[moose]

Nibile: Usyk KO 11 for my money

Do you mean Usyk wins by ko or loses by ko?

I reckon Joshua will win by TKO.  Usyk is the better boxer, pound for pound (that Papa Lomachenko training) but he is a natural Cruiserweight and Joshua is a biiiiggggg Heavyweight.  Evander Holyfield might have bridged that gap in the past but he was probably 'roided (see the "Evan Fields" Balco controversy).  And, he faced smaller Heavyweights - Tyson for all his ability and viciousness was 5'10", Joshua is 6' 5-6".

Despite the difference in their physiques, Usyk has similarities to Ruiz, Joshua's last opponent  - not tall, fast hands, and good technique. In the rematch against Ruiz, Joshua showed he could box patiently against such a speedster - keeping him at range and using the jab, Klitschko style. Usyk has won his two Heavyweight fights - Chaz Weatherspoon and Chisora  - but while he never looked liked losing, he was not convincing.  I wouldn't bet any money on it (and I find Usyk quite engaging "I am very....feel"), but I think a non-washed, genuine "Super Heavyweight" will be an unpleasant surprise for him - weight divisions exist for a a reason.

[Yossarian]

Usyk KO 11 for my money.

For a moment I thought this was a proposed name and new grading system for Gresh's route...

[Nibile]

Moose and Liam, cheers.
Mixed feeling for me, I like both fighters.

[spidermonkey09]

Nibile: Usyk KO 11 for my money

Do you mean Usyk wins by ko or loses by ko?

I reckon Joshua will win by TKO.  Usyk is the better boxer, pound for pound (that Papa Lomachenko training) but he is a natural Cruiserweight and Joshua is a biiiiggggg Heavyweight.  Evander Holyfield might have bridged that gap in the past but he was probably 'roided (see the "Evan Fields" Balco controversy).  And, he faced smaller Heavyweights - Tyson for all his ability and viciousness was 5'10", Joshua is 6' 5-6".

Despite the difference in their physiques, Usyk has similarities to Ruiz, Joshua's last opponent  - not tall, fast hands, and good technique. In the rematch against Ruiz, Joshua showed he could box patiently against such a speedster - keeping him at range and using the jab, Klitschko style. Usyk has won his two Heavyweight fights - Chaz Weatherspoon and Chisora  - but while he never looked liked losing, he was not convincing.  I wouldn't bet any money on it (and I find Usyk quite engaging "I am very....feel"), but I think a non-washed, genuine "Super Heavyweight" will be an unpleasant surprise for him - weight divisions exist for a a reason.

Can we have a boxing thread? I agree with Moose; Usyk is a great fighter and was a quality cruiserweight but Joshua is not the blundering bodybuilder people caricature him as. He can box, and he is massive compared to Usyk. I wouldn't rule Usyk out, but he's going to have to box brilliantly to beat Joshua I think, eventually the heavy artillery will make itself felt. Also can't see AJ tiring as Liam predicts, he should be able to control the centre of the ring and do a fraction of the dancing Usyk will have to. Usyk looked good against his previous opponents but they were hardly in Joshua's class and he looked uncertain at times against Chisora and even Bellew down at cruiser. Great fight though.

[User deactivated.]

Nibile: Usyk KO 11 for my money

Do you mean Usyk wins by ko or loses by ko?

I reckon Joshua will win by TKO.  Usyk is the better boxer, pound for pound (that Papa Lomachenko training) but he is a natural Cruiserweight and Joshua is a biiiiggggg Heavyweight.  Evander Holyfield might have bridged that gap in the past but he was probably 'roided (see the "Evan Fields" Balco controversy).  And, he faced smaller Heavyweights - Tyson for all his ability and viciousness was 5'10", Joshua is 6' 5-6".

Despite the difference in their physiques, Usyk has similarities to Ruiz, Joshua's last opponent  - not tall, fast hands, and good technique. In the rematch against Ruiz, Joshua showed he could box patiently against such a speedster - keeping him at range and using the jab, Klitschko style. Usyk has won his two Heavyweight fights - Chaz Weatherspoon and Chisora  - but while he never looked liked losing, he was not convincing.  I wouldn't bet any money on it (and I find Usyk quite engaging "I am very....feel"), but I think a non-washed, genuine "Super Heavyweight" will be an unpleasant surprise for him - weight divisions exist for a a reason.

