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Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !! (Read 39480 times)

Fultonius

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#25 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 27, 2021, 04:27:02 pm

I think batteries are only a stop gap for a couple of decades till hydrogen fuel cells come on line, which are essentially clean batteries.  The electric motor tech in the vehicles will stay the same.  Think this topic has been covered elsewhere maybe?

I'm not so sure it'll be a stop gap - I suspect when people get used to being able to warm their cars up in winter / demist etc and basically never have to go fill up except on long journies, the through of going back to hydrocarbons hydrogen may feel like a step back. Also, hydrogen can only be produced via electrolysis or processing natural gas which both introduce inefficacies - electric charging I suspect will win out on cost. New battery tech is such a hotbed of activity just now, I suspect a low impact, highly recyclable and more energy dense battery tech is only a few rounds of innovation away.

Add to that contactless charging (sitting at lights, maybe some motorways) and I think hydrogen will be consigned to being a vector for storing / transporting energy for other sources (islands can use it for ferries, household heating).

I may be wrong, as it's basically a tech race so it's always unpredictable.

Back to the cars - the new Hyundai Ioniq 5 sounds pretty good if driving dynamics aren't a high priority (not that it's bad, just not a selling point). 

I'm itching to go electric, but we're just going to have to nurse our 23yr old VW oil burner van a few more years!

chris j

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#26 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 27, 2021, 04:45:43 pm

My take is this is being overstated though and unfounded claims are being widely reported. For example, the claim that EVs need to be driven 50,000 miles before they are cleaner than ICE vehicles, reported in the UK press last year, was concocted by a motor-industry think tank.

Volvo did an assessment last year comparing their electric and petrol versions of their XC40.

https://group.volvocars.com/news/sustainability/2020/~/media/ccs/Volvo_carbonfootprintreport.pdf

The takeaway being that the mix of power generation for the electricity matters immensely - use entirely green electricity and the break even is around 47000km, use the global average carbon footprint for electricity generation and the break even is closer to 150000km.

Initial carbon footprint for manufacturing was around 50% higher for the electric model at ~26 tonnes CO2 vs 17 tonnes CO2 for the petrol car.

Catcheemonkey

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#27 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 27, 2021, 05:24:21 pm
Initial carbon footprint for manufacturing was around 50% higher for the electric model at ~26 tonnes CO2 vs 17 tonnes CO2 for the petrol car.

Interesting. In all the scenarios that Volvo lay out the EV has lower lifetime CO2 emissions, and if only charged with renewable power the total carbon footprint is less than half that of the ICE vehicle.

And this is at an early stage in the development of these vehicles - I'd expect emissions to reduce as manufacturing and material production processes mature.
« Last Edit: April 27, 2021, 05:36:44 pm by Catcheemonkey »

carlisle slapper

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#28 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 27, 2021, 05:32:20 pm
Hey Paul I've had a Model S for a couple of years now and have done 30K miles in it. Also have relatives with a Kia Eniro and Model 3 so thought i'd bullet point some key points that might help. Nice to see so many people on here with Ev's already

[url]https://ev-database.uk[url] is a great place to base/ start your searches and to cross compare

A: Depreciation isnt a worry if you dont buy something crap. It was terrible in the Old 60mile leafs but those were first adopters who also got free charging everywhere. Basically if you get something that does 200miles and charges at 50-100kw DC then that'll always be a useful car. If you look at second hand cars that're desirable like the Model S and 3 in the UK they hold their value incredibly well (and thats in spite of shite build quality). more info here: https://www.drive-electric.co.uk/do-electric-cars-depreciate/
Don't buy a model 3 if you want to put anything in the boot ever. General gist for all Teslas upto the Y is crap build quality but amazing tech and charge network.

B: All electric is already a far better option than any hybrid if they can fast charge.
C: Cars with >250miles range just end up not being fully charged 90% of the time and all you ever gain is the home charge advantage as once your on the road its the charge speed that is the real limiting factor.

