I'd doubled my investment and wanted to buy some other things and have some cash (my partner has Filo also, so still sorta involved) but did bid at CAD17 as it was so low. It went even lower but I didn't get any and then it jumped. If it drops again this week I might bid again.
Also sold a huge chunk of Alphamin at CAD1.08 and bought back at 99c - used the profit to finally enter MLX at AUS 51c. That all worked out perfectly apart from Alphamin going even lower to sub 90 before rising. Happy to finally be in MLX. Tin price is dropping currently but the long term thesis is still there.
Mostly in cash currently, around 70%, and waiting patiently and if I'm honest expecting to wait a while for the true bottom.
Used some of that Filo cash to open a position in Vertex, a small refinery company in the US who make diesel out of used engine oil. Bought in at $9.88, doubled my position on Thu at $12.44 to 10% of PF and then watched it rip over 15% on Fri. There's a bit too much talk, almost like a pump and dump but the fundamentals look good currently - I may jump half back out of this later today, in expectation of another fall in equities this week at some point but that might be completely wrong! Not advice that's for sure.
Like Pete - trying to be sensible and stay mostly cash, waiting for bargains. The portfolio is much better balanced now that Filo isn't 50% of it and Alphamin and Vertex are currently at 10% each.
Expecting another volatile week, hope everyone is playing safe.
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Approaching midpoint of the year. With US markets firmly in bear market territory I reviewed my portfolio to see how it's holding up year-to-date compared to the indices.
Due to events everyone is by now familiar with - high inflation, Ukraine/Russia, Fed tightening, interest rate rises, continued supply chain pressures and market sentiment shifting out of tech/growth - in March I finally got interested enough to invest in oil/gas and coal for the first time in 20 years of investing. I also invested in US fertiliser producers and base/precious metals royalty streamers - as inflation doesn't impact royalty company margins to the extent it does the producers, who have to pay higher input costs of production (and thus lose some of the margin leverage) in inflationary periods. I sold 2 of the 3 tech stocks I owned for a loss (Illika and Trackwise).
The premise behind choosing US producers was that they were less exposed to divesting Russian assets, lower (perceived) risk of having windfall taxes levied against them, and less exposure to high costs of production - e.g. high gas prices for European fertiliser production. This worked well, and I sold after 2 months for small gains in Occidental, Exxon and Mosiac (fertiliser). I could have held and sold higher but gains are hard to come by in this market, so I'm happy to take gains and move it to the safe harbour of cash. Interestingly, Biden announced last Thursday that the US gov will shortly begin attempting to impose windfall taxes on US oil/gas producers, though it looks unlikely to get through congress and senate.
The investment case for Australian coal appeared compelling in March and I think it remains so. A look at the forward price for Newcastle coal (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal) helps illustrate. European countries had to pivot away from using Russian coal for power generation and steel-making and start purchasing coal from elsewhere. 'Elsewhere' includes Australia (https://www.dw.com/en/how-can-the-eu-survive-without-russian-coal/a-61379128),. This increase in demand for non-Russian coal has recently been compounded further, by those European countries most exposed to reliance on Russian gas for gas-fired power generation needing to come up with solutions to the issue of replacing Russian gas. These nations have now started starting up mothballed coal-fired power stations held in reserve to provide a temporary uplift in generating capacity - Germany, among other nations, is reportedly dusting the cobwebs off redundant coal-fired power stations for a capacity uplift (https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/germany-reactivates-coal-power-plants-amid-russian-gas-supply-threats/) while it tries to retreat from reliance on Russian gas.
It doesn't take a macro genius to see the pressure points and macro commodity/energy dynamic that Putin is trying to exploit here with his cuntery, and the problems he's forcing on the west right at a moment in history when the west is trying to make a once-in-a-century energy transition away from fossil fuel to renewables and which had to involve willingly downscaling its own short-term fossil fuels energy resilience (https://insideclimatenews.org/news/15102020/germany-coal-transition/) as a (completely necessary) part of that process.
Putin.. what a piece of shit eh. This is why we can't have nice things (yet).
Meanwhile, the usual demand for Australian coal from China and SE Asia for power generation and steel production remains strong. That’s the demand side for coal.
On the supply side there, there appears less potential for short-notice scale-up of extra coal supplies hitting the market than there is for oil/gas. The declining coal price over the last decade and withdrawal of capital due to ESG policies has resulted in a lack new mine construction, hence there not being loads of spare capacity. It takes years to construct mines. This picture of fundamental supply/demand squeeze is before you start getting into any gains from frothy investor sentiment moving into what it perceives as a trending theme. I’m assuming the strong coal price is a 1-2 year price cycle playing out, and my guesstimation is the coal price has more strength behind it than the oil price, for reasons outlined above, also because coal has flown under the political radar compared to oil/gas, maybe due to people not filling up their cars with lumps of magnetite and delivery/production costs not linked much to price of coal. It matter not for producers, a price rise is a prise rise and a producer's margins are leveraged to whatever the commodity price.
If I'm right then there’s still a gap between what has so far been priced in for certain coal producers, versus the profits those producers are generating and may continue to generate – i.e. plenty of upside still to be had. This is partly a result of the bargain-basement valuations that the major coal producers are rising up from after a decade of declining share prices and being shunned by investment capital like autistic kids at a party.
If I'm wrong, then the last quarter and next quarter's revenue is still off the charts; a decent capital gain will have been made; and free cash flow will still be distributed to shareholders in the summer.
Hopefully this dynamic is relatively short-lived, while Europe figures out how to transition away from its reliance on cheap fossil fuels for electricity generation and especially fossil fuels from belligerent fascist states. Because, while I’ll take profits from this inevitable market reaction to a global supply/demand dynamic created by an asshole exploiting short-sighted policy choices of western governments, I’d much rather the west was further along the road to transitioning to low carbon renewables and coal/gas supply shocks weren't still the gamechanger they currently are. But we are where we are, and this energy price environment is going to happen whatever your politics. So while Australian coal producers are rising from the grave like a zombie in an ESG nightmare, and generating huge profits like it's the 1990 again, I'll use that market and try to profit from the companies profiting. It might cover my increased energy bill...
Australian producer Whitehaven has benefitted from coal’s price rise. The company is currently generating turnover of (Aus)$2bn per quarter of Aus$2bn, with EBITDA of around $1.5bn per quarter, on a market cap of only $5.5bn. This is a very low ratio… and market cap was 25% lower when I bought in March. This enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio compares with a typical range of between 4 to 15 enterprise value x EBITDA, depending on sector. (Some profitable tech companies have ratios in the 30s – Amazon averaged 33 x enterprise value to EBITDA from 2017-2022.)
Even at a suppressed enterprise value/EBITDA multiple of 2 - 3 typical of the coal sector since ESG mandated withdrawal of capital, Whitehaven is still under-priced on current earnings. The company is debt-free and in the process of share buy-backs, with further buy-backs expected to be announced at August earnings. I'll continue holding in the expectation of further capital gain and what's estimated to be a large dividend of 12-20% on my original investment. Dividend and further buy-backs to be declared at August earnings. One that Simon might want to investigate on his value hunt. ;)
Overall, the markets are in high-risk bear mode now following a decade-long bull market. Good quality companies' share prices will suffer along with garbage should there be any dramatic crash (versus the mostly tech-centric fall so far). In this market I'm keeping a higher proportion in cash than over the last few years, to be able to buy into things I’m confident will rebound strongly should there be a crash. The US oil/gas and fertiliser producers do appear compelling trends, but I'm unconvinced that much of the price rises due to supply issues haven't now been priced in and that it isn't a bit of a thematic bubble forming and sentiment isn't going to turn south with demand potentially waning in second half of the year. I'm more convinced that the supply/demand picture is stronger for coal, as mentioned above. Happy to be wrong about oil/gas, and if the strong uptrend continues I'll be looking at TA momentum and oversold/overbought indicators for occasional short-term trades in some of the US oil producers. If playing the short-term game in shares in strong uptrend patterns, price dipping into the zone between 13-26 daily MA is a useful buying signal. Taking a few % being the goal.
Things that I'm holding longer term - mostly the metals - are companies whose demand/supply picture I'm fairly confident about in the long term and am prepared to sit through value being wiped out in any crash, as I believe these particular metals stocks would come back the hardest and fastest due to the quality of the assets, global policy of electrification not going away, and there being no forecasts of surplus supply of metals required for said policy (in fact the opposite).
Individual stocks in my PF listed below, with YTD performance and my own gain/loss since date of purchase (some bought since the start of 2022, others are multi-year holdings). YTD performance is fairly arbitrary as it's taken from the difference between closing price on Dec 31st 2021 and last Thursday's closing price. Some stocks change significantly daily*, for e.g. if you'd taken MLX's closing price from Dec 30th instead of 31st the performance would be -3% instead of -19%.
Interesting to see the differences between many of the commodities/energy stocks this year versus the main indices.
Indices performances, year to date (figures from market close Thursday. Weds for the UK):
FTSE 100: +2%
FTSE All-Share: -1%
Dow Jones Industrial Average: -9%
S&P500: -13%
Nasdaq: -22%
ASX 200: -4.6%
Portfolio performance year to date: +22%
Happy with that in a high-risk market in a downtrend. Consistently beating the index is the goal, which I’ve managed to do for the last 5.5 years. Otherwise may as well invest in a low-risk index tracker.
New additions or sells during 2022 below. Performance is year to date, performance since my purchase date in brackets:
Osisko Gold Royalties: -2.5% (+1%) Mid-term hold. Gold royalties streamer.
Anglo Pacific: +20.7% (-9%) Long term hold. Royalty streamer for cobalt, vanadium, copper, coal.
Altius Minerals: +16% (-14%) Long term hold. Royalty streamer for potash, renewables, coal, copper, nickel.
Whitehaven Coal: +107% (+32.9%, plus estimated divi of ~12-18% August) Hold for divi and re-assess.
Touchstone Exploration -1.5% (-4.7%) Hold for September production and cash flow.
MLX: -19% (+34%) Sold ½ for +38%. Holding remainder.
NGEX Minerals: Sold all for +38.5% Short-term trade.
Zacapa: -28% (-20%) Sold 1/5 for +18.5%. Remainder held for somewhat binary result of assays pending from 'Redtop'.
NICO Resources: Sold all for +100%. Shares allocation from a spin-off for shareholders of MLX.
Meridian Mining: Sold remaining for +62.5%
Filo: Sold around 1/5 at various prices between $20.50 – $26.50 for around +400%. Still largest holding in PF.
Alphamin: Sold around 1/7 at $1.20 for +120%. Holding remainder. Concern over war with Rwanda, always going to be the risk with investing in DRC.
Illika: Sold all for 49% loss.
Trackwise Designs: Sold all for 71.9% loss
Glencore: Sold all for +2.5% Short-term trade. Would consider re-purchasing dips to the 50 day MA if it remains in a strong uptrend.
Mosiac: Sold all for +2.3%. Short-term trade.
Occidental: Sold all for +3.2% Short-term trade. If trend continues then I’d consider further short-term trades on dips into the 13-26 zone on daily MA.
Exxon Mobil: Sold all for +1.5% Short-term trade. If trend continues then I’d consider further short-term trades on dips into the 13-26 zone on daily MA.
Diana Shipping: +63% (+3.5%) A northstar tip, bought mainly on TA - bought this week on breakout and backtest of multi-year resistance. Target is 7.90. A bit of fundamental involved too - obviously shipping companies are making good revenue in current climate. Diana have flipped from a loss last year to profit this year according to the last quarter’s earnings and forecasts for rest of year. Also has a good divi yield.
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Edit, double post.
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Edit, double post.
Nice work on a hefty profit figure for the year. After giving us all the nod on FILO, you deserve it.
Lots of my friends are down considerably, mostly due to tech crashing, and are really despondent.
I've gone much in the same direction as you Pete - I had a look at what we use for energy and tried to hedge the costs by buying stocks in associated companies. So far, it's working really well.
We use mainly coal (smokeless) to heat the boat. Diesel for movement and some heating, plus some mains electric. The vehicles are both diesel.
Whitehaven was the obvious choice to buy in thermal coal, although twinning that with New Hope seemed wise to me. Pete's outlined all the reasons for Whitehaven. A no-brainer unless a windfall tax sweeps all before it. Huge dividend expected from both.
Lots of noise about taxing windfalls currently, so sold most of my Petrotal on the LSE, all my Vertex, Val and RIG in the US, Journey and Vermilion in Canada. Still have Meg Energy and also Western Energy - jumped in on Western on Thu and bought shares worth 8% of my PF at CAD0.04. They closed on Friday up 37.5% on the day. If only all Fridays were like that and my timing always as perfect. The fundamentals seemed strong, I have no TA but they had huge debt and had to massively increase the share count which killed the price. Now, with manageable debt they should get to 20c fairly quickly. I'll take out my original investment sometime soon and let the rest run.
Completely covered all my energy bills for the year and some. I know it's gonna be really tough for some and appreciate just how priveliged I am to be able to do this.
Other than that, bought some Filo again at something over CAD21 and as normal, it's doing well. I think it's hole 60 that's released soon - be interesting to see what it does on the news.
Today, I bought some Yellow Cake on the LSE. I just can't imagine how we keep up with current energy usage without nuclear, let alone grow it for EVs. It is currently cheap as chips used to be.
What else? Ah, the royalty thing for the same reasons as Pete. Bought a basketful - Franco Nevada, Black Stone, Freehold, Anglo Pacific and Altius.
Still thinking a recession will hit at some point, so currently about 50/50 cash and equities. No bonds, shorts, calls, puts etc and definitely no debt.
It's been a head scratching year that's for sure and as a beginner at investing, I was definitely too slow to react to the tech crash and the recent mini crash that happened across the board. I've also probably traded far too much. I'm certainly expecting the unexpected nowadays however and that's no bad thing. Up 34.4% for the year, which I'm chuffed to bits with.
I hope everyone is doing as well, if not better and still finding things that make sense in the current situation.
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A couple of pieces of reading some investors might find interesting.
Firstly the Moneyvator blog (http://monevator.com) this weekend has a link to a metastudy on 'the behaviour of individual investors': https://alphaarchitect.com/2022/07/individual-investor-behavior-what-does-the-research-say/
..which reinforces what every investor should be aware of: that, on average, active investors will perform worse than the market and therefore you - probably being average - should probably invest in low-cost tracker funds and forget stock-picking, unless you have evidence of some sort of edge.
Second, a link to a memo from Howard Marks on the attributes of those non-average investors who do beat the market. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/howard-marks-3-attributes-of-investors-who-will-always-outperform
(link to the full pdf is at the bottom of the linked page)
Both make good reading.
Various commodities swooned over the last couple of months. Nothing unusual, it’s what commodities do. The key to resource investing (all investing) is getting into quality companies early in a cycle, or on pullbacks in an overall rise. Or, if you're just a riding a momentum bubble then be aware of it and get out before sentiment stalls - for e.g. fertiliser and oil/gas companies after March 2022. For resource explorers and developers choosing quality projects and being patient is key to making gains - CTM, Filo, AFM and GGP fit this profile. All are still at good entry points in context of future growth potential, imo.
I opened a short-term trade in Adriatic Metals (https://www.adriaticmetals.com/downloads/corporate-presentations/2022/july-2022---roadshow-v4.pdf) @ £1.15 on recent weakness. Technically it was showing a divergence on the macd-h, had hit a significant fib retracement level, had dipped below a long-term support/resistance level (@ 1.20) and was showing oversold on the rsi. With those signals and knowing the company fundamentals well I can be fairly confident that it's probably bottomed barring any catastrophic event. I originally invested in Adriatic in early 2020 and planned to keep hold until they completed their Bosnian silver/zinc/lead mine and production in 2023. But sentiment ended up tanking in late 2021 on political instability (Bosnian Serbs threatening to break-away, with Russian backing) so I sold in late 2021 for a decent profit. It was a shame as it's a genuinely world-class project and one of the best silver/zinc projects currently on the market. Fully funded to production and with good levels of management and institutional ownership (European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, among others). There's a bit of a sentimental attachment for me - during the war in 1995 I was a fresh-faced 20-year old based not far from where their new mine's located. It's good to see a project that helps the region progress and this mine will be Bosnia's largest exporter, contributing 1.5% of the country's GDP. The ceo Paul Cronin seems to be one of the industry's good eggs and doing things the right way in terms of community engagement and environment. Overview of the project from their corporate relations guy: https://youtu.be/1o54G7-_Ero?t=9
Free cash flow starts next year, quickly ramping up to £200m+ per year, on a current market cap of £315m. So Adriatic's at a very decent entry price here. They're in the dip on the Lassonde Curve (https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-life-cycle-of-a-mineral-discovery/) with less than 12 months to production so price 'should' do well from here starting pretty much from now (there are no guarantees ofc). I have other needs for my invested money so my plan is to sell for a short-term 10% profit which, if the rebound momentum continues in silver's spot price (movement in silver tends to move Adriatic) then I expect to hit my target in the next 2 weeks. If silver goes on a rip I'll hold a bit longer but doubt I'd hold beyond autumn.
Alphamin suffered a drop on the triple events of: 1. Announcing it had concluded its review and that it isn’t currently seeking a buyer - this led to those investors who piled in on the excitement of a potential buy-out piling out again. 2. Instability on the border between DRC and Uganda - nowhere near AFM’s mine or export route, but the average investor doesn’t know or care about that. 3. Tin spot price dropping from $45k to $25k per ton. They’re still printing large quarterly profits at $25k as their cost of production is $15k per ton.
Quarterly earnings were announced last week, valuation is cheap at current price on EBITDA/EV or cash-flow multiple basis. And the second of the twice-yearly dividends was announced which, added to the dividend earlier in the year, gives a 10% return-to-date on my original investment (@ .55c) in addition to the ~40% capital growth at current share price. With zero debt there’s nothing to worry about here and Alphamin remains a no-brainer long term investment as far as any company operating in DRC can ever be. A cash cow value share at this valuation, and an exciting growth share within the next 1-2 years - according to the feasibility study Mpana South will be built and operating by late 2023/early 2024 nearly doubling production and free cash flow. Price of tin would have to drop and hold below $20k/t for me to alter my view on AFM, and if it did then global tin supply would soon tighten as that price doesn't incentivise any new supply to come on line and supply is already tight.
Filo dropped along with the rest of the copper sector with the drop in copper spot price - a reflection of expectations of reduced global economic growth ahead. The next round of drill results are due for release imminently, they're hoping to prove up further large extensions to the project - as was suggested by the last set of results. Any weakness in Filo’s price is a gold-plated opportunity to add shares imo. If you believe copper might be a bit in demand over the next 5-10 years and that there is supply tightness ahead then this is a very lucrative way to benefit from that dynamic. Filo is the best copper exploration/development project available on public markets by far, bar none. The only uncertainties are not if it rises higher than the current price but how quickly and by how much. Expect fireworks along the way and don’t get shaken out below mid $20s (unless Argentina decide to commit economic suicide by nationalising mining, in which case panic sell!). I sold a bunch in the high $20s during the last rise. It’s still my largest holding. At $18 I'm up over 300% but my expectation is $30+ in the next 1-2 years. It will have pullbacks along the way. My opinion on Filo is just hold it and forget about it. Don't panic on any pullbacks and don't sell any unless the alternative is a kidney, the patient will be well rewarded from this level. All of which is not advice, imo, do your own work, etc. etc.
Still holding Whitehaven Coal and looking forward to earnings in August which are forecast to be ridiculously good. I bought at $4, currently up 55%, in addition to a dividend to be announced next month anticipated to be between another 10-20% per-quarter (on purchase price). Further share buybacks starting in September. The price of Newcastle coal (the commodity Whitehaven produces) has rocketed on demand from Europe and SE Asia and the monthly profits (https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/whitehaven-flags-record-3-billion-profit-as-coal-prices-surge-20220718-p5b2cj.html) being made by WHC are rather large..! Coal futures prices also look to be strong through 2023 (https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQ*0/futures-prices). I hesitate to suggest buying WHC now, as the share price growth this year has been phenomenal for a boring old coal company (+125% year-to-date). But on future cash flows WHC is still vastly undervalued, a legacy of being completely buried by ESG mandates leading to divestment from coal, now temporarily revived from the grave for one last commodity cycle. $8-9 would be fair value, so another 50% gain from here plus a 10-20% dividend. If anyone is considering buying then be careful holding for too long once the cycle starts to turn, probably in 2023. I won't be surprised to see further buying ahead of earnings with the company going ex-dividend in late August. Also wouldn't be surprised by end-of-month dumping in late August, as naughty institutional investors cleanse their books of any dirty non ESG-compliant coal deviancy that they don't want clients to see...
Bought and sold Peabody Energy for a quick 10% gain ahead of last week's earnings. While it sells a similar commodity to Whitehaven this US producer is hamstrung by various balance sheet technicalities too lengthy to go into here, which I hadn't realised until after I bought (not permitted to pay a dividend being one).
Still holding Diana Shipping. Earnings were announced this week (https://www.dianashippinginc.com/financial-results-for-the-second-quarter-and-six-months-ended-june-30-2022-declares-cash-dividend-of-0-275-per-share-for-the-second-quarter-2022/?catslug=press-releases) - they beat estimates and price is rising back toward my purchase price of $6. They announced a quarterly dividend of 4.8% per-quarter return on my investment, price is currently around 8% down but with strength in the US dollar and dividend I’m around breakeven. On TA it’s looking like the price may again challenge the long-term break-out line (in the low $6s), after failing to sustain a rise last time it broke that level in early June. For anyone interested there's time to invest before it goes ex-dividend on Aug 5th.
ZACA showing some life from the dead this week. This high-risk explorer will be sold if/when it ever gets back to a +5% gain at around C$0.40.
As for everything else, my plan is to hold mid to long term (another 1 - 5 years). These long-term investments are mostly resource developers/producers/royalty companies set to benefit from the energy transition and tightness in the supply of copper, nickel, tin and cobalt; plus new battery tech (GMG); some gold (GGP/AEM/OR), and one oil/gas developer-producer (TXP). Polx is the odd one out, a biomed company with new lung-imaging tech awaiting FDA approval decision in October.
(CTM, MLX, AEM, OR, GGP, GMG, POLX, OMI, ALS, APF, GLEN, TXP, ZACA).
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Interested in Whitehaven Coal but not seeing the stock on HL - where are you guys buying it?
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Interested in Whitehaven Coal but not seeing the stock on HL - where are you guys buying it?
interactive investors for me
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Yep interactive investor for me. It's possible to trade all major global markets with II either inside or outside an ISA.
However note II charge a flat-rate of £10 per month. You get one free trade per month. This system works out as economic for regular investors and/or for large trading amounts. It doesn't work so well for small trading amounts or irregular traders. Worth examining how much you're investing before opening an account.
WHC earnings for full year 2022 were announced last week, excellent as forecasted. In fact they reported their highest ever profit in over 22 years of producing coal, which is astonishing and a reflection of how few major coal producing companies there are remaining. The pivot over the last 12 months has made WHC the ASX 200's 3rd best-performing share this year to date (another coal producer the 4th). I'll copy/paste the figures below from the earnings announcement (https://whitehavencoal.com.au/full-year-results-fy22/) and you can see the turnaround from 2021 to 2022. Note the points I've highlighted:
Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) has reported a record net profit after tax (NPAT) of $2.0 billion for the year
ended 30 June 2022, and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of
$3.1 billion, which is a significant increase on the $204.5 million of EBITDA in the prior year.
Whitehaven’s FY22 results highlights also include:
• Record revenue of $4.9 billion underpinned by an achieved average coal price of A$325/t (compared
with $1.56 billion revenue and A$95/t average price in the prior year)
• Cash generated from operations of $2.6 billion compared with $169.5 million in the prior year.
• During FY22, all senior bank debt was repaid and $1.0 billion of net cash was held on the balance sheet at
30 June 2022, versus $808.5 million of net debt at 30 June 2021.
• A fully franked final dividend of 40 cents per share will be paid on 16 September, taking the full year
dividend to 48 cents per share.
• After announcing a 10% on-market share buy-back in February 2022, 76.37 million shares (or ~7% of
issued share capital) were bought back in H2 FY22 for an average price of $4.75 and a total investment of
$362.6 million.
• In H1 FY23, Whitehaven aims to complete the 10% buy-back within the previously announced cap of $550 million.
• The Board will seek shareholder approval to increase its share buy-back programme at the Company’s Annual General Meeting in October.
I'm up 100% on WHC, this month's dividend payment will equate to a further 10% on my investment. Solar panels and battery storage here I come. I'll say to anyone considering buying - be careful here, as price is pushing all time highs daily. Hard to predict how it will perform from now as global markets are on edge, many investors will be taking profits from big gainers like WHC to cover losses elsewhere, and after a share goes ex-dividend (on Sept 1st for WHC) price often drops a bit to reflect the reduction in cash following payout.
However.. the bigger picture is this. As noted above the 2022 share buy-back programme will continue to completion between now and October, helping to support share price. Then, the next price catalyst will be the announcement at the October AGM of the next share buy-back programme, which will start shortly after. This buy-back is announced to be larger than the current A$550m allocated to buy-backs.
The potential effect on share price of share buy-backs at different amounts can be seen in the spreadsheet below, which uses realistic assumptions when compared to the figures reported in 2022 earnings (not my work, I found it through reading up).
Key:
SOI = shares on issue.
NEWC = price of newcastle coal (currently $427/t for Sept 2022, out to $334 for Sept 2023...)source (https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQ*0/futures-prices). Note the average price achieved in above 2022 earnings..
SP = share price @ 4 x price/earnings
(http://i.imgur.com/8TLuUTr.jpg) (https://imgur.com/8TLuUTr)
When reading the above spreadsheet consider the following:
Shares on issue currently are 911m.
They've bought back A$362m worth of shares @ average of $4.75 to date. They will continue buying back, up to the 2022 cap of A$550m.
Then, in October the 2023 buy-back will start - this is expected to be larger than A$550m.
If we say buy-backs are achieved @ an average share price of, say, A$10 (but pick a price between 6 and 11) and a buy-back fund is announced of, say, A$650, then that's another 650 million shares removed from shares on issue...
Do the maths using the spreadsheet above and the fundamentals support a share price of somewhere between $10 - $16 per share.
Plus the next dividends, as there will be another year's-worth of them, minimum. Coal isn't disappearing overnight, but its price will drop off at some point. The futures price of Newcastle coal is currently forecast (https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQ*0/futures-prices) to remain high (above $300/t) for the remainder of 2022 into 2023. Guidance for 2023 from WHC:
Commenting on FY23 market outlook and guidance, Mr Flynn added:
“Demand for high-quality seaborne thermal coal is expected to remain strong throughout FY23 and high-CV
coal prices should continue to be well supported.
“We expect to deliver higher ROM production and coal sales in FY23 compared with FY22, and we are focused
on maximising margins including managing inflationary cost pressures.
In short - fundamentals support the current share price and suggest further growth, but the largest gains have possibly been made and any significant change of sanctions conditions for energy from Russia could hit coal futures quite quickly. To estimate the risks you need to ask how likely that is. Longer-term, with commodities there's a timescale involved with valuation and having a view on the commodity cycle is essential to having an informed view on when something is becoming overvalued.
I'll finish on WHC with a point aimed at Simon about value shares, as he appears to believe this thread doesn't concern itself with value shares ::). WHC (along with Alphamin - as noted by other value investors (https://valuesits.substack.com/p/model-portfolio-update)) is the epitome of a 'value share'. A formerly indebted company in an overlooked industry, selling a product that was unloved, undervalued and ignored at the end of last year but which has been completely transformed through profits from sales into the 3rd best-performing company year to date on the ASX 200 (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx200). Returning capital to investors via dividends, buy-backs and price growth. It's one of the best current examples of a value share you could come up with and this was apparent to many value investors even before reliable sources of energy became weaponised.
I opened a short-term trade in Adriatic Metals @ £1.15 on recent weakness. Technically it was showing a divergence on the macd-h, had hit a significant fib retracement level, had dipped below a long-term support/resistance level (@ 1.20) and was showing oversold on the rsi. With those signals and knowing the company fundamentals well I can be fairly confident that it's probably bottomed barring any catastrophic event.
...
I have other needs for my invested money so my plan is to sell for a short-term 10% profit which, if the rebound momentum continues in silver's spot price (movement in silver tends to move Adriatic) then I expect to hit my target in the next 2 weeks. If silver goes on a rip I'll hold a bit longer but doubt I'd hold beyond autumn.
Sold Adriatic this week for 10% profit, 1 week later than suggested. Adriatic are going places and are a top quality company which I'd normally be very happy holding. There will be an updated resource estimate will be released to market this autumn for the Bosnian mine, and their Serbian asset is also awaiting an updated MRE this year. Both will likely be catalysts for price. Production in Bosnia starts early next year and this event should re-rate share price higher. But I made the trade with the aim of a quick profit to pay for my house move conveyancing.
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If we say buy-backs are achieved @ an average share price of, say, A$10 (but pick a price between 6 and 11) and a buy-back fund is announced of, say, A$650, then that's another 650 million shares removed from shares on issue
Apols should read 65m shares removed from issue @ $10 per share. (In addition to the approx 27m shares to be removed from issue between now and Oct to complete the current 10% buyback). When you look at current and projected price/t for coal, the fundamentals are pretty clear.
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Nice roundup on WHC Pete.
