[Fiend]

Obviously this is very bleak situation, but this raised a smile:

https://mobile.twitter.com/CcibChris/status/1503352413410971652?t=u5YhQu-KjXfqSPpUmyNFKQ&s=19

[SamT]

Plenty of well informed people think exactly this.
https://www.instagram.com/p/CbDWI0BMb61/?utm_medium=copy_link
I’ve put the link to an Instagram summary of the twitter thread, because it’s relatively difficult to pin down the thread and it doesn’t seem to be on Kamil’s Substack yet.

Page not found..   

[Oldmanmatt]

Plenty of well informed people think exactly this.
https://www.instagram.com/p/CbDWI0BMb61/?utm_medium=copy_link
I’ve put the link to an Instagram summary of the twitter thread, because it’s relatively difficult to pin down the thread and it doesn’t seem to be on Kamil’s Substack yet.

Page not found..   

Oh. Still works for me. Have a trawl back through his twitter feed:
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani?s=21

Good article in the FT and not paywalled:

https://www.ft.com/content/503fb110-f91e-4bed-b6dc-0d09582dd007?segmentID=ba5c37f3-1ef2-1603-ca72-c26f292ab7db&fbclid=IwAR3Yw3QT3J3tYfq74Fhor1N2S_KnJzJ8tB_p0RkpiBOOBB_g5i6ieOix8zQ_aem_AS8KyEokEKGe9nzIDLhSZOfXILCRkG-coLMWN7s-6aiIGNvlqYAdPP0FKDBN3c6_38Y1AXn1Koemx1Xzsb3FSgkl1WNMK9IYKfuQHQlY54b6nFsVrSKqeqvNEVbxMId6ahE

[Oldmanmatt]

This is more significant that it might first appear:
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CbH0c-LgrKV/?utm_medium=copy_link

[Nails]

Sorry to be lazy OMM but could you save me the trawling and tell us why.

[Oldmanmatt]

Sorry to be lazy OMM but could you save me the trawling and tell us why.

Which one? The Monaco freezing Russian assets? It’s on a par with Switzerland freezing Russian assets, unheard of. Those places make their (quite vast) wealth harbouring/investing/managing some pretty dirty money, no questions asked. Both have acted quite swiftly and publicly (and they didn’t have to, not many people would have thought much about it, they weren’t in danger of becoming pariah states etc).

Or the Kamel Galeev musings? (Academic/historian from the Wilson Centre).
This is the thread I was thinking of (though there are several):











Minus the link to the tv clip, which doesn’t screen cap well…
Hopefully in order and complete enough to follow the gist.

Also, the musing has some flaws, since Abramaovich seems to have fled back to Russia, now.
Though I guess that fits with the “Oligarchs are fucked and can’t escape” logic.

[mrjonathanr]

For anyone who finds his ideas interesting, his Twitter page has a thread of threads which you can use to navigate a nd select a thread topic. Well worthwhile if you want a historical perspective on current Russian situation.
For someone like me, essentially ignorant of Russian history, fascinating stuff.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[Oldmanmatt]

For anyone who finds his ideas interesting, his Twitter page has a thread of threads which you can use to navigate a nd select a thread topic. Well worthwhile if you want a historical perspective on current Russian situation.
For someone like me, essentially ignorant of Russian history, fascinating stuff.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

He’s taken seriously enough to be mentioned in our briefings.
I think our analysts largely concur with this thinking.
Without too much detail, I have been shocked to realise how long this has been expected/feared and how much was already in place to try and discourage Putin. He’s moved earlier than anticipated. This wasn’t an accident and was a couple of years in planning:
https://www.facebook.com/100064902391034/posts/336003345239743/

The scale here is incredible. Taken with what’s been deployed into Europe, in a conventional conflict, this would flatten Russia in a few days. Far from being weak In it’s response, the West and NATO are very well prepared and seemingly, sanctions wise, were ready.
What has been learnt about asymmetric warfare, during the long drag of GWOT and has been taught to the Ukrainians, is proving very effective. Doctrine that grew from the questions “what if we were the Taliban? What did they do well? How could we do it better?”

[Nails]

Thanks for the posts. All fascinating stuff. I just have to fully assimilate it now.

[mrjonathanr]

Here’s something to get your head round Nails. Persevere with it, it’s his analysis of the most effective strategies to win. Take it with a pinch of salt 😏

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1503768312236421120

[Oldmanmatt]

John Deere tractors have a new ad out:
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CbF6cHCKZCK/?utm_medium=copy_link

Managing a rebellious population is no cake walk. You would think Russians, in particular, would know that.

Good thread link MrJR, I’d not seen that one.

[Nails]

So what do you Mr JR think Putin's salt is? And would his salt be something that  Ukraine can live with? Zelensky playing quite a smart game at the moment with the whole we're not joining NATO as they wouldn't enforce a no-fly zone

[Oldmanmatt]

So what do you Mr JR think Putin's salt is? And would his salt be something that  Ukraine can live with? Zelensky playing quite a smart game at the moment with the whole we're not joining NATO as they wouldn't enforce a no-fly zone

No, I don’t think Kamel is suggesting offering salt to Putin, I believe he thinks it’s the Russian people that should be recruited/seasoned. Maybe JR read it differently.