C: The national grid in the UK is doing really well despite the government policy doing the opposite of incentivising it on a green path, market forces are doing the job well enough. Their ESO app is a great way to quickly check up on how green your charge is: https://www.nationalgrideso.com/news/introducing-our-carbon-intensity-app Basically if you live in the north west or north east england most of your charging will be >80% renewables year round. Yorkshire and the home counties arent great at the moment so Home solar or something would be more of a short term fix for that

D: All good home chargers can be scheduled to charge with green tarriffs off peak so whilst some cars do and dont have the option its not a worry and you can often get paid to charge. Glyn Hudson has done some good info tweets on his Nissan Van on the octopus tarriff.

It really is a case by case basis at the moment for how Green your electric car is based on where you live but the National grid is improving this all the time. One good example is the New connections being planned to bring the hugely renewable scottish grid power down to more of the population: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/16/firms-agree-scotland-to-england-renewable-energy-superhighway

Looking at your description I'd be looking at the BMWs you've mentioned VW ID3/4. Honda E (just cos its cool) Kia eniro and hyundai Kona (most efficient per mile and v reliable) Or Tesla Model 3 or if you can wait the Y Fully Charged on Youtube is a good place to watch reviews and get up to speed.


chris j

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#29 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 27, 2021, 06:11:57 pm

Interesting. In all the scenarios that Volvo lay out the EV has lower lifetime CO2 emissions, and if only charged with renewable power the total carbon footprint is less than half that of the ICE vehicle.


Yes, I don't know if they chose the 200,000km overall lifetime because that is a typical lifetime usage for their cars or because at that point all three scenarios were tipped in favour of the electric.

Obviously it depends how long you keep your cars and the mileage you do and if you typically buy new but for my lower than average usage (66000 miles over 10 years in the Skoda) it's finely balanced environmentally whether to carry on my habit of buying 2nd hand petrol vs a new electric. With a higher mileage the balance (& financially the increased savings in fuel cost if you charge at home) would tilt towards electric.

tomtom

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#30 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 27, 2021, 06:59:22 pm
The compelling reason - especially if you live or drive in a city - is the massive reduction in air pollution from an EV.


unclesomebody

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#31 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 28, 2021, 03:34:56 pm
I run a couple of electric vehicles and in the last 7 months have done 220,000 miles. So I have a bit of knowledge about EV technology nowadays although still have plenty of gaps in the consumer space. I don't have much knowledge on specific models and their pros/cons but I do have some ideas on the technology in general.

Hydrogen:
Hydrogen cars - this is already dead in the water. The development has been dropped by major car brands as they plough all of their R&D into battery technology. The only major brand still chasing hydrogen is Toyota and I would happily take a bet that in 5 years Hydrogen in consumer cars will be a footnote. Hydrogen vehicles (not just cars) are still really, really inefficient. Without a green grid, hydrogen vehicles are actually worse than diesel in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. I have some charts on this published by Zemo but can't be arsed to try and post them - sorry. With a green grid (which is happening) then they are better than diesel but still so much worse from an efficiency perspective of total energy in vs total energy out.

The thing to look at when comparing technologies is the well to wheel CO2e emissions. On this basis, EV's are well ahead of the pack. You can look up some charts or I can post some up at some point if people are keen.

Where hydrogen does have a useful part to play is in storage (as mentioned by Fultonius), especially where this is done on site and it's linked to excess grid capacity from green sources. In that case it makes sense to use this rather than massive stockpiles of batteries. I'm also a fan of gravity systems being used in the same way and if you haven't seen them check out: https://energyvault.com/

There is a lot of talk that "long range" vehicles like coach/HGV will switch to Hydrogen but the evidence just isn't there. Scania recently binned plans to develop hydrogen and has gone all in on EV's. Hydrogen vehicle production is currently propped up by massive subsidies in the UK.

Hybrids - same as hydrogen. Now dead in the water imo and I wouldn't go near one as a new car purchase. I think they might have fulfilled a function as a soft way to get people thinking about electric before the technology came onstream, but ultimately Tesla went all in on EV early and got a huge advantage as a result.

Battery technology:
This is improving all the time and there hasn't been much of a discussion on chemistries. The amount of "bad" stuff in a battery does change quite a bit with different chemistries. Tesla recently started using LFP (lithium iron phosphate) in model 3 production instead of Li-ion. It's not as energy dense but does have a longer life and doesn't have nickel or cobalt.

