[JohnM]

Nissan will have to move battery manufacture to the UK from Japan so that over 55% of the vehicles' material value originates in the UK and they can still import to Europe tariff free. That might work for them but I can't see that working for all manufacturers hoping to stay competitive in tougher export market conditions. You can always find evidence of companies doing well in apparent market headwinds but the reality is that when you increase trade friction for small exporters they are likely to lose a significant part of their market or go under. Brexit is not and cannot be beneficial for them in anyway on average (some will compete to corner more of the domestic market and reclaim lost sales they originally made to the EU). The only way we can become more competitive after putting up trade barriers with our nearest and largest trading partner is through deregulation. However, it is not clear how much the UK can get away with before the EU will inflict tariffs to maintain a "level playing field". This may also lead to the erosion of workers rights and standards. Nobody has presented a clear economic argument for Brexit yet that does hit a major pitfall that I am aware of. But I would be happy to read about any if anybody has some sources or links.   

[SA Chris]

A bit like saying COVID has been great, look how well undertakers are doing out if it.

[tomtom]

A bit like saying COVID has been great, look how well estate agents are doing out if it.

[ali k]

I mean it's almost as if there are market forces at play as some ways of doing things change and the market finds new winners and losers 

I have no doubt you'll be able to point to some winners in all this Pete, but on balance do you think they will make up for the losses? Genuine question.

Another genuine question: now that we can see the shape of the trade deal, in good conscience do you think this outcome is what the majority of leave voters (not just you) wanted out of the Brexit referendum?

[seankenny]

I mean it's almost as if there are market forces at play

Increased barriers that distort trade =/= market forces.

 

as some ways of doing things change the government destroys viable businesses in pursuit of my favoured political choice and the market finds new winners and losers 

FTFY

[petejh]

What Tim said re scarpa repair.

I highly doubt you’d get anything done differently there, to here:
https://lancashiresportsrepairs.co.uk/mountaineering-boot-resoles/

But it’s just a suggestion.

[abarro81]

Perhaps they're just overly cautious in their caveats, but given that their rock shoe page says
"Although we do try to retain the original shape there are too many different manufacturers lasts for us to be able to obtain so this is not always possible."
and
"During the fitting of the toe patch it is not possible to replicate the original toe shape of the shoe."
I wouldn't back it to rival the Scarpa in-house job for rock shoes. I had a bunch of pairs of Booster S done by Scarpa recently (long turn around, ~2 months, sent before brexit but came back into the UK post-brexit) and they feel like a new shoe but having already done a couple of weeks of breaking in... Not tested in anger yet though. [Disclaimer: I didn't have to pay]

[Will Hunt]

Steady Pete, you're just a couple of posts away from suggesting toast and chips as an alternative to that nasty foreign pizza.

https://twitter.com/danielstorey85/status/1337165198118031360?s=20

[petejh]

Nissan will have to move battery manufacture to the UK from Japan so that over 55% of the vehicles' material value originates in the UK and they can still import to Europe tariff free. That might work for them but I can't see that working for all manufacturers hoping to stay competitive in tougher export market conditions. You can always find evidence of companies doing well in apparent market headwinds but the reality is that when you increase trade friction for small exporters they are likely to lose a significant part of their market or go under. Brexit is not and cannot be beneficial for them in anyway on average (some will compete to corner more of the domestic market and reclaim lost sales they originally made to the EU). The only way we can become more competitive after putting up trade barriers with our nearest and largest trading partner is through deregulation. However, it is not clear how much the UK can get away with before the EU will inflict tariffs to maintain a "level playing field". This may also lead to the erosion of workers rights and standards. Nobody has presented a clear economic argument for Brexit yet that does hit a major pitfall that I am aware of. But I would be happy to read about any if anybody has some sources or links.

