[Ged]

Plus, it was his second in the same match - and against a goalkeeper who he plays club football with, so you'd expect knows his / his "tells" better than most.

I can't imagine the pressure of the first one, let alone the second one. I mean what do you do - send it the same side as the first one, go the other way, belt it down the middle, panenka?

Both the taker and the goalkeeper will have already decided before the match where they are going to go for a first, second and third penalty.

Really? Loads of takers these days clearly play the game on the run up, do the whole stutter and jump thing, to see which way the keeper will go, and then put it the other way. Equally, surely keepers try and read rhe run up and dive accordingly (it's pretty obvious when a right footed player opens their body up to send it to their right)

[edshakey]

Kane isn't one of those players though. He picks a spot, and smashes it in that direction. I suppose if you're talking about someone like Jorginho, who definitely seems to try to get the keeper to blink first. Maybe that means Jorginho won't balloon it over the bar, but it also means Kane won't softly pass the ball into the keeper's waiting arms!*

Even with those players like Jorginho though, I do wonder if they still have a side chosen already. After all, if the keeper has learned your run up and anticipates the stutter (they definitely will in the top games) then if the keeper holds off, you have to choose. Maybe the process is "left, unless the keeper's already gone that way" 

*I've just remembered Jorginho has ballooned one over the bar: last min against Switzerland, in a Qatar qualifier. Interestingly he did a more conventional run up that time. I don't know what this proves, but there it is! 

[Ged]

Didn't he also do a conventional run up against England in the euros final and pickford saved it?

I can't even remember what we were arguing about to be honest!

[Rocksteady]

And the stakes didn't come much bigger than last night. Near the end of the game, your team is on the ascendency and woukd have a high chance of going on to win, relatively easy opposition in the next round, potential for first World Cup final in 60 years.

Sorry to pick this up out of context, but I've heard the pundits saying this too and I don't get it.

England beat Iran, Wales & Senegal then failed against the first top flight team they played. I don't see why everyone thought they had an easy path to the final past Morocco who've beaten Belgium, Spain & Portugal?! Yes if you looked at history you'd back England against Morocco, but in terms of form Morocco don't look like an easy win to me for any team in the competition.

[Ged]

You're absolutely right. I've fallen into the same trap as everyone. They are clearly going to be very hard to beat

[sdm]

Plus, it was his second in the same match - and against a goalkeeper who he plays club football with, so you'd expect knows his / his "tells" better than most.

I can't imagine the pressure of the first one, let alone the second one. I mean what do you do - send it the same side as the first one, go the other way, belt it down the middle, panenka?

Both the taker and the goalkeeper will have already decided before the match where they are going to go for a first, second and third penalty.

Really? Loads of takers these days clearly play the game on the run up, do the whole stutter and jump thing, to see which way the keeper will go, and then put it the other way. Equally, surely keepers try and read rhe run up and dive accordingly (it's pretty obvious when a right footed player opens their body up to send it to their right)

A few players can do that. Not many though, and Kane isn't one of them. He picks his spot in advance, and he usually hits it sufficiently hard and sufficiently close to the corner that the keeper needs to move early to have a chance of saving it. If you watch penalties where he goes right, his body position is usually very similar until right at the last moment, where his foot opens up. He doesn't usually open up his body in the exaggerated way that a weaker player does.

Against a weaker player who has to open up their body much more, or who hits a penalty slower or further from the corner, the keeper can afford to wait for a tell and then try to react to it. When Kane gets it right, the ball is already past the keeper before they have had a chance to react and dive so their best option is to pre-select where they think the ball is going. If they go for reacting, the ball will already be beyond them by the time they react unless he executes it poorly.

For examples, look at the penalties he scored against Everton, Bayern Munich, Manchester United and Frankfurt. In each one, the keeper picked the perfect spot, started his dive before Kane struck the ball, and he still couldn't get there in time.

[Ged]

I agree with everything you say there about Harry kane. But your post was saying that all players and keepers will have decided what they're going to do before the match. And in a lot of cases these days I don't think that's true. Jorginho isn't unusual these days in his approach. Look at some regulars in the Premier league. Fernandes, Salah, all try and play the keeper.