I agree with the person who mentioned that a breakthrough is probably only a few rounds of innovation away. At which point we'll have more density and higher charging speeds.

Charging speeds:
At the moment it's largely limited by physics and battery life. Not the voltage/amp that can go into a battery. As well as running electric vehicles I've also been building charging hubs and installing 300kW chargers. These can deliver 300kW on a single cable although the CCS standard is ever so slightly behind so no vehicles can take it just yet.

Charging curves aren't mentioned that much but most electric cars only have a narrow-ish window where they charge at full speed. They might be generally fast at 20-80% but full speed will usually be a segment of that. However, when you start to talk about 300kW charging, you need to remember that cars generally only have up to 120kWh battery packs. You also need to know that a 120kWh battery pack can get you a long way in an aerodynamic car. So if you can charge from 20-80% in 10min and that 80% will do you 400 miles then I think the problem is getting close to solved. For larger vehicles, like coach/HGV, there is talk about charging faster than 350kW but this is currently limited by standards (CCS theoretically allows 500kW charging) and it's easier to charge bigger batteries very fast.

Battery life isn't a concern for car users imo. There were loads of problems with early nissan leafs which was largely due to a lack of cooling and gen 1 tech. Things have moved on. We're looking at getting 800,000 miles from one set of batteries and after that we'll repurpose them into storage - they won't be anywhere near dead. I expect battery recycling will also come on a lot in the next 10 years, the big challenge now is lack of batteries to do it with.


If you're wondering how the above is at all possible then it's all based on my business www.ember.to  ;D Not easy to do >200,000 miles per year per vehicle unless you have a team of drivers!


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#32 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 28, 2021, 04:07:00 pm
Great  info, cheers.

And yes, 400 mile range from a 10 minute, 80% charge would be fantastic. TBH, 200 miles from 10 minutes would do me.

Paul B

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#33 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 28, 2021, 06:29:43 pm
Hey Paul I've had a Model S for a couple of years now

Wow, that's some change from coasting a Corsa!

I run a couple of electric vehicles and...

Thanks Uncle, I'll read and digest that post fully when work is slightly less hectic.

Fultonius

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#34 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 28, 2021, 07:16:51 pm


If you're wondering how the above is at all possible then it's all based on my business www.ember.to  ;D Not easy to do >200,000 miles per year per vehicle unless you have a team of drivers!

How come you started up in Scotland? Are you living up his way now? Great to know there's an e-bus. I'm originally from just outside Perth but live in Glasgow, so could use it for going up to see her. Edited due to actually reading it the second time and seeing Glasgow wasn't on the list! Great venture anyway  :beer2:

@Dan - how do you afford to run a Model S?  Is that just from BM, or do you have other business interests?

unclesomebody

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#35 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 28, 2021, 08:06:21 pm

How come you started up in Scotland? Are you living up his way now? Great to know there's an e-bus. I'm originally from just outside Perth but live in Glasgow, so could use it for going up to see her. Edited due to actually reading it the second time and seeing Glasgow wasn't on the list! Great venture anyway  :beer2:


A few reasons for Scotland but mainly because it's ahead of the rest of the UK in terms of climate goals wrt public transport.

We're launching more routes later in the year which will probably include Glasgow - Fort William. Will be nice to take bikes and people up there.

I'm up near Edinburgh now, mainly heading South to Northumberland for climbing. But it's all esoteric choss so I don't recommend it.

Fultonius

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#36 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 28, 2021, 08:26:09 pm
Would be amazing to see some of the MTB trial centres linked up by E-Bus. Seem mad in this day and age that we all rock up to venues in our own vehicles.