I’m not sure how any of that is relevant to the evidence for British EV battery production seeing strong growth, and yes I’m aware it’s due to the new trade regs changing in 2024 (I’m up 100% on Ilika in one month as a result).
I mean it’s a bit like saying ‘we think everything will be worse overall, so that thing that’s doing really well doesn’t count’.

I fail to see what’s not to be celebrated in the example I’ve just  given: British company, grown from UK university research, producing innovative new tech for EVs and medical devices, growing strongly because it benefits from market conditions created as a result of the brexit trade agreement’s rules on point of origin for parts. And the bigger picture of innovative car manufacturers who make EVs in the UK saying they’ve benefited (while laggards like Ford, who don’t, haven’t).

Edit: BTW the speculative among you may want to look at a Canadian company called Cornish Metals when they float next month on the London market. Tin’s a commodity under supply pressure from increased demand from various new green tech (including chip boards in bitcoin mining machines). The Crofty South tin mine in Cornwall is reopening and expected to be very profitable as a local supplier to UK and EU industries.
But you probably don’t want to hear about that success story either.

Whatever your thoughts are on brexit, they’re pretty much irrelevant as it’s happened. The market landscape will adjust to it. Some companies will suffer, others will prosper.

Hopefully I don’t need to point out the completely absurd logic of comparing the success of British companies involved in the manufacture of innovate EV batteries that will revolutionise the next generation of EV due to rules that mean batteries need to be produced locally, to undertakers doing well from covid. Is anyone really *that* churlish?

AliK, I honestly don’t have an informed opinion yet as I don’t know the details.

[petejh]

Perhaps they're just overly cautious in their caveats, but given that their rock shoe page says
"Although we do try to retain the original shape there are too many different manufacturers lasts for us to be able to obtain so this is not always possible."
and
"During the fitting of the toe patch it is not possible to replicate the original toe shape of the shoe."
I wouldn't back it to rival the Scarpa in-house job for rock shoes. I had a bunch of pairs of Booster S done by Scarpa recently (long turn around, ~2 months, sent before brexit but came back into the UK post-brexit) and they feel like a new shoe but having already done a couple of weeks of breaking in... Not tested in anger yet though. [Disclaimer: I didn't have to pay]

Ah yeah I misread TT’s post as meaning boots needing resole, not shoes.
Agree - send them to Italy! Or Llanberis resoles but he’s not doing them afaik. There’s reportedly a good place in Cornudella too.

[Oldmanmatt]

Nissan will have to move battery manufacture to the UK from Japan so that over 55% of the vehicles' material value originates in the UK and they can still import to Europe tariff free. That might work for them but I can't see that working for all manufacturers hoping to stay competitive in tougher export market conditions. You can always find evidence of companies doing well in apparent market headwinds but the reality is that when you increase trade friction for small exporters they are likely to lose a significant part of their market or go under. Brexit is not and cannot be beneficial for them in anyway on average (some will compete to corner more of the domestic market and reclaim lost sales they originally made to the EU). The only way we can become more competitive after putting up trade barriers with our nearest and largest trading partner is through deregulation. However, it is not clear how much the UK can get away with before the EU will inflict tariffs to maintain a "level playing field". This may also lead to the erosion of workers rights and standards. Nobody has presented a clear economic argument for Brexit yet that does hit a major pitfall that I am aware of. But I would be happy to read about any if anybody has some sources or links.

I’m not sure how any of that is relevant to the evidence for British EV battery production seeing strong growth, and yes I’m aware it’s due to the new trade regs changing in 2024 (I’m up 100% on Ilika in one month as a result).
I mean it’s a bit like saying ‘we think everything will be worse overall, so that thing that’s doing really well doesn’t count’.

I fail to see what’s not to be celebrated in the example I’ve just  given: British company, grown from UK university research, producing innovative new tech for EVs and medical devices, growing strongly because it benefits from market conditions created as a result of the brexit trade agreement’s rules on point of origin for parts. And the bigger picture of innovative car manufacturers who make EVs in the UK saying they’ve benefited (while laggards like Ford, who don’t, haven’t).

