[SA Chris]

Surprised the big oil service nationals are in the bottom list, I know they are normally first to toe the US government line and at least one of those should be in list #3.

[mrjonathanr]

I am not in any way surprised by Halliburton. AstraZeneca however..

[Muenchener]

AstraZeneca however..

My ex works in clinical trials in the pharma industry (and is Russian). Don't know anything about AZ specifically, but lots of European companies do - did - a lot of their clinical trials in Russia, because it's (a) cheaper than the EU, (b) a somewhat more (ahem) "flexible" regulatory environment but (c) majority populations genetically similar enough to have few concerns about applicability/transferability of results.

My ex's best friend, in the same business based in Moscow, lost her job on day one of sanctions.

[mrjonathanr]

Sorry to hear that. Hurting the Russian economy is euphemistic when it’s ordinary people who get hurt.

[Muenchener]

Yeah. More worried though about my ex's nephew, who is a good kid and of conscription age

[mrjonathanr]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500196510054637569
 

This is put forward as a translation (a few tweets down thread)
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500301348780199937

[mrjonathanr]

What are the implications for the world’s food supply of the war? Combined, Ukraine and Russia export approx 30% of world wheat or about 12.5% of world calorie consumption.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/war-in-ukraine-and-climate-change-could-combine-to-create-a-food-crisis/

[seankenny]

World Food Programme are pretty pessimistic:

“WFP had already warned that 2022 would be a year of catastrophic hunger, with 44 million people in 38 countries teetering on the edge of famine.”

The counties affected are unfortunately the ones you’d expect. Yemen, Afghanistan, Syria, Ethiopia, plus all those other very food insecure places that no one ever hears about.



https://www.wfp.org/stories/ukraine-war-more-countries-will-feel-burn-food-and-energy-price-rises-fuel-hunger-warns-wfp

[mrjonathanr]

Free online talk from Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford, Monday 21 March. 5pm. Register here:
How will this end? The military situation in Ukraine and its political implications

[mrjonathanr]

A very interesting analysis of the outcomes and options from a Chinese perspective.
https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/

TL;DR China should abandon Putin’s regime to its fate.

Author

Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor’s Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor.

[joel182]

one interesting thing is that these lot are very active here at the Medyka border crossing...

[petejh]

An in depth look at how long Russia can withstand sanctions (TLDR: with oil/gas exports intact, a long time):
https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2022/03/15/how-long-can-russia-withstand-the-sanctions/

The conclusion of all these calculations is simple: As long as Russia can continue to export oil and gas, it can finance the revenue shortfalls generated by the sanctions for a long time. But the economic toll will be enormous: GDP will drop nearly 10% over the next 12 months alone and may not stop there.

But if Russia loses its oil and gas revenues, it will run out of money within one to two years.

[mrjonathanr]

Free online talk from Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford, Monday 21 March. 5pm. Register here:
How will this end? The military situation in Ukraine and its political implications

This talk has just started for those interested in watching (5pm Monday 21)

[andy popp]

https://www.climbing.com/news/ukrainian-refugees-climber-alex-megos-jenya-kazbekova/?utm_campaign=&utm_content=&utm_medium=organic-social&utm_source=Rock%20and%20Ice%20magazine-facebook&fbclid=IwAR1x-9WCG6Sm_NLyVmiXxMAihzCdVBKdqrhgxbQ2_VGFf22o5J-Wi3ZR6sI

[Fultonius]

An in depth look at how long Russia can withstand sanctions (TLDR: with oil/gas exports intact, a long time):
https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2022/03/15/how-long-can-russia-withstand-the-sanctions/

The conclusion of all these calculations is simple: As long as Russia can continue to export oil and gas, it can finance the revenue shortfalls generated by the sanctions for a long time. But the economic toll will be enormous: GDP will drop nearly 10% over the next 12 months alone and may not stop there.

But if Russia loses its oil and gas revenues, it will run out of money within one to two years.

I see Putin is demanding all gas be bought in Rubles. I can't see this as anything other than a massive death knell for Russian gas long term - I can't see how any country/business will ever base their long term outlook on anything other than highly unstable (aka expensive / high risk) Russian gas for the foreseeable - it will shift many decisions towards what may have been considered higher risk/cost energy options before (all IMO obvs.)

[Moo]

I think it's a strong sign of desperation, delusion or both on Putins part.

[mrjonathanr]

It is to shore up the rouble since they are largely locked out of swift and the rouble is weak against the de facto gold standard, the dollar. If it works, with gas importing countries like Germany feeling they can’t risk disruption to supply, it is a clever move.
If it doesn’t, it accelerates trade away from Russian energy over a longer term.

It’s probably a shrewd move given the situation from a Russian perspective. Ball’s in western court now.

[mrjonathanr]

Got 5 minutes? A message from Mariupol.

https://www.instagram.com/tv/Ccnf9mcrVUg/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

[SA Chris]

https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/almost-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain

Interesting update from last time it was posted, especially as laws are being updated regularly.

[duncan]

BBC journalist Paul Kenyon’s experience of 24 hours around the start of the war, absolutely gripping.

https://play.acast.com/s/6246b75a30fb610012feb954/62f570762461610012043ad7

Could have gone in Podcasts but I think worth putting here in the light of recent developments. 

There are some very good guests in the others in the series but, and perhaps this is just me, an underlying sense to me of a pair of military historians getting a bit too excited about a large scale European war in their lifetimes.

[Duma]

This is pretty worrying
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/15/stray-russian-missiles-feared-landed-poland-ukraine

[Oldmanmatt]

This is pretty worrying
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/15/stray-russian-missiles-feared-landed-poland-ukraine

*Very.

[petejh]

Most likely explanation is it was unintended. Possibly a malfunction or knocked off target by air defenses. There's not much to be gained by Russia hitting Poland, they can't even take more than about one fifth of Ukraine so they present zero threat to taking NATO territory in a conventional overland war. If the thinking is for incremental hits inside a NATO country to gauge response and provoke escalation into trading long-range strikes with NATO then they've become suicidal. I doubt Putin is suicidal.   

[Oldmanmatt]

Most likely explanation is it was unintended. Possibly a malfunction or knocked off target by air defenses. There's not much to be gained by Russia hitting Poland, they can't even take more than about one fifth of Ukraine so they present zero threat to taking NATO territory in a conventional overland war. If the thinking is for incremental hits inside a NATO country to gauge response and provoke escalation into trading long-range strikes with NATO then they've become suicidal. I doubt Putin is suicidal.

Personally, I have strong reservations about Putin’s sanity, along with much of his top echelon of ministers/Generals. Even their state TV pundits seem to be turning on him or, at least his immediate subordinates, so absolute desperation in his part isn’t a huge stretch.
Still, almost certainly this is accidental.
Unfortunately, accidents of this nature give the hawks on both sides a chink in normal, rational, behaviour; that they can jam their ideological pry bars in to and really have a go at popping open the lid of Pandora’s box…
Equally, and almost as certainly, this will be over by morning. Inshallah. God willing, Shiva permitting, -insert imaginary friends name here- allowing.

[petejh]

Koo koo