Great respect in getting something like this started.

carlisle slapper

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#37 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 28, 2021, 09:59:34 pm
@Fultonius. Basically i work a lot more than i climb nowadays but am still a dirtbag at heart in a cheap part of the country  Running costs are actually lower than any car i've ever had as we're saving £2-3000 per year on fuel and much of the expensive stuff on the car has warranties on. In fact if buying out right i dont know why anyone who could afford one would buy a new 3 over a pre 2018 second hand S unless they specifically wanted a small car and dont need boot space. As with the 8 year unlimited mileage warranty on the major parts, free premium connection and free supercharging for life the year on year benefits are formidable regardless of the size and spec difference (supercharging anywhere isn't cheap)

Some things to note when buying Ev's second hand are that battery degradation isnt a huge worry and actually cars with lower mileage might be in a worse degradation state if they've sat a few winters without frequent charging. Autotrader is still set up for ICE engines so EVs with higher milages still depreciate faster on there but you can play that curve and set money aside from the saving. Provided you do all the relevant history checks it might work out much better buying a car thats done 10K per year since it was made than one thats done 2-5K unless its been in a heated garage. Electric motors are one of humanitys more reliable inventions so trusting the lack of parts + 8year warranty on that does present a pretty unique opportunity to travel round the country for free for the life of the vehicle, as well as a strong incentive to keep it on the road  (https://electrek.co/2020/06/12/tesla-data-battery-degradation-limited-mileage-packs-equal/)
In Cumbria its easy to overnight charge at <100gm CO2 per Kw so it is a really green option and so was compelling to save up and make the switch (sellafield + lots of offshore wind)

I've got some funny stories from the past couple of years. As every other person i've seen with one is has been an over 50 beardy elderly Uni professor type, and all the model 3 chaps that appeared last year are young cool hipsters or nice families so we've been getting properly stared at with a big organic pad stuffed in the boot dressed in scruffy climbing togs. That and taking it off road upto some random forest crags and accomodation about the place, i like to think its a happy car for being saved a life of slow drives to posho restaurants and ritual weekend washes.

I still use all my Corsa coasting skills but its even more fun now as you get realtime energy use. 0.24 drag coefficient!

To add to Uncles quality info, Hydrogen is deemed as green, blue and grey in terms of source, whether green hydrogen kills flexible tariff charging from windfarms remains to be seen but it's likely to play a role only as a spare capacity producer, it's 4X more efficient to charge electric cars with that energy if the demands there. most current hydrogen is blue (eg. methane landfill) or grey (fossil) but it seems most likely to go into large transport (ferries, planes) at this time as well as >battery < pumped oxygen or hydro in terms of grid storage.

If you watched the market moving last year you could see all the legacy carmakers finally u turning their approaches and getting on board for fear of death by Tesla and there are now fantastic options appearing monthly. When i bought my car my only option for an EV that would fit a large pad in the boot (seats up) was literally an S or X!

If all else fails Paul just quietly mention your mother in laws generation will have overseen the greatest carbon use per person of any generation in the history of the planet, and thats why all those smirky "woke" kids have fallen out with the boomers https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-children-must-emit-eight-times-less-co2-than-their-grandparents


SA Chris

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#38 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 29, 2021, 11:54:25 am
We're launching more routes later in the year which will probably include Glasgow - Fort William. Will be nice to take bikes and people up there.

Extend to Aberdeen (or even just Stonehaven) and I'll be up for this. Well done for getting this up and running.

petejh

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#39 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 29, 2021, 06:54:43 pm
@Fultonius. Basically i work a lot more than i climb nowadays but am still a dirtbag at heart in a cheap part of the country  Running costs are actually lower than any car i've ever had as we're saving £2-3000 per year on fuel and much of the expensive stuff on the car has warranties on. In fact if buying out right i dont know why anyone who could afford one would buy a new 3 over a pre 2018 second hand S unless they specifically wanted a small car and dont need boot space. As with the 8 year unlimited mileage warranty on the major parts, free premium connection and free supercharging for life the year on year benefits are formidable regardless of the size and spec difference (supercharging anywhere isn't cheap)

Some things to note when buying Ev's second hand are that battery degradation isnt a huge worry and actually cars with lower mileage might be in a worse degradation state if they've sat a few winters without frequent charging. Autotrader is still set up for ICE engines so EVs with higher milages still depreciate faster on there but you can play that curve and set money aside from the saving. Provided you do all the relevant history checks it might work out much better buying a car thats done 10K per year since it was made than one thats done 2-5K unless its been in a heated garage. Electric motors are one of humanitys more reliable inventions so trusting the lack of parts + 8year warranty on that does present a pretty unique opportunity to travel round the country for free for the life of the vehicle, as well as a strong incentive to keep it on the road  (https://electrek.co/2020/06/12/tesla-data-battery-degradation-limited-mileage-packs-equal/)
In Cumbria its easy to overnight charge at <100gm CO2 per Kw so it is a really green option and so was compelling to save up and make the switch (sellafield + lots of offshore wind)