Can we have a boxing thread? I agree with Moose; Usyk is a great fighter and was a quality cruiserweight but Joshua is not the blundering bodybuilder people caricature him as. He can box, and he is massive compared to Usyk. I wouldn't rule Usyk out, but he's going to have to box brilliantly to beat Joshua I think, eventually the heavy artillery will make itself felt. Also can't see AJ tiring as Liam predicts, he should be able to control the centre of the ring and do a fraction of the dancing Usyk will have to. Usyk looked good against his previous opponents but they were hardly in Joshua's class and he looked uncertain at times against Chisora and even Bellew down at cruiser. Great fight though.

I see claims that Joshua's advantages are too much to overcome, but I see Usyk as having most of the advantages. Joshua has the size and strength (and house fighter 'advantages'), but Usyk has:

Ring IQ
Workrate and stamina
Southpaw
Footspeed
Angles
Offensive footwork (I think this is his key assett in this fight, applying mental pressure with his feet)
Accuracy
Ability to go through the gears and switch between plan A, B and C on the fly.
Confidence of not yet knowing defeat.

Hand speed is more or less even I think, Joshua's handspeed is underrated. Conversely, I think Joshua's power is a bit overrated. Go through his highlights and there's a distinct lack of proper knockouts, just lots of referee stoppages. It's certainly not wilder power! I'm not entirely convinced Joshua punches any harder than Chisora (look at their common opponent in Takam, whom chisora flat lined). Joshua is more skilled than people think and that's why he's a very good fighter, rather than his power, which is good but not extraordinary.

Don't get me wrong, this is a close fight where I only slightly favour usyk. If Joshua wins I dont think it will be down to his 3 inch height advantage or 20lb weight advantage, but it will be due to a continually improving Joshua who has added more tools to his game. It also helps that Joshua is already 4 rounds up on Howard Fosters card (lovely new porsche on his drive).

Proper excited! Usyk puts in a career best performance, goes up the gears in the 2nd half of the fight, bamboozles a tiring Joshua with angles and footwork, keeps upping the work rate and lands on those glass temples in the 11th 

[spidermonkey09]

Interesting post- although I think a lot of it is at least arguable. The concept of a one punch knockout is attractive but not really that common when I think about it. Wilder has that power for sure, and the Whyte knockout of Chisora comes to mind, but I don't think its that common. When you combine that rarity with the growing and correct trend of referees stopping fights before someone gets knocked unconscious, I don't think there is much unusual in AJ having no spectacular knockouts on his record. I take your point re Takam, with the proviso that Takam was a year further down the track by the time he fought Chisora (and probably should have won that fight well before Chisora sparked him). Also, Joshua's performance against Povetkin looked excellent in hindsight after Povetkin dealt with Whyte easily in their first fight. Obviously its all opinion, but hes clearly got power even if it isn't Wilder power.

Interesting that Joshua has weighed in reasonably light. By contrast Povetkin looks a bit flabby. To me thats the difference between a proper heavyweight who can tailor his weight accordingly because he is comfortable there, compared to a natural cruiser who has to bulk up to get there.

Also, I think your analysis rests on the assumption that Usyk won't be adversely affected by moving beyond his comfortable weight. Will his speed, workrate, stamina etc hold when fighting a good fighter as opposed to aging wash ups, someone who can hurt him and also move fast? We will see; I'd definitely have my last tenner on Joshua though! 

Incidentally you can get 75/1 for Usyk in R11 - good price!

[moose]

Couple of round table articles - predictions by journalists and boxers etc - for your consideration. Overwhelming consensus is Joshua - size and "home cooking" of scorecards.

https://www.badlefthook.com/2021/9/24/22691178/joshua-vs-usyk-who-wins-fight-predictions-preview-how-watch-dazn-boxing-news-2021

https://www.ringtv.com/627231-fight-picks-anthony-joshua-vs-oleksandr-usyk/

[Nibile]

Good thread Moose!
I am extremely undecided, not being so competent, but my heart is 51% with Usyk. What a refreshing charachter he is for boxing!
His "I am very feel" reply is pure genius. Apart from that, he is a very educated guy, and he and AJ are giving a true class lesson at every press conference. Same for the face off and weigh in.
Canelo Alvarez, on the other hand, fell into a big trap during his first face off with Plant. He came out triumphantly but lost in image and professionality in my opinion. Ring wise, Plant is in for a big, big, help me say big, spanking.
He just scraped Canelo with three fingertips, then was immediately rewarded with a lightning fast left-right-left that left him completely puzzled. He tried to act, but it wasn't before he had two guys around him that he pretended to go towards Canelo. Sad show.
Going back to our big guys, I'm not sure there will be a stoppage.
If AJ is smart and keeps his cool, there will be a reply of Ruiz II, probably, although Ruiz went is massively out of shape and mind.
If they brawl, well anything can happen but I think AJ could go down, Usyk is mentally stronger and probably more accurate punch wise.
Let's not forget that the same power applied to different body parts does different damages. The way Usyk pinpointed Bellew chin for the ko is quite impressive.

