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UK General Election 2024 (Read 23572 times)

Bradders

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UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 08:03:14 am
Had some fun last night coming up with a few tabloid headlines:

- Things Can Only Get Wetter
- Drowned Out
- Soggy Sunak Says See Ya
- Wet D:Reams
- Damp Dishi Ducks Out

monkoffunk

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#1 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 09:29:45 am
Telegraph went with your first!

andy popp

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#2 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 10:56:27 am
I got a right Sunaking cycling to work this morning.

stone

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#3 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 11:53:40 am
Sadly Toryism has already won -though via an internal conversion of "changed" Labour.

I got this email today:

"My Labour government will be mission-driven. And ambitions start with first steps:
Step 1: Deliver economic stability
Step 2: Cut NHS waiting times
Step 3: Launch a new Border Security Command
Step 4: Set up Great British Energy
Step 5: Crack down on antisocial behaviour
Step 6: Recruit 6,500 new teachers in key subjects
Stone, you can make this all happen."

I suppose there is still a hope (infinitesimally slight) that "Deliver economic stability" will be by way of what Labour was founded to do over a 100years ago:- setting up sectorial collective bargaining so that everyone working is paid well and pays plenty of tax instead of suffering in-work poverty. That works. That is why in Nordic countries there are people living affluently and paying tax whilst doing jobs that here leave workers depending on in-work benefits.

Our economy is now in the mess that low pay means many are on in-work benefits (in effect a subsidy skewing the economy towards forms of employment with low pay, low productivity etc). https://www.ft.com/content/b7ad1c68-59fb-11e2-b728-00144feab49a

Johnny Brown

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#4 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 12:05:12 pm
Nothing on climate?

spidermonkey09

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#5 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 12:52:07 pm
One would presume climate will feature in the manifesto, but the proposed Great British Energy pertains to climate surely.

Out of interest what are people hoping for climate wise in the manifesto?

stone

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#6 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 12:54:19 pm
Nothing on climate?
I suppose "Step 4: Set up Great British Energy" touches on that a bit. But the gulf between that and "net zero by 2030" couldn't be starker. Energy conservation in buildings, transport, land use etc etc seem missed.

stone

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#7 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 01:02:04 pm
Out of interest what are people hoping for climate wise in the manifesto?
1) A rational, planned, rapid transition to CO2-free electricity -designed by engineers. I guess that would entail a lot of nuclear and off-shore wind.
2) Free widespread public transport and efforts to reduce need for commuting etc. Ban private jets.
4) Massive retrofit of buildings to improve energy conservation.
5) Passivhaus level building standards for new buildings.
6) Dramatic land use reform -rewilding etc. "Moors for the future" type restoration of peatlands at dramatic pace everywhere applicable.

I expect none of that.

spidermonkey09

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#8 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 01:08:02 pm
Yes, that's rather a specific definition of hope! In the same vein I hope to win the lottery tomorrow despite having not bought a ticket.

Joking aside I don't disagree with the aims but the level of radicalism you seek hasn't been indicated in any way, so hoping for it seems optimistic.

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#9 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 01:45:35 pm
Stone, let’s just get Labour in first and prove they can govern effectively. They can then transform the country to a social democratic utopia over the course of 2 or 3 parliaments 😁

Johnny Brown

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#10 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 01:51:48 pm
Word to that Stone! But really all I was hoping for would be an upfront statement that Sunak's watering down of climate commitments would be reversed. We simply don't have time for anything else.

Look highly likely I'll be voting Green. Again.


Will Hunt

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#11 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 02:00:07 pm
Look highly likely I'll be voting Green. Again.



I'm voting for Kang because Kodos has been fucking dreadful and, even if Kang does not promise everything I want, they are a far better alternative to re-electing Kodos, and the only realistic alternative that our political system provides.

At the selection vote my Kang party candidate spoke enthusiastically about vote reform in the first Kang parliament.

VOTE FOR KANG.

SA Chris

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#12 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 03:05:36 pm
I, for one, welcome our new alien overlords.

Fultonius

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#13 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 03:08:57 pm
Long live FPTP! Can't believe you fuckers had the chance to vote it out and did the whole "turkeys for Christmas" thing. The mind boggles.

One simple green aim for me, ok 2:

1. Decouple electricity prices from gas prices.
2. Low cost credit for renewable energy projects. We bloody well socialise banks risks, companies risks (by bailing out pensions funds etc.) so why not socialise our future energy system.