Not sure I'd be buying now, I'd perhaps hope for a dip after the divi but it has just been grinding upwards relentlessly. A keeper for me as it pays for my heating on the boat.
I have had a major rethink too, I took advantage of the good highs in the market last week to go to 70% cash and chill my way through to the new year.
I'm 30% up YTD, even allowing for being roughly half in cash for over two months now and when I set out I just wanted to beat the interest a bank gave. It's been a huge learning curve and my brain could do with a rest. There have been some huge and daft losses but Filo amongst others, mostly energy have saved the day.
I sold UAN at a 19% profit plus a huge divided even after tax.
I also sold both Alphamin and MLX. I took profits on AFM back when it was well over CAD1.10, so up on tin despite the recent drop, it's still a great thesis and I'll look to buy back in eventually.
I recently bought back into Vertex, the refiners. This stock has been kind to me, initially buying in at @ $9, selling at over $14. Then buying back in at $12 and selling at $14 the day before earnings. They turned out to be a shock. Horrendous management caused far worse than expected results and the share price plummeted to under $7 for a short while. I eventually bought back in at $7.60 a week ago. Currently up almost 15% but planning to hold if nothing much changes in the macro picture. If, big if, the management doesn't cock it all up again, I'll look to sell at $14.
Sold a lot of energy and bought others. Swapped Journey for MEG as an example.
One recent buy was KLX Energy Services for $7.29, they supply the onshore industry. Seems super cheap to me, as before covid they were over $50. If the macro picture for US energy security stays the same, then I'm optimistic about KLX.
Current PF is
Energy - Whitehaven, MEG, VTNR, KLXE and Whitecap. Also Yello Cake for a uranium interest.
Gold - Franco Nevada and Sandstorm royalty companies.
Metals - Filo, Vizla Copper, Sable Resources, Anglo Pacific and PMET.
PMET, Patriot Battery Metals is a lithium play in North America. I put 5% of my PF in for one day and then took back my investment, leaving the profits to hopefully grow. Slight mistake there, as I'm now up 43%... should have left the lot on it. Currently 1% of my PF.
My partner's ISA, I've left in Whitehaven and Filo, plus she has a nice amount of Premium Nickel Resources after they took over NAN recently. Very optimistic that PNRL will help to regain some of the tech losses she had suffered from at the end of last year. They're definitely worth a look at if the battery metals thesis appeals.
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Yes, the brain needs periods of rest from this! Especially during the steep learning curve part, and double-especially in the current market. There's much to be said for trackers and not being an active investor. You seem to have played it really well the last 12 months. I found it took me 2-3 years of solid intense learning around various different aspects of the sector I chose to invest in, and of understanding technicals and valuation (still my weakest part, but not bad at it) before I felt more secure and stable with the risks and volatility. Some days I still worry a little bit but that's natural. This was after being an occasional investor for a couple of decades then deciding to take it more seriously around 2014.
Fellow PMET and PNRL holder here, @ $5.05 for PMET and $2.07 for PNRL, with 1.5% and 1% of my pf respectively. Both appear legit and are in the exciting part of the journey but it's still too early to know how much is promotion and how much is solid fundamentals - you heard about PMET for a reason (the same reason that I heard about them..! he isn't an angel..). The signs are good however, very encouraging that Alphamin's COO Boris Kamastra - who oversaw development and production of the Biese mine - was hired by PNRL, gives them credibility.
PMET also encouraging that they hired the ex Pilbara Minerals CEO who took that company to billions in market cap on their lithium project. So they both have highly credible management on their boards. Could be one of those insane success stories like Filo, or it could be promotion (like ZACA, although awaiting further drills). My jury's currently out.
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PMET ending at +16% today, completely nuts this one finishing at $6.16.
Bought in at $3.73 on the 10th of this month and I certainly think it's a narrative stock at the moment. As I'm 'playing with house funds' after having my initial stake back, I'm feeling pretty relaxed with the volatility.
As regards the taking 2/3 years to get into gear with all the ins and outs of junior mining, I've nothing but respect for that Pete. So so much to learn. I really feel like I'm winging it most days, even on the basics of earnings reports but it is getting easier. Podcasts have helped hugely.
There's definitely an edge to be had in the sector by being a small investor, even if it's just liquidity.
Mind you, even at my level that can be a problem and when I invested in Vizla Copper, the share price rose significantly! I'd have a job liquidating that position at any sort of speed but hopefully, I won't have to.
Energy I'm following the crowd if I'm honest - plenty of 'experts' out there ready to point you in the wrong direction but apart from the recent lull, it's generally been okay. Met coal is one area were I didn't read the cycle right but thermal more than made up for it.
Ideally, I'd like to get a list of things to invest in when the bear market is over, preferably UK listed but timing that will be tough. There's a couple I'm looking at, Metal Tiger being one.
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This might come across as a slightly flippant comment (not intended to be) - but the 'things to invest in when the bear market is over' are things to invest in now while the bear market is here, as they'll probably be cheaper. You're highly unlikely to beat the average market performance when trying to time what the next sector or company to do well will be - I know you probably know this but there are very large institutions crammed with extremely intelligent people who think about this topic every day and invest billions accordingly. We're very unlikely to know better than them, but it is possible to spot the momentum changes and ride the same themes slightly earlier than others. Generally just holding long-term and buying into a falling market is a safe bet.
Outside of bear markets - i.e. the last 12 years - I think general index trackers are the best choice for large portfolios, with some smaller-scale active trading for those of us who love it and if we can justify it on results.
In bear markets however, good stock picking can do well and outperform the market while index trackers/ETFs/Pensions etc. track downwards. But it's mentally draining to be actively trading in a bear market as you note. Just staying out of a bear market completely can outperform an index tracker, depending on inflation..
Of course if you're trading rising momentum out of a bear market (or short term rallies such as we've just had the last 2 months) then it means identifying momentum stocks earlier than a certain proportion of other market participants - to make a profit you need to sell to other people who by definition will be getting in later than you and who also must believe* they're getting in at a good time...
Howard Marks talks about level 2 thinking, where someone is able to think through current events and themes by many steps into the future to try to identify market opportunities. Combined with probabilistic ways of thinking and updating probability as events unfold i.e. Bayes.
* not that all participants are that rational - see the meme craziness
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The Marks article is a good read and quite humbling, some really good points.
Flippant comments are often full of truth and required hearing Pete. It's definitely a case of buying what's good now when it's cheaper.
Just bought back into Alphamin again for 65c a share. I've managed to sell and buy in cheaper maybe three times now but I could certainly do with the Tin price rising for a while.
My first shares over a year ago were 87c. A hugely under appreciated company.
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A bit off topic but I can't find a better one to post in. As there are knowledgeable people in this thread, I'm seeking opinions on whether it would be crazy to stretch myself on a large extension to my house in these uncertain times.
I live in a 3 bed detached house in Leeds with my wife and 3 kids. Soon we will need more bedrooms. My salary is the only household income, I'm 33 and we owe about £110k on the mortgage. We have planning approval for a large extension that will cost around £150k. Advice from parents is always a long the lines of "we wish we stretched ourselves more when we were in your position", but these feel like different times.
This is very much a first world problem - I'm fortunate that the extension would be affordable, while still being able to make monthly investments and having disposable income, but I'm nervous at the prospect of 5%+ interest rates over the next few years as our extra borrowing (if we take it) is on a fixed rate for just 2 years. Would I be crazy to spend 150k right now when I already have a roof over my head? For a little more context, our house would likely be worth just over 500k once complete. Moving house isn't really an option as we like the area and it would cost an extra 100k to buy something equivalent to what we can build.
I hesitated to post this as I'm aware that people are struggling and I'm clearly not doing too bad, but I'm still nervous about this decision. Hopefully, anyone visiting the investing thread knows what they're in for!
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Advice from parents is always a long the lines of "we wish we stretched ourselves more when we were in your position", but these feel like different times.
I have no useful advice (sorry!) and no doubt the answer depends a lot on salary levels, ability to find another job if you lose your current one, life priorities etc, but I'm intrigued by this comment... why do they wish they'd stretched themselves?
I always take advice from older relatives with a pinch of salt unless you share quite similar views on priorities/world views/what makes you happy etc.
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Advice from parents is always a long the lines of "we wish we stretched ourselves more when we were in your position", but these feel like different times.
I have no useful advice (sorry!) and no doubt the answer depends a lot on salary levels, ability to find another job if you lose your current one, life priorities etc, but I'm intrigued by this comment... why do they wish they'd stretched themselves?
I always take advice from older relatives with a pinch of salt unless you share quite similar views on priorities/world views/what makes you happy etc.
Largely due to the boom in house prices that occurred during their time. With the massive interest rates and job insecurities of the 80's still fresh in their memories, I think they were afraid to spend up to their limit in the 90's. Those who did would have seen massive increases in house value. In contrast, my world view has been shaped by low interest rates and continued growth in house prices (mine is valued at 100k more than I bought it for just 5 years ago with minimal work done!). I'm aware that it's a not a given this will continue.
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Leaving individual values aside the sensible thing to do would be stress-test your potential future outgoings assuming a scenario in which you lost your job and had zero income for 6 months while the interest on your loan went up by 2%.
How does that look, and what are the likelihoods.
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How much is the house worth now? (or how much value will your £150k extension add to it?)
Have you already got planning / is it permitted development?
Have you already got your builder lined up and quoted?
How much contingency have you allowed for in the quote?
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How much is the house worth now? (or how much value will your £150k extension add to it?)
Have you already got planning / is it permitted development?
Have you already got your builder lined up and quoted?
How much contingency have you allowed for in the quote?
Was valued at 300k 6 months ago, and after the extension it should be 500-550k based on other houses on the street.
Yes we have planning.
This is one of the tricky parts. Builders are quoting absolutely ludicrous figures, so we're going to project manage it ourselves with help from the father in law, who is a builder himself but lives an hour and half away. He has costed it at around 100-110k to do it ourselves to a white wall finish (two builders quoted over 200k(!!!) to do the build and a third builder quoted 135k but we subsequently found lots of bad reviews and decided against). I understand the stress involved with project managing ourselves.
We have 150k to spend, which gives us around 40k for fitting out/contingency.
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Liam what is the interest rate of your 2yr deal and is switching to a 5 yr fix a possibility? If it is a stretch I'd be nervous about signing up to something that meant a remortgage in 2 years time. I suspect it's a bit of a race against time to get a decent mortgage deal at the moment - my current fix runs out in Dec and trying to get a 5yr fix sorted asap!
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Affordability aside, it sounds like a reasonable investment case.
I'm in a similar situation and we're about 5 weeks into the build. So far, I wouldn't underestimate how much you'll also enjoy being in the future home / the value you attribute to that. If you're confident in your estimates / valuations, then I think you'd be hard pressed to find an investment that will return 33-66% in the time period of the build, so purely from that perspective it'd be worth it. Better than the 5% interest rate you'd pay to fund it. Theoretically you could sell and have made a gain (though I imagine the thought of a house move with 3 kids is not fun).
That's if you can afford it without putting yourself under undue stress (financially and personally).
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Really appreciating the views presented, in particular, not sleeping on the quality of life gain from the house itself! It's easy to forget about that when crunching numbers.
Kac - I've gone round in circles on this and it's tricky because my current mortgage has 2 years left at 1.1% and to fund the extension we have an extra borrowing offer of £140k at 3% for 2 years. At that point we could combine them if wanted. We only really had one offer to borrow as much as we need, so it was take it or leave it.
In terms of financial stress from rising interest rates, again this is very much a problem I hesitate to share right now, but I think it would mostly impact our disposable income and not our ability to pay the bills, unless things really start to look bad in the economy (say 10%+ interest rates but then I'd imagine most of us are fucked anyway).
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Really appreciating the views presented, in particular, not sleeping on the quality of life gain from the house itself! It's easy to forget about that when crunching numbers.
Kac - I've gone round in circles on this and it's tricky because my current mortgage has 2 years left at 1.1% and to fund the extension we have an extra borrowing offer of £140k at 3% for 2 years. At that point we could combine them if wanted. We only really had one offer to borrow as much as we need, so it was take it or leave it.
In terms of financial stress from rising interest rates, again this is very much a problem I hesitate to share right now, but I think it would mostly impact our disposable income and not our ability to pay the bills, unless things really start to look bad in the economy (say 10%+ interest rates but then I'd imagine most of us are fucked anyway).
To my amateur reading, 2 years at 1.1% is not to be sniffed at, even if the extra 140k is at 3%. A lot can happen in 2 years!
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If you're confident in your estimates / valuations, then I think you'd be hard pressed to find an investment that will return 33-66% in the time period of the build, so purely from that perspective it'd be worth it. Better than the 5% interest rate you'd pay to fund it. Theoretically you could sell and have made a gain (though I imagine the thought of a house move with 3 kids is not fun).
Worth bearing in mind that this relies on the housing market staying pretty strong. If house prices take a dive then the return could be substantially less. Less of an issue if you're planning on staying in the property for a substantial period of time though as you can wait out dips in the market.
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That sounds like a pretty good finance deal to me and basically you are saying you need the space and saying you can afford it even if there is a really big increase in rates. I assume that at the total debt level you are still within a reasonable income to mortgage multiplier and so won't have trouble getting remortgaged at whatever the best deals are in 2 years time. If so doesn't sound like a bad decision in principle.
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I'm probably slightly catious in nature (well only in a financial sense). I'd say it might not be the best time to make a big financial commitment with the current turmoil in government and the markets. Many economists are predicting 6% interest rates by next Summer. Currently the rate of fixed mortgages coming to an end is 300,000 per quarter. This will be 375,000 by Q2 next year. Interest rates at 6% will mean a doubling of mortgage costs for people coming off a fixed. Combined with energy and cost of living crisis it's hard to see this not resulting in a housing market crash.
Unless you were in a situation with an opportunity that might not arise again I'd be inclined to wait six months and see if the financial clouds have cleared. We're in a particularly unstable period caused by a mix of factors but massively exacerbated by the selection of a PM with a completely different set of policies to the ones that the government were actually elected on. Not only that but they're radical and extreme to the extent that they won't even allow the independent fiscal watchdog to give its view. No wonder the financial markets are spooked. It's hard to know where we'll be next week yet alone next year. Uncertain times.
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I was busy typing up a reply, and making a spreadsheet to work some things out, but I wanted to reply to Nails to ask something (anyone can chip in however, and this REALLY is getting o/t but...)
What impact (other than the things already mentioned - being able to afford rate rises up to 10%) will the turmoil really have on the decision?
This needs more time than I have right now to reply - but I think (and I urge others to as much as possible) to pretty much forget about "house price value" it really doesn't affect you much. It's a more simple equation in my miund, and pete spelled it out.
1. Can you afford the loan repayments on the £150k if there is a protracted period of high (6%) and the less likely but still possible "very high" rate of 10% plus?
2. Is that good value for money for the benefit you'll get?
3. Do you *need* to do it now?
4. Will there actually be any benefit in delaying (rates not likely to go down etc.)
5. Is there an alternative / cheaper way to get more space.
Other than the useful info that doing the works should bring your house "in line" with the average street rate, it doesn't really make any difference to you if the market goes up 10%, down 10% or even more either way as you're not trying to "make money" out of doing this, you're trying to "spend borrowed money to improve your standard of living".
I'll do some more work on the numbers and back this up later....
And by the way Liam....what is you do that you can afford a big hoose, 3 kids AND get loads of time (and energy) to climb pretty well while already having paid off so much mortgage? Good effort!
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I pretty much agree with all of that. The nominal value of your home (or anything for that matter) has no real importance if you're not intending to sell it. So the biggest single factor in the decision is how secure your work/income is. If you feel super-secure, need it now and see no advantage in delaying then the answer's easy. The main advantage I would see in delaying is that I see the whole Trussonomics experiment playing out quite quickly (and not in a good way for Truss). I may well be wrong but I feel that 6 months down the line the economic policy of the Conservatives will have been forced into a more conventional form (ie. focus on keeping inflation down, interest rates likely to be heading for a more manageable 3-5% band, an acceptance of relatively low economic growth and no Brexit dividend). The danger is the potential turmoil that we have to go through to get there. My caution is shaped by memories of the late 80s / early 90s and seeing people I knew have their houses repossessed who were convinced they were financially secure. It was only brief but interest rates reached 15%. How many people with a substantial mortgage these days could take that? And I suppose the other thought going through my head is that the government back then was pretty shit, but it was no where near as bonkers as this one.
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If you're confident in your estimates / valuations, then I think you'd be hard pressed to find an investment that will return 33-66% in the time period of the build, so purely from that perspective it'd be worth it. Better than the 5% interest rate you'd pay to fund it. Theoretically you could sell and have made a gain (though I imagine the thought of a house move with 3 kids is not fun).
Worth bearing in mind that this relies on the housing market staying pretty strong. If house prices take a dive then the return could be substantially less. Less of an issue if you're planning on staying in the property for a substantial period of time though as you can wait out dips in the market.
Totally.
Though in this hypothetical scenario, assuming a 10% drop in the market, it'd end up at break-even. More than 10% drop in the market and the chaos that'll be wrought given the numbers who might be on 90/95% LTV mortgages is not a pleasant thought. Though this might be rose-tinted optimism.
In addition to all the other ways people have suggested to frame it:
How much would you be willing to pay to rent somewhere that was as nice as your extended home vs how much would you pay for your current place? How does that delta compare to the interest you'd be paying on the increased borrowing?
Slight disagreement to the nominal value of your home not having any importance if you're not intending on selling - if you were to take a long enough view, you might want to consider it in the context of inheritance to kids.
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The value of your home is also relevant to the LTV percentage and getting the best deals. I'm guessing that you have an agreement in principle on the 3%. I doubt you would get that deal if you applied today. I can't see waiting six months changing much apart from losing your 3% deal and rates going up. Good luck with it.
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Right, Might have more time to explain my thinking and then let people pick holes...
Putting aside the inheritance thing (who knows, maybe some mad lefty government gets voted in and makes a 100% inheritance tax :blink: ), my thought experiment on this precise situation are as follows, with some worked examples.
Basic premise is that you have decided you need the additional space for the kids, you don't want to move anywhere soon and you're not trying to build a multi-property empire to live off/sell off in later life (we're not all Shark).
Option 1 - You decide to extend your current place and stay there forever...
Option 2 - You buy something similar in the street that's already the right size
Option 3 - You extend, then find you have to move in future.
I'm going to work this through with 2 scenarios. 10% house price inflation over a "nominal period" a whopping -25%. I'm going to ignore interest rates for now, as they'll mainly affect monthly repayments, not the differences in the scenarios (too much) .
Option 1:
Current mortgage: £110k
Current Value: £300k
Equity: £190k
Carry out works. £150k, added to mortgage.
New mortgage £260k, new value £500k* LTV: 52% [my opinion, so long as you can afford the monthly repayments @10% interest, then crack on - I don't see any chance of building matrials or builders day rates dropping in the near, medium or long term...]**
Option 2: Sell current place and move to bigger place.
Current mortgage: £110k
Current Value: £300k
Equity: £190k
Buy new place at £550k
New mortgage: £360k, LTV: 65%
Option 3:
You carry out option 1, then for "reasons" you have to move, and the market shifts....
Lets start at the extreme end. All houses drop by 25%.
Existing house value(after works): £375k, LTV: 69%, Equity £115k (pretty healthy for such a house price drop, long way to -ve equity)
You want to move to the "£550k" house in an identical street in a new city somewhere...
£550k house is now also worth only £413k, meaning you only need a £298k mortgage to move, £38k more than your existing mortgage. LTV: 72%.
Contrast this with a house price gain of 10% across the market:
For scenario 3, you'd then need a £365k mortgage to move house. LTV would be 60%.
Point being, in a rising market, moving to a bigger house ALWAYS costs more. It might "feel" nice to feel like you have £50k, £100k etc. of "value" in your house added on when the market shifts, but it doesn't really ever benefit you, the carrot gets bigger but the stick also grows longer.... I just never quite understand the UKs national obsession with thinking house price inflation is a "good thing". Most of us would be much "better off" in a flat or dropping market.
Slight disagreement to the nominal value of your home not having any importance if you're not intending on selling - if you were to take a long enough view, you might want to consider it in the context of inheritance to kids.
I'd argue that whatever way it goes, general house price inflation is still not a benefit to future inheritors, as the market just keeps on getting less affordable. Of course, in that market you want to make sure you're improving your house etc., but that doesn't mean that increasing house prices across the board actually benefits the one-house owning populace in any measurable way.
I'm open to be shown the errors of my logic, but I just don't see it.
*just picked the lower valuation, and the higher one for the existing house as a conservative case.
**Do everything you can to make it as energy efficient a build you can, see if you can get any interest free loans for insulation upgrades etc.
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Good numbers there!
Point being, in a rising market, moving to a bigger house ALWAYS costs more. It might "feel" nice to feel like you have £50k, £100k etc. of "value" in your house added on when the market shifts, but it doesn't really ever benefit you, the carrot gets bigger but the stick also grows longer.... I just never quite understand the UKs national obsession with thinking house price inflation is a "good thing". Most of us would be much "better off" in a flat or dropping market.
If house prices are rising faster than inflation and your end game is "sell this massive house in london I bought 30 years, move anywhere else in the country, retire" then inflated house prices are a good thing because you end up with a big wedge of cash. Agree that if you want to stay in the same area or, god forbid, move up the property ladder then it doesn't help at all.
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Martin Lewis has been pointing out for years how stupid it is that we celebrate house prices going up. However, there is a difference between general house price inflation and the value of your house going up due to you improving it.
Anyway I suspect Pete will ask for his thread back soon so probably best discussed elsewhere!
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Good numbers there!
Point being, in a rising market, moving to a bigger house ALWAYS costs more. It might "feel" nice to feel like you have £50k, £100k etc. of "value" in your house added on when the market shifts, but it doesn't really ever benefit you, the carrot gets bigger but the stick also grows longer.... I just never quite understand the UKs national obsession with thinking house price inflation is a "good thing". Most of us would be much "better off" in a flat or dropping market.
If house prices are rising faster than inflation and your end game is "sell this massive house in london I bought 30 years, move anywhere else in the country, retire" then inflated house prices are a good thing because you end up with a big wedge of cash. Agree that if you want to stay in the same area or, god forbid, move up the property ladder then it doesn't help at all.
Aye, good for them, shite for everyone who lives there :lol: Ask anyone on Skye if they like house prices going up because well-off Londoners can buy a second house and pump the local prices...
Maybe this could all get moved to the mortgage thread that's just popped up?
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Back on topic. It seems to have occurred with little fanfare, but Ethereum has fully moved over to Proof of Stake cutting its energy consumption by 99.95%. Seems pretty major! It was using more than 5GW - or about 3 times one of the two new Nuclear reactors at Hinkley, or about 2-3 big offshore wind farms. I really wish someone would tax bitcoin for its energy usage.
https://blog.ethereum.org/2021/05/18/country-power-no-more
Still on a very long HODL and hoping for some slow and steady gains now.
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Everything has gone quiet on the crypto front since they lost half their value! Be interesting to see what happens in the future.
I guess at least all the NFT owners out there can feel better that their blockchain for their worthless virtual items isn’t using too much energy.
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I worked for a crypto development er, company (though they preferred to describe themselves as a "public goods lab") for a few months earlier this year. I have no idea what the future of crypto will be like, but whilst there continues to be vast amounts of investment into those sorts of places, I'm quite sure that in the short to medium term things will start moving again.
The whole thing was completely ridiculous, which is party why I'm trying to write a sitcom about it. The whole experience was completely ridiculous. An amazing bunch of insanely clever (on paper) people (virtually everyone had PhDs in computer science / cryptography / maths) led by some very impressive (on paper) founders. Yet the main project white paper was the most unintelligible, verbose and pie in the sky thing I'd ever read. It looks like a document written by aliens who'd learned to write English using a dictionary of words over 8 letters long. I've got no doubt that they believed what they were writing / planning, but that was based on the self-belief and belief in the project that you only get when you're young, when the only people you ever meet or talk to are also totally immersed in crypto, and when you've been given more than $25 million to make your project happen. (I doubt the investors shared any of the cod-utopian possibilities of it either - I think it was much more a case of earmarking a massive chunk of the tokens in advance of the thing launching with a fanfare and watching them (probably fairly briefly) explode in value.)
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Thanks again everyone, posting here has helped settle my nerves. It does make sense to go ahead with the build, despite the chaos in the world!
And by the way Liam....what is you do that you can afford a big hoose, 3 kids AND get loads of time (and energy) to climb pretty well while already having paid off so much mortgage? Good effort!
I got a big leg up with my house deposit, receiving a £30k inheritance in my teens, that I somehow managed to keep safe until my mid 20's and not piss it all up the wall.
For work, I'm an engineer specialising in fire safety. My niche is providing advice in legal disputes, mostly in relation to the design and construction external wall systems and their impact on safety. Since the Grenfell disaster, there's been huge demand and not enough fire engineers, so salaries and bonuses have been on a steep incline for years, which has allowed me to pay off big chunks of the mortgage. 95% of the time I'm working from home, so I can get on the board pretty much any day I want after the kids have gone to bed. Getting out on rock is a bit more difficult.
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Update on Whitehaven Coal in case anyone's holding.
The share buyback scheme for FY 2022 ended last Friday (it actually has 1 more day to go, which will be October 27th). The share now goes into a 'blackout period' leading up to the AGM on Oct 26th, where no buybacks may take place. The black out period ends Oct 27th following AGM.
The total number of shares bought back and removed from the register was 101 million. Total shares on issue now approx. 930 million, down 10% from 1.03 billion at the start of 2022.
On Sept 21st they announced significant news with a resolution to buy back a further 25% of shares during FY 2023. This buyback starts Oct 27th following the AGM, pending voter approval (no brainer). This means shares on issue will reduce to 700 million by this time next year. Both on-market and off-market buybacks will take place. Off-market tender means some v.large buybacks can come at short notice.
(https://i.imgur.com/4bmIxWa.png)
Effect on SP for different total of shares on issue at different Newcastle coal prices can be seen in table below (not my work). Current price of Newc coal is $400/ton.
(https://i.imgur.com/fG4EQeZ.jpg)
The assumptions used above are realistic and conservative. The below is from latest earnings report.
(https://i.imgur.com/uDbg0p0.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/oPEl1d4.png)
Meaning, this has now turned from the growth share of the year (+230% ytd) into a high yield play, with decent odds of some further growth (but the big growth gains have been made). One dividend payment last month returned 10% on original investment, plus growth. But that reflects a low buy-in price. The next 12 months of dividends should compare very well though.
The value proposition here is:
1. 25% of shares to be removed from issue over course of the next year, while profits for Q1 FY 2023 (i.e. now) and likely the whole of FY 2023 will be higher than the already record last quarter and FY 2022. The average sale price achieved for Newcastle coal in Q1 2023 was >$400/t, versus ~$200 for FY 2022.
2. The high average coal price looks to continue, although softening. With forward contracts out to end of 2022 currently $400 per/t.
3. Coal price estimates for next year currently remain above $300.
4. Long term coal price estimates recently have been revised up by Wood Mac and other analysts to a higher base of around $180 - $200 toward mid 2020s.
(https://i.imgur.com/gCN3Se8.png)
Don't know what to expect between now and Oct 26th. Short term I won't be surprised to see some selling and price hovering in the 8s again. But there's to be a 'September Sales/Revenue & Production Report' released on Oct 19th which should provide some very supportive numbers. This is hardly a stable time and anything could happen. People are taking profits where they get them. A large insto could get interested in the value story and start buying sending price upward. Or global markets could blow up big time taking everything good/bad along for the ride until the good floats back to the top.
Fundamentally nothing much looks like it will change this winter regards energy supply. The world needs coal to produce electricity in the short to medium term (and for steel-making in the medium term), and is paying high prices because until there's a change to the sanctions with Russia and/or more alternatives come on line, coal is cheaper than gas. Any weakness in price here looks in my opinion like a good opportunity to return a very high yield over the next 12 months (£2,000 is tax-free allowance for dividends outside ISA).
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And just like that, Whitehaven jumped another 6.57% after you posted. It seems relentless.
I took some profits around mid Sep and put them into BTU/Peabody, the first tranche at $22.66, then three further lots down as low as $19.56.
My Whitehaven position had grown bigger than I'm currently comfortable with and whilst I'd avoided BTU in the past, it does look like it's about to be swamped with FCF. Available cash on hand should be over 2 billion in less than three months, so big decisions to be made about buybacks or capital returns. Currently up over 27% in 19 days and my position is larger than Whitehaven, at about 8% of my portfolio.
I need to learn patience tho. I was having a rejig of the PF 'again' and sold KLXE for a 23% loss, I wasn't fully sold on the sector, and the next day it rose 30% and has rose ever since.
Did manage to sell VTNR for a profit before it dropped and to be honest, I might stay away now. Insider selling and just poor management decisions need to be taken seriously.
Elsewhere, bought some more Filo for CAD14.62, re-entered Serica (similar to the coal companies, their FCF is set to rocket) and also bought Copper Mountain on opening 28th Sept, before the wind got behind their sails after announcing a 57% increase in their resources. Up 25% on that one already.
Put a bit more money into Sandstorm Gold too.
Pete - wondering what your thoughts are on Greatland currently at 7.5p?
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Ah Greatland… what can I say.
