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There’s a bloke fighting this weekend

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spidermonkey09:
Interesting post- although I think a lot of it is at least arguable. The concept of a one punch knockout is attractive but not really that common when I think about it. Wilder has that power for sure, and the Whyte knockout of Chisora comes to mind, but I don't think its that common. When you combine that rarity with the growing and correct trend of referees stopping fights before someone gets knocked unconscious, I don't think there is much unusual in AJ having no spectacular knockouts on his record. I take your point re Takam, with the proviso that Takam was a year further down the track by the time he fought Chisora (and probably should have won that fight well before Chisora sparked him). Also, Joshua's performance against Povetkin looked excellent in hindsight after Povetkin dealt with Whyte easily in their first fight. Obviously its all opinion, but hes clearly got power even if it isn't Wilder power.

Interesting that Joshua has weighed in reasonably light. By contrast Povetkin looks a bit flabby. To me thats the difference between a proper heavyweight who can tailor his weight accordingly because he is comfortable there, compared to a natural cruiser who has to bulk up to get there.

Also, I think your analysis rests on the assumption that Usyk won't be adversely affected by moving beyond his comfortable weight. Will his speed, workrate, stamina etc hold when fighting a good fighter as opposed to aging wash ups, someone who can hurt him and also move fast? We will see; I'd definitely have my last tenner on Joshua though!  :boxing:

Incidentally you can get 75/1 for Usyk in R11 - good price!

moose:
Couple of round table articles - predictions by journalists and boxers etc - for your consideration. Overwhelming consensus is Joshua - size and "home cooking" of scorecards.

https://www.badlefthook.com/2021/9/24/22691178/joshua-vs-usyk-who-wins-fight-predictions-preview-how-watch-dazn-boxing-news-2021

https://www.ringtv.com/627231-fight-picks-anthony-joshua-vs-oleksandr-usyk/

Nibile:
Good thread Moose!
I am extremely undecided, not being so competent, but my heart is 51% with Usyk. What a refreshing charachter he is for boxing!
His "I am very feel" reply is pure genius. Apart from that, he is a very educated guy, and he and AJ are giving a true class lesson at every press conference. Same for the face off and weigh in.
Canelo Alvarez, on the other hand, fell into a big trap during his first face off with Plant. He came out triumphantly but lost in image and professionality in my opinion. Ring wise, Plant is in for a big, big, help me say big, spanking.
He just scraped Canelo with three fingertips, then was immediately rewarded with a lightning fast left-right-left that left him completely puzzled. He tried to act, but it wasn't before he had two guys around him that he pretended to go towards Canelo. Sad show.
Going back to our big guys, I'm not sure there will be a stoppage.
If AJ is smart and keeps his cool, there will be a reply of Ruiz II, probably, although Ruiz went is massively out of shape and mind.
If they brawl, well anything can happen but I think AJ could go down, Usyk is mentally stronger and probably more accurate punch wise.
Let's not forget that the same power applied to different body parts does different damages. The way Usyk pinpointed Bellew chin for the ko is quite impressive.

Nibile:
A final note, just personal taste: I'd like a lot more to watch an unbeaten, dominant Usyk in a lighter class than a good Usyk in heavyweights with a few losses.
I understand that the big checks are in heavyweights (Canelo apart, since Pacquiao retired), and that you gotta pay them bills.

moose:
I suspect the chances of Usyk getting a decision have decreased. 

Campbell Hatton (Ricky's son) just got a points win, despite probably losing 5-1 on rounds - boos from a (British) crowd during then post-fight interview. Even the Sky pundits, who are usually very biased to the "home" fighter, were saying it was the wrong result. I just hope Castillo got well paid for his complicity.

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