Cost of capital is currently one of the biggest barriers to offshore wind development, and one of the few parameters the government could actually tweak.

stone

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#14 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 03:44:39 pm
Stone, let’s just get Labour in first and prove they can govern effectively. They can then transform the country to a social democratic utopia over the course of 2 or 3 parliaments 😁
As an abstract thought experiment, if Starmer were to (as he has) ditch the "Peoples Vote" stuff that he pushed so hard in 2019 (to Labour's consequent demise) but otherwise keep much of the 2019 manifesto, do you think the Tories would be on course for victory now?

As I've said before, I don't think the Tories are especially inept at implementing Tory policies. Our problems are those policies. We'll have the same problems whichever Party implements them. I hope I'm wrong.

stone

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#15 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 03:52:04 pm
One simple green aim for me, ok 2:

1. Decouple electricity prices from gas prices.
2. Low cost credit for renewable energy projects. We bloody well socialise banks risks, companies risks (by bailing out pensions funds etc.) so why not socialise our future energy system.

Cost of capital is currently one of the biggest barriers to offshore wind development, and one of the few parameters the government could actually tweak.
I suppose in principle Starmer's "Great Britain Energy" could use gilt financing for lots of wind+nuclear+grid stuff. I think the cost of capital is even more of pinch point for nuclear than it is for offshore wind. Ed Milliband is a Labour minister who I've still got some hope for. I'm clinging to this as my chink of light.

Oldmanmatt

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#16 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 04:37:47 pm
I believe our transition to carbon neutral and even net zero, continues quite rapidly:

https://grid.iamkate.com/

As an aside:
I’ve spent the week seemingly talking about nothing except the transition of marine engine manufacturing to Methanol fuel, including a heated meeting with Rolls Royce, here in Dubai, where they outlined their intentions to transition over the next ten years to solely Methanol production. Representatives of several Middle Eastern Navies, quite taken aback, along with a few reps from the oil and gas sector.
One quite irate delegate complained methanol just isn’t available in the mid east, Denise Kurtulus (VP Global Marine, RR) shrugged her shoulders and replied “it will have to be”.
Of course green methanol isn’t big enough yet…

“The Market” knows which way the wind is blowing and once the decision is made, it will go after it like an XL Bully on a toddler.
You’d be surprised how many local nations have noticed they get quite a bit of sunshine here and the finite nature of oil and gas reserves…

Right, election, why do so many people seem to think Labour is a shoe-in? The poling looks closer than I would like to take that bet.
Ok, Labour is aggregating around 44%, Cons 22 ish, but Reform are polling at 11+. A slight upset in Labour’s run and we could be looking at a Con/Reform coalition. Is that too far fetched? Really?
I arranged a postal vote, prior to leaving this time. I will vote Labour, for the first time in my life.

Edit: I almost did last time, but I’m a Liberal really and bottled it.

stone

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#17 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 04:51:50 pm
Right, election, why do so many people seem to think Labour is a shoe-in? The poling looks closer than I would like to take that bet.
Ok, Labour is aggregating around 44%, Cons 22 ish, but Reform are polling at 11+. A slight upset in Labour’s run and we could be looking at a Con/Reform coalition. Is that too far fetched? Really?
This website has seemed pretty good to me in the past. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
It is hard to get to a Con/Reform coalition from their seat predictions. It is hard for thinly spread votes to get converted into seats. UKIP got no seats in FPTP elections despite sizeable vote share.

Oldmanmatt

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#18 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 05:10:28 pm
Right, election, why do so many people seem to think Labour is a shoe-in? The poling looks closer than I would like to take that bet.
Ok, Labour is aggregating around 44%, Cons 22 ish, but Reform are polling at 11+. A slight upset in Labour’s run and we could be looking at a Con/Reform coalition. Is that too far fetched? Really?
This website has seemed pretty good to me in the past. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
It is hard to get to a Con/Reform coalition from their seat predictions. It is hard for thinly spread votes to get converted into seats. UKIP got no seats in FPTP elections despite sizeable vote share.