Well they were a bargain at 1.5p which was my average price. I held 3.5m shares and sold 2/3rds in the 30s and high 20s and banked that profit. Kept hold of the last 1.2m shares and traded a bit between 18 selling back up to 22. Currently still holding 1.2m shares.
They were clearly overvalued in the 30s and I look at people on those chat forums who claim they held since 2018 and haven’t sold a share and think they’re absolutely insane. Basically they gave up a huge profit at a price the share will likely never see again.
Current price is perhaps a little low but not unfair given the dilution they had to take on to get the final financing over the line. Also the phase of development they’re currently at - pre DFS.
DFS comes out anytime between tomorrow and Dec 31st. Talk is November. Once that’s out it moves them along a notch on the ‘derisk’ pathway. More institutional buyers can get involved post DFS, should they wish.
They’re currently sitting around 0.65 x NPV based on Sprott’s fully funded/fully diluted estimated NPV of 13p. That multiple should be a little higher imo, around 0.8 x NPV based on the low risk nature of Havieron.
Once the DFS is out that multiple should rise.
Time value of future cash flow is important for valuing GGP (hence NPV). I’ve compiled a discounted cash flow model for Havieron and it came out around 22p but I used less dilution than they ended up taking. As they move ever closer to the date of first production (end 2013/early 2014) their valuation should rise.
That said there often seems to be a lull and then a jump with these miners as they approach first production. Also keep an eye on Adriatic for comparison - tier one proj approaching production next year, amazing prospect for a re-rate but the price currently languishing (sliver price rocket incoming though…). They suffered from political issues in Bosnia though to complicate things.
So many moving parts in the GGP story to consider. There’s the mad sentimental private investor base. Any sniff of momentum and all these lemming pile in sending it higher - see 2020. That could happen again in current climate as gold is looking for an excuse to boom. Any more sniffs of QE in the western economy (already a few whiffs) would set it running.
Another part is the much talked-about ‘short manipulation’. The crazy pi’s like to imagine an enemy out to get them and steal their ‘winning ticket’. In reality it’s around 5% of shares on issue. If it closes it’ll be a small boost. But they’re obviously short for a reason and have a theory.
Another is the recent buy-in from Wylfa. Imo this is the most significant part of the jigsaw. Wyloo are massively serious players on the mining industry, Western Aus is their back yard, and they have form for taking on majors (like Newcrest) in negotiations and winning - see BHP and Noront. As far as I can tell they don’t get involved with shitcos and don’t spend their money lightly.
So for an outfit like Wyloo to not just get involved with GGP but to be putting big money and essentially 3 board members in place suggests to me they see significant a value creation opportunity ahead. How that plays out I’m unsure - Wyloo’s stated strategy is to invest in battery metals and copper. Perhaps Havieron has more cobalt or nickel then we currently know about (only trace mentioned in historic drills). Perhaps they just see significant upside in the mix of copper and gold in Havieron. Perhaps their intent is to insert themselves into the dynamic between GGP and Newcrest in the event of a takeover attempt by NCM.
Impossible to know. But Wyloo’s involvement to me signals a big positive.
Decent price at 8p (as per today). My long term target for selling the remainder of my shares was always 22p which I expected them to arrive at sometime following start of production in 2024. However I hadn’t factored for as much dilution as they did, so now I align with Sprott’s estimate mid teens on production.
Th wildcards are if they hit anything decent on any of the licenses surrounding Havieron. And if NCM make a bid.
So there’s optionality for a boost, and the current value of Havieron I believe provides a floor for price.
Another positive for me is the upcoming ASX listing. This will open up pathways for more insto capital and more pi interest as GGP is under the radar still among the Aussie and Canadian resource pi’s.
Funny one for me to give an opinion on because I’ve held it so long and I also crystallised such a massive gain on it. That it’s almost part of my history now. But I’m no daft enough to be Arya he’d to these things and I’d be very happy offloading the remainder in the mid teens and putting it in long term bonds or Glencore or something else paying a nice steady return.
TLDR: very good management, amazing asset, very strong backers, intriguing dynamic with JV partner, good prospects. There are more exciting explorers, and safer producers. 7/10.
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Much appreciated Pete - and thanks for the honest appraisal when you have so much skin in the game.
I opened a small.position, just 1% of my PF, late yesterday and obviously before I saw this. The SP seems to be IMO about the bottom barring major macro events but your views carry a great deal more weight than my thoughts.
It's interesting you say about Adriatic, as I've not really looked at them other than your reports on here but there does seem to be a lot more noise about them currently. Silver seems to be doing a pretty dance for folk at the moment but who knows?
Thanks Pete
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Great update from GMG today. GMG have been quietly developing graphene-aluminium-ion batteries. The graphene is produced by GMG in-house using a unique patented process involving cracking methane which produces a very high purity graphene compared to obtaining it from graphite. Core management is all ex-Shell, natural gas division...
The graphene is then perforated on nano-scale, and the perforations filled with aluminium using a method developed by Uni of Queensland and licensed by GMG. Last year they progressed to a pilot production plant for coin cell batteries (2032) and sent out customer trial batteries. Feedback was good. Today's update states they've now doubled energy density and increased power density by a third. The batteries have exceeded the energy density of a Li-ion battery, with potential to 'fully charge an average phone battery in 3 minutes'. It's a much cleaner battery, totally recyclable, no mining (a tiny amount of aluminium involved).
A pouch cell battery is also being developed and trial batteries have been produced. If successful at scale then this will be one of the game-changers people are waiting for in battery storage / battery power.
(https://i.imgur.com/UcRPKfx.png)
Next steps are a final investment decision to produce the coin cells on commercial scale next year, and to get the pouch cell batteries to the point of final investment decision by 2024. Capital raise will be required, or a buy-out.
I had a lot of doubts about their claims when I invested in May 2021 as the claims seemed a bit too good to be true and the CEO comes across a bit like a mad scientist with amazing ideas but not someone who'd bring it to commercial production. But progress has been steady so far and they've executed on everything they said they would. They've established non-binding agreements with Wood Group this year to develop their graphene manufacturing facilities and Bosch in 2021 to design, develop and build their battery production line.
The company has also developed a spray-on graphene coating for coating the heat exchanger on air-con units (could be used on heat pumps?) which increases the air-con energy efficiency by up to 30% through graphene being a very efficient heat conductor. Called 'thermal XR' it's currently being marketed and scaled up for commercial sale in the middle east and US. Nice cash-flow if it takes off. But the batteries are the big win if they keep progressing along the path they're on. Pretty exciting time for battery tech. Anyone interested should go back through a few of the interviews since 2020 with Corey Fleck to get a feel for how they've progressed the technology.
Update on the battery: https://graphenemg.com/gmg-battery-performance-graphene-production/
Interview with Craig Nicol, ceo of GMG about the latest update: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwnXwEudh_U
Good overview of the graphene-aluminium-ion battery tech from earlier this year pre-update:
https://youtu.be/yxhjHSJ_55c
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Exciting to see that the functionality seems to be living up to the expected level. If it scales well then it will be a game changer for the automotive industry and also removes one of the key detracting points for battery tech i.e. excessive mining and difficulty of recycling.
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I've been enjoying Howard Mark's memos for their calm wisdom. I thought this 30min interview with Marks and his co-manager Bob O'Leary was superb. It looks back at memos written by Marks in the run-up to and during the 07-08 global financial crisis. Essential listening for understanding the psychology of market participants.
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo-podcast/the-rewind-global-financial-crisis
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So, in my late fifties and have a few K to invest. I've a few gaps in my NI record so it feels like a no-brainer at the moment to fill these with voluntary contributions. However, just as I've been girding my loins to do this I've been hit with a diagnosis of a cancer with a not especially encouraging prognosis in terms of surviving to see the fruits of my contributions. Average surivival rate somewhere between 1 and 8 years depending on progression. Wonder how to decide to spend 6 years worth of contributions now (I'm fairly sure won't be making up the gaps organically). I don't want to just sit on it and see it slowly disappear via inflation. Can't spend it on visits to Kalymnos or Leonidio, etc (much as I'd like to). Haven't got any worthwhile things to do the hovel. Don't know much about investing in the current "climate". Thoughts?
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There's not much more I feel I can say than I'm very sorry, you have my best wishes.
Without knowing anything else about your circumstances I think caution would be wise. This thread is definitely not suitably qualified to tell you the best approach to invest in those circumstances. Perhaps there are loved ones and dependants to leave funds to. Or charities you care about that you could donate to. Investing might or might not be the best choice. Alternatively a guaranteed fixed income fund such as an annuity or bond fund. I know annuity rates have risen recently and can provide a respectable return.
If the idea is to hopefully grow a long term fund for loved ones then a cautious stockmarket-based approach could be to invest in a passive global index tracker. For guidance I recommend this Moneyvator article as a great place to learn more: https://monevator.com/best-global-tracker-funds/
Any of the tracker funds they list would be suitable for long term growth with low ongoing charges. It won't perform excitingly and may spend years doing not very much, but over a long term it should increase in value at the global average.
Without knowing your circumstances I'm hesitant to suggest anything riskier than that.
If there are passions or goals you'd like to put money towards then its possible to invest in various individual companies or funds that align with whatever your interests and worldviews are.
One example for me is plastics recycling technology in the form of a US company called Digimarc. They're rolling out the plastics separation technology in Europe at the moment under a project called 'Holy Grail' which will mean plastics that would previously not have been recycled can now quickly and easily be separated at the point of disposal using digital laser etching on all plastic packaging which tells a scanner in a sorting machine what sort of plastic it is.
Information here: https://www.digimarc.com/blog/successful-sorting-waste-samples-holygrail-20-open-house
That's not me recommending them as an investment for you - they're volatile and this is much higher risk investing than a global tracker. The potential downside risk (and upside reward) is far greater. It's just as an example of themes you can allocate money towards. Others might be battery technology companies, renewable energy funds, nuclear, EVs, or perhaps tobacco and arms suppliers is more your thing! Whatever floats your boat.
If you wanted to invest in whatever companies or funds you wanted to then it's pretty straightforward. You'd set up an online trading account. I use II, as they allow international trading on nearly all markets. But check fees as different trading accounts use different fee structures. Others may be cheaper for infrequent trading.
Here's Moneyvator's broker guide: https://monevator.com/find-the-best-online-broker/
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One other thing, if you do set up an investment account I highly recommending making it an ISA and allocating your full £20k per year to it if you can. All gains - either dividend income or capital gain - within an ISA are fully tax free. More important than ever in current climate with the recent changes in dividend and capital gains tax allowances being cut.
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Intended to post a 2022 review in early Jan, but have been super busy moving house and retiring from work. Lately it seems I'm a busy gardener.
Below is a review of active trades for 2022 – i.e. short-term trades where I bought and sold during the year. I’ll do my holdings separately in another post.
24 short-term trades during 2022.
17 profitable trades. 6 unprofitable trades. 1 flat.
Avg gain per profitable trade: 47.9% (814.7% / 17)
Avg loss per unprofitable trade: 47.2% (283% / 5)
I made an overall gain of 30.9% on short-term trades during the year, comfortably beating the markets. Much of my outperformance was down to Filo. Removing the Filo effect would have seen me make an overall loss of low single figure %. Still far better than the markets I’m (mostly) invested in:
Nasdaq -30%
S&P500 -23%
TSX -20%
FTSE250 -18%
FTSE100 was flat, much of it due to exchange-rate tailwinds boosting profits, also because it contains a high proportion of the type of companies money seeks out in this environment i.e. profitable dividend-payers.
The loss/gain figures for each trade below are somewhat useless for deducing overall performance – position size relative to overall portfolio matters a great deal. Position size explains why you can lose money on trades more often than making profitable trades, yet overall still make a gain. For example 3 high-percentage losses with small position-sizes does relatively little damage to overall wealth and can be repaired by a medium-sized percent gain on a relatively large position size. The key obviously is avoiding a large loss on something to which you’ve committed a large position size!
In this I failed somewhat in 2022 – my big losers were Illika, Trackwise and Orosur, with each being a 2% position-size of my overall PF - which is still a small risk overall (the advantage of having sizeable portfolio). At least I took action, selling IKA and TWD early in 2022 when it became obvious the interest rates outlook was changing for the long term and unprofitable long-duration tech was going to suffer badly. You only have to look at how stuff like Tesla, Meta and even the tech darlings Apple performed in 2022. If I’d have held longer I’d have lost more.
IKA/TWD/OMI were not wise trades on my part - too large a position size. I should have gone 1%. And I bought all at too high a price in 2021 without properly considering their intrinsic value. Orosur has been my bogey share for three trades over the last two years – the volatility making it a trader’s dream or (for me) worst nightmare. I’m embarrassed how badly I’ve done with this stock, pure FOMO in 2 cases chasing it on drill news, and the last trade (of 0.06% position size) was me just trying to prove to myself I could make it work at least once for a short trade - I didn’t! I should leave it well alone and probably will.
The golden nugget everyone hopes for is the large gain - say anything over 100% - combined with a large position size. It’s exciting seeing something rocket hundreds of % but if all you’ve done is turn £100 into £500 then you have to ask whether all the time, research stress and risk really worth it? Probably not. They come along very rarely in investing: Filo, GGP, Alphamin and Whitehaven were all high-quality assets that came from a deeply under-valued price and multiplied in value many times. PMET is turning into another – I traded this is 2022 for a 15% gain, but then bought back in @ $7 with a 3.5% position size and a long term view to hold as continued excellent drill results showed this likely shaping up into the ‘Filo’ of Lithium i.e. exploration phase of one of the worlds’ largest tier 1 resources. I’m currently up another 100% on PMET since getting back in. I wouldn’t chase here but I would buy weakness. Same for Filo and Alphamin, any weakness is a buy.
Can you identify these sorts of quality assets in advance? In the resources sector yes, and I have multiple times. These resource/commodity market sectors are relatively small, relatively volatile and most of the major money has stayed out of the sector post a major dip in the sector around early 2010s, in favour of chasing the tech growth darlings of the last decade+ (to good effect). In this sector, you can identify under-valued quality companies in advance of the herd if you have a good nose and learn who to listen to, which I’ve developed over 20 years of investing in shit.
If you hold quality assets then volatility is your friend, it’s what give you the big gains. Dare you commit the large position size though..? The essence of risk/reward. I committed to a much larger than average position-size (at a low price) in each of GGP, AFM, WHC and Filo (and now PMET)
Some sells below were on a forced timescale due to needing cash to buy my house – if I hadn’t been house-buying I’d have chosen to keep hold of Centuras Metals and MLX as I have no doubts about their quality and long-term value versus current prices; and kept even more of Filo and Alphamin (still hold very large positions in both).
Figures below relate to:
PF: Starting position % of my overall portfolio - this should reflect commitment based on quality of my research but can also reflect my dumbness and credulity.
Price paid, and when.
Price sold.
% gain or loss after dealing costs. This includes any dividends received in 2022 and takes into account dollar/pound exchange-rate. Because of XR, the gain/loss figure may not correspond directly to sale price/purchase price - for e.g. I made a gain on a couple of trades (Occidental and the first Mosaic trade) despite selling @ a lower price than I bought, due to the XR moving in my favour. The first 3 quarters of 2022 were good for this tailwind. 4th quarter reverted to more typical XR following the tory leadership election (second one not the first one..).
Meridian Mining (0.6% of PF) / $0.55c in 2021 / $0.92 / +63%
NGEX (1.25% of PF) / $1.77 Jan / $2.50 / +38.5%
Nico (0.1% of PF) / free Spin Out shares from owning MLX in 2021 / $1 / +100%
Trackwise (2% of PF) / £2.51 in 2021 / £0.73p / -71.5%
Illika (2% of PF) / £2.13 in 2021 / £1.09 / -49%
Occidental Petroleum (2.5% of PF) / $58.52 March / $58.30 / +4%, inc. dividend
Exxon Mobil (2% of PF) / $96.22 May / $98.75 / +0.002% 😊 XR went against me.
Mosaic (2.1% of PF) / $57.9 March / $57 / +2.2% due to XR
(1% of PF) / $46.7 June / $50.4 / +5.2%
Peabody Energy (1% of PF) / $18.41 July / $21.95 / +13.6%
Vale (1% of PF) / $13.32 Aug / $13.30 / +8.2% inc. divi
Glencore (2% of PF) / £4.69 March / £4.70 / +2.5% inc. divi
(1% of PF) / £4.80 June / £5.02 / +8.5% inc. divi
MetalsX (2% of PF) / $0.37 in 2021 / $0.38 / +6.3% due to XR
Zacapa (1% of PF) / $0.59 Feb / sold 20% @ $0.70 & sold 80% @ 0.21 / -47%
Artemis (1% of PF) / $0.72 in 2021 / $0.48 / -30%
Centaurus Metals (3.6% of PF) / $0.80 in 2021 / $1.02 / +24.5%
Osisko Gold Royalties (1% of PF) / $14.9 May / $14.5 / +- 0% inc. divi
Orosur (2% of PF) / 29.1p in 2021 / 11.3p / -63.5%
(0.06% of PF) / 11p Oct / 8.6p / -22%
Alphamin (6.25% of PF) / $0.57c in 2021 / sold 15% of my holding in 2022 @ $1.10 / +111% inc. divi (of 9.5%)
Filo (6.9% of PF) / $4.85 in 2021 / sold 42% of my holding in 2022 @ between $14.60 - $26.90 / +402%
Patriot Battery Metals (1.5% of PF) / $5.05 Aug / $5.95 / +15%
Adriatic Metals (0.5% of PF) / £1.15 June / £1.28 / +10.2%
It makes me think of the pointless arguing early on in this thread's life, with intelligent people, who aren't committed investors yet seem to know with certainty that it's impossible to beat the market average consistently because they've read some studies and work in a (unrelated) profession, very UKB. It isn’t impossible, it depends on spending the time learning and on which sectors of the market you spend lots of time learning about. Also depend on what timescale you're talking about beating the average - 1 day or 20 years. I’ve beaten the market again for the 4th year running (in a bear market), become financially independent, and retired at 47.
Over the next 10 years I expect I won’t care very much about beating the markets, because the last 4 years of outperformance have given me the freedom whereby the average market return from now on will be just fine thanks 😊.
The average climbing grade is somewhere around VS/HVS, 6a+/6b. But people regularly climb E9 and 9a, perhaps just once or perhaps for year after year, before sliding back down the performance curve. There’s nothing wrong with being average, but I think you don’t have to be average at all times in all walks of life. There are times when you can outperform and times when you cruise along.
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In case anyone is interested in my punter level summary:
Biggest winners:
Atlantic Lithium (ALL / A11) 39.9p
Lithium explorer whose Ewoyaa (Ghana) drill results last year were great. Low cap ex/op ex project. Piedmont will be paying the majority of the upfront costs for which they have a 50% offtake agreement which reduces the risks for a project at this stage (but also reduces some of the potential upside). The remaining ~$30m required to fund through to production could be funded by outstanding Director options (about $30m if all exercised) and/or a potential investment from the MIIF (see below). If further funding is required, the board have stated this would be funded via debt, there should not be any placings required so future dilution shouldn't be excessive.
Upcoming inflection points:
- DFS due Q2/3 2023. Will come with a resource upgrade to somewhere in the region of 35-37mt based on the known drill results. Last year's PFS was based on 30mt and a very conservative lithium price. The resource is still open ended so there is plenty of potential for further upgrades in the future.
- The Ghanaian Government Minerals, Income & Investment Fund have been in talks over investing in the project for months. Assuming they do invest, it is unlikely that Ghana would make things to difficult in the process of approving the mining application so it is likely to be seen as a step in derisking the road to production. MIIF have been involved in a lot of publicity for ALL in the last week, fuelling speculation that an announcement is likely very soon (but such speculation correctly predicts 20 out of every 5 announcements).
Price has been partly kept down by DGR who originally owned ~25% of the company and were on the board. They wanted to sell to one of the mining giants as soon as the discovery was made to free up funds for their next project but the rest of the board saw greater value in seeing things through to production unless an offer is received that is too good to refuse (probably well North of 100p). DGR have been consistently selling into any good news or positive price movements and are now down to 3.8%. Their plan is to continue selling for the next ~3 months until their stake is down to 0 so they will continue to add some short term resistance to price increases.
Some potential risks:
- Delays or rejection of the mining license application. Should be low risk but never zero.
- Ghana is generally very pro mining and stable as far as African regimes go. But they have a LOT of debt. This could lead to political instability with the rising costs of servicing that debt and there's no guarantee that future regimes would be so pro mining.
- The general economic climate is not ideal for speculation on future earnings.
I scaled in between 15p and 20p for an average of about 17p. Sold 3/4 of my stake last spring in the high 50s on the back of drill result hype. It was sold with the intention of buying back in, which I did when the price calmed back down to the 30s.
They had a stock split last winter which should add some future value to those of us who held ALL back then. ALL's Ivory Coast & Chad gold prospects were spun off to form Ricca Resources. Ricca are at a much earlier stage, are currently unlisted, with an expected IPO on ASX Q2/3 this year. Ricca have since got involved in an Ivory Coast Lithium/Tantalum prospect with Firering.
Gilead (GILD) 83.5
Bought 2021 at an average price in the high 50s (plus dividend yields of 3.5% p/a which were auto reinvested).
My knowledge of big pharmaceuticals is limited but the valuation after covid didn't make any sense given their financials and their antiviral/cancer portfolio.
Sold 85% of my holding in the mid 80s. Will likely offload the rest soon.
Filo (FIL). Pete's already said it all better than I could. Thanks a lot for the heads up Pete! I sold around half, what is left is all profit.
Cornish Metals (CUSN). I scaled out last winter/spring in the mid-twenties for about a 100% profit. Another one that I'm sure everyone has heard plenty about.
Argentex (AGFX) 130p
Foreign Exchange fintech. Was looking very undervalued in the Autumn, picked up a small position as a short-medium term trade. Sold half at a 30% profit recently.
Biggest losers:
I was slower than Pete to get out of Ilika (IKA). I hope I learned some valuable lessons on this one and should have sold sooner. There were a few warning signs of missed targets and returning to the markets for more funding but I gave them the benefit of the doubt when I should have been more ruthless and moved on sooner. Then the deteriorating macro economic outlook made them even less attractive. Took a 50% hit on this one.
Kavango (KAV) 1.4p
A high risk punt on a junior explorer with Copper/Nickel/Rare Earth/Precious metal prospects in Botswana. I'm confident there are large resources there but I lost confidence that they have the team to prove it. There are a lot of challenges with the geology but the board made a lot of mistakes in their drilling tactics and their marketing/fund raising strategy. Another ~50% loss.
Polarean (POLX)
Sold in last summer's spike. I made a decent return on them last year, but not enough to undo the previous year's loss from the delays in getting FDA approval. Lost 25% overall.
Some sells below were on a forced timescale due to needing cash to buy my house – if I hadn’t been house-buying I’d have chosen to keep hold of Centuras Metals and MLX as I have no doubts about their quality and long-term value versus current prices; and kept even more of Filo and Alphamin (still hold very large positions in both).
Bad timing on needing cash for my first house purchase meant I ended up taking a much smaller position than I otherwise would have taken for my very first foray into investing (which was a totally uninformed punt on an unlisted company :o). It did extremely well, but my small initial position stopped it from being life changing. I'm sure every investor has a similar story on the one that got away.
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Atlantic Lithium (ALL / A11) 39.9p
- DFS due Q2/3 2023. Will come with a resource upgrade to somewhere in the region of 35-37mt based on the known drill results. Last year's PFS was based on 30mt and a very conservative lithium price.
... Half an hour after I wrote this, they announced an increase in the Ewoyaa resource estimate to 35.3mt.
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Nice, not familiar with ALL but then I'm not familiar with the Lithium sector beyond PMET and some general gossip. Always looked on from the sidelines until PMET convinced me to take the plunge, as it's obviously a hot sector but seemingly prone to the meme sentiment taking hold the same as for Uranium and Silver at times of exuberance. (Which means plenty of pumped-up garbage stocks among the few genuinely good ones, for anyone tempted by the next amazing sounding narrative...).
Recent deal between GM and and N.American lithium miner, Carmakers increasingly looking at missing out the middlemen and going direct to offtake deals/JV's/buyouts of miners for nickel, lithium, cobalt:
https://www.tradingview.com/news/mtnewswires.com:20230201:A2833317:0-national-bank-notes-gm-s-investment-in-lithium-americas-sees-more-deal-making-opportunity-for-mining-companies/
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I think there's a good chance that an OEM takes over Ewoyaa's remaining 50% at some point. I wouldn't be shocked if Piedmont's interest got bought out by an OEM somewhere down the line too.
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Saw this chart on twitter today by GS. Fantastic visual representation of how fortunes change and revert to mean. Last year's losers have started out as this year's winners YTD (but only 1.5 months in and plenty of road left for them to sink again...).
Of the 3 sectors that were last year's winners, 2 are still winning, 1 is now losing YTD.
Commodities and infrastructure still winning. Which chimes with how both sectors performed during the 1970s stagflationary environment.
Top right quadrant. Stuff is notably absent.
(This is US based. UK market would look different with more flat or positive over 2022/2023)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FompYGEXsAAtssP?format=jpg&name=medium)
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I’ve been meaning to summarise my first leap/dive/belly flop into investing for a while, but never quite managed to put the time aside to do it. So here we go. I’m keeping crypto-gambling out of this…
I felt I wanted to be part of it all. See how it works, feel the risk and hopefully get the reward. I’m pretty financially secure with no dependents, so losing some cash felt like it would not be too worrisome. Speculate to accumulate and all those clichés.
At the end of lockdown, I had some spare cash due to steady earnings and having little to spend on and was getting a bit of FOMO seeing everyone else getting rich easily. (red flag #1)
Read up on here, asked some questions, did some research. Didn’t expect to be doing a high volume of trades per month and wanted access to some specific funds for my SIPP, so went with Hargreaves Landsdown for the platform, despite higher fees.
I’m not going to go much into my SIPP. It’s pretty diversified and mainly in thematic funds: renewable energy, sustainable development, some Asia (currently doing shite), little bit of mining. It’s currently sitting a few % up, – not overly bothered and not looking at that much.
Then there’s the shares….
Oh the wonderful stock picks. What everyone says is: “learn, understand, do your research”. Ok, so I read a pile of shit on the internet, read up on some companies. Got excited by tech and felt the need to jump in – had cash to hand and no time to waste (red flag #2).
I got quite excited by Arrival EV as a concept and an opportunity. Given it was a start-up with no revenue, sales, etc. etc. it was always a risk. I initially put about 12.5% of my available pot into that (note, this was only about 2% of my total investments at the time).
I also put smaller amounts into:
- Hyundai
- TPI Composites
- Filo Mining
One of the issues with HL and any share trading account is the base fees you have to pay per transaction – this is difficult for the first-time investor who maybe wants to “dabble” with smaller amounts as you are instantly at a £20 loss (£10 to buy and then £10 to sell), so for a £200 share purchase you need to make 10% to just break even. This encourages you to trade bigger.
I started writing this a few months ago and now finally getting round to finishing it off, as I have finally sold ALL my holdings in FILO mining and I can’t thank Pete enough for the tip-off if it weren’t for Filo I’d be sitting on a 38% loss right now, but as it stands I’m 7% up on my full ISA and I started around May 2021 at the end of the amazing year of gains for tech etc.
For context, I bought FILO 3 times to total of £1088 invested. I just sold my last tranche of shares and my total received across all sales was £2519, or 131% gain.
On reflection, my first few share picks had effectively zero research (even though I thought I had done plenty at the time). I realise now that I picked shares on past momentum (duh) and interesting products, rather than digging into financials etc. What I’ve come to realise is that you really need a passion and interest for this shit to do well in it, and it’s pretty time and mental resource consuming. I’m really glad I did it and I’m not at all bothered about barely winning and almost heavily losing (Arrival can’t lose me any more as it’s down 97% on what I bought at….) as I learnt a lot about how it works, about myself, my risk tolerance (reasonable), my ability to sit it out (better than I expected), my ability to research and pick winners (worse than I expected). But I think I’m potentially out of the stock-picking game now. Maybe when I have some spare cash again I’ll drop some on Pete’s latest tip off haha.
I guess my rambling tale is a bit of a cautionary one for those who feel the FOMO – yes, there are big wins out there and if you pick the right ones, it’s an easy* way to make some money but, BUT, it’s only easy when you do the ground work and actually understand what you’re doing…and you might not know if you understand what you’re doing until you really have skin in the game (or you might not realise you don’t fully understand until it’s too late…).
My Triodos sustainable equity fund has grown 9% over the same period – yes, you cede your thinking to others but there’s a reason they’re paid to do what they do – they’re all just professional versions of Pete, out there researching, understanding and picking…
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Could go here or in the 'Electric vehicles' thread.. I received an interesting update from Adamas in my inbox this morning, regarding the announcement by Tesla this week that their next motor will be free of rare-earths:
At Tesla’s 2023 Investor Day on March 1st the company revealed that its next generation PMSM traction motors would not use rare earth permanent magnets.
As stated by Colin Campbell, VP Powertrain Engineering at Tesla, “as the world transitions to clean energy, demand for rare earths is really increasing dramatically and not only is it going to be a little hard to meet that demand but mining that rare earth, it has environmental and health risks”.