I've got some funny stories from the past couple of years. As every other person i've seen with one is has been an over 50 beardy elderly Uni professor type, and all the model 3 chaps that appeared last year are young cool hipsters or nice families so we've been getting properly stared at with a big organic pad stuffed in the boot dressed in scruffy climbing togs. That and taking it off road upto some random forest crags and accomodation about the place, i like to think its a happy car for being saved a life of slow drives to posho restaurants and ritual weekend washes.

I still use all my Corsa coasting skills but its even more fun now as you get realtime energy use. 0.24 drag coefficient!

To add to Uncles quality info, Hydrogen is deemed as green, blue and grey in terms of source, whether green hydrogen kills flexible tariff charging from windfarms remains to be seen but it's likely to play a role only as a spare capacity producer, it's 4X more efficient to charge electric cars with that energy if the demands there. most current hydrogen is blue (eg. methane landfill) or grey (fossil) but it seems most likely to go into large transport (ferries, planes) at this time as well as >battery < pumped oxygen or hydro in terms of grid storage.

If you watched the market moving last year you could see all the legacy carmakers finally u turning their approaches and getting on board for fear of death by Tesla and there are now fantastic options appearing monthly. When i bought my car my only option for an EV that would fit a large pad in the boot (seats up) was literally an S or X!

If all else fails Paul just quietly mention your mother in laws generation will have overseen the greatest carbon use per person of any generation in the history of the planet, and thats why all those smirky "woke" kids have fallen out with the boomers https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-children-must-emit-eight-times-less-co2-than-their-grandparents

I suspect the smirky millennials you mention would look a lot less smug if they had the raw figures on the resource and energy requirements, plus associated CO2 production, for comparison between the old world of ICE and the new world of EVs. Yes, EV's are a great step in the right direction but lets try to understand and acknowledge the actual relative impacts of driving around in an EV instead of a diesel. The extractive industries required to build out the mass-scale transition into electrification are highly energy intensive, as well as being currently somewhat questionable in terms of ESG.

Copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt, tin and aluminium are required in far greater quantities over the next 10 years then have historically been or are currently being mined. It's estimated by some analysts that at the predicted demand annual compound growth rate of 2.5 -3% we need a new Bise tin mine (in the DRC, in which I'm invested..) every year for the next 5 -10 years to meet demand from the electronics and automotive industries. The demand for copper required by electrification over the next 15 years is eye-watering, and will be met by many, many massive new mines opening in South America - some of which I'm again invested in! Various estimates exist but a typical EV requires 3.5 times as much copper as an ICE vehicle. That's just one metal. Consider the 30 kilograms of Nickel required in each battery of a Tesla model S long-range battery. Then there's the tin, the cobalt, the lithium, graphite etc etc. Roughly 4 times the cobalt and double the nickel (and likely to increase in next-gen batteries) required in an EV compared to an ICE vehicle. https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/copper-powering-up-the-electric-vehicle/

Some people claim that the extractive industries will clean up their act, and no doubt they will, but the fact remains that the Nickel, Tin and other metals required for the estimated 30 million EVs destined for European roads in the next 10 years will mostly originate from countries such as Brazil, the DRC, Indonesia, China. Tesla has agreed terms with a Nickel mine in the south Pacific for sole supply. The same supply chain issues that were found when people started looking behind the curtains of the explosion in use of mobile phones and PCs/laptops will likely be present behind the mass adoption of EVs. Regulations are being put in place now to guarantee origin of materials and prevent use of 'conflict metals', hopefully that will help prevent highly-polluting artisan mines in the Congo and the alluvial plains of Myanmar from being exploited by local warlords for profit.. but you know what people are like with regulations.. the good people of VW for example..
And the fact those regulations are required gives you a clue about the nature of some of the suppliers to the EV batteries industry.