I hadn’t considered it in those terms, it’s a good point.
However, lingering doubt, right wing voters are no dumber than progressives, despite appearances. They’ve seen the effect in recent elections of the split and it’s not local anymore. Perhaps any blue is better than even a hint of pink to them and come the day, they’ll plump for the darker shade?
Again, the actual split between right and left looks as it always does, if for once, the right looks more divided than the left. 🤷🏻‍♂️

teestub

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#19 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 07:24:15 pm

As I've said before, I don't think the Tories are especially inept at implementing Tory policies. Our problems are those policies. We'll have the same problems whichever Party implements them. I hope I'm wrong.

I think that in (what feels like) the last 12000 years of government, the tories have been successful in moving the Overton window a long way right. Therefore I think a pragmatic approach to avoid being labelled another loopy radical like Corbyn is to start centrist, then move left over years of successful government.

I hope they do something on Europe as well as climate, customs union? Prob not for manifesto though, too spicy.

Wonder if they are still nervous on climate after ulez stuff in the by-election?

andy popp

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#20 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 07:40:15 pm
Right, election, why do so many people seem to think Labour is a shoe-in? The poling looks closer than I would like to take that bet.
Ok, Labour is aggregating around 44%, Cons 22 ish, but Reform are polling at 11+. A slight upset in Labour’s run and we could be looking at a Con/Reform coalition. Is that too far fetched? Really?
This website has seemed pretty good to me in the past. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
It is hard to get to a Con/Reform coalition from their seat predictions. It is hard for thinly spread votes to get converted into seats. UKIP got no seats in FPTP elections despite sizeable vote share.

I hadn’t considered it in those terms, it’s a good point.
However, lingering doubt, right wing voters are no dumber than progressives, despite appearances. They’ve seen the effect in recent elections of the split and it’s not local anymore. Perhaps any blue is better than even a hint of pink to them and come the day, they’ll plump for the darker shade?

Perhaps they'll pick up one somewhere, but there's not a hope in hell Reform will win enough seats to be coalition partners. As you hint, much more important is where and how they split votes. I'm sure that in some "Red Wall" seats they'll pick up some disaffected former Labour voters who went Tory in 2019. But evidence from by-elections such as Blackpool South, a classic red wall/leave voting constituency, suggest they are cannibalising much more of the Tory vote than Labour. Even so, in Blackpool, the combined Tory/Reform still lost very heavily to Labour. Obviously by-elections are different etc. etc.

Reform not helped by Farage's decision today not to run (and to basically bugger off to America).

Will the Greens retain Brighton Pavilion now Caroline Lucas is stepping down, and can they take Bristol Central?

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#21 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 08:06:04 pm

As I've said before, I don't think the Tories are especially inept at implementing Tory policies. Our problems are those policies. We'll have the same problems whichever Party implements them. I hope I'm wrong.

I think that in (what feels like) the last 12000 years of government, the tories have been successful in moving the Overton window a long way right. Therefore I think a pragmatic approach to avoid being labelled another loopy radical like Corbyn is to start centrist, then move left over years of successful government.

I hope they do something on Europe as well as climate, customs union? Prob not for manifesto though, too spicy.

Wonder if they are still nervous on climate after ulez stuff in the by-election?

At the risk of sounding stupid, what do you mean by the tories success at moving the Overton window a long way right?

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#22 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 08:09:09 pm
The range of views and policies considered reasonable and acceptable by the public.

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#23 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 08:23:58 pm
How has the Tory party moved that range to the right and at the same time created a situation where they’re looking at the potential for a big defeat? Or are Labour now right of where they were when Tony Blair was in power?

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#24 Re: UK General Election 2024
May 23, 2024, 10:58:30 pm
How has the Tory party moved that range to the right and at the same time created a situation where they’re looking at the potential for a big defeat? Or are Labour now right of where they were when Tony Blair was in power?

Q2: no, they are not.  Q1: I don't believe that they have,  really.  Indeed,  I'm not sure that traditional left and right makes that much sense now.  It's almost inevitable that more money needs to be spent on defence in the next few years; I don't like it,  but it does.  Neither party is being totally honest about how difficult economic choices will be in the next few years,  there isn't going to be badly needed big spending on public services, or lower taxes.  Both parties are desperately trying not to mention Brexit,  which is plainly silly from a policy point of view but convenient politically for both of them.  Management of trade and migration are hugely dependent on our relationship with Europe and it needs addressing. 
I haven't voted Labour for a long time but almost certainly will now, they're closer to having the beginning of a decent environmental/ industrial policy, and have a credible sane shadow chancellor and a shadow health secretary with some positive sounding ideas on the NHS. 

 

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