Key takeaways from Adamas Intelligence:
Likely a ferrite magnet powered PMSM
To-date, no perfect alternatives to NdFeB
Not all rare earth production is equal when it comes to environmental and health impacts
Environmental footprint of a motor using ferrite can be worse than NdFeB
NdFeB market implications: Expected to be minor
The media and market’s reaction to the news has been largely overblown, speaking to a broad misunderstanding of the NdFeB market’s supply and demand fundamentals.
Looking forward to 2035, Adamas forecasts that global demand for NdFeB magnets will triple while global production will only double, constrained by long lead times to bring online new rare earth oxide production.
In relation to the magnitude of the expected supply gap, a Tesla-driven demand drop would go virtually unnoticed.
A more detailed analysis here, should be interesting for anyone interested in gaining a better understanding of what's going on behind the scenes of manufacturing the motors and batteries inside an EV: https://www.adamasintel.com/tesla-rare-earth-free-motor/
This interests me because I'm heavily invested in various commodities required for the increased electrification of energy grids/transport/automation. I'm not invested in rare earths though - I got burnt by the narrative in 2013 with the Mountain Pass fiasco (Molycorp - now bankrupt), but I did make a quick 70% gain on Ucore in 2021.
The direction of travel is clearly away from certain commodities that have bad ESG optics for western consumers (despite much of it being a charade, using SE Asian heavily coal-powered metals refining and manufacturing). Especially reduced/elimination of Cobalt. But also potentially in the longer term (decade+) reductions in Lithium demand as trials of lithium-free high performance batteries (GMG...) come to market.
In the near term I wonder if now could be a good point to get back into the rare earths market, despite the theatrics from Tesla. Two companies stand out to me from previous knowledge and experience - Lynas and Ucore.
Lynas is an Australian rare earths producer listed on the ASX. Ucore is a N.American company, owner of the Bokan Ridge rare earths deposit in Alsaka, but more interestingly owners of a new technolgy in rare earths processing. The Bokan Ridge deposit is on the very slow train to development. But I've been following them as they develop their processing technology and it appears this is now the company's main focus, following some legal disputes last year over ownership of the tech. I expect if they make the processing technology scalable -with massive support from the US government as per announcements by Biden over the last 12 months - then they'll aim to be taking rare earth ore from the few non-Chinese producers, such as Lynas. The theme of commodity security is the theme of the first half of this decade at least..
From Ucore's website:
Through strategic partnerships, this plan includes disrupting the People’s Republic of China’s control of the North American REE supply chain through the near-term development of a heavy and light rare-earth processing facility in the US State of Louisiana, subsequent SMCs in Alaska and Canada and the longer-term development of Ucore’s heavy-rare-earth-element mineral-resource property at Bokan Mountain on Prince of Wales Island, Alaska.
https://ucore.com/
Anyone tempted in rare earths investing needs to understand not all rare earths are equal. The heavy rare earths are high value. Light rare earths much less valuable. I made this mistake with Mountain Pass (Molycorp), not understanding that their product was majority low-value light rare earths. And also need to understand that, up to now, China controls the processing of rare earth ore so that the miners are constrained who they can sell to. This pricing control also contributed to killing Molycorp, who had to ship their ore to China for processing. Guess who bought Mountain Pass last year...
Anyway, an interesting niche backwater that I used to be invested in and happily exited with minor scars. But this Tesla announcement (which I think is typically bullshit Tesla contraindication) reminds me that now, with the advancement of Ucore's processing technology, perhaps the rare earths market once again has potential for some interesting near-term catalysts as the cold war with Chinese/Russian commodities develops. I'm not invested but will be keeping an eye on things.
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This isn't particularly new, and in motor design circles I don't think anyone has done much more more than raise an eyebrow in mild intrigue. There has been pretty intensive research on rare earth free motors for a long time now, be that induction, wound rotor, or some form of re-free PM or reluctance machine. The benefits are mainly the reduced cost and reliance on China, although as Pete points out a lot of that is optics. And then there's all the stuff required for batteries anyway. All the big manufacturers have their own ideas on what's best but it's hard to get away from the efficiency that rare earth PM machines provide, and things like induction machines are usually limited to secondary motors. But re-free motor cars are out there, the Renault Zoe for example. Intrigued to see what Tesla come up with (and if they actually follow through with it).
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It's here! What you've all been waiting for... the biannual Adamas Intelligence 'State of Charge' EV battery + battery metals report:
https://www.adamasintel.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Adamas-Intelligence-State-of-Charge-EVs-Batteries-and-Battery-Materials-2022-H2.pdf
Large increases year-on-year in sales of EVs, battery capacity deployed, Nickel/Lithium/Cobalt deployed. Especially in Asia.
China, with their cheap coal-fired electricity, still massively dominate the manufacture of batteries along with the processing of battery metals. For resource investors the holy grail* is ESG-friendly supplies of nickel and lithium (good luck with finding ESG-friendly supplies of cobalt in the quantities required, I don't bother trying to find investments).
The predicted bottleneck in supply of battery metals and batteries is due to the good reason of trying to do it without totally fucking the environment. 'The ev industry is “going to be living a big lie for quite some time”' - as the Economist put it in this article on the EV industry (https://www.economist.com/business/2022/08/14/could-the-ev-boom-run-out-of-juice-before-it-really-gets-going?utm_campaign=a.coronavirus-special-edition&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=20230225&utm_content=ed-picks-article-link-4&etear=nl_special_4&utm_campaign=a.coronavirus-special-edition&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=2/25/2023&utm_id=1501831):
In June Bloombergnef cast doubt on its earlier prediction that the cost of buying and running an ev would be as low as for a fossil-fuel car by 2024. More distant targets, such as the eu’s coming ban on new sales of carbon-burning cars by 2035, may not be met. Could the ev boom run out of juice before it gets going in earnest?
On paper, there ought to be plenty of batteries to go round. Benchmark Minerals, a consultancy, has analysed manufacturers’ declared plans and found that, if they materialise, 282 new gigafactories should come online worldwide by 2031. That would take total global capacity to 5,800gwh. It is also a big “if”. Bernstein calculates that current and promised future supply from the six established battery-makers—BYD and CATL of China; LG, Samsung and SK Innovation of South Korea; and Panasonic of Japan—adds up to 1,360gwh by the end of the decade. The balance would have to come from newcomers, and being a newcomer in a capital-intensive industry is never easy.
The optimistic overall capacity projections conceal other problems. Matteo Fini of S&P Global Mobility, a consultancy, notes that gigafactories take three years to build but require longer—possibly a few extra years—to manufacture at full capacity. As such, actual output by 2030 may fall short. Moreover, manufacturers’ unique technologies and specifications mean that cells from one factory are usually not interchangeable with those from another, which could create further bottlenecks.
Most troubling for Western carmakers is China’s dominance of battery-making. The country houses close to 80% of the world’s current cell-manufacturing capacity. Benchmark Minerals forecasts that China’s share will decline in the next decade or so, but only a bit—to just under 70%. By then America would be home to just 12% of global capacity, with Europe accounting for most of the rest.
...
Even if the West’s ev industry somehow managed to secure enough metals and battery-making capacity, it would still face a giant problem in the middle of the supply chain, refining, where China enjoys near-monopolies (see chart 3). Chinese companies refine nearly 70% of the world’s lithium, 84% of its nickel and 85% of its cobalt. Trafigura forecasts that the shares for the last two of these will remain above 75% for at least the next five years. And as with battery manufacturers, Chinese refiners gobble up dirty coal-generated electricity. On top of that, according to Trafigura, both European and North American firms are also expected to rely on foreign suppliers, often Chinese ones, for at least half the capacity to convert refined ores into the materials that go into batteries.
Western governments grasp the urgent need to diversify their suppliers. Last year Joe Biden, America’s president, unveiled a blueprint for a domestic battery supply chain. His huge infrastructure law, passed in 2021, set aside $3bn for battery-making in America. The Inflation Reduction Act, which he signed into law on August 16th, also includes sweeteners for the industry, so long as the ores, refined materials and components come from America or allied countries. The eu, which created a battery alliance in 2017 to co-ordinate public and private efforts, says €127bn was invested last year across the supply chain, with an additional €382bn expected by 2030. Most of this is likely to land downstream, helping the West become self-sufficient in the production of finished cells by 2027.
That is something. And newfound deposits, better mining technology, cleverer battery chemistry and sacrifices on performance may yet combine to bring the market into balance. More probably, as Jean-François Lambert, a commodities consultant, puts it, the ev industry is “going to be living a big lie for quite some time”.
(https://i.imgur.com/kWwKCXY.png)
* Centauras Metals (nickel), PNRL (nickel) and PMET (lithium) are my choices for exploration and development-stage companies. Along with Ecora and Altius Minerals for royalties on producing nickel, cobalt and copper assets (among other minerals). I currently hold PNRL and PMET, Ecora and Altius. Sold CTM for profit last year for house purchase.
Of those, CTM and Ecora are currently looking cheap. CTM a bargain at current weakness in price - anything under a dollar is cheap imo. Ecora pays a regular chunky dividend. Although general markets are wobbling on various anxieties so who knows, maybe will get even cheaper.
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Cheers for the link Pete, not seen that yet. I'll have a read later.
I have to say that I'm out of both PNRL and PMET.
Sheldon and his selling was frustrating, so PNRL is on the watchlist for now. Left with a small profit.
PMET was a good one for me, out with a 366% profit. Why? It hit my selling point. Initially I'd put a big chunk of cash in on a Monday and took back my initial investment on the Fri, leaving the profits on the table and it recently hit it's target. So I've moved the profits into Brunswick Exploration (BRW) who are also in the lithium space, with plenty of possible catalysts coming soon. Cashed up for the year. Drilling starts soon.ive also a decent position in Sigma Lithium who will soon be a producer.
I never did update were I ended last year, I've been slapped around the face with long covid and writing has been difficult.
I finished my first full year in quite an amazing place considering it wasn't the easiest year and I finished over 30% up on my PF 🍻
I'm still quite shocked. I was up at one point over 59% and didn't react quickly enough when the market dropped but lesson learnt and I've been quicker to sell since and also to take profits.
Thanks to Pete, Filo was the biggest chunk of that - they say know what you own and I did my DD properly and invested big. I think at one point it was 52% of my PF. It's nothing like that now. Spent a lot of the year with over half of my PF in cash, quite sensibly I think, so pretty chuffed.
Anyways - this year is tougher. So still 50/50 cash and longs.
Sold out of Whitehaven but will get back in at some point as it's dropped hugely since. I'd only invested in that as we primarily use smokeless fuel on our narrowboat and I wanted to offset rising costs. Doubled my money and made enough to pay for all our energy for maybe 3 years, including electricity.
Still invested in coal with HCC and Corsa but they produce met that's used in the production of steel, so a completely different market.
My biggest position is Ivanhoe Electric at around 5% of PF. Top management and leader, really a tech company when you dig deeper and perhaps a growing thesis that they'll end up a royalty company. Long term hold.
Energy - RIG BORR and KLXE provide services and that sector is pretty much at the bottom of the 8 year cycle. Up already between 25-50% on those three. Looking to add Valaris if the price is right.
I'm in EC in Columbia for dividends, the government owns 88% of them and as such has an interest in dividends being high. Jurisdiction? No worse than Alphamin currently. VTLE is another recent purchase.
I've a small position in Greatland, alongside a terrible investment in Sandstorm Gold. Down 25% on that one. Recently sold out of Dundee with a 20% profit. Still got some Filo which I guess counts as a precious metals play too. I'm definitely not a gold bug.
Tin plays are Alphamin and MLX. A bagholder on MLX after buying the bottom, then quadrupling my investment somewhere near the recent top. What a plum!
Vale is the only big miner I have. Big on iron, nickel and manganese.
Then I have quite a few juniors, some of which I'm up around 50% on such as Faraday Copper and ATX. Both bought due to the folks invested in them. Pierre Lassonde and the Lundins are people who mean business.
Worst performance is by Vizsla Copper, down 47% but learning patience is the only green here so far. After that, Aldebaran, Surge, NGEX, Camino and Largo fill out the PF.
As far as cobalt plays, then the only one I know of is JRV on the Aus market. Currently not liked by anyone much, the chart is horrendous, the price of cobalt is dropping, the quarter results were dire BUT... definitely a contrarian play if you're that way inclined.
Not expecting great things this year - lots of chop and unless one of the explorers drills something of note, I'd be happy to finish the year even. A big crash would mean I'd just buy what I have even cheaper, hence the cash on the sidelines.
Pete mentioned previously about going big on Filo, which also worked for me and I'm sure there's definitely something in my PF that I'll go big on this year.
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Always interesting to hear what you've been up to Kelvin, you appear to have a 'good nose' for this as they say.
Sheldon Iwentash selling his PNRL shares is a bit frustrating I agree - it will keep a lid on upside in the short-term - but anyone investing in this company has to accept this as part of the fabric. He part funded the company at a very early stage and consequently holds millions of shares at a very low price that he doesn't need to hold for the long-term to make huge profits - he's making huge profits now. He owns 6.5 million directly and another 7 million shares owned through his ThreeD Capital fund. He'll be selling-down these for a good while yet.
I'm holding for the long term on this one, as I have faith in what the EM geophysics suggests for the link-up zone at Selebi - with nickel apparently being one of the easier minerals to find with EM when there's no chance of conflating by the presence of graphite (not present at Selebi); I place a lot of weight on Warren Irwin's opinion - one of the rare straightforward more honest guys in this industry who doesn't seem to feel the need to bullshit, perhaps as he made it very big on long/shorting BreX and then Nexgen early in his career; along with two other people positive on this one; and the involvement of Boris Kamstra (Alphamin's ex ceo) gives me confidence this is the real deal in terms of an ESG-friendly, western-friendly, nickel-sulfide development in a good jurisdiction.
That said PNRL really botched a recent raising. Short term balls-up.
General market fear providing cheap entries at the moment for Filo and Afm among others.
Bit of info on PNRL from Warren Irwin. I'd listen to him on resource investing, less so on any other topic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fkZGJV1gzw
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Of those, CTM and Ecora are currently looking cheap. CTM a bargain at current weakness in price - anything under a dollar is cheap imo. Ecora pays a regular chunky dividend. Although general markets are wobbling on various anxieties so who knows, maybe will get even cheaper.
Update on CTM in case anyone was tempted.. last night they announced a 6 months delay to the DFS (the final feasibility study required before a final investment decision to proceed to construction) for their nickel sulfide project. This on top of previous delays to the DFS. That, combined with market jitters, suggest this could go much lower back to the 70 area. Long term, it's a top quality asset that will ether get bought or JV'd within 3 years. Short term, further weakness possibly ahead. A very good opportunity for the brave with a 2-3 year view.
Various shares in my areas of interest are breaking down below long-term support lines as the financial sector fallout continues. I opened a (tiny, 0.025%) position in bitcoin miner Argo Blockchain two days ago on a combination of technical signals that suggest a turnaround. My sell target is 32p.
Credit Suisse the next over the cliff edge..?
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Credit Suisse is looking iffy :blink:
Currently sat on hands, it's been a strange couple of days, lots of things currently cheaper but is that as cheap as they go? A strong hold on my cash is needed for a while longer I think.
Filo definitely down in the realms of starting to make sense again.
Cheers for the video re PNRL Pete. I've no dispute with regards to them being a great equity, just not for me currently. Although if they get even cheaper...
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Yep volatile times again, no surprise there.
Depending on where one's focus is - growth or income (dividends) - and depending on timescale - short-term speculating or long term accumulating - there are some great opportunities arising over the last week or so. Glencore and Ecora are both starting to look very juicy for long term annual income as their prices slide. They both have well-covered dividends (3x covered) of 7.5% and 5.8% respectively. But I'm banking on both to head even lower towards their 3 year moving averages in this current volatility. Will likely put in a bid on both just above the 3-year MA's.
Alphamin also a great income stock now at around 8% divi on current price, with a v.significant growth upside ($1.80 - $2 fair value on Mpana South). Again could retest and overshoot its 3-year MA at 69c. But in a different risk league compared to the above two which deal in far lower risk jurisdictions overall.
Anything of quality in the growth stocks I follow (e.g. Filo, Pmet, Ctm) all currently at attractive prices but can always go lower in this environment.
edit: lots of things currently cheaper but is that as cheap as they go?
In volatile times like these when prices are sliding, it can be difficult to know what's sliding into oversold (and therefore a likely bottom or at least very good value assuming nothing is fundamentally wrong with the company) versus what's sliding from overvalued to a 'normal' price. This is when some basic charting skills really help to spot over-reactions (charting really helps all the time).
Out of Filo, Ctm, Pmet and Afm, only Afm is currently oversold on the daily RSI - it dipped into oversold today. None are oversold on the weekly RSI. That's useful knowledge but it's only one indicator among a suite to consider. edit and ctm.. was looking at the weekly.
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Cheers Pete - AFM has too much of my cash currently tho.
I just increased my BORR position by 50%, it's now over 5% of my PF... my hands got itchy.
Yeah, a little technical knowledge does help sometimes - I'm honestly winging it here. It's all a bit mad just how contagious the bank crap can be. Oil, gas, copper etc etc etc. It's almost nonsensical.
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It's fast contagion because it's all so automated - oil, gas, copper and some other industrial commodities have reacted the way they have today because the probability of a recessionary second half of 2023 has increased - or at least the probability of a narrative about the increased likelihood of a recessionary second half has increased! etc. etc. (along with changes in various other probabilities inc. Russia escaltion, China etc. etc.) Next week or tomorrow the probabilities can change again and prices whipsaw. I wouldn't pay too much attention to daily and weekly moves as it can drive one crazy trying to understand. Ultimately quality will out. I just try to spot opportunities according to fundamentals and then act on technical triggers given by charts.
Afm also has a big chunk of me - currently around 10% of my total pf. Paying me handsomely in divi's :)
btw Glencore is now the most oversold it's been on the daily RSI since March 2020, for context.
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Quite a few people noticing Glencore today - that was one of the first companies I did any proper DD on. I missed out there.
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Sounds like Credit Suisse will be backstopped by the swiss central bank 'if required'. A total basket case of a business - as brilliantly explained in this FT film (https://www.ft.com/video/44f4b910-80f3-4728-a846-89e768b8a099) - which deserves to burn to the ground. Except it would probably hurt a lot of innocent people. Although in the case of CS it sounds like the proportion of innocent people banking with them may be notably small and would be doing the world a huge justice by vaporising their money.
Scenario A: ECB now free to raise rates tomorrow without crashing the economy, as would have happened had they raised rates (along with the Fed and UK next week) as CS is going off the cliff. All this banking turmoil has a slowing effect on the economy, because as banks' valuations fall credit to business becomes even more expense, meaning economy naturally slows, meaning central banks don't need to raise rates as high as previously feared to fight inflation, as inflation naturally falls due to slowing economy.
Scenario B: Credit Suisse still goes to the wall despite central bank backstop. Rich and powerful criminals get any assets they failed to remove vaporised. ECB raise rates tomorrow along with Fed and BoE next week. Contagion spreads, certain amount of wider fallout. Same ultimate outcome as above but over a longer timeframe with more pain along the way.
Scenario C: inflation isn't demand side led but supply side. Therefore it turns out either A or B above can happen but inflation continues to stay high despite the economy tanking. Stagflation ensues as per 1970s.
I'm of the view that it's going to be C, as have been for the last 12-18 months, because of the requirements for resources to create the sort of low-carbon world the west is demanding, and the calculations in the face of this by the 'non-West', . But hope for A.
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UBS in talks to buy Credit Suisse.
If it goes through it creates a monster much larger than Switzerland's GDP, would be around 1.5x. Far too big to allow to fail in future.
If it doesn't go through then CS toast? With fallout.
edit, too much contagion and loss of confidence among investors now. Social media much quicker than 2007/8 to sow doubt. Weekend failures/deals/bailouts seem inevitable, more next week, then Fed/BoE pausing hikes next week has potential to send stocks and bonds into melt-up territory.
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Weekend failures/deals/bailouts seem inevitable, more next week, then Fed/BoE pausing hikes next week has potential to send stocks and bonds into melt-up territory.
I'm in the 'one more rise and we done' camp but in all honesty, trying to second-guess the Fed, BTFD investors, banks going to the wall, the ECB and my own inexperience is pretty futile.
A meltup does look increasingly likely in the short term tho and I'm not sure how to play it.
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A meltup does look increasingly likely in the short term tho and I'm not sure how to play it.
The second part this thread’s title. There’ll always be more opportunities to buy, melt-ups however come along rarely and should be sold imo.
Can always leave some in quality names, don’t need to sell everything. If the market does go on a bender I’ll certainly be taking profits but leaving some in each of afm, filo, pmet, pnrl, ecora and whc. But I need the divi income now, others circumstances may differ.
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Expected but still incredible to see - UBS forced by the Swiss national bank to buy Credit Suisse (https://www.ft.com/content/ec4be743-052a-4381-a923-c2fbd7ea9cfd), for $1bn at a fraction of its book value. Shareholders of Switzerland's oldest major bank to be pretty much zeroed. $10 billion per day was being withdrawn from CS by customers this week. I encourage anyone interested to pay £1 and read the FT today (headline says 'offers to buy' but the details show its an offer made under duress).
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Expected but still incredible to see - UBS forced by the Swiss national bank to buy Credit Suisse (https://www.ft.com/content/ec4be743-052a-4381-a923-c2fbd7ea9cfd), for $1bn at a fraction of its book value. Shareholders of Switzerland's oldest major bank to be pretty much zeroed. $10 billion per day was being withdrawn from CS by customers this week. I encourage anyone interested to pay £1 and read the FT today (headline says 'offers to buy' but the details show its an offer made under duress).
Article available here https://archive.is/awxQe
I know very little about the banking sector, but from the outside it is interesting how much it has to do with market confidence. It seems hard to grasp whether these institutions do have deep issues because they're never allowed to actually play out. Seems similar to panic buying in a lot of ways.
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UBS can surely not fail, I assume.
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Expected but still incredible to see - UBS forced by the Swiss national bank to buy Credit Suisse (https://www.ft.com/content/ec4be743-052a-4381-a923-c2fbd7ea9cfd), for $1bn at a fraction of its book value. Shareholders of Switzerland's oldest major bank to be pretty much zeroed. $10 billion per day was being withdrawn from CS by customers this week. I encourage anyone interested to pay £1 and read the FT today (headline says 'offers to buy' but the details show its an offer made under duress).
Article available here https://archive.is/awxQe
I know very little about the banking sector, but from the outside it is interesting how much it has to do with market confidence. It seems hard to grasp whether these institutions do have deep issues because they're never allowed to actually play out. Seems similar to panic buying in a lot of ways.
This is basically it. Financial institutions can't afford bank runs, whilst simultaneously allowing us all to borrow their money to buy houses/cars etc. So to avoid that and maintain confidence things have to be backstopped. Risky for UBS, but the spillover of a failure to them would probably cost more than it does to just buy CS at a discount.
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Expected but still incredible to see - UBS forced by the Swiss national bank to buy Credit Suisse (https://www.ft.com/content/ec4be743-052a-4381-a923-c2fbd7ea9cfd), for $1bn at a fraction of its book value. Shareholders of Switzerland's oldest major bank to be pretty much zeroed. $10 billion per day was being withdrawn from CS by customers this week. I encourage anyone interested to pay £1 and read the FT today (headline says 'offers to buy' but the details show its an offer made under duress).
Article available here https://archive.is/awxQe
I know very little about the banking sector, but from the outside it is interesting how much it has to do with market confidence. It seems hard to grasp whether these institutions do have deep issues because they're never allowed to actually play out. Seems similar to panic buying in a lot of ways.
(edit Matt said the same as me)
The issue *is* mostly all about confidence - the issue now post-SVB is panic selling in an opposite of FOMO. Because banking at heart works on the principle of a magic trick called maturity transformation where your money is put to work to make more money or create growth, but it only works if people have confidence.
When depositors confidence falters the system wobbles, and some of the weakest links fail. Credit Suisse is Europe's weakest link by far due to a complete shitshow of corporate governance (among other issues) over the last few years. This time around the regulations and tools are doing job a better of fire-fighting (cf 2008). But there'll be more. The financial system is currently facing massive levels of fear because it all relies on people not panicking, and when panic starts it's self-fulfilling and creates its own problem. The mass anxiety will seek out the (perceived) weakest links like water. The fundamentals of CS - liquidity, capital to cover losses etc. - were sound (in the sense of being able to fulfill its demands, not in the sense of being a well-run business it wasn't it's a shitshow of an organisation which is why it's Europe's current weakest link).
The reason the banking system relies on confidence (and is destroyed by fear) is interesting and there's a really good explainer here: https://www.ft.com/content/c6fb49cb-20fc-4b8d-b693-9eff09f41580
When money is taken in from companies and individuals, it's put to work by the bank for longer duration purposes. As long as the depositor is relaxed at knowing, in theory, they couldn't get access to all their money immediately on a particular day if everyone else also wanted access to all *their* money immediately on the same day, then the system works well to create future growth.
As SVB's depositors discovered, as soon as there's a trigger to cause doubt in the magic trick - in that case SVB's over-exposure to long-term bonds that had fallen in value due to the rapid rate rises by the Fed - then people act rationally and want their money back 'in case'. The problem is this causes the issue the panic is trying to avoid. Bit like a prisoner's dilemma type scene.
The best run bank in the world couldn't withstand a total loss of confidence and ensuing panic, without state support once everyone wants all their money back all at the same time the magic system no longer works.
So it won't be solved by any 'tool' it will be solved by sentiment. In the meantime other global events will play out. This will be a good opportunity for autocrats to increase the pain on the west, which is why the west are so desperate to fight each panic event asap.
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I think in some respects this all makes current events more interesting and completely different to 2007/8. There were no complex derivatives at play here (at least to my knowledge), it was a simple error that first year econ/finance students are taught about
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Also, there will be huge repercussions following on from this ongoing panic event. The most obvious are there will be likely be some kind of melt-up event in perceived safe havens (already began), a response by central banks, the future path of rates will need to be reconsidered (starting Weds in the US, Thurs in the UK), inflation will potentially be a big problem now it can't be controlled via rate rises - as everyone was saying for the last 2 years - how much of problem we don't yet know as it depend if the west goes into recession or worse; commodities will rear their heads again; and various other second/third order effects unknowable.
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I think in some respects this all makes current events more interesting and completely different to 2007/8. There were no complex derivatives at play here (at least to my knowledge), it was a simple error that first year econ/finance students are taught about
Yep but more pertinent to me is this will has the potential to be 2008 but with the social media of 2023. That's what's contributing to the velocity of the panic. This dynamic is ultimately about emotion and sentiment, not terrible fundamentals (bad as some of the fundamentals no doubt are).
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UBS can surely not fail, I assume.
Any bank can fail - try taking all the money out of it at once, because you're concerned it will fail, and it will fail.
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There's an irony in all this that at the end of it when the dust has settled a bunch of tech bros in Bay area creating fintech, panic-withdrawing their money from a traditional bank system, may have been responsible for the trigger that changes the whole traditional banking system.
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Worst performance is by Vizsla Copper, down 47% but learning patience is the only green here so far. After that, Aldebaran, Surge, NGEX, Camino and Largo fill out the PF.
Pete mentioned previously about going big on Filo, which also worked for me and I'm sure there's definitely something in my PF that I'll go big on this year.
An actionable heads-up for the quick, with a stomach for high-risk.
NGEX are part of the Lundin Group that owns Filo and Josemaria. They're exploring in the same Vicuna district of the Andes, just along the ridgeline from Filo. They've explored a few different zones around its Los Helados project over the last few years, with decent results. But the untested 'potro cliffs' zone was always the zone with potentially the biggest prize. This zone borders Filo's project area a few km's down the Chile/Argentina border ridgeline to the south.
NGEX just announced this morning its first drill result from the potro cliffs. A very high-grade 60m of 7.5%+ copper equiv including 10m of 18% copper. Genuinely bonanza grade. To quote: ''Today's results include the highest copper grades drilled to date in the Vicuna District and rank among the highest copper grades intersected globally in the last few years''. This district includes Filo.
Upside:
1. Last week Lundin Mining announced it's acquiring the mine and processing facility at Caserones in Chile. Lundin Mining is part of the parent group that owns NGEX, Filo and Josemaria. The acquisition builds regional infrastructure for potential synergy with NGEX projects development. Sentiment for NGEX was already strong following this acquisition.
2. Eyes were on NGEX from the above news, sentiment now will be very strong for NGEX on this 1st drill-hole result.
3. First holes are targeted on less information than subsequent holes, as more holes are drilled the picture becomes clearer of what may lie beneath.
4. NGEX market cap is a not-gigantic ~C$750m. A re-rate potential to ~C$2bn is possible.
5. If follow-up drill results confirm a large high grade zone at Potro, expect interest in NGEX from majors as per BHP buying 5% of Filo last year.
Downside:
1. NGEX has already risen in the run-up to this result on the good news around the Caserones acquisition. Traders who entered on the Caserones uplift in price will be selling this news.
2. The potro cliffs is remote, high altitude, with limited water. (same as Filo)
3. There'll be no development there for many, many years. This is a pure exploration play at this stage which if it follows the usual path will run up on future drills results, then fall as reality sinks in about the timescale and cost to develop.
