Another value play that I'd love to invest in but can't is UAN. At least I can't invest in my ISA, I think I could over the phone into my general account but can't be bothered with the CGT that will likely result. It's a US nitrogen fertiliser company called CVR Partners (ticker UAN). They're benefitting from higher prices in the US market but also a number of factors coming together at the current time, including the current nat gas price hikes in Europe making fertiliser imports to the US more expensive, and unrest and sanctions in Ukraine/Belarus/Russia shutting down nitrogen fertiliser exports from those areas. Check out this value thesis underwritten by a large dividend, with a double (or higher) in sp growth thrown in. It's quite compelling:https://plumcapital.substack.com/p/uan-plums-best-commodities-play
Here's a wealth preservation tip for anyone owning commodity companies in a rising trend right now..Learning some basic charting will prove v.useful for helping to stay focussed and not getting ruffled by volatility. A useful tactic for stocks in strong uptrends (pf flex incoming..) i.e. many oil/gas companies, Alphamin, Filo, MLX, Centauras Metals, Mosiac, CVR Partners, Altius Minerals, Glencore, Whitehaven, GGP (until they weren't).. is to zoom out on the timescale to observe the monthly timeline - continue holding shares in strong uptrends until price closes below the 12-month moving average. Sometimes price will spike down through the 12 month MA on an intra-period timescale, but not close out the period below the 12MA (hence may continue rising after you may have sold out). For the really committed there are lots of other signals you can learn to help stack the odds in your favour of identifying when uptrends and downtrends are ending, but price crossing the 12MA is an easy one to spot for anyone. You can get tradingview for free to do this.
I see First Tin has done it's IPO and is available. Good play?
There we are, one market close later and a 30% day for Filo (7.5% for AFM). Can't keep stories like these down for very long even in bear markets. Hope someone took advantage.
Edit, double post.
Interested in Whitehaven Coal but not seeing the stock on HL - where are you guys buying it?
Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) has reported a record net profit after tax (NPAT) of $2.0 billion for the yearended 30 June 2022, and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of$3.1 billion, which is a significant increase on the $204.5 million of EBITDA in the prior year.Whitehaven’s FY22 results highlights also include:• Record revenue of $4.9 billion underpinned by an achieved average coal price of A$325/t (comparedwith $1.56 billion revenue and A$95/t average price in the prior year)• Cash generated from operations of $2.6 billion compared with $169.5 million in the prior year.• During FY22, all senior bank debt was repaid and $1.0 billion of net cash was held on the balance sheet at30 June 2022, versus $808.5 million of net debt at 30 June 2021.• A fully franked final dividend of 40 cents per share will be paid on 16 September, taking the full yeardividend to 48 cents per share.• After announcing a 10% on-market share buy-back in February 2022, 76.37 million shares (or ~7% ofissued share capital) were bought back in H2 FY22 for an average price of $4.75 and a total investment of$362.6 million. • In H1 FY23, Whitehaven aims to complete the 10% buy-back within the previously announced cap of $550 million. • The Board will seek shareholder approval to increase its share buy-back programme at the Company’s Annual General Meeting in October.
Commenting on FY23 market outlook and guidance, Mr Flynn added:“Demand for high-quality seaborne thermal coal is expected to remain strong throughout FY23 and high-CVcoal prices should continue to be well supported.“We expect to deliver higher ROM production and coal sales in FY23 compared with FY22, and we are focusedon maximising margins including managing inflationary cost pressures.
I opened a short-term trade in Adriatic Metals @ £1.15 on recent weakness. Technically it was showing a divergence on the macd-h, had hit a significant fib retracement level, had dipped below a long-term support/resistance level (@ 1.20) and was showing oversold on the rsi. With those signals and knowing the company fundamentals well I can be fairly confident that it's probably bottomed barring any catastrophic event. ... I have other needs for my invested money so my plan is to sell for a short-term 10% profit which, if the rebound momentum continues in silver's spot price (movement in silver tends to move Adriatic) then I expect to hit my target in the next 2 weeks. If silver goes on a rip I'll hold a bit longer but doubt I'd hold beyond autumn.
If we say buy-backs are achieved @ an average share price of, say, A$10 (but pick a price between 6 and 11) and a buy-back fund is announced of, say, A$650, then that's another 650 million shares removed from shares on issue