[duncan]

My old home constituency of Weston super Mare has given Tory nonentities (Ian Orr-Ewing, John Erskin, David Webster, Jerry Wiggin, John Penrose? Nor me...) massive majorities for a century. The only exception being 1997 when it went Liberal Democrat with a lot of tactical voting.

For the first time ever it has elected a Labour MP. Weston has changed somewhat in the last 25 years or so, now more a Bristol dormitory than a seaside resort and Labour had replaced the Lib Dems as second party, but this still surprised me. The Conservative vote went 2/3 to Labour and 1/3 to Remain.

My 90 year old mum is very pleased. She has voted Liberal most of her life, mainly tactically, somewhat by inclination, but cared enough to walk the mile or so to her polling station to vote Labour. I've told her to get a postal vote next time!

[Will Hunt]

What TomTom and others have said about it being more a condemnation of the Tories than a ringing endorsement of centre left politics. Although it's great to see the Tories defeated and to be hopeful for the next 5 years, I'm already thinking we'll lose the next one. People have short memories, though it remains to be seen how the Conservatives will

At least in Shipley we've painted the town red and for the first time in almost 20 years we need not be embarrassed any more by our MP. We have a good, hard-working public servant to represent us. Here, Labour got a smidge more votes than Conservatives and Reform combined on a not-too-reduced turnout of 65% (down 7.7% on 2019), so a much more positive result than nationally.

Also, my impression of the local party is not that hard-left members were rooted out and expelled but that they either got bored and drifted away, changed their minds, or else accepted the change as an acceptable compromise 

[andy popp]

Just saw this analysis on X (from a Dane, so presumably applying Danish rules)

"Election 2024
With proportional representation, a 2% cut off limit, setting tactical voting aside the 650 mandates would be distributed this way.
Lab  237
Con 166
Ref    99
Lib     85
Gre   46
SNP  17
Every percentage point giving 7,02 seats
Now these parties would have to talk"

Obviously, setting aside tactical voting is a major caveat but there's no way to account for it. But allowing for that, the really important part here is "Now these parties would have to talk." That is the nub with PR. It requires a very different mindset, from voters and - especially - politicians. In reality there is obvious scope here for a robust centre/centre-left coalition of Lab-Lib-Gre and no real path to one from the right.

[spidermonkey09]

This is a really good piece on the challenges facing the Conservatives now. huge decision on who to elect as their leader.

https://www.economist.com/britain/2024/07/05/what-now-for-britains-right-wing-parties

At times, first past the post is less a democratic method than a random number generator that spits out a slim or gigantic working majority for the government of the world’s sixth-largest economy. But talk of “hollow support” for Labour should be dismissed. Britain has the system it has. Each party knew the rules of the game and each party tried to win. Labour succeeded and for the next five years will have free rein to shape the country as it pleases.

I know what you mean Will but it does make me laugh/roll my eyes that both the left of the party and centrist dads of the UK this morning are already worrying about the election in five years time!

[Fultonius]

To be fair, it's going to be a very hard shift* for the new labour government with what they have inherited, and their strict spending rules. There has been a lot of noise in the past about "reducing loopholes" but very little action, so hopefully they live by their word and find some pots to spend, or the public might not be swayed.

Strangely the pro/against Indy polls in Scotland have barely twitched, so the crumbling of the SNP isn't necessarily a change in sentiment on that, but more a reflection of the shit-show the SNP have been in recent years, and how little, actual progress towards independence they have achieved. I suspect labour wouldn't do so well in a Holyrood election right now.

And, I suspect, given even the most ardent indy supporters have probably realised it's likely to  be 10,15, 20 years until conditions align for another vote, and therefore it's better to support a more progressive UK wide vote and deliver a bigger majority for labour. I had a look at every scrap of "manifesto goal, aims, plans" of our local labour candidate and it literally was:



Not a single scrap of detail, policy, vision...nothing, just "not the Tories" (not that the Tories even had a glimpse of a chance in Glasgow North, with < 4% of the vote.) It's a shame to see Alison Thewlis go, she was a thoroughly solid MP.

*shift as in "shift worker"


Anyway, even if the landslide is a shaky one, I'm feeling mildly optimistic for the UK as a whole for the first time in around 15 years......