[cheque]

If I was asked to give an example of a player who just blasts pens into an unreachable spot and doesn’t think about the keeper at all I’d say Kane. Maybe having the guy he (presumably) practices them against all the time (as well as all the other obvious pressures) in there made him think about the keeper more? I always feel like Kane’s strength in general is that he doesn’t think too much and gets on with it but everyone has a limit I suppose.

I guess penalties are like hard moves- you never drop them when they’re the first move of a boulder problem but it’s a different story when they’re at the top of the last repoint opportunity of your holiday… 

I really enjoy watching England these days. For so many years it was turgid stalemates, never going more than one goal ahead no matter who the opposition was, giving it away at non-dangerous but momentum-destroying points, midfielders panicking and skying it over the bar when they got into the final third, somehow making it to extra time and penalties even though it was obvious we were the worse side, Gerrard making that face that looks like he can smell dog shit, that brass band parping away in the distance… we’re not quite lifting the trophies now but fucking hell it’s so exciting to watch in comparison. The last couple of games we’ve had this cool technique of breaking inside from the wing seemingly via being challenged, Saka getting huge amounts of joy on the right, all amazing to watch. The France tie was just one of those when both teams play well but one is that bit better at taking their chances, I love matches like that even when it’s not my team that’s the winner.

Anyone fancy sticking their necks out with semi predictions ? Obviously Morocco as champions is the result all neutrals want and they look absolutely impenetrable but I reckon they’ll lose if they go behind against France. I’m also going to stick with my Argentina-as-winners prediction. Not sure I can concoct a plausible-sounding reason for that but it’s what the narrative demands and I really can’t be arsed with Croatia any more.

[SA Chris]

Who I'd like to win in order  1) Morocco 2) Croatia 3) Argentina 4) France

How i think it will finish in order 1) Argentina 2) France 3) Morocco 4) Croatia

[spidermonkey09]

I really don't want Croatia to win. Boring football played by an average team for me, how they got past Brazil I'll never know.

Morocco would be my preference but I think France will batter them. An Argentina-France final, and I think Argentina might edge it.

[SA Chris]

how they got past Brazil I'll never know.

Penalties obviously. As much as we've talked about over the last 2 pages, it's no fairer than teams rolling a 4 sided pyramid dice against each other, and hoping it doesn't come up a match. 

[sdm]

I agree with everything you say there about Harry kane. But your post was saying that all players and keepers will have decided what they're going to do before the match. And in a lot of cases these days I don't think that's true. Jorginho isn't unusual these days in his approach. Look at some regulars in the Premier league. Fernandes, Salah, all try and play the keeper.

I was referring specifically to the keeper
and taker in that match rather than all keepers/takers in any match. I should have used clearer wording.

Salah's an interesting one. He's taken a few where he tries to wait for the keeper, but most of his are just head down and try to break the net with little thought about placement.

He's a great player, but a mediocre penalty taker. Albeit, one with a great success rate. Too many are too close to the keeper, so that they should be saved if the keeper guesses the right way, and the ones down the middle are often too low to clear a trailing leg.

He's a great example of how long you can maintain a winning/losing streak against the odds. That, or he's a genius operating on some totally different level.

[abarro81]

He's [...] a mediocre penalty taker. Albeit, one with a great success rate.

At some point, these things are not compatible. I don't know the person but if this is success rate after 5 penalties maybe it's luck, if it's after 100 then the power of stats suggests he's actually quite good...

[gme]

I really don't want Croatia to win. Boring football played by an average team for me, how they got past Brazil I'll never know.

Morocco would be my preference but I think France will batter them. An Argentina-France final, and I think Argentina might edge it.

Now its purely down to being entertained for me i would like to see France win as i think they play the nicest football out the the remaining 4.

Would be good to see Morocco win they are not great to watch and i think the aggro Argies would best them in the final and whilst Messi and co can play some amazing footy there behavior in the Holland match was not in the spirt of the rest of the WC so they dont deserve to win.

France v Arg final with France winning by 2-1 would be great.

[spidermonkey09]

 the aggro Argies ...there behavior in the Holland match was not in the spirt of the rest of the WC so they dont deserve to win.