[mrjonathanr]

So what do you Mr JR think Putin's salt is? And would his salt be something that  Ukraine can live with? Zelensky playing quite a smart game at the moment with the whole we're not joining NATO as they wouldn't enforce a no-fly zone

Like Matt says, my read of his argument was the first tweet (de-escalation is insane) is really the same as the last one: we have nothing to offer which Putin wants. He may be minded to compromise if events turn against him, but he isn't going to do so willingly. The Russian population and the Russian soldiers are a different matter, so offer them rewards and stand up to Putin; his support will disintegrate.

He compares Putin to Alexander, who would have capitulated had his serfs really revolted creating a dangerous front behind his army, and who lost when his men went AWOL in France because tough as they were at Borodin, they had a better offer and took it. So he thinks we should pursue similar strategies. At least, that's my understanding.

[Oldmanmatt]

Bloody hell. The Yanks are getting serious, calling Putin a war criminal and then this:
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-us-weapons-package/

Those drones are high end kit:
https://taskandpurpose.com/military-tech/marine-corps-drone-swarms/
I have a briefing from an RM Major tomorrow (because we’re their taxi drivers into littoral combat). It won’t cover allies tactics or equipment, but I think I can guess where “any questions” will end up. Ukraine has been the inevitable drift for every conversation here. To be clear, none of us, in the audience, are cleared for much detail, but it’s fascinating hearing experts talking about this.

Worrying, too.

Strong language and overt, lethal, support. Hopefully they know more than we do, about the situation in the Kremlin.

[mrjonathanr]

Stay safe OMM.

Nails, one point to clarify: KG thinks Napoleon lost because he wrongly judged what he had to offer Alexander was valuable to him and ignored the levers truly available to win because he thought he could finesse a compromise. He’s saying it’s analogous, don’t make the same mistake with Putin.

[joel182]

Things are still pretty crazy here at the Medyka-Shehnyi border.

Literally no presence from UNHCR yet, and a generally pretty terrible showing from the big NGOs.

Still tens of thousands crossing the border into Poland each day.

Disgraceful that we are still refusing to accomodate Ukrainians in the UK.

[Nails]

OK, I get the point, and it's a good one. His exposition and circuitous journey around the utter brutality of Russian history is interesting ( and by Russian historical standards you could almost classify Putin as a benevolent leader), but what is the salt that we could offer the Russian people/troops? What rewards? I'm sure the West loves the concept of regime change, bringing it about is another matter. Plus, I think events turned against Putin virtually from the start of this invasion. I still think the concept of an off-ramp.may be of some use. He is undoubtedly obsessed with the idea of a greater Russia and his own legacy ( apparently very keen on significant dates and events etc). Commentators assume he's also concerned with his own survival, yet I think his pride, ego and legacy are what he's actually preoccupied with.

[mrjonathanr]

Sanctions and rewards for desertion. Did you see the whole thread? You have to click show replies a couple of times, it’s about 100 tweets. You make a good point Nails, existential is about more than purely material survival, it’s identity too.

Joël, sorry to read that about NGOs. And surprised about UNHCR, that’s weird. I got a letter from my (Tory) MP’s office about this today. Basically we are doing all these good things with visas, but not Schengen so can’t risk having Russian agents coming in incognito. Maybe they’re just running short of space in the House of Lords? Just nonsense.

You are doing a clas thing; respect. Hope you get the support there which is needed.

[Will Hunt]

He's lost up to 200,000 Russians who have fled to neighbouring countries since the invasion started (these will be mobile, middle class people - the type of people who staff businesses and institutions that are integral to a well-functioning society)

An n=1 on this.
My wife's work colleague has a British friend who has lived in Russia with her Russian husband and their teenage son for years and years. Fluent Russian speaker and a schoolteacher there. She drove back here and arrived in Yorkshire a couple of days ago. 1 schoolteacher down; I'm not sure what the husband's occupation is but he'll be soon to follow. Multiply that by thousands (and keep multiplying it as more flee). No wonder that Vlad is on the TV calling people who make their homes elsewhere scum and traitors, and about a "cleansing" of society.

I expect he'll close borders soon.

[danm]

He's going full Stalin, I expect to see internal purges next as scapegoats for the failure in Ukraine are selected. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks with China. Do they cut their losses and stop supporting Putin or do they try to prop him up and risk becoming victims of secondary sanctions by the West and further poison their relations with a newly rejuvenated Western alliance?

[Wellsy]

The video he posted was textbook fascist rhetoric. Serious shit.

[Oldmanmatt]

Rumour is, large scale Russian withdrawal from Georgia for redeployment into Ukraine; raising big questions about security of Russian position in Georgia.
Have the 5th directorate been lying about Georgian enthusiasm for Russian rule?
I’ve seen some clips of armour columns “leaving” and being “cheered on” with plenty of Russian flags waving. Unclear if those were previously pro-Russian areas or where, or if their withdrawal is simply being celebrated etc.

[mrjonathanr]

List of companies scaling back or ploughing on with business in Russia, from Yale Business School. I believe it updates.

https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-400-companies-have-withdrawn-russia-some-remain

Awkward if you like Decathlon/Simond.

[SA Chris]

Mentioned Simond in the strings thread. Not great.