[Davo]

I don’t understand anyone worrying about the next election for Labour. They have a great opportunity to make a difference to the country over the next five years with an enormous majority. If they improve things, are able to make changes and communicate these improvements to the public clearly they will get back in.
They clearly have lots of difficult issues to tackle but I see it mostly as an opportunity for them to address head on lots of issues in the country: the NHS, growth, lack of investment and productivity etc

There is probably one issue that they will have to tackle that I suspect will upset many people and that is immigration levels. At the very least they need to be seen to create a system of immigration that slows down the numbers of people coming here. They also almost certainly need to tackle the small boats issue. If they don’t do this I see that many people will move further to the right and look to Farage and the tories for an answer

[seankenny]

The old people currently moaning about immigration would be a whole lot more upset if they were left to fester in their own shit when they move into a care home. They would also be very upset if you decided to tax their unearned housing wealth to pay for a social care system that wasn’t reliant on immigrant labour.

There is a reason the Labour Party didn’t spell out the hard choices…

[teestub]

The old people currently moaning about immigration would be a whole lot more upset if they were left to fester in their own shit when they move into a care home. They would also be very upset if you decided to tax their unearned housing wealth to pay for a social care system that wasn’t reliant on immigrant labour.

There is a reason the Labour Party didn’t spell out the hard choices…

Hopefully part of the answer is publicising more what the immigration figures represent in terms of people coming with visas to work in health and care, alongside the international students vital to prop up university funding.

[Davo]

The old people currently moaning about immigration would be a whole lot more upset if they were left to fester in their own shit when they move into a care home. They would also be very upset if you decided to tax their unearned housing wealth to pay for a social care system that wasn’t reliant on immigrant labour.

There is a reason the Labour Party didn’t spell out the hard choices…

In general terms I agree with your sentiments and I certainly would like to see a wealth and inheritance tax overhaul that looks at funding care. However it isn’t just the old that have an issue with immigration and I think it very much depends upon where you live and how it affects you. I think we need to recognize that many people who aren’t racists or bigots have an issue with the levels of immigration. I think Labour needs to work hard to explain to people about the benefits of controlled immigration etc

Dave

[seankenny]

The problem is that the benefits of uncontrolled EU immigation - ie using market forces - were much greater than the current model of controlled immigration! And if you want to move to that, which I suspect many Labour MPs and voters do, via the Single Market... well it's a much harder task. You'd rightly be accused of smuggling in one thing under the guise of another.

The problem is the (demographic) reason you want high migration is also the (political) reason you don't. From this point of view the ideal situation would be for everyone to move to a low immigration model, thereby entering into a low growth equilibrium in which we don't look so bad. But then that hits you with all the problems of low growth!

[stone]

Pondering the number of votes and the vote share, in light of the Lowish turn out.
Apathy or did many Labour supporters (of the less ardent type) not bother, seeing it as a done deal?
Are the pre election polls not a more accurate guide to public opinion?

A pollster on the Radio was instead attributing polling inaccuracy to pollsters having not adequately weighted voting differences of ethnic minorities.
I'm guessing he meant that in 2019, 80% of muslims voted Labour whilst this time that was much lower?

[cheque]

My job’s in Nottinghamshire which is where I grew up. After recent dalliances with the Tories it’s all Labour again now as it was for a long time, apart from Ashfield which is Reform because the local guy who they all love switched allegiances. A majority of people in Ashfield will vote for Lee Anderson no matter which party he represents (he’s now on his fourth one) because he’s a local bloke who’s visible around the town(s). It’s a deprived and isolated area that few ever leave or visit and no one apart from locals cares about and a majority of people seem willing to look past the fact that he’s a crook and a bigot because of this.

I was in Mansfield today and all my colleagues had voted Labour (not surprising, we work in the public sector) apart from the caretaker, a guy in his 20s. I was amazed when he told me he voted Reform. The reason? “I don’t know about politics so I just ticked the first box. Everyone tells me to vote so I just did that.” He said he was ashamed as he’d now learnt that all his colleagues frowned upon his choice but pleased that for the first time he’d voted for the winning candidate- the reason Reform was the first box was because he lives in Ashfield.

Another colleague said her boyfriend (also a 20something bloke) voted for Reform. She challenged him to name any of their policies and when she upbraided him for having to look at Farage’s Twitter feed for an answer he revealed it was because he “seemed like a level-headed bloke on I’m a Celebrity”.

So there’s my extremely low sample-size research into young Reform voters  I feel like when you’re principled, analytical and serious about politics it’s easy (and perhaps comforting) to forget how much is decided by people who haven’t got a clue about it basically voting for the laugh.