[Nibile]

A final note, just personal taste: I'd like a lot more to watch an unbeaten, dominant Usyk in a lighter class than a good Usyk in heavyweights with a few losses.
I understand that the big checks are in heavyweights (Canelo apart, since Pacquiao retired), and that you gotta pay them bills.

[moose]

I suspect the chances of Usyk getting a decision have decreased. 

Campbell Hatton (Ricky's son) just got a points win, despite probably losing 5-1 on rounds - boos from a (British) crowd during then post-fight interview. Even the Sky pundits, who are usually very biased to the "home" fighter, were saying it was the wrong result. I just hope Castillo got well paid for his complicity.

[spidermonkey09]

Great call Liam!

[DAVETHOMAS90]

Man, that hurt.
That really hurt.


.. You were saying Lore

[moose]

Well, that was a surprise...

Though my biggest shock was the post fight appearance of Lomachenno - bucket hat and facial hair,  I thought it was a Gallagher brother at a 00s Glasto!

[spidermonkey09]

Hope you had some money on that Liam, went almost exactly as you thought! AJ just never seemed to let the right hand go, comprehensively out boxed from start to finish by the better man.

[User deactivated.]

I've got to be honest, nerves had me wavering on my prediction leading up to the fight, but as soon as Usyk stepped into the ring, I knew it was on! He had the same psychopathic look in his eyes that he had the last time he fought a true killer in Murat Gassiev.

If you watch back his cruiserweight run and the blistering pace he set, and consider that he did the same tonight, at 34 in a weight class he shouldn't be fighting in, it's clear as day that he wasn't trying in his previous professional Heavyweight fights, or his fight with Bellew. They were never a threat.

Olympic gold at Heavyweight
World Series Boxing gold medalist at Heavyweight
Undisputed cruiserweight champion winning all his belts on the road in a stacked division.
Unified champion at Heavyweight again winning on the road against the face of the sport.

He's cemented his legacy tonight as an all time great.

[Nibile]

Mamma mia Usyk!!!

[Nibile]

Going through lots of Usyk videos on YouTube, I sincerely can't have enough of him at the moment.
Bigger than life.
Edit:
this picture.
https://images.app.goo.gl/xT1BxV6Jwhn1o2kG7

[Nibile]

Fury vs Wilder III this weekend...
 

[User deactivated.]

The trilogy fight is next weekend on the 9th October. I predict a similar outcome to the 2nd bout but I think it lasts a few more rounds this time.

[Nibile]

 
It looks like I'm ahead of my times.

[DAVETHOMAS90]

For anyone that's interested in how matched betting works, Sky have odds boosted to 2.0 (decimal) on Fury to win, which you can correspondingly sell on a betting exchange at 1.44, for a guaranteed lock in profit of £3.89 on a £10 pound bet.

Just enough for a cheap bottle of plonk to enjoy in the run up 

[Nibile]

I have no idea what you're talking about.
But tension is rising... They even failed to have a proper face-off...
Well, Fury was denied his face-off by the organizers.

[DAVETHOMAS90]

Lore, I do a bit of "matched betting"  - see "Owt fer Nowt".
You sort of "buy" and "sell" corresponding bets for a guaranteed profit. Adds an extra level of entertainment and intrigue.

Events like this are of course very big money gigs.

I enjoyed this interview, Fury and Neville.



Mods, let me know if there's a problem linking to this sort of thing.

 

This fight is the spectacle, but regardless of result the Joshua/Usyk rumble was so good for boxing in the class exhibited by both 

[Nibile]

It. Was. Epic.

[User deactivated.]

Sensational performance. Fury is an all time great Heavyweight in my opinion, and it's reasonable to suggest he would have been a problem in any past era.

He's a great boxer and he's also a great fighter. After getting clipped fury only knows how to bite down on his gumshield and fight back harder. Until recently I've thought his only weakness to be his offense, but over recent fights he's removed  any doubt there too. Great all round and a massive beast of a man!