[webbo]

So Uran needs to be lucky to win. Which was my point really I don’t think he’s got it to make the top step without others crashing, getting ill or having mechanicals.

[wasbeen]

On the doping, I have some some reasons to think this time it might be different.

It seems strange to say for such an established sport as cycling, till now, it has been luddite in its approach to training. Previously cyclists did 1000s miles of a year with very little structured training - indeed much of the training was through racing. The doping in the peloton may well have delayed the transition to purposeful training, as the effects of doping masked the marginal effects of structured training. The only cyclists who did structured training (i.e. short intervals) were track cyclists - however the transition from (probably clean) track racing to (doped) road cycling was nigh on impossible without doping. Obree's autobiography illustrates this very well.

It is by no accident that the new wave of cyclists come from a cyclocross background. The intensity of cyclocross racing is off the scale, the training involves lots of intervals, it is a full body workout - running, core, bike handling. It is to road riding what bouldering is to routes - an accelerated training simulator. Zwift has now not only brought intervals to the masses but also to the top end.

I predict, the next wave of cyclists will be pale shadows coming out of garages and man caves. Again, Obree was decades ahead of the curve with his dedication to turbo training. 
 

[moose]

There's a piece in the Guardian on the new generation of cyclocross trained racers, blowing traditional tactics apart:

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2021/jul/11/cyclo-cross-alaphilippe-van-der-poel-van-aert-tour-de-france-cycling

[Offwidth]

So Uran needs to be lucky to win. Which was my point really I don’t think he’s got it to make the top step without others crashing, getting ill or having mechanicals.

The winners all had their own share of luck as well as ability. A few who did win seem to me to be no better than Uran: Aru and especially Geoghan-Hart spring to mind.

On the subject of luck, watching the Tour this year was pretty shocking for the first week. I really think they need to review a whole series of factors to cut peloton crash risks, and so far they have only really belated made a few sensible minor adjustments. In particular having a neutralised time on a good bit of road, typically further out than 3km, seems very important with the increasing fashion of GC teams staying up front to keep their leader safe (mix that with a complex finish before 3km and risks get very high).

[TobyD]

I hope Cav bags the record today.  He seems to have always been a bit of an anomaly,  his performance exceeding his numbers and having an atypical body type for a sprinter according to articles I've read. 

[DAVETHOMAS90]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/sport/2021/jul/18/comeback-kid-mark-cavendish-poised-to-join-tour-de-france-immortals

I thought Merckx comments earlier were ill judged - "We don't compare.." etc, referring Cavendish winning stages with only the last 6 seconds on the front etc.

[teestub]

Merckx does have a point though right, his stage wins came in a lot shorter period, and also involved winning the GC at the same time. What Cav has achieved is remarkable, particularly his longevity obviously.

[DAVETHOMAS90]

13km to go!

Yes, he does, and Cav doesn't want the comparison.
To take anything away from his achievements would be wrong though, and yes, amazing to have been able to step up again.

I hope he doesn't put too much emphasis on getting number 35 today.

[Plattsy]

A bit of a shame for Cav. Made a mistake leaving Mørkøv's wheel and then found himself penned in by a couple of Belgiums.

Maybe the result was a bit of karma for his behaviour towards a mechanic the other day.

[teestub]

I think Cav from a few years ago would have taken that small gap down the barrier with his elbows out, but reckon he made the best decision yesterday! Would have been interesting to see the result if he’d stayed with his man, Jumbo Visma looked fast.

Big up to Van Aert too, Ventoux, TT and Champs is a hell of a Tour.

[Will Hunt]

No icing on the cake, but it's a pretty spectacular cake. In fact, I'd say we've got a well iced cake but without the sprinkles.