This is a necessary step to get away from the old oil and gas paradigm, and no doubt the extractive and manufacturing industries will clean up and become a virtuous circle as their power generation turns to less carbon-intensive methods and recycling of battery metals - currently minuscule - starts to play a larger part. But we aren't at that place yet. I'd be willing to bet that your Tesla will probably not break even versus a typical Euro6 internal combustion engine car in terms of the total energy and resources required to build it. Unless you're willing to still be driving it into the ground many years from now. I suspect most people won't do that if history is a guide, disposability is the strong precedent here for vehicles and battery-powered devices.

On the subject of Tesla, they've done great things as a company to push along adoption of EVs, but as is often the case the reality is a bit different behind the green image portrayed. It should be noted that Tesla don't make any profit from their car sales.. It should also be noted that they just invested $1.5 billion into bitcoin mining in order to turn a profit - you know, that digital store of wealth (digital gold) that requires massively energy-intensive mining by Chinese bitcoin mining centres, which is responsible for as much CO2 annually as 'a medium sized country' according to some sources. And the other way Tesla don't go broke.. is by selling State of California carbon offset credits to polluting industries.

Roskill produces good sustainability reports on the battery metals extractive industries, and market outlook research for the range of battery metals. https://roskill.com/sustainability-cost-analysis/

I'm entirely optimistic about transport turning electric for the long-term good of the high atmosphere and of people's lungs; but I think as a society, including climbers who green-brag about their choice of vehicle, we'd be better off being realistic and open-eyed about the near-term impacts of our choices instead of feeling smug because our car's electric instead of diesel.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2021, 07:07:57 pm by petejh »

carlisle slapper

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#40 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 29, 2021, 10:09:44 pm
Good resource post Pete but one which is essentially already covered from a carbon perspective in the above links to when new Ev's pass ICE. Millennials/ Gen Z arent smug more bitter i'd say at being handed worse cards than their parents. Indeed Ev cars don't appear out of thin air. You forgot to mention Aluminium too depending on where in the world thats made it can be carbon neutral (iceland) or massively energy intensive. Everything has a cost but if you can be arsed to sit down and do the math it quickly becomes apparent that In areas of the UK with a green grid Ev's can pass keeping your current ICE car in sub 30K miles in terms of carbon cost.  diesel can never be clean and that in fact regardless of CO2 its been doing nasty things in our cities in terms of heavy metals and nitrates for many years now.
I'd be wary of extrapolating current battery solutions to world scale as with the steps on the way current resource calcs will vary wildly as the tech improves.
A good example is that if solid state comes in, its 50% smaller volumetric density+ much faster charging capacity will mean tiny 100 mile packs are possible as a realistic solution for city cars as well as less overall lithium use. Lithium required per mile has already dropped a huge amount in the last 5 years (hence the general decrese in wh per mile towards 250 from 300 due to the weight savings). Uncle already mentioned the switch to Lithium Iron phosphate in China.

Now i'm not going to say that disproves the case for nickel and cobalt use but it shows signs of change. Market forces will still just move the next contract into those areas and someone elses cars might have dirtier batteries, if consumers care they'll vote with their wallets. The Lithium mining in Bolivia involves sweating it off the salt pans in one of the most arid parts of the planet which is knacking the water table. Thankfully it looks like this will get phased out as new mines open up in different locations and extraction techniques change (covered in Teslas battery day)
The point here is that much of this is all a transition phase where people are proving the concept on the front end with the vehicles whilst trying to tackle the whole assembly/ resource gathering process to make it more efficient for both cost and carbon.
This is one of the best literature reviews in the area put into an article. https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-electric-vehicles-help-to-tackle-climate-change It shows in the USA how crucial area is both for EV manufacturing and PEV vs hybrid use.