Whatever your thoughts are on brexit, they’re pretty much irrelevant as it’s happened. The market landscape will adjust to it. Some companies will suffer, others will prosper.

Hopefully I don’t need to point out the completely absurd logic of comparing the success of British companies involved in the manufacture of innovate EV batteries that will revolutionise the next generation of EV due to rules that mean batteries need to be produced locally, to undertakers doing well from covid. Is anyone really *that* churlish?

AliK, I honestly don’t have an informed opinion yet as I don’t know the details.

Dude!

You compared EV Battery production success, on a thread moaning about new, Brexit induced customs and shipping woes, as what?

A salve?

Then complained that people refuting the benefits of your salve, are somehow being contrarian? Yet you’re not?

You made my day. Hilarious!
Full on Monty Python there.

😉😜

[petejh]

Ha! I know it’s gone off topic, but I found it funny the that someone was pissed off that it was harder to send their jacket to Spain for repair, when there’s a great company just up the road that specialises in doing same.

[tomtom]

Ha! I know it’s gone off topic, but I found it funny the that someone was pissed off that it was harder to send their jacket to Spain for repair, when there’s a great company just up the road that specialises in doing same.

Actually Pete - I was asking how hard it was.... when 1 month ago the two acts (local/spain) would have been identical.

Whatever your thoughts are on brexit, they’re pretty much irrelevant as it’s happened.

Perhaps follow your own advice Pete?

[JohnM]

Nissan will have to move battery manufacture to the UK from Japan so that over 55% of the vehicles' material value originates in the UK and they can still import to Europe tariff free. That might work for them but I can't see that working for all manufacturers hoping to stay competitive in tougher export market conditions. You can always find evidence of companies doing well in apparent market headwinds but the reality is that when you increase trade friction for small exporters they are likely to lose a significant part of their market or go under. Brexit is not and cannot be beneficial for them in anyway on average (some will compete to corner more of the domestic market and reclaim lost sales they originally made to the EU). The only way we can become more competitive after putting up trade barriers with our nearest and largest trading partner is through deregulation. However, it is not clear how much the UK can get away with before the EU will inflict tariffs to maintain a "level playing field". This may also lead to the erosion of workers rights and standards. Nobody has presented a clear economic argument for Brexit yet that does hit a major pitfall that I am aware of. But I would be happy to read about any if anybody has some sources or links.

I’m not sure how any of that is relevant to the evidence for British EV battery production seeing strong growth, and yes I’m aware it’s due to the new trade regs changing in 2024 (I’m up 100% on Ilika in one month as a result).
I mean it’s a bit like saying ‘we think everything will be worse overall, so that thing that’s doing really well doesn’t count’.

I fail to see what’s not to be celebrated in the example I’ve just  given: British company, grown from UK university research, producing innovative new tech for EVs and medical devices, growing strongly because it benefits from market conditions created as a result of the brexit trade agreement’s rules on point of origin for parts. And the bigger picture of innovative car manufacturers who make EVs in the UK saying they’ve benefited (while laggards like Ford, who don’t, haven’t).

Edit: BTW the speculative among you may want to look at a Canadian company called Cornish Metals when they float next month on the London market. Tin’s a commodity under supply pressure from increased demand from various new green tech (including chip boards in bitcoin mining machines). The Crofty South tin mine in Cornwall is reopening and expected to be very profitable as a local supplier to UK and EU industries.
But you probably don’t want to hear about that success story either.

Whatever your thoughts are on brexit, they’re pretty much irrelevant as it’s happened. The market landscape will adjust to it. Some companies will suffer, others will prosper.

Hopefully I don’t need to point out the completely absurd logic of comparing the success of British companies involved in the manufacture of innovate EV batteries that will revolutionise the next generation of EV due to rules that mean batteries need to be produced locally, to undertakers doing well from covid. Is anyone really *that* churlish?