I'm somewhat familiar with NGEX's projects after having traded NGEX for good profits last year, and from them them being adjacent to Filo and part of the same parent group as Filo. Imo, NGEX will likely fly on this result on the open. If subsequent holes confirm good grades and widths like this first hole there's no reason not to expect a large rerating in price as per Filo. Market opens in an hour (TSX.v). I'll be putting in a small speculative position on market open today. I accept there's a potential for a spike and drop so will be sizing position accordingly. I won't be chasing price, I'll be leaving it in for the subsequent drill results from Potro Cliffs which will follow on over spring.
Drill result announcement here: https://ngexminerals.com/site/assets/files/113451/ngex_minerals_ltd__ngex_minerals_reports_new_discovery_at_potro.pdf
Anyone who wants to nerd on the drill result can watch the live conference call with NGEX at 4pm. https://us02web.zoom.us/j/81956452033?pwd=VVAzQmpvdzZwbnphL2pNaHQzVjJkQT09
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Got in on market open with 2.5% of my pf at a price of $5.08.
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Got in on market open with 2.5% of my pf at a price of $5.08.
A nice price - it went up rapidly after.
Risk/reward on this is much improved after the first drill result. I've doubled my position to about 6% of my PF.
I should have really set out the thesis for NGEX before, I did think to but thought it was perhaps too risky for most folks until the first drill result at Potro.
The Lundins are busy laying the groundwork for the Vicuna district and the majors will be watching closely. Whilst NGEX is not so cheap for an explorer, lots of people said the same about Filo at $10 were I first bought. It's been an easy double and more from there, more if you bought on the dip. NGEX has a lot of holes to drill and if they're comparable to the first one, $5 will sound very cheap one day. Potro is perfectly positioned in the district.
Nicely done Pete and I hope others took note.
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Had a look, but got no spare cash just now and couldn't get it on HL so I passed. Good luck to those who coin it.
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Nice to see Adam Lundin bought over one million dollars (CAD) worth of shares in NGEX today. Coat per share of $5.60 and $5.63.
Good to see.
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Brilliant to see, he must read ukb! Follow the money.
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Always interesting to hear what you've been up to Kelvin, you appear to have a 'good nose' for this as they say.
Sheldon Iwentash selling his PNRL shares is a bit frustrating I agree - it will keep a lid on upside in the short-term - but anyone investing in this company has to accept this as part of the fabric. He part funded the company at a very early stage and consequently holds millions of shares at a very low price that he doesn't need to hold for the long-term to make huge profits - he's making huge profits now. He owns 6.5 million directly and another 7 million shares owned through his ThreeD Capital fund. He'll be selling-down these for a good while yet.
I'm holding for the long term on this one, as I have faith in what the EM geophysics suggests for the link-up zone at Selebi - with nickel apparently being one of the easier minerals to find with EM when there's no chance of conflating by the presence of graphite (not present at Selebi); I place a lot of weight on Warren Irwin's opinion - one of the rare straightforward more honest guys in this industry who doesn't seem to feel the need to bullshit, perhaps as he made it very big on long/shorting BreX and then Nexgen early in his career; along with two other people positive on this one; and the involvement of Boris Kamstra (Alphamin's ex ceo) gives me confidence this is the real deal in terms of an ESG-friendly, western-friendly, nickel-sulfide development in a good jurisdiction.
That said PNRL really botched a recent raising. Short term balls-up.
General market fear providing cheap entries at the moment for Filo and Afm among others.
Bit of info on PNRL from Warren Irwin. I'd listen to him on resource investing, less so on any other topic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fkZGJV1gzw
PNRL
For those who noticed Pete and myself mention this nickel junior, I thought Warren Irwin's recent comments on twitter were worth posting.
"When I bought NexGen everyone thought is was a fraud, when I bought SolGol nobody thought we had anything, when I bought Premium Nickel everyone ……. Takes time. Management definitely has screwed the financing up. What they have is extraordinary."
"I think the CEO is in way over his head for a project of this scale and significance. I am sure there will be a transition at some point as it cannot be successful under current leadership."
I'm on the sidelines as insider selling was too much for me but Pete puts forth a good argument for PNRL and one I'm willing to listen too when they finally sort themselves out.
If Warren Irwin describes the property as "extraordinary" then it well worth doing some DD to understand why.
Certainly one for the future.
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Afm also has a big chunk of me - currently around 10% of my total pf. Paying me handsomely in divi's :)
Going to bang this drum once more. Now at 12.5% of my pf, after adding more today at C$0.95 at the market open. My average cost is somewhere around C$0.60c per share but I couldn't resist adding after last night's announcement by Myanmar government that they're ending all tin mining in country by August, due to ''wanting to preserve resources for the future'' (i.e. for when prices are higher - meant but unsaid). https://www.internationaltin.org/notice-circulating-that-myanmars-wa-state-mine-operations-are-to-be-suspended/
''If'' this happens, it will be 10% of global production gone from an already over-tight tin market. In the early stages of a perhaps decade-long supply/demand squeeze for tin which is the most crucial and overlooked of all the energy/technology transition metals. Just as Alphamin are increasing their production from opening their second mine this coming December.
To give an idea of how leveraged to the price of tin this company is, today's near 10% spike in the tin price in reaction to the Myanmar news - an increase of ~$2,500 per ton from $24,500 to $27,000 on the LME - would alone represent an approx. $50m annual increase in Alphamin's earnings were the price of tin to remain unchanged. Last year's annual earnings were $222m - so a 22% overnight increase in forward earnings compared to yesterday's tin price.
This is based on 20,000 tons of annual production which Afm will be hitting early next year when the second mine opens (12.5k tons last year, Mpnana South adds 8k tons). The company has a market cap of $900m. The company was already undervalued on a price to earnings ratio of roughly 4 at yesterday's $24,500/ton tin price. Today it's more undervalued still at $27,500/ton tin, a forward price/earnings ratio of roughly 3.5. With the company paying a 7% dividend to boot. Growth, value and takeover potential all in one.
Finally, Afm is one of the few producers still making money when the tin price was in the low $20k's - its cost of production of $14k/ton being the lowest of the global tin producers. Myanmar and Indonesia typical cost of production reportedly around the mid-$20k's/ton, which is presumably why they're shutting down mining until the outlook for future tin prices does a thingy. That's my bi-annual banging of the Alphamin drum completed for the first half of 2023. :ang:
For those interested in the chart technicals aka tea leaves - see two charts below (timescales are weekly and zoomed-in daily), showing 4 or 5 signals. Bear in mind nothing drawn on the charts below was drawn recently, except the completion of the righthand shoulder of the inverse H+S. All the resistance/support levels were drawn months ago, or last year. Must be coincidence how price reacted off them. No signal is actionable by itself, the more signals that combine the stronger the evidence for price to move in the direction suggested.
- an inverse H+S pattern (bullish, suggest turnaround of trend) ;
- positive divergence on the daily MACD histogram - lower price lows but higher histogram lows (bullish, suggestive of turnaround of a downtrend),
- price reaction off a long term support line (straight blue line),
- price reaction off the 200 day moving average (blue wavy line)
- price breaking through a long-term downward-sloping resistance line - straight blue line (assuming price closes above approx $0.98c).
- the horizontal coloured bands are significant price retracement levels following the rise from Covid lows to the all-time high of April last year - you can see how price reacted when it hit the '61.8' level of C$0.63. The 61.8 level is a ratio* of pullback following a rise, not a set price, and is a very common reversal zone.
Weekly
(https://i.imgur.com/zbY8xpt.png)
Daily
(https://i.imgur.com/RupEX0N.png)
*to be precise, the different retracement levels of 23.6, 38.2 and 61.8 are the constant ratios found between different adjacent numbers in the fib sequence. As the fib sequence proceeds into infinity the ratios tighten down to these numbers. For some reason it's useful for identifying reversals in stocks too.
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Plenty going on I could mention, here are 3 that are actionable:
I opened a short-term trade in Adriatic Metals (https://www.adriaticmetals.com/downloads/corporate-presentations/2022/july-2022---roadshow-v4.pdf) @ £1.15 on recent weakness. Technically it was showing a divergence on the macd-h, had hit a significant fib retracement level, had dipped below a long-term support/resistance level (@ 1.20) and was showing oversold on the rsi. With those signals and knowing the company fundamentals well I can be fairly confident that it's probably bottomed barring any catastrophic event. I originally invested in Adriatic in early 2020 and planned to keep hold until they completed their Bosnian silver/zinc/lead mine and production in 2023. But sentiment ended up tanking in late 2021 on political instability (Bosnian Serbs threatening to break-away, with Russian backing) so I sold in late 2021 for a decent profit. It was a shame as it's a genuinely world-class project and one of the best silver/zinc projects currently on the market. Fully funded to production and with good levels of management and institutional ownership (European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, among others). There's a bit of a sentimental attachment for me - during the war in 1995 I was a fresh-faced 20-year old based not far from where their new mine's located. It's good to see a project that helps the region progress and this mine will be Bosnia's largest exporter, contributing 1.5% of the country's GDP. The ceo Paul Cronin seems to be one of the industry's good eggs and doing things the right way in terms of community engagement and environment. Overview of the project from their corporate relations guy: https://youtu.be/1o54G7-_Ero?t=9
Free cash flow starts next year, quickly ramping up to £200m+ per year, on a current market cap of £315m. So Adriatic's at a very decent entry price here. They're in the dip on the Lassonde Curve (https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-life-cycle-of-a-mineral-discovery/) with less than 12 months to production so price 'should' do well from here starting pretty much from now (there are no guarantees ofc). I have other needs for my invested money so my plan is to sell for a short-term 10% profit which, if the rebound momentum continues in silver's spot price (movement in silver tends to move Adriatic) then I expect to hit my target in the next 2 weeks. If silver goes on a rip I'll hold a bit longer but doubt I'd hold beyond autumn.
Adriatic Metals. I ended up selling that trade for a quick 10% gain. I've repurchased them for the third time earlier this year at around £1.65 - 70 for 1.5% of my portfolio.
Join the dots here. The NPV of Ruprice when it goes into production in November of this year will be close to $1bn. This valuation is based on the now out-of-date resource estimate and the DFS (definitive feasibility study) from 2 years ago.
The lassonde curve reflects the journey of a minor from exploration success, through development, into production. It reflects excitement of the discovery, increase in resource estimates, then boredom and risk of executing a development project on time and on budget while trying to secure financing. Look up Lassonde curve for an explanation.
A miner will typically be valued at 0.5-0.7 x NPV up to production, to reflect execution risk, inflation, cost overruns, technical risk, commodity price downside etc. etc.
Adriatic have executed perfectly - this release (https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ADT1/vares-project-update/16007228) from yesterday is what you rarely see with miners. They remain on track for November production, total build cost is finalised and within budget, not needing the contingency; offtake for 85% of their zinc/silver/lead is already agreed (https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ADT1/offtake-heads-of-terms-agreed/15416698) since 2022 with four major producers/traders for the first 2 years of Ruprice's life (the remaining 15% of product to be sold on the open market at spot - including gold and copper at attractive prices); estimated revenues given by the DFS/Sprott/Cannacord are based on realistic commodity prices (some now lower, some higher, but all realistic).
The narrative is about western supply chain - a western jurisdiction supplying western industry with base metals for refining within Europe (although some portion of the zinc will end up going to China for smelting, the remainder Europe - assuming energy prices don't shut down the remainder of Europe's zinc smelters... in which case China will take it all).
The upside, based on the existing resource going into production this November is from easily 50%, to up to a double from current price within the next 12-18 months, imo.
The really exciting upside however is the resource expansion from the drilling in what they've called the NW extension of Ruprice, which was announced in drill reports earlier this year. The grades within this new zone are very high. The Ruprice resource estimate will be updated next month and will include drill results up to April this year - which includes some of the high grade NW extension drilling. Drilling of the NW extension has accelerated since April's high grade discoveries and will be ongoing through the remainder of this year. Expecting a significant resource increase and life of mine extension next month, with further growth to come. Current life of mine given by the DFS is 10 years but the reality here is a tier 1 mine running for multiple decades, through an almost universally anticipated strong base metals demand cycle.
The downside is Bosnian political risk - Bosnian-Serb nationalism backed by Russia/Russian friendly actors stirring tensions.
All the information on valuation is out there - search Sprott for their note, and Cannacord Genuity for theirs - both notes will soon be out of date following the July resource update. The Adriatic website has the latest construction update, inc. videos for those that like to see the building of an underground base metals project from scratch.
In my opinion this is a screaming growth & value share at current price - on a par with Alphamin below 60c. As per Alphamin during their development, the management at Adriatic is top notch and have executed without fuss and hype. They've kept the hype almost completely below the radar by avoiding AIM and its idiotic crowd, listing instead on the main LSE and on the ASX where mining knowledge among investors is more sophisticated. To anyone who already owns, I'd not put all eggs in one basket due to Bosnia/Serbia/Russia political risk. To anyone who doesn't I think Adriatic make a great investment here.
Update on CTM in case anyone was tempted.. last night they announced a 6 months delay to the DFS (the final feasibility study required before a final investment decision to proceed to construction) for their nickel sulfide project. This on top of previous delays to the DFS. That, combined with market jitters, suggest this could go much lower back to the 70 area. Long term, it's a top quality asset that will ether get bought or JV'd within 3 years. Short term, further weakness possibly ahead. A very good opportunity for the brave with a 2-3 year view.
Various shares in my areas of interest are breaking down below long-term support lines as the financial sector fallout continues. I opened a (tiny, 0.025%) position in bitcoin miner Argo Blockchain two days ago on a combination of technical signals that suggest a turnaround. My sell target is 32p.
Credit Suisse the next over the cliff edge..?
CTM went to the 70s. Last week they announced they've renegotiated the offtake agreement they had with Vale (major base metals producer) whereby CTM have regained 100% offtake rights over their nickel: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-ctm-acquires-jaguar-offtake-rights-in-pivotal-transaction.7435504/
This is very significant news - previously CTM were somewhat hamstrung by Vale having control over a large % of the nickel from the Jaguar project. This renegotiation of the offtake agreement means CTM are now a much more attractive buy-out target prior to Jaguar going into production, alternatively this opens CTM to take Jaguar to production with financing partly coming from more attractive nickel offtake agreements than the previous Vale one, with major car manufacturers or commodity traders, thus minimising dilution of CTM in any future rounds of capex funding.
Price was cheap when it dropped to the 70s under the previous offtake terms; it's cheap under a dollar under the new terms. Short term (this year) expect nickel commodity price volatility on news of surpluses from Indonesia which will affect all nickel explorer/developer stocks - take advantage of weakness in the quality ones like CTM and PNRL. Longer term, nickel sulfide in 'friendly' jurisdictions like CTM's Brazil and PNRL's Botswana are where western industry wants to be purchasing.
All the work has been done for you if you search 'Sprott, research, CTM'. Imo, an easy double from here within 2.5 years if you can sit through potentially watching your holding suffer in a not-guaranteed recessionary market when everyone thinks the world/industry is ending. Alternatively you could try to time the maybe-bottom of the market, good luck.
That said PNRL really botched a recent raising. Short term balls-up.
PNRL have now secured financing as of last week and are funded to drill out part of Selebi. Anyone who took advantage of the weakness at $1 is laughing. I'm a holder from $2, and will be holding through the next 12 months as they begin drilling the areas shown up as conductive in the EM survey of Selebi and Selebi North. We'll soon know whether those conductive plates are nickel sulfide or something else of no economic value - I've no strong reasons to believe they aren't and many strong reasons to believe they are, based on who else is bullish about this. Could it be an elaborate pump and dump, of course, never rule that out. But the calibre of people who are pumping suggests that's much more unlikely than likely.
For the latest presentation see this from Boris Kamastra (who is former Chief Operating Officer for Alphamin, took AFM through their development into production): https://youtu.be/I9n0kqgdtfM?t=7869
TLDR by risk lower to higher:
1. ADT large upside potential, now very much de-risked as they enter the final mile to production and a 1 x NPV re-rating valuation. No currency exchange risk as they're listed on London as well as the ASX.
2. CTM advanced stage explorer/early stage developer. Regaining 100% offtake de-risks financing somewhat. The DFS is due out end of this year - once that's out the gun goes off to finalise financing and start construction, or a potential buy-out by a major. Currency risk A$ to GBP is unknowable (listed on the Australian ASX).
3. PNRL the highest risk of the three - early exploration stage (although within an existing resource so not highest risk greenfields), with the largest upside potential should those conductive plates be proven by drilling to be nickel. Currency risk if pound strengthens against C$ (unknowable).
AFM, PMET, Filo, NGEX all cruising, still long all. Filo and NGEX both due more drill results v.soon. I won't chase but I own a shit-ton of all four from much cheaper.
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A heads up on NGEX. I got in @$5.08 in April this year on the day the Potro Cliffs discovery hole was announced. NGEX will be announcing results of follow-up drill holes from Potro Cliffs within the next week or two, as well as results of drill holes at their more advanced Los Helados deposit. The Los Helados deposit is an advanced-stage undeveloped copper-gold deposit in the Andes, in the same district as Filo, and underlines much of NGEX's market cap. The Potro Cliffs discovery is potentially a Filo-esque discovery next door to the Filo discovery, and it's in the early stages. I'm very confident about Potro Cliffs, and liken current price to buying Filo at $10 in terms of potential and risk (risk is low for an explorer in S.America - among other factors, the Lundin group provides stability here).
Recent investor presso here from Stockholm (ngex is a Lundin group company - Lundin family is half-Swedish and have a strong investor base there). A 12-month timeline could see this much much higher.
https://player.vimeo.com/video/838451578
Bonus idea for anyone into higher-risk speculation (I'm not taking part).
Cornish Metals finally reported this morning on the remaining holes for United Downs. Short version - the grades and widths are not good enough to economically mine the lode they've drilled. Share price reacting accordingly. Happy now that I sold 50% around the recent high and took profits. If you were in it for a short-term win, then that day has now passed.. hope you sold near the recent high ;)
...
Cornish Metals are back on the radar. To be clear, I don't think that much of the South Crofty mine (or the company) as a long term investment. when you have Alphamin's Biese mine or MLX's Renison as the alternatives (Cornish's United Downs project was interesting but exploration drilling fell short imo). I don't believe Cornish will provide the same long-term shareholder value as AFM or MLX, because I think they'll require a lot of funding and likely dilution of long-term holders to get South Crofty to production. But they're now back at the share price they were at when I first mentioned them in 2021. It provides a way to trade the tin price on the London market if you can't buy stocks on the TSX or ASX.
Last time I made 50% (some people here made 100%) by selling into the rise. This is a second opportunity to take advantage of any upswing in tin price and market sentiment. I wouldn't hold them too long if they do well.
TBH if you believe in the tin narrative *that* strongly (I do) and aren't limited to UK shares then I'd just buy Alphamin and be done with it, enjoying your 6-10% dividends (depending what price you bought at) as share price grows over the years.
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Thanks for the heads up Pete. After a very brief skim I converted some languishing shares that didn't have much upside or dividend yield and put them into Adriatic. Up 11% so far. (small investment, don't have much spare cash ATM). Planning to hold for 12-18mo, will keep an eye on the results and maybe get some more when I have cash of all still looks rosey.
Timely article: https://renews.biz/86854/decarbonisation-may-cause-minerals-shortage-by-2030/ (no shit sherlock)
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Cool cool. Watch out for the resource update this month, should be good, although this present rise is beginning to price it in.
Zinc/lead price has suffered/is suffering a bit due to weak global demand but looking through any near-term economic downturn, the future should be v.bright for Adriatic. It also has big exposure to the craziness of the silver price, hence the spike in share price earlier this year to £2.15. Should surpass that just on production later this year, but any excitement in silver will really propel it.
The good thing about the new zones being discovered in the NW is they’re higher in copper and silver content than the current resource. Lots of upside.
Yep plenty of unbiased info out there on why the energy transition isn’t going to meet the climate goals set out by the Paris agreement, all saying more or less the same thing - there isn’t enough investment of capital or human resource into the provision of the raw materials required to make it a reality. Politicians/public seem to have their heads in the sand about what’s physically required. Something’s going to give, it isn’t going to be the physical requirements of the climate targets.
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Adriatic is one of those I've never commited to looking at properly and am then left with that feeling of 'ach, it's too late'. I hope you all do well.
Silver definitely feels like it's going to have its days in the sun at some point soon.
Well, that was a tough first half of the year. A lot of my stuff got hammered, particularly the OFS/OSD and whilst I took profits, I left a bit too much on the table. Thank goodness for NGEX and a few others.
I finished this week up 8% so far this year and I've much less cash than I'd been carrying.
The star performer recently was WA1 Resources, on the ASX.
Bought for AU$2.60 on the 9th May, I sold for 6.41 on the 15th June. It's looks like it'll be a Tier 1 deposit of Niobium, some outstanding drill results so far and a possible future battery technology that requires Niobium but I knew nothing about it, so took my gains. The market seems to be supplied currently by Brazil and I'd be guessing at what a huge new supply in Aus could do to the commodity price.
Talking of Australia, Azure Minerals AZS is shaping up to be a world class lithium deposit just a couple of kilometres from a road and good infrastructure.
Bought in at AU$1.03 on the 19 June, it's currently trading at 1.65. It had some great results recently that the market seemingly didn't respond to - I've currently got 2% of my PF invested.
I've another couple of ASX shares that are speculative but that's all they are, no recommendation. I bought a chunk of Kingfisher mining KFM at the end of June - basically following a geologist's musing that there may be something there. After doing well on Azure and WA1, I decided to roll with it. The other one, OMA, is a gas play.
Down near Filo and NGEX, literally 5-7km away, I've built a small position in Mirasol. Assay results for the Sobek project are expected in about three weeks time and there's been steady insider buying. 2% of PF.
Hugely increased my OFS/OSV/OSD position - in total it's about 25% of my PF now. Day rates are rising. VAL is my biggest position, closely followed by Tidewater. RIG, NE, BORR and KLXE make up the rest but VAL would seem to be the cheapest here.
Stuck a bit more cash into Alphamin a while back, just in time as it's now trading at CAD1.09 and MLX, well, I quadrupled my position as it's lagging awfully due to Old Peak selling off (it looks like another huge chunk of shares was sold on Friday) and at some point, with the tin price over 28k, it has to start to catch up. Only worry with MLX is a bit of daft M&A due to sitting on a large amount of cash and a slightly 'dodgy' management. If Alphamin wasn't in the Congo, all my tin money would be there.
NGEX remains my biggest position, although the last results weren't amazing and it does feel as if things are a little priced in.
Decided to take a look at Marimaca MARI, need to do some DD but that might be one for when copper is on the up - trying to keep flexible.
Sorry it's not as detailed as Pete's stuff but currently my brain is mashed by long covid.
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Adriatic Metals
I'd been doing a bit of reading since the last post and then this morning the latest news release came out - so I'm in with 2% of the PF at 166p. No currency cost but a surprise of stamp duty! I don't buy many UK listed stocks.
Thanks for the push the other week.
Also up my position in Azure by 150%, it's now around 7% of the PF.
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Not much actionable, but a great piece on mining via PDAC here: https://www.thedriftmag.com/a-good-prospect/
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Adriatic Metals
I'd been doing a bit of reading since the last post and then this morning the latest news release came out - so I'm in with 2% of the PF at 166p. No currency cost but a surprise of stamp duty! I don't buy many UK listed stocks.
Thanks for the push the other week.
Also up my position in Azure by 150%, it's now around 7% of the PF.
Congratulations on your purchase of Europe's best near-production industrial base and precious metals project. :)
MRE update still to come, due this month. Then all eyes on November for first commercial production (first ore July/August but not commercial). It's a brilliant company with lots more to come from the area.
NGEX remains my biggest position, although the last results weren't amazing and it does feel as if things are a little priced in.
The drill results from potro cliffs were good, but they came right at the end of drilling season with no more drilling ahead for a few months while the teams sit out the Andean winter. The markets love a momentum story from good news after good news. These exploration companies have a season for excitement, and a season where they've released all their drill results and they go to sleep (in terms of price) until the next season of drilling. This is when the short-term traders sell and go looking for the next thing. Time now for NGEX's price to consolidate or go into a lull, while they prepare for next season's drilling. The obvious and most likely outcome here is BHP offer to buy-out or take a % of NGEX based on the early results from potro, and Lundin Mining take a stake in Los Helados. That's on the cards and may happen in this lull before the next round of drilling. There's no doubt potro's something special, but it's an iterative process that takes many seasons. When you think that Filo sat there for 4 years with a PFS (https://filocorp.com/es/noticias/filo-mining-launches-with-initial-resource-base-of-122521/) for the open pit project before they even stuck a drill in deeper and discovered the sulphides deep underneath, the rest is history.
Long-short is that potro will very very likely be a blockbuster discovery (already is), just a matter of time and patience, and NGEX have further to rise from here based on Los Helados and potro combined value. Any weakness in price is a value opportunity.
edit: MRE not PFS
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Advice sought...
In my SIPP* I've got a range of funds. Some are going ok (Janus Henderson Sustainable Equity which is >50% of my portfolio is long term 5% up. Black rock sustainable offshore is 15% ish and 11.42% up.
On the downside I have various funds in emerging markets 22% of SIPP. They're doing shite. Some are currently 20% down. I originally went down this route as everyone was saying US Tech was overblown.
I'm considering a change in tack at some point, but, what are the pros and cons of:
1. Accepting some poor performers, sell off at a loss and reinvest in other better performing areas / low cost trackers (I currently have no low cost trackers, but think I should increase to around 30% of my SIPP in this.)
Or, 2. do some more research to find out if I'm just in the bottom of a poor cycle and should hold out for a rebound long term? (note: I have realised since getting a SIPP that I'm not the best/most interested in this type of research....)
Or, 3. Sell some of the better performing funds (2%ish) (take profits) and drop 2% on Adriatic.
Actually, those 3 are not exactly exclusive options :sorry:
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*I started my SIPP in 05/21, at the end of the "good" year, so it's been a slow market. I'm doing as well as my other pension that I've not got round to moving.
[note: I'm not seeking specific advice on those market areas / funds - that's up to me to do the research**, more about the decision making process and adjusting your plan etc.)
** but if you DO have info, feel free to share.
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The decision-making process should partly be based on this:
You didn't knowingly invest in any under-performing assets - you invested in assets you believed would perform well.
What then about your knowledge of investing has changed since then, to make you believe that now 'changing tack' will allow you to pick a better future performer? Be honest with yourself.
If your knowledge of market sectors and your expertise at picking investments hasn't changed since then, then changing into new investments now will be no more likely to result in better performance than chance. Or at least there shouldn't be any expectation of doing any better due to skill. But if you can honestly say that your knowledge/expertise has improved since then... then back yourself and what you think you know.
Macro is impossible to call correctly. The world is full of macro experts calling it wrong.
Out of curiosity what are the ongoing charges for each of your funds?
edit - also reversion to mean. Where, compared to the 12 and 36 month moving averages, are your worst-performing funds sitting compared to best performing? And what direction are those moving averages moving in (up/down/flat)? Those are the timescales to watch for long term investments.
edit edit: Position sizing is so important. Being down on some investments in a portfolio is completely normal, I think of it in terms of planting things - some grow well, some grow slowly, some struggle to grow at all and some fail completely. All on different timescales. You mention 65% of your portfolio is in fairly mainstream funds that are up, while 22% is in emerging markets funds (higher risk) that are down - I'd examine your position sizing of 22% higher risk emerging markets and ask yourself what are your goals there, and your knowledge of that sector, and your tolerance of paper losses.
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Good advice from Pete.
I'd also note that investment funds are usually designed to provide a positive return over 5 years. The modelling they do etc on risk and return factors in a buy and hold of this length. Especially something like emerging markets, I wouldn't be expecting those underlying company picks to be quickly turning into a big winner.
Good points would be what are the ongoing charges figures, how are they performing vs benchmarks? If they are not adding value vs a tracker and costing you a lot it might be worth thinking of switching out to something cheaper and better performing in the same sector, then you could ride the 5 year period since your original purchase into the sector in a better fund?
If it's a SIPP presumably you've got some time to wait it out until you need to access the money?
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Advice sought...
In my SIPP* I've got a range of funds. Some are going ok (Janus Henderson Sustainable Equity which is >50% of my portfolio is long term 5% up. Black rock sustainable offshore is 15% ish and 11.42% up.
On the downside I have various funds in emerging markets 22% of SIPP. They're doing shite. Some are currently 20% down. I originally went down this route as everyone was saying US Tech was overblown.
I'm considering a change in tack at some point, but, what are the pros and cons of:
1. Accepting some poor performers, sell off at a loss and reinvest in other better performing areas / low cost trackers (I currently have no low cost trackers, but think I should increase to around 30% of my SIPP in this.)
Or, 2. do some more research to find out if I'm just in the bottom of a poor cycle and should hold out for a rebound long term? (note: I have realised since getting a SIPP that I'm not the best/most interested in this type of research....)
Or, 3. Sell some of the better performing funds (2%ish) (take profits) and drop 2% on Adriatic.
Actually, those 3 are not exactly exclusive options :sorry:
If you decide to go down the global tracker route then you definitely should have a read of Moneyvator's article on best global trackers. They refresh the article annually. Recent version just out: https://monevator.com/best-global-tracker-funds
It's always worth reading the comments section after the articles on Moneyvator as some very knowledgeable industry professionals comment there - 'Naeclue' especially is a reliably great source of knowledge.