The fact is that if these vehicles are made to last then almost your entire point seems to be around battery resource use, The rest of the vehicle can be completely interchanged with new battery tech so their green shelf life is much longer than an ICE car which has a lot more moving parts and less weatherproofing (hence how Ev's can drive through floods for a short time) due to the need for heat shedding whilst constantly burning fossil fuels. The question of what to do with old batteries is also beginning to be answered with start up companies repairing or rehoming them. It also seems a relatively unfounded worry as most Teslas (bar the 90) are showing only 5% degradation per 100,000km driven. My cars actually doing better than that so far and i have chatted to owners who are 150K miles + and doing great, average first brake pad change on a model S is >80K miles due to the Regen. If you link back to the carbon brief article local case studies up here really do royally shit on any ICE argument with a clean national grid in the area

Having sat down and actually done the stats along with based on my own driving and where i live(as Uncle does for his buses) its pretty bloody obvious that my purchase decision massively helps reduce emissions from my own selfish life choices.

Ultimately the whole "yeah but things use resources" point boils down to, dont own a car and dont go anywhere or use anything you dont grow yourself. EV's are just one small part of the carbon chain but they're a good flagship and change instigator as cars are something people pay attention to more than most belongings. All vehicles drive along roads paved with Oil so i'm well aware of the hypocrisy of poking the progress of past generations whilst using all that infrastructure to live. However i dont see that as a reason not to try and make positive changes where financially possible.

petejh

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#41 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 29, 2021, 10:36:57 pm
On the solid state battery, yep I'm invested in Ilika who have their Goliath SS battery at the point of tooling up a production line in partnership with a manufacturing partner, via the BIC which has been part funded by government as part of the Faraday challenge. Also Quantumscape are being funded by VW, for their SS battery. Both Ilika and Quatumscape have working designs requiring upscaling. Supposedly also Samsung are well advanced. I fully agree that ss batteries will be the big game-changer for EVs, that's why my money's in them!   (there's a theme here..)

On recycling. To balance out my above view of the growth in mining of battery and infrastructure metals required for the electrification of transport and other transformative technology, here's a more positive view on the potential for recycling. https://www.mining.com/recycled-metals-could-meet-a-significant-part-of-the-rising-demand-from-evs-report/

However note that its estimates for recycling reducing new demand for cobalt and nickel by 35% and of copper by 55% are for the year 2040. The early decades of this transformation into electric are still going to be extremely reliant on a large scale growth in the mining of metals.

The talk of emissions is only part of the point of EVs but I fully agree its great to reduce emissions from diesels. Lung health will improve. My point is more that there are increased unseen costs associated with EVs then perhaps there are with ICE vehicles. The mining goes on in places over the horizon from most consumers, like for your mobile phone and laptop. And a lot of people won't be aware of the CO2 footprint of the various mines and manufacturers on the other side of the world required to supply the relatively large quantities of metals for their battery and for all the electrical infrastructure surrounding EV use. Hence it's easy not to consider them when people think they're 'being green'. It's very easy for companies to gloss over with a green banner, like Tesla do, when in reality they're not really particularly virtuous in their choices.

Nonetheless, once past the first 10-15 years growing pains the issues will hopefully have improved to the point of EVs being genuinely low impact. 
« Last Edit: April 29, 2021, 11:03:43 pm by petejh »

AndyR

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#42 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 29, 2021, 11:04:58 pm

Now i'm not going to say that disproves the case for nickel and cobalt use but it shows signs of change. Market forces will still just move the next contract into those areas and someone elses cars might have dirtier batteries, if consumers care they'll vote with their wallets. The Lithium mining in Bolivia involves sweating it off the salt pans in one of the most arid parts of the planet which is knacking the water table. Thankfully it looks like this will get phased out as new mines open up in different locations and extraction techniques change (covered in Teslas battery day)
The
Interesting discussion. Note, there is no production of lithium from Bolivia - there is a small pilot facility and nothing else. I would also wager that there will be no meaningful production from the Uyuni salt flats within 1-2 decades. Not a great resource and a terrible ( I mean, absolutely awful) country to try and do business in. You are probably thinking of Chile and Argentina.
For what it’s worth I’ve been in the energy metals world since 2014,  so have seen these discussions come and go, and get to talk with cathode/battery/car manufacturers all the time. It is a rapidly changing world and money is piling in at the moment. Almost everyone we talk to is trying to eliminate cobalt from their cathode, and actually, every OEM we talk to (inc. Tesla) does care where they source raw materials from.

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#43 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 30, 2021, 11:35:53 am

A lot of these arguments fall under the "don't let perfect be the enemy of good" category.