[Will Hunt]

I feel like when you’re principled, analytical and serious about politics it’s easy (and perhaps comforting) to forget how much is decided by people who haven’t got a clue about it basically voting for the laugh.

Agreed. I used to admire countries with enforced voting. If turnout in the UK is normally about 60 - 70% and you assume that a majority of non-voters are disinterested or disengaged, and plenty of voters are too, I'd guess at about 30% of votes cast under enforced voting being fairly random, or based purely on appearance.

[stone]

Farage, Wes Streeting, Nicola Sturgeon, Boris Johnston, Margret Thatcher and Tony Blair all seem to me exceptionally skilled in political communication. Everything they say seems clear, straightforward and compelling.

[Oldmanmatt]

Farage, Wes Streeting, Nicola Sturgeon, Boris Johnston, Margret Thatcher and Tony Blair all seem to me exceptionally skilled in political communication. Everything they say seems clear, straightforward and compelling.

Clarity, is not always the issue. For many, they’re just looking for the candidate that’s saying what they want to hear; that confirms them as “right”. That they’re part of the good ‘ole “silent majority”.
I kinda like the Pratchet quote on that:
“ Vimes had once discussed the Ephebian idea of ‘democracy’ with Carrot, and had been rather interested in the idea that everyone had a vote until he found out that while he, Vimes, would have a vote, there was no way in the rules that anyone could prevent Nobby Nobbs from having one as well. Vimes could see the flaw there straight away.”

Also: see Trump’s appeal, despite rarely being even remotely coherent. Throw out the odd (usually nasty) remark about some of the audience’s “hate list” and burbling like a drunk moron for the next hour, wins elections.

[stone]

Trump speaks clearly IMO. What he says generally is garbage, but it's communicated well.

[TobyD]

Trump speaks clearly IMO. What he says generally is garbage, but it's communicated well.

Other than forgetting where he is at a rally, repeating phrases and words, changing topic and being grammatically incoherent. People want easy answers and he tells them what they want to hear.

[Oldmanmatt]

Trump speaks clearly IMO. What he says generally is garbage, but it's communicated well.

My grandmother had a china statuette of the “three wise monkeys” on her mantelpiece, over the gas fire in her council flat.
Never made sense to me.
I just remember getting a mental image of a monkey, mouth shut, eyes closed, ears covered, squatting in the middle of a busy motorway, in the dark, during a rain storm.

Screw the “see no evil” crap. What’s that line they keep trotting out on the trains? “See it, say it, sort it”!
Much better.

[Falling Down]

Not UK, but Vive la France nevertheless.  That’s a great result (even if you disagree on some of the far-left policies) driving the RW back to third place 🇫🇷

[andy popp]

Not UK, but Vive la France nevertheless.  That’s a great result (even if you disagree on some of the far-left policies) driving the RW back to third place 🇫🇷

Phew!!!! These results are looking far better than I dared hope for.

[Andy W]

Not UK, but Vive la France nevertheless.  That’s a great result (even if you disagree on some of the far-left policies) driving the RW back to third place

Phew!!!! These results are looking far better than I dared hope for.

Mightily relieved!

[tomtom]

Meanwhile it seems that some Reform candidates simply didn’t exist. Thousands voted for a made up person! If national vote share were important it’s a clever if not possibly illegal way of driving up vote share.

https://x.com/johnwest_jaws/status/1809930362425872762?s=46&t=IZ3oEhAJLTR1G-A78VKqww

[galpinos]

Not UK, but Vive la France nevertheless.  That’s a great result (even if you disagree on some of the far-left policies) driving the RW back to third place 🇫🇷

Good wrt to RN, but bad for Macron, and French governance for the next 12 months at least. Who on earth will be PM?

[galpinos]

Meanwhile it seems that some Reform candidates simply didn’t exist. Thousands voted for a made up person! If national vote share were important it’s a clever if not possibly illegal way of driving up vote share.

https://x.com/johnwest_jaws/status/1809930362425872762?s=46&t=IZ3oEhAJLTR1G-A78VKqww

Our local candidate had no info on the Reform website and an address in South Derbyshire on the voting slip.

[spidermonkey09]

Meanwhile it seems that some Reform candidates simply didn’t exist. Thousands voted for a made up person! If national vote share were important it’s a clever if not possibly illegal way of driving up vote share.

https://x.com/johnwest_jaws/status/1809930362425872762?s=46&t=IZ3oEhAJLTR1G-A78VKqww

The piece linked in that tweet is a bit light on actual evidence, no?