You mention having 'various emerging markets funds'. Kowning that a typical EM fund charges a relatively high OCF, this is likely an expensive way to operate when you consider a single mainstream All-World global tracker with an annual cost of 0.4% gives you ~8% exposure to emerging markets.
Also, having multiple mainstream funds erodes your gains. The Janus sustainable fund annual cost appears to be 0.85%.
The Blackrock sustainable energy (offshore), if it's this fund (https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/b/blackrock-sustainable-energy-a-income-inclusive/key-features), appears to be outrageously expensive - eroding any gains by 1.97% annually... Compounded over many years that adds up to a large erosion of gains and it's a high 2% hurdle every year to outperform the market.
Although that Blackrock fund has done very well over the energy crisis years when renewables are benefiting from the biggest margins. Is this sustainable (haha)? Could changes to legislation I've heard about change the margins on renewables?* Or just a return to more normal market conditions. In more normal years you're then more impacted by that 2% cost handicap.
* I know f-all, nobody gets macro correct, and this is conjecture.
** And I'm not a fund person, still don't own any (yet), so don't listen too closely to me.
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Sorry - I've no advice with regard to funds etc.
NGEX did a raise on Friday, it started out at 40 million and a few hours later was 85 million. Shares valued at 6.50 and the market liked it, finishing the day at 6.90cad. The Lundins taking everything from what I can tell, through various family funds.
Still my biggest position.
Sold Azure first thing last night, lithium futures had dropped, as had Patriot Battery Metals and there was a little noise about the land from indigenous sources. Happily out with a 27% profit, I do think it's highly likely to rise but the risk over the weekend was too much for me. It dropped 10% or so after, so I obviously wasn't the only one to think like that.
One I haven't mentioned is London listed Thor Explorations, a gold producer in Nigeria. Recent results were better than expected. The CEO owns around 20% of the company and last bought shares in June.
However they've acquired some lithium tenements in SW Nigeria and started drilling recently. Visual results in the cores and assays pending in August, they also have a second rig on site now.
Lots of things to consider from geology to logistics, and Nigeria might not be the safest place to invest currently but if the assays return positive results, further explanation can be funded by profits from the gold mine. Very early days
No recommendation obviously. Entertainment purposes only 😜
I've bought between 19-21p and 4% of my PF.
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Bonus idea for anyone into higher-risk speculation (I'm not taking part).
Cornish Metals finally reported this morning on the remaining holes for United Downs. Short version - the grades and widths are not good enough to economically mine the lode they've drilled. Share price reacting accordingly. Happy now that I sold 50% around the recent high and took profits. If you were in it for a short-term win, then that day has now passed.. hope you sold near the recent high ;)
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Cornish Metals are back on the radar. To be clear, I don't think that much of the South Crofty mine (or the company) as a long term investment. ...
I don't believe Cornish will provide the same long-term shareholder value as AFM or MLX, because I think they'll require a lot of funding and likely dilution of long-term holders to get South Crofty to production. But they're now back at the share price they were at when I first mentioned them in 2021. It provides a way to trade the tin price on the London market if you can't buy stocks on the TSX or ASX.
Last time I made 50% (some people here made 100%) by selling into the rise. This is a second opportunity to take advantage of any upswing in tin price and market sentiment. I wouldn't hold them too long if they do well.
TBH if you believe in the tin narrative *that* strongly (I do) and aren't limited to UK shares then I'd just buy Alphamin and be done with it, enjoying your 6-10% dividends (depending what price you bought at) as share price grows over the years.
Hope someone benefitted from this, Cornish +50% from this date. It's now sitting at the 200 day moving average, with resistance above. I'd be surprised if they broke higher. Not impossible if tin price had a bender in September on Myanmar worries, but a good spot to be taking profits here. To visualise: (200day solid blue, my drawn resistance lines dotted blue, circle date posted)
(https://i.imgur.com/iBw2uDD.jpg)
Zoomed out:
(https://i.imgur.com/ET6rOSm.jpg)
Adriatic Metals. I ended up selling that trade for a quick 10% gain. I've repurchased them for the third time earlier this year at around £1.65 - 70 for 1.5% of my portfolio.
Join the dots here. The NPV of Ruprice when it goes into production in November of this year will be close to $1bn. This valuation is based on the now out-of-date resource estimate and the DFS (definitive feasibility study) from 2 years ago.
In my opinion this is a screaming growth & value share at current price - on a par with Alphamin below 60c.
Adriatic have done well since, currently +23% from this date. There's much more to come for the patient investor.
Below are tea-leaves bullshittery mostly drawn earlier this year, zoomed in and zoomed out. Second circle is date posted on ukb. It shows various thingies*, which have no basis, and which shouldn't happen. I'm unsure if the second 'bull flag' is valid, will see how it plays out. If it is a valid bull flag then my target for November based on bull-flags repeating their % gains would be around 215 (horizonatal blue line). First bull flag repeated its gains - 1st circle.
Will revisit this in November to see how wrong I got it. Downside risk is bottom of the trident (diagonal colourful thingy) - very low probability versus upside (imo).
* (trident swing pattern, fib retracement levels, a few different candle patterns)
zoomed in
(https://i.imgur.com/yfgFhCp.jpg)
zoomed out
(https://i.imgur.com/DpBsI92.jpg)
Most other stuff boring through summer holidays drift, except Filo and PMET looking good value again. PMET looking especially good value for the patient, appears to being messed around with by short-term speculators, volatile, but the fundamentals of a huge tonnage high-grade asset are in place and the deposit size is only going to grow from here. It's the lithium investment I'd make if I didn't already own a large position from $7. Not a sector for the anxious investor though.
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Advice sought...
In my SIPP* I've got a range of funds. Some are going ok (Janus Henderson Sustainable Equity which is >50% of my portfolio is long term 5% up. Black rock sustainable offshore is 15% ish and 11.42% up.
On the downside I have various funds in emerging markets 22% of SIPP. They're doing shite. Some are currently 20% down. I originally went down this route as everyone was saying US Tech was overblown.
I'm considering a change in tack at some point, but, what are the pros and cons of:
1. Accepting some poor performers, sell off at a loss and reinvest in other better performing areas / low cost trackers (I currently have no low cost trackers, but think I should increase to around 30% of my SIPP in this.)
Or, 2. do some more research to find out if I'm just in the bottom of a poor cycle and should hold out for a rebound long term? (note: I have realised since getting a SIPP that I'm not the best/most interested in this type of research....)
Or, 3. Sell some of the better performing funds (2%ish) (take profits) and drop 2% on Adriatic.
Actually, those 3 are not exactly exclusive options :sorry:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*I started my SIPP in 05/21, at the end of the "good" year, so it's been a slow market. I'm doing as well as my other pension that I've not got round to moving.
[note: I'm not seeking specific advice on those market areas / funds - that's up to me to do the research**, more about the decision making process and adjusting your plan etc.)
** but if you DO have info, feel free to share.
One approach is to keep fixed ratios of a few holdings matched so as to be ok overall irrespective of how the future pans out. Doing that swerves the effort/angst of trying to constantly pick and choose etc.
I thought this website gave a handy view of that outlook https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolios/
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The drill results from potro cliffs were good, but they came right at the end of drilling season with no more drilling ahead for a few months while the teams sit out the Andean winter. The markets love a momentum story from good news after good news. These exploration companies have a season for excitement, and a season where they've released all their drill results and they go to sleep (in terms of price) until the next season of drilling. This is when the short-term traders sell and go looking for the next thing. Time now for NGEX's price to consolidate or go into a lull, while they prepare for next season's drilling. The obvious and most likely outcome here is BHP offer to buy-out or take a % of NGEX based on the early results from potro, and Lundin Mining take a stake in Los Helados. That's on the cards and may happen in this lull before the next round of drilling. There's no doubt potro's something special, but it's an iterative process that takes many seasons. When you think that Filo sat there for 4 years with a PFS (https://filocorp.com/es/noticias/filo-mining-launches-with-initial-resource-base-of-122521/) for the open pit project before they even stuck a drill in deeper and discovered the sulphides deep underneath, the rest is history.
Long-short is that potro will very very likely be a blockbuster discovery (already is), just a matter of time and patience, and NGEX have further to rise from here based on Los Helados and potro combined value. Any weakness in price is a value opportunity.
edit: MRE not PFS
Time for NGEX to start waking up post the Andean winter. That was the lull. If the world isn't burning by January I think this will be at a significantly higher market cap.
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/ngex-kicks-off-new-drill-season-at-lunahuasi-891440155.html
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The October '23 Presentation from NGex is presented so clearly, it's obvious where this thing is headed.
Well worth checking out for those who are interested.
https://ngexminerals.com/investors/presentations-and-videos/presentations/
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The October '23 Presentation from NGex is presented so clearly, it's obvious where this thing is headed.
Well worth checking out for those who are interested.
https://ngexminerals.com/investors/presentations-and-videos/presentations/
Good to see this. I got in at 6.87 and have been losing money most of the time ever since. Saw it in my head as a five-year punt tbh so haven't been too worried about it. Would be nice to see some growth in the shorter term.
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Good to see this. I got in at 6.87 and have been losing money most of the time ever since. Saw it in my head as a five-year punt tbh so haven't been too worried about it. Would be nice to see some growth in the shorter term.
I lost money on Filo for a while but eventually doubled my money. I entered just as summer started and it went down until Nov.
As Pete said, we're entering a time when there should be plenty of news catalysts in the short term.
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The October '23 Presentation from NGex is presented so clearly, it's obvious where this thing is headed.
Well worth checking out for those who are interested.
https://ngexminerals.com/investors/presentations-and-videos/presentations/
Good to see this. I got in at 6.87 and have been losing money most of the time ever since. Saw it in my head as a five-year punt tbh so haven't been too worried about it. Would be nice to see some growth in the shorter term.
The market for junior explorers on the TSX.v, London AIM and (lesser extent) ASX is a wild west, with extreme price volatility, populated by legitimate-sounding pumpers and executives who in reality are bullshitters eager to fleece you out of your money to fund their next lakeside property; operating within a framework of opaque corporate governance; where non-profitable pre-production 'exploration companies' without a legitimate economic resource remain afloat via endless capital raises - often involving share options/warrants that dilute value even further. When it falls apart the bullshitters re-emerge in new entities.
I don't mention companies within this sector on a UKB investing thread lightly. I've spent my time being burnt in this sector and learnt the hard lessons. That said there are never any guarantees, e.g. Switzerland's oldest and 2nd largest bank just went broke.
NGEX and Filo are blue-chip. NGEX's share price is underwritten by 1. Los Heldos resource value and 2. world-class discovery at Potro Cliffs (aka Lunahuasi). That doesn't mean there won't be volatility, there could be extreme volatility, especially in this current market with all that's playing out. There's a saying that volatility is your friend if you own quality companies because it works in both directions, the key is knowing quality versus crap. Over the longer term these two are blue chip assets in a growth market if you believe the demand for copper will grow over the next ten years. However if you believe the world is heading into an abyss where all major countries cease economic progress for decades to come and therefore demand for copper shrinks, then obviously these two companies with giant Andean discoveries aren't a wise investment.
For Filo the underwriting was the 5%, $80m investment by BHP at $16 per share - which was a premium to market price at the time - with no warrants. It's virtually unheard of for a junior explorer to raise capital at a premium to market price and with no warrants.
Then a further investment by BHP, along with Lundin family trusts and large institutions, in a $100m raise this year at $21.20 share price. Again no warrants, minimal dilution, raised at virtually market price. Filo is a banker. If you don't desperately need the cash you just watch and wait and ignore fearful noise, any weakness below $20 is a value opportunity. The quality and size of what Filo discovered makes it (almost) unique. At Potro Cliffs NGEX appear to have something comparable in size/quality to Filo.
For NGEX, the 2023 raise for $85m at a share price of $6.50 was a similar story to Filo's raises - oversubscribed, minimal dilution and no warrants. Lundin family trusts were the major backers, plus some institutions. Lundin insiders have also put millions of their own cash buying NGEX on market this year. It provides support to share price and validation (if you don't understand drill assay results) that the Potro is something very special indeed. The capital raised pays the costs for the next 12-18 months of drilling out the Potro discovery. The Potro story may play out along similar lines to Filo, where there will be further investment by either Lundin Mining or BHP; or perhaps the Lundins will want some competitive tension from bringing in a different suitor. Doesn't really matter who, NGEX have another giant discovery on their hands here, which they control 100%.
NGEX also have Los Helados back-stopping their share price. LH is a massive copper resource that has gone through the stages from discovery in 2006 to resource estimate and technical report in 2019. The company just announced this week that an updated technical report will be out next year - based on previous events, this suggests there's a path towards sale to Lundin Mining, who have just bought Casserones mine and processing plant next door to LH, negating the need to build expensive plant at LH.
The ore from Potro Cliffs will likely eventually end up going to Josemaria - another Lundin Mining project about to enter the construction phase.
Or.. NGEX are the masters of the spinout company - their geo team find something special, NGEX drills it out to develop understanding of what they have, they produce a technical report, and then they spin it out to form a separate commercial entity. They did this with Filo, and with Los Heldos when it was spun-out to form the separate 'NGEX Minerals'; the original NGEX subsequently changed its name to Josemaria. Josemaria was subsequently then purchased by Lundin Mining last year. So it's possible either Potro or Los Helados will be spun-out (for 2nd time in LH's case). In this scenario NGEX shareholders retain ownership of shares in the new spinco.
It's a bit of a web but one that makes sense.
This type of corporate structure would keep things clean between Argentina and Chile jurisdictions: Los Helados & Casserones (Chile), Potro Cliffs & Josemaria (Argentina).
Filo (90% located in Argentna) also benefits from Josemaria project being in its neighborhood. Although Filo is so gigantic it may end up with its own plant. Some sort of JV or toll-treatment agreement is my guess between Filo/BHP/Lundin Mining for an expansion of Josemaria's processing plant to treat future Filo ore.
All this will play out over the next few years. Josemaria scheduled to commence production 2026, construction needs to commence next year.
A more important sentiment factor in the immediate near-term for Lundin Group companies with exposure to Argentina (NGEX, Filo and Lundin Mining) is the Argentinian general election taking place this Sunday. I believe this is causing the market uncertainty around these projects. Argentina's economy and currency hugely basket-case but the country is trying to develop its resources and sits on huge future wealth. Following the election, the new Argentinian gov will need begin making commitments about fiscal policies for foreign investment. This is needed to provide long-term clarity for foreign mining companies wondering whether to invest in major projects within Argentina - it's essential that major non-Argentinian investors are reassured that long-term profits from mining projects such as Filo, Potro and Josemaria can be taken out of Argentina in dollars. No large western company will deem it worth investing to build these mines if they have to keep too much of their profits in-country in devaluing Argentinian Pesos. This is the 'fiscal stability agreement' that was talked about two years ago when Filo hit the headlines, but which has still not yet been settled. Sunday's election will be a step closer to settling this question.
A curveball downside scenario is that Argentina have received an invitation to join the loose-knit BRICS group (announced this summer at the end of the BRICS summit), if it agrees it would become a full BRICS member in 2024. Very uncertain, could go either way and Argentina is in a 'man in the middle' position. Say the government decides to join, introduces fiscal policies that make the country even less attractive for western investors but easier for Chinese belt/road, as a result Lundin group companies market-cap tank, and China comes in and buys all these major resource projects on the cheap. Bye-bye shareholder value in Filo/Potro/Josemaria (but not LH/Casserones). That's worst-case. Some sort of competitive middle-ground tension between west-east possible imo.
That's my view, helps me to clarify my thoughts by writing this.
sources:
brics invitation https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/cff/2023/08/29/odd-one-out-argentina-in-brics/
election/state of economy https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-braces-election-with-economy-intensive-care-2023-10-19/
Argentinian fiscal agreement/investment landscape https://news.metal.com/newscontent/102207849/argentina-aims-to-become-one-of-the-worlds-top-ten-copper-producers-by-2030-its-investor-friendly-stance-has-attracted-global-players-such-as-glencore-and-lundin-mining/
+
https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/bhp-reveals-interest-in-investing-in-argentina
spinout of Josemaria https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/ngex-resources-inc-announces-closing-of-the-spin-out-of-the-los-helados-property-name-change-to-josemaria-resources-inc-and-new-board-806663807.html
insider buying https://ceo.ca/@jameskwantes/sunshine-insider-buying
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Below are tea-leaves bullshittery mostly drawn earlier this year, zoomed in and zoomed out. Second circle is date posted on ukb. It shows various thingies*, which have no basis, and which shouldn't happen. I'm unsure if the second 'bull flag' is valid, will see how it plays out. If it is a valid bull flag then my target for November based on bull-flags repeating their % gains would be around 215 (horizonatal blue line). First bull flag repeated its gains - 1st circle.
Will revisit this in November to see how wrong I got it. Downside risk is bottom of the trident (diagonal colourful thingy) - very low probability versus upside (imo).
* (trident swing pattern, fib retracement levels, a few different candle patterns)
zoomed in
(https://i.imgur.com/yfgFhCp.jpg)
zoomed out
(https://i.imgur.com/DpBsI92.jpg)
The potential 'bull-flag' on the chart wasn't. It's November, and Adriatic should have started production by now and have turned into a cash cow. Except they haven't. First production has been delayed to early January due to:
1. delay by the national electricity operator connecting Adriatic's processing plant to the Bosnian national grid.
2. delay in contractor delivering some re-agents.
Not a biggie and hardly any mining projects hit the targets for first production, Adriatic were looking a bit too perfect there so no great surprise that it couldn't last. Patience an essential attribute for this sector.
All eyes now on January. Between now and then there's another update to the resource estimate, encompassing the completion of this year's drilling of the NW extension to Ruprice. This is expected to give a significant increase in resource over that used for the 2021 feasibility study. Life of mine for the 2021 study is 10 years - the resource is now heading towards a 20 years life of mine, which is yet to be priced in.
Below's my valuation, based on published earnings estimates of $220m per year over the first 5 years following January 2024 start-up (Cannacord Genuity and Sprott, company estimate is for a higher rate):
Fundamentals.
Current market cap: £486m
............
Debt: £114m
Cash: £35m
Net debt: £79m
Enterprise Value (EV): £565m
.............
Average annual EBITDA over first 5 years of production: £200m
.............
EV / EBITDA ratio: 2.8
Typical ratio for peer silver/base metals producers: 4 - 6
An alternative quick rule-of-thumb valuation is to look at the estimated NPV for Ruprice:
NPV = ~$950m (based on the 2021 study). GBP £750m.
Adriatic is currently priced @ 0.79 x NPV, a typical ratio for a developer pre-production, although now very close now to the start line.
A re-rate to 1 x NPV should be expected upon production, assuming an incident free start and ramp-up to production rates by mid-2024 as per the assumptions in the feasibility study. If it wasn't Bosnia I think the re-rate to 1x would have already begun.
This $950m NPV doesn't price in any extension to the 10 year life of mine. So nothing for the expansion of the resource in the NW extension already announced, with further NW resource expansion due to be announced in Jan. There are also areas surrounding Ruprice to the west being drilled, with some positive language used. Finally something that would blow the roof is Adriatic being granted an exploration permit for the area of land adjacent to the north-west boundary of Ruprice. The mineralisation doesn't stop at the current permit boundary.
Finally, all assumptions are for a spot price of $24/oz silver equivalent. Any upside to that is leverage to the profit margin. Adriatic's all-in sustaining cost of production is an industry leading @ $7/oz silver eq.
Technically.
Price is suggesting formation of an inverse H+S pattern, clearly seen on the weekly timeframe in chart below. Similar to the inverse H+S in July 2022.
It's dependant on the 'right shoulder' confirming by price increasing fairly soon from here. If it does, then the dotted line marked 'neckline' is the price level / timeline to watch for a breakout higher.
£2.15 still my initial target on start of production, higher than that into the meat of next year if they have a smooth start and ramp-up. Longer term I'm very bullish on Adriatic turning Ruprice into a world class 20+ year asset and developing further assets / M&A of other development assets using cash-flow from Ruprice.
Downside? It's Bosnia. Market doesn't trust that there won't be political instability. Kosovo tensions earlier this year for e.g. Also, this is the first major mining project in the region for decades, it's an untested jurisdiction. Hence ADT is currently still so cheap this close to the start line. That said, Ruprice at current estimated output will contribute 2.5% of Bosnia's GDP and the government seem very pro. Adriatic is 4% of my portfolio, I'll be increasing that to 6% on Monday.
(https://i.imgur.com/2oVKaZS.jpg)
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First production has been delayed to early January due to:
1. delay by the national electricity operator connecting Adriatic's processing plant to the Bosnian national grid.
2. delay in contractor delivering some re-agents.
Not a biggie and hardly any mining projects hit the targets for first production, Adriatic were looking a bit too perfect there so no great surprise that it couldn't last. Patience an essential attribute for this sector.
All eyes now on January.
Grid connection to the processing plant is now complete. Re-agents reported to be arriving on 23rd Dec.
Also the rail line from the railhead at Vares to Sarajevo opened last month and the first train has run.
Between now and then there's another update to the resource estimate, encompassing the completion of this year's drilling of the NW extension to Ruprice. This is expected to give a significant increase in resource over that used for the 2021 feasibility study. Life of mine for the 2021 study is 10 years - the resource is now heading towards a 20 years life of mine, which is yet to be priced in.
Reserve not resource - i.e. the ore with certainty of economic extraction.
Updated reserve estimate released this morning. Confirming an increase to 18 years life of mine (up from 10 years in the previous reserve released July 2021). Huge. Will also without any doubt grow further over the coming years. Grade is down ~10% on the previous reserve.
Along with the 89% increase in reserve tonnage, a crucial piece of information in the updated reserve estimate document is this:
High-grade ore with a BWi range of 6-7 kWh/t will be treated in the early years. Adriatic and Ausenco have used
a maximum feed rate of 130 tph in the LOM production schedule resulting in throughputs greater than 1.0 Mtpa from Year 6 to Year 10 and greater than the nominal design of 0.8 Mtpa for all years from Year 4 to Year 15.
Adriatic and Ausenco are confident that the 30% increase above the nominal throughput capacity in early years
will be achieved due to the preferential treatment of soft, high-grade ore in early years of the Vares Project, and
state that the throughput capacity – ore hardness relationship will be confirmed by modelling. AMC concurs with
this assessment.
Important, because this compares to the cash-flow estimates based on estimated output of ~750k tons per annum used in the feasibility study. Increased early years output, increased life of mine = large re-rate from current market cap.
Another resource update is due in H1 next year, encompassing drilling completed since July 2023.
Technically.
Price is suggesting formation of an inverse H+S pattern, clearly seen on the weekly timeframe in chart below. Similar to the inverse H+S in July 2022.
It's dependant on the 'right shoulder' confirming by price increasing fairly soon from here. If it does, then the dotted line marked 'neckline' is the price level / timeline to watch for a breakout higher.
(https://i.imgur.com/2oVKaZS.jpg)
Inverse H+S confirmed. The 'right shoulder' formed lower than I expected with the 2-day spike down on Tues and Weds last week (incidentally Weds was the day capital flowed into the US 'metals and miners' ETF as it broke out on FED signalling of rates softening). I'd assumed that the right shoulder had formed already, as per the chart in previous post.
See below charts on the weekly timescale (my assumed shoulder circled) and daily zoomed in. That 2 day spike down is a pretty blatant example of the market 'searching for liquidity' before a move higher - triggering people's stop-losses, people wavering and selling.
My expectation is for some resistance at the dotted 'neckline' around £1.82, then initial breakout to previous high around £2.15. I remain of the opinion that Adriatic is a strong long-term hold and deeply undervalued.
weekly
(https://i.imgur.com/YnpaJOW.jpg)
daily zoomed in on spike
(https://i.imgur.com/DS1k9MU.jpg)
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Filo on a rip ATM. @22 CAD
I rebought @ 21 CAD in august in my pension as I had cashed in some other stuff - that slumped, but I increased my stake at 17.5CAD. Overall now sitting at 12.14% gain this time around (no more 100% gains this time ;-)
Planning to sit on it for a while.
Should really reply to your reply to my previous big brain dump - just not had the time!
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Filo and NGEX will forever be no-brainer buys imo any time they dip to $20 or $6.50 respectively. We're now back into Andes drilling reporting season (since Nov) so can expect sp movement in anticipation. NGEX - much anticipation currently being priced in on next Potro (Lunahuasi if you must) drill results - due early Jan.
For both NGEX and Filo I expect some sort of corporate M&A or spin-out news next year (likely involving Lundin Mining, or perhaps a.n.other).
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My expectation is for some resistance at the dotted 'neckline' around £1.82, then initial breakout to previous high around £2.15. I remain of the opinion that Adriatic is a strong long-term hold and deeply undervalued.
weekly
(https://i.imgur.com/YnpaJOW.jpg)
daily zoomed in on spike
(https://i.imgur.com/DS1k9MU.jpg)
Da-da...
That's the short-term target hit.
(https://i.imgur.com/2ZVafr7.jpg)
Price hung around for all of 1 day at the resistance line. Then gapped up through that neckline yesterday. It's all tealeaves bollocks.
Trading volume last week was joint highest since company listed. One day last week was highest daily volume since listing.
As production begins and ramps up this will v.likely continue to re-rate over the course of 2024, to somewhere in the low £3's is my best estimate right now (based on valuation and chart), so around 50% upside from here. That's barring calamities which could still happen either in-mine, or in-country, or globally (so don't bet the farm). My EBITDA ratio valuation in a previous post guides the way. I think it's conservative, and doesn't factor the updated reserve released last week, nor the Serbian asset to be announced next year, nor a possible permit extension to the north-west of Ruprice, nor the proposed increase in mill output to 1mtpa (from 750ktpa). I won't be buying any more as I filled up at £1.60-£1.75 for 6% of my pf. I usually don't chase things once they start to re-rate.
Don't know what shape the price will take next, whether steady re-rate or unsustainable rocket ships. It might pull-back from this level or go on a bender, xmas trading can be weird in thin volume.
The diagonal shaded area on the chart (a 'trident' based on some significant swing highs and swing lows which marked the low point of the 'orphan period' of a Lassonde curve during the mine development phase) will stop being valid at some point but has been a useful structure to date. Price reacted off it high and low (circled).
I'll probably stop blathering on about ADT1 soon as there's good opportunities coming up in other companies in my pf - Alphamin one that's soon likely about to take a similar re-rate journey as it begins production from Mpana South in Feb.
Weekly views:
(https://i.imgur.com/ymeRLDm.jpg)
(https://i.imgur.com/Hbdw1ND.jpg)
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That's a nice uptick (although slightly bittersweet in that I had been mucking and aahing about buying some more in the recent dip).
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It's always hard to tell when to do it. I thought I'd missed up in the summer on Filo but it's come good in the long game.
Not got much in Adriatic, so I'll just sit on that for a while (tempting to take the 30% gains, but I'm not no need of cash right now)
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That's a nice uptick (although slightly bittersweet in that I had been mucking and aahing about buying some more in the recent dip).
You might get a pullback opportunity following a significant rapid rise like that. Price is now 'overbought' on daily timescale 'rsi' indicator. So could be due a stall or fall back a bit.
Common levels for a pull-back entry can be estimated if you overlay a fibonacci retracement* scale over the entirety of the recent move - from the low at £1.47 to today's high at £2.14.
Then look at what the share price corresponds to at the levels 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786. Those numbers are the % of retracement of the prior move, and they're often levels at which price bounces. Whether this is for any fundamental reason or whether it's due to tea-leavery creating its own feedback loop in the market is impossible to say, and doesn't really matter as long as you understand that.
(The 0.5 isn't a fibonacci number, just a 50% retracement of the move).
It's very common for price to pull back to the 0.23 or 0.382 levels, deeper pullbacks to the 50%, 0.618 or .786. Knowing for sure which level it'll bounce off is impossible but the levels are useful for putting price action in context, and can be used in combination with other indicators showing when price is over-sold or momentum turning (the RSI and MACD indicators), as well as combining with knowledge of upcoming catalyst events/knowledge of the company.
I've put an example of the fib retracement levels below, for Adriatic's recent move up. Will be able to see if it bounces off any of those levels (if it doesn't keep motoring).
Another common price behaviour following breakout through a resistance level is for price to retest the resistance level from above, and bounce off it as support. In this case that's the 'neckline'. But would be a v.deep pullback.
A final common behaviour following a strong rapid rise is to form a 'bull flag' pattern. (see Adriatic in Oct-Nov 2022). If ADT's price were to goes sideways from here but hold the level of today's close, then it may be continuation pattern and if it confirms (by breakout of sideways range) you can estimate a repeat rise in %-terms of the previous rise. Usually within 2 weeks or it peters out into sideways ranging.
I don't recommend chasing spikes up, until either a bull-flag has formed and then confirmed by breaking out, or if price falls back to a fib level in combo with having good knowledge about the company's prospects. Just buying a sharp rise in the hopes it continues means the risk/reward ratio has probably just changed to a much less favorable ratio. Price is likely to pull back at some point, if it doesn't (and you don't see/act on a breakout of a bull-flag) consider it an opportunity missed. Will always be others.
(https://i.imgur.com/T58Jn5g.jpg)
* nerd point, the retracement % levels of .236, .382, .618, .786 etc. correspond to the ratio of a number to the next number (or 2nd-next, 3rd-next etc.) in the fibonacci sequence: 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144, into infinity.