AliK, I honestly don’t have an informed opinion yet as I don’t know the details.

You are still just using a single example to support your POV. I am yet to see any evidence that leaving the largest single market and customs union in the world is going to be beneficial to our economy from an aggregated market POV. I don't expect data yet and would not look at data until after 5 years or more so that market shocks (i.e. Covid, adjustment to new trade regs) can be removed from the signal. All I want is to see an article or opinion piece from an economist that explains why leaving single market will be beneficial in the medium to long term. I have had a look but it simply doesn't exist. I don't disagree that the UK can out compete a lot of the EU market in areas such as Fintech, Insuretech, AI and maybe like you say the EV sector but I can't see how that is going to benefit 95% of the rest of the economy. 

[seankenny]

The thing with this battery factory which I don't quite get is that it was originally supposed to be in South Wales, announced in July 2020 when no one knew what the Brexit deal would be. Plans changed and it was announced it would be in Sunderland instead, but announced in Dec 2020 before the Brexit deal was agreed. It looks awfully like something staying as planned is being spun as a success, in part by a company that is receiving a nice, politically motivated government subsidy. So far, so free market.

I also have no sense of how big the European market is, how big other factories are, and so on, ie are battery manufacturers investing less here than they might do otherwise because we're starting to exit European supply chains? It's hard to tell.

Still, however exciting this is, it doesn't change the fact that 70% of the UK's exports are in services which are poorly served by the Brexit arrangment, indeed apparently this aspect of negotiations is unfinished. The idea that Brexit has "happened" is nothing but an attempt by those who brought us a pyrrhic victory to close down criticism of their project.

[petejh]

Nissan will have to move battery manufacture to the UK from Japan so that over 55% of the vehicles' material value originates in the UK and they can still import to Europe tariff free. That might work for them but I can't see that working for all manufacturers hoping to stay competitive in tougher export market conditions. You can always find evidence of companies doing well in apparent market headwinds but the reality is that when you increase trade friction for small exporters they are likely to lose a significant part of their market or go under. Brexit is not and cannot be beneficial for them in anyway on average (some will compete to corner more of the domestic market and reclaim lost sales they originally made to the EU). The only way we can become more competitive after putting up trade barriers with our nearest and largest trading partner is through deregulation. However, it is not clear how much the UK can get away with before the EU will inflict tariffs to maintain a "level playing field". This may also lead to the erosion of workers rights and standards. Nobody has presented a clear economic argument for Brexit yet that does hit a major pitfall that I am aware of. But I would be happy to read about any if anybody has some sources or links.

I’m not sure how any of that is relevant to the evidence for British EV battery production seeing strong growth, and yes I’m aware it’s due to the new trade regs changing in 2024 (I’m up 100% on Ilika in one month as a result).
I mean it’s a bit like saying ‘we think everything will be worse overall, so that thing that’s doing really well doesn’t count’.

I fail to see what’s not to be celebrated in the example I’ve just  given: British company, grown from UK university research, producing innovative new tech for EVs and medical devices, growing strongly because it benefits from market conditions created as a result of the brexit trade agreement’s rules on point of origin for parts. And the bigger picture of innovative car manufacturers who make EVs in the UK saying they’ve benefited (while laggards like Ford, who don’t, haven’t).

Edit: BTW the speculative among you may want to look at a Canadian company called Cornish Metals when they float next month on the London market. Tin’s a commodity under supply pressure from increased demand from various new green tech (including chip boards in bitcoin mining machines). The Crofty South tin mine in Cornwall is reopening and expected to be very profitable as a local supplier to UK and EU industries.
But you probably don’t want to hear about that success story either.

Whatever your thoughts are on brexit, they’re pretty much irrelevant as it’s happened. The market landscape will adjust to it. Some companies will suffer, others will prosper.