I'm currently working and bidding on green hydrogen projects in the north west. The end game isn't hydrogen cars, though it is being tied into the Liverpool Hydrogen Bus scheme, but industrial users, blended into domestic gas as a stop gap, working with the industries that can't electrify, that 15% often talked about who are hard to de carbonise. It's a complex picture.

EVs aren't a golden bullet to end climate change. I don't think anyone believes that and until we move away from the fetishization of the private car and we are still stuffed. The "youth" seem to understand, especially a lot of those who live in cities, but the city leaders are still a long way behind the curve.

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#44 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 30, 2021, 01:35:11 pm
We have literally pretty much just impulse bought  an ID.4!
Went for a test drive and thought it was great, we’d kinda made the decision a while ago to go electric once the ranges became more practical.

Need to geek up on it all now (maybe should’ve geeked up before buying) what’s the home charger knowledge? Fast charge obvs, I’m aware of the govt grant. Any particular company’s/brands to avoid.

How are electric vehicles in snow? We normally have 4x4 as our road is fairly spicy and we get a fair bit of snow usually. Slightly worried about the amount of torque. It’s rear wheel drive with good clearance and the batteries in the back so I’m hoping it’ll be ok? We couldn’t bring ourselves to wait for the 4x4 version to come out. Hopefully we won’t regret that.....

Paul B

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#45 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 30, 2021, 02:00:04 pm
How are electric vehicles in snow? We normally have 4x4 as our road is fairly spicy and we get a fair bit of snow usually. Slightly worried about the amount of torque. It’s rear wheel drive with good clearance and the batteries in the back so I’m hoping it’ll be ok? We couldn’t bring ourselves to wait for the 4x4 version to come out. Hopefully we won’t regret that.....

You're not doing regular trips over past Widdop are you in a blue/green one (although I'd have expected more shit when passing if so)?

I'll make sure to have some  :popcorn: for next winter.

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#46 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 30, 2021, 02:10:27 pm
How are electric vehicles in snow? We normally have 4x4 as our road is fairly spicy and we get a fair bit of snow usually. Slightly worried about the amount of torque. It’s rear wheel drive with good clearance and the batteries in the back so I’m hoping it’ll be ok? We couldn’t bring ourselves to wait for the 4x4 version to come out. Hopefully we won’t regret that.....

You're not doing regular trips over past Widdop are you in a blue/green one (although I'd have expected more shit when passing if so)?

I'll make sure to have some  :popcorn: for next winter.

Nah not got it yet, we pick up next week. I’d defo be giving you shit! Maybe even a little nudge....

Yeah who knows in winter.... chains might be in order for our road.

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#47 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 30, 2021, 02:51:19 pm
NYob, perhaps Check whether it’s got a heat pump as standard. Might be worth getting one (1k extra on id3) as it’s more efficient for the cabin heater - and is also used to heat the battery pack in winter - to give more range (use energy to get more from the battery paradox!)

I’m seriously tempted by a Skoda Enjaq (Skoda badged id4)

northern yob

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#48 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 30, 2021, 03:23:01 pm
TT it’s a first edition (hence the good deal) so I’m pretty sure the heat pump isn’t an option. I don’t think it’s an option on the 2nd edition ones either in Europe, despite it being an option for the Id3 it has something they compare to a toaster element which heats it when driving. Electric resistance heater, which gets up to speed quicker. I’m not too worried about the range as a whole so hoping it won’t effect it too much, the reviews seem to be a bit split on this though....

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#49 Re: Cars, Cars, Electric CARS !!
April 30, 2021, 04:51:16 pm
Saw this the other day and thought it was interesting (don't know the original source). US states that charge an additional annual fee for owning an EV. Supposed to make up for lost tax revenue from declining sales of fuel.





It got me interested in looking into how the UK will cover the gap in revenue from lost sales of fuel. Do people think a tax per mile the most likely outcome? As per this report: https://thenextweb.com/news/mandatory-road-pricing-to-plug-uks-40bn-tax-gap-after-shift-to-evs

For EV owners the next few years before any new regs come in could be the cheapest window of opportunity for driving costs.




 

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