The same place that the 'golden ratio' in nature (of .618 or 1.618) comes from.
89/144 = 0.618
55/144 = 0.382
35/144 = 0.236
The ratios start off not that, but as the sequence increases the ratio tightens up.
(.786 level = square root of 618, dunno why it matters)
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp#:~:text=However%2C%20Fibonacci%20did%20not%20create,between%20450%20and%20200%20BCE.
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Various shares in my areas of interest are breaking down below long-term support lines as the financial sector fallout continues. I opened a (tiny, 0.025%) position in bitcoin miner Argo Blockchain two days ago on a combination of technical signals that suggest a turnaround. My sell target is 32p.
Pete just a note - I looked into Argo at the time you mentioned this and bought in at 14p. Small investment but made 100% return, sold out the other week at 28p. It was a bumpy ride but good outcome in the end - hope you got a good return from this also.
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Nice one :thumbsup: :strongbench:
I'd only entered it as a days to weeks time-frame speculation on the direction of BTC, and hadn't meant it as a 6 month trade so well done for hanging on through the trough. I sold 2 weeks after entering, for a 20% loss. Only 20% of a 0.025% position so a 0.05% loss to my book!
You'll be pleased with NGEX no doubt. Plenty more to come still.
Adriatic start production tomorrow. Big day. They really do fly under the radar. I'm expecting that to change this year if they achieve ramp-up to the production level stated in the feasibility study.
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Saw an article about mineral prices tanking? Oversupply? Seemed to be more about lithium etc. Filo and Adriatic don't seem too bothered by it.
Let's see what happens tomorrow.
My LONGLONGLOOONG term Etherium HODL is slowly creeping back up towards breakeven :lol:
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Nickel and lithium have tanked over the last 12 months (palladium too, I've zero interest in palladium).
Copper/gold/silver are doing well (Filo/Ngex are copper/gold/silver deposits)
Nickel is a very interesting one, which I think we'll maybe start to hear about years from now as a pollution disaster.
Indonesia, with Chinese funding and technical support, recently cracked how to produce class 1 nickel from nickel laterite using a method known as high pressure acid leaching. This had not been possible until very recently despite some other companies trying unsuccessfully over many years.
Consequently Indonesian nickel has been swamping the global market over last 12 months, hence the price drop. But their method is very heavily polluting (and also benefits from cheap coal-powered electricity generation). The issue is the waste produced and how to store it safely, compared to the other ways of producing nickel. We're all using Indonesian nickel in our cheap batteries and in our cheap stainless steel, manufactured with coal power, and the western nickel producers are pissed off that the metals markets which the car-makers and steel manufactures operate within gives no green premium for 'clean' nickel.
It's relative, still a big hole in the ground but class 1 nickel from an Australian or Brazilian nickel sulfide deposit is way less polluting than Indonesian nickel using HPAL, from a nickel laterite deposit. Does anyone in the west care enough to demand metal markets put a price premium on the dirty nickel? We'll find out.. By then much of the western nickel production may have closed down because it's too high on the cost curve - as has just happened at Wyloo's Australian nickel operations which shut don this week. https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/forrest-shuts-wa-mines-as-nickel-dominoes-tumble-20240121-p5eyvo
Australian miners are frustrated with the LME’s refusal to create a “green” category within its class 1 nickel pricing structure, and identify the potential for rival exchanges to seize on this and the LME’s own historic nickel woes.
The Forrest camp is hopeful UK-based Global Commodities Holdings will emerge as an LME challenger, as well as Singapore-based ABAXX and the CME Group, the world’s biggest derivatives exchange.
“The LME is awash with pollutive nickel, which is squeezing out clean nickel from Australian producers,” Wyloo chief executive Luca Giacovazzi said on Sunday.
I'd encourage anyone interested in a basic overview of clean versus dirty nickel to have a read of the above article (bearing in mind its a biased (but correct afaik) view by an Australian company in an Australian business paper)
A more technical explainer here from woodmac on how Indonesia has cracked using high pressure acid leaching to produce nickel: https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/rise-of-indonesian-hpal/
This might be like cobalt, which will work it's way through the public consciousness over years until eventually the average member of the public one day will associate nickel with 'bad things' as they do cobalt, because they read something in the daily mail or heard something on R4. By which time we'll be a very long way down the road (literally in our EV's), and Indonesia will have fucked it's coastal environment.
It does make me roll my eyes/laugh/weep that average public in the west have no care to be a little bit more curious about what lies behind the affordability of their cars/machines/buildings/consumables. No western car company is going to rock the boat unless one (or better multiple) governments demand it, and no government is going to rock the boat unless large swathes of the public demand it. Willful ignorance.
Centuras Metals (Brazialian nickel sulfide development project, powered by hydro-generated power) are a steal at current price, tanking due to the nickel price sentiment. I'm not invested as I sold for a big gain above $1.
I am invested in Premium Nickel but that's a different play, all about potential discovery of a huge underground deposit beneath historic mine workings i.e. an exploration play but with lots of juice due to the infrastructure already being in place from the historic mine (quick/easy buyout, low development cost relative to asset). Assuming their drilling confirms what looks like a huge nickel/copper/cobalt deposit beneath the historic workings, and I obviously think it will.
Lithium I haven't bothered following the reasoning, it'll come back. Cyclical markets doing what they do.
* btw you can easily track LME spot and 3-month futures for ferrous and non-ferrous metals here: https://www.lme.com/en/Metals/Non-ferrous
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Lithium I haven't bothered following the reasoning, it'll come back. Cyclical markets doing what they do.
* btw you can easily track LME spot and 3-month futures for ferrous and non-ferrous metals here: https://www.lme.com/en/Metals/Non-ferrous
Evolving lithium contracting strategies, overzealous destocking, absence of a robust futures or hedging market with a strong dose of market manipulation in China. But also exactly what you said as well!
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Thanks for posting Pete, be really interesting to see how this plays out. Seems like for the EV market where generally people are looking to be environmentally aware, the green credentials of the raw materials should be easy to bring into play.
Is there any currently any market differentiation in oil or other raw products between production with high ESG production vs ‘dirtier’ producers?
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Thanks for posting Pete, be really interesting to see how this plays out. Seems like for the EV market where generally people are looking to be environmentally aware, the green credentials of the raw materials should be easy to bring into play.
Is there any currently any market differentiation in oil or other raw products between production with high ESG production vs ‘dirtier’ producers?
Most of the differentiation tends to happen around periods of ‘high concern’, natural disasters and political commitments to engage in green policy etc. Then you get a premium on ‘green’ stocks. Not sure how persistent that is
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Thanks for posting Pete, be really interesting to see how this plays out. Seems like for the EV market where generally people are looking to be environmentally aware, the green credentials of the raw materials should be easy to bring into play.
Long answer which would involve a rant, so I'll desist. Short version: Just, no! In an ideal world, yes. But that isn't how people are incentivised to purchase products in the real world, and it isn't how the world works. Unfortunately.
Is there any currently any market differentiation in oil or other raw products between production with high ESG production vs ‘dirtier’ producers?
Trade in tungsten, tin, tantalum and gold is regulated by conflict metals regulations which 'only' came in 2012 (came into frce in 2021 in the EU). See here (US): https://www.sec.gov/opa/Article/2012-2012-163htm---related-materials.html
And here (EU): https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/development-and-sustainability/conflict-minerals-regulation/regulation-explained_en
So it's possible (but definitely not easy!)
Not for oil. But again there should be. In a world where we were all rational beings, interested in emissions more than feeling good and optics to our peers.
Carbon intensity of a megajoule of oil across all oil-producing nations. Mathematical challenge: in a world of continued oil demand 'x' (i.e. reality), solve for how to most efficiently reduce emissions of co2 equiv while keeping oil at output 'y'.
(tldr, don't slash production from the nations at high production levels with lower-intensity carbon emissions)
Country grams of CO2eq/MJ Co-product displacement 5%ile error bar 95%ile error bar grams of CO2eq/MJ Allocation by energy Number of fields
Syria 29.8 25.1 45.5 29.8 30
Democratic Republic of Congo 29.2 21.4 39.2 29.2 13
Uzbekistan 27.4 20.1 39.0 26.4 35
Yemen 26.9 21.4 37.8 23.7 25
Albania 23.7 13.3 39.7 22.7 6
Algeria 20.3 17.7 30.3 20.1 93
Venezuela 20.3 15.0 31.9 19.9 251
Myanmar 20.2 14.4 49.4 19.0 15
Cameroon 18.4 15.0 26.7 18.1 48
Canada 17.6 15.6 22.3 17.7 84
Iran 17.1 14.0 23.1 17.4 79
Turkmenistan 15.9 12.3 22.8 16.8 24
Tunisia 15.4 13.7 25.2 15.3 52
Indonesia 15.3 12.0 82.5 15.1 482
Georgia 15.2 10.5 23.5 15.0 11
Sudan 14.9 11.1 22.2 14.8 40
Mauritania 14.8 12.3 20.3 14.8 1
Trinidad and Tobago 14.3 9.9 27.0 14.4 63
Iraq 14.1 13.1 18.5 14.0 46
Gabon 13.2 11.2 20.6 13.1 69
Malaysia 12.9 10.5 19.4 12.8 79
Nigeria 12.6 11.3 16.6 12.4 207
Pakistan 12.2 11.2 23.0 12.0 63
Ukraine 11.8 10.4 24.0 11.9 127
Oman 11.7 10.4 20.2 11.7 138
Philippines 11.6 6.4 16.1 11.5 3
Niger 11.3 8.3 17.1 11.5 3
United States 11.3 9.1 17.3 11.3 824
Chile 11.2 10.0 24.0 11.2 15
Libya 11.0 8.7 19.4 11.2 34
Peru 10.9 7.1 25.8 11.1 50
Republic of Congo 10.6 7.6 15.4 10.6 42
Egypt 10.6 8.7 17.7 10.6 351
Brazil 10.3 7.3 13.2 10.5 267
Chad 10.2 8.1 17.2 10.2 13
Mexico 9.9 6.9 11.2 9.9 204
Guatemala 9.8 6.8 16.2 9.8 7
Lithuania 9.7 8.0 23.1 9.8 15
Russian Federation 9.7 8.5 17.0 9.7 1688
Kazakhstan 9.7 8.2 16.8 9.7 190
Kyrgyzstan 9.4 7.1 35.8 9.5 10
Tajikistan 9.4 6.7 17.5 9.5 11
Morocco 9.3 7.8 19.4 9.5 2
Ecuador 9.3 7.2 16.7 9.5 123
Barbados 9.3 8.2 20.5 9.5 5
Argentina 9.1 6.8 20.2 9.4 232
Australia 9.1 8.0 16.2 9.4 202
Cuba 9.0 7.5 17.9 9.2 18
Bolivia 9.0 4.9 17.6 9.2 4
Latvia 8.9 7.8 16.8 9.2 1
Vietnam 8.8 7.5 12.9 9.2 33
Belize 8.8 8.1 18.6 9.0 1
Bulgaria 8.6 7.4 25.5 9.0 10
India 8.6 7.0 16.0 8.9 179
Papua New Guinea 8.5 7.8 17.7 8.9 8
Turkey 8.4 6.7 16.7 8.9 117
Colombia 8.3 5.9 15.9 8.8 364
Afghanistan 8.3 6.9 16.6 8.7 2
Suriname 8.2 6.4 14.6 8.5 3
Poland 8.2 6.9 19.3 8.5 44
New Zealand 8.2 4.5 12.6 8.4 15
United Kingdom 7.9 7.4 10.7 8.3 182
Hungary 7.9 6.7 19.8 8.3 62
Croatia 7.8 6.8 17.6 8.3 38
Germany 7.7 5.7 15.3 8.2 51
Japan 7.7 6.2 21.2 8.2 15
Serbia 7.7 6.5 19.2 8.2 30
Austria 7.6 5.9 21.3 8.0 38
France 7.5 5.3 17.3 7.8 63
Angola 7.5 6.6 14.1 7.8 78
Romania 7.4 6.3 21.6 7.7 210
United Arab Emirates 7.1 5.7 14.9 7.5 27
China 7.0 5.6 14.0 7.2 619
Kuwait 6.9 5.9 13.9 7.1 18
Qatar 6.5 6.0 10.8 7.0 12
Equatorial Guinea 6.4 4.5 9.4 6.8 13
Jordan 6.3 5.8 14.7 6.8 1
Azerbaijan 6.3 4.9 9.4 6.8 44
Cote d'Ivoire 6.1 5.8 9.1 6.7 3
Italy 6.1 5.5 13.9 6.7 22
Greece 5.9 5.4 10.4 6.6 2
Brunei 5.7 3.7 12.5 6.4 18
Norway 5.6 4.8 10.8 6.4 120
Ghana 5.2 4.4 7.4 6.0 2
Thailand 5.1 3.8 11.4 5.9 56
Bahrain 5.0 4.8 10.1 5.3 1
Saudi Arabia 4.6 4.4 6.6 5.1 33
Spain 4.1 3.7 11.4 5.0 6
Netherlands 3.9 3.4 9.7 4.9 16
Denmark 3.3 3.1 7.0 4.9 15
* from: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aar6859
Comment here: https://news.stanford.edu/2018/08/30/measuring-crude-oils-carbon-footprint/
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Thanks Pete, some interesting data, I guess the ‘S’ of ESG has to be a factor too.
Interested in you expending your thoughts on the below, but understand if you don’t want to. We have a drive for ethical consumption in food and clothing for example, so if a western car manufacturer could use their ‘cleaner’ raw materials to differentiate their £40k EV from the £20k ones about to come out of china, it seems like you could sway some people?
Long answer which would involve a rant, so I'll desist. Short version: Just, no! In an ideal world, yes. But that isn't how people are incentivised to purchase products in the real world, and it isn't how the world works. Unfortunately.
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Nickel and lithium have tanked over the last 12 months (palladium too, I've zero interest in palladium).
Copper/gold/silver are doing well (Filo/Ngex are copper/gold/silver deposits)
Nickel is a very interesting one, which I think we'll maybe start to hear about years from now as a pollution disaster.
Indonesia, with Chinese funding and technical support, recently cracked how to produce class 1 nickel from nickel laterite using a method known as high pressure acid leaching. This had not been possible until very recently despite some other companies trying unsuccessfully over many years.
Consequently Indonesian nickel has been swamping the global market over last 12 months, hence the price drop. But their method is very heavily polluting (and also benefits from cheap coal-powered electricity generation). The issue is the waste produced and how to store it safely, compared to the other ways of producing nickel. We're all using Indonesian nickel in our cheap batteries and in our cheap stainless steel, manufactured with coal power, and the western nickel producers are pissed off that the metals markets which the car-makers and steel manufactures operate within gives no green premium for 'clean' nickel.
It's relative, still a big hole in the ground but class 1 nickel from an Australian or Brazilian nickel sulfide deposit is way less polluting than Indonesian nickel using HPAL, from a nickel laterite deposit. Does anyone in the west care enough to demand metal markets put a price premium on the dirty nickel? We'll find out.. By then much of the western nickel production may have closed down because it's too high on the cost curve - as has just happened at Wyloo's Australian nickel operations which shut don this week. https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/forrest-shuts-wa-mines-as-nickel-dominoes-tumble-20240121-p5eyvo
Australian miners are frustrated with the LME’s refusal to create a “green” category within its class 1 nickel pricing structure, and identify the potential for rival exchanges to seize on this and the LME’s own historic nickel woes.
The Forrest camp is hopeful UK-based Global Commodities Holdings will emerge as an LME challenger, as well as Singapore-based ABAXX and the CME Group, the world’s biggest derivatives exchange.
“The LME is awash with pollutive nickel, which is squeezing out clean nickel from Australian producers,” Wyloo chief executive Luca Giacovazzi said on Sunday.
I'd encourage anyone interested in a basic overview of clean versus dirty nickel to have a read of the above article (bearing in mind its a biased (but correct afaik) view by an Australian company in an Australian business paper)
A more technical explainer here from woodmac on how Indonesia has cracked using high pressure acid leaching to produce nickel: https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/rise-of-indonesian-hpal/
This might be like cobalt, which will work it's way through the public consciousness over years until eventually the average member of the public one day will associate nickel with 'bad things' as they do cobalt, because they read something in the daily mail or heard something on R4. By which time we'll be a very long way down the road (literally in our EV's), and Indonesia will have fucked it's coastal environment.
It does make me roll my eyes/laugh/weep that average public in the west have no care to be a little bit more curious about what lies behind the affordability of their cars/machines/buildings/consumables. No western car company is going to rock the boat unless one (or better multiple) governments demand it, and no government is going to rock the boat unless large swathes of the public demand it. Willful ignorance.
Centuras Metals (Brazialian nickel sulfide development project, powered by hydro-generated power) are a steal at current price, tanking due to the nickel price sentiment. I'm not invested as I sold for a big gain above $1.
I am invested in Premium Nickel but that's a different play, all about potential discovery of a huge underground deposit beneath historic mine workings i.e. an exploration play but with lots of juice due to the infrastructure already being in place from the historic mine (quick/easy buyout, low development cost relative to asset). Assuming their drilling confirms what looks like a huge nickel/copper/cobalt deposit beneath the historic workings, and I obviously think it will.
Lithium I haven't bothered following the reasoning, it'll come back. Cyclical markets doing what they do.
* btw you can easily track LME spot and 3-month futures for ferrous and non-ferrous metals here: https://www.lme.com/en/Metals/Non-ferrous
Following on from the above, good piece today in the FT about concerns. https://www.ft.com/content/dd9434b4-04e5-474d-85ff-7149f89efd19?shareType=nongift
This is essentially the bigger picture that has been developing for various commodities since a few years pre-Ukraine - pressure on the west via control of commodities. I think the west is concerned enough now about western nickel miners and development projects hitting the wall that a premium for more sustainable nickel (than Indonesia's) has legs. If it happens, watch companies like CTM and PNRL fly. (PNRL will anyway imo, as the questions are gradually getting answered about what lies under the old Selebi mine workings).
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Pete, any thoughts on Aluminium Ion batteries?
Looked at this some more. An Australian company called Graphene Manufacturing Group listed on the Toronto exchange released news last week about their graphene aluminium-ion battery cells.. If they can scale this up it'd be very interesting. I've taken a small position, missed the recent big rise.
Overview: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltaylor/2021/05/13/ev-range-breakthrough-as-new-aluminum-ion-battery-charges-60-times-faster-than-lithium-ion/?sh=1b401886d287
Interview and next steps to market: http://www.kereport.com/2021/05/14/gmg-graphene-manufacturing-group-recent-graphene-aluminum-ion-battery-performance-data-and-the-next-steps-to-get-the-batteries-into-the-market/
Video released today on 'cleanerwatt': https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZp7BQnDPfE
Links to more detailed information can be found on the CEO.ca GMG board.. if you wade through the 'face-ripping' posts there are some links to good info.
Some exciting developments have been ongoing in the background for a few of my long term holds.
GMG,
Invested 5% of my pf in this between May - Nov 2021, have been sitting on this at a 70% loss since, as they progress their 2 main products through development stages towards commercialisation.
They've just reached commercialisation, and very soon first revenue, for their graphene air-con coating applied to heat exchangers/air con units. Roll-out in progress this month in the US. Awaiting final US EPA decision but looks a shoe-in (famous last words). Candian EPA equiv has been granted.
This propduct gives significant heat transfer gains (i.e. lower power useage - I might look into getting a trial pack to spray the heat exchanger if I get an air-source heat pump...).
This gives them revenue while they progress the really exciting product - the graphene aluminium-ion battery. The pouch pack battery just reach 1000mAh as announced today. Repeatability and pouch cell production plant this year are the next steps. Followed by customer trials end-year into next year. I was initially dubious about GMG as their claims seemed too good to be true, but as time passed I became more willing to see this one through due to the management credentials (ex Shell natural gas senior management); track record of passing each development milestone pretty much in accordance with guidance; apparent superiority of the battery over lithium-ion for applications requiring high power density - diesel mining vehicles for e.g.; patent protection/moat around the technology (graphene produced by their method of cracking natural gas to extract the pure carbon, perforating this carbon at nano-scale with aluminium); attracting senior management from CATL; and collaborations with Rio Tinto, Wood Group and Bosch.
Worth a look for anyone interested in the new battery technologies coming through. The revenue from their graphene air-con coating is a bonus but they'll likely still need to raise capital to build the pouch cell production plant. Or get bought out (my assumption). Good price here, way better risk/reward than my entries.
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/gmgs-graphene-aluminium-ion-battery-1000-mah-capacity
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgFOsM0uncg
Alphamin.
I've held a large position in AFM since 2021, bought at between 0.45c - 0.60c. It currently makes up around 20% of my pf. Sold a bit to pay towards my house, but holding the rest. I've already received around 20% of my initial investment back in divi's, plus 50% capital growth. Dividend for this spring is on hold as they allocated the capital to build the second mine (Mpana Sotuh).
They've now virtually completed the construction and commissioning of the second mine and processing facility at Biese. There isn't long to go until, if this is going to be successful, it really starts to motor again following a year-long wallowing around under a C$1. March start up, rapid ramp-up has been guided by management. The value for this company is barnstorming, see calcs below for free cash flow and EPS at different tin prices (not my work). If you can stomach the DRC risk then you will not find a better dividend+growth share on the market afaik.
(https://i.imgur.com/By86snh.png)
PNRL
It's moving now. Anyone following this knows the potential. The story is a huge area of conductive plates from downhole EM surveys suggesting a huge volume of nickel sulfides beneath existing infrastructure of the Selebi mine in Botswana (a low risk mining jurisdiction). Drill results are beginning to prove up the theory, a lot of drill holes still to be released over next 12-18 months. Next 2 holes are hotly anticipated based on the visuals (beware that visuals alone never a great reason to invest). I hold PNRL since Aug 2022 for 2.5% of my pf. My average is C$2 so still sitting on a loss here. I categorise it as a Filo/NGEX-scale opportunity at current price. Not same certainty as those two but each new hole answers more questions. Interesting twist is the US government getting directly involved with supporting PNRL in background, if you dyor. I think the wider nickel market imploding due to Indonesia is irrelevant here for the time-being - it's a high growth discovery story not a development value story. Will become relevant in time, if nothing changes in the nickel market.
Risk higher-lower (imo):
GMG
PNRL
AFM
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I have some money in an HL ISA at the moment which is just sat there. I’ve already opened a cash ISA this year so can’t just transfer it to another.
Are there any low-risk investments which you can invest in via an S&S ISA? Fixed rate bonds etc? Or bigger companies paying a dividend which would be seen as fairly stable?
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I have some money in an HL ISA at the moment which is just sat there. I’ve already opened a cash ISA this year so can’t just transfer it to another.
Are there any low-risk investments which you can invest in via an S&S ISA? Fixed rate bonds etc? Or bigger companies paying a dividend which would be seen as fairly stable?
I think it is worth giving this site a look https://portfoliocharts.com/
Yes you can both hold bonds and dividend paying stocks in a S&S ISA but it takes a small selection of holdings (as explained in the link) to get to something fairly stable in real terms.
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If the cash in your Hargreaves Lansdowne S&S ISA is from previous years ISA subscription then you can normally transfer it to your current cash ISA - check their T&C's but most allow it. I've done exactly this with some cash that was in my ii S&S ISA.
Current rates in cash ISA's aren't terrible, they're probably the best place for cash if you want low risk. You could fix at 5% for a year or 4.6% for 2 years. Hard to better that with any 'low risk' investment. https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/best-cash-isa/
If you want to keep your cash in your H&L ISA then a low-risk option for short-term cash is a money market fund. Look at the Royal London short term money market fund. It returned around 5% last 12 months. I've also used this fund for short-term cash holdings within my ii ISA. It tracks the overnight rate for interbank lending, so closely linked to interest rates.
Royal London money market fund: https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/r/royal-london-short-term-money-market-class-y-accumulation
Longer term, if low risk performance is your goal then I'd steer well clear of any investment funds suggested in that portfolio charts site, you'll lose money in fund costs once you start using multiple funds.. Not worth it for low risk 'cash-like' performance, but possibly a good shout for a long-term 'put it in and forget about it' if you choose 1 index tracker fund. If you want to do that just find the absolute cheapest global index tracker - you can get away with paying less than 0.2% in annual charges. This has all you need to know on index trackers: https://monevator.com/best-global-tracker-funds/
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I have some money in an HL ISA at the moment which is just sat there. I’ve already opened a cash ISA this year so can’t just transfer it to another.
You can transfer money held in an existing ISA (cash or S&S) to another ISA (also cash or S&S) whenever you want, including to the cash ISA you opened this year or any other account (including opening a new one). It's not new money being credited to the account so won't affect your overall ISA sub limit.
RE your second question; the question to ask yourself first is what is your time horizon, i.e. what is that money for / when do you expect to want to use it?
As a for instance, if you have a very long time horizon (say 10 years plus), putting it into a low risk and therefore likely low return investment (or cash) will ultimately lose you money to inflation, especially at the moment.
If you think you're going to need it in the next 5 years, and you have a low tolerance to risk (i.e. if it went down in value and you then needed to access it and this caused you significant problems), well there are lots of cash savings options ATM which are near zero risk.
Edit: Pete beat me to it but I'd written it so posted anyway
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Thanks for the responses.
Unfortunately I can’t transfer the funds into my Halifax Cash ISA for some reason - it wasn’t clear exactly why on the phone with them, something about fund windows being closed. I’ve also used up my allowance for the year so can’t withdraw and put it elsewhere.
The Royal London money market fund looks like it could be good. Is it essentially paying a daily interest rate linked to the BoE rate?
I guess this is something that could be exited at any point?
It is for a relatively short term (maybe 18 months) until we may use it to pay off some of our mortgage depending on how rates are looking when we come to renew next year. At the moment it is just sat there being eroded by inflation, so anything “safe” is better than nothing at the moment.
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I think your person on the phone is probably wrong. You can transfer your old ISA cash to the Halifax ISA.
A money market fund is a fund that invests in short term (under a year) very liquid generally ‘safe’ assets like short term gov bonds. It’s almost as low risk as cash but a better return. You’d purchase units (just like buying shares) and the return you’d receive is generated via the price of the fund’s units increasing.
You can access your cash whenever you like by selling the units. So a more accessible way of generating a decent low-risk return than fixing in a savings account.
Sounds like you’re on the margin of the timescale where I’d consider fixing a 12-month interest rate in a cash-ISA savings account, thereby guaranteeing yourself just over 5% for 12 months.
The money market fund will return roughly around whatever the BoE interest rate averages out at over the next twelve months. Could be less than 5% if rates do begin to drop, could be more if inflation reignites and rates remain elevated.
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I think your person on the phone is probably wrong. You can transfer your old ISA cash to the Halifax ISA.
A money market fund is a fund that invests in short term (under a year) very liquid generally ‘safe’ assets like short term gov bonds. It’s almost as low risk as cash but a better return. You’d purchase units (just like buying shares) and the return you’d receive is generated via the price of the fund’s units increasing.
Sounds like you’re on the margin of the timescale where I’d consider fixing a 12-month interest rate in a cash-ISA savings account, thereby guaranteeing yourself just over 5% for 12 months.
The money market fund will return roughly around whatever the BoE interest rate averages out at over the next twelve months. Could be less than 5% if rates do begin to drop, could be more if inflation reignites and rates remain elevated.
I will try calling Halifax back and see what they say later on then, thanks. That ISA only has 5 months left of a 12 month fix at 5.5%, but I figured putting it in there would get me a decent chunk of interest before looking for a new deal in July on the combined amounts when it closes.
I think that as I opened this fixed rate one in late July, I wouldn’t be able to open another until April? Otherwise I would do as you say and get another 12m fix.
If Halifax for whatever reason won’t transfer it, then I will go for the money market fund. It seems an easy option for now. Even when rates start dropping it would be better to get a few months of growth at the current levels.
I’m guessing with the money market fund, if it were to give say 5% in the next 12 months, I could still withdraw it anytime before then and just take whatever growth it had seen up until that point?
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Riiight.. if your existing cash isa is a 12-month fixed rate (I didn’t know this) then it will likely will have had an initial funding window of x-weeks when you first opened the account. Once that window is passed you can’t add any more funds. That’s maybe what your person is talking about. So yeah if that’s the case you wouldn’t now be able to put any more cash into it.
Yes you can withdraw from a money market fund whenever you want. It’s just like selling a share whenever you want.
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Riiight.. if your existing cash isa is a 12-month fixed rate (I didn’t know this) then it will likely will have had an initial funding window of x-weeks when you first opened the account. Once that window is passed you can’t add any more funds. That’s maybe what your person is talking about. So yeah if that’s the case you wouldn’t now be able to put any more cash into it.
Yes that'll be it. A fix is a fix so whilst the interest rate doesn't change, often with these the balance won't either.
However, that doesn't mean you can't open another cash ISA somewhere else. Again, if you have prior year ISA subscriptions sat somewhere you can move them wherever you want without affecting this year's headroom (and provided as above the receiving account accepts transfers).
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Cheers Pete/Nick, I appreciate the advice. I hadn’t realised that would make a difference - I’m a bit clueless when it comes to savings, I’ve always just had money in accounts making basically nothing. Decided it is about time to sort something out and start earning a bit from it!