Hopefully I don’t need to point out the completely absurd logic of comparing the success of British companies involved in the manufacture of innovate EV batteries that will revolutionise the next generation of EV due to rules that mean batteries need to be produced locally, to undertakers doing well from covid. Is anyone really *that* churlish?

AliK, I honestly don’t have an informed opinion yet as I don’t know the details.

You are still just using a single example to support your POV. I am yet to see any evidence that leaving the largest single market and customs union in the world is going to be beneficial to our economy from an aggregated market POV. I don't expect data yet and would not look at data until after 5 years or more so that market shocks (i.e. Covid, adjustment to new trade regs) can be removed from the signal. All I want is to see an article or opinion piece from an economist that explains why leaving single market will be beneficial in the medium to long term. I have had a look but it simply doesn't exist. I don't disagree that the UK can out compete a lot of the EU market in areas such as Fintech, Insuretech, AI and maybe like you say the EV sector but I can't see how that is going to benefit 95% of the rest of the economy. 

I really am not you know.
But you’re using a presumption about my POV, to support your argument!
I’ve never said I believed brexit would have anything other than a net negative effect on GDP in the short term.
If anyone can be arsed checking back what I’ve said about it on here they’ll see that’s I’ve accepted that’s what the evidence suggests. - there are conflicting studies, but I believe the weight of evidence shows GDP will be lower in the short term than it otherwise would.

I didn’t support brexit because I thought it would boost the UK’s GDP in the short or medium term - I mean it might, but that would be against expectations. We’re the 5/6th largest economy in the world, and the economy is massively unequal and has been even during the EU ‘golden years’ as many would have them. Brexit isn’t going to do much either way for the person at the bottom. Most people won’t be noticeably worse or better off financially.

I was in favour of it for reasons of political accountability to the populace, which is what I’ve always said.

All I’m pointing out here is that it isn’t all bad for businesses, there will be winners. I intend to do well out of them : )

[ali k]

I didn’t support brexit because I thought it would boost the UK’s GDP in the short or medium term...I was in favour of it for reasons of political accountability to the populace, which is what I’ve always said.

I’ve heard this argument quite a few times now. Putting aside the fact I don’t believe for one second that once the Govt can’t blame the EU for its failures it won’t find someone/something else to blame (though I’m sure we’ll hear how we’re being ‘punished’ by the EU for leaving for a good few years yet).

As an intelligent guy, it seems quite an extreme reaction to support doing your country serious economic damage in order to try and gain ‘political accountability’ somehow. Rather than, say, supporting electoral reform.

[teestub]

It’s just another catastratunity for Pete to make some money out of.

[SA Chris]

All I’m pointing out here is that it isn’t all bad for businesses, there will be winners. I intend to do well out of them : )

Good for you Mr Rees Mogg

[mrjonathanr]

I was in favour of it for reasons of political accountability to the populace, which is what I’ve always said.

Absolutely. We want proper British prorogations of parliament, none of these foreign versions.

[galpinos]

A bit like saying COVID has been great, look how well estate agents are doing out if it.

I am assuming you saw the furore over our local estate agent's ad campaign?

[tomtom]

A bit like saying COVID has been great, look how well estate agents are doing out if it.

I am assuming you saw the furore over our local estate agent's ad campaign?

Indeed! That’s what made me post!!

[Oldmanmatt]

A bit like saying COVID has been great, look how well estate agents are doing out if it.

I am assuming you saw the furore over our local estate agent's ad campaign?

Indeed! That’s what made me post!!

Is there an explanation forthcoming?
Must we plead?
Pray tell! Forsooth!

[galpinos]

"Has Covid been a blessing in disguise for Chorlton and Old Trafford?"

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/manchester-estate-agent-criticised-tone-19695332

[Oldmanmatt]

 

"Has Covid been a blessing in disguise for Chorlton and Old Trafford?"

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/manchester-estate-agent-criticised-tone-19695332