I found this a really interesting debate after the game. Given that a Dutch player was walking with every Argentine penalty taker on their way to the spot and trying to put them off I thought the reaction was pretty understandable. Also, a lot of teams do it...https://twitter.com/Dewos__/status/1602068110860754944

The general vibe between both players in the actual match was dirty I agree. So many yellows, can't believe there wasn't a red.

[gme]

The Dutch were guilty as well but it had gotten bad well before the penalties.

I just think the whole tournament has been played in a manner that we unfortunately dont often see at football and this game reverted to type, which is a shame. Hence why Argentina wont be getting my support.

France have been better as well.

[sdm]

He's [...] a mediocre penalty taker. Albeit, one with a great success rate.

At some point, these things are not compatible. I don't know the person but if this is success rate after 5 penalties maybe it's luck, if it's after 100 then the power of stats suggests he's actually quite good...

I think his record is 30 scored from 35 (I actually thought it was better than this) and the average conversion rate is 78% in open play or 64% in shootouts so the odds are in favour of him being better than your average penalty taker but there's still a reasonable chance that he might be average or below average.

He isn't a terrible penalty taker. He takes too many good penalties for that but he takes far too many poorly placed penalties in a goalkeeper independent style to be particularly good.

Keepers effectively do one of 3 things: dive low left, dive low right or stay in the centre. By hitting penalties relatively centrally, and/or hitting them at the perfect height for a keeper to save, Salah often gives the keeper a good chance of saving it if they choose 2 out of the 3 possibilities.

[TobyD]

I really don't want Croatia to win. Boring football played by an average team for me, how they got past Brazil I'll never know.

Morocco would be my preference but I think France will batter them. An Argentina-France final, and I think Argentina might edge it.

Now its purely down to being entertained for me i would like to see France win as i think they play the nicest football out the the remaining 4.

Would be good to see Morocco win they are not great to watch and i think the aggro Argies would best them in the final and whilst Messi and co can play some amazing footy there behavior in the Holland match was not in the spirt of the rest of the WC so they dont deserve to win.

France v Arg final with France winning by 2-1 would be great.

I agree, allez Les Bleus!

[gme]

That was some match. Non stop for the full 90. Thought Morocco were going to score until the last 10 after the 2nd France goal.

Proper entertainment.

France for the cup as they still look like they have another gear to use yet.

[SA Chris]

Convinced Morocco were going to equalise right up until second France goal, a few squandered opportunities and some bad luck.

[Bradders]

Proof if it were needed that Morocco were massively deserving semi-finalists.

[spidermonkey09]

Yeah, Morocco looked great. Just missing a bit of luck/ clinical finishing. I thought the game was quite similar to the France England game actually; in both France were pretty ruthless in front of goal and their opponents slightly wasteful/the ball just didn't fall for them.

Based on the going over Theo Hernandez has had at the hands of both Saka and Hakimi I think his contest with Messi could be massive in the final. Suspect France may start Thuram to help him out a bit.

[SA Chris]

Was it me, or did they seem overly keen to mark Mbappe (sometimes 2 defenders on him) leaving other players unmarked?

[spidermonkey09]

Was it me, or did they seem overly keen to mark Mbappe (sometimes 2 defenders on him) leaving other players unmarked?

Think they will have seen what England did, which was basically that (Walker and Saka on him at all times), which worked really well to shackle Mbappe, but left other players free; Griezman and Tchouameni in particular.

[edshakey]

Was it me, or did they seem overly keen to mark Mbappe (sometimes 2 defenders on him) leaving other players unmarked?

You have to do it though - we've so far seen teams both double up and not double up on him. Neither seems to work. Unless you have an incredible full back that can handle Mbappe alone (and I'm not convinced there has been one all tournament), you have to have someone else help out. Which will necessarily create more space inside for Griezmann to run riot.

The only way to beat France would appear to be outscoring them by being brutally clinical at every chance you get (neither England nor Morocco were this), or by playing something like 5-5-0 and holding on for penalties. France have shown themselves to be far from impenetrable defensively, but their attack seems very very hard to handle.

Given Argentina will still want to attack, I imagine the final could be a thriller! Fingers crossed for plenty of goals