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Here's a fun opportunity for space nerds to indulge in some wall-street bets type degeneracy.. today the lunar lander 'Odysseus' carries out some engine burn tests prior to commencing entry into lunar orbit, and an attempt tomorrow at the first lunar landing by the US since 1972 . News: https://www.space.com/intuitive-machines-moon-lander-engine-burns-on-track
The lunar lander was built by a public-listed company called Intuitive Machines - ticker 'LUNR' :)
Their the share price is currently also moon-bound on the excitement surrounding this event. Talk about event-driven investing!
Chart below, up ~400% since the mission launched last week. Today it's up another 25% pre-market. Market opens 2.30pm UK.
You can watch the landing live on NASA's youtube tomorrow afternoon, here: https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-artemis-science-first-intuitive-machines-flight-head-to-moon/
So here's a chance to do some online gambling and place a bet on a horse lunar landing. This is not a recommendation! Sell on a successful landing (sell the news). The price has just closed the 'gap' I circled in yellow, I'd expect it to hit one of the two levels in red I've lined up around $22 or $40. I'd then expect price to plunge back to earth quicker than the lunar module! If landing is unsuccessful, well you lose at a guess 70-90%. But who knows, it could be one of those max-stupid event driven things that captures the public sentiment just right.
(https://i.imgur.com/mtv3ZrT.jpg)
edit: btw if the normal LUNR share is too boring for you, you can buy the warrants (LUNRW) for increased rocket fuel, +ve120% yesterday versus a sedentary +ve50% for the normal share :)
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Scheduled to softly touch down (or smash into pieces) on the moon at 10.30pm UK time: https://twitter.com/nasa/status/1760483302807368171?s=46&t=6d-8pE1NdoFl1h5W80yCwA
Sneakily 90mins after the Nasdaq closes.. expect it'll be a volatile last hour.
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Don't know if anyone's watching the live feed.. It's pretty amazing. I hadn't grasped the scale of the US's plans to use commercial delivery (rather than NASA delivery) of payloads to the moon for a miniscule cost compared to previous missions; prior to sending humans there in 2026 - it's suggested to stay to begin building a base. Tonight's is the first commercial payload of many to lay down the resources ready for when humans arrive 2 years from now. Lots of talk on the live feed of 'the lunar economy' and the commercial-NASA joint enterprise.
Pretty amazing to watch something as historic as this live on my laptop. Bigger than a live stream of Burden of Dreams... I'm getting the impression this has makings of an inflection point for markets similar to how AI put a rocket up the market last year and continues to. Feels the magnitude of the project about to commence to resource the moon over the next 2 years has flown under the radar a bit.
On Intuitive Machines - I saw a Bloomberg terminal view with estimate of $400m in revenue within the next 4 years. 10x earnings giving a $4bn valuation as reasonable ballpark. Currently valued around $1bn (this wildly fluctuating by the hour!). They're contracted by NASA to deliver further payloads, a $118m contract.
Live feed here, landing 11.25pm: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dg2ffigGcYM
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Dramatic but successful landing!
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Don't know if anyone's watching the live feed.. It's pretty amazing. I hadn't grasped the scale of the US's plans to use commercial delivery (rather than NASA delivery) of payloads to the moon for a miniscule cost compared to previous missions; prior to sending humans there in 2026 - it's suggested to stay to begin building a base. Tonight's is the first commercial payload of many to lay down the resources ready for when humans arrive 2 years from now. Lots of talk on the live feed of 'the lunar economy' and the commercial-NASA joint enterprise.
Pretty amazing to watch something as historic as this live on my laptop. Bigger than a live stream of Burden of Dreams... I'm getting the impression this has makings of an inflection point for markets similar to how AI put a rocket up the market last year and continues to. Feels the magnitude of the project about to commence to resource the moon over the next 2 years has flown under the radar a bit.
On Intuitive Machines - I saw a Bloomberg terminal view with estimate of $400m in revenue within the next 4 years. 10x earnings giving a $4bn valuation as reasonable ballpark. Currently valued around $1bn (this wildly fluctuating by the hour!). They're contracted by NASA to deliver further payloads, a $118m contract.
Live feed here, landing 11.25pm: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dg2ffigGcYM
Glassdoor reviews also show a great work culture and helps the CEO is the ex director of JSC meaning they’re receiving lots of contracts from NASA and have great links to them. Funnily enough the landing lasers failed and the instrumentation sent up by NASA was used to assist in the landing
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Dramatic but successful landing!
Yeah I hadn't planned to be watching footage at 11.30pm last night but it was amazing and did feel really historic.
Interested to see what the share price does today...
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when humans arrive 2 years from now.
this will not happen in 2 or even 3 years
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Yeah I hadn't planned to be watching footage at 11.30pm last night but it was amazing and did feel really historic.
Interested to see what the share price does today...
Pre-market up around 45% for the shares, 65% for the warrants. To just above the last high. I wouldn't be surprised to see that sell off on open as early profit-takers jump ship. I think it could possibly be a longer burner now though, lot of excitement around this, I think it captures the imagination in a positive way and reminds people progress and exploration is still ongoing, away from all the negative stuff playing out. In the short term due to the weak signal it's left people hanging a bit - if the images and data still haven't transmited by the time market opens.. a lot of people waiting for the first images/data, I think if/when they come through it'll be another +ve price catalyst.
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Yeah I hadn't planned to be watching footage at 11.30pm last night but it was amazing and did feel really historic.
Interested to see what the share price does today...
Pre-market up around 45% for the shares, 65% for the warrants. To just above the last high. I wouldn't be surprised to see that sell off on open as early profit-takers jump ship. I think it could possibly be a longer burner now though, lot of excitement around this, I think it captures the imagination in a positive way and reminds people progress and exploration is still ongoing, away from all the negative stuff playing out. In the short term due to the weak signal it's left people hanging a bit - if the images and data still haven't transmited by the time market opens.. a lot of people waiting for the first images/data, I think if/when they come through it'll be another +ve price catalyst.
Kind saddens me a bit this... Just when we need to have all the best minds and all investment (human energy, real energy) focussing on fixing our clear and present danger to stable humanity and ecological balance, they're all off being fucking space invaders, trying to win the next unbounded resource arms race.
I listend to Bezos on the Lex Fridman podcast. Interesting guy, insightful in how to run dynamic organisations and....IMO...totally wrong. Summary: "yeah, we've fucked earth and run out of ways to exploit things so LET's go to SPACE where we can exploit even more..."
He actually said (paraphrased) "human progress has correlated with energy use, so we should not be trying to reduce energy use, but expand it, as that will lead to more better goodness" :blink: :wall: :furious: :shrug: :slap:
Doooooomed, we're fucking doooooomeed. So let's go to space and start again. :2thumbsup:
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Yeah I hadn't planned to be watching footage at 11.30pm last night but it was amazing and did feel really historic.
Interested to see what the share price does today...
Pre-market up around 45% for the shares, 65% for the warrants. To just above the last high. I wouldn't be surprised to see that sell off on open as early profit-takers jump ship. I think it could possibly be a longer burner now though, lot of excitement around this, I think it captures the imagination in a positive way and reminds people progress and exploration is still ongoing, away from all the negative stuff playing out. In the short term due to the weak signal it's left people hanging a bit - if the images and data still haven't transmited by the time market opens.. a lot of people waiting for the first images/data, I think if/when they come through it'll be another +ve price catalyst.
Kind saddens me a bit this... Just when we need to have all the best minds and all investment (human energy, real energy) focussing on fixing our clear and present danger to stable humanity and ecological balance, they're all off being fucking space invaders, trying to win the next unbounded resource arms race.
I listend to Bezos on the Lex Fridman podcast. Interesting guy, insightful in how to run dynamic organisations and....IMO...totally wrong. Summary: "yeah, we've fucked earth and run out of ways to exploit things so LET's go to SPACE where we can exploit even more..."
He actually said (paraphrased) "human progress has correlated with energy use, so we should not be trying to reduce energy use, but expand it, as that will lead to more better goodness" :blink: :wall: :furious: :shrug: :slap:
Doooooomed, we're fucking doooooomeed. So let's go to space and start again. :2thumbsup:
Loads more FAs to be done in space anyways
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He actually said (paraphrased) "human progress has correlated with energy use, so we should not be trying to reduce energy use, but expand it, as that will lead to more better goodness"
Well, this statement isn't actually wrong is it?
If we take "progress" to mean the dramatic improvement in living standards which can be observed worldwide, this absolutely is correlated with energy usage, and in many ways you can identify direct causation.
Also, to my extremely simple mind the amount of energy used isn't really a problem it's the source and by products that can be issues. As a for instance, if in the future we were able to obtain all of our energy from wind, why would we want to reduce consumption of it?
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True that the correlation isn't wrong, but I'd be forking off into a massive essay if I were to start picking apart the reasons why it's not necessarily causative, and, whether or not the metrics of what we even define as "progress" are vaguely sensible....
Suffice to say, I think he's full of shit.
Re: the second point. If we were starting at more of an equilibrium then, and energy was truly renewable, abundant and cheap then yes, I suppose, have at it.
However, when we in a massive arms race against AI / big data development / global economic expansion, then even renewable resources are *massively* constrained, yet the likes of amazon etc. are gobbling up all the new solar in wind capacity with corporate power purchase agreements, this just pulls it away from other, more difficult to mitigate energy consumers.
Then there's the mineral resource required to produce the wind farms, cables, batteries, solar farms etc. None of these things are infinite...
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The prerequisite for these type of discussions about energy use and living standards should be following reading some of this guy's writings: https://vaclavsmil.com/
Here's one his books, available on Bezo's site: https://www.amazon.co.uk/How-World-Really-Works-Scientists-ebook/dp/B08SGC3TD3
I'll follow my own advice.
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Here's one his books, available on Bezo's site: https://www.amazon.co.uk/How-World-Really-Works-Scientists-ebook/dp/B08SGC3TD3
An outstanding book. Reads a lot like his swansong (Smil is 80).
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I'm ignorant about Vaclav Smil. Thanks for the links.
One thing that stands out for me in the energy-supply=affluence cause-versus-effect debate is the example of Paraguay. They were/are a fairly undeveloped country. They built a vast hydro scheme and so became blessed with vast amounts of very cheap electricity. It didn't lead to much economic development, certainly not transformative development. In the end they built a huge (and hugely expensive) transmission line to export electricity to Brazil.
My general take is that what is needed for national affluence is for a society to have trust and respect across every citizen and institution. That will prevail over any geographic or historical blessing or adversity. Without it, anywhere can go to poverty and violence. With enough of it, anywhere can become the envy of the rest of the world.
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Hope you sold before they realised it fell over Pete.
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I didn't buy!
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Here's the UKB for lunar landers, lots of geek details about the antennae: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=59696.660
Sounds like many of the antenna are pointing down into the lunar surface. And still no pics.. if there were going to be any I'm guessing they'd have shown them by now.
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"On Friday, Intuitive Machines had disclosed that the laser range finders – designed to feed altitude and forward-velocity readings to Odysseus’ autonomous navigation system – were inoperable because company engineers neglected to unlock the lasers’ safety switch before launch on 15 February. The safety lock, akin to a firearm’s safety switch, can only be disabled by hand.
The range-finder glitch, detected just hours before the final descent, forced flight controllers to improvise an experimental work-around to avoid what could have been a catastrophic crash-landing."
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Should’ve used a check list :lol:
I love how we can be smart enough to create autonomous machines that land on the moon but then fuck it up with the most basic human error! Somewhere an AI is rolling its eyes at human ineptitude.
Bit smaller scale than a moon landing, but I once almost crashed a plane into some trees by forgetting to follow a check list (forgot to switch off a (power-reducing) carb-heat).
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https://atulgawande.com/book/the-checklist-manifesto/
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In other 'to the moon' news, I hope you all held onto a little crypto. Trying not to sell to early this time, but interested in any opinions on timing the top...
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I rarely trade in crypto, a few short-term trades in and out over the last 5 years. When I do, I trade shares of crypto miners as a proxy for btc as it means gains can be tax free in my isa.
Traders in crypto and forex are heavily into TA signals, as there is so much sentiment involved and a lack of strong underlying fundamentals.
I follow northstar/badchart's content, among a few other TA folk. It's difficult talking about TA without people thinking you're using it as your sole guiding light to make decisions, or that you believe using TA gives a high probability of success without needing to understand anything else about the fundamentals of companies/markets/macro - I don't believe this.
For me it's about creating an overall context and trying to understand probabilities as well as possible, rather than only following my own TA or any other TA's calls.
I don't place a lot of weight on northstar's specific calls - some are complete garbage revealing his total lack of understanding of a sector/company - e.g. last week he claimed that based on his view of the technical chart, Barrick - a $25 billion company - was at risk of going to zero because they were near to breaking a 'key' technical support line. This is such an utterly stupid claim that it's almost unbelievable how successful many of his other calls have been. He openly says he knows nothing about the companies and their valuations/fundamentals and events/catalysts, he's purely a technical trader. Technical traders claim, some almost religiously, that the chart is a proxy for all known information about an asset. I disagree - the market is inefficient, and there are time lags, and other distortions, but it's a long essay of little intertest here.
Anyway that long rant is a pre-amable to saying, according to northstar, btc is likely heading to the previous high at $68-69k. This level will be a resistance level. If it breaks the $69k level, then he estimates the top to be around $120k. Timscale is suggested on his site.
He also said the same as this 18 months ago, so do with it what you will - if you claim something enough you'll probably eventually be proven 'correct'. If you want to pay £8 you can see his work in pretty pictures which look very convincing but I'm entirely unconvinced. He's basically making money from his site, and doing some trading with it, if he was that convinced about his skill he'd be making more than enough money from his calls without needing to create a subscriber base.
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Can see the relation of btc's price to its 200 day moving average here, it's getting stretched.
But there's enough room on other indicators - one being the weekly timescale rsi (not shown) - for btc to break the previous high before pulling back. Doesn't mean it will, just that based on the level of the weekly rsi the previous time btc hit $68k, there's still room to go higher.
(https://i.imgur.com/RStoHlH.jpg)
Here's the bigger picture, with my TA.
1.BTC formed an arc pattern at previous high. Then fell to last's year's lows.
2. Where it formed an inverse head/shoulders - the three little 'arcs', first highlight being the neckline of the left shoulder.
3. It broke the downtrend - within the second large highlight blob you can see it broke up through the 200 day moving average, broke the diagonal downtrend, hit horizontal resistance (the neckline of the inverse head/shoulders), bounced again off the downtrend line and 200 day - this time as support versus previous resistance, formed the right shoulder.
4. Then broke the horizontal resistance (neckline), bounced twice again (2 righthand highlights) off the horizontal support (previous resistance) and the 200 day, and moved higher.
All easy to see after the event but not convincing enough to place a trade in advance, knowing nothing else about fundamentals (as there are so few with btc!).
(https://i.imgur.com/EtMo0D7.jpg)
edit: one other piece of useful info gleaned from northstar - there has been a pre-halving rally the previous two halvings. This is likely self-fulfilling behaviour, regardless of any fundamental value of the halving. The next halving is sometime around April this year.
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Thanks Pete. Trading purely on TA brings to mind the old line about rationality. I've been following Northstar on twitter for a while and he hasn't tempted me to subscribe yet - I had the same conclusion about why he'd bother with subscriptions.
Looking at previous peaks I think I can afford to wait 'til after any peak rather than trying to get out ahead. I got in on your final highlighted bounce, so currently well-placed, but mostly in Eth and Sol, less in Btc.
edit: one other piece of useful info gleaned from northstar - there has been a pre-halving rally the previous two halvings. This is likely self-fulfilling behaviour, regardless of any fundamental value of the halving. The next halving is sometime around April this year.
Yeah, aware of that. I think there's a way to go, but like you say there's a lot of sentiment.
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In other 'to the moon' news, I hope you all held onto a little crypto. Trying not to sell to early this time, but interested in any opinions on timing the top...
I've long since given up trying to make sense of the movement. While the going's good, I just sell a slither every now and then and try not to think about it too much.
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However, when we in a massive arms race against AI / big data development / global economic expansion, then even renewable resources are *massively* constrained, yet the likes of amazon etc. are gobbling up all the new solar in wind capacity with corporate power purchase agreements, this just pulls it away from other, more difficult to mitigate energy consumers.
Then there's the mineral resource required to produce the wind farms, cables, batteries, solar farms etc. None of these things are infinite...
To circle back around to this point (as energy/materials demand is one of the foundations of my investment thesis). As can be seen by current mania in Nvidia and other AI-related tech leading the US markets to all time highs there's a lot of excitement around the roll-out of AI - shades of dot-com bubble exuberance perhaps but wtf knows. What is known, is it (AI, energy transition, IoT, transport, yada yada) all requires the build of lots of physical infrastructure including energy-intensive data centres, and the means to supply them with reliable electricity. Good article from 'Datacentre' trade magazine, giving overview of global energy demand as it relates to data centres required for the progression of AI.
Quote:
As AI and other new technologies continue to be in high demand worldwide, the data centres that facilitate this growth will double their electricity consumption in just two years.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast what energy demand could look like between 2024 and 2026. It has revealed that, whilst global electricity demand rose considerably in 2023, it is set to grow at a much faster pace in the next two years.
Considering the impact on data centre sectors, industry leaders will need to consider how to keep pace with continued rising demand for AI, by boosting capacity in a way that is economically viable and sustainable.
Global electricity demand continues rising in line with AI
With AI expected to consume as much electricity as a medium-sized country, the technology could pose severe challenges to data centres, as they battle to meet growing customer needs.
Global demand for electricity grew 2.2% in 2023, according to the IEA, with countries such as The People’s Republic of China and India experiencing transformative digital growth. Over the next three years (2024-2026), the need for electricity is set to grow by an annual average of 3.4%, which the IEA puts down to economic outlooks improving in both advanced and emerging economies.
Particularly in locations like China, electricity demand will be supported by the ongoing electrification of residential and transport sectors, as well as notable expansions of the data centre sector. China has already seen huge growth in its data centre capabilities, having recently launched its first underwater data centre in order to deploy innovative cooling solutions and increase overall energy efficiencies.
The country’s data centre market is also expected to reach revenue heights of US$69bn by the end of 2023, in addition to a market volume of US$86bn by 2027, demonstrating continued data centre demand around the world.
Also experiencing mass demand for data centre electricity is the Republic of Ireland, with the nation’s data centre electricity having risen by 400%. Figures in 2023 suggested that this was due to multinational companies such as Facebook, Google and Microsoft having built data centres in the country, with more expected in the future.
https://datacentremagazine.com/data-centres/ai-boom-will-cause-data-centre-electricity-demand-to-double
This, before you start to consider more everyday activities like... heating, lighting, transport, food production and manufacturing tangible goods.
Add on the energy demand for other essential activities such as mining BTC so degenerates can yolo.. What a messed up civilisation :lol:
It's part of the reason a very large % of my long-term pf is in tin, copper and other base metals producers and royalties (AFM, Filo, Ngex, Ecora, Altius, Adriatic). Tin essential to the semi-conductors and electronics increasingly in everything, tin supply deeply constrained. Copper essential to the electricity generation/distribution infrastructure to power it all, long-term the consensus outlook for copper supply is it's been underdeveloped.
With some old world energy stuff - coal and oil/gas (WHC and TXP) - which isn't going away any time soon while nations work out affordable and reliable energy baseload (likely nuclear imo) and steel production. I completely missed the Uranium boat, may consider getting in if it ever pulls back deeply. SMR's being increasingly talked about as means to provide baseload power required for expansion of AI's data centre infrastructure.
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Update on a couple of things..
Adriatic. Holders will be pleased to see the Vares processing plant finally, after delays since November, successfully commenced operations 2 weeks ago. If production ramps as planned to 800k tons per year by Q4 then I'd expect price to gradually re-rate over this year, past my initial £2.15 target to between £2.50 - £3. Upside to this is if they exceed 800ktpa as suggested they want to in last year's reserve update; if silver price does something wild; if/when Adriatic announce results/resource update for their Serbian asset 'Raska' (suggested by management to be this year); plus satellite discoveries from ongoing drilling around Ruprice. Long term a good entry is anything below £2 imo.
Alphamin. Annual financial report out last week. All you need to know about what lies ahead is in their MD+A. If you enjoy this sort of thing then have a read (https://www.alphaminresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/MDA_2023_FINAL.pdf) and you can decipher without too much difficulty what the future brings, starting pretty much now. Can't emphasise strongly enough how good of a cash cow this company is, and is going to be for the next 10+yrs. It still flies somewhat under the radar due to location.
- Expect to hear an announcement by end of this month that the processing plant for their second mine Mpana south has commenced processing.
- Then first tin concentrate sales from Mpana South beginning in April. This will increase production from 12m tons to 20m tons of tin concentrate per year.
- Reading between the lines of the production forecast figures for 2024 they're guiding for a rapid ramp-up to full capacity during the April quarter (interesting to compare with Adriatic's guidance of gradual ramp-up to full capacity by Q4 this year).
- Capex is all paid, the mine/plant are built - they spent ~$120m of capex on construction of Mpana south last financial year.
- Weather conditions in DRC during Q4 last year resulted in roads impassable so tin sales down by 30% for that quarter, and sales of tin down 11% for the year as a result.
- The last 12 months average price of tin sold was 15% lower than the 2022's post-covid highs - ~$25,000 versus ~$30,000.
- They paid a huge DRC income tax bill for the stellar post-covid years of squeezed prices. they also forward-paid further DRC income taxes for financial year 2024. Meaning, this year their tax bill (on much higher profits) is going to be a $30m versus $130m in taxes paid for 2023.
Despite all this going on, they still generated handsome annual profit after taxes of $47m, and paid out $57m in dividends (from cash of $109m). Costs of production were flat year on year despite inflation.
A year of 'boring' development and high cash outflows is over and they're positioned to now reap the rewards. Notice that despite all the expense and setbacks in the last year, share price rarely dipped below 80c - the market knows this is positioned for strong growth.
I had impressive divi returns from AFM (bought at 48c) during the 2021-23 post-covid commodity squeeze. This year I'm expecting they announce perhaps a smallish (or no) divi in April during the AGM. Then from the second half of the year I expect a decade+ of sustained high profits and cash distributed to shareholders as a handsome dividend yield in the high single to low double %, relative to current share price. With sp growth back to the previous highs of mid $1's. This is from the production of 20k tons per year @ $25,000+ per ton tin, with all-in costs of production $15,000 per ton. If the tin market does what some expect and moves to an annual average above $25k then it just adds more cherries on top.
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Nice movement so far this week in your picks Pete :)
The tin price is steadily grinding higher and taking Alphamin and MLX's share price with it. Mark Thompson is back on the twitter scene throwing huge targets around again, this time however, it's for copper.
Adriatic is up something like 4% already today but it's happily bouncing back from the recent buying opportunity.
Copper? It went nuts yesterday but all of Robert Friedland's banging on the table seems to have come to fruition - $4 now and probably more to come by year end.
Lots has been said about Filo and NGEX but I've been doing rather well with ERO, a producer rather than an explorer. Up over 30% since December and hopeful of more to come. I'll try and do a write up of it but sadly it won't be as comprehensive as Pete's are. It's now 10% of my PF, so not a small position.
American Eagle has been the other success story of late, another porphory story being uncovered by the drill. I recently doubled my position in this.
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Update on a couple of things..
Adriatic. Holders will be pleased to see the Vares processing plant finally, after delays since November, successfully commenced operations 2 weeks ago. If production ramps as planned to 800k tons per year by Q4 then I'd expect price to gradually re-rate over this year, past my initial £2.15 target to between £2.50 - £3. Upside to this is if they exceed 800ktpa as suggested they want to in last year's reserve update; if silver price does something wild; if/when Adriatic announce results/resource update for their Serbian asset 'Raska' (suggested by management to be this year); plus satellite discoveries from ongoing drilling around Ruprice. Long term a good entry is anything below £2 imo.
Alphamin. Annual financial report out last week. All you need to know about what lies ahead is in their MD+A. If you enjoy this sort of thing then have a read (https://www.alphaminresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/MDA_2023_FINAL.pdf) and you can decipher without too much difficulty what the future brings, starting pretty much now. Can't emphasise strongly enough how good of a cash cow this company is, and is going to be for the next 10+yrs. It still flies somewhat under the radar due to location.
- Expect to hear an announcement by end of this month that the processing plant for their second mine Mpana south has commenced processing.
- Then first tin concentrate sales from Mpana South beginning in April. This will increase production from 12m tons to 20m tons of tin concentrate per year.
- Reading between the lines of the production forecast figures for 2024 they're guiding for a rapid ramp-up to full capacity during the April quarter (interesting to compare with Adriatic's guidance of gradual ramp-up to full capacity by Q4 this year).
- Capex is all paid, the mine/plant are built - they spent ~$120m of capex on construction of Mpana south last financial year.
- Weather conditions in DRC during Q4 last year resulted in roads impassable so tin sales down by 30% for that quarter, and sales of tin down 11% for the year as a result.
- The last 12 months average price of tin sold was 15% lower than the 2022's post-covid highs - ~$25,000 versus ~$30,000.
- They paid a huge DRC income tax bill for the stellar post-covid years of squeezed prices. they also forward-paid further DRC income taxes for financial year 2024. Meaning, this year their tax bill (on much higher profits) is going to be a $30m versus $130m in taxes paid for 2023.
Despite all this going on, they still generated handsome annual profit after taxes of $47m, and paid out $57m in dividends (from cash of $109m). Costs of production were flat year on year despite inflation.
A year of 'boring' development and high cash outflows is over and they're positioned to now reap the rewards. Notice that despite all the expense and setbacks in the last year, share price rarely dipped below 80c - the market knows this is positioned for strong growth.
I had impressive divi returns from AFM (bought at 48c) during the 2021-23 post-covid commodity squeeze. This year I'm expecting they announce perhaps a smallish (or no) divi in April during the AGM. Then from the second half of the year I expect a decade+ of sustained high profits and cash distributed to shareholders as a handsome dividend yield in the high single to low double %, relative to current share price. With sp growth back to the previous highs of mid $1's. This is from the production of 20k tons per year @ $25,000+ per ton tin, with all-in costs of production $15,000 per ton. If the tin market does what some expect and moves to an annual average above $25k then it just adds more cherries on top.
Alphamin, Adriatic and Ngex breaking out. I hope people are still holding and benefitting. Many other commods stocks showing strength.
Adriatic are still in the starting blocks of the re-rate towards 1xNPV, following commencing production last month. Expect somewhere in the low £3's by end of year if the reported 2024 Q3 production figure ends up in line with guidance. The current silver price ($28/oz) is providing a strong tailwind (but risks creating short-term parabolic exuberance). But even at $24-25 silver Adriatic is a world-leading low cost producer with huge free cash flows ahead of them - any processing ramp-up quibbles that come out in the wash between now and end of year notwithstanding. I'm in ADT for the long term* - my entry was £1.65-75 and I could take the gains here and be happy, but this is a company worth sticking with as there aren't that many come that come along with this conjunction of circumstances/timing/good management/good asset. There'll be increases in the resource size for Vares, hopefully new discoveries at on or two of the satellite deposits, a resource update for the promising Raska deposit in Serbia, and longer term the company want to acquire other European development assets using cash flow from Vares. The tailwinds are behind them at an unusual time in history to be opening Europe's first major silver/zinc/lead/copper/gold mine in a long time. ADT is a blatant growth story.
Alphamin same. Tin price is ripping and Alphamin's Mpana South mine is coming on line this month right as tin price moons to $30k/ton on tight supply/demand. Expecting a sp of $1.40-50 where it'll hit resistance. May get silly if tin price continues to squeeze, but I'd prefer if tin held steady at $30k/ton now. My valuation in a previous post shows where free cash flow is headed at $25k tin. There are some nice short term gains to be had for those who bought earlier this year or last autumn and want to exit in the low $1s to escape the DRC chaos potential. But I'm in this for the long term* - the annual dividend return for me over the next 10-15 years from my 45-55c entry with a large chunk of my pf will be worth an annual salary alone, whatever the share price does.
Ngex is getting drawn closer to $10 like it's a magnet. No idea what happens beyond that. It can't break $20 as the market cap would be too high for exploration phase. Ngex won't be producing anytime soon - this is a 'first peak of the lassonde curve' situation. If you've experienced that sort of stock before you'll know that it's fantastic while it lasts, but it won't last forever and the reality of boring years of development, fund raising and permitting will set in at some point - my advice is pick your exit wisely and be grateful for the gains, don't be a sad long term holder rueing the opportunity cost (looking at you, long-term GGP holders). I'll likely exit some or all if it gets to $10, my entry was $5.08 and that's good enough for me.
(*Filo is a bit different despite still being an explorer the same as Ngex. For too many reasons to go into now but the main one being it's a once in a generation scale - like a Grasberg in the Andes. Ngex likely not of this scale but would be happy to be proved wrong).
I won't be chasing anything here - not just the three above, anything. Market is exuberant. The time to buy commods was the last few years and I nailed it - many of them mentioned on this thread.
* 'long-term' = I keep the right the change my mind at any time - this year the US election is the biggest factor in my thinking, whilst watching for the yield curve to *eventually* uninvert, along with the rest of the market trying to time a temporary partial exit from stocks..
(https://i.imgur.com/yUFvGTi.jpg)