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Anyone not got your jab yet? Got concerns? Not got round to it? (Read 7394 times)

petejh

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As an aside and slightly off-topic, this reminds me of reading up on longevity (related to pension forecasting) and discovering that you have to be careful with how you interpret the life 'average' expectancy and careful which data you take from the ONS tables. This is because they're cumulative. I.E. the life expectancy figure at birth is heavily skewed lower by all the people who'll die early along the way. Also they take account of people older than you, who were born when life expectancies were lower (generally life expectancy has improved over time.. austerity genocide claims notwithstanding).You need to calculate life expectancy at your current age, not from birth. For e.g. the average remaining life years at age 40 has already discounted the 'early unfortunate deaths' who didn't make it to age 40, and is far higher than the supposed 'average age' from birth. It's a moving average.

So need to be cautious using risk of dying and ONS life expectancies. (not saying Nutty's calcs are incorrect btw, and I agree with the sentiment. Just saying check what the figures are based on)

Explanation here: https://monevator.com/why-your-life-expectancy-is-much-longer-than-you-think/
Quote
Life expectancy: how long have I got?
The obvious way to guesstimate the length of your mortal coil is by using national life expectancy data. But if you simply google Ďaverage UK life expectancyí then youíll seriously underestimate your longevity risk.

Average life expectancy for males is currently 79.2 years. Females clock in at 82.9. But those headline stats do not squarely site you within swiping distance of Deathís scythe.

You can check how off-beam they could be for you by using the life expectancy calculator provided by The Office Of National Statistics (ONS).

If I type in my current age and sex then my average life expectancy is 85 Ė or 88 if I switch to being a woman.

Iím already up six years versus the UK male average of 79.2. Go me.

This happens because my personal statistic eliminates all the older people who are closer to Heavenís Gate than me. Lifespans are expected to improve over time. My life expectancy would be 87 if I was 20 years younger and hoping to cash in on improved medical treatment, gene therapy, or artery-cleaning nanobots.

My chances of making my average life expectancy are higher than 50%, as you can see in the chart.

Iíve got a 25% shot of reaching age 94. I donít fancy running the risk of going broke any earlier than that when the odds are so high.

Iíll even see my 99th birthday in one out of 10 possible futures.

From a planning perspective, 10% seems like a reasonable cut-off point. Iím prepared to take the risk of making it to a telegram from Her Maj without a penny left in my pot. That means I should plan for an estimated lifespan of more than 50 years if I retire today.

But Iím not retiring today. Moreover, todayís 65-year-old male is expected to live on average to age 86. Thatís higher than my average of 85 even though Iím 20 years younger!

What gives? Was yesterdayís model male made of tougher stuff?

Well, the 65-year-old has already ducked the misfortune that can take out anyone at a younger age. By virtue of surviving to any given age, you patently havenít died earlier.

In everyday life that goes without saying Ė I never congratulated grandma on her persistence. But it does matter in the average lifespan game.

The headline UK life expectancy figure measures death rates from birth. Therefore itís lowered by everyone who fell at the earlier hurdles. By the time youíre 25, 65, or 102, that Ďfrom birthí number is less and less relevant. Itís the average mortality data for your current age cohort that tells you more about your chances later in the race.

A quick tap into the calculator tells us that todayís 100-year-old is expected to make 102. They have a 25% chance of celebrating 103.










« Last Edit: July 22, 2021, 01:12:43 pm by petejh »

ben

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So your normal risk of death in a year if you're 25-34 is 0.054% (I've averaged this across men and women, though the risk to men (~0.08%) is about double that to women in this age range (~0.04%)). Infection Fatality Rate is estimated to be 0.04% for 25-29, so again if you assume infection will occur within a year, covid risk is pretty similar to the overall risk in a normal year. Vaccination would reduce the covid risk by 95% to 0.002%.
Thanks Nutty!

galpinos

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For e.g. the average remaining life years at age 40 has already discounted the 'early unfortunate deaths' who didn't make it to age 40, and is far higher than the supposed 'average age' from birth. It's a moving average.

You are spot on here Pete. That's the issue with the "it only kills 80yos, they are about to die anyway" rhetoric. If you are 80, your life expectancy is 89/90 with a 25% chance of making 93/94 (male/female).

andy popp

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This guy's not worried. Seen in line at the vaccination centre this afternoon.


slab_happy

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I respect the style there.

slab_happy

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FWIW, I think one of the most useful things I've done in this whole mess has been to say (and give friends permission to pass on to their friends): "Okay, I'm a massive nerd who's been up to my ears reading up on the vaccine research; if you have particular concerns or worries, just let me know what they are and I will try to come back to you with info."

(And then try very very hard to make sure I don't ever sound dismissive or pressure-y in how I lay out the info and explanations.)

The people who've already made up their minds won't bite, of course. But I think I've managed to reassure at least one hesitant person.

Oldmanmatt

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Although I didnít know this man, I have a surprising number of friends and acquaintances that fit his profile very well.
Quite a few of my life long friends have hit middle age and opted to fight it with exercise and nutrition. I think weíre far, far healthier, strong and active than our fathers were at this age, but too many seem to think ďliving healthyĒ makes them invulnerable:

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-fit-and-healthy-man-42-killed-by-coronavirus-regretted-refusing-vaccine-as-sister-issues-misinformation-warning-12373389

Wellsy

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I don't understand why people think getting the jab is going to be worse than getting the rona.

Like... whatever your physical situation. Its not get the jab or get nothing. It's get the jab or catch coronavirus without a vaccination against it. That's... obviously much worse?

slab_happy

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Yeah, "health" has a lot of meanings, and there's a real danger that people conflate "overall physical fitness" with "immune system's ability to fight off a novel virus it has no previous exposure to and doesn't know how to fight".

It looks like one of the things that can contribute to very severe Covid is a cytokine storm, where the immune response goes wildly into overdrive and produces massive inflammation (which is believed to be one of the things that made the 1918 flu so lethal, and why it killed so many young adults).

Being able to climb a mountain or run a marathon is not going to do much to protect you from that, any more than they'd protect you from, say, getting anaphylactic shock from something you're severely allergic to.

You're in good shape and have a strong immune system, great! Give it a fair chance by giving it a preview of what it'll have to fight off so it can learn what to do (and how not to panic and go into overdrive)! That is literally how vaccines work!

slab_happy

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A fifth of hospital admissions at the moment are 18-34:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58095503

The skew is going to be partly because older age-groups have much higher levels of full vaccination, but it's proof that Covid can still hit young people very hard. And there are a lot of very tired, traumatized doctors who are now having to watch patients the same as themselves or younger dying unnecessarily.

https://twitter.com/apnoeaboy/status/1415020567342862337
https://twitter.com/apnoeaboy/status/1420321794951630850
https://twitter.com/seahorse4000/status/1416152941346627585

slab_happy

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And, in response to people trying to claim Mr Eyers is some freak outlier:

https://twitter.com/seahorse4000/status/1423016636949409801

"Every ICU in the UK has these patients right now. "

ICNARC says mean age of critically ill patients in hospital with Covid is 49 (and mean for "invasively ventilated in the first 24 hours" is 49.7), which means a lot are going to be younger than that:

https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports

Aussiegav

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What ICNARC doesnít show is the % percentage of those treated in icu for Covid are obese.
Having worked through the pandemic in ICU, for what Iíve seen, those in the late 40ís & 50ís who have big pot bellies and sedantry lives suffer most.

Also in regards to your previous post, youíll find itís also  nursing staff that are being traumatised by the deaths and the lack of resources to care for people.

slab_happy

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True, didn't mean in any way to leave out the nursing staff, apologies!

Fiend

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Errr, slightly off-topic, but can you be temporarily re-named jab_happy whilst this is going on  ;D

lagerstarfish

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Errr, slightly off-topic, but can you be temporarily re-named jab_happy whilst this is going on  ;D

 :agree:

slab_happy

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Awwww, you guys say the nicest things!  :lol:

Fiend

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62548336 this should annoy the anti-vaxxers, which is an added bonus.

slab_happy

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Yeah, it's very cool, though obviously it means we're still playing catch-up with the variants as they come along, which isn't ideal.

Nice round-up of potential next big steps in vaccine research: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/15/from-nasal-vaccines-to-pills-the-next-defences